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♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines this morning. markets in asia surge with south korea's kospi gains 6% after a short selling ban. european equities get off to a lackluster start as wall street comes off the best week of 2023. signal down. shares drop after the carrier board agrees to sell the land

mine network to kkr despite fierce opposition from shareholders. ryan air posts a 59% jump in profit for the physfirst half oe fiscal year. the budget carrier strong earnings see a better sector in the second half. and warren buffett snaps up treasury bills while the cash piles sets a record $157 billion. warm welcome to "street signs." happy monday. we're back after a week off with the time change. i want to share fresh figures. the october final pmi. services pmi has come in at

47.8. that was in line with the flafl flfl flash estimate. no surprise there. the provider of the data, hamburg commercial bank, said it looks like certiservice sector stumbling out of the gate. gdp of the eurozone may fall in the fourth quarter. manufacturing activity took a further step back in october according to one survey we got last week. the overall picture, the eurozone economy , starting out the fourth quarter on the back foot. let's check on the markets and see how things fared overnight. joumanna. >> julianna, not a good start for the european markets. let's take you to what is happening with the ash ian marks

here. nikkei up 2.4%. seeing a strong reaction and turn around overnight. hang seng is up 1.7%. the main performer overnight is the kospi in south korea up 5.6%. there is a lot going on in south korea. let's get to sherry to take a deeper dive in the kospi and a remarkable price action. >> reporter: thank you very much, joumanna. good morning. we have the melt-up session is a short selling ban that an was announced over the weekend with foreign investors buying into south korean equities to cover the shorts. the kospi saw the sharpest rise ever for the kospi. 134 points. in terms of the percentage gains that we saw the biggest jump

since march of 2020. we all remember what happened in that month of that year. of course, the overall market sentiment was not bad to begin with. this short-selling ban is different from the previous ones that the authorities had to carry through in 2008 or 2020 because they were announcing the pandemic or global financial crisis. this is not exactly it. sure, the kospi was losing momentum with the slowdown concerns, but the short-selling targets were concentrated in sectors like the battery stocks or battery material place or internet names and facing legal risks or the china beta stocks and they are rallying hard. the market is closed so they rallied hard.

kospi surged 22% today alone. this is an unusual price action because of the rather unusual short-selling ban. a lot of analysis in terms of what the market implication would be for tomorrow and for this year or for the rest of the year as well. do you want to chase it? that is the big question that is being asked here. a lot of political consideration should be factored in. that's what market watchers are saying given the election schedule in april of next year. the short-selling ban that took effect today will be carried through june next year and the authorities will review the overall improvement in that month of june next year in order to decide what to do next. guys, back to you. >> fascinacinatifascinating. thank you, sherry. over here in europe, it is

finally tuned. we are half-half with a little bit of red and green. the stoxx 600 is trading flat. of course, the markets reacted strongly to the softer than expected payroll print from the u.s. on friday with a massive rally in fixed income. we saw the two-year note rally 16 basis points. markets are pricing in 100 basis points ofendar year of 2024. a big turn around as markets start to un-price higher rates for longer. the immediate impact on equities was positive. here in europe, we are trading flat. all of the major indices except the italian is trading under water. there is a feeling the eurozone is starting off not in a good shape for the fourth quarter and

indicators are looking south. in terms of sectors, this is where leadership is coming from this morning. bits of green from the travel and leisure is up a bit. on the flip side, real estate is down 1%. the likes of venovia is down a bit. you talk about the impact of higher interest rates which is impacting the property developer sector and chemicals down .60%. we kicked off the show by saying happy monday. also welcome back. we have been off for a week with daylight saving time. julianna and i are happy to be back with you at 9:00 a.m. there is a lot going on in markets. >> it was a big week to be off air here in europe. it culminated with the non-farm payroll report on friday which steered the market narrative into the positive one that we have for equities that joumanna

has gone through. let's detail the report of 150,000 new jobs in october. that is less than 170,000 forecast and a drop from 297,000 from september. the unemployment rose to the highest level since 2022. after data, the markets cut the december fed rate hike to less than 10%. let's get to the market action. on friday, we had green across the board. nasdaq gained 1.4%. the s&p about 1%. the dow jones industrial average added 200 points. putting this into the broader weekly context, gains were sizable. nasdaq gaining nearly 7%. s&p nearly 6%. dow gained 5%. the biggest winner of all not on the board is the small cap russell 2000 rising 7.6% on the week. it feels we are in this bad news is good news market paradigm.

how long will it last is the question and investors are now asking that question. turning to the move lower in treasury yields. this morning, we see a reversal. yields higher across the board. ten-year bond trading above 5%. the short-term is the two-year trading at 4.88%. u.s. futures here showing green across the board and contained with the magnitude. investors looking for the loan officer opinion survey this week and we are keeping the fed in focus with the fed speak after the media blackout. we have the china inflation data to look out for. coming up on the program, mixed signals for telecom

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welcome back to the program. telecom italia will sell to kkr for 18.8 billion euro. raising to 22 billion if conditions are met. in a statement, the deal which is expected to close by next summer will enable the firm to debt pile to 14 billion euro. the largest shareholder vivendi issued a statement saying it regrets the decision and would challenge it. let's get to cnbc for more on this deal and claudia. we have known vivendi was opposed to the deal going through. do they have grounds to stand on to challenge it? what does it mean for telecom italia if it goes ahead? >> let's start what the deal means. it has been in the making for a couple of years when it was first put on the table by kkr.

it was presented when telecom was trading at 56 cents. it is a different situation now. the debt is 26 billion euro which has been unsustainable. they will reduce debt by 14 billion. this stage of the game means it became necessary to go forward with the deal with kkr. vivendi wanted 31 billion euro and willing to go down to 26 billion. the deal is at 19 appand potentially up to 22 is far from what vivendi wanted. vivendi holds a 25% stake of telecom. the way this deal is going forward is sustained by the government. it needs the backing of the government because it is the sale of the infrastructure of the telecom system in italy. it needed the okay. they are putting in money, $2.2

billion, to buy a 20% stake and another 10% is tied to the public part. it will be 30% held by the government, so to speak, and 70% held by kkr. the government expect to influence decisions of the grid. it will be seen if the two companies can continue to both be viable and the one that is remaining within t.i.m. is corc corporate operations. vivendi is opposing the sale. it may not close as early as expected. there will still be a lot more to talk about regarding telecom going forward. >> thank you for breaking it down. i look forward to the continued coverage of it. fr sao paolo beat third quarr

operations. the bank said it sees nii rising further the next two years. investors are encouraged by the news. i'm pleased to say the ceo is joining us around the desk. let's pick up with the net interest items. many were cheered on my what you were saying. over the course of the earnings season, many other banks and ceos said we reached peak in nii and going forward those numbers should start dropping. it is a different story for intesa. >> we are a wealth protection company. we have 1.2 billion euro of wealth of the italian families. we are in a unique position to optimize the interest rates.

next year, the interest rates on average would be increasing compared to 2023. in our consideration, this will allow us to increase the net interest income for 2024. we have an edg edging facility bring us possible contribution at the end of 2024 and then positive in 2025. our expectation is net interest income for our company can increase. >> very positive take away there. let me ask about the past deals. the expectation before the set of earnings is your pass throughs would increase up to 30%. you are guiding to 25% pass through. i'm surprised it is so low especially because the government, obviously, is beginning to exert political pressure on you. >> that is true. in the end, you have to consider

the unique situation in comparison with all of the other eur europe european peers. we are in a unique position to have 360% correlation with clients. our clients are happy to stay with us also in this condition. what we are covering them is different from the motivation of what we call certificates or products that can allow you to have higher yield, but not touching the liability on the deposit side. we are very good in making this job. today, our pass through is very limited and i think we have been conservative in making estimates for 2024. >> can i ask about the capital returns plan? this is part of the reason the investors are lured into the stock. what is your message to

investors and can you give us insight into the timeframe and size of the capital return to shareholders? >> i know there is something like talking about buybacks to increase the share of the price. i want to start from cash dividend. we are in a unique case of cash dividend payout in euro. we pay 70% of cash dividend. if you look at the cash dividend and compare to the market cap, the dividend yield is 11.5%. if you buy, you have a dividend deal in the next six months of 11.5% of zero risk. zero non-performing loan. increasing for the customer and allow increasing cash dividend. at the same time, we have excess capital. we are ready to propose a share

buyback and considering in 2024 and 2025, we are not impacted by regulatory headwinds on the capital. we will exceed 14%. we can be in a position to head to 70% share ratio and buyback position in 2024 and 2025. >> what could derail those plans, if anything? what is your message around the certainty of that share buyback? >> the point on certainty is correlation with the capital position. capital is there for the unexpected losses, not for expected losses where you place economic figures. looking at the figures in the medium term, only the significant recession, or deep recession, can move us in a

different position. moving into a protection of the interest of our stakeholders for the medium and long term. otherwise, we remain with limited risk profile. the needs of not obtaining significant excess capital. >> you said with the recession in italy, there are concerns of the trajectory for the eurozone and italy as well. you said there is a lot where you are not seeing an uptick in delinquencies or non-performing loans. i wonder the risk. >> the point of the potential recession is the strong correlation with other countries' position because italy is a strong savings from

italian families. today, there is a situation of recession in germany which is one of the most important correlation of the italian economy. in 2024, this expectation is in the german economy. the expectation is it is difficult to enter into recession. from our side, it is impossible looking at our figures. >> one thing not in your control is the investors' perception of the italian risk. we watched sovereign bond yields and where they are trading and the spread is around 200 basis points. at what point does that become an issue for you? >> the perception of investors is something that is very important because the spread is a significant correlation with the perception. perception is not reality. reality is different. if you look at the fundamental

of the country, the spread should be between 100 and 150 basis points. in italy, we have 11 trillion of wealth of italian families and 3 trillion of debt. in the country like this, you can have some movement in terms of interest rate spread correlated with the demand in the offer of government bonds. in the next year, it could be reduction of demand because the ecb reviews the buying of the italian government bond. the correlation of this could be 30 or 50 basis points. no more than this. i think in the end, 200 basis points for the spread is a high level for our country. >> let me take you to a question that always comes up in the european banking sector. the cross-border m&a. you have been across the deals

with the border deals. how does cross-border m&a fit within your plans? >> we were one of the few banks that followed the react -acquisn and moving into the con consol consolidation. we con solidated within our country with ubi. we were the first bank to make a significant acquisition within the country. to move to a cross-border consolidation, you need to create svalue for the shareholders. you have to increase the dividend pressure. you need synergy to do this. to create that synergy today is not easy. especially if you look at the areas in which investors are waiting for synergies. you cannot sell revenue synergy.

something like a dream. you need to do something on real and in the short-term. today, to deliver that on the cost side is not easy. i think we have to wait probably for a banking union to move into the real significant cross-border consideration. we need to do it because otherwise europe will remain at marginal group of countries in compari comparison. it is impossible to compete without significant giant. >> for sure. julianna's question was crosses border. let's ask about the speculation in domestic banks. where do you stand on the debate given are you are in a decent capital position? >> if we were in the position to make acquisition in italy, we

have a way to create value for the shareholders. we have a market share of 30% deposit and mutual funds. we have a significant product in terms of anti-trust. this is something that we feel sy is impossible. others make a combination with the other different names. >> let me ask because you bring up the issue of anti-trust. how is the italian banking relationship with the government? many were surprised with the unveiling of the banking tax. we know it has been watered down, but it created a lot of fuss and at most, a couple of billion euro. >> you cannot have a negative

relationship with the banking sector and government. it sis unbelievable. you can have some points in which you have to discuss. at the end, the target is a common target and it is to work in order to increase the growth of the country. and to work with the social investments for poorer people in the country. the target of the government is to work to improve conditions of people and families in the country. not to move the tax to reserves, but at the same time we launch the program for social inequality which is equal to 1.5 billion euro and in order to give money to poorer people and we decided to have the 1,000 people working for social

inequalities within the country. >> just coming back to joumanna's question about the episode around the banking levy which has been walked back, has it damaged the government's reputation within the sector? >> also at this point, it is clear in the short-term range, when you announce something unexpected and not so well prepared, you can have a short-term negative image. in the end, if you are able to make something that makes sense, because the program today, in my view, makes a lot of sense especially if banks move to do something for the country and you recover in the end. let me say europe and other countries have not a usual way of creating continuous good

relation in banking sector. this does not mean that you can have a stigma forever. that's something that can be considered in the medium term and not in the short term decision. to me, the government is in a good relation with the market. i do not see any significant point or negative point. >> i have been covering italian markets for a long time. people love to worry about italy all the time. rightfully so with the gdp levels being quite high. >> that is true. i'm in this position ten years that i'm ceo. ten years i'm working with the investors and with a lot of stakeholders. each time, you have to say italy is a strong country. we have a position in terms of

savings of families which is unique. the kind of diversification of the sector. the public sector is something we have to pay attention and we will have to move into the direction that is sustainable. we are talking more in the sense of starting saying italy could be a problem and looking at it fundamentally, italy is not a problem. we are the third bank in terms of market cap in europe and we are 100% italian. we leverage. we deliver more than 7.5 billion euro in a year exceeding a lot of competitors with france and germany and all of the other best places considered in the world. the results of the italian families and companies. >> if you look at the stoxx 600,

there are not many companies that have done as well as the italian banks this year. that is a testament to how well you have done. thank you so much for coming on the show. good luck with the red of the show this week. the ceo of intesea. and it is another packed week for markets with the latest report from u.s. and saudi aramco and the rest of the trading week reporting. we will have more coming up.

welcome back to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. >> kospi gaining 6% after seoul imposes a short selling ban. u.s. equities get off a lackluster start as wall street comes off the best week of 20 236r2023. signal down as t.i.m. sells

to kkr. and ryan air posts a 69% post in provfit after a steady rise of fares. berkshire posts a 40% jump in earnings as warren buffett snaps up treasury bills as oracle of omaha crashes in with a regard stockpile of cash. after a strong week last week, we are off to a lackluster start to the trade here. it is red with the stoxx 600 is hovering around the flat line. quiet start to the week. for context, the stoxx 600

gained 3.4% for the week last week overall. a modest rally compared to wall street with the s&p gains 6% and nasdaq nearly 7%. it was a strong one for equities. we're in a bit of a bad news is good news paradigm at the moment. how long it lasts is the question now as investors are asking if this is a bear market rally. we have one sector in focus this morning. that is the airline sector. ryan air shares trading 7% higher this morning. ryan air expect a record annual profit of 20 billion euro after the summer increase of traffic and 95% load factor and promised investors it would see a dividend in the future. that was big news for ryan air. we have seen that with the other airlines as well. you have air france and klm up 3% this morning.

i'm standing in front of it. there is telecom italia down 1.6%. looking at yields, this is driving equities higher. we see a retreat in yeields on both sides of the atlantic. that was the story last week as investors dialed up expectations of fed cuts next year. really pulling back or reining the higher for longer period. you have the german ten-year bund trading at 1.7%. that yield is trading at 1.5% for the two-year yield. this is after we saw a big retreat last week. turning to u.s. futures, green ton the board at this hou.

the s&p is looking to gain seven points at this hour. it is set to be another big week of earnings and data on both sides of the atlantic. on the corporate front in europe, we heard from ryan air this morning with biontech due to report today. tomorrow will be results from ubs and saudi aramco. on wednesday, we hear from companies including airbus and adidas before bayer on thursday. we will hear from europe's biggest insurers as we wrap up the week. stateside, we hear from 47 companies from the s&p. disney is reporting on wednesday as we see results from japan with nintendo as well reporting. >> let welcome paul gambill on the show. we had a massive retreat in bond

yields and equities managed to rally on both side ofs of the i this have legs? >> that is the question we are all trying to work out. we have the huge earnings week. we expect that to be positive. looking in the rearv-view mirro, we have seen a strong quarter for gdp and earnings. i think it has legs for a little while longer. unfort unfortunately, those legs are cut from under it by fed policy. we have done work to look at how effective fed policy has been over the last 70 years and over the last 25 years. what we found is that basically they always raised rates too

high at the wrong time and been far too late to reverse that trend and to hold rates and start cutting rates. i think this is a bit of a last hurrah for equities. it is 2024 where we think we get the next phase of fed grief, as it were. the first phase is the fed to start to indicate they realized they need to soften their approach and that's positive for fixed interest and equities. the second phase is we find out that, like every other time before, they left it way too late and we get fixed interest rallying, but it is a dismal time for equities because of how severe the contraction. is 2024 a conditraction?

the question is how severe is the recession. >> what makes you sure the fed made a policy mistake? we had payrolls come down friday and the previous number revised lower. by and large, the u.s. economy seems to be resilient still. >> you can argue that, but then when you dig into the granular data, it tells a different story. the big factor that supported the q3 gdp numbers was consumption. you know, consumption has to be paid for by consumers. we've seen they paid for it because at the end of june, consumers had around $1 trillion in savings and by the end of the quarter, it was down less than two-thirds of that. the money to keep spending at that rate is not coming from consumers. it also will not come from corporates because if we look at the borrowing numbers for the

quarter, they were also pretty weak. consumers will not spend going forward. they will run out of savings. on a forward outlook, we just don't see where this support comes from. on top of that, the american economy, like the global economy, has got the chains of high interest rate around its neck. >> here's the thing, paul, if we agree with what you are saying with the u.s. economy is headed, but the market is priced for that. 100 points of rate cuts factored in. are you saying that the central banks will have to cut more than what is priced in? >> absolutely. we think that even in a

reasonably mild recession, we are looking at three to four times that by the time we get o the end of the rate hike cycle. no way we can sustain the fed fund rate today or 100 bps less than today against the environment where borrowing is negative and consumer have spent all of the savings that were built up during the lockdown. if you factor all those in, it is really a pretty hard landing. you need much more aggressive rate cut action sooner and we're not going to see that. in fact, i saw that campbell harvey who created the inverted yield curve recession indicator said he thinks the inflation rate currently is below 2% and the fed should have actually been cutting rates from january this year onwards.

we we had all those extra hikes since january. we have to rein back on those and rein back on being too high for too long. every other time in fed history, the fed has done the same thing. this is a repeated mistake the fed has made. they appeared to have made it again. as in every other case, it needs a much greater adjustment than the one they are forecasting which is what they are selling to the markets right now. >> paul, thank you for joining us and sharing what i have to say sounds like a bearish view. we will get you back on. paul gambles, managing director of mbmg. and turning to the middle east. antony blinken is visiting the iraqi leaders in baghdad and palestinian president abbas.

blinken said middle east teeds to needs to be at the center of the conversations. we have deborah haynes with the latest update from the middle east. [ no audio ] >> i'm very, very sad to say we don't have audio from her. she is live in the field as you saw. >> a big shame. there has been another escalation over the weekend. israeli forces are circling northern gaza. there is talk it is almost impossible to move from the northern part to the southern part. this as western leaders are not going out and calling for a cease-fire. they are calling for a humanitarian pause.

it would be a pause to allow for aid to enter into the gaza strip. what is interesting is that none of the senior western leaders said the word cease-fire. >> and antony blinken calling it a pause. i wonder to what extentresponse benjamin netanyahu said. they should be removed from the lexicon. clearly he has made that a line in the sand being the release of hostages to try to address that. >> one question is given the western leaders and what we saw with the u.s. president joe biden visit last weekend and u.s. secretary of state meeting with the u.s. palestinian authority leader which they have governance over west bank, not gaza. abbas has been effective and

been there a long time. my question is what impact have they had in terms of restraining israel's response within gaza? you have to think there are lots of talks happening behind the scenes, but so far what we have not seen is a lot of restraint and questions of not only a cease-fire, but humanitarian pause at this point as well. >> for the latest developments in the israel-hamas conflict, head to our blog on cnbc.com. apologies for the sound problems. and coming up, berkshire hathaway and warren buffett sits on a record amount of cash. we'll break it down after this break. only the sleep number climate360 smart bed lets you both sleep up to 13 degrees cooler or warmer on either side, and at your ideal level of comfort. your sleep number setting. and now the new queen sleep number® c2 smart bed is only $899. sleep next level. shop now only at sleep number

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you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible. welcome back to the program. let's get straight back out to israel with deborah haynes joins us. thank you for sticking around. bring us up to speed for the key

developments from over the weekend. >> reporter: of course. overnight, there were heavy air strikes into gaza that you see behind me and communications have been cut off for the third time in the war. just in the last hour, there have been heavy strikes behind me which is the northern tip of northern gaza which is the rear end, if you like, of the israeli offensive. the focus is on gaza city which is over in that direction and the military said yesterday that the troops have encircled gaza city cutting off the north from the south. we know the military has been urging palestinian civilians to move south to avoid the intensity of the military operations in the north. lots of them have and still some remain in the north. even those in the south are still at risk of air strikes. there was huge pressure mounting on israel over the left of

civilians who have been dying in the war. the hamas-controlled health authority putting the figure of death since the war started at close to 10,000. a third of the number is children and many more women. this adds to the pressure regionallynot just in terms of the cease-fire or humanitarian pause. the humanitarian pause is what the u.s. is seeking, but the risk of escalation. that is what people are focused on. >> deborah, when you think of hezbollah and the speech on friday was key in terms of where we go next. thank you very much for that report. deborah haynes of sky news. berkshire hathaway's earnings for the quarter is up 30% for the year. the company took advantage of higher rates as the cash holding is an all-time high.

arabile is here to discuss the numbers and why the cash pile has been building. arabile. >> it could be about acquisitions. the record high at berkshire this quarter was driven by geico which is the crown jewel of the insurance portfolio. $1 billion pre-tax profit from $759 million loss in the previous period. claims. fewer drivers submitting the company's net loss quadrupled. it posted a $24 billion investment loss for the quarter primarily driven by decline in the apple stake. that was a drawdown of $20 billion in the period. cash holdings is a big one rising to the record high of $157 billion.

$10 billion climb parked in short-term treasury bonds which are yielding at the 5% mark. trying to keep that powder dry. in may of 2023, warren buffett said cash is not trash. that is because he is waiting for the right opportunity to pick up some stocks that will, perhaps, work. remember that 78% of the equity portfolio and equity performance of berkshire is based off the five stocks. i like to call them the abcs of berkshire. you have apple at $156.8 billion. american express is part of it. bank of america is the "b" with the share of the division. how have the top three done when it comes to the performance

across the year? you have apple's dip happening after july. that is impacting berkshire across the portfolio. that is where the $20 billion losses comes from. this is where you see it in berkshire's share price across this year when he compared to t s&p. yes, it goes up, but the rise is based off apple's decline, but you have the bond yields helping the portfolio overall. s&p 500 is climbing up to the middle the of the year. good earnings, but waiting for the next acquisition. >> arabile, thank you for the breakdown. that does it for "street signs." "worldwide exchange" is up next. an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5." we start with stocks coming off the bestweek of the year and looking to build on the gains this morning. futures are higher right now. and this is met by a steep dropoff of the yields. we will see if that trend continues today. and it is not just yields, but oil going negative for 2023. we will see what opec has to say about that. plus the berkshire cash hoard that swells to a record high. later on ith