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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 30, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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>> probably want to see it broad ounce a little bit and last, and not be a one-day snapback. a lot of big events this week. the jobs report friday, the treasuries refunding announcement getting attention how big is that? maybe the supply announcement isn't going to be as big as some fear i tried to write a newsletter about that. >> apple earnings in the week. >> the event tonight at 8:00 p.m. going to be a big one. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from president biden. t -- post nine. the critical week gets rolling the next several days deciding where your money goes whether a late year rally is in the cards. fed, apple, jobs, all in focus, more than that too your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation looks like that decent bounce for almost everything but the small caps today. the nasdaq getting a boost from its players like microsoft and
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meta tesla till down close to 5% in today's session. that's something to keep an eye on we will. overall communication services, the strongest of the sector, only energy giving some back today. still, a touch defensive, consumer staple stocks performing pretty well today interest rates ahead of tomorrow's fed meeting holding firm 10-year around 4.9%. there you go just shy of that it does take us to our talk of the tape the biggest stock in the market hold the biggest key to the market's next move we are talking apple, of course, holding a mac event tonight. reports earnings on thursday the stock dicey as investors question the strength of the new iphone and what's happening on the ground in china. we'll ask morgan stanley's eric woodring who covers the stock and he's here as you can see we'll do that in a moment. in the meantime we have breaking news to steve liesman. what do you have >> scott, the u.s. treasury announcing its borrowing needs for october and december, saying it will be $776 billion.
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a couple context, little context on that. $76 billion below the prior estimate made in july, however it is record borrowing still for that quarter the october-december quarter was held by revenues from defer taxes in places like california and the irs from some natural disasters allowed them to defer taxes and now they're being et paid it is offset by slightly higher spending as well the first estimate for the january to march quarter $816 billion. maybe a bit above some of the system i've seen on the street that is record borrowing for the quarter. however, the treasury is going to maintain a balance of $750 billion, a cash balance for both quarters that's a bit higher than i thought, so that ends up increasing the amount the treasury needs to borrow we have seen estimates up $700 billion. the treasury being more prudent given the way the politics are going, keeping a slightly higher cash balance
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776, scott, for the next quarter and then for the first quarter of next year, $816 billion both are records one down a little bit from the prior estimate. >> bond yields not moving much one of two big events from treasury and the biggy on wednesday. boy, there's so many investors focused on this refunding announcement from the treasury, probably unlike any other announcement they've made. >> yeah. the two announcements go in concert, scott this is how much and then the next bit the market is going to be focused in on is how, what tenors will the treasury be borrowing, how much in bills, how much in coupons, what tenor is in the coupon, 5, 3, 7, or 10. 20 and 30 in the mix as well we're in this phase right now where essentially the bond market and yield on the tenure is leading the stock market and so there is some good news in
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this we'll see what happens to revenue here, scott. one of the economic puzzles out there is why has growth been so strong, but tax revenue been so weak maybe it's going to come around and we will get some surprises on tax revenue it won't change the overall picture, however, which is the government needs to borrow an awful lot and in record amounts. >> thank you appreciate that very much. maybe no big surprises, the market near the highs of the day. mike santoli is with us right now. as i said the issuance announcement on wednesday is the one where a lot of folks are focused on to the point where the -- on "halftime" i said to our investment committee, big events, jobs report, fed meeting, apple what's the biggest one they said it's the issuance announcement because that's gotten people worked up because of what it's done to bond yields. >> from three months ago people learned the lesson the capacity of this announcement when a lot of issuance at the longer end of the curve, the fed, the treasury
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attempting to force a lot of folks to buy duration, that that is what hobbled the market and got treasury yields spring loaded three months ago the equivalent announcement came at a quarter of a trillion above the prior estimate that was the upside surprise in overall supply in july that coincided with the low-end yields and the move higher i would characterize today's news with regard to the equity rally as a bullet donald, you know, we got ourselves worked up, didn't have an immediate need to be worried and see if this is more than a bounce what we're a doing in stocks is mopping up the mess left by thursday and friday. we're not back to wednesday's highs. >> what do you think today is about? in the real sense, look at what's working, small caps or they're lagging, starting to pick up a little bit of steam. big, widely held stocks like tesla are lagging and lagging dramatically. >> i think it's about we pulled the rubber band pretty tight fridays have been this occasion
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since the unrest in the middle east, since the conflict started, to just get anxious ahead of a weekend so we did see volatility bid we closed near yet another what could be support level, right. the area around 4100 a little bit of a make or break. we're oversold how much more negative do you want to get. also no real earnings reports today, so all the stuff that got the market unsettled coming in, really not a lot of macro aside from the treasury announcement very short-term, you have to look at it in a narrow lens and we're not back to wednesday's close. >> good to have you to put this into context what liesman was reporting what the market activity was about we'll see you later on in the show let's bring in ed yardeni and emily roland of john hahn kok investment management. ed, i'll begin with you. your note caught my eye. for somebody who has been so positive on the market, s&p not likely to he regain what's been lost since july over the rest of the year
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still think a rally is possible, but between now and thanksgiving, easier to see downside given the developments in the middle east and jitteriness in the bond market explain. >> well, the middle east situation is horrible, and it has the potential to become a regional war we've already seen the united states attack some facilities over in syria and iraq and so it's not over by a long shot, and unlike previous crises like these, this one may last a while. i think we are going to continue to have uncertainty with regards to how that plays out. now if there is a disturbance to the flow of oil the saudis will produce more unless they get involved in some ways in this whole thing. meanwhile the jitteriness we see in the bond market over the supply i think will continue to hang over the market we will have a year-end rally and i was thinking 4600 by year
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end, where we were back in the summer i think maybe we'll get to 4400. >> i think a lot of people would take that. in terms of the thing i was talking to mike santoli about, biggest events of the week, treasury, obviously, on wednesday, fed, apple, jobs, which one carries the day to you? >> i think the market is going to be focusing on the treasury refunding announcement, how much will be in the various kind of securities that's what the bond market is concerned about. and these days the stock market has to be concerned about what the bond market is concerned about. that's where we are at this point. i think in terms of the fed policy making, powell is likely to say on wednesday that remain fairly hawkish, which i mean it was only october 19th he was interviewed and prevented a hawkish outlook on interest rates higher for longer. we've known this for a while i don't know that the press conference is going to matter that much. >> emily, we need a lot of
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things to go right, i think it's fair to say. maybe this announcement that steve brought us at the very top of our program is step one no great surprises stocks near the highs of the day as i suggested you get the beginning of the fed meeting and key events, apple and jobs are you sanquine on the markets between now and the end of the year, or more cautious >> yeah. i think markets, frankly could continue to chop around here as we approach the end of the year. on one hand we're not really seeing the type of liquidity event that we would normally see in the face of this much fed tightening in a short amount of time, but on the other hand it's hard to identify a catalyst for the sort of explosive earnings growth we've seen over the last couple years i think there's support for higher quality areas of the market i think as long as the labor market dynamics remain okay, as long as the consumer continues to spend, as long as earnings are decent, i think markets could continue to see some support here again, i think it's tough to
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imagine an environment where you see a lot of multiple expansion here, especially given the fact that 12% earnings growth is baked into the equation for the s&p 500 next year which i think is overly optimistic given where we are in the economic cycle. >> you say earnings have been decent maybe the difference maker this earnings period versus before, good earnings reports haven't been rewarded like in the past does apple help change that? >> potentially we've seen divergence across the earnings result for the magnificent seven here you think it's an interesting point, we're seeing a 77% beat rate, which is solid and companies are surprising by 7.7%, but that's just not being rewarded we're seeing stock prices on average falling around earnings reports. i think, you know, the market is potentially sniffing out the fact that the earnings estimates are overly optimistic. the fourth quarter, and
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estimates are being trimmed. they had been 8% market analysts are looking for 5% i think that's one reason that you've seen such concentration in terms of market performance tech, we got a lot out of tech this year. we saw a massive rally to start the year in technology companies. perhaps they sort of end up chopping around. maybe we don't get a ton from them over the next couple months as the year concludes but on a relative basis we prefer opening tech it's good profitability over cyclical parts of the market that are unprofitable companies. that's where we avoid chasing returns there. >> ed, is the tech trade troubled >> i don't think it's troubled i think it's an opportunity, quite honestly by the way, on your question of what's the most important event this week, it may actually turn out to be on thursday when we have productivity reported for the third quarter. we had a very strong productivity number in the second quarter with the strength of real gdp we could have
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another one in the third quarter and we may very well be starting to see a resumption of the productivity growth movement that i think is ahead of us, and that can only happen if companies use a lot of technology to solve one of their biggest problems right now, which is a shortage of skilled workers. >> well both of you point out the cross currents that we have to navigate this week. it's going to be a busy and interesting one and we're starting off with a bang, at least on this monday thank you so much. we'll talk to you both soon. ed and emily morgan stanley's eric woodring here as i showed you with apple's earnings top of mind for investors this week. thanks for being patient as we got through breaking news and kicked around hot market on this monday you seem to underscore very well the sentiment around the name. you reiterate your outperform, but you also admit that you're tactically cautious. how do you separate both >> again, if we take a kind of page from the guest prior, apple is still a high quality company and name i want to bet on long
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term if i have duration on my side, i say at $169, i feel comfortable being overweight when we think about earnings on thursday and the potential for apple to guide the quarter below our consensus numbers are, tactically given what we've talked about in terms of the setup for tech this cycle, i think it makes me more kau muss. >> let me go deeper. why wouldn't it be thesis changing new phone. we've had this upgrade cycle prolonged because of covid and they come out with the hot new phone, latest and greatest going into the most important quarter of the year. >> yeah. >> when you have a new phone and if it doesn't live up to expectations why doesn't that change the thesis where the iphone is still everything >> i think this is reminiscent of the iphone 13 cycle for us. what happened in the iphone 13 there were production shortages or component shortages for the pro and pro max. we came into september quarter earnings, apple's december quarter guidance disappointed.
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fast forward three months, what we learned is that the component shortages impacting december quarter, actually loosened a bit. apple was able to post upside to the december quarter and guide to a stronger market, stronger than seasonal march quarter. this feels similar the shortfall in the december quarter this year is not a product of weaker demand we think it's a result of supply component constraints with the iphone 15 pro max where there's not enough devices and some of the demand gets pushed forward if that's the same setup as the iphone 13 cycle, better than seasonal march quarter which makes it a tough setup right now but ultimately in the big picture doesn't change our view. it is more supply driven than demand driven. >> wondering when it comes to demand how you're thinking about china? we're talking 20% of revenue is out of china now we have the headline reports, however you want to characterize them, suggesting
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that huawei is taking share in china from apple, which would be a demand issue, not necessarily a supply issue. >> yeah. i think china, the commentary is fair we have china units down this year apple was the biggest beneficiary of huawei going away it does make sense to think of apple being in kind of the cross hairs of potentially losing share. we think iphone shipments are down in china this cycle again, is china broken as an end market for apple no there's more competition and risk to share gains this year. directionally i think it's down. the offset to that would be actually the u.s. and emerging markets ex-china look better than we expected the world is a big place china matters a lot. the rest of the world theoretically matters more than china. >> people i talked to recently on this program and the other one are like the chart doesn't look good. the chart, this stock hasn't traded well. it's almost a rarity when you
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come into a report where apple shares haven't traded well usually runs up into the number and maybe the risk is it sells off on the other side, sell the news not this time. >> it's been an interesting year we saw almost 200 earlier this summer, let's call it, stock down to 170. last time i was on i talked about 160 being that level where i would be more comfortable coming on here and saying scott, let's get more aggressive. what i want to do is get september quarter earnings out of the way, again, i think the september quarter is okay. it's the december quarter guide i'm concerned about. get earnings out of the way he see where the stock settles and go from there. apple actually hasn't traded as prolifically as it had in the first half of the month. year to date it's my second best performer after dell. >> the guide whill have the utmost focus after last week's mega cap reports is that risk to get you to 160
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perhaps? >> yes. >> $10 decline. >> that's what i'm looking for do i think we will see a $10 decline in the stock immediately after the earnings report, no, but what it does, it shapes up for the potential negative catalyst event further through the year the doj google trial is expected to end or get headlines in the middle of december if that's the case there is a bit of a negative catalyst calendar here between earnings and mid-december that makes me cautious into the print, but when i take a step back, the google doj trial matters, but earnings you a short blip in the scheme of things and more supply driven than demand driven. >> apple has been sort of left out of the ai narrative. it's been about everybody else but it does that change any time soon >> i don't think it changes soon but it changes the iphone is the ultimate device we keep on our person it has all our details, whether financial detail, location detail safe, secure, that is apple's way, but what that ultimately
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does is gives apple a ton of data to use and to me, siri is the ultimate personal assistant and makes a ton of sense there's a been reports apple is investing in ai. we know they're using some of that technology, for example, for smart dictation, better auto correct, but that's not the end all, be all. to me the end all be all is siri as the ultimate smart assistant and we are taking baby steps to get there. apple cares about regulation, biden signed in a new bill today talking about ai regulation. i think apple wants to understand where regulation falls before they make a big bet. >> how much patience, if you want to use that word, does the street give it to come with something substantive, siri or otherwise, because tired of hearing about these other companies that appear to be further ahead in the monetization of ai and now we need something from tim cook. >> yeah. i think what we're going to wait for really, and i know the
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market might not want to hear this, wwdc next summer their big software developer kickoff. generative ai is software driven you need hardware for it i think that could be the next event where we get a showcasing of the potential capabilities apple's hard work can provide all of us as consumers until then it would have to be a one off special event. >> you don't feel like there's any deal related stuff that could happen on the ai front organically? it's not going to be good enough you need to do something splashy? it's not the apple way we know that but you change your ways with changing times. >> i don't disagree but i don't think they're going to go outside of the apple ecosystem to acquire something to be specific apple does acquire smaller businesses those have become rollups to use the technology to enable their tragedy strategy going forward. >> your biggest deal ever is beats. >> correct. >> you know where i'm going.
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>> i'm on the same pain. i don't think we're going to get much bigger than that. >> lastly speaking of bigger than that the current buyback is probably the biggest out there where does that go from here and does that provide a floor of sorts as well? >> a bit i think that's right $20 billion a quarter we've seen for several years since the 2018 kind of tax reform it's impressive. again, there are quarters where it slows like last quarter where the stock actually edged up a bit higher but i would say apple is going to be in the market for $20 billion a quarter for the foreseeable future they generate enough cash to be able to utilize that cash, eventually get to net cash neutral over time while buying $80 billion a year. >> it's going to be an exciting week. >> thanks, scott. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know which event this week do you think is more important for the near term direction of stocks? the fed decision, apple earnings, the robs report?
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maybe an other, something from the treasury ahead to @cnbc to vote we're just getting started and we could have a final stretch. the stock market is near the highs of the day we're almost up 600 on the dow up next, sam bankman-fried is back on the stand. his cross-examination starting a few hours ago. a live report from outside the courthouse a few blocks from here live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life.
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about 35 minutes left in the trading day. let's get a check on some top stocks to watch from kristina partsinevelos. >> hi scott. shares of data storage firm western digital are popping 7% right now. the company posted better than expected q1 results but announced plans to split the company into two separate entities to find value something activist investor el lot management pushed for. western digital will be two separate units that focus on flash memory and hard drive storage. stock up almost 8% at this point. shares of silly carbine producer, on semiconductor, down management is turning cautious because of weakness in ev demand from europe and higher interest rates. the company having its worst day since march 2020 and may not bode well for earnings that are out after the bell.
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>> thank you meantime we're all over the latest developments in the sam bankman-fried trial as he takes the stand today. kate rooney outside the courthouse with the latest for us kate >> reporter: hi, scott the past couple hours in that courtroom have been all about questioning sam bankman-fried's credibility. we've seen cross-examination, why -- by the prosecution inside they've been trying to point out inconsistencies where bankman-fried was saying one thing behind closed doors and painting a different things publicly government attorneys are presenting him with tweets, a handful of media interviews, an interview in which i spoke to bankman-fried, and he told me his hedge fund at the time was a, quote, neutral piece of market infrastructure. alameda was actually a front running trade, $65 billion line of credit and the ability to go negative bankman-fried says he only vaguely remembers telling me that we've heard that about a lot of media interviews, he didn't
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remember certain things he said in the press none of that about his hedge fund that i mentioned was disclosed publicly saying the opposite to many reporters and on twitter as well they went through other media interviews, he did not remember, so they brought up bloomberg, ft that brought tension into the courtroom and they also brought up the fact that he testified under oath to congress the jury has seen e-mails as well there was this -- you can call it a cringe worthy kind of awkward moment he was directly asked about private messages with a journalist he called some crypto customers, i'll paraphrase this, dumb mother effers. he said that and then they had him read another part of the message where he said ef regulators to put it lightly. that was a key moment in the courtroom today. we'll bring you updates as we get them. >> you highlight one of the key challenges, though, kate, for the defense in which off times
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in cases like thus, the defendant hasn't said anything publicly from the time of arrest to the time of trial, and here we have sam bankman-fried giving so many interviews in that period of time, whether it's to you, i remember, you know, one with andrew our colleague as well, and so many others. >> yeah. george stephanopoulos. they talked about andrews interview with him at deal book. hard to say when you have print articles, broadcast interviews, transcripts of what he said, he is turning around now and saying, oh, i don't really remember that. the prosecution said you're saying that journalist misrepresented this and he's had to backtrack and say actually no there's also interviews, but there's been books written, so the prosecution walked up to him with a book recently written and had sam bankman-fried holdthe book, look at it and then they talked about certain pages in the book there's so much evidence in terms of what he has said publicly, which in some ways now is kind of catching up to him
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that he has to speak to and teen a lot of things he said in a year since his crypto company collapsed. >> such a unique period. thank you so much. kate rooney outside the courthouse up next the key levels to watch. top technician jason hunter breaking down the charts for us and why he's staying defensive after this break "closing bell" right back. only the new sleep number smart beds let you both sleep at your ideal level of comfort... your sleep number setting. and now, all of our new next gen smart beds have temperature benefits. and now save up to $500 on our new sleep number smart beds. sleep next level. shop for a limited time only at sleep number. you know when you have those moments?
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welcome back stocks rallying to start the week the s&p and dow hitting session highs at this moments. the next key levels to watch from jason hunter head of technical strategy at jpmorgan it's good to see you again i'm reading these notes, and i'm like, man, jason is negative on the market 3500 is your medium term target. we're going down 15% on the s&p.
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that's over the medium term and likely a first half target over the next year. in the near term the 4050 area as the base case target zone and while we've closed most of that gap from where the market peaked 4600 during the summer even as we approach it we're hesitant to put money to work for a couple reasons. sentiment not quite extreme yet and the relationship between price and sentiment tends to be a progressive one. damage could happen in price to finish off that sentiment number we don't see the typical patterns at the high frequency level to suggest the market is basing yet. >> sentiment is bad. it's hard to find bullish the bulls seem to be wavering. we probably won't make back what we lost between now and the end of the year. >> like i said, there's a couple surveys we look at the price action versus the readings, it's getting closer, but that last step often could be a doozy not to mention the nasdaq and big cap f.a.a.n.g., the
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magnificent seven they're starting to threaten and break support now. that's where individuals are crowded. we want to see if that break as it progresses, if that could lead to a crescendo type selling event that caused the s&p to overshoot what our fourth quarter target was at that point we think you start to set up for a bounce in a bear market the medium term still negative given the view longer term it's bearish and we want to be selective and careful about where we suggest clients to deploy capital or take hedges off. >> the danger in the charts and looking back at history for that matter, is that it sometimes doesn't match up many things about this current cycle have been out of the ordinary and haven't matched from historical standards. going back to the october bottom it's not like we had a crescendo of selling that last moment of capitulation that got us there it was sort of a drip and a drip and a drip, and then just when
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you thought we were going to be even more in trouble, the market rallied back to some degree. it's been a confounding market in many respects. >> yeah. but what was consistent then even when you go back to the 3500 bottom last october, look at our notes, a number of our systemic recognition patterns triggered, sentiment did get bearish. there were consistencies that let us get bullish on that reversal. >> mega caps, how much does the market need them right now and what is last week's trade tell you, if anything, as those stocks are rallying trying to rally back >> yeah. i think, you know, you're seeing some of them have support, some haven't, some have benefitted from good earnings numbers, with the nasdaq trading where it is, it's really in a dangerous spot. you're right at the spring-summer range lows if you look at how the ai theme that led to that pretty explosive rally, where a lot of f.a.a.n.g. names or magnificent seven are linked, my guess is a
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lot of longs bought in after the fact during the summer months and not before, so if you start to trade below those lows even the best buying you could have done this summer, those individuals are going to be under water. like i said we want to be careful because if you start to see wholesale selling from that thin group given its cap weather in the s&p s&p you could take the s&p from where we think it could bottom down to 3900 quickly if you see those particular stocks break. >> that's the danger in momentum buying, right? you are not there. you see a bunch of momentum and get on the train and the train is about to run out of steam and i guess a segue to the russell off of that, you say that the small caps have already achieved your downside objective. now, some might take that as a contrarian indicator to say okay, maybe the worst is over, maybe the economy actually is going to hang in there well enough and that small caps are now a buy. are youing suggesting they're
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not. >> in relative terms maybe the fact that they're at the levels they're at, if i look at the russell 2000 in isolation, with the cross market dynamics and curve inversion, i looked for that bottom pattern on the russell. the problem is, if you're going to see that sharp selling in mega cap it's hard to um gin that small cap is not going to come under pressure as well. even then makes me hesitant in absolute terms to look at the russell as a long. in relative terms it's starting to look attractive relative to the mega cap growth. >> you think yields have peaked? we get the issuance announcement on wednesday, fed decision same day, jobs on friday. where are we on those? >> about a week and a half ago we published a note the same idea we look at systemic signaling, a handful of pattern based algorithms that identify trends in the market that give you risk-reward. those suggestions starting to buy treasuries we did suggest a long in the five-year note and think that
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looks like a peak. if we're right on the equity call and equities come under pressure that's only going to help and break the bond stock correlation and that will confirm the durable bullish reversal the technical signals aren there there and we're acting on it. >> jason hunter joining us up next we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is back with that. >> one biopharma firm getting love from an analyst who thinks the stock drop is an overreaction that name and much more after this break
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. we're about 17 minutes from the "closing bell. back to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the key stocks she is watching. >> let's start with abbvie higher as the biopharma giant gets upgraded to overweight at barclays analysts say friday's 4% drop came in the context of overall weakness in biotech and
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shattered results from abbvie, overreaction there could be more near term choppiness but promising momentum down the road xpo is higher after the logistics giant smashed earnings expectations today the firm caused that the freight market remains soft but spill managed to post revenue growth and expand margins and shares are up 16% stock? >> kristina, thank you very much. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked, which event this week is more important for the near term direction of stocks the fed decision, apple earnings, or jobs report on friday head to @cnbcclosingbell on x. the results after this break
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♪ zoo al . all right. the results. which event is more important for the near important direction of stocks? fed decision gets the most votes mere half of you voted that way. all right. up next pinterest results out the a few minutes and a rundown of what to look for when the numbers t "t. en we take you inside the market zone.
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we're in the market zone the "closing bell" market zone senior commentator mike santoli here to break down the moments of this trading day. phil lebeau on the sell swrauf swrauf -- sell-off in tesla and julia boorstin looking at pinterest. what do you think it's about >> a good snapback i think it's relaxing after tensing up so much on friday the drop in oil, the trop in the volatility index, you had the small cap russell 2000 you were talking about, really retesting its bear market lows from last
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october. not insignificant in terms of the feel position of the market and whether, in fact, people wanted to start to back off of it a little bit on the sell side that's what's been going on mostly you want to see, i would hope, more than one day of pop and things like the regional banks which are up today all the beat up areas and consumer cyclicals getting relief so it's impossible on a one-day basis to distinguish just the kind of reflex oversold bounce that will fail from the start of something real, but this is the way, you know, all the recoveries do eventually get going. >> all right phil lebeau, to you. tesla, ugly day. other ev stocks too. what's going on here >> yeah. it's a rough day to be in the ev automakers right now, scott. when you look at these shares all under pressure today tesla shares under 200 for the first time since back in may three things driving the stocks lower. first of all, much more cautious commentary over the last couple weeks regarding the demand for
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evs, it may be slowing down. the growth rate is not going to be as great. on semiconductor coming out saying they see pockets of softness, particularly when it comes to evs panasonic, cutting its battery plow du-- production, what do te supply batteries to? the model s and x. shares of tesla i mentioned we are under 200 for the first time since may. not a good looking chart but not a surprise given what we've seen and the commentary we've seen regarding evs and the demand slowing down. >> no doubt about that appreciate that very much. phil lebeau. mike santoli, i just wonder if something else is at work here headline fidelity right writes its twitter down an x internal note said the company worth $19 billion, not $44 billion that elon musk paid for it i wonder if the market thinks that musk is going to have to sell more tesla shares to deal
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with the x debt? there's all the bank issues and all of that and that is why this stock is down 5%, more so than for some of the other reasons, however legitimate they may be, but musk selling would be an overhang again. >> no doubt it's in the air. ap lot of focus on that and also if you look back to the fourth quarter when he was actively selling a lot, it also did coincide with the time when people were radically cutting their estimates or what volumes would be at tesla. it seems like it's coming around together, wasn't two independent things similarly, tony sacconaghi at bernstein, another skeptical note whether tesla might have to come off targets for 2024 volumes. i think a lot of things are probably weighing on sentiment right now. they had to cut price a lot to keep their 2023 volumes on track. how much are they going to have to do next time, margin expectations too high? i would say in terms of if he has to sell stock, this is stock
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that trades 25, $30 billion worth of shares a day. hard for him to sell so much it's going to swap demand but the psychology of it is something inescapable when he's backing away further from his commitment. >> he could do it over multiple periods of time. >> of course my point being theoretically the market should be able to absorb whatever he had to sell to top up the creditors or whatever top inject equity into twitter. >> there have been air pockets in the stock before. >> yeah. sell $40 billion. >> this comes at a time where mega caps are being scrutinized. >> sure. >> maybe more heavily than they have in the past we shall see julia boorstin, pinterest, coming out in o.t., what do we expect >> scott, pinterest is expected to accelerate its revenue growth nearly 9%. that would be up from 6% in the prior quarter. we're watching to see whether pinterest echos comments from
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meta, snap and youtube about a strengthening ad market in the quarter and listening for concern about uncertainty in the fourth quarter in light of the hamas-israel war, something we heard from meta and snap pinterest's partnership with amazon is very much in focus they opened third-party ad selling on pinterest at the end of april. this will be the first full quarter with a partnership's impact stifel upgrading pinterest in part to buy, writing, quote, pinterest is the most unique of any of the social platforms because it is so brand safe unlike tiktok, it's place to showcase products. it's so commercial focused we're going to be focused on perry guidance for q4 when the company reports shortly. >> all right we will see what, in fact, they deliver. mike, back to you, we have, you know, a handful of minutes here. dow up 535 an interesting snap back what do you make of the twitter poll fed meeting still commands the room, but you could easily make the argument that the other events happening this week
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whether the issuance, step one came today, apple earnings on thursday an then the jobs report on friday, are going to, you know, play the biggest role if deciding whether there is a little gas to be pushed between now and the end of the year. >> yeah. i think it's the combination of the fed and the treasury announcements giving us a little bit of a reality check on our yields now in the right place. i think those two things, whether -- how powell characterizes where we've gone in yields how much financial conditions have tightened, and i think the supply story in terms of yields has been taken for granted, but we kind of don't know you have to test the yield move, for is it about mostly supply getting in higher than expected. so all of it matters in terms of apple, i've always sod it's less of a bellwether for other companies, but the stock tends to be a huge contributor to investor psychology and if the market is going to have a recovery move
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and going to be persuasive, you would think apple would be a part of that or at least people feeling as if the worst fears they had about the fundamentals of apple were not realized i think all of it does get into the mix. it's happening at a time when more broadly, we're asking, you know, was it just a bear market rally and do we care what we labeled it i thought it interesting a lot of folks who were skeptical on the way up and the mega cap weighted s&p had things go their way. the index has come back. not a lot of the market looks like it's in bull market mode and nobody is saying declaring victory because they think downside more downside to go, whereas you could make the case that we've also got a little bit washed out and we're at that seasonally strong part of the year and so i think the debate remains no matter which direction you came at it. >> i thought it was interesting listening to somebody bullish like eric is, top of our program, suggest yeah, i'm a little cautious in the near term
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stock could go down to the 160 level. i would say if apple goes to 160, the overall market is not going to look great because of how big it is and widely held and where it spreads its tentacles through the dow and s&p and the nasdaq. >> it means the market is not in a mood to give credit to the highest quality companies to figure things out down the road and try to discount valuations down the road. lot of that has happened apple was at 125, like labor day of 2020. if you're down to 160, all of a sudden it's not up that much on a multiyear basis. it is an interesting moment to say yeah, maybe it got ahead of itself trading the 30 times earnings but now that we're back down a few multiple pounds lower can where you take a shot. >> yields, everything is up extent for the three-month t-bill. >> up small. >> stability, they haven't come down that much, but they haven't
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gone up a lot anymore either. >> that's right. therefore it's about waiting for wednesday with the fed and the treasury announcement. >> why our viewers are smart and said wednesday matters more than anything, the fed meeting to the near term direction of the stocks see all of you tomorrow. sen it into o.t. with morgan and jon. 500 on the dow the scorecard on wall street welcome to "closing bell: overtime". i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. >> coming up, an exclusive interview with commerce secretary gina raimondo as the biden administration issues the country's first executive order on artificial intelligence. >> we're exactly halfway through earnings season and we'll get a wide range of results this hour from names like perry, chegg, wolfspeed and simon property and all the action as the numbers roll in. >> we're looking ahead to

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