coming in a little bit weaker, that means is fed is going to be dovish. maybe it's higher for longer or at least it's not higher, higher, right, that they have to expect. so, i think the market reacts to that as the market does. >> okay. dana. we -- dana, we got to say thank you. we got to jump. we got to pass it over to "squawk on the street," and i'm sure we'll talk to you again very, very soon. >> that does it. good-bye, everybody. see you tomorrow. >> thanks. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. bulls trying to build on the best week for stocks in a year. dow is at six-week highs. nasdaq going for seven straight gains. we'll wrap up this final busy batch of earnings this week. ten-year, 4.6%. our road map begins with stocks in rally mode. stocks coming off best week since november of last year. media is in focus. disney reports this week.

paramount with a double downgrade over at b of a. and citi considering some steep job cuts as part of a corporate overhaul. let's begin, though, with this new week for the markets, jim. you had some words this morning on x for mike wilson, arguing that things actually changed last week. >> look, mike said he wants to keep an open mind. i don't know. he's been a dominant force for this bear market for much of the market, but he wants to keep an open mind, but at the same time, it's like last week didn't occur. we see analysts don't understand what i think is a true sea change, when you get the sellers are done, interest rates go down, fed out of the picture for a while, and then the next thing you know, we have a body issuance that makes it so you can't shoot against the bonds and you have the largest short position bonds in history. what happens is you coalesce with shorts in stocks, because they have been pretty easy for a while. shorts in bonds, capitulating. nothing to shoot against.

that's kind of -- i know that's not a near about the consumer doing better. it's not a theory about the magnificent seven. it's a theory which just says you can buy, and sometimes that's more powerful than looking at individual groups, and it's time to just say, you know what? there's not a lot of resistance here. where are the sellers? they've disappeared. looks like the end of october, which is a fiscal year for mutual funds. they're gone. that's why it was so easy to go up. let's take apple. there was nothing special in apple. i happen to like apple, but there was nothing special. the sellers dried up at $171 and then the next thing you know, the buyers, said, what the hell, let's take it up. what the hell, let's take it up, seemed to be the theme of last week. >> you talk about the october quarter. yardeni's point was that was a deadline for any tax law selling. does that mean the coast is clear, at least on bonds? >> kind of.

we don't have really strong data. there's not a lot of 30-year paper, and we thought we would be overwhelmed with 30-year paper. you know, i struggle to think, okay, what could be the disadvantage here? maybe mortgage rates come down in the housing business. the stocks were saying, listen, we could come back and the fed doesn't like that. i think the biggest problem is that powell knows that two months is not enough. you have to see six months of no growth. so, that's -- there were some calls for january -- it was very funny. well, the hike is going to go from december to january. >> barclay's. >> okay, sure, but i found -- i gist th just think we're looking at individual stocks now because we don't have to worry so much about the big picture because of the ten-year and that's how you get an upgrade in bank of america. that's how you get an upgrade in key, even though they're talking about a dividend cut. an upgrade in u.s. bank corp. this is the group that has been the most penalized so if you're, again, to circle back to mike wilson, if you're looking at no

breadth widening, i'm looking at the banks suddenly being buys. i want to buy first horizon. that got a bid. u.s. bank corp., 5% yield. that's not bad. the banks don't -- they seem to be having some regulatory relief, according to some of the analysts, so i don't know. i can find a lot to buy. i don't have a lot to sell. i don't want to go sell amazon ahead of the holiday season. i don't want to go sell alphabet because i really do believe that youtube's doing well. we already just went through the apple non-shortfall that everyone pounced on. so, we had some nvidia chatter. nvidia reports during a quiet period. their off-cycle, thanksgiving day holiday, and the nvidia piece was cogent because what it said was, okay, look, there are some problems with china. there definitely are. but then you have yellen talking about maybe we can have some rapprochement. >> this op-ed in "the washington post." >> i think nvidia is at the crux of so many things because

rapprochement without the people's liberation army getting what it wants is not a rapprochement. what i thought was most exciting about all this, if you are a bull on nvidia, which i am, is that jake sullivan was involved. jake sullivan, hitherto, not been involved. jake sullivan is about defense and about the idea that the nvidia chips are being used for the military. so, let's just watch nvidia, because at the fulcrum of all these talks, and some of them being involved might have been bullish for nvidia. what they're saying is, okay, let's actually -- let's talk about what you're using those chips for. >> even if you got an ease in the trade relations, this "journal" piece today about just the chinese consumer and they cite el. they cite goose. they cite yum china. they cite apple. >> well, i mean, apple, of course, was the leader in four cities. in a couple of urban places, they were number one. they took share. i notice starbucks not mentioned. starbucks is doing very well. >> you don't want facts to get in the way of a good story. >> look, estee lauder is a

disaster. thank you, david, for pointing that out to me. i have to tell you, i have great affection for fabrizio, but deserve's got nothing to do with it as gene hackman explained in "unforgiven." i think china is mixed. we have singles day coming up. maybe the government does like what president trump did and just say, okay, we're going to give you some money. they have to give money. the consumer there is really cut back. by the way, tiktok is something to watch, because tiktok is being perceived by many ceos as really being run by the chinese right now, and run in a way that is -- bill ackerman was speaking earlier. i'm a stock guy, but it does seem that tiktok is -- has become a way for the pla -- and i mention the pla, because that's who really runs the show. the jconsumer doesn't.

xi is backed by the pla. we always talk about it as if it's a big e-commerce play. china is a former -- it's a formal military presence that's attacking boats off the philippines. you know, look, i come back and i say, well, what was the research? well, the research is positive on birkenstock, positive on qualcomm, positive on the banks, positive on walmart, and i end up saying, i can even go, if i wanted to, to fintech. it's positive on paypal. >> we'll talk about some affirm later on this morning. >> positive on affirm. what happens is that we don't have enough negatives, and i think one of the things that mike wilson has to recognize is that you shoot against negatives, but there weren't a lot of negatives, and i know that -- you can say the earnings weren't that great, but they weren't bad enough to sell. >> yeah, b of a has a comment on how good earnings have been. i want to get you on this news, though, jim, that hugh johnston is leaving pepsi to go be the cfo of disney.

that's going to report later this week. >> well, we knew that there had to be some changes at the very top. remember, hugh johnston was on the board at twitter. he didn't fall off the turnip truck. i regard this as one of the most positive things. i talk to hugh every quarter and it's different from talking to a typical cfo. he'll give you his ten-minute overview, which is succinct, smart, tells you what's good and bad. then, he answers questions in a fashion that is so the opposite of most people. he was very much of a hands-on cfo, big loss for laguardia, i think. but if you can get -- they have had an absentee cfo for a while. cfo there actually had a bit of a dust-up with -- and i'm still here. >> there was a big part of the street leading into disney's investor day a few weeks ago that said, why isn't there more excitement? maybe it's because disney has no cfo. how granular can iger get on

some of their targets? >> what hugh gives is someone who can talk to the street. they have some people who talk to the street, but they have been very ineffective. hugh is trusted, and the way he's trusted is to say, look, we didn't deliver what we wanted to do on quaker this quarter. there was a bit of a scrum in the aisles on carbonated, but frito-lay really delivered. i always think, he's not bagging me. he's trying to make me as smart as possible. what disney has not had is anyone on its side saying, they're really smart. smart comes from transparency. hugh is so transparent. that was a great choice by iger. and iger needed to change the narrative. there's no one who can tell a narrative better than hugh on the consumer packaged goods side. >> we're going to get warner this week, along with disney. today, b of a, double downgrade, para. >> it said there was a chance to sell some assets, showtime,

b.e.t., they didn't, and that window now seems to be closed. it's almost as if the season is over for these. i happen to think it's not. >> season over for what? >> okay, we decided, disney's going to buy hulu. comcast didn't have a good quarter. we work for comcast. paramount is a disaster. zaslav can't pull off warner brothers. by the way, i really disagree with that. i'm not as concerned as others. so, i mean, you know, you got disney. you have abc, nbc, cbs and espn, all spoken for, and fox, nobody cares about anymore. so, i just think that the most important thing is to tell the story, and if iger has johnston, he can do other things. i wish hugh were -- he's a great cfo. he could run a -- i would have made him the ceo. >> he's a cfo who walks like a ceo. >> i like him very much because i've never been snowed by him, and david would know this. i'm snowed repeatedly. i feel like a bit of a weatherman.

people don't understand how often i'm snowed and manipulated, and i have to come back ask just work harder than they do and know their companies better than they do, and that is, with total hubris, something i'm very good at, because i have no other life other than something that happened yesterday. >> congratulations. >> i do love my wife. my kids. wish them unbelievable -- one very good luck. but i'll tell you that what really bothers me is when i come in and there are people who tell me something, and then it doesn't happen. >> yeah. >> now, i'll give you the opposite. clorox. linda randle was adamant that the hack was bad. she comes back and explains why she can recover. you hit her hard, and she's got some gain, versus, say, tesla, where you just -- all you do is mention that the cybertruck is probably going to undersell versus ford 150, and a very thin-skinned ceo, apparently, takes to twitter. i don't know. i got some people saying, aren't you going to fight back? i said, i haven't read my

twitter comments since about two years ago. >> in years. >> i have to get up in the morning and put my clothes on, typically briony. today, i see the one that's hard to pronounce >> jim mentions clorox. uvs does go to neutral today. >> that's better than sell. hidden valley ranch doing quite well, and that's not just salad. you can do a lot of things with it. as someone who is in the kitchen. >> you mentioned earnings. today, b of a says the -- the title of the report is, "don't worry, earnings were fine." cevitas said corporate's already had their recession, and now they're in a margin expansion mode as long as demand holds up. >> i think that's right. you have to look at industrials. eton was probably the best quarter. eton was amazing and that's because they're doing a lot of stuff with climate and making sure the grid is better. straightforward story, eton. this is a renaissance of cleveland and a renaissance of

ohio. i see strength out of the tennessee, kentucky -- i had american electric power last week. everything surrounding kentucky is doing very well. everything surrounding tennessee is doing well. there are areas of the country where there's tremendous growth and all this is in the backdrop of magnificent seven doing incredibly well. we were the sellers of apple, carl. where was the tony on the one hand? >> i mean, look, part of berkshire's net loss was apple. the investment loss in apple. >> you win some, you lose some. a lot of his performance has been apple. i thought the key thing about apple that nobody talked about is that the vision pro is going to be a substantial business-to-business operation. i think a starbucks is now a leader because starbucks has one thing going for it. it has a new ceo, whom i think -- i don't know. i look at laxman, and i say,

this is a guy who's a consumer product, good guy, who really understand tech. he brings an apple. if he's bringing in apple, everybody's going to have to bring an apple, and vision pro may not be the colossal joke that people think it is. people are saying cook's lost it. cook has lost it since 2011 when he took over. if he's lost it, count me in. >> yeah. it's not as close to its all-time high as microsoft. >> microsoft, remember, amy hood had been dropping an anvil on your head until last time. that would be another cfo i would steal, but she's never leaving. if you go back over her comments, she had nothing negative to say. she's been a bit of an albatross because she's so honest. now she had nothing bad to say. i think that matters. that's why microsoft is probably the best of the magnificent seven. that's yul brenner. we haven't figured out who steve mcqueen is.

but late november, we do have nvidia reporting. i sense steve mcqueen going down the street in san francisco, you know? >> the bullet chase. >> the "bullit" chase was still the best chase. >> you wrote his obit as i remember. >> he said if anyone ever seas it, i'll come after them. i think the statute of limitations is over on that. we'll get set up on oil and what's going to be the last big push of q3 earnings. look at the premarket holding in there as we're six-week highs on the dow, more "squk t re" ainute.he when you think of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight.

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home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. crude oil moving higher this morning. saudi arabia and russia say they will maintain their supply cuts through the end of the year. wti and brent coming off their worst weekly performance in nearly a month, down about 6%, jim. that's a million barrels per day between the two. >> how about the fact that russia's completely evaded all of the sanctions with their tanker fleet? i would love to know where it goes, but remember, we do have this kind of axis of opposition. i won't call them evil yet, because i still think that china doesn't have to be reduced to being evil. but russia and china, it's -- they're very simpatico. it does seem that india has not renounced that oil. they've managed to do something interesting. they've managed to flood the world with oil but not ruin the price, and i think that a lot of

that is even though we're pumping at the most we've pumped, we could pump more. there's no marginal barrel that sends us back, and if you think the economy's going to start getting better, it's not really clear that it does. i think there's a lot of oil companies worth buying. >> continued discussion about how work-from-home has changed commuting habits. maybe there's a lower ceiling on this stuff. >> you know, you may be right. look, every single travel company tells you people are still traveling. at the same time, china, as we talked about, is slowing. there's -- it reached some sort of equilibrium around the world, but it's almost as if the saudis know exactly how much to produce. the russians produce just enough to make it so that they can beat ukraine, which i think we're not talking enough about. >> how about europeans going into the winter at full capacity storage on nat gas? >> cotera reports, and i think

they're going to have a good quarter, but we're not getting the $5 nat gas or $7 nat gas we started to have last year. we also have global warming, even though people don't seem to ad admit it. the natural gas has no place to go, and i'll be interested to see how much export there really is. >> be interesting to see if we could have two winters without worry in europe. we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell, take one more look at intures on this monday before thgs get spicy later in the week. more "squawk on the street" when we continue. a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

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care about on wall street. we're looking for companies that are disruptive, that don't have any analogs, at least that are public. the one i come back to is draft king, repeated emphasis that this was a truly great breakout quarter. i felt not enough paid to the idea that they've now passed fanduel in market share. they have a november 14th event. ja jason robins has become much more facile in explaining the story. there's still big states where you can't gamble. daily fantasy, which is something that they really emphasize, has just taken off as many fantasy leagues have been decimated by injuries. so, i think this is the one, i mean, it's up big. it's one of the few spacs that have worked, but this is a technology with wonder. it is a great app. winner take all, as i told him. loser take none. he disagrees with me. he says, you're too bullish. i said, no, i'm right. >> where do consumer worries fit

in here if consumers roll over? >> it's a great question. the answer is that they tend to bet less, but there's still, you know, many more people getting involved. there's a lot of people betting 5 and 10 bucks. there are some people who obviously, i think, suffer from overgambling, but you're right to watch. but i do know younger people have almost switched to this. it's like they watch youtube. they gamble. and then there's these new sports. i mean, cricket. we were talking about cricket. cricket, they gamble on every ball. they call them bowl. they gamble on everything. there are a lot of people who are gambling intragame. a lot of people gambling on who's got the best touchdown. and by the way, one of the things that jason's done, the ceo, is no longer have, like, mo mahomes will have a touchdown. the entry price, the competition to get a new gambler, has really gone down. the average cost of getting a new gambler is no longer, i've got to give away everything and say, okay, in this game, if the

chiefs win, you get 25 bucks. that's over. >> do you think penn ends up taking share? >> i think no. >> really? >> i think that it's still warm, frankly. i know that's not consensus. but jason has the best app, and this is a technology game. >> pretty fascinating coming off the print last week. >> it's true. i got to hand it to jason. they have run the cleanest shop. they have run the best app, and the thing that they do is if you go, they have fun bets. fun bets. they have the parlay, and people love a parlay, even though nobody wins. >> the opening bell is coming up in less than five minutes. don't forget, you can always catch us any time anywhere, just listen and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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buffett saw deal more making opportunities. munger gave a q&a to the "journal" last weekend where he gave a 50/50 chance they bag an elephant given how venture capital has inflated prices across the board. >> it's possible, and that's a very sound view. i still think it's difficult to get a deal done. i know that berkshire hathaway, you would think that there's no overlap to what they might buy, and they'll be sensible about it, but the ftc is not sensible. and we haven't heard from them lately, but they've really wrecked -- they've wrecked the m&a market. when you look at amgen, how long it took to buy horizon -- by the way, it's a very good deal. people don't seem to think so. it's still early. i think the chilling effect is just astounding. the fact that you have to go to court to do a deal has made it so it's just, for most -- i deal with a lot of m&a lawyers, and they say the same thing, which is, sorry, unlike the bankers, we don't get paid on the deal,

and there's -- she won't go for it, lina khan. and the president is not a pro-business president. m&a is bad for workers and good for capital. any time you see something bad for workers, good for capital, the president is against it. that's stated. that's what he ran on. >> pick up on that in a second. let's get the opening bell here. at the big board, it's lithium argentina celebrating recent spinoff. and at the nasdaq, it's etf provider defiance. i keep hearing you, jim, talk about the cap that the ftc has put on the market in terms of m&a, your fear of corporate taxes going up. the president, very pro-union, meaning higher wages. without those things, would you be markedly more excited? >> if we could have m&a, there would be so many deals. let's think about the fact that jpmorgan was able to buy first republic and pass the fabled 10%. a number of mergers we'd see in banks because of the way technology works, would be

extraordinary. the number one merger we see in fintech would be incredible. think about the kroger deal with albertson's. i think they're never going to let that go on. they let rite aid go on. didn't seem to matter. there would be tremendous mergers among people who sell cars. there would be big mergers in retail. but no one wants to do these things because they know they would just be rejected, then you would have to go to court, and by the time it's over, you lose a lot of talent. i commend microsoft for going through the deal, but they're the richest company -- second richest company. >> exxon, pioneer, chevron? >> i think those might be bought. people don't think so, but i think they're studying. remember, if you go back and read our stuff, it's very dogmatic. just says, mergers are bad so mergers should be blocked. that's the ethos, and i think people just haven't read her. it's painful as a bull to read her, because what she's saying

is, shareholders have made too much money. it's time for the workers. that's biden. i mean, biden, on the picket line, was a seminal moment because i could argue that he destroyed the profitability of the companies that really matter in terms of becoming ev. i don't think mary barra would disagree with that. you'd have to get them off the desk to say that. he decided to stide with the workers. >> gm is going to invest $13 billion in u.s. facilities by april of '28. as we got some more tadetails o that, tentative. >> gm spent a lot of money on unassisted driving. they -- >> cruise. >> yeah. the cruises. that was a really big blow that we haven't talked about, because they have spent a lot of money on that. ford hasn't. and i was in the back of one of those. i felt completely safe. that's completely meaningless. that's an initiative that they have spent -- they bought a

company. then, they spent another $5 billion. i thought it was working. i went out there to test it, because i said, this is going to be a model in every city. it's not going to be a model for any city. i just think that general motors is being picked on. i don't understand it. but they can spend all they want, but the multiple seems to shrink at every turn. i think it's my -- i've talked to jim farley about our ford position, and i'm very concerned, because i don't know -- i can't see a path to greater profitability. >> right. well, you got tesla up almost 2% this morning. >> well, tesla's back. >> this report they're going to make a cheaper model in berlin. >> i've been waiting for the empire to strike back, and they are doing it. i think that musk stopped -- i think that stock goes to $300. >> are you worried about threats of organization there? >> no. musk is smarter than -- >> fain? >> yeah. musk-fain would be a lot of fun. >> that would get loud. >> it would be.

i think musk plays three dimensional chess, and fain -- look, i don't think that the -- i think that the uaw was underestimated the whole way, because fain just beat them everywhere. it was very much guerilla action. very smart. they were completely -- they were outgained at every turn. it was almost like they were -- that fain was a great nfl coach who really figured out all the weaknesses of the other team and just came in and blew them away. they were blitzing. they were doing everything right. i mean, they had, like, linebackers and quarter blitzes and safety blitzes. the other guys, like the guy -- i love farley, and i love barra, and i think they were, wow, what happened? they were in the "wow, what happened" camp, and when the game was over, it was just a real beatdown. >> where the offensive coordinator's doing a lot of this. >> that game was played in frankfurt.

they were flat. i feel like what happened is they didn't see fain coming, because fain didn't have a big majority. fain had a plan. they didn't. and it was very painful because these are the companies that you need to see have more money. everything -- every time they say anything, multiple strengths, which is very unusual. >> as for sag-aftra, it does look like they're going to take some time to consider what the studios are calling their last, best, and final. it would be good to put that to bed, would it not? >> yeah, that would be. we need -- i hope that -- look, if you're labor, you're looking at this, you're saying, wow. we're done taking what they've been giving us. but the one thing -- unions represent about 20% of the workforce. they have been decimated. i mean, i look at boeing. they could have -- that could be the next one where you would see some problems, because they think they should probably make more money, but i worry about unions. i worry about a president who was self-proclaimed not

pro-stock market when i met him. i met him a number of times. he's not anti, just doesn't put it in the equation. i think there's a belief in the white house, other than secretary raimondo of commerce, that only rich people own stocks. that our show is dedicated to rich people and people aren't -- there's nobody who's striving through the stock market. i think they're dead wrong. you know what? it doesn't matter. that is their ethos. that's why i always thought that if secretary raimondo were to take over for janet yellen, what you would have is a treasury that would recognize that the market is for all. right now, i think they think the market is only for the rich. they seem to be oblivious to where your 401(k) is. it's kind of -- i think it's part of the problem of why biden is perceived as being bad for the economy. he doesn't ally himself with the possibility of making money in the market, which is something that americans did have pride in for a long time. they felt they could. they don't think so now. >> the stock market, you think, has become more foreign to, what, the middle class? >> yeah, it's just another --

i'm not saying they think it's fixed. i think they just say, it's not for us. you want a five-year cd is not for us. again, you could argue hyperbole, but i probably speak to more individual investors than anybody in the country, both on the show and when i go everywhere. >> sure, yeah. >> i don't meet people who care about the stock market anymore. i was walking down the stairs yesterday. a guy said, listen, what do you think about nvidia? i said, you're the first person to ask me about a stock. i think nvidia works. i think it goes higher, but i used to meet people who owned apple, and we would do bottle signings for my wife's mezcal, and people want to know about the stock market. people don't want to know. they just think i've got a five-year -- i've got a 5% cd. why do i have to risk it in that crazy thing that's the stock market? that's our answer. >> isn't that just a function of there being alternatives now? >> absolutely. but i also think that nobody thinks that -- remember, the magnificent seven, no one was really in on them. i always feel like the institutions were in amazon. amazon's a great performer.

i don't meet people who own amazon. the stock price is -- all these companies never split. they were very anti-retail. the big institutions don't want them to split, because then the commission would go higher. but other than the fact that when i named my dog everest, renamed him nvidia, that's really the big impact that i have had, and that's kind of a suboptimal way to look at the market. i named my dog after nvidia, and people bought it. if that's really the grafment of the situation, we're really -- >> it's fighting for thaengs atte attention just like everybody in the country and the world. >> it doesn't have any spokespeople. i haven't met anyone that says, i'm for the stock market, other than gina raimondo, and she's in favor of corporate wealth, which then helps workers. she's a constructive individual in a negativist white house. for capital. >> there is a report from our hugh son about citi today and a

plan by frazier to, in his reporting, cut at least 10% at several divisions. >> they've got to figure out where the book value is going, and if the book value is phony, then the stock deserves to be at $42. the book value is substantially in excess. it's one of the great untold stories. the book value is well out of whack with the common, and the government should look at that. the government is uniquely focused on regionals after what happened. they're fighting the last war. i don't understand -- look, i think citi's fine. i don't think it's good or bad. i just don't understand if citi has all these great businesses and they have all this cash and the tangible book value is well above, what the heck is it doing at six times earnings? i don't understand that at all. if you look at the book value of goldman-sachs, pretty transparent. book value of jpmorgan, very transparent. book value of bank of america is really a proxy for the ten-year, and a lot of people feel the ten-year is done. project bora bora.

when you get married and you want to check out, you go to bora bora. project checkout. project no internet. what is that? project, let's take a couple weeks off and get married. project honeymoon. get serious for heaven's sake. >> you mentioned the upgrade of b of a over at keith. keith also upped them to outperform. >> there they say key could cut its dividend 50% and the stock might go higher. i think that's -- i do believe that's an ill-advised view. i think what matters is the semis are hot again. that's a good leadership group. finance is hot. the consumer, we're going to stick with the costco and the walmart, because the consumer seems to be hobbled. i want to see whether the -- whether the home builders put up more homes or if they're just so constrained, it doesn't matter. i think a lot of rentals are going down. take texas instruments down. they don't want to be talked about. their conference call was so horrible, i felt insulted myself. it's interesting. look. that's an interesting group, the

home builders, because they traded right up with the 30-year going down. >> and we'll get horton later on this week. >> yeah, horton is going to have a great number. that's what horton does. >> bunch of in additiations of burke, and i wonder if you were surprised at how many overweight? >> i was. that made no sense. it just seemed like all they -- all of the -- it's funny. all the ipos is that have come out have really stunk in the aftermarket. >> yeah. >> i want to see what happens with arm, because i think arm could be good. partner is -- we've got a partner with nvidia. but any time interest rates go up for a second, people want to sell the home builders, and i get that, but they had a rally like you wouldn't believe. we -- shouldn't we have some profit taking? it was the best week of the year? doesn't it make sense? can't expect the market to go up today, can you, after all this run? now it's overbooked. >> although, i mean, was it a bear market rally?

>> i don't think. because one of the things that makes it so that there's -- you want to stop a rally, you have to have something to shoot against. you have to have big body issuance. you have to have bad earnings. i got bad news for the bears. earnings season is over. the extent of the earnings season that matters, this is very lightweight. interest rates can go up a little, but i felt -- like, i got bombarded by a lot of people saying, you really think 6% might be off the table? and i think 6% comes off the table because there's not going to be a lot of 30-year issuance, and this josh frost, whoever the heck he is, is a hero. he's the guy who came up with the issuance. uniquely, this is something i really criticize secretary yellen for, who i think is -- has had a good run and would be terrific if she were to resign and give the job to someone else. >> like raimondo, apparently. >> see, raimondo is of today. she's of today. and if the biden administration has a problem, i think it's kind of -- it's just a little bit too old versus -- i'm saying, old-thinking. >> sure, sure.

>> and i just think that raimondo is about reshoring. she's about challenging china, and secretary yellen has been out of touch for a long time. secretary mnuchin used to follow the bond market and stock market on a daily basis. i think that secretary yellen, that's not -- she's very hands-off but to who? i mean, i think this administration is -- the polls show they're just polling horribly, and american people think that -- >> this times sienna poll, looking at the swing states. >> i don't think they're doing that badly, but they have a terrible message. they have a labor secretary came in on friday, and a lot of what we do is to try to raise questions that might be well received or you serve something and it should be served back, even if it's a dink if you're playing pickle. instead, you get obfuscation. i felt very frustrated about talking to the secretary of labor last week. i asked her a serious question about immigration, and i got

a -- what i call a fanciful if not fatuous answer, and i think it's time to call people out when they gave you fatuous answer. we're actually rigorous people. don't give us that. brainard, today, had substantive things to say. i thought that was acceptable. >> she did say that she thought the economy had rolled into a position where growth was sustainable but moderating. >> i thought that was a realistic assessment, not something based on fiction and not just something based on polling. she should have come out on friday. she showed tremendous rigor, actually, and that was a nice change of pace. >> right. it doesn't sound like you're itching to buy much before this year-end. >> i just think i do like the financials, which is pretty extraordinary, but i like the magnificent seven. why? because they're nation states. they don't need any money. i go back over and i speak to tim cook and, boy, i tell you, my conversations are very different from the street.

we're talking about customer satisfaction. we're talking about curtountrie that have hundreds of millions of people and how they're winning. they come in, get the repeat, take the 12 and then maybe they build up to 15 as their countries get a little more wealthy, and when you speak to tim cook, they should run the country. and by the way, they are pro consumer, and their view is -- the conversation always starts with me, like, we have great customer satisfaction, which makes me think about long-term value. the conversation with the analysts is always the same. but the gross margins of the wearables -- they don't look at this quarter's service will surpass wearable, mac, and ipad altogether. they don't think there's anything cooking and they're ready to pounce on negativity with the vision pro. what's interesting is -- here's a magnificent seven thing. i wish zuckerberg well. i mean, the acl, he's on -- is he on ir or out for the season? the guy looks like he's just on ir.

the guy's ripped. he reminds me of a.j. brown. >> we don't know what happened to the other guy. >> i don't want to see the other guy. i got to instagram. i said, this guy, he's changed. he's like a human guy. he's no longer just an avatar represented by a dollar sign. he may be actually -- there may be people who are genuinely sympathetic to the man, like, wow, that acl must have been a bad hit, or was it a soft injury? we don't know. you know, pivot. >> the stock price, at least, has not torn its acl, jim. >> i know people who were worried and said, oh my god. do you think this guy really tunes out? you know what? no bora bora for that guy. project bora bora. i mean, bora easter island and christmas island if anyone remembers those. please. >> we're seeing some decent strength, jim, in some of the online travel agencies. booking up almost 3%. upgraded by d.a. davidson today. >> that was unbelievable that that was -- i thought that quarter was great, and people

didn't like it, initially, and thought expedia had a really good quarter. i actually am stupid enough to think that american express had a good quarter. they're like a gen x -- that stock is too low. this is ridiculous. 13 times earnings for a quality -- but watch alphabet. watch amazon. these companies have no resistance. there was an amazon piece today, which just said, it's an amazon christmas. amazon hanukkah. amazon everything. amazon -- i was surprised -- november 11th is the worst holiday for them. china. >> oh, yes. >> the china holiday. november 11th. consumer holiday. >> thinking of booking, jim, tomorrow's the one-month since october 7th, and what that's done to the market too has been hard to quantify, wouldn't you say? >> i think an element of gloom. i think that any time it's existential for any country, any time it's horrendous innocent loss, the innocence, i think you come back and say,

civilization -- is civilization on the brink? the russians tried to kill civilians every day too. let's not forget that. the russians were on our side in world war ii and they're the most -- no, they did supply to north vietnam. they've been against us for a long time. when they were communists and then some sort of kleptocracy and now they're back to being a total menace, even though they're not a big country, but no one seems to stand up to them in any sort of way. i think iran is the player that people are worried about when it comes to israel and gaza. what will iran do? we've let iran have a real big run ever since the hostage taking, and i don't think anyone has a hard line on iran anymore. president trump hard a hard line. >> we've moved assets into the region. some of these warships, aircraft carriers, now submarines over the weekend. >> it's an incredibly -- what israel is doing is incredibly divisive. i think that i liked what ackman said about these

pro-palestinian, anti-hamas. hamas is a terrorist organization. it's -- everything seems, you know, free the hostages. i don't know. look, it's -- i do know they freed the hostages, but i just think that creates an element of gloom that's been part of the bear market that may be running its course. and that's a yardeni view. >> pretty steady open so far. dow is up a point. s&p, 4,360. we'll watch for activities in fixed income this week. for now, yields up a touch as the ten-year, once again, revisits about 4.62%. we'll be right back.

take a look at bumble. wolfe herd will be leaving stepping down after a decade.

stock has had a rough run down 40% so far year to date. consolidation coming off of last week's big run for the bulls. best week in jt ouusabt a year. stop trading in just a moment. don't go away.

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> i was talking earlier about just the path of least resistance. we still have novo nordisk today, good read out of their drug wegovy for blood pressure and heart and ferrari, barclays says look, they trimmed their order book. they're just okay about it. strong buy. strong buy. what's happened in the market you have a lot of ferraris, basically hey, you know what, i want to recommend something, this is a high quality name, i felt the way key bank was recommended, bank of america was recommending. there's a lot of out of the fox hole, i don't want to miss the move. let's pick the best one in my group and push it hard. that is a sign of a bullish market, not a bearish market. >> yeah. you're right about that. we can take that to the clorox

of the world. >> didn't screw it up. still have shelf space. recommend clorox. it's not at a premium. a lot of people want to recommend things because they don't want to be left out of the rally. the big top guys, they'll be -- they're all grinches and i don't know how the grinch turn out in that one? i don't know. green eggs and ham, that guy, sam i am. >> what about tonight. >> all right. tonight i have carvana. this is a good example of what i'm talking about. carvana was supposed to go under. i don't know. it ain't going under. it survived. ernie garcia is a survivor. i can't wait to speak to him. he's a very articulate guy for the business. i think that it's very good, i happen to like carmax too. stop fighting it. >> yeah. good ebitda beat last week. >> yes. exactly right. >> busy week. see you tonight. >> a great week. >> "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time. when we come back, the state of travel with the ceo of expedia after the stock did surge friday on earnings. don't go away.

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"squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and we are live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david is on assignment. taking a look at stocks here, s&p 500 continues its rally coming off of last week which was the best of the year, up 0.2%. not quite as strong as we've seen, but a lot of groups in the green, health care, consumer discretionary leading the charge higher. real estate and industrials are the sectors that are lagging. the nasdaq up 0.3%. continuing its rally thanks to the names that are working today in technology, which is a bit higher. treasury yields take a look, part of the story, the rally continues in treasuries. the nasdaq names that are higher, apple, nasdaq, video, meta. the 10-year, 4.64%. well off the highs that we saw in the early part of last week, just trading below 5% on the 10-year. 30 minutes into the trading session, three movers we're watching. dish shares are slumping swinging to a quarterly loss

amid a substantial loss in its paid tv wireless subscribers. stock down 18.5%. bumble shares in the news founder whitney wolfe herd is stepping down, ceo of slack set to take the reigns. and watch citi, reporting that the company is considering job cuts of at least 10% in several major businesses according to sources. we're going to have more on the banks later this hour as well. want to bring in senior markets commentator mike santoli taking a look at, quote, bears on the run this morning, mike, as we try to digest the week that was. big frally in stocks and bonds. as far as what we're watching this week to see if it can continue we don't have much in the way of consumer data. a lot more earnings in the media space and consumer space. we'll get some central bank talk, but just as far as what i'm watching now is now that everyone has decided that major

central banks are done hiking rates, the discussion is moving to when they're going to start cutting rates and there's a chart today about the fact that now the fed is expected to start cutting in june instead of july. so the market moved up a month and that they're expected to do some significant cuts before the end of the year. here's a look. the yellow shows in october how much the market and fed and ecb would be cutting and the blue as of friday. just shows that we're expecting a lot more cuts. almost three maybe by september 2024. i don't know how realistic that is for a fed and an ecb and bank of england that tells us higher for longer but that's the setup and why the market is rallying. >> yeah. it's not clear how likely it is, and that has moved around a lot in the last few months. if july was the final hike, if you can somehow gain some security, and we don't know for sure if they were done in july, historically, the average time between the last hike and first

cut is like six or eight months. i think in the typical cycle, nobody thinks this is a typical cycle, the market is correct to say if the next move is lower, then, you know, you go just over the horizon of what's immediately foreseeable in terms of economic data and maybe we're going to be cutting around that point. but it is one of those things where it's not clear exactly how much of that is really forecast or how much of it is kind of like look at the range of probabilities. after the market moved 6% higher, 6% move in the s&p in a week, is never a fluke, but it does show you just how much people are leaning in the other direction. so we got another late october low, a really strong momentum reversal signal in terms of going from really, really bad market to really hot, really strong market breath. the market needs to cool off after that. the average stock in the s&p retest retested low from last october. all these are positives for saying that is probably a low

that has some credence to it, right. it wasn't just noise. on the other hand we're still in the same zone of we want the economy to slow, but not too much, and you want the economy -- the labor market to hold together, but not so much that the fed is back in the game. we're still trying to thread the needle is the short version. >> if you look at the move in rates, you know, a lot of people were talking about how hedge funds and other speculators just increased their shorts on bonds, even into this rally last week and the move that we saw there, can be explained a lot by positioning. >> yeah. >> covering shorts because everyone was on the wrong side of this trade. we got news that treasury wouldn't have to borrow as much and then news that fed was a little more dovish than expected, then the worst jobs report a triple wham my for the shorts. >> that's always the way it goes. it's like your lost keys are always in the last place you look, you know what i mean? that's always the way it is, is that basically we had three months of concerted selling in

stocks and bonds where basically the sellers were in control and they doubled up on the bets and you get to an extreme. the tension gets released. where we are is the s&p and 10-year treasury yield today where we were in late september, after the prior fed meeting, when we started to get the higher for longer message, worried about supply, so it's, obviously, a little bit fragile balance, but i think that if nothing else, these levels from the first half of this year, 4100 on the s&p, kind of held together and that was really when we started to price in the decent likelihood of a soft landing. >> lot of people are talking about the seasonally strong period of november to december, and then mike wilson of morgan stanley maintains his bearish stance and says bear market rally, 6% move isn't normal. >> it's not normal, and if you look back, there are times when you get the violent rallies. i have not been that hung up in defining whether we're in a bull

or bear market because if we say we're still in a bear market, the mega cap stocks that have gotten us out of that definition, but being in a bear market doesn't mean we go back or make new lows. we've been stuck underneath an all-time high for almost two years now. the nasdaq peaked almost exactly two years ago. you call that whatever you want. we've been in this kind of wide-swinging range. earnings have progressed and tilting higher again. valuations, if there were a problem at one point, they're less so now. even though they're not cheap, i would say they're kind of not the swing factor at the moment. so, you know, it's still going to -- we're going to fight it out on both sides whether we call it a bull or bear market. >> it depends on what happens with bonds. >> that's a big part of it, absolutely. >> so where are we? the dow at six-week highs. s&p and nasdaq at three-week highs. is this rally for real? oppenheimer chief investment strategist john solstice dropped his price frargts 4900 to 4400 and joins us at post nine.

basically where we are right now, did you do that too soon, john? >> you know, i don't think so sara. when i look out, if anything, at that point what we said it was right sizing expectations from that point to the end of the year. i think 4900 probably is still too high if we were back at that, but likely, the 4400 today has a good chance to be surpassed and we would have to think we may have to raise again. our discipline is such that we don't raise our target until our target is surpassed. 4400 was our target for this year that we put in last december, and it was surpassed at the end of june. at that point we had to raise. we took about a month in raise and that powerful rally convinced us 49 looked better, looked possible. it was only 6 to 7% upside from that level where it -- when the rally really had taken off, and as a result of that, the odd

thing is, we're still looking, when we put this new target in last week, or the old target back in, 4400, it was 6 to 7% upside and wham, we had the spectacular rally last week. some of which we suspect was short covering, as some of it was investors looking to buy babies that had gotten thrown out with the bath water, not a bad thing to be doing, and a general feeling that economic data and the fed were pointing to, we were longer into, at this point, over the -- well over the halfway point close to the end of a fed funds hike cycle. >> so does it make you feel better that bonds have moved so strongly in terms of yields? we were at 5%. we're now at 4.6. is that a lot more comfortable place for equities? >> there are less -- it's less likely to say they're competitive with stocks if you look at the potential for stocks to improve with the amount of innovation and discovery that is

occurring within technology that affects all 11 sectors to some extent when we look at it, and our thought is here that, you know, where it is, it's more realistic, we think, and expectations, but i don't think much more of a rally in bonds would be appropriate at this time. who is to say the bond market is going to listen to me? >> well, the argument from those who did close their shorts was that the world is just too dangerous, night. >> yeah. and, you know, the world is always dangerous, carl. you and i know that. it's -- i've been in the business since '83 and i've seen so much trouble, you know, as well as good times, that i've got to say, i have -- i have a belief that business tends to work through it. either goes through challenges or steps around it, and today with technology, what we've seen in the last since 2008 in the last 15 years, has been extraordinary capability of business to surmount a financial crisis as well as what was the

pandemic, which was the first time in 102 years -- >> that's -- i mean the bullish case today is that our corporates are so nimble, that they've already done a lot to brace for the things we're just dealing with now, right? >> exactly. >> that's the margin story about q3. >> very much. just look at this. growth over the -- as of last friday, earnings growth up 2.9% back around 2.1% revenue growth. they were looking for negative 3 consensus was looking coming into this earnings season, so that reflects on a resilient economy and part of that, we give credit to the fed, frankly, and think it's -- it was overstimulation at the fiscal policy level is what took us to record highs in terms of inflation, and the fed had to step in for the financial crisis. otherwise i think we probably would have had a deep recession. >> really quick, did your numbers change for s&p earnings

next year? >> not yet. we have not looked at next year yet. usually it's in december when we finalize our thoughts on what next year is going to look like, but we are expecting the fed will go into a prolonged pause next year in the first -- into the second half of next year with likely a cut by the end of 2024. >> so you're behind the market on that? >> yeah. >> i saw a chart saying the market is expecting a cut by june and a few more cuts before the end of september. >> it sounds a little bit optimistic with inflation as stickier as evidenced when we go shopping at the local stores or when we consider what people are paying for rents, even though they backed off a little. >> yeah. all right. john, thank you for coming in and giving us your updated views. >> always great to be here. as we lead to break, here on "squawk on the street," here's our road map for the hour, the state of travel and the consumer, expedia's ceo joins us on the back of the company's earnings beat. regional banks coming off the best week since november of 2020.

are those names safe to buy again? we'll talk to one analyst who did put out a buy on one name this morning. disney getting a new cfo ahead of earnings this week. the stock getting a price cut. we'll talk to the analyst who made the call about what he's expecting. big show ahead. the dow has gone negative, agdo by caterpillar, goldman sachs and salesforce. stay with us.

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tolls may not be able to renew their registration until outstanding balances are paid. payment assistance is available. visit bayareafastrak.org/ase so go pay your unpaid tolls y and keep your wheels on the ! is it possible my network could take my business to the next level? it is with comcast business. powering all your devices with gig-speed wifi. and you get fast downloads and uploads. pick it up! pick it up! oh we got this! because it's powered by the next generation 10g network. more speed for your business? it's not just possible. it's happening. get started for $59.99 a month for 12 months. plus, ask how to get an $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. comcast business, powering possibilities. welcome back to "squawk on the street." expedia shares higher after seeing the biggest jump in three

years on friday, losing a little gain here, when it did notch a 19% jump. company posted better than expected third quarter numbers. chair and ceo peter kern join us on a first on cnbc interview. great to have you. you guys led the s&p on friday. i wonder if you think people have overdone their worry about the consumer in terms of travel. >> carl, sorry. we were having -- >> yeah. i think consumer travel still looking pretty good. obviously, we saw a little bit of noise. we talked about in october, which felt like a little bit of fallout from what was going on in the middle east. but that's kind of normalized and the consumer seems to be traveling and we're seeing good demand really across the globe. >> i looked at some charts this morning. sort of gauging whether or not corporate is going to rebound the way we were hoping a year and a half ago. are you frustrated at the degree to which corporate travel does

not appear to be tracking leisure? >> yeah. i mean we're not as exposed to it so we don't worry as much as we used to, but we power a lot of corporate travel partners, and it hasn't come back certainly to the prepandemic trends in the same way that leisure has, and people are a little bit concerned about corporate travel in the back end of the year. but it's still pretty robust and i think for us it doesn't make a huge difference, but, of course, we would love to see more travel back and love to see our partners and hotels doing better in that space. there's been a lot to replace it including much more premium leisure travel. conferences are back, so we're seeing the conference business across the board, we hear it from our supply partners that business is back. the day in and day out corporate stuff, which is big business, we would love to see it back at 100%, but doesn't have a huge impact on our business. >> no sign of a slowdown, peter? it is just interesting because airbnb and i think booking both

guided to deceleration in fourth quarter. >> yeah. we have very different business profiles than some of our competitors. they've been quite exposed to asia, where we, frankly, haven't had a big exposure, not that we wouldn't want exposure there. as we've seen the rebound in different geographies you've seen sort of the long tenured covid rebounds like asia was the last to come back, latin america was a little later, so if you were really exposed to those, they came back, you had a nice boost and a good tailwind. most places are starting to normalize now. we're much more highly exposed to the west which normalized earlier. we're excited about the work we've been doing to build our business and improve our technology and help our customers do better and that's starting to show in our loyalty program and product. we're in a different spot coming up on things, whereas some of our competitors are normalizing post the tailwinds. >> what about vrbo?

what does demand there look like, especially with airbnb being more competitive? >> yeah. well, vrbo had a great covid, ve vrbo, i said it like you said it, vrbo did great during covid. we saw a little bit of a pullback post-covid as people went to more cities where vrbo has less product in cities. we're trying to make sure consumers understand that. we went through a big migration which we've talked about where we put vrbo on our main technology stack now, which we finished a few days ago. we're until a nice spot. we feel there where the trends are we believe going to go our way, geopolitical unrest, ironically, usually helps things like v brshgs o to make people comfortable in their own space, that will only help vrbo. the product is improving. we have great supply and, you know, airbnb they do great in

shared spaces and other things we don't do. again, i think that market has kind of topped out and big cities et cetera, we'll see if that continues, and they're more exposed to the lower end of the market because of that because those are inexpensive option, whereas our whole home product tends to appeal to the middle market and upper market and think there's a lot of opportunity there going forward. >> how far out do you think your visibility goes right now? do you have a good window into areas beyond holiday, spring break, summer of next year yet? >> not really. i mean, the rest of the year we have a pretty good idea of the big booking season for most, you know, in most years is really the beginning of the year for the big leisure booking season in the summer, spring and summer trips, so that's true for vrbo and our core hotel and air business as well. you know, we don't really have it way out, but i think for the foreseeable future things look pretty steadied. >> so how do you think investors are processing your story?

you're clearly getting a bullish outlook and your stock trades at less than 12 times next year's earnings lower than competitors like a bookings, for instance. what are they missing on the story? >> i think people have been waiting. we talked about it, but we've been working through our tech transformation for the last several years and consolidated our brands together. we created one loyalty program. these were big changes for us to really change where we were trying to go as a company and when making changes like that it's a messy business and not like a clean, every quarter is perfect, your growth tracks the market perfectly. but what's happened now is i think investors are starting to realize we've done the work, set up well to go forward, in the best position we've ever been technologically, and that's really what the business is about, about having the best product, best service, best loyalty program, best consumer experience, so we've been investing in that for years and i think the market has taken a wait and see attitude and i won't speak about the markets.

we've been happy to buy back our stock cheaply and we think we're still cheap. we're just going to keep doing what we're doing and the market will figure it out. >> i know investors are focused on this one key loyalty program. what are you finding? do people want a points program from expedia? we have them for airlines and we have them for hotels and it's all sort of related. >> yeah. well, first of all, ours is now basically money, so instead of being points, it's really we give you one key cash and you can use it and spend it on anything you want. because we cover virtually everything in travel, you can spend it on literally anything. the idea is that you can participate in our program and other programs. if you buy airline tickets from us, you get your airline points too and you can then use your points with us to go spend it on a hotel, a vrbo, whatever you want. for the first time now v brshgs o has. it it's the only loyalty program and vacation rental. it's better than airbnb and b,

you can spend it for anything. if you earn a bunch of cash on a vrbo use it on an airline ticket or next hotel stay. we think it's the most flexible in the world. we think it gives customers added benefit. not instead of other programs. it's in addition to those programs. and again, we're just trying to reward and give the consumer the best experience we can give them. >> peter, appreciate that very much. especially coming off the quarter and the reaction. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> peter kern. regional banks coming off their best week in years. citigroup considering job cuts. where the financials go from here. we're back in a moment with the dow back in siveerto 35.poti triry

regional banks coming off their best week since november as investors weigh an end to rate hikes in the coming year. leslie picker is here to break down that group. good morning, leslie. >> hey, carl. you can see a little weakness here among regional banks today, but really last week's gains

were due to, you know, some pressure coming off of rates. that's really helped the group over the last week or so. a new note by bank of america this morning says, quote, peak interest rates have the potential to serve as a mini clearing event for bank stocks. there are four main reasons for that. number one, it was clear from q3 earnings that regional margins continue to be squeezed by higher deposit rates correlated with interest rates. the concept of peak rates if true could relieve the funding cost pressures for the banking sector. number two and three are commercial real estate reprising and the potential for credit losses. lower rates make those areas palatable on balance sheets. speaking of, lower rates helped reverse some of the unrealized losses that we've seen over the last few years. according to the fdic, those amounted to more than $558 billion at the end of q2. we'll get q3 composite figures next month from the fdic.

remember, many banks took on more bond investments during the pandemic when they were flush with deposits, but yields were low. but more recently, as yields have soared, the value of fixed rate bonds plummeted, contributing to paper losses for the banks. it's unlikely the losses will be realized but it does impact tangible book value in the meantime. in theory, when you see the rates decline, growth accelerates and you're seeing stock price reaction there, guys. >> thank you very much. our flex guest upgrading keycorp to outperform, raising the price target to 15 from 12.50 and covers citigroup with news there today. david conrad, managing director at a stifel company. keycorp has been one of the -- actually the bottom, hardest hit bank stock this year besides comerica down 35%. why upgrade now? >> i think actually leslie hit a few points in the intro.

one of the main concerns with keycorp is the capital and the impact of aoci or the negative bond marks placed on capital. we feel for names beat up on capital but have lower credit risks the end of last week the economic data we got was a game changer. increased productivity report we got and the weaker jobs report put the pressure on -- off of the higher rates. so that should allow capital to rebuild more quickly and certainly as these bonds have a better value, but with keycorp it's a little more interesting as well because they are materially under earning from some short-term derivatives and bonds that mature over the next four quarters, and as those mature, their average yield is under 50 basis points. our eps estimate for 1 q 2024 to 4 q '24 goes up as the bonds

reprise. >> we need bond yields to have topped for the curve to work, night. >> i think that's right for the capital concerns, so if we enter a period of stability here, i think the capital concerns will start to ease. the eps lift will actually occur during just as the runoff of these low yielding bonds occur. >> you mention in the note the discount to jpm. i wonder what you made of dimon's reported sale of stock the other day? >> i think it's a bit of a headwind. if you go back to a competitor's conference i think jamie was quoted saying he wouldn't be a buyer of most bank stocks right now, but this is a bit of an overhang, i think we have to be fair, he's never sold any stock in his career and, obviously, he's -- he has some other estate planning issues to deal with

towards the end of the reign, i guess. >> you cover citi, so i'm curious what you made of a cnbc report, hugh sun reporting layoffs of 10% in some departments as part of the recently announced restructuring program. i talked to jane fraser about it a few weeks ago, wasn't ready to put a number on it, said that will come towards the fourth quarter. does this number make sense? does it make the stock attractive? >> i think it definitely helps. i think part of our concern is really heavy investment cycle in citi, updating technology, and part of the headwinds here is that they sold a lot of consumer assets to beef up capital right at the time where basel iii end game comes out which kind of offsets some of that benefit. i think that's been a near-term headwind. i think they talk about bending the curve on expenses. part of our concern is that just on legacy sales or in the core

business? i think this helps us get more visibility that it will be on the core business not just asset sales. >> david, thank you very much for joining us on the call today. david conrad. let's get a news update with our silvana henao. hi. >> carl, good morning. the secretary of state says the u.s. is working almost every single minute to make diplomatic progress in the israel-hamas war. secretary blinken called a humiditypen pause on strikes in gaza a work in progress but said the u.s. is in talks with israel. >> we've engaged the israelis on steps that they can take to minimize civilian casualties. >> blinken said the u.s. remains focused on freeing hostages and getting more aid into gaza in the coming days. meanwhile, israel's military is urging people to move south. military officials say troops have split gaza into two and civilians will be allowed to evacuate the north along a main

highway. donald trump's 250 million civil fraud trial is getting under way in new york. the former president is on the stand today to deliver testimony to a packed courtroom. trump's adult sons testified last week. his daughter ivanka will testify on wednesday. back over to you. >> thanks. still to come this morning, media stocks in correction. disney and warner brothers discovery shares far off their highs. the playbook on both names going into earnings when we're back in a couple minutes.

disney naming a new c for. pepsi's hugh johnston taking over the same job. warner brothers discovery reporting results as the writers strike continues. the studio make their last, best and final off he was to the writers guild. joining us jason who cut his price target on disney to 110 from 120, maintaining a buy rating. for perspective on hugh, as you

know i've covered pepsi and hugh for a while, 55 straight quarterly beats is not a shabby record for a cfo. that's hugh's legacy over at pepsico. i guess, jason, disney could use that. do you look at him as a ceo contender? >> no, but i think the things going on with disney have less to do with managerial changes and much bigger fish to fry in terms of the core business and fundamentals. >> right. but i think the hugh news is good for disney and bob iger. he's a seasoned cfo in america. it was on the other side of a nelson peltz battle with pepsi when nelson wanted to break up the company in two, it's interesting given nelson's involvement in pepsi, i mean in disney right now. where do you think that goes? >> i think that's a good point. it felt like sort of the

activist narrative sort of moved to the background, but does feel like it's gained more momentum and i think that speaks to my point, is that disney has to prove a lot of other things to sof right the ship and move in the right direction, particularly as it relates to their dtc business. if they can do that, it takes a lot of wind out of the sails out of the activist narrative. >> what do you expect for earnings this week and do you expect to see any progress on that front? >> i think the earnings will be pretty much down the fairway. we've seen that from our media companies. the stock reaction has been positive on the media print because the sentiment is so negative on the buy side across all of media, you don't have to do a lot to get a relief rally in these names. disney is less about the quarter, it's really more about articulating to the street what the streaming narrative is. if you look at disney's stock, the consensus has earnings, you know, moving up from the high 3s to sort of $5 a share, over the

next few years, but there's essentially no earnings power coming from the streaming business, right. the street is in the mood if they don't want to pay for anything, don't want to ascribe value to anything that generates earnings power and what that means is two years forward disney's streaming business according to street numbers and our numbers isn't generating appreciable earnings which means you're getting all the streaming assets for free. that's the opportunity. >> i think it was one of your peers on the street the other day just looking at the prospect of asset sales at disney, and i think the word they used was nebulous in terms benefits of a buyer of espn would get. are you of that view? >> well, we're not focused on a sale of espn. i mean, i think that the company has been quite clear about that. the asset sales that i think are being talked about make a lot of sense, which is abc. for espn, i think disney is contemplating something different, not a sale of espn,

but essentially pursuing equity ownership, presumably by the leagues, to insulate disney from getting into a bidding war for sports rights down the road. >> i mentioned a strike. it's the actors strike that has the last, best, and final offer now. i think i said writers. they're back. >> yes. >> how are -- how is it accumulating as far as the pain for a company like a disney or a warner at this point, now 114 days in? >> i would say there has not been a lot of pain. you know, we -- there's secular pressures in the ecosystem that have not gotten worse in the wake of the strike. the free cash generation has been a bit better because of the strike. investors are smart enough to know it's transitory. most investors i speak with believe that the actors strike will get resolved in the fourth quarter, and we should be back. the broader point, and i think this is right, is that we're not really talking about large dollar amounts here on either

side. you know, this is not going to break the bank, no matter how this gets settled. what street wants is to get it behind us to remove one variable from the playing field because we have enough variables as it is. >> although, people look at the auto strike and think about scarring on the industry or on the business model over the long term and some of the refrench -- re trenching it's prodding on the ev front top do you see analogs to the actors' side where evs are streaming instead? >> i don't. it's simply because all of these contracts are really negotiating sort of the minimums in the industry, which are not needle moving, so i think it's quite different on the auto side where you're talking about wages for everybody. this is a different animal. i think the pain has been maybe a little less visibility to the street because everyone has content sitting in the cloud

that makes this a little bit easier to navigate as a consumer and doesn't alter the fundamentals as appreciably as it might have five or ten years ago. >> thank you for joining us to discuss some of the big movers in media this week. it's going to be -- we'll get a lot of news. jason from citi, thank you. >> you bet. speaking of management changes and shakeups, bumble shares on news ceo whitney wolfe herd is stepping down. you've interviewed her a bunch of times. does this come as a surprise? >> you know, this has been a company that's been around for nearly a decade and i have to say, sara, i did speak to whitney wolfe herd and lidiane jones who is replacing her in the ceo role. here's what's happening now. wolfe herd is stepping into an executive chair role and the new ceo as of january 2nd will be lidiane jones, currently the ceo of slack. i just spoke to both of them. wolfe herd telling me in this new executive chair role she will focus on the company's

brand mission on what the future of love and relationships will look like and how the company will fit into that, plus public policy and social impact. remember she spearheaded laws to battle the sharing of lewd pictures online specifically in dating apps. jones told me that she will use her expertise as a product and engineering leader to focus on bumble's tech stack, ai and innovation. the two women telling me their skills are very much complimentary and they will be partnering on the future of bumble. i asked both if this has to do with a decline of the stock. the shares are down about 44% in the past 12 months and she said this transition is entirely about the long-term vision for the company. i'm sure we'll hear a little bit more about the long-term vision and more from wolfe herd when the company reports its earnings tomorrow after the bell. >> $2 billion market cap here, julia. have they talked about their willingness to consider m&a in

the past? >> you know, they haven't talked much about m&a in the past. remember this isn't just the bumble app. this is bumble plus baidu, which is a big dating app in europe and making other acquisitions to round out the offers that they have for the whole dating ecosystem including a new app they acquired that's about maintaining the relationship once in one. i think they see this now as sort of a building opportunity and the fact that they have this strength both in europe and with bumble which continues to expand internationally, that they don't see this as being a time to sell. they have been rivals with match group against tinder since the company was founded. >> two things stand out, julia. first of all just how young and impressive wolfe herd is. she's 34. i think she was one of the youngest female billionaires, self-made. >> and the youngest woman to take a company public. >> right.

but the stock price. i'm looking at the stock price since she did take it public, it's amazing. it was in the 80s. it's now below $13 a share. why is that? >> well look, there's so much competition in this space and i think, look, we'll have to see what earnings show next -- tomorrow after the bell, but there's been a lot of concern about competition with match, but also how much are people willing to spend on these subscription services. is dating something that people will find for free once they're out in the world or find effectively for free on instagram or some of these other platforms? i think that's really what the focus is going to be on tomorrow when they report, not just the opportunity around advertising and the rest, but the real core part of the business which is this premium service that people will pay for, how much are people willing to pay for a dating service. how big is the addressable market. where else can this company expand? is there a market in bumble biz, which is their business

connecting platform or bumble bff a friend finding platform, so what are the other places they can expand to and how strong and big is the addressable market for the core dating business? >> all right. thank you. i know we'll be talking about how ai is going to transform dating too. julia boorstin on bumble. pretty muted open here this morning. dow up 41. still around 4365 on the s&p. sector wise a bit of a mixed bag today, although the vix awfully close to 15 this morning. we'll take a break and be right back.

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the president is talking about how, you know, free speech is so important which is why we've done nothing on students

shouting free palestine from the river to the sea, which is known okay, you know, if people were talking about lynching members of the black community that would not be permitted speech on campus. we're saying let's throw out lbgtq people, let's, you know, throw them off into the sea. we just -- that would not be permitted speech on harvard and i can't imagine permitted speech elsewhere. the fact it's allowed to continue okay and the university does nothing, that's when, you know, what started out as legitimate criticism of israel and there's nothing wrong with being critical of israel, okay, and you should be able to say whatever you want which is critical of israel, it's another thing when talking about, you know, eliminationist talk, right, destroying a people and ethnic group. that's genocide. >> pershing square's big ackman to discuss the rising tide across the country over the weekend. he penned a letter to harvard,

his alma mater, calling for her to take steps to reduce anti-semitism on campus and he's just the latest i think in a series of steps he's trying to fight here, on moral clarity. he's walking the walk, visited harvard and talked to these groups including jewish students to hear it. i think he's highlighting something that might be able to resonate with companies and ceos across the board, which is there's been so much focus on these dei programs, diversity, equity, inclusion. they've been focused on lack of representation in groups, but not really on minorities. and i think that bill is highlighting this in terms of protecting free speech, but also for dei groups that should include, you know, jewish kids or jewish employees who feel they're being targeted. it should be no different than the black community or the lgbtq

community. i think companies are going through a little reflection on these dei units as well. it's something i hear off the record. >> his criticism comes after being years of an outspoken advocate and proponent for harvard and harvard business school. when we did our documentary several years ago, bill was a big part of it. to hear him talk about this in this way comes with -- >> he's not the only one. >> yeah, a large part of legitimacy. >> the wexner foundation and others. the harvard president, i can't even count how many statements she's had to put out in the wake of the october 7th terrorist attacks because she has not been strong enough in condemning it. these colleges, want be just harvard, have a real problem with anti-semitism. and i think the more people like ackman, which pressure them, hopefully they can do some intro specs and fight them. it's not free speech when you're talking about hate speech. when we come back, the ceo of mondelez showing no slowdown in demand for snacks. we'll break it all down and

where the business goes from here with dirk van de put. that kicks off at 11:00 a.m. dow's up 20 points. unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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on the 30-year fixed, mortgage rates have made a sharp u-turn in recent days. die an no olick joins us with more on that. >> mortgage rates started dropping at the beginning of last week in anticipation of the fed taking a pause in rate hikes. so the 30-year fixed started on monday last week at 7.92%. it began to slide a bit tuesday, then a 19-basis-point drop wednesday after the fed paused fed hikes and another 18 basis points thursday as the markets digested that. friday, 13 points more after the jobs report came in, signaling a cooling economy. that's 50 basis points or half a percentage point in just one week and that rarely ever happens. if you're buying a $400,000 home with 20% down on a 30-year fixed, your monthly payment is $119 lower today than it was just last monday. so, what does that mean for the fall housing market? well, it may help on the edges,

maybe, but it's certainly not going to get the market moving again. why? because sky high home prices. the last time affordability was this bad was in the 1980s when rates were in the double digits and the average home cost three and a half times the median income. today the average home costs six times the median income. average growth accelerated to 3.4%. now, that said, redfin reported nearly 7% of for sale homes posted a price drop during the four weeks ending october 29th. we'll see if we don't get some relief at least on prices going forward. back to you guys. >> finally. thank you, diana. one more thing before we go, and that is, f1, brazil's brand prix wrapped up with 14 of the 20 drivers finishing. next up on the circuit, las vegas. we're two weeks away from the city's debut race. we'll dive so deep into this, carl, because we have a new cnbc

documentary "inside track:the business of formula 1" that premieres on november 16th at 8:00 p.m. eastern/pacific. that's ahead of the las vegas grand prix. i'm sure you were watching brazil this weekend. >> of course, i was. amazing. >> what happened is max verstappen won. he's won a record 17 races this season. he's completely dominated for red bull. we dive into this question of whether that's good or bad for the sport to have the same guy and the same team winning every single race. now, the battle for two and three were exciting, but that is one of the criticisms right now. it's a big business story. >> i have a feeling i'm going to learn a lot more in the coming days. we can't wait. "squawk on the street" continues after this. don't go away

. good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" from post 9 of the new york stock exchain. bill rudin on the state of commercial real estate and the current interest rate environment. plus, the succession plans at his own firm. >> nmondelez ceo discusses the quarter and whether they're seeing any ozempic