nxp, 50% of their business is providing chips to vehicles. >> playing a little defense for me. great to see you all back on hq "the exchange" begins right now. \s. thank you very much, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the latest data shows the economy remains resilient. so does the consumer, and if that trend holds, our economists see two things happening in the market and the fed she's here with her forecast the recent pullback in tech provides a good intrigue point, but there's one way to play it to be a little safer and what else he 'buying we'll check back in with one real estate player, the spot a bright spot on the back of earnings the name, the ceo, and what

makes the company so far resilient to higher rates. dom chu has the numbers. >> to your point, kelly, if you look at the s&p 500, that's down roughly 54 to 5, does represent session lows at this point even at the highs of the day, only down about three points so it has been negative. specifically in tech and communication, that's been driving the down side. 245 points on the down side. for those listening on sirius/xm, it's 4133 at those leaves do you 2%, 12,555 for the

nasdaq each of these major indices is below the longer trend 200-day moving average. another place to keep a close eye on, look at the semiconductor etf again, the chip makers is below the 200-day moving average, so something to keep an eye on as well for some of the stocks driving the action, of course, earnings from alphabet, even microsoft sharply up day yet is down about 3.5% today. and meta platforms, weaker on the heels, and all eyes on amazon this afternoon, given what we have seen, with earns -- that could be something to

warrick at well if this isn't something weird, so much we've been talking about, the notion that bonds and stocks have been selling off at the same time, the death of the 60/40 portfolio, on a day we've hit the session low, we have hit session highs in the bond market, treasuries specifically. it almost seems fundamental that people would be taking risk out of the stock market and buying treasury bonds on the heels of it it hasn't been happening recently that could be something to watch. >> even as it ticks down again. let's get to the strong third quarter number that's the stronge pace since 2021, the third quarter. we also learned that big-ticket items surged

job his claims remain near historic lows. joining me is blerina from rowe price is with us. and steve is also with us. >> you can look at this report and see some stuff that might create weakness in the current quarter, the fourth quarter. inventories were a big contribution to the final number that's probable going to come off a little bit this quarter. spending was another part of it. then you have to step back and say, okay, for a year or two, we've been misforecasting, badly forecasting the consumer and getting it wrong and wrong and

wrong. the question becomes now, will the consumer finally, given the headwinds, give it up? i guess i have my doubts the economists have been wrong for a very long time we really don't know what the level of savings is. i remember thinking, kelly, a year ago people were on this show saying consumers have no more savings they sure seem to be spending. i think you have some interest income accruing, finally real wage gains out there i see it stepping down, but i don't see it going to zero, and i think it can handle some of the he headwinds. >> lorelorena, i feel like you l agree. what that does mean for the fed here

>> by the way, i think what is supporting the consumer is the labor market aggregate incomes are strong and also improving then it seems almost contradictory that the fed would lean against its forward guidance and hike one more time this year. i think this has a lot to do with what is happening in treasury yields, especially in the long end of the curve. we're seeing yields increase, even though the probability of hikes has declined i think for the fed, there seems to be some equivalent, where maybe the markets and the financial condition tightening could be doing the job for them, so it does not necessitate another hike >> so, what happens then as we've seen, if yields don't

come down, do you think the fed would react by tightening? >> i think it's very key that the increasing yields we have seen so far is sustainable i think this is the key. we don't necessarily -- the fed doesn't necessarily need to see further yield increases from here, but any pullback in yields, a meaningful that brings us back to august levels i think would be an indication they need to deliver that extra hike if the economy remains as resilient as we have seen. at this point, i have no reason, looking at the data, to believe that the labor market is going to crack any time soon. >> steve, what were you going to say to that? >> nominal yields on the ten are 5% i don't think that continues growth is 5%

knoll nominal yields are 5%. that means nominal growth is a bit higher, then, maybe 8% it's not to be in a world of higher rates i think the fed may step back and say it's not entirely clear it's unwarranted so, i think things do step down here, but it's not a crazy place to be right now with 5% yields on this. >> blerina >> i think another element we having discussed is the lags of tightening and higher yields playing out in the real economic the key is the duration extension both for households and for firms. a large portion of u.s. households and firms locked in lower interest rates before the fed started hiking that means, of course, the increases in rates that we have seen so far, which are

substantial are going to bite, but this is going to happen with a longer life. i think the fed here is a risk manager, and what they're trying to do is, saying, okay, we'll give the economy some more time for this long lag to play out, but we're not precluding the possibility that, if this resilience continues in 2024, they can deliver higherlower cu resume hiking. >> steve, i wonder if this discussion is too backwards-looking and relying to which on the data strength from the past two quarters. the forward-looking momentum here, it just doesn't seem week as encouraging >> yeah, i think people are

really reluctant to buy into a positive story, given the headwinds and the kind of reflection, which is backward-looking forecasting that people do, but it certainly seems like, if you look back at the forecast, it's been wrong for a long time, kelly i don't know when that -- if you give it up and suddenly you're, like, okay, suddenly i'm optimistic if that's the last straw, but i think the earnings numbers have kind of held in there, given certainly the surge in prices, and like blerina said, you have the wage gauge. i believe households are net lenders to the economy, they are not net borrowers. i was looking here -- >> that's really interesting. >> let me get my glasses on. i apologize here, but i have

august personal interest income is up $140 billion, at an annual rate compared to the year-ago period i'm just wonder, maybe all the seniors collecting the coupons now are booking those cruises, and maybe you can't get a room on the cruise right now? >> also thinking about the irony it's u.s. households receiving the largess from the government that seem to be threatened >> the whole balance sheet story here is key. we spent a decade deleveraging to steve's point, net assets of households, relative to their liabilities are at historical highs. the balance sheet looks healthy. we have a demographic effect where baby boomers have a ton of

savings, and they don't have to pay mortgages at 8% interest rates, and we're seeing that show up in resilience in both goods spending, as well as services both components have been stronger than most people expected for this year >> steve >> just real quick, i wonder, kelly, rather than spending time to figure out why things will be bad, maybe we should be spending time figuring out why things haven't been as bad as we thought they would be. >> i think it discussion was unpacking a lot of that. >> agreed. we'll leave it there for now. thank you both let's turn to markets some stock sector etfs can help investors avoid single-stock blowups. mark, good to see you again. what kind of mood are you in

these days >> well, cautious at best. days like today don't help much. you're seeing what the market is doing. >> reports really aren't that bad. we're find ago wrinkle or two of what we don't like about them, and then trashing some of the america's best companies that's a bit of an overreaction, but that could be a turning point. i just don't think it will be an easy ride to get there. >> everyone set, you know, the react is so undeserved i'm not sure it is look at microsoft, right numbers helped by enovation and their shares were up on a pretty ugly today take google to the woodshed, i don't care, they need to keep up. >> you make a good point

google's earns, the ad revenue, there was nothing wrong with that it was the growth rate in cloud. that's my point, people are looking for problems where they may or may not exist i think the valuations got written up a bit too high. you're pointing out microsoft. they 345i be the cream of the crop here in that space, but we're going to look to see amazon's numbers you have to lit really look at beets, but you're going the opposite way no, buy the sector if you're not exactly sure where each blowup

will be. >> in tech, it's okay. i'll tell you why. who was on your air in the past 48 hours saying microsoft would have a great earnings number and bounce up in alphabet, which was going to have questionable earnings and a big drop down it's almost impossible to time these quarterlyearnings reports. for the average investor to try to do that is extremely difficult. for insiders, it's also very difficult. in a turbulent market, and this feels more like a bear market, i would rather by broadly diversified. in a bull market, we all look like heroes when we pick the winners. in a bear market, i have to be more defensive, protect client capital, and then strike hard when there's the all clear.

>> i also just wanting to explain why financials here, where if you're feeling bearish, i get the valuation case, but are we so sure they're cheap enough >> well, i really think it depends on what financial you're looking for, and the xlf, actually, large, high-quality best of the best -- berkshire hathaway is actually in there. jpmorgan, visa, mastercard -- non-banks. you can't avoid financials, so we look for quality, broad diversification. you want to stay out of the community and regional banks, that will struggle that's why we migrate to the large-cap etf sector. last word, you would steer them toward investment grade with a yield of 6% or higher why? >> if you can take the

volatility out of a port follow -- again, it depends on the investor but you could consider treasuries, but across the board, investment-grade corporates with a low risk of default and intermediate duration can round out these wild swings. interestingly enough, after the fed rate hike, the three-year average return is only a percentage point or two behind the average return so you can get capital gains, plus a 6% interest rate, plus or minus, i think most investors would be well served to consider that in that area. mark avalon, thank you for your time today. >> good to be here coming up, our triple-header executive exchange first up, the ceo of raymond james joins us to recap the quarter and give us his read on the health of the banks. eqt surprising the street

with a profit in q3. ceo toby wright weighs in on that and entire state realty trust's ceo has a pulse check. we're looking forward to that. the s&p is down 1% right now. the nasdaq the worst performer the ten-year yield drifting back up we're back after this.

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raymond james reported record revenue, driven by higher interest rates for more, let's bring in raymond james' ceo. >> great to see you, kelly we were driven by or wealth management businesses and the divert fitted businesses this is the third consecutive

year in our year just ended so, it's really a testament for the model, the long-term view that the firm has always keeping flexible. we have double the amount of capital to be well capitalized, a lot of liquidity we even look at these times that like ad ahead to be more challenging, looking at always opportunity -- opportunities ed models produce those results. >> we spoke with stifel yesterday, which also had a nice quarter. >> well, you know, i think the

recruiting success on the platforms is we've had just steady across our independent employee and our platforms for strong recruiting. we've had it send of forever it's or growth store -- story most importantly is, since even here and well before me. having a model where advisers are free to leave. but they choose to stay, because they feel we have a high support environment, that we put clients first, and our investment and technology that we believe on the wealth platform for advisers, we have the leading technology as advisers, come and kick the tires, they tell us that from the other firms. we know it's been a tough period

there lately there's probably a lot of different levels you can pull that maybe you've been through, but maybe your more junior team members have never been through that. >> if you've been around long enough, you've got through these cycles this is typical some conditions start to change. sellers usually are much slower to react he see that in the markets even for us, as we look at opportunities when we can lock in debt at low single digits, and it's up significantly if we want to finance something, it changes the return on investment until prices adjustment a little bit, if this is the reality in the miss term to longer term,

which aren't record rates, but people have been used to free capital for a while there. once people settle in on both sides then you'll see activity pick up. the question is when, and that's what we can't answer everybody talks about groan shoots, and we did some he see in increased activity. there's some activity, but certainly not the levels we would expect >> what would you see -- when you're thinking through how to be nimble and opportunistic, looking at the period, know there will be some opportunities as you hinted at before, just walk us through what that means across the rank and file and what that could look like. >> i think to think long term. during the mini banks crisis in

march last year, a lot of people said rates aren't going to up, and they locked in in panic. that put them in a precarious position we'll make money in either environment. so keeping flexible, thinking long term, well, just ride it out. economic reality comes back. think that's why through all these cycling, this year we had over 22% return on a nontangible equity, and even in '09, our worth year, we have a 7.9 r.o.e., and taking that long-term view, the opportunities come back. you tell people we've been through tough times before the markets will come back

thanks in there, just see if you can help them, and they'll remember that. >> real quickly, then, would you be looking at any acquisition in a time when we've seen a flurry of activity? >> we're always open for that. they have to be a cultural fit strategy ecly they have to mac sense. we have to integrate them. we believe they were to be part of the raymond james family. and then they have to be at the right price. i think there are more opportunities. i'm not sure the price adjustments are all there from our side, but sure, we're always ready. we have the capital. it's just all those factors have to line up. >> it's interesting, you think they're not cheap enough yet, if i'm reading between the lines. >> yeah, i think if you look at where interest rates are happening, you'll have a midterm

squeeze on margins who knows when the fed is done it just values that cash asset differently on, you know, somebody's balance sheet, just like it's had an impact on financial stocks if you believe that's here to say, that's the value. honestly, when rates were zero, our industry over-earned, and when rates go up, you have to say, okay, long term, what's a reasonable thread, and what's the value to us long term? you have to wait until all those factors align, they're a good fit, and we can offer strategic advantages to our technology. >> we'll be watching and waiting, in the meantime, paul, it's great to have you here, especially on a day when the market is stretch like this. thank you for your time. >> thank you, kelly. >> paul reilly, ceo of raymond james.

as we head to break, take a look at the sectors, as real estate is the top sector of ohm three in the green today it's up 2% consumer discretionary, tech communications services all remain laggard the chip makers meta and our parent company, comcast, are each weighing on those group "the exchange" is back, after this ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪

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western digital, wdc, was the mystery chart before the break many of you got it, down about 11% after it reportedly has scrapped merger talks. the companies couldn't reach an agreement with the stop shareholder. it would have created a company that rivals samsung, the leader in the slash memory space. invisalign is having it's worse day. saying with mortgage rates tripling, that means no money for teeth otr terriers over to tyler for a cnbc

news update. >> merrick garland released a statement, saying several federal agencies are helping in the search for the suspected mass shooter garland said they're all on the ground in maine now. a manhunt is still underway for a 40-year-old individual named robert card, after police say he killed 18 people, and injured more governor desantis said his's sending drones, ammunition and more to israel that's his latest effort to back israel, as he competes in the 2024 republican primary. president vladimir putin overassignment a simulation that came hours after parliament voted to rescind the country's ratification much a global nuclear test ban

state media shows putin directing the exercise on a video call tyler, thanks. i'll see you shortly. coming up, toby rice joins us what's driving the rulests "the exchange" is back after this

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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of eqt a bit flat, appeared the company had a surprise profit and revenue beat while nat gas prices collapsed in the first half of this year amid record production, eqt says high sales volume offset lower prices in the third quarter. they also finalized some acquisitions to increase future output joining me is toby rice, the president and ceo of ewt good to see you again. thanks for having me we seeing energy -- it's not

too hard to understand whye sites desired and this consolidation has been a company for us that's before synergies. that's make it more reliable for these assets, we're going to integrate their carbon footprint into our net zero program here in eqt, and zero out these emissions.

if i'm not manage taken, we're not talking about the mature industry market share, but could we be headed in that direction >> what we are seeing is, we are seeing scale now actually start to create differentiating opportunities for energy producers. you know, this quarter was a great example of eqt leverages an showcasing the power of our platform or investment-agreed balance sheets all of these are creating opport opportunities. our inventory and low-cost structure helps to make that

happen our balance sheet supports these deals and lets them happen as a result, we're creating some really great opportunities where not only are our investors going to get access to premium markets in the southeast part of the united states, consumers in the southeastern part of the united states are going to get more secure, reliable supply, which is going to be even more important in this world that we're in today >> would you welcome if ch chesapeake and -- >> certainly that would help the story here at eqt. we want to be known as america's best natural gas producer. when we're doing consolidation, we want to look at assets that make us a better business. sure, we're looking to check the box on the financial accretion, that's par for the course.

and we certainly have a differentiated position on that part >> as you said, there's also some rewards to size could you weigh in a bit if there's anything we've learned, it's hard to forecast natural gas price what do you think? >> it seems like every week we see another event around the world that throwing the energy markets into turmoil in '22 we were talking about the russia situation with ukraine. a couple weeks ago talking about an lng strike in australia now we have this conflict in the middle east. one of the things that's touted on the hill is this story line that, you know, we complain a

lot about the regulations and the need to get more permit reform in place, so we can get more infrastructure built and before supply this world we hear people say, well, it can't be that tough, because the american energy producer is producing at record levels of energy while that is true, the big question remains -- is that enough you look at the rampant inflation, rising eamortization for the first time in 20 years, global energy poverty has increased. clearly the united states needs to do more unfortunately until we get there, we'll be living in an energy short world that will lead to a lot of roll tilt toby, thank you for your time today. >> thank you, kell,. still to come, the tech-heavy pass gab the underperformer day, as investors digest the results from google, meta, even microsoft this week

with amazon after the bell today, mike santoli tells you if he expects more pain ahead or not. that's next.

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welcome back to "the exchange." don't look now, but the tech trade -- if you don't know this, by the way, it's showing a few cracks, shall we say the nasdaq, smh and apple all below 200-day moving averages. what's the significance? mike santoli is here on set with me to discuss. technicals, you know, okay, so they dictate maybe near-term trading ranges and weakness, but the mere fact we were below it in march. >> it's really more descriptive of the trend because the 200-day average is still sloping up, the s&p average was about flat, so i

don't think it's really a light switch that turns on and off, but it shows you demand is flagging, but the nasdaq was way above, so extremely stretched beyond that trendline. to me it's corrected back. to me, the reactions to the numbers just shows you to what degree people have excess faith that they were impervious to a lot that was going on. meta's numbers were absolutely stellar for the last quarter, a bit of a whisper, and all of a sudden it's game over. however, they're only going back to prices at one, two, three months ago. >> i was pointing out, what about microsoft? there was a nice reaction to a stock that outperformed yesterday, and a source saying don't check today, because it's already back below where it was. >> microsoft seems to be the most benefit of the doubt, and

it seems like they've got it figured out, and of course, the a.i. exposure, too but, in general, i think what the market is doing is giving credence to the catch down hypothesis they're kind of retracing lower. however, if you look over three years, the nasdaq 100 and equal-weighted s&p are in the exact same spot. >> crazy crazy. >> so you traded this for massive underperformance this year e. and kind of at the same place. in terms of the macro message, what -- >> what do you think it's saying here >> the macromessage is the economy can't handle what rates are doing. >> it's minus the fact that rates are sold at levels that they have. >> that's exactly right. it could be wrong. obviously sometimes the market kind of over-shoots in terms of

pricing, but there's no -- i was saying yesterday, whirlpool not great guidance, it got crushed today. it god crushed from seven times earnings, and it's down double digits. >> wow >> i like to think a lot is priced in, saying these are in the cross hairs of whatever happens. airlines are trading at exactly the cheap multiples where you're not supposed to buy them >> so, what's the next thing to watch here maybe it's just incoming data, who knows? >> it's definitely the incoming data the fact we're getting oversold, it should make a stand before too long, yiel yields have to c i think below 4.8 on the ten-year would help a lot. if the fed next week says we

hear you, that could give a jolt. >> thank you, as always, mike. next, here's someone in the green. the shares are up 44% from the 52-week low. there's some consumer strength ceo tony malkin explains next. different story for harley-davidson. shares are down 10% despite an earnings beat, as shipments fell from the prior year. middle on the call said consumers are sitting on the sidelines for big distressary purchases. we'll be right back. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too.

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i just hope we don't look back and say, we didn't see whatever is coming. >> we raised our full-year guidance it's the ninth consecutive quarter with positive marks, the seventh positive, with the lease rate absorption. people want our produces, we're at the top of our tier, and we have a good story to tell, and the tenants want it. >> what are we len about the state of new york city i think the mayor made comments about we're back to pre-pandemic levels of office workers i don't want so say yours is more low cost, but average has filled things back up? >> first of all, we're modernized energy official with indoor environmental quality, future-ready real estate number two, best balance sheet, lowest leverage of all the new

york city office reifs putting that altogether, we're a prizing tier, which is the deepest segment of the market. there's a lot of demand. and we're a flight to quality in that we're really outpacing the market with our performance. >> so i guess the question is real estate is taking a broader hit, because it's competing for capital. obviously there's concerns about the banks' exposure. are there idiosyncrasies that can help act as a cushion or maybe an offset to some of the headwinds? >> i think there's two pieces. we have four drivers -- office, destination attraction, and we traded out of our exchanges to

manhattan residential. the second thing is, we positioned or balance sheet to always be ready for what might go wrong we have no floating rate debt. best balance sheet of all of our peers, and we locked in long-term debt from our perspective, we're in a position to go forward and take advantage of opportunities >> you also signed some leases with linkedin, starbucks, and some commercial activity as well what are the next kind of chess moves to watch >> well, i think first, first of all, runways so we can take advantage of opportunities by that, i mean acquisitions number two, we want to continue to emphasize or difference in that we can cooperate and help with our tenants' operations and

choices. number one, our locations are fantastic. remember, which is the deepest part of the market we really didn't lever up. so we're in a good spot. that's shown -- keep in mind, that's starbucks that's an office lease, not another retail lease, and linkedin is an office lease. we're happy to have a positive story to tell, anthony. thanks for joining us. we really appreciate it. >> thank you that does it for "the exchange." for more analysis on markets and the economy, sign up for my newsletter next on "power lunch," sam bankman-fried taking the stand at his own trial we'll have the lesatt and what can be behind that decision. "power lunch" starts on the other side of this break to get to this milestone.

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good afternoon, everybody. alongside kellie y evans, i'm tr mathisen we'll preview what's to come and break down what it all means, especially in tech plus, sam bankman-fried -- he with the good hair -- is set to take the stand in his own dividends. we'll get the latest from the trial and our legal expert will weigh? >> i heard he got a haircut, too, but we'll see the nasdaq losing the most today. we're off session lows, as we check on the s&p 500, and the dow down about 0.5%. concerns about big tech spending we'll have mor