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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 27, 2023 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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reports are the big ones macro market moving events next week potentially. >> can't forget about that jobs report there is so many questions about that labor tightness. >> that's right. we did have a down week for the major averages we're lower on the month still the seasonal uplift hasn't happened yet that's going to do it. >> have a good weekend "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market in the heart of new york city times square, here's what's on tap tonight. a rough week next up, a fed meeting and more mega cap results is a november rebound in the cards? sglrchlts plus, unhealthy returns. shares crushed after an earnings miss the rest of the sector hit hard today, too will pharma continue to be a tough pill to swallow? and boomers versus millennials why one bank says there is a clear winner here.
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will it be okay, boomer, or, yeah, boomer we start off at the rough end to a volatile week. the dow plunging 366 points to mark its lowest close since march. the midday selloff coming as israel increases air attacks in gaza and expands activity of the ground forces there. the nasdaq held on to a gain today. still all three indexes were well in the red for the week the action coming as we head into another big week for markets, headlined by a fed decision on wednesday. apple earnings a day later so with all this uncertainty looming over the markets, what should the week be ahead >> that has been the road map of the past week and of the past two weeks. the question is to what extent as we go into a great seasonal time the vix is telling you some of that carter probably has some views in that, too we've also, from an earnings
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perspective, we spent some time evaluating where numbers that were seemingly not bad on a relative basis to expectations really weren't that great if you consider the cycle i think it was a week where think of some of the data we had in terms of gdp and the jobless numbers. in other words, a lot of strength and suddenly kind of in your face objecjuxtaposed against th risk equities recognize their quarter might be as good as it got in terms of the economy and in terms of jobs. and i think we priced a lot of that in. the good news is that i think we've seen bottoms in staples. karen talked about this, too bottoming in things like utilities. i think you still are going to continue to see some strength. and on some level as an investor, i get excited. we will talk about health care and pharma that's getting beat up i think that's creating a lot of opportunities here the last two weeks have been all about fear you've got what's going on geo
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politically, the horrors of the middle east. it is no wonder they traded the way they have. >> karen, apple or the fed, which one are you most excited about at this point? >> well, i'm not so bullish on apple. and i kind of think the fed has to pause i don't know if the rhetoric will be quite as hawkish, maybe. some of this data that tim just talked about is fairly hot, right? so that isn't great. but i'm always, always long. a week like this is just, you know, terrible but it's also interesting to me. i'd rather be -- i did just sell, rather. >> she gets away with it because she's always so well behaved here. >> i try so, i mean, i like when things are just kind of -- the vix is going much higher. things are kind of gapping down. it's painful, but i think it creates opportunities. and, so, i'm going to be looking to buy things next week. >> or is this all a trap,
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carter >> yes, yes. i think there is still more risk here's the thing the setup for this condition we have now is something that is seen so many times it's bifurcation where you have great extended winners where everything else is not working and the thought often is that bifurcations resolve because the winners are telling the truth. homebuilders are right and apple is right and the losers will come to light. but bifurcation has never been resolved that way. the weak get even weaker, which is what's happening. new lows, all the extended have all succumbed. meaning apple rolled over. the bifurcation, which was the setup for this three-month sell justify is in the process of being resolved, but i don't think it is finished. >> is that how you see it? it converges to the downside at this point >> yeah. so if you look at rates, everyone was concerned with the ten-year popping to 5% that's backed off.
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i think to karen's point, i believe karen said the fed has to stop. they can't raise rates i believe that i think that's bullish for the market tim touched on geopolitical. geopolitical to me is probably the biggest -- i was going to say outlier, but the biggest threat to the markets moving higher you see corporate spend pull back the consumer hasn't pulled back. so if you look at the consumer -- so the bears probably got christmas early this year, melissa but the argument that the bears have is that the consumer is weak then the inflation data comes out high so the consumer still is spending so you can't have it both ways i think inflation is coming down, and the consumer is spending money that's probably a sweet-spot for the economy. but we have the u.s. bomb syria last night so not only is there a ground invasion, so i think this has the potential to escalate
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further and hold back. go ahead. >> what i was going to say, steve, i think the question is, as we weigh -- you framed it as we weigh what's going on geopolitically with what we've had with the fed, i agree. i also look at kind of the move we've seen in things like gold and things that are -- that are telling you that the market is really unnerved. i guess the question back to you or to the group is ultimately where are we in terms of some of -- some of the risk factors that tell us well, the vic is at 22, gold at over 2,000 and the boj looming in terms of rates, these are the things that i think are telling us that the market is not ready to work this through to be clear, i think the last two weeks, you know, i come out of this week feeling like markets -- i won't use a charts term i feel like markets are surging here >> and you need a hug for
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handles. just to put a bow on it, you need 100 handles lower, probably that big fat round number of 4,000 in the s&p probably gets people excited. >> where do rates go in the meantime >> that's it rates close on the low for the week, right? >> yeah. >> so the sinister outcome is that you start actually getting lower stocks >> lower rates. >> what's happened is the peak was the 27th of july here we are the 27th of october. it's exactly three months. s&p down 10.5% that's garden variety. i mean, what is so bad you would think the world is ending there is so much perspective with the dropping in gapping you see in big names like ford, big moves. and we've seen it last week in one of the credit agencies transunion that kind of price action, that kind of dropping in gapping
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doesn't happen when it's, oh, we're near the bottom. that's when it is starting to get panicky. and the panicking is likely to get worse. >> one other thing we have to look at on the calendar is the quarterly funding announcement, right? on monday, how are you going to do it? what's going to be the case? i mean, that sort of sparked that, this last big rally down, we'll see if more bad news that, to me, is more important. >> or potentially an offset of the bonds because of the bid for safe havens in general given what's happening in the middle east at this point. >> but the flight to quality would be short-term, right if you don't want to take duration risk. and they're paying you 5, 2, 3, whatever it is right now. >> in terms of the pain that's out there, there's been no place to hide. a lot of people and because rates historically in the last 15 years for a lot of folks, especially in the advisory community, any time you saw rates go higher, it was an opportunity to get investors
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into higher yield environments i think the destruction there's been in moving people out the duration curve has been incredible, especially even in relatively conservative parts of the treasury curve and aaa corporate and immunities and whatnot. i just think that's what has the investor community unnerved. a lot of people relatively new and this hasn't been an easy time to do that. >> turning to today's pce data and what to expect from next week's fed meeting, dana peterson joins us onset. welcome to the show. are you expecting a pause? what do you think we'll hear from jared powell. >> we are expecting a pause. they indicated they have seen enough in terms of slower inflation, and they're concerned about the run-off in bond yields and how that intensifies financial conditions. >> so are you expecting this to be a pause
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in other words, there could be another hike in the coming or that this is probably the pause that ends this cycle >> well, there could very well be another hike. certainly we're looking at december if we continue to see data coming in as strong as it has been, we saw third quarter gdp coming in strong but inflation in labor marketing, we will see two more inflation markets next week. if those are strong, the fed might consider another hike. >> so a lot of times we see they might have -- let's say they pause. do you think the rhetoric will be hawkish or dovish what do you think they're going to say >> i think the rhetoric has to be hawkish because the moment they go even a little bit dovish, you will see mortgage rates come up, the housing market come roaring back, financial conditions loosening and market cuts right around the corner so the fed needs to keep the heat on. >> first of all, thanks for joining us. >> crypto launch
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>> the move, the aggressive move in the long end of the bond market by any measure, this backup in rates has been something that has had technical components to it there's truly some fundamental dynamics and inflationary dynamics as we talk about orderly moves in the bond market are fine. disorderly and how do you feel about this move how do they feel about this move i would love to hear your tip. >> i think they might be disturbed by it given the fact that it's happened so quickly. i think it's fundamental we are seeing cracks in the facade of the la boar market consumers are becoming more indebted, falling behind in their credit card payments and the banking sector, i don't think it is out of the woods in terms of future risk, especially with regard to consumers as well as pre with all of that, markets are expecting that, yes, that means higher for longer. but i think that realization just came way too quickly and certainly was disruptive for
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markets. >> when do you think the consumer cracks? >> when? we still have a recession call for the first half of next year. that's really when we will see negative consumer spending, probably zero payroll gains and businesses pulling back not only in investment but maybe letting a few people go. the key thing is that many businesses think this will be a short and shallow recession, so they're not letting people go. you do need the labor market to soften in order for rates to work. >> is there a rate you think we will hit. >> in terms of the unemployment rate >> yes we're thinking 4.2%. that's notely higher than 3.5% roughly 700,000 job losses. >> wow what surprised you about the trajectory of the economy this year because i feel like everybody has gotten it wrong. i'm just wondering when you look back at it, what did you get wrong? what is the unknown that you're thinking that's the asteric in
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my forecast. >> we underestimated the power of consumer spending and consumers weren't shy about pulling out their credit cards so we still have a lot of spending i think some of that will cool off. again, you have student loan debt coming online that will affect consumers who are 35 and 50 those are your peak spending years. and certainly we're starting to see many consumers complain -- still complain about inflation but also higher interest rates. >> dana, thanks so much for stopping by. appreciate it. >> steve grasso, what do you think? what does the stock market do? >> yeah. i mean, it's obvious that if the consumer cracks, then that's the lynch pin that's holding this market together. but if you think that the problem that we're having with the market is the monetary policy and fiscal policy are butting heads right now, we're in an election year cycle. what's going to happen the administration can't let the
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consumer fall apart. so there's got to be something thrown at the consumer, which means more spending. higher inflation so qt is the biggest problem that i see that no matter if -- it doesn't matter if the feds stops raising rates right now. qt is really tightening the market behind the scenes in a much more active way and they say it's passive. it's not passive so if the consumer cracks, the market cracks. if unemployment spikes, the market goes low. >> is that what we're factoring in already, though >> i don't know. i was going to ask steve about qt i mean, are you saying that as if you think they're going to stop qt? >> no. >> and the gdp number was really good it is not like they put a noose around the economy's neck yet. >> yeah. but the gdp number, consumer was hot, and corporate spend, business spend was not and qt, they will keep their foot on the gas until 2025 at
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the very least if you remember what the fed's balance sheet prepandemic, it was 4 trilli$4 trillion do, kar. they want to see that crack. they can't stop qt and that -- if you look at the ten-year, i have said this before of the ten-year spike, as soon as qt doubled up on their rate -- on their monthly rate, so qt is tightening more than anything else. they're going to continue that and to melissa's original question, to dana's point, if the consumer cracks, which none of us have seen yet, andi don' think they're going to crack, but if they do, the market falls. >> carter, do you think if you take a look at retail charts, consumer discretionary charts that we will see a bottom before that cracks some time in the first half >> if you look at the xrt which is a beautiful index, about 130 stocks everything from walmart to amazon to things like gap that
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are very small and footlocker, it is making 52-week lows as we speak. right? it was a huge outperformer relative to the consumer discretionary sector during covid after the lows and a massive underperformer this is what a classic breakdown setup is this whole index ultimately is like the breakdown. coming up, pharma flop the company issued a dire warning before the bell. we'll look at the broader industry next. plus, jaime is cashing out well, just a little bit. jp morgan shares dropping more than 3% after the ceo dropped a million shares in the market or plans to next year, we should say. why that could be an ominous sign for the financial more "fast money" after this this is american infrastructure.
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welcome back to "fast money. a major buzz kill for sanofi fellow pharma stock abbvie also getting hit. a 2$2.1 billion charge for its cancer drug. karen, you flagged abbvie in
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particular these are big moves for pharma >> it is $100 billion company. i mean, these are not small companies. these are massive moves. >> yeah. and abbvie had their botox and juvederm mist. even though it wasn't a giant line item. but a horrible day, horrible day to own many stocks, but particularly the emergency room of big cap pharma or now smaller cap pharma was terrible across the board. >> yeah. it's been so weak. wears make 52-week lows. so the pfizer. j&j. i mean, it is really bifurcated. >> yeah. i think it's setting up for great opportunities. but i have exposure to merck, pfizer, some to abbvie and i think, you know, in bmy's case, this is a company that
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continues to disappoint. this stock has been going down they gave guidance that said they will need an extra year to hit a lot of their pipeline targets. this is what we're hearing from these companies. there is certainly an investment community that believes these companies have to spend more those companies are the ones being exposed here because they're now coming due the sanofi move, they have a big investor day coming up i think this sets up for an opportunity. but i don't think you touch a name this quickly after this move today. >> the abbvie move underscores the notion of the unknown associated with medicare part d and theimpact on revenues from these drugs are identified on this list. we're coming into an election year you wonder if there will be a lot of noise around this sector as well. >> yeah. those are -- that's also the poster child for election years, to your point. and when we have the pandemic, it was all of the vaccine-related drugs that spiked higher. pandemic ended
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they all spiked lower. glp 1 inhibitors and that's still an expensive drug there is not going to be a lot of circulation for that class of drugs. but i still think you have to go with that theme because that's sucking up all the oxygen in the room and for all of us to try to see how we can navigate medicare or medicaid and the political part of it, too complex stick with the ones that worked. but eli lilly already worked i would go with an angen who hasn't had a bill wind yet i would stick with that one. >> all right there is a lot more fast one to come here's what's coming up next okay, boomer bank of america says youth is overrated. we'll dive into a generational pairs trade that could put the baby boom back in your portfolio. plus, the diamond dump jp morgan's ceo is doing something he's never done,
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waiving good-bye to a million shares of the company. how much should we read into this sale? we'll get some answers next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ when better money habits® content first started coming out, it expanded what i could do for special olympics athletes with developmental needs. thousands of bank of america employees like scott spend countless hours volunteering to teach people how to reach their financial goals. it felt good. it felt like i could take on the whole world.
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of jp morgan being hit today. one million shares of the big falling next year. according to a regulatory filing, it will be the first since 2005 250% since then. but the news stays after a comment from the global economy at the future investment initiative this week he says central banks were 100% dead wrong a couple
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months ago and that he would be quite cautious going into next year is he also a good seller, even if it's for many different reasons? and/or is he planning to leave the bank, karen? >> so he is not planning to leave the bank so but to think about, you know, i would much rather he'd not be selling stock. however, there is a lot of reasons people sell stock, right? diversification. that would be the main one here. but also, you know, he could have begun selling stock already. >> right. >> and just filed a form 4 like most people do him saying in 2024, this is my plan, i'm going to do this, he's going to do it regardless of price. so i don't love to see it. i mean, the stock is dpoun $5 toe dachlt i hate that although the market for bank
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stocks also terrible today i think it was, you know, on the worst side, but not the worst. so i think that i wouldn't read that much into it. one more thing to note, though he still has a fortune in stock. plus, he has his performance stock units that could make him nearly whole to this sale. so he has a ton of money on the table. >> well, a couple things obviously, it's been the place that everyone has been hiding. look at the relative performance, he's going back down too just in the past two weeks. is it -- and this is your role, not mine is it cheap at 1.2 times what other every month. >> it's not 1.23 times it's more than that. >> i'm talking about both, right. 1.35 versus every other bank below 1. it's more like 1.15, 1.2 maybe it still belongs at a lower level.
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here's the question. do you buy in when a stock just dropped in cap if you didn't know the news? forget the news. forget the news. the stock dropped in gap we know it was because they sold good technique is never to buy when a stock drops. >> did you just refer to them as fundamentalists? that's what i heard the shark guy talking about. >> no, no. >> carter is right to point out that sometimes, you know, technicals tell a story that doesn't matter how you could have crafted the fundamental story. the relative outperformance of jp morgan is critical. i think it is a case of fundamentals it's not only a balance sheet dynamic. it's the businesses that they're in and the strength that they have and the pricing card that they have. frankly, they haven't had to price quite as aggressively. they don't need to do it it is a really interesting time because i think banks are not an exciting place to be this is a day, by the way, where it is very small
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the bank doesn't mean much at all. but you have this republic first bank that we learned is getting bailed out and there is some sense there is another wave of these to come. so is jp morgan worth owning at this time? the one thing that's been interesting about what banks have been able to do and even with svp, they're paying normalized dividends again they are able to give back to investors via buybacks and dividends. jp morgan probably will continue to have that strength. but jaime diamond, by the way, you know, it was personally career-wise when he moved out from sandy wild at citi bank, and it was probably a hard time, look at the performance. it's kind of a joke. >> coming up, okay, boomer bank of america is putting a generational pairs trade on the names behind the boomer boom and why it might be time to fade the young folks. plus, negative energy. disappointing earnings before the bell
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a strange mismatch in the energy market "fast money" is back right after this. missed a moment of fast? ll th it on the go foowhe "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing out a rough week. the dow tumbling the worst day since march since it enters correction territory the nasdaq managed a gain of four-tenths of a percent shares of charter communications falling nearly 10% after delivering results this morning. the cable giant reporting a deceleration, losing more than 300,000 video customers, blaming the loss on the disney dispute in early september disney postponing movie releases like a live action remake of "snow white" citing the actor strike and ford shares sliding more than 12% after an earnings miss. the auto makers saying ev demand is falling short of expectations let's stick with the transports here ups continuing its slide after reporting earnings yesterday the stock at lows last seen in july of 2020
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it's been underperforming and delivering for feddex in a big year fedex gained more than 30% you know what got us thinking? we should play a friday edition of "would you rather"? >> why not >> tim, you flagged ups versus fedex. >> i just think some of these trades are really challenging because obviously you can find pairs and pit them against each other and be wrong on both sides. be careful this is a case where we've had a 50% performance of fedex to ups. a year ago, it was the exact opposite fedex was a company stumbling and fumbling there was a lot of questions about the management ups which historically trades six, seven turns expensive on a pe multiple to fedex is now trading around 14.5, 15 times to fedex's 11 times after 50% underperformance, i would rather ups, and i will
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just say this overall about this environment, i think it is a stock picker's environment i'm looking at a report from wolf whose title is death by a thousand cuts and he goes on to say, i've lowered my eps on these guys seven times this year that's where ups is, and i think the sentiment is awful. >> carter taking a look at coke versus pepsi, the classic battle here each down more than 10% on the year is there a winner here >> we might have a chart here. in the pairs business, we have a lot of clients dedicated what they look at is ratio t charts this chart you see on your screen going back some 34 years is the relative performance of coke to pepsi. so coke is essentially back at all-time lows versus pepsi now, you say, yeah, it will get even worse and make new lows or this is where it bounces because it is so bad it's good
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that is to bet against the bad chart. the bad chart says it gets worse. but the ratio is so bad, my pick is coke relative to pepsi. >> steve, what is your call on this one >> i think i would play coke better than pepsi. pepsi focuses on snack food, has much larger diversified base coke concentrates on beverage. if you look at those -- the obesity drugs, they're going to curtail or lease the ideas they will curtail the snacking ability. i'd rather focus on something that's focused on beverages. i think the gop inhibitors will probably affect pepsi more than coke i go with coke. >> okay. our final would you rather here. target down nearly 30% this year, while walmart has served 13 plus percent. karen, what do you think >> well, i have target and walmart and target versus
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walmart, which in the last month has done okay. prior to that not okay i think the differential is so high that it's just too wide and they have to converge. that hasn't happened so far. i mean, walmart is in better position, we know. the business is a much better place to be right now. target's higher margin stuff not great right now. but i do think that this is just a pretty wide margin that will converge. >> there is also a bit of a turn-around in target's business here. >> look, i'm long on walmart much less than i was walmart has been so defensive here it's destroyed target. we know why. karen highlighted a couple of reasons. i like target over walmart here, no question. >> tim, just look at it. it really is how the pairs business works and what you will see, if we have it, is that the spread, one versus the other, with the moving averages at or near
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record reads so it is just a meaner version can you catch a balance? independent of one is better than the other, cheap or not and i think it can. >> all right meantime, former ceo sam b bankman-fried testifying today kate slive with all the headlines. >> on the stand today, sam bankman-fried talked about mistakes and acknowledged customers were hurt in the collapse of his crypto exchange and he tried to shift the blame today. but he said he didn't commit fraud, saying his biggest mistake was not controlling risk when asked if ftx had a risk management department, he responded we sure should have. that got some laughs in the courtroom today. when asked by his attorney, did you defraud anyone he said, no, i did not he also said no when asked if he took customer funds. bankman-fried has tried to place the blame on other executives
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that already pleaded guilty. it is really his word versus theirs at this point he said he was too busy to run both crypto companies he owned he also said he was too busy to even get a haircut one of the people he's blaming, his former girlfriend and the ceo. their romantic relationship came up today bankman-fried said he didn't have the time or energy for her either separately, he said he did not direct colleagues to make political donations either as far as the billions spent on investments, he said he believed that money came from alameda profits. he thought it was okay because he owned the hedge fund and saw no reason why he couldn't borrow from it. >> kate, thanks. meantime, we have 8 to 10 filings of possible bitcoin dockets. bitcoin is not doing too badly these days what do you make of this move? >> that's right. it's been something we talked about remarkably out of the
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move my hunch is it will tire, but small. >> my hunch is that bitcoin should trade for some reasons that gold does, in addition to the regulatory tailwind that could be massive i will continue to say more regulation is better for bitcoin prices in terms of institutional adoption gold made 11.5% move gold miners are rallying this is the place you want to be right now. coming up, is this just a harbinger of harder times ahead for big oil? we'll tackle that. later, much their skinny jeans and avocado toast, is investing in millennials trend over bank of america is betting big on boomers okay, boomers. we'll explain why.
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welcome back to "fast money. big oil slumping today chevron dropping 7% after reporting an earnings miss the stock is down six days in a row. that's the longest losing streak since 2021 exxon feeling the heat that company's profit falling from last year's record numbers. they missed earnings estimates
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by 10 cents a share. a head wind for big oil might be straight ahead. our next guest expects gasoline prices to slump ahead of thanksgiving so, tom, great to have you with us but you think oil prices are going higher even though gas prices are going lower how unusual is that? >> well, it seems like it just happened but before the hamas bombing, we saw gasoline prices lose anywhere from 50 cents east of the rockies to about $1 a gallon in value so we're going to be dropping our retail prices. this weekend we'll see the average price below $3.50 for the first time since march and the problem, if you look out through the next four months or so, is that refiners are going to be making too much gasoline we use about 8% less than we did in the peak years. and last year the only thing that averted a slump was the
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fact we had that winter storm elliott right around christmastime. so you don't need to host telethons for the refineries they're okay they're making enough on deiese and jet fuels to pay the bills it will be a tailwind for consumers. people lock at gasoline prices the same way i look at the dallas cowboys when they win, it annoys me. >> yes yes, tom, yes. >> will it be true for a lot of other products as well will jet fuel prices come down will heating oil prices go down as well? >> i think heating oil and diesel prices could catch fire if we have a winter as opposed to last year where we really just, you know, short days with temperatures that you can see more from march or april, then we have a problem because we have low inventories in europe and in the midwest but, again, that will pay the
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bills. that will enable people to buy gasoline at cheap prices this weekend probably 30,000 sites are going to be selling gasoline for less than $3. unless you live in california, where, you know, some really terrible things could happen in the first quarter of the year, you are not looking at a real increase for quite a while. >> love your view on the cowboys. love your view on the markets. it is good to have you back. what do you think of the consolidation in this sector what is this a tell on in terms of gas and oil prices and what they're out there searching for? >> it is a tell on the fact that they can't really find real, productive growth by simply looking at new projects, whether than big projects for natural gas and for oil. there is no other new guillana out there. if you look at that and the fact that that was pretty much the deal that got chevron excited about that, we don't have that
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and, you know, people will argue about evs, but you will probably not be deploying a lot of capital for a 10 or 15-year project right now. so i suspect we will see some more deals in crude oil. and i think we're going to see more deals in refining as well. >> if you want to name names, we would welcome them because it is interesting to us to trade them. i'm wondering how high you think oil prices will go. >> i think there is a different forecast for crude oil than there is for gasoline. we were fortunate in the fact that we started to see a lot of money pour into crude oil after the hamas bombing. but it was when refiners are losing -- excuse me, not losing three billion barrels a day about their capacity because it is down for maintenance, that comes back on for november but don't be seduced
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i mean, the one thing i love about "fast money" is you taught me not to be seduced by some of these valuations in equities don't be seduced by the talk about $100 to $150 let's get to $90 before we talk about that >> all right tom, thank you always good to get your take >> all right steve grasso, there are a lot of players in the oil space that are said to be, you know, possibly acquirers, acquirees, what do you think? >> i don't like exxon mobile or chevron on that mna deal tim asked tom what he thought. i think that was the top of the market there npc, marathon petroleum as far and away beat everyone else out on performance i love the chart there is no one even close i don't know if they're going to acquire someone. it's a huge company.
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but i would sniff around on mpc on either side of that equation. and i think you will be okay whether or not there is any mna or not. >> well, i mean, the big issue here is the price action in chevron and exxon. we know the entire sector that is energy, there is emp names, right? and there is refining and oil services, but the big integrators and there are three that make it up, which are halfway to the entire sector, they're under real pressure. in fact, they're breaking trends since the covid low. it is a real trap. we broke out and now we're faltering. this has been one area of the market that has been consistently good since the covid lull and now it too is under pressure. >> bank of america says it is time to bet on that generation, boomers. guy, are you out there listen up. i know you're watching we've got that play book next. here is a sneak peek at the cramer camp. catch the full interview at the
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top of the hour. more "fast money" in two this is american infrastructure,
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welcome back to "fast money. okay, boomer more like, oh, yeah, boomer. bank of america saying it is time to get long golden generation and get short on
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mille millennials. analysts say a boomer or boomers are in better financial positions than their cohorts and lay out the areas that could benefit. this play book includes buying toll brothers, american express and service corporation. yes, that is a funeral and cemetery operator. and just short revolve, a trendy clothing retailer. karen, you flagged this one. this is interesting. this is a very sort of interesting case that was laid out. they're saying this is a greatest wealth transfer since 1980 they hold a lot of network in fixed interest rates this is helping them stay flush. >> yeah. and beyond the fixed mortgage rates, they have a lot of money in savings i don't know i like this. i thought it was interesting it made sense to me where you can see some of the sort of millennial type names like sofi
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or something like that that at the moment the bloom is off the rose so i think cruises was another one. did you mention that that wouldn't exactly be for me, but i guess it i think it makes sense and i think there is more to go in this. >> cemeteries and funeral services is like the safety trade, carter. >> that's completely different that's some highly nondiscretionary, yes? but anyway, the xrt, it gets back to this, the xrt is so dominated by basically things you don't have you don't have to go to footlocker or gap and it goes on and on and that there is a reason that this is to a close, whereas if you look at the s&p 500, hotel, hospitality group, it is quite a bit better so those relationships are what they are there is a lot of sort of correlation. but right now, the former, the retail-related type indexes are much worse. >> i feel that payments were,
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obviously, eliminated this week as being a big problem i look at american express and i recognize they have a different credit quality i also recognize, though, i still there is a still lot more. they have decent numbers and the stock is really a tell so i just think that the consumer has been amazingly resilient, as they should have been that's all we have been talking about all week therefore, boomer or not, i think some of the mill len yan stocks, certainly the consumer finance names, those are going a lot lower. i don't like housing i don't like names relative to housing. i do like rh over williams sonoma, things like that at this point. but i get the concept of the demographics i look at the stocks on here, and there is none of them i want to buy. >> how about you, grasso >> i think i echo what tim is laying down there. american express, i love the stock. i agree with the premise, but the chart looks messy for me
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if the consumer starts to die off, i don't care where you are on that spectrum you are going to pull back on spending toll brothers, there is only so much the builders can do to buy down the mortgage rates. so unless mortgage rates crack, you are not going to see any real activity. we have already seen that combust there. i would wait to see what that first quarter looks like next year, 2024, to see what shape the consumer is in. >> did you just say if you die you can't spend? >> no. did i say that i hope -- i hope i didn't say that. >> depends what you put in your will. >> i meant if the consumer dies off, not if they literally die off. but it makes sense either way. >> i had to ask. >> sometimes things so simple are so complex. >> all right up next, final trades.
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chip? at&t business.
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time for the final trade lechlt's go around the horn. steve? >> arista networks up 45% year to date. they have the power of selling off. just sold off. i'm looking for it to spike higher >> chevron i since traded from 180 down to 140. the fundamental as a company has
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to get better. there are dividend payments, yesterday. >> same. same final trade as yesterday, meta. >> apple short into earnings if it's good, it will give back. if it's bad, it could be a at e enlathsce . >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. they have -- mad money starts now. >> hi, i'm kramer. welcome to bad money. i'm trying to make a little money. my job is not just entertaining but teaching. these days are just brutal, aren't they? dow plunging seven points, snp falling,

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