outlook. before that, though, we also do get adp jobs and the jolts report it's going to inform his commentary about how tight or loose the labor market is. >> that's going to be big news, of course, as always mike santoli, you'll be covering it that's going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. all right, everybody, live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. and here's what's on tap tonight. a semislump. shares of amd dropping after its latest earnings report drops, as revenue guidance falls short of expectations we're dial into the conference call and bringing you all the details from the quarter. plus, a catastrophe. posting their worst day in 18 months what's going on? the hidden warning signs that sent the company's stock plunging we'll explore that. and later, an ev meltdown?

that's the stark warning from one top analyst. so, what happens to the sector if demand dries up and will it all leave tesla in the dust goods afternoon, everybody, i'm tyler mathieson coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight, tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. meantime, stocks eking out a gain today, but major indexes all wrapping up october with a third straight month of losses the dow down more than a percent this month, the s&p shedding more than 2%, both indexes posting their longest losing streaks since early 2020 and we'll get much more on that later in the program but first, amd earnings. shares of the chip maker dropping despite beats on the top and bottom lines q-4 revenue guy dance coming in below expectations the conference call just started, and our kristina partsinevelos has the details. >> tyler, much like we've seen with other chip makers, chip

stocks really seem to be reacting to future guidance, and amd's q-4 guidance, disappointing. amd beat earnings revenue estimates for q-3 but guided for q-4 less than estimated. management warned of lower sales in gaming and softening demand in imbedded markets, which includes its smiling business. lattica warned of that, as well. if you broke down the categories for q-3, amd missed slightly in data center as well as imbedded, but they had a record quarter for server processor sales they also beat in client, as the pc recovery is under way and gaming came in in line my contact just now told me that the ceo will provide detail, and we should expect increased

expected revenue for that particular chip on the earnings call that is now under way, so, that could help reverse some of the 4% loss that's going on. >> hey, kristina, it's tim quickly, any sense of mi-300x and this chip that's supposed to be, you know, their ante into the ring to compete with nvidi any sense on this, can this turn the stock around >> yeah, that's just literally what i was talking about, the mi-300 is what they're going to start with on the call and going to talk about revenues for that particular chip, and we should expect that revenue number to be a little higher, which is a positive sign for the stock. does that mean it's going to be stealing share away from nvidia, it's too early to say, but the fact they're going to come out on this call and be bullish ahead of the december launch is a good sign, because originally, i thought they would hold off, and not say so much about this a.i. chip, because they want to go out with a bang in december, but if lisa is already talking about it on the call, that could mean some strength for this particular a.i. chip

>> all right -- >> which has begun production already, by the way. >> okay. fantastic. kristina, thank you. let's trade this one beginning with you, guy. >> first of all, tyler, great to have you >> happy halloween >> and it's halloween. >> let's do this >> it's spooky out there new york on halloween. >> what -- >> spooky as you know what >> as what >> your tie. >> glad you mentioned it this is -- can we -- >> scary ducks >> should have gone with the orange tie like i did. >> nondescript into the show. amd, how do you trade it it's fascinating this past may, the stock closed at 90 bucks, they reported earnings it cratered. mentioned a.i., month later, the stock was trading $130 we have round tripped that move pretty much back to 90 bucks i don't think now is the time to be selling amd, though the guide is disappointing, yes, and margins came in a little bit slightly less than expected. 22%, i think, a year ago, it was

22.7%. but this is one of the stocks that, when it looks the worst, it's when you have to start layering in, opposed to when it looked great in the middle of the summer you got to sort of zig when people zag in the stock. and now is the time to buy it, not sell it. >> i agree i agree. i have a small position in amd i think, i wouldn't be selling on this. i really want to hear the call i'll hear that later, but -- because i think we'll get a lot -- some nuance, right? if i were ceo of a company in this space right now, i would be a little bit, i don't know, conservative in my guidance. why not? turns out great, good. so, i really want to hear what she has to say i think -- listen, wasn't shocking i don't think this is a giant quarter that tells the story of amd going forward. >> here's the deal we were talking about what they're going to say about this new graphics chip. at the end of the day, they gave their guidance it's down 4.5% from consensus. that's the way it used to work on wall street a little bit. and if you think about what's

imbedded in q-4, they can say whatever they want about this chip, if they're going to be competing with nvidia, they are going to compete on price. that's how they're going to gain share back they're so delayed so, to me, i don't think this is going to be a huge ramp. it's going to be a chip -- all the reviews, it's not going to be what the h-100 is by nvidia at the end of the day, they might be being, like, a bit conservative, but at the end of the day, like, they're behind the 8 ball here, you know what i'm saying i don't know >> and -- >> yeah, they're going to compete here or no >> part of the disappointment on the 4q is not just on demand, it's on margin i also think that there is some hangover, even from some of the programmable chips and some of the things that even intel, i know you should not be comparing amd to untell, but in terms of the core segments, what is going on with cap x and cap x spend? and we heard from meta, we heard

from other people. that's going to be the tone. i agree with those that said amd is not the one you want to count out. in fact, i think weakness is to be bought. i don't know that weakness needs to be bought tomorrow. and i think there's a lot going on right now in terms of the cyclicality, and we're going to hear a lot more about this great chip >> kristina with a little bit more color and detail off the conference call, kristina? >> yeah, i have the transcription of what she's going to say it was in my email, so i could go with it she's going to say we expect data center gpu revenue to be $400 million in the fourth quarter and exceed $2 billion in 2024 as revenue ramps. the line that stands out, is quote, this growth would make the mi-300 the fastest product to ramp to 1 billion sales in amd history. that's all they provided, but -- pretty strong statement. >> that's a strong endorsement of that product, that's fast growth >> well, and again, part of what we already heard from the company is, you should be expecting some material amount

of sales in the fourth quarter, and that's why the early so far has been some disappoint that it wasn't more impressive let's -- we're going to wait and hear >> i'd add that the article in "the wall street journal" with nvidia having 5 billion orders from wchina for these chips, if they are not able to go through, might we have an inventory situation? >> stuck with it >> in general, they're going to have to sell them in the west. >> if you think their supply/demand dynamic -- >> china has been such a huge part of the demand the double and triple ordering they're talking about 5 billion. so, these new guidelines are putting tighter curbs on it. we know the guys did some workarounds, this is nvidia. listen, this is just setting up for this sort of thing there's an article today in the cio journal how companies are debating, what is the commercialization of some of these products right now they've all just moved in so quickly and just been buying whatever it is, whether it's

compute, whether it's cloud source, chips, that sort of thing. so, who knows what's going to happen here? and we know that today, or tomorrow, i guess, microsoft is going to start selling this co-pilot 365 and we might start get some indications here, but at the end of the day, if we know the companies are starting to cut costs as it, you know, head count, they're going to probably start rationalizing spend a little bit, too. >> the question is, are you buys amd for a.i. and this chip or are you buying them for the dynamics that have made them eat everybody else's lunch where they are computing and so, are you bummed out they talked about weakness in gaming and 4q these are the things you are sorting through, because i think there are some headlines that aren't great for the cyclicality of some parts of their business that have been very important. i don't think that's why people are owning it here, but again, that's why you have some time before you have to make this decision tomorrow. >> let's bring in chris rolland, a senior equity analyst. chris, what do you think of the

results you've seen, and i note that you say there are headwinds facing this stock and that is one of the reasons why you've cut your price target on it. >> yeah, i -- this was basically as in line as i could have imagined there are some headwinds, as i sug suggested, but primarily, in markets that are affecting everyone, like industrial and coms really, their server is at the first point now very competitive with intel that is ramping, taking share, and as you guys have been talking about, the mi-300 gpu is very exciting for the data center >> and so, why the price cut from 145 to 130? explain that to me take that apart. >> yeah, some of this is slower server than our expectations for last year that were really quite robust

the second part is the business they bought. that business, according to intel, who has a similar business, is losing about a third coming into next year. >> karen, >> thanks for being on today how do you get to 130? what's the multiple, how do you think about that valuation >> yeah, that's -- it's a great question we are now looking at eps, primarily, for next year we're looking at about $3.50 to four pucks, so, we're looking at 25 times overall and really this is going to be about growth it's going to be about traction around mi-300. and can that multiple go up from there if we do indeed see better growth dynamics around a.i.? >> chris, since they reported, i'll shift gears.

saw 516 print, obviously traded sub 400 today. what do you make now, the 20% move to the downside how does that set up into earnings if margins, they start to decelerate, this move might look like nothing in comparison >> yeah, it's amazing, the discounting mechanism that the market is. for nvidia, very specifically, we are still expecting beats for at least the next quarter. i would see a billion dollars of beats coming for this next quarter. we're already, the buy side is talking about march or april for nvidia, what that will look like and then, is there, indeed, a correction sometime mid-next year, and if so, how deep? and that's really where the conversation is right now on the buy side >> dan any thoughts here? >> yeah, chris, what do you make of the story out of "the wall street journal" about nvidia and

$5 billion worth of orders, you know, in china and what would that mean for, like, just basically just inventories in general and pricing? >> so, nvidia was most likely shipping as much as they could to china before that rumored ban the actual institution of the ban was quicker than expected, so, indeed, they may have been caught with some sales that did not get out the door in time but some of that can be moved on to newer players out there, and some of them might -- some of those products are china-specific, and may have to be eaten or heavily discounted. >> chris, thank you so much for your time tonight. appreciate you being with us >> thank you >> chris rolland of susquehanna. let's take a look, shall we, at the amd chart, which has just turned back -- it's bounced off

the lows can we show that chart in the afterhours of course we can, if i ask for it, we're going to see it. >> what else can we ask for? >> there it is it's snapped back there, roughly to where it was, i guess, at the end of the 4:00 p.m. session, so roughly right there after a dip. let's tie it off >> well, yeah, right now, the chart, the jury is to the -- the challenge to the move down, i mean, in other words the downtrend that's coming from the july highs when you had semis basically hit their all-time highs, certainly relative highs, the entire sector is down. but that downtrend, look, you're making lower lowers in the afterhours in terms of where we are, we're below the 200, there are key levels that have been breached on the chart, really, you're kind of looking at levels just below this 98, where there is some support but again, as guy pointed out, if people start questioning some of these growth numbers, things could move quickly >> yeah. all right, let's move from chips to another kind of business, and that would be real estate

shares of zillow plunging after missouri jury found the national association of realtors guilty of conspiring to inflate broker commissions. the verdict could result in $5.3 billion in damages, and diana olick has the details. >> the national association of realtors, along with residential real estate brokerages were slapped with $1.8 billion in damages after a federal jury found them guilty in a major lawsuit that could change the way homes are bought and sold. now, the damages could triple under anti-trust rules the suit claimed a conspiracy to keep broker commissions high by requiring a listing agent compensate a buyer's agent for listing on a property on the mls you which is the biggest home listing service. that means the seller has to pay its agent and the buyer's agent. the realtors put out a statement

saying that nar rules prioritize customers, this matter is not close to being final, as we will appeal the jury's verdict. they are also asking the court to reduce those damages. now, analysts wrote they worry this could be a drag on housing if buyers have to start paying commissions to their agents, because first-time buyers are already scraping by, as you know, in this extreme ly low housing market >> karen, you do own this. >> i do. sadly. what i like about it is the asset-light model, and so, it's really a platform for brokers. if brokers are being squeezed, they are going to be able to spend less money on the zillow platform that's why it's down the knee-jerk reaction is often overdone, we'll see how this plays out. i think they actually report tomorrow, i don't know if it's tomorrow morning or tomorrow night. so, i'd love to hear their commentary on this, but i think this is far from over.

we need to get a lot more residential sales, the rental business is hanging in nicely, but obviously today -- >> this question of who pays whom in real estate transactions has been lingering with us for decades. >> yes >> and who -- the seller actually pays the commission, but then the seller's agent pays the buyer's agent, who is really a seller's agent, effectively, in the same way. >> it does feel like every time you do a transaction in real estate, they're working for the other side regardless of which side you're on, it always feels like -- >> unless you hire specifically a so-called buyer's agent, who is working solely for you and you're paying that individual by the hour guy? >> feels like -- do you want to step in and buy zillow here? tomorrow after the bell. brian sullivan, he does that great show -- >> oh, yeah. >> "last call. >> i heard him >> "last call. that's right >> "last call. >> long haul, "last call." >> he had a great tweet out talking about the national association of realtors have

been beating back over the years, this one, they haven't been able to do. he wonders aaloud, what does thi mean for commissioners in the space? it's far-reaching ramifications, i think. >> this is a big one it is. and as you said, or, as he said, they have been able to deflect these arrows over the years very efficiently, but -- who knows. all right, coming up, we're going to dig through more earnings results shares of caesars on move afterhours. and caterpillar grinding lower after their results. more on the weak guidance that sent shares negative for the year that's next. don't go anywhere. "fast money" back in two

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all right, welcome back to "fast money. cat getting scratched after -- >> oh, come on >> after results this morning. the company posting -- >> i just read them, folks >> posting a beat on the top and bottom line, but issuing a weak sales outlook for the quarter. caterpillar, the worst-performing dow stock today, down nearly 7%. imagine what the dow would have done if you take out the cat

putting the name into negative territory for the year that could be caterpillar. who would like to pick up here tim? >> before we go there, we have to ask the question -- >> ted nugent. i'm in tim's head. >> who sang "catch scratch fever? of course it was the motor city madman, ted nugent himself the reversal of the stock from at least premarket when they released these numbers and they beat, they significantly beat, and the things that are really impressive here are the free cash flow dynamics you have 6.8 billion in free cash flow versus 2.8 a year ago. dynamics that look strong going forward. they talked about it the fourth quarter guide, you got into some of the margins, it's not -- it's not a demanding valuation, it's certainly not demanding in hindsight. >> are they going to have the kind of cycle they've had year over year? the comps look really tough for this company, but there was nothing in these numbers, the guide wasn't awful i just -- it felt like a crowded trade where people needed a catalyst >> are we starting to see a

little bit of a tremble of, guidance is tripping and come spring, it's going to be a much rougher world? >> all the things tim mentioned, the metrics are spot on. backlog down $2.6 billion year over year and inventory build. dealer inverve toirs are completely unfavorable that's why people sold first and asked questions later. the question you have to ask yourself, where do you get back to boo ththe stock? that's where it wants to head, the fact inventory build happened as quickly as it did. >> dan >> you're talking about inventor inventories, the guidance, the lack of visibility, this stock, three months ago, was making a new all-time high. it gapped up 9%, okay, in one day, it just kept on moving after it reported its q-2 and gave their q-3 guidance. it's showing the volatility that we're seeing in the corporate

visibility of these guys business we're seeing this across a lot of industries, it's not good that should be telling people something. and we've gone to this period where people are selling first, asking questions later, and one of you guys said, it's not a demanding valuation i just think that says a lot about the market that we're in right now. >> highly cyclical and think about the environment we came out of i just think these are going to be tough comps and the last question i'd ask to you, tyler, do you think nugent's work with damn yankees exceeded his work as a artist >> yes >> you have to be more definitive mel would have handled that, of course it was. you have to pretend. where you are going now, after that damn yankees -- >> one of the first super groups >> it's interesting you say that not really one of the original super groups i mean, you think about paul

rogers, the firm, with jimmy page and those types of things >> oh. >> tyler >> asia, possibly, one of them, too? >> back to you, tyler. another earnings alert yum china. shares dropping hard in the afterhours the company posting a revenues miss, saying it saw softening consumer demand in china any thoughts on yum china? >> well, if you look at what's been going on in terms of quick serve and fast food trends overall here, it east been a story of where margins are starting to run into some head winds. it's been a very important time. in terms of yum china, this is, you know, again, kentucky fried chicken, pizza hut, all those lovely things you can do in china. this was supposed to be the high growth engine, and it has been an underperformer relative to yum that trades over here, so i think it's a test of the times right now. i think a lot of these quick serve names are running into margin pressures, as well. you know, cue the same theme i don't think these numbers wer,

caesars on the move. that casino trade is next. plus, all eyes on jay powell, as the fed readies its latest rate decision we'll tell you what to expect and how markets may react, ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are back right after this

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are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. okay, welcome back to "fast money. earnings alert on caesars. the stock higher after reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines. the conference call got under way at the top of the hour contessa brewer has the details. >> i don't know what is going on with shares, they are all over the place. this was a report that was

really straightforward it's good. tough comps, forget about it in las vegas, which has been on fire, caesars occupancy up 3% over last year to 97% in the last quarter room rates higher. it saw record cash, hotel revenue, gaming revenue, and food and beverage revenue. regionals, best quarter on record ceo tom reed says he is seeing stability in customer spending there. caesars investment in new proper tips and expanding properties. clearly it's having a positive impact in the regional portfolio. and in spite of the tough comps and the challenging cost environment, as we heard from boyd gaming last week, caesars regional casinos are fending off the competition in the macro head winds digital, a surprise profwit the street was expecting a loss of a million dollars and they are making strides in i-gaming, the casino games you play online they have set aside money for back pay on a new contract with

the culinary union, and when it's finalized, it will be, quote, the largest increase our employees have seen in the four decades since we've been interacting with the culinary union. he says, employees should be participating in the success of the company. leading up to f-1 in vegas in a couple weeks, the ceo says they expect to add about 5% to fourth quarter profits just from that event alone. he calls it extraordinary. says that he is seeing a big influx in international visitors, not only for f-1, but then ahead of the super bowl in february, so there's a lot to like here, guys. >> caesars would profit from that, just because of extra volume, it's not because they have a particular tie-in to the f-1 race >> they are sponsors for the race, they've got a lot of exposure, because the race is going to go through all of those caesars properties remember, caesars and mgm, the two biggest companies on the las vegas strip with a lot of properties, but tyler, on the call, he said, what they're getting is -- they call it

credit play, right these are guys that come in and they play on credit, meaning they are high rollers, and at that level, they're just being overwhelmed. so, they've got a lot of big spenders coming in and internationally. there's a lot of interest in f-1, so, if you have people flying in for the race internationally, which is helping international recover postpandemic, they are going to be spending more >> guy, you're a credit kind of guy at the casino. >> no, are you kidding me? remember the other day, you talked about the ferrari you were buying with cash? >> that's right. >> show up with a suitcase go to the craps table and you spend 12 hours but this quarter, to contessa's point, it's good it should be north of 41 bucks they reduced it by $600 million year to date and net income was $74 million, 53 last quarter their leverage rates are down. i think you can own the stock. >> tim >> well, if you look at the breakdown of the four main casino names, you have the domestic, caesars, mgm, and then you have those with the exposure

in macao and singapore, las vegas sands. wynn and you have the dynamic, i prefer the ones exposed to macao, because i think they are trading below mid cycle ebitda, and i think there's a lot of demand coming back slowly in macao. i think the market is leaning towards the domestic plays and even though caesars had a pull-back here, i think you look at the bottom of that range on this chart and it does favor the u.s. setup >> doing nicely afterhours there at $41.85. let's take a quick break coming up, the powell preview. what to expect out of tomorrow's fed decision and whether the central bank will give an all-clear signal over the fight against inflation. peter boockvar says don't hold your breath on that, that could be years away. he'll explain when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. a losing month for stocks. the nasdaq dropping almost 3% in october. s&p 500 down 2%, seeing its first three-month long losing streak since 2020. the dow off 1%

pfizer spending most of the day in negative territory after reporting a third quarter loss the drug maker recording charges tied to sluggish demand for its covid anti-viral treatment and vaccine. pfizer closing just above the flat line. paycom software plunging the human resources and payroll company missing third quarter estimates, giving a fourth quarter revenue guide well below expec expectations it would be the stock's worst drop on record that's a 29% decline. and some other afterhours movers first solar higher after reporting a top line beat. but revenues came in below street estimates tinder parent match group seeing earnings and revenue beat the street, but management expecting profits to fall because of a weakening economy. well, even if the fed signals to more rate hikes tomorrow, our next guest warns the all clear signal is years away peter is the chief investment

officer as bleakley financial group and a cnbc contributor let me ask you -- welcome, first of all, but let me understand correctly. you wouldn't be surprised if the fed is done for this cycle, you would be surprised if they say anything like we're done >> well, they're done with respect for the fed funds rate they are certainly not done with respect to their balance sheet, and that's the continuous form of tightening that will continue on so, jay powell may just sit back and do nothing tomorrow, it's probably going to be a really boring statement, it's going to be a very boring press conference >> i'm glad i'm going to washington for this then teeing it up beautifully for me. >> behind the scenes, though, qt continues on and i think that that is taking over from the rate hikes in terms of tightening financial conditions >> so, that's the -- that's the key part of the monetary policy that isn't going away. >> it's going to be more of a focus. the balance sheet has shrunk a trillion dollars the question is, how much more

do they want it to shrink? powell has said, well, we'll know it when we see it, which is their way of saying, we don't really know, but it's still going on and it's not just the fed doing qt, it's global qt ecb, bank of england, reserve bank of traustralia, and why the bank of japan is not going that far, they are still in its own way tightening monetary policy >> so, as we pivot away from those technical issues to the question of what's going on in the bond market, the ten-year hitting 5%, where do you -- and it's eased back off just a little bit, where do you see it finishing the year and where do you see it performing next year? >> i think for the next couple months, we probably have seen the top in the ten year, for now. i think we're going to get a little respite here, maybe the ten-year trades down to 4.5, 4.75, but the upward pressure reasserts itself next year and i think it still -- >> the pressure comes from where? >> it's going to come from not your conventional sources. it's not going to come from the economy accelerating, it's not going to come from revisiting a

9% inflation rate. it's going to come from the bank of japan getting out of negative interest rates, it's going to continue from continuous qt, it's going to come from still rising debts and deficits. >> supply. >> correct >> when you say that karen? >> yeah, so, i see some of your notes, if we get to 6%, then the fed would do qe. is qe the lack of qt or is qe qe >> so, the sequence will be stop qt, and then if they run into a bank of england situation, where you get this unruly rise in long rates, then the fed will feel the need to temper that. we hope we don't get to those situations where they lose control of the long end. but it's something that, you know, you have to use your imagination when you're in this global rise in interest rates of what actually could happen as this global monetary tightening continues on >> i'm reading your notes here that say the housing market is

upside down, peter, and you said that really there's no relief, certainly for new buyers out there. they're broken i am of the view that housing prices have a ways to go lower, and i realize people say there's a supply dynamic that's going to support them at 8%, you're buying a lot less house, is the reality. >> i think -- and we heard it from the builders in some of the earnings calls i think 8% has been the inflection point, where they're finally seeing, you know what? we've had a good year so far, and we're selling homes to people that can't find an existing home, but 8%, people are pushing their limits and i think some of the builders talked about that, i think t the -- the real catalyst to get a decline in home prices is also not for good reason. people start to lose their jobs and they need to downsize to an apartment, for example that could be a catalyst to bring on more supply, but we need more supply desperately, especially for that first-time home buyer that's in a really difficult situation. >> i want to squeeze in one more

quick question, and that is, your view of the economy i -- at the back of your note here, you talk, or, you report from a lot of different industries chemicals, manufacturing, transportation equipment, metals manufacturing, paper, and so on and so forth and it is almost unanimous, those executives, or people you're talking to, say, business is slowing >> it seems that the -- >> the future is not so bright >> manufacturing has been in a recession for more than a year now. the dallas manufacturing number, which came out yesterday, i think it's been in contraction for 14 straight months so, that's -- those sectors you talked about fall under that umbrella the spending is on travel and restaurants and so on, where middle to lower income spending is definitely muted. business investment, q-3 gdp was basically flat and you had government spending that was -- helped the gdp, as well >> all right, peter, thank you

dan, let's trade this, which is another way of saying, let's talk about peter as if he wasn't here, right? >> i talk to peter a bunch, and, you know, there's very few people that do this work that he does and also looks, and you asked him about earnings season, he reads and listens to a lot of conference calls and he picks out a lot of stuff that he puts in his book report that i think, you know, you piece it together and the mosaic is not particularly great right now i know karen is looking at me like, i listen to a lot, too and it depends, sometimes, what lens you're looking through. you know, listen, i think the consumer, like, feels like it's about to be an inflection point if we see that unemployment rate tick up, some of the dynamics could start to kick in a little bit, and again, i go back to what the stock market is telling me i look at all the different industries, i look at transports, i look at cyclicals, industrials, financifinancial, l trade horribly i'm not an economist, but i've been staring at the stock market for 27 years strait, and they're all telling me something else is going on outside my per view a

little bit >> quick closer? >> okay, i can -- all of that makes sense, we can see consumer slowing, if the fed says, we're done and maybe even at some point turns, that sort of a very different dynamic for the market >> well, i don't think it is i think, again, this is -- you and i had this conversation, i think, last week the last few times that i remember where the fed was on a rate hiking cycle and then they had to turn and i go back to 2000 -- >> go back to '95. >> i know, you go back to that one time >> it wasn't one time. >> no, but it really was that one time in the last 30 years. >> it wasn't >> it really was, when we had meaningfully rate hiking cycles. >> right >> when i go back to '18, okay, so, '18, we go back to '07 and we go back to 2000, and so, fine, you can have '95 >> all right, well -- >> '18 was a really short rate hiking cycle >> but we dropped 20% in a straight line. there were growth fears. as soon as there were growth fears. the fed had to pivot and i don't think they can do that right now with inflation.

>> well, they kind of got bludgeoned >> what's inflation been -- >> pesky and persistent. >> all right, well, we're going to take a little break apple earnings are on deck o are ochgss traders ready to take a bite of the big tech giant? we'll have that one next. and is the ev boom starting to run on empty? we'll hear why an industry -- the industry, i should say, may have a new problem on its hands, as inventory balloons. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. you can see the earnings coming this week. apple leading the action the tech titan will report after the bell on thursday and on this halloween, options traders are betting things could get even spookier >> spookier. i knew that was coming >> you had to figure mike khouw joins us now with the action on apple. hi, mike >> yeah, sure are. the biggest s&p constituent by weighed over 7%, and right now, we saw puts outpacing calls and the options market is implying a move of about 4% the busiest put contract were the 165 puts, those expire at the end of this week we saw buyers trading about

15,000 of those for $1.86 a contract and buyers are obviously betting that the news could be disappointing and the downtrend that the stock has been in could continue >> all right, any reaction there on apple >> well, i just -- you know, the chart certainly is not an exciting-looking chart for the bulls. and it's just one of these stories in terms of both demand, the china dynamics how is this getting away from me on the upside? i don't think it is. they're going to be the usual cash machine, but i think this is not going to get away from them on the upside >> it's still up 12% for a year, but it is -- >> but their friends are doing so much better >> friends are doing better. >> way better. all of them. all righty, coming up -- thank you, mike khouw, by the way. dropping demand. a new report saying there's a potential big drop in demand coming for evs what it all means for the sector, next, when "fast money" returns in two minutes this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack

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welcome back to "fast money. the electric vehicle market might be running out of battery, according to deutsche bank analysts saying that concerns about an ev meltdown, not just a slowdown, a meltdown are starting to take hold, with automakers like ford and gm scaling back ambitious targets,

cutting back capital spending in that sector. this as ev inventories balloon, up 500% in september from the year before, with the amount of time vehicles sitting on auto lots also trending upward, and also being longer than the time spent on the lot for conv conventional cars. more on the impact of the stalling ev market and whether it really is stalling, let's bring in kevin roberts, director of industry insights and analytics at car gurus is the market for electric vehicles stalling, kevin, when sales are up as much as you say they are >> yes and no. so, we're in a situation now where the data can basically tell you whatever story you're looking to tell. so, ev sales are definitely up, however, not all evs are selling at the same rate, so, we're seeing rising inventory levels out there, which is suggesting the market might not be as willing to buy every ev that's being produced right now >> so the inventors are going up in part because maybe some of

the demand has come off, the froth in demand as come off, but also because the supply chain issues have been solved? >> yeah, so, we're seeing rising new inventor for all power train options, and more ev makes and models, and coming from a really low base of ev inventory in 2022, so, that's helping to increase some of the percentage numbers you're seeing. >> kevin, help us make some sense of this, on tesla's call a couple weeks ago, you know, we know there's been the price decreases and elon and crew seems to think there's this price e hastity that should exist in these cars, and they are much cheaper, yet financing costs are higher but even if you look year over year, with the price cuts, you know, they're not that much more expensive with rates, financing rates that much higher what's going on with this whole idea that you lower prices a lot and there's still not increased demand as it relates to tesla? >> i just don't think we're

there to price parity completely with the internal combustion engines out there. looking at the data from car gurus today, a month in october, average listing price of a new ev was 28% higher than an internal combustion engine vehicle. so, there still is some pricing premium out there. and i think that's really giving consumers pause when looking towards evs with some of the potential issues regarding charging availability and range anxiety. >> when you look at the f-150 truck, the electric version of that truck is $8,000, $10,000 more than the internal combustion engine version of it. >> yeah, i was looking at the f-150 versus the f-150 lightenlightnin today. f-150 lightning, a little over $72,000. if you put that into -- >> that's a serious difference >> yeah, serious difference, and if you put that into a 60-month loan with a near 8% interest rate, just the msrp difference

could lead to a $250 difference in your monthly payment. that's really giving consumers pause. >> among the ev models that you see, which is -- which are the ones that are slowing -- that are selling the slowest, where the inventory build is greatest? they're sitting on the lots longest? you know, tesla doesn't have that problem, because they sell direct to consumer they don't have a lot of cars sitting on their lot >> yeah, it's going to be an interesting case study of, you know, the retail sales model versus the direct to consumer model. there's definitely pros towards the retail model, and we'll see how that evolves into the marketplace. i think what the real kind of question now is, we saw automakers really moving quickly to get new evs to marketplace, to parry tesla's dominance in the market, but we're seeing now is a lot of early adopters have likely adopted and with that pricing parity still not there, we're likely seeing some hesitancy towards kind of mass adoption at this rate.

>> all right, kevin, thank you very much. appreciate your time tonight >> thank you, happy halloween. >> happy halloween, yeah that's good. that's great all right, folks, we're going to move on, aren't we going to take a little moment, come back for your final trades. - [soldier] take a look at this! - they've left us a gift. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them. - i love horses. (birds chirping)

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all right, tim's phone is talking to him it's time for our final trade. >> nice to get a little heads up we're coming back from break >> tim, what is your final trade? >> must have been the uranium gods talking about ccj we're at cycle peak. this stuff is going a lot higher >> karen >> yes, i'm staying short tlt one more day we'll see tomorrow how they're going to fund this deficit >> all right, dan? >> all right -- >> stretch it out a little bit here we got time. >> that was jerry garcia and bob we weir, 1980 on "the today show.

>> guy >> enjoy d.c going tonight? >> tomorrow morning. >> staff trip. cnbc is fortunate to have you. we are fortunate to have you >> i'm delighted to be with you, every time >> be fortunate, though, in caesars. czr. >> beautiful segue >> all right, caesars. thanks, everybody. thanks for fast money with jim cramer. >> my mission is simple, to make you money, i am here to level the playing field for all investors, i promise to help you find it, mad money starts right now. >> welcome to cramer, jim cramer, med money, entertain and educate, call, 1-800-743 cnbc, you should go, it's idling, at jim cramer, miserable