it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters, and here's your "five@5." we start with wall street kicking off a new trading month in the red after doing something for the first time since early 2020. also, investor attention shifts from earnings to jay powell and the feds with them set to look at the policy decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. and the trade may be hours ahead of the rate decision. plus rae stocks, they're

getting knocked. and later we have a closing argument in that closely watched criminal trial of former ceo sam bankman-fried. remember, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's get you ready to start your day as always. we're going to kick off the hour with u.s. stock futures. red across the board. the dow looks like it would open up 130 points lower. the nasdaq and s&p also opening up lower. the dow and s&p capping off a three-month losing streak. it's shaping up to be a busy one, and it's not just earnings. we get the fed decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern time followed by a news conference with jay powell

at 2:30. the big market event could happen at 8:30 eastern time when the fed makes its announcement outlining how much debt the government will issue over the next two quarters ahead of the size and date. we start with the benchmark 10-year, ticking up a few more basis points. the 2-year and 30-year up. yesterday the long bond was a few basis points under a 5% yield. we want to look at energy. oil, moving higher. brent crude up at almost 1%. natural gas, the most volatile down 1.5% while we see a lot more movement. that's the u.s. setup. let's see how asia and europe are doing. we have our jp in the newsroom

and julianna tatelbaum in london. jp, let's start with you. >> the asian stocks followed some of the same losses we saw on wall street. there could be a number of reason. the escalation between israel and hamas capped off a lot of uncertainties. it spurred some of the outflows making it one of the worst performers in the region for thement of october. but i want to focus on two particular reasons and factors that might have weighed on sentiment here in the region for that particular month, and one is the worry of a continuing china economic slowdown. home prices looking under pressure as china starts to decide will they or won't they support stimulus with the world economy which is connected with

many of the economies in the asia region. the property sector saw things escalate after country garden, one of the biggest developers in china, defaulted on one of ids bo its bonds. also the overall health sentiment with regard to china's markets and financial system is something to watch out. if the other thing to watch out for is how the japanese yen moved in the last 40 days. we saw it breach 151 against the greenback because of the worries about the rates being higher for longer as the rate differential between the bank of japan and the u.s. fed. we have to remember that the japanese yen just today found a little bit of breathing room after some of the top officials said they might intervene if they start to see more one-sided direction. keep in mind the yen at that level once again volatile but

also casting uncertainty with regard to japanese markets. that's what happened in the month of prior, but in the first day of november, we saw a bit of a reprieve. take a look at the models. they continue to feed into it with no clarity, it seems inside. hopefully that clears up in the next couple of weeks. that's going to be a wait and see thing from china to hong kong. back to you. >> thank you very much. jp ong live in singapore. we turn it over to london and our julianna tatelbaum. good morning. >> frank, good morning. we're kicking things off in the month of november on mixed footing. stocks higher as investors digest earnings and embrace for the policy decision. much like you've seen in asia and the u.s., we're coming off a brutal october. the losses have been steeper than the losses stateside. you see the benchmark,

underperforming, dropping more than 5%. pretty steep markets. the cac 40 and france losing 3%. the mercedes-benz dropping nearly 16%. bmw dropping nearly 10%. the electric vehicle picture has become a lot more difficult in recent months. you've got tesla strategy to gain market share. we're trying to break into this space. at the same time you've got macro headwinds. making it more costly for consumers to buy evs. a perfect storm for the automaker. the banks have also come under particular selling pressure and the uk banks especially. here's a picture of how the uk banks have ended temperature month. nearly 25% lower. barclay, nearly 20%.

the story here in large part down to the margin outlook. it seems as though we passed the inflection rate where we translate it into higher margins for the banks and now they're forced to pass on interest rates and finally some of the best performing stocks are in the market as the conflict in israel has boosted demand for the companies on the basis of the expectation as we could see more defense spending in the future. frank? >> julianna tatelbaum live in the newsroom. the market is kicking off a new trading month after a rough three months for stocks. that slumped setting the record holdings to money market funds now at more than $5.5 trillion. that's according to the investment company. joining me now, chief strategist at principal asset management. good to have you here. >> good morning. >> record amount of money and cash on the sidelines not being invested. you see that money coming off

the sidelines any time soon, and how does jay powell's news conference today, how could it impact that? >> i think it's probably a little bit early. what we're hearing is investors are uncertain on what the path is ahead. you've got geopolitics and the interest rate as well as the recent increase in bond yields, which they're scratching their heads about. as as soon as we have clarity and the feds have finished hiking, they'll come back in. it's key, but today it will be a nonevent. we know the fed is very unlikely to raise rates today. its focus is going to be on the press conference, what jay powell has to say about the recent increase in bond yields and what they believe to be the

driver. >> i think the consensus is just a pause, but we have another big event today, the treasury auction. that's certainly going to be an event. right now, $776 billion in debt being auctioned off. how do you see that impacting both the bond market and also the equity market. again, yields and bonds providing a lot of competition for equity. >> typically we wouldn't even be talking about this kind of event, but this time because the last increase triggered concerns, that's one of the key issues. we've seen that spike. that speak is seen as one of the impacts that have been the equity markets struggling to digest it. you're right to say it's a big event. it's probably a little bit more. it's important what you're going to see from the fed state. if you were to see a bigger auction site than expected and bond yields were to have it

higher, i think the equity markets will be under some pressure. >> right now we're showing the short end of the curve. look at the yields. 5.4% yield. i want to ask you, when you're advising clients, is now the time or do you want to lock in the rates for longer even though the yield's a bit lower? >> there is, of course, a lot of temptation as you said, that the yields are very, very high, especially from a historical perspective, but you do have the risk that that will end very quickly. if you're locking it in, it's probably a good idea because if you look at it six months, nine months time, the chances are it will have fallen a bit. you're likely to see a bit of an economic slowdown as well as anticipation of potential rate cuts. and all those things should be pushing yields lower from the longer end. we would say this is the time to think about longer duration rather than the shorter

duration. >> it doesn't seem like investors are thinking that way. as you mentioned, there's a lot of money sitting in the market funds. that has a lot of yield. in your mind, is there a big difference between being in a money market or a short-term bond? >> i think there are a couple of differences there. the reason they're sitting in cash in money market funds is because they're not sure about it. there's uncertainty. that's the reason. once you have nor certainty, you'll look at the bond market and real estate. i think it's a case of what is driving your rationale. be invested because when that turn comes, it will likely come pretty quickly. so there's uncertainty now, but it should be cleared up within the next few months. >> a lot of uncertainty now. seema shah, it's also great to

see you. time to turn to some of our top stories this vana henao. zillow down. and the jury ruling the national association of realtors and others conspired to artificially drive the permissions that home sellers pay to buyers brokers. now defenders including keller williams, berkshire hathaway and others say they will appeal the verdict which calls for $1.7 billion in class action damages. elon musk says tesla is planning to make 200,000 units of its cyber truck per year once production starts to ram up up.

speaking on the joe rogan podcast, manufacturing the vehicle has been much harder than the design. shares are down 24%. its 52-week high hit july. that's one side that deutsche bank calls a global ev meltdown. and closing arguments begin in the criminal trial of former ceo sam bankman-fried after defense rested its case shortly before noon yesterday. this follows two days of cross-examination by the prosecution of bankman-fried who stumbled through questions over past tweetses, balance sheets, and text messages. bankman-fried faces a potential life sentence if convicted on charges tied to the clasp of crypto hedge funds. a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange" including

one word investors have to know today. but first uk prime minister reshih tzu knack at one of the safety summits today. we're on the grounds of the historic park. and global ad concerns hit more high-flying tech stock and more on wework. we have a busy hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us.

the power goes out and we still have wifi

to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're looking at a live event being held at a historic venue. arjun, good morning. >> good morning, frank. it's home of the world war ii code break. this big named event expecting to have kamala harris and google and tesla and spacex ceo elon muffing who will be speaking to prime minister ruishi sunak tomorrow. the prime minister spiking a few d days ago. they's what they're going to be addressing here, the risk associated with ai, some of the

risks of losing control with the systems. and the aim is to build global consensus how to safely development symptomatic of this technology. one point of contention is the invitation from the uk to china. there will be chinese representation here on the ground from the government and from companies as well. it's controversial, of course, given the tensions that remain in the u.s. and china but also the uk in the realm. ahead of the summit, i had a chance to catch up with google's representative and ask him his thoughts about working on ai safety with china. let's listen in. >> i think we have to talk to everyone at this stage. still fairly early in the ai arc, i would say, or age. i think we're all trying to understand better what these technologies are going to be.

>> you had the executive order from the president, the statement on policy and this is a push by the world to keep an eye on the rapidly evolving ai. >> you mentioned leaders who will attend and those who will not attend. uk hosting this. where do they stand when it comes to ai? >> when you look across the globe, you look at microsoft, google, and others. you look at alibaba. again, china very strong in the field of ai. but uk very much a distant third at this point in time. they've not got much in the way of giants. but very strong in terms of universities and churning out talents. remember google deepmind was a british company that google

bought a few years back. i think the uk minister is hoping hosting this summit, when it comes to thinking forward and developing ai safely will draw in that investment and talent to the uk's ai scene, frank. >> arjun kharpal live at buckingham. straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," microsoft's office assistant clippy, looking to get it right. we will see if it moves the needles for investors and fiofce workers alike. stay with us. s, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting

and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley new nature's bounty hair growth. clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. with cirkul, your water is deliciously flavored at the turn of a dial, with zero sugar and zero calories. and cirkul has over 40 flavors, so your water can be as unique as you are. try cirkul. your water, your way. now with even more flavors. available at walmart or drinkcirkul.com.

ai has the power to automate, but if it's using untrusted data can you trust the results? your business doesn't just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy ai, all with your trusted data.

let's create the right ai for your business with watsonx. ibm. let's create. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time now for your big money movers. we're going to start with shares of yum china. they're down more than 12%. stocks are falling after the fast food operator fell on revenues and saw a weak bs of its pizza hut brand. softer consumer demand peaked in september. shares down more than 12%. hr payroll losing a quarter of its market value on the heels of fourth quarter revenue and adjusted eps guidance. shares are already off by 21% this year even before this premarket move down 36, almost 37% right now.

weak q4 sales guidance is weighing on the stock this morning. the outlook reflects the impact of, quote, weakening global advertising. shares of match group right now down just about 8%. we're watching shares of microsoft as ai powered co-pilots are going live today, rivalling ai investments from google and amazon. our steve covax has more on what that means. >> today microsoft starts yelling its most important new product in years, the ai assistant, now offering it to businesses that offer it to microsoft 365. it will cost 30% per user, per month, on top of the $23 most

eligible customers are already paying, proving co-pilot can product enough of a productivity boost to justify the cost. it can filter out the most important messages from your inbox. it can generate powerpoint presentations or word documents to save you time. it's all powered by the same technology as chatgpt. while microsoft has been conservative about its sales of co-pilot, the street calls it an iphone moment taking advantage of the lead and likening its to microsoft's early start in cloud computing. and researchers at forester last week estimated 9.6 million people will be using copilot by 2024. that ends out to an extra $2 million per month.

there are over 6.9 million users. it's ahead of any global competitor. frank? joining me now is james. great to have you here. microsoft copilot debuting today, 30 bucks a month. will it live up to the hype? >> i'm not sure that it will live up to the hype in terms of having staggering numbers come out of it. we've talked to others. the uptick is probably going to be slow as there's going to be testing it and beta testing it and what not. but we think thereafter if it delivers exactly as delivered, we think it will snowball incredibly well.

>> give us a sense. there's about 300 million office users. who doesn't use xl, power point, et cetera. what do you mean by major revenue driver? does it increase office subscriptions or is it the fact the majority of these 13 million people, they're going to buy ai copilot? >> i think they could. kind of the way i think about it, they can pick and choose versus microsoft being the one-stop solution back in the day during the antitrust-ishsue

era. they can play an indefensible part of i.t. budget, and i think if the productivity benefits afforded ai -- the thing about this, ai has been used in applications in business functions for quite some time now. this is nothing new. this is the first time it's being applied on the front lines in a very, very tangible way on your day-to-day business. so by major, this could be 10% of the revenue. >> that's a pretty bold prediction there. i want to ask you about this going forward. we kind of were making fun earlier, saying this is taking clippy to the next generation, but how do you see this being used in the near term by people? is this really going to be something that's going to make companies more productive in your mind? you mentioned reviews.

you're waiting to hear them. in the near term, right away, how does it work, someone sitting in their office? how do you see them using that, and how does it impact their views? >> i think it's going to be slow. i think the i.t. -- i'm talking the major i.t. departments, not is the smaller independent shops. i think it's going to be rolled out in different functions, in small groups just to see how it can be applied. i don't think there's a single answer as to how most would utilize the product. i think that it's going to be a learning thing both from microsoft's side because you can build the tool, but you're not exactly sure how it's going to be used. i think it's going to be erp wil learning on both sides and ultimately separates them from

everyone else. >> we'll have to see how it works out. certainly the competition heating up. james kakmam, thank you. >> the big fed backing off the very cautious outlook. much more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this . with cirkul, your water is deliciously flavored at the turn of a dial, with zero sugar and zero calories. and cirkul has over 40 flavors, so your water can be as unique as you are. try cirkul. your water, your way. now with even more flavors. available at walmart or drinkcirkul.com.

the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.

time on "worldwide exchange." there's a lot more ahead. u.s. treasury front and center, reportedly set to flood the market with a growing amount of high yielding debt that's seeing a shrinking for the buyers. it is november 1st, 2023. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. yes, it's november 1st, i'm sure of that. let's pick up the stocks with the dow and s&p coming off three straight months of losses. that's their longest all the way back since march of 2020 when the pandemic started. we're seeing right across the board, it looks like the dow would open up 120 points lower. that's a look at the futures. we wanted to shift our attention to earnings, the policy decision

due out at 2:30 p.m. eastern time with a jay powell news conference shortly after, almost certain the bank rates will be kept steady ahead of the fed's decision. the jury is still pretty much out. joining me now is citi economist veronica clark. thank you for joining us. good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> is it a hawkish pause? a dovish pause? and what about december? what do you see coming ahead? >> not expecting any fireworks in terms of the decision today. it's going to be likely the rates are going to be unchanged, thinking it could be a slightly hawkish pause. it was a few weeks ago thought we would not have heights. but data doesn't look like it's

consistently heading back just yesterday. >> gdp came in stronger than expected. we've had other issues -- not issues but reports that are giving traders issues worrying about the rate increase. what are you hearing from jay powell? he spoke that rates are doing a better job and he still believes we could see that quote, unquote soft landing. what are you expecting to hear from the news conference? >> we had the shift in rhetoric how that's tightening financial conditions and that does some of the work for the rate hike for the fed. but since that, we've had strong data and some fed officials kind of shifting back toward reminding us that ultimately they are data dependent. i think our forecast, the way we see the data playing out, the fed can stay on hold and we're not pencilling another hike in december, but it go oink to be very dependent specific.

>> pce, two cpis before the november/december decision. does that mean we're going to see the fed stop its rate hiking campaign and we're possibly, possibly on the path to cuts? >> yeah. this is our -- we're thinking we're at the terminal level now already, but that chance of a hike is still on the table. certainly today's meeting, there won't be an updated dot plot. there's not a clear opportunity to see if there's further hikes or not. they will maintain that optionality up until december, but the cases we've seen already, we would be looking for cuts as we're getting into next year, but it's a long way from now. >> one question i want to ask you about. we have the treasury option today. today a really big event. the reaction we see, does that impact the fed? is that something they pay attention to? >> yeah. supply concerns, deficit concerns i think has been one factor why we've seen longer

yields moving higher. the fed's told us the reactions moving higher is why we're not getting potentially another hike. so it definitely does matter that might be the more exciting event today. >> veronica clark, it's great to see you. thank you for getting up and joining us. we're going to stick with the fed now. one of the sectors most influenced by its rate decision housing. our diana olick joins us now with more. good morning. >> good morning, frank. the housing market has cooled off dramatically this fall. that's due to the sharp jump in mortgage rates. the average fixed started at 6.5%. now it's hovering over 8%. that's hitting affordability hard. there was an unexpected jump in new home listings which led to slightly higher inventory last month, but homes are still selling very quickly, keeping the overall inventory low.

prices were 2.6% higher than august of last year. that's up from the 1% increase in july. it's also 6% higher than when prices bottomed at the start of this year. interesting though, the city's seeing the biggest gains are not the pandemic hot spots. quite the opposite. chicago, new york, and detroit led the pack of gainers. meanwhile formerly strong markets like las vegas, phoenix, and san francisco are higher year over year and the regional differences are much bigger than they have been, and that is that markets have been historically more affordable and are no longer. without a break on interest rates we're going to see a very slow winter for sales and very little relief on prices, frank. >> i think everybody's looking for a little bit of relief, diana, even if it's only a very little bit right now. i want to ask you, if the fed is

paused, that will be two straight meetings. is that steady? if it does, does that bring buyers back into the market? >> well, i got a yes and a no for you. yes, it's go ing to steady mortgage rates, but it's not going to bring markets back. we need lower in mortgage rates. if anybody can afford to buy a home and wants to, they will. we're seeing demand and homes fly off pretty quickly. it's those who cannot get into the market because they cannot make the math work on a monthly payment at 7. 8% or 8% rate. they need that rate to come down significantly to get in. those are your first-time buyers. we need rates steady, not lower. >> new buyers, me, everybody needs the rate as bit lower, diana. while we have you, i do want to touch on one of the other stories, a closely watched one. residential real estate stocks took a hit after a landmark

commission. what does it mean long-term for these companies? >> yeah. that's right. the national association of realtors along with real estate brokers keller williams and berkshire hathaway homes of america, they were slapped with $1.8 billion in damages after a jury found them guilty of an antitrust lawsuit that could change the way homes are bought and sold. re/max had settled. but the damages could triple under antitrust rules. the suit claimed a conspiracy by requiring a listing agent compensate a buyer's agent for listing the prop it on the mls, which is the biggest home listing service. that means the seller has to pay both its agent and the buyer's agent in the end. this was the first two such suits. they added this matter is not

close to being final as we will appeal the jury's verdict. they're also asking the court to reduce the dajs. there's a note they worry there could be a drag on housing because they'll have to pay a commission to agents. so many are scraping to get in and if they had to pay buyer's agent commissions, that would hurt them a lot. >> diana, very quickly, you said the they're looking to appeal. could that prove to be more costly? >> look, this is not over. they could triple that $1.88 billion in damages. so you've got a second case coming. there's a lot of legal work ahead, that to be sure. yeah, we'll see what happens with the appeals and down the road, but everybody saying this isn't going to be over for a while.

>> tidiana olick, great to see you. silvana, back with those. >> i'm back. billionaire investor stan druckenmiller hopping on the bond market bandwagon amid fears about the state of the economy. speaking with the manager, he recently bought massive leverage positions in two-year notes and is keeping bearish wagers. be sure to catch druckenmiller on cnbc today at 7:00 a.m. eastern. shares of amd on a wild market ride, down a little over 2%. the chipmaker beating third quarter earnings estimates but offering a revenue forecast of $6.1 billion compared to the $3.6 billion expected. they're expecting to serve $2 billion worth next year saying

volume production for the third quarter is on track. and wework reportedly planning to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy as early as next week. "the wall street journal" says they're in an extended grace period with bondholders over missed interest payments. we work is far off its peak valuation over $47 billion, currently sitting just above $120 million, frank. >> interesting. just how that's just evolved and just -- i don't want to use bad words. >> right. >> it happened. >> that's a good way to put it. happened. >> silvana, sit tight. there's something i want to uc ta about. keep silvana's mic open. the fright fest for one theme park stock. but first -- we're not doing trending? we killed trending? i wanted to ask you. they had the cheesecake factory thing on trehe.

maybe some other time. we'll be right back. stay with us.

look. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it's time for your morning call street. we start with barclays, moving the u.s. auto sectors to positive. the firm says cheap is not usual a reason to buy, but at these valuations it is. bash class prefers gm over ford as they move past the uaw strike. goldman is downgrading zoom

and lowering its price target from $30 to $17. goldman says the move comes after the software and search engine maker showed mixed quarter results that shows a sign of rebound in tech hiring suggesting growth will be muted next year. jpmorgan with an underweight rating. it's seen lower visibility on attendance at the company's theme parks well into next year and bad weather weighing on current demand. jpmorgan estimating 1 million guests were lost due to we weather-related issues. we begin with china's manufacturing activity following contraction in october suggesting the economy still faces headwinds despite beijing's efforts to boost growth. the private case shilging

manager's index coming in following back to back expansion for the sector. more than doubled. the world's top automaker had strong sales including in the u.s. and in the home market of japan. shares closing up nearly 5% in tokyo. kamala harris will outline biden administration approach to intelligence at a speech today in london. she calls for koopg and stricter standards to protect consumers from the risk of ai. harris is also attending the su mitt in the uk tomorrow. we have the one word every investor needs to note. but first tomorrow we'll gather innovators and leaders from around the world on provocative information and shares tactics that are necessary for adapting and transforming in this new era

of business. you can scan the qr code on your meererr sirembst ovit cnbcevents.com/evolve. stay with us. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com with cirkul, your water is deliciously flavored at the turn of a dial, with zero sugar and zero calories. and cirkul has over 40 flavors, so your water can be as unique as you are. try cirkul. your water, your way. now with even more flavors. available at walmart or drinkcirkul.com. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform

safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive.

clinically shown to heal & moisturize dry, sensitive skin. gold bond. all right. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it's time now for your w.e.x. wrap-up. we start with the closing arguments of the criminal trial of former ftx ceo sam bankma bankman-fried. he paces a potential life sentence if convicted on fraud charges. and yum china citing losses due to pizza hut's brand. looking at companies building strong momentum in the u.s. as consumers benefit from more choice, flexibility, and va value. paycom losing a quarter of its value after offering weak revenue and eps guidance.

and shares of elf moving lower on an analyst of a potential sale slowdown against a potential maker drop. >> and shares lower due to an advising market slowdown though the company did beat on the top and bottom lines for its most recent quarter. those shares of the dating app company down more than 6%. here's what to watch. the adp employment report is out at 8:00 p.m. eastern time followed by the j.o.l.t.s. or job openings. we get earnings today from cvs, qualcomm and others and the fed wraps up its decision at 2:00 p.m. and a press conference with jay powell at 2:30. the fed makes its quarterly

announcement at 8:30 a.m. outlining how much the government will issue along with the size and dates of those auctions. that announcement and treasury auction is routine events, but they're kicking off much more importance as they offer insight into how the market manages its debt. it will auction $776 billion of debt in the fourth quarter, which was just slightly below expectations and then another $816 billion in the first quarter. let's talk more about this with mimi duff. great to have you here. >> thanks for having me. >> let's talk about that treasury auction. why is it so important this time around? can you explain it to the audience and how are you seeing it impact the equity market? >> yes. you started things for me in setting things up. back in august things came to root when the treasury didn't announced greater funding needs. in addition to that they

announced they were increasing the auction sizes from the 3eer, 10-year, and 30-year note. longer end securities, they're riskier in the bond world. we're going to have a repeat of that. the question we'll be looking for is are we going to see another increase in those auction numbers, or will the treasury take into can't that yields have backed up quite a bit and maybe they'll hold steady, but ultimately they need to fund that growing supply. >> is it the short end or do you want to look at longer? >> we're overweight. we haven't seen these yields in a very long time, and we're questions when we should term it. but we would like to get the picture on the supply side

first. >> i want to ask you about the bond market. cnbc.com, great article. we have a look at the duration of bonds right now compared to what they were prepandemic. so back in 2019, the duration was longer. its with ussen about 70 mondays. now it's 62 months. how does that shape the bond market and equity market especially with the announcement later today? >> that's -- that's quite a shortening of the overall amount of debt. i think it's important that -- to note that at higher yields the individual bond yields less risk. now's not the time to be underweight bond for sure. if you've been understood weight, now's a good time to square up. in terms of where you're positioning across the curve, we do like the front end. >> you don't do zbiks but you gave me areas in sectors that you're concerned about. i'm going to use concern as a light word. we got real estate news today.

right now how do you see the investability of rae? >> we're primarily woed about the commercial real estate side to be clear. that i don't have risk and asset options. we have 1.5 trillion debt occurring from now until the end of 2025. that's of concern. we just think it's going to be a longer term drag on the economy with these higher rates kind of slowing that segment of the economy. >> all right. so mostly your concern is when it comes to commercial rae. you're also worried about the consumer. how does that form your thought about different sectors? is there one sector you want to stay away from? >> savings have drawn don. consumers have been extremely strong. that's been the great surprise. but at this point, the savings have gone down. we have college loan. repayments have started.

so i think it's more of a factor. >> mimi duff, great to see you as always. thank you for watching "worldwide exchange." we've got "squawk box" coming up next. have a great day. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. (♪♪) our therapists give their all each day. and while we're in the business of taking care of others, it's important to make sure our therapists know that with benefits from principal, they're taken care of too. (♪♪)

good morning. futures are weak, marked in the red, ahead of the fed meeting. no action expected on the rates. the focus turning to chairman powell's news conference. a real estate ruling, a landmark decision that could shape up the way people purchase homes and commission fees. and drawing to a close. the trial of ftx founder sbf. it's about to come to a close. it's wednesday, november 1st,

2023, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the naz tack market site from times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it is decision day for the fed. the market's going to be paying very close attention to chairman powell's news conference later this afternoon. we'll have more ahead with steve liesman coming up in a few minutes. first we want to turn to the markets. we'll be hearing from the treasury. that's going go be interesting how they break it down, all of the borrowing they have for the end of the year. >> right