tv Mad Money CNBC October 31, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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going tonight? >> tomorrow morning. >> staff trip. cnbc is fortunate to have you. we are fortunate to have you >> i'm delighted to be with you, every time >> be fortunate, though, in caesars. czr. >> beautiful segue >> all right, caesars. thanks, everybody. thanks for fast money with jim cramer. >> my mission is simple, to make you money, i am here to level the playing field for all investors, i promise to help you find it, mad money starts right now. >> welcome to cramer, jim cramer, med money, entertain and educate, call, 1-800-743 cnbc, you should go, it's idling, at jim cramer, miserable
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market, that's my formal summary what befell us even as the average just did fine, gain point -- pointed percent, nasdaq, little bit less than the others, and it's not as bad, this is the second positive day, we shrugged off a wayward opening, we know the s&p 500, don flight, and still nasdaq up a huge 23%, but i'm calling that number out, i am saying that number is an imposter. you know what it is, it's a halloween joke, a trick, because the averages strength comes almost entirely for me handful of stocks, my dips and some, amazon, mensah, tesla, and those, if you were in those in the run-up caught seems like ages ago, you would think that 2023 is one busted year with
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the blessed couple of months ago. >> he feels lousy and miserable, when we look at that, it seemed wounded, not getting advantage, scattered signs of strength, as well as do, aerospace and defense, always one sector that stays afloat, urging to come in, the water looks fine, so what the heck is going on? a couple of things are at work, they really are what makes the markets very repulsive, even with rallies, we round the bend, make a projection for 2024 for every company, how everyone is feeling about next year, thanks to the relentless rate hikes and long-term treasury yields keep soaring there is no trust in the numbers. no one believes, they think it will be awful, recession see the numbers, when you don't believe in management, you don't search for reasons to own anything, you bowled.
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the arts of crushed bones. let's talk about caterpillar, that was a big win for the bears, transforming caterpillar from a deep cyclical company into one that has a smoother growth path. and today a much better-than expected quarter, flying earlier, 650, it will finish stronger than he thought, of course you think that's his -- that is a recipe for higher stock prices, but if you thought that, you would be dead wrong. >> cell cell cell. >> that earnings, stock goes down more than 6%, it was hideous, house of pain. nobody trusted a company like caterpillar can be estimates no matter what assurances they give, because the us economy in the world is slowing down, nevermind the ceo is navigating the company pretty much for me since january 2017, does it
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matter if the stock has doubled during that time, every year in the last 20 nine -- 29 years, it doesn't matter if the us government is going to spend an insane amount on infrastructure, doesn't mean anything, isn't worth a warm bucket of's bits -- of spit. we do it based on the macro environment and the yield curve, we hear from the fed tomorrow, if he talks tough, it will go lower, probably, along with other stocks that are regarded as cyclical, was to step out of that, we are going to reevaluate them tomorrow, where do i come out? i'm not in the reevaluation gain, i like franchises, if they get too high, we do that, we sold some cats, the to 70s, precisely because we thought they would be knocked down, china orders are weak even though china is less than 5% of the business or by people who don't trust him despite his star track record, buy some
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stock, we can do will be one, but we tell people what we would be doing. this kind of reevaluation nonsense happens with every single thing, a breaking news story today, $5 billion, and the trade restrictions. we have been saying that every single day, exclusive news, they are not going to flow back -- they're going to flow back to the u.s., and it's going to dislodge business, but maybe the business is not for everybody, signaling back after reporting, after the stock went down 4 points, and came back up four points, it was revalued within 30 seconds. instant reevaluation right? i don't know, which one is which, it is not tenable. like cat or other situations, not going to get the benefit of the doubt, the negative story should've been written like
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that, doesn't matter, doesn't matter if he has the best track record, they are not going to get the benefit of the doubt now, wall street will give it to anyone in this environment. i think you should own nvidia not traded same with apple, but stocks are going to get hit, and probably club beyond all right mission, i don't know the news will be spun negatively, nvidia can't do it without china, cutting numbers and this and that, who has been right, me or them? i rest my case. service now was able to post a positive quarter and the stock went up, that is one, have to find another, i have others have to check into, the market grinds down everything to the nub of a pencil, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, thanks, industrials, utilities, fin tech , real estate, you name it, one
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sector after another, another anecdote. menta platform so stock fall 20 points when they said advertising was for, but last night they said the pauses ended, so i think buyers will eventually flock back to menta and reevaluated right back to work was, but it should have gone that much to begin with, lacking trust, the stock market -- your stock might get affected. the average so much, you think buyers would be less discerning and make dealers less skeptical, we find out whether the treasury department plans to fund that short or long, will it raise money, in the next couple of years, a 20 or 30 year levels, it will only be worse if the fed says something in that press conference, the silly press conference where people say mr. fed chair, you're awful or whatever and he is to call another person, he publicly humiliates himself
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users better costs this instant will rea >> it stops when either long term interest rates peak, either because the bond market somehow manage to reach real buyers when they come in, or the federal reserve says it done tightening and stop selling the monster bond, positive days like yesterday and today makes you feel like one of the bullish outcomes could be right around the corner, a lot of us have faithfully 2024 projections, will he get smashed, and the stocks rally today? the games will be repealed instantly. people, everything is just a trick. here's the bottom line, maybe we can only trust 2024 when we are in 2024 just trust it when, heaven help us, treasury bonds go down and yield up in price a couple of days in a row, with that be too much to ask? maybe not, but i wouldn't bet on it. let's go to raj california.
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>> is in california, i want to ask regarding lyft stock. >> a well reasoned peace and everything is well thought out, really smart people, they all went to stanford, it's a hard school to get into what we know is, they think it will be that, i like lyft but i don't like the stock right here, he's a smart fellow, i think the piece was too negative and biased, but i think he went to caltech or something, a smart school, he's a mad, he was magnum. geoff in california. >> hey jim, glad i got you on the phone, i been listening to for so long. the days when he used to throw chairs against the wall. >> i slipped a disc frankly, don't do that, i hit it really well. >> you did a good job. [ laughter ] >> drop foot, when you can't
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put your foot up, are not supposed to what your health. i should've said that. >> i met a question for you. what's going on with her she? >> people look at that cut for small it is hollowing, so happy halloween, and treated us, but not tricked us, here's what's happening with her she got people feel like they we list chocolate because the gop wants these drugs, deeply chocolate, if the gop won or not, it tastes good, that's why they needed. and i got into stanford, and i said no. true. [ laughter ] how will we know if the market is a treat and not a trick, if we can trust it, when treasury bonds finally go down and yield for couple of days, we will have to wait and see, is that too much tonight? on mad money, ag co., so the stock higher, but cautious commentary, i don't is it still
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all right, let's talk to the top brass. then we only have one way of celebrating halloween, consulting the fear gauge, seeing what it could be signaling, and pfizer, a cobra treatment vaccine, i hope you get the vaccine, investors getting the buying opportunity, buying opportunity, stay with those really great schools and creamer. don't miss a second of mad money, have a question? tweet hashtag mad scott cnbc.tom. or give us a call, one 807 or three see in. head to mad money.cnbc.com.
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we need to talk about the total breakdown with all things agriculture stocks, crop processors and farm equipment, they vomited, crop prices a pull back from their highs, real success fighting inflation, but wasn't there a fee the world thesis that was going to make the group more durable? is that real or just a figment of bullish imaginations? that's what i was wondering about when we heard from agricole, raising a full-year earnings forecast, it jumped more than 2% but down more than 20% from march highs, let's take a close look with the chairman and president and ceo of ag co , welcome back to mad money. >> always good to talk to jim.
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>> i have mixed emotions, i would talk what tech, to, i find the pattern, two or 3% lower, south america, two or 3% lower than 2023, western europe down to 3%, how is it uniform? in the world? >> and the demands are down, it is down more, and higher machinery, and mixed together, it just so happens of numbers lineup, and for the will change so we can since that and had it shot up and really come down, and better off than the conceit -- for the consumer than they were?>> general, we had hyper
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demand of the last two or three years,omdi prices of fluid, normalizing to some degree, and and planters and sprayers, and were normal and higher than we had pre-covid but not crazy like the early days of covid.>> and regard that, and another company, you just have a product that is more productive and gives a bigger yield >> that's the whole focus of our strategy, to become the industry leader in smart farming solutions, we've raised the engineering spend 60% since we introduce the new strategy a few years ago, we bought six tech companies like you mentioned we had a huge, largest in the history of
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agriculture, ag tech deal with aaa, to become the industry leader in mixed decision ag, to try to solve farmer problems and make their more productive and more sustainable and usually the target is to give the farmer that solution with a payback with about the worst case too, is a quick payback for them. >> how's that possible, fewer people that would work for them, a remarkable productivity enhancement. >> not so much about the labor but the inputs, the fertilizer, another chemical, if you loaded up in a train car, it would be a train that goes all the way around the planet, yet only half of the fertilizer is used by the plant, the rest of it gets wasted, so a lot of technologies are putting the fertilizer down such that the plant can use it and we don't put any extra down.
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one of the latest technologies is targeted spring, artificial intelligence, identify the difference between the weed and the crop and only sprays the weed instead of the entire field, it saves like 70% of the chemical, big expenses for the farmer, gives them a lot of economic benefit and fast payback but requires the technology and artificial intelligence on the machines to make it happen. >> is making the stuff for you? >> largely we are designing and developing ourselves, we use pliers for some components but developing sensors and software, developing a lot of her own control units and things like that, and now as we form this joint venture with trimble, we own 85%, they do 50%, they do work and outsource some manufacturing of electronics but fundamentally it is their ip, so we doesn't we are each developing our own technologies
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to solve these problems>> is a possible overall the cost of food can go down and farmers to make more money, and we have a virtuous circle? >> if remember, we have three big drivers of demand, 8 billion up to 10 billion people, diets are maturing, green based diets to more and more meets in the diet, and multiplier on the demand for green, if you had beef cotton times multiple, biofuels, all three are saying we have to have way more productivity and yield, and yet weightless carbon generation, these are the kinds of technologies that make the equation work. we've seen the ethanol boom, 40% of the corn crop is used for ethanol. not many people are talking about this yet jim, we are focused on renewable diesel and
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aviation fuel, and the next couple of years it becomes 40% of the soybean crop, a huge demand driver in the short term just on the one leg of renewable fuels, lots of demand drivers, to say we have to get more out of every acre of the farm in the world the only way to do that is to be precise with technology. >> a great synopsis of what's going on, i didn't understand it myself, too close to analysis, to since this and that, the corporation and president and ceo, he totally has it under control, thank you for splitting that to our viewers, it's terrific, appreciated. >> enjoyed my time. >> thank you take care. coming up, when volatility is rocking due, knocking on my money's door, taming the beast next.
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we have a very oversold market, a reprieve from selling so far this week but we are stuck with a difficult take a hostage to the bond market in the price of oil, and the federal reserve, meeting, makes it hard to tell more than a trade, we know the rug could be pulled out from us in any moment, i like to take emotions out, but a more quantitative this perspective not touchy- feely, we are going with mark sebastian, the star of option pitt.com, we are always going to him what were trying to get a better read on volatility. he likes to watch the cboe volatility index, it is fear, howling, nice thing going, it
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is the fear gauge, we can show you what investors are feeling more frightened her more confident, trick-or-treat, and the averages more likely to change course, even though the s&p 500 is love, and the nasdaq is crazy but obliterated since a peak in late july, however from his perspective it hasn't been a particularly scary selloff, a couple percent on any , during the three months light it was at the 21st, s&p 500 was down one .6%, the decline is been relentless but somewhat gradual, which is why the whole process i think is so excruciating. normally was falling, almost always means the opposite direction from the average, really called fear gauge, supposed to take off, sebastian thinks the selling has been
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methodical, that's why, the grind down i keep telling desmond talking about, the worst declined during the period, period,, and finished the session close to the 20, take a look at this chart, the closed movement on the s&p 500 attend a historic volatility in red, try going back to june, short-term volunteer the investment volatility began, currently 13 points five, but when you zoom out to the daily chart, going back to july, for following over 18 today, would become october 20, the 20 day historic volatility was yet 13.2six, in fact despite the short-term volatility it's the
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low, climbing steadily higher even though the pullback from the highs during this week's benign trading. chick of this pair of charts, s&p 500 on the top of the volatility index on the bottom, sebastian like to look at them in tandem, negatively correlated, and it tells you something strange might be happening. he points out that every dip since the beginning of september it's made a higher high followed by a higher low, he said that's what it looks like when the volatility index is wrapping up even as the s&p 500 is rebounded, perfectly ordinary from his perspective, when the s&p goes down it is supposed to go up and vice versa, likely to continue before the trend change, they tend to start trading the same direction, that's how you know when something's up, but were not there yet. however, sebastian says we can get a tip off was volatility
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relatively outperforming the s&p 500, how do you measure that? the vix in blue and in the volatility, one month trading in red, you can see the vix is above the actual realized volatility, and carly white of vermont, something has to give, even the historic volatility is going to jump over the volatility index needs to come down. according to sebastian, with the spread between volatility and implied volatility is this big it's usually in response to a vix spike, or event, it is not spike so something else might be go on -- going on, he says that means the vix is wrong we are approaching a bottom but based on a small sample set, but usually doesn't run this high without a major financing action. sought whited back from march
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when the banks we thought might be going belly up, the crisis ended up being much less serious than initially seemed with the first selloff was horrific. in short, while the vix saying things are going to get much uglier, the historic volatility says is wrong, either the rally or a multi-standard deviation down, the bottom line, interpreted by mark sebastian shows that volatility is percolating, the difference between the vix and historic volatility has gotten very wide, a sign that we are at this precise moment, whether it's positive or negative remains to be seen, let's go to arden in florida, hello arden. >> hello jim, spoke with you a few times, back to the kudlow days >> churich, my pal larry. >> mike question is, with devon
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energy trading 46 anoxia to the one, kevin pays 2%, oxley pays 1% but the price is two dollars higher for locksey? >> we don't know what devon ultimately will pay ultimately, and devon energy has had several early backorders which i don't understand, is there a darn good company, it is much more to do with the inconsistency of devon energy, of anything else, ever she to call, this i perceive my friend larry, we had a great show going for many years. >> i'm a club number and love the home stretch, one of the best things. >> will we go at it, there's no script and everything on treat -- tv scripted or prepared, but
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that's the most unprepared thing i've ever done publicly, so i'm glad you like it. should try just listen to the crazy 2:00 broadcast we do. thank you.>> i like the dividends, a good dividend stock, i bought it 80, it's down to 70, a close and start. >> i tell you, in the end, it is in the end morgan stanley, on it was 10-15 and said we are going to make it would they ever, have to tell you, if i was running were stanley, is a buyback 10% of the company right here right now regulators i have the capitol do it, there's an awful lot of the stocks, showing the spread between the vix it is worth volatility is not very wide, a sign that we are pushing a decisive moment. is indeed very spooky. pfizer has been acting for a
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companies to build the pipeline, trying to get ahead of things that could come in the next decade, the stock is now down 40% for the year, the drug stocks of gum style but company specific things, pfizer off at seate genetics, the highld priced deal that could take years to be additive, don't even know regulators will it happen even though i think they should, 514%, a lot more attractive by comparison, doesn't help that we are headed to an election year. and if that were not enough, they announced the government is returning the big stock of paxil of it, the covid drug, and the forecast response, isn't selling as well as expected, the new covid vaccine, numbers came in its headlights, and the forecast for me a few weeks ago, not what we wanted to hear but stocks have come down dramatically from the high, what we do, we spoke with
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the chairman and ceo of pfizer, take a look. >> doctor, thank you and welcome back to mad money. >> hello, how are you? >> i'm fine, how are you sir? >> i'm very well. >> liske over the quarter and the year, a pretty well-defined strategy, tremendous success with fighting covid with the vaccine, made some wise acquisitions but i want to be sure, there's a disconnect between your stock price what you have gotten your portfolio and pipeline, i want to be sure how you acquaint yourself with the transition with the covid money to these acquisitions? >> clearly we are not happy with the way the stock prices performing this year, it is coming down to two things, a level of uncertainty about revenues and a lot of concerns,
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if we take the worst case scenario, it's very high, we tried to address both, several agreements we've done, but very high certainty for someone for the covid revenues for the years to come and we announced the program and it aligns more, the cost base with a new estimation. with that behind us, what really matters, it is working on covid business is doing, and just today we announced 10% growth in our non-covid revenues, which is tremendous and way ahead of what the analysts were expecting. >> that's kind of where i'm coming from, something that occurred that is fortuitous and i'm not trying to make light of it, but you picked a spokesperson, travis kelce, because of his association with
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taylor swift might be the most famous sports person the world, and an antagonist, and aaron rodgers, mocking him, is that the kind of awareness you need to build prescriptions and that -- build vaccines, and then they can realize the power of your portfolio. >> yes, he is a wonderful spokesperson for us and we are proud we are associating her name for him -- with him. >> is it working? i feel like right now i got my flu and my pfizer covid, and i felt rather pioneer-ish, i foot on a loan, i know of the people with it, but why doesn't everyone do it and what is the resistance?>> without we would have 24% of americans, doing a covid vaccine this year, so far it looks like it's turning more towards 70 or 80% of done it
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but the months ahead of us are very strong, there are many reasons why it is low, we are far away from the covid fear, with the vaccine, now we are in the middle of covid fatigue and no one was talk about it, and the rhetoric, but those were doing it is because they truly believe in the value vaccinations, the assumption what will be as a floor going forward. >> there is some sort of vaccine fatigue in this country right now that i think is affecting your earnings?>> you are right but it is mainly in the covid area, because it's done tremendously better than what we thought, tremendously better than what we thought, and the analysts, -- thought,
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and we know how they are trending, there is little bit of covid fatigue, it reflects only number of covid vaccinations, but also don't forget, became a little bit late in the season, and september approximately, rick white a wave of covid and doing the vaccine before four months after they had covid. >> this morning i wake up at 3:20 am and i realize, my trainer is going to come in a few minutes, i popped my one, no migraine, as a chief spokesperson for the american migration, i'm thinking maybe you don't have enough awareness there, you pay them $11.6 billion for this? the franchise, and for 3 billion this year, considerably less, in 2020 forgan, lysik is
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going to be less, it's not your fault serve but there is a painful lack of awareness of this wonder drug. what can you do to get the word out, which would also benefit pfizer's shareholders of course. >> no doubt, but right now things are not bad actually, we had this quarter 20% more scripts than we had last year, and actually the last week of october was the highest week ever recorded, 23,000 physicians prescribing it, now we have 70+ percent that are prescribing it, clearly we can do more and we have a lot of activities to educate physicians and the public and also to enlarge the axis, we are going deeper into access. so i'm quite optimistic that it will do very well. >> i wish they would spend more than 15 minutes on it, given the number of sufferers.
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is absurd. and almost 0 overlap with your company i believe but here we have ftc request, $43 billion, love to see they get rolling, because you said it will be there for three or four years, where is that, what i thought was a natural fit for pfizer>> we are progressing our discussions, this is the last step and still remains, we just got two weeks ago the unconditional clearance, and the overlap, very well, so awaiting the discussions with the ftc, and still we are optimistic and we hope to close, before year-end, or the beginning of next year, and join forces and we are ready, we have already created our organizational chart, for pfizer in college he --
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oncology, we have since acted leaders, and the plan, our next thing, i think is that, we're going to kill cancer. >> there are cancers that routinely kill people right now and if you look at see jen, there might be some that are not death sentences? >> we come every year with a new one, remember, they presented last week some data from bladder cancer which is a very difficult cancer, but people have a 12 month survival rate unfortunately, and 31 months, from 12 up to 31, that is transformational, and every six months were going to have something like that happening. so we will make cancer a chronic disease, you can live with it rather than a death sentence. >> that will be amazing.
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the gop won, but it could be like cholesterol, there's a lot of money to make with everyone, if you get approval with your pill you can make a lot of money, am i being too optimistic about this class of drugs? >> no it seems like it has significant advantages, gop, and -- glp. he can become a $100 million market, and maybe even more, and it is going to create -- going to feel that, a lot of people will feel the gap, i don't think there are so many coming in the market but clearly it is a big market. >> yes, i think people don't like this health injection but keeping down blood pressure and weight and diabetes of course, the pfizer chairman and ceo,
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thank you so much for coming on the show, clarifying what i think is a very inexpensive situation with a lot of opportunity, good to see you. >> absolutely, good to see you. coming up, creamer takes your calls, and the sky, a fast fire lightning round next. ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo.
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start with kristin illinois.>> hi jim. during the last few months at a position in new portsmouth energy, should i add to the position? -- new fortress energy. >> it's money, does that mean the stock will go up but it's money, i share your support for new fortress energy. check in florida? >> hello jim, from boynton beach. >> love that, a great signing there, speak to me. >> okay listen, we had a brutal october and hoping for a better december and november and a santa claus rally. >> i want to ask you for a stock that has been bouncing like a super bowl between 150 and 200, and the analysts are pretty positive on it, i want to get your thoughts on celsius holdings. >> p saturday saying this is the greatest but it's too high,
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i would really like this, i missed it, i missed it my feel really stupid, but he didn't, stanford was my backup school, can we get that on the record, and i think celsius as a buyer, just own up, i missed it, sorry. >> stephen in tennessee. >> thank you for taking my call. get your thoughts on the recent spinoff, particular, ncr. >> i was saying to myself, this is a really bad piece of merchandise but you know what, i'm a forgiving guy and a kind guy and a good guy, we will do more work. eric in florida. >> what's going on? >> you tell me. >> the capital group, buy, sell or hold? >> i have not recommended
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insurers, it's just my insurers, i only recommend chubb . >> riley in texas. >> hello, i hope you're enjoying this part of the year. in the manufacturing sector, specifically 3-d systems corp. . >> that went down, i don't know if you noticed that, walter.>> hello. >> walter, how are you doing? >> happy halloween. down 45% >> the lightning round is so realistic, going back and forth, with matt, you know, and we think it is probably a 7.4% yield, i like that idea, given the hook, that ladies and gentlemen, what he called the
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buy stock based on discounted cash forecast or reason of rice or some other metric, and then there is this, global ev meltdown, early playbook, deutsche bank research, this is a true page, a good as gold primer to the eve of the discretion to the investment case for electric vehicles. before i go into it, think about it a few years ago, when electric vehicles were still novel, he couldn't wait o switch from that or even a hybrid, a noiseless electric car, chevy bolt, or electric hummer, and the mustang, from investor perspective got two choices, billed as the greatest secular growth story ever told, the auto market is worth trillions of dollars, and you could say the overvalued tesla or the undervalued ford and gm, the earnings multiples, come hither, we know that tesla stock cut to high and a
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miserable investment, even those making a lot of money long term, ford and gm are looking like value traps because they spent fortunes on electric vehicles just when we realized that most of these cars are too expensive for consumers. the batteries are too expensive too, when you thrown a huge win by united auto workers, you are left with a plan in tatters, and worse ford and gm are against tesla, and he's like rockefeller building standard oil, he has a lower cost basis then a nonunion workforce and maybe uaw to change that, think back to her interview with stephen sure, they are all in on tesla, and a lot of repairs which are difficult to do, and they depreciate rather rapidly, which is quite opposite of what he predicted, the appreciation with ridesharing, pretty much would be idle time spent.
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appreciation no? depreciation. it's hard for a publicly traded company, making a product that fewer and fewer people seem to one, it is being replaced by sticker shock and interest charges, and when i make mistakes for the travel trust, a ready companion piece to the meltdown note at morgan stanley, talking about the bull thought process on ford and gm, why do we need to pay 100 times for tesla when i can get jim or ford for six times, which gives me the ev business for free, a dark way rhetorically, what investors seem to be waking up to today is the idea that tens of billions of dollars invested in ev may be value destructive rather than value accretive. is difficult to see a way out of the box, more more losses of the legacy oil companies use their outsized pockets to subsidize their unwise electric vehicle production, but it must occur, making the best maybe
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they get the cost down but i don't know how, but i do know this the current situation is simply untenable in the global electric vehicle meltdown, is much as i don't want to happen at ford could truly be upon us. there's always a bull market somewhere, i will find it just for you ♪ right on "last call," forget the fed. we will tell you what is happening tomorrow that could be more important for your money. elon musk sounding off on twitter >> you know, a state publication is the way i think of twitter. >> will advertisers come back? the government trying to block major airline merger what it means for the cost of your next flight. one. former hottest companies in america reportedly going bankrupt trick-or-treat not s
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