a slow sufcation in the economy. thank you. >> pick your horror movie analogy. the dow has gone back into the green. we started with a gain of 106 at the highs, turned negative, now up by 12. >> thanks so much for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine of the stock exchange. mark lasry with us in a bit and his new sports fund as he looks for new investment opportunities. in the meantime the make or break hour begins with the bull case for stocks and why some argue the rally into year end could be getting started. your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. a much needed and deserved breather after putting in the best week of the year. small caps leading declines today after a solid five-day stretch. your score card as it looks.

the russell giving back about 1.25%. muted gains elsewhere. yields are bouncing a bit today following their rapid decline last week. that's the 10-year, 4.66. our talk of the tape. setup for stocks and whether it has improved enough to support a rally into the end of the year. let's ask anastasia with me at post nine. welcome back. >> good to see you. >> the essential question. does that mean our chances of a year-end rally have improved? >> i think they have. i think they're back on. over the last couple weeks or months we had a lot to worry about, specifically we're worried about what the fed is going to do, about the upward move in rates across the curve, the treasury and where the borrowing estimates are going to be, but we put a lot of those worries to rest last week and when i come into this week what i think the slate is now clear for is seasonality. seasonality is the strongest in november, it's the strongest in december, and something like 75%

of the time stocks rally in november and december. what about the 30% that it doesn't happen and what i will say to that is what is the catalyst today? i think the catalyst is still the economy not falling apart and maybe there's a recession in the cards at some point in 2024 but not today. >> marco, jpmorgan, puts a note out saying falling bond yields and dovish central bank meeting are interpreted as a positive in the near term, however we leave equities will revert back to an unattractive risk-reward as the fed is set to remain higher for longer, pricing power waning, profit margins at risk and a slow down set to continue. those are reasonably valid points. >> i think that is likely to be the story of 2024. i share the concern that 2023 was a soft landing year and everything worked out perfectly, but in 2024 f rates do remain at

current levels marco is right, it is going to be harder for companies to, for example, to repay their debts, to pay the interest rate that's 5.25%. it's more difficult, whether you have leverage loans, whether you have fixed rate debt you need to finance and as that plays out, that's likely to be the case. what i want to do today is decouple the trading view versus what i want to position, how i want to approximation my portfolios for 2024 and that's why today i still think, you know, we bounce off from current levels still, given the seasonality and buybacks, but if we get the bounce back, perhaps you use that to your advantage and position conservatively for '24. >> interesting how you break it down. i like the way you say that. this was the soft landing. >> right. >> people thought we would be in a recession because of the move from the fed and how quickly and how much they raised interest rates, but we're going to pay the piper, it's just pushed off further. is that a get while the getting is good over the next couple of

months and then all bets are off? >> yeah. i mean our crystal ball is becoming murkier and maybe a story of the next couple months. we looked at, again, the size of the debt piles that need to be refinanced in 2024, whether it's the government or the corporates or whether it's the banks. all of that is going to have to come to be a refinance. to me, you know, in order to say we have an all clear on stocks to go all-in we have to have a fed pivot and the fed say we are going to cut rates in 2024 and/or we're going to potentially slow down quantitative easing. if you don't get that, i think it is going to be harder and harder and the risks of the recession have been pushed off but not been canceled. i would say the longer rates stay at this elevated level the more the risks build. that's how things work. >> why does the fed have to be explicit saying we're going to cut rates? if we already think their next move is a cut why do they have to say our next move is a cut? >> that's the thing that's

challenging for markets. they're not going to say that. that's what the markets want them to do. that's when you would buy the dip. >> we assume the next move is a done. >> we assume. we also assumed we're going to cut by 100 bp basis points and we had to reprise. we're likely going to see higher charge off, delinquency and bankruptcies and once there's enough evidence so to speak, the fed is going to move on that. that point is not today. some time most likely in 2024. >> what takes us to the rally to the end of the year? is it what got us here in the first place? mega cap tech or do we have a broadening of the rally, last week, we had a really huge bounce in small caps, for example, now they're given 1.25% back today. where do i want to place my bets over the next six weeks? >> i am still in the mega cap tech camp and the reason is,

everybody sold tech because we worry about bond yields. maybe there's some sort of valuation impact, but big tech is where people have the most conviction right now on being able to ride out whatever growth slowdown we're going to have in 2024 and that's what the price action has suggested. every time somebody steps in and sells tech somebody bias it. multiples at 24. average earnings growth frp mega cap it's 16%. why would i want to bother with small caps where you have financial exposure, we have leverage exposure. you go where you have the highest conviction trade. >> let's bring in nicole webb at post nine. welcome back. the market has this right, yes or no? >> you know, we find ourselves in -- i'm going to agree with most of what's been said thus far. there is a strong case for a bull story, the duration of it

in question, but there's no doubt that interest rate stability creates a platform or catalyst for market confidence. the trickle down through into small caps through last week, to us it's a little bit early for that. yes, we believe that valuations in small cap look favorable, but are we ready? no. in the next six-week time frame you brought up, yes. m&a mega tech remains the place of most confidence. when the bears bring up to us the story of the debt, the debt, the issue of the debt, we look and say okay, if we have interest rates below 5, oil below 100, stability from a rate perspective, then the lever left to pull to offset debt is growth. what has been the craze, the catalyst we've seen ten names take off is ai. what does ai lend to across all sectors? productivity. productivity numbers have not recharged yet. we're still very much in the

camp that this could be the roaring '20s of productivity. we're just a couple years away from that. >> you're not as concerned about the deficit as some others are, even as they suggest the charts, so to speak, of the cost of funding the deficit are i think in stan druckenmiller's words scary. he's not the only one that has that view, and rates may not be at 5% but they're not that far away either. >> absolutely. i think there's a couple things going on here. when you think about -- when you think about yields they have to be high enough people are willing to take the 10-year and stick to the duration of it. they have to be -- if they can come down some it's cheaper to service our debt. if we think about it, there's only three ways to offset government debt -- inflation, taxation and growth. there is the opportunity for growth. that has been the energy behind the market thus. >> if you think, we are, as some bears would suggest, late cycle, so like a fly in the ointment of

that view, do you think we're late cycle or not? you must not? >> i would tend to say no. i think this is -- we have to look towards a different playbook and there's curiosity within our firm around to what extent can you say the fed is battling the re-acceleration of inflation from the 1970s when the thing we're talking about often, certainly in the first part of this year and then again in the last month, has been the contraction in m-2. they're not identical and the volume of money could be part of that conversation, but i think to just hold tight into the bear camp going into 2024, could not prove night okay. do you think that earnings are where they should be? estimates are for '24? are they too elevated? so i think they're okay for now and this economy is not going to fall apart over the next couple months. for example, if you look at 2024 they went from 12% to 11% and maybe that seems fair, but i do

think there's a lot more going on when you look at the micro. when i look at earnings revisions we went through paerds of time in the third quarter where earnings revisions were out. we flip right back and the negative earnings revisions are once again taking hold. >> susisn't that a problem? bob pisani had a piece where something like 60% of the companies that had reported up to a certain period of last week had earnings revisions that were down. that's not a problem? >> i think that's, again, a concern going into 2024. you know, i think what market is going to focus on right now is the consumption story and, for example, when you -- it's not a taylor swift summer again in the fourth quarter but if i look at the real-time real world consumption, today it is still tracking a little bit slower than it was this time last year but still on decent pace. i do, scott, think at some point, as there is going to be more concerns about the economy,

that 1112,% earnings growth number for next year does have to come down b, but does victimo this quarter? >> you're painting a scenario in which the consumer is strong enough to keep those stocks doing well? no? >> no. there's the top line, right. i do think the consumer can sort of drive the top line for some of the corporations but at the same time if you look at leverage ratios for the consumer staple companies or consumer discretionary they have to pay more on floating rate or fixed rate debt. oil prices have retraced but they're still elevated versus where we started the year and that's the consumption tax weighing on the consumer. a lot of consumption was financed by credit cards. people are paying 21% on the credit card balances if they're carrying them. the consumer story doesn't fall apart but does get weaker. >> what's your take on the consumer? >> certainly the consumer is weakening and there's -- we knew that the money would make its

way through the system. the money being money that was, you know, brought into the system during covid. where i think we have to be careful in stepping too far away and again, plays more into this positive outlook for 2024 or at least the opportunity for it, is these companies haven't been rewarded in 2023. we talk generally about the market and at the same time we know the market, the s&p 500, has really been driven by the top ten names. when we go back at some point we have to revise our thinking to say, if today this is trading at its five-year, 10-year, one standard deviation away from that mean, then if it hits the lowest level of earnings potential, there's opportunity set there. and so when we think about estimates for 2024, and we think about a fed that perhaps has the opportunity to be more nimble, meaning if they were late to fight inflation, are they early to say this is different and

start to loosen to see what the experience of that re-acceleration of inflation is. again, i just don't want to get too one sided in our positioning for the year ahead without remaining kind of at least leaving some opportunity on the table for it to be positive. >> what i've heard the last couple weeks is that there's never been, some have used this phrase, never been a more attractive time for the 60-40 portfolio, that bonds are attractive, stocks attractive. can you make a credible case that stocks are as good a value right now as bonds? how would you assess that? >> i can't make the case that bonds are a good value and i think bonds may be a good value in the front end of the curve, especially if the fed is going to start to cut interest rates, but i'm not sure bonds are a great value in the back end of the curve. why would bonds value? growth fell apart and we went into a recession, that's not imminent. what you have pushing against that you have quantitative

tightening and the fed buying at the same time where we're issuing a record amount of coupons. that suggests that we might have push and pull in the long end of the curve and bonds are not necessarily going to rally. i'm not in the camp of the 40% is sort of in a great state. from the stock perspective, it depends on what stocks and i also can't say that we're at an absolute just go all-in to stocks because valuations have pulled back, but they're 5, 10-year averages. i think there's pockets you can get a stock at an attractive price to earnings ratio adjusted for growth. i want to look into those pockets. those are in artificial intelligence, those pockets are in mega caps. as i think about portfolio construction for next year i think money markets still have a big role to play. i think short duration fixed income has a role to play. high quality profitable tech stocks. the other thing to complement the 60-40 is private credit. private credit is yielding close to 12%.

it is floating rate. it doesn't have duration exposure. over the last 17 years, only one of those years was negative in 2008. so i think that's a great place to be to complement that 60-40. >> an tash ya paints a picture of competition that exists, whether cash or in the short end of the treasury curve and then mega cap, what that leaves out are the still deemed to be too risky because of the cyclical nature of a lot of stocks the s&p 493. when there is a credible case made those are the ones you want to move into? you want to move out of cash. bonds aren't so attractive, mega caps are exhausted and that's where all the flows have gone it's time to play for the, you know, the other side of whatever level of slowdown we get in the economy? >> and i think this is where i would say that the 60-40 does have a lot of opportunity. in the last 20 years we vice

president had a moment in time like this for as many opportunities for income. whether you seek investment in the private credit market we're aligned contextually there or the opportunity in the 493 other companies, this is certainly a stock picker's market. at the same time you can be earning money on your short duration money and for some people where it makes sense for them and their risk profile, they gobbled up the 10-year at 5%. so again, it's just an opportunity set across asset classes that we haven't seen really in the last decade, so when you think about construction of portfolio today, i believe for myself the advisors at our firm we have more options for the optionality of how to position yourself going forward. more as investors than as a trader. >> what about alternatives? where we last saw each other was in beverly hills at the case conference. she talks about private credit. some suggested 60-40 isn't right

to be 60-40. smaller allocation to one and upped allocation some people have zero, maybe 20% alternatives? >> i think fundamentally this is where we see most of our clients slightly detached from the private market in terms of a lack of awareness that we have less publicly traded companies today and the notion that there are three times as many public or private companies available for investment and that lack of mark to market liquidity, again, all very valuable. again, as options available to more people in this moment in time that just haven't been readily available previously. >> i think this is a return to the old normal regime of higher rates and we can count on the 40 to diversify the 60. alternatives can be the toolkit investors need. >> thanks so much. great talking with both of you. let's goat our question of the day. we want to know, following the best week of the year for stocks, are you more optimistic

about the chances of a year-end rally. head to @cnbcclosingbell on x to vote. top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is back with us today. hey. >> hi. i want to start with dish network having its worst day ever and trading at its lowest level since 1998. the company says its ceo will have to step down and replaced by echo star ahead of the planned merger. the stock is down 35% for dish. echo starr is firmly lower after the satellite giant posted a sharp revenue decline and see echo star down 32%. dish and echo star report declining subscriber numbers. d.a. davidson upgrading booking to buy. analysts like bookings third-quarter results and want to take advantage of the stock's lackluster appearance in october. shares are up 4%. >> thank you. we are just getting started here and we have a big interview

coming up. exclusive, billionaire investor mark lasry joins us at post nine to tell us what he's forecaforecasting and finding new opportunities as well. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. we're seeing a about bit of a comeback after the major averages notched their best week of the week last week. bring in marc lasry, ceo of avenue capital group. welcome back. >> thank you. >> feel like it's been a while since we've discussed the

markets. here we are. do you think the fed is done? have we come to the end of the long and winding road? >> i think we are. if they raise it's max another quarter point. i mean i think you're pretty much at the end, and now we're all going to wait and see how the economy does. it's funny, if you talk to anybody, they'll tell you things aren't that great, but if you look at the numbers, the numbers are telling you things are much better. it's kind of odd. >> the people you hang out with, they generally think, you know, things aren't that great, but, you know, they're still putting money to work. >> they are? >> various places which we'll get to. do you think we've seen a peak in interest rates or no? >> i do. i actually do. i would be surprised if the fed keeps on raising. they only will if they see that economy is still growing at 4%. everybody was shocked that it was. the fact that fed didn't raise because of that, actually is really interesting. so that means they're seeing

that things are a little bit slowing down. if you're growing at 1 or 2% that's fine. then you're not worried and don't knees to keep raising rates. >> if somebody feels this feels like goldilocks which you heard after the employment report how would you respond? the fed is done, economy hanging in there, labor market is cooling a little bit, unemployment rate ticks up 0.1. does it sound like that or too far fetched to suggest? >> i think people believe that. i don't disagree with you. my view is that because of where things are, it's going to take a while for the economy to slow down. as it does, you're going to have to find the fed lowering rates to get things going again. but it's fine. like, if you're flat up 1, down 1, it's fine. what the fed doesn't want is us growing at 4%. >> how would you assess the job that jay powell did or still doing? they're not -- he's not standing there declaring victory, but if

i would have told you 18 months ago fed will hike by more than 500 basis points in 18 months and we will be talking about the kind of growth in the economy that we still have, you would have said what? you're crazy? >> yeah. i would have asked, you know, where we -- what institution are we putting you in? that wouldn't have made any sense. >> does it make sense now how we've remained as strong as we have in the face of all that? >> i'm surprised. what i know is we're lending money at like 10 to 15%. >> still? >> yeah. people are having a hard time borrowing, so there are issues within the economy. if you're a good company you've got no issues, but if you've got a problem here or there, nobody wants to lend. that's why they're coming to firms like us here and in europe. there's issues, and the question is, is that going to get worse or will it sort of stay there?

i'll be surprised if it doesn't get worse. i hope it stays where it is. as we all do. >> i've run into a lot of people lately in that business. it's one of the hottest areas, private credit, direct lending. do you see that as well? more firms and people you know who are, you know, competitors in some respects to what you do are doing that? >> i do. the reason for that is because there's so much demand. nobody is coming in and whoever is coming in is able to lend money. what we're finding is you've got more people who need money and less banks who actually are lending, so that's sort of why you have this opportunity. the market is a vacuum. we're all stepping in and that's the issue, is banks should be doing this, but they're not. >> what's your assessment of the banking system right now? i mean, you point regional banks have been probably the most acute point of concern since

silicon valley bank. that seems to be where a lot of concern about real estate lies and refinancing and the like. what's your assessment there? >> i think there's massive issues. there are. the problem is, and the way you solve those issues is, you keep extend. those banks are not selling the loans because the market price for the loans is lower and they would have to take a bigger hit. in essence what they're doing is going to keep extending. that's how you sort of push the problem off, but if you have to mark to market, like we all do, you don't have a problem. the fed doesn't want that problem. so therefore, they'll let the banks keep doing what they're doing. >> what do you do? you keep pushing it off in hopes that rates come down and the economy stays strong enough? >> you hope as rates come down, right, as the economy will start picking back up, if you can push

it off two or three years you should be okay. that's what happened in 2008. 2008-2009, if banks had been forced to sell, they were going to go below their capital requirements. the fed didn't force them to sell and banks kept pushing it off and then the economy and lower rates save them. everybody is hoping the same thing is going to happen again. >> do you think people are making too much of an apocalypse coming in real estate and commercial real estate or no? you've heard that for the last six months at least. >> i think they are. just simply because there's event that will force a bank to sell other than the fed and the fed is not doing that. if you're not forced to sell you're fine. look at your house. if i said your house is worth a certain amount and you have to sell it within 24 hours or you're going to lose money on whatever it's worth because you don't have the time to do it, if i said you have two years you have the luxury of time and you

can wait and listen to offers. that's what's happening on a global scale. because none of the money center banks are forcing the regional banks to sell those loans. >> are we on sort of like, you know, like an hourglass that's now turned upside down and the fed starts -- it's a big hourglass, you know, and the economy stayed stronger than anybody suggested but is it a matter of time before the sand goes out or do we get a chance to turn it over in do you think we're going to have a recession in '24 or no? >> i think we will. i think a recession,remember, is two down quarters. that's the only thing that will force the fed to lower rates. if you don't have that rates stay where they are and the problem is rates where they are today is causing issues for consumers and it's causing issues for companies. it's literally buy a house, it costs you twice as much as it did a year ago because rates

have doubled in a year. people can't afford that, so it's cause something problems and that's sort of why you will have a recession whether a year from now or not. >> what about corporate bonds? we talk a lot about direct lending. it's been lucrative for the last however many years that we've been having these conversations. i saw a story double line capital making its most aggressive bet on high quality corporates in years, wagering that the highest yield since the global financial crisis will offset risks posed bay slowdown. what do you think? >> it's interesting. the question is, is he getting paid enough for that risk. >> must think he is. >> he's thinking i'm getting paid x and the default rate is lower, so i should do that trade. >> maybe thinking like triple b orz lower. not a-rated bonds. >> is he leveraging that? if he is that's how he's generating the returns. we look at it the same way but

not leveraging it but getting paid 10 to 15 and the risk of default is small because of where we are in the capital structure. he's going to do it with public bonds. i bet he's going to leverage that a little bit, but he's also thinking, look, the economy will be fine. it will be flat. we're not going to have a recession. if we do it's mild. i'm getting paid a lot for that risk. >> i was going to ask you what the default rate is on the direct lending you're doing, but you're so high up on the structure that's not a concern at all. >> not right now. for us the default rate will be like half of 1% or 1%. you're getting paid too much for the default rate to be there. >> we'll take break. don't go anywhere. we will speak more with marc lasry about his sports fund. talk about the investments he's ki wn ce ckn "closing bell." (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique.

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we're back. marc lasry still with us.

launched a sports investment fund working with the biggest names across sports. why a sports fund? >> there's a lot of opportunity there. new leagues, new teams. it's my view of it was that the nba and other leagues will keep on growing, but i think they'll grow where they had over the last 20 years around 10% a year. that's great. i think you'll have opportunities in newer leagues where you can grow at multiples of that. >> you mean the tase of pulling a lasry with buying into the bucks where you did and selling it for like seven or eight times r over? >> i think it's really hard to do that over the next ten years. a team will be worth more, i would surprised if it's worth seven times. >> how big is the target for the size of the fund? can you say? >> yeah. we've got a cap of $2.5 billion. >> and how far are you along that road? >> so i think we'll have a first

closing in about a month and then continue to do that. but we've already committed to buy a number of franchises or teams in the last months, so we've been really busy. >> speaking of, you bought a tgl team, san francisco, right? >> we did. >> steph curry, klay thompson, iguodala. >> andre is on it. >> on "halftime" we spoke with rory mcillroy, tom werner and here's what rory said. >> we're trying to bring the game of golf into the 21st century. i think a lot of people will connect with the fact that we're playing indoors. it will look nothing like traditional golf. it will look more like an nba game hopefully. >> what do you think of that. what's the attraction for this league to you? >> i think what they're trying to do and, obviously, i'm a believer because i ended up

buying one of the teams -- >> what did you say? can you say in. >> it was less than $100 million. >> that's fair enough. between 90s and 100? >> i'll say it was less than 100. >> okay. >> at least give me a ball parkway. >> that's more than warner was willing to tell me. i appreciate that. the attraction of it? >> the attraction is simple, what we're trying to do is make golf available to watch for people over two hours, do it in prime time where it's virtual so you're going to see the players hitting the ball right away, and then they step up. you're not wasting -- i shouldn't say wasting time, not watching people walk, right. i think one of the problems people have with golf, unless a huge golf fan, it takes too long. we're trying to have a league where everything will happen within two hours. and i think that's what's going to hopefully appeal to people

and we'll see. that's the bet. i think you will find people's attention span is actually short sore they will want to be involved in something like this. we have all the best golfers, rory is in it, tiger, a number of other golfers, so i think it's got the possibility of being something shuge. >> steph is prolific and a great golfer. how did this happen? >> we've been friends for a while. i think he's exactly what you said, he loves golf. something for him, made a lot of sense. i would love to tell you that it's really steph and i on the golf course playing all the time. he's scratch, and i'm probably 100. i don't think it's that enjoyable. but i think part of it is something he's interested, and he also believes that this league will be something that's different and appeal to more people. >> i looked at the list of athletes you have and they're a cross section and globally,

harry kane, global football star, candace parker, basketball player in her right. did the athletes put up their own money to be a part of this fund and what sort of return on investment can they expect do you think? >> hopefully we'll make -- the goal on any fund is to make two times what you invested. so the question is, is that over three years, five years or ten years? you would like it to be in the smallest amount of time period. i think for the people who are part of it they will be putting in some of their money and they'll be involved in helping us find new deals. lauren holiday has been great because she's been helping us on women's soccer and we've been involved in that. candace parker has been helping us on things we're trying to do on the wnba. so everybody is getting involved in different things. harry kane has been helping us on teams that we're looking at, you know, football teams for america's soccer teams, football teams in with europe. it's been extremely interesting

and fun so far. >> you still -- you're still involved in pickleball, right? >> yes. >> i asked the guys this afternoon the same type of question, but the, you know, all of these second and third tier as you would call them sports, and the still fixed number of eyeballs everybody is going after, and the confidence that you must have that there are enough eyeballs that can watch pickle or pidel or whatever, and this? >> right. so i think part of it is the more engagement you have of people, the more they're going to want to watch and be a part of it. it's not are we taking people away from the nba or the nfl. really what you're doing is, are you going to be able to get more people to watch these sports? what i always say is one simple thing, we've never talked about this, so ever watch the olympics? >> of course. >> do you ever watch -- >> on nbc by the way. >> watch curling. >> yeah. >> why? the reason you're watching curling, there's 250 other

channels, so the reason you're watching curling is because you're watching the best in the world compete. that's why you're watching it. it's different. you find it interesting. people will watch whether it's pa pidel, pickleball, tgl, getting more involved because the one thing people love is sports and they want to be part of it and our job is to get them more engaged. if we do that, then they're going to watch it. >> you said at the outset when i asked you about pulling a lasry, the incredible trade that you made if you want to call it a trade incredible investment in the box, are -- is this all a sign that we won't see you be a part of the big four leagues anymore? would you be an investor n a group, in one of the four major sports again? did you scratch that itch and now it's time for this? how are you assessing that? >> i think a lot is going to be a question of price. there's always going to be

opportunities. i love the nba. i think adam silver has done a phenomenal job and i think there are great partners. would i like get back involved? yes. it will depend on a team, on price. all right. so i think there's huge opportunities in sports. i'm not worried i'll be able to find them and we'll do it through fund. >> if you did it would be nba. >> nba, nhl, baseball, football. michael strahan is helping us with that. i think we will have the ability to do any of these and it's really going to end up being a question of price. >> can you get into the nba celeb basketball game at the all-star weekend? >> that's up to adam. i can go to the game. whether i will be able to play. >> you have a decent jump shot. >> thanks for being back. >> always a pleasure. >> that's marc lasry joining us. up next tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos standing

by with that. >> we have lower food away from home volume driving one stock down and an analyst says paramount is losing out not putting up its business for sale. i'll explain all that next.

bell. to kristina partsinevelos once again for a look at the stocks she's watching. >> shares of tree house food downs 10% off weak q3 results and lower sales guidance driven by slowing consumer spending an the sale of the snack bar business. the food giant reported declines in manufacturing and food away from home volumes. paramount getting a double downgrade from bank of america to under perform from buy with a price target of $9. shares trading down about 8%. they originally were bullish on paramount on the idea it was up for sale or meaningful parts up for sale. the analyst says that they no longer believe that paramount is serious about selling assets. scott? >> thank you. last chance now to weigh in on our question of the day. following the best week of the year for stocks are you more optimistic about the chances for a year-end rally? head to x for results just after this break.

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question of the day results. we asked following the best week of the year are you more optimistic about the chances for a year-end rally. two-thirds say yes. up next, nxp reporting results in "overtime" tonight, a rundown what to watch for. that much more when we take you inside the market zone.

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e*trade from morgan stanley. . we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. markets commentator mike santoli to break down the crucial moments of the trading day plus kristina partsinevelos on what to watch out for when nxp reports its earnings in "overtime" coming off the best week of the year as we said, only give back is the russell but that's been up so strong you're due for something there. >> mild cooling off, profit taking, russell we mentioned up 7.5%, down today. two stocks are down for every one up today. you are still seeing that typical uneven type performance. nothing really to be concerned about in the moment.

do say that it didn't take much for the 10-year yield from 4.50 to 4.65 today. no real news. there has been a lot of corporate bond issuance today. monday after a fed meeting off the case. so $20 billion or so hitting the market absorbed nicely by the corporate market. on the other hand sometimes it's treasuries. if that's reason we can deal with that. have stocks get their feet back under them. you're in the zone of saying even if you expect a fourth quarter rally how fruitful is it going to be? the average fourth quarter return on the sundar p&p is 4% >> who has more to prove the bulls or bears? two stocks down for every stock up today. bears still out in force. how would you answer that? >> i still say that the bulls have a little more to prove only because we've been stuck for several months now. that said no minds were changed

by what happened last week and i don't know if that's good or bad, but it's clear if you were bearish going into november, nothing that happened last week changed your mind. >> i was going to say, did you see the results of our poll? two-thirds. >> exactly. >> if you're surfing the tape every day, maybe you feel a little bit better right now. and the first cat list, people say what's the dat list going to be? stocks stop going down every day, and it stops seeming like we're precarious and something in the financials is going to break. nothing broke. we went up to 5% 10-year yields and didn't get anything that made us think there was a deeper stress fracture. >> kristina, nxp, interesting because of the exposure the company has to auto. >> yeah. which is why so many investors are cautious heading into earnings given you have texas instruments on semi, microchip have guided down post their

earnings driven by weakness in ev sales. semi dropped 22% after its earnings came out. i'm going to take an optimistic tone. there are several reasons to be more optimistic on the name. first although like you mentioned 50% of nxp revenue is exposed to the auto sector, it lacks the ev exposure which brought down silicon carbine producer. nxp has been under shipping demand to limit and control its investors and then you've got gross margins that have been at or above the high-end target over the last few quarters in autonomous driving, power and battery management. lastly the sbr internet of things is a segment which should hit about $594 million in sales for this quarter. that's expected to recover. but i just laid out the good. nxp shares on a five-week streak. it's down, it's at 15% carried

to the 47% jump in smh and it's still about 20% off from its most recent 52-week high. >> we shall see. and we will see you in o.t. thank you very much. >> thanks. >> mike about a minute left trying to think of like what is out there that will influence people, now that fed meeting is over. cpi, checking the date is not until november 14th. >> no. >> then after that nvidia earnings, so you got a pocket. >> a week from tomorrow cpi. gasoline prices down big in the month. people talk about a negative print for cpi. weekly claims matter because you're on the labor market coming back into balance. all of those things. quiet markets, if stocks take the opportunity to try to make incremental headway, people try to get reinvested because they dumped into cash over the course of the last three months, that

can be enough for a little while, i would say. >> so quiet today. see if it's a pause that refreshes, though, as we said after the best week of the year for stocks last week. there's the bell. we'll be green today. bulls will take that. overtime with morgan and jon. >> stocks continuing the recent winning streak finishing the day higher after tancing between gains and losses between the session. that's the scorecard on wall street. the action just getting started. i'm morgan brennan at cnbc headquarters. >> i'm jon fortt in washington, d.c., today, coming up this hour, chips and trips. we will get quarterly results from nxp semi and trip adviser as we kick off another big week of earnings. >> plus, new burger berman president and chief investment officer jo amato joins us with one surprising area that could