israel. that will be one to watch in the morning, too. and we get flash pmis, as well. >> what questions are there out of their earnings that might reflect what's happening in the macro? >> for the industrials? >> just the industrials, i mean -- >> yeah, you're talking about big multinational conglomerates that touch different businesses, different end markets across different parts of the world. so -- and of course, we -- okay, well, that's it for us. >> find out tomorrow. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. falling at 5%. the ten-year yield topping 5% early this morning, but then dropping, doing an about-face, nearly 20-basis point intraday move. we'll debate that. plus, targeting foxconn. chinese authorities are investigating the apple iphone maker over taxes and land use. is this beijing flexing its muscle against taiwan and the

united states? we'll get the latest. and later, the chart master will be along to break down his list of stocks that are stuck in a bear trap. he'll tell us how investors can break free from these unbearable names. >> oh, man. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, guy academy, julie biel and mike khouw. we start with the markets. the benchmark treasury hitting 5.02% early this morning, a new 16-plus year high, but then falling 17 basis points from those levels. it was the third day in a row it closed below that mark. one sector of the market in particular seemed to like the yield move, and that would be megacap tech. look at the gains in names like meta, amazon, microsoft and alphabet, all of which report earnings this week. can the momentum keep going or should you be worried about what the results are do to the

stocks? a really interesting move in the bond market today. >> 100%. when you see a 16 basis point move over the course of a few minutes, that's a staggering move. listen, i'm not pretending to know what's in bill's held. great trade, number one. he totally nailed it. but number two, i think he looks over the landscape and says, okay, a couple of things are happening. the economy seems to be slowing and the potential for geopolitical risk is escalating with each passing day. both of those, in my opinion, would make yields go lower. the risk/reward probably doesn't make sense here. i'm going to take off the trade. good for him. i don't think, though, he top ticked this one. i still think rates are going to move higher on the supply side of things. so, might take a couple weeks now, given what's transpiring, maybe some of the unwind, but i think yields are headed higher. i understand why he's doing it, but i don't think he's going to mark the top in yields. >> higher after the issuance is digested? >> i believe so. >> what do you think? >> the things that have caused

yields to move higher have hardly changed. bill has been outspoken at different points. and i just think you got to place, and jim bianco was c calling for this move, i think the pause makes a ton of sense. we have equity markets this week that possibly, if you believe that some of these big names could disappoint a bit, we're going to get into that, too, that would be bond friendly, because these have been, you know, the telltales on the broader economy, which could worry you, and why yields have been going higher. the ten-year jgb closed at a cycle high. weekend press was that they are going to give up that 1% barrier. i think that the distortion in the japanese bond market has a lot to do with keeping yields down globally, and i think that's something that you really have to worry about. in fact, that is the biggest risk on the upside to u.s. treasuries outside of some kind of extraordinary issuance dynamic we don't hear about. because what bill ackman is talking about, are risks that are safe haven drivers for u.s.

treasuries. we look at what the markets did last week, doesn't surprise me we got a kick-back again today. we saw the qqqs, i think the charts on a lot of those megacap tech stocks look decent. as much as it's been easy to say they're holding the linchpin what we're going to hear this week, those numbers are going to be right down the fairway. there are risks, but i think that's part of how you're playing this. you're not getting short these names, you are probably figuring out where you want to be long them and short other parts of the market. >> mike, how are you feelinging a megacap tech? and if yields are at least in the short-term at a high, or, at a peak of some sort, then is that sort of an all-clear for at least this trade to continue for a little bit longer? >> i don't know. the options market isn't really signaling an all-clear on the rate side first. i mean, for nose who are following along at home and want to look at how long bonds behave, treasuries, that is, just look to tlt. that's trading with a significantly higher options

premium than spy is. so, right now, as far as the options market is concerned, treasuryies are farisingier, an that's an environment where stocks haven't been calm, either. one of the things i also thought that was interesting, tail end of last year, you know, that's when we started to see a beaten up sector all of a sudden roll over again, and that was financials from mid-tuesday to the end of the week, and we saw some areas of strength in sort of the higher beta and growth areas, which suggests to me that investors are more interested in idiosyncratic growth than making a broader macro bet. what we're seeing in the bond market should be cause for some concern, looking ahead. >> julie? >> yeah, i agree. absolutely. i think that it's becoming more and more of a stock picker's market, where before we just dumped so much money on the economy, that everything was working pretty well, because our consumer is so healthy and now we're really separating the men from the boys or whatever

metaphor you want to use. and that's really starting to play out. and you're seeing with earnings, you're seeing that in general, though expectations on sell side estimates are low, i think on bye side, people have been pretty disappointed with ho-hum results. you need to not just report a new quarter, you need to clearly show strong guidance and not a lot of companies feel really confident to do that. and what's happening in the bond market is not giving them any kind of comfort whatsoever. just the volatility is really enough to keep people on the sidelines holding their breath. >> so, we thought it would be an interesting question to ask you guys, the traders, which stocks, which megacap tech stocks you are most concerned about going into earnings, especially since we have a huge slate this week. and interestingly, guy and mike agreed on one name, and that would be that's gained the most in the past quarter, that would be meta. why? >> not an indictment on facebook at all. valuation at this level is trading at a market multiple, probably 18 times next year's numbers. and you have revenue and eps

growth to back that up, probably should be a higher multiple. i'm worried because, if you think about who their advertisers are, smam, ill, medium-sized businesseses . the russell is rolling over if there's a lag or a delay or a push forward in terms of their advertising dollars, facebook will be the first one to feel it. so, if you start to get some, i don't know, rhetoric or some talk around that slowdown, that could auger potentially poorly for the broader market, which is why i'm looking at facebook, in terms of the tell for the broader economy. >> mike, why did you pick meta? >> i picked it actually, part of that, i think, is some of the same reasons that guy was just talking about. there's another one, too, which is, what is management going to do? people often talk about some of these companies as having levers they can pull to turn on or off profitability, to turn on or off free cash flow. this is a company that demonstrated they have those levers and they have used them.

that's a positive, in one sense. it's a negative when they elect to start pursuing things like the metaverse and throwing buckets of money at it and you see free cash flow drop to near zero. and that's what caused this swoon. so, if we start to see management start talking once again about investing in some of their visionary projects, that, i think, is a potential risk. but the company is very cheap, if they don't do that, and even with some of the pressures that guy was just talking about, you know, they might actually get some flow from x, for example, which is obviously changed their algorithms and some of the content cray toeators turn to t products. >> amazon, on the retail side, it is enterprise spending on the aws side of things, julie. >> yeah, and part of it, too, for them, it's a little bit -- they don't have quite as many variable costs as something like a meta. so, i worry more about the level

of kind of cap x investment hard dollars slowing out of that business in order to be as competitive as they can be in a.i. i think there's a little bit of a center margin for them. no pun intendedintended, on bei to weather any kind of storm in enterprise spending or the consumer. generally speaking, big cap tech has earned its premium multiples, broadly speaking, right, because you are exposed to secular growth trends, they are in businesses where it really pays to be big, but this is the one that i think this is the most that is most exposed to the consumer. >> i think d-1 is microsoft and apple. >> division one. he's calling us the jv and he's the -- >> i'm not calling you the jv, per se, but those companies -- it's microsoft. it's the second-most important company in the world. it's the company that, to me, is in touch with the enterprise. they were the one that really almost even started the a.i. frenzy on some level with

chatgpt. they're the one that i think is the most resilient business model and one of the charts that along with apple, at the end of october and the beginning of october, really started to scare everyone. their chart has done better than apple's. the biggest issue with microsoft is not that the earnings numbers are going to be difficult. azure has been guided to mid 20s growth. it's that the street wants to be at 35 times on this. and that's, relative to history that's expensive. it's the second-most important company in the world, the second-biggest certainly in terms of market cap. that's d-1. that's the one that has the most on the line. >> for more, let's bring in jim bianco. great to have you with us. he warned, by the way, on "fast money" earlier this month that bond yields could race through 5% in the next couple of weeks, now believes they can go even higher, despite today's reversal. how high are we talking about, jim? >> well, if the yield curve is going to uninvert and that seems to be what it's doing and that

means that the highest point in the yield curve will eventually become long-term interest rates, which is normal, well, the highest point in the yield curve right now is six-month bills at 5.5%. so, if we're going to completely uninvert the yield curve and i think we're destined to do that, somewhere along those lines, then it's got to go to 5.5%. because the fed has said that they're higher for longer. so, i don't think that this move is quite over with just yet. i know everybody keeps asking me when the move is going to be over with, but i think that the probable that everybody faces is, they forgot the 2009 to 2020 was the qe abnormal. they say, my god, we've come up 500 basis points, that's a lot, it's going to hurt things -- no, the first several hundred of that was getting to a level of neutral. the last little bit of it has been restrictive. i don't think it's been restrictive enough to really hurt the economy. that's why later this week,

we're going to probably report a 4% gdp, after we had some pretty good numbers with jobs and with unemployment claims going under 200,000, so -- we're not really punishing the economy, and that's why i think the markets have room for rates to continue to move higher. >> laying out the case to 5.5%, jim, you didn't mention treasury issuancy, the bank of japan, i'm wondering how that factors in. >> well, they don't help the situation, you know, treasury issuance is going to be a shift from short-term to long-term, so it's not that we're going to be issuing more than what we've expected, it's that we issued a lot of treasury bills after the debt ceiling was lifted, that was four, five months ago. now they're maturing. and the treasury wants to kind of issue more three-year, five-year, ten-year notes. so, that's going to help put upward pressure on long rates. the bank of japan, remember now, japanese are the largest foreign holder of treasury securities in the world. not china.

so, if they are going toll loosen up and let their rates go up, japanese investors are going to say, you know what? our own jgb, japanese government bonds, look more attractive. they'll move back to japan, and then we're going to see a dampening of demand. >> hey, jim, tim. i agree with that. but great call a couple weeks ago on the show, three weeks ago, you said they're going higher, they've gone higher. you have pointed out you think you it's not just the bank of japan, its that a lot of investors were onboard with this recession environment and people have capitulated. that's the term i've heard you use. talk to me about that. where do you think positioning is now? because seems to me like everybody thinks yields are going higher, even though it's a conversation you were having a few weeks ago, and certainly a couple months ago, this isn't where people were, they weren't talking about 4% gdp. how much is this something that actually might be why we could get more of a pause right now?

>> well, yeah, i think that, you know, the problem with positioning is, there's been talk and what people say and everybody says it's going to go higher. then, if you look at the way that people are positioned, i like to joke that they're up at night staring at the ceiling, going, there's going to be a bond rally without me. that's why you see this flow in the tlt. and that's why you see the relentless amount of call buying in tlt in the last month, there's been a million and a half calls purchased in tlt and something like 400,000 puts. that's why you continue to see surveys like the bank of america global fund manager survey having the highest amount of people in the 20-year history saying the next 100 basis point move is going to be lower. so, that's why i say that there's got to be some kind of capitulation. everybody is waiting, begging, they're trying to position for this big decline in interest rates, and it doesn't happen, and they keep getting punished while they're waiting for it, and we all know, the way markets work is when it happens is when

no one's positioned for it. and so, i still think that there's got to be more capitulation in this bond market, which is why i don't think this move is over. now, maybe for the next couple weeks we turn sideways around 5%, but ultimately, i think we're going to go higher and see a capitulation. >> jim, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> jim bianco, bianco research. 5.5% by jan 1. how does that factor into seasonality, in terms of the santa claus rally? >> we're actually -- >> come on. can't we wait for halloween to get -- >> no. boo. >> that was one of the great episodes of all time. we should find that in the archive. i don't adhere to seasonality, but i'll play your reindeer game and say, if we see 5.5% over the next few weeks, the equity market will not like that and we will be -- where did we close, 43 and change? we will be testing 4,000, under those set of circumstances that jim just talked about. >> for the record, i was going

to ask you, where do stocks go with yields -- >> i'm in your head. i'm in your head. of course you did. >> all right, let's get the nvidia. reportedly planning to team up with arm to make chips for pcs. the news taking a bite out of intel and amd shares. kristina partsinevelos has the defails. >> well, reuters reporting that both nvidia and amd are looking to build the central processing units for personal computers by 2025. this is normally dominated by intel. nvidia dominates the gpu space, the graphic chips needed for a.i. models. cpu chips for nvidia would be a new avenue. they would use arm architecture, which is why arm jumped on the news. a lot of people get confused with the names -- think of arm like a coding language in which companies like ini vinvidia us design their own chips. that arm language is so good, it helps apple make custom chips for its mac computers. that means arm specializes in

the blueprint for these pc chips, but the problem is, so does intel, with its x-86 architecture. two languages, arm versus x-86. that's why intel posted its worst day in a month. amd plans to create a cpu chip using arm architecture, and yet the stock fell. why is that? amd already makes pc chips using intel's language. and so, there are fears that this new chip could cannibalize the old amd pc chip. qualcomm, another company that wasn't mentioned in this report, but they've been saying for quite some time that they, too, plan to build a pc chip. and we should get more details tomorrow at their annual summit around 3:00 p.m. all of these new pc chips, though, mean eroding market share for intel and that's why you see the negative reaction. nvidia, amd declined to comment. >> where does microsoft fit in? >> good point, too, these particular chips that nvidia would be working on would work with the microsoft in infrastructure, as well. >> so, get more details tomorrow, because there's going to be an event that microsoft is holding tomorrow to reveal some

more of the details here. what do you think of this? >> interesting. all right, so, go back to august, nvidia traded down to 409, huge bounce. go back to september, traded down to 409, huge bounce. what was the low today? >> 409, guy. >> thank you, tim, for playing. 409 again. and we bounced. so, you have something to trade against in the form of that level. big volume day, and let me be clear, i'm not bullish in nvidia, but the stock declared itself to have support, that's how you trade this name. >> can intel get through this, mike khouw? >> intel's got some problems. you know, it seemed like they were working their way out of it. they sort of went to sort of more business-focused management rather than product-focused management, didn't have the engineering team in the c-suite, and that proved to be a problem. one of the things i look to is, if you take a look at a new machine, once upon a time, they put a sticker on them, you may remember, everybody advertised

about having intel inside. everybody cares about the gpus. when you buy a newlaptop, it has an nvidia processor, it's going to say gtx force or something like that on it. if they start moving into intel's territory, i just find it very difficult to believe they're going to be able to fight their way out of that one easily. >> it's interesting to hear microsoft get in the fray, too. and say, hey, guys, i -- you better have the chips ready to power our new a.i. windows. and they have the ability to push this around. the only thing that's more extraordinary about nvidia's 3480% move or 180% move this year is, i think how it's held in. that 17% pull-back off of that kind of a move and the fact that semis, through a lot of difficult questions about the economy, valuations and what not, i think those charts are still holding up. i don't love all the good news we priced in there, i'm not telling you it's going up forever. based upon what the market has done, so far, you have to give that bounce off of -- >> 409. >> 409. >> formula 409.

>> funny you say that. formula 409. k.p., you use formula 409? >> i don't think it exists anymore. >> come on, tim. >> i think win ddex cleaned the clock. >> we'll find out in the break. >> kristina, nice to see you. coming up, more m&a action in the oil space. more on what the buyout could mean. plus, crypto cruising higher. bitcoin topping $31,000. and names in the space are jumping on that move. that's straight ahead. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

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shareholders. the stock dropping 4% while hess was down over 1% on the news. the announcement of the oil megamerger follows exxon's bid for pioneer natural. mike, what did you make of this deal? >> yeah, i mean, this is pretty interesting. obviously they're making a play for, you know, one of the industry leaders, and the entire space, he was indicating they feel like they're cheap to the market, they're very cheap to the market, and it's kind of interesting to me is that if you take a look at the big integrated players, exxon was the one that traded at a premium to the rest of the group. usually a turn over conoco. if you look at their valuations relative to their proven, you know, both developed and undeveloped reserves, these companies seem like they're reasonably priced to me here. though i will say that some of the offshore integrated oil companies are even cheaper. we don't happen to own any of the u.s. ones. we do own bp, and that's trading seven times. >> michael worth said something

else, there are too many ceos per billion barrel of oil equivalent, so, there should be more integration to come, julie, and i wonder if you are in the oil space at all here? >> no, i continue to not be in the oil space, just because it's really uncomfortable having all of your dependents on commodity, and right now,i would argue that oil is really being determined by a single human being in saudi arabia, and that is difficult to make an investable case for it. but i do think there's absolutely more to come for this space. you know, we -- the u.s. generally speaking is quite, quite explored, and pretty picked over, but there are so many of these smaller assets with proven reserves that i think these majors would really like to be able to scoop up, so, i think there's more to come. so, if anything, this is good news for the investment bankers. >> devin, marathon -- a lot of worths. chesapeake for southwest earn. >> i think this is reaffirmation of super cycle stuff.

the headline could be scary for folks that say, hey, look, they're at it again, they're trying to buy growth at all costs. they didn't overpay. 3% premium to the market on one of the most valuable assets. and their assets are some of the best high quality long-term assets. and that's what they're doing. they're increasing the dividend yield. we're going to go from 6% growth to 8% growth. this is why you're an investor, not a trader in energy names. i love the deal. >> report october 27th. remember, it was in february, they announced a $75 billion stock buy-back. chevron. great companies that trade at less than a market multiple. they should be trading more richer than they are and they're not. stocks go higher. here's what's coming up next. a big week for bitcoin, as the crypto keeps climbing. and some related names are riding the coat tails. the action in that space next. plus, a tax probe in china. as a key iphone supplier gets targeted. the impact it could have on apple's production, and what it

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welcome back. bitcoin rising 5% today, topping $31,000 for the first time since july. investors await news about a spot bitcoin etf. the optimism driving related stocks like marathon digital, microstrategy and grayscale bitcoin trust higher, as well. bitcoin's big bounce making waves among options traders today. mike, you're looking at coin base? >> yeah, this one traded more than two times its average daily call volume. calls outpaced puts by over 3 to

1. most of that activity concentrated in the weekly 80 strike calls. about 19,000 trading for just under $1.40 a contract. biler buyers betting that the bounce we saw today could continue. and marathon digital, riot, and microstrategy were among those names that saw significantly above average options activity on the bounces that we saw today. >> what do you think about coin ba coinbase, guy? >> at this level, i don't nokno $78 to $80 level, all you need is some incremental good news and the stock goes up 15%, 20%. we've seen it before, by the way, over the last couple weeks. i think robinhood, on november 7th, is interesting, as well. >> and the incremental good news, there are catalysts right and left for them. and i'm long coinbase from around these levels over the last three months. and i just think the correlation to the underlying is still too strong. there aren't the other options. they've had so much bad news

priced in, i kind of like that optionality. coming up, tax troubles in china. a major apple supplier under investigation. why regulators are targeting the manufacturer. plus, could next year's summer blockbuster season be in danger? the lasting impacts of the ongoing actors' strike and why it's crunchtime for the studios to make a deal. we'll have the details when "fast money" returns. and while everyone else is looking at the hot stock of the day, vector vest digs deep to find the real moneymakers, the ones you can win big with. timing is everything, so make the smart investing choice today and head to vectorvest.com for your risk free trial.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks finishing mixed to kick off the week. the dow falling 200 points. the s&p down 0.2%, but the nasdaq snapping a four-day losing streak, up nearly 0.3%. fmc corp slashing guidance. the company launching a cost structure review. that stock is down more than 53% this year. walgreens jumping more than 3% after an upgrade to overweight. t jpmorgan saying today kicks off a new era for the stock, as a new ceo steps in. shares are down more than 41% this year. and chinese stocks continuing to sell off. the cis 300 index hitting its lowest level since february of 2019. and speaking of china, apple supplier foxconn coming under increased scrutiny by authorities there. the company says it will

cooperate with the government following a report that officials are conducting tax audit inspections and reviewing land use of foxconn subsidiaries. this is coming against a backdrop of mounting political and competitive pressures, but the company's founder also running in taiwan's upcoming presidential elections. let's get more on the potential impact with dewardcic mcneal. why does thechinese government want to torpedo terry go's candidacy? >> let's step back and start with the investigation, they claim it's for land use violations. there may be some there there, but as you point out, melissa, this strikes me as a politically motivated investigation into a foxconn subsidiary in china. and the timing is unique here, melissa. we're about two months away from a very critical presidential election in taiwan, and the

founder of foxconn is a declared candidate. and in his august announcement, melissa, he was pressed by the press, they asked him, do you feel like you would be pressured by china, given how important china is to foxconn? and he pushed back pretty aggressively and say, a, he would not be bullied by china. he cited the important customers he had, naming apple and amazon and tesla, and said, melissa, it would be up to the chinese government to explain to the world why these very important company supply chains were impacted by their action. very reminiscent of the jack ma october 2020 comments, and we all know how that went down. and then finally, foxconn has made a big showing over the last two-plus years of diversifying their supply chains outside of china. here in the u.s. and wisconsin and ohio. and the ceo recently said that india could account for up to

20% to 30% of foxconn's manufacturing base. so, these sorts of statements are not going to go unnoticed by the central government in china, melissa. so, i suspect some of this, we are seeing is sort of a -- an attempt to really fire a shot over the bow for mr. gou. >> in your notes, really fascinating statement, or, you said tough talk in washington, sweet talk in beijing, seems to be kind of what's going on, and this dichotomy is fascinating. do you think there is tough talk, pressure on u.s. corporations to hold ground, to hold up at least, you know, american democratic principles in terms of doing business around the world, on those companies? and we were talking last week, we were all talking last week about tim cook's visit to china, and also, the jon stewart show taking a shot at china and why maybe that show was pulled. there is pressure on u.s.

corporates anywhere in this country to act a little bit -- to act more definitive in terms of america democratic principles around the world? >> well, certainly, i don't think that that's an official government position, tim, but to your point, we have seen customers, we've seen shareholders, really take a look at how countries behave and where companies are invested, and to try to put some pressure on companies to have some principles and standards. but in china, there seems to be a bit of a double standard here, as you know. many companies fall behind, following the local guidelines and local laws. but the real challenge, tim, is when chinese laws are in contradiction withu.s. or other laws, which ones take precedent? and companies are in a tough spot trying to figure that out. if they act one way, there could be repercussions in china, if they act another way, there could be repercussions here.

i don't envy herethem here, but everyone is paying attention to values and human rights and how national security is impacting the business bottom line. >> we've seen a bank run in china, they cut their deposit rates, banks for the third time this year. government stimulus package, tax cuts, all suggest their company is racheting, not to a halt, but slowing down. that scares me, because i think when economies slow down, the next thing is, how do we get ourselves out? what you are your thoughts in terms of this china/taiwan situation, which continues to flare up? >> well, i think, to your point, this is -- it's always there, so, we may pay attention to it and these sort of flashpoints and flareups, as you described it, but this issue is always right there, above the surface here. this latest round, i think, just says to me that china is concerned about this upcoming presidential election, it looks like for now, at least, the

current ruling party, the dpp, will win that election again, that's not an outcome that china favors, so, i think businesses shouldn't take their eye off the taiwan ball. i don't expect that there's going to be any sort of an invasion scenario, but we're going to continue to see pressure and tension ramp up, the closer we get 0 the january election. >> dewardric, great to get your take. thank you. >> thank you, melissa. >> what we saw in apple shares today, we saw pressure relative to the megacap tech stocks. it underperformed, though finished the day higher. snapped what would have been its longest losing streak since january '22. we've said on this desk for a very long time that china or beijing just seeded to decide that it wanted to poke apple, you could really feel the impact, and here we are. >> yeah, i mean, it's interesting, obviously, in gou's case, a situation where essentially throwing down the gauntlet and that's always a

dangerous thing, when you're dealing with governments, even free liberal and open and democratic ones, that's a dangerous exercise. we've certainly seen in saudi arabia arabia, we've seen in russia, and we've seen in china that challenging more autocratic governments is an even bigger risk. so, that presents a risk somewhat to apple. but if i'm thinking about apple, and tim was kind of eluding to this, they have plenty of risks, including this, as we look forward towards their earnings, which we're going to be seeing in november. coming up, you might be pining away for this past summer, but movie stew owes are looking ahead to next year. but with actors still on strike, the 2024 blockbuster season is facing some heavy pressure. we've got the latest on the negotiations, next. and you won't believe how muchon mey taylor swift's concert film pulled in after its second weekend. the stunning stats, when "fast money" returns.

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agile and liquid. a proven protector. an ever-evolving enabler of bold decisions. an asset more relevant than ever before. gold. your strategic advantage. welcome back to "fast money." could movie stew owes s could movie stew tudios be in f cruel summer? with the actors' strike now surpassing 100 days, it is crunchtime for studios to get ready for next summer's blockbuster season. julia boorstin is here on set to explain. julia, welcome. >> so great to be here on set.

>> clap her in. >> you're right, melissa. the pressure is on, not just to salvage any television for the broadcasters this tv season, but to get a deal done in the next few weeks so that the studios can finish up their big blockbusters and get them ready for the next summer season, which technically starts for the box office in may. now, tomorrow, the alliance of studios are returning to the negotiating table after talks broke down about two weeks ago. a push for a deal is being led by four key ceos. bob iger, david zaslav, donna langley, and ted sarandos this comes at milken estimates that the hollywood work stoppage has had more than $6 billion in economic impact, and experts are warning that the cost to the industry couldn't just continue, but actually could accelerate if the actors don't get back to work. goldman sachs saying, quote, we expect that previously announced

2024-25 films could move dates as hollywood prioritizes ramping back up certain productions over others going into 2024, and this all depends on why the actors' strike is resolved. so, we're going to be listening very carefully in earnings calls for any commentary on the cost of the strikes. we'll hear that the media companies have saved on production, but we're going to be listening for impact on tv advertising, as well as, of course, box office revenue. >> yeah, so, what is sort of the window in which they have to resolve it in order to get that summer blockbuster slate out there? >> there will be movies next year though matter what. if you look at what it costs to finish some of these big films. some of them may be somewhat done, some may need a couple of reshoots or need actors to do voiceovers, but you want to have the certainty before you ramp up production and it takes a couple of weeks once you know that a deal is done to get production ready to go again and then to get actors back in -- on sets or

on location. so if you look at also the fact that in december things pretty much shut down, you want to get things started now so you can get a little bit of production done before the holidays. and then remember, if you are going to have a movie come out in, say, may, you need it really to be done months in advance of that. >> what are you listening for in the earnings calls to give us some clues as to what the costs will be? >> well, i think there's one question, which is, what does it cost to the tv -- the tv season this fall. broadcast television traditionally has a ton of new shows, we saw a lot of reality, fewer scripted shows, and sort of a shift of the broadcast season. we'll see if there's any commentary if that was a cost. and then we'll see if -- they're talking about the box office being lower, because they held back films and they didn't have movie stars around to promote the ones they did release. so, i think right now, there's going to be more commentary about cost savings. they weren't producing anything. they saved on that. but the long-term costs to the industry, you don't want to train audiences not to go to

theaters. and that's really the concern about summer 2024. >> and it seems like netflix has trained audiences to not expect traditional actors. what's the talk in hollywood behind the scenes as to who is in the pole position? or what are actors saying in terms of, boy, i feel left out? >> well, look. the real feeling in hollywood right now is, everyone wants to get back to work. but the actors want to make sure they secure enough gains to make it worthwhile for them that they've been out on strike for so long. it's been interesting, because we've seen huge movie stars like george clooney come in, say, let me help broker a deal. make sure the most high-paid movie stars are making sure money flows first to the lower paid stars. so, i think that's a big piece of this and the efforts by george clooney and others to make sure there's more of their big earnings going to cover things like health insurance and others was a big effort. i think a.i. is still a big sticking point. and at the end of the day, this

is really about the transition to streaming and making sure there's compensation for the shift to streaming. and i think people want to protect themselves for what they fear is the coming shift to a.i., as well. >> julia, great to see you. especially in person. >> yeah. >> great to be here. >> fantastic. we all started -- >> royalty? >> she is. >> well, a lot of people don't know, j.b. started around the same time "fast money" was created. i'm just saying that, so, that's sort of inside baseball. so, it's great to have her here number one. number two, it's make or break time for netflix, 15% in like a week, we're now the third point of a downtrend from july highs of 480. if netflix is going to flex, has to do it now. >> and real quick, cruel summer who was the first one that sang that song? give you a clue from the karate kid movie. >> that doesn't help. bananarama. >> holy cow. she did it. >> she does this all the time. extraordinary. >> executive producer in my ear. coming up, it's a trap.

chart master ctearr worth joins us to break down the names that are a bunch of bull traps. the technical trap, next. "fast money" is back in two. ♪ my name is josh sanabria and i am the owner at isla veterinary boutique hospital. i was 5...6 years of age and i knew i was going to be a vet. once alexandra called me to let me know that bank of america had approved my loan... it was important to me. we not only just provide the financing piece, we do everything that we can to surround them with the right people. all you need is a perfect, amazing team that will guide you through the right steps to be successful. and that's what bank of america was for me.

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some charts out there are more devious than your usual pair of twos. the chart master says they are bull traps. carter worth is here to help us make sure we don't get snared. carter what are you looking at? >> never good to get snared. so, well, value traps are weak stocks that are so tempting, they're cheap, and they end up being traps. a bull trap is something that's been very strong and yet the strength was a trap. it draws money in, it looks as though it's finally broken out and finally reverses hard. we're going to look at four, five examples and then one that i think is a possible bull trap. we'll start with an etf, and the first one here is the itb, the home construction. this is now down almost 20%, but it's a textbook example of something that's strong, remember, the market has yet to make a new high, going back to its -- and it tries to break out. draws in capital and it's a trap, it reverses hard. down 20%. look at another etf, another

sector or theme, look at xli. it's the same thing. it looks, again, people are positioned, it's going, it's making a new high, it's leading, there is no recession, the market can't make a high, but it is -- and it only reverses, now it's down some 11%. let's go to a stock or two. the biggest one of all, apple. apple broke out. it had a lot of price target raises, upgrades. and yet, it's down 13%. a classic bull trap. or something completely different, look at constellation brands, i'm trying to be eclectic in the choice to make a point it's a circumstance that has no regard for market cap or type of business. it makes the high, it breaks out, draws in and then it reverses. finally, look at even different yet again, cruise ships. i mean, royal caribbean is down 30%. on a technical basis, one could have made a case, it's a textbook breakout. and so bull traps are just that, a senanare, they're treacherous. look at nvidia.

it's a big stock that has broken out. and the risk here is that this, too, is a trap. that this is adored, it's loved, and it's perhaps -- i think this is the right -- if you are long, you got to hedge. and/or just buy some puts and play for a speculative break. it looks like it has all the elements of a perspective bull trap. >> carter, may i ask you, in terms of the other examples of bull traps that have snared people, did you think that they looked like that they were going to reverse hard or did it look so textbook in terms of the breakout that there was a moment in time when you thought, you know, this could be it for these stocks? >> so, interestingly, happily, we did not publish a single one of those names as a breakout. and that wasn't necessarily great inside, a little bit of luck, but here's what it was. when all those stocks were breaking out there were so many things that weren't confirming it. banks and biotech and the

chinese market and so many things that were struggling, it felt like a trap. and so, we specifically did not publish on any breakout candidates over the past three, four months for that very reason. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton worth of worth charting. julie, does nvidia tempt you? could it snare you, perhaps? has it already? >> you know, i think the thing about nvidia is, you have to think about, where is that incremental buyer that is going to help push this stock up further, right? there are a lot of people on the sidelines who are just, man, i absolutely missed this name. and i think fundamentally, you can really make the case that of the a.i. companies in megatech, this is the only one that's experiencing growth right now. so, it makes sense. >> all right, up next, final trades.

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final trade time. julie? >> recently announced it was purchasing number three player in the uk retail market, but look, honestly, right move is the name player. that's the one. >> mike khouw? >> cloud a.i., even streamer and

a decent valuation, i like alphabet. google. >> tte. this deal flow favors them. >> guy? >> phils down early, a lot of time. spr, i think the bottom is in. >> thank you for watching money, see you back here at 5:00, mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my goal is to make you money. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i am jim cramer. this is mad money. tweet me at jim cramer. what do the buyers truly fear,