stephanie? >> mcdonald's, down 14% from its highs. digital drive food delivery is creating market share. i like the stock into the quarter. >> did you see nike by the way? >> i did. a nice bounce. >> almost 2 1/2%. >> a little bit of china. >> good stuff. we'll see you later. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. bill ekman has covered that bet against bonds. he tells us why and what he is buying right now. jamie dimon says central banks have been 100% dead wrong on forecasts, and it doesn't matter if the fed hikes again. is he right? and a big payment player and two big tech names on deck with earnings. our guest says one has a lot of problems but they're good ones.

let's start with today's market as you heard scott say, we're heading to session lows. dom? >> just about session lows. it's been a generally positive day, kelly, to your point. but at the highs of the session, just to give you an idea of the context today, the s&p 500, which is currently up seven points right now, was up roughly 42 points at the high, and up roughly two points tat lows of the session. again, 4224 is the last trade there. keep an eye on 4236. we mentioned this so-called 200-day moving average or longer term trend line for the markets on a rolling basis, that's something traders are watching. the dow industrials up about one quarter of 1%, 32,029. the nasdaq up to 13,040. so losing some steam in this midday part of the session. one part that's been gaining

steam throughout the course of the last weeks is bitcoin. if you look at this chart, over the last year or so, we have now topped 33,000. at one point today, depending on which metric or exchange you looked at on bitcoin, we were worth of 35,000, up 8.5%. this is the highest level going back to better parts of this year. so bitcoin, keep an eye on those. it's been a breakout. we had some trading ranges slightly below there for the better part of the last six months. so we'll watch bitcoin prices. and then generally speaking, most of the companies that have reported have been positive on both the top and bottom lines. companies like 3m, up 5.5%. general electric up 6%. rtx, formally known as raytheon,

big defense contractor, up 7%. they added $10 billion to their stock buyback. believe it or not, this is tame, kelly, because we have a lot more results coming out later this week. >> rtx down big. 5% bond yields may be spooking markets but my next guest says they're just reverting back to the historical mean with inflation, taxes, and nomal gdp. joining me now is the chairman and ceo of strategic research partners. also with us is brian weinstein, head of global markets at morgan stanley. great to have you both here this afternoon. jason, we'll start with you. you know, you think this is normal, everything's fine, stop panics, everybody. >> yeah, i think that's my view. what was not normal was the fed fixing interest rates, the most important price in the world for 12 years. i think problem now, generationally, and i can say this because i'm a bit older,

but i think people have forgotten that there is normally people who lend other people money require some premium over the rate of inflation to do so. and we all got very accustomed to the fact that real rates were zero or negative in some cases. so to the extend the fed is unlikely to use quantitative easing again soon, i hope, that would mean that they will be a typical spread of about 200 basis points between the rate of inflation and the ten-year treasury. i also think there are structural reasons why inflation is likely to stay higher than the 0 to 2% range we have become used to, as well. >> so do you think that 5% yields, on the long end, jason, is that basically the top or do you think they could get ahead higher from here? >> well, what worries me, kelly, there's just a certain amount of

fiscalincontinance in washington, d.c. so the amount of issuance is going to explode. so normally this would be enough. i would say this would be in the range of kind of the upper end, but the issue is that there is absolutely no discipline on spending for deficits, which means the supply of treasuries could explode. >> so all that said, brian, let me ask you a simple question, first, if you think 5% is the top of the range. >> first, there's no reason to believe that 5% is magical. to add to what he said in the long end, when i started, we had a balanced budget, no more treasuries. now we have infinite deficits. the long end of the yield curve is not cheap. the rest of it is cheaper. the long bond has some work to

do to find the top of the range. >> oh you think things could go a little higher from here. i want to play devil's advocate. i'm in a bearish mood, so let me ask you both about this. jason, let's say the economy is in recession next year, as much as everything happened in the past decade is coming home to roost, growth and inflation were so weak. why wouldn't we end up back in that situation again? if we have a nasty recession, and because of what you are talking about, the government can't come to the rescue, how bad could it get? could we be back in a defl deflationary trap all over again? >> i think it's doubtful. a lot has to do with government spending. it also has to do with the fact that i think one of the major tailwinds for lower inflation or disinflation was globalization. i think that's over, sadly. and i also think that our

environmental policies are baking in the cake higher energy prices of fossil fuels. if we have a recession next year, it wouldn't surprise me in the treasury yield fell. i'm just saying what you would expect, i don't think you can draw a lot of conclusions based on what you saw during 2009 to 2021 about the level that the rates might fall to. but the lower bound might be four as opposed to 2 1/2 or 3. so just given the nature of these structural issues that were discussed. >> this is fascinating, brian. if the lower bound is four, that's a huge problem, leaving us in the fiscal doom. it's going to mean that deficits keep widening and the debt keeps growing. it means we're stuck. you need the long-end rates to come back to something like two or three or where it will get real rates significantly lower to fix that problem. so i am curious what you would think would happen in a

recession, even a low inflation dynamic with bond yields. >> the bad news is, we'll find out. jason laid out the case very well. we don't seem to have fiscal discipline. i don't think we're going back to zero inflation. so i don't know if four is the down, it could be three. but it's not zero. i don't think that's where we're going. so yes, if we need to borrow tenure notes at 2.5% to survive, we'll have to adjust spending and taxes and do something to change the story. for this year, the story has been own cash, own risk. you're supposed to son me five d seven year credit rates and own less credit. >> i want to get to this auction, jason, on a very pragmatic note. would you be buying the short end here, thinking the fed's done hiking? what do you have confidence in in terms of investments right now? >> i think tips make a lot of

sense. i think if you are going to be in the fixed income markets, you would want to be in the shorter duration part of the curve. if you are buying stocks, you really have to focus on balance sheets and companies that have an ability to grow without relying on the kindness of strangers, without accessing capital that's near free indefinitely. and we became very accustomed to that during the qe period. but i think those days are over. >> go ahead. i was just going to say i note here as well, you say look, long-term hedges could perform well. dom, we are in the middle of a bond action right now. we had one at the top of the hour. let's see what is goi ing bette. >> what we have right now is 5 $1 billion worth of two-year

notes up for sale. the note sent off for sale at 5.05%, that was the yield. the yields currently in the market, roughly 0.59%. the yield went off slowly lower than what the market was before the auction went off, but compared to the averages, the bid to cover, which is the amount of demand there is, generally speaking, there was $2.64 forth of bids for every bond up for sale. that seems okay. over the last ten auctions oh of a similar size, that bid-to-cover was closer to 2.76. so slightly more demand for that particular bid-to-cover ratio. the number of indirect bidders was slightly lower. it was about 62.05%. that pair compares to 64%.

it's often seen as a proxy for foreign central bank demand. and then direct bidders, you think of hedge funds, mutual funds, that sort of thing, took about the same amount, 20% off that they normally do. dealers took down about 17% of this auction. so overall, the rate was slightly better than what it was going into the auction. demand on certain levels, maybe a little bit incrementally worse, so a mixed picture on the two-year side, kell. back over to you. >> your reaction? >> it's a two-year auction. there will be more. i think it's pretty average. the nice thing about the deficit, if you don't like this auction, wait for the next one. we know there's less foreign demand. you need higher yields to clear this thing. it takes a long time to happen and there's a lot more coming. but if you want bonds, they're out there and the yields are getting better every day. >> jason, last word. what is your advice to investors

in this climate? >> again, i think it's just focus on the fact that the era of quantitative easing is over, we're now in an era of quantitative tightening, and some of the old rules will start to apply, that the period between 2009 and 2021 was very unu unusual. >> to say the at least. and a lot of people came of able during this. jason, brian, thank you both for your time today. shares of the big three automakers. sense the uaw strike began, gm has taken the biggest hit down 14%. our phil lebeau has the latest. >> it's the largest and most profitable plant for general

motors that the uaw has struck, where they make the tahoe and escalade. that plant is 20% of their production in the u.s. 5,000 uaw workers on strike in texas. and general motors, since the strike began, keep in mind that 42% of its production in the united states has now been stopped because of uaw strikes. they have either stopped production or had to curtail it because of the ripple effects of the strike, as well. this has cost general motors $800 million since september 15th. and earlier today, the company said they would be holding guidance or withdrawing guidance for the rest of this year, because of the unknown costs out there. here is the ceo during the analyst call today. listen to the frustration in her voice. >> the current offer is the most significant gm has ever deoffer.

they demanded a historic contract and that's whatever delivered, increase in wages, record job security and world class health care. it's an offer that rewards our team members but does not put the company at risk. >> mary barra was feisty when asked about the uaw strike. it's understandable. i have a sense they knew something was coming, because the announced strike in arlington came after that call. take a look at the number of uaw strike location around the united states for all of the automakers, including eight final assembly plants, 45,000 uaw members are striking at these locations around the u.s. take a look at gm, ford, and stel stellantis. the uaw has now hit the most

profitable plants for each of the big three. >> fdoes that suggest whatever e heard on earnings today is history because we are facing a bigger profit bability hit? >> you mean, will they ever be able to reach the level of profitability they have right now if >> earnings came in a little better than expected, but how relevant is that to this situation? >> it's relevant to the uaw situation in that the uaw is using that to say you've got the money, you made $3.5 billion last quarter, we deserve more. that's the relevancy here. for the investor, i hate to say this, none of the investors are paying attention to the fact that gm is knocking it out of the park in the third quarter before the strike began. and that's not a reflection on gm, just the way the market is right now. i think the investors are saying you tell me what the cost profile is going to be. then i'll have a better sense about where i want to take this stock, where i want to buy it,

hold it, sell it, et cetera. they don't know that at this point. they have a general idea, but we don't know the final details of the uaw contract. >> there is one headline that catches my attention, apparently the dmv suspended cruise's deployment and driver lless tes driving. >> in california? >> i believe so. it's fresh on the ire, so there's not a lot of detail at this point. >> right. >> but just wanted to mention. >> well, given the incident that was under investigation, i can -- i do understand where the dmv is at. let's see where this investigation leads. >> yeah, exactly. phil, appreciate it very much today. in washington, d.c. no less. coming up, the house is still without a speaker but now there is a nominee. the question is how much support will he get? we're three weeks away from the next government shutdown. the latest from capitol hill, next.

and randy quarrels will join mess with his reaction to the he ten year dropping below 5%. and the dow, quarter percent increases across the board. ten-year vote, 4.83. back after this. ai has the power to automate, but if it's using untrusted data can you trust the results? your business doesn't just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output

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welcome back to "the exchange." the search for a new house speaker is entering its third week, the longest stretch since 1962. but house republicans just assured a while ago, putting forth a new nominee. emily wilkins has the latest. emily? >> reporter: hey, kelly. well, tom emer, who went in this morning as the favorite, has now emerged as the republican's next nominee for speaker. hopes are high that he can do better than jim jordan and steve ska less getting to that 217. after he was elected as the nominee, they said roll call, who will vote for him on the floor? there were 26 republicans who said they would not vote for

emmer. either they would vote present or for another member that. is a huge concern. he can only afford to lose four republicans. and right now, we are told that he's doing a town hall style with him, behind closed doors, hearing members out on their concerns, talking them through, trying to get them on board. there is a lot of fatigue in the conference right now. they have been going at this for so long without a speaker. it's not clear what the path forward is. there is optimism. i talked with congressman can muse r a little bit ago who is hope ful republicans can unify. >> i think we can overcome some of the differences we have. i certainly hope so. >> reporter: it remains to be seen at this point what republicans' next move is. they could wind up having a floor vote later today. we could not see anything until tomorrow. all that we do know at this point is that the clock is ticking. we know that there is that

november 17th funding when the stop gap funding runs out and we face another government shutdown. and the funding request that the white house has for israel that is very important for them to move. so, kelly, it's not clear what happens next, but we will be following every move on capitol hill. >> remind me when this vote by the whole house might happen. >> that is such a great question. right now, it's up to tom emmer and the nominees to decide. this is something members have had to be strategic about. how long do you go before putting them on the record? how many times do you put them on the record? that's part of the strategy we saw with scalise and jordan. it will be interesting to see how emmer plays that out. you don't want to get to the floor and then have 25 folks vote against you like with jim jordan. >> and time is of the essence. emily, thank you so much. as the fight for 217 votes

continues, my next guest says all the internal scuffling with house republicans could cause a problem going forward. joining me now is an economic policy analyst and the author of a new book called "the conservative futurist." james, we make it sound like you're bringing some hot fire incident here. what's really at stake here as this drags on and threatens, i don't know, maybe a shutdown or israel funding in the very least. >> yeah. well, pick them. a shutdown, israel and ukraine funding, permitting bill, just about anything. all that stuff is in limbo here. listen, i mean, i get it. for these members of congress, chaos is a ladder and tom emmer just climbed it.

26 no votes is worse than jordan, a huge hill to climb. and i heard matt gaetz maybe voted for him. i don't think we're at the end of the story here. >> well, we're not at the end in the sense that it's unlikely going to be settled in the next 24 hours that he moves on. so we're stuck in this kind of holding pattern, the same we were in last week. >> yes. >> mchenry has made it clear he doesn't want to be speaker. he sounded resistant to going that route. >> i'll be honest, i am very skeptical when politicians say they don't want the bigger job. >> right. >> that they don't want the job with more power. listen, i certainly think there's a realistic scenario that this stops being about votes and ends up being about lawsuits. whether it is legal to give the speaker pro-tem expanded power.

i think that might be where we're going, and i think at the end of the day, he would take that job and simply take the speaker's job. again, big, giant mountain of salt. politics say i don't want the job, i'm okay where i'm at. >> let me ask my question, not so much to pile on the republicans, but to say is this simply reflective of where the base is, where voters are? if they themselves are split on some of these thorny issues, we barely elected a congress that has clear leadership and this is just the latest manifestation of that. is that because people of this country are split on some of these big, thorny questions, as well? or should we blame the gop for infighting? >> clearly, there's a very high level of infighting inside the republican party. you have the republican base, doesn't think too much of its actual leaders.

i mean, in a normal scenario, somebody like tom emmer, that's kind of the person you think might be speaker. but he voted to certify the election. he's for ukraine aid. there are a lot of republicans who are very much against both those things. so there are all these different fissures. they talk about the five families of the republican party, the trump people, business people, it is a very -- you know, it's a crazy mix right now. what you are getting is very little governance and we are stuck in a holding pattern. it's paralysis. >> sometimes the line is that, you know, gridlock is good, that the markets like it and stocks can do well in that. i see you shaking your head no. i wanted to end with what you think the practical takeaway is for investors? >> this isn't 1999, the economy booming, you know, peace

everywhere. we have problems. we have a lot of foreign policy problems. we have an economy that could be doing a lot better. we have these regulations which make it impossible to build in this country. we have things that need to get done, so i'm against the notion that right now gridlock is good. maybe 25 years ago, not today. >> james, thank you for your time today. i really appreciate you fielding all the questions. coming up, nvidia getting a boost as it and amd are working on arm-based chips, and now nvidia has a new ai partnership. we'll get you the details, next. and here is a look at the sectors today with utilities leading the way. energy, health care, and tech are the groups languishing in

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♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. welcome back to "the exchange." about a third of a percent gain for the dow and s&p at the moment. 4233 for the s&p 500. nasdaq is up half a percent. and utilities are among the best performing sectors today. lower rates helping there. the etf that tracks the group is about to snap a five-day losing streak, up about 2.5%, best day since april. all 30 components in the green, and nearly half up 10% from their recent lows. it's still the worst performing sector etf, down about 17% since jan 1. but i remember michael darda saying utilities were a buy.

verizon is the top name in the s&p and having its best day sense 2008, after raising free cash flow guidance to $1 billion by more than $18 and added more subscribers than expected. revenues were in line with estimates. the stock hit its lowest level in more than 13 years, and now giving you the entire year's dividend yield, up nearly 9%. now to pippa stevens for a cnbc news update. >> kelly, the united nations relief workers said this afternoon they may be forced to stop operations in gaza tomorrow. the u.n.'s relief and workers agency says it's in urgent need of fuel. access to fuel in gaza has been cut off for weeks. officials in gaza say the health care system is failing. the three hospitals in the area have run out of fuel to power their generators. google maps and ways, which is owned by google are pausing live traffic updates.

-- live traffic updates in israel. google says the suspension is out of consideration for the safety of local communities. and lebron james and peyton manning are looking to team up. "the wall street journal" reports their production companies are in talks to create a show modeled on the series "quarterback," following the lives of pro basketball players. "quarterback" follows three nfl quarterbacks last season. kelly, back to you. >> >> coming up, jamie dimon ripping into central banks for their "flawed forecasting." we'll tell you what he said and ask the randy quarrels if he's right. and if the threat of higher yield could derail the flight against inflation, that's after this. dow is up 151 now. and now, cnbc trend tracker.

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welcome back. we're just a week away from the fed's next meeting. but jamie dimon is down playing the importance of the fed's next move. here's what he had to say earlier today in riyadh. >> i'm cautious. i don't think it makes a piece of difference whether the rates go up 25 basis points, zero, none. i want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% wrong. so i'm quite cautious about what happens next year. >> the richmond fed's business index slumped, but the manufacturing gauge was the second positive reading since the spring of 2022.

the next move doesn't matter, so what should the fed be doing with bank stocks back in the red today? here to discuss is the former fed vice chair for supervision, joining us from las vegas. thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. good to be here. >> i think in the past, if i'm not mistaken, you have aired on the side of caution, meaning the fed should keep hiking to make sure inflation doesn't get worse. what are you thinking today? >> well, at the outset of this whole episode, there were two big uncertainties. reason to think that interest rates wouldn't have to rise as high as traditional practice said in the past to constrain inflation, and reason to think that the length of time between a monetary policy action and actual result in constraining the economy would be shorter. so you get to a point like today, the question is, given that there was significant uncertainty about both of those

suppositions at the beginning, is it because interest rates haven't gone high enough or we haven't waited long enough and it's going to take longer than we thought at the outset? i, at this point, interest rates are probably high enough, it's just going to take a lot longer than many had thought at the outset of this tightening cycle in order to ultimately bring inflation in and constrain the economy. >> what do you think is going on with the banks right now? they are trading very poorly. >> well, there's concern in an environment where interest rates are going to be higher for longer that their liquidity needs could be much more significant than they have been for a long time. and how do you respond to those needs? the fed and the other bank regulators are gearing up to require the banks to address that through more capital and

more internal liquidity, holding more liquid assets inside of each bank. myself, i think that's the wrong response. and the only way you can address liquidity needs that would be driven by interest rates at this level will be for the fed to provide additional liquidity, which is really the poor mandate and from which it had set back over the course of the last decade. i think there are certain liquidity tools that will be much more consequential than quantitative tightening, to use that term. so you can push on the gas and the brake pedal at the provided you don't push on them equally. so that's something the fed can respond to by lending to the banking sector, and at the same time, following the path that

it's on. >> so banks could end up needing more help from the fed. do you think the fed reducing its balance sheet, or as we have seen that empty out, will they be forced to stop that process? >> again, i think that you've got different tools for different purposes. i think it would be fine for the fed to stop the process, but that, again, if it has a monetary policy reason for continuing on a particular path. but it nonetheless can respond to the banking system or to the financial system. i'm not sure the next theory of the financial system to come under pressure will be the banks, or at least the most dramatic consequence in the future. it could be in the non-banks. it's just any financial institution that has highly mobile liabilities, those can be

deposits or other types of funding, and highly interest rate sensitive assets is going to come under pressure. we saw it 30, 40 years ago with the savings and loan crisis. we're seeing it now, and there are a variety of ways to respond, the fed just has to be ready. >> i think of private credit, which is larger. so the fed has to be ready here it sounds like if there is more stress. but at the same time, we're in a dynamic because of the treasury borrowing needs that we haven't been in before. which of those is of greater concern to you? in other words, is the fed constrained? is treasury constrained in a way it could respond without putting upward pressure on interest rates? >> so of those two elements, i think myself that the most consequence shall is the fiscal side, opposed to the fed's

interest rate tool for monetary policy. i think that thetreasury's borrowing needs are consequential. i think the system can achieve all of these objectives. you can keep financial stability, address inflation, and the treasury can finance itself. but there has to be a lot of coordination and thought given to that. certainly, heavy understanding in congress and in washington that for the treasury to continue to borrow at this rate is unsustainable. they have to bring the debt under control. >> before we let you go, for some of us that are a little slow in the room, when we talk about providing liquidity to institutions from the fed if they needed it, are these programs that have existed in the past? would you just explain specifically what kind of support that would be? >> well, it certainly is programs that have existed in

the past are designed to provide liquidity to the banking system. through non-banks, not through the standard fed programs. there could be some programs that have precedent. there could be some programs that are relatively novel. but i think the fed needs to be geared up to be ready to provide that liquidity to the financial system. that's the right answer. opposed to trying to require every institution to have the liquidity to have thely liquidi needs we saw in the bank. no way a $200 bank can have $142 billion in liquidity, so the only answer there is for the fed to provide the liquidity, and that will apply throughout the financial system. >> fascinating. randy, thank you for making time today. appreciate your perspective. >> thank you. thanks for having me.

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welcome back. i mentioned the headlines earlier this hour, but we have a little more detail on the suspension of cruise's autonomous vehicles in california. diedra bosa has the story. >> the california dmv has suspended cruise's driverless taxis here in san francisco effective immediately. it gives reasoning, which includes the determination that the vehicles are not safe for public operation and says that the company misrepresented information. now, this is a huge blow to cruise, which is owned by general motors. the san francisco streets here are a hugely important testing ground for driverless vehicles, but cruise vehicles have been involved in a number of incidents over the last few months that has turned public safety agencies like the fire department against this pilot. cruise is trying to catch up with wamo 2, and this suspension means that cruise cannot use

those robo taxis without a human driver present. that's where this race is to develop the technology to do it for free or paid rides. it is still able to test the technology with a safety driver that is likely a small consultation. but like i said, the race is with no safety driver. we reached out to cruise. we'll update you when we hear back. >> many more thoughts but we'll save it. diedra, thank you very much. shares of nvidia and arm are climbing again today. amd is also up but down yesterday after reuters reported that these three companies are works together on pc chips. while that has yet to be confirmed, nvidia did announce a did partnership today. let's get to christina with those details. >> thank you, kelly. lenovo wants to go all-in on ai, and as we have seen this year, that means you have to partner with nvidia. luckily, they already worked

together in high performance comp computing, and now they will advance lenovo's partnership. they are offering a hybrid ai solution, which means use nvidia's ai cloud service but run on lenovo's system powered by nvidia hardware. and so think of it as a big mix of both companies together so that you can run your models on the cloud and on location at say the nasdaq or whatever company location you are around the world. it sounds super techie, but the takeaway is that nvidia's ecosystem is further integrated into other company's ai platforms. so it's not just about the gpu chips that are in backlog, but nvidia's various software and cloud programs. nvidia shares are lower this morning. you can see on the intraday chart, the company said that

export controls are already in place, versus the 30 days from october 17th that it was initially supposed to start. so that timing has been moved up, but the reaction is priced into the stock when news hit last tuesday, which is why it rebounded after this morning, kelly. incredible developments last couple of days. christina, thank you. and closing bell overtime, a lot more on this story with the ceo of qualcomm in a first on cnbc interview at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. don't miss it. coming up, microsoft missed on earnings only once in the past 20 quarters. alphabet is the, quote, most owned internet stock heading into the fourth quarter. we'll get you the action, stories and trade next.

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♪ welcome back. the busiest week of earnings season ramps up with two big tech names after the bell, microsoft and google and visa. portfolio wealth adviser lee munson is our trader today. good to see you again. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> let's start with microsoft. shares up 37% thanks in big push into ai. goldman also highlighting azure's growth and any indication of co-pilot adoption as key numbers to watch and closed act vision. that's something that analysts are keeping an ear out for here. lee, what do with the stock

here? >> beat what estimates are. they have to come in hot. i tell you, let's get the hype versus reality. goldman is right. it's all about azure. it's all about that 70 plus percent margin on the majority of their revenues and profits. i love co-pilot and love to have subject/verb agreements on my word documents. i care about the whole hype about ai is going to start writing video games. all of this is about are they going to grow cloud and keep that 70% plus margins. everything else is just noise. >> i tend to agree. that kind of sets us up for alphabet as well. hot 2023, up more than 55% this year. rbc is warning of weakness, ad weakness in search and says youtube ads gotten a boost as people go searching for content during the hollywood strikes on the margin impact of job cuts also on their radar. what about this name, lee? >> you know, i love youtube. i know those margins are fat. the problem is, it's 10, 11% of

the revenues. if youtube was 25, 30% i would be all over this. but you have to believe with google -- by the way, for full disclosure i own a little bit, i owned for a while. this is all about ad growth. the ads on google are core ads not like meta and snaps there chat, get a lot of volatility in spend. so i think you have a decent ad environment going forward. i'm not convinced that chatgpt is going to eat all of core ads. the real thing if you want this stock to keep going higher, you have to have cloud become more profitable. it's a third rate cloud platform. we need to see it make money. >> same emphasis for microsoft and google really all about the the cloud for both of them. visa, shares up 12% year to date. good barometer for what's going on with the economy and the consumer. full year consensus revenue expectations are too lofty especially as inflation moderates. that will be a nominal hit. on going disruption in

profitable businesses like travel that could be at risk. dollar here a big story. cross-border spending was a help in the recent past, but what now? what would you do with this stock, lee? >> you know, i would just stay away from it. this is all going to be about the macro. visa can't escape the macro. it's a great company. all it does is print money. people think it can do no wrong. we have to keep the personal expenditures to continue toin florida state. any type of recession next year, people will look at visa and say, why are we paying such a high multiple. this is like when those classics like a starbucks or nike a month ago, buy it if they have bad guidance. buy it when it's down. but why pay a premium for it. especially going into next year. >> parting thought on the markets? >> i love the market right now. i would like to see the 10-year trade above 5% longer than five minutes. i think we could see the low

come in. if we saw pricing of a hard landing like a 4,000 on the s&p, i'm backing up the truck and getting crazy. >> but here do you back it up or wait? >> i bought -- i would buy here. i'll tell you why, i bought at similar levels earlier in october. if i hadn't, about 4,200 to 4250 is a great place to commit more capital. but, put half of your extra inventory that you want to buy i think we can go lower. yeah, around here is a great party if you have extra cash and need to get some money moving. >> 4232 is our level at in a moment, lee, thank you. we always appreciate it. >> thank you. that does it for "the exchange" more analysis on markets on the economy, sign up for my newsletter at cnbc.com/newsletters. coming up on "power lunch," another name reporting after the bell, snap. shares fell nearly 24% in the third quarter. but we'll get the loan or rare bullish case. dom is getting ready. i'll join him on the other side of this break.

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♪ welcome to "power lunch." alongside dominic chu i'm kelly evans. coming up, meta facing a new lawsuit over its alleged impact on kids and teen. the suit alleges meta's services are designed to be addictive and the company has lied about it. we'll speak to the attorney general of washington, d.c. speaking of social media, our contrarian week continues with a look at snap. 38 analysts cover the stock, but only three rate it a buy. we'll talk to one of those. >> first a check on the markets. overall, earnings are certainly in focus this week with the dow industrials now actually trending higher, up about 133 points, 33,069 the last trade there. with regard to some of the big movers that you are seeing, earnings related, a couple dow components in 3m, coca-cola as well