the growth of artificial intelligence we will take you live to washington. united auto workers, on the one hand, reaching a tentative deal with stellantis, on the other hand, expanding its strike against general motors details ahead. plus, it's fed week and jobs on friday. jobs week and continuing heavy flooding of earnings. plus trick-or-treat tomorrow big day. turn the lights off. w the we'll get you ready it's monday. >> raining outside. >> oh, gosh, it's monday "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on

cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site from times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin yes, it's monday if you are here in new york, it is raining hard. raining like cats and dogs check it out west side highway is fun travel in the middle lane. we're here that is a victory. u.s. equities are looking up if you need something to wake up to this morning. dow futures are indicated up 160 points s&p futures up 28. nasdaq up 117. it was a rough week for the markets last week. all of the major averages down by 2%. you had the nasdaq down more than 2.5%. we will continue to watch and see what happens this week a lot of that was based on the treasury market last week. let's check out yields and see where things stand ten-year yield is 4.6% below the 5% level we saw last

week two-year note is 5.03%. talk about waking up for something. united auto workers reaching a tentative deal with stellantis over the weekend, but expanded the strike against gm. phil lebeau is here with all of the latest details phil, where are we here? >> reporter: andrew, very busy weekend. two down, one to go. that's where we stand with the uaw and the ongoing strikes or strikes that finished with the big three. here is what bewe had over the weekend. united auto workers and stellantis reached a four and a half year contract many thought gm would have the next agreement part of the agreement is huge. they will reopen the plant outside rockford, illinois meanwhile, the uaw threw a curve ball they said we will expand the gm strike and call in the plant in

tennessee. in spring hill, tennessee. that plant builds three cadillac models if you add the production at that plant along with the other plants already on strike for the uaw for gm, that means 50.8% of general motors u.s. production has now been stopped by strikes. is that enough to get gm and the uaw to finalize agreement? gm putting out a statement after a new strike in spring hill, tennessee saying we have continued to bargain in good faith and our goal is to reach agreement as quickly as possible speaking of agreements, stellantis and ford have agreements in place and they outlined the ford agreement which includes $8.1 billion in new commitments to facilities that the uaw staffs. we will see ratification votes

in the next couple weeks while that happens, you will see ford and uaw workers return to work and gradually production will begin or restart at the plants where strikes were taking place. >> phil, in terms of what's on the table for gm, how does it differ from what stellantis accepted and what ford has accepted >> reporter: we don't know the particulars. my guess is what you are looking at here is shawn fain and the uaw is pushing on the economics. in that regard, they he ave the 25% raise from ford and stellantis locked in you will likely see the same from general motors and other commitments with cost of living and retirement and starter pay for the uaw being higher than where it is right now. i suspect, andrew, what you are

looking at right now is them trying to lock in commitments for future investments in different plants that may include commitments for ev battery plant, do those people come into the master contract those employees in the future have to vote on that we don't know if that is part of the gm-uaw negotiations. that is part of the ford agreement with the uaw some of the workers at some of the plants planned in the future and if those workers vote to join the uaw, they are part of the master contract. that is what we think it is at this stage i would not be surprised if we hear an announcement in the next couple days that gm and uaw have an agreement we know they were close last week >> phil lebeau, we will keep watching this. thank you. you bet someone got up early in d.c. the white house releasing

details of the executive order to direct federal agencies to regulate and shape the growth of artificial intelligence. eamon javers is joining us now with more. they got up then you had to get up, eamon. >> reporter: no way around it, joe. good morning this is a wide ranging executive order directing just about every federal agency to regulate and shape the growth of a.i. in an effort to protect the public and economy and national security. president biden's power is limited here to the executive branch with the executive order, but with congress unlikely to produce new laws around this until next year, if at all, this is likely to be the most aggressive piece of american legislation over the industry for some time to come. an moppmong the safety measures systems to share the safety test results with the u.s. government national institute of standards

will set rigorous standards for red-team testing before release of any product agencies doing bio-tech products will have strong stan doppler radar -- standards for screening. they will develop guidance and content authentication and watermarking for a.i. content and prevent a.i. leaks it will use a.i. tools to develop fixes for vulnerabilities in critical software there is an effort here to stop unintentional a.i.-based discrimination it will provide guidance to landlords and other contractors in using a.i. to prevent discrimination civil rights offices will train on how to investigate violations to a.i

and a.i. could be on the brink of eliminating millions of jobs and biden is addressing the administration to deliver a report on the labor impacts and identify options for strengthening support for workers who face labor disruption from a.i. a lot going on here, joe back to you. >> all right eamon, we're counting on a light touch, i think, here because we are talking about the market and the correction territory a lot of people are hanging their hat on the a.i. super cycle the in terms of technology to bail us out it will be an interesting intersection >> reporter: what you see here is government just beginning to get its arms around a.i. and implications of it and trying to address safety and trying not to stifle innovation. tricky balance here with the technology that has so many

prognostications of how great it can be for the economy and tech and scary it can be. you know, the terminator scenario a lot to think about with this and government is just really getting started here this executive order is one of the first efforts to regulate a.i. we will see an a.i. safety summit in the uk this week as well they are thinking about it over there at the same time countries around the world are trying to get their arms around this thing, joe sdp >> yes, they are do you think greeting card writers are out of business? >> nobody buys greeting cards any more. >> yes, they do. >> what about television reporters? >> somebody wrote this actually not probably not some body >> we will be replaced by max headroom >> the new york times. it is coming to every industry >> you have to do a.i. plus max

headroom remember how he would freeze >> the glitch. >> yeah. maybe they fix that. then we are screwed. maybe. right now, let's get to the latest on the israel-hamas war israel defense forces expanded into the ground overnight. the idf said it eliminated terrorists and barricaded within buildings and terrorist tunnels. israel is starting the second phase of the war out of the public view. phone and internet service was blacked out most of the weekend. on saturday, elon musk said spacex would support communication links in gaza with aid organizations. the communications minister said israel would use all means at its disposal to fight that move because they say hamas would use the connections for terrorist activities another situation where elon musk is in this uncomfortable

position of making decisions like this as ukraine and russia. >> the world is in an uncomfortable position we did communications -- communications had been cutoff they appealed. you have to have the w.h.o. and humanitarian agencies need communications -- it's not -- if this goes months and months and months, i don't see how the pressure is unbearable difficult situation. >> on israel >> yeah. >> for what is happening on the ground ground >> pressure for a cease-fire is high coming up, a busy trading week ahead we get you ready for the jobs report and quarterly reports later, sam bankman-fried is continuing his testimony we will tell you more about that

later this morning when "squawk box" continues on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities experience expertise. execution. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises. as a fiduciary, i promise to be the financial steward that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com ♪ ♪ to helping people achieve their financial goals. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is.

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this week's "squawk planner," we have earnings it is almost november and they should get things done in

october. we will hear from mcdonald's at 7:00 a.m we have caterpillar tomorrow moong among others pfizer and amd on wednesday, kraft-heinz and yum brands and airbnb. on thursday, eli lilly and marriott and starbucks and apple. it is also fed week. the fmoc begins the two-day policy meeting tomorrow. the news conference follows on wednesday. it is jobs week. adp private payroll due on wednesday. jobless claims and third quarter productivity numbers are due on thursday with the october employment report due on friday. joining us now is sylvia jablonski, chief investment officer of defiance etf. sylvia, do you ever not think long term?

that is your point today take a step back and try to figure out why we're doing this in the first place it's to build wealth if you are going to build wealth, it would probably be better to go in with the nasdaq now which is better than it was three months ago >> absolutely. good morning, joe. i think it feels like the obvious strategy you want this on your life, especially dollar cost averages in your position if you are younger, and you accumulate wealth over time what we have seen is investors running for the hills. they have been parked on the sidelines and not invested at all or in the market and have seen the 10% correction or two thirds of the s&p names are below the 200-moving day average and see the selloff. investors get the panic with the

uncertainty in the middle east and uncertainty with the fed and debt issuance this week all of those things bring the investor out of the market they should really be buying now. would you rather buy nasdaq 10% off the july high now or then rally 10% at the end of the year >> what about the next of yields even on the short term with the inverted yield curve you could get paid well for two years. what about putting everything in a two-y year? >> i think that might be fine for some people. if you want absolute security and zero risk and a little bit older and don't want to be in equity markets at this point or looking to diversify the portfolio, it is reasonreasonab? who doesn't want 5%? you can get 5% cds now

longer term, you know, annual return of stock markets out perform yields 100% of the time. we are in the warped zone with the the vovolatility you want stock exposure in the portfolio. things to drive are technology and artificial intelligence and not necessarily the 4% to 5% steady eddie returns on treasury >> some people, and we have seen a lot of interest in the funds that have longer dated maturities with a notion and smart people said i'm ready to buy bonds. the long-term bonds is over. you could do some two-year bonds or ten-year bonds or longer and technology have all of your bases covered long bonds are attractive here will they rally? >> i do it think it makes sense.

right now, the returns are simply there again, it depends where you are in your career and if you are looking to retire. if you are close to retirement, i think it is hard to argue that picking up cash-related products or alternative income products makes sense. if you are out there and you have a decade or more to go or several decades to go, you want to be in stocks. that is where the return is going to be. >> you would be looking at beneficiaries of a.i you think this is a super cycle of a.i.? wheres does does that put you? >> i heard your comment of hanging your hat on that i'm one of them. if you look at 2030, the compounding growth rate of all things a.i. is essentially 30% or so. i like nvidia which has fallen off the high i realize the stock price is high it is 90% of the gpu market.

all of these fascinating technology like machine learning and computing are replacing the workers in factories that makes the case for something here all of the things going on in washington matters about the opinion of a.i. and things like this when it comes to actually improving productivity and factories and businesses and in the health care system and banks, these are tangible things to bring revenues in and cut costs for companies in the long term it will be a super cycle the and ch change the way we live, work and play >> you are a vidia person? not nvidia >> i'm saying it wrong i do >> i don't know. >> totally wrong >> okay. i like nvidia.

>> i like to mix it up it's monday morning. >> i know. believe me sylvia, thank you. >> thank you still to come this morning, pay transparency laws are requiring more companies to include salary ranges in job postings a surprising trend of the way companies are advertising. we have details on that next. right now as we head to break, we are looking at crypto prices bitcoin is down just a little bit. just at $34,500. you see gains in solana. ethereum is up 1% we will be right back.

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withelcome back. pay transparency laws in the last few years means employers are disclosing salary range. the advertised wages are not growing, but reversing course. we have sharon epperson with more on why this trend is happening. this is the opposite of what they thought it would actually end of creating. >> that is right, becky. pay transparency laws have picked up steam this year with new york, california and washington state among the states that now require companies to disclose pay range in the job postings. advertising the right wages tricky 1 zip re kcruiters say companies

reduced pay for roles over the past year. the chief economist says lowering advertised pay is a way for employers to reset expectations >> they recognize job seekers have been more confident and negotiating for pay increases. they are giving themselves room to negotiate >> many employers are finding it hard to answer questions why they may fall on the low end of the range and that leaves managers to focus on other aspects. >> they take a longer-term view and low balling pay offers, but adding more long-term benefits >> experts say it is important for employers to provide context to help managers explain the rational behind the pay structure and help employees understand what they need to do to earn higher pay becky. >> i think this is amazing this

is what is happening the law of unintended consequences the expectation from the lawmaker ws who put it in and by telling everybody how much you make, you will not underpay anybody. the employers looked at this and said we can't afford to pay everybody those rates. as a result, we will push the levels advertising down more and you feel special if you make your way beyond that >> to encourage people during the pandemic, a lot of changes were made in terms of bonuses and nerterms of increasing pay o get people in the door and they cannot sustain that. this is another reason why they are looking at what else can we show that will entice workers to come ziprecruiter is looking at the benefits package in addition to the pay range so people can see

that as an enticement. >> is working from home or flexibility part of the package? >> every company seems to focus on the total well being of the employee that is what you hear and that's the buzz it is what is the experience the employee getting if they are flexible and work from home part-time versus working in the office and what does that mean with the interaction with the manager? whereas before the pandemic, you talk to the manager in the hallways and talk about what you need and now it is transactional. it is a different way of working when you are not there in person to kind of advocate for yourself for higher pay >> transactional beneficial to the employee or employer >> that depends on how you look at it. >> sharon, thank you good to see you. coming up on the other side of the break, the fed kicking

off the two-day policy mooeeetig it starts tomorrow former vice chair roger ferguson will join us and bill cassidy will be with us and talk about the odds of the shutdown as we approach the november 17th deadline "squawk box" is coming back after this >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity.

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good morning welcome back, everybody. this isis "squawk box." dow futures are indicated up 150 points s&p futures up 25. the nasdaq indicated up over 100. the big issue is investors are focused on what the fed will do fed policy moeeting is this wee. investors are expecting the fed to hold steady on rates. we want insights in what is ahead and what will happen in the meeting. roger ferguson used to sit at the table. he is the former vice chairman

and cnbc contributor what will happen at that table this week? what is thekcon conversation ats point? >> let me start with the fact that the market will not have a move this week it will be a very active debate around two things. one is at this stage, do they need to go further there will be those that say the old models don't work anymore. we are winning the battle against inflation and the ten-year treasury is doing our work we can really think we're done there will be another set, which will win out, which is saying it is too early to declare victory and keep the door open for a december move. there will be debate over what to signal. at the end of the day, i expect the wisdom is keep the door open for another hike >> is that signal going to come

this week? will you hear jay powell signal december or it's going to be a little bit more ambiguous than that >> i think he will signal the door is still open and they will wait to see the data coming in it will be a number of people who say we have done a lot of work and the markets have done work he wants to keep the possibility of a december hike alive i think that's the signal. nothing more definitive than that the possibility of another hike has not been taken off the table. >> roger, can you overlay what is happening in the middle east on the conversation and what happens as it relates to being in the room with a jay powell and the rest of the governors and talking about the market doing things for you and what the market is doing for you or against you in this regard >> i think in terms of what the market is doing, they have seen

financial conditions have tightened quite a bit because the move on the ten-year yield i think many of them believe it has to do with supply and demand conditions with the treasury issuing quite a bit of debt to pay for deficits i think vis-a-vis from the middle east and what is done is again fairly ambiguous oil prices at one point spiked and have come down somewhat. there are concerns about the supply chain issues and things that run through israel. at this stage, those are going to observed and nothing exactly of how it impacted the u.s. economy. in fact, the u.s. economy has shown it can power ahead through many headwinds. >> are you surprised where the ten-year yield is at this point? >> i'm not totally surprised >> 4.875% for those listening at home >> right i'm not totally surprised

because by definition when the fed is keeping the short end of the yield curve high with the over nig overnight rate it controls, then investors get paid for negative carry. they get paid for less long term over short term. the ten-year rate had to move higher to accommodate the fact that the fed itself was higher for longer there are other factors of supply and demand which has been one of them and the fact that the u.s. economy has continued to show sdrtrength. investors expect a higher interest rate is called for by the market. >> roger ferguson, we appreciate your perspective on all this thank you. we will see what happens today and we will hear about it on wednesday. thank you. >> thank you coming up, we will take you live to beijing where president xi is kicking off a two-day

conference on reforms this that country. reminder, you can follow "squawk pod" on your favorite podcast p d st a te.apanliennyim we'll be right back.

welcome back take a look at u.s. equities on this rainy monday morning in new york not raining in the markets

dow up 140 nasdaq up 105 points s&p 500 is looking to open 25 points. former vice president mike pence is dropping his bid for the republican nomination. pence said this is not my time he did not endorse arr rival, b urged someone who can lead with civility mike pence makes a gracious exit former vp goes out at a politician who put his country first. could never, according to the journal, could never push back on the ire from the people that are mad that he didn't challenge the results of the election. the maga group, a lot of people

they would never endorse he is one that would never happen that is 40%? 35% or 40% >> the primary voters. >> plenty of people who have pointed out if you have ten people running, a very low plurality. romney and others have said we have to win in this field fast. >> that is nikki haley's hope. we had her on last week. that is her hope for sure to quickly get to the person. desantis and haley have hopes of saying i'm going to be donald trump or me. that is the way they think they can probably take all. >> the journal points out this is a move putting country first. it comes after the original move of what they called putting country first during the

election washington and beijing are working on a meeting with president biden and president xi next month at the apex summit in san francisco. xi is attending a conference in an effort to gain more control over the sector in china eunice yoon joins us now from beijing. good morning, eunice >> reporter: thanks, joe as you said, president xi and economic planners are meeting today. they got a very big reminder of some of the problems in the property sector when the real estate giant evergrande saw its shares price hit an all-time low. this is after a judge at the hong kong court which has been overseeing liquidation hearing postpone the hearing to december 4th. that gives the company a reprieve investors were focused on what the judge said the judge called the move the

last adjournment and the court is very likely to order a winding-up if no new restructuring is presented by the december date. evergrande's problems as well as the larger issues in the property sector are likely topic of discussion at the ongoing two-day, twice in a decade work conference, that focuses on financial reforms. a lot of people are hoping to get some clarity on what the government plans to do with financial risk to the property sector and the economy as a whole as well as how the new revised centralized and unified leadership and regulation is all going to work out. this is the back drop we have to the chinese foreign minuministes visit the past several days to d.c. and met with president biden and secretary of state antony blinken and various members of the business community on that trip

this is part of the ongoing discussions for president xi and president biden with the meet and greet at apec in november as a way to court more companies to invest guys >> we are all torn between pulling for china and kind of loathing china we need the country to do well globally it counts for such a big part of global growth, but fear and trepidation five or ten years from now >> reporter: absolutely. you are not the only one that is the same thing happening with the conversation on the chinese side on the one hand, we had the foreign minister go and and meet with biden the chinese press has been talking about the possibility of the xi and biden meeting there are mixed messages saying

five musts to be met one being a revision of the tariffs that the u.s. needs to not support what the chinese describe as taiwan independence. it is just something you can see with a lot of mixed messaging and the foreign minister said this path to san francisco is not on auto pilot. >> okay. a lot to think about eunice, thanks it's been a while. good to have you on. among the other stories we are watching pharmacy staff are planning to walk out this week in protest of what they call unsafe working conditions for walgreens organizers say they want companies to address a range of issues with under staffed teams and increasing work expectations imposed by management. it is unclear how many pwill

participate in the walkout. the bulk from walgreens and cvs and rite aid cvs is engaging staff to address concerns and they are not seeing any unusual activity of closures or pharmacist walkouts the last time you are at pharmacy every time i'm there, there are five or six people behind and working the entire time answering calls from the drive-thru and walkups and vac vaccinations the drive-thru, you can ask for supplies and they have to go get them and wring ring them up they are working the entire time one says they are closed for 25 minutes for a lunch break. they don't get to eat otherwise. it they are asking them to do more

and more sdp. >> it is a demographic issue you need a lot of things. >> demographic, but what they are asking them to do. cvs with the plans they made to say we are a clinic. you can walk into and we will do more and more. >> they are not staffing >> there are a lot of people, but they are doing a lot of things. >> same with any company staffing >> during covid, they he were ad to do far more. >> i don't think business model >> it all happened when the companies were trying to create clinics. it is a different job. let's talk about disney this morning. nelson peltz has more power in his corner in round two of the proxy battle, marvel executive ike perlmutter is offering support as peltz pushes for changes at disney including board seats

perlmutter has given a voting stake in the company which boosts the reported stake with perlmutter and now has four times as many voting shares as the first proxy campaign i'm not sure they would still win the campaign, but puts more pressure on the board and on bob iger when we come back, israel began what it is calling phase two of the war against hamas over the weekend we will talk to james stavridis. "squawk box" will be right back. . enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. now brewing peet's coffee. when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures... (gasp) you need weathertech. [hot dog splat.] laser measured floorliners front and rear.

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israel lauvlg launching

phase two of its war against hamas striking 450 targets over the weekend, with the u.s. now warning of heightened risk of spillover in the region, we want to bring i stavridis. admiral, let's kind of dig through what this next phase means. i heard an israeli minister speaking earlier today saying that they don't want to occupy gaza for the long-term that is not their plan, not their intention, but obviously that kind of brings the supposition that they are planning some sort of occupation is that your understanding of what the next phase is >> yeah, i think it's become clear, becky, what the general game plan is two weeks ago you could have postulated this would be a shock and awe kind of campaign, just massive troops pouring in there really trying to overrun it and subdue it instantly. that's not the plan. what i think we're going to see

here is more methodical. more measured. you're going to see precision-guided air strikes continue, gradual incursions around the north and the east of gaza, and then i think you're going to see them cut across to isolate gaza city and then slowly squeeze into it so this is looking like a more methodical take your time kind of campaign, and there's a one word answer as to why, and it's hostages so the israelis will do everything they can to move slowly, try and find the hostages and perhaps rescue them tough military mission this is going to take a while, becky. >> the longer this goes on, the more pushback there is on those who say you need to use caution with the civilian population that's here. i heard kamala harris last night on 60 minutes saying that the united states is not going to get involved in this, but our

presence of the u.s.s. gerald ford says otherwise. that's our largest carrier it's there with an entire strike group. what does that mean if this expands? >> it's not just the ford, by the way, the u.s.s. dwight eisenhower is going into the region there are 2,000 marines embarked on u.s.s. baton, which is almost the size of those big nuclear carriers there are a dozen ships and more with strike missiles, air defense systems. so this is a formidable naval force, and we put in additional air force strike squadrons into bases in the middle east, and we've got more troops on prepare to deploy orders so we are right to be concerned, and this morning we're hearing the u.s. government saying the chances of this widening

implication u.s. potentially involved, if iran comes in via hezbollah in the north, the potential for that is rising becky, two weeks ago i would have said 10% chance that this thing is going to widen. this morning i'm feeling more 20% chance i think the situation is growing more dangerous, not less >> what does a widening look like does that happen slowly? does that happen quickly, and are we talking about our troops skirmishing with hezbollah or are we talking about us is and iran >> the first thing to watch and as investors watch the north, watch hezbollah. watch what's happening on the northern border. thus far it's been skirmishing, some shots back and forth, not a lot of activity up there if iran decides to truly engage in this conflict, they will unleash hezbollah, which has north of 120,000 surface to surface missiles those come flying south.

at that point the widening, i think, would be the u.s. engaging on behalf of israel against hezbollah, iranian proxy and lebanon. then iran might respond. they've already launched strikes at some of our troops in the area you see that ladder of vertical escalation going up. concern again, 20% chance. that's uncomfortably high right now. that's why the administration has those forces there to conclude, becky, in order to send a signal to iran. we will engage if you. let's hope the iranians are listening. >> thank you >> you bet coming up on the other side of this, we're going to talk about mcdonald's set to report this morning we'll bring you those numbers and reaction on wall street straight ahead. later, what to expect when sam bankman-fried testifies on the tnwiess stand today. we'll bring you that story as

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good morning, a big week for the markets as we get ready for a two-day fed meeting and the october jobs report. the futures are higher ahead of that open. dow component mcdonald's

serving up quarterly results we will bring you the numbers when they hit. they're hitting. get ready. plus, the uaw expanding strikes against gm after strastr striking deals with stellantis and ford mark fields will join us with his reaction second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. we're trying to stay dry because it is raining outside. markets doing a little better than that right now. dow opening up 176 points higher the nasdaq looking to open about 103 points higher. the ten-year treasury and the two-year as well are ten-year is now at 4.888

moving up slightly the two-year at 5.048. becky quick. >> are we really not doing mcdonald's >> why don't we do mcdonald's while it's out looking at the numbers break it out. >> right now it's 319, 319 a share versus estimates of $3, as always the comp store global, same-store sales versus -- also u.s. are important the estimate was 7.8 for global. this is 8.8. so that's pretty good. in the united states it was 8 and change as well, i saw that number 6.6 -- >> 8.1%. >> 8.1%, which is also pretty goo good the stock's up 2.44%, revenue coming in at $6.69 billion

which was also above expectations i'm looking at this point for some guidance on we see- >> the ceo made comments just saying that the macroeconomic environment is unfolding in line with our expectations for the year i don't see guidance on it i'm reading through really quickly, but i don't see it in the release at this point. >> benefitted from strong, average check driven by strategic menu price increases. >> they didn't talk about traffic. >> menu price -- >> strategic menu price increases, and -- >> what does that mean you don't notice that the price has gone up? >> strategic means if you want it, it's going to cost more and for me it's just totally in elastic. >> they've been doing that for a while with the different salads, fancier chicken sandwiches trying to drive up the baseline. they always have the value menu that's there

i wondthe stock continues to clb at more than 2.6%. >> that's pretty good for mcdonald's a couple of years ago they did it fast and hot, fast and hot and clean. fast hot and clean, that doesn't seem -- of course you got to do it at how many locations, that's the thing. some are franchised, some are not franchised, but consistent quality and fast and that's what they excel at. and that's why it's such a valuable stock what's the market cap now? it must be one of the -- let me just see market cap 186 billion before today's move. sofi technology is reporting third quarter results. leslie picker joins us with those numbers. >> the market reacting positively to these as well. beat here on the top line for the third quarter, and management boosting guidance for full-year adjusted net revenue

and adjusted ebitda. the digital financial firm reporting 3 q adjusted net revenue of $531 million up 27% with two-thirds of that growth actually coming from non-lending segments sofi's technology and financial services units on the bottom line reporting a loss of $0.03 a share. a lowering of non-cash goodwill, largely from non-cash valuation changes for two acquisitions made in 2021, including that impact sofi report add loss of $0.29. sofi offers checking and savings accounts, student loans, personal loans and home loans among other products ceo anthony noto told me in a phone interview that sofi has been more conservative on what they're willing to underwrite. as such it's been reducing the credits they underwrite as they've seen economic indicators change total deposits increased by 23% to 15.7 billion at quarter end, almost all of that from direct depositors by relying more on depositors than wholesale

funding. sofi has been able to more than double its net income interest from the prior year. its margin for this business, so-called net interest margin was 5.99%. a record for the company you can see there sofi shares up more than 7% right now after having gained 49% year-to-date >> leslie, thank you very much that's a big jump for that stock too. a couple of earnings reports just in the last couple of minutes. both the stocks showing the impact >> so we've looked at mcdonald's we've got sofi off the list. now we're going to get over to dom chu, who's got a longer list of some of the other morning premarket movers >> just by one i've got three of them for you here outside of earnings, we're getting a slate of analyst actions getting some attention so far this morning. we'll start with shares of chevron up around 1 to 1.5%. 15 to 20,000 shares of premarket trading volume, getting some help from bank of america, which is upgrading that stock.

the integrated oil and gas giant to a buy rating. it was neutral before. they also raised the target price to 200 bucks it was 190 they think the stock selloff since announcing the takeover of hess has been over done giving better growth prospects. payment capacity post deal and better portfolio depth of assets those shares up about 1% you've got shares of cisco moving between gains and losses premarket just around 10,000 or so shares of volume. analysts over at raymond james have downgraded the computer networking equipment giant to a market perform from outperform, but also citing amongst other things slowing sales trends and key end markets, even though valuations are still below market overall, but cisco systems down about one quarter of 1%. we'll cap things off with a check on the consumer. a couple of downgrades at newell brands this morning. jpmorgan has downgraded the parent company of graco, child car seats, coleman camping gear a truist has downgrade it had to a

similarly kind of positioned hold rating. jpmorgan says recovery is taking longer than expected truist says newell is a year away from organic growth newell has lost 60% of its value since its 52-week high in february down about 1% in premarket andrew, i'll send things back over to you. >> really? >> really, dom >> i was told to send it back to andrew i was fully prepared to engage you about three -- >> they are not invincible number one, they are not -- the 49ers are not invincible number two that cast joe burrow, that was it, that was one of the greatest performances i've seen. did you see when the bengals finally had a penalty, one penalty in the game at the very end of the game. that was like the most efficient just surgical tearing apart of the 49ers i've ever seen in my

life >> yes and you are not invincible >> no, no, no, here's what i will say you're absolutely right, and to add insult to injury, my starting quarterback in fantasy football is joe burrow, who i benched in favor of brock purdy thinking that joe burrow still had some things to work through. not only did i have to stomach the loss of the game yesterday to the bengals, great game by the way. i also am going to lose my fantasy matchup this week because i didn't start joe burrow, and i also, by the way, kept another player off the -- >> they're telling us we have to go >> i had deandre hopkins on the bench too. >> your guy was a different guy yesterday. he was great, and i had him on the under for yardage pass like 250 and he had 290 or something. when his buddies christian who had, what, 17 straight games he scored a touchdown >> deebo samuel comes back after

the bye and hopefully things get sorted out i'm still a loyal fan, joe >> okay. i'm just saying it's not like a shoe-in that it's the 49ers winning it all and kansas city, what the hell was that >> let's not even talk about the denver game, he had the flu. mahomes did. >> russell wilson. >> i'll send it back to you guys i know the producers are going to kill me. wharton professor jeremy si siegel joins us. and the latest on the government's antitrust trial against google we're going to speak to aneesh chopra "squawk box" coming right back >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation.

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new this morning, morgan stanley's mike wilson saying an end of the year rally for the markets is unlikely. wilson says that narrowing breadth, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the

consensus which sees a rally into year end. wilson has been bearish and says fourth quarter and 2024 profit expectations are too high, even in an economy that is performing well. >> that doesn't in any way describe the last year of mike wilson's comments. that doesn't in any way describe it you finally -- >> he went bullish after being bearish. >> at the time we said, oh, great, you know, after being wrong for that long. but we did mention he was very tepid in his bullishness and he raised his price target, which had been 3,200 or something like that but he raised it to below where the s&p was so now that's looking -- i mean he was a very reluctant convert to being less bear ish, which turned out maybe to be right. he was getting less bearish right at the top, and he didn't get overwhelmingly bullish at the top, but the absence of him on this show, and when's the last time we've seen him on any show >>. >> i don't know that he's talking as much. >> there's a reason he hasn't been on lately

we don't expect you to be right all the time 51% is -- >> because he's going against the consensus i'd love to hear from him and see what he thinks. >> even if you're right 51% of the time, we give you kudos. we're going to have siegel on later. >> what is it .250 batting average you need to be absolute l ly great >> if you can win a battle title, .300. big week for the markets you were bearish for a while, jeremy jeremy siegel. let's bring in mr. wharton, jeremy siegel, professor emeritus, better say that, at university of pennsylvania's wharton school of business we're going to preview the week. i you were bearish for a little while, but in your lifetime if it was 800 in 1982, and we're

now -- you know, where we are in the 30,000 plus, it'd pay to be bullish most of the time, i think, jeremy. >> oh, it pays to be bullish long-term all the time >> right >> in the stock market big surprise, i'm not in favor of mike wilson's prediction here. >> you think we will rally i saw that. >> yeah. >> in a way i say thank goodness october is nearly over actually, in the last 25 years, i looked up the data, november is the second best month of the year, just slightly behind april, which is the first best mont month, so i do think we're going to have a year-end rally over here coming up i agree with roger ferguson, i heard him earlier on your show i mean, the fed is not going to do anything on wednesday, and they're going to leave the door open they're just going to say the evolving data. we still have six more weeks

until the next meeting we don't know, you know, exactly what all the fomc members are going to be thinking, but it's basically going to leave the door open. i don't know if we're going to get all that much extra information as far as that's concerned. but i was looking at the -- you know, we're 10% off the low. we just entered correction territory for the s&p. we did that a few days earlier for nasdaq we're 15% off of that october low of last year, and i went back 50 years and if that october low holds, which i very strongly believe that it will, returns in the market over the next one, two, five, ten years are very, very good. in other words, if you can invest 15% off of a bear market low, which is what we had a year ago, you're subsequent returns

have exceeded the market by quite a margin. >> yeah, i've seen people that have gotten 15% off the low and then, you know, i can remember the actual individual themselves, and at the time i said, you know what? it's -- you just called in a multiyear low, and you're getting bearish 15% off the low. that's like stupid, right? and as it turned out, it did go much, much further, so you got to let your profits run. and 15% isn't that much off a low, jeremy. >> right more persuasive than technicals or calendars we're 16 1/2 times next year's earnings, and he talks about fading earnings expectations actually, 2024 is holding in better than historically as time goes on, usually there's a phase, and you know, that 16 1/2 includes the magnificent 7 you get out of that and you're really at about 14 times

earnings, 13 you get to the mid and small cap, you're 11 and 12. i mean, these are historical lows you know, like we saw back in the 80s when the ten-year was 12 and 14%. i think we're pretty well near the top on ten-year, maybe 5 1/4. we're not getting into those levels that's the only time that we really saw anything that was like single-digit p/e ratios exclude that period of time in your 17, 18, 19, 20. so i think valuation is pers persuasive i actually think growth zbg to be better next year. the higher real interest rates that we've seen is actually more optimism about growth in 2024, and that's going to pressure, you know, the stock market because they have to discount those higher earnings. i think those higher earnings are going to come through.

>> that's another thing, jeremy. you would think there will be -- you know, debt will come due for companies and people that thought rates were never going to go up, and there would be some indigestion, but we're just getting back to what a normal rate of return is. i mean, businesses and people have done fine multiyear periods with interest rates where they are right now. this should not be choking off business expansion or business formation or anything at 5%. >> right i mean, 2.5% is pretty much the average of what those ten-year tips, bonds have been actually when they were floated in '97. they went up to about 4.5 in 2000, and the stock market hit 30 price to earnings ratio, double the level today, which i thought was crazy, and that's when i really for the first time turned very bearish there in 2000, but we're a world of difference right now with p/e ratios half that number and real

yields substantially below. >> and the s&p, we haven't had an all-time high in a while, and we've been consol idating and turning around, you think that happens next year? >> i definitely think that happens next year. >> all right, then you can buy now. thank you, professor siegle. >> thank you very much, joe. still to come, the antitrust case against google, another key witness will testify today we'll be speaking to former u.s. chief technology officer aneesh ch chopra, that's next. "squawk box" will be right back.

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a key witness expected to testify today against google, eamon javers joins us with more on that. good morning, eamon. >> good morning, andrew. this could be the most dramatic moment in the most important antitrust case so far this century as alphabet's ceo gets a chance to go face-to-face with his accusers at the u.s. department of justice in federal court here in washington later on today now, pichai is going to make the case that google's search engine dominance is the result of hard work and a better product offering the government's going to argue that the billions of dollars every year google pays to device

makers like apple and wireless carriers like at&t to be a default setting amount to an anticompetitive practice that crowds out competitors on friday for the first time, we learned the total amount that google pays, and it's a big number, $26.3 billion paid in just the year 2021 new numbers shown in court also underscore just how wildly profitable this business is. according to a slide show on friday, google's search business in 2021 revenue was more than $146 billion, while traffic acquisition costs were more than $26 billion. now, remember, this is not a trial in front of a jury, so pichai won't have to worry about how a panel of citizens is going to react to these huge dollar figures. he will be facing a judge who is deeply steeped in the details of this case and will no doubt be looking for google's best argument as to why those payments are not improper. back over to you guys. >> eamon, thank you for that report we're going to continue that conversation with aneesh chopra,

the former chief technology officer at the white house, currently president of care journey. so curious how you think both the case is going but effectively, when you look at what pichai may have to talk about today, it's not so much -- or it's not just that they agreed to these large payments to apple, but that part of the payments from what i can tell now seem to be about telling apple, not only it'd be the default, but you're effectively going to stop working on creating, you know, better search capabilities on your own. and how much do you think that piece of it is the distinction here >> yeah, these trials are designed to discover information that looks at behaviors that result in lower competition, and that does not look good from the relationship so the dollar itself is a sizable, makes a lot of news, but i think the more important question is what behaviors

resulted from that payment, and in my personal view, we're kind of guiding our way through to some let's call it resolution or some kind of a compromise settlement whereby the behaviors will largely be constrained. right now you're operating in a world where you don't have guardrails what's the limit courts are there to set the limits, and then we work within those new limits, and so i would imagine there will be another round of opportunity to see a search alternative appear, and it couldn't have come at a better time with the advent of ai too far new type of search experience appear as a potential default in our daily lives >> but how do you think that's going to work, meaning there's two issues here. there's the issue of the technology itself and then there's the -- are we talking just about the apple phone, are we talking about other phones? are we talking about apple saying that apple is not going to accept money for having a default? i can't imagine they're not going to want to they can put it up for bid, as you know, which they've done, and google has effectively won

that bid you could argue they have more scale when it comes to capital in that regard or at least the willingness to do it, plus the technology happens to be better, and so what do you do about -- those are market forces. there is a market force element to all of this >> yeah, market forces work when you have clear rules, which is that you can pay a fair market value for a service. if you over pay in this case, perhaps way above what a competitor may offer, there may be a debate that extraneous payment is not tied to true market forces rather than these other behaviors. >> microsoft's got deep pockets. they could pay up for bing if they wanted to. >> that's right. the question is what are the rules under which that option may take place and how do you make sure there's a fair and appropriate bidding process within those new guardrails. so this an area -- >> let me ask one separate related question, i apologize for interrupting are you of the view that the default position on an apple phone, for example, is supposed

to simply go to the highest bidder, or is it a combination of the highest bidder and the better technology? so let's say microsoft raised its hand and says i'm willing to pay, i don't know, $30 billion a year for this, but apple goes you know what? this technology -- our customers are not going to be happy with this, we'll even take the lower bid because we think it's better >> yeah, look, this is apple's decision, so that's not -- we haven't made a public policy around what we want private companies default home page to look like, so it is clearly the case that apple will probably want to have the best consumer experience and today that seems to align with google's the default choice for everyone. we all wake up in the morning and use it as satya nadella said during the trial. >> if we agree that's the case, what are we even talking about here >> we're talking about making sure the economic rules of the road promote fair and open competition. so this is not a black and white case we're not in this conversation

because, oh, obviously this is wrong and we got to stop it. no, no, there's a lot of nuance. another angle to the nuance is these subsidies, for lack of a better term, presumably might go to make phones cheaper and therefore add more accessibility, and therefore add more market exposure to people who otherwise couldn't afford fair market value price of phone. there's a lot of factors that are going to go into the judges, you know, consideration. but it seems to me we're heading towards what are more clear guardrails there will be some enforcement settlement that says, okay, we're going to be able to compete. google may likely still win said competition, but maybe for less dollars, and there may be an opportunity for alternatives and easier switching costs to switch from the home page -- >> you're regulates how apple makes a decision or are you regulating what google's allowed to bid >> i think in this case there may be certain -- that's a great question i'll let the lawyers get into the details to who will own what

responsibility this is about google's behavior, so it will largely be about how google can engage in the market. so my presumption would be to some degree it would be a little bit more disclosure about how and in what manner google behaves in the market where there's deemed to be some sort of competitive risk. >> it sounds like you're trying to have the government decide how apple is allowed to option its own space. it does sound -- like the argument you made convinced me it's not a good idea the government wants to be the one who decides all of this. why do you have to set the rules for what that bring about true competition for the value of the good being auctioned >> market forces to do that. >> yeah, well, the market is doing that without guardrails, so there may be a component. this is, again, the technical detail the judge will weigh in is whether there's an excessive payment tied to anticompetitive behavior that's the narrow question is it 26 billion versus 22, that's not a level of detail we're going to learn, but it's going to be about that judgment.

that's where this conversation is likely heading, and that is what will be the reasonable path forward to make sure more choice, presumably easier to switch search engines, although it's relatively easy now there may be a little perspective on that, and also an engagement around how organizations like google are supposed to engage in the market from the position that they hold >> we will see we will see, anearesh, thank you the uaw reaching a tentative deal with stellantis in finalizing its new contract with ford gm is another story. we'll bring you the details and talk about what it means for the automakers. the latest out of washington with senator bill cassidy. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

two down one to go. the uaw reaching a tentative deal with stellantis following its agreement with ford, but the union has expanded its strike against gm joining us right now is former ford ceo and cnbc contributor, mark fields. let's talk a little bit about this the deal that has -- the tentative deal, what we know about it at this point, what we know about the two deals, are these deals that are good for both parties, or is it going to be something that really puts some extreme pressure on the companies that are going ahead and making the deals >> that's a great question, becky. i mean, for the rank and file, it certainly is a very rich

contract, and essentially what it does look back over the last 10 to 12 years, it allows the workers on the line to actually recoup, you know, all the things that have happened in terms of inflation and the other economics that have gone on over the last number of years so it's a very rich contract from their standpoint. from the automakers' standpoint, i mean, the good news for ford and for stellantis, it gives them certainty right now in terms of what is the increase in costs in their vehicles, and they're going to have to look at this very hard, and they're going to have to look at other efficiencies to say, listen, in ford's case, i think they mentioned that it would be between $80,900 per vehicle added cost because of the labor. they're going to have to look at a lot of efficiencies. they're going to have to look at automation in the plants is now going to look a lot more compelling it is going to influence their future investment decisions and hiring decisions, and from the

uaw's standpoint t, the question mark for them, ultimately, the measuring stick of whether this contract is successful is do they have more members at the end of the contract, and that's going to be, you know, an important yardstick. for the union it's all about membership >> automation looks better to the companies. do they have the freedom to put in automation, or is that something that the contract prevents them from doing >> well, as i've read, the contracts that was negotiated with ford, it does give them that possibility i mean, ford has to make, as with stellantis, they're going to make product commitments. the union now has the right to strike if the plant gets closure. that's the first time they've achieved that, but i think within the plant itself, it allows the companies the flexibility to employ more auto automation, and for future products, additional products that the automakers decide to add to their lineups, you know,

of course, you know, it's going to influence those decisions whether those products are going to be produced in the u.s. or were they produced somewhere else in north america like mexico they have the flexibility to do that >> so this is a deal you would take if you were still running ford, you'd say good deal, i'll go ahead with it >> well, certainly the deal was richer, i think, than the executives both ford and stellantis expected. it is richer listen, at the end of the day you had a confluence of a number of factors here, which really handcuffed the automakers. you had obviously a period of high inflation you've had a period of union resurgence, if you will, in terms of support from the american skpublic and some of te recent deals that have been done in other industries. and just as importantly, you have the automakers coming off literally a record level of profitability over the last two

or three years either, you know, due to some of the supply chain issues, et cetera. so i think the automakers knew they were going to pay up in this contract, but it was richer than expected. >> the gm deal, what's the sticking point there do you have any idea >> well, you know, as you saw, becky, and you mentioned, obviously by then -- by the uaw striking another plant with gm, there clearly was a stalemate that was reached, and, you know, the union fell for them to kind of get them, gm over the goal line, so to speak, they had to do this action i don't have any inside information, but i would suspect that it has something to do with some of the non-wage demands that may have, you know, related to either product commitments or the right to strike or, you know, the organizing of some of their ev plantplants the economics, they're just going to have to take what ford has set and stellantis has now

followed i had a feeling it's in some of these non-wage demands. >> i'm driving a ford car right now. i've been thinking about getting a new one. am i wrong to worry that cars that have been made in the last month or so may not be up to snuff in some way in any of the big three, if you have an angry work force, if you have an unmotivated work force where part of them are on strike does that lead to any concerns about the product that's produced >> first off, becky, i'm really glad you have a ford secondly, when it comes to, you know, buying a vehicle right now, listen, all the automakers have very good quality systems in their plants, but i also think, listen, the union workers in the plants, you know, these are hard jobs, right it's hard work, and i think the members they take a lot of pride in their work. so i think the days of, you know, 30, 40 years ago workingeworkiers trying to sabotage vehicles

customers are going to own i don't think that's happening in the plant floor there's a lot of pride there that these workers take. >> even when they're angry and they feel like they've gotten st stiffed by the companies, and some of their brethren are out on the strike line. >> they're a strike right now to get better economics what they've seen coming through, these are very rich contracts. i think on the plant floor, all the workers want to do a good job and not end up, you know, causing problems for customers. >> hey, mark, thank you very much >> thanks, becky. >> "squawk box" will be right back

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find your new favorite bra today at knix.com welcome back, ftx founder sam bankman-fried back on the stand today. he's accused of siphoning $8 billion of customer funds from his crypto exchange, ifftx and has pleaded not guilty to all charges. what's going on? >> good to see you sam bankman-fried's defense team will kick things off with more direct questioning this morning.

then we're likely going to get the government cross examination this afternoon so far his lawyers have tried to portray this image of a startup that grew too quickly while arguing that the founder was acting in good faith and didn't have criminal intent that is key. he testified about mistakes over at ft, and acknowledging that, quote, a lot of people got hurt in the collapse of the crypto exchange bankman-fried saying his biggest mistake was not controlling risk with no cfo and no risk management team. ftx claims he didn't commit fraud or have criminal intent. he's tried to shift the blame to other executives saying he was too busy to keep tabs objn the hedge fund he owned 90% of he did not have the time or energy for a relationship with caroline either, his former ceo of his hend fund she's already testified against him. s he saw no reason why he couldn't use the fund from his hedge fund

to pay for celebrity endorsements, those funds actually came from ftx customers. >> so convoluted i didn't have time to manage risk in the hedge fund on any of these things. >> they tried to paint this picture of how busy he was >> too busy meeting all these celebrities and other people. >> and going to dinner with katy perry. they talked about some of the commitments he had going to sports games and how he was this figure head running the company and tried to delegate two other executives me inner circle have already testified and said the opposite that he was very much involved, very much knew about this. >> what was the sense in the room meaning were people, you know, skeptical and saying this is crazy? were they saying, oh, this is very believable? >> was there snickering? >> there were a couple of moments where he kind of got a laugh out of the crowd. >> a good way or a bad way >> in almost like an endearing way. his attorney said at one point, did you have a risk team oh, we sure should have and people kind of laughed it's hard to get a sense of what the jury is thinking

they're kind of looking at him, taking it all in i mean, the sense from kind of the crowd in there is quite different i'm sure than what you're hearing from the jury but this is kind of the friendly questioning that we're getting now. it's the defense team going up there. he seems really calm he seems comfortable he's very prepared and sort of knows what's coming. he's trying to paint this picture of someone who's naive. >> what's your expectation in terms of how long the cross examination goes for i can imagine the kind of questioning he will get. we saw a little preview of that and actually how frankly badly he was doing under that kind of questioning. >> yeah, so it could -- i think it's going to go multiple days they are going to finish up the direct questioning today e probably around lunch. the government side said that we're going to take a couple of days here. he's also the last witness >> this is it. there's nobody else after this. >> this is the finale. this is really their last chance. >> was there anybody else called by the defense >> they actually got a couple of witnesses struck they tried to have some experts come in that the judge said no. >> nobody else that's --

>> no one from ftx he had a couple forensic account tenants come up and say here's where the money may have gone and paint a picture of what was actually going on there. the prosecution went up and made the point of no one at ftx used this it didn't seem like the strongest witness and sam bankman-fried is really sort of their last effort here. >> kate rooney keeping tabs on the whole trial. >> ftx is forever taken. >> can't use it as an acracrony. i know you were dying to use it. >> now they're done, ars, that's already -- >> the exchange, they're trying to revamp the exchange. >> ars >> out of bankruptcy >> thanks, guys. when we come back, senator bill cassidy will join us. and coming up in the next hour, reaction to quarterly results from mcdonald's. the fast food giant reporting a short time ago, the stock's now up better than 3%. >> love mcdonald's. >> we'll be right back >> love it

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a bipartisan delegation of senators has returned from china where they met with president xi the trip was aimed at cracking down on fentanyl production, easing tensions between the two countries. and joining us now is a republican senator of louisiana, bill caddie. you are in quite -- bill

cassidy. you got speaker of the house, are all you guys in leadership, is that destined for you >> i don't know if it is destined for me, but i think mike johnson is a good guy and steve scalise and he will work well together for the country. >> i don't know about the saints >> hey, saints did pretty well yesterday. they racked up more points than they had all season. >> senator, you met with -- netanyahu in israel as well. let's start with china you met with xi. do you remember when w said he met with putin and he looked into his soul or something, what was your impression of president xi is this a man that we can trust and work with? i mean, the balance of the world is sort of -- could be -- hinge on our relationship with this man. >> my impression of xi is not

just when i met with him but what i've read and what i discussed with other people in china and south korea. he is overwhelmingly concerned about the position of the chinese communist party within chinese society. he is willing to sacrifice business certainty in order to maintain the control now, when you speak to business guys in south korea, they say when you go to china, you are not competing against another company, you are competing against the ccp. and whoever they decide to favor, that is who is going to win. now, obviously xi has set that up there is an uncertainty that is just -- it permeates we had a conversation with someone about jack ma and one of my colleagues point out anybody who thinks that jack ma was kind of jettisoned for any other reason than he took on the regime was one of the persons in the solar system that believes that so point being, that they are willing to sacrifice innovative

ceos, business certainty, the willingness of other companies to invest in china in order to maintain that security and i think that there is nothing in my personal meeting with mr. xi that contradicted that >> well, he does that to chinese companies. i mean, no telling, he has no love for probably u.s. companies. and so to that end, anything is possible i don't know whether that is a person that you can do business with then. >> he wants foreign direct investment and their economy is slowing down both because of decreased internal consumption and also decreased investment but there is an uncertainty there. some of our companies which have committed hundreds of millions of dollars are now finding that they are semi sanctioned and have no clue why that is just a chilling effect so again, american businessmen are circumspect, but it is clear, they don't know the rules of the game and they are not

sure how to know the rules of the game yet foreign wants that foreign investment frankly i think that is one of the reasons why we got such a high level meeting just one of a series of high level meetings but until they give business certainty, i'm not sure that they get the fdi they want >> let me pivot to the middle east as it relates to china and taiwan, which is to say that you have president biden trying to connect dollars to israel to dollars to ukraine all of which connects back maybe one day to dollars to taiwan how do you think about all of those things as one or do you think they should be considered independently? >> well, one, whatever the legislative strategy that helps you get through. the house -- you were talking about mike johnson the house is obviously the one that has had the most problems, republicans in the house, with aid for ukraine. and i think there is a concern of lacks much accountability and

also a concern is it open-ended. so the case has to be made that there is accountability for the money spentmuch accountability d also a concern is it open-ended. so the case has to be made that there is accountability for the money spent much accountabilityn also a concern is it open-ended. so the case has to be made that there is accountability for the money spent and that it won't be forever. it may to be a long time, but what is the rationale for that long time. that strategy, andrew, of whether or not it should all be packaged or separated, i've heard different things in my conference as to the wisdom of each approach. i'm not sure where it lands. >> senator, talking about the middle east, i just keep coming back to iran and i don't know if -- you were around for -- and it may have been a thorn in our side and in the world's side for decades multidecades this time i think that it might be different a little bit. i don't know if we have the tolerance to keep putting up with all the trouble making. if you go to the source, that is what people say. we'll have to deal with the source of all this at some point. that is dangerous.

what do you think, how are we going to do it >> i'm not sure how you deal with the source unless you topple the ayatollah and the revolutionary guard. iranian people are good people they want freedom. they want something different. it is that acleadership that is directing them in a certain direction. i think one of the beauties of the abraham accords, again to unite the sunni nations with israel as united front against iran, which is kind of, you know, pursuing a shia crescent, if you will, from the gulf to the mediterranean. hamas is a client state of iran. so i think sunni nations should be concerned about that. but i don't want to commit u.s. ground forces to tie ehran.

it takes said did pressure point in order to not like in a hot war confront iran. eventually it will happen. we have more resources today, but it will be a while >> they got a lot more resources in the last couple years and sanctions aren't effective now. trying to do the nuclear -- i mean, i don't know whether we caused what is going on, but they certainly are in a lot better position than they were a couple years ago we need to figure that out somehow. >> i agree with that >> senator cassidy, up 38 points helps to end on something in a positive point world spinning out of control it seems like, but hopefully not. and we'll talk about the charts with tikae stockton and where the market is going next

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good morning stock futures pointing to big gains tone solid third quarter results from mcdonald's helping the numbers today is the beginning of another big week earnings. also on tap, a highly

anticipated fed decision we'll talk about the factors that central banks are weighing. and sam bankman-fried preparing to at that time witness stand again. we'll talk about what to expect on day two now of the ftx founder's testimony as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box. live from nasdaq market site in times square, futures were solid all morning and then mcdonald's reporting and still a dow component, right up like $8 i'm surprised the dow is not up even more. >> good point. >> because you add that in and it is kind of right where it was. but it is solid >> up 150 when we started the

show >> and then we'll talk about mcdonald's at one point. i couldn't figure out why mcdonald's was sort of succumbing to the overall market we had seen. seems like a little bit in-gee has tick and it doesn't seem like -- i mean, if it was going to be a low end trade, mcdonald's is pretty cheap >> they tend to benefit from people trading down. >> what happened from august to -- big move today really big move today. but you can see from when the market started wavering a little in august with tech stocks and everything else, mcdonald's went along for the ride >> and i want to put that up against the dow or the s&poff that time. >> might have outperformed a little >> no, it has underperformed >> treasury yields, big week for all things fed related fmoc meeting and jobs friday

which seems like it is every month almost but it just happened remember that last one >> time flies when you are having fun let's get you caught up on some of the other stories investors will be caulking about. united autoworkers union and stellantis agreeing to a tentative workers deal it still needs to be ratified. it is patterned off the deal with ford. gm is now one of the only one not to have an agreement in place. the uaw ratcheted pressure up on gm announcing a new strike at a plant in tennessee and it now puts more than half of gm's workers on strike. just over 50%. early this morning the white house unveiling an executive order on artificial intelligence requiring new safety in intelligence and research impact on the labor market. this is limited to the executive

house, but likely to be td most significant ai rules for some time and some pharmacy staff from walgreens and other drug store chains are planning to walk out this week this protest of what they are calling unsafe working conditions organizers say the bulk will come from walgreens, cvs and rite aid a spokesperson for cvs says they are engaging with staff to address concerns and not seeing any unusual activity regarding unplanned pharmacy closures or pharmacist walkouts. >> that pretty much leaves -- >> your hometown pharmacy. apothecary >> yeah. topping the economic calendar this week, fed's latest interest rate decision and labor department jobs report really hot last time steve liesman is joining us on that and other data new from this morning no waiting we get a repeat on friday, right? i guess there is >> not the forecast.

but it is an important meeting this week maybe for what the fed won't do that is hike rates that would mark the first time since -- 9 first two meeting hold or consecutive two meeting hold since early 2022 with the fed banking on a forecast for economic slowdown that will bring down inflation remember, we've had strong growth numbers and still elevated inflation, but keeping the fed on hold is the slower growth and lower inflation brought on in part by monetary policy lags from 500 basis points of rate increases high bond yields also a big factor here and reduced -- outlook for reduced hiring and wage gain made the national association for business economic reports in the industry survey that net of just 27% of respondents are raising prices, that is down from 45 in the prior survey and lowest level since january 2021 noti though outlook is still high for the first time in three

years, more respondents report falling employment than rising xw goldman sachs has a report that sees inflation falling next year by a full percentage point all of this has the market convinced the fed ain't going anywhere anytime soon. probability is november zero, december 22% for a rate hike and 29% for january. rate cuts seen as more likely than not by july 2024. and all this presumes the data cooperates market, ichlts sm, adp, end up with an october jobs report that as i was answering to joe, it is expected to be weaker than september, but still strong at 175,000. 3.8% unemployment rate but hold on, joe, because the next thing we got coming up here is a 3:00 p.m. borrowing needs announcement from the treasury and 8:30 on wednesday, we get the refunding announcement so it may be that janet yellen is driving this bus, not jay

powell >> how long has it been? i can't remember you saying those words in a long time we do have the borrowing needs coming up. that has been happening all along, hasn't it now it is important. >> now, maybe no surprises expected maybe the market has already adjusted to the higher borrowing needs so no additional surprises. there is some tweaking that can go on there. there are big questions about future quarters. treasury has tended to be right about its borrowing needs. and remember, it isreplacing $60 billion of runoff from the fed. so i will say that the fed may be in the number two spot this week compared to the treasury and its borrowing needs and number one spot in terms of what may or may not move this market. >> so no way we get a plus 300 print on friday. zero, not possible zero percent chance.

>> becky, how would you answer that question? i don't know i mean, yes, it could happen we've been surprised to the up side time and again. but finally we think that we're going to be coming down. >> you said 175. i'm counting on 175 or less. >> that is the consensus, joe. >> most likely >> but time and again, they have had the growth numbers wrong nobody thought we would do 4.9 in the third quarter and now the expectation is that it comes down but it doesn't go below 1% or still i'm seeing forecasts of 1.5 a% -- 1.5% to 2.5% >> do you know adp, tell us, do you know >> no, i don't know it if i had it, i couldn't tell you. >> well, that will be important this week. >> tell us what you know >> do you know anything? >> no. no, i know there is a lot of fish in new york harbor right

now and a lot of guys on boats going out. >> it is because of the rain why do fish love the rain? makes no sense we got to go >> it was a beautiful day on saturday and there were 1,000 boats out in the bay when i was out with my friend sweeney it was a lot of fun. >> thanks, steve see you later. for more insights on the economy and fed policy meeting, he with want to bring in seth carpenter from morgan stanley. riddle me this, just got the 4.9% gdp number. things are going gang busters. and yet we are concerned got a great jobs market, great numbers that are coming in, why does it not feel like that, why does it feel like everybody is waiting for things to turn over? >> i think there are a lot of cross currents and the fact that the fed has raised interest rates by over five percentage points i think is a big part of people's discomfort. sort of china sorting out what are the laggings, how long does

the take for the increases to bite and i will also say for the gdp report, no two ways about it, a very strong report however 1.3 percentage points came in inventory builds not the sort of thing that you expect to continue for a while there is some evidence that some of the services spending was probably a little bit of a oneoff as people sort of still doing a bit of that revenge spending on new experiences. and so we fully think that things will slow down in the 40s quarter. that said, we might be more optimistic than most from the beginning of this rate hiking cycle, we've said the u.s. is not going into recession so when everybody walling having t -- everybody was having the debate hard or soft landing, we never said any slowing and probably not crash >> is the treasury the main show this week versus the fed >> i wouldn't say the main show, but i think that they are big part of the show i remember when i was at treasury, president biden had

made me to be assistant secretary for financial markets and doing the press conferences on the quarterly refunding and it was always sort of third tier news. that is not the indication anymore. selloff in the treasury market is huge and i think that people will be asking what is janet yellen, josh rossen, the folks at treasury going to date of birth do w-- how much will theye in refunding of the debt i think the need to sort of wait the issuance of the longer end goes down. >> in terms of what we should be looking for from the fed, i take it you are in agreement you don't think that they will raise rates. >> right >> so what will you be listening for? >> got to hear what they are looking at clearly inflation has come down a lot faster than where their own forecasts have been. in their forecasts at the june f mc

fmoc and also september, they had 3.7 and 3.9. and no way that we'll get those sorts of outturns with the data. so how they are balancing that lower tan expected inflation against an unquestionably stronger real side of the economy, i think that is really where the rubber meets the road. >> you sound sanguine, are you >> well, i spent a lot of time in washington so i worry about everything but we have been reasonably confident that the u.s. economy would not be going into recession this year when a lot of people were saying oh, my gosh, the fed has never raised rates this much without a recession. still a way to go, but feeling pretty good next couple quarters >> i was looking at rates. even if they don't do anything else to raise it, you have credit cardsnorth of 20%, mortgages 8% you've xwots auto loans north of 7% and you've got student loans on the federal level at 5.5%.

i mean, that sucks up a lot of the spending power >> i agree and that is exactly what we're looking for is the substantial slowdown we don't think that the strength that we saw in the third quarter can continue looking for a bit of a payback in the fourth quarter, continued slowing into the first quarter and so then a really grudging, not zero, not negative growth in 2024, but really grudging barely above zero kind of thing so slowing down a lot. got to be well below the 4% that we saw >> the only thing that would throw off that expectation i think that you would probably say would be if there is a problem in the financial sector. and something breaks there then all bets are off and is that what it would take to get a worse than expected recession or downturn >> i'd go along with that. you never want to underestimate the risks from the financial sector we saw in march that we had an acute situation with several

banks, that could clearly -- at a time when the economy is already slowing down, sort of another stranglehold further on credit that could tip the balance to a downturn i think there is a lot to think about though with consumers. the upper efrnd the income distribution is doing just fine and stilendi but middle and low end are feelings pain of the higher interest rates, student loan repayments that you mentioned, all of that is conspiring to crimp their spending our baseline view is that it will be even now by the stronger spending at the top end and we'll have this deceleration, but it won't fall off of a cliff, but i think that is another area of concern is how much is the lower half of the distribution going to feel >> thanks for coming in. and news coming out, meta announcing a subscription version of facebook and instagram with no ads, this is for folks in europe. this is to try to address concerns of a privacy in its ad policy that moves had been reported last week

yo now saying it will cost 10 euro per month if you sign up on a web browser or 13 euros a month if you sign up using ios or android apps. would you pay, no ads? >> no. >> okay. there is one noncustomer right there. coming up, we'll go inside mcdonald's third quarter results and clues about the state of the consumer 5g solutions today. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. las vegas grand prix chose t-mobile to help power operations for one of the world's largest racing events. mlb partners with t-mobile to advance how the game is played. and t-mobile's network helps aaa stay connected nationwide... to get their members back on the road. now's the time to see what america's largest and fastest 5g network can do for your business. only the sleep number climate360 smart bed lets you both sleep up to 13 degrees cooler or warmer on either side, and at your ideal level of comfort. now's the time to see what america's largest

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welcome back western digital the memory chip make says it will separate into two independent public companies, focused on data storage, growth and hard drive and flash markets. multiple outlets reported late last week that there were merging talks between western digital and a japanese memory manufacturing. that stalled, but a 12% boost.

and mcdonald's is out with third quarter results. earning and revenue beat expectations with price hikes. global same stores growth beating estimates. and we're about $262 the bank of american securities restaurant analyst analyst is joining us sarah, what did you think of these results? i have not been in a mcdonald's this last quarter, so they rose prices >> yeah, the whole industry has, but mcdonald's has always been sort of a leader prices we think will probably high single digits this quarter. so you think same store sales up 8, that is pretty much price >> and the question is how much can they continue that >> so far, right, implication is traffic plus mix customers are managing their baskets little bits. being a bit more cautious about

what they add to their menu or basket but i think in general the fact that they are able to pass through virtually all the price or at least have it show up in the same store sales suggest that price resistance is not really affecting them. >> so do you imagine that we'll continue to see prices go up at mcdonald's and that they will still get the same foot traffic in the door? >> i think that it will depend on what the rest of the economy does we've seen it across the board so i think that it will depend on combination of how customers are doing particularly we know the lower income customer, household income below $45,000 is a biggest share of their traffic. >> were you surprised how strong that consumer base is? we talk about consumers at the higher end, but is this a different group? >> yeah, there aren't that many choices. it is a good value and mcdonald's is seeing benefit of trading down from higher income customers. so to the extent that mcdonald's offers really good value, that is where the customers are going. >> were you confounded by the

move from august from 300 down to -- what was that? >> yeah, i mean all the restaurants kind of took it on the chin i think investors are were getting nervous about the m mcmacro environment. even mcdonald's. >> so you say what does it say about the entire yeek company system >> i think most of the restaurants will hold up a little better than expected. >> and if you could own, which would you own and which would you not own? >> we've been recommending chipotle they have an excellent quarter same store sales were still quite strong

we also like starbucks and domino's they should benefit from trade down here. but we've been less positive on qsr whichis burger king and wendy's. competing against mcdonald's can't be easy. >> sarah, thank you. i'm hungry now i don't know how you do it >> occupational hazard >> did you see the new advertisement for the breakfast items? >> do you think vitamin o will impact them? that is ozempic. >> near term probably not. again, lower income customer probably not so we'll see >> yeah, not yet >> to the extent that over time people stop doing the sort of impulse purchases, it could. but probably not anytime soon. >> remember when hulk hogan used to tell the kids to that their vitamins do you know what he was taking

to get bigger? >> you mean a steroid? yeah >> big mac, now in my head when we come back, sam bankman-fried on trial what we've learned about the last days of ftx we'll talk about that and the decision to put sbf on the tand. ishat the right one. you won't want to take them off. and with that outdoor worthy sole, you don't have to. the all around best slippers by olukai.

mr. burns, you deleted all negative tweets. is that evidence that you are in a cult and won't hear any criticism of your leader >> yes, i am in a cult it is called a marriage. my wife is the head of it and my job is to support her. now maybe you are the cult leader in your marriage, andrew, but i know pilar and i expect she disagrees. >> if you recognize that voice, that is because it was me. a little weird i'm not talking about mr. burns, i'm talking about the character that was interviewing him. that was last nirt's ght's simps a fun little episode >> that is cool. >> and my wife got a shout out,

it was called the thirst trap, a corporate love story it was a sort of silicon valley episode around a character that might be -- it was like a theranos style story effectively mr. burns had married and she was involved in a sort of technology with blood testing thing. >> oh, my gosh >> there was a -- there was a lot of different cameos. kara swisher had a cameo as well >> when you make it to the symptoms, that -- symptoms, that was the -- >> how many takes? >> dhafs prthat was probably thd this happened back in march. i assumed that the thing would be cut or something, right

>> wdid it take an hour half jus to say her name >> did you have a relationship with mr. burns, because that would be -- >> no, i don't know mr. burns. i did my part separately it wasn't like the other voices were there >> because mr. burns is the perfect corporate like sort of a villain. he represents all bad things >> oh, right >> if you could get him on deal book -- >> we could have him here. >> that is coming up >> that would be really cool that would be fun. >> andrew, i have to say, i mean, this is amazing. >> totally random by the way pip got an email from the casting director asking if i would do it so i thought -- >> perfect >> kind of fun

>> big thank you to the simpsons team because they were all awesome. >> in my own naive way, i'll say it is because of "squawk box." you're this -- because "new york times" is -- >> really because of you actually >> well, no, but i assume -- i mean, it cuts far and wide but this kara swisher, i don't understand that. >> she's a big wheel and there is an episode all about sole con silicon valley. ken burns was in there >> not related to mr. burns. >> no, but a mock sort of pretendole silicon valley. ken burns was in there >> not related to mr. burns. >> no, but a mock sort of pretendle silicon valley ken burns was in there >> not related to mr. burns. >> no, but a mock sort of pretende silicon valley. ken burns was in there >> not related to mr. burns. >> no, but a mock sort of pretend silicon valley ken burns was in there >> not related to mr. burns. >> no, but a mock sort of pretendsilicon valley. ken burns was in there >> not related to mr. burns. >> no, but a mock sort of pretend documentary about the characters so a whole bunch of fun things going on >> is he still around, the guy with the glasses >> smithers. >> yeah, is he around? >> i didn't -- >> so you weren't actually in that room with mr. burns, were

you? >> no. i was in a little recording booth in midtown >> nice head there >> were you sick your voice was a little different. >> was it? i don't know i don't know how my voice was -- i was probably trying to sound the part, whatever that is sound more official than i really am probably >> you've got the shirt, jackets, that was all -- >> they did very well. >> pocket square >> do you want to call illustrators >> well, sometimes you wear it >> and sometimes i don't that is true coming up, much more on the markets including what a top technician is seeing in the charts as we head to break, you can get ilpoasst of "squawk box" in our day dct.

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welcome back futures are up this morning. the dow up by 171 points s&p up by 25, nasdaq up by 102 joining us right now for what he is watching is senior markets

commentator mike santoli we're coming off 6of a weak week for the markets. >> yeah, a bit of acceleration to the down side in the index, although better below the surface last week, we had the heavy weight tech stocks kicking into the down side here is a two year chart starts to make sense when we see in relation to the october lows. we've given back about half the rally. and we did spend a ton of time in that area back in the spring, that was coming off the regional bank crisis low. so we'll see if there is any traction there market is getting oversold i mentioned the average stock didn't do quite as badly as s&p. but pretty dicey sort of now or never for one of those trades take a look within the market, there is a clear theme that we're bracing for some kind of

skin in the economic trajectory. this is transports and basic materials. you see the down side. up here, transports were vastly outperforming the market and they have given it all back. so good economic data, everything that we can look and feel, seems like it is in good shape in terms of a no landing or soft landing scenario market itself is bracing for some kind of impact based on the higher rates and the sense that something might have to bucket in the system. and the market sometimes overshoots and get it is wrong, so you can't say this is absolutely going to happen but we're in a bit of a growth scare when it comes to committee themes everyone is looking at the ten year yield it was down slightly, but i think what was significant is it never even once tipped below 4.8 last week. that is kind of where we broke out in the early part of this month. so in other words, not a lot of give in this yields. we got the announcements on treasury supply coming today and

wednesday. we'll see if there is any directional indicator of how this will go >> sonlg many things to watch. still in earnings season you've got the fed this week, you have got what is happening with the multiple wars around the globe. and then you have things like treasury issuance. what would you pin on being maybe the most important with all these different things >> i think in terms of potential near term catalyst, probably the combination of treasury supply plus the fed next three days basically. but it is worth remembering that since the stock market peaked in late july, we're down 10%, earnings forecasts over the next 12 months are up about 2 about respect to 3%. so whatever is going on, if earnings are coming through, ultimately market has gotten less expensive not more. >> okay. thanks, mike and joining us now with the issues that she is see management markets, skkatie

stockton will the three averages sync up? will we have actual corrections in the s&p and dow >> we've already seen a corrective phase unfold really broadly speaking you can see that in the breadth measures which have pulled back even more it seems than the major indices themselves so still an expanding i guess tape on the down side in terms of momentum. it has grown across the board. and that is a real setback for the s&p 500, down another 2.5% last week. and that brought a key support level of about 4180. so now this week is very pivotal because you probably recall that we always look for confirmation of breakdowns. and that is is especially important when we have an environment like this when emotions are running really high, there is a high level of bearishness in the market, we

have extremes, internal measures of stocks. that is when we need to make sure that these breakdowns are real because if we were to see down side follow through or even just kind of staying steady this week from the major indices, that would could not firm a breakdown and that would to us bea bearish development the coming months. >> it would help if we knew about the ten year too are the highs in on the ten year do you think or not? >> i think for now we look for higher highs and higher lows. but as we get into november, some of our very long term indicators, these are counter trend indicators, are on the verge of the likes the tlt, treasury bond etf, and there was a countering self signal in april of 2020 and that is the last signal based on this one model that we're tracking. so what it tells us is that even

for the next maybe 9 to 12 months that perhaps we have seen more consolidation in treasury yields and of course that could be something that could catalyze a better tape and of course also the fed could catalyze unconfirmed breakdown meaning a shakeout so glad to have the fed announcement this week as a potential catalyst for the market to rebound and a void that confirmed breakdown >> and that would seem to sync up with maybe a slight slowing in economic activity, it would allow the fed to be in a permanent pause instead of we're going at it like meeting to meeting whether they will raise it we might get to the point where if we decide the highs aren't here, we could decide that the fed is in permanent pause. nothing is permanent, but we won't be talking about it every meeting. >> that's right. and i think that that consolidation in yields is really just what the market needs to restore some confidence and valuations i know are part of the discussion.

but to me, the corrective phase, it is so hard to buy stocks into weakness, but often the right thing to do. and we now of course have this oversold condition short term intermediate term really across the board. and they are enhanced by the counter trend metrics. so we have the opportunity we feel here, but we have to make sure that the breakdown is avoided because breakdowns tend to overrule oversold conditions. secondary support for the s&p is shy of 3920. so that is another 5% plus below. and it might not be the stopping point if we do see a decisive break down here. so a critical week for the market >> bitcoin just blew through the resistance levels. where is the next one? support was 25% a week nutty. >> it really is. we did see a breakout from bitcoin as you mentioned above

resistance this was based on our cloud models, something that we've been watching for a long, long time so it is a significant breakout and it is confirmed. and it puts next resistance for bitcoin around 36,000. and i don't know exactly what the drivers are. seems to be related to the event tf sgpeculation, but it looks like a real breakout to me hard to imagine bitcoin doing well in a weak equity market environment. the relation to the nasdaq 100 has certainly broken un. but it does show some risk appetite in the market so i actually see it as a positive >> yeah, positive for the nasdaq probably if that is bottoming now. so once again we're dogging and tailing and whacky, but bitcoin is the dog >> yeah, and i mean, it is all about apple of course. so we have to see how that goes. but the nasdaq 100 is equally oversold of course and there are some counter trend indications. so as long as we really don't

have a bad week this week, we'll feel like we have a great entry point at least with the time horizon of perhaps a couple months maybe longer than that >> so the support on bitcoin, did you move that up >> yeah, so the form for resistance now becomes support so our clouds model which is sort of a moving target becomes a support gauge. i think it is around 32,000. but if you take a step back, it really looks like it is complete to the up side still a challenged market environment in a lot of ways including that breadth we cited, but we feel like it is a promising indication and if we were to also see the breakdown avoided by the s&p, i think that we can feel pretty comfortable taking on a bit more risk certainly into year end. and if we get the consolidation in yields that is more persistent, something that could last longer than that. pretty major resistance around 4600

and if it gets through that, that is where our longer term gauges, which are sort of neutral to lower at best that is where those start to improve >> all sounds pretty good. makes sense in october that things, you know, make a base. anyway, katie, thank you >> you're welcome. and coming up, the latest on the trial of one time crypto king samg bankman-fried we'll speak with someone who has been watching every twist and turn but first take another look at some of the key companies that have reported earnings so far this morning you know when you have those moments? that time to reflect.

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sam bankman-fried expected to be bank on the witness stand today in the federal fraud trial. friday the former crypto king told jurors that he did not commit fraud and said he thought his company's outside spending like paying for the naming rights for a sport as rein a came out of company profits. he admitted he made mistakes but never set out to take customers' money.out of company profits he admitted he made mistakes but never set out to take customers' money. >> joining us now is someone who is following this case closely teddy, this is an amazing case you've been there for a lot of it caroline ellison's testimony was

for you seminole and you think that that will have a big deciding factor. >> sure. the entire case of the prosecution is bolstered by tremendous documentary evidence from the three people that they worked most closely with and you can bet that, you know, as part of the closing statements later this week, you hear carolyn, carolyn, carolyn and also later today when sam is cross-examined by the defense -- sorry, by the prosecution which is sort of the risk that sam opened himself up to by agreeing to testify last week on friday, sam got the chance to tell his life story. and i'm sure it felt good after sitting there for weeks upon end hearing people say mean things about him to say his piece like today is the punishment for what happened friday now he will have hours upon hours of every hole poked possible in his testimony from

friday and it will be painful it will be probably entertaining and sad and dramatic but sam signed up for this >> you guessed a long time ago that his ego would not allow him to not testify >> yeah. i mean, i do not think that he could have resisted. i mean, i'm open to the idea that him testifying actually could have been a rational expected value calculation given the fact that he was already, you know, in so much legal troubling maybe he thought what do i have to lose. but i also think that he is somebody who has lived and seeing the highest highs based on that ego. he is the same person he was a year ago he hasn't gone on some sort of personality transplant he is the same person. he is as much a believer in his

cha charms and wils as he was when he talked with andrew in 2022 or talked with me in 2020 he is a believer in sam bankman-fried narrative. >> do you think there is any juror in that room that, that one single person who could ever be a holdout for him or do you think it is such a slam dunk at this point >> there are 12 people there can you convince one person? >> but is there anything that you've heard the entire time -- and i'll be straight with you, i haven't been there as many days as you, but i feel like i have not seen -- having lived through cases, whether it was dennis kozlowski 20 years ago there were enough people in the courtroom where you would get a feeling that there was either some sympathy for the defendant or a view that maybe the defendant was being wrongly accused or wrongly something. >> right >> i will tell you, you do not

feel that at least from the vantage point that i have had in this instance. >> it's tough from us, you know, where we're sitting to, like -- >> right >> to overly scrutinize the hand through the hair or, you know, the facial reactions of the jurors, but look sam has not mounted a credible defense to date. i mean, the entire defense case is basically sam, and if you are a juror and you're trying to sit there saying, what is the reason i have to vote, you know, to acquit, i don't know what you are looking at you're basically believing that this character is more credible than, you know, the preponderance of documentary evidence, and i don't think sam has given that jury a reason to acquit. >> we were having this conversation off-air before. >> yeah. >> there have been some people who had seen what sam has said in the past, who have heard his, you know, his side of the story,

who have walked away andi have been surprised by some of the people who have thought, hey, you know, maybe you need to give him the benefit of the doubt in these scenarios. the evidence, i have not seen the evidence and i have not been sitting in the courtroom what do you think is the toughest thing he's fighting in that situation >> you know, i think when you look at the thousand-plus pieces of evidence that prosecutors have submitted, sam talked about, you know, "the new york times" test, that he didn't want to have things in writing that could be used, ironically, you know, to send him to jail or, you know, to create a negative headline for him, but i think the -- even if you ignore everything sean and gary said, the documentary evidence that is in the signal messages, the excel sheets, the google doc, the love letter -- i don't know what you want to call them >> right >> you can deem carolyn, gary,

and them as total liars, by the documentation they provided is evidence on its own. >> convincing them he put those funds in his hedge fund and used it as a piggy bank at the same time it's a straight forward case. >> sam's going to try to make it as complex as possible you saw it on friday when he was droning on and on and probably boring people and now the jurors have the weekend to say, well, it was really confusing. who am i to say, you know, what the proper relationship between alameda and ftx should be? maybe that's what a defense looks like is just the kind of -- >> do you see any -- we're going to have to run, but do you see any separation between the counts this becomes important later for sentencing purposes. >> correct >> do you see, you know, these three counts as being, you know, unassailable, that they'll convict here, but maybe these

two other counts are more wiggly and he has opportunity there or do you think it's, like, you know, dominos? >> sure. i think we're going to see what the charging instructions look like from the judge later this week, but that's demanding a lot of a juror to distinguish between, well, if they did a fraud in sqequoia, but if he is convicted on any of these, it'll be all of them who do you trust do you trust sam or the army of people testifying against them i don't think there's much that you can distinguish on the individual charges here. i'm not seeing it. >> teddy, thank you very much. >> sure thing. "squawk box" will be right back ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. alphabet ceo arriving in the court just moments ago he's going to testify in the government's antitrust file, and cnbc will bring you more developments throughout the day as they're happening a little more than a half an hour until the opening bell on wall street. one piece of market commentary

we have been talking about, rally has now fallen joining us is a research strategist at alpha simplex. do you agree with that >> i do. we've seen negative sentiment, and negative signals in the equity markets i think for us, the biggest thing we're watching is the difference between these megacaps and the small caps and we have to distill out where that rally or that bust comes from because i think that tells us a little bit about the impact of the interest rate rates, the moves that we've seen recently. >> any view on what we saw from mcdonald's today does that give you hope that the middle tier and lower are holding up better given the price hikes? >> yes i mean, seeing positive numbers is always helpful in the situation because the biggest concern that most people are saying to me is, how about the consumer how's the consumer going to deal with this higher for longer situation, and i think if you look positively, the consumer

is -- could be stronger than some people think, and i think the timing of when we might have some recession-type movements is where the trickiness is going to be i think the fourth quarter could be more range-bound than some people think. >> what does your calendar look like for a recession if you think one is coming? >> i think it's going to take longer than the market expects and what we've seen this fall is we've seen yields going up and people having a point of recognition that yields are going to be higher i think there's been a moment of questioning recently what does that mean? and they're expecting things to happen right away. i think it's going to take a couple of quarters for us to see up into next year some sort of reaction to that type of change in yields that people are so concerned about. >> 30 quick seconds. jay powell, and the meeting starts tomorrow. we'll hear from him on wednesday. what are you expecting to hear what kind of signal do you think we're going to hear? >> i don't think we're going to see much, but i think that's what everyone is expecting

yields have come so far, and there's a lot of positive things that he's looking at, and he's still concerned about a few of the upside risks and things like inflation. i think we're just kind of stuck in the middle like i said before range-bound. >> stuck in the middle ♪ with you ♪ >> katherine, thank you. appreciate it very much. enjoy the rest of the day. we'll see how much you can enjoy the rest of the day. markets are higher the do you up 180 points and 96 points up, and maybe show you quake quickly show you the ten-year. the two-year at 5.067. we're stuck in the middle. that's what this is like make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins now. ♪ good monday morning. welcome to