it could happen again the minute something happens on either side, it could happen again. >> this whole israel funding thing and then defunding the irs. >> i totally agree with that. >> you agree with that? >> absolutely. >> defunding the irs? >> definitely. >> are you -- >> take that totally useless money and give it where it can do some good. >> here you are saying we've got debt problems. >> yeah, that's going to help. everybody's cheating. "squawk on the street" is up right now. good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. futures trimmed some losses, yields back off as the treasury refunding announcement and adp come in a bit light. plenty of corporates lowering guidance, including dupont, estee lauder and others. our road map begins with fed and market watch. the central bank is expected to pause.

private payrolls come in light, stocks coming off their first three-month decline since 2020. adp delivers soft fourth quarter guidance. it expects to sell $2 billion worth of a.i. chips next year. we're going to check in on what's been a rough ride for tesla stock lately. it's the worst of the magnificent seven in terms of performance over the last quarter. shares look to be bouncing this morning as ceo elon musk ups his forecast for cybertruck production. let's begin, though, with the new month, talk about the markets on this fed decision day. jim, i wonder if you think the set-up is any better for november than it was for october. >> i do, if only just because this time, we know that things are going to be rough. if it's tech, what we hear is about there's optimization, which means that orders are slowing. if it's industrial, that means there's destocking, which means there's too much inventory. we're coming in with

expectations that those are the two things that are happening. and i like it when expectations are lowered. david, there's a piece this morning, maybe the most important piece i've read, morgan stanley figuring out fiscal policy, basically saying it's over, that the money coming from the federal government is over, money from the state is over. we are set up for dark times, and when you're set up for dark times and you get dark times, it's not revelatory. >> it's not. >> we're in a not revelatory portion of this market. >> right. >> so, when you get something that's not good, like dupont, it's good, because you expect it. ed breen -- speak to ed breen, probably the most seasoned ceo in the country, i believe, and it's like as bad as you thought but maybe there's green shoots. i like that. >> green shoots? we just had a 4.9% gdp number. >> well, he's -- >> unemployment is 3.8%.

what? >> well, china is big business. big business, china. there's green shoots in china. there was a piece about jd.com today that said, buy jd. that's an invitation to your funeral if you buy it, but at least there's someone being positive. i'm just saying, when people are really negative -- we're seeing those numbers. some of these guys put great stuff on twitter. it's harder to get -- i'm just a buyer of doupont. trust owns it. put me up on 25,000 dupont and take it to $71.50. >> you don't run a hedge fund anymore. >> but i had a nightmare last night that i was long a couple of stocks. >> this is not cramer berkowitz. >> it was krcramer for a really long time. i played the role. you never know. i could go back to that in a nanosecond. >> i'm sure you could, and i think sometimes you think you are. >> stride right, isn't that how you -- >> what happened is that -- i

said, i think stride right is going up here. you said, you want to see it go up? buy 25,000. and i didn't realize that what happens is supply and demand, david, means just go take and bid. and i think that we have a lot of stocks that you would take and bid simply because the worst is over. >> this week, i mean, you started off this week, it's only wednesday, being negative on monday, neutral on tuesday, and positive on wednesday. >> i wanted to see -- i wanted to see the treasury issuance, which showed me that there wasn't a lot of long data paper. that takes the pressure off that. i want to see the fed say what we know, which is that we have to stay longer, and i see the fed winning in autos, housing, jobs. >> i know you retreated liz ann saunders' bit about wage growth and information workers slowing bigtime. >> and if you talk to yum, they have no problem getting employees. chipotle has no problem. so, i think that with the fed

winning -- it's possible that you could say, like, carnival, that what you're having is a slowing of inflation, and the fed wants to see actual deflation. we're certainly headed that way. carl, i mean, i know my colleague, david, is absolutely right when it comes to the fact that there's this expansion, but he's not right in the fact that there's been this tremendous bear market underneath james coburn and robert vaughn. >> all those background players. we've made the point many times, but it bears repeating any number of times. you take out those seven, if you want to call it the seven that represent 30% or the nine that represent 35%, whatever it is, the s&p's market cap, as we say, the mega cap tech, there's nothing going on good. >> no. >> equal weighted s&p, we do go through this. i'm not sure what it really means in the s&p, by the way, that that large a percentage is really just eight stocks. >> yeah. so, what's happened is that the others, i'm saying, could conceivably be bottoming here.

the bear market portion of the market is kind of, wow. it's pretty ugly. and you have real people, real ceos like in ed breen, david, who have seen all sorts of cycles, and what they're saying is, look, we have had an electronics cycle, and it's really terrible, and it might be bottoming. we talk about amd and about how lisa su came out and said there's good a.i., but it's all the rest of it that is -- has been bad for a long time, and it's almost done being bad. >> may be turning a bit. there's a "journal" story today saying that overall chips, the demand for them, seems to be rebounding or at least getting us past the post-pandemic lows. >> exactly. and then there are other things. health care still. i still believe that amazon is deciding whether to wipe out walgreens and cvs, and while they're deciding, in the meantime, the other guys have decided to help them. >> yeah. ubs getting tactically long global semis. >> wasn't that interesting? >> we'll talk about that in a minute. jim and david mentioned amd, of course, beating by a couple

pennies. revenue ahead, guiding in line. stocks rebounding from its lows, of course, after those comments by lisa su on last night's call. >> we now expect datacenter gpu revenue to be approximately $400 million in the fourth quarter and exceed $2 billion in 2024 as revenue ramps throughout the year. this growth would make mi-300 the fastest product to ramp to a billion dollars in sales in amd history. >> all right, so, how do we judge it? >> well, look, the stock was down when that came out. immediately, the stock rallied $4.50. i think the most important line that she said was that there is room for more than one winner. there has been a sense that, obviously, that nvidia's winning. that $2 billion is not necessarily going to come out of nvidia's hide. it means that there's so much business, and this is even if there's a flow through back of the chinese cards that our government won't let for next

year. i thought the amd call was incredibly encouraging. it's in the bull pen for my travel trust, and i liked everything i heard about the high margin, exciting part a.i., even as i recognize the gaming was not good. that's not really a shocker. >> lot of chartists looking at nvidia yesterday. >> the worst chart in the book. >> this head and shoulders idea that there's a gap to $350. >> i have no problem saying that. i understand that i don't report to -- near the end of november, but david, i know that you and i often don't see eye to eye on the notion of charts, given the fact that you are seasoned and have rigor and i'm a fly-by-nighter. >> as you know, i spend a lot of time every night going through my charts. >> i do too. charts of what, though? not stocks, clearly. but i do think that a bad chart is what i call self-fulfilling. i've been tweeting this notion that if you have a bad chart, it's very easy to push it over,

and nvidia's chart is the worst chart in the book. i'm talking about, like, when they do, like, head and shoulders, they say, see nvidia. google ought to do that but google is so busy figuring out what happened to google cloud, they haven't been able to get their head out of that. >> it's hanging in there, exact a trillion dollar market value. obviously, t been higher than that. it wasn't that long ago that it passed that trillion dollar mark and had an incredible quarter. >> eventually, they do need china, just because china is such a great market. >> right. >> but you know, there's a lot of companies -- >> what is the -- to the ultimate buyer of chips that power generative a.i., in the datacenter, with amd, whatever it is they're coming out with, it's -- is it cheaper, even though it may not be quite as powerful? >> you're so good. okay, so, jensen huang will tell you, look, the payback is for sure, because it's so much cheaper, and it runs cooler, and that was actually a really

interesting debate between frank slootman -- frank slootman, i think, ambushed jensen at his conference. i liked it because there was actual tense. that was the most unscripted conference. jensen is saying, if you buy our cards, the payback is instant, and i don't know how quickly the payback will be with amd, but why i still like nvidia is that because it's a bargain. and their chips are a bargain. the chart's not a bargain, and there's a lot of people -- if you want to overlay two horrible charts, you overlay apple and nvidia. they're both horrible. and this is a market that's very chart-driven, but in the end, if you care about how companies are really doing, nvidia's a buy after they wreck it. >> that's interesting, because of the -- >> "they," being investors, the market? >> your enemy here is your fellow shareholders who don't know jack and are in there because they think the magnificent seven is a great movie and people who are short it and know that you can knock it over. amd was very interesting. the shorts were just in there.

you don't get a lot of people in there actually seriously selling stock at $525. it's people that want to so-called paint the tape. amd, she says something so counter to what everybody was thinking. let's go back to dupont. when ed breen explains what's not good, you say, okay. >> we knew that. >> thank you. >> we knew that. we knew that. that's what's happening right now. humana, we know that some utilization wasn't so good. i don't have that for cvs. i don't know the investing case for cvs, because the investing case for cvs was wrecked by shoplifting. >> doing okay in the premarket, i think. >> starting to come down a little bit. about four bucks. >> in the end, shoplifting destroyed so many retailers that it's hard to really make an investing case for a place where it's easier to buy on amazon, particularly when jassy spends so much money to make it so.

>> when you say shoplifting, it's really the response to it that makes it difficult for the average consumer to get what they want at cvs because everything's under lock and key. >> except for simon properties, where there's a line to get into the expensive stores because they only let one person in and let one person out. it becomes very exclusive. it's like a club to shop at a simon properties. i don't have the money to shop at simon property stores. i don't. >> well, gold man's point, addig it to conviction buy along with boeing is that consumers are looking for something interesting to shop, some place that's interesting to buy stuff. >> when i go to the simon properties that's near me, i feel very poor when i cawalk in macy's and gap. >> they are typically the higher end. >> not the higher end. the highest end. billionaire's row. simon promotes. except for when they own the jcpenney, but why not own a

store if it's free? what's the rent on jcpenney? isn't it amazing they're alive? >> on amazon, thursday night football, right? >> i got to tell you, amgz is the winner here. go listen to brian, the cfo. you know, they're the antidote to -- help in aisle 5, i need some gillette shaving cream, and you're waiting, and it's like, why am i waiting? i have a subscription that just comes to the house. that's what you do. >> yes, i know. when we come back, tesla shares, well short of magnificent in october. we'll talk about what elon musk is saying about the cybertruck, his comments to joe rogan about mark zuckerberg and threads. take a look at the premarket here. so many consumer-facing names to get to, including yum, brinker, caesar's, splunk, wayfair, estee lauder, match, and paycom when we return.

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>> all right, so, you had another forecast on this new product. >> there's a "wow" from a man who is obviously uber excited. however, i was looking for 250,000, because, remember, on wall street, we have expect -- what? >> you were? you had a cybertruck number? >> yeah, because you see, i follow the f-150 really closely because it's been horrible. >> so you wouldn't have given him a wow? >> no. it's a shortfall. the f-150 e is bad enough. >> you would have gone, ugh. >> yeah. >> okay. just making sure i understand. >> it's not a twitter. i mean, x. >> would you have taken elon out back to shoot arrows at the cybertruck? >> no, and i question whether -- is it really a truck? the people who buy this stuff are -- they're like collectors. you know what this looks like to me? the delorean. >> it does have that kind of feel to it. >> doesn't it? the delorean. >> he has -- he has said many times how difficult it has been

to actually manufacture at scale of this truck. >> right. >> given the design specifications. he said that -- i mean, it's an entirely new process, apparently, and it has taken a lot longer than they had anticipated or at least than musk had originally promised. >> well, i mean, look, the f-150 is the best-selling vehicle. this is not going to compete against the f-150. >> what is it going to compete against, do you think? >> i think it's a whole new category, which i have to give him credit for. i mean, this is the beginning of -- you know, we have cars and trucks, and then we got this. that's not bad. that's not bad, to come in, have something new. we haven't had anything new in cars and trucks since, what, since, i don't know, the super duty? it's very exciting. it's just that, you know, there are people on wall street who are looking for 250,000. >> right. >> and i just think that what matters is that he's got something novel, and i think there will be people who want to have novel. same way people want rivian. people want fisker. >> you think it's in the rivian

school? >> yeah, i do. i do. i think that it is going to be something that people say, you know what? not a car, not a truck, something new, i want it. so, therefore, i'm actually quite optimistic. just that, please, do not -- i wish he had done more. i wanted to see big rollout. i know it's hard, but do not compare this to anything. >> meantime, musk and rogan got into the competitive threat that threads is supposedly placing to x. >> it's eerily quiet. >> it's wild. >> zuck himself doesn't post. >> that's what's crazy. >> you got to use your own product. >> well -- >> i think he called it a ghost town, threads. >> there was two lines in the conference call by zuckerberg saying what a success it is, but i think that, look, game, set, match on that. i would prefer that the ad business that zuckerberg has to his ad business. >> oh, yeah. you can't really compare the two in terms of the size. it's not even -- >> no.

his is completely scatalogical and zuckerberg is almost familial. the brady bunch is pinterest. this is "bonanza." maybe it's because -- i love matthew perry. but i think instagram is like "friends." >> instagram is like "friends"? >> yeah. >> i'm just trying to follow along. >> and x is like "the wire"? >> x is like "the shield." >> great michael chiklis. >> it's worth $19 billion. that's what i know. >> i didn't make mention of "the morning show." >> there's a lot of banks out there with a lot of debt. >> paul also slammed meta's thread. >> we'll talk more about autos

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your policy. let's get to a "mad dash" with jim. he wants to talk yum. >> i want to talk about how hard this market really is. you have a company that had extraordinary numbers for kfc, extraordinary. the taco bell division is on fire, david. i would suggest the breakfast taco. you won't believe, especially after a hard night out, which i know you don't have, but pizza hut did not do well. you have two growth engines, kfc and taco bell. people are all focused on pizza hut. what matters here is the numbers, the same store sales

are very good, but it was made through traffic, not just through price increase. so, this stock can go down. you can say it. remember, yum china, thrown off, and just watch it go down, or you can say, all right, this company actually did better, and i'm willing to start thinking that maybe it's time to buy. this is the big dilemma. >> this doesn't look good. >> well, i know the chart -- >> the chart looks horrible. >> the chart is bad. you're right. >> every chart looks bad. >> i know. don't forget, nvidia and apple have the worst charts. >> worst charts. >> i'm just saying this is the dilemma of the market. why focus on the one division that's still up 7%? why not focus on kfc and taco bell? the answer is because it's not that kind of market. we're only focusing on things that are bad, and i think that ends at a certain point. >> will you let us know when that point is? >> that's what i'm all about, but it's not yet. >> oh, it's not yet? >> but it's soon, though.

>> is it here? is it here? >> you're going to realize, wait a second, i keep selling, and yet it's not as bad as i thought. when it's down like 15%, you take a shot. david, i love you. >> i love you too, jim. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. we've got an opening bell five minutes from now. listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast. we're back after this. have you met them yet? [ gasp ] [ screams ]

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. in some ways, being right on the bond market, which i was, and being right on earnings, which i was, made me completely wrong on the stock market, and i was completely wrong, because if you had told me, and it happened, that rates were going to be where they are now, january 1st, and earnings would be flat, and you told me the s&p was up, what is it, 12% or 13%, i mean, that's just -- that's not part of my process. >> that's druckenmiller on

"squawk" earlier this morning talking about his criticisms of janet yellen but also saying that bonds steam have adjusted to a post-qe world, but equities have not. >> i think his comments about how it's going to be very narrow stock picking are really right. i liked his humility. one of the things, i remember, david and i were doing, we were doing delivering alpha conference, and he was talking about certain rates that were going to happen, and they didn't. and what was great was that his thinking process was so brilliant, but the outcome was different, and that -- i would just call attention to the fact that, do you remember when we had an inverted yield curve and we were supposed to have a recession and we just had 4.9% gdp at the end of the yield curve. so a lot of presumptions and assumptions, even from the wealthiest people who have been good, did not come true when it came to actually trying to make money, so i thought that was a -- he humiliated himself. >> it's an uncommon practice.

it's interesting and difficult. >> i mean, a big part of it is about the spending that he is criticizing on the federal government. >> i know, look. he said, they should have borrowed, and they didn't. but -- stanley is a guy who is going to come on air and say, i was wrong. he could have said, look, i was right about treasury, but instead, he offered a contrary view, which is, hey, i got everything right, expect i didn't make you money, and i like that. >> let's get the opening bell here. at the big board, it's freight transportation company rxo, first listing anniversary. drew wilkinson will join us in the third hour of "squawk on the street." at the nasdaq, recent ipo syra health focused on behavioral and mental health as we're back above 4,200. >> i know, and i think that this

is in part because the treasury issuance was really weighing on us. we still had the fed. i think the fed is going to come in while people think. i think the market is very oversold. i love this idea of adjusting. we're adjusting to the new world of, look, if you have a company that does really well on two out of three, stop selling it. it's like ridiculous. just stop. just stop. >> it's a reference to yum as well, i guess? >> well, i think yum is very -- >> two, three, but, well, if you got to hit on all three, jim. >> once i wanted to get -- i don't know if you're in the franchise business. >> no. >> i wanted to get a wing stop because they make a huge amount of money, and, by the way, nice chart there. at one point, this thing was up 16 points, but the restaurant business is a business that involves franchising, and what's incredible is that yum, there's been no problem getting finance for these people, mostly because it's publicly traded companies that are actually buying them. so, you look at yum, and what

you say is, oh my god, the chart tells me i'm wrong. i'm saying that that period is coming to a conclusion. the chart tells me i'm wrong is beginning to be a way that you won't make money, witness the fact that yum was down three when i did the stock trading and now it's up four from that. >> yum china, not enjoying the same thing. >> what's funny, almost everybody said, i want china, i don't want the rest of the world. so, yum gave you china. i want the rest of the world. and i think that yum shows you -- look, i'm not telling you buy it up, but i think that the companies that don't -- if you look at dupont, the only really weak area was china. >> yeah. >> china is awful. >> it fits right in with what e.l. is saying about the china slowdown. they guide below despite the surprise profit. >> fabrizio is one of the greatest of our time, but offensive i've

owned it for years and -- >> jim, you should have sold this thing. i mean, come on. >> david, there's some people -- >> you don't want to give up on it. now look at it. this is after numerous bad earnings. >> i did a bad job on this. i believed in fabrizio and i was wrong. >> you can believe in him. by the way, he delivered an enormous amount of shareholder value for a long time, but there clearly was a turn here. was it just china, basically? was that really what it was? >> there was a hack. he made a big bet. >> cites israel as well. >> i mean, this is just a job-like stock. you're incredibly correct about my belief that one day, fabrizio would turn it around, because he a always has. he didn't. he did have the best reputation. >> you're in it for a long period of time during many quarters, but it's been a while now. >> no, no, don't -- david, you're right. there are these people, i'll go with mr. iger, when it comes to disney, that this -- obviously,

it's much worse than disney, and i hate to compare them in the same sentence, but there have been ceos whose stocks i have owned for a long time, and i should have cut my losses, and i didn't, and that's one of the lessons of playing with an open hand, and it's quite hard. >> finding that right time to sell. >> i'm telling people, don't buy, don't buy, but i'm not going to give up on fabrizio. so far, the don't buy call was good and don't give up on fabrizio was quite bad. >> on a two-year basis, it's not as bad as canada goose, which also today cites china. >> that's something that i got right. >> was estee lauder guidance as much as it was the reported quarter? >> the quarter was in line. fabrizio said last quarter that this is not going to be the turning quarter. what you didn't expect it was going to be like a clorox-like quarter where they had a cyber hack and they've gotten it wrong. is fabrizio washed up?

maybe he's mariano rivera still playing. i don't want to say it's difficult to make a big pivot out of macy's and china and everything that could go wrong in china has. i don't want to make a judgment that he's over. i will make the judgment that i misjudged -- >> is there a plan here, jim? there's been rumors of activist investors. >> i'm wiped out if they're in there. i don't want to be in a situation where there's a call going on, and i say there's a plan or not. i do think that i got it very wrong, that i misjudged and had too much faith, and that happens. and i think that one of the reasons investing is humbling, whether it be with stan talking, this man has made so much money for people that i had to believe that he could turn it around, and he failed. >> estee lauder shares, losing

another 18% of their value today. >> my job. i mean, look, there are other situations like a trane, where did them on and i liked them and it was hvac, and it's terrific, and i should have gone with them and not cosmetics. >> should have gone with the hvac. >> i don't know what to do. all i could do was tell people, don't buy it, i've made a mistake, which i did over and over again, and then show why i made the mistake. i did know this was going to be a bad quarter. did i know it would be this bad? i think that this was a quarter -- i said it's job-like. and job ends up okay, kind of, but i don't. >> well, it does have a profit recovery plan. >> so do i. >> it has its profit recovery plan. >> real estate. >> yeah. it's going to progressively rebuild its profit margins in fiscal year years '25 and '26, anticipated to be substantially in place by the beginning of

next year. >> i think this was supposed to be the bridge quarter, and it was a bridge too far. it was that gene hackman polish general. >> yeah. >> remember in the movie? >> uh-huh. >> but look, i -- i'm going to say it now, it will be six times, that i got it wrong. one of the things that's very humbling about running this travel trust is that there are a lot of people on estee lauder, you'll never know who they are, but i am one. i've known mr. fredo for many years, he's always gotten us out of a jam, and he didn't. i did hope that he would say the things would get better. he did, but not in time to save it. so, there. >> speaking of getting out of jams, how about wayfair's ability to reverse these premarket losses? despite the -- >> rabbit out of a hat. >> -- narrower-than-expected loss, revenue was shy. >> one of the things they've done is if you buy a place, it's go-to. it's just still go-to. my wife does real estate.

happy birthday to my wife. >> that's right. >> oh, yeah. was it yesterday or today? >> today. you buy a place, and you stock it with wayfair and then you went it out. happy birthday, lisa. >> absolutely. >> happy birthday, lisa. >> she uses mac. that's why i got it wrong. >> estee lauder -- >> i got it wrong because of lisa. >> blame your wife. >> always, always. that solves a lot of problems when you blame your wife. just makes things great. i did that once -- never mind. >> we did talk to the d.a. davidson analyst who upped ulta yesterday, although ulta is down on some of these beauty declines. >> i like ulta. remember, ulta is -- he's very good, the ceo. i would not count them out, because they -- that's a bargain place and stock is down a huge amount. it's a good company. that's another example, down 20%. that company will turn around. david, you know what i did? my wry post to him on estee

lauder? i didn't have paycom. you said it would be safe in paycom. >> nice. >> who said we'd be safe? you said we would be safe in philadelphia. >> you have no answer, apparently, david. >> in philadelphia? >> she says it to harrison ford. he says, i was wrong. that's paycom. >> all right, guys. i'm going to do a quick hit here on -- >> on estee laud er? get my hair suit. >> on something we have covered for a long time which is netflix. i was involves our parent company, comcast, and disney. it's something we have talked act for some time. today's the day, though, and expect to see comcast exercise its put option today after the close. most likely get an 8 k from disney. what does this all mean? fully expected given the date in

question is november 1. it means that disney is in the next to30 days going to pay the minimum payment or the floor payment to comcast based on a valuation of $27.5 billion. now, you might say, well, that's roughly $9.1 billion up 33%, but there have been capital calls over the last five years for which comcast has not stepped up to, and so it's payment that it receives from disney is going to be reduced by what it didn't contribute in capital over these last five years. it's a rough estimate. let's call it $600 million or $700 million, assume roughly speaking, disney is going to be cutting a check to comcast for $8.5 billion. that will be in the next month. there's going to be taxes involved there, so the ultimate proceeds to cameromcast are not going to be $8.5 billion, but it's going to be nice for our parent company, and disney reporting earnings next week is expected to detail the power of its balance sheet and its

ability to handle this. then, the question becomes, what more? remember, there is a difference in perspective here on value as you might anticipate. and as we explained a number of times, there are things that are unique to this particular situation in terms of the way the value is going to be assessed. it's got to be something that maximizes equity value, meaning that anybody who wanted to buy hulu is expected to participate in some auction. that's not the case, of course. nor is the case that programming will be in perpetuity provided by disney or comcast, but that apparently is the case for how the banks that are going to decide the valuation have to take it into what they need to take into account. morgan stanley is working for, i believe, comcast. jpmorgan, for disney. they're going to come up with two values. if those two values are within 10% of each other, they take the average of them. if, in fact, they are disparate or beyond 10%, then you go to a

third investment bank, mutually agreed to by both comcast and disney, that looks at the work from both these banks, doesn't do its own work, but looks at the work from both of them, and then makes its own decision on value. and so, it's going to take months. it's not going to be until well into 2024, given, you got a lot of work that you got to get to here. data requests. hulu executives, teams have to be met with. a lot of experts have to be consulted, but ultimately, if you don't get the two investment banks within 10%, you need to go to the third, you are going to get a value there, and then it will be that value and whatever the second value is closest to it that you will average. so, let's say you're 30 and 50 for the two banks that have been employed, and then your third bank comes in at 41. then it will be 41 and 50 that are averaged. if they come in at 39, it will appro be 39 and 30 averaged and

whatever that is, minus the money that's already been paid, is what comcast will get. it's all amicable. one question becomes disney's balance sheet, but they have the capacity to handle it. >> they do. david, when i was on the amazon call and on the alphabet call, and when we'll be on the apple call, they all want to be very big into what is the best programming in the world, which is either entertainment or tv but new. they want scale. they want to move up in -- youtube wants to moveup. amazon wants to move up. they had great success with the nfl. are any of those going to be into consideration of who might buy hulu, which would then therefore create a higher ceiling? >> no. >> no? >> in a valuation process, you do have to consider -- i don't know how exactly they do that, though. what would apple pay? but you have to say, what if it were for sale in an auction scenario, essentially, under which you would have all of these companies participating?

i guess i shouldn't say no, jim. >> but maybe ruth, they would say, give us the scale. >> you're going to have, listen, comcast thinks it could be worth as much as 50. disney is going to be closer to the 27.5 that they already have as a floor valuation. >> very interesting. >> we'll see where it ends up. in talking to many people around this, just a quick update as well on the actors' strike. others have been reporting on this, but it does appear they're getting very close. and that certainly seems to be the hope on the studio side, given they seem to feel as though they've made what is their -- you don't want to call it best and final, but they've all been locked in rooms for, like, six hours a day, seven hours a day. you can't keep having the likes of iger and zaslav and other people in room for that long. the feeling is they got to get somewhere soon or else they're not going to revisit this for a while. >> i wish you had touched on the revaluation potential of espn with possibility of strategic

investors or is that just a false hope? >> i think espn strategic investors is something that's very much alive. >> b of a today talks about, it's a premere asset, but subs are higher. the benefit to any prospective buyer appears nebulous in jessica's view. >> i don't know. >> yeah, i don't know. i don't know. i've heard lots of different names. i'm not going to share them because i haven't been able to confirm -- it's hard to know, given the process, where it stands or what they'll end up with in terms of an actual investment and a partner that will add value to espn, but the plan at this point is not to sell it anyway in its entirety. by the way, back to the strike, guys, they seem to very much expect they're going to take care of all the a.i.-related issues, they hope, today. the economics, they believe, have largely been dealt with, but there's always other things, so you just don't know. the latest they could go, i'm

told, is next week. >> and basketball is the one that's up for grabs, as we know. >> yes, basketball. >> basketball is the one that's going to set the ceiling, i think, that -- i loved her work, but i think that when you look at the cost of nba, it is a round for apple. they wanted to be in global football, which is soccer, and they're in basketball, then you have the greatest demo that you could possibly have. >> we're getting some pmis, as you can see. let's get a rundown from that from rick santelli. hey, rick. >> yes, s&p global manufacturing pmi, this is an october final read, and it hasn't changed. the mid-month read was 50. it continues to be at 50, and that broke a string of one, two, three, four, five in a row that were under 50, so that's a positive. we see rates moving a little bit lower here. i don't see the sense of why 50 once again, as i said, remaining

from mid month to final is going to have that much of an effect, so there may be some internal aspects that are moving the market. we want to pay particularly close attention, because not only do we have jolts coming up, we have more manufacturing isms coming up from pmis coming from ism, all that will be at the top of the hour. we see that interest rates are down more in the long maturities. that's from the refunding announcement, which made subtle tweaks on the supply and which tenners, meaning, which maturities are going to get more, which are going to get less. most likely, the effect is going to be temporary, maybe meaning less than a session, because ultimately, the big driving force continues to be the total amount of debt. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break.

spend about $4.5 million dealing with those breaches, but companies that have prepared can save up to 60% of that. >> dante, thank you so much for sharing your expertise. >> thanks for having me.

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time for jim and stop trading. >> mini mentioned earlier the tn technologies and hvac had an amazing quarter. but probably the best quarter for the industrials is e eaton, they've done a tremendous number

of things, they've become the company that best understands how to make the transition, how to get your company to make the transition. at one point they were making different basic parts for airplanes and metal blending, this is a very good turn. but to work on the light industrials have been able to figure it out. still steadfast on the idea that caterpillar is a terrific story for next year. a bridge too far at this moment. >> the debate about the back log got play. >> i have no problem recommending that. a difference from estee lauder where there was a fundamental mistake by the ceo. >> are you on board with the boeing conviction buy? >> yes. i like simon properties too. i did a piece about the trends of the quarter what i hear from ge, boeing, and archie x is really terrific. one of the reasons why honeywell

stocks stopped going down they have amazing airspace. so there are still trends that are good and there's a lot of bad out there, but i don't want to lose sight of the fact that once we get through the treasury assistance we have and through powell, then we get something that shows the employment number is not red hot and you wish you bought stocks so we have a week that is crazy. but we need to see what happens with the treasury. that's the most important number at all. humana down 20 at one point now 8. these are companies bringing revalue on the fly as we look at the federal funding which turns out to be the most important thing that happened. it was the funding. incredible, isn't it? ? >> we talked about it. we got that on monday you're saying. >> when we got the treasury -- >> refunding announcement today. >> of course it would have been better had they done 50 year, 130, i get some right, some

wrong. focus what i did wrong, when you're right you're lucky and when you're wrong you own it. tonight, brinker, i want to know how much of their stuff is increases in price. they've gone upscale. kevin hochman recognized premiumization. tonight is the constellation brands meeting. there's a lot -- this is a very exciting moment. >> great margins at brinker, that's for sure. >> yeah. i hate to say i like it after i made some big mistakes but i made some things that were right too. >> see you at 6:00, "mad money". we'll see at t fwhheed says in a few hours, don't go away.

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a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. good wednesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. look at stocks moving higher here, ahead of the fed decision this afternoon. we have about a 56 point rally on the dow.

s&p up a third of one percent. most sectors are higher, technology leading the way. pressure on the defensive groups like utilities, staples, e utilities and health care. treasuries front and center after the refunding announcement we got this morning, it led to a rally with yieldsly low e acro the board. the 30 year add below 5%. estee lauder, canada goose all in the red. estee lauder shares hitting the lowest levels since 2017. p paycom plummeting. now the biggest laggard on the s&p 500 by far this morning. on the flip side check out shares of generac, soaring

double digits right now. sales slipped but margins improved. it's the best performing stock in the s&p this morning. getting isms and jolts. let's get to rick santelli. rick? >> yes, and watch markets they give you good clues. see rates going down. construction spending, it was up .4, exactly as expected, although that is the weakest level since april. job openings and labor turnover. 9,533,000. better than expected, however last month a big revision from 9,61 9,610,000 to under 9,500,000. which means the strongest number since may, in line with last month but the downgrade was so large that's where the comp moves further back. here's where the weakness appears to be showing up. the isms. look at 46.7 on the manufacturing.

46.7 is the weakest since july and it is now the 12th sub-50 in a row. if you look at prices paid, expected to be 45. comes in the at 45.1. 45.1 actually is the highest -- well, only since august when it's 48.4. six in had a row under 50, but in this case, in this case that's a good thing. we want it to be under 50. we want prices paid to moderate if you're looking for inflation, metrics to ease back. on the employment front considering we had adp friday we get the jobs report. 46.8. well below the 50 and change expected. 46.8 actually is the weakest number going back to july when it was 44.4. and this represents, of course, a fallback under 50 last month was 51.2. and finally, on the new orders front, expecting a number just under 50 it is well under 50.

45.5. 45.5 and that is the weakest going back to june. so there's where your impetus is for some of the buying and treasuries on the last ism manufacturing price to play deployment and new orders and we want to pay close attention to the 479, 480 that has defined the lower end of the range since the 23rd of october we had the intraday violation of 5%. sara back to you. >> we'll watch the levels thank you rick santelli for crunching that data for us. better job openings weaker manufa manufacturing, the dollar resumes post data. we had adp earlier this morning the private sector jobs report with a weaker than expected headline number though everybody writes it off as far as a predictor for the government jobs report on friday. one part i pulled apart, they

break down how much you get paid if you're a job switcher or stayer, those are the two lines there. those numbers are coming down. we're looking for any proxies on wage growth. workers who stayed in their jobs saw 5.7 median pay increase. those who changed jobs wages rose 8.4%. also the slowest pace since 2021. so progress there i would say on the wage front looking for anything from adp the fed can take out of today's awe announcement. >> hard after last month when they gave us a low number. >> 300,000 was the nfp. we don't take anything from it. we have that. that was an event. we also have the refunding announcement as rick santelli mentioned which led to a rally especially in the long end. i don't think the mystery was a number because we got that on monday for how much the treasury was going to borrow this quarter

and less than previously expected. but it was the skew where they would borrow and especially on the 10 and 30 year to see that not as heavily weighted there was a relief i think for the markets or a sign the treasury is worried about the rise in treasury yields when they push the two years in the bills, which is what we saw. >> for this week we were waiting for the financing number and it seems the coast is clear? what can we say? >> coast is not clear until after the fed decision today and after the press conference. >> is the coast ever clear? >> it's never clear. a big week and people thought there would be drama in the funding announcements so bond markets rallied. >> once we focused on it we should have known. >> it was too much. >> yes. >> for the fed today it's not as dramatic as other fed meetings we've gone into because there's virtually no chance they raise

interest rates and we heard from powell before the blackout period before they stop talking he was balanced and measured in the idea they could do more because inflation was higher than target but also watching the longer term yields and that's the swing factor today. what he says, i'm sure he's going to get a ton of questions on the move in yields, the backup in long term rates. here's a chart about what's happened this year with the 10 and 30 year bond yields and how much they've risen and why that affects consumers. this is the move. moved up through the 2022, which is when we got the bulk of the interest rate hikes and continued to move up, basically, through now. we're not too far from the highs. we've reached the 5% level on the ten year not too long ago. so how much do they think that is going to curtail the economy, do their work for them, act as an interest rate hike whether it it's 25 or 50% basis points.

mortgage rates at 8%, this starts to take a bite. what's the lag and impact? they don't know. but we'll be interested to see how they talk about it today. the more they talk about that, the more dovish it is. the more the markets are convinced they're done hiking. >> there's the market that says the eco data and the corporate commentary. i know you've pulled from estee lauder, canada goose, and yum china. >> part of that story has to do with china. estee lauder we return to growth in the u.s., that was good news, with fragrance, makeup and skin care contributing. the performance partially offset the pressures of asia, travel retail and a slower recovery of overall beauty in mainland china. china is the culprit the yum china cfo on the call. consumers have become more

value-conscious. that's china. canada goose also. and canada goose is more global. they mentioned geopolitics. our outlook has come under pressure due to the increasingly challenging global economic and geopolitical environments that have impacted decision making and prioritization of spend. we saw early moment in our second quarter fiscal 2024 begin to slow noticeably. >> although china is important for them. >> absolutely. they also make very expensive coats. the flood of q3 earnings continues. almost 80% now of companies are beating expectations. it looks like q4 earnings are coming down. bob pisani is watching that. >> it's not q3 it's q4, the outlook. as sara was talking about i'm hearing more cautious comments. let me show you numbers. dupont came out, cut their full year sales guidance, ongoing volume head winds.

humana a nice beat but affirmed their guidance, no raise on the guidance, same with cvs, also affirmed their full year outlook, an 8% beat, no raise there. that's cautious. and been talking about estee lauder for a while. look where we are right now. almost 300 companies into the s&p 500 for the third quarter, here's what the fourth quarter, this is what matters. we were up 11% for the fourth quarter on october 1st, today up 8.2%. 60% of the companies have had estimate cuts that have reported the average cut is 2.2%. you get lower as you go into the first month of the quarter but it's usually 1%, this is twice the normal and 60% is a high number to have estimates cut. look at some sectors here. i see 60 companies in the s&p, 10% or more cuts.

look at the airlines, american, norwegian, alaska. the cuts are enormous. typically companies you see 3, 5%, these are high. norwegian was 16 as the israel/hamas war started. the market sniffed out the problems they were having. norw norwegian's numbers were worse than the expeck takes that were already being lowered when it came out today. the market sniffed it out. you can go to other sectors, look at the autos, they had their estimates cut dramatically, since october 1st here. and the same situation here, look at general motors going from 31 to 27 when we started sniffing this out. so guys, we talk about can efficient market. is the market efficient, it's not perfectly efficient but it smelled quickly there was an earnings problem here and

quickly started adjusting prices on this. even before the analysts started moving. the analysts only started moving one, two weeks ago but those stocks were dropping. i'm in the camp the markets are not efficient but they're good at sniffing things out before the analysts even started to do things. >> i know you like to focus on the industrials, for example. i don't know if -- eaton shares are having a nice morning. curious your thoughts. >> they 'been almost an a.i. play because it's involved in industrial automation, power, management supply, that can be managed using a.i. and they're involved in that. this is an a.i. overlay to it. and it's been there for most of the year. that's very interesting. that's one of the big plays out there. i love eaton because they're one of those companies that help manage all the stuff behind the walls. you know, all -- you know, flow

systems and heating and ventilation, air conditioning. anything involved in managing the buildings around the world. they're involved in, and they have a good sense of that right now. >> bob, it's also a big day for another reason here, i don't know if our viewers know, but i want to welcome you to the 30 year club at cnbc. >> thank you very much. >> speaking of love we have nothing but love for you as you do for eaton apparently. i know you've been here clolong than 30 years. you were the real estate reporter when i walked in 30 years ago. there you are on the street. >> that's brown hair, yeah. the days i had brown here. a lot of us were here for several years before we became official staff. we were full-time people working here b before we became official staff.

it's been 33 years. you're right. nbc has a beautiful policy of inviting people to 30 rock and out to dinner for anyone around 25 years or more, you've been here 30, i've been here more than 30. so we had a nice get together a few days ago and you meet all the management here. also can you see the different styles of clothing here. >> that's some old school arman k i there. >> this is mono chromatic and it was greens and browns. >> double breasted. >> in the early 1990s. if you look at it long enough you can see the evolution. striped shirts became big. this is the late 90s. >> when did pocket squares enter the picture? >> i've always done them. it came in and out. a couple of those ties are great. a couple look like someone threw a pizza at me. but really bright ties were big until the dot com bust that's

when things turned around. >> and you got out of real estate and into markets. i cannot imagine my 30 years how much they would have diminished had you not been my colleague. >> that's so nice. >> thank you, david. >> you make every day better by being here. >> i elected to the stay with the company because cnbc is a congenial place to work, a great company, great management, on the floor of the new york stock change, you meet the most interesting people in the world and you don't have to do anything. they're ringing the bell, you say hello to them. my colleagues, second to none, the smartest people in the room. that's why i stay because every day you learn something. >> when we get visitors to the stock exchange, bob is the tour guide. your mother was here. >> took my mom on a great tour. >> anyone we bring in and he talks to all of them and shows them the history of this place.

and the exchange feels that way about you too. >> i know where the urn is the clock is, the board room. it's a great institution. we're all lucky to be part of -- we're lucky to be part of cnbc. >> we're lucky to be with you. congrats on 33 years, 30 years officially. >> who's counting at this point. >> you never looked bet every. >> thank you. let's get back to moves in in the market this morning. amd shares swinging positive after an initial fall last night. the guidance didn't look good. let's get to kristina partsinevelos to find out what changed things here. >> enough toget investors excited. like you pointed out, david, the stock fell when earnings came out but completely reversed course and is positive when they expect gpu revenue to exceed $2 billion in 2024. that was the key there.

2 billion. and that number is higher than most street estimates. she went on to say this, quote, growth would make the mi 300, the a.i. chip, the fasters product to ramp to $1 billion in sales in amd history. strong words there. citing significant progress with customers. analysts do like amd but many this morning, truist, barclays, goldman sachs, all on your screen and more, lowering the price targets and estimates because the data center and pc sales are expected to grow they're offset by lower demand in gaming and embedded businesses in q4 and embedded isn't expect today rebound until the second half of next year. weakness was a problem for intel we heard that and hlattice, dow 39% in one month. qualcomm, the earnings are out today, extending an agreement with apple which is good but already factored in.

investors want updates on the i fe iphone 15. but like amd expect qualcomm to hype up the a.i. product offerings for the edge, smart phones, pcs, local computers but that revenue pipeline is still several months out but maybe enough to reverse to the upside. >> quite a reversal. stocks up now almost 5%. thank you. we continue to monitor the israel/hamas war now in its 26 day of conflict. let's get to jay gray live for us in tel aviv with the latest. jay? >> reporter: look, after weeks of negotiations we're finally seeing some movement out of gaza along the rafah border crossing today. 70 to 80 ambulances rolling in some of the most critically injured people in gaza taken out to a field hospital just across the border where they'll get

surgery they desperately need. this is something that qatari intermediaries have been talking over with the representatives of hamas, israel and egypt and today we're seeing movement. also seeing some of the foreign nationals standing there with famili families for weeks, camping there waiting for a chance to get out of gaza, seeing some of them moving out as well. americans will be among those leaving we pekts the process to continue tomorrow. they're met outside the gates by representatives of their countries and that's how they move forward and out of the region. so very interesting to see that playing out now after it's been discussed, again, f or weeks they're finally showing movementment. movement on the battlefield. we know that the israeli defense forces are not only expanding but advancing. they're moving further into gaza at this point. the way it's described by idf commanders they are working as

joint combat teams. you have the troops on the ground moving in many increments and getting assistance from the air, as well as just off the coast by the israeli navy. more than 300 targets we are told were hit overnight into the day today. and we know that at least according to the idf, one of the architects of the october 7th attack was apparently killed during those strikes. now hamas is disputing that. the idf saying they got one of the leaders, hamas said that's not the case. we also know that the idf has acknowledged hitting one of the largest refugee encampments in gaza, dozens killed there and that's something that the world continues to watch unfold and to learn how and why this refugee camp was caught up in the air strikes from the idf. we have also been told that the idf is reporting its first loss

of soldiers on the ground. and it's at least 11 soldiers between the ages of 19 and 24. and sharing his condolences with the families today, israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu saying, and i'm quoting here, they have fallen in the most just of wars, the war for our home. >> no update jay on the hostages at this point? >> reporter: we have not heard anything other than negotiations continue, but they are very parsed and very tense, because of the continuing advancement of idf troops. >> jay gray in tel aviv thank you very much. as we head to break, here's our road map for the rest of the hour, markets kicking off november in the green. more on how to position your portfolio from here. shares of cesars entertainment are up on what seems to be strong consumer demand. what that may signal about the

other gaming stocks. and one analyst who said he's not worried about swilong demand, the stocks he says are a buy right now as "squawk on the street" continues. and deliver solutions that meet complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." first trading day of november is under way. usually the best month for stocks. how should investors position to year end joining us this morning is joyce chang. always a pleasure to see you. thanks for the time this morning. >> great to be with you. >> one thing i want to get you

on is sort of the disconnect some believe in the macro data versus the micro commentary, that's filling in this nicely as we work our way through earnings season. what do you make of that? >> we continue to see strong government spending here. if you look at the last quarter, which exceeded expectations you had a 4.6% increase in government spending so this is disconnect now on the macro numbers, the third quarter macro data that was strong but the mike micro, looking at the auto and credit card. trending at 30 year highs. new car prices have risen by 30%. looking at the cost of living going up for lower income right now. and the last survey we did, 44% of consumers in the u.s. and europe said they were going to decrease their discretionary

spending. >> that's been born out in other commentary this week. which i argue has been on the dark side. we talk to marco about the peak impact of these rate hikes still to come and what it means for corporate demand, pricing, the consumer, does that mean equities have tough roads? >> we do think we're not in the soft lit narrative of j.p. morgan we think recession is a risk here and the longer you see central banks remaining on hold while signaling they're buys to hike. we remain over here and we think that energy is going to do well here because of the heightened geopolitical risk but we're recommending sort of the utilities looking at staples. i think the key risk we're seeing is the high yields are longer and we don't know what this means over the longer term.

we had a real yield target of 2.5% that we did not think we would hit this year. there's a risk of overshooting and under appreciated risk here. i don't think there's enough attention paid to tightening. >> what about the geopolitical risk and enough attention paid on this? it feels like a tough one to get your arms around not whether it's bullish or bearish but the imple pli indications it could have on other countries, the fiscal implications on governments, what that means for bonds, the dollar, oil. it feels like a lot of things but hard to see near term what that means for markets. >> i think you're absolutely right. the problem is with the geopolitical risk there's no end game for what we're seeing in the middle east, or the u.s./china dynamics or what we're seeing with russia/ukraine. that means you have a flight to safety you could see the stronger dollar remaining here, higher for longer, which is

harder for longer for a lot of the emerging markets countries. what we're seeing is that it's crowding out in some of the flows to other places. we've seen big out flows from emerging markets even as the macro data has held well for the bigger markets. including china stimulus we see the outflows because there is a flight to safety here. >> ten year closing in on 4.75. interesting. joyce maybe next time we'll talk china as well. good to see you. thank you joyce chang. >> good to see you, take care. >> let's let you check out the biggest gainers on the s&p this morning, led by generac. advance micro just fell off there but been monitoring. the rise in that stock after it was down after hours. we have a lot more to talk about this morning including cesar

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good day for shares of caesars entertainment popping

higher. let's get to contessa brewer. >> it was a record setting quarter for caesars made more than a billion dollars in adjusted ebitda. and they saw a growth in every segment, las vegas outperformed, again. occupancy up 3% over last year to 97% in the courquarter. food and beverage revenue, regionals best quarter on record, ceo tom reed said he's seeing stability in customer spending despite the nervous nelltys waiting for the shoe to drop. expanding properties clearly is having a positive impact in the regional portfolio. tough comps and challenging cost environments. boyd is down 10% over the past week.

caesars regional casinos seem to be fending off the competition and the headwinds. in digital a surprise profit when the street was expecting a l loss of a million bucks. league also said they have set aside money for back pay on a new contract with the culinary union. remember the union is threatening a strike. he said when this contract is finalized, it'll be the largest increase their employees have seen in the four decades of working with the culinary union. and he said, look, caesars workers should participate in the company's fortunes and a couple weeks until the f1 race in vegas. tom reed say they expect to add and are on pace to add fourth quarter profits because of an extraordinary event. he says already they're seeing international visitors coming up, that was the last segment to recover postpandemic in las

vegas and f 1 is doing an incredible job of bringing in not only the foreigners but high end, big spending international vi visitors as well carl. >> i know a good documentary coming out on that topic. >> it is huge. and contessa has been reporting on the casinos they had to all sign you have off to make it happen and they have crazy packages, million, five million, we have a look at what you can get for that money in the documentary. >> just a couple weeks away, right. still ahead what investors need to know ahead of another fed decision and the news conference this afternoon with jeff lacquer, why he said there's room to raise rates from here even with the two year threatening to break five. stay with us. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools,

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welcome back i'm silvana henao. the trump family is center stage this week in the former president's $250 million fraud trial. trump's sons are scheduled to testify over the next two days. the former president and his daughter, ivanka, are expected to take the stand next week. new york attorney general accuses trump and his children of being aware of and knowingly participating in a long running scheme to inflate the trump organization's assets everyone in the trump family has denied wrong doing. the u.s. infant mortality rate rose last year for the first time in two decades. according to a new cdc report. the rate of children dying went up 3% to nearly 6 infant deaths to 1 live birth. birth defects were the leading

cause of death followed by pre-term births. and two nasa astronauts suited up today for their first ever space walk. they're looking at upgrades at the international space station. the work is expected to take six and a half hours, guys. cool. just a few hours away from another decision on interest rates in a presser from jerome powell. steve liesman joins us with what to expect. >> i want to start with what's going on in the bond market right now ahead of the fed meeting, the ten year yield falling sharply at hthis moment taking two steps down. one in response to the weaker economic data especially the weak ism we got at the top of the hour. here's how the ten year looks. you can see the first leg down came at 830 and bounced back up now 478 which rick santelli says is an important benchmark level followed by the market. we haven't been down this level

since mid october. treasury saying it will auction $120 billion of securities, a touch below expectations. 102 billion is the refunding, 9.8 billion is new cash. it will gradually increase coupon auction sides for one more quarter. the key is the market liked the idea that the treasury saying the bulk of this is going to be towards the two to five year end rather than the 7 to 30 year end. that's the thing the market liked best and why there was a bit of a rally, which stocks glomed onto today. you're at zero for this meeting, call it zero, 21% for december and 28% for january. which raises a major question for the fed chair whether he's happy with the market pricing out the possibility of a rate hike here. he might use the press conference to inject a bit of

hawkishness if he's concerned the market is pricing out cuts faster than the fed wants. i think he wants bond yields to respond or fall in response to his comments today. >> steve thank you. joining us to discuss is former richmond fed president jeffrey lacquer. good to see you, jeff. >> good to see you, sarah. >> do you expect chair powell to lean one way or the other. he could go hawkish, inflation is still above target but we've seen the backup in long term rates. >> there's nothing in it for him to take interest rate hikes off the table and signal a definitive pause for a long time. as steve said, i agree with him. thaeps going to keep them on the table. they're still far from getting done, bringing inflation under control. we had great numbers in june and july but that was kind of a --

that looks transitory in h hind hindsight. the less two months have been favorable. we received the highest report we get on wages and compensation and it shows that basically wage deceleration stalled out 12 months ago. so wages don't seem to be -- wage rates don't seem to be coming down in a material way. against that backdrop, the uaw settlement being so rich, they're a tiny fraction of the workforce, maybe under .1%. but if that's a har binger of other wage hikes. risks have receded in the last six to 12 months they're not good but receded. and they are 2 to 4% behind where the real rate typically

gets and the recoveries in which the fed has been able to contain inflation from the 80s through the 2000s so in that setting pausing is perplexing and would seem to be a signal of some elevation of the employment mandate over their price stability mandate if you ask me. >> if you were at the table sounds like you would be leaning towards more hikes and that's the case that you would be making. on the flip side you can make the case the wage acceleration has stalled out and is coming down. i know the eci number was firmer yesterday but it's still in a down trend, you see it in the adp numbers as well and most of the inflation numbers, even if they're sticky they've come down very far we have the big rise in rates in the long run that's going to hurt the economy and consumer. maybe we haven't felt it yet but it's going to happen. >> inflation numbers and wage growth numbers have come down, but that comes when you look at

the 12 month numbers and what you have is, the strong gains from 2022 rolling off. if you look over the last six months, it's much less clear that the downward trend is very strong. so yeah, it could continue, it could pick up and we could get further down trend but we're not there yet. looks like 3.5% or 4 is right around where inflation is now. so we have a ways to go is the point. >> you think the market is wrong to assume that the fed is done raising rates? right now it's not priced in many for december. >> the market is looking at what the fed is likely to do, what i described is an argument for what they ought to do. those might be two different things. if they stay on the path they are, maybe one more increase, maybe january or december. they're going to get to the point in the second quarter where it could be the case that

the inflation data doesn't show much more deceleration, and they're going to be on the hook for whether they're going to raise rates again, get people prepared for further tightening or not. it seems to me like laying the ground work now for a higher probability of further hikes would be prudent. >> you think they can pull that off without a recession? or is that kind of a misunderstanding. >> i think they have room to run on that. the growth is so strong, labor market so tight. we have a number today better than expected. the real data has come in better than expected the last half year. that suggests they have room to tighten real rates. in fact, you can take the real growth as a signal of the extent to which they haven't done quite enough to reduce the growth of no, nominal spending which is what's feeding inflation and the real

growth. >> jeff lacquer with the hawkish case thanks for joining us. >> thanks. amd is up. stocks up more than 50% this year. our next guest said there's more double digit gains to be had. we'll look at y xtwhne. dow up 200. it's gonna be sweet! what? i'm 12 hours short. - have a fun weekend. - ♪ unnecessary action hero! unnecessary. ♪ - was that necessary? - no. neither is a blown weekend. with paycom, employees do their own payroll so you can fix problems before they become problems. - hmm! get paycom and make the unnecessary, unnecessary. - see you down the line. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking

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take a look at shares of amd moving up nicely this morning. this after the chip maker offered what seemed to be soft guidance but comments from lisa su on the conference call about a.i. chip sales that seems to be one reason the stocks has gains. and offset weakness in gaming into 2024. let's bring in this a semiconductor analyst with a buy rating on the stock. ai, vijay i think they're

talking 2 billion in revenues. what are your thoughts about competing against nvidia and just in general for a.i. chips. >> as i look at a.i., obviously a big market, nvidia document nates it, the amd starting to invest well from about 400 million this year. so nice as you see that a.i. market starting to come together for amd. but also we have a december 6th event coming up on the next generation products on the a.i. side which should be a good set up to the end of the year. obviously the core markets, data centers and pcs are doing better and a.i. on top of it. >> for the end customer, what's amd's sales pitch when it comes to a.i.? why them and not nvidia, for example? >> obviously nvidia has a very high end high performance

product, a premium priced product there. amd is coming in with a much better memory architecture, they also have a lower, i would say more attractive price point which increases the to have a couple of sources on your ai hardware platform. you don't want to be stuck to one oem. that's a huge advantage for amd in the market that's so tightly, a tight supply, and such a huge demand. so that will be for them in 2024 and looking out into '25, '26. >> a lot of these stocks are trading as ai stories, they're still issues with the end markets. what did we learn about pcs and gaming and demand in general for the bulk of the revenues, where it is right now? >> for one, gaming was weak.

and that's what was soft in the guide for december. but pcs and data centers are showing some signs of stabilizing and improving. pcs for them was up almost 46% sequentially. they did much better than intel. intel was up only 16% sequentially. and the data center side, too, when you look at the sequential numbers, up a nice 20, 21% sequentially, versus still in the quarter. that said, both pc and data should start to be coming around. that should be a tail wind for all of these guys, amd. >> thanks -- got it. thanks for the update this morning. obviously, amd shares doing quite well. nvidia, which was not on that chart, up also up over 2%. we have some developinne og wsn the trial of sam bankman-fried. that will be right after that break.

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closing arguments underway at the sbf trial. let's get to our kate rooney who is outside the courthouse. hey, kate. >> hey, carl, good morning. so closing arguments just started with the prosecution. the assistant u.s. attorney kicked things paoff. he's trying to simplify what happened at sbx, saying it was a

pyramid of deceit that was built by the defendant that eventually collapsed. he said a year ago, thousands of people tried to withdraw their funds from sbx, but that billions of dollars were just gone. he asked who was responsible, he stepped out from behind the podium and pointed directly at bankman-fried skand said, this man, samuel bankman-fried. he then transitioned into what he said were the straight forward facts that were not in dispute. he said customers believed their deposits were theirs, not to be used by anyone. he said that ftx was the safest way to buy cryptocurrency. and he said $10 billion was missing. the goth attorney said, he thought he could talk his way out of it. he then told the jury that the defendant has lied to them. he said he was move during some of the direct questioning from his own attorneys, and then he was a, quote, different person during questioning by the prosecution. he reminded them that

bankman-fried said, i can' recall over 140 times during those questions by the government. called into question as well, how the jury could believe that he didn't know what was going on at his crypto company saying, to believe this story, you would have to ignore the evidence. you would have to believe the defendant that graduated from m.i.t. and built two multi-million dollar companies was actually clueless. >> always important to remember, all it takes is one juror who refuses to convict for there to be the possibility of a mistrial. when are we going to get -- when do we get to thejury's decision? how far away are we from that? >> so as soon as tomorrow, david. they're going to finish up closing arguments, get through some of the procedural jury things at the end of the day and read through the case. and it could go to a jury tomorrow. it's still up in the air if court is meeting on friday. could continue into next week. but if the jury decides all of this quickly, we could get a verdict by the end of tomorrow, but as you said, david, it just

takes one jury to have that reasonable doubt, and you could end up with a hung jury or eventually a retrial. we'll see. >> s they convict, then who decides -- is it the judge who says how many years? >> the judge, yeah. so the judge has discretion, i'm told, and also the fact that he did testify could play into some of the sentencing, if the judge determines he thinks he lied under oath, that could add years to his sentence. >> kate, thanks for your great coverage. kate rooney at the courthouse not far where we are from the eangyork stock exchange. spki of which, "squawk on the street" will be right back from the new york stock exchange. ♪(romantic music)♪ (♪♪) (♪♪)

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good wednesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. with us today, deutsche bank's chief u.s. equity and global strategist on baa to expect from the fed this afternoon. plus, implications from the treasury's refunding announcement today. >> it's been a tough few months for the solar business, as you know. but first solar was higher after results. ceo will join us in an exclusive later this hour. >> and finally, the $1.8 billion settlement shaking up the real estate sector. the big changes that could be coming when buying a home. first, though, a check on the markets. some suspicions of a squeeze the last couple of days, that