we've moved around a lot the dow looking like it would open down about 7 points the nasdaq maybe a point or two down a very different territory an hour or two ago now. the s&p up about 4 make sure you join us tomorrow happy halloween everybody. trick-or-treat "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber bulls trying to build on monday's bounce, but futures lost some gains on the back of several earnings disappointments. two-day fed meeting kicks off today on this final day of october, happy halloween our major averages on pace for three-month losing streaks as the fed kicks off that policy meeting. >> legendary investor stanley

drunken miller sounding off of treasury secretary yellen for making, quote, the biggest blunder in the history of the treasury shares of cat pillar are moving lower. the biggest laggard despite topping profit and revenue estimates. we'll dig through that quarter. let's begin with the markets. another one, jim, where we're like, let's look forward to the next one >> i think we have a market where, if there's something that's negative that can be found, they'll find it caterpillar, we sold a lot higher trying to figure out when to buy lower. i notice when people sell it down 12, that's because they think people are going to sell it down 15 if you go through what caterpillar is going to say, it's a fourth quarter story and 2024 story i mention it because i find, if there is one single line in a

report, carl, that's negative, it's all that people care about. we're in a real bad bear market right now. >> in this case is it about their warning, about china >> china is less than 5%, oil is 6% copper is bigger than china. david, is it mentioned that china is less than 5%? >> no. >> china headline is worth a lot. i'm saying there's a real cynical moment going on here, whether it be hedge fund managers calling out treasury secretaries forgetting it wrong, whether it be the reporters. i read a story today about nvidia losing $5 billion in sales in china how about the fact that that's going to flow back to america and will make more than $5 billion. the reason that story isn't written? that's a positive story. >> it did occur to me reading that story, it wasn't as though demand won't be soaked up immediately. it won't be the higher-end chips

that can no longer be sold in china. the immediacy of that ban impacting nvidia but to your point, they'll just bring them back here. >> and charge more as soon as you buy one, you make morme money on it. they introduced a chatbot function and said it's really big. i read the story, carl nvidia gets lucky, government bans china, good for pc makers, good for data centers. they don't do that you know why they don't do it? because they don't know, because they don't have sources, because they want it to be negative. like i said, it was amazing. when the eagles lost to the commanders, but that's okay. wait a second, they beat the commanders when i read that stuff, wow, they got that story. did they take the next measure and say where is that flowing back to and the fact it's negative for intel and amed,

that's way beyond their camp some kind of journalism jail when you got the story wrong >> -- >> i'm not in the habit of defending the journal. the story stands on its own. it's still a story, the fact that china will not be getting these. >> i used to write the stories with the daily herald examiner my editor, the late don forest, d.a. probes rackets. write that story it's a good story. i've done this i've done this, and it's great and it's fun, but it's not going to help you make money. >> to jim's point about caterpillar. take a listen. >> we now anticipate the full year to be bigger than we

previously expected. we expect our adjusted profit margin to be slightly above the targeted range relative to the corresponding level of sales this increases our expectation for m, e and t free cash flow which we expect will exceed the $4 to $8 billion target range for the full year. this outlook for the adjusted profit margin in m, t and e free cash flow reflects healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance. >> what jim did is what he always does. he puts up a big number. the numbers we saw for the quarters, the stocks ran up to 270. this is what i regard as being par for the course we saw where it went up like that will we buy today? if you're selling at 227, you know you're going to knock it down to 225, 224 this happened when they made the stand between 205 and 208.

it's just what happens what it's like rinse and repeat this is what happens cat reports, they pick one line, the china line he's moved china down from 10 to down 5 then what happens? you've got to hope someone even dumber than you sells it it's a high-risk game if it weren't for the fact that there are so many stupid people. by the way, i always urge you to check the first minute. >> or cts. it may not be people it may be algorithms >> the video chat box revealed yesterday. >> i don't think we talk often enough about the level of volume that simply is based on programs >> see that rogue -- he's not a rogue trader, right? he was a rogue programmer at 2 sigma, rogue coder. >> you go and buy caterpillar midday or maybe tomorrow morning and you make money

we have a big budget deficit, besides the fact we have a huge amount of interest we have to pay -- >> $640 million this year. -- $640 billion, excuse me. >> there's a trillion dollars in spending coming. there won't be any caterpillar umable bee is not a showman. he's not there to counteract dividend aristocrat. he's been remarkable since he came in. he buys back stock -- it's fair game it's fair game to play this game that's what happens. >> that said, it is a morning of a lot of revenue misses. bud, jetblue, pfizer, amgen. >> bud is up because it's not as bad as we thought because the rest of the world is good. amgen had a prostate cancer drug

that failed. repatha is a drug used for hard that's amazing this is not vf corp which i can go into later. and this isn't lattice semi where they said we did badly -- >> and it's not ser rep toe which we'll go into later which was a significant miss secondary end point. >> their release was disgusting. >> that was sad. >> bud is not as bad as it used to be. >> not as bad as it used to be what about my favorite >> talk about pfizer, i start driving them crazy when we put up the 20-year chart of pfizer it doesn't include dividends. >> i have news for him i have dr. bourlo on i'm going to say did david faber drive you crazy. you know what he's going to say? who is david faber. >> he's not going to do that he's a very nice man. >> he is, and a vet.

chewy upgraded. >> there it is that doesn't really do much -- >> all right >> that's all you have to say, really >> you do that to me so much, i want to see what it was like. >> how did it feel >> pretty satisfying. >> no reaction at all. anything in that pfizer release that excited you as you prepare for dr. bourla this evening. >> the line of how taylor swift was good for travis kelce. i want ratings and numbers >> they do affirm the full year guide. crude oil on the rise although wti is down more than 8% for the month the world bank forecasting an average price of the 90, declining to 84 in 2024. it says prices could theoretically jump to as much as

$157 a barrel if the middle east conflict escalates beyond gaza and results in a large disruption scenario when it comes to supply. that would exceed the '08 record, jim, of 147. >> you can say that. there's russia, saudi arabia and the u.s. u.s. is one of the reasons you can say caterpillar is not doing that well. the largest market they have is personal yen we're not drilling like we used to be. i do think you can make that case about oil i would have made the case that, wait a second, there's a major expansion of the war in gaza, and oil is down. i think that's more dispositive than whatever the big thinkers are doing at that shop >> by the way eu is 13 million barrels a day.

there's a lot of room. people are critical of the chevron deal and exxon deal. scott sheffield are taking a five-year view those guys are taking a five-day view. >> those guys being? >> the negativist. >> you're really getting on the negativist. >> it's a horrible market. >> didn't feel good yesterday? >> that was a short trap. >> what is the market anyway 35% of the s&p and everybody is into etfs and an index fund? aren't you just -- >> david, have you ever heard of the ten-year >> yes you want to talk about that. >> you need to read sydney hoerm's book, 550-page book n called inside the yield curve. >> carl, have you read that book >> i have not. >> it's the morning show, inside the yield curve.

>> those are your go-to at the moment. >> three hours of sleep? >> let me just say that -- no spoiler alert, but david, the inversion -- >> that's a big moment. >> i'm not giving any more away. >> no, don't. >> apple last night unveiling new products highlighted by third generation chips we'll talk about the street's reaction to that this morning. elntl get to pins and eaton, stlais, roku, chewy and a lot more back in a moment and deliver solutions that meet complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures... (gasp) you need weathertech. [hot dog splat.] laser measured floorliners front and rear. [drink slurp and splat.] (scream)

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tonight we're introducing a new family of breakthrough chips and bringing them to the world's best pro laptop, macbook pro. >> tim cook at apple's product event last night he says the m 3 chips are faster than their predecessors and will be used to power new macbook pro laptops and a new desk top with a starting price of $1300. new computers available for pre order. >> i think these are arm designed chips >> this is another one and david will give me a best of a ride here most of the press says this is irrelevant i tried to get one for my wife because it's her birthday is tomorrow the demand is so great it's repulsive that the press

decided it's awful the customers have decided it's a win. >> not saying i it's awful. the reviews have been that it's faster, but that's what it is. which is not an insignificant thing. >> thank you all i'm saying is whatever the press says, try to get one just try to get one. i was able to get the phone by using the new video chat which is just superb thank you, chris, for doing a great job. these are not easy things to get. you always struggle between what the press says and what the public says. >> i think what's more interesting, of course, we know apple started designing its own chips some time ago. they eve replaced intel inside you've got nvidia and amd, competing potentially in the pc market qualcomm it's also important to note how

many companies now design their own chips that are not chip companies, whether it's apple or amazon or meta correct? >> correct >> many of those then go and get sent to taiwan semi that actually makes the chips it's an amazing time for chip design >> yes, it is. >> which is everything that's all it's about. >> that's why cadence should work, cadence is everybody cadence guide -- cadence is one of the best performing stocks in the last ten years. >> who are all these people that design the chips at nvidia, for example, what are their -- >> smarter than us. >> what are their degrees all in it takes years sometimes to design these chips. >> usually in com engineering, not com sci. nvidia has thousands of engineers. we have a shortage in this country. >> what do they do all day >> they create great wealth.

they tinker. go watch -- here is what i want you to do. there's ten videos of the cadence site you'll see what an engineer does it's really very good because they actually build -- the intellectual property of nvidia to the actual build of chip in cadence, and then to the foundry of taiwan semi. >> so it shows the entire process. >> it's very, very good. cadence is a really smart company. no one really focuses on them. they're the best in terms of the you want to see how an engineer works. >> needham did say the odd timing of the apple event makes them worry that macs were weak in the quarter not just the press, the sell side, too. >> i'm not looking for a good quarter. why should this be a good quarter? the phone came out at the wrong time everyone says the company -- i urge people, if they really want to get out, get out.

i'll buy when they're done getting out. it's a really great company with 99% customer satisfaction. they could raise the apple plus and no one even cares. >> you're just daring people at this point. >> i just bought one i paid $400 for all the things you need to do, if you drop it, you can't do this, can't do that what are you going to not do it? what other products like that? bud light? mo modelo i'm angry. >> you are >> i can tell. >> i came if fired up. >> yesterday you were all negative now today you're all angry that everybody else is negative figure it out, man. >> david, we have to go, and i'm tired of your meanderings. >> maybe we should change "mad dash" to "angry dash." we'll get that ahead of the opening bell in a moment

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opening bell in eight minutes. let's get to our "mad dash" or "angry dash. >> my faux anger is over pinterest said the ad interest is over. you have new management in what they did is figure out how to get the big funnel better they had this great deal with amazon they're finally translating all the interest into sales. it's a great platform if you're an advertiser. you get a good opportunity here. this thing was creeping up all

night. each line was better than the last this is now going to be, along with meta, a destination for you to advertise at. it had always been a destination where you would look at it and go somewhere else because you got the idea now you stay i think these guys -- this is going to be a long-term winner. >> something in this quarter that makes you think long-term winner as opposed to previous quarters. >> the funnel widened, more people coming in the customer is really happy, staying within their realm the deal with amazon is very smart. these guys were pristine, david. commerce was an ugly thing for them they weren't about commerce. they're about customers and satisfaction i find if you're about customers and satisfaction, you might as well make it about commerce. this stock goes higher it's terrific. i'm apologizing for my behavior. i see people sell apple -- there's nothing you can do it's what happens ahead of the

quarter. i apologize that i was a tempest and turned out to be teapot. >> it's okay, jim. you don't need to apologize. our viewers know you. >> the pinterest will be joining the 11:00 hour. >> really? he's so solid. i might crash. >> okay. i won't be here. you can talk to carl about that. he says, yes -- we've got an opening bell coming up don't forget you can catch us any time anywhere by following the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast

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stanley druckenmiller taking a shot ot yellen, arguing yellen failed to take advantage of the ultra low interest rates era he said, quote, i guess because political myopia or whatever, issuing two-years at 50 basis points when she could have

listed 30 at 180 goes on to say it's the biggest blunder in the history of the treasury i have no idea why she hasn't been called on this. she has no right to still be in that job as steve liesman pointed out this morning, it would be weird to go long duration at a time when the fed is still doing qe. >> there's been good people, not this treasury but previously said it on air -- >> you wanted them to issue a 50. >> well, go out as far as possible i said it to tim geithner who is a terrific guy he explained it's much more expensive to do the long end than the short the short is the cheapest. i said that's a very shortsighted view. secretary mnuchin said the same thing. they have to call everybody out. they've been doing this -- the long has been really fabulous to do it.

we've said it on air steve liesman said that would be an odd thing to do it doesn't matter. it was just a good thing to do. >> you think households were more rational, re-fi'ing into low rates the way they did >> it was so great i think the chart you put up about disposable income and how it's going down, the savings are down well, one of the reasons we're such a robust economy is because people did the irrational thing. the government didn't want to do it didn't matter how much you told them long rates were going to go up it was just in their dna not to do it. >> richard fisher was on "squawk box" defending yellen saying you're not taking the full context of the time and place into account. >> very true >> it would have been more expensive. it was unclear whether there would be demand for that much. >> i think everybody should

realize that, but we had a lot of people who said the yield curve means recession and we've had 4.9% gdp i would love to run the tape of everybody that said -- [ bell ringing ]. >> let's get the opening bell at the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board it's madison square garden and st. john's university celebrating the start of college basketball season e embecor doing the honors >> we're still oversold. interest rates have been calm. we haven't had apple's quarter yet to disappoint. we haven't had the fed say 230, things we didn't want to hear after jay powell is pestered by the college newspapers that are there says, hey, when did you

stop -- the usual. we have a bit of a gauntlet this week as we work off the oversold, i think people say, gee, i wish i had made some sales. >> it's not a great market >> it's not a bad market. >> it's not great, not bad either -- we need to see either some good data that makes it so you want to buy long-term bonds or we need to see the fed say we're done we don't have either right now we need one or the other, if not both as long as we don't have it, everything is a trade. i accept that. i think if you go in today nvidia down nine and you wait until it's down 15, you can buy it and flip it i think you can do that. those are the things that are happening, people just trading, trading, trading david, you know i don't think that's a market for individuals. that's a high-risk market, to trade, trade, trade. >> okay. >> okay? >> i'm just trying to figure out where you are.

yesterday you were -- >> you should sell you should lighten up into the big move i'm saying -- >> are you still >> as long as you don't have the fed on your side or no buyers of the 10, 20, 30-year, i can't be that positive. i was looking at what china is doing, down from a trillion to 800 million. they keep selling. we need nominal buyers to come in and say this is the right level. we don't have them yet yes, we were thrilled that the treasury -- looks like they underestimated how much they need. >> the financing number came out. a little light. >> how about tomorrow if they come out and say things like, you know what? we're going to do 10 and 20-year. people will say where are they -- the usual blame game i tire of it. >> at the same time, jim, china pmi miss eurozone inflation, two-year low. >> that's good

a lot of mixed stuff i find that when you drill down on any single quarter, there's always one line item that's bad. we can just go right down on everything honeywell, why is it 179 the climate control business wasn't as good as the aerospace business i can find something for everything the last three day of meta's quarter wasn't that good it turned out pinterest said it was okay this is the stuff we're stuck in. >> we are. >> i can give you the count on semi it was at 100 two weeks ago. they did say auto was weak lattice came out and confirmed israel industrials is week. right now the negative is win because if you're fighting the fed and fighting the fact there's no real buyers for the long end that's what you're fighting. >> speaking of not great news, this is just a story that's

overall not great. it involves sur rep that if you're an owner of this stock, you're not happy today. if you're suffering for the horrific disease of duchenne's muscular dystrophy which is a ferociously degenerative disease, it's not a good day there's a long press release in which sur rep toe goes through the results of its bark study treated with its drug el individual disshowing an increase in the north star ambulatory assessment, an assessment of motor function for people who have duchenne's these are kids, compared to placebo. it didn't get to the primary end point. they have a lot of secondary end points as being quite positive, passing five seconds on time to rise, being the strongest

predictor of early loss of the ability to walk, for example but ultimately, i'll refer to the note here which says we were looking for at least a 1.3 point difference on that ambulatory measurement to show statistical significance instead it was .65 so it was roughly half or exactly half of what they had hoped for. their bottom line is they say those secondary outcome measures that are cited very positively in the press release -- by the way, cited for the reason they're still going to go to the fda and try to get approval and feel like they may have a shot at it. nonetheless, again, refer to a note from can't tore fitz this morning, they feel there would have been more evidence if there had been a slight miss given that was not the case, we don't think those measures will carry as much weight it's clear there's efficacy, but will it be enough for full

approval the market, obviously, is weighing in this morning then there's catalent. it had a brutal run, couldn't put out financials elliott got in board they manufacturer for sarepta. that's impacting catalent's shares. >> do you think danaher is up because they didn't buy -- danaher has not been able to make a right move for 18 months is rather extraordinary. >> there is. >> someone was blaming yellen. i bought estee lauder for the trust and bought danaher for the trust. >> it's like watching the patriots with a losing record. it just doesn't compute. >> the borne identity went down yesterday. you always take the best

receiver they're a terrible team. when tom brady left him, turns out to be impact. >> an impact on his departure. they still managed under mac jones. >> i didn't mean to move us to the nfl, althoughi thought that 35 minutes had gone by and we hadn't talked about it. >> did you see how much nfl is up, up 125%. herbstreit and al michaels thermo fisher, they're all going up because they didn't buy cat lent ther more fisher is another good company. these are all post covid. >> again, you and i have talked many times about the longer term track record of success and appreciation in the stock market for danaher and thermo fisher until the last couple years. >> i'll go there what a bum that belichick is

he's like danaher, for heaven's sake how many rings does danaher have this is part of the cynicism moment i'm talking about, that belichick is no good and danaher is no good i'm not going to do that i revere belichick. >> let me come back to sar rep toe. they mentioned how encouraging the discussions with the fda has been post the study. there's a good deal of question as to whether that will result -- fda has been willing for diseases almost intractable approve things that are not necessarily moving the needle. >> parents come in and say, please, anything i don't know how you say no to them it's a horrible disease. >> it is horrible. >> one that i hope gets through is this vertex anti pain, the first non-addictive. that's what i'm hoping for

i think our country is gripped with a level of addiction that's impacting our actual country. >> is that in your stock price >> no. i think it will go up substantially. all of them have addiction i don't know i have great hope that the pharmaceutical industry is doing tremendous things in this country, but most people don't share my optimism. jim, a lot of discussions about autos. stellantis came out and talked about the impact of the strike which relative to ford and gm might be a little light. berkshire selling more byd, and then deutsche talking about -- the term they're using is meltdown >> that's a really negative article. they research him by the way adam jonas, whom you know i love, he joined the global ev meltdown, early playbook for

deutsche -- i read this to our guys this morning. ice es the apocalypse now. >> what is the main contention saying that not only is demand slowing, but it's melting down >> there's a dislike of evs at the same time everyone is ramped up to evs. everybody is committed to evs but can't make any money. >> the model y is the best-selling automobile period, period >> one of the things -- i was critical to stephen cher who runs hertz he said are we supposed to not buy the most popular car in america. you would think people would come in and say i'd like the most popular car in america. they didn't know it would be hard to repair. >> tesla below 195 this morning, will take you back to june down almost 20% -- >> what's happening in this market, it's rolling over really badly. within the guise of yesterday, by the way, the breadth wasn't

that good yesterday. >> no. >> people should be aware that underneath there's a lot of stocks just giving up. >> the only stocks that seem to be able to make the stand are the ones that have already been given up on, like the banks. no one cares about the banks. >> a lot of focus on tesla for obvious reasons. also in the last 4 hours on twitter or i should say x, excuse me, formerly twitter. >> how is that doing >> they came in at 19 billion in terms of how they're valuing stock for employees. not a big surprise i think we've been saying more or less since he signed the deal up it was roughly half what he was paying at the moment he signed our producer todd equates it with the producers, remember like he's max or gene wilder in this case. let's buy a company -- >> paul marks i think is the

better analogy. >> paul marks? >> "the morning show." >> jon hamm. >> it's on apple. >> "the morning show?" it's been watched by 17 people >> i love those 17 people. >> i know it's a hit for apple >> if it's only watched by 17 people why apple putting through that price increase in the stock? >> i don't know. you want to see something watched by a lot of people, when into sat down with elon musk on may 16th and we talked about twitter. you want to take a listen? >>why not. >> maybe we don't have it. >> the analogy i was using, it's like being tell ported into a plane that's in a nosedive headed to the ground with the engines on fire and the controls don't work that's what it felt like. >> you chose to get into the plane. >> well, i did try to exit the deal and they wouldn't let me.

>> there you go. inner workings of m&a law. by the way, $13 billion in debt is still out there that's an important point to make that has not been able to be sold by the banks that underwrote, one of the largest lbos of all time. >> much better functionality a lot of positives since he's come in. i think it's a very unappetizing site for an advisor. it's funny a lot of stuff if you follow sports, follow the news -- that doesn't necessarily make it anymore worthwhile than advertising on radio and this has the added disadvantage of people can post anything and a lot of it is vial it's a bad place to sell tide versus pinterest which is a happy-go-lucky nice site makes you feel like you're on

the yellow brick road. >> on pin, goes to 37, key goes to 37, a company you've said is not that promotional. >> no. a very, very good quarter. i think what we're seeing today is that yesterday was a day that there happened to be, for whatever reason, david, you mentioned a lot of things are computers. mutual fund season, end of year -- these are all things that just happen, and i'm trying to make it so people understand why they're losing money today versus making money yesterday. a lot of technical stuff that moved it yesterday. >> any new views -- i follow this because it's such an interesting story, even though frankly in the stock market, not much can trade because everybody locked into their elections on vm wear. they can't do anything vmware is down another 2%. any updates for us i shared that yesterday and i'm starting to wonder whether it

was true, this idea that hock tan would look out that it's not political. of koirts's political. he wants everybody to think it's bureaucratic because he wants to get this thing through. >> if it's paperwork, this deal is one of the longest lingering deals. >> how can it not be political given what we started the show with, talking about nvidia and the chips that can no longer be sold to china? >> you're going on somebody's word that it's not political that would mean the deal does close this weekend. >> or are we being panted by hock tan. >> this is make or break on his reputation if they get it done shortly, it means two weeks. >> as soon as this week. >> for people at home, this is what matters broad.com will do a giant deal why are we sweding the program >> qualcomm nxpi is the one that

never got approved. >> i know. qualcomm is back to that level, david. chicago pmi is out. let's get it from rick santelli. >> indeed, chicago pm afrjts, 44.0 this is the weakest level since july, but maybe more importantly, it's the 14th consecutive month under 50 50 is the magic line between expansion and contraction. we see yields have moved higher from the 4.80% low we had earlier today. yesterday we saw around 489. even though yields are down on the long-dated treasuries, they bounced much higher than they were earlier we see two-year note yields are higher on the day. three year note yields are fas lating between in and out of net change of positive versus

negative maybe the real issue continues to be first day of a two-day fed meeting. not expected to do anything. thing treasury market still seems to be in control of interest rates "squawk on the street" will return after a short break

watch jetblue today. it is a wider than expected loss revenue miss they guide below for the coming quarter and talk more about the impact on oil. for the year, it's going to be down about 45% closing in on getting half since the beginning of 2023. dow is down 105. we'll gest tdi wh m a minute.itji

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building and delever, lower debt, and strength the balance sheet. >> jim is doing stop trading. >> brackendale you saw there, he turned around logitech and did it three times -- more than three times the s&p in a period of 11 years. he turned around procter & gamble he'll do the same with vf corp it's not coming down instantly one of the things he laid out last night it's not going to happen overnight vans is the problem there. anyone who is buying now, it's a longer ride. have faith i think he can turn it around. the timeframe may not be what people want. >> two activists in there. he seems to be following a lot of what their playbook is. >> yeah. >> cut costs, cut the dividend, delever, reinvest. >> change the vans president. >> new vans team coming in he's bringing in a great european face. north face is the gold star in

europe it did a lot of things wrong, many things wrong, and he has to fix a lot of it. there's a case study in how to run a company into the ground a very good company, i think as long as people understand you can't do it overnight, he's a person who can turn it around. >> amazing how they ruin this company. >> they ruined it. >> $100 stock. >> ruined it i remember when they moved from pennsylvania to be closer to the mills in north carolina. now they moved to denver why did you move to denver well, i don't know north face mountains. that's terrific. i mean there you go. he's got a light way about him if he were here right now, he's a delight and i am rooting for him. this is going to be a long-term thing. you have to turn timberland, vans, vans being really bad, north face, more like europe, get rid of the backpacks the supreme, they have to start monetizing that. and there wasn't anything that

wasn't destroyed they sold contour, the denim, right before the big denim move. these guys may have been the textbook of what not -- how not to run a company. >> wow. >> do everything the opposite of what they did. >> yeah. whatever they did, you have to take the other side. basically, new balance turned around and new balance has turned around. taylor swift travis kelce take swift take it -- take swift as high as you can. i don't care. >> buying all the way up. >> buying swift at par right now. >> what'sp on mad tonight? >> pfizer, talk travis kelce and meta and the fact that there is a company post-covid even though people don't think there is -- >> what does rodgers call kelce, mr. pfizer >> mr. pfizer. >> you gave away my whole -- you like that. mr. pfizer. >> yeah. >> happy halloween. >> thank you so much, jim.

to you what are you going as? >> nothing. >> i'm going as cramer. >> good. >> cramer from "seinfeld." >> i'm going to give candy out. >> still works any time -- >> one of the great mass murders of our time. they don't talk about that just the good side, handsome side. >> we'll see you tonight "mad money," 6:00 p.m. a break here with the dow down 88 don't go anywhere.

good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber, live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange take a look at stocks in the early action under a little bit of selling pressure. dow down about 98 points right now. there are pockets of green when it comes to the sector performance. you can see real estate, for instance, on top of the market along with financials having a good day, utilities and consumer discretionary. everybody else is weaker technology at the bottom of the pack take a look at treasuries right now. mixed picture. a selloff at the short end of the curve with the two-year note yield higher but the ten-year is

lower. we'll talk about the reasons why in a moment. below 4.9% 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we're watching caterpillar reporting a double-digit jump in profit, shares beating estimates but shares dropping on a disappointing outlook. pinterest soaring on a solid forecast sales up 11% from last year. the pinterest ceo will join us in the next hour sarepta therapeutics plunging 40%. the gene therapy to treat a muscle-wasting disorder failed to meet the main goal affiliate-stage trial. carl >> consumer confidence with rick santelli hey, rick. >> yes, hi, carl october read on consumer confidence this one from the conference board, 102.6, much higher than expected we were expecting 100.5. that doesn't dismiss the fact that still the lowest level since may, since may of this

year not that long ago. but still, a bit of a retracement from levels that we are more used to in the 114 camp, for example, was july. just to give you an idea if we look at the present situation, 143.1 that's the weakest since november of last year. and if we look at what lies ahead or expectations, that's 75.6 that's actually the best since august, which wasn't that long ago considering this is an october read there are some revisions and the revisions are all higher on the headline and expectations. a spmidge lower on present situation, 147.1 that doesn't change the historic comps on what we're looking at with regard to october we see that interest rates have moved significantly off their low yields over the last hour, especially 10s and 30s we see that the short end has

remained much more firm. sara, back to you. >> okay. thank you very much, rick santelli 10-year note yield just goes positive there on the session on the back of that strong data not exactly the friendliest data when it comes to a federal reserve and investors that are looking for a slowdown in the economy from the hot levels we're seeing there's a lot of, though, overnight data and news to talk about when it comes to what's impacting treasuries the rally that we saw which led to yields in the overnight session. we should start with bank of japan. a lot of anticipation building up to this meeting and what they did, disappointed the hawks, for instance they changed their yield curve control it set a reference rate around 1%. the bottom line they didn't go as far as they could have or some in the market thought they would in capping that or in expanding the band that the 10-year jgb is allowed to trade in

it was a little more, and bonds rallied and the u.s. treasuries rally alongside what happens in japan. then the issuance, financing data, which you were - >> i was on pins and needles. >> pins and needles. >> both eyes focused. >> all eyes, all ears. >> my understanding it was -- >> lower than expected $776 billion is what the treasury is going to borrow. it's a very high number for a quarterly borrowing, but it is lower than what they originally at the end of july said they would have to borrow this quarter, $852 billion. the next big potentially tradeable news event wednesday, tomorrow morning, where we get the -- how they execute that and break it down over croupons and what sizes that has the potential to spook the market if it's focused on long term. more than 20% of the market is paid up of bills a lot of demand at the short end of the curve. we'll be watching it. >> that and that brings up that

criticism of janet yellenen, whether fair or not, in terms of duration and decisions that were made not issue at the longer end when rates were low. >> did he go after steven ma new shan, too? >> he had that opportunity. >> he did. we were talking about it with jim who urged the treasury to issue given how low the rates were. >> i don't think anybody was anticipating this move in rates, and yes, it's painful and it's going to wreak havoc on our country's finances and the net borrowing is going to go up. >> $640 billion and counting which is quickly becoming one of the largest if not the second largest line item in the budget. >> the other factor we watch is the data and whether the economy is showing weakness and whether inflation is cooling off enough. we did get the employment cost index, an important gauge of wages. the fed pays attention to, 1.1%

the quarterly jump a little hotter than expected, but it does sort of confirm the trend of wage growth slowing, which is what the fed is seeing. we're down from the peak levels in second quarter of 2022. overall, that's good news. i think the fed is very much set up tomorrow to pause and suggest that they could still raise rates if they need to, but i think in the market's minds not happening again. >> fed funds futures 0% chance of a cut or a hike tomorrow. we did get eu inflation down to 2.9, a two-year low versus 4.3 a little bit of a relief china pmi light. goldman has cut their december core cpi number to 2.7 they were at 2.9 we're talking about 2 handles for the next month or so. >> if we can get there we're still at 3.7 or sop on core cpi it has to continue to come down. the fed wants it at 2%

we've seen progress where the fed feels comfortable waiting. it's what happens to the economy and some of the best indications is from corporate america. the vf corp and the disaster that was in terms of what they're saying about the consumer and business. north american business according to the cfo, primarily u.s. wholesale is anticipated to be modestly weaker versus our prior expectations as we look to the back half of the year and much less impactful we see a chopperer macro environment in europe they're having their issues with vans and new president and everything like that we continue to hear that cautiousness in planning and forecasting on the consumer in europe and the u.s >> although you had cat as well and that was a bit more positive, right? >> yeah. demand healthy in the end markets they say due to improving supply chain conditions, product availability and lead times that have improved, but we monitor global and macro economic conditions and expect full year 2023 to be

better than we anticipated. >> bofa on holiday retail, i don't know if you saw that note, across their coverage universe, in 2020 it was 11.9, then 6.2 and then 3.3 this year looking for 0.6. strip out walmart down 0.1 looking for the consumer to make tougher decisions. >> the pressure on the low income piled four a few quarters, drop in excess savings we've seen, the fact that rates have been rising for a while on the other side demand for labor which the employment cost index points to a tight labor market, then the consumer holds in there it's confuse because it does depend on where you sit and what your company -- pinterest did not echo the comments from the other advertisers about caution and the middle east. pinterest said broader environment we've seen stabilization there.

you're not getting a clean read. >> different than meta even though meta's quarter was good and then snap as well where there was at least some question as to whether there's a pullback given the war, for example, right now. >> and just being rewarded for that. >> yeah. >> meantime the final trading day of october the major averages on pace for a third month of losses. bob pisani is here to talk about the setup for november >> the good thing we're getting out of october it's been horrible, down 3%. that's despite a rally yesterday. it's unusual down three months in a row, since march of 2020, last time we were down three months in a row. the good news going into november the strong period of the year, november, december, the one-two punch we talk about. and the stock market is very oversold the strongest period of the year with an oversold stock market is a positive setup there are negatives, we know about the geopolitical situation

that clouds the outlook, very hard to parse that a positive, i see, is yields not getting above 5% on the 10-year that's been noticeable earnings are starting to reflect the uncertainty and the higher yields in the last few weeks the q3 earnings have been strong but q4 estimates are starting to come down. take a look at the setup for november november the best month of the year we see 1.7 put up the first part, 1.7% for november april up 1.5%. strongest month of the year. the 10-year yield trying to get over 5% and can't. and that is the subject of a lot of discussion. we're starting to see the stock market stabilize that could change at any moment. for the moment, 5% the line in the sand not crossed yet

here's the fourth quarter. it's the fourth quarter, it's the system where we're going that people are interested in. right now, fourth quarter for the s&p estimated to be up 8%. it was 11% october 1st third quarter numbers are actually higher and that's fairly typical we're up about 4% for the third quarter, expected to be up 1%. the beat normally about 3% third quarter is acting very, very normal. it's the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2024 that's starting to come down. you want a great indication of why it is the system, why it is the guidance, why it is the body language that matters. sara talking about caterpillar and reading from the ceo there the reported numbers were fantastic and then the margins were very, very good if you look at what happens in the commentary backlog was down, sales guidance was not that great overall and that's why the stock is trading down right now. finally just about november. the probability of four consecutive months down is very, very small we have not had four consecutive

down months in the s&p since 2011 the last time we had four consecutive down months when it ended in november was 1946 so this is why i'm reasonably optimistic the setup is positive november is very strong and with the markets going into november so oversold you have a positive outlook. it's really murky and the politics hard to parse here and the 10-year over 5% could blow everything apart again i'm optimistic, but the confidence level is very, very low right now. that's the problem the market, you can see this in the daily gyrations of the stock market. >> you mentioned estimates for q4 are coming down how is it looking for 2024 >> 12% up 12% a lot of people who -- came out yesterday and said 12% i think is in jeopardy and thinks it should come down and it's going to you'll see in the next few weeks

the 2024 numbers q1 is coming down slightly i would estimate in the next couple weeks we'll go down to 10% and that's probably where it's going to rebe main into the end of the year. if the 10-year blows up and goes to 5.5%, everything changes. i'm assuming static right now or stable yields right now and not dramatically worse than the geopolitical situation if all that changes the estimates are out the window. >> the dollar has gone up and that could affect these estimates too. dollar/yen now 151 after bank of japan didn't go as hawkish that's problematic too. >> yeah. it's really tough to parse the global situation right now the bottom line is the s&p is still up 7% for the year, 8% for the year that's remarkable. people think we're down dramatically for the year. the feel is that we're down dramatically and we're actually - >> it is only eight stocks otherwise we are down. >> right the rsp, equal weight is down

more than 5% the average stock is having a tough year. >> s&p went positive, bob. maybe it's your four months in a row can't happen. >> the optimistic. >> thank you. as we head to break our road map for the rest of the hour a volatile month for tech with the nasdaq in correction territory. what's ahead for the rest of tech in the final two months of the year. >> the fed begins a two-day meeting. results of our latest cnbc fed survey on wherep top economists see rates headed and the numbers may surprise you. from the airlines to the semis, stock movs sulerwehod be watching big show still ahead don't go anywhere.

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wireless that works for you. it's not just possible. we continue to monitor the -- excuse me we are actually going to talk about that right now it's down over 2% or 2.5% in october on pace for a third straight month losses. still talking nasdaq is up nicely on the year discuss what's ahead for the group in the final two months of the year and we'll bring in rosenblat, buy on meta, alphabet, amazon, hold on apple. i would assume your assessment is a positive one, or would that be incorrect >> overall, i think it's been a nice earnings season we've liked some of the tech names, not all of them we've liked the companies that have be a opportunity for revenue acceleration and margin

expansion, which we think is an unusual feature of the internet group and we've seen those themes be enhanced with the earnings report of pinterest which we recommend as well as amazon and we had a constructive read from google and meta even though the market was in disagreement with us initially. >> you could say we're looking at the response to those numbers from pin and that was good alphabet not microsoft somewhat muted response to what many thought was quite a good quarter amazon was up. meta people got scared by their commentary about the ad market is that worrirying to you it has been a muted response by investors to what you characterize as a pretty positive earnings season >> well, i think that, you know, coming into this season, one thing that we had observed is that it did feel like there was a nervousness in this group, and i think part of it is concern around what's the trajectory,

longer term of the macro, and i think that's really what was happening with meta. the immediate reaction to the commentary about the war but everyone knows advertisers pull back in wars and this war is not going to be overly disruptive unless it expands, and i think what that is masking is people are worried about the macro. the way you protect yourself focus on quality and growth and i think you see that with the stocks that we're recommending in this group. >> ai and cloud so important for amazon or alphabet or meta or microsoft. not as much for apple, which i just think told our viewers you have a hold on. as we head into the number what is holding you back from being more positive on that stoc i've and did move to a hold, you know, in august and the stock has dipped since then. i think apple is a great company, but i think the stock is most interesting when they're

pursuing a disruptive opportunity. i think that could be with vision pro, but that's a ways out. in the near term, we're fighting the good fight on iphone sales this is the most important and loved device of the modern economy but think that that he got easy compares in the quarter to disruptions but that's understood in the estimates and the stock trading near a high valuation historically relative to the s&p and not a lot of argument for big upside to estimates. i don't know that you need to be overexposed to apple right here right now. >> how much of a risk is china >> china is a risk everything blows up, apple would suffer, but everything would suffer we hope that doesn't happen and we hope that we're able to keep our two economies working together constructively. >> that seems the most probable case and hopefully that's i'm modeling with apple and hopefully that plays out.

>> i was wondering on a quarterly demand side of things. there's the bigger risk there, too, i guess. >> yeah. in terms of the quarterly demand, that's an imponderable i believe the global units are most important and the outlook for the third quarter is flatish year over year i think that's an okay result. and i think the iphone 15, you know, trajectory december quarter is trickier and less well understood. we believe they have $7 billion of supply chain disruptions a year ago that they can comp and grow, but, you know, consumers in a little bit tougher position china's emblematic of that that's where i would be nervous on the december quarter for apple. >> yeah. barton, thanks, again, as always appreciate it. >> thank you after the break, bitcoin soaring in the month of october. what investors are saying about the crypto from here plus ftx founder sam bankman-fried facing

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bitcoin continuing its strong 2023 campaign up around 28% in october that's two months of gains the recent run higher boosted crypto exposed names like micro strategy and marathon digital in october. watch coinbase, the shares pulling back in a fireside chat yesterday legendary investor stanley brushenburg commented on coin. it's clear young people look at it as value because it's easier to do stuff with i don't own any bitcoin but i should he will join "squawk box" former morning at 7:00 a.m. eastern time, the same time this morning bernstein with a bull case we expect bitcoin to rise to $150,000 by mid 2025, a lot of that circulates around the approval of etfs that would be newsworthy. >> nothing gets price targets up like strong price action which

is what we've seen in the month of october what a change from earlier in the year remember when bitcoin was collapsing under higher rates. speaking of let's get to the latest details from the trial of sam bankman-fried. testifying again today kate rooney is there and joins us with more what does today bring, kate? >> hey, sara sam bankman-fried is back on the witness stand, as we speak yesterday he did seem aggravated at points, dodging questions the judge scolding him at times for not answering questions directly we'll see if we get more of that today. the prosecution called sam bankman-fried's veds creditability into question in their cross-examination. they laid out inconsistencies when the crypto founder was saying one thing in public and something different behind closed doors they used sam bankman-fried's media appearances, dozens of media appearance, brought up one cnbc conversation that i had with the founder in which he told me there were no conflicts of interest between his hedge fund and the crypto exchange he ran.

attorneys presented him with a book at one point, gave him a book about the crypto collapse that was written recently but bankman-fried said he couldn't recall saying some of those things they went through contradictions and when he said under oath in front of congress and then asked about private messages with a journalist in which he was making fun of regulators and customers using obscenities. introduced tweets as well where he assures customers assets on ftx were fine but the government prosecutor showed using google meta data he seen data unveiling a million dollar hole in his crypto company the cross-examination continues today. we'll bring you any updates as we get them. back to you. >> doesn't sound like it's going well for sam bankman-fried >> reporter: yeah. not so far, david. at least with the cross-examination. much more comfortable speaking to his own attorneys but as you can expect very much exposed here this was the downside and risk of testifying, that he was going

to be really put in the hot seat and grilled. he is -- they're putting him in a tough position where he doesn't want to perjure himself, taking time to pause and making sure he's answering the question, but really frustrated the judge too a couple times he's gotten in trouble there the judge saying answer the question directly and keep him on track. >> thank you kate rooney with coverage of that case not far from here. still to come here, the fed kicks off another meeting today. exclusive results over cnbc fed survey just on where economists see inflation and rates vimong stay with us we're back in 2.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. the secretaries of state and

defense are making their case right now on capitol hill to a senate committee for president biden's sweeping $165 billion funding request. it should cover aid to israel and ukraine. the funding would also help with efforts to curb china's power and go towards tougher border security in the u.s. several protesters are in the crowd this morning demonstrating against sending more money to israel amid its war with hamas. the biden administration proposing a new plan to forgive student debt months after the supreme court struck down a relief plan that aimed to cancel 23,000 in debt, the new would target four categories including those with federal student loan balances higher than what he they borrowed as well as those who entered into repayment debt 25 years ago or more. and the path looks clear for saudi arabia to host the 2034

world cup. australia the only other country to have shown an interest in hosting made a last-minute decision not to submit a bid sara, back to you. >> thank you bertha coombs we continueto mon the israel-hamas war in its 25th day of conflict. let's get to kelly cobiella in israel with the latest >> good morning to you the israeli defense forces say they are continuing the ground operations and combined military operations in gaza today they claim they hit a hamas outpost in the north of the gaza strip today. they say they killed hamas fighters and destroying anti-tank missile launch outposts and confiscated a number of weapons. clearly the fighting continuing in a quite intense rate in gaza. there are reports of israeli

tanks spotted on the outskirts of gaza city people sheltering in the hospitals inside gaza city increasingly fearful hearing strikes getting closer, they say, to those hospitals. the activity, military activity, on the ground seeming to ramp up here where we are in eliat, sort of the coastal resort town in the south of israel, you can see the mountains of jordan behind me, to the south here directly south, is yemen, and earlier today, we heard sirens, warning sirens in the city, a place where 65,000 evacuees are staying. evacuees from those neighborhoods alongside gaza which were hit so badly on october 7th. the sirens sounded there were reports of an unidentified object in the air the idf later saying, in fact,

they shot down surface-to-surface ballistic missile and two cruise missiles fired by the houthi rebels, iranian backed n yemen the houthis have taken credit for that and said they sent a barrage of missiles and drones in this direction because of the war, israel's war against hamas, and says there is more to come clearly concerning when you talk about the possibility or the risk of this escalating and expanding beyond these borders. >> kelly, thank you. kelly cobiella in eliat, israel. the fed kicking off another two-day meeting and according to respondents of cnbc's latest fed survey they will not be hiking this week. steve liesman, that's not a surprise you got anything for me that, perhaps, would be? >> yeah. or next week or the week after

that david, you're right. respondent of the fed survey expect not just no additional hikes this week, fwhouts additional -- but no additional rate hikes at all. they have embraced the higher for longer where no rate cuts are expected until the third quarter of 2024, as in don't hold your breath our survey shows 100% leave rates unchanged, 5.29 the peak rate, 10.4 months the average for how long the fed will be on hold and 57% of respondents say the first cut doesn't come until september 2014 this number, that date was as early as early next year 31 respondents divided on the outlook, 42% the probability of a soft landing, 49% a recession. below 50%. on the fed rate outlook dialed back cuts they had priced in and seeing about 75 basis points of cuts by december 2024.

it had been as much as 125 basis points of cuts that's gone away diane from kpmg the fed is likely to be stuck in a hawkish holding pattern as it weighs how much the rout in the bond market can dent the armor of consumers with so much savings still in their bank accounts earning interest the inflation outlook shows the fed does not hit they're not forecast to hit the target even into 2025 with something in the fed doing more to bring it down right now here are the numbers 365, about where we are right now, where we end the year according to the average 286, next year, down a bit the fed still having work to do which is where the higher for longer comes growth slow down that was going to hit the economy at any time this year, now forecast to hit next year. 0.73 is the one you want to look at right there i will tell you we had numbers like that for 2023 they did not come to pass.

respondents on average see the stock market ending the year about where it is now, but notch something gains next year and rising by 13% by the end of 2025 carl pessimistic this year but maybe upside in years to come as those rates come down in the forecast. >> not far from a lot of strategists as well. thanks steve liesman. perfect place to start with our next guest at president biden, evercorp's julie emanuel and mark gianone joining us. i wonder how you're thinking about the fed relative to geopolitics, d.c., consumer, deficit spending and all the other concerns >> so that last report by steve liesman is a sigh of relief. investors couldn't have to worry about the fed is a very good thing. enough to worry about out there. in fact, we don't think that there is another hike left in the cycle. the next move will be a cut.

the history of the stock market is such that that tends to be very good on balance however, the fact that before steve's segment, we had war reporting from the battle front shows you that world is a little bit different this time and at 19 times earnings we're very respectful of seasonals. they tend to work often, but this may be a year where the consumer's confident holding in, impressively so, giving all of this geopolitics, but there are starting to see some subtle cracks. >> so don't add exposure to stocks is that your bottom line >> that's our bottom line. it's uncomfortable because, you know, look, we love the market last last october at the lows november and december strong seasonals. the narrative is different this time and the valuations we don't normally focus on that, but with yields are where they are and

geopolitics where it is, it's not an attractive time to add. >> mark, your view on this >> i mean, i think we agree as well that the -- obviously, that there's going to be no rate increase this week, but we are a little more concerned about the, you know, acceleration in economic data we've seen in the last few months, in fact, with gdp growth, you know, close to 5% in the third quarter, consumption still accelerating again in september, inflation showing some firming, the labor market showing some re re-acceleration and payroll employment, all of that will force the fed to need to raise a little more. we don't think the fed is quite done there it's not going to raise rates this week we think, but there december, i think the chances of another rate hike are quite elevated, we think. >> what -- >> but the rates have moved up a lot already and the market has

done that for the fed, which is what i think has changed the most we're having hot data but they seem attune to the fact we've seen the jump in long-term rates? >> absolutely. with the 45 basis points increase in the 10-year yield since the september meeting clearly financial conditions have tightened to some extent. but then the question is, is it really reflecting just a tightening in financial condition or reflecting the underlying strength of the economy. we think that a big part of that is reflecting the underlying strength of the economy and, therefore, not so clear that fed has to do a lot of offset here in terms of the funds rate there were already planning on hiking 25 basis points at the september meeting and given the strength in the data, they should have probably increased rates a little more than 25 basis points hike they were planning for then the question is how much does the 10-year yield increase like offset that

>> when you think about the strength in the economy, though, a lot of talk about the draw down in excess savings, especially outside of the top 20% let's say of income. delinquencies, the degree to which real estate lending has dried up, all of that, isn't the fed looking to where the puck is going? >> all these things to the average person on the street seem to be 30,000 foot concepts. in aggregate they tend to exert pressure on the system when you think about the savings it is likely to run out, by our calculation, middle of next year when the employment market is likely to begin showing it first signs of weakness. >> julian, i want to come back to the 19 multiple i can't help but think what are 7 or 8 stocks that represent 30% of the s&p most of which have higher multiples than 19, not all, and how you think about the composition of that index gives

that incredible overweathightin, not to mention the multiple. >> it's challenging. we saw these dynamics at the end of the '90s and early 2000s and you had a further correction in stocks part of our near term caution here is the fact that if you look at it, the russell 2000 small cap america made a new cycle low on friday whereas, you're still far away from the lows in the s&p and the nasdaq, but that is a less healthy message to your point >> julian, thanks. marc, good to see you guys appreciate it very much. >> after the break an exclusive with the executive chair and vice chair of giant shein breaking town where they see growth ahead and how consumers are holding up in this environment. don't miss that interview when we come right back

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let's talk retail and the retailer taking the world by force. shein executive chairman donald tang and marcelo claure, telling me that the chinese emers giant is one of the most global companies he's seen and discussed the health of the consumer, expansion in the u.s., and one of its kind strategy to capture market share take a listen when i asked about how the u.s. market was going. >> it is the largest and the most important market for us. >> and the biggest growth market >> it's a -- you know, the growth market has all the things to do with where you're coming from this is pretty much mature, not mature, but growing market, but we have relatively speaking other markets, younger, such as

brazil marcelo is looking after. >> when it comes to the growth in the u.s., marcelo, is shein taking share and who are they taking share from? >> i think shein as a company, pretty large in size, we're just getting started. if you look at the size of the retail market and the fashion market, you're talking it's a market that is in the trillions, right. and we're taking share i think from traditional retail will be basically to look at once you have a chance to go into europe and have the variety of products you can choose the lower prices we're getting faster to deliver good to our customer it becomes an experience you can hardly replicate. i've experienced, i have five daughters and i've seen how they go into the app and decide in a way where we're showing to customers that matters to them based on what they bought from

us in the past a lot of them are just basically moving to a large percentage of what they buy to buy directly from the app i think that share is coming from there. >> and value too i guess is important component. do you see any change in consumer behavior in the u.s. or otherwise given some of the shifting macro economic winds? >> we're still growing vo ery healthy robust way value for money is one of the key themes for our business. affordability, accessibility, availability. >> still growing. >> still growing. >> that's something to value, right. we're able to bring a lot more for less, and to make sure it's clear it's based on a unique business model traditional retail in many tases most of the capital is working capital, it's in inventory and stuff they didn't do a good job forecasting that eventually got a discount

in this case we're deciding product based on consumer needs and that allows us to bring, you know, affordable prices way better than traditional retail, which means, you know, value for money applies for everybody. everybody likes to get more with less, and that's a huge value position all over the world. >> marcelo and donald. you can catch more of my my interview with the executive chairman and vice chairman in the next hour of "squawk on the street" where we talk about, guys, this new deal that shein is doing where they have a partnership and licensing deal with forever 21, they're going to make forever 21 at shein using their supply chain and doing deals buying misguided intellectual property this week. a lot is going on for a company that is one of the most valuable startups, david. we, obviously, talked about whether they're headed for an ipo. what's clear from the interview is that they're just out there more

they're trying to be transparent and trying to educate members of congress in washington about the fact that they're a singapore-based company, they have a lot of factory exposure in china but trying to be more accountable when it comes to things like sourcing cotton and the forced labor and intellectu property and that sort of thing. they're out there talking about it more. >> i want to understand the business model a little more, though there are many who believe they're doing it more cheaply because they're using cheaper product and slave labor, so to speak. i don't mean -- well, that's what they think. what is his point, that they're able to respond to fashion trends so quickly that they're just more efficient than everybody else >> es. they do this made-to-order it's not fast fashion where the czars of the world have a bunch of designs that come out and have it all made they don't have an inventory it's made-to-order fashion so, they have these special

algorithm that shein has and the technology they have, and then they're able to sort of see what's working and then get that produced from their factories in china that they -- this is their secret saws and then it quickly -- >> the algorithm almost measures people's desires and then they can design it in real-time. >> that's what's changed the game i have some news from shein that says they are net profitable this year and showing record revenues for the first three quarters of this year. >> we'll hear more in the next hour meantime, check out the move in pinterest, surging, almost 20%, after strong guidance revenue up 11% bill ready will join us to break down those numbers

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as we close out the hour, want to get a few more names on the move spanning chips, autos and the airlines phil lebeau and kristina partsinevelos will break down the action phil, let's begin with you >> carl, let's start with jetblue having a terrible day. worst day since march of 2020. it comes down to the third

quarter, which was worse than expected they're blaming it on weather, jet fuel and capacity. q4 guidance way worse than what wall street was expecting. shares are down more than 20% today. also take a look at save, shares of save, which is spirit airlines jetblue and spirit, their antitrust trial begins today in boston take a look at stellantis. reporting q3 deliveries that basically were a little better than expected coming in shipments of 1.84 million. the shares are reflecting the optimism that is out there right now. even though the strike, they said, has cost them $3.2 billion in revenue two quick looks at a couple of important stocks >> let's get to kristina partsinevelos with more on the semis. kristina >> despite the q3 earnings beat,

plunging 20% after guidance fell short of expectations. comments echo carbide producer on semiconductor, shares falling 20% yesterday and falling today after management issued weak q4 guidance and warned of increased risk due to auto demand and high interest rates the auto and ev sector is weighing down. amd shares down 15%. analysts are concerned about data and launch of new a.i. set for december with lattice and semi off 20%, wolfspeed up a lot more volatility. mizuho says it is creating extra risks for all types of investors. >> can't help but notice that nvidia shares are actually down and the company is below $1 trillion market value for the

first time in a while. >> perhaps it will be up by next month for its earnings that has to do with the china export controls. >> yeah. >> that's why you're seeing it down. >> we talked about that journal story this morning >> it's not new, though. >> yeah. >> david, it's not new news. >> yeah. we talked about that in the 9:00 hour a lot more coverage. the markets overall to the point of nvidia and some other mega cap tech are pressuring the nasdaq, which is down a bit. "squawk on the street" comes right back ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business.

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just might be the answer. good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. vince reinhart, why he says the recent move in the bond market means the fed can keep rates at their current levels. an exclusive with the top executives at fashion giant shein. more on its plan to disrupt the industry and details on the expanded partnership with forever 21. pinterest surging on the heels of their results we have an update moments away. first, a check on the