refunding announcement on wednesday. and jobs report on friday. going to be a very big market-moving week >> it's been an earnings season, again, where revenues haven't outperformed as much as profits have we'll see have if that continues. >> that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight a strong start to the week the dow rallying more than 500 points for its best day since early june but with more earnings on tap, a fed decision, and a jobs report looming, is this just the calm before the storm plus, back to work the end of six weeks of worker strikes in sight after the uaw reached a tentative deal with the last of the big three automakers so, what's next for the industry and could the union set its sights on other car companies now? and later, a burger beat sends shares of mcdonald's

higher sofi gives up nearly all of a 15% gain at the start of the day. and counting down to apple's pre-halloween launch event i'm courtney reagan in for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq first, wall street kicking off the week in rally mode the dow closing just off its highs of the day the nasdaq closing just shy of its 200-day moving average and the s&p seeing its best day in two months outperformers including amazon, netflix, and meta platforms. the bullish active come coming as traders get ready for the fed decision what's behind the burst of confidence i was looking through the sats the dow cracking its first positive day in four, the nasdaq down, though, three weeks in a row, could be the third negative month in a row for the major averages, but today was a bright

spot >> i'm not sure if it's confidence of false bravado. they are all down 10% in corrective territory for you not to be step negative and participating is somewhat of a fool's errand. i think i see this from the other side of the coin i think we have started to see a bit of correction. mike wilson had a great note out today, seeing some of the uprevisions waning you are starting to see some of the undertones of more conservative fed start to play through. i think you are starting to see soom of the cracks with the consumer with that said, it's not right for us to expect this to be a precipitous fall down to the left so, you are going to see pockets where you are going to find civility. but last week, we were saying, listen, the markets have been able to hold 4300, that's a key n technical indicator. that's probably going to be offering some resistance from the top. i would be careful before i would be willing to jump back in with both feet, but down 10% in a market where we are still

seeing robust economic data, you want to take this opportunity to at least put some chips on the table, but start to average it >> yeah, karen, i mean, in that mike wilson note, he said the strength and the headline labor data fmasks what the fed can't address proactivity. what do you make of that >> if the economy slows, is that good for the market? right? maybe, because twhat takes the fed out of the equation, and i think there would be a knee-jerk reaction so, if the economy slows, though, does that mean that companies won't earn what we think they will earn yes? maybe that, as well. who knows which of those weighs more i kind of think the fed being done weighs more, but i don't know i think the other thing we saw, i don't know if we'll get to it later or not, the refunding announcement, which was fine which was fine last time, it was not fine it was huge. and that was scary so, fine is good there was a couple -- altogether l

another leg up when that came out. so, it seems so overdone this is a really nice rally, but it only takes us back to thursday at 11:00 a.m. >> good point. >> so, you know, i try not to get too hopped up on it, but i also think things, that meta reaction to the earnings was -- i didn't understand it at all. i didn't understand why, you know, united rentals, the reaction to that earnings release, finally at the end of the call, it started to trade up i think it's overdone negative sentiment that is starting to lift a little bit. >> is any part of that that we're here in october and this month is a bit of a scary month ending, seasonality play a part here >> this is very similar to late 2021, okay when the rates were still really low, the fed said to battle inflation, they are going to start raising interest rates and we had some of the highest valuation stuff, the stuff that didn't make money, the most speculative stuff in the market sold off and we were still making highs in the first week of january 2022 my point here is, what's gone on

for the better part of last three to six months is most of the, like, the stock market has been trading very, very poorly, you know and we've had a handful of names that have been doing all the heavy lifting and the market, you know, cap weighed indices and under the surface, it's been really bad the small caps have not been great. i'm looking at utilities, real estate, consumer staples, health care, financials, industries, energy, they're all down on the year if you are still clinging to that 8.5% rally that is s&p is up, it's in about ten names. if you think the ten names are the stock market, then they're not telling you what's going on, at least the way i see the equity markets, what they are saying about what's going on in the economy right now. so, to me, i think that a lot of the data we're seeing as it relates to jobs and we're going to get that october jobs report on friday. we have a 3.8% unemployment level that is very near 40-year lows that is masking other stuff that's going on in the economy i'm not sure how meta or some of

the stocks are related, you know, reacted towards their earnings and the guidance. most stocks are not acting particularly well relative to their earnings and guidance right now, no matter what it is. i think expectations over the last nine months have gotten way too high relative to where the economy is and where rates are i think a lot of what's going on makes a lot of sense, i think there's a good chance the s&p gives all of these gains up on the year it will be hard for the nasdaq to we would have the big names, they would really have to be some disasters out there and i don't think those are lurking right now. it will take some degradation to the gheeconomy. >> guy, i mean, just thinking about levels here, oppenheimer is cutting their 2023 year-end forecast 4,400 from 4,900.

does that feel right to you from what we now know >> feels a little high, but okay, i'll give 4,400. i think 4,900 was a pipe dream thank you for being here and bonawyn's point about 4200, which was support, now becomes resistance if we get there we're 30 handles or so away. it all makes sense unfortunately, and we're tasked to talk about the markets through the lens of the market a lot of people sort of set up for something potentially disastrous over the weekend to happen in the middle east. thank god that didn't happen but i think to a certain extent, there's some short covering on the back of that month-end is tomorrow. a lot of things set up for this move higher. but to your point, it gets us back to where we were a couple days ago i don't think necessarily anything's changed i think yields continue to go higher, we've talked about the bank of japan, they continue to move the goal post they will make rates go higher in the united states and higher rates here are not supportive of the equity market, i don't think. >> make a good point of what's going on with the war in israel, of course, and there's been focus of what's going on in the

energy market. wti off 9% this month, bonawyn what should we read into that, and how do we see that as a signal or not of what's going on in the broader economy, as we're trying to wait and see if the fed will do what we think it will do this week? >> i think the underlying theme is our sensitivity to volatility and i think what you've seen from -- i'll take wti and then xle. wti is geopolitical risk and supply/demand imbalance. with xle, there was a shift in leadership out of the more frothy names you had outperformance there for a time but you saw the same thing with real estate, for example, and then you started to see that roll over as mortgage rates climb higher and we talked about the supply/demand imbalance in housing. we have a more restrictive mon tar policy, means that we're more sensitive now to underlying volatility shots for that it to be the vix or commodity prices or interest rates, i think that's the

commonality or common theme that i see bearing itself out >> i can't believe we've actually gone in long and we haven't brought up the yield on the ten-year, karen. how do we even handicap it from here, where we go, when do we care, when do we not >> well, i guess we'll get more news on wednesday, what they're going to sell, and to the extent that they sell further out, right, so, the ten could be under more pressure. so, i think this is -- i don't know, maybe a little bit of positioning on the expectation of more tens and 20s and 30s to be sold. i think. i don't exactly know, but that's the way i'm sort of positioned i have a little bit left of short tlt, and -- i think it's interesting, because this -- this is something we never used to pay attention to before, and now it's become so central, the idea of, oh, my god, there's just too many, between qt and,

you know, what the treasury needs to issue, there's just too many bonds to be absorbed, and so, i think we'll see that higher, which -- the only positive, it does the fed's work for them, right? >> right >> so, we come back to full circle again, what's the fed going to do, right and the market wants to hear they're done >> right where we started this conversation a time to bring in steve liesman. the treasury department expected to raise slightly less than the current quarter than it did in the third quarter. so, let's bring in steve liesman. and tell white house you've learned, steve, and what does it mean >> i thought it was interesting that karen said it was fine. i guess you could argue that in the october to december quarter, they're going to be issuing $776 billion of debt, and the good news is, that's quite a bit below the number they had, by $76 billion, they estimated in july, and then they said, $816 billion in the next

quarter, so, i guess it's fine that it's less than we thought it was, but it's hard to argue that it's fine that we're issuing $1.6 trillion of debt over a two-quarter period in the first half of the fiscal year. i don't think that is fine, and it's unclear whether or not we ever quite reach a top or where we find that top in the five-year, so long as it's unclear that we have a handle on what's going on with revenue and spending in this country we did apparently get something of a boost in revenue from d deferred taxes in california, some other states also did that. the irs also, because of some disaster relief that was provided, so, that tax money came in, but still, we have this lack of con grewty between the groth numbers which seem to be pretty strong, but the revenue numbers are not coming in, which

raises the question, is the growth really that strong or is the revenue yet to come? >> steve, it's karen so couple things first of all, fine, it's all just relative to expectations. that's all -- >> absolutely. >> that's all the fine refers to >> i understand. i understand >> so, what about, to that revenue question, is it capital gains that are missing where is the -- how does that jive with this gdp number that was so hot >> yes, well, your question is absolutely fine, because it's right on target in the sense that it was capital gains that was the big miss, in other words, we talk about what happened in the summer, and how the market was kind of surprised by the huge surge in issuance. well, that's because, i think capital gains were something like a half a trillion dollars below estimate, in part because the market has been what the market has been, and that means capital gains taxes are not what they were expecting. we don't know what they're thinking right now we might get some more information on that shortly, and

we don't know what is the revenue. but it may be, this gdp number, got a friend of mine in the business who said friends don't let friends use gdp numbers. especially the quarterly numbers. a 4.9%, i have -- i think that's overstated i think it's likely to be stronger than had been expected, certainly, because we were looking for below 1%, but look, if the economy is growing at least above potential, we should have better revenue numbers and hopefully those will start to come in. and hopefully between jan element yellen and president biden, they'll start to realize that the market is sending them a very plain message that you need to somehow give us some guidance, that finfinity is not number >> i know you saw the comments about treasury and how, the worst mistakes they've made since alexander hamilton, and i

guess some of it is monday morning quarterback. i don't know if there would have been demand for a 50-year bond or a 100-year bond but speak to that. would they have been able to do it at that time, do you think there would have been the demand to sort of float those things? >> you know, obviously great suspect respect for stan i can only come back and tell you what treasury policy has been, having covered it for, i don't know, five or six administrations now. and the mantra they tell you, they want to be reliable and predictable. and if they come in and game the market and start issuing longer term debt, because longer term rates are low, the market tends to think that all of a sudden the treasury's going to time it and playing games with it. so, what you -- what you see, guy, is that the treasury tries to issue the same percentage about more or less of each tenor pretty equally

now, sometimes it will raise a little bit, the average duration, or lower it a little bit, but that's within a very small margin stan is, of course, mathematically and financially right, at least over a short-term period, but those who agree with treasury policy say over the long-term, you maintain the trust of the market by by reliable and predictable >> steve, before we let you go, big fed meeting this week, i think we all think we know what is going to happen anything that's changed in the last, i don't know, day or so, that you think we should be paying attention to? because karen says it all really comes back around to the fed >> well, just be still my beating heart they are going to have paused for two meetings in a row, which they haven't done since early 2022, and i think we're going to hear how much reliance they have on what you guys were talking about, which is the ten-year treasury, how much that will matter. and i think wie e're going to hr how much reliance they're having on the forecast that things are

going to slow. the fed says its data dependent. well, darn, if it is, it should be hiking right now, right 4.9% gdp growth, 3.7% inflation, it should be hiking. in fact, it's not quite as data-dependent as in the sense it's relying on a forecast that high bond yields, student debt loan payments, reduced savings and all the things we talk about all the time are going to be reducing growth in the coming quarters along with the lags of monetary policy. so, it is letting it ride for a bit. and if inflation doesn't come down, we may be talking about the fed hiking again >> interesting stuff, steve. we're all waiting, of course, for those details when we get them later this week thank you very much. have a good evening. >> pleasure. >> let's trade this, guys. karen, fine, i understand fine as an expectation. >> versus expectations, yes. >> anything else there that steve said helps you elaborate on the waiting for the fed idea,

everything else you want to understand about, you know, i guess the moves they could make -- i think it's so interesting, yes, they're data dependent, are they? look at the retail sales number. >> you can choose all kinds of things >> pick your owne adventure >> yeah, mortgage prices, mortgage rates, you can choose all kinds of things. i think it's pr 's prudent for o wait it's not like we think when powell says he's hawkish, we shouldn't believe him -- we believe him. he can absolutely be hawkish but i think it is the right thing for them to do to just pause and it doesn't mean they have to take any options off the table. >> yeah, as an eck by you the investor, if you are looking for a buy point, it makes it very difficult, because at this point, to me, higher for longer is the thing that weighs on the economy. it's a thing that weighs on equity valuations. it weighs on a lot of things that, you know, the idea and guy's been saying this for a very long time if they started cutting interest

rates, it' be is because someth is not good going on back in 2018 , normalizing rate, and what happened to the stock market it got to 2.5% on fed funds, the ten-year got to 3% and the stock market went down 20% in a straight line. and the last couple of times, we saw really aggressive fed hiking was 2000, into that high, it was 2007, into that high and so, when you think about it, the stock market doesn't really have a great track record, at least over the last 25 years or so, when the fed is done hiking rates, it is actually not a great time to buy equities that's just been the case. and, you know, you could say in 2019 they kept on hiking into that, and you could say that the stock -- >> '94 >> you know, i was in college, babes. i'm just -- >> there's data that exists before you -- >> understood, but in '94,

literally, when fed chair gr greenspan talked about irrational exuberance -- >> look what happened to the market >> yeah, but that was one of the most abnormally, like, you know -- yes, the s&p rallied 30% a year for the next five years until it crashed and then we had a three-year bear market and we had one of the deep egest recessions in a y long time. i don't think fed chair powell wants that so, that's one of the reasons higher for longer could really crimp growth and could also make investing in equities not a great time right now we are basically, what, 4800 was the all-time high, we're 4160 or something like that right now. s&p, you know, right now as far as valuations, a period that doesn't make it that interesting with interest rates right here >> let me just say one last thing, the market is not a monolith there are things that have not, you know, you talk about the magnificent seven all the time, who have been doing all of the

heavy lifting, there's a lot of things that are really not expensive. and so, i think that -- >> really not expensive but might be value traps >> they might be >> the way they're acting, the economy is not as good as 3.8% and the unemplmroimentunemploymt it's telling you that, to me, it's telling me that interest rates higher for longer, because we are about to go into a stagflationary period, does not make equities that particularly attractive to 18 times forward the ten-year average, when interest rates were much lower so, to me, when you say that, the market's not a monolith, i get all that, but the things that i'm looking at, small caps, you know, a whole host of other things, they just don't trade well they are saying something. there's a big disconnect between the ten stocks and the other 490 in the s&p 500 >> "fast money" will help you understand what they're saying. coming up, shares of pinterest, wolfspeed and lattice semi. plus, a sofi stumble

shares popping after a latest earnings report, but ending the day barely in the green. so, what made those gains fizzle we'll dig into the aioctn when "fast money" returnsse to yo i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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pinterest shares surging after a beat on top and bottom lines guidance coming in slightly above expectations that conference call just getting under way. julia boorstin has more for us >> pinterest beating on the top and bottom line. revenue accelerated to 11% growth rate. the company guided to fourth quarter revenue growth in a range with a midpoint ahead of the street consensus now, as for those concerns raised by snap and meta about the fourth quarter, saying that fourth quarter add spending could be affected by the war in the middle east, pin tterest saying some advertisers paused spend, but most of them have returned but he stressed he did think they are well positioned he said the company's new focus

on shopping was key, and that the impact of a.i. was important. he noted the potential for generative a.i. to make better ads. he also said that while the soonl pa amazon partnership is going better than expected, the full impact of that amazon deal won't be felt in 2024. i will have an exclusive interview with pinterest ceo bill ready, that's tomorrow in the 11:00 a.m. eastern hour of "squawk on the street. courtney >> thank you very much, julia. we'll be watching for that tomorrow guy, that's a pretty big jump. >> it absolutely should. revenue up 11% year over year. global monthly average users up 8% year over year and arpu up 3% year over year valuation-wise, it's still compelling there's, you know, they have people in the stock now, there are activists in the stock we talked about this for the better part of a year and a half i think the stock has room to the upside >> what's interesting, though, great balance sheet. going to go to gap profitability next year.

77% gross margin and when you start talking about j generative a.i. helping their ad business that, to me, means greater monetization of those users, so, higher arpu, so, yeah, the stock sold off pretty significantly over the last couple weeks, i think it was down maybe 15%, 20%, something like that, to up 13% is getting some of that back. they had a good analyst day. so, this is a decent little story in the digital ad space. >> i thought there could be a lot of room to run to really monetize some of those ads and so, it will be interesting to see what generative a.i. does for that. another earnings alert on two chip names moving in opposite directions. kristina partsinevelos has details on wolfspeed and late does semiconductor what is going on here? >> wolfspeed popping 10%, though the company missed q-1 revenue estimates. the upbeat focus was on the smaller than expected loss for the first quarter, as well as the smaller than expected loss per share guidance for the second quarter i should say shares are up 11%

wolfspeed also warned, they are incurring, quote, significant startup costs. many of which you're seeing a facility in north carolina, they're not generating revenue just yet, so, it is hitting operating margins. investors were bracing for the worst, given competitors earlie this morning and there's the weakness in europe p separately, lattice is down about do-- over 15% right now. the company makes programmable chips and posted a q-4 guidance that came in much lower than the street anticipated a similar thing we saw with texas instruments, as well intel's programmable chip business showed a slowdown both companies could set a more negative tone for amd's business, which also competes with these programmable chips and those earnings are out tomorrow >> fascinating stuff, kristina really have to understand the nuances with all of these --

>> yeah, there are so many names and titles, but the underlying theme is that some of the guidance is a little bit lower and that's concerning for the entire sector. >> got it. thank you very much for helping make sense of it all and the chart's going in lots of different directions, depending on the nuances karen, you were interested in the chip names ahead of the show >> she was up here just hanging out which is nice to see her, and it's the automotive, but particularly ev, which will play into dan's, you know, dan's been on the tesla bear case for a long, long time. it is -- so they also talked about industrial, and i don't know what the industrial x auto means, if it's manufacturing, i'm not quite sure but i mean, that does -- guidance numbers were really, really disappointing >> yeah, stock feels the same way. bonawyn, what do you think about some of these chip names that aren't the nvidias of the world? you think there's any play here?

>> yeah, be in nvidia. but even that suffered as of late i tend to echo karen's sentiments, particularly with on and i think that is a direct read-through into the ev space she mentioned the trade out of gm, and you are starting to see it play out in other parts when you see it vertically across the manufacturing spectrum, i think it's kind of telling you something, and to me it's slightly concerning >> got it. okay, well, there's a lot more "fast money" still to come. here's what's coming up next. a big sign for sofi. shares initially soaring after a massive revenue beat, but losing momentum in a big way. what was behind the reversal and does it signal more danger ahead? the traders are leaning into the student lender next. plus, all things auto. the latest on the uaw's deal with gm, and the electric slide in tesla buckle up. we're driving straight into those trades ahead you're watching "fast money,"

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welcome back to "fast money. roller coaster ride for sofi today. shares rallying nearly 15% this morning, but then retreated to close the day just 1% higher the fintech company raised its full-year outlook and adjusted earnings, saying it expects to post a profit in the kwourt quarter. then, in the conference call, the ceo said the company is still losing quite a bit of money on its credit card offering and investment. dan what do you make of this one? >> last quarter, as, big numbers, i think a lot of investors were excited about student loans being repaid, and the revenue that is associated

with that, and their ability to kind of sell other products in and around that, but on that conference call, they mentioned they're seeing tremendous demand for unsecured loans from higher credit scores, and that might be servicing something maybe where the banks have kind of moved away from some of this business, and that's the lane i think these guys want to be in the fact they're still in the credit card, they're still in the investing makes some sense, because they want to broaden out this offering. as they'rir top of the funnel i refinancing your student loan, that's why you go to sofi, but they have the other products last quarter, stop gapped up, fill in the gap within a few days so, it seems like there's still overhang still investors in this thing that might be been around for a long time. investors looked for any opportunity on a big up day to sell so, the stock ended up having a nice rally, i think sbooshgs this print, and give it all back, so, just keep focused on the things they will, i guess, are pointing to, that sound interesting, but fintech in general in the public market is

not doing particularly well. >> no, it's not. bonawyn? >> i certainly echo that last point. fintech just -- where the valuations are coming from and this stock is up 50%, 55%, something like that, year to date so, i think -- and then, you know, karen and i were discussing early, just shy of 14% short interest so, there is that overhang there. so, i am surprised to see essentially a 13%, 14% reversal, particularly when they're saying that, i believe, 67% of growth came from their nonlending business, so, they are diversifying away from what they are historically known for, but they are also spending a lot of marketing dollars trying to shore up brand awareness i think it's a long-term play. i would like to see if it holds a level. but it's in a trading range here long-term, i am quite bullish. i think right now in this environment, it's a challenging sector to be in altogether. coming up, we're kicking the tires on the auto trade. the latest developments on the uaw strike, and if the tentative deal with gm can put the

industry strike in the rear view. and a rough day for tesla. that stock heading downhill and just like the song, one of our traders thinks the electric slide will keep going and going. more on that when "fast money" tus.rern the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "fast money. stocks rallying to kick off the week, as investors looked ahead to a fed decision and friday's job report the dow jumping 500 points, the best day since june. the s&p and nasdaq up more than 1% and some more afterhours movers to show you. shares of chegg lower despite beating on the top and bottom lines. and retailer vf corp also dropping after an earnings miss. they are down by 6% and 5%. g m bouncing off a three-year low to close up a half a percent the move coming after the automaker became the latest of the big three to reach a deal with the uaw, paving the way for the end of a six-week long worker strike. phil lebeau joins us hopefully he doesn't want to strike phil, thank you for being here >> never fun to cover a uaw strike i've covered them before, hopefully i don't have to cover tier many in the future, as well let me go over what is really important for investors. when you look at the cost of

this contract, in terms of the labor costs for vehicles, wolf research did some crunching of the numbers and look at this comparison, going from 2023, all the way up to what they estimate the cost will be per vehicle in terms of labor costs per vehicle by 2027. roughly speaking, anywhere of an increase between $800 and $1,100 this is still aboutestimate. we still need to see the final details. but this gives you a sense of what the big three are facing in terms of higher costs. i bring that up, because remember, before this all started, we talked about their all-in hourly labor costs coming in at $64, $66 an hour, relative to the foreign all toe makers who are at $55 to 60s$60, tesla $45. generally speaking, most believe that when it's all said and done, it's going to be anywhere between $87 and $89 an hour for the big three once this contract is done. and that's benefits, that's

everything that's not just hourly wages you look at the auto stocks, talking about general motors, couple things to keep in mind, we heard from gm, officially confirming what we've been reporting all day, they have an agreement in place with the uaw. mary barra says it's good to have it in place, now it's time to get back to work. and then when you look at shares of stellantis, there's an important distinction with stellantis to keep in mind they have agreed to reopen their plant outside of rockford, illinois that is significant, because it's not often that you see a uaw contract where an automaker says, okay, we will reopen a facility sometimes they talked about closing a facility and they don't close it, but reopening a facility that's been idled, that doesn't happen very often. and finally in regard to ford, in the last half hour, we heard from the credit ratings upped on ford, more stable outwlook going from stable to positive, i

should say following this contract being locked in place with the uaw between ford and the union. guys, back to you. >> wow a lot of stuff going on there, phil, thank you very much for rounding it all up let's trade this one dan, really interesting, the labor costs, too, when phil put up that wall tesla all the way down at $45 an hour compared to $87 to $89. >> andthe big story this year, the degradation in their automotive gross margins at tesla. all that math, you just do the math so, the margins are going to be lower for gm and ford, going to make it that much more hard to service all that debt they have. make it harder to compete with, let's say, you know, a tesla, that actually has this great market share here in north america, right and they seem to be pretty good at making evs. but the story about tesla today, down as much as it is, i think there's a host of things going on the stuff we talked about in semis, the battery front, panasonic, the guidance they gave how is the uaw not going to go

after that tesla worker there? you put all that together, and you say to yourself, oh, well, the bulls on tesla think this is going to have a reversal and they're going to expand those margins back out when they kind of get their manufacturing back online and all the stuff, fsd, you know, it's all a pipe dream, man. this stock is going lower because the fundamentals are bad. there's not demand for their products, even at the prices, after six -- there's plenty of demand, but to justify a $600 billion market cap company so, that's my take here. i just think all of this has come together at tesla at one time and listen, i think ford and gm, part of my bear case, they're going to be strong competitors, they are proving not to be but tesla's come in line with them over the last few months. >> karen, you were talking about tesla earlier. >> yeah, sort of a convergence of a bunch of things the california lawsuit, i don't know if it's much on its own, but potential labor threat that is huge.

precisely why dan's talking about the gross margin coming in a lot, and, you know, garners a multiple that the other companies could never dream of having anything remotely close to that. and so also, the consumer is really strapped and just ev in general, demand goes down, regardless whether it's from tesla, i agree with you on gm and ford not getting it together or any other competitor, really, yet. that's been disappointing. i had to throw in the towel for gm >> okay. well, coming up, we're counting down to apple's scary fast event tonight will this be a trick or treat for investors? a preview and trade ahead. but first, mcdonald's shares sizzling we'll dig into their qrtuaer next stick around more "fast money" in two with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of mcdonald's topping the tape after an earnings beat this morning. price hikes offsetting a slowdown in traffic. the company gaining share among middle and high income customers, suggesting those diners are looking to trade down bonawyn, what's your take on the golden arches here when i first heard that, i was like, oh, is that a warning sign for economy? >> yeah, well, this is the m in my calm trade and i've calmly

watched the stock do nothing but it was actually part of a thesis, that i was much more bearish than it's played out and i wanted names that i thought were going to hold up well in an adverse situation. i still am bullish the name. so, yes, there was a slowdown in foot traffic with the lowest end consumer, but i'm expecting a tradedown from that high and medium end consumer. and then you look at the digital ad -- sorry, the digital sales, they were some $9 billion up from $7 billion the previous quarter. you are starting to see that push if you remember, karen's domino's pizza, they saw a similar flight path when they made that push into alternative waves -- >> that wasn't mine, but thank you. >> more efficient ways, essentially, to service customers. i'm saying a lot of similarities here, but again, i continue to think the consumer is going to be challenged and these are the names i want to be in. >> you're in mcdonald's now, but not buying more? >> i mean, you can buy more, but i don't think it's a compelling reason it's one of those names -- it's going to be a bellwether in the

storm. >> what do you think >> 100%. the selloff we've seen over the last couple weeks or last couple months, we've seen before over the last few years it has happened before that said, margins, you know, the margin improvement they saw for mcdonald's, that's significant. good for them. and if you look at foot traffic, comps are up 8%. i mean, that's very good compared to what the street was looking for. valuation is rich, but it's always been rich i think you can own this stock, especially since it sold off from $300 to $255. all right, well, coming up, apple hopping in on pre-halloween mac reveal, but will it be more trick or treat plus, a look ahead to earnings on thursday more "fast money" in two cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it)

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welcome back to "fast money. we're just about two hours away from apple's, quote, scary fast event. shares popping more than 1% today ahead of the expected mac reveal the company reports earnings on thursday let's bring in tom forte, a senior research analyst. tom, what are you expecting from this is it going to be a mac reveal are we going to be excited about it what do you think? >> so, the fact they're holding

it at 8:00 eastern the day before halloween, i think, basically says this is going to be a trick and not a treat so, what we're looking for is a faster lineup of macs. when you think of the mac lineup, it's about 10% of apple's sales. the challenge for everyone selling laptops and desktops, there was a huge pull forward in demand in the early stages of covid and you've seen a decline in units sold for two years now. so, looking for, you know, a minor announcement from apple just on the eve of halloween here >> so, what -- what should we be excited about then, what's next to come for apple is the next catalyst the stock has underperformed if this isn't going to be it, we just got the iphone announcement in september what's next >> okay, so, it's not the iphone 15 i think historically, it's relied on the iphone to drive shares higher. so, that puts entreatmental pressure on the vision pro, the ar/vr headset expected to come at the beginning of next calendar year. we don't think apple can get mass adoption for that headset

for starters, they have a $3,499 price point. consumers can get a headset from meta platforms for 500 bucks so, we look to the vision pro next >> tom, how concerned should people be around what's going on with china, with apple they banned, obviously, for government employees i mean, they are probably a whisper away from a country-wide shadow ban is that something we should be concerned about? >> it's a huge concern when you think about apple, historically, tim cook's done a great job, he's ceo by day and diplomat by night, managing the relationship between the u.s. government and the chinese government but what you're seeing now, this protectionist behavior, rising escalation between the two countries. i think apple could get caught in the middle. 20% of sales come from china, not to mention the supply chain is overdependent >> tom, thank you for being on, it's karen we often try to think about, what is the multiple here, of the services business, with the gross margin nearly twice, the

products business, got to pick a blended multiple where do you come out on this? >> so, i think you can make an argument for, you know, as high as i guess mid teens, to the extent, as you pointed out, you are seeing incredital revenue from the higher margin services for apple. they have negative revenue growth for this fiscal quarter should once again have positive revenue growth next year partly because what was as much as ten percentage point headwin is now going to go away, so, mid-teens multiple for apple, but i still think there's, you know, downside risk from where we're trading today. >> tom, thank you very much for being here we'll see what plays out and how scary it is, if it really is a trick or a treat thank you very much. all right, let's trade this. bonawyn, what do you make of shares of apple here they certainly, the shine has come off a little. >> yeah, i wouldn't be surprised if it trades down 160. karen makes a good point about the multiple honestly, trying to read into

china, i think, your guess is as good as mine i do think it should be handicapped to an extent for that reason, but it's really the services if i see any cracks whatsoever in that segment, i'm pulling the rip cord but i would probably be looking at 160 before it got interesting to me. >> dan >> yeah, china was a real problem for tesla, and they have lots of similar problems from a manufacturing standpoint, from access to their consumer, just generally some of the nationalistic tendencies you might see from consumers some of the data coming out, september was down 6% year over year for the iphone 14 to the 15, i think on the quarter, some of the estimates are down, they might be down 4% so, you know, when i think about apple, i say to myself, china is a huge problem for apple especially as that de-emphasize manufacturing there, this is the first iphone that's ever shipped from india the reshoring to vietnam and some of these other places is going to cost more, going to put pressure on the gross margins. so, i expect -- and gene munster mentions this, one of the first

things they talk about is the install base of ios. they really want people to focus more on what the blended multiple might be for services and to continue to grow that install base, that means hopefully you're going to ge more services. services is a business that's kind of con trained in china, when you think about access to the fire wall there and everything like that so, to me, china is very important, all that being said, it's down 15% on the print it could have an amazon response, maybe a bit of a bounce, but i would be a seller. tim's been saying 150 to the downside >> karen >> i'm very lukewarm on it i have a tiny position, just to force me to focus on it. but i have way more amazon, google, meta, netflix, so, not that optimistic. >> all right well, up next, your final trade.

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♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. it's time for the final trade. let's go around the horn bonawyn, you get to go first >> i'm sticking with mcdonald's. i think you are seeing what you need to see from that company. >> karen >> yes, i'm sticking with the last of my tlt short, cover it on wednesday after we hear from the treasury >> dan >> pins.

nothing not to like. i wouldn't be buying it up 10%, but on the pull back >> and guy >> rangers in winnipeg looking to sweep a five-game road trip first time in quite some time, courtney, as you know. chevron. >> thank you very much for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. to sweep a road trip. first time in some time. chevron, overdone. >> thank you very much for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom or tweet me @jimcramer. after just a terrific da