>> some surprises today. just to recap. i mean, qualcomm did better than expected. doordash really, on the results and on the guide and profitability, pretty darn strong. so, glad tony stopped by "overtime" to tell us about it. >> yeah. i thought electronic arts, ea was really interesting, too, in a post-fifa world, leading edge of a.i. there. that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. did the fed just give the all-clear for stocks in markets closing near the highs of the day after the central bank paused for the second meeting in a row. but with the possibility of hikes on the table, are investors getting too far ahead of themselves? plus, buy china? it's been a rough ride for stocks this year, and plenty of companies are raising the red flags over growth in that region. so, what better time to get into those markets? someone on this desk is getting overweight these names. we'll find out why. and a big afterhours move in

solar, zillow, roku, and more. all the earnings headlines after hours. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grasso. the post-fed market rally. the central bank keeping rates unchanged for the second time in a row and upgrading its assessment of economic growth. stocks closing near their highs of the day. the nasdaq up almost 2%. the dow jumping 221 points. the s&p 500 gaining. for all the details from today's decision, let's bring in cnbc's steve liesman. steve, it's funny, because most people walked away from the press conference believing that the fed still left the door open to another hike and yet the markets are running away like that's not a possibility at all. >> yeah, i'm going to walk through, melissa, and you can tell me if you think i'm crazy at the end of this, why there was a dovish tilt to this thing. they left rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row. that range of 5.5%, that was as

expected. but fed chair jay powell, i think he provided a modestly dovish outlook suggesting at least that that additional rate hike may not occur. and i say may not, advisedly. why he affirmed that the takeaway from the statement is that, yes, policy makers are leaning towards that hike, as melissa just said, that is, by the way, in most committee members' forecast. powell said it was unclear if that would occur. that's because risk between doing too much and doing too little will now become more balanced. >> it's fair to say that's the question we're asking. it's not, you know, that is the question and you're right, that, in september, we wrote down one additional rate hike, but you know, we'll write down another forecast, as you know, in december. >> powell said the rise in yields was among the reasons that the fed could hold, at least at its current level, with sharply higher rates doing the work for the fed. but he said those gains have to be persistent in order to hold

the fed at bay. let's look at what happened. today, yields fell sharply and meaningfully with the treasury announcing a slightly more upbeat refunding plan for the growing u.s. debt. and with the announcement from the fed. okay. so, the fed's statement upgraded the economy and jobs, but noted that tighter financial and credit conditions would likely weigh on the economy. the result of all this, the fed remains on temporary hold until the economy slows amid fears of decline. powell said that was more likely, but would not say it was a certainty. >> so, we're back into this conundrum, steve, and that it's dovish, the markets like it, they rally, yields come down, conditions are less tight, and here we go again. now is the fed back in play? i mean -- i wonder if there's a line in the sand here for the fed in terms of, you know, if markets rip in response, then they step in? >> i don't think that's the first order of what would bring the fed back in, melissa. i think the first order is the data. if this economy does not slow,

and i will point out, there's only a little bit of data yet, but the atlanta fed gdp was cut in half, only at 1.2%. i really think they want to see a number like that. they want to see a calmer number on friday in the payroll report and most of all, they want to see inflation getting back on track to coming down. if those things come into play, then the market rally will be justified to the extend at which it's not reallying, because it is afraid of the fed. i also think that you want to watch the ten-year yield, and if that comes down and sort of goes back to where it was, i don't think that's going to happen. i will point out, jeff gunlack and scott wapner said maybe we're in the middle of a bond rally here, which is pretty interesting, because if it goes too far, it's going to be a problem. but we're at a certain range here, and i think it's going to be still continuing to restrain the economy. >> steve, tim. congrats on the psychology and the wordsmithing i thought you

did with chair powell. i don't think he falls for these things, but you basically asked him, isn't there still a hiking bias, and he said, that's the question i'm asking, which almost meant, this is where you get your dovish takeaway. if not for these higher rates, wouldn't this have been the dynamic, and wouldn't you say they would have had to have been leaning higher? because i believe you when you were asking that question that you believe that. >> here's the thing, tim. it's important to realize that my question was harkening back to the old ages, shows how old i am, and maybe how old you are, but you don't look it. >> thank you. that's very kind. >> these are the things, tim. greenspan used to give us a bias to policy. he said, we're here now, but our next move looks like it's likely to be this. i was trying to tease that out of powell. am i right in reading the statement as having that bias? he said, we don't do that anymore, but he kind of conceded that, yes, there is that bias in there. and i do think that -- he said

we have that bias, but he kept coming back to this idea of risks being more balanced. remember, that was in the extra hike this year, but he kind of said, you know what, we're going to do a new one in december, and he later said that as the sep ages, that is the sprotections, that becomes less accurate. >> steve, thank you. steve liesman, our senior economics reporter. mike, i'll go to you first, because the market reaction was fascinating, especially when you saw volatility just collapse during that fed press conference. what was your takeaway from this? >> i think powell got a little bit lucky in the pmi data this morning. had he been on the dovish side and you had a strong pmi print, i think you would have seen a very different reaction from rates today. you know, at the end of the day, you want the fed to be somewhat hawkish, because by being hawkish, the fed issaying,

we're going to control inflation expectations. so, if you are a buyer of 10, 20, 30-year paper, you want the fed to tighten monetary policy. so, he got a bit lucky today in the weak economic data. what i'm fearful for is if what happens if the economy starts to reaccelerate? and we started to see that. 4.9% gdp in q-3. and the market says, oh, wow, you know, to steve's point, powell was somewhat dovish. but growth is heating up. then you have a big bear steamening of the yield curve, that could be great for risk. >> he already knew that, so, i think this was almost g goldilocks. has the fed continued qt while they're cuts rates? >> they haven't had to. no, absolutely not. and this time around, they said they're going to. they're going to continue with balance sheet runoff, even while cutting rates, but we also think -- know that, you know, cutting rates isn't for quite some time. >> yeah, i thought that was an important point, and i think the bond market reacted like just

another leg stronger, when he definitively took that qt -- early exit of qt off the table. that was interesting, because i wanted to know how much was priced in there already. maybe some. because the reaction was kind of -- just another leg. >> yeah, i think the fed wants to normalize the balance sheet. i don't think this is a 2024-type story. i think this is going to be for the next ten years. you had a decade of monetary easing, and probably going to have a decade of balance sheet -- >> it's not just our central reserve, it's central banks around the world. the most important thing that happened today was the refunding announcement, and where they were rebunding. bill heavy, note and bond lighter, than expected. still heavy, because we have a huge deficit to finance. that was the 20-basis point almost intraday move. so, the entire curve felt it, even though we know that the fed is -- excuse me, the government

is going to go out there and have to finance a big budget deficit. that, to me, is what this is all about, and that, to me, is where fed powell is just kind of like sitting back on the sidelines. some of this is out of the fed's control, and on some level, it's good. agree with michael. we want this fed to stay the course. and the thing is, for equities right now we're not so sure -- i think equities over the last three weeks, especially with the backup in yields, was starting to wonder about that fed put, and that's what equities still need to grapple with. we want the fed to stay the course and equities still, i think -- >> i'm not sure. >> they did like it. equities like the move in rates. i'm not saying that equities today doubted the fed, and actually, or believe in the fed to cut. today was all about refunding. because, how much of the last 100 basis points was that announcement versus the last august refunding announcement? you can make an argument that a lot of this was technical. >> i agree, it was all about refunding. do we want the fed to stay

course? they only control the front end anyway. what are they doing in the back end anyway? >> yeah, well, listen, i mean, the only way they're going to control the back end is by slowing growth, right? the back end price is growth and inflation, but the way you control that is by slowing -- >> if you agree this was -- you have to agree that it was supply or demand issue shocks to the economy, whether it was pandemic, whether it was printing all the money they printed. monetary policy, fiscal policy, are colliding. >> well, i don't think anybody can say right now that monetary policy is too tight. we wouldn't have had 5% gdp if monetary policy was too tight. >> but in terms of the message, the context of this market right now, for equities, karen -- >> yeah. >> is this bullish going -- we've seen the lid on the ten-year yield which is good for equities. >> right. >> and we are sort of getting the all-clear for now.

>> it's just math, right? if we have a lower 10-year, 20-year, whatever you want to use to discount your cash flow, it's better. we still have the higher flyers, the igv kind of names, the mag knife sent seven, the high pes do better. but just one other thing, though, about the fed. it's -- you know, he's fighting this with one arm tied behind his back because of fiscal policy. it's just kind of ridiculous, he's out there on his little raft and they are just -- >> printing, printing. >> a tsunami of, you know, fiscal policy. >> so, suddenly -- first of all, the reaction to today's market, there's this fed cha-cha what, you know, from 2:00, 2:20, what happened at the end of the day, you judge it by 30-minute intervals. we went up 25 handles, we went down 25 handles. that was interesting. we're now 3.5% off the intradau l intraday lows on friday. with the fed having put a lid on

things. that, to me, is what equities want. we're going to talk about apple. we have a big kind of symbolic name tomorrow, with a lot of problems relative to china, but i do think this is very equity-friendly. >> our next guest says that the treasury refunding plan has opened the flood gates to buy all assets. let's bring in andy constand. you've been listening to the conversation where we said the market environment is there. how long do you think this trade lasts? >> yeah, so, melissa, the first thing i did today was look at the quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 and found that the bonds issuance for today, for this quarter, was being kept the same, and it's all about bonds. long duration assets that the private sector has to buy. but importantly, next quarter, they're only increasing the bond supply by 10 billion.

three months ago, when you had me on, they increased bond supply for this quarter by 160 billion, and that caused the s&p to fall 8%, ten-year yields rise 100 basis points. and so, today, this -- the supply is heavy, but it's going from 160 billion to only 10 billion. and asset prices have cheapened dramatically. and so, given that combination less, there's still plenty of supply, but less supply, and very cheap asset prices, i think assets are cheap now. and as sets can rally and maybe a false dawn through year-end, but you know, that's sort of -- the way i put together the supply issue. >> so, in terms of -- you're long stocks. in terms of being long bonds, is it time to go long duration at this point? or do you see value, do you see, you know, a move higher in all

parts of the curve? >> yeah, so -- actually, the thing i find most interesting is the rally in the two-year. that's the one that didn't make sense to me. but in terms of long duration, i was short 30-year bonds, i covered them right on the open. and then they rallied 16, 15 basis points or so, and i think they have another 15 to 20 basis points to go. so, i do think the 30-year is interesting. the two-year rallying doesn't make a lot of sense to me, for many of the reasons you all mentioned, which is, if bonds and -- long-term bonds and stocks both rally, the fed's going to have to hike more. and that's going to hit the two-year. so, i think the two-year rallying is the most odd bit of this -- of this day today. powell was hawkish, the qra relieved some of the pressure on long-term assets. and yet, the two-year rallied such that there's about 95 basis points of cuts priced into 2024,

and the fed only expects 50. >> why did you think powell was hawkish? we just had steve liesman on who, you know, endured the whole press conference, live and in person, and he walked out with a dovish message. >> yeah, i mean, i think basically -- the bottom line is, i think he was right down the middle of exactly where he is normally been, which is focusing on inflation, not convincing the market that there could be one more hike, but we're going to pause for a long time, and i didn't get anything new, you know, steve's the expert, so, i defer to him. >> andy, it's karen, thanks for being on today. nice job getting out in the morning of your shorts. what do you think is more attractive now, you know, the equity markets or the bond markets? >> well, i think they both can rally 2%, 3%, maybe from here. maybe to 4,400 on the s&p, maybe you get 4%. but you know, we still have the

same problems in that we do have $720 billion of quantitative tightening to deal with each year. we do have -- it's likely that the treasury's going to have to increase issuance again. so, i don't think we're going to run away on the upside. and, you know, there's lots of problems. but at the same time, at this stage, the duration overhang has been lifted, and that should lift assets, you know, call it 3%, 5%. >> andy, great to see you, thank you. >> sure. >> andy constan. you agree, michael? >> i agree with some of what andy had to say. there's a couple things i would note. one is on the equity side, i think what today did is just remove an overhang and allows the market to start focusing on earnings. we are in the middle of earnings season, and that's going to be the more important driver. and the second thing in regards to andy, listen, we've been in an upward trend on yields not just since the treasury announced larger issuance.

we've been in an upward trend dating back to july. what else happened in july in the fed cut back on the pace of their hikes, they skipped meetings. just as when economic growth, inflation started to bubble up again. so, there's certainly a component of this move higher in yields that have been more technical related, japanese yield curve control or refunding, you know, bill issuance, et cetera, but there's a big part that's quite frankly economic growth. >> sounds like people got too negative on equities, too negative on bonds, and now with the issuance coming maybe back in line or backing off to what we thought it was going to be, and you have a seasonality bullish time of year, you probably have -- i was about to say all-clear and you were going to come down on me and ask tim if the market is -- >> tim, do you think steve's all-clear is accurate? well, mel, i think -- i think the collar is another ingredient here, and again, it's a perception, the dollar will sniff out whether the fed was or was not today, when you have the

boj dynamics and you have what's going on, i think the dollar is going to help. coming up, a wage wipeout. shares of paycom bringing the whole space down along with it. what the weak outlook could mean ahead of friday's big jobs report. but first, solar edge and qualcomm. solaredge tumbles, qualcomm jumps. the numbers next. mo "stwhe.nyer refa money" until two.

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through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "fast money." big night of earnings movers. check out some of the stocks making monster moves after the bell. we start off with solaredge. shares getting slammed after the company missed on the top and bottom lines, posted very weak q-4 guidance. let's get to pippa stephens with more. >> shares are dropping 23% after the company disappointed against already lowered expectations. less than two weeks ago, they released preliminary results pointing to a slowdown and still disappointed. the call kicking off a bit ago and the ceo addressing it right off the top, saying they are going through, quote, challenging times, in terms of general market dynamics, and specific inventory trends related to their products. now, europe especially is an issue. last year, demand skyrocketed on

the back of russia's invasion of ukraine. and the company thought demand would continue in 2023, but it hasn't. which means distributors are working through excess inventory and not buying as much. and there's no clear turnaround in sight, and for the current quarter, solaredge expects gross margin to be between 5% and 8%. that's down from more than 30% just two quarters ago. melissa? >> pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. this -- i mean, i don't know what even to say about this, if they warned -- and they moved a lot on the back of that warning two weeks ago and here they are yet again. >> that -- i don't know what's wrong there, because if you make an announcement like they p preannounced less than two weeks, maybe two weeks ago, put everything in there, the entire kitchen sink, anything you can find, put it in there and do it once. because then you have some credibility left. and unfortunately, when this happens, now -- or things are deteriorating so rapidly that they couldn't even see that

coming. neither of those two are good. >> no, but each bit of news takes the next one down. and, you know, we've heard all about what's been going on in europe and now even those manufacture of u.s. modules are coming under pressure, so, i don't -- you know, what's interesting is the analyst community hasn't been able to catch their breath on this. you've been seeing the gap down reassessments and eps downgrades, and i think there's more coming. at some point, solar always overshoots. the problem is, you're going to need some secular and macro changes to get people excited again. >> there's a little bit of differentiation. we had first solar out, the much more the utility side of the business. >> numbers are okay. >> they did okay during the session, but we have sun ron coming out afterhours, the residential side of the business and they are down 5%. >> yeah, this group, it's very hard to predict when you have -- they're reliant on subsidies at this point, still in the phase, that all these companies are. so, you can't -- you can't look and project out models when

you're basing it on government funding and subsidies. there's too many variables. when you look at the stock, down 73% year to date. it's impossible to see where the next catalyst is going to come from and it's impossible to see what the next political party is going to give in subsidies. we're in an election year cycle. let's move onto qualcomm. the chip company beating on the top and bottom lines, issuing a strong outlook. let's get to kristina partsinevelos for more. >> this strong outlook and beat comes despite a global slowdown in smartphone shipments in q-3. you had management saying on the call right now, they are seeing, quote, early signs of stabilization in demand for global 3g, 4g, and 5g smartphones with strength coming from greater china, which could bode well for apple's earnings. in early september, qualcomm announced they would continue to supply apple with phone chips for the next three years. that apple deal helping their

handset revenue beat and also pretty much a testament to qualcomm's chips. even apple can't recreate them. if we're speaking about auto, the auto segment beat. and also contributed more to total revenue, so, it's growing. qualcomm recently announced an x-elite pc chip based on arm technology. their cpu chip exceeds the performance of x-86 chips, so that means maybe they can steal market share. the new cpu is going to be available in mid 2024, but a lot of support from microsoft. kqualcomm shares up 3%. >> okay, kristina, thank you. tim, good news for smartphones? >> it's okay news for smartphones. may be okay news for qualcomm. this is a case where, again, the exposure they have to samsung, they're going to be aprimary customer on the galaxy s-24. they also point out here, i'm

just reading, they expect that huawei's re-entry into the smartphone market is not really going to impact their relationship with other players. and that's good. because there's some sense that huawei is going to be a thorny kind of relationship for suppliers. we've talked about this. this is their ability to side-step a lot of the u.s. sanctions. chinese oems are growing 35% in terms of their sequential growth and that's good news. almost seems like they're coming back to life a little bit. >> how much of an indicator are semiconductors for you? >> they are a pretty good indicator. it's a, you know, big cyclical area of the economy, and we have to focus on that around this time of year, see what's going on with cyclicality, what's going on with economic growth and likely earnings growth, so, we definitely look at semis and sort of the whole sector to get that sort of indication. >> this is not the sexy part of the semiconductor market. amd is up 66%, you have that a.i. chip probably that tailwind there. you don't have that with

qualcomm. qualcomm is a better read on the economy, or smartphones directly, but it's not a better read on semiconductors. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. payday is usually a happy time. but not for these stocks. the huge drop in one payroll name, and the waves it is sending throughout the space. all ahead of a key jobs report on friday. plus, concerning china. companies raising the red flag and pointing to rough times ahead, as china's rebound falters. but someone on the desk says now might be the time to buy. they lay out their case after this. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. not only our customers but those who matter most to them. just like our company does for us.

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welcome back to "fast money." a few more earnings movers. shares of clorox cleaning up, posting a strong revenue beat. the company noting in august, a cyber attack caused widescale disruptions. meantime, mondelez moving higher on a top and bottom line beat. the snack company raising their full-year organic revenue guidance. and when i saw this, karen, about mondelez, i thought of you and -- >> yeah, a little bit today. a big rally like, you know, high multiples are good, it's going to lag a little bit, but ridiculously cheap. >> i'd just say that a lot of the staple stocks were suffering as rates were going higher, because they are seen as yield plays and at least correlated to slower growth, higher rates. so today in a bond market helped them. let's get to paycom shares getting a big pay cut.

the payroll stock having its worst day ever, plummeting more than 38% after reporting a miss on revenue, issuing a weak sales outlook for next year. the drop pulling other related stocks along with it. moves coming ahead of friday's big jobs report. michael, what do you expect here? is this going to be a big tell here? are we going to start seeing weakness? >> listen, i think at some point you have to start seeing weakness. i would -- i don't know if it's going to be this month or next month or into 2024, but certainly, i think you've seen labor starting to weaken, right? we're actually seeing that in a lot of the surveys, you see it. we don't see it so much in the jobless claims day tashgs but you do see it in a lot of the survey data that's out there, small business hiring, hours worked. so, warn notices skyrocketed, that tends to be an early warning signal. i do think you'll see weakness. if it's friday or next month or the following, i'm not sure, but this is clearly a little bit of a red herring. >> yeah, these stocks are

telegraphing at least concerns that the softening is coming and that will result in lower revenue, lower billing for these particular companies. workday, paychecks, adp, these were all weak on the back of paycom. and last week, korn ferry announced layoffs. so, the sector is saying a pull-back. >> it is. i think some of this is also just tied to the ancillary businesses, a lot of these companies have as they get into consumer finance or they are either, you know, having people lend against some of these dynamics. i think there's a big dynamic there. i agree, probably at peak labor. but it's fascinating, because if you look at the last three payroll numbers, we've got payroll on friday, they've averaged about 270,000 jobs added. for an economy that people thought was going to be subtracting jobs. if you didn't have an increase in the participation rate, we would be art record unemployment right now. >> we have geopolitical, it's been negative, so, people pull back on their budgeting, so, i

think that was an overlay why people were starting to pull back. also, i think i read a line in paycom they were focused on smaller businesses. those smaller businesses are more like little to have issues, as rates rise. so, it's not -- i don't think it should be a blanket testimony on all of the space. >> i think that's a really good point. i think the business mix is important, and i also think that as profits do accelerate, you know, you can see hiring potentially, you know, level out. maybe at a lower level though. coming up, china concerns weighin ing on earnings. could now be the time to buy the weakness? we'll dig into that trade next. and we're watching more afterhours action. shares of zillow on the move after reporting. the numbers from that quarter when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the. followhe "ston tfa mey" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing just off their highs of the day. the dow rising more than 200 points for its highest close in nearly two weeks. the s&p up over a percent.

the nasdaq leading the gains, up for a fourth day in a row. shares of cvs closing well off their lows of the day after its earnings report this morning. the company beat estimates for the quarter, but posted higher medical costs at its insurance unit. higher than expected. the stock was down 7% earlier in the day. a couple more afterhours movers. airbnb down. the travel company giving weaker than expected guidance. etsy lower after a revenue miss. doordash jumping. the company beating on the top and bottom lines and giving strong guidance. elf and ea higher after beating expectations. karen, cvs. >> yes. one i don't own anymore, but i definitely watch. the medical cost ratio, which is how much of each dollar they have to spend to pay medical costs, that -- that's not a good thing. so, that was -- that was a beat to the wrong way. also, you know, there's just been so much pressure, if you look at walgreens, on -- there's fears about the cvs stores, you know, the consumer part of the

business, so, it is cheap, for sure, but you have a lot of business cobbled together. it just -- i kind of just gave up. >> all right. meantime, estee lauder, yum china and khanna ga goose, the latest companies to call out china's lackluster economic recovery. all three pointing out soft consumer demand that continues to weigh on sales abroad. those stocks dropping sharply in today's session with estee lauder notching its worst day on record, and with apple set to post results after the bell tomorrow, wall street is bracing for the impact. still, our next guest says china's weaker economic picture could be the new norm. leyland miller, ceo of china beige book. great to have you with us. how bad do you think it gets? do you think it sort of just muddles along, the chinese economy? >> well, i think you said it right. this is the new norm. the mistake that a lot of investors are making right now is thinking, well, you know, we've had some bad times, but this will bottom, things will go back up again, there is no way

xi jinping will allow the economy to cruise at such low levels, we learned over the years that, you know, the chinese communist party loves stimulus and high levels of growth, so, we have to wait this out. all that is wrong. right now, we're in a new paradigm in terms of chinese economic growth. it's a structural slowdown. you are going to see cyclical ups and downs. right now, we're in a period where everything is looking pretty bad. consumer spending is slowing down. and conditions got worse from september to october, so there's a lot of pressure on the economy right now. >> why is there no pressure on president xi? why is there no pressure on the communist party to help things along? why they are so willing to have crackdowns on foreign and domestic corporations to the detriment of their own markets? >> well, you know, years ago, the idea used to be that there was a social compact between, you know, the party and the people. and the party said, we will give you high levels of growth and we will make you rich. and in return, you support us. those days are over. the new social compact is, we

will deliver slower, healthier growth. we will distribute, you know, the riches, the wealth more broadly. you know, we -- we can't continue to run the other model down, because there's too much bad debt in the system. there's too much friction. and weapon need to be focusing on what's really important, which is national security, which is making sure the economy is more robust and protected against problems abroad. so, you know, the mind-set of the party's changed. there's been an acceptance of a lower growth model. the party is not worried about high levels of growth. they are not worried about stimulated periods of weakness. >> leyland, it's tim. what does this then mean for the cap x and the spend and the growth that's being sunk into china or has been sunk by u.s. firms starbucks, ralph lauren, we talk about apple all the time. this was the story for anyone with a brand going to that part of the world. are you seeing that pull-back now? >> well, a lot of firms are quite frankly stuck, because for

years and years, the idea has been, we just have to keep sinking money into the economy, and eventually you're going to hit critical mass and then you'll be able to both do well and get your money out. i think there's a problem with that right now. so, firms are -- some firms are leaving. some are decoupling their supply chains. others are doubling down. i think there's a lot of different strategies out there. but what it does mean, there is more pressure on foreign firms right now than there has ever been before and the trend is getting worse, not better. so, if you are there, you better know what you're doing. >> in terms of the next sort of catalyst for u.s./china relations, what are you looking forward? president xi and president biden are supposed to have some talks. >> yeah, look, the talks are good in that they set some sort of floor on the relationship, so hopefully it doesn't collapse. but look, we're on the cusp of 2024, and 2024 is going to be a tough year. you have the taiwan presidential election, the u.s. presidential ele election, none of this is going to be particular for u.s./china relations.

you have a global economic slowdown. you have a lot of other issues with china's domestic economy. there's just a lot of pressure on china's economy right now. and so, the idea is, you know, hopefully things don't get worse, but the pressures in the relationship are building. despite talks. they're not being eased. >> leyland, thank you. good to see you. >> pleasure. >> all right. after all that, i mean, it sounds like a terrible picture that leyland is painting of china, yet michael, you say, buy china. why? >> i do say buy china. we don't buy unemployment, we don't buy, you know, political relations with taiwan or russia. we buy stocks. that's what we do. and earnings growth in china is actually accelerating and it's going positive. there are very few markets in the world, even in the u.s., if you look at earnings growth, it's still negative. in china, earnings growth is accelerating and positive. on top of that, right, the pboc is likely to add liquidity to

the system. we'll see how much liquidity, but they're going to add it in the system, and valuations are incredibly attractive. this is the second cheapest market in the world, and everybody hates it. >> when you look at a -- both down in the last three months, over 30%, when you look at alibaba down 70%. i agree, if you are bottom fishing or looking for valuation, because it is the cheapest. i wonder if you could make the correlation between when they're weak financially or economically, they're loud gio politically, because that seems to be the case to me, what i'm hearing out of china, at least where taiwan is concerned, that's the biggest threat. >> first of all, i admire the call, i actually think that china's growth is going to be higher than expected in the second half. i like exposure to macao. i know what's going on, i know what's going on with gdr, in the better segments. as someone that's been investing in emerging markets a lot of my career, i always say, though,

you can't invest in a bad neighborhood. it doesn't really matter if you're picking out great stocks, because i think more than 60% of your profile's coming from kind of that top down. or the currency. now, i want to believe in your call, and i think the sentiment on china is as low as we have ever seen, and at times on this show, we've said, china is uninvestable and we've seen a rally. i'm just curious, cheap versus the macro, which is more compelling? >> and ask i add to this? you've been positive on china the entire year. >> we have been. we were probably early to china, so, certainly acknowledge that. yeah, the recovery post-covid, when they reopened the economy, was not as strong as it was in the u.s. i think that took us a little bit by surprise. with that said, i mean, listen, economic growth in china is not that bad. i think it's -- you know, we just got huge applause in the u.s. for growing at 4.9% in q-3. guess what china's growth is? roughly about the same. >> who says? >> i think it's higher than

that. >> are you saying china equities? are you saying companies -- >> china equities. chinese equities. yeah. >> okay. >> yeah. and the profit growth is there. remember, and i think that's what we go back to. china reminds me very much to the united states in 2009. what was the narrative around the united states in 2009? that it was uninvestable, the fed was pumping the system full of liquidity, just like the pboc will be doing, and earnings growth started to accelerate. similar story. coming up, stranger things are not happening for netflix. the streamer out with a big blocbuster number today that sent wall street cheering. details ahead. but first, zillow on the move. we'll unpack their earnings report next. more "fast money" in two.

welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on zillow. the real estate stock taking a leg up in the last few minutes. the company posting a top and bottom line beat. lowering revenue guidance for q-4, as mortgage rates remain high. the company also saying in a letter to shareholders it believes the $1.8 billion lawsuit involving the national association of realtors making headlines yesterday will likely be tied up in court for years.

so, maybe no impact yet for zillow. what do you think? >> well, they -- zillow is not a party to this in any way. nor any of the other suits. >> sure. >> the question is, is there going to be pressure on brokers -- >> to not advertise. >> well, that's their customer, right? is there customer pressured? but -- so, the quarter was good. just, the guidance was a little light. the bigger problem, the far bigger problem, i think, is that because we're in this sort of stalemate of -- >> no velocity of sales. >> yeah, the more velocity of sales, the better for them. what they have done, they've accelerated in the rental space a lot. that's been good, but it pales in comparison to the rest of their business. that's what's really weighing on zillow. i love this asset-light model. they made that foray in and out of buying homes. i like it, but it's been tough sledding. it will be for a little while. >> do you think housing will remain durable, the market? >> you know, i think it can hold

up better than people expect. there's -- obviously, a shortage of housing throughout the country. supply and demand favors the asset class. and everybody's locked in low rates. and so, no one's really moving, which furthers that dynamic. so, i think housing can stay stronger than, you know, stronger for longer. >> paul today on cnbc said low marriage rates, it creates, you know, rent stabilized apartments all over the country, because people -- have locked in such low rates that their cost to live is low, so, new york city, rent stabilized, rents are kept lower, so housing costs to the consumer remain low. >> for now. >> for now. and maybe for a long time, depending on how long the rates are locked in for. >> you saw mortgage rates double and you haven't seen any real impact to the price of homes. in theory, the price of a home should have been cut in half. obviously, the world doesn't work that way, but i think mortgage rates have to substantially become lower than

where they are now, maybe 5%, 5.5%? and i don't think anyone on this table has any clue how quick that's going to happen, but i think the whole segment is going to be challenged until mortgage rates fall substantively. >> well, i agree that housing prices -- i just think that they have to come down. and i realize that that's not a consensus view right now. i just look at the things that drove housing higher, and think about covid. think about the dynamics there. i realize there are bigger picture things like baby boomers and demographics and buying that second home, but the reality is, the housing market was goosed by a combo of covid and then also interest rates, at one point, we were at 56 on the ten-year, bips, that is. so, mortgage rates for people getting in there around 2.5%. houses aren't worth as much. coming up, a blockbuster day for netflix. the giant tripling its ad-supported tier users. we'll dive into the numbers.

"fast money" is back in two.

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nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "fast money." roku ripping higher, following a big revenue beat. upbeat fourth quarter guidance. the stock down nearly 80% over the last two years. netflix rolling out the red carpet for a blockbuster number today. its ad-supported tier now has 15 million global active users. triple what it reported in may.

netflix saying it will roll out knew features over the coming months, including hikgher qualiy streaming and different ad formats. the stock moved, it didn't move as much necessarily at some of its memegacap peers, but it was positive. >> it was. six weeks ago, that executive at netflix said we're having trouble, it's harder than we thought. they had an executive change. this seems like a pretty quick d turnaround for that. netflix is never great at sort of estimating where they're going to be. >> true. >> with that subscriber beat, that was huge. i'm long netflix. it is not cheap. it deserves a premium. the question is, exactly how much, i don't know, but i'm staying long. >> i'm not long netflix. i hope to get it lower. have been long, and i think the fact 100 million borrowers out there that are being converted, and they're doing this with the ad-supported, where we're now seeing everyone else in streaming coming onboard with that model.

netflix, ahead of everybody else, and this is so accretive to earnings. and back to free cash flow. there's no one even close to them. no one's got free cash flow, it's a cash burn on streaming. they'll have $6 to $8 billion. >> this is good news or bad news for the other streamers with ad-supported tiers? >> i think it's bad news. i think to tim's point, it's netflix and everybody else, and everybody else doesn't seem to have the ability to make any money. the tailwinds for netflix were the ad tier, the password sharing, the writers' strike. now, we've come to the end of a lot of those. the ad -- the ad income is obviously still elongated for me. it was an obvious short when it was at 450. i was wrong. so, i think that you are better off being a seller versus a buyer at these levels. >> up next, final trades.

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michael? >> i like 2.5% real yields. i'm going with tips. >> tim? >> japanese stocks ripping. mufj bank. >> karen? >> yes, morgan stanley. >> steve? >> wrk. huge upside. >> thanks for watching. see you tomorrow. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. mad money start now. >> hey, cramer, wellcome to mad money. my job is not just to entertain but teach you. so call me or tweet me. you know. this is a what have you done for mow lately kind of market. we all know that. today is a day where