available tomorrow. this isn't generative a.i. just isolating his voice. >> what we're hearing is not the song. >> you're hearing his voice and the other instrument. you're not hearing the piano part. >> you heard the actual song? >> i haven't. it's like erasing something in photoshopping. >> are you a beatle -- >> i love the bateeatles. >> "closing bell" starts now. all right, kel, thanks so much. i'm scott wapner live from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with stocks on the run big time and apple earnings just ahead in just a few minutes, star analyst dan ives will tell us what is likely to happen, how shares could react. your score card about 60 minutes to go in regulation, that post-federally going strong. the s&p now going for its fourth straight positive day, been a nice broad move, every sector today on the upswing. take a look at how much green is on the map today.

small caps, they're sizzling. the russell, 2.24%. the nasdaq going for its best week of the year as megacap tech is mostly higher and even some of the growthier tech names like palintir, roku and shopify here. interest rates are a major story. look at the ten-year yield as well, it continues to fall. take a look, $4.67, right around the lowest level in about three weeks. it takes us to our talk of the tape. the critical apple report, questions about the iphone and china looming large and just the shares have started to climb again. is the worst now behind the stock? it's a key question. let's ask wedbush's dan ives that question. he joins us here post 9. what a difference a week makes, you know, you could have said, wow, the stock looks terrible in a downtrend. here we are pacing for five up day, the best days since august 30th above the 200-day moving

average. >> i'm expecting talk on china to be actually positive. what we're seeing in china, i'm not saying it hasn't slowed since preorders but seeing stabilization and i think demand from her perspective is actually going to show growth, especially going into the next quarters. that's what it's about in terms of whisper expectations that have come down. i think investors are viewing this in a glass half empty sort of view and i think that's the wrong move. >> you don't believe the hype that huawei has been taking market share from apple in china? >> i think 100 bits of market share maybe incremental. i just got back from asia yesterday and in my opinion, you're still seeing growth from a china perspective and the most important thing, scott, that it is in terms of the pro, we think it will be 80% this time in china, a year ago it was 60%. that asp is important going into the december quarter. >> is this the quarter where we

finally reverse the year-on-year quarterly revenue declines? three in a row from 5 1/2%. are we back positive. >> we're back towards positive and -- >> what's toward positive? we were toward positive last quarter. >> 1% in terms of what we'll see but i think the important thing what everyone is focused on is december guidance. we think 5% incremental year-over-year and as you talked about that's important because you see unit growth from an iphone perspective and services, which i view as really the golden goose in terms of the valuation. that's now back to double digits, so i think clearly there will be some caution from a macro perspective but i just -- we're not seeing any of the number cuts come from the supply chain in china, which is why we sit here and we're bullish. >> you're not worried at all about guidance about the holiday quarter, because others on the street who cover the stock are, even ones who are really bullish

like eric woodring at morgan stanley. he's overweight the stock but here's what he told me the other day on the set. >> when we think about earnings on thursday and the potential for apple to guide the december quarter slightly below consensus numbers it's thesis changing, no. but tactically given what we've talked about in terms of the setup, i think it makes me more cautious. >> okay. don't call him a hater because he's not. he is overweight on the stock. what do you make of that? >> i think whisper expectations are already expecting softness here and i think when it comes down to it, you'll have iphone unit growth probably 4%, 5% so i think the december quarter, he's talking about definitely fears about cautious really more negative commentary from cook around china. i think there could be maybe a sprinkling of caution but overall positive and i think that's the important thing going into the quarter. >> what happens if there is, in your words, a sprinkling of caution around a stock that hasn't traded all that well over

the last few months at all despite what the last few days have brought us? >> i think the new york city cab drivers bearish on apple relative to the china fear, the shadow ban, you know, the last few months, it's really been a massive overhang. >> smartphones have been weak, not just -- we're not just talking apple, more broadly. are you assuming that's trough, that's done, now we're back towards growth? >> i think what qualcomm has talked about, the smartphone recovery is starting here and i think we go back three, six months from now, the trough and the worst is in the rearview mirror in terms of what we're seeing in terms of china, i'm not saying that's not going to be sprinkled in in terms of some negative, but overall what they're seeing in china, i think, this is something where apple is actually going to be surprised at the upside when we look at the next two, three quarters. >> let's bring in joe terranova and malcolm etheridge. both are cnbc contributors and

both own the stock. joe, are you as optimistic as mr. ives is? >> i'm optimistic when you look at positioning, because positioning, specifically in the options market, is suggesting a very bearish sentiment towards apple. the put to call skew right now is in the 80th percentile favoring puts. that's an extreme level that we have not witnessed. let's also remember what scott introduced earlier in the conversation, the technicals, the technicals on this stock just four days ago looked awful. so you have very bearish sentiment. let's remember this does matter to the market. the august earnings report, the stock was above 190. after that earnings report it went below 90. never got back there again and the market followed through with a pretty ugly quarter. so this is going to be critical. and if, in fact, you are correct and we see a better than expected earnings report from apple, guess what? the chase for performance begins

tomorrow morning. >> does it matter to you, though, that the chart over the last few days -- i mean, look, it's up 6 plus percent in a week, so the whole dynamic going into the number is completely changed. we said before, wow, the stock looks horrible. it's trading down into earnings which rarely happens. the whole story always is, wow, apple is running into the numbers, they're going to be a sell on the news. well, in the last five days, we've reversed the whole story. now it's running into the print again. so how do you make due with that. >> you asked me initially if i had the same optimism that dan has. i hadn't answered that. i laid out the bullish scenario. now the bearish scenario, quite candidly, i'm not sure what to expect here. will the services business, will the cash flow be strong enough to maybe overcome the weakness in china? maybe the weakness surrounding the iphone 15? but really i believe what we're

going to hear from apple tonight is we're going to take the temperature, i believe, of the true economy. this is really going to tell you what the state of the economy is, and if, in fact, apple misses tonight, well then i think your expectation has to be that the stock itself will be on the retreat and the bearish technical since august will take over once again and i think it's an indicator for you of where, in fact, the economy is going to go over the coming quarters. >> so malcolm sold half of his position in the middle of may when it was at 174, so now we said we're at 177 1/2. what do we think? what do we think about the stock? i asked at the top of the program if we think the worst is now behind this stock. at least for the near term period. how do you answer that question. >> yes, so i told you i was going to sell half my apple position and half my microsoft position at that time because i thought the market had gotten a little overblown and i know you

thought i was crazy but today looking at it with apple up something like 2% the last six months i feel like i didn't miss out on anything. it's pretty much come full circle so i'm not necessarily as bullish as dan and sounds like joe t. is as well near term on apple. right? this is not a trade, one my kid will probably inherit so i'm long-term bullish on apple but in the next 12 months i think they have work to do and have a not necessarily just a china problem but i think they have an iphone problem in the sense that they have to diversify a way from 50 plus percent of their product mix, of their revenue mix being the iphone, that to me is one of the biggest existential threats to apple and to joe's point about this giving us an idea directly of where the consumer stands, i don't know that it necessarily tells us as much about the consumer as it used to in the sense that the cycle for replacement on iphones has gotten more and more extended than it used to be so we can't necessarily predict automatically everybody who owns

an iphone is going to be willing to upgrade every two years when they come out with the next new one and i will say that with the perspective of a person who is still holding an iphone 8 so do with that what you will. >> why do they have to diversify from their bread and butter product -- hang on. between the other hardware devices they have come out with and then how big the services business has grown to, why do they have to do that? >> the biggest exist tension threat to me as it relates to apple is not china, it's actually the day that a t-mobile, verizon or at&t decides that they're going to worry about their own business and they're no longer interested in subsidizing the cost of every person would wants to upgrade to that next new iphone. to me, the moment one of those companies comes out and says we're making a change to that, it's over. that's 50% of their market share so right now they enjoy being the largest company by market cap at something like $2.6 trillion. that gets whacked in half the moment one of those ceos from

one of those big three cell phone carriers says you're on your own, scott. we won't subsidize you go to the iphone 17, 18, 19, 20? >> you want to respond? >> people have been saying that and malcolm raises a great point. really for the last decade look at the carriers within the u.s., this is the golden goose in terms of apple, 4t for verizon -- >> you don't see it happening? >> we don't. carrier discounts are increasing because ultimately 250 million right now have not upgraded their phone in four plus years. that is the opportunity and that's why it's the best install based in the world from a consumer perspective. >> how do you want to adjust that, joe? it's to dan's point the argument it's the most powerful installed base for a consumer. >> without question. >> product company ever. arguably. >> and the retention is, you know, insane above 90%. so i do think, though, i do

think that it's critical in terms of understanding where the economy is. i disagree with what malcolm is saying. one reason why, if this is going to be a weak holiday season and if consumers are going to be affected with their buying intentions, i don't see how a tesla, right, a tesla can be so impacted by the increase in rates, by the increase in the economic environment and then we could say, okay, well, you look at a consumer-facing company like apple and we're going to dismiss the economic impact of what might be unfolding, so i think this really is going to tell us something about the holiday season, about where we're going to be as we move forward into the coming quarters and, again, the way you overcome that is the services business and the usage of cash. i don't know what they'll do with their cash, what they'll do with their buyback but that's the way you overcome it. if you can overcome it, then i think malcolm has done the right thing in selling half his position. the stock is in a place right now where it's sitting on the

fence. it could go either direction but it's got to be that services business and the cash and savings. >> i feel like that's a little over the top suggesting apple is this great read on where the overall economy is. apple -- first of all, the economy has been really, really strong for the last year, right, at least. ale revenues have declined every quarter over that period of time. the iphone has been up and do you know and told us nothing about the broader strength of the u.s. economy whatsoever so why is it going to now? >> now you have new products that are being launched. you have the holiday season which is typically the strongest quarter for apple and if apple is telling you that they have muted expectations for that holiday season, isn'tthat a direct read-through for what the overall holiday season is going to look like? >> i don't know that it's a one-to-one compare san between an upgrade cycle for a new phone when people already have phones versus if they're not upgrading that somehow a statement on the weak economy. >> i think you have to look at

it from the perspective, though, of this is the quarter. the holiday quarter is supposed to be the best quarter for apple. and if they're -- if they're telling you that quarter is not going to be a strong quarter, what's the signal? what's the message there? just dismiss that? i don't think you can. >> i'm not dismissing it but also not willing to make some broad brush comment about the overall economy based on what they say about demand for the new iphone. i don't know. malcolm, a.i., it's the one thing we haven't talked about yet. what do you want to hear from apple, if anything? it's the one company that really hasn't given you anything to this point, right? they're being deliberate, patient, they're going to get it right, most people think it's around siri. do you need more definitive information today or not? >> yeah, so leave it to apple to provide us with a more elegant solution on their time line, right? that's pretty much what the expectation is for around a.i. but to joe t.'s point. he was alluding to the amount of cash apple has on its balance

sheet, something like $166 billion in cash and cash equivalents that, you know, if they park it in treasuries it will provide them with a really nice yield and that's all they have to do but i want to hear about how the company is going to innovate itself out of this rut that it's been in and whether they're going to work -- you've heard me make the case for them to push further into fintech, for example, right? are we going to get a new partnership to replace goldman sachs or something in the world of connected fitness, maybe? companies like peloton that were once covid darlings that are now cast out that they could pick up for pennies on the dollar so i'd like to see apple become really innovative with the dollars they do have sitting on the surveillance on their balance sheet as well as finding ways to integrate a.i. into their product set and impress us with the ways that they can make siri make us more efficient and tell us to do things we didn't even know we wanted to do. >> what do you think about a.i.? what are we going to get? when are we going to get it, and what it's going to mean? >> june is where you'll get it. that's where they'll start the

a.i. app store that i view as laying it out to the consumers and that can the opportunity for them. in terms of -- >> wdc -- >> yeah, that's where they ultimately lay it out in terms of the a.i. app store. when i look at vision pro, it's really just the start in terms of courting developers and i believe a year from now we have an a.i. app store that is within the ecosystem. >> a year from now, joe, are investors patient enough to wait for more answers on a.i.? >> i think so. i don't see any reason why they shouldn't be. they've been rewarded in certain circumstances in select stocks year to date. i think it's one of the stronger thesis why you could be bullish equities in 2024. >> no surprise up tim cook's sleeve about an acquisition of any kind related to a.i. or something else, is there? >> i don't believe but we've talked about it. even for a company that's never done m&a outside its 3 billion we believe for the first time i

think espn, i continue to view that as sort of that would really be the trophy case for them to look at espn asset, because from a live sports perspective, unique and we think 30, 40 billion they could easily do ha. >> what probability would you put on that? >> 30% to 40% probability that they're seriously looking at it in terms of the opportunity and if anything at a minimum is strong partnership, but i believe for the first time maybe ever they're going to significantly look at a larger deal here. >> wow, okayle we'll make that the last word, dan, joey, thank you, malcolm, to you, as well. thanks, we'll talk soon. our question of the day. where will apple trade first? closer to 190 or closer to $160 maybe last week you'd have answered this question differently. i don't know but answer it today, head to @cnbcclosingbell to vote. let's get a check on top stocks.

kristina is here with that. >> roku soaring 30.5%. yes, after posting a 20% increase in revenue for the third quarter. even though it came in higher than expected. its branded tvs and strong performance in content distribution and video advertising helped drive those revenues. canadian e-commerce firm shopify is seeing shares jump over 22% right now after an earnings beat and strong forecast for the rest of the year. the total number of merchandise sold which is an important metric for a lot of retailers on the platform grew by 22% during the quarter. also during the quarter shopify announced a partnership with amazon that allowed store merchants free prime deliveries. shares up 22.5%. scott. >> all right, kristina, thank you. appreciate it very much. we're just getting started. up next, stocks are popping big time. we're at the highs of the day, more than 500 point, 525, in fact. jpmorgan asset management's g

gabriela santos will be here with us. live from the new york stock exchange, you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. what do you see on the horizon?

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stocking rallying across the beard today, the s&p and dow both on track now for their biggest weekly gains of the year. let's bring in gabriela santos of jpmorgan asset management. welcome back. >> nice to see you. >> are the markets getting this

right? did they get what the fed chair said correct? >> ithink so. i think what the fed chair officially communicated was that there's still a hawkish state of mind but the market is right to interpret several dovish signals he sent as a sign to reduce expectations for another rate hike and to increase then the probability that the fed is really done raising rates. >> do you think they're done? >> we're hope they're done and do think the odds have risen since yesterday that they're done and that's because of several things he said. chair powell mentioned third quarter's very elevated growth but mentioned forecasts are for that to slow down. he also cited several improvements in the supply side of the economy be it the jobs market or productivity that we got this morning that means that resilient growth doesn't have to mean inflation pressure. and then lastly, he cited risks including the tightening of financial conditions. so we do think he could have pushed back against expectations

for no more hikes. >> he didn't. he had the chance to do it on multiple occasions and didn't. given all that, has the equity position improved as a result. >> i think this very broad-based recovery we're seeing in the market yesterday and today signals how crucial this question of interest rates has been for every corner of the market. and the fed is a piece of it. this uncertainty about the risk of rates going higher and uncertainty about what a neutral rate is. i think we got a little bit more clarity about that yesterday. what also happened yesterday was the question about the term premium and the move that we had seen in long-end rates since july and what we heard is maybe there's a little bit less uncertainty about treasury issuance going forward and that the treasury is listening and got a positive surprise with less issuance of long end treasury, especially ten-year, 30-year bonds so less uncertainty in general about the cost of capital means, you can have a little more conviction

about investing not just in interest rates sensitive stocks but in cyclical stocks, in fixed income, in asset markets more broadly. >> wow, so this might have been a bit of a game changer in terms of the treasury issuance, as you said, lower, powell's commentary yesterday. yields are obviously collapsing over a two-day period pretty dramatically which leads people like jeffrey gundlach to say this -- >> i believe we started a bond rally here. i think we've had such a brutal increase and the fed is sounding the right tone. i do think rates will fall as we move into a recession in the first part of next year. >> all right, so here's the big question for you. the pressure is on. are we going to have a bigger bond or stock rally. >> such a good question. i think if we think about our base case, which is in the next 12 months, a soft landing, then our expectation is that yields have reached a peak at 5%, but

they drift lower, so that suggests 5%-ish returns for the bond market whereas for stocks we're already at a correction of 10% from just the late july levels, even more than that from the all-time highs we had reached way back early last year. so we would say actually the probability is for stocks to do a little bit better than bonds but still feel like there's opportunities and urgency right now to lock in bond yields where they are, because what we find is the majority of investors might have an allocation to so-called fixed income but really what that means is just ultra short cash three months, six-month t-bills to extend a bit and capture some of that 5% income. >> one of the keys of what you just said was if there's a soft landing. >> exactly. >> that's where it all -- the rubber meets the road. it has to be a soft landing for that to work. if you have an orderly measured

decline in yields, stocks can do okay. if they start going down, yields, for the wrong reason meaning we're worried about a recession, you know, sooner, that's a potential problem. >> and that's where the risk/reward for bonds is interesting. if we get a soft landing, you can collect 5% and benefit from income if you increased duration, of course, if there is a hard landing and yields fall, let's say, 1% from here, that's not crazy, a little bit below 4% then you could be talking about 12% return from something like the u.s. aggregate so for fixed income there are different scenarios possible but the risk/reward is favorable to add a little duration from here. >> what about adding diversity in terms of regions, geography, how would you address that? >> this is a big topic that comes up in client conversations, number one, why should i step out of cash? number two is -- >> why should i step out of the u.s.? >> why should i step out of the u.s.?

>> why should you? >> actually, actually we see our clients a lot more open to the idea because i think there is a realization that the pandemic has shaken things up in a positive way, for example, europe and japan have inflation, have the perspective of positive interest rates so you can have better nominal growth, better earnings growth and discovered buybacks so better earnings per share. japan especially out of the two is one we feel optimistic about and then lastly in emerging markets a lot of headwinds and challenges for china. i think the enthusiasm about adding to china has fizzled but one that's really growing is india. it's already the third largest em equity universe and see a lot of investors honing in on that and growing exposure. >> i enjoyed it. thanks for being here. gabriela santos joining us once again at post 9. getting news out of the sam bankman-fried trial. kate rooney joins us. kate. >> reporter: so the jury has officially started those deliberations in sam bankman-fried's criminal trial. we are officially on verdict

watch. reminder, 12 jurors here need to agree unanimously on this decision. he faces seven criminal counts of fraud and conspiracy. sam bankman-fried, the crypto founder of ftx pleaded not guilty and the jury will go later. it adjourns at 4:30 but the judge extending that to 8:15 offering people dinner and ubers home if they need it. court is not in session tomorrow. they're not deliberating tomorrow so if they do not reach a decision by this evening, it will go into next week but, again, scott, jury officially deliberating in this criminal case. back to you. > appreciate that. kate, thank you. kate rooney outside the courthouse. up next searching for opportunity. vantagerock's avery sheffield will tell us where she sees upside. she's here at post 9 after this break. "closing bell" right back after this break. and this must be the ocean view?

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we are back with stocks

rallying into the close. here to share, avery sheffield, co-founder and cio of vantagerock. welcome back. your view of the market post jay powell? are we getting it right? >> i'm not sure the market is getting it right. i don't think powell would say that the "markets in turmoil" is getting it right. i feel like he was trying to present as hawkish a message he could given the economy is starting to show signs of slowing. >> really? i mean, he had multiple opportunities yesterday to push back on the market's view of future hikes, and he really didn't do that. markets priced him out. >> yes. >> he had that chance, he didn't do it. >> i don't think he thinks given the way things are going right now that there need to be future hike, but the market's reaction has almost moved from future hikes to near-term cuts, right? the market has gone into this still being expensive relative

to treasuries. if you think there aren't going to be cuts and you'll have the fed funds rate over 5% and ten-year close to 5%, many stocks are far too expensive and the movements since he started speaking suggest that they're starting to price in some real rate cuts. >> so you agree with jeffrey gundlach, now is the time to buy bonds? >> i don't know. this could be a head fake. i don't know that rates need to go that much higher so might be a fine mace to be. over time especially like the short end of the curve over time will come down but how long is that from now? who knows? on the short end of the curve. the long end is really a question of how long can the -- can yellen stave off more treasury issuance, what happens internationally so this move right here given that we aren't going to have a surprise in treasury instruments might be okay but it might be a head fake. what is the jobs data is strong tomorrow? >> good news has been greeted with bad news and vice versa.

you think we're at risk of that again. >> i think we are. actually i think there's a reflexive dynamic. when there's bad news the market rallies and bond yields come in. that's a key part of the financial conditions that powell was speaking about, like, if financial conditions loosen, they loosen for him. he's going to keep rates higher as long as rates are higher, things will slow. what that might mean we're in a range-bound kind of potentially grind down on stocks that are too expensive dynamic. >> which stocks do you say are too expensive. >> which do i say? the way we look at things is the way many are today, cash is at 5%, you want to -- you want an earnings yield that's greater than 5%, you want a p/e lower than 20. the market is right around there. and so we think -- >> only because of megacaps. >> not just because of megacaps. there are still a lot of growthy stocks out there that are much more expensive than the megacaps and i think people are still measuring those stocks on i

invery -- incrementality. unless, again we have so much stimulation that they move up again and companies might have a harder time. >> you're telling me you want to stay away from the nasdaq, it sounds like? >> not all of the nasdaq. but you want to be careful about stocks, i think, that are still much more expensive than treasury yield unless there is very significant growth in addition to that strong earnings season. >> like the arc-type stocks are the ones with the higher valuation and megacaps have -- all, not all but most are above 20 p/e, maybe alphabet and meta are below but still elevated, the other ones are. >> yes, yes, so, right, so with the -- the magnificent seven there's a dispersian of valuation. the less expensive stocks could grow into their valuations and microsoft where if co-pilot goes

well, will certainly grow into its valuation, so what we're looking at is like how -- which stocks could potentially grow into that kind of 20 times p/e or lower over the next one to two years. a few of those names fit into that category. but it's more like the arc stocks that are still very growthy, very frothy, some with very -- still questionable balance sheets -- >> earnings. >> earnings that i would be more concerned about. >> let me get your opinion on what bill gross said. he tweeted, we'll show you it, calling the bottom in regional banks saying buying truist, citizen, key corp, the falling knife of regis nall banks has hit a bottom and will be on "last call," an exclusive interview with brian. you'll want to pay attention, 7:00 eastern time. your thoughts? >> i think he might be right on the regional banks, not because they're about to turn tomorrow, again, if we have this dicey economy, but there's so much negativity that's priced in and

given that we're likely to have kind of an up and down economy, but not that could keep a major credit event from happening, if you don't have a major credit event happening, the regional banks are far too cheap and doesn't have the same regulatory pressure with the very significant capital constraints being put on the larger banks so i do think it's a place to watch but, look, we have a bond rally today, they'll work really well with bond rallies and goes the other way, you could certainly feel some pain in the near term. >> last question, the absolute best place in the stock market right now is what? >> is what? well, i think the safest place for a risk/reward is one of the most boring places out there and i think that is the u.s. telecommunication carriers which have been the dog of all dogs, but i think that they are very underappreciated. if you like bonds, you should really like the u.s. telcos. at&t and verizon, both with free cash flow yield, well over 10%,

dividend yields over 7% and t-mobile with nearly 9% free cash flow yields and giving back a lot of that to shareholders and if these are stable businesses, that's a much better yield than you can find for that quality business anywhere else and there are a couple of key reasons why i think that's the case. >> do you want to give them them? >> one is first of all the competition from the cable operators is starting to see dissipate. comcast mobile cub strikers going down and charter is actually going to be wrapping their free line starting 4q and been a major risk to operators that they'll shift to cable. the other major dynamic, capex is going down. each of the major operators said tear upgrade rates of new cell phone, which the carriers buy, are going down so capex for cell phones and 5g networks which should further expand free cash

flows. >> thanks. talk to you soon. up next we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close and kristina partsinevelos standing by once again with that. >> good-bye, pumpkin spice, hello peppermint patty and gingerbread oat chai why starbucks shares are popping and software firm now eligible for the s&p 500. i'll explain all this and more next. >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco. an active leader in fixed income.

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fimple lebeau with details on the auto space. >> gm, ford and stellantis moving higher with the rest of the market today. we have confirmed that the uaw members who are on strike more than 35,000 at one point will be receiving compensation for every day that they were walking a picket line and not working. this is unusual because typically there's no compensation aside from the strike fund from the union for those workers, but we have confirmed that as part of the tentative agreements with the three auto companies, there will be some money that comes from the final amount agreed to in those tentative agreements that go to those workers, not a full day's salary, maybe closer to 100, $150, whatever it might be, "the wall street journal" reporting earlier this afternoon that it's $100 per day that they were on the picket line. we haven't confirmed that amount but there will be some

compensation, scott, as part of the tentative agreements for those workers who were not working but were striking and walking a picket line, scott, back to you. >> all i can think, phil, between the deals that shawn fain of the uaw cut with the major automakers and this, brilliant negotiation. you could put it into perspective better than me and cov covered the space for many, many years. it's remarkable what he was able to do for the uaw. >> far exceeded what anybody expected. when he was first elected uaw president, there were a lot of people saying, this guy is coming in, he's promising to do things differently. his strategy was completely different than what the uaw has done in the past and it's paid off in terms of record contracts and, look, in terms of this news here, when was the last time you heard about anybody striking any company in any industry and the people who were walking the picket line receiving some form of compensation? that's pretty remarkable.

>> yeah, i also wonder, you know, in terms of just future work stoppages, the precedent that this may now set and how that all factors into down the road in other areas of the economy where you could see work stoppages in the future. i appreciate it. that's phil lebeau with the latest reporting here. appreciate it. we do have 15 minutes till the close. back to kristina partsinevelos now for a look at the key stocks she's watching. kristina. >> you may make one of those who order the extra shot warm milk soft topping caramel drizzle pumpkin spice latte but those pricey drinks and lattes helped revenue climb 11% with a 3% increase in starbucks traffic but not everywhere. north american customers were the ones buying as the international business saw weakness, coffee drinkers in china are cutting back orders amid a slowing economy. palintir on an earnings beat that includes a fourth straight quarter of profitability and that means they're eligible for

ininclus in inclusion in the s&p 500. >> we asked where will apple trade first? closer to 190 or closer to 160? we'll find out where it goes pretty soon because those earnings are coming in "overtime." head to @cnbcclosingbell on x. the results just after this break. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises. as a fiduciary, i promise to be the financial steward that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals.

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you know, reasonably close, though closer to 190 is the winner with 56% of that vote. up next, apple not the only big name recording in overtime. a rundown of what to watch for when some other crucial travel names hit the peta. we'll take you inside the market zone next. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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what he is watching, joe, as i turn to you first we have a nice ramp here as we get closer to the end. we're pushing toward 600 points on the dow. >> we sure do and it's a little bit of a short squeeze. let's remember where we were just one week ago with this market. a little bit of a short squeeze, a little bit of the seasonality effect. we have to hear from apple to get the confirmation, i believe, for megacaps but this is all a very good setup as we move towards the end of the year. >> the question i asked a couple of our earlier guests including avery sheffield, is the market getting the fed chair right because that's really where we ramped. you know, right out of the fed once this press conference was over and now we've got follow-through. she said not so sure that he was still -- it's not like he was super dovish. how would you address that question, is the market getting this right? >> i just look at the ten-year treasury. that's pulled back to 4.65. i think that's telling you everything you need to know. we're taking back the hiking that the treasury market did on behalf of the federal reserve.

>> yeah, unless it's falling because we think we're in a weakening economic period. so, courtney reagan, expedia, booking holdings, it's not all about apple. these are important too. >> sure. we'll get a window into how consumers are feeling about leisure travel in a couple of minutes. both of course online booking agencies for airlines and hotels and while domestic travel is seeing a slowdown from post pandemic high, international appears to be holding up at least that's what we've heard so far from the airline carriers. now, hotel operators, marriott, hyatt, hilton are reporting still strong demand with slightly higher rates, at least for the most part. disappointing profit expectations so investors will want to know expectations from booking and expedia, up coming, nonpeak holiday travel and the color we hopefully get on the conference calls and the stock moves are varied between booking and expedia. down 2% over the past three months or the quarter they'll report, expedia up 8% but down

20% since august 3rd. back over to you. >> court, thank you so much. we'll see what happens. bob pisani, i read your trader talk note yesterday morning, and it's about, whoa, 60% of the companies who have reported, their earnings estimates are coming down for the fourth quarter. earnings may be too high and here we are in a two-day move that's just astonishing. the nasdaq is working on its best week of the entire year. so nobody puts these things into perspective better than you. >> the market was very efficient at sniffing out the fact that earnings were coming down because stocks dropped before even the analysts got ahead so here's a good example. this is markets sniffed out earnings were coming down but i'm with terranova. it's the ten-year yield that matters. what's a quarter-point drop? worth 200 points in the s&p. we're up 5% this week. that's the determining factor. the macro factor even more important than the concerns about the slightly lower

earnings situation. so then you add a slightly better earnings picture and get rocket fuel. look at this here, clorox up 8%, starbucks up 10%, inger sol rand, 14%. that's not a high data stock. parker hanafin up 10%, are you kidding me? crazy numbers. it's rocket fuel. >> the companies that have reported before those did, one of the big stories this earnings season you weren't getting pops in stocks, now all of a sudden the dynamic has changed. >> because you're getting that -- what he was just talking about, suddenly there's a reversal and the market believes we're not going to pop through 5% on the ten-year yield. here, let me tell you the problem i see right now. apple is going to occupy us very, very quickly. the problem is the rally we've seen sets the bar much higher for apple to really pop. >> yeah. >> even if they say something, what are they going to say to turn things around? it's hard to imagine but you have a good observation about apple and the put/call situation

and i agree that could move up but apple is up 5.5% this week and even for the jobs report, scott, the rally that we've had, i think, makes the bar higher for a pop, even if we get a desirable jobs report which i think should be a little below the consensus. >> it's like, joe, apple is up near 10 bucks in the span of a week. >> it is. >> you looked at a chart that looked bad. below it's 200-moving day average and everybody who talked about it, it's been trading awful and to bob's point, now it's ramping into this earnings report. >> well, but it's all a reaction to what we're witnessing in treasury yields and not ironic, it's actually what history teaches us about markets, that the day that the gdp print came out was the top for yields. that was the actual near term top for yields. yields fell from that. >> i got less than 30 seconds, russell, 2.5% and it's been crushed lately. >> the russell, small caps are the most sensitive to higher

interest rates because it raises borrowing costs and companies have higher costs because the risks are higher. eliminating that really, really helps small caps. >> all right, good stuff. thank you, gentlemen. i appreciate it very much. okay, apple is just ahead into oc with morgan and jon. [ closing bell rings ] big, big rally as investors digest the fed, welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. >> the day watchers have been waiting for. we are just minutes away from one of the most important moments of earnings season and a key read from the granddaddy of all bellwether stocks, we will have live analyst reaction and commentary from shareholders and industry experts. >> and if that isn't enoug