good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site on times asquare i'm becky quick alongside joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. dow futures down 102 points. s&p futures down 25. the nasdaq off by 135. again, comes after the rough day yesterday. joe mentioned the nasdaq the nasdaq had its worst day since february nasdaq fell into correction territory tumbling 2.4%. it closed down 10% from the prior peak in mid-july it was dragged down by shares of alphabet which closed lower by 9.5% with weakness in the cloud

business that logged the worst session since march of 2020. $166 billion wiped out that is equal to the entire market cap of nike and amd or disney that cloud weakness spilled over into amazon. we will hear what amazon has to say tonight after the closing bell amazon shares off from yesterday at 1.7%. treasury yields picked up. the 2-year treasury at 5.12% that's the key level >> those are good facts you gave you can find a lot of companies uccompanies. boeing ibm. ge

to lose that and still be worth a lot is the good news and bad news maybe good news and bad news morning. uaw and ford reaching a tentative deal to end the six-week strike. phil lebeau is joining us with details coming out overnight good morning >> reporter: good morning, andrew the final push for the deal was this week after the uaw called for more strikes ford earnings were set for thursday they finalized a deal. it kaulscalls for a 25% hike foe several four and a half years. there is more profit sharing for retirees here is shawn fain talking with

the membership last night on facebook >> we send this contract to you because we know it breaks records. we know it will change lives what happens next is up to you >> reporter: all right what is next for the uaw members who have been on strike since september 15th they will go back to work soon when remains to be seen. they will not wait for finalization details will be spelled out on sunday and the ratification vote will take place after that that remains to be seen. likely in the next week is the ratification vote. the important part is they will go back to work soon a matter of days not waiting until it is fi fina finalized. all of this comes as you look at shares of ford when the company will report q3 results after the

bell and conference call analysts are expecting earnings up 50% compared to the third quarter of last year still strong demand and pricing, especially on the f-150 and suvs as a result, that is the focus on the conference call today not necessarily the q3 results, but theagreement that call is after the bell. they release after the bell and we get the ford call gm and stellantis have strikers at their plants. for gm, that strike is knocked out or stopped with 15% of the production in the united states. for stellantis, these strikes stopped 11% of its production here in the u.s. guys, one down and two to go let's see you how long it takes

for the uaw to strike a deal with gm and stellantis >> phil, how do you expect this to go with the other companies is this a blueprint and 25% of the pay increase is that the expectation that gm and stellantis have to step up to that or are there other issues which are different with those companies over ford? >> reporter: the contracts will be similar, but there are differences. stellantis a big push from the uaw is to reopen the plant outside of rockford, illinois the belvedere plant. they idled it earlier this year. they have no intention of restarting that plant. sd stellantis does not. the the uaw wants the plant reopened what happens do they repurpose it as a mega hub for parts and distribution one idea which has been floated

out there. that is not the same level of pay as the final assembly plant. that is one example, becky, where the contract with stellantis has different sticking points than the contract with ford or gm they are generally speaking in terms of the wage increase which will be in the same area and expect them to come in at 25%. >> to that point, phil, how far does this trickle out? we are talking about the specific companies and all of the supplies in the ecosystem will trade and those non-union will use these as new baselines for everything or not? >> reporter: yes do i think they will get 25% for some of the suppliers? no i don't think they will get 25%. you are right, andrew. this resets the map in the auto industry for uaw and non-union

we talked about this for some time you can bet the pay will go up for honda plants and toyota plants all non-union foreign auto worker plants. pay will go up not as much as uaw >> is it doable for ford to stay wildly profitable? do they have to stay with internal control we will hear from them similar to gm? the good times are rolling right now. money is rolling in. the minute inventory sits on th lot and people don't want it, will this stick to the taxpayers? >> reporter: i don't think we're at the point with taxpayers stuck with the increase. jim farley -- >> its always happens. >> reporter: joe, let's talk about this discussion.

bill ford and jim farley have to thread the needle. they are not giving up on electric vehicles. they believe and most in the auto industry believes the future is electric vehicles. the question becomes how much of the inn vvestment going into th electric vehicles when you know demand is slowing down relatively what it has been in the past it is not stopping >> waging are surging. >> reporter: waging are going up ultimately this is the knock you hear especially on wall street about the big three auto stocks. how can these guys ever get the multiple they would like given the cost components relative to toyota, honda, tesla that's the one that people talk about the most tesla workers make far less than the uaw at gm and ford and stellantis when the contract is in, the gap

widens >> okay. >> thanks, phil. breaking overnight israel conducted a targeted raid on sites in northern gaza with tanks. described the raid as preparations to combat with idf striking terrorist infrastructure and anti-tank missile launch sites we will get more information -- i guess this would be the start of the ground war. to the mass shooting in maine last night at least 15 people are dead and around 50 people injured after a man fired in several locations in lewiston, maine including a bowling alley and bar. residents were told to shelter in place while police searched for a suspect. police have named 40-year-old robert card as a person of

interest we will update you on the story as we get more information. hard pivot to this u.p.s. reporting its earnings. let's tell you about them. beating estimates by 5 cents with adjusted quarterly profit with $1.70 per revenue it cut the full-year sales outlook. u.p.s. was impacted by unfavorable conditions when we come back, we will dig into earnings. the big tech earnings. we show you what ibm and meta said those stocks moving. and the ceo of biontech will zhme us on the latest on the aleir's drug you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. let's get to the squawk planner. we have a busy day from earnings honeywell and merck and comcast. we hear from ford and chipotle after the bell today and we will get the first look at third quarter gdp today we will see 4% as the expectation, joe >> yes 4.5. >> we get september durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims ecb will release the latest interest rate decision at 8:15 a.m. eviastern time. shares of ibm are higher revenue is in line software revenue up 8% consulting up 6% mainframe computers fell 2%.

i don't know how many years you can go back and get similar drops in revenue guidance for the full year for ibm with the market cap loss we saw in alphabet. ibm lost $166 billion. that is $124 billion let's talk about meta. shares slipping this morning the social media giant with stronger results and the company widened the revenue guidance it signall led softer ad spendig since the start of the israel conflict we havehave julia boorstin with. >> the key thing here is the top and bottom line results beat expectations meta is seeing accelerating

revenue growth 23% revenue growth over 21% which was expected we are talking the fastest quarterly revenue growth in two years. something happened on the call a little bit of weakness as investors digested the information which was lighter than expected. the cfo susan li said we are seeing a little bit more weakness and uncertainty and volatility when it comes to the fourth quarter with so much uncertainty with ad spending the same thing snap ceo evan spiegel said you cannot contribute the spending to one region over this weakness the question is how brand advertisers in particular respond to this ongoing war. >> brad, how concerned are you about this and the other thing i would mention is all we talked about metaverse and how much

they were spending on the metaverse. that conversation has stopped. now they talk about has the company pivoted to being an a.i. company and will that work what is the opportunity to monetize that? speak to what julia said with the call piece i'm concerned where you land on the a.i. piece of it >> i think people being aware of the war and people had questions. you had snap say we are seeing meaningful pause in brand spending meta has low exposure in brand spending that had somewhat of an impact the other thing that came up on the call which was an issue is they called out china as a source of strength in all

regions of the world for ad spend. you had a couple of ecommerce players that have come in aggressively when you are driving that much strength right now, it calls into question how sustainable that is into next year >> $290.60 right now is this a good deal? >> absolutely. we think longer term stock trading 16 times earnings. share gainer over the next few years. that is a compounder recognize there is always noise on some of the prints with everything going in the world right now. >> i would point out, andrew, over what happened to the metaverse. mark zuckerberg talked about it, but he pivoted saying a.i. is part of everything and it is driving the advertising results and it will make things better

the metaverse is all about a.i the way they talked about the headsets and the ray ban gr glasses. >> i want a pair >> you can ask for advice through the a.i. glasses or ask for directions or information. all of that initially started out being about the metaverse and now it is about a.i. >> it looks cooler than the google glasses >> they don't have anything in them except a camera on them >> they have the speakers. i did a demo of them last week they have the speakers, you can say hey, meta. ask for a recipe or instructions >> let me ask brad >> here you are. >> is that a killer app for you? the truth is if siri were better, you could do -- siri is not bad and you can do it it

w with the google app. ask the same questions >> nice uppercut, julia. the key thing here is meta has the embedded 10 million plus advertiser relationships they have the commercial relationships already. they are bringing the technology in when you think about how we call it access the internet mark is tielling us this is how people will access the internet in the future. you have to stitch that together by the way, no one thought about the fact that a.i. is moving in from the ad recommendation you are selling to the a.i. not just human any more, if you think about it. >> hold on you warped my brain there. you are selling to the a.i

what do you mean by that >> if the a.i. is helping you navigate the internet, there is -- >> a farpartner in crime >> exactly some amount of subjectivity to how they help you navigate that relationship thus, the ads will need to reflect that the a.i. will start to know you, if that makes sense. >> julia, thank you. brad, great to see you i appreciate it. >> thanks. private equity giant silverlake is working on taking evndeavor group private. it has a majority stake in tko holdings which resulted from the merger of wrestling iente entert

entertainment. silverlake ownss 70%. ari emanuel says we believe this is a prudent approach to ensure we are maximizing the value for shareholders endeavor went public in april of 2021 before the after hours move, that stock was down 35% since the ipo being up 23% right now which is a gain of $4. coming up, sam bankman-fried is expected to testify in his fraud trial. we will tell you how soon he could take the witness stand. and coming up later, nik ley is joining us. that's in the next hour.

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lawyers for sam bankman-fried revealed he could testify as soon as today in a letter to the judge, sam

bankman-fried's legal team outlined three key points. they indicate he could try to shift blame to the former legal team or blame the status quo in crypto or blame authorities in the bahamas for some of his post-bankruptcy actions. his attorney seems to think sam bankman-fried pmay decline to testify if the judge would not allow him to speak along those lines. >> what? >> it is fascinating the judge limited what can come into the case. the idea, for example, of blaming lawyers. >> how do you blame the bahamian authorities? >> i don't know. except to say you were regulated. >> they should have caught >> if they were authorizing these things that is the argument

a lot of the stuff, the judge has not allowed to come into the trial at all i think a lot of people are watching this case and obviously increasingly seems like a slam dunk there is little defense mounted at all almost no defense mounted. one of the main reasons that is the case is because the judge is limited what can be brought into the case >> why why is the judge limiting that >> he has a particular view. it is interesting to see, i'm sure, that the lawyers are hoping to set up a situation if and when they lose that they appeal the case on the grounds that certain aspects of the case were never tried in the case it will be a very hard case to win on appeal or try to have a second trial, effectively. that is clear if you are watching the tea leaves and given the way the judge has been

hard lined over what is allowed in and out and in a way that people raised questions. that will be the debate. >> it gets stranger by the minute. when we come back, we will tell you what the new house speaker mike johnson said yesterday about his legislative priorities plus, the ceo of biontech will join us on the company's new alzheimer's data while we head to break, let's look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit,

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. looking at futures still in red arrows. dow futures down 85. s&p down 22. remember, the s&p closed below that 4,200 level yesterday nasdaq was the big loser yesterday. the futures are indicated off 120 points right now. we have merck just out with

the results. checking the yield is the first thing with merck for so long, it was a bond with upside that is not the case 2.8% drugmaker with the profit of $2.13 a share. revenue also above the wall street forecast. results were helped by a particularly strong growth in oncology treatment and vaccines. doing okay not on its highs trading at $103. $119 was the high. biontech presented alzheimer's data with the medical meeting this week. angjelica is here with me when you looked around, you said this is amazing. is that the first thing you thought on "squawk box" and

we're all thinner and taller in person >> that is what i thought about. thanks for having me we had a few updates from biontech from the alzheimer's conference up in boston. biontech and partner are saying the drug leqembe is approved in an iv form the companies are saying they will move ahead with approval to seek approval in march that drug clears harmful brain plaque similar to iv form. this is the second approved drug for alzheimer's. the first faced controversy over efficacy and regulatory review we will get a better sense when the company reports earnings neck next month being able to inject at home inn

s stead of infusion could help it. biontech is testing another drug other than lequembe. we will keep an eye on it. >> we hear home infusion it was a growing business. people need to go in there are big delays and back ups. you need it twice a week iv. >> injectable. >> the old one was twice a week iv even when it was approved, it will not move the needle it is too difficult to administer this is like insulin or epi. this is easier i thought i saw it removes the plaque 14% better than iv. >> that is what they presented

last night which is really interesting. it actually works better than the iv at removing plaque. it comes with a little bit of a higher risk. >> brain swelling. >> that is something that analysts as they pick apart the numbers saying this is not a slam dunk. there could be questions from the fda about the tradeoffs there. they are excited because being able to give it at home yourself or care giver is easier than going in for infusion. >> stick around. let's bring in the biontech president here chris, i know you were able to hear that. i thought the brain swelling or side effect profile was similar -- is that something to be similarcutaneou administration >> the rates are roughly similar. the infusion was twice a month as opposed to twice a week

you know, obviously, auto i injector at home is more convenient for patients. >> what is the state of the infusion it is difficult. is there a shortage of being able to do it? this is a game changer you won't think necessarily it is just the way to administer something could totally change the profile for how profitable the drug can be. >> you know, if we step back, joe, what is preel i interesting is this is a new category. there hasn't been a treatment for alzheimer's before biontech has been investing for over 20 years and billions to get this far you know, we've known that alzheimer's is caused by the death of newurons. what caused that with getting lequembi approved,

we know removing plaque relates to cognition now we are starting to think what else can we know about this and make it more convenient for patients can we figure out the patient to benefit most from the treatment? can we find other modalities to take the treatment beyond that we have the first new drug, this shows the commitment to improve the treatment options for patients we think the sub cutaneous treatments can help. >> does research continue on a different way to approach the pathology? i nose removing the plaque can

help had is there something else down the road to be used with a plaque remover in a different way are we convinced we need to do this better and eventually it will work against this disease which will be ready with the aging population, this is a daunting challenge >> the real problem with alzheimer's is the death of neurons. we don't know how to bring neurons back to life what we really want to do is stop the death of neurons. there are believed to be together two causes. one is the ameloid plaque. leqembi works to remove the plaque the second is tau. if you have alzheimer's, you have the ameloid plaque and the

tau. on the ameloid, what we can do is if we try to get earlier in the disease progression, we think we can also have better outcomes because not as many neurons will have died at that point. one issue with this disease is different from others, you have a silent phase of the disease where the plaque is accumulating and people don't know. you have the disease long before the symptoms what we used to call early onset alzheimer's is when you had symptoms what we really would like to do is try to find patients before they get symptoms to have something ahead ongoing to look at patients earlier. one of the ways to tell how severe alzheimer's is is the level of tau we published data this week where patients who have low tau levels early in the stage of

progression actually had a 76% response rate and 60% improved 76% were stable and 60% improved in the benefit we are learning about where is the best time to initiate treatment. that is where subcue will be important. patients will be on drugs longer and freeing them up from the twice monthly infusions is important. you are left for tau that is where we had encouraging results where we develop new medicine which is going after a different modality you want to combine those. >> chris, great to see you i want to ask a lot of analysts are wondering how you see subcue used from infusion and how do

you roll out leqembi and what do you hear from doctors and reimbursement issues >> figphysicians will decide if subcutaneous or iv is right for the patients we have to go to the fda eisai has indicated they intend to file for approval of the s subcue at the end of the first quarter. concerning the launch, the launch is on track as we expected this is a completipplex deiseasd treatment. it takes a while for the care path ways to develop between the initial referral to the neurologist and getting influence can be as long as

one-to-two months. this was an area with so many failures in the past and i think the health care systems wanted to see if we could get full approval and reimbursement we have all of those things. we are seeing the medical centers gearing up having to hire people and figuring out the care pathways. you need to triage patients with who is eligible and who is not then going through the p.e.t. scan and infusions in terms of treatment and following up on safety with mris we expect to see the progression of sales through next year >> chris, thank you for updating us on this we appreciate it it's important thank you. good to see you. >> thank you let's talk about with southwest airlines they just released quarterly

earnings phil lebeau is back doing those numbers. he is doing quadruple duty d >> reporter: andrew, revenue coming in line with estimates at $6.53 billion. a couple of metrics. revenue per seat mile down 6.8% compared to the same quarter of q3 of 2022 you have cost per seat mile up 4.4% excluding fuel now for the guidance in the fourth quarter southwest expects revenue per seat mile to decline 9% to 11% compared to the same quarter last year with the cost per southeast mile excluding fuel to be down 16% to 19% compared to q4 of 2022

the company says it is noticing in terms of booking patterns that they are returning to historically normal patterns we talked about this when will we see the pandemic surge wean off and we get into more of a normal pattern that is what southwest is seeing lots to discuss with bob jordan coming up on the "squawk on the street" at 9:00 a.m. this morning. guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you. coming up on the other side, we will tell you what new house speaker mike johnson said about his legislative priorities we will do that after we return here on "squawk box. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed brokers choose interactive brokers.

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leadership crisis in the house has come to an end. congress member mike johnson of louisiana won the gavel yesterday winning 220 republicans who cast a ballot. speaker johnson spoke after he was sworn in >> we're in the majority right now. we've gone through a little bit of suffering we've gone through character building you know what it produced? more strength and a lot of hope. that's what we're about to deliver to the american people >> the new speaker said the first order of business is the bill expressing solidarity with israel and the war against hamas. he supports a temporary measure to fund the government through january or april of next year which would avoid a shutdown on november 17th. a lot still not known about mike johnson. he is not a well known character outside of congress or inside

washington there will be more that we find out about him. i did hear comments that other leadership like scalise and others will do heavy lifting and mike is not a figure head, but not the same powers as pelosi or bans boehner. >> he hasn't had a lot of leadership a lot of people are talking about his personal relationship. hakeem jeffries looked nice handing him the gavel. i don't think some of the other leaders are going anywhere mccarthy and scalise and jim jordan with the judiciary. >> we will see the good news is you can start to get things passed through congress >> i didn't hear ukraine. >> he voted not to fund ukraine. would you bring that to the floor? >> ukraine or israel

he mentioned just israel >> i wonder where other leadership comes in and how much of that decision is made it will be interesting we'll continue to watch t. when we come back, uaw reaching a tentative deal with ford that's next. when you think of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice.

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welcome back, everybody. the uaw and ford reaching a tentative deal to end the nearly six-week strike with the automaker. and joining us right now with his reaction is jay timmons, the national association of manufacturers president and ceo. jay, how do you see this is this good news thestrike ha settled or bad news because it settled with some pretty high wages and other things that have come into play >> i think it is great that it is potentially settled and that we're going to be able to continue to make things in america. the strike was particularly difficult, i think, for smaller

manufacturers who are part of the supply chain perhaps unionized or not unionized. they were hit pretty hard. and we heard from so many of our members that they were making pretty tough decisions, to either put production on hold, lay off workers, perhaps even chill some investment decisions they were making so, we're happy to see there is forward movement. >> smaller manufacturers, even if not uaw shops, union shops, are probably going to be pressured to raise wages can they still be competitive? >> i think we're going to have to see, becky, how this all plays out. clearly there are cost pressures when it comes to wages but i think we also have to think about what is the overall cost of manufacturing in the united states? and how does that impact our ability to compete around the world? wages, salaries are one factor regulations are another, and in fact we were releasing a study today that talks about the

incredibly expensive cost of regulations in the united states so all of those things on a manufacturer in the united states puts a lot of pressure on us. >> you all put a number of $29,000 per employee per year as a cost that your manufacturers are seeing because of federal regulatory burden. what does that mean? what federal regulations >> it is $29,000 per employee per year we just updated our study, our regular study we released. the inflation adjusted dollars go from about $2.1 trillion of total economic burden for the regulatory structure in this country to about three >> what are the regular -- what are regulations? >> every single regulation. >> name them >> you can think about regulations that come out of the epa, think about labor regulations. some of the regulations that are being talked about right now are not even included in the study so the s.e.c. scope three regulations, for instance or the tail pipe emissions or the pm

2.5 rule coming out of epa all of those are part of the regulatory morass coming out of d.c. those are not part of the study. this looks at 2022 -- as of 2022 all the regulatory burden. >> what is the biggie? there are some -- there is need for some regulation, other regulations seem silly what is a regulation that you all deem being unnecessary and expensive? >> so, let's look at where we are right now with this administration and what they're starting to talk about, or what they're trying to put out. business is not at the table we're not having conversations right now. for instance, the pm 2.5 rule. >> which is what >> that's particulate matter, the amount of particulate matter in the air everybody wants cleaner air, obviously. the way to accomplish that is through manufacturing innovation and making sure that we're able to produce the equipment that

will make our air cleaner and reduce some of the particulate matter the rule they're talking about and the potential number that they're talking about could put 40% of our country in what is called a nonattainment area which means we can invest in manufacturing in those areas that's not -- >> what is the main -- the co2, that's not -- they're not doing that now because of -- >> talking about ozone, i believe. >> they're not doing that now because a court decided that's not -- >> at this juncture. but there are other -- >> i don't think anyone would argue you need regulations for -- >> particulate matter, exactly. >> we have pretty strong regulations in place >> power plants, it may come back with a vengeance, the co2 -- >> it could well and it is also being implemented or imposed in other areas. so you think about the s.e.c. and their scope three regulation forcing folks to come up with

data that frankly is not accessible so a lot of these regulations don't make any -- don't make any logical sense. >> you can't do anything. >> think about what we're trying to do with chips in the kun frid country and all the inputs needed we can't act those in the united states because we can't nemi them it toakes 15 years for a permit >> we're out of time but thank you for coming in today. jay timmons. "squawk box" will be right back. but to advance how the game is played. aaa relies on t-mobile's network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

good morning this week's market turbulence set to continue on the busiest day of earnings season the futures are under pressure dow down over 150 points. ford and the uaw reaching a tentative agreement to end labor strikes. we'll bring you the details. israel launching raids in gaza overnight in preparation for the next stage of the war with hamas presidential hopeful nikki haley will join us live. second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen a lot going on this morning. let's tell you where we are when it comes to the futures now. the dow down 158 points.

nasdaq off 142 points. looking at the s&p 500 off 30 points treasuries as well right now looking at the ten-year, 4.962% people thinking about risk these days two-year at 5.129%, joe. >> our parent and nbc parent comcast has results. profit came in at an adjusted dollar a share, 13 cents above estimates. revenue also topped consensus forecasts. you can see at first blush up about a percentage point on this the company emphasizing really that on almost all financial metrics it was able to exceed analyst expectations, including consolidated revenue, adjusted ebitda, free cash flow, as we just mentioned, earnings per share. it is now reporting in two different -- i think this -- is this first or second quarter since that change went into

effect >> second. >> second quarter, yeah. >> connectivity and platform revenue, that's -- i think of that as like the pipes, is it not, if you can -- >> yeah. >> and then content is the other side of things including the theme park and everything else you can see here that there was a -- you look at some of the numbers, for example, the revenue growth in that second -- in the latter division that we were talking about kind of anemic, right? we may not be in an overall recession, but there was an advertising recession in certain parts of the economy and maybe we're just starting to come out of it i thought some of the peacock -- some of the peacock results and certainly a lot of growth -- >> subscribers up 80%. 28 million. >> i don't know what the -- >> revenue up 64%. >> i don't know what the actual bottom line numbers, but it is narrower, the losses are narrower than they were before. >> which is what they said was going to be the case. >> i don't think we specifically

know the -- >> i don't think that was broken out specifically, no you see churn or anything we like to look at? it just hit. i'm sure that the company always points out not chasing unprofitable cable -- >> subscribers. >> -- subscribers at this point. we look at how much worse it is than last year cord cutting is something you can identify in almost every quarter. at this point, up about .8%. >> they point out their connectivity and platforms customer relationships overall up 40,000 to 52.3 million. >> i think the optimistic take is if you already think we have been in an advertising recession, that you may be coming to the other side of it that's where you have to hope is the case on that side. >> and then the other part is think if you were just -- we talked about, if you were just

the content side >> right. >> if you didn't have the base for a lot of your growth in your business being -- good to be in the pipes. i would rather be this media combination of media assets than maybe some other >> worth pointing out, comcast parent company of cnbc. >> right i'm being positive. >> just want to -- >> too positive? >> no, just -- >> you could be more positive. >> i just gave you the optimistic take on what the -- >> okay. you're right. >> the stock up by about 35 cents this morning in a down market we'll continue to keep an eye on that and other earnings coming in in the meantime, the government is going to be releasing the first reading of the third quarter gdp. that's coming up at 8:30 eastern time less than an hour and a half from now steve liesman joins with us a preview of what to expect and we're looking for some pretty big numbers, steve >> yeah. becky, we're going to get what for some in the market is the troubling news, the economy did

very well in the third quarter the fed said it thinks the economy has to slow down in order to bring inflation down. and ease back on interest rates. gdp seen accelerated to 4.7% in the third quarter. that's up from an average, you can see there of 2.3% overthe prior three quarters it is more than double what is called the estimated potential of the economy, that is a growth rate seen as being noninflationary. the fact is the economic resilience we are seeing in the u.s. means that you have to adjust your distribution of probabilities around forward inflation higher than before how can you not when we have q3 gdp at 5%? well, despite that widespread view, inflation has come down fairly sharply, even while the economy has grown at or above potential as you saw there and unemployment stayed low. that raises questions about the fed's general view of the need for slower growth to bring down price increases. the response has been that the

easy part of the inflation reduction has happened, you brought back the supply chains the hard part getting back to 2% and the target is going to require slower growth and some gains in the unemployment rate well, behind the economic strength, a consumer that won't quit estimates for gdp this quarter have been raised from near zero to nearly 5% with upside surprise on retail sales, you can see there in the past three months but business spending is also expected this morning to show that it was healthy. but forecasters are holding on to their outlook for the economy to slow sharply in the coming months, the market will apparently only celebrate the gdp number this morning if it is below estimates or in the future when it is lousy, not when we get good strong growth, becky. >> all right, steve. i guess we still keep going through this whole thing how do we keep waiting for this recession, thinking that it is going to be here, talking about sectors that have or are in recession, whether that be retail, whether that be

advertising, and then still be looking at numbers like this how do you explain all of that >> it gets a little boring, i think. i have to chronicle it we get the -- >> that's never stopped you before >> ignore him, steve, keep going. >> when joe says ignore him, that's a new one >> no, ignore me ignore me. that was -- if anyone had said that, i would have said that it nothing to do with you. that's what i said >> it is okay. but the point -- >> just an easy pitch. >> we keep chronicling this slowdown put together the rapid update, we put the average of forecasting together, we started off, it was either negative or 0.3 the beginning of this quarter and then slowly it ticks up 2%, 3%, 4%, and this keeps happening. i guess at some point they're going to be right and i'm not saying the market shouldn't

worry about 5% ten-year yields i feel like at some point, when it -- the data comes in strong, it is okay to, i guess, celebrate it i don't know if that means buy the consumer staples, but we keep thinking the consumer is going to give it up. i'm just not sure that's going to happen because i really think that people think it is all tied to the savings from the pandemic and the extra money that was given. at some point, you look to the wages people are earning and decent wages, even though over time they haven't necessarily kept pace with inflation, but a 4%, 5% rate, you get that in your pocket, you go out and spend, you look at universal this morning, or comcast, which is, of course, owns nbc and cnbc, as andrew correctly noted, i'm not sure that's the upper crust of the population filling the theme parks, right i think people are out spending. >> you can talk about the 25% increase that uaw workers will get at ford, that will probably be matched by the other big

three. and then kind of moves down the supply chain too so maybe the pay raises pick up from the savings that we had during the pandemic. you're very right, steve, to point it out. >> i'm going to be wrong about this, and somebody is going to run this clip, i will say joe lavorgna has a piece out saying every time before you get a huge decline in gdp you get a big number before that but that doesn't mean that every big number is followed by a decline. >> weren't you a little surprised about, like, bill gross and ackman and both of them said, you know -- >> dalio and all these guys. >> the same week we're getting the 5%, maybe, 5% print, they're saying, oh, my god, i'm definitely not short bonds anymore, because they're going to be a buy, rates are coming down after the economy sharply -- not contracts, but starts slowing much more sharply. that seems to be what they're saying. >> i don't know.

as art cashin so beautifully said, the end of the world happens only once. you have to time it very carefully. >> that's true >> steve, thank you. we'll see you later this morning. >> we're now actually nserg e possibility. >> yes. up next, presidential hopeful nikki haley will join us on the israel-hamas war, the new house speaker and much more. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

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breaking overnight, israel saying they conducted a targeted raid on terrorist sites in north gaza using tanks before leaving the area described the raid as preparations for the next stage of combat. the idf saying soldiers struck numerous terrorist terror infrastructure and antitank missile launch posts and it is our pleasure to introduce our next guest, u.s. support for israel is crucial and that there should be no backing down until hamas is eliminated joining us now, former u.s. ambassador to the u.n., nikki haley, also former governor of south carolina, and a 2024 presidential candidate, right there with governor desantis. >> we're going for the big guy. >> what is it? if you want something done -- >> if you want something said, ask a man. if you want something done, ask a woman. >> it seems like i'm

undercutting myself in some -- >> or speaking the truth. >> or speaking the truth i can tie it all together in this way we wanted to talk to you about the new speaker and the chaos in the house. the new speaker mentioned we need to get aid okayed for israel, but left out ukraine in that whole equation and we have seen president biden wants to tie the two together what is the right thing to do? >> the one thing i'll say is america has to get this right. the world is on fire and america has to get this right. the right thing to do is we were there for ukraine, because it is a pro-american freedom-loving country that was invaded by a thug and that thug has said that once he takes ukraine, poland and the baltics are next those are nato countries we're about preventing war so you got ukraine then you have israel and we see what is happening in the middle east we do both if you live ukraine, then the next step is they're going to

want to leave israel we already accepted defeat in afghanistan. that was horrible the way it happened we cannot leave ukraine. you can do both. and we should do both. it is the right thing to do. and so anybody that is saying, oh, now you have to pick between ukraine and israel, that's an absolute mistake you have to always be there for our friends and we should never be so arrogant to think we don't need friends on september 12th we needed a lot of friends we got to quit talking like it is september 10th. >> what do you think the endgame, though, is for israel because hamas is as much about individual actors as it is almost about an idea and i wonder, just long-term, how you even get to an endgame >> that idea has a lot of actors and proponents >> no, no, i -- >> you see it around the world, clearly. >> but keep in mind -- >> but also the backlash against how -- however you would get to

hamas, however you would hold these individuals accountable, there is going to be losses along the way and the question is how do you do that in a way that actually makes the world come together around this? >> you're not going to -- look, israel has always tried to defend itself and israel has always been hit because of it. and what i would say at the united nations and what i'll say today if that happened to any other country, there would be hell to pay. but because it is israel, everybody is, like, don't do too much we should be doing three things. one, support israel, whatever they need, whenever they need it, no questions asked two, eliminate hamas don't weaken them, eliminate them, because if we don't, they will do this again and, three, do whatever it takes to get our hostages home but see the bigger picture of all of this. there would be no hamas without iran and look at what the bigger story of this all is, you have china and russia naming themselves unlimited partners, iran is their junior partner

china is importing all its oil from iran. sending billions of dollars their way that they support terrorism with russia is getting drones and missiles from iran look at the three, what do they all have in common they all want to destroy the west and they all hate america. >> the economists, the latest edition has this question, wondering if we will be stretched too thin to fight a potential three-pronged war, the two that exist now and add china to the mix what happens is there a way to do this without creating world war iii >> you look at ukraine and israel if we just dealt with those two, that's only 20% of what biden's green subsidy bill did. >> but if we deal with what is happening with hamas and you brought up iran, does that mean we deal with iran too and how do you not start world war iii? >> look at how iran is act they're trying to -- qatar, the fact they negotiated hostages,

we had four prayers answered, we have 210 prayers to go why are they doing this? they're trying to avoid iran being embarrassed by israel going in and taking out hamas. they're sending strikes from hezbollah. >> but that's the question i agree with you israel should be able to defend itself i just wonder how we do this without -- you think iran will step down if hamas is eliminated in gaza? >> you do it with strength first of all, we don't know what iran is going to do. but we don't run from fear what we do is we eliminate hamas. don't forget that they rounded up -- >> we say eliminate halmas, are we going after hamas leadership in qatar. >> we should. >> people say they want to go after hamas and then the -- the true domino effect is real you have to go into qatar, a country that says they're our friend, and you have to do things that would be very, very

complicated. i'm not saying you don't do them, i'm saying it gets -- >> that's exactly what we did with isis. do you think we didn't go take out the heads of isis? we did that wherever they were we don't go to one region. we go and take out the people who are doing this the reason we took out soleimani. you take out anyone who wants to destroy america or our friends and we have to start getting this conversation right. i look at what is happening on college campuses and thank goodness for the donors pulling their money or people leaving boards, but what are all of them saying on college campuses first, there should be freedom of speech, but you don't get freedom of hate and what we're seeing now is they're talking about occupation is there occupation in gaza? there is absolutely occupation in gaza, by hamas. there is not an israeli or jewish person in gaza. >> some of the same people saying you don't get to have freedom of hate, you're allowed to have freedom of speech, now they're saying you need to have freedom of hate, some of the

same people that didn't, you know that would apply that rule in one setting are now saying -- you to think we should be doxxing students and their lives can be affected in the future if they show up at a -- >> i tell my children now, everything you put on social media and everything you say is going to dictate who hires you and whether you get a job. >> bill akron won't hire someone he sees at a rally or -- >> i wouldn't. i wouldn't hire someone that is celebrating hamas. i wouldn't hire someone who is going to go out there and spew hatred because i don't know what they're going to do in my company. what i'll tell you is i think we should revoke all the tax exempt status of universities that are allowing this to happen in the first place. their job is to -- >> your competitors did that in florida. >> you should. any university that doesn't protect students, any university that allows hate to spew, you should go and pull their tax exempt status. colleges don't get the right to do this. >> we fight tooth and nail for

increases in defense spending. and president biden -- there have been small increases. is that enough and i'll tell you why i thought about this iran is front and center you mentioned the hideous triangle between russia, iran and china. down the road, is china our biggest fear >> china is our number one biggest security threat. >> to keep increasing defense? isn't that going to be something we deal with for the next 50 years? >> understand what deterrence is why is it that the taiwanese want us to support the ukrainians they know if ukraine wins, china won't go into taiwan why does ukraine want us to support israelis they know if we support israelis, it is -- >> it is all linked together. >> it is a bigger story. so that's the reason why america has to get this right. >> how do you sell the country on we're back to being the world's police officer that's what you're effectively arguing we have to be. >> no, we're about protecting americans and protecting our friends, not the police officer.

we're not telling people how to live or what to do in their other countries, we're telling them not to kill americans, we're telling them not to kill israelis and we're telling them we're going to eliminate terrorists wherever we see them. it is hugely important we stay true to that. >> you have a diagram of how 2024 plays out in your favor i don't want to bore you with where we are right now do you think it would be a problem if you have donald trump or joe biden as president in 2024 with all the issues you're talking about? >> 75% of the country doesn't want a rematch of biden and trump. >> how do we get there what is going to -- >> i win i win. it is that simple. so now we are second place in new hampshire and south carolina we're tied for second place in iowa i've got one more fellow to go after. but let me tell you something, if ever you look at the world stage and see what's happening, we have to have a new generational leader. we can't deal with the grievances of the past, the

headlines of the past. what happens we have this horrific tragedy in israel and donald trump is going to sit there and talk about an old issue he's got with netanyahu. you don't do that to a country who just brutally lost so manufacture their people but he's continuing to -- >> he's got more grievances with georgia election officials than he has -- >> he has grievances with everybody. i'm saying we don't have time for grievances we have a country to save. >> what do you ascribe the situation in the house to at this point the leadership members of the house who all ran and said they wanted to be the next speaker couldn't get coalition from the rest of the republican caucus that is there. again, the guy who is the speaker at this point voted not to fund ukraine. how do you take that message and convince republicans before you even get to the main stage >> i think, first of all, we have to look at the fact that the last couple of weeks was a total embarrassment for republicans. i mean, that is not what republicans need to do when i was governor, i had a republican house, a republican

senate that butted heads all the time i would call them into my office and say we're not leaving until we figure this out they shouldn't have gone home, now that there is a speaker, i pray he's successful we need him to be successful america cannot be distracted we saw what happened when israel was distracted america can't think that can't happen here. >> he's a close confidante and friend of president trump's and very involved with trying to keep him in office after the last election. >> all eyes are on him we'll all be watching his leadership and, you know, it is different when you are a voter of one, representing a small district. whener of the house and represent everyone you watch out for the good of the entire conference. that's what we'll watch. i want him to be successful. america needs to be strong and not distracted. >> getting good backing. one of our guests, frequent guests, we love judd gregg, senator judd gregg said the nation needs nikki haley calls her a strong leader who

can win. a few more of those and maybe this -- you still got that elephant in the room i don't -- the numbers just don't add up at this point. >> that's what everybody says when they ask me well, how are you going to break out of the field. and then they ask me how are you going to beat desantis and now trump. the goal post keeps moving i'm telling you, you're going to see, it is slow and steady wins the race we're disciplined. we're focused. the people are coming with us. >> one more, because i have -- i can't deny her, you called yourself a union buster. what about this deal with ford and the ongoing negotiations between uaw and gm and stellantis we like when people get raises, nikki. they didn't get raises during the financial crisis good thing or bad thing? >> i was a union buster in south carolina because i made sure that the workers had direct contact with the people who hired them i didn't want a middle man in there. i told my owners, i want you to

make sure that you use your people to find your solutions, that you take care of them and respect them for who they are and you have, you know, family time for them to know when they're going to go to church and let them know how to have family picnics with the company so they can feel invested. i made sure direct communication was there. what happens is when the direct communication goes away, a union buster or a union comes in and it is all about the union and then making their money. i want people to make money. i want manufacturers to manufacture. we got to get the middle men out of there what i will say is this is all a fact that if you have president who is most pro union president you've ever seen, you're going to have more strikes like this and we're seeing that play out why did this happen? because joe biden was so adamant about having as many electric cars as we can by 2030 that it caused a panic within the automobile manufacturing sector. that's what did this and not only that, it is not

even realistic to have electric cars by them we don't have the infrastructure i'm not talking about charging stations electric cars are heavy. our roads and bridges aren't cut out to have that many electric cars sitting on the road at the same time. we need to start being realistic and look in moderation at the way we do anything any extremes are always going to be bad for the country. >> you got to go you are headed over to "the view." >> not that, no. >> this is your -- this is your place, i think seriously. instead of -- you reach the best people here. we love having you on. >> you're so nice. thank you. i appreciate it. >> not too nice. i can be not so nice i can think of -- >> ilove the tough questions keep bringing them >> governor, ambassador nikki haley, thank you "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. how long was the longest nfl football game ever played? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues hospital bill for prime?! gaaaaap! did you just say gap?!

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seconds, between the miami dolphins and kansas city chiefs on christmas day in 1971 welcome back to "squawk box. i'm dominic chu with the premarket movers big tech story, the big story this morning, meta platforms down 3% right now premarket. just around 300,000 shares of volume the social media parent company of facebook, instagram, threads, whatsapp, better than expected quarterly results but guidance was slightly below consensus estimates and the company offered cautious xhencommentary we want to check in with shares of google parent company alphabet, which are building on yesterday's post earnings losses, tied to slower growth in the cloud services business. microsoft lower by a percent in a negative tape. but it did manage a strong 3% gain yesterday following its earnings report, better than expected trends in its azure cloud unit at play there

that's the tech trade. overall, the recent headlines led to a bigger slide in the nasdaq composite that now had its worst day since february 21st yesterday. currently around 11% below the levels that we saw at the highs so far this year and it is just a hair above its 200 day moving average or longer term trend line. that level currently by the way sits at 12,754 look at that 12,821 nasdaq composite. on the earnings front this morning, shares of u.p.s. down reporting better than expected profits, weaker than expected revenues it also cut its full year revenue forecast, shares down 3% southwest down 5% after the discount airline operator reported inline profits slightly worse than expected revenues southwest was hit by among other things higher labor costs and fuel costs, shares down 2.5% and we'll end with a check on

merck, moving between gains and losses right now, just around 3,000 shares of volume, better profits and revenues than expected here helped along by stronger performance of its keytruda cancer drug, gardasil and other treatments watch the merck shares keep it here we have mohamed el-erian to talk markets and today's economic data points, big conversation coming up. "squawk box" will be right back. keep it right here endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™.

the uaw and ford reaching a tentative deal to end a nearly six-week strike with the automaker. phil lebeau joins us with more >> in 2019, when the uaw reached an agreement with the big three, the basic increase in pay was 6%, two lump sum increases of 3% there were a couple of 4% lump sum bonuses in the other years you're looking at 6% keep that in mind as i show you what this tentative deal with ford works out to in terms of percentages. right off the bat, once this gets ratified, an 11% immediate raise. then a 25% pay hike over 4

years. and that's over 30% when you factor in cost of living adjustments. the starting full time base wage is going to increase 64% here is uaw president shawn fain talking with the membership last night. >> ford knew what was coming for them on wednesday if we didn't get a deal that was check mate. on day 40 of the stand-up strike, we reached a historic agreement. >> so, what happens next and how much is this strike going to be costing ford we heard from gm earlier this week, about a billion dollars and that tab is still going. the estimate from wells fargo is that when it is all said and done, depending on how quickly the workers can get back on the job, we'll talk about that in a bit, about $1.9 billion is the estimate from wells fargo. that is the estimate in terms of the cost there remember, ford is reporting its q3 results after the bell today, lots of discussion at that time about the cost of the uaw

strike we'll get perhaps a more definitive number and then the analyst call, plenty of questions for jim farley on that call about what happens. when you look at ford's consensus, the estimate on the street, the expectation is that q3 profits will be up about 50% compared to the same quarter last year. real quick, gm and stellantis, those talks continue with the uaw. the uaw earlier this week took out the two biggest plants for gm and stellantis, the gm plant in arlington where they make full size suvs and the stellantis full size truck plant in sterling heights, michigan, outside of detroit the pressure is still on with them, and you can bet the uaw is going to continue pushing and pushing hard on both gm and stellantis we'll see how long it takes to get the deal ratified by the rank and file, now that ford and the uaw have a tentative agreement. back to you. >> phil, one down, it looks like, two to go. thanks investors are paying close

attention to the slide in technology stocks and the volatility in the treasury markets. joining us now to talk more about that is mohamed el-erian, chief economic adviser at allianz, the pressure of queens college at cambridge university and the co-author of the new book "permia crisis: a plan to fix a fractured world. let's talk about the economy we have the gdp coming out in just about less than an hour's time from now. that's expected to be a strong number, but there are so many questions swirling about the economy. where do you think we stand right now? >> good morning, becky i think the number is going to highlight two things one is u.s. exceptionalism continues. not only is it going to be double, more than double the weight of 2.1% for the second quarter, but it outpaces all of the advanced economies the u.s. has been the growth engine for the world it also highlights the challenges the fed faces but what we should not do is

take this as a signal of the all clear for 2024 as you know, i always pushed back on the notion that we would have a recession in 2023 i'm a little bit worried about 2024. >> early 2024, late 2024, how do you see this playing out >> it is hard to tell. we have the rundown in savings, that's the big issue secondly what has been happening in the interest rate market is really problematic it is problematic for businesses it is problematic for governments, for the fed it is problematic for households and that is a significant headwind to economic activity. >> okay. let's talk about the volatility we have seen in the treasury market because that's been dictating the stock market moves lately too where do you think the direction is headed? what happens next in terms of the yields and why >> so we know two things for

sure one, we lost the anchors to that market we lost the economic anchor, we lost the policy anchor, and we lost the technical anchor. second, when it comes to simple supply and demand, there is two things that are here and are going to stay here the fed being a net seller and the government issuing more debt so the question mark and you saw that in the auctions yesterday is who is going to buy and that question of buyers isn't going to go away anytime soon you'll hear all sorts of images of catching a falling knife and things like that and it is a problem because buyers are hesitant and they should be hesitant in view of what is happening to the supply of government debt >> i'll give you a couple of points to push back on that. first of all, people are reluctant to be buyers governments are reluctant to be buyers unless they look at the potential for conflict around the globe, geopolitics may

dominate and push them to a position where they say we look for a safe haven u.s. treasury is still going to be that, correct >> it should be that, but let me give you some numbers. before the conflict started in the middle east, the ten-year treasury was at 4.80 today at 4.97. we still face the risk of escalation of that crisis. there has been two big puzzles and they speak to how unsettling the volatility and the u.s. treasury has been. one is you haven't had it been the safe haven we haven't seen the flight to quality and the flight to safety that you would expect, given what is happening in the world the second thing that is equally counterintuitive, you have people talking about bitcoins, about equity being the safe asset because that last confidence in government bonds being the safe assets, because of the nature of this interest

rate risk. so, yes, it should be the safe haven, it should have already benefited, but the reality is that the ten-year yield today is a good 17 basis points higher than it was before this latest conflict erupted >> mohamed, the fed says it is going to keep rates higher for longer i believe them if they think inflation is still a problem they will not lower rates, but if push comes to shove and there is nobody else buying treasuries, i dispute your first point, your first given, that the fed is going to be a seller of treasuries. i think if push comes to shove, they would be more likely to stop selling treasuries than they would be to lower rates >> that's a possibility. the question mark will be does -- do we have both economic weakening and do we have some sort of scare of a market accident if we have those two things, then rates will come down. look, messing around with qt is not that simple.

what the fed has wanted, what the ecb wants, what all central banks want is that the reduction in balance sheet be like watching paint dry predictable, gradual, nothing to see there. that's what they want. >> they want that, but they also want markets to not react in a horrible upheaval and i don't know which one would win out if those issues all came to a head. >> so, we had a press conference next week, that will be a great question to ask steve. okay as to how flexible is their approach to qt right now >> mohamed, your new book is "perma crisis: a plan to fix a fractured world. how do you fix a fractured world? >> fix three things that are all fixable. this is a book full of hope. one is you alter the growth models to grow more inclusively and respectful of the planet two, you stop making these policy mistakes we made. and, third, and perhaps most

difficult, you try to enhance cooperation, global cooperation where there is a global challenge. these are feasible there are engineering solutions for all three. we need the leadership. >> i was being tongue in cheek to ask you to answer that question in 40 seconds intel making progress in the turn around attempt. will new rivals with arm-based chip designs bury the chipmakers hopes? that's the question of the morning. jon fortt will join us with that story after the break. before we head to the break, quick check on cnbc's parent company comcast, after reporting results earlier this hour. moving down mainly, rgal2% this morning on that news we'll talk more about that and dig into the numbers in a bit.

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still to come, jon fortt takes a closer look at intel's turn around. and we are counting down to the first read on third quarter gdp. futures ahead of that number haven't been very spectacular this morning down day yesterday s&p futures down by 31 the nasdaq down by 143 rk'll have the numbers and the maet reaction for that data, that's coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern time "squawk box" will be right back.

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.. intel took a tumble this week, after reports that nvidia plans to complete for a share of the cpu chips that power personal computers some of the new rivals are arm-based chip designs, that is the turn around hopes, they need a turn around. john ford is here. what do you think? >> intel's turn around, wolves

are circling, qualcomm announced a new pc chip on tuesday, expecting eye popping performance claims, versus intel's processors and apple's m2s, apple has personal computer news coming on monday about its mac lineup, where it might unveil faster chips. all of that is a problem because intel is trying to climb out of a hole it dug for itself with manufacturing and design mistakes under ceo pat gel singer, the chip maker spending tens of billions of dollars. intel is trying to stand up a newfound ri business that would not only ramp up its own chips intel needs a reliable business to keep paying the bills here's the thing, rising interest rates, labor shortages and product delays, this assault from qualcomm, nvidia and apple, probably just the last straw all the pressure from the biggest names in tech, how can

intel fund a turn around tune in. >> i can do this but, yes, but. there's another side to this. >> is there? >> i thought there was only one side to each story >> well, on the other hand, we'll just go right there. this competition in pc chips just validates intel's entire turn around strategy 2 1/2 years ago, pat gelsinger comes in as ceo, we're going to fix twice as fast as we have while fixing our playbook. while we're fixing the problem where we couldn't make the best chips for yourselves, we're going to start a business making chips for other people, and do a design for ai chips to catch up with nvidia. critics said slow down, fix your design problems and give up the manufacturing stuff. it's too hard to fix that at once is chip demand going to be that strong in five years here we are halfway into the

attempt, and the artificial intelligence frenzy as generated enormous demand for chips. everybody is looking to make custom ai chips, apple, microsoft, amazon and geopolitical tensions mean they would like options outside of israel and taiwan. if intel had tried to make it safe and make its own pc chips, rivals would have come to eat its lunch. this risky turn around effort is the only strategy we could have. >> is there a scenario where intel can still do it? pull it off? >> yes, but it's about execution, and i think the next six to nine months, it will be clear whether there is a shot. not so much the details of this particular earnings report but them saying we're on track for five notes in five years, if they can say that, making enough progress on the fabs, it's possible >> has the ceo got this unwavering support of the board at this point, do you think? >> it's always hard to see

what's happening beneat the sur -- beneath the surface with a board. i think, i really do think this, the questions about whether the strategy were the right one are pretty much answered the strategy was right. >> execution. >> it's just can they execute. >> so the big question was around the strategy. hey. >> who has to take the responsibility for just the five-year under performance. is it longer than that for intel, and just not being in the right place to start with? >> there are a number of people. it was a massive miscalculation on one particular tool and meth of manufacturing that's not going to be ready in time. >> who was running the company >> brian crizanich, kind of a manufacturing guy, and they got that wrong under his watch >> just trying to clean everything up. >> he is, indeed >> got to plug the "on the other

hand" news letter. get you a qr code. you can scan it. you can do it with just one hand or you can type in with two hands. g gets you easy access to the weekly poll. weigh in, let me know which side you agree with more. will weight loss drugs shrink the market for diabetes treatments i was talking about the devices there. 40% said yes 60% said no. >> all right, thanks, jon. coming up on the other side of this, ecb's decision on interest rates we'll talk about it plus, the latest out of washington, against google antitrust adviser to the biden administration, tim wu will be with us. breaking economic data gdp jobs data, it's all out in the next hour. we'll bring you those numbers. market reaction, don't go

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good morning, more big name earnings rolling in. we're going to bring you results from ups, comcast, honey well and more the auto workers union says it is a tentative deal with ford to end the six-week strike at the company. no word on gm and stellantis, we'll bring you details straight ahead. and we're 30 minutes away from potentially market moving economic data. we're going to get you a read. the first one there on third

quarter gdp, all of this as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin it's gdp day. >> it is it's gdp half hour we haven't really talked about it that much we'll get the first read on third quarter gdp. it's going to be four and change, five and change, according to atlanta fed's at 5.4% the bananas are back, is that it we get the little gnats. >> because of you. >> because of me no, tgsit's not because of me. >> i do have these bananas

>> they're good for you. potassium and stuff like that. >> u.s. equity futures. >> that's what we're going to be eating soon. you can see, we've got dow jones down about 149 nasdaq down 147. not a great day yesterday. there's a yield curve. we're back closing in on perhaps 5% again we had a brief respite earlier if the week, down about 480, 485. but it's closing in on that level again in the market, stock market equities don't like it that much when we're above 5% on the ten-year some of the earnings, maybe not surprising that tech couldn't be good enough to justify all the big moves. >> right and i would say earnings have come in strong for the quarter it's the guidance that's been a concern for the most part. it was the cloud division at one of the companies that reported overnight, it was concerns about what the future of the advertising market might be,

what the future of the economy might bring. in the meantime, the united auto workers union and ford reaching an agreement to end the current six-week strike. that's according to the union which made an announcement last night, including a 25% pay raise and cumulatively raise the top wage at $40 an hour. starting wages at 70%. $28 an hour. in a video posted online, uaw president shawn fain claims the value went up 50%. the deal still must win approval by local uaw leaders and be ratified by ford's union workers. following the news, grrm and stellantis reached statements. gm shares up by about 1 3/4% stellantis shares down by 1.6%. >> we want to get over to dom chu. he is tracking a lot of corporate earnings that have been rolling in all morning. dom. >> i can't get to all of them

but the headlines so far making waves. we'll start with transportation and logistics. ups down 4 1/2% on just around 30,000 shares of volume, after it reported better than expected profits on slightly weaker than expected revenues. ups did cut the full-year revenue outlook, hence some of the weakness hurt by customer demand and those shares down 4 1/2% next up, shares of comcast, down roughly 1 1/2% just around 85,000 shares of volume, down 2 1/2%. the cable broad band, media entertainment giant and parent company of our network, cnbc, reported better than expected profits and revenues comcast was helped along by other things better theme park results, and the additional of wireless subscribers, shares down 2 1/2%. merck down fractionally. it was an earnings and revenue beat, thanks in part to better

drug prices, so those shares up 1% they have been going back and forth. and kwwe'll end on bristol-myers squibb, top analyst estimates on revenues bristol myers said it would take longer for sales forecasts, down 4 1/2% i'll send things over to you >> very good, dom. thank you. joining us for more on the latest earnings and market sarat sethi, a cnbc contributor, has anything changed your world view with what we have seen in the first two or three weeks of reports. >> it's interesting you, look at companies, anyone says our next couple of quarters is a little bit uncertain, you're going to see your stock sell off. you see that with meta

so unless you say, hey, we're going to make our earnings the next couple of quarters. it's sell first, ask questions later, and honestly when you have a ten-year or 5%. there are other options. the short-term trade is, if i don't think the stock is going to do well for the next quarters, let's move out >> do you believe companies that say, yeah, everything's great for the next couple of quarters? it seems like there's so much uncertainty. you're sticking your neck out if you're telling me everything is great. >> you really are. it's kind of the, hey, if we think we're going to make our expectations for a year or two it's much better than saying we're going to stick by the next quarter. the market is saying, we have other alternatives if we don't like what you're doing, especially i think they were put on such a pedestal, it's going to be very hard for them to maintain these multiples, and you're seeing that spread through the market as well. >> i don't know when headline issues are the most important thing for the stock market, but

when you say uncertainty, are we still talking about the fed and interest rates or are we talking about this world we're leaving in >> i think it's a combination. >> and they can influence each other. wars can influence the fed and the economy. >> it's multiple now not just one, and the uncertainty there. it rolls over into the price of oil. right? and then it rolls over into our interest rates and the uncertainty on the interest rates was causing volatility in the market because we just don't know are we higher for longer, or are we going higher, too, and if you get strong prints in gdp and the inputs for inflation, you have to fed that stock. and in that sense, you know, multiples have to come down. valuations have to come down and in the short-term, you know, the interesting part for this, joe, is you can find good companies here you have to be patient if you're holding them or want to go buy them >> you can say there haven't been any major disappointments

in the last three months it's mostly concern about the next six months. >> it really is concern about the next three to six months where is earnings going to go. where is cash flow going to go and you have an election season coming too you have that uncertainty as well i think once we get some clarity on interest rates. i think the market will adjust quickly, and you'll see activity every bank has talked about one of the reasons we can't do anything is because people can't get their arms around capital markets. >> when there was no speaker of the house, it was possible we were going to run into sheettina government did no one believe it, doesn't matter. >> nobody had to have one, we're going to be spending money giving the money up for defense as well. >> for defense, but it really, i never saw a blip either way in the stocks or bonds. >> i think the market is starting to live with that once you know that's expected,

it's the other stuff. >> is this last print in gdp could we be a half or a third of what we print in the next quarter? >> i think so. i think we're peaking in terms of economic activity, not peaking in terms of inflationary activity wages are going up you saw today, ford, i mean, that's going to flow through to gm. >> it has to flow through. it can't be the big three, a couple of companies or unions can't call the shots overall in wages. but there is wage pressure across the board. >> there's wage pressure, and you have seen it in the autos, the airlines, ups, i think that's going to be -- the thing to watch for is not the gdp growth t it's the input growth of where are commodities going to be, and what's sustainable versus short-term. >> based in boston >> am i? >> i'm based here. >> you are but great golf courses there >> and in pennsylvania >> yes

>> oakmont >> i won't mention the one up there in boston. >> you've got a good one in jersey too. >> i do. but it doesn't have a name, the one up there, because it was the original oops, i guess, okay, never mind. sarat, thank you. when we come back, breaking economic data. we're going to get that first look at third quarter gdp, we'll get september durable goods, weekly jobless claims and a whole bunch of data. google is getting ready to begin its defense. that antitrust trial from the government, we will ask former white house adviser tim wu what to expect. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

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we are watching google parent alphabet this morning you see that stock off by about 2 1/3%, coming off the worst day since the start of the covid pandemic alphabet was the worst

performing stock in the s&p 500. spooked investors a little bit you saw a big selloff. you can see that drop right now. for the one year, stock sup, though, about 29%. in the meantime, the department of justice wrapping its case in the landmark antitrust trial against google now it's the tech giant's turn to make its case in court. joining us right now is columbia law school professor, tim wu, he served as an adviser to the biden administration, and he's known as an architect of its antitrust policy let's talk through where we stand right now. the government made its case how strong of a blow do you think they made in terms of trying to go after this? how strong is their case >> i think the case is strong, and i think one of the advantages of the case is relatively simple. there's this big number at the center, which isn't public. >> it is now >> oh, is it public? go ahead oh, i thought you meant the $2 billion >> yeah, some huge number going

from google to apple in exchange for the monopoly search engine i think that has been the core line, pretty straightforward division of markets, monopoly maintenance. >> i will say the government has persuaded me to some extent over the course of this time. i people pay for the ins of grocery store aisles too there's a lot more people who can pay for the ins of grocery is aisles microsoft saying it couldn't compete with those kinds of numbers. as a result, you didn't see duck duck go or whatever that one is. you didn't see bing, you didn't see other ones that were ever out on that. though they may have tried in the past, they couldn't get access. >> they had strong evidence from people, smaller start-ups, search engines, branch, different types of technologies that people hadn't seen before tried to get started i'm sorry, we've got this deal

with google. it started to hurt the little guys, and i think that helps the case that came out later. >> how does this hurt consumers? >> consumers are always helped by choice. almost every market in the united states, you have two or three things, and, you know, google can get away with stuff they don't have to protect privacy. they don't have to lower what they charge to advertisers every product in america is slightly more expensive if they advertise on google. >> let me ask you to flip the script how would you defend google against what the government has said >> google's defense has always been that our search engine is the best the reason apple wants it is it's the best. the reason people don't like bing, we have smarter employees. we've sharpened the algorithm, it's not about scale it's all about getting exactly right, and that's why we're better >> which, you know, look, i will say in the past, when i've tried bing, it's ticked me off. it doesn't give me the search results i want why do you have

to pay $10 billion to keep people off if that's the case. >> would the world be worse with an apple engine that was competing? >> let me ask you a question. >> sure. >> would you feel differently, to me, the one fact that works on your side in a wholly different way is if they were still paying apple, but apple was allowed to develop its own search engine at the same time, because effectively what they did was have a standstill agreement with apple as to what they would do themselves on the search that's what came out during the case, that is the most interesting piece. apple said we're not going to do anything more than we would do in 2016, i want to say if that piece was not there. apple could develop something, if they wanted to, but now make it more interest to go suggest they decide not to not contractual they decided not to they just decided we're not doing it, would that change the dynamic to you of the situation?

>> a little bit. it could be that apple, like bing is unable to realize they can't do anything well enough because of the default position being paid for, or maybe they still think they make enough money. it does make it a little bit different. >> to me, that's the most unattractive fact in basically the whole case, if you're google. >> is that a decent remedy that the government would accept? >> i think the government should be asking for some sign of break up to begin with they shouldn't be asking for chrome, you know, to be sold by google you know, saying knock it off is not a bad next thing you know. >> i have to say, every remedy we have talked to you about from amazon and beyond, you go directly to breakup. these two companies are too big to exist you told me breakup should be on the table for amazon and that should be there. if you think the government remedy should be break up, do you think every one of these technology companies is too big to not be a monopoly

>> i think there is a problem when companies get too large and tend to start to stifle innovation i think we've seen that over and over again. >> the size and scale is also capital. that's a piece we don't talk about. is capital unto itself - monop monopolistic lever you say spinoff or sell something to chrome, the chrome unto itself, if chrome is eliminated because i think underneath it you're saying sell you tube separately i mean, i think it's a much broader sort of story, i think, underneath what you're saying? >> you know, i think if you want competition in search, you want competition in ai, you need more places you can get started, and right now, we need to get started and search, everything is owned by google everything in ai is owned by google or microsoft, and i think there needs to be more openings

for more small vc funded, whatever companies to get their start and that means, you know, when you have a couple after actors controlling the entry points, we don't have competition! controlling entry points or controlling capital? the open ai story is one about capital. who could provide tense of billions of dollars of access to capital and compute effectively to make this thing work, right and you're having a similar thing happening now. amazon is getting into the game, why are they getting into the game they have the compute and they have the capital to support this i don't know if there's a venture capital firm or series of firms that are prepared to put up $30 billion right now for one of these ai models yet maybe. >> i'll say two things i think capital goes where there's opportunity, and where there's no opportunity, capital never goes if there's more than one place to get started, the internet in

the 90s, computer in the 80s, capital will go there. >> it's not just that these were the best operators they operate the best. >> one is true they're no longer the best. >> it didn't take the government to break down ibm. >> the government had a huge role in breaking ibm. >> the troubles they have had lately have been -- >> google also has problems, and the question is whether these one great companies are just locking everything up and preventing capital, which has always powered innovation, i agree, from exploding the opportunities that are there. >> a great fear of the government and over regulation, and over involvement and things like this. >> i agree we're not talking about -- we're talking about law enforcement, we're talking about opening -- >> in the eye of the beholder, a monopoly is in the eye of a beholder everyone wants a monopoly, you can't violate the law. >> you want a legal monopoly. >> i think google and amazon are monopolies

>> the operative word is i think. >> i. >> i think a judge, the law will find that google is a monopolist their big claim is amazon competes in search that's the defense >> that's the most interesting thing that's probably developed in the last call it three, four, five years, is amazon has developed a massive search business, a different type of search business but a massive search business and if they were such of a monopoly, part of what you would say is that business doesn't exist the way it does. >> consumers look for a lot of stuff on google you can't find on amazon, like weather. where do you find nasdaq, i don't know, things like that. >> tim, i wanted to talk with you about meta and the attorneys general that are moving there. we're out of time today, but please come back i think that's a pretty interesting case that's brewing too. >> i'm very interested in that one too. >> tim wu, thank you. we're going to talk about

third quarter gdp numbers. change of the guard about morgan stanley, a top bank analyst about what it means, and the growing corporate fight about anti-semitism. jonathan greenblatt is going to be with us with an update as his organization tracks more harassment in the united states. as we head to a break, a headline from across the atlantic, the european central bank aouinnnncg it has left key benchmark opportunities unchanged. we'll talk about that when we come back after this

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big news on wall street. it was announced last night, morgan stanley announcing ted pick as the company's newest ceo, taking over after james gorman's 14-year tenure in the seat, move effective january 1st when gorman will become executive chairman, joining morgan stanley's board, to talk more about the drama, the succession of it all, wells fargo senior bank analyst mike mayo is here good morning to you. i was like, the smoke cleared and we saw who's now going to run this place an investment banker, no less, which is sort of an interesting pick given the direction that james gorman has moved the firm in since he took over that firm 14 years ago you like it? >> well, i think ted pick has done a phenomenal job on the institutional security sides that's banking and trading.

>> right >> remember, morgan stanley was days away failing during the global financial crisis, especially due to bad fixed income ted pick cut fixed income and grew it. he moved their whole trading business back to the leaders globally, on the banking side, he was involved in the ipos of google and black stone, so half the company, ted pick has done a great job on but there's a few issues here. number one, in the third quarter, morgan stanley was worst in class among the big five banks in his core business of markets and banks number two, the wealth management business, the inplows in the third quarter were among the worst recently and it raises at least a question whether they can get their $1 trillion in-flow target the next three years, and number three, the whole asset management business, i mean, they advanced close to the top. i don't quite understand how that deal fits in. so ted pick has done a great job at half the firm what does he bring to the other

half of the company. that's an issue. >> that's my question to you, which is to say here we have an investment banker. you said it's their core business, but the question is long-term, it's supposed to be asset management isn't that ultimately going to be the core business or no >> i estimate that the wealth and investment management business comprises 2/3 of their valuation of the stock so if you don't get that right, then they're in trouble. the other head wind they're facing the same rate head wind, that regional banks and other banks have faced morgan stanley is facing that. the big growth engine, the valuation driver of the stock is decelerating, and now you have someone at the top of the firm who doesn't have so much experience. >> first of all, it's worth giving a standing ovation to gorman if you look at the 14-year run, you would say pretty great the question is where do you think the puck is going next i know the puck is going to pick the question is what is pick

going to do or need to do with the puck >> the other issue is james gorman is not leaving. he's staying on as chairman, but it's executive chairman. i'm not sure what that executive means. >> it means he's actually still running the firm. >> is he a player, coach, does he get paid, that's the questions i have. >> executive chairman means you get paid you don't have to look at the filing for that. >> thank you, you saved me some work here. what happens if performance falls short at morgan stanley in the next few quarters or year. does james gorman get involved the road is littered, when the successor can't keep pace. the last 14 years, james gorman has done a great job nobody thought he would perform 14 years ago >> it's a miraculous thing there's certain ceos we don't give enough credit to. that guy deserves a lot of credit i think he's set the bar pretty high at this point the question is where does this business move to given how

transformed it's been. >> ted pick has big shoes to fill, absolutely i think institutional security, ted pick knows in spade, i think they want to get deeper market share, in wealth management, 1 trillion of net new assets in three years. the strategy is not changing, the management is changing, but it comes down to execution new players rearranged a little bit. >> are you recommending the stock. >> when you look at goldman sacks and morgan stanley, they have return on equity. if you're thinking of voting morgan stanley, why wouldn't you own goldman sachs instead. >> when you look at the core institutional businesses interest, market and bank, goldman has performed better over the long-term and when you look for investing for organic growth, goldman has done a better job james gorman added $20 billion of intangible assets you have to earn a return on

that also. >> mike, always good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> leslie picker is going to interview ted pick and james gorman at 10:00 a.m. >> leslie picker and ted pick. steve liesman is stand big with breaking economic data steve, you got a second to think about it now you don't. >> i'm thinking about it i'm waiting for it to appear online here. i don't quite have it here there it is. 4.9% that's against the consensus of 4.7%, joe. with the dow jones consensus it was 4.3 for reuters i don't have any details right in front of me now i've got details here. let's see. 4.9, the deflator was 3.5. a percentage point higher than expected leading to see here, consumer spending here, which was

expected to be the thing that really drove all of this i am interested as well, joe, in the issue of how much business spending came along here because if it was just the consumer, that's one thing it's business spending that drives the economy over time here we go i've got the report in front of me third quarter gdp, 2023, let's see if i can find the table here joe, i don't have the data, it's kind of trickling over, i'm going to throw it back to you. it's a beat on the up side we had seen a lot of the forecasts out there for 5%, and i'll be digging in to see what the consumer did, see what business did, but you do have that inflation inside it, which was a percentage point higher than expected. joe. >> steve, just historically, you get the first look if this is goingto be the highest print in a while, let's say, with the second and third look at the third quarter, would it i mean, would it be lower than this

you have confidence this holds up at 4.9? >> i don't know, joe, the standard deviation on this is about a percentage point on average, it's plus or minus 1.3 percentage points by the time they get around to chewing this up five years from now. i think it's safe to say that the number is going to be higher than potential. it's a strong number it's stronger than when we started estimating this quarter, but, yeah, you're right. it is going to be revised again and again and again over the next several years just because of the difficulty of counting a $21 trillion economy. >> just to add to that, the u.s. jobless claims number of 10,000 to 210 k, the week before the october 14th week, jobless claims revised to 200 k. any quick thoughts on that >> again, it's not ticking up. apparently, i think we went through this one time. those who are on strike do not get jobless claims, but if other

factories were laid off because of that or the company laid off workers, that would be -- those would be people who would be eligible for jobless claims. i am getting a little more data here consumer spending, 4%. the price index, x energy and housing was plus 1.8%. that's about half of what it was the prior quarter. that's good news right there on inflation, and again, i do not seem to see the business spending number. but that's something i'm going to be looking for. one other thing, the ecb this morning came out at 8:15 kind of signalled, i guess you could read it as something of an extended hold in policy. what they said in their statement is that the current level of rates should help them make progress towards their goal of bringing down inflation to their target they hadn't used that language before, and it suggests they may be on hold for a bit of the acb

which has hiked ten times in a row. >> stay with us. let's bring in nighathan sheets francis donald, management global chief economist and strate strategist and our senior markets commentator, mike santoli. it wasn't five, nathan it was pretty darn close, though is this the highest we're going to see for a while, and what's in this that makes it look so hot. >> i'm willing to lean in on this this is the strongest gdp we're going to see for the next six quarters or so this is a very hard reading, the consumer just had frenzied spending during the third quarter. it was kind of a surge in the services sector, yes, but also in good spend. the entertainment was hot with

these concert tours and the barbenheimer extravaganzas. consumers are out spending it underscores the ongoing resilience and durability of the u.s. economy the labor market is strong wages are growing, and that's supporting the consumer. we see yet again in this report. i do expect it to moderate going forward, but, you know, strong report. >> pjust looking at all the different markets, the stock market improved. yields fell pretty, i mean, you know, just talking basis points, but there's the ten-year, gold came down. what's in here that doesn't look hawkish for the fed? why isn't this being taken more hawkish? or hawkishly >> let's give the market a couple of minutes to wake up and get through the details of the report first burt you're right

i have two jobs, an economist and a strategist sometimes the jobs are the same and sometimes they're not. as an economist, you look at the numbers like this, and i agree with nathan, hard to push back and find anything bearish in this report. i have concerns as a strategist. a, thgsis is not going to be excite t exciting to the fed. this does not give the ability to do that more importantly, markets are always looking for the next area of growth, and i also agree with nathan on this one, moving forward, we're not going to get higher than this where is the next growth impulse coming from? it's probably not coming from the consumer who's going to see weaker wages savings that are depleted, credit that isn't at the same level. are we going to see it from manufacturing, that might be an up side. housing is looking weak in general. if you're looking forward the next six to nine months, this makes the next six to nine months harder, even if on the surface it looks like a great

report. >> not going to come from the government fiscally. maybe ukraine going to do better but we're spending money elsewhere. you don't see more stimulus domestically, do you >> and that's another game changer about the next cycle the post covid rebound is different. the next recession, whether it's six months from now is going to look different we're talking about fiscal like we never have before, and not because it's going to provide the up side in the next recession but probably going to have much more limited space look now, an almost 5% gdp it's already creating dislocations in the bond market. what are we going to do when it data slows if this is where we're at in good times, bad times look more difficult ahead. >> mike, can you make sense of the -- i mean, even gold and oil. oil is coming back a little. but it was weird s, wasn't it? didn't look like a really

hawkish number for some reason. >> i think we have disconnected the near term macro numbers from what the fed might do. the fed has told us that the bond market has been doing what it's been intending to do, which is restraining the economy i think that's why it's not feeding through directly to some kind of hawkish message from the fed. we have a little bit of a longer leash on that. the market has been struggling for a while to treat good news in the here and now on the economy as good news for stocks. you know, as francis was saying, the psychology is find right now, we're emp tying the tank o our spending capacities. earnings are treatined the same way as if it's going trail off. we have a near 5% annualized gdp print, and the economics are getting crushed over the last couple of months that shows where where people's orientations are perhaps pressure off the core price index within the gdp

report maybe gives a breather to yields we'll have to see if that lasts. >> all right thank you, mike santoli. nathan, thanks francis, i got a joke from stripes, but i don't think i'm going o use it pran s francis, good to have you on as well. when we come back, antidefamation league ceo jonathan greenblatt will join us on the corporate response to anti-semitism in america stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor. com

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coming up, antidefamation league ceo jonathan greenblatt in the fight against anti-semitism in the united states stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

♪ welcome back to "squawk box. antidefamation league saying 100 u.s. and global companies have signed on to the workplace pledge to fight anti-semitism. these include companies like

google, s&p global, ups, and the nba. at the same time, hamas terrorists attacked israel on october 7th. a 400% spike of antis-semitic incidents in the u.s the fbi is seeing increased reports of threats against muslims. joining us is antidefamation league ceo jonathan greenblatt you announced plans to put this list together. jeff sonnenfeld is putting a list together. he has more names on it. not necessarily your pledge but statements companies have made what's the process been like, what's the feedback and potential backlash been like >> jeff's a friend, and i think he does great work, and he's noted how people like albert bourla and the ceo's who's a remarkable person of a lot of companies, nvidia, ibm have spoken out

what we're doing is when companies say what can i do, more than just issuing a tweet, we're giving them a place to do that signing on to the workplace pledge, like google, come omnicom, standing with their jewish employees the anti-semitism is spiking around the world the jewish fate is facing a gen genocide threat. i have jewish employees, jewish customers, jewish shareholders, what can i do. the workplace pledge is an easy way to stand with jewish communities. >> at the same time, you have this conflation oftentimes, and i want to read you, bill ackman on twitter or x last night anti-israel has become anti-semitism, and he says just ask the students, but it is an issue that's not just about the students, it's an issue that has been raised in workplaces across the country and around the

world, and how you think about that conflation and also how you think about ceos and managers trying to resolve that conflation >> look, he's right that ant antizionism is anti-semitism period i don't think that's much of a debate anymore we know this because we hear what kids on these campuses are saying or activists are saying they're not saying two-state solution they're saying final solution. that should have no place anywhere i think it's wrong. >> go ahead. >> i was just going to say that i see it coming, the invasion of gaza has been put off. >> right. >> if it does come, and it's likely to, it's going to be very bloody >> it's going to be. >> how does israel and how do you help israel win the pr battle because you can see right now it's going to be palestinian genocide, it's going to be

israeli terrorists, even though israel has a right to defend itself. >> of course it does. >> and the only way to defend itself is to try to do to hamas what the west did, or whoever you want to give credit for, did to isis. you got to go in, there's civilian casualties. >> it's a criminal outfit, it's also the government of gaza. israel needs to respond to the attack the slaughter of people. >> you make it so the impression that israel -- >> i'm not israel's public relations community, but my job is to keep jewish people safe. i don't know if you saw what happened at the cooper union last night where jewish students were barricaded in the library because of a mob outside that banged on the doors and yelled globalize the intafada you have hamas supporters on these campuses and governor

haley talked about isis, we have laws in place to prevent americans or others from providing material support to foreign terror organizations the adl sent letters to 175 university presidents telling them that groups like students for justice in palestine, they should be investigated. >> i don't think i was that aware. i wouldn't have been in a position to have such a strong viewpoint. where is it coming from? the professors, the presidents >> whether it's right wing extremists and white supremacists or left wing radicals and hard and antizionists, these people are the fringe we need to put them back on the fringe. >> i wouldn't say we would fight to allow nazis to march. >> that's giving them the freedom of speech. >> i believe ferociously in the

first aermendment but freedom o speech is not the freedom to slaughter people, and freedom of expression is the freedom to incite violence. i'm okay with you marching but not when it involves imperilling, endangering other people >> march and say that march and palestine is occupied? >> you can certainly -- there's nothing wrong with criticizing israel nothing wrong with criticizing george soros it's when you demonize and dehumanize and put people at risk we have all over the country these crazy rallies taking place that call for white jews off the map. the intifada was a violent military action that involved murdering thousands of civilians. who thinks this is normal? >> nazis, too. >> yeah. i will tell you something, 1939, right down the street at madison square garden, 1939, there was a

rally on behalf of the third ro reich in new york. 30,000 people turned up. i think we'll look back at these individuals, the people supporting hamas, the same way as we looked at those supporting the nazis. whether it's a university president or community leader who dithers and equivocates, history will not judge them well >> probably the biggest problem is iran. >> iran is the biggest problem it's beyond me how we continue to tolerate the activities of that country >> they want to wipe out israel and the united states. >> and the united states at the adl we study extremism. we have students on our campuses, activists in our communities repeating it >> what do we do to get underneath this? there's two issues, one is it

can't be normalized, i would argue can't be allowed to continue in this vain. it needs to be called out as hate speech. ultimately to rid the world of these ideas, something else has to happen underneath the conversation that's the thing i don't know what to do about >> look, we have to recognize that some things are right and left, some things are right and wrong, some things are good and evil the nazis were evil, isis was evil, hamas is evil. you have to defeat evil. i must say, we de-nazified germany, we need to de-hamasify gaza after this. period >> the question i'm asking, to the degree you believe -- you may not agree with what i'm about to say, that hamas is an idea and that we should and should hold accountable every

individual responsible for this and anybody who has these ideas. the question is a long-term question, which is once you rid the current individuals who are accountable, how do you do that at the same time that we don't create another generation of them >> look -- >> that's what we're talking about here >> i hear that, as jewish people we've been dealing with anti-semitism and anti-jewish hate for thousands of years. maybe we can never truly defeat hate but we won't sit around and let us take us out once again. no way >> one terrorist at a time you can't just throw up your hands -- >> i'm not throwing up my hands. i'm suggesting that i think there's sort of a two layered thing that has to happen here. once is you need to deal with the immediate issue, and then there's almost a larger conundrum that i'm desperate to rid the world of >> if you are a zionist, if you

say israel has a right to exist, you will never convince -- you will never get to the underlying problem. >> i don't say this often, but jared kushner had it right, the idea of bahrain, saudi and the uae offering the palestinians a better deal than what hamas, hezbollah and iran are offering them we have to give them the dignity and quality that they deserve in a way that keeps israel safe and never endangers another person >> important conversation. thank you. when we return, we'll talk markets, earnings and try to get you ready for the day ahead. "squawk" returning after this.

here in hawaii there is always time. there's time to spend with family, time to enjoy with friends. there's always time to listen or lend a helping hand. here we have all the time in the world, but no time to waste.

welcome back our next guest is positioning for a soft landing and said the fed has more to risk being dovish right now i want to bring in phil camperelli. let's talk about the gdp number we saw today it was a strong 4.9% do you think things roll over or is this part of your soft landing scenario, we come down from there and we don't actually hit a recession? >> 5% gdp growth is not a soft landing. that's the opposite of a soft landing. the economy is defying gravity

right now. it's the gravity of this interest rate cycle that nobody saw coming if you look at the three things that matter most, we'retalking about gdp right now,yes, 4.9% this morning, that would be the strongest quarterly growth since 2021 after multiple quarters of above-trend growth the second thing is the labor market that's the canary in the coal mine that's what matters the most here we're printing 266,000 jobs a month? there's 1.5 job openings to every one person employed? and initial jobless claims, which is the most important number, will not budge from the 200,000 number the last cpi number is the third thing. it's gdp, labor and inflation. we saw that cpi core number up 0.6. that's why i believe the fed has more risk being dovish than hawkish because they can't allow inflation to reaccelerate and have to keep talking tough

>> that doesn't mean other rate hikes, does it >> that's a good question. i think every meeting should be live december is pricing in about 30%. think about the backdrop i just went through you have really a third quarter that's putting them in a position, we believe, to keep every meeting live and the options open and there's two options, either high for longer or even higher for longer they will push back any easing as fast as they can. i think as far as they can -- i think that's what the market is dealing with of the past two months i want to be clear about something -- >> we have 20 seconds until the end of the show. tell me what you do as an allocator? >> don't add duration just yet 5% ten-year is not controversial and we like u.s. high yield. u.s. high yield is a no-recession trade a soft landing is no recession it's also high for longer. a high-yield instrument yielding

9% is attractive and don't get too far from home on equity. >> you like junk bonds phil, thank you very much for being on with us >> less junky. >> that does it for us today make sure you join us back here tomorrow i'll be here again right now it's time for "squawk on the street. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post 9 on the stock exchange. equity pressures under morning all morning as the street continues to sour on mega cap tech, core pce comes in a touch light at 2.4 even at gdp with 4.9. meta shares under pressure as guidance overshadows this quarterly beat >> also ahead, the uaw and ford reach a tentativ