good wednesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. with us today, deutsche bank's chief u.s. equity and global strategist on baa to expect from the fed this afternoon. plus, implications from the treasury's refunding announcement today. >> it's been a tough few months for the solar business, as you know. but first solar was higher after results. ceo will join us in an exclusive later this hour. >> and finally, the $1.8 billion settlement shaking up the real estate sector. the big changes that could be coming when buying a home. first, though, a check on the markets. some suspicions of a squeeze the last couple of days, that

remains in place apparently at the moment. dow is up almost 200. ten-year circling back close to 4.75. the two-year flirting with 5. we'll watch all of that going into tonight. >> big drop in bond yields, below the 4.8 level in the ten-year. the move higher in stocks, but for the last few days, more than an oversold bounce. let's bring in senior markets commentator, mike santoli. how are you reading into this move higher? >> still to be proven, but things are falling into place. you mentioned ten-year treasury yields coming down below 4.8. that's the level that i've been talking about for a week and a half that's acted as a floor. we clinched up in advance of this treasury announcement. the volatility index is a nice spike on the chart. i still think while we've broken this down very short-term, you still probably need another 1% on the s&p 500 to kind of get you out of that trough on the chart and clear another couple of hurdles. i do think, though, that it's very clear that the market has

been pricing in a relatively steep fall off in economic growth in earnings. while the evidence is not quite there for it. so there's a dgap in there that can be filled in by a little bit of relief. obviously, the fed today, we'll see if they're really very assertive about saying that we need to run this economy way below trend for a long time before we give you a break on rates. but we've checked pack. the s&p 500 sort of checked back to these first-quarter index levels and said, that's when we kind of thought the soft landing was a long shot. then we got overconfident it was going to happen. and now it seems like you can still make the case, even those the sectors of the market that are performing and not suggest there's a lot of doubt about it. >> we had a win in october, doesn't really feel like it, though. >> we had one in october. i mean, look, we were up 18 straight mondays in the nasdaq 100 and still down over that period. so, looking to break some of those cycles, because it has been this pattern for four weeks

or so, where you have a high monday or tuesday and lose it the rest of the week. nasdaq is actually the start today. last couple days, it was the laggard groups, financial and small caps that were getting picked up. today, not so much. but it's sort of that mix and match on a given day what can get you through. >> but obviously no coincidence that's coming on the back of yields following moreau the 5%, now below the 4.8%. and it's interesting, because we got some data at the top of the hour, which sort of further led to bond buying on the back of the refunding announcement, which was the ism was weak. >> yes. >> and a lot weaker than expected. prices paid a little bit lower, despite the fact that the jolts number showed job openings are still going strong. >> and it's interesting, because you had seen a little firming in the purchasing management an ex. i have been saying for a while that the strikes give you a little bit of a mulligan perhaps on some of the fourth quarter numbers on manufacturing. we'll see if that even matters. if that's what the ism was about.

but you're right, right now, the bond market craves a little bit of cooling off. we got a 4.9% gdp level. you usually don't go from 4% plus gdp to an outright stall in the economy. right? usually, there's a middle ground, you can muddle through for a while, and i think that's almost the bull case at the moment. >> mike, thanks. we'll talk in a little bit. mike santoli. sticking with markets, our next guest says that earnings season has been pretty good for the s&p, despite a slide in these last three months and is optimistic that we can still finish the year around 4,500. looking at financials and consumer siblings as areas of opportunity. joining us is deutsche bank's chief global strategist, it's great to have you back. >> thanks, carl. >> so you think, base case is, we can grind a little higher here? >> absolutely. i think, if you think about, you know, the three-month pullback that we've had, it's really had three drivers. garden variety pullback in august. i would say, rates, volatility after the september fmoc, and

rates, which has been the driver of pretty much everything for the last 18 months has basically been going sideways since it spiked. i think if you look at realized volatility in the bond market, it's come off pretty sharply. so i expect it will pressure the implied, which is what the market is following. and last but not least, we have and we are left with really the geopolitical risks. and i think here, you know, the couple of things that you want to keep in mind, and it is a bit counterintuitive, is that, of course, geopolitical events and risks, typically the market sells off hard. but it tends to be about a three-week sell-off, 6 to 8%, depending whethers or medians. and the market tends to recover from those just as fast and it takes basically three weeks to come back.

so if you look at the extent to which the market sold off on geopolitical risks, i would say it was exactly 6%. that puts you in the vicinity of a typical response. and, you know, there is the flip side. we could get an escalation, but i would argue, absent that, and that's our base case, really a big, sustained escalation. you know, the market should grind higher. >> what about the argument that the guidance ratio has been weak, as we work our way through earnings? >> yeah, you know, my parallel with that is, nobody wants to go out on a limb when every macro economist in the world tells you that growth is going to go, as mike said, from 5 to 0 next quarter, they've been saying that for five quarters now. and so, you know, you can decide how much -- >> corporates are using an opportunity to maybe underpromise. >> i mean, it's difficult to go

out on a limb. and i think that's partly what's going on, rather than -- i mean, we just got the gdp numbers. they don't tell you that there's any sort of big slowdown, if i look at private consumption, real private kolg asconsumption u.s., went right back into the same channel. clear and steady since. obviously, there's not a lot to see here and not a lot that's saying, besides all the fears that we have about the future, that any slowly is really happening. >> but you know that counterargument. we haven't felt the bulk of the tightening yet and it's going to hurt. >> i know a lot of counterarguments. yeah, you know, the lag. we have one joke where that it's a 25-year lag. keeping in mind. and you know, we're looking -- there's just, you know, we all know in 1959, you know, milton

friedman said, long and variable lags. and unfortunately, i think the economics profession hasn't really made a lot of progress on the question since 1959. >> but credit card rates are over 20%. mortgage ratesare about 8%. any loans, auto loans, and we're seeing the delinquencies starting to pile up. that is going to be felt. >> there's no doubt that rates have moved up and moved up a lot. the question is, what should you compare current levels to? a longer history would tell you the average ten-year yield is actually close to 6% and 5% is kind of low. so you need to be a little bit careful in looking at average valuations and the like, if you believe interest rates do matter for that. and, you know, otherwise win mean, i listen to earnings calls and you know, everybody is basically talking about, you know, what's happening with inventories and the cost of carry has gone up because of

interest rate zmas a driver? most people say, there's no evidence of that whatsoever. so i guess it's a question of, what are you used to, number one. and number two, if you look basically at whafg happening in the economy when rates were very low, we had one of the most aggressive household deleveragings on record, which took household leverage to all-time lows and so it's not like there was this big party happening. >> we've been having a lot of discussions lately about how rational households were relative to governments, when they had their chance. >> you know, a household leverage is mostly in the housing market, most of the deleveraging is after the global financial crisis, which was a housing problem, part of the deleveraging was a regulatory push, if you increase the down payment required, that's a fourth deleveraging, some of it was forced and some of it was

fear. >> then we mentioned consumer cyclicals. >> it would be the retailers and the like. point being that everybody has been waiting for recession for five quarters. the market has also been waiting for that and it crushed the cyclical part. and at this point, i argued that the market priced that in relative to any reasonable sort of outlook, and so that'swhere we're long. >> we'll see where we get in the next 40 or so sessions, thank you. good to see you. >> it's been a year since rxo spun out from xco logistics. the stock is down about 8% after that time. we'll check in with the ceo on

the outlook. >> shares of real estate brokers just taking a hit as that jury found that realtors were liable for inflating commissions. we'll talk more about that story when we're back in a couple of minutes. that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis

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watch qualcomm today. reports after the bell. handset demands will be in focus. android expected to be roughly flat, while revenue from iphone parts might see a small sequential growth. that's according to morgan stanley. deutsche cut the stock to hold and says they expect to be more in line with guidance for handsets. terms of historical performance, revenue has beaten 15 of the past 20 quarters, but given the readthrough we've gotten from texan and some other semi names, be interesting to watch. >> and amd, quite a turnaround there. turning now to the latest in the middle east, as the first evacuations begin through that rafah crossing into egypt, jay gray joins us now from tel aviv

with the latest. jay? >> hey, there, sarah. as you talk about, after weeks of negotiation, we are seeing for the first time people leaving gaza through the rafah border crossing into egypt, where about 70 to 80 ambulances came through. and these for palestinians that were critically injured during some of the air strikes from the idf. and needing surgery, desperately needing surgery. they've been allowed to leave and those plambulances going to field hospital just across the border, where that surgery will take place. and then you've got foreign nationals. some families who have been there for weeks as well, getting their chance to leave gaza. we know that a handful of americans have been among those who have already left. we know or we're told that more will be able to leave tomorrow. this has been a constant negotiation. qatar serving as the middle man here, with israel, hamas, and egypt. and we're told that the u.s.

negotiators were in a complimentary role here, but that the sticking point had been hamas. not allowing those gates to open. but apparently a change through those negotiations. and we may see that continue to happen over the next couple of days. now, i want to make it clear, this has nothing to do with the negotiations for hostages. it has nothing to do with the negotiations for humanitarian aid. all separate negotiations that are all going on at the same time. and to this point, we haven't seen any movement lately on the hostages. we know that they continue to talk, but it's been much more difficult, according to the qatarries, since the advance on the ground. let's talk a little bit about that. we know that ground troops are not only advancing, but more troops are moving in, more equipment, tanks, and other heavy equipment moving in. and they're sectioning things off and just moving in increments. moving forward further into gaza. what the idf is saying is that they are working adds joint

combat teams with air strikes continuing to pave the way, and then you've got the israeli navy also working just off the coast. more than 300 targets hit, we were told, in the last 24 hours. and the idf says that they have taken out one of the key masterminds behind the attacks on october 7th. someone who is a leader within the structure of hamas. hamas has countered, saying that's not the case, and we haven't seen any physical evidence on either side. but again, the idf saying that not only have they taken out this leader, but multiple members of his team. and so that's something that they were targeting in that area, in the process, they have acknowledged that they hit a refugee camp there. dozens were killed, apparently, in that strike. and we now know there's been a second strike in the region, with 20 civilian homes, structures, that have crumpled as a result of those strikes. so a very active idf presence in that area right now, as they

continue, they say, to search out and find these hamas leaders. we have been told that the idf is reporting its first loss of troops on the ground, at least 11 soldiers lost between the ages of 19 and 24. and benjamin netanyahu reaching out to the families of those soldier, and i'm quoting here, guys, they have fall. in the most just of wars. the war for our homes. so obviously they'll continue with this process. netanyahu repeating again that now there is no time for any type of cease-fire or pause. >> thank you, jay gray from tel aviv. meantime, it has been a year since xpo logistics spun off the tech-heavy side of its business with a debut of rxo last november. it's been a busy time for the freight train as they look ahead to the holiday shipping season

and the implications of ai. joining us is rxo ceo drew wilkerson. welcome back and good to see you. >> thank you for having me, sarah. great to be here. >> where are we in the freight cycle right now? >> we're in a soft part of the freight cycle. a lot of people would not want to spin off in a soft part of the freight cycle. we're getting to show not only can we perform in an upturn but in a downturn. despite the growth. how much room is there to grow market share? >> we've got -- this is an enormous market. this is over a $400 billion for-hire truckload market. and while from 2013 to 2021, we grew three times faster than the truck brokage market, we only have 4% of the overall truck breakage market. so we have a lot of room for growth over the next several years. >> what do you think, restocking or at least peak season looks

like in the next couple of months here? >> our customers are tell us that their inventory levels are in a good position heading into peak season. but we're hearing different things from different customers. some customers are telling us that they're going to have a peak season, some customers are telling us it's going to be a muted peak season. the biggest unknown is what's going to happen with consumer demand. and we'll really find that out over the next few weeks how strong of a peak season or a muted peak season we have. >> is the auto strike affecting you? >> we're the largest manager of ground expedite shipments, and ground expedite shipments are built largely off of automotive customers. anytime the plants are going up or down, it can have an impact on the business one way or another. >> but clearly a temporary issue. you describe yourselves as a tech-enabled freight broker. so in this world, where everything is moving toward ai, how are you thinking about how much of a game changer that could be on logistics and shipping? >> ai is nothing new to us. we've been investing in ai for

over a decade. it's how we built the system. it allows us to increase our employees' productivity. on the customer side, our systems will tell them what day of the week they should ship something. we've helped some of our customers decide where they're going to place warehouses to best route their transportation. >> in recent years, we've talked about driverless and the future and the promise of long-haul driverless trucking. now you've got this gm cruise thing in california. has that done some damage to the long-term aspirations? >> i've been hearing about this for as long as i've been hearing about this. the first place you'll see it is probably on shorter haul, where they can route it easier. >> why short as opposed to long? >> because they're going to know the roads better and be able to route it there. if you think long hauls, there's a lot of back roads and unknowns as they go there.

>> do you expect to see a recession? >> for us, we have to be prepared for anything. this is, as i said earlier, we're confident in our ability to perform in any market cycle and be able to go out and take market share. z >> drew, thank you for coming on the with the update. as the earnings roll in, we are beginning to see some cracks, at least in china. and matt names like yum china and estee lauder down this morning. we'll talk about that story, next. plus, the ceo of first similar joins us. that stock heading lower this morning after missing revenue estimates for the latest 'ldiusitr. wel scs . back in a moment. to automate, but if it's using untrusted data can you trust the results? your business doesn't just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy ai, all with your trusted data. let's create the right ai for your business

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european markets poised to close higher today as we await the fed's rate decision here in the u.s. retail stocks are leading the way, up about a percent and a half this morning, this after the clothing company next in the uk upped its profit outlook. meantime, aston martin is a mover after the company cut its full-year guidance over lingering debt. on that note, we're seeing manufacturing struggle across the globe. pmi data, missing expectations in the uk, in china, and in india this morning. all of this ahead of the fed meeting here in the u.s. where the central bank is expected to keep rates steady, a theme we're seeing deployable. october saw five central banks hold rates steady at their policy meeting. tomorrow we'll get bank of england, also expected to leave its rate unchanged for the

second straight meeting. they all kind of come together when it comes to this policy stance, which is the feeling we've done a lot, inflation is still a little bit high for us, but we're willing to sort of wait and see where we go. they've also, though, importantly, adopted the higher for longer mantra, saw that in the ecb, expect that from the fed. in other words, we're not thinking of cutting anytime soon, because there's still work to do on inflation. >> the goldman desk this morning said the g-10 country central banks have pretty much all stopped hiking now for the most part. >> how about that? are they done? to be determined. >> turning now to demand in china and how weakening outlook has shares of yum china and estee lauder taking a hit this morning. >> we'll start with that yum china story, as you point out, which is firmly lower after the third quarter revenues at that company came in below analyst estimates, driven in part by weakness in the pizza hut brand. they got softening demand in

china through late october and warned that the trend could have a more pronounced effect on those profit margins there. so yum china, off 20%. turning to cosmetics giant estee lauder, which is lower citing slower growth in its prestige beauty products in asia. sales in its skin care segment fell 21%. china, a big part of that story. those shares off 18%. and we'll end on canada goose, which also cut its guidance, as well. the company saw pressure in a number of regions, but its revenue growth in china specifically was lower than in prior quarters, prompting some concerns about a slowing recovery over there. it's not just the consumer with canada goose down 9%. earlier in the week, dupont noting continued softness in china, along with slower industrial water demand. dupont shares off 6%. that follows a warning from caterpillar earlier in the week, which expects a lower than normal share of its sales to

come from china as demand remains weaker there. those cat shares saw that big deep earlier this week. keep an eye on those companies raising the flag about potential speed bumps for economic recovery in the world's second biggest economy, carl. i'll send things back over to you. >> thanks very much. let's get a news update with contessa brewer. >> pakistan reached its deadline today to expel all undocument immigranted, including hundreds of thousands of afghan nationals. the country said it's begun the process of arresting undocumented people in the interest of national security, and despite calls to reconsider the policy from the united nations and human rights groups. the american cancer society is expanding guidelines for who should get annual lung cancer scans. they now include heavy smokers, even if they quit more than 15 years ago. previously, the guidelines recommended scans for american between 50 to 80 years old who smoked heavily within the last 15 years. lung cancer is the nation's top

cancer killer. and the nation's largest for-profit college is facing a nearly $38 million fine. the education department accuses grand canyon university of misrepresenting the cost of some of its doctoral programs by not accurately reflecting the number of credit students need to graduate. many students paid as much as $12,000 more to finish their degrees, according to the government. the university denies those claims. sarah? >> okay, contessa, thank you. >> sure. the fed in focus today ahead of its big rate decision this afternoon. we'll speak with principle asset management's kmal batya next on what he expects for rates and the bond market. big player there. we're back in a moment.

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pay com having its worst day ever. the reason, q4 outlook was a big disappointment. revenue growth expected in the 10 to 12% range. analysts were looking for more like 21. word on the street is cannibalizing. that's what management said new strategic investment decisions surrounding its betty payroll product is doing to certain billable items and a portion of services and unscheduled revenues. investors and analysts growing a bit bearish. eight downgrades and counting today, although most are to hold. we have a few earnings blow-ups. that is today. >> down almost 40%. the federal reserve expected to hold rates steady at 22-year highs here, between 5.25 and 5.5%. our next guest thinks we could be on pause for some time, noting that the fed could see the recent rise in long-term rates replacing the need for additional hikes. joining us now on the fed and how he's positioning through the end of the year is global head of investments, kamal bhatia. principle has $480 billion in assets under management in the u.s., $170 billion outside the

u.s. big player in fixed income real estate and equities. so kamal, how are you positioning for the fed from here? >> good to be back here, sara and carl. i think there are probably two data points as we process the earnings and fed action. i think it's probably pause is the right term. i think the events of this morning were probably more of a non-event from our seat. i think there is a lot of fed commentary coming our way, and everybody is processing it. but from what we look at is, it's hardly a pause on the fed. if you look at the 3q earnings, there's a couple of interesting data points that jumped out at us. earnings did not disappoint or exceed expectations. they're kind of for the first time in sinc can economic drivers. there was probably a sense that financials were better than expectations, and something like health care, underperformed expectations. so you kind of see a bifurcation in the economy. so what that means is, there was a view that more interest

rate-sensitive sectors, more credit-sensitive sectors would be suffering as we look forward. that hasn't played out as much. and sectors that were probably not as indexed to interest rates would do well. and that's not true. so i think there's been a change in that dimension. >> what are you doing with bonds now? are you buying if you think the fed has paused? is it a final pause? >> i think it was a very interesting juncture in bonds. i think for the past 18 to 24 months, it has really just been about the coupon. and for the first time, i think you see the subtle period of transition, where you are smart, if you become a total return investor. for the first time, i think you can manage duration actively and generate quite good active returns in bonds. we are not there fully, but we are at an early dawn of that transition. i think it pays to be more active management in bonds, looking beyond just the coupons. and as the credit environment, it's not bad, particularly for investment grade. >> you mentioned financials. there was a moment when we were

looking at the kbw flirting be the march lows. is there value there or not? >> i think value is an interesting word, carl. i think the way we think about it is, quality is a better word than value. i think if you look at the other transition that's happening in the market place, and the big megacap names havereflected this, is, is momentum was a big part of market growth across the world. and we see momentum kind of slowing down. you see still more volatility, but everybody assume high volatility meant high momentum which meant higher returns. and i think it's probably a subsidization of moment. you could look at other sectors for that return of quality, which is what i like. >> such as? >> we are pretty much a pretty big global investor. and if you look across the world, one of the things we have observed is industrials have

been -- there are a lot of industrials who are in the quality sector. and we are big fans of those names. i think the other thing we are probably a bigger fan of is historically people have assumed a small cap premium. we are seeing a large cap premium. what has happening is going back to the conversation, when the fed had this low-rate environment, many of the larger names, not just here, but across the world, refinanced on the longer-term at 11:00, that they are very liquid rich. they have enormous cash flow and the change in rate policy is almost insular to them from outcomes. and the small caps are really bearing the brunt of it. so in the cycle, i think this idea that historically small cams rallying, i don't think that will play out. we're in a different world, where the large cap premium becomes more premium than before. >> globallily, where do you see

the biggest opportunities? >> one of the places we have been bullish for a while is parts of, brazil. in asia, there are markets of strength. india has been talked about a lot. but i think japan is a great place to invest. i think the rate environment obviously has changed after many generations, but when you look at the earnings growth of japanese companies, it's been sustainable. i think that's another area that we have been excited about. >> about japan. >> what should be the right balance now on u.s. equities versus u.s. bonds? >> we are pretty much neutral across asset allocations. our view remains, you kind of remain overweight large caps, as i said. you definitely want to overweight quality over momentum. and you can see the sectors that play out that way. on fixed income, as i said, we would take more duration risk moving forward, but slowly in that regard. and we have been very optimistic

on credit for a while. i do think it doesn't deteriorate at all, even if the economic conditions change. >> thank you very much for sharing some of the views from principle. appreciate it. >> thank you, sara, thank you, carl. >> kamal bhatia. >> when we come back, airbnb set to report tonight. stocks up about 38% for the year. back in a moment. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's yours free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call,

a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free, and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money, and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care, and more. you can keep the doctors you have now, ones you know and trust, with no referrals needed. plus, you can get medical care anywhere in the country, even when you're traveling! with humana, you get a competitive monthly premium, and personalized service, from a healthcare partner working to make healthcare simpler and easier for you. you can choose from a wide range of standardized plans. each one is designed to work seamlessly with medicare and help save you

money! so how do you find the plan that's right for you? one that fits your needs and your budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free, and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs. so, call now and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer.

it's an important print for airbnb tonight as investors watch for how rising rates have impacted the company. that's the focus of today's "tech check" with deirdre bosa. >> earlier this year, speculation that the, quote, airbnbust is on us. it was everywhere. making it more expensive to finance a short-term rental property, lower occupancy rates in popular vacation spots and major airbnb markets like phoenix and austin. return to work post-pandemic. but what was supposed to be a

perfect storm to hit the business model hasn't materialized in a significant way. and the company is generating more free cash flow than ever. that's because rising interest rates help airbnb, the company, itself, even if it makes life potentially more complicated for its hosts. now, when you book an airbnb or a vrbo, the company charges you at booking and holds on to that money until you arrive for your stay and then passes it on the due amount to the host. but in the interim, that period between booking and stay, which can be months, the platforms have billions of dollars in customer money to invest in money market funds and short-term high-quality bonds. rising interest rates means that those returns are higher than ever, and that is a key part of what makes airbnb profitable compared to say another sharing economy company like uber, which can't play with that kind of arbitrage. now, the holding for short-term rental sites, they are huge. given that these are travel companies, these are not financial services companies. at the end of june, airbnb held more than $9 billion in funds on

behalf of customers. expedia held $11.5 billion and bookings holding held $6 billion. interest income has shot over the last year. in the first half of 2022, it was just $25 million for airbnb. in the first half of this year, it was $337 million. and management credited it for a large spike in net income. now, to be sure, this new source of income, interest on customer funds, it's only part of total profitability, but it continues to make airbnb an unlikely beneficiary of rising rates and can offset some of its challenges. tonight when it reports, the core business will be in focus. revenue growth is expected to decelerate year over year, and there are growing cracks around the edges. nights booked decelerated earlier this year. the average daily rate is shrinking and there's also a new regulatory battle where you guys are in new york. >> what about just general demand, deirdre? how much is it correlated to what we're hearing and seeing from the hotels and the cruise lines and the casinos, which, i

mean, the commentary has been very bullish. cesar's today showing no signs of a slowdown. good news from hilton. airbnb did well during the pandemic when they did not, so i just wonder now if they're all in sync? >> and if you look at adr, average daily rate at airbnb, people willing to pay a lot more, because they wanted to book sort of whole homes. airbnbs and vacation destinations. maybe less so, cities where travel took a little longer to come back. but now you sort of adrs, that is the nightly rates rise, in places like hotels and moderate much more at airbnb. that's something you can look at to look at that demand. and we know that revenue growth slowing down a little bit, so maybe a return to normal, like we've seen from a lot of pandemic darlings. but airbnb would tell you that it has been beefing up its city, its metropolis bookings that should position it well. but the ceo, wrbrian chesky has been very candid about all the things they need to do to make

their proposition compelling. >> deirdre, thank you. the ceo of first solar joins us on the other side of this break. we'll discuss the demand picture for solar when we come right back. dow's up 110 points. during my entire life i have been somewhat of an outdoors person. golf, gardening around here. how can i stay out of the sun? so about two years ago i was diagnosed with basal cell carcinoma. when they discussed the mohs surgery on my face, i was not really a fan of that because the scarring can be disfiguring. if you've been affected by skin cancer,

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such interesting times in the business. a big argument pricing, demand andsentiment is at an inflection point? how are you reading the space? >> i think on the utility scale space it's been a strong year and continues to be a strong year. in the residential space, they aren't applicable to us. over 20 years of the company's existence there's a lot of growth going on in many parts of the u.s. we're headquarters in arizona. going across into florida and that's what's driving robust demand in our technology. we still booked almost seven gigawatts, so we're still very

encouraged and see strong demand and a great environment as we continue to move forward. >> how much of next year do you think will be about policy and elections that drive policy? >> there has been an impact largely focused on the u.s. trying to create an environment with security and a domestic and that's largely what's been happening the last year or so. poll six are important but at the same time there's a fundamental need for energy. we're starting to see more solar integrated with storage which is expanding the adjustable market in terms of the hours of the day where solar energy can be deployed and dispatched to meet the consumer demand. there's a fundamental need in

demand. we have to keep them both in balance. it's important to stay engaged in policy at the state and federal level. >> carl referenced the pricing. what's going on in terms of pricing pressure in the business for the panel? >> one thing to remember, we're pricing out to the end of this decade. we have a multiyear backlog that goes out to the end of this decade. we are pricingforward. there historically is an environment where we would expect technology advances to help drive the efficiency of our technology to aer who level which will drive to a lower asp. near term pricing has changed a little bit in the u.s. we sell heavily in india, a market that pricing has held up well. if you sell out into '27, '28, '29, a slightly lower price in an asp environment.

we booked the last quarter effectively a flat asp to the prior quarter. we've been disciplined in how we're engaging the market, holding firm on pricing and have been able to be successful in doing that. >> what about the efforts to reshore solar and evs from the chinese market? how is that going, and what's the right way to do it when you think how much it should cost and whether the cost makes sense with the economics? >> it's actually going extremely well. if you look at the u.s. market, we have, just on our own since the announcement of the inflation reduction act, added about double our capacity that was planned at that point in time for the u.s. market. others have done similar things and we were growing before it was announced, in the midst of adding another factory in the u.s. and southeast asia

operations. the opportunity now in the u.s. will be more than self-sufficient to meet the demand through the decade. it needs to be done in a thoughtful, balanced way, strategic, insightful. the one thing i would say right now, we are vertically integrated manufacturer and do the entire production process within the four walls of the manufacturing facility. our competitors use a different technology largely bring modular assembly into the u.s. market. the very first step of the silicon production process through the assembly. what's gapping with our competitors there's not enough vertical integrate such that when we get through the

reduction act, we'll enable the u.s. to be a technology rleader. that's the only complaint i would have right now, it needs to be more vertically integrated supply chain. i would love to see the balance of the industry. >> plenty of businesses finding the benefits of being vertical. mark, appreciate that. talk soon. thank you. mark widmar. >> thank you very much. finally, a u.s. jury finding realtors liable for inflating commissions is having a big impact on shares of brokerages. robert frank with the details. robert? >> reporter: shares of red fin, compass and douglas down after the verdict. brokers calling it an earthquake in the real estate business.

$1.8 billion in damages. they saythey drove up broker commissions. that aword could triple over $5 billion in antitrust laws. the requirement the seller's agent pay the buyer brokers which many say inflate commissions. the nar and brokers will, of course, appeal. other brokerage firms, the same allegations and the justice department also looking into the brokerage industry. the u.s. has the highest brokerage fees at 5% compared to 2% in most other countries. carl, we'll see if that starts to come down after this ruling. >> fascinating. robert, thanks. our robert frank. let's get to diana olick with more on the stock reaction and comments from zillow. >> carl, i spoke with zillow which was not a part of this

lawsuit, to be clear. its stock took a huge hit nonetheless. they said the zillow ceo will have a lot to say about this when earnings reports after the bell today. for now zillow's position is buyers and sellers deserve independent representation, and they want it paid for by the seller. if a buyer has to pay directly, that's yet another expense in a very pricey housing market. they gave me a formal statement from a spokesperson saying home buyers need agents who work only in their best interests. part of that is making sure consumers are well informed of agent fees, who is paying them, and their right to negotiate them while ensuring agents are paid fairly. zillow is in a strong position and will always focus on serving the needs of consumers. again, expect to hear more from zillow's ceo after the bell today. back to you. >> okay, diana. thank you very much. diana olick. taking a look at the markets ahelped of the big fed decision, carl, we are going strong, and i

think part of the big setup here is we've seen bonds rally with yields moving south and that offers some relief to equities, but potentially to the fed. it comes from weak data, the ism. people are focused on that number, prices paid, and then the treasury refunding announcement, a little less worry there in terms of just how much the treasury will sell and issue debt. >> we're working our way through so many things right now. it's earnings, the data you mentioned. we haven't even gotten to jobs friday where it's going to be a lot about the overall strength of the labor market and wages even with the data this week. >> we expect to step down in terms of the pace of hiring. last month 336,000 jobs were added. as long as pages can continue to moderate at least, that should be good enough for the fed. they do want to get inflation under control which is why i'm

eager to hear how powell is describing what's happening with wages now. we heard from the former richmond fed president last hour, and he was saying, yeah, we've seen some progress there, but wages are still strong and have stagnated at the higher levels. that's a problem for inflation and the fed. >> look at what the autoworkers were able to put together. let's get to post 9 and "the half." carl, thanks so much. welcome to the "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. the jump in stocks, the drop in yields, what the fed might do in a couple hours from now that could impact both the investment committee is with me for the answer. joining me, joe terranova, bryn talkington, steve weiss, richard saperstine. the ten-year note yield dropped a lot this morning, 4.79. all right, joe, the first trading day of november, decision 2:00, news conference after.