♪ welcome to "power lunch," everybody. alongside courtney reagan, i'm tyler mathis coming up, 24 hours until the fed decision on interest rates markets expecting no change. but would that just be another pause or a sign that the fed is maybe done for this rate hiking cycle? plus, hitting the brakes on the demand for electric vehicles signs of a slow down leading one analyst to ask whether a global ev meltdown is coming. we'll dig into that, court. first a quick check on the markets here with a couple hours

left to go in trade, the dow would be higher if it were not caterpillar taking 80 points off of the dow concerns about the order backlog, that's weighing on the stock. shares of serepta getting crush after its setback for its drug failed to make the main goal of is a phase 3 tyler. fed is less than 24 hours away from the big decision on interest rates widely expected that the fed will keep rates unchanged after the economy is still under pressure and there's turmoil overseas let's discuss with chief economist at pnc, gus, welcome good to have you with us if we went back a year ago, many analysts, i don't know about you, were saying probably -- we're not going into recession now or soon, but maybe second half of '23 -- now most people are saying, '24 if we have a recession at all where are you on this recession, no recession in '24 question

>> i think the most likely outcome is we do get a mild recession starting around the middle of 2024 there's no question but the labor market has been stronger than we were expecting, that household spending has held up better than we were expecting, but we do continue to feel the drag from higher interest rates. i think we'll feel more of that over the next six, nine months or so. and so given the inversion in the yield curve, given the fact that we have not felt the full impact of fed tightening, i do think we'll see that mild recession starting sometime around the middle of next year >> so, does that suggest to you -- does the fact that you and many others see sort of the same thing and that many people attribute the probability of a recession to what the fed has done, as higher rates ripple through the economy, does that suggest to you that maybe the fed is done? >> it certainly does suggest that the fed is done i would not be surprised at all if we do not see the fed tighten again. between the meeting that we get

tomorrow and the next one in mid december, we'll have two more jobs reports to give an indication of how the labor market is and sentiment in how consumer spending is in the fourth quarter all of that together will suggest that inflation is slowing towards 2%, that the economy is softening and that that means that the fed does not need to raise rates again. >> gus, nast sort of what i was wondering inflation as you bring that up, obviously, still well higher than the intended target. do we need a recession to get inflation closer to 2% if the fed is done f they don't do anything else, how is it going to get lower >> you know, just a softer labor market than out right contraction. i think there's still about 40% probability that we get a soft landing, where economic growth slows substantially. higher unemployment rate around 4% and that could cool off inflationary pressures enough to bring it down to 2% without a

recession. that being said, i think the more likely outcome is given all the tightening we have experienced does lead to that mild recession sometime next year >> since the last meeting, of course, the war between israel and hamas has occurred does that add to the likelihood that the fed stays put and pauses or maybe is done? >> in the near term, yes i think that obviously there's more uncertainty out there and that that is a reason for the fed to pause however, if we do see a wider conflict the middle east, if energy prices move higher, and in particular, if we start to see energy inflation bleed into core inflation that is inflation excluding food and energy, then i think the fed may need to raise rates again in response to that so, the key question is what happens to energy prices because of the middle east what happens to core inflation because of the middle east and if we do start to see a additional inflationary

pressures the fed may raise rates again and that increases the likelihood we get a recession. >> interesting forecast. gus, thank you very much have a good day. >> thank you turning back to the markets, which are now higher after some early losses the dow and s&p both trying for a second-straight day of gains how should investors position we were just talking about. we have senior portfolio manager at north star asset and new face to cnbc. welcome. great to have you here you just heard our discussion with gus i'll have you sort of pick up on what you think the fed will do and then how you would be positioning investors from there. >> yeah. thanks for having me, kelly. no, so, we are with the market that fed is in wait and see place here having put through 500 bases points of interest increases over the last 18, 19 months or so in terms of how we're positioned, you know, the only

thing we feel very confident and certain about is that we expect higher degree of uncertainty and volatility in the market with that we're very focussed on risk in that frame work, if you think about it, we're looking at bonds that we can get at 5 to 6% yield. secured by contractual obligations by the u.s. government that sounds pretty good to us right here, kelly. so, we are where it makes sense. where our clients are underweight their fixed income we are building out fixed income ladders for them and getting them that 5 to 6% income while maintaining flexibility for them as well. >> it is really interesting obviously with what's going on right now because we haven't seen interest rates this high in many, many years more than 15 years or so, i believe now you are looking to fix income products particularly for a subset of investors perhaps that are more cautious or less risk averse when you're looking at equities versus bonds i find it very interesting here when you're talking about the

wealth transfer. why is that something important to consider when you're looking at bond investing v ing versus investing that we haven't seen in this environment in some time >> absolutely. the interest rate going up to the 5% range and this new monetary cycle we are in, you know, for years, retirees and other savers have not been able to get any interest on their securities all of a sudden there's interest coming you know, i just recently read the u.s. government is paying somewhere close to 600 billion in interest. that's going to go all the way up to 1 trillion that's going to someone. that's going to the savers when we think about the demographics for our country with the number of retirees coming on board, one in six americans is over the age of 65. this cohort is going to grow by 35% by 2030. those people do need that income

so from that perspective we think it is actually a very good tail wind. the other thing i would say, kelly, we still believe very much believe that sticking to long-term strategic asset allocation is the way to go. you know, again, depends on the time horizon for various investors but time and time again what we have learned from the market is staying invested is the best way to have those long-term returns. but when we think about staying invested in the market, we want to own those high quality stocks for companies with balance sheets that are strong that have good cash flows, that are not dependent on the financial markets for their financing needs. so within that, we see plenty of ideas as well. >> as courtney has been pointing out, the idea here is that we haven't seen this kind of interest rate environment in 15 years or so. and over the past couple of years, you have been benefitted by staying very short in your maturities, if you were buying treasuries, for example. you still are. but are we getting close to that

point where maybe you want to lock in some longer-term duration as well on the theory that maybe the fed is getting close to being done? >> right tyler, when we take that viewpoint, we don't know what the future holds but what we do know, right, we are getting higher yield now than we were before. what we want to do is diversify our duration as well duration exposure as well. longer term, you know this, you have speakers here all the time that talk about the deficits, all kinds of uncertainty that we're dealing with, increased social, political polarization the pressure we think is still upwards on the interest rates. so we just want to diversify across the duration curve there. >> let's talk about a couple of the stocks you like. i'm going to say i'm the target of one of them, striker, which is replacement knees and hips and other things i'm right in that demographic.

and you also say home depot is a demographic play for the baby boomers who are going to stay put and remodel rather than move. >> yeah, absolutely. so when we -- i just told -- talked about the ageing demographics you know, people might be getting older but they still want to live very active lifestyles. >> we do, yes, yes doggone it you're right. >> with that, we like companies like striker, leader in knee and hip replacements we continue to see very favorable long-term demand companies like that. we like benaher, it's a company that provides tools and diagnostics for drug development and discovery. and yes, there's been short-term overhang related to the covid-19 pandemic inventory overhang. longer term, willing to take that 5 to 10-year viewpoint, we think there's increased

investment in drug discovery and development. finally, you're right. home depot, as you know, seniors might be ageing but they want to stay in their homes and they want their homes to be comfortable for them so more demand for retro fitting those homes. not to mention, majority of home depot's business is repair and remodelling and retro fitting. think of leaky faucets. >> yeah, absolutely. they do talk about renovation in the age of homes really that drives it more so than other things in housing market i am curious, you're talking about these ideas for long-term, patient investors that have more risk appetite, five to ten years. if you're less -- horizon is less than 5 to 10 years, saying no to equities all together. >> no, we don't want to say no to equities. one of the big things is we don't know the future is uncertain. and it's interesting one of the reasons study after study shows it's best to stick with strategic asset allocation and stay invested because the

worst days in the market are followed by the best we don't want to miss out on the best days because that's where the return comes from. it's getting to that right asset am location that's really important. and understanding what your short-term liquidity needs are and positioning with respect to that >> then if we can wrap it up, today is a better day as was yesterday certainly if you're bullish on the markets but it's come off relatively rough month. seems like sentiment is negative or concerned i'm hearing from you and gus who was the guest that joined us before do you agree with that sentiment or cautious or negative or uncertain about what's to come >> it's more related to high degree of uncertainty, right high degree of uncertainty more volatility. coming into this year, most investors were cautious. the market went up and then has given up a lot of those gains as we're heading here into the final throes of the year so it's difficult to kind of

know on the short-term basis yes, there's plenty of things to be worried about i think offsetting that is loot of that sentiment is baked into the equity prices. and that's where we think you can actually pick up these great opportunities that have come up, that valuations have derated quite a bit and positioned for long-term returns quite well >> all right yeah home depot is down 10% year to date striker, one of your picks is up 10% year to date but obviously you think it has room to run over the next five to ten years it's great to have you on cnbc thank you for joining us today >> thank you let's get the trader's take on what to expect from the fed tomorrow and how the markets may react. rick santelli joining us live. >> reporter: yes, courtney indeed a chart that started a week ago monday, that was a key date. first of all, we could debate as to intraday violation of 5%. but there's been no close above 5% the 23rd was an outside day and

since then we had a contained range. look at 10s and 30s, yes we are hovering very close to the highest levels since 2007. 16 years the high close is 49 t in 10s, 511 for 30s, not far from where they're trading now. maybe one of the bigger stories is the bank of japan didn't do as much as many thought they would be they basically tweaked on the reference with regard to 1% ten-year look at this chart, the dollar is at the strongest, yen at the weakest in 33 years going back to 1990. but tomorrow is the big day. the fed probably doesn't do anything but there's a lot to talk about. dave misso, how are you doing? >> hey, rick >> quickly, in front of tomorrow's fed decision, first of all, do you think they're doing anything with rates? >> no. they're going to keep rates where they are hold tight. >> you saw with gdp was last week, right? >> yeah. >> almost 5%. >> yeah. >> do you think we're in a 5% economy looking through the

windshield versus rear-view mirror >> my pocketbook doesn't say that >> you would think so, right you would think so but they're always behind the curve. so, we'll see what ends up happening. >> now, when you think about the dynamics of interest rates and 5%, we haven't closed above it, but there's been significant talk that there's a lot of movement out of equities into fixed income the opposite of there is no alternative. your thoughts? >> well, that's what they kind of tell you. they go with that convenient excuse i don't necessarily know if i buy it, though. >> why wouldn't you buy it you think rates could go higher? >> i absolutely think rates can go much higher just because they might come down a little bit in the short-term, in the longevity, i think we're in a bull market. >> the market somewhat agrees with you since we had that violation of 5% on the 23rd, the range has been basically 479 to 499, very

tight range. real quickly, my last question, a lot of debate going on, there's a plug, talking about the janet yellen treasury, great opportunity your thoughts? >> well, everybody and their mother refinanced rates when they were at 3% mortgages. all got -- everybody, whatever except the fed except the fed they didn't do anything. >> the sergeant the primary dealers were nervous about l liquidity and matures. you give a concession, they'll show up. your final thoughts? >> they buy the offer above the offer. >> ten year hit the all time low, half a percent. mortgage rates were still hovering at 2% they could have issued a 2% ten year, well above it and they would look back and think what today? >> they would look like heroes but then they're always behind the curve. >> well, thank you very much, dave >> thank you, rick. >> happy halloween and tyler and courtney, back to you. >> let me ask you a question, rick three years ago, should the

treasury have issued a 50 or 100 year bond at interest rates that would today look incredibly low. >> you know what, as much as i would like to say yes to that, i would say no to that 50 and 100 year didn't have any deep liquidity pool. it would have been an issue. making liquidity and issue for more 10z and 30s doesn't make sense to me. winston churchill said, what we're arguing about is price they could have made a price concession and done long-term maturities 50s and 100s might have been a bridge too far. >> rick santelli, good answer. thank you, sir >> live from washington tomorrow, starting at 1:00 p.m., hitting the decision at 2:00 p.m. and we will go right through press conference at 2:30 lot to talk about. a lot happening tomorrow very busy week but first, the strikes are in the rear-view mirror out in auto land but there are still roadblocks

ahead for the automakers coming up, we'll hear from an analyst who is examining the possibility of a global ev meltdown not just a slow down, a meltdown stay with us as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises. as a fiduciary, i promise to be the financial steward that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

welcome back, everybody. our guest says there's more to

fear he warns of a potential kbloebl ev meltdown as manufacturers increasingly report slowing electric car demand. joining us now is emmanuel rossner, deutsche bank auto analyst. a meltdown, not just a slow down. companies have planned massive investment on the premise of much faster adoption of evs. this is not playing out. now we're hearing from corporates that they're pulling back or canceling all together these investments. just last week ford basically said they're not going to spend 12 billion out of the 50 billion they were going to spend in evs. gm pushed out a second ev factory by about a year. they're pushing out some new moe dells and they're going to be

launched later on. it is essentially a real meltdown of expectations which has resulted in a meltdown of stock prices >> what could change that picture? i would think way higher gas prices might change that picture for one thing. more affordable evs might change that picture for number two. am i on the right track there? >> you're definitely on the right track there. affordability is the name of the game this is what's crucially lacking from evs right now evs are more expensive on their commercial side. early adopters didn't care and bought them. average buyer is saying why would i pay 25% more of privilege of driving an ev there's a lack of affordable model, of affordable evs that's something that unfortunately we think will take time to be corrected the very reason why gm is

saying, hey, we'll take a pause, slow things down and then maybe issue these new models later on is so they can essentially try to work on lowering these costs and come out with some cheaper, more affordable model. that will take some time probably another couple years. even tesla, we're long-term bullish on tesla it is struggling with affordability, lowering prices consistently and not going to have a more affordable model for another couple years for 2025. >> they really lowered the price on the model x, which was a high price model. they've taken that way down. court? >> emmanuel, i'm just wondering, you're talking about price and certainly that's a factor that makes a lot of sense but what about the infrastructure i'm a non-ev owner and have to admit, it makes me nervous to have a car that i know i need to find a place to charge, which might be harder to find than a traditional gas station. is that still a worry? or am i in the minority? >> no, absolutely. it's still a real concern.

i think a big piece of driving ev adoption is going to be able essentially address some of these concerns tesla has done a really good job at it. obviously the network of tesla charger is very dense. so you don't have to worry about it as much it's integrated as part of your drive and your gps, where you should is stop and recharge. for just about every other ev, the network hasn't been as dense and it remains a real concern. in the end, what it boils down to is will people sort of take that step, make that bet when it also costs more money? so all of it needs to be addressed. i think affordability will probably be the biggest lever. >> if i'm interested in investing in the automobile sector broadly defined, am i wiser investing in a company that is sort of power train agnostic, in other words, that makes the seats, the side panels, the oh, i don't know, the gear shift knob, then the

oems, the manufacturers? >> absolutely. and that really is our thesis here it is incredibly difficult to make a bet now on the power train mix because it's really heading in the wrong direction and could be extremely costly. i have good secular growth and adoption curve for their technology then you can have incredibly strong earning and revenue growth one of the names we often speak is about mobileon. it's a pure play on autonomous driving. they don't care whether that technology goes into an ev, whether it goes on commercial engine it's all about will cars become more autonomous. this is a good example. >> emmanuel rossner, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. return of the mac. apple unveiling a host of new products at its squarery fast

event. we'll bring the highlights for you and the key announcements to come. plus, hitting turbulence jetblue shares falling to a 12-year low after forecasting a wider than expected loss for the current quarter. we'll trade it in lunch. "power lunch" is back in two t o. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

welcome back to "power lunch. as we get ready for tomorrow's fed meeting, let's turn our attention to one of the most rate-sensitive areas of the economy housing of course. for the latest impact, let's bring in diana olic. >> hey, courtney it's frozen before winter. but one part of it is still hot and that is home prices. take a look. prices in august nationally were 2.6% higher than august of last year that's according to the s&p schiller index up from the 1% increase in july and also about 6% higher than when prices bottomed at the start of this year interesting, though, the city's seeing the biggest gains are not the pandemic hot spots quite the opposite chicago, new york and detroit led the pack meanwhile, formerly strong markets like las vegas, phoenix and san francisco are all in the negative year over year. the regional differences are now much bigger than they have been. that has to do with what we have seen in the markets historically

more affordable. granted this report is from august and it's a three-month running average so it really goes back to june. take a look at where mortgage rates have gone in that time i don't know if we have that chart. i guess not. but we started june at 6.85% and then climbed pretty steadily, now hovering below just 8% that's a big difference on a monthly payment. there's still demand out there the slow down in sales is causing a slight uptick in supply, nowhere near normal levels, courtney. >> we have this lawsuit involving what is it, the housing authority? can you tell us about what you know about this? >> yeah. actually it's just broken recently that's why we're seeing some of the stocks especially zel row taking a big hit kansas city jury found the national association of realtors and two brokerages, keller williams and home services of america, berkshire hathaway company, found them guilty of to colluding to inflate or maintain

high commissions through their clear cooperation role now they have gotten a comment from the nar says nar rules prioritize consumers, support market-driven pricing and promote business compensation. they say this matter is not close to being final as we will appeal the jury's verdict. now, this is all about whether or not consumers are getting a fair deal when you have real estate agents, brokerages all working together the lawsuit claims rules violated anti-trust laws and inflated fees paid to buyer's agents by requiring a listing agent to compensate a boyer's agent for listing property on the mls. anybody out there trying to buy or sell a home knows that these fees are very confusing and we never know, you know, from brokerage to brokerage what the fees will be between the buyer's agent, the seller's agent this is a lawsuit that did obviously go against the realtors. but they said they will appeal it as have the other parties in the matter but again, it's tanking the stocks >> very interesting. thank you very much for that

report and the color there on that lawsuit that makes some sense for what's going on in the housing market or the stocks at least. our next guest says while home prices have remained stable and in some areas as diana reported risen, market challenges continue. as diana also reported let's bring in danielle hail why don't i start by getting your reaction to that lawsuit that diana was just reporting on do you have any thoughts there >> you know, i think there are a lot of legal issues at stake as an economist i can say that we know that affordable challenges are important for consumers right now. so i think making sure that consumers are informed and in the market with good representation i think is really important to making what is for many the biggest decision of their lives, the biggest financial decision of their lives. i think it's important that consumers are informed and work with professionals now, as far as the pricing and the legal implications of that pricing, i'm going to leave that to the lawyers to talk about.

>> the transparency it seems to me has -- it's been an opaque process of who pays whom who is really paying for it. i don't mean to get into this deeply because i'm not really skilled enough to talk it through. but there is a lot of opacity shall i say to use an s.a.t. work in that thing but let's talk about the market dynamics a little bit more it would seem what diana said would be true that in the existing home market, prices have remained relatively stable despite rising interest rates. and the reason is because supply is so low. and so that means you would have low supply and demand, which is stable or rising, so that means people are willing to pay more for those low supply homes, right? >> yeah. so, that's consistent with our data we do see that the number of homes on the market has declined the third month of decrease in our september data and if you look at where we are

compared to four years ago, before the pandemic, there are more than 40% fewer homes on the market today so, put another way for every five homes that would have been on the market four years ago, today's buyers are seeing just three. so even if there aren't as many buyers as there were in that pre-pandemic period and we know that there likely are not given what's happening with home sales and at long-term lows, we can see that the market is relatively competitive and pricing really hasn't budged a ton. those numbers that diana reported on as she mentioned our three-month averages with the most recent data coming into august, pricing has softened a bit according to our numbers the median listing price was up just 0.4% in september so a little more softening, but a surprising amount of resilience given how much costs have gone up and how challenging it is for buyers in this market today. >> i was just going to say that, danielle there was some stats sent out by our data team. the 30-year fixed rate mortage

march 11, 2022, 4.9% the prices of homes are not coming down to equalize for that. i mean, why is that? is that simply because the inventory is so tight and that's making the price so resilient? >> yeah. right now limited inventory is one of the biggest drivers i think when mortgage rates first started going up, you also had home prices that were already high and so you had a lot of existing homeowners that could sell and maybe make a move using a lot of the equity they built up in their homes. so that was an early driver as rates started to rise. but now we know that a lot of existing homeowners are choosing instead to stay put. they are not putting ting theirs on the market. we see the number of new listings on the market come down from a year ago and this is on top of low levels that we have seen the lowest levels that we have seen essentially ever in our data so existing homeowners are choosing not to list their homes for sale that's driving the number of homes on the market down low and it's raising the importance

of new construction and newly-built homes in the market. our analysis at realtor.com shows the number of new homes on the market is roughly about 30% of the market compared to about 15% historically so, when people are out there shopping, they have a lot more new options to choose from than they have historically and at the same time, builders are willing to buy down mortgage rates to meet their budget that could be an area where new construction exists, builders have been more flexible and we see that reflected in this sales data as existing home sales have declined, new home sales have actually fared somewhat better. >> that was an interesting point i was going to ask you about with the builders actually sort of offering some relief to some homeowners making new home sales or new homes a little more attractive than existing i guess beyond that, i mean, have we seened continued migration to lower cost areas of the country as we remain sort of

hybrid remote work dynamic in a lot of environments? are people just saying, it is just too expensive to do this, one way to lower the cost, move entirely to another lower cost area of the country? >> the data suggests that some home shoppers and even renters have that option and are able to pursue affordability by relocating realtor.com has cross market demand report it shows we still have an outsized share of home shoppers looking for homes somewhere other than they live and predominantly looking for warmer weather and affordability. so no surprise that the south is doing well we also see a lot of interest in the midwest and pricing trends kind of conform to that. we know that the biggest price run-ups in recent months have been in mid western markets a lot of affordable. similar trends in the rental market overall nationwide rents have slowed in parts of the midwest and more affordable parts in the northeast, we continue to see rents go up. so buyers and renters alike are

looking for affordability and trying to move if they can to find it. >> interesting stel. thank you very much. i'm from the midwest midwest is best, just saying, tyler. >> it's nice there the living is good. >> it is. let's get over to christina partsinevelos. >> the strike on a refugee camp in gaza was targeting a senior hamas commander. army spokesperson told cnn that israel was behind the attack on the refugee camp today a local hospital claimed dozens were killed in the blast but nbc news has not independently confirmed those numbers. it's the largers of the eight refugee camps. white house officials say americans trapped inside of gaza still have not been able to get out. but more than 60 trucks carrying aid were allowed through egypt's border crossing today. the white house says those trucks contained water and food but still no fuel. as israel warns hamas could take it for military use. a federal judge dismissed

brett favre's defamation lawsuit. shannon sharp used unconstitutional protected speech when he criticized favre's connection to a welfare spend case in mississippi during a sports broadcast favre sued sharpe in february and called his statements controversially false. back over to you. >> thanks very much. christina partsinevelos. ahead on "power lunch," shares of caterpillar shrinking. we will trade it in pre-stock launch "power lunch" will be right back rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view?

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and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome to "power lunch." >> if you bought candy this year, you probably noticed it was a little more expensive. >> it was. >> that's because sugar prices are hovering around a 12-year high cocoa at an all-time high

thanks to weather conditions exacerbated by el nino hitting crops. india, the world's largest sugar producer hasn't gotten enough rain in the regions where it's grown. that led the country to ban exports for the first time in seven years in an effort to contain domestic prices. given india's key trader the move is pushing up global prices for cocoa is market is heavily concentrated with west africa producing about 75% of global supply last year there was too much rain and now el nino means it might be too dry david branch from wells fargo food institute noted that requires specific weather conditions with not a lot of room for error makes them vulnerable to climate change one more commodity to point out, uranium rising 50% this year amid renewed interest in nuclear power. just hit $73, which is notable because the last time it was that high was february 2011,

just before the fukushima accident the ura and urnm jumping today we are experiencing the industry's best-ever market fundamentals so three under the radar commodities out performing >> very interesting stuff. thank you, pippa. apple's product event may be finished but the street is still eagerly awaiting the latest earnings on thsduray we'll get you ready for that when "power lunch" returns

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a big week for apple with earnings expected on thursday, but last night the company holding a big event focussed on its max. steve kovach joins us now from san francisco with more. so was this super scary fast event, steve >> yeah, very spooky, courtney look, apple was revealing its newest chip from max last night, calling the m3 because it's the third generation that's going into the mac book pro and imac desk stops starting next week. now, there are three versions announced yesterday of the m3 chip, the base version, the m3 and m3 pro and m3 max each with more performance than the last other than that, these are the same computers that apple has been selling for the last couple years except now that mac book pro comes in black we're not expecting this

announcement to revive the mac business which has been slumping all year for example, sales were down 7% in the june quarter and will find out last quarter's results, like you said on thursday. but more interesting than the computers and those chips themselves, we're setting up a new pc fight with computer chips based on these arm designs qualcomm last week revealed its first pc chip that will start shipping next year by the way, qualcomm, best known for making smart phone chips and nvidia the ai chip darling and amd reportedly doing the same. now, this is all bad news for intel. its chips aren't as powerful or as efficient as the arm-based chips. you can get a lot more battery life and performance when you put those in laptops but intel ceo brushed off the concerns last week saying, he doesn't think the competition will be significant, court. >> interesting stuff i want to go back, though to the buzz ahead of apple's results. always a really important one. the shares have really

underperformed what are you expecting >> yeah, interesting enough, it's underperformed in the run-up between what we saw in the summer, usually the summer is a good run-up but actually been the opposite. look, the big question going into earnings is what is the guidance for this holiday quarter? can apple return to growth apple already said they're expecting it's going to be their fourth quarter in a row, a full fiscal year of declining sales this coming holiday quarter, comps will be a lot easier, courtney, because of the covid shutdowns that impacted production last year so, and there's an extra week last year. so it's going to be a little bit easier for apple to show its return to growth even today, as recently as this morning, court, some analysts trimming estimates for the holiday quarter. >> thank you very much. the price of gold hovering near $2,000 an ounce with some experts calling it a better investment than stocks or bonds right now. so how does our trader feel

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time for today's "three stock lunch" today, we're taking a look at three big movers

first up, caterpillar beating analyst estimates and the stock is down about 6% on a weak outlook with signs of slowing machinery demands. here with our trades is boris schlossberg with bk asset management boris, what's your trade on caterpillar? >> see, caterpillar, long term is definitely a buy because infrastructure is a woefull piece of our industry and we've been gone decades and to me, caterpillar is a long-term buy i think a more intelligent trade right now is to simply sell an investment while you're waiting. if a stock comes in, it comes 3% cheaper and because of geopolitical concerns and long term rate, but overall it's a buy. >> jetblue 12-year low and the airline forecasts more losses for the fourth quarter and gets ready to

head to court for the spirit antitrust trial. boris, what's your trade on jetblue at $3.71 >> it's literally a punt at this point. jet blue has problems from every angle and the big problem is the merger of spirit if the department of justice does not let that go through it will be a problem not only because it will break up the merger, but because spirit itself will become a formidable competitor to jetblue. secondly, the macro environment is is more difficult for them it's a tough trade unless because of some doj clearance and then you might be able to get a stock that's two times from this level. so you have to expect the fact that you will either lose your money or double it at this point. >> finally gold, the commodity testing the key $2,000 level for the first time since may boris, what's your trade on gold >> so 220s are the return of the 1970s, all we need are bell

bottom jeans i think gold is interesting and it's the hidden trade of 2024 especially if geopolitical tensions rise up and if they become a big concern we're watching the 2,000 level very carefully if it holds around these levels it's a trade to the upside there are three things you need to see gold go up and it ideally goes all of the way to 2100. you see volume and three, it makes the cover of "baron's" it will have retail interest. to me, gold is a good trade at this point and could be through 2024 if things get worse. >> got it. thank you very much for picking our three stocks for three stock lunch boris schlossberg. we'll be right back with a couple of more stories you need to know about. help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment

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available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. we only have a couple of minutes left in the show and we have a bunch more stories that we want to tell you about, so we want to get right to it. the new data confirmed the price of candy is growing at a frightful pace according to data semby. they are now up, those candy, 13% from last october, more than double the 6% increase of groceries overall. as pippa said, it's sugar which comes from india and the same affecting cocoa prices

>> we give bags to our doorman to give out and we thought, my gosh, why are they so expensive? now i know. gen z and millennials are treating themselves to dupes which are duplicates, to buy luxu luxury items without the price tag. you see lululemon dupes and it is just a smart way to shop. being from the midwest we used to brag about it >> these are knockoffs, basically, right >> yeah, but that's been happening in fashion for many, many, many years yes. it's the expensive version and someone else makes a little less expensive version and it was something you didn't want to talk about, but now people are proud of it. >> americans are increasingly getting paid for not doing work. growth and paid time off is widening for the number of hours for which workers get paid and for which they'reon the job.

employers have retained and attract workers in the hot labor market if you're more productive and you're happier as a worker. >> it's also the kind of benefit that i always say it doesn't cost you anything. >> exactly >> it costs you the worker that's not going to be there that day, but it's not like a wage increase. be sure to tune into the fed decision tomorrow live from washington thanks for watching "power lunch". >> and "closing bell" starts right now. all right. courtney, thank so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner leaf from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour, and the fed decision tomorrow, apple on thursday jobs report end the week and those events surely to decide whether the best month of the year historically for stocks gets going with a boom or bust in the meantime your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation feels like a wait and see for the markets as the stocks go for the second straight up day. >> s&p, two-thirds, nasdaq's