i guess this is a video game, the real archenemy is a second mortgage. peter parker pays about $44 ahn month with almost a 7% interest rates and nearly $500,000 of remaining principal. >> good luck with that, spider-man. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts next. kelly, thank you so much i'm scott wapner there make-or-break hour starts with stocks on the reteeth again. amazon reports earns in overtime mark ma haney is here with me momentarily. we start with the nasdaq, trying to improve as the day stretches

on we'll see how it goes. it's been a brutal stretch of selling. apple under 170, meta plunging nvidia threatening to close below 400. microsoft not even able to get much going more broadly, yes, we are watching the s&p 500 it closed below that key 4200 level yesterday. you take a look here, it's moving further away. health care energy among the weakest sector whether -- we're only -- let's ask dave greenhouse, and big technologies alex canterwitz both are with me on set. gentlemen, good to see you dan, you first the trade has not been good. what do you think of the market? >> listen, i'll leave the

tech-specific to alex, but i think the meta report looked fine some of the other records, microsoft good, not bad at all, but it's an important environment for a number of reasons. you have the two wars, the budget in congress, obviously interest rates doing what they're doing, so i'm not surprised that good enough is not good enough. the reed today was pretty good but, you know, they looks like they may be holding a bit steady. >> i think the idea -- we were talking in the greenroom, i don't know that there's many rate hikes to cup, but frankly the names we're talking about, the interest rate story is much more consequential the fang-plus index, if you will, is down 12, 13%. the unprofitable tech bask is

down somewhere around 35%. so the companies for which rates matter, consequential more from a valuation perspective are down two to three times as much as the fang names >> so, alex, the tech trade that everybody has so focused on, we came into this week subjecting this is is here we are with the nasdaq is this trade that so many have relied upon in trouble >> just think what would happen if -- >> alphabet is down 10.5%, much of that within 2 1/2 days. we've seen nice reports from microsoft, nice records from meta meta guided there might be some problem, and you will see that, yeah, if you're not in line or

meet expectations, ute get punished i think that shows you the market is jittery, and how bick of a portion they are. their run-up happened when we thought interest rates would be declining now. we thought congress would be under -- and the new leadership there, which might be taking us toward a shutdown. so a different environment now, and people are starting to rethink some of the down market cap run-ups, and what will happen it's different from the world we lived in even three months ago. >> lots of questions about valuation. i want you to hear what brad of altimeter told me on "halftime report" today. >> you're going to see a reversion to the mean in the short run. you know, i told you, we've taken our risks from 93% to 48%

in that exposure we anticipated this was going to be choppy. i don't think you can say these are frothy in fact we've seen multi-pan compression, not multiple expansion. >> he makes a good point, does he not six months ago,le valuations were richer. >> cheaper than they were previously, but i think what brad is missing, is that investors physically, metaphysically they're nervous even if they are cheaper now, it's just not the same environment. you could potentially see even further pullback take the logic you want out of it. >> but where are you going to get the growth that's why people have been willing to pay up these stock to

begin with that's why you were selling the hyper-growth names, going into they names, because even richer to the market multiple, this was deemed the place to have some safety, you get the better balance sheets, this is where the growth at a reason price resided. >> apple will have mid single-digit eps growth, but the rest of them all have meaningfully better growth profiles than the market as a whole, and google, as we see on the screen right now, google and meta don't trait at a particularly rich multiple depending, somewhere in the up teens to lower 20s they still have tremendous growth profiles. obviously the issue with google was a deceleration in the crowd, no surprise to anybody, given

all that, it turns to amazon, and i'm not making the case to buy these, but it's undeniable they have better profiles than the market as a whole. >> i know you're not making the case necessarily to buy them, but certainty one question is if this is stocks will pull back in any meaningful way, the dip buyers were going to buy them, and that would indiana insulate the market let's track this hour really closely. the nasdaq is slowly and steadily -- i know it's down, still, 1%, but that story is improving. the dow, by the way, is only down 51 points so we're trending in an interesting direction. the question about the dip buyer, you think they still exist in we're bakery the

200-day moving average in a bull market is typically where you find support, but here about 9%, 10% off the highs. that's a pretty significant sell-off the dip buyers, i've been doing this lodge enough, using the same saying, it's no different than the mike tyson everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face everyone sell they'll buy the dip, and when the dip comes, they run for the hills if you believe these profiles are not meaningfully impaired, presumably you want to be continued to stocks over the next three to six months, at least, before we get a better idea of the growth. >> we'll see it likes some people are starting to nibble at some of necessary megacap names. >> last question before we bring

in mark. aws, growth rebound, this whole period for megacap has been about crowd growth doing well, microsoft you get rewarded if our doing poorly, you get punished now amazon >> i see good things on the horizon for amazon for the last six quarters of revenue growth decline, the reason we're seeing that is because we have come off the pandemic comps because that was the entire economy, and then you had it moment of optimization the last few quarters where it's a tougher economy, take my spend and tighten it up a bit. last quarter andrew jassy said this was all about cloud they're going to start to have

the type of tightening versus the pandemichighs. for amazon, that bodes well. if jassy was telling the truth lack, they should see the growth come back in mark mahaney, good to talk with you again it's been a minute are with he going to get a growth rebound in aws? >> i think there's a 50% chance we get it in september or the december quarter so there, i'm evading the question the market is insisting what we're seal, no acceleration. our cloud channel check is more positive, but it's a hard thing to know. what i liked about amazon going into the print is that the expectations are low that usually gives you a good opportunity to the up side

the other things, we want consistent operating margin expansion. i'm pretty sure we're going to get that finally the advertising sector, which has been clipping along, the reads you got from google and media i thought were positive you know, we were all looking for an acceleration. bev seen it. >> i know you know what happens when people evade the question i'm going to do it again we, being investors, we need a reacceleration in aws growth. >> yes >> what are the chances we'll see it this quarter? >> i think it's 50-50 you see it this quarters. i think the odds rise if you give me two quarters i wouldn't be priced to see anywhere between 10% and 12%

how's that that's as precise as you can get for a moment like this expectations are low on that aws number i don't see a ton of down side it's not like google where the expectations were they maintain pretty robust, they come in six points lower i don't think you'll have that kind of risk i think the truth will be somewhere between google and somewhere between what microsoft did, probably towards what microsoft did the i think microsoft is the better read >> i'm confused, though. you told our producers that you see an attractive risk/reward set up into the print, yet you can only tell me there's a 50/50 chance of growth for aws and that says there's a lot of risk going into this, not great

risk/reward. how would you counter that >> i think you have seen this 20% pullback in the stock recently this stock has pulled back in more than any of the oregon big tech stocks have, so i think the setup is more constructive than it was for microsoft there's a greater fear factor with the stock up 20%. i would just stick with the point. they printed 11% assuming everything else i talked about would be okay but you get any whiff of deceleration this quarter or discussion next quarter, you get a material up side for the stock. >> dan greenhaus has a question

for you. >> saying the retail calm in at 5%, is that sufficient enough to set off the disappointments? >> i think the expectations are so low if they print 10%, 10.5% just on this half point, you know, the stock would probably trade up. i think it's a low single-digit percent, and you also have the compete that talked about better trends, what visibility they're seeing in the december quarter we think we sort of heard that from microsoft microsoft is the better read on this if you're willing to look out 3 to 6 months, up to buy these stocks with perceptions when expectations are on the lower side, and i think that's where you are. >> you name amazon your top large cap net long a note on your coverage list,

meta is on that list you like amazon over meta? >> yeah. this is because we had the 20% pullback and the expectations are super low on the cloud side. that's why the cost of value is probably the cheapest points you have seen for quite some time. we're close to trough margins, but much closer to trough than to peak. like, we got cloud and retail, maybe for advertising, too, all three of those going into '24. i don't know if it shows up this quarter, but i want to be there. it's going to show up in one of these two quarters >> what about efficiency are we done hearing about efficiency from andy jassy >> i think you'll hear from jassy a tone that's similar. the three big names i have looked at, google was

wishy-washy, i think, when they shouldn't have been on expense management though google is a rising margin story this year. meta i think just stamped that point home last wright, the year of efficiency has tender to year of -- because you had such a natural setup last year. they just had the kitchen sink in terms of cost inflation thrown at that model last year as the growth recovers and they find ought these efficiencies, i think you'll get back to not just peak margins, but good operating margins. the path will be that we'll see that in the next 3, 6, 9 months. >> going how thrown have been by the sell out? alphabet >> that was a real surprise. i get the disappointment

i can see that decel coming. i think it's because google cloud is more of a secondary cloud provider i think the on optimization, i think that started earlier than google i think google is a delay, mash a two quarter delay from the turn that you see from aws i think it's more of a timing thing. i've been very surprised by the stock coming off that much the short-term trade are considered mag any of send that's a high bar. >> alex has a question for you >> so we all know that the uplift that microsoft has gotten with the openai deal they invest, all of a sudden it's the hottest company on wall street amazon made an interesting move on enthroopic. can they start to you a similar lift in the same way that movie

is getting theirs? >> i like the question i don't think so, but you also pointed out some things. there's always they lucky breaks that happen in business. sometimes you get the right investment, sometimes you lean into these crazy opportunities more power to them maybe they got this right. i interpreted that that we're just getting -- we're not just investing here i think it's clearly one of top a.i. sets out there. i think it's the smart, savvy move, and i think it will be the same boost to their growth, but they're going to see that same

boost to growth, because the a.i. revolution, you're going to need to compute and neat the storage capables that's why i think you gel this material reacceleration going into the next 12 months. i think we start getting the first evidence of it >> i think we're all trying to assess where the tech trade is more broadly you want you to respond to what brad told me early he said, i don't think you can say it's frothy, in fact wyche seen multiple compression. do you agree was there too much froth were some of these stocks too overextended >> i look at the p/e multiples

on your screen that i don't think was quite accurate it's gap earnings. google is sitting there 18 times gatt earnings, so it's trading at a discount with $60 billion of cap on the sheet. and so, i just think there's an enormous amount of value google, i think, this is a -- what do you call it, an enduring temperature name it's like a staple, and treating as a very, very reasonable valuation. i'm willing to step in i'm a dip buy i.

up to look back and say i bought google and meta on the correction. >> glad to have you here, mark you set us up well for our question of the day. thank you very much, mark. gentlemen, thanks to you as well joining us here in-house. to our question of the day -- which of these big-tech stocks could be due for a bounce police vote on x the results are later on in the hour in the meantime, a check on the top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos has that. >> the marlboro maker is saying volume femme almost 12%, with wider competition across the industry the ceo said the lack of regulation of illicit products comes at the expense of illegal operators. shares are down over 8%. u.p.s. shares are down after

reporting a drop in q3 earnings, primary with the new deal that was ratified in august the company warnings of a lower revenue and thinner profit margins, not because of labor issues, but slowing global economy. scott? >> kristina, thank you we're just getting started on "closing bell." up next, sam bankman-fried taking the stand today without a jury present a live report is just ahead. plus, making the case for caution. sonia meskin is flagging in down side she'll make her case after the break. you're watching "closing bell. the dow is down 111. see you in two minutes

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in one year, i've lost five sizes, and i'm on my way to lose another three. with golo, i can do it. (announcer) change your life at golo.com. that's golo.com. we're following the latest developments out of the sam bankman-fried trial. kate has the latest. >> reporter: hey, scott, sam bankman-fried is on the stand, but there's no jury. think of it as a dress rehearsal. the defense want -- judge wants to hear what the defense's arguments of sam bankman-fried's lawyers are trying to show he had no criminal intent.

bankman-fried thought it was all allowed in terms of service. this is written known as a advice of counsel defense, which the judge pushed back on earlier, but the lawyers say it's relevant he is sounding calm, and clear. if the judge specs that at any time he lied in his sworn testimony, he could have years added to his sentence. there's already a lot of tension between bankman-fried and the judge today. he revoked his bail earlier in the summer, accused of witness tampering.

scott, back to you. >> thank you it's about to get interest nasdaq is fall below 4200, the first time as soon as march. nice to see you, sonia >> we really saw this priced to perfection a month or so ago it seems with the premium rising, with the economy doing well, this seems to be one of those examples good news is bad news. >> about the fallout in tech by the straw that breaks the camel's back >> for stocks, yes, not necessarily for the broader economy. we think part of the reason it's rising is because the economy is doing well of course, another reason could be the fiscal situation. it is an unusual time, we have with a strong labor market and a lot of fiscal stimulus in the

system >> when do we look at it as an undoubted good and not worried about anything, gdp is strong, employment is good when do we focus on that >> that's an excellent question, but we're in the late cycle stages, this is property not the case that could happen. >> what happened if the fed does nothing? >> their guidance for december, and no next year will be important, because that tension between strong data, stronger than they have been expecting, and the fact they're pausing, they're saying because of financial conditions have tightened in part because of the rising rates across the curve, but positive in face of strong

data, what will we do with 2024? higher for longer? a potential hike or two more that's an open question. >> what about the fact that many would suggest there's better value, better risk/reward, and that dynamic is not going to change any time soon they can withstand higher rates. this is where we think there's value on it. >> what kind of target do you have on the s&p? we saw where we are today, below 4200, seems to be sort of a critical, if you will, line in the sand in some respects. where do we go between now and the end of the year, when all the hopes were on a year-end rally? >> we were a bit less sanguine on the equities. 4,000 for the s&p is our

expectations there is quite a bit of uncertainty around that view, even intently for us, even more so in 2024. >> good to see you thanks for joining us here. up next, counseldown to intel. stacey is back with us. we're back on "closing bell" after this when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the

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welcome back now all eyes on intel as they set to report earnings in "overtime. here to discusses, stacey raskon we do this every quarter. >> i'm back. >> coming off the true lows, as it relates to intel. not that you're on any level of high, but what do we really expect today >> the quarter should be fine.

they effectively positively preann preannounced they ought bo beat the quarter. going forward, i think the pc environment looks better, situations are kind of normalized i'm nervous about traditional data center, the shift they're spending to gpus that they don't sell very much of. going into next year, the company made some -- what they said was that they expected growth margins to expand not by hundreds of hundreds of basis points i don't know exactly what that means. we actually took or revenues up, but i took my earnings revenue

down, so any color on that would be-ful >> since you took those down, is that what keeps us from buying the stock here i was going to say, the risk/reward, why not at some point these things get so bad they're good. that's almost how you were on the upgrade. yeah to be fair, though, it was pretty close to book value, so it's higher than that now, right? again, we don't exactly know where the numbers need to go next year i don't know what it looks like if i'm looking out in three, four, five years. i mean, are gpus and data center going to take shares away? is it small are or bigger than today? can they proceed on the process road map even if they do, what do the

economics of that look like? do they look like samsung or worse? there's a lot of uncertainty i'm conversationable staying on the sidelines at this point until we get more clarity on what that trajectory is. >> was going to use the word clarity myself >> at least for nvidia, people worry about the sustainability, just because the numbers are getting so big so quickly, but there is real demand for their products clearly there's demand they can't supply everything that's there there is demand for the a.i. parts. they sell those to google. bro broadcom's core business did get weaker, but it's stronger, bridging the gap, so the numbers are fine the core numbers are reset, so

it makes numbers easier. and then we'll see if they close vmware next week or not. if they manage to close that, that's not in the ummers even without those numbers, the stock is cheap i'm look at texas instruments, such a bad day in the mark, but it's up. they thought q4 was just modelled wrong, and we thought they would trend down, and they actually guided eight or nine points below, and you can back it out they were implicitly guiding gross margins at 60% or lower. though, it was funny yesterday, the bundling was horrible,

outperformed to the broader sector i think there were enough structural headwinds that i understand what they're doing, and why. i think the time frame is fine over the next 12 months, it makes it challenging >> is there a best stock in your orbit that not enough people were talking about >> people kind of talk about everything >> well, not really. you know what i mean it's dominated by amd, nvidia, broadcom. >> the ones that are sort of not as main democrat stream, probably rod com that is a stock that i've always loved. i feel like it doesn't get the

respect and the valuation that it deserves. so that is one that i would love to get more attention, but it's not a household name i thought you were going to say applied materials or something like that? >> maybe i'm long term. >> i enjoy it as always. stacey, be well. >> thanks, man. kristina partsinevelos is back with us >> despite the many, many barbie and ken hall -- halloween costumes, it's not enough to lift the trends. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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. kristina >> hasbro gave a poor outlook, blaming a softer toy outlook this is something we heard from competitor a day ago.

restaurants, entertainment, and inflation, spending trends in okay are starting to weaken mastercard is down 5 scott, will you be ken for halloween? negative. last chance to weigh in on our question of the date which stocks could be due for a bounds the results just after this break.

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all right. let's do it. we're in the market zone mike santoli is here, plus another wave of earnings in overtime today phil lebeau on ford, kate rogers on chipotle and deirdre on the biggie, amazon the answer to the question of the day is -- amazon. >> are you surprised >> i'm not from a game theory perspective, which is to say it's down most from its highs it's anticipated, and it's reporting earnings you know, in a few minutes the point being, if you're looking for a dat list and the fact that the setup likes favorable, it makes sense, but it is surprising that the

fundamental story and how it plays through to the bottom like is murkier than it is with the likes of meta or microsoft. >> you know, returning to that will be key. how would you assess so far this week, now that we're basically through this batch, and what we make of it, what it tells us, if anything >> you have some definite any surrender happening. that's part of the process, the corrections go through these waves. that being said, the wear and tear has been significant. he's been cracking through the full support levels pretty consistently more stocks up and down in the new york stock exchange. >> thank you, russell. >> it's like barely down a week. so that more favorably that's a catch-down move by the stuff that hasn't been caught yet.

the problem is drawing the make rho messages, it hasn't been positive despite the gdp numbers. i've been trying to make the case, they have already been hit. today, you see u.p.s., whirlpool, you know, you see harley-davidson getting taken apart on bad numbers, when you might have been able to make the case that it's another wave in that process. >> i know amazon is sucking the air out room phil, i suspect most of the commentary will be around the strike, but nonetheless, what should we be looking for >> reporter: look, they'll have strong numbers it was a solid summer, the strike had a minimal impact in the bottom line for the third quarter. when you look at the q3

consensus, the estimates is the profits will be up about 50% i don't think people will be too out what can unless the numbers are dramatically higher or lower. what's happening with ev investments, you know, that was a major contentious issue that the uaw brought up, that they wanted representation at ford's future battery plants. no doubt that question will come up a couple others things to keep in mind. scott, this is a contract that will cost ford an additional 25% for all of the 57,000 uaw workers over the nest xt 4 1/2 years. and how quickly will they fully resume production. it's going to take some time in order for these three plants to get back up and running. keep in mind, this is a company that's trying, trying to pivot to more hybrid vehicles as the

ev demand is slowing in this country. >> phil, we'll see thank you. phil lebeau on ford. kate rogers, what do we look out for on chipotle. >> comps are expected to increase 4.6% compared to the guidance of low to mid single digits pricing is a key focus. >> it's maintained its pricing power, not seeing consumers pull back or trade down it did confirm earlier this month to cnbc it would take a modest price increase to offset inflation. the company saw higher prices for things like dairy and beef, but avocado's price came down. still about 30%, year to day one of the best performers in the sector for the year.

we're also, of course, going to have an exclusive with brian nichols after earnings next hour, so tune in for much more >> we'll see you in "overtime." finally, dee, amazon aws, reemergence will we get it or not. mark said only 50-50 chance. >> we need to be reemergence it's been six or eight quarters. we have seen market contraction. this need to be on the upswing that's really kind what the quarter rests on can andy jassy and his team say we have seen the bo many

microsoft essentially told us, it can monetize it now, so the bar is not much higher for amazon last thing i'll say, scott, this is an e-commerce company we're heading into the holiday quarter, so amazon will give guidance deirdre, thank you very much back to mike santoli alphabet down 11, meta down near 8, amd down 9. >> yeah, they have become essentially the source of funds to do anything else, which is possibly put it in catch look, they are growing more reliably that is the rest of the market i do think it will be interesting to see what they can make out of this will it be three of these days

in a row with big cap tech earnings being reported, and you sell the number? that will be unusual. we will find out in a short period of time thanks so much amazon on deck in "o.t." with morgan and jon. \s. a little rough, but stay with us. >> it's the bus ye days of earnings season. we will be juggling results this hour, as the tech sell-off accelerates. plus, ford with news of a labor deal and chipotle. instant reaction and analysis with bria