attract workers in the hot labor market if you're more productive and you're happier as a worker. >> it's also the kind of benefit that i always say it doesn't cost you anything. >> exactly >> it costs you the worker that's not going to be there that day, but it's not like a wage increase. be sure to tune into the fed decision tomorrow live from washington thanks for watching "power lunch". >> and "closing bell" starts right now. all right. courtney, thank so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner leaf from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour, and the fed decision tomorrow, apple on thursday jobs report end the week and those events surely to decide whether the best month of the year historically for stocks gets going with a boom or bust in the meantime your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation feels like a wait and see for the markets as the stocks go for the second straight up day. >> s&p, two-thirds, nasdaq's

green. russell's green and yields are green and we'll tell you about those in a second and it doesn't mean there aren't big movers as the final stretch in caterpillar reports earnings and words of softening demand in china and it is down 6% and how about vf corp cuts its dividend and look at the stock down 15% and pinterest surging on its own earnings near 19%. elsewhere, financials higher definitely a defensive tilt somewhat today utilities remain one of the better sectors, there you go, but financials are leading the way. the ten-year holding steady below 4.9% 4.87 is where we are as we begin the final stretch. it does take us to the talk of the tape the great debate over where stocks are heading over the next couple of months, whether seasonality can spur stocks higher into years end. let's ask liz young with me here at post 9. welcome back >> good to be here

>> what do you think seasonality definitely gets better december 2nd best, good riddance to the last three, but you've been cautious, so what do you see now? >> the three months in a row that we've had since the most recent top in july have been orderly, but tough and persistently tough and it seems to me like there are people looking for more reasons to sell than reasons to buy and we continue to have this downward momentum and we're not really getting a lot of reasons to stop doing that granted, we didn't have a catastrophe and there's been some sort of negative shock and there continue to be headwinds which is the good thing. we know what the big risks are out there, but there continues to be this momentum and sentiment that we're just not sure we're getting to the end probably of the hiking cycle when will those legs kick in and how bad will they be >> that seems to be central question those who are cautious, if not negative on the market, j.p. morgan was on halftime.

>> yes. >> and talked about the headwinds in the macro the fundamentals will slow and the lagged effect. on and on and on and on and that will ultimately mean earnings are too high and the stock market is as well, and then the stock market's going to correct as a result of all of that how do you counter that? what is the counter to that? that the economy remains strong enough inflation comes down and the fed's done and earnings are okay how do you build a case against it >> i think the counter, and i believe somebody it might have been josh said it something along the lines that the idea that the consumer holds out until this is all over, that even the lower end consumer can stay supported until inflation comes down and we get more clarity about rates. i'm not going to counter debravko we're going to see more slowing and we forget that we had four

75 basis point hikes in a row from last june to last november. i don't think we've seen the effect of all of those and we've had 150 basis points in smaller quantities, but i don't think we've seen all of that, and the other thing is we talked about these long and variable legs the market doesn't really lag so much anymore the market doesn't lag fed decisions and in pack, it leads fed decisions for the most part and the economy lags what happens with the fed, and we still haven't seen all of that >> it's hard to mount a counter argument against that. other than to say nothing about this cycle has been normal you could easily say and history would be on your side when the fed raises rates to the degree that they do, there is an obvious lag effect that probably takes hold sooner than it has this time because it hasn't really taken hold yet and then it leads to earnings falling apart, the economy falling apart

and the stock market falling apart, but dare i say this time is different so much money was in the system, the consumer is much stronger than we ever thought they were they still are i know it's to the bottom, and this time time it's different. the still are emlus in the system and the lag effects, inflation can cult down and we'll be fine. >> there's a wide range of possibilities. >> is that outlandish? >> no. >> you can say yes if you think it is. >> i would put it on the tails of the bell curve. i wouldn't put it as the central idea and the central thing they think will actually come true. the other thing is before the pandemic started we weren't exactly in a really strong position we were heading into a recession or many were expecting a recession and bee had a lot of weakness in the economy in late 2019 and we didn't come into that in a great place and

returning to that place wasn't a euphoric condition that can say we were running at a high pace and everything will be fine. the reality of the stimulus that went into the system is that all it does, and there are different forces at play and the pandemic had some effects on supply chains and stimulus drives the inflation issue, as well so now taking all of that back out, when we talk about legs what we try to do with monetary policy, the grand we, and what the fed tries to do with monetary policy is to constrict capital in order to slow down the demand and take money away from people and businesses so they stop making so much. >> you can make the argument rather unsuccessful in doing that at this point >> that's correct. >> 4.9% gdp growth would say they've been unsuccessful in doing that to this point i don't think they'll remain unsuccessful i think they're going to get what they want at some point, and i think that point is

quickly approaching and we talked about earnings a little bit and the idea that earnings will have to come down earnings have come down. we've had over 50% of companies report so far this quarter from the s&p, but of the ones that have reported, q4 earnings have been revised down 5% so the idea that q4 was supposed to be originally 9.4% growthiary over year and that's come way down off of what we were expecting. 2024 expectation are probably next so what you're seeing in the markets after earnings reports after they beat on the top line and the bottom line, they're still getting punished because guidance has not been what people have been working for. >> let's bring in greg branch in from the veritas group >> good to be here i have an especially lift on my hands today. liz is cautious and i think by now we know where you stand. what is the counter argument to

any of it? because i can see the perspective of those who have the points of view that you and liz do so what if i say build on the case that it is different this time ai is so transformational that it's going to change the game in ways that we are just getting our arms around. tech in and of itself is deflationary infrastructure spending is transformational and the way that we will onshore manufacturing in this country. the consumer is somehow going to stay in there because the job losses that some predicted at the beginning of this tightening cycle are not going to materialize anywhere to the degreeing that some out this they would and somehowing the best case beats the worst case in your% perspective here. >> so i harken back to the question that you asked liz.

that's outlandish. yes, it is. >> i said if it was outlandish liz could say it, and i'm glad you said it. >> i say it with greater comfort today having been the target of those objections that you now find hard to make for the last six months. >> is it just me having a hard time hearing greg? i'm not sure guys in the control room i'm told they can hear you okay. i couldn't hear you all that well, and i wanted to make sure our viewers could, too forgive me peck up your thought there >> so let me pick out three specific things in what you just said everything may be very well true about what you said about tech, but when will we see that, scott? and so the impact of ai on an economy basis may not be felt for another two or three years yes, those laying out the infrastructure like nvidia will see the results immediately, but in terms of a broader effect on

the economy that will take some time i think in term of the health of the consumer, i think you'll know what i'll say by now. keep an eye on the delinquency rates. it has shot up, almost a full point. credit card delinquencies have doubled in a couple of quarters and those new credit cards and those credit cards that have a duration of less than a year are well above pre-pandemic delinquency rates. and so the consumer's not in great shape and lastly, one or the other. to say that we're not going to see a softening in the labor market is to say that the fed will continue to work, and we can't have a disinflationary environment with the labor market where it is right now >> why could have inflation continue to come down which it

is i'm not saying you you have on have employment to the level that it is right now and you haveto have some softening, bu you don't vot to the cat straveng in terms of what the fed's done and then they might take the terminal rate to 6% or 7% and that would destroy the employment market. you can get inflation to come down and it is actually coming down i'm going to quibble with a couple of first things and let me first state that i'm not advocating for anything catastrophic yesterday when i said my terminal rate was 6% and that was seen as somewhat catastrophic and we're 50 basis points away from that. so i don't think an incremental basis points will fire at brimstone. the notion and when you quibble, scott. the notion that we are seeing inflation decline is a misnomer.

have we seen a step down yes. that is past tense it is not current tense, and so we are not seeing current disinflation the monthly numbers says unequivocally that that is not factual. court has grown from 30 to 40 bases bones bases points every month for a year once it becomes favorable and we start to see the numbers less numbers and we will start to see that poignantly. we are not getting current inflation which is why we're not seeing a softening of the labor market we'll get to the 2% level and i believe them until there's a reason why we shouldn't. >> i could give you many reason, with all due respect to the fed why you shouldn't necessarily believe what they say. >> i believe they're right about

what they say. >> the cycle has been sort of littered with things that just haven't panned out the way that they expected whether it was inflation being transitory or certainly they've gotten -- they've gotten the economy wrong. i mean, they thought the economy was going to be weaker at this point than it actually is. so, you know, you want to put your whole faith and trust in the fed from this moment, i would say be careful with that >> scott, i think you know better than most that i'd never put my whole faith and trust in the fed. i was one of the few people saying that they should raise rates out of jackson hole 2021 so i've been more critical of them than most the differ everyone yag i'm making, there are mathematics and then there are opinions. i don't listen to their opinions about whether they're done raising or not, as long as they tell me that they need to get down to 2% i'll read the data for myself and say whether their job is done or not, so i put weight on

that >> but if they're going to magmaticly say that 4. 3% is the level of correlation, i'm not going to redo all of that math and i'll take the word for the math and not necessarily their opinions. >> let's talk about what break business the market so to speak or what perhaps keeps it okay. i'm thinking of mega-cap tech because that's where the strong points have been throughout this, otherwise down year for the broader market you look under the surface that the stock performance doesn't look as good as it does above the surface as the seven stocks. can they hang in is that techtrade okay it seems to be recovering okay in a three-month stretch >> it's had a real rough three months and if you look at the equal weighted s&p, what happens since july 31st and the equal weighted s&p in correction territory and the magnificent seven equal weighted in market

territory and some of them have not given a ton back, but they've had a rough time do i think that they will go up from here. probably not yet i think that there's still a lot to prove into 2024, and i'm going to go back to the labor market conversation a little bit. we're trayiying to prove what companies see as proof that they can make the number of 12% if inflation is coming down, the top line will come down. in order to meet the bottom line number they'll need to cutcost more and for a lot of companies the only place still left to cut costs is in the labor market so i think that we'll see cooling there, and i think we'll be okay with the fed to about 4.5% the issue is that they can't catch it once it starts, once those cuts start, they can't stop it and usually when you see it go up quickly, it flies up pretty fast and you can't catch it until it comes down and you'll have wait that out

so let me see, coach blank, you have deep beliefs in your perspective on where we're going. br's the market missing. it's not we have i horrible stock market why hasn't the market traded down to where you think it should in your mind? >> i think this harkens to something you and liz were talking about earlier. i actually do not believe that the market, the equity market, at least, is anticipatory anymore. i believe that it is reakary i think that has happened as a result of expanding breath in terms of how many of us participated in it, and i think we can look at the last two years as evidence of this. one of the other things that liz said that has been one of my key points is that common sense has been too high. this is something this i've been saying since the beginning of the year the fourth quarter estimates,s liz said indeed have come in

in fact, the consensus has been from more than 8% a month ago to 5% now, and you just can't have equity performance in the wake of significant downward reition visions like this. i have long articulated that 2024 estimates are way too high and we'll need to see significant down worried revisions there. consensus, greg, has been kind of wrong this whole time i means are consensus came into 2023 saying, well you don't want to be in mega-cap tech well, here we go, right? those are stocks that have performed and they'll run out any minute and they haven't. consensus suggested that we'll number a recession by now. at least -- people already said we'd be in one consensus was wrong on that, too. many the consensus is just wrong. >> i have long advocated for that as well, scott.

it has underpinned my opinion through 2022 and all of 2023 thus far and likely to underpin all of my opinions through 2024, but because you and i say that it's wrong doesn't mean that we aren't actually even in everything we say hiring for consensus. how long have you stated a market multiple based on consensus estimate how many times have you and i debated something and i said it's 19 times and i've used consensus numbers. it's really hard to desegregate all of consensus from how we engaged with each other and how we engaged in the market and that's one of the problems pi think this is one of the reasons why the market has been on the back foot instead of the front foot, and i think you'll continue to see that we've had some of that occur as we learned from the 18 times multiple in the beginning of the year with consensus numbers to

now a 17 times and the consensus numbers was way too high and we'll continue to see the activity in the action that we've seen over the last few months and those actions are being cut. >> liz, i'll give you the last word the market is not really -- it's not really 17 1/2 times. that's what it looks like on the surface. you take out the mega-caps some of these stocks are -- what are we, 12 or 13 times i think we have to be careful in the way we broad brush the whole market because of the performance of the mega-caps makes you think that the whole market is too rich and way overpriced where someone can easily make the argument that the whole market is actually cheap other than these stocks. >> i mean, trough multiples in times of real stress are down in the 11s and 12s so maybe not the whole market cheap if you look at small-cap indeckes and see, for example, they're in bear market territory. they haven't made a headway and

can't get out of their own way for good reason and they're financed and as rising rates continue to rise and they'll be under pressure and i do believe the market is a forward-looking mechanism. if you have small caps in bear market territory and not finding a way out of it, they're sniffing out the fact that demand is slowing and the employment picture is going to crack at some point because they employ the majority of america so you have to look at even sector behavior, too regardless of how well priced, i mean, financials are pretty well priced on the price to book basis and the p-e basis and they can't trade very well either and i don't know that valuations are not what's going to drive this in the near-term i think over the long term valuations will look more explainable, but right now that's not necessarily what the decision factor should be. >> some people they just look and the real market, 493 and 15 times and not the almost 18

times. i knew i was going to have a heavy lift against you guys. i don't know greg, i appreciate it very much. liz, thank you we'll talk to you again soon. >> great to be here. >> good to talk to you guys. we'll have full coverage tomorrow of the fed decision right here on closing bell including the exclusive interview that we always have on fed day with jeffrey gundlach of doubleline you don't want to miss his first reaction of the fed. let's get to the question of the day. where will the s&p 500 end 2023? under 4200, between 4200 and 4400 ore above 4400. head there to vote and we'll share the results later in the hour we're just getting started and sam bankman-fried on the stand for another cross-examination and we'll get another live update after the break and nvidia's key levels and the top technician giant is flagging now

says it better hold and it might not and if it doesn't, where it could about. he'll tell us next, we are live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ it's on us to help care for our clients' well-being; to help them adapt. it's inspiring to work at a place where our patients succeed. and we as therapists do, too. with great benefits from principal, we feel appreciated for the work we do. (♪♪)

with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, you're concerned that it's going to cost you money. to this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device... when i go back everything is covered. there's so much you're missing by not having hearing aids. we'll find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget at one of our over fifteen hundred locations. call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

is it possible my network could take my business to the next level? it is with comcast business. powering all your devices with gig-speed wifi. and you get fast downloads and uploads. pick it up! pick it up! oh we got this! because it's powered by the next generation 10g network. more speed for your business? it's not just possible. it's happening. get started for $59.99 a month for 12 months. plus, ask how to get an $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. comcast business, powering possibilities. welcome back 35 minutes to go in the trading day. let's get a check to top stocks to watch as we head into the close, kristina partsinevelos >> yes, indeed vf corp having the best year since 1987 the ugg maker is also slashing its dividend by 70% from last quarter as part of its turnaround, forts. the company saw direct to

consumer sales decline and said it expects more difficulty in the u.s. wholesale environment it hasn't been able to solve problems with them which i'm not saying right now, saying it does not expect the brand to improve in the next fiscal yore and that's why shares are off 15% and down 47% year to date. let's move on to caterpillar as wall street digests the heavy equipmentmaker's guidance. it is expecting the maker just slightly above the same quarter next year and caterpillar expectsec whatness in china to continue and those shares are down almost 7% and still year to date, not too bad. down about 6%. scott? >> we'll talk to you soon. kristina, we'll see you in just a bit. we are following new developments out of sam bankman-fry's trial. kate roony is here with the very latest kate >> hi, scott the defense has rested its case and sam bankman-fried is off the stand after an intense couple of days of questioning.

the jury went home for the day while the judge and attorney discuss jury instructions and potential objections and procedural things going on in there. bankm bankman-fried was on the stand and we did hear a less hostile tone he was asked about the $8 billion his hedge fund borrowed from the exchange. he said, quote, deeply regretted not taking a deeper look into it and doesn't remember offering the money and his cozy relationship with the bahamas prime minister and offered to pay $11 billion in sovereign debt from the bahamas. bankman-fried was presented with multiple statements he made to the media. he claimed he did not remember those. he said he gave about 50 interviews at the time of the collapse, he said he wasn't being evasive he doesn't recall every statement he made and as for the $65 billion line of credit his hedge fund had, bankman-fried said that was the maximum and it

only drew on about $2 billion and we'll have more info on that tomorrow, scott. >> interesting couple of days to say the least. kate rooney outside the courthouse for us. up next, nvidia shares and tom krinsky on where he thinks that stock could go he joins us after the bell "closing bell" right back. difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's yours free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free, and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many

people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money, and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care, and more. you can keep the doctors you have now, ones you know and trust, with no referrals needed. plus, you can get medical care anywhere in the country, even when you're traveling! with humana, you get a competitive monthly premium, and personalized service, from a healthcare partner working to make healthcare simpler and easier for you. you can choose from a wide range of standardized plans. each one is designed to work seamlessly with medicare and help save you money! so how do you find the plan that's right for you? one that fits your needs and your budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and

when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free, and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs. so, call now and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer.

>> shares of nvidia falling more than 2% today. it's recovereded a little bit. it's only down 1% now. that would be the second straight monthly decline that it's headed for. my next guest says there may be another 10% down side in store for that strong. let's bring in btig's jonathan krinsky. you're watching the 400 level as most people are and it got awfully close and here we bounced a little bit and where do you see it headed from here >> hi, scott when you talk about resistance,

it's never a fine line i think the 400 to 410 level is pretty significant if you think about the last few months since they had the gap earnings in may and it's the 410 level in mid-june and it tested in late august and mid-september and again, here we are in mid-october. so typically double bottoms can happen and once we start testing in a level three or four times, it ultimately does come and the issue with nvidia is there's this big gap with price and volume and because of the gap it had the runaway move this summer, there wasn't a lot of volume that transacted between what's called 300 and the 370 level. so we think 400 is important and once it breaks 370 there's a shot at 350 and then it's your 10% downside and ultimately, we can't rule out the earnings camp for may which will get you back

down to around 3.06. >> it's kind of dice toe make a call like this i know you look at the charts more than anything else, but nonetheless, ahead of an earnings report that's coming in reasonably short order it's dicey, to say the least. >> scott, if you recall the last time we were on set with you was the day before nvidia reported in august and we felt that at that point it was universally loved and it was a sell the news reaction and so here we are down about 20% from the high that it made in mid-august, and i think, you know, ooh not so much about the earnings report. it's about the trend of the momentum and the weekly momentum for nvidia and the semis has been on the sell signal on a weekly basis for quite a while now. so that's not going to change in the immediate term and traying to favor the down side and it could be a situation, and i

think they report november 21st or something that's still three weeks away. it could be down before that point and it might be more favorable. i think here and now still favors some caution. >> what about mega-caps in general. i guess now, presumably, you might think those are going to br break down as well and it's not just nvidia. throughout the summer, the mega-caps significantly diverged to the upside, but you never really got any sustained confirmation by small and midcaps or the average stock, to be honest. the average stock peaked february 2nd and never reclaimed that level so we continue to see evidence that more and more of these big-cap names are playing catch down to the average stock and even within the magnificent seven, tesla is down 10% from the october 2022 lows. we've seen other names kind of falter

so i think they're continuing to see this thinning of the leadership stocks and ultimately as bear marks markets unfold, that's when you get the last man standing which is the crux coming after the king and you best not miss and that's nvidia. it's the best-performing stock in the s&p 500 year to date and from the october lows and we think it's probably the last man standing and that bring the nasdaq down, as well. >> what about the s&p? we're at 4200 and now we not what is historically the strongest month of theier followed by the second strongest month. how vulnerable then does that leave the s&p and are you writing off the chances of a late-year rally? >> so we actually put our note this week and we do think the odds are for november to finish higher are decent and we haven't been down four straight since 2011 we haven't been down four straight ending in november since 1986 and august through

november have not been down consecutively and the issue is we don't think it's a straight line weigh don't think we start off november 1st and we go to the upside and there's unfinished lower and i think there are still too many people banking on this year-end rally and i think you'll shake out more of that optimism and that could be a nice setup as we get into november >> so let me have you answer the question and we asked the viewers to answer the question, as well. we end the year below 4200 or below 42 or 4400 what do you think is most likely to happen? >> i think you probably are ending below 4200. november could be positive and if you're trailing to 3950, 4000, that would be tough. thank you, jonathan krinsky from btig we're tracking the movers and

kristina partsinevelos is tracking that. >> lattice is in the complete opposite direction we discuss what's causing that volatility right after this short break.

here in hawaii there is always time. there's time to spend with family, time to enjoy with friends. there's always time to listen or lend a helping hand.

here we have all the time in the world, but no time to waste.

we have about 20 to go

before the closing bell. kristina partsinevelos is back with stocks to watch >> i am back let's talk about the q3 earnings beat and shares of lattice semiconductor falling after it fell short of expectation. from industrial and indushares 21% yesterday and continued to fall almost 4% today after management also issued a weak q4 guidance for increasing risk due to higher separates. amd reports tonight and the sentiment has turned more negative shares are down 14% just over the last three months or so. investors agreed the pc recovery is under way, but are concerned about data centered demand and the launch of amd's new ai chip and what kind revenue will bring this year. with lattice off about 20% and the speed is up over 20% on slimmer than expected losses we are seeing so much more volatility especially after the

earnings report. mizuho saying it feels extra elevated creating risk for all types of investors it is up 22% >> kristina partsinevelos and the last chance to weigh in on the question of the day. where will the s&p 500 end this year under 4200, 4200 to 4400 threltafr e eae sus tethbrk.

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had

more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. people are excited about what ai will do for them.

we're excited about what ai will do for business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by training ai with your data. when you watsonx your business, you can build ai to help coders code faster, customer service respond quicker, and employees handle repetitive tasks in less time. let's create ai that transforms business with watsonx. ibm. let's create. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back fed decision tomorrow. immediately following that and the news conference from the chair jay powell, jeffrey gundlach from doubleline, gives his first reaction to what happened in that room and how the fed chair himself described their move and what they see moving forward let's get the results from our question of the day. all of that might factor into how you see this where will the s&p 500 finish the year most of you saying between 4200 and 4400 it's pretty close, though. it did get a fair amount of votes above 4400 up income, your earnings rundown in amd and o.t we h weave stacy rascon, that and much more when we take you inside "the market zone.

together, we built something truly beautiful. it takes years of dedication to get to this milestone. the new york stock exchange is a symbol of what america is all about the potential of an american dream. it is day one. a lot of work has happened to lead to this historic moment. the only way you can move a society forward is a true expression of freedom. (♪♪)

what do you see on the horizon? is a true expression uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ we are now in the closing bell market zone mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. stacy rascon and what he's watching ahead of amd earnings out in o.t. and contessa brewer on expectation for caesar's when it reports mike, i begin with you so as conversation at the top of the show with two bears. you know, who make a credible case and it's hard to push back against that and then i see these reports that stanley drunkenmiller, the famed money manager has bought, quote, massive bullish positions in two-year notes because he's

worried about the economy. i started to get really nervous. he said that at a conference in the last handful of days and he'll be on squawk box at 7:00 a.m. please don't miss that interview. what do you make of that >> first of all, it reflects the saturated psychology that we've been in which means the cycle is in peril and it's doubly confusing because we've been watching what has been a relentless surge in long-term yields in part because the current economic numbers have been so good and the massively bullish two-year notes and the treasuries and that's because he thinks that we're going to go from a bear steepener because long yields are going up, which is the traditional kind that precedes a recession people buy short-term treasurys and what's fascinating is, almost guaranteed tomorrow, fed chair powell is going to say the economy still seems solid and yeah, there are lag effects and

we don't see them exert a huge gravitational pull and this is the argument that the market has been waging for a few weak, and if you look at cyclical stocks, and if you look at the kinds of the parts of the market would suffer in that scenario, they have been suffering. so, you know, i guess you can still be right and essentially we're sort of just spiralling on the other hand these feedback loops can be interrupted in the short term and we can have some kind of seasonal rally that takes the pressure on and you get a little glimmer of hope that the bond mark has done enough for now and we'll see, but it is a fascinating moment for all those reasons. >> yeah. no doubt about that. so we'll get amd after the bell. again, we have the fed decision tomorrow gosh, nothing will happen, we dernt think, but the chair's take on what might happen from here is going to be everything and then followed by the jobs report, apple and all of these other things as apple is

suggesting now that nvidia is about to crack on balance, the response to earnings has not been positive, right in you've been punisheded by any hint that demand is softening and you'll see decelerating growth and that shows you that we're twitchy about the fact that we have vulnerabilities here i think the market wants powell to essentially endorse the -- we're done they seem to want to be done and they don't want to have their hand forced to do more if he acknowledges that conditions are tight, i think that might be the smoke signal we'll see because there are those as we just suggested, the near-term, short-tomorrow rates will start to go down if you get a buy in there and the long end steepens and that precedes the scenario. >> the fear is that the economic conditions will be in place for that fed to be cutting, but the fed is now so entrenched on a

higher for longer point of view, because they haven't seen inflation head to their target and you'll have that difficulty where they're fighting that moment of going toward an easy path >> all right. >> intel reported last week and intel had a very good pc-driven quarter however the business was still lagging quite a bit. amd has something like a 50% half up or half data center growth that's built into the numbers this year and that's been one of the key questions on the call and do they still hold that outlook into the end of the year or do they back it off? i think top of going into next year, it's an ai story and everybody wants to know any tidbits they can givous the demand environment for the m:i:iii 00 which is the gpu that they'll be launching soon and

then next year and whatever they can give us on that. there's one more thing that i'm working for is the embedded business they bought a company a year ago called xilinx and this is a market, and intel has a piece of this they call it the psg group they're down 30% next year lattice, i don't cover lattice and they kind of blew up today the street expectations for embedded into next year look -- it's not down very much and this is one thing that i'll be watching, as well. it's the most profitable in higher margin business and something else to keep your eyes on as we go into tonight >> i want to steer your attention as we do toward nvidia because there's a lot of talk about that stock at a really key level and 400 is the line in the sand and we had a technician and i don't know if you heard our conversation or not, nothinging that there's 2% doin side minimum from here and that it's

looking really dicey >> how would you address now you view the stock here. do you think it's gotten too expensive how does this analist lick lieu look at that woop we had multiple valuations for nvidia before. if the forward numbers are close to being right the numbers are not expensive and the sell side numbers are in the ballpark of 15 bucks next year and they will probably beat numbers and even with the china stuff and everything going on, they will probably beat numbers. they're supply limited right now and not demand limited and they're selling everything they can make i do think the china news has been waiting on and that's part of what was on today there's an article out there that said the order cancellations in china i don't know why that's new news and they can't ship anything to china. we know that already they have enough demand in the near-term to make up the difference and that is what is weighing on it today

i think until the overhangs clear and we can get a better view of what the limited end demand is and we won't know that until the supply constraint which will be in a while, and i personally do still think that the long-term opportunity is enormous and that we are still early. that stock was always volatile and it's always been a good weakness in volatility when everyone is pin thing it >> the valuation is deeper now than it was. >> it is you pointed it out on numerous occasions. we have to let you go. stacy rasgon joining us here and not the only earnings report caesar's is, too contessa brewer, what are you seeing >> we're seeing caesar's shares down 14% investors may be bracing for bad news after disappointing earnings last week and they were talking about the costs associated with labor unions,

utilities and insurance hitting their bottom line and we saw caesar's take a dip then and so did other casino companies and they were uppa, gen against nexr and the astounding loss of las vegas, plus the cyber, and football season would mean a ramp up on spending on promotions so street is expecting a billion bucks in adjusted ebitda which is the guiding earnings metric in gaining and we'll see whether caesars can come in with that. >> yes, we will and we will see you in "overtime." you heard the sound effect a 2-minute warning and interest the close before we get to tomorrow, the gundlach report and who knows what else? >> at least the market was age to respond in a tentative way in the fact that it was super oversold and we have a little bit of a lift and all of the things that we know is coming

together from the very first week end to october and that said, a lot of the laggards get some relief and they were stretched way to the down side you have russell leading and the financials up again and all of the rest so i think the market likes to pull itself to voting before the fed meeting. a lot to prove, i think. a lot of the technical indicators look at how do corrections tend to evolve and end? we're in the vicinity in time of when these things start to fire and say we might have a low, but usually or often, at least the market has to go to the final low before you get there so usually you're pretty close in tim usually your market doesn't spend a lot of time at the low of the correction and it's remember we get through some of the catalysts. >> the other day we were saying 4100 is -- we're going to get there and here we are on the doorstep. >> the intraday low was 4103 and

it was also a low in late may so it was trying to make that stick. >> we have a big day tomorrow. i'll so you tomorrow on to o.t. with don ford you have your card on friday welcome to closing bell overtime, i'm jon fortt and morgan brennan is off today. along with caesars, first solar, match and i.t. spending bellwether freshworks and we'll bring you the numbers and a first on cnbc interview with the ceo of freshworks ahead on his call with analyst and plus we'll talk to the council of economic advisers chair jared bernstein about the american eco