it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." wall street capping off the worst year front and center for investors today, the start of the two-day policy meeting we talk to steven whiting. and the fed is not the only game in town as the bank of japan makes its headlines and ones that could be bad news for u.s. stocks. and tesla having one of the

worst days in weeks. and apple with the semiconductor refresh. it is tuesday, october 31st, halloween, and areyou are watchg "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning h welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's look at the final trading day. futures in the green the dpow would open up more than 100 points at this time. the nasdaq with big gains as well as the s&p. a different picture for the month with the averages on track for three h-month losing streak. all this with the fed decision tomorrow with the majority of traders expecting the central bank to keep interest rates

unch unchanged. ahead of that, we look at the bond market. the ten-year yield at 4.82%. we want to check the energy market we start with oil. wti up over 1% natural gas is up 1.5% in the early hours rs right now. let's see how europe is trading up with joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom with the action for the month and this morning joumanna, good morning >> good morning, frank the stock market is doing okay for europe we are seeing patching of green across the stoxx 600 it is the last day of the month and we would take a lookback a how october was and let me tell you it was an october to forget. third negative nmonth in a roro.

ftse 100 is down 3.3% for the month. a lot of focus on the uk banking stocks the worst stock within the ftse 100 is accado. cac 40 is down 3.6%. lvmh down 6% and renault is down 14% as automakers came under pressure with the competition from china dax is down 3% the worst is siemens is down with the wind energy falling and the swiss index with the focus is down 5.3%

the drug manufacturing seeing a lot of issues with the departure of the ce ouo. this is the picture for auto makean -- automakers. mercedes-benz cut the margin outlook a couple of days ago uk bank with the picture across the sector all trading in the red a weak and -- a week and month to forget. frank. >> thank you, joumanna bercetche. let's dive deeper with vince from cloud capital >> good morning, frank >> we have talked about the losing streak for stocks down for the month. how do you attribute that for the season or higher rates

>> i think it is a combination higher rate environment is putting pressure on stocks and bonds. it is not just the month which is tough for capital markets it is where it was in april of 2021 two and a half years ago this is a difficult part of the cycle. we are late cycle. the economic growth level is slowing. the fed has increased rates a bit. >> you said the economic cycle is slowing down. we are just about halfway through looking at the first year over year gain since q3 of 2022 at the same time, we have big market voices. mike wilson and kalanovic saying the estimates are too high should we enjoy the earnings gains so far >> they are answering that question with the stocks to

earnings that is thais unusual the management companies project more challenging times ahead the stock market is taking note of that and investors sudhould s well >> just in all fairness, this is reversal for mike wilson he started the year bearish and two weeks ago, he thought there would be a year-end rally. some things have changed does the year-end rally seem unlikely at this point >> year-end rally, we are talking two months that sis a difficult time horizon. it is fair to acknowledge for strategists and investors. this is a really difficult time in the capital market cycle. we're late stage the fed had the dramatic move. everybody trying to deal with qt

now. if you can assume qe and lower rates are stimulative on the way up, means it is fair to assume we will have response in equities when qt sets in that's what we're seeing >> today is day one of the fed meeting. tomorrow is the decision what are your thoughts about the fed? do you believe we will see a pause? is it a hawkish pause? >> yes, frank. a lot of people will focus on the body language and narrative around that. our view is rates are about what with the fed wants them. they will monitor the data and what might get really interesting if things break in the capital markets and we get selloff in the credit decline as is, that means the fed will have

to reverse course. there is a lot of debt on the u.s. balance sheets. boomers are retiring we have a lot of technology which is being implemented and integrated through the capital markets. it could be a surprise a year from now with the fed reversing course because of the tightening path have worn out in the economy. we are seeing that with consumer dur durables >> thank you so much for being here time for the check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. >> frank, good morning shares of tesla set to extend losses after closing at the lowest level in five months. shares lost 5% yesterday on news from japanese battery maker panasonic that it will with cut down on battery production citing falling sales of teslas

panasonic is a battery supplier for tesla. the s.e.c. suing solarwinds. a software company hit by russian hackers three years ago. it defrauded shareholders and abilities to withstand a breach. company hlawyers say the s.e.c. is trying to appoint itself as the cybersecurity police for companies and overreaching into the complex area should alarm all public companies. bank of japan is out with the latest policy decision keeping rates unchanged, but tweaking the yield control policy to allow the ten-year bond yield to float at or above the 1% mark. yields on the benchmark note are cor currently sitting at the highest in a decade while the yen falls against the u.s. dollar.

>> thank you, silvana. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word to know today. apple out with the laptop shakeup in the scary fast event last night was it enough to move the needle for investors? apple not the only ones, why the fortunes in china could be impossible jeopardy. and the slip spots in the north base have vf corp shares sinking ahead of the open. we have more ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is.

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welcome back apple revealing new macbook pros and imac with new chips to power them they were shown off in the online event the 14 inch pro starts at $1,600 the 16 inch model starts at

$2,500 joining me now is dan who writes the column for macworld. dan, good morning. >> good morning. >> unusual for apple to have an event in the evening time. what is the big take >> my take is the m3 generation of trchips. we have seen they like to disburse these chips throughout the lineup it sets the stage for where apple is heading in the next year with the process. >> assess the stage for apple. look at the stock in the pre-market and it is in the red right now. investors did not love it. what do you think investors are responding to? >> i think some of it is this might seem like a little bit of

an underunderwhelming event. the mac is a smaller part of it and people are looking for pizzazz to it. there is more going on than what people get at the surface level. >> i want to talk about the lineup it appears to be focused on professional users and artists and software designers one thing like you are noting the $1,300 macbook air, but replaced the pro by $300 if you have a product people like, why eliminate that and lower the price on the higher end version? >> the macbook pro was a

holdover it had old technology and old design it had technology with the touch bar that was not used by any other computer on the market i think what they are trying to do is push people toward something that is more modern in the pro. it does have a higher price, but the technology it is bringing with it is more powerful than what came before it is really targeting the power users and people who want to use a high level machine >> let's talk about a.i. apple was talking about the neuro engine what does that mean for future products >> it is part of the apple architecture focused on machine learning and anything artificial intelligence related they beefed up the m 3 architecture that points to the idea that apple realizes that a.i. is increasingly important to them going forward.

there is a lot of talk of generative a.i. products, but the fact they can build the hardware and tune it will would be a potential for them. >> something we have to watch. apple the shares in the red at the moment thank you. huawei is introducing a smartphone for the chinese market where apple has 20% of the revenue. eunice yoon is joining us from beijing with the details >> reporter: frank, huawei's phone is targeted at young consumers. it costs $270. it is marketed here as good for gamers with high-end cameras and storage and bright screen and fast charging. as what they are describing as the perfect entrance ticket to

the huawei ecosystem unlike the 60 series, this is openly badged as 4g. what is interesting, frank, there has already been a lot of buzz of the next version of the phone and it will use the 9,000 s chip which has been clocked at 5g speeds despite u.s. restrictions that nova 12 is supposed to be out by the end of the year >> eunice, apple generates revenue from china how big is this huawei phone over the apple >> reporter: it is not a direct threat to the iphone 15, but targeted at budget consumers this is not targeted to the same audience at the same time, what is interesting is how the phone is marketed because one of thing

big problems for huawei as well as the chinese is they don't want to switch to a new ecosystem because it is too much of a challenge what you are seeing is huawei is trying to say this is a starter phone for huawei's ecosystem just give it a try making it more palatable >> they came up with the foldable phones that were cool this one is a starter phone. something we have to watch eunice yoon, thank you coming up on "worldwide exchange," how pinterest avoided the post stock drop which had meta and alphabet. we have the big money movers coming up after this ♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the big money movers. three stock stories of the

morning. pinterest shares up 16% ahead of the open after beating on the top and bottom line. the stock is getting help from ceo bill ready staying silent on ad spending. shares of vf corp out with a string of troubling news for investors in the latest earnings among them, with ddrawing guiane and lowering the dividend. here is the company ceo on "mad money" last night. >> $300 million restructuring and reduce the cost and reinvest back into innovation and brand building we will lower our debt >> shares of vf corp down t8%.

and shares of lattice semiconductor will expect fourth quarter revenue coming in at $166 million and $186 million. analysts were looking for $196 million. those shares down more than 17%. let's check on the headlines with nbc's frances rivera in new york with the latest >> good morning, frank we start this morning with news from the biden administration. the white house taking new steps to address hate on college campuses the biden administration told nbc news that the doj will provide resources to schools including helping them track and assess credible online threats also, the biden administration is having this come amid the rise of anti-semitic incidents with the israel and hamas war. and mike johnson and house

republicans introduced a bill monday which would set $14 billion in funding to israel and slashing the same amount allotted as last year. republicans are trying to help the wealthy cheat on taxes. the cast of "friends" paying tribute to matthew perry saying we are utterly devastated by the death of matthew. we are family. perry was 54 years old frank, back to you >> frances rivera live in new york thank you. as we head to break, we he have the big consumer stat $700 that is how much american families respecare spending on care each month. child care payments are up 30% since 2019 that is according to the bank's internal data. we will see if the fed decision tomorrow will add to the

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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area more ahead here on "worldwide exchange." bears out in full force. wall street wraps up the worst month of the year. what morgan stanley and rbc are saying about the months ahead. investors attention turns to the fed with the central bank kicking off the policy meeting how you should position your portfolio ahead of tomorrow's decision and the fed is not only game in town. what the bank of japan did which could push yields to new highs it is tuesday, october 31st, halloween halloween, and aryou r watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back i'm frank holland. let's start your day with the

half hour check on the u.s. stock futures on this final trading day of october futures are mixed right now. the dow off the highs and opening up 70 points higher. important to note that the nasdaq turning negative in the last half hour stocks coming off the best day in months. that is doing little to avoid three straight months of losses. you are seeing the declines in october here keeping the bear sentiment alive this morning we have a noteto clients f absent rate cuts from central banks, we see restrictive monetary policy still ahead.

and his comments echoed by mike wilson he said the chances of the fourth quarter rally is not strong enough to get u.s. equity market out of the malaise. take a look at the ten-year yield at 4.84% the two-year yield above 5%. that is the set up for the u.s. markets. that brings us to the top story. the federal reserve kicking off the latest policy meeting with the interest rate decision due out tomorrow as of this morning, there is an overwhelming amount of traders betting on a pause there is still december to consider joining me now is chief investment strategist at citi global health. wealth. >> good morning.

>> is it a hawkish pause what about december? >> every pause at this stage is a hawkish one. powell is not ruling out further tightening and monetary policy keeping that uncertainty alive is communicating a sense of restraint. qt is still ongoing. at the same time, i think you will see next year is as a year of progress. you look at housing price measures in the cpi at 7.5% over the last 12 months this is coming down. we expect labor markets which have been in front of the economy. it will be a period in which the policy will change toward one that will be more protective than the current expansion

>> you are already into next year let's focus on december. looking at the cme tool. 75% chance of a pause in december we have a lot of market moving reports. pce on november 30th we have two more cpi reports before the december meeting. >> headline inflation is 3.7 i don't think that is going convince the fed that their policy will not bring time with patience to lower the rate they are likely to hit their target by the end of next year, not the year after if the fed is patient here, they can avoid a sharp easing cycle that is the risk we face if they shock the system it will take patience. i think most of the data we just

saw at the beginning of the fourth quarter or september data were much stronger than the trend. you take a look at the range for unemployment the last 18 months has been 105,000 to 904,000 you saw the month of september above the slowing pace we have seen going ahead >> you are focused on data what about the data we are getting from mike wilson a lot of the top wall street minds are saying the impact of the rate increases hasn't been felt does the fed pay attention to that >> i think the fed is not very worried about financial conditions they have been tightening. investors need to look at the worry in the market. they have not only come down from 10% from the intrayear high, but we are down considerably across the board since 2021

if you look at magnificent seven, they kept the global equity market from having a dip for the full year. financial conditions have tightened a lot. expectations are not in line with the consensus of 12% eps growth i think the opportunity of keeping the expansion alive for a stronger year further out is going to be good enough for financial markets. we are better positioned than before. >> better positioned the $1 trillion question i don't know the number. when do we see the cuts? >> i think this is really nuanced. monetary policy is restrictive as inflation gets closer to 2% in the coming year it is on its way employment growth keeps fading which is something we have not

truly seen yet the federal reserve will say restrictive monetary policy and faltering employment is not what they want to see if those conditions are met, and in that case, they move to the restrictive policy only in the case of just a complete collapse in the economy which i don't think we're positioned for, do they go to a radical set of easing steps. the fed will switch to the expansion. >> we could see cuts next year expecting a hawkish pause tomorrow steven, great to see you let's check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. >> frank, i'm back the testimony of sam bankman-fried now in the fourth day on the stand the disgraced ceo admitted total imme alameda research role

he knew alameda was not hedged when he approved billions of investments for the firm shares of chegg falling head of the open. the company reporting a decrease in revenue and subscription services revenue remaining optimism for the future alphabet's ceo sundar pichai defending the agreement to make the default web browser on the phone. in his testimony during the historic anti-trust trial yesterday, pichai says the company pays tens of billions to

ensure exclusivity calling it clear to fee >> silvana, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," stellantis putting a lid on the uaw strike. as we head to break, we have the top trending stories taylor swift making her wildest dreams reality the singer breaking her record for the most streamed artist in a single day in spotify history following the release of 1989 album on friday. bill gaetz tes former assist climbing up the ranks. steve ballmer growing his wealth to $115 tbillion. earning him the it spot of the top ten richest people in the world. and mcdonald's is bringing

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a market flash warren buffett selling more in byd stock. berkshire now owns less than 8% of byd. time for the morning call sheet. we begin with baird downgrading semi to neutral. it is stable for now, but the lead time suggests the supply glut that could trigger later this year. shares down .50% bernstein with coverage on riot platforms with on out perform rating bitcoin miners are evolving from unorganized to an e enterprise

model. shares down in the pre-market. we have piper sandler upgrading software from neutral to overweight and hiking price target to $125 shares unchanged in the pre-market time for the global briefing we start off with samsung with the highest quarterly profit this year. losses narrowed. samsung expects the market to rebound next year and plans to double production kcapacity stellantis reporting revenue rose 7% despite taking a hit from the uaw strike. the parent company of dodge and jeep says it impacts sales of

$3.2 billion profit is hit by less than $800 billion. china manufacturing fell in contraction this month the index slipping to 59.5%. policymakers have unveiled a series of measures since june to boost growth including cutting interest rates. the bank of japan taking a small step to unwinding the monetary policy of the past decade cnbc's martin soong outside tokyo headquarters >> reporter: good morning, frank. it seems like nothing really much happened. as you suggested, they are leaving their base rate unchanged at 0.1%. they talked about the 1% level for the japanese ten-year jgb

which used to be a hard cap and now talked about the reference cap. what is the reference cap? we talked to folks at goldman. soft cap is just a name with the boj telling the bond market if you want to change it up past 1%, feel free. 120 or 130 or 150 as some financial newspapers in tokyo have been speculating ahead of the meeting. that is a good thing giving the market more room to set rate levels here. this is not an easy thing to do for a place like japan and the bank of japan because it cornered helpful of the jgb market >> martin, we are looking at the yen. it is looking weaker after the boj decision is there likely intervention to support it >> reporter: good question, frank. the price action has been interesting. the ten-year jgb yield is up .95

that is the highest it has been in ten years watch if it goes higher from here the yen is sub-150 a slip below that after the boj decision we should be on intervention watch. six hours and no intervention yet. watch what happens with the u.s. trading hours the time goining of the boj is ahead of the fed and if the fed does nothing and that will do some of the work for the boj because it will narrow the interest rate between u.s. rates and japanese rates and support the japanese currency. the other thing we should be on watch for is what happens with that 150 level on the flip side, if there is no intervention and it doesn't get a list from the fed, once the

150 level goes, the anchor goes and it could be in free fall watch what happens with the fed and ministry of finance here in tokyo. back to you. >> martin soong outside the bank of japan thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know and why bob pisani says oversold october and interest rates is setting up for an impressive november if you miss us, check us out on your favorite podcast app more "wex" coming up after this. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to.

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welcome back time for the "wex wrap-up. we start with bp with the drop in profit of $3.2 billion. weakness from the gas division is offsetting margins. s.e.c. is suing solarwinds after being hit by russian hackers three yearsi ago the s.e.c. is saying the company is misleading the ability to withstand a breach and macbook pros revealed with custom chips to power them by apple the chips were shown off last night with the focus on professional users some will be available as soon as next week. shares of tesla set to extend yesterday's losses after closing at the lowest level in five months. shares of tesla lost 5% yesterday on news from panasonic that it cuts down on ev battery

production citing falling sales of teslas. panasonic is a battery supplier for tesla. on the other side of the trade, amazon is coming off the best two-day stretch in one year after the massive post-earnings ro rally. shares of pinterest are popping ahead of the open after beating on the top and bottom line the stock is getting help from bill ready who is staying silent on current ad spending issues that hit google and meta and snap shares of pinterest up over 16%. here is what to watch. home shiller price index and october consumer confidence. we have earnings from caterpillar and amd. and day one of the federal reserve's day one policy

decision and looking at futures right now, we see the dow pop looking to open 100 points higher. nasdaq is in the red right now bob pisani has more on the outlook for stocks in november >> after miserable october, set up for november is looking better barring a huge rally on tuesday, october will wbe the third consecutive down month for the sa s&p. stocks are oversold and the bond market is acting like it is difficult to get bond yields over 10% the glue which held together is higher rates it is easy to make the recession call with the rates rising, but recession is not the base case that is good for stocks. november is the number one month for the s&p 500. it is up 1.7% on average since

1950 december is the third best month after april. the seasonal setup, november and december, is strong for stocks the chances the s&p would be down four months in a row, including november, is really small. it hasn't been down four straight months since 2011 since 1946 there is still big problems. the macro environment with the uncertainty around the israel-hamas war is a an factor for stocks stocks are so oversold the average stock is down 5% this month alone and almost 14% off the recent highs the chances for a november bounce are very high providing rates behave

back to you. >> let's talk about the trading day ahead with serat sethi are you expecting a november pop? >> i don't know the short-term, but i agree with bob interest rates are driving the market the ten-year back to 4%. that is driving where we will see stocks as they come down or as they move up, that really relates to the stock market >> with all that in mind, sarat, what is your wex word of the day? >> bonds investors could put money in short-duration bonds from one to five years and you get 6% to 7%. we have never seen that before

for a decade what you are seeing is equities not just coming down, but a flow to another asset class which is less risky and more transparent than investors putting money into alternative classes like real estate or private credit where you just don't have that transparency >> explain that, sarat you see a potential for a november pop, but competition from the the fixed income market >> two things going on here, frank. you have another choice, but the other one is if you get clarity on interest rates and you know we are staying longer for higher, but not going up, but less volatility, investors will come uncertainty will be driven away and you can figure out the value of the stocks. if you can't figure out sell first, come back later frank, we are in the geopolitical uncertainty

every day what you see is we are opening up higher. in the last few weeks, mondays have been strong and over the rest of the week, we had a selloff and going into friday, investors don't want to be long. >> we want to focus on moves for today. one pick is morgan stanley >> they sold off 10% last week because they missed for a quarter of wealth mentioanageme. they did confirm targets they have a 4% dividend yield. it increases the dividend yield. if you want a bond proxy, this is better. they have taken uncertainty out. i think the combination of all of the three things drives that stock. >> sarat, thank you. >> thank you, frank. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next

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good morning the world bank out with a warning overnight saying the price of crude could surge over $150 a barrel if the israel-hamas war expands. shares of energy giant bp are falling after the miss by a wide margin for the third quarter. the fed is kicking off a two-day meeting today. scary on halloween it is halloween, october 31st,

2023 happy birthday to my wife, p penelope still bewitched and bewildered, i am "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in sometimes square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at equities it has been a difficult month. they are looking at the markets down for the month yesterday was an up day. dow fooututures indicated up ths morning. treasury yields with the fed meeting.