thank you. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it's tuesday morning. we have had a long streak of green arrows for the major averages. you see a slight pull back with the dow off 66 points. s&p futures down 8.5. nasdaq off 24. the nasdaq, as of yesterday, had a seven-session winning streak on the line. that is the last time it happened is january of this year. for the dow and s&p, it is back to the summer in june and july, for those averages.

looking at treasury yields, the ten-year yield is back below 4.6%. you are continuing to see pressure on yields this morning. the two-year yield is 4.9%. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari would err on the overtightening. in the interview with "the wall street journal" he said the economy is proving resilient. he said he is looking for the next interest rate steps ahead of the december meeting. he is a voting member of the fed policy committee. it is an interesting move to come out and say that. >> rates are not listening to him. >> flip-flopper. passive aggressive. i don't know what he is thinking on any given day. >> we will speak to austan goolsbee. he is the chicago fed president. we will see what he has to say.

he is a voting member. maybe we see a hike in december. when you have a voting member not taking it off the table and talking about it out loud, maybe you need to think about that. >> kashkari, i wonder if it is a reaction -- it has been a long time since he has flipped on that. >> it reminds me of people that got long at the top. you can get pummeled for long enough and throw in the towel. we will have greg branch on. greg, you were steadfast and the market came to you starting in early august. >> caplan said the former dallas fed president thinks jay powell will be worried about volcker with the return of inflation we they took their foot off the brakes.

>> i don't know. the ten-year yield has thrown further rate hikes into the mix over what the market has done for the fed and it is not doing it. it is pushing a different way. >> this is the dual mandate. if you have hirising inflation d unemployment. do you care about unemployment or the higher inflation? >> on november 7th. less than a year to go for the election. the other mandate may be more important. >> i think jay powell worries about inflation. gr gr greenspan said it would take care of itself. it is not supposed to be political. apolitical? >> they talk. they talk and they don't share. house republicans preparing a temporary spending bill to avert a government shutdown on

november 17th. they could vote on it as soon as this week. one option would create two new funding cliff dates. one of december 7th, date that still is living in infamy, and january 19th. keeping parts of the government open while the house and senate work on a full-year funding agreement. another option would include extending funding for all agencies until january 19th or negotiating a compromise. senate democrats want to attach assistance for ukraine. house speaker mike johnson is discussing this at a closed-door meeting this morning. looking forward to president goolsbee. i think the markets or environment has come around to his take. i think he was a reluctant hiker. that's what we were hearing when it was happening.

we'll see about what he thinks about kashkari. >> that is coming up later this morning. >> i think they all sense this. they put on a good show. i think behind-the-scenes, they talk about it. >> they disagree. it doesn't mean they are at each other's throats. >> there are people pushing both sides when they are in there. i think he is still more dovish. >> yeah. intel is the leading candidate for a contract for secure facilities to produce micro chips for u.s. military and intelligence applications. the facilities which have not been disclosed would be designated as a secure enclave and reduce the military de dependence on chips imported from taiwan. this is under the chips act which passed last year. the size of the contract has not been determined, but in the

range of $3 billion to $4 billion. that stock up 53 cents. these foundryfoundries are expe. >> can we get some of that? let talk about wework. it is official. we have been speculating about it for some time. wework filing for bankruptcy as it seeks a reorganization of the business which will include cutting leases. the shared work space business is seeking to reject non-operational locations. they agreed on the restructuring plan with a majority of creditors. despite an agreement earlier that year with the major investor which was softbank. sor here we are. how many years later? the model is broken.

>> the model was about being able to have flexibility and not get stuck in a lease and share it. >> for you. for the customer. it is still one of the great customer focused ideas. the question is whether there is an economic model behind doing that. >> that was the idea. >> yes. the conception, it was great. movie pass was great for the consumer. >> in a period where it is hard to lease office space, it is a difficult time for everybody. >> it is not that hard to -- >> a lot of places are locked in longer leases. >> they are locked into longer leases at the prices they are locked into and they can only charge the customer so much on these short-term leases.

too good for the customer. >> it could not stay in business. >> the truth is it will stay in business. the big question is what does this business look like in five or ten years from now and say this was an interesting idea. a lot of people thought it could never work. we'll see. we'll see. update now on sag-aftra. the screen actors guild said it could not accept the latest offer from the studios citing issues which include artificial intelligence. on saturday, the negotiating committee received a new offer from the studios that was framed as the last, best and final offer. we should note that our parent company comcast is among the studios negotiating with the striking actors.

comcast universal. never the last best? that means if it is not accepted, it would never been? >> it means that we're not going to continue to raise the stakes is what the studios are saying. raise the offer. they will have to find some way to sit down at the table and work it out. >> still fran has to get on board. >> fran drescher. >> she's dealing with those bratty kids. >> as "the nanny." >> yeah. >> parenting is a tough job. >> tell me about it. shares of international flavors of fragrance are higher after it will continue to invest in carl icahn's firm. that stock is up 8%. coming up on "squawk box,"

it is election day. not that election day. we will talk to pollster frank luntz after the break about the national mood of key races decided today. and we will bring you the numbers of uber which is set to report today. dara khosrowshahi will join us in the 7:00 a.m. hour. don't go anywhere. you are watching ""squawk" and this is cnbc.

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it's election day and despite it being an off year, there are several key races that analysts are watching closely. in mississippi and kentucky, voters will decide on governors. in ohio, voters will decide whether to add abortion protection to the state's constitution. this is the back drop to the third republican debate. five will face-off in miami. the frontrunner, donald trump, will skip the debate. and ahead of the presidential election with the state and local races on the ballots today, we bring in pollster frank luntz to see what they mean for next year. what is the top of the list for you? >> turnout. who is participating? republicans going to the polls

or are democrats active? i'm watching virginia. are republicans able to capture the legislature? virginia used to be a red state and it turned peurple. under governor youngkin, it may be back with the gop. >> are you a believer if it is a big republican sweep in that state, that youngk could turn around and try to run for president? >> i think he is looking at it and making phone calls. i know people in this town are talking about it. >> is it just people in this town talking about it or all over the country? >> not many people know him. we know him. we have come to understand what he has done in virginia. it is not a nationwide phen phenomenon. i wonder if it wouldn't be similar to rick perry as governor of texas.

he went to the top of the polls and within two weeks and petered out. >> can i ask about kentucky? >> sure. >> conservative place. andy beshear is popular. he has a republican legislature. he hasn't been able to do democratic things. i hear this is too close to call. the other guy is attractive for republican. >> it reminds me of massachusetts where democrats always control the legislature, but the republicans kept the governorship. the public seems to like republicans to lead and democrats closer to the people. kentucky is an example of a state that should be in the republican camp, but isn't in the statewide races. >> he iss too close to call. >> i believe beshear gets reelected. >> you do? >> what do you make of the "new york times" poll over the weekend? >> it started a food fight

internally. it is not just biden is losing in five of the six key states, but those are all states biden won in 2020 and now trump is competitive and he's winning. two things to point out. number one, young voters who should back biden by 60/40 aren't and then the second issue is if you put nikki haley in there or some other republican, they do better than donald trump. it is not the republican strength. it is democratic weakness. i don't understand for the life of me why chuck schumer and why hakeem jeffries do not go to the white house and say, sir, you have been a great president and have done a good job for us, but it is time to move on. >> axelrod did say that. >> he's from the obama administration. >> which is a different party. >> he won't be heard. >> no love lost. >> none of the influential power

brokers have the guts. >> who is the candidate on the democratic side that would be competitive with trump? your argument is any of them would do as well or better? >> mitch landeau. one of the best retail and politicians ever. the former may or of new orlean. cory booker. he has an amazing rap. >> i'll not disagree with those. you are in the polling business. do you think those people win against president trump if they were in that role? >> yes, i do. >> how. does that work in how yu effectuate with biden saying i'm not doing this and step down. then tell me how you work or deal with the vice president? this is a very complicated

issue. >> exactly. it has to happen right now. states are closing up the ability to get on the ballots. biden would have to leave in the next three or four weeks. we an agree on this. >> we angree this is happening? >> i think it could happen. if i was a democratic strategist like axelrod, i would insist on it. joe biden is not the same guy a year from now that he is today. the reason why people are turning against him is because of age and not because of next year, but four years down the road. joe biden would be 86 as president. >> what about andrew's question? kamala harris? somebody else? how do you convince him to step down? >> she is polling higher than he is. >> for the first time ever. >> explain that.pletely narrati

to the issue. >> it's age. it is not her strengths. it is his weakness. it is weaker and weaker. he has one economic issue which is inflation. it is still an annoyance because it affects every individual. biden can't get around that. he might be able to fix, but you can't fix age. >> frank, you are on college campus all the time. do you people the silent majority are not seen right now? the loudest out there is a minority? talking about the demonstrations and proptests that we're seeing. is that a majority of college students are on the side of the protesters? >> majority of college students do not share the same values of the people at this table. young people were raised differently and saw things differently. >> where did they get the idea? >> from tiktok. tiktok is dominated by people

who don't share a commitment to economic freedom or commitment to the democracy that we know and they have been raised to believe this stuff. >> is that because it is run by china or the nature of the social media? >> nature of social media. we don't know the truth a any more. i would love to bring that to you. we asked the question what is the value that is missing in america more than any other and 15 points is the truth. do we get the truth on social media? no way. that's the issue. for conservatives, they won't regulate it because that is government involvement. for progressives, they want the truth and they are afraid of having -- >> they want their truth. >> they want their truth. we have a problem that young people are not learning critical thinking. they are not learning problem solving. they are not learning team building. it is not just reading, writing and arithmetic. i teach at west point.

it is the only exception to the rule. at west point, you learn how to lead and work together. you solve problems. at the other universities, you th think, unfortunately, joe -- >> it is not like previous generations. i made the point where i watched this movie from the '60s "easy rider" where they were talking to guys from the commune. they remind me of the same idealism. >> this is a tiny slice of it in the 1960s. in 2023, that is the majority. >> they will stay that way forever? >> unless people change them or challenged. that is why the university presidents are under the gun. they are not saying no to anti-semitic speak. they get wrapped up in the woke stuff, but not wrapped up in the other tragedies. the fact is and i did the not think i would talk about this on

the show. to be a jewish student on a college campus right now is frightening. something needs to be done. >> imagine if there were demonstrations against black people or demonstrations against asian people. it is unheard of. why can't we connect the dots to see how crazy this is? >> i want to give bill rowan credit and steve schwartzman credit. people in the business community. gibson dunn saying never again. we are not going to allow the students to be victimized. we are not going to hire students who are so anti- the mainstream. rowan is changing pen single handedly. i think it is changing college cam cam campuses. it is impossible now to make students victims if you are jewish. it is one of the great changes

on college cam ppcampuses. it is a good thing. the business community is leading it. good for them. >> frank, thank you. i appreciate it. >> wide ranging. you got to be prepared for that. >> on this show, i'm prepared for everything. >> before you go, trump, same story if youngkin or somebody else doesn't change, is it too late for them? >> can nikki haley beat biden? s >> she crushes him. chris christi crushes him. donald trump trumpets his numbers. he is the weakest republican against the democrats. >> all right. thanks, frank. coming up, it's the season for art. major auction houses have billions of art going up this week. maybe not that piece that was ruined yesterday by climate

change freaks. are the wealthy buyers coming out to play? that story is next. hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts,

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t. rowe price, invest with confidence. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading.

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tomorrow which is well below the total of $2.7 billion from last year. sales of post-war and contemporary art is down 24% in the first half. the biggest sign of weakness is guarantees. when sellers are worried about price, the auction houses have to guarantee them a minimum sales price. if not one bids at that guarantee, the auction house has to buy the works. sotheby's buys one for $400 million and includes the 1932 p, picasso portrait expected to sell for $120 million. and the portrait at $40 million to $60 million estimate. and a water lilly from monet estimated at $45 million. and the most expensive ferrari

is auctioned with the ex-estimated value of over $60 million. >> wow. given inflation, what is going on in the market? are all of these numbers going to get hit? what is your take? >> the three masterpieces will be fine. it is everything else that is in the middle and bottom. i did bring, becky and joe, you love rothgo. he painted a series for the client to ruin the oappetite of every son of a blank that goes into the restaurant. he gave back to commission. >> he went and said i hate these people so much. >> why does it ruin your meal? >> they were all dark.

>> it doesn't ruin my appetite. >> bright red and orange. these were the darkest painting he ever made. >> he is an abstract. >> i thought one of the dead chickens. >> i was thinking it was raw meat. >> rotting meat. >> he did not paint anything realistic. through color, he hoped to basically give the wealthy a message. >> that is in his mind that people are going to look at that and lose their appetite. >> i'm not losing my appetite. i would tut it on the shelf or wall and be happy about it. >> it was the color. >> $30 million to $40 million is the estimate on that painting. few are in private collections. he had issues. >> robert, thank you. when we come back, the

social media transformation we watched unfold the last year with ben mesrick is out with "breaking twitter." he will join us in the next hour. and we have the interview with austan goolsbee, the chicago fed president. we will see if he is in the same camp as neel kashkari with keeping inflation at bay. as we head to break, we are looking at the s&p 500 winners and losers from yesterday. >> announcer: winners and losers is sponsored by state street global advisors. the biggest ideas inspire new ones.

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welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. things have worsened 100 points on the dow. it has been a good seven-day winning streak we have seen. a bit of a bounce. let's look at what is moving the markets this morning with greg branch of veritas financial

group. managing partner and cnbc contributor. you know, i hope you had -- i'm not going to put you on the spot or ask you whether anyone called you. i have been talking about you today. you're welcome. >> thank you, joe. i appreciate it. >> you know why? can you figure out why? i'll tell you why. >> any talk is good talk. >> just spell the name right. we were talking about some of the fed people that flip flopped. of doves and hawks. greg hasn't been that friendly toward equities. we had that nice move that sort of ended in early august, you were still not feeling great about it. now it has come back into your domain where you are looking right again that things aren't that great for the equity markets. are you changing now?

do you feel better about them or do you feel there is flat or down in the future? >> had you asked me that question last week, i probably would have changed my posture to some degree or before last week, i should say. really what it boils down to me for, joe, i have three tentpoles i measure my posture about. we have done really little against any of the three. the first is i have been higher and longer as you well know this year. it was to great shock and awe 14 months ago when i said the terminal rate or predicted the terminal rate would be 6%. we're here. there is progress there. i have been reading a copious amount of notes saying we'll have rate cuts next year. i don't see how we get to rate cuts next year. i'm still longer. on the estimate front, i have a

view with the fourth quarter and 2024 estimates were way too high. over the last five weeks, consensus chopped the fourth quarter estimates in half. we have done precious little in 2024. those estimates need to come down 15% to 20%. that keeps me bearish as well. lastly is valuation. we had come in from beginning of the year at 18 times multiple on consensus numbers to 17 times. that is reinflated with last week's gains. that will naturally come down. there is still, in my mind, work to do in terms of consensus catching up with the macro. it is hard to change my posture with the work left to do. >> you figure earnings estimates are still too high for next year. that's one thing. multiples are high. that's not a great combination. what did you mean if i spoke to you a week ago you might have changed your tune?

what would your tune be a week ago? >> before the run-up, we were 17 times and consensus was coming down fairly aggraggressively. i thought everything was headed in the direction where consensus and my view on match. andsegment, i think there is a downside surprise from the fed. i saw copious notes that the fed is done and we will have rate cuts. i don't see how they are done here. neel is giving guidance. i think jay powell was giving guidance when he said we need further, key word is further softening of the labor market and below trend growth. we have seen neither of those things. when we thought the bond market was going to do the work for them, yields have come in across the curve. yields have come in, the market rebounded, the dollar is

softening. now the fed has work left to do. >> you still think there is a 6% terminal rate and does that -- are we still able to avoid a hard landing if we get to 6? >> i'm not certain about the latter. i am certain about the former. i think we need to get there first. that is not what the market is expecting right now, joe. you know, the probability is for another single hike with zero percent two weeks ago. part of consensus is coming around in the low teens that there's a probability of a hike in the december meeting. slightly higher or mid teens for january. this was zero a couple of weeks ago. this is going to be a downside surprise. i'm not certain that a 50-basis points more puts us into arm g arma armageddon. it puts us in the slowing on the

manufacturing side which has contracted for 12 straight months now. services side is where we need to rein it in a bit. >> when do you think you will go bullish? just in terms of time. think it will be six months or a year or never? when do you think, greg? >> pure speculation on my part. i actually thought it would be this year, joe. at the beginning of the year, we had unforeseen stimulus and relief rallies and extrapolating numbers with the straight line delineations with the jobs or disinflation which is just not the case. if i had to -- i am on tape. if i had to put this on tape, i think it will take six-to-eight months. it will take that amount of time for my views to align. i don't think we will get past the rate cut. >> if the sun is still coming up, which i don't used to doubt

that, but if it is coming up in six-to-eight months, i'll check back with you. >> i'll be here. >> hopefully we'll all be here. who knows? thanks. >> downer. downer. >> the world is spinning out of control and crazy things are happening. i guess i've lived too long. >> happy tuesday. when we come back, mohamed el-erian will join us on the time out of the key central bank policies. and in florida, senator rick scott wants chair powell to take accountability for reducing the balance sheet. that senator will join news the next hour. you can get the best of "squawk box" in "squawk pod" and listen any time on your favorite podcast apps. we'll be right back. enjoy richer, bolder flavors

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coming up, what a difference a year makes in the life of the social media giant. author ben mesrick is out with "breaking twitter." he will join us on set with his take on the transformation. "squawk box" will be right back.

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new this morning, it's wall street journal reports that linda yaccarino, the ceo of x is pushing to a deal for the nfl which is set to expire in april. the report says yaccarino met with executives in the summer to renew the contract. the new deal is discussed with major league soccer and including messi. this is part of the push to give advertisers a path back to the platform after they halted ads at the beginning of the israel-hamas war. and elon musk is the owner of x. since the takeover, there have been significant changes of the app with the 16% decline in

daily active users and work force reduction. joining us right now to breakdown how we got there is ben mezrich. his book is "breaking twitter." ben, let's break this down. >> sure. >> what happened phez rick. >> elon came in for mobile reasons, some would say. he believes we are in the window of time and we can get to space and mars, and twitter had been taken over by what he called the woke mind virus, and he came in and trashed the place, and there has been a downward spiral, and the elon before twitter and after twitter elon musk. the elon today is not considered the edison of our times. half of the country is his fan and the other half of the country hates him. not only did he destroy this

global town hall but destroyed himself in the process. >> do you think he cares? >> i think he cares a lot. he got to a point that he locked himself in his office and the employees were considering calling the police because they thought he was going to self-harm himself. he went on to chapelle and he got booed. this never happened to elon before. his kid's car got attacked and he started to throw twitter off in the middle of the night. this is not the elon of calculated and building ro rocketships. >> elon wrote --

>> well, he's coming on later this morning. >> it's a prison the way you view the world. we spoke before the cameras came on. i think elon, to bring twitter back to what it was designed to be at the beginning, and that's a place where everybody could express their views, and he took a bullet for that in a manner of speaking, and he saved it, exactly what you said, from the woke orthodoxy, and all the people that left twitter, good riddance, the one that was moderating what i was allowed to see, whether it had to do with covid or climate change, and he took -- he spent his money to make sure that we could see that. that's how i -- also, he will never go on colbert now and not

get booed. i don't want to go on colbert and not get booed. >> dave chapelle is not colbert. >> twitter itself -- he said it would be the most true place on the internet. it's conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory, anti-semitism and hate. he hates journalists and major media. it's not a place -- >> well, twitter used to be the first thing i opened every morning because it was so good at getting me up-to-date, because i could trust the information, a lot of it. i have no problem with bringing on lots more voices or the moves that he -- >> it's not the same for you in the morning. >> the problem is when everybody got a blue checkmark, and now i don't know who is a conspiracy

theorist -- >> it's always been a cesspool. >> i don't want to hear what elitists and el-- >> i would like you to verify, and that's it. >> but you get rid of all the voices vetted and you throw up anybody that wants to pay eight bucks -- >> yeah, you get boosted by paying $8. >> i don't pay -- >> i don't pay either. >> it might not be me, the stuff i say. i want plausible deniability. it might be me. i might have been hacked. >> what is more, sort of important, is it's gone from

being a place to find the truth, and now it's entertainment. he has turned it into a circus. >> it will become a dating website or banking website, because he lost all the advertisers. no way advertisers will -- >> you want more control and censorship or do you want to decide for yourself -- i am still fine with it. >> i looked at it this morning. >> yeah, but it's the people that i don't follow that get put into my feed all the time. >> go to the follow feed. >> but it's people you don't follow get put into it anyway because of the algorithm. >> and everybody to the left you used to follow, he scared them off. >> i love you and i think -- you know, you think we have to ban -- >> i don't think our politics

are all that different. i am somewhere in the center. >> that's what people like you always say, and i am like a reactionary -- >> well -- >> you don't know if you are moving or the object is moving past you. so i am right in the center. you are out here. you want to ban all short selling. >> yeah -- >> we will never ban short selling. >> we will see. >> now you are going to tell me about guardrails for capitalism. >> i think elon has had a miss adventure here, and it's a spiral of craziness. if you read the story, there's crazy stuff that went on.

>> he definitely, as walter has pointed out again, he's a loose cannon, and sometimes his humor is ill conceived, as is mine, but to me he will always be a hero for saving twitter. >> i think he's a hero for what he does in space -- >> andrew the flamethrower. >> you don't think he would do this again? >> i don't think walter -- >> do you think elon would have bought twitter? >> i think elon would never have bought twitter. i think it's a disaster. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network.

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good morning. futures pointing to a lower open putting the s&p six-day winning streak in skwrejeopardy. and uber reports results and an interview with its ceo is coming up. plus, elon musk's ambitions.

the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i am joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew, there he is, he's not with us but he's with us in spirit. >> he's on the screen. >> yeah, but he's not there. he's right there. u.s. equity futures at this hour down about 100 points. and the ten-year was back above 4.6 -- well, it is again. 2-year still below.

>> we are going to be talking to the ceo in just a little bit, but earnings coming in at 10 cents per share, and revenue also falling short of thee estimates. this is the important part, the gross bookings did beat the company's prior guidance and uber giving a upbeat current quarter forecast for bookings and profits. right now the stock is down a little over 1%, and as i mentioned, dara will be joining us at the bottom of the hour, so we will have lots of questions for him about all this in just a little bit. >> andrew, thank you. we will be back with you very shortly and get more on the great interview we are awaiting. in the meantime, our next

guest says the banks should use their strategy wisely. i want to bring in alliaz's chief economic adviser. >> there's a time-out that is forced on you, and there's a time-out that you simply take to decide the next play, and then there's a time-out that is more strategic. i think the bank of england and the fed should take a longer view, and recognize they have done enough and sit back and worry about other strategic issues than simply react to the latest set of data. we saw it again yesterday,

becky. the result of which we saw yields go up eight basis points and then come down eight basis point. they should, to quote hamilton, talk less and smile more. >> you are talking about kashkari who said they may have to act more quickly now to make sure they can get inflation back to the 2% desired level? >> yeah, and what most people think he was reacting to was the fallen yields and concern that financial conditions have loosened too much. we cannot have a fed that is reacting to yesterday's data all the time, that tools operate with a lag. they need to take a more strae taep tae -- strategic view. this volatility in the bond market could break something and

undermines the standing of the u.s. in global financial markets. >> isn't flexibility a good thing? the idea of saying we are going to wait and see -- i think everybody took the message that they probably will not act again anytime soon but want to reserve the right to say if inflation pops up they will react again rather than letting the markets take off to the races even more than they have on the idea that they are paused for the moment? >> i think they did the right thing. you have heard me say for a while now that they should stop. the problem is they seem unable not to respond to the latest market data point in a world that is inherently fluid. they should sit back and take the strategic view you talked about, and not react to every single data point or move in bond yields. >> but jay powell is not -- you are basically saying you don't

think any of the other fed presidents should be allowed to speak? >> no, i am saying speak but give us a strategic view of what the banks are going, and simply do not overreact. becky, think about it. you have a tool that acts with a lag. if you over steer to every day tau -- data point, you cannot over steer. there are studies now that the fed contributed to more market volatility than we have seen before. >> you know, it's even better, and it's not a car. do you ever try to see the boat when you over correct -- it's like, oh, you are going that way and then, oh -- it's like that. a car you can sort of get back, but the boat is already headed

that way because of the water, but that's exactly what you are saying. there's a lag. they got to understand that there's a lag, but they don't seem to. that would cause them to have to look into the future which they never try to do. >> well, former fed officials and fed chairs have, and that's been really important. i mean, that's the whole point of forward policy guidance, forward is the key word there. it's not reacting to the key data points. this is important because we know fiscal policy is not going to offer stability. we know the global economy is not going to offer stability, so you need an anchor, and it's particularly important at a time when growth is slowing, so policy should be volatility reducer, and not volatility -- >> we are going to have senator rick scott on. he wants to hold jay powell accountable for not reducing the

balance sheet of the fed. i immediately thought if you had to name defendants in a lawsuit against people on the fed for doing that, how far back would you have to go? it's not just jay powell, is it? who do we have to go back to, ben bernanke? >> you go back a while, because unfortunately, the fed turned what was supposed to be a bridge in operation into something much more long-term. every time they tried to exit -- do you remember 2013, they didn't have the courage to absorb the immediate market reaction. i said it at the time, it's like taking candy away from the kid. the kid will yell but the answer is not to give them more candy. and we became over reliant on central bank balance sheets. they did a lot of damage. they allowed excessive risk

taking. look at what has been happening in terms of excessive risk taking all around the financial markets, and that was the combination of reliable liquidity from a noncommercial buyer, and that's a really important characteristic, and secondly, an interest rate that remained too low for too long. >> you think the fed won't have to do anything that rates will come down from where they are right now, or they have to be brought down because you think the economy is headed into a recession and the fed will have to react? >> becky, i think the fed's influence on rates now is mostly over. in 2022 it was all about them playing catchup to them being behind in inflation, and in 2023 it was all about them communicating that rates will be higher for longer. 2024 will be a tug-of-war between lower growth pushing

yields down and the fact that you will see an enormous increase in bond auctions, and an enormous increase in the financing needs of the government, and i hope that tug-of-war stays balanced. all of those wishing for lower rates quickly, i tell them be careful what they are wishing for, and if we get them it's because the economy has gone down too quickly. if that happens interest rate risk turns into credit risk, and let's hope that tug-of-war with the fed out of the story now, that tug-of-war between somewhat lower growth and higher bond issuance is an equal one. >> thank you. coming up, senator rick scott, talking about holding the fed accountable in their goals of reducing the balance sheet.

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florida senator, rick scott, once again calling on fed chair powell taking accountability to failing to reduce the balance sheet. he said it's clear your current plan to reduce the balance sheet is insufficient and would never solve the problem of your massive balance sheet. senator scott joins us this morning. we were talking about it in a previous segment, senator, and plenty of blame to go around. is your point that's all in the past, the balance sheet is what it is and we now need to reduce it, but the players that got us to where they are, they not fed -- ben bernanke, janet yellen, and how far back do we need to go? >> not that far back. when obama got elected, it was $8 trillion, and under powell he

doubled it, it was 4.5 trillion he doubled to 9. he promised to bring it down and has not. why could it go up so fast, and then coming down not hit the target. nobody has been held accountable for the financial crisis of 2008, or nobody has been held accountable for silicon valley bank. this is a problem. no accountability. the balance sheet. we have to have change there. >> senator, i guess it doubled in large part because of covid and then trying to bring it down when the fiscal -- there were absolutely no governors on fiscal spending during that period, so if you were to pull the rug out too quickly, there

would be more silicon valley bank shares than necessary, and you are kind of living in the environment you created because of covid. >> well, building the balance sheet kept long-term interest rates down when we should have let them go with the market. think about what powell did. he raised interest rates so quickly -- the balance of the federal reserve has gone down $1.2 trillion, and powell decided to buy those and then raise interest rates the way he did. i think for the first time since the federal reserve has been created they are losing money on an annual basis. just go back and put all this together. it doesn't look good. if you are going to judge jay powell, you would say -- it

doesn't bode -- i would not want to have a report card if i was powell right now. >> this means conditions would be much tighter than they are right now, and it's an election year and that's not going to happen, or next year is. you would be okay with the financial conditions being tighter than what they are that could push us into a hard landing. if there's no intervention and you don't walk softly, and you let the chips fall where they may, there could be a much harder outcome to the u.s. economy. >> simply we have to live in reality and within our means. congress has not done its part and the biden administration has not done its part. since 2019 the population has gone up 1.8% and the budget is

up 5%, and so there's a lot of blame. let's start living in reality. the earlier you live in reality, the better chance you will fix the problems. this idea that we have made all these mistakes and not fixing them makes no sense to me. i hope interest rates will come down, and we can't have the federal reserve continue to buy up treasuries. doesn't make sense what powell is doing right now. losing money, $1.2 trillion of losses, and can't take the balance sheet down the way he took it up. that doesn't make sense to me. >> senator, shifting gears, you spend a lot of time in florida, and obviously now you are in d.c., but after october 7th and the atrocities in israel and the terrorist attack by hamas, did

we miscalculate something, what kids are being taught and kids around the universities, and -- i knew it was bad, and to me it's mind-boggling. i am surprised and never thought i would see that in this country. >> it's disappointing, the anti-semitism. i got elected in 2008 and we saw it and changed the university president and tried to do a lot of it to get it under control. we have a lot of anti-semitism in the country, and we all have to call it out. this is everybody's responsibility. i am glad we got donors and universities pulling back on their donations, and i am glad companies are saying i don't want to hire anybody that

supports hamas. >> i applaud the president for some of the things that he's done. i don't know who he has working for him sometimes, when a question is posed about anti-semitism and he comes back and says we're creating an islamophobia commission, that's the answer you get for an anti-semitism question. who is calling the shots there? do you know who it is in the administration? is it that simple, about winning michigan in 2024 that has a large muslim population? >> it could be. since biden got elected, we have allowed iran to have unbelievable amounts of oil profits, and we keep giving money -- right now, they are holding american hostages right now in gaza and this president has given basically hamas and the plo $100 million and wants to give them more. this makes no sense to me. anybody that goes to gaza first

goes through hamas. the plo pays terrorists to take hostages and pays families of the terrorists that lose their life, pays them money after their dead. what are we thinking? >> do we need to be so -- i don't know, bellicose, that we get something started with iran, senator? we tried getting involved over there and it doesn't work very well. what is the answer? >> i don't think anybody wants to go to war. let's live in reality for a second. iran, russia, china, north korea, they don't like our way of life, and iran as a proxy is attacking our soldiers. if we don't call out what hezbollah and hamas is doing, it won't get better but get worse.

the director of the fbi couldn't talk about it, and he had to learn about how to say it in a safe way when i asked him about the open border. we have to wake up whether we like it or not, and we have to vet people come into the country, and we can't bring 70,000 people in from afghanistan without doing a vetting of them, and we have all these people from iran, syria and lebanon without any vetting at all. 7.1 million people have come across our border that we have not even seen. this doesn't make any sense when talking about our family's safety. >> it's mind-boggling. >> it's crazy. >> a lot of it is, and where we are, i didn't think i would live to see some of this stuff. i guess if you live long

enough -- >> it's a scary time for this country. get back to work. >> thanks. on the other side of the break -- thanks, joe. we will talk about uber just out with its earnings a short time ago and we are getting ready for a first on cnbc interview with the ceo in a couple minutes. and walter isaacson will join us to talk about elon musk and cyber launches. let's look at the futures. the dow is down about eight points. we're coming back after this.

let's get to frank holland with the premarket movers. >> we are starting with dr horton. those shares reversing course. they were up higher and now moving lower. profit 13% above estimates. the nation's largest homebuilder with a somewhat mixed report.

closings and orders below estimates, and despite higher mortgage rates, orders increased 39% year over year, and that shows horton down half a percent. and then international flavors and fragrances, those shares 6% higher right now, and topping earnings and revenue ex expectations. the company also confirming it will continue to work with icon capital agreeing to renominate one icon director to the board. and rbc initiating home depot and lowe's sector performance. lowe's with a 194 price target, and you can see where the stock is trading currently. experts say there's a strong

long-term thesis for the stock. back over to you. >> thanks. still to come. we are at uber headquarters, and we will talk to the company's ceo who is walking in as we speak. dara khosrowshahi is here. and after this, elon musk announcing his artificial intelligence startup. (swords clashing)

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♪ welcome back to "squawk box." uber reporting its third quarter results at the top of this hour, and the top and bottom estimates, and they saw growth in rides and gave a fourth quarter forecast, and here to talk about this at uber's headquarters, dara khosrowshahi, ceo. >> good to see you as well. >> let's talk about the numbers that were lower on the revenue

side. when you start to look through the way the business model is shifting there's an accounting issue that is worth explaining to the public. >> definitely. the revenue on an as reported basis was up 10% year over year, and we classified certain incentive spends for uber eats. these are promotions and price cuts that used to be classified as marketing expenses and we reclassified those as contra revenue. >> that's subtracting from the total revenue? >> yes, and without that change revenue growth would be 8% higher, and that would have exceeded the market -- we did 2.4 billion trips, and that accelerated from the last quarter. same things on growth and

profitability. the business is in good shape. >> can we look at uber as a paw r barometer of the larger economy? >> i think uber at this point is going faster than the larger economy, and there's signals we get from the larger economy, and we are gaining position in our category because we have the platform of rides and eats. generally we are doing better than the rest of the competitors in this space, and it's a barometer of the economy plus. >> and you keep hearing about americans all over the country who effectively say that inflation is killing them, and things are too expensive -- by the way, the prices of the uber feel very high for those of us that use them a lot, and yet people are still using it, and

yet people are still using it. what is happening? >> people go shopping and if you get an uber and you go out to restaurants and et cetera, and as it relates to ubers and the rides business, bookingsare 30% up, and prices on uber on a global basis are almost flat to up slightly. >> why does it feel like -- for those of us in new york or l.a. or in san francisco, it's a higher number, and it's a regulated number, too, and some of the cars, just to get into, just by default, the taxi commission is charging you a flat fee just to get in the car. >> yeah, new york, for example, 20% of your fare is taxes and fees, which is probably the highest in the country, so all of these taxes and fees add up. insurance is another cost item as well. if you look at the cpi car

insurance, almost up 19% on the year on year basis. it's harder for businesses to do business profitably. >> is it changing the dynamic -- there was a period of time when people were using ubers to get to work every day. is that still happening? >> it's still happening. uber in general is growing much faster than alternatives, whether that's taxi or mass, et cetera -- >> all these fees are not slowing down congestion, and we were going to get people into subways and buses, and in a way -- they were trying to get people out of the vehicle, out of the car. >> i think that story is not over. i think the subway in new york is coming back, and you drive around in new york and it's

plenty congested at this point. >> can we talk about the 48 business. what is happening there? we also saw what happened to convoy, which is probably one of your biggest competitors. >> what is happening with the freight, during the pandemic you had record shipping volumes and freight rates up, and more truckers were come into the market post pandemic, whereas the uber and services business, uber eats mobility is growing quickly, and spend on goods as flattened out or come down. that has created a freight recession in terms of rates that we have not seen for a very, very long time. i think some of the smaller players, some of the weaker players or some of the players that over spent have gone out of business and will continue to go out of business. it hurt our uber freight

business. >> is that a business you want to stay in? >> not only are we in the digital worker space that convoy was, but we are actually managing the fulfillment systems of many, many players out there. it's a holistic approach to fulfillment. in tough times larger companies, smarter companies with the best technology could stand out. i do think it's a time when uber freight can stand out. >> you made acquisitions in one space. >> we don't do business in israel or gaza or the west bank, so it's zero direct affect to our business, and the middle east represents 2% of our overall bookings, rather small,

and we have a pretty broad interest in the middle east, and we don't see it bleeding into other parts of the business. for example, you might be worried is corporate travel taking a hit, and what we are see something corporate travel spend is increasing on uber for business as companies are going out there and hitting the road for sales. we are not seeing it bleed into other parts of the business. >> one of the fascinating things that happened in the last month and a half, has to do with robo taxis, and for so many years we would sit together and i would ask you about when there would be no driver in the car and what that future looked like, and everybody painted a relatively rosy picture, and now it has not happened in the most unique way.

>> i think these issues might be unique to cruz itself, and this problem of replacing human drivers with robot drivers has proven to be more challenging than anybody thought it would be, and that challenge continues and it underlines how important it is to be safe as you develop the technology, you develop it responsibly. we have a partnership with waymo, and that's a partnership working well with two companies totally dedicated to safety. >> why sit working there and not elsewhere? how closely do you think those vehicles will end up elsewhere? >> we are starting in phoenix. again, we want to build in a safe and responsible manner. our ambitions are to expand beyond phoenix.

we work with two autonomy providers, and we have sidewalk robots in los angeles as well, and we think we can be that marketplace and bring demand to all of the autonomous providers. >> now that you understand the technology, probably better than most, what do you think the real timelineis? >> i think that the real timeline in terms of significant commercialization is going to be between five and ten years from now. >> everything is always ten years away. >> well, five to ten. >> do you think it's still another ten? >> i think for it to be a big part of the business, yes. there's still -- you are dealing with human lives here and you can't take short cuts as it relates to safety. i do think that the regulatory framework, the safety framework still has yet to mature. i think it's something all of us should take our time on. >> do you think that people who

own teslas, for example, are going to turn around and rent them as taxis if they see all the folks in that -- you have heard elon talk about that. >> absolutely. >> and others imagine having that technology in their cars and everybody is owning a car and using it as a taxi, and is that a real thing to you? >> i think that is a ways off, and i can't say if it's tesla or some of the other players. in any circumstance, whether it's in institutions like waymo. if you want to put your tesla on the uber marketplace, that's a future that would be a great future for both of us. >> thank you. joe, back to you. >> thanks. biographer, isaac walterson joins us. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we are watching the futures this morning and we have taken a little step down. the futures down triple digits. this does come after seven days in a row of gains. the dow is at a seven-week high. the nasdaq now up seven days in a row and we have not seen that since the beginning of the year. if you are looking at treasuries, you will see the yields are lower, and it's back above 4.6%, and we were below that this morning. the 2-year pushing back up. oil prices, you will see wti below $80. so it's off 1.5%. crypto crisis this morning have been a little bit weaker.

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walter isaacson is the author of "elon musk," which is the book that everybody has read and is really a fantastic book and lays out so much about elon musk. what do you think about the ai and -- >> yeah, that was one of the unspoken things when he bought twitter, we are all going to run on data, and that's the billion or so tweets coming out each week. when he was a kid with no friends, growing up as a teenager, and he worried that ai, when the robots would turn on us. he starts open ai with sam, and then they have a feud because open ai becomes closed.

last march, when i was doing the book, he said you have to come by, and we sit down and he says i have to start an ai company. he said it was like the hitchhiker's guide to the g galaxy. you would be able to ask the computer everything. he is using that data feed and eventually he will correct the real world ai, meaning the self-driving cars and the billion frames of video per day from tesla cameras, and the robot, and it will be quite interesting. >> has he conquered the idea of keeping it safe and making sure robots don't turn on us, the original fear he has talked about for years and years? >> i don't think he has conquered it. i think ai can start spewing out any information you tell it to, but in terms of having a safety

button, i remember him, and it's in the book, and he's dealing with a robot, and this little 3-year-old is touching the robot's hand and they are tacking about making sure there's a kill switch for the robot, where if some day the robots turn againstoverride. and i'm going, wow, this is a weird worry to have, but it's always in his mind that humans have to be in charge. >> the other worry, though, is that ai is a way to send out misinformation all over the planet. and start controlling the population, because you're even more efficient and effective at it. >> absolutely. and, to me, is the biggest danger in the hospital that some robots are going to turn on us, but that it's possible that if you got people running an ai system, they could target everybody here. they could listen to every word y'all have said, and then know how to feed you with the right information and the wrong information, to sway your mind.

and that's, i think, the thing we have to guard against, is the spread of misinformation and targeted misinformation. >> do we have to worry about ai doing that, or are we already doing it ourselves? >> we're doing it, but like all technologies, i mean, i remember when i first covered people on the weird fringes, they would be at the fringe of rallies handing out mimograph sheets. david duke down if louisiana, i remember covering him. now they have the internet, now you have ai, now you have social media. it can just amplify by one or two orders of magnitude what people have done in the past, but it becomes more dangerous, especially when you can target it. >> we had a long discussion with ben nesric, who wrote a book, it's the -- >> called "breaking twitter." >> but the worst corporate merger in his -- aol. >> aol/time warner. >> but that merger in terms of

value destruction. >> yeah, yeah. let's not go there, okay. >> i'm sorry. >> i still have a bathroom -- >> that was a real bad deal. but he kind of, see, and i would admit that i was not always a fan boy of elon musk, but i am now. and i contend that he saved twitter from a platform that wouldn't talk about the wuhan lab, wouldn't talk about what closing down society could mean to our youth. wouldn't talk about any controversy, about anything that didn't fit with the woke liberal orthodoxy. ben's viewpoint is, you can't go -- elon now can't go on jimmy kimmel because he's going to get viewed by the young, intelligent -- the young -- he's lost a lot of former fan boys, because he has been -- he's come out as not necessarily marching in lockstep with the progressive

woke crowd. he said you've -- he's lessened in your eyes, and that you wouldn't right that biography at this point, if you knew what you knew then about -- >> what do you mean, "no"? you would still right it? >> of course. it's the most interesting book in the world, and what we have, working, and watching him work for that year leading up to and after the purchase of twitter, and the merger of ai into it, becomes this amazing story that we all wrestle with around this table sometimes, which is what you started with, which is, how do you open the -- more free speech. >> without the hate speech. >> and how do you make sure that the hate speech doesn't get amplified. >> has he lessened in your eyes because of what he did at twitter? >> no, i do feel that certain parts of twitter that has gotten more toxic. >> is it his reputation at this point? >> no, no, no. if you look at twitter for the two years before he got it, they

put no features in, and they were stopping people from saying things that turned out to be probably more useful in our dialogue, in our politics. >> it's a nice way of saying that we shouldn't have said to the jay -- you can't talk about lockdowns being bad, or -- >> talk about wuhan, protect anthony fauci. >> but the more interesting thing is the technological stuff that's happening. i remember, on christmas eve of this past year, he went to sacramento, turned his plane around, he was so angry that they had all of these excess serves, and he personally lifted up the tiles on the floor and cut them out. it's typical of elon. it degrades the service for a while, but then it proves, too, how much more nimble it can be. and he was able to put full-motion video on, able to put -- so that you can get monetized if you make videos and live streaming. twitter spaces is good. but also, everything about elon has rockets gone off and has

rubble in its wake, and the rubble in its wake is that if you put far too more people on twitter and you open the aperture of free speech, you're going to have some toxic stuff. >> do you think elon is disappointed that he's not the hero of -- >> no, no, no. musk loves controversy. he loves drama. it's one of the themes of the book. everything was going great for him a year and a half ago. he had been "time's" person of the year, richest person, 33 rockets had gone up and landed, a million tesla's sold. he's like, no, i'm like playing a video game, i need more drama, i need the next level. i said, what are you going? he says, i'm going to buy twitter. so i think he loves this controversy and drama. >> and nobody's perfect. >> well, we aren't. >> yeah, we are. no, but he's got some strange qualities. >> if you buy the book, i hope,

shows tlhat really rough qualit to him. because shake pspeare says, we' molded out of our faults. you cannot take a great person and ignore the fact that the faults that they have are also part of the fabric. >> how does he feel about the book, because you did lay out a lot of the faults. and the last time i had asked you this, i don't think you had gotten a lot of feedback yet. >> no, no, no, i lay out a lot of his faults, and he jokingly says when he's asked about it, i ran into him right before the book came out. my deal was, you don't get to read it advance, i ran into it somewhere and he said, should i read your book? and i said, of course not, you shouldn't read the book so now he tells people, walter told me not to read it, so i didn't. >> but you still have a relationship with him? >> i ran into him wiat a

conference with andrew ross sorkin, but i'm not his pal. >> it's just an interesting relationship, because you gave him total access. >> it was stunning -- >> for two years at every meeting -- >> you were basically embedded. >> embedded, including about the secret meetings about the start of xai and what is now going to be grok. and how the data feeds, it didn't occur to me when he was doing twitter that he was getting this great data feed. >> you only going to do dead guys now? >> yeah, i did, after i did kissinger said, man, somebody dead 200 years. >> you should not name a street -- i love pete roase, bu people said that after pete rose way in cincinnati and all the gambling stuff. >> if you write about people that don't have flaws -- >> i'll let you do me if you want.

good morning. major averages riding some long daily winning ning streaks. the dow has been up six straight sessions. its longest stretch sincetha

those 13 up days in the summer. rates in the fed also in focus. last week's cooler than expected jobs report raises new questions about whether the u.s. central bank is done hiking rates. and in minutes, we'll hear from chicago fed president, austan goolsbee. and with less than one year to go until the 2024 presidential election, we're taking a look at how america's youth feels about finances and the economy. we'll bring you brand-new polling data as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernan. along with becky quick and andrew. he's going to be walking behind me any second. he'll return following his interview with uber's ceo and

lie liesmaniacs, take notice. liesman is here. and pretty soon we'll be interviewing the president. of the chicago fed. austan goolsbee. he refers to himself as the president. actually, he doesn't refer to himself, he just insists that i refer to him as president. so i don't know if he calls himself that. >> i don't think so. he's sort of a humble guy, with everybody but you. >> yeah. >> you can call me the queen. >> oh, i do. u.s. equities at this hour down -- >> you can call me earl. >> what's that? >> you can call me earl. >> that's my corgi's name? my daughter's corgi, actually. yeah, earl. treasury yields indicated -- or not indicated -- are about 4.6, let's see the 10-year, 4.62. they were below that yesterday.

inched up a little bit since then. >> came back up. >> let's get right to our first big name of the hour. steve liesman joins us with a special guest! >> yes, let's bring in austan goolsbee, the chicago fed president. austan, there will be questions about the title and the correct title to use for you and things like that. >> president. mr. president. >> we will get to that in ae second, but i want to ask you this question. by the way, austan, thanks for joining us this morning. >> you bet. >> so feels like the last two weeks we've been through like seven different cycles. we hit 450 -- 5% on the 10-year on the 23rd of october, then we fell down to 4.50 earlier this week, now back up to 4.60. tell us about how you are thinking about the change in long-term yields, the effect on the economy and the effect on policy. thank you. >> well, look, the first thing is you've got to try to look through two-week movements of

any variable and that's true for long rates, that's true for short rates, that's true for one-month data set. so i'm trying not to get overly worked up about tweak movements. if the long rates are sustained at high levels, that is most likely tightening. it depends partly why the rates are going up, but if that's coming from term premium and it's tightening that we've got to take that into account. we should expect to see that with the lag working its way through the economy. so we're all paying attention and trying to figure out what's driving it. >> can you put some numbers around that? i kind of get that concept, but what the street seems to be clamoring for is this idea -- well, is 4.50 too loose? because what happened on friday, what happened before that was that everybody was saying, you know what, we're up near 5%.

that means it was restrictive. now we're down to 4.50 and we had economists saying, you know what, maybe that brings the fed back in, because it's too low. what's the ban you're looking at, uaustan to say, this is restrictive and this is not. >> there's two parts to that. first, you have to figure out what is driving the long rate up, when it's going up, what's driving it up. because there are some aspects where the long rate going up is replacement for short run tightening, if you want to think of it that way. but there are some circumstances, if you thought what was happening was they were changing their outlook for what the long-term growth rate is, the implications of that are very different than if -- what was happening was changing outlook for expectations of what inflation was going to be. that would be driving up long rates, but it wouldn't have an implication that it was about tightening in the same way. so, you can't really answer. that's the short way of saying, you cannot answer what number

equals enough tightening and what doesn't. because, let's remember that the other thing that's happening is we're getting some supply, positive supply shock developments that are working their way through the economy. so you can't just look at gdp growth being very strong for the quarter, our big jobs numbers for the month and say, ah, that means demand is overheating, because you got the supply part that's working its way through. >> austan, last week was an interesting week, not only from the standpoint of interest rates, but also the economy. those ism numbers that are followed so closely by the market, both in the service sector and the manufacturing sector weakened. we got one of the lower jobs reports we've had in a long time fw , including downward revisions to prior numbers. what's your take on the extent to which the economy is weakening and how much concern do you have that the weakening doesn't stop at the soft landing, but maybe becomes a recession? >> yeah, look, it's weakening,

and it had to weak, you would think that we had gdp growth that was almost 5% for the quarter. it's hard to view that that would be trend growth. so i think part of this would be expected. if you look on the job market side, most of the measures, not just a single month job report, job creation, but ratios of vacancies to the unemployed, looking at the speed of wage growth slowing down. the job market is getting into better balance. and i kind of think that the -- that so far the slowdown is what you would want, is what you would expect. it's moving to a more balanced growth, sustainable level. if that were to continue, then for sure we've got to be mindful of the conditions. i mean, we don't want to pre-commit ourselves -- you know, i don't like

pre-committing on what we're going to do on rates, at the next meeting, much less over the next year, but it did seem like people were getting themselves into a big argument about what would rates be a year and two years from now. >> mr. president -- >> i like the beginning of that. i like that a lot, joe. >> mr. president, i don't think you'll admit my premise, so then i can't give you kudos for being right. no, would you admit that maybe you were more reluctant to be overly tight at the last few meetings, more than some of your colleagues, and maybe were warning of the possible lag effects that are impossible to calculate? what i'm trying to say is, you were rightly dovish, and i think the market has played into your -- what you thought was going to happen, i think, is happening right now. i don't think we're going to need another hike. i'm not sure we needed the last

one. and so you're not going to admit any dissent with your colleagues, but i still -- weren't you somewhat reluctant to vote with the hike? a couple of times, or at least once? >> well, you've got a lot of questions in there, joe. as you know, the rules for -- i don't speak for anyone else on the committee but myself. i've been saying for months that the thing that we want to be paying attention to, as you look at the mandate, by law, we want to stabilize prices and maximize employment. i've been saying for months, be careful looking at the traditional size of "if growth is high," if the job market is strong, and we're creating a lot of jobs, that that means demands is overheating, because i've thought these supply shocks are working their way through. that the overwhelming thing we need to do is pay attention to inflation and get the inflation

down. the employment side of the mandate's going well. it's been -- the inflation has been the problem. and i just want to emphasize, inflation has come down a lot. if you look over the last 100 years, in years that are not demobilizations for world war ii and stuff like that, in the last hundred years, the fastest drop in the inflation rate in any year was 1982, of course, at the peak of the volcker tightening. and depending which measure of inflation you want to use, it was a little over 4% drop in a single year. we'll see what happens over the next couple of months. we might equal the fastest drop in inflation in the last century. so we're making progress on the inflation rate. and as long as we're making progress, as i have been saying for a while, the moment of arguing how high should the rate

go is going to fade to, how long should we keep rates at this level, as inflation is coming down. >> maybe it was transitory all along. maybe it was transitory -- >> everything is transitory all along. >> life is transitory. >> austin, let me just ask you. this is a period of -- like, this is a period of inflection, and at those moments, this is when it really gets down to the brass tacks of the two mandates, the duel mandate that the fed has. when you have a question between the two of them, let's say the jobs market gets much weaker, you're facing higher unemployment. let's say inflation is stubbornly higher or maybe even sticking up there and rising a little bit more from the rate that it's already at, which of those two is the more important mandate? greenspan was always very clear, if you took care of the inflation issue, the rest of the mandate would work out on its own. do you share that same thing, or if push comes to shove, which is the more important mandate?

>> at this moment, it's clear that inflation is the more important part of the mandate. because we got far behind on that side while the unemployment side has remained remarkably strong. so i don't know that there's a philosophical answer at all times, but at this time for sure, we've got to get inflation down. that's the number one thing. >> austan, i want to ask you two questions. they're both the same questions, but maybe one you'll answer, one you won't. first question is, are you done? the other way i would ask the question is, can you talk about the conditions by which you would say you're done? >> well, and it sounds like you're playing into exactly the thing that i was saying in the market. i don't want to get into. i don't like pre-committing what the rates are going to be at the next meeting, when we still have weeks at the next meeting.

what am i going to vote for over the next year. for sure we cannot answer that, until we see what the conditions are. that seems straight forward. my conditions for when we should be done is we're back on path, clearly, to get inflation down to target. now, we've made a lot of progress, and i think anybody that's saying that we're stalling out on inflation or it hasn't been enough, would do well to remember this fact that we're among the fastest falling inflation rate years in the last century. that's a path that looks good, but the inflation rate is still down where the target is and i'm absolutely hammering that's what we should be watching. the priority should not be on

gdp growth and job growth, it should be on inflation rate. >> if inflation falls more and you remain at the current level, doesn't that mean you've gotten tighter when it comes to policy? >> it does. it gets more restrictive, because the real rate is going up -- >> so why would you want to be more restrictive if inflation is falling further? >> well, it depends what the conditions are. if inflation is falling further, but you convinced yourself it was going to stop somewhere above target, you would still want to be restrictive. >> okay. right now, the market has built in rate cuts next year, actually pretty serious ones, about 100 basis points. do you feel that a need to think about -- kashkari seemed to be saying, don't get so sanguine with rate cuts, is that

something you feel a need to address? >> i -- it's hard to say that as a general rule. i mean, as you know, paul volcker was my great mentor. i worked with him in the financial crisis, and he used to always say, our job is to act. he was speaking of the fed. our job is to act and their job is to react. and let's not get the order mixed up. the financial conditions clearly matter, but tit can't be that te market tells the fed what to do when a bunch of the expectations are, well, what do they think the fed is going to do? let's not get ourselves in a circle. >> when do you think the situation is going to evolve such it's another inflection point here. i guess becky has a question in just a second, but do you have an outlook that you could share with us for next year? >> inflection point on growth or

on inflation or on rates -- >> on policy. >> on policy. look, i'm in the data dog caucus, like i told you. we're going to go by the conditions as a very midwestern thing. there is no bad weather, there is only bad clothing and we'll prepare and deal with it, whatever it is. i feel, as i have been saying for some time, that unusually, for a soft landing of this magnitude, there has never been an inflation rate drop to get inflation down as much as we're getting it down, without a big recession. that's basically never happened, but because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path that i call it, that we got inflation down without a rece recession. if that happened, in a way, that wouldn't be an inflection point, it would just be a continuation of what we've already seen this

year, which is unemployment up very modestly while inflation has come down a lot. >> thank you, before your next question, i want to explain something, would an economist like goolsbee talk about a supply shock, it can be positive and negative, and he's talk about a positive supply shock, which has come from both getting back from the pandemic stuff, but also the influx of people into the labor force. that's been a positive supply shock. >> austan, let me just ask you, you know, you were just talking about your job is to act and for everybody else to react. and that makes sense, but everything that the federal reserve is doing to try to bring down inflation is hampered. the headwind that you're facing is a lot of fiscal spending, coming from the government.

national debt is north of $33 trillion. is there a message from the fed to ever say to the fiscal authorities that, by the way, have oversight over you, to push back and say, hey, you guys are making our job tougher, you shouldn't be doing this. or is this too difficult to do, because this is the body that has oversight for the federal reserve? >> for me, it would not be appropriate for me to tell anybody in fiscal land what they should be doing with fiscal policy. that's congress' is the boss. and however they decide on spending on taxes, we, the fed, have got to take that into account as one of the financial conditions, but it would not be appropriate for me to be -- >> does it make your job tougher? >> it affects the economy and how the economy goes is how we determine our policy rates and we follow the data. >> there's a lot of disagreement

about what are the causes of long rates going up. we have to look at long rates, we have to figure out what the causes are to figure out, does that replace tightening or does that emphasize the importance of tightening? and so, for sure, we have to monitor the conditions. >> austan, i have -- maybe it's going to come across as a political question, and i don't know if steve got to this earlier at all, but -- i know that the fed is clearly independent and is supposed to be independent of this administration, but when you see polls around this administration as it relates to the economy. so many of the polls really, i think, are measuring a lot of frankly what you folks are doing. when you see the polls about how people feel about the economy today, and i know sort of intellectually, you can say the economy feels like it's in great place in many ways, but the feeling of average americans seems to be very negative. what do you think about that?

>> i kind of think two things. one, the mandate by law tells the fed what we're supposed to do, which is stabilize the prices and maximize employment. there's nothing about polling in our mandate. historically, consumer sentiment does affect consumer spending, and so it would filter through if you're watching the data, you would be monitoring business sentiment, consumer sentiment, and we do. the only thing that i will point out is some time around the great financial crisis, the relationship between reported consumer confidence and then future consumer spending, that relationship kind of broke down. and those -- those variables, as economic indicators, as opposed to political or indicators of something else, that's become a

lot less reliable measure. so i don't 100% know what to make of it or why the divergence between -- it's partly between the economic conditions data and the sentiment data, there's a discrepancy. there's also as big a discrepancy as we've ever seen in the question, how are your situation -- how's your financial situation? good. how's the economy? bad. that discrepancy has never been bigger. so something weird is going on. >> we have to go, but it is true. a lot of -- an awful lot of pessimistic and angry people are doing an awful lot of spending. >> right. >> and that's why -- hopefully we can have you back soon and we can talk about that. i think there's sort of this feeling in america, and i'm trying to understand what that feeling -- where it comes from, what it is, and how it relates frankly to how you do your job. >> sold more cars in the wake of 9/11 than almost any other time. >> austan, thank you so much for

joining us. >> because financing went to zero. and if you had cash -- >> but if you were really upset about 9/11, you would think that you wouldn't buy a car anyway. >> or take mass transit. coming up, a pulse check on the state of the consumer. how they're handling higher interest rates and cooling, but d hnl evaluated inflation. anjo hope bryant will join us. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. when you think of investment risk,

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we're watching shares of uber right now. the ride-hailing giant missing third quarter analyst profit and expectations. it was uber's second-straight sales miss after revenue beats. gross beatings book uber's prior guidance and the company gave upbeat current quarter forecast for booking and core profit. that stock off a little over 1% right now. here's ceo dara khosrowshahi on "squawk box" last hour. >> if you look at the business itself and the trend of the business, trip growth, we did 2.4 billion trips this quarter, up on a year over year basis. actually accelerated from the last quarter. same thing in terms of gross

bookings growth and profitability. >> once again, shares of uber now at 47.30, coming down just a bit. i believe they're starting their phone call. i don't know if it's happening right now or just about to start, so we'll see. some of those revenue numbers, as we're talking about the business model shift in terms of how they account for them. meantime, coming up, new polling data on how america's youth feels about finances in the economy. you don't want to miss the results from this survey. ayun.d "squawk box" returns in just a moment.

still to come, breaking international trade data. then perspective from operation hope's john hope bryant. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." rick santelli here live at cmhq. our september read on the trade balance which is a deficit, minus $61.5 billion. that's a bit larger deficit than the 59 we were expecting and in the rearview mirror, 58.3 now becomes 58.7. that's a minus sign, of course. that deficit was the smallest in three years. so we popped up just a bit. and just to put a face on it, pre-covid, the deficits were a bit smaller.

a lot of that has to do with our consumption economy, doing better than others. of course, loweringour exports and keeping imports a bit stronger. we see that yields, well, yields have continued to hover at the lower end of a recent range, but that range has been awfully accelerated, basically from 5% down to 4.5. here we hover at 461. that's down three basis points. the big news of the morning, ultimately, is going to turn into an auction this afternoon. three-year, $48 billion, versus $46 billion. remember all of that talk and action that the market had supposedly because supply was $112 billion for this 310 30-year package. last time we had this package of 3s, 10s, and 30s, it was $101 billion. this is $11 billion bigger. you want to pay attention to these auctions. they're sort of the canary in

the debt coal mine, sort of. >> meantime, i want to get to our next guest, he's joining us at the table to talk about the impact that higher rates are having on american consumers and businesses. and on that note, minneapolis fed president neel kashkari indicating to the "wall street journal" just yesterday, he's not convinced that rate hikes are over. i want to welcome john hope bryant, he's operation hope's chairman and ceo. what's going to happen if we have more rate hikes? >> well, people will have to figure out to do with too much month at the end of your money. you have 70% of this country that was living paycheck to paycheck before the pandemic. half of those who make $100,000 or year. used to be a so-called poor person's problem. half of those making $100,000 a year are paycheck to paycheck. you're in manhattan, you make a quarter million dollars a year, a third of those are living from paycheck to paycheck. so financial literacy is not

going to be a ball that solves everything, but it would have allowed us to take a spin to make an investment during the pandemic, because those trillions of dollars are not coming back anytime soon. part of whatwear dealing now is washing away that or paying off all of those stimulus payments, some of which were overdone, probably $2 trillion. >> ow do you think about this issue of balancing employment or unemployment with inflation right now? i mean, this is the central question the fed has to deal with, but also the question that the economy has to deal with. and frankly as we enter an election year, it becomes a political issue. >> fed speak and political speak are two different conversations. that's why certain -- >> what's the on the ground speak then? >> the on the ground speak was where i was yesterday at "forbes" black, where you had absolutely packed room of entrepreneurs. packed. black entrepreneurs, trying to get access to opportunity for themselves to build, to create jobs. so yes, you can have a conversation, do i cash a check,

employment, or do i write one? what we found coming out of the pandemic is you have the largest uptick of small business starts since i think 2004, i think the number is, the largest group, andrew, overall, were black businesses, and the largest group of all businesses were black women. so, yes, you have this traditional conversation of, you know, yes, in order to balance this, you have to have a certain level of unemployment. what we're not talking about is the magic of america, and that is small business creation. >> it's too bad, some policy mistakes may have helped make inflation worse and the people that have to deal with the higher interest rates are the people that can least afford to deal with the higher interest rates. and it can be inflationary housing costs, not being able to start a small business, because it costs too much. there are consequences to taming inflation for everybody else, that, you know, affect some people more than others. >> so we can have -- two things can be true at the same time. so what you just said is, of

course, true. the higher costs, the higher interest rates are putting a pinch on people. we've seen a 38% increase in operational clients for counseling this year. we've seen a 43% increase in counseling sessions. it's almost 50% year over year, people are coming for counseling. and these are middle class folks, not just -- >> and these are folks trying to deal with credit card debt? they're trying to deal with getting a mortgage? right now, getting a mortgage, obviously, buying a home, first time buying a home out of the gate is a very complicated situation and a very expensive situation. >> yes, well, as you know, if you look at historic interest rates, actually, today, it's not so bad. it's actually pretty -- >> but tell the person who had the rate two years ago -- >> we are telling that person. we're counseling them. by the way, there are options for certain people that they don't know about, like the community reinvestment act, which is $500 billion a year, which does allow, if you get financial counseling from us, et

cetera, you have a shot at undermarket rates, you now, it's not a giveaway. you have to pay the loan back, but it's undermarket. >> for a business or for a home? >> these are actually for both. community reinvestment act is $500 billion a year, a capital stack that nobody thinks about, fdic-insured banks. it's mortgages, it's small businesses. and if you low-to-moderate income communities, black, red, white, it doesn't matter, and certain things like financial literacy, you can access a slightly lower rate, joe, which speaks to the comment that you made. the reality is we had free money for -- you know, you guys do this all the time. free money for almost, you know, 15 years. we had to get out of that. and i think the pandemic was an excuse, frankly, for the fed to do a reset and try to get this place normalized, because i don't think that was sustainable. because we're a consumer-spending economy, that hits at the average person, which is my client.

i'm seeing this bar bebell effe. on the one hand, more counseling sessions, we're the counselor for delta airline employees, i was on the plane last night, all the people who were on the plane were at my counseling sessions. that's positive. because of this, they're becoming more financial literate. on the other hand, people are dealing with the very real realities of, what bill do i say? and they're startinging businesses and trying to find more opportunities -- >> what are cash balances like right now? >> oh, they're negative. in low-to-moderate income households. they're negative cash values. >> and how different is that than how you think it was 12 months ago, 18 months ago? >> night and day. >> night and day? >> night and day, because you had the stimulus money. and unfortunately, when you're financially literate, you think, this is going to last forever. we're not talking about poor people here, we're talking about average, everyday people who live present in the moment. so again, you have -- you have now an opportunity to make --

here's the good news. i've been coming on your show for a long time saying this. i'm not sure it resonated before. financial literacy is the civil rights issue of this generation. we're in corporations doing it with employees, harley davidson, venetian hotel, you name it. we have a big one coming up. me and doug mcmillan of walmart, co-chairing financial literacy of all. they see this as what health care was 45 years ago. >> what about people who don't work for those major companies? how do they get access to this? >> they can just call us. literally, anybody watching this can go down with the hope and hand happen or call us and get -- we're like a private banker for the working class. we're raising credit scores 54 points in six months. we're lowering debt $3,800 for somebody making $48,000 a year. increasing savings $1,500, which makes that person bankable. >> are you suggesting that people take mortgages that are 30-year mortgages, are you telling people, given where

things are, that you should take a seven-year a.r.m.? what are you telling people to do -- a lot of people are probably sitting at home going, these rates are pretty high. i need to buy the property or whatever i'm trying to do now. but i don't know, should i be locking it in issue the. >> you can always refinance. >> you can refinance. a lot of people are trying to make a decision about which is the way to counter counterintuitive. i watch a lot of shows where some wealthy person is telling a person, don't buy a home, it's the stupidest thing you can ever do, and they own a home. real estate is the biggest business in the world and the best way for a poor person to build wealth is home ownership. and prices for homes are probably not going down. there are markets where there's a bubble, but generally speaking, real estate has gone up -- go ahead. >> i would say, buy and buy 30-year fixed so you don't get caught unawares. know what you're in for. >> we can help you get all the benefits that are available to you, because there are programs we don't know about, down

payment assistance and community reinvestment act and earned income tax credit. people don't know about that. if somebody is watching this, who has a secretary, who's making $60,000 a year or less, becky, that person has a check coming into them. someone that makes p$38,000, ha three children, has a check of about $6,000 cash coming to them and it's retroactive for three years if you haven't filed. that's more money than they've seen for one time in their life. that's a bonus for working. you combine all of that and becomes help with the down payment, help with a maintenance account. and in the community reinvestment act, we can probably get 100 or 200 basis points below standard interest rates, slide them into something that they can actually afford, and then when this thing harmonizes out -- i don't think rates are going back down to where we've seen them, but when it harmonizes out and your credit score goes up, we can refinance you into a better deal. but don't wait. i don't believe prices are going down. >> i agree with you. >> get into this game and buy

something now. become a part of the american dream. 75% of my white counterparts own a home, 41 to 43% of my black counterparts own a home. there it is right there. you build wealth through home ownership. and so if you look at the frustration and what's going on politically in rural america, and my poor white friends, i think they're riding at the ballot box. that's what it is. i think they're frustrated. nobody is paying attention to them for 40 or 50 years, somebody is paying attention to them. this is not anger and resentment, it's not a business plan. we need something where we all come up, and i think that financial literacy, when i raise the credit score in rural white mississippi, nobody cares about my color. like, thank you, john. when i do it in urban detroit, thank you, john, and all of a sudden anger turns to optimism. so what i want to see is for us to take this moment and turn it into an opportunity -- >> thank you for bringing us some hope.

thank you, sir. >> my pleasure. when we come back, we'll take a look at how america's youth feels about finances and the economy. we've got new data you won't ayun.anywhere else. st ted you're watching "squawk box," right here on cnbc. [alarm clock ringing] (♪♪) [van engine] (♪♪) [card reader chimes] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [kitchen bell dings] [inaudible chatter] [keyboard clicking] (♪♪)

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no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. economic issues in focus as voters head to the polls on this

election day. we're exactly one year out now from the 2024 presidential. today we have some new data conducted by generation lab. just two insights from the circle of 1,000 18 to 34-year-olds. half said they expected inflation to very negatively impact their financial well-being in the future, and nearly 40% said they expected mortgage prices to have a similar negative affect. joining us now is pollster sigh last beshlarge. we just had a long conversation about how all things are looking at things about their mortgage rates, do it now, housing is expensive, but you want to own a house. what'd you find out? >> yeah, no, not a good picture. we found that young people look at the economy the same way that rest of america looks at the

economy. but before talking about young people, voters, the first thing we have to talk about is the fact that they're not voting much. talk about a youth wave wave, you've got to figure out tactics to get them out to the polls to talk about what issues matter most to to young people. >> historic levels. you have to figure out why the other 70% didn't vote. >> you have to come to the realization that your vote, it's only one, but you put it together with everybody else and then it becomes important.

but when you're young, it's hard to see that. in general, would you say it's more prevalent -- we're wasting youth on the young. they should be optimistic? >> they're optimistic, but it's a reflex to look at young people as sort of caricatures of themselves. >> on a hoverboard. >> while drinking a white law. >> we should go back to playing games on the nintendo? >> yeah, there's that reflex that's not true? none of that's true. >> part of that is true, but there's a reflex to look at young people through that caricature. we call it geezer goggles. >> reporter: i don't we are glasses. >> we did your poll with 18 to 35, because we think that oftentimes those geezer goggles come out when leaders in business, leaders in media, leaders in policy are making

giant decisions about big products for young people. and if you're working with sketchy data, non-existent data, you're going to get a sketchy product. so they're worried about inflation, though? >> yeah, young people aren't martians. they might be on a hovered board, shrugging white claw, but they're not martians. they view the economy the way other people do. >> what's their biggest issue. >> climate hange. what's in the background at all times, climate change. what do you do about that? above my pay grade. >> so invest with esg priorities? they are investing 18 to 35-year-olds and that's what's driving their way?

>> yeah, yeah. they definitely value esg principles. but you talk about the geezer goggles, you know, at the end of the day, there's an idea that young people, you know, they're all marxists, they all want to -- they're allergic to the a market. and those that aren't are long crypto and short everything else, whatever. like, you got the vast majority of young people we found in the survey that think that the stock market is the place to build wealth long term, you know, don't have a lot of marxists buying vanguard etfs as far as the marxists i know. >> so what generation is that? is it a letter? are you z? >> yeah. >> you're z? >> 18 to 34, you've got z. and you also got the young millennials. >> some of the young millennials.

>> some of the young. >> my kids follow it, they know what's going on, on social media. is there any movement at all back to the center or to the right? some of my kids tell me that they see a lot of conservative thought making a comeback, is that not true? >> more than millennials, i think. >> what do you think about the fact that young people are pretty bullish in building wealth in the stock market? >> yeah, that doesn't sound like people are ahead of them, or behind them. whatever. >> 100%. >> what about mortgages? do they know what to do with that? they understand that, they want to own a home? >> absolutely. i mean, if millennials are living in the basement, where are those people living? >> in the big room next to them, in the basement. i mean, i think everybody wants to own a home but, yeah, mortgage prices, they're definitely -- you know, they're getting in the way, same issues from any other generation, for sure. >> let me ask you this, the

stock market, i don't think they're buying dupont. what are they buying? google, apple? >> so, we actually covered this, the team of cnbc actually had the idea of polling our audience, about 1200 folks that we surveyed on which companies they actually like the most. and this is just with respect to consumers, shockingly, again, they talk about whether or not they're vesting in esg prince el, it's a muddy picture, they like walmart, they like google, target. >> netflix? >> netflix -- that doesn't even top out. >> magnificent seven. >> costco. >> all right. we've got -- by the time they're 35, 40, maybe they'll be in some of these companies. everybody goes through sort of an evolution. at least i did. where are you, andrew?

are you millennial? >> no, i'm not millennial. >> you're generation y i think. >> no. i'm gen x. >> your x. millennial, then y? why did we skip -- >> what about jobs? how do they feel about jobs? i mean, that's been the biggest thing people have pointed to. the ability to job-hop. the desire to say, yes, i want these things, i'm going to work for it. how does that play out? >> two things, number one, loyalty. the fact that the vast majority of folks that we polled said they feel extremely loyal to their employer. that flies in the nation of the gen-zers, they feel lawyer to their boss and something to

capitalize on. >> thank you, cyrus. >> tnkhas. coming up, we'll get you ahead of the trading day on wall street. we're coming right back.

in a crisis caused by a terrorist massacre. warning civilians to clear out, while hamas forces them back. allowing in food and water, which hamas steals. all right. it's a little more than a half

hour to go in the opening bell on wall street. we want to talk about the markets with megan corn samman. megan, we've seen yields overplays, do you think yields will rise from here? >> i think investors are too optimistic and the fed can come in and cut rates, right now, the market is pricing in a significant amount of rate cuts. even the first half. the feds, even though they took that pause, we've got other speech we've been seeing over the recent days and this morning, they may not be done, especially looking at rate cuts anytime soon. >> you do think a recession is coming, though? >> yeah, unfortunately, we do think it's unavoidable. there's way too many of these recession dominants that we call have continued to fall.

we're not looking for a sharp retraction, a prolonged recession. but we are looking for a healthy retraction that is necessary to get it under control in the labor market. this is necessary. i'm not so sure why everybody is so afraid it happening, in order for to us continue to get on the next bull market in equities, as well as economic expansion, we have to get these things under control. >> your message to people isn't necessarily to sell. maybe it is to sell the values. the more interesting point, you better have some dry pattern because you there's there's nor volatility and swings? >> yeah, we do think that. we've been raising cash throughout the year with the rallies this year. at this point, we're relatively neutral. with the equity perspective, it's the best place to be in the long run but you want to be cautious, in defensive areas of the market as well as having that extra cash that you can put to work.

we do think, we have a rally now, it's a positive season for equities. we just see way too many headwinds that stack up not only against the economy but at the market the end of this year and next year. >> you're saying high growth sectors i guess you're talking technology? >> yeah from a pe perspective, the pes are too high, looking at large cap growth or the s&p 500 in general. the the pes are too high. it's starting to get restrictive, and pes at these levels, we're not pricing in that and certainly not higher rates for long. >> thank you, megan, for the words of caution. to the markets, we see the futures are down but not out. the dow down and futures off by

55, and nasdaq has turned positive, up by 25 points. the ten-year, maybe the thing driving this, you'll see the ten-year yield is slightly lower, 4.6%. two-year, 4.93. folks that does it for us today. make sure you join us back here tomorrow. we'll see you then right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl edwards with david faber on the stock exchange. the consolidation continues with balance futures mostly red, even with yields mostly lower. seven fed speakers today, oil below 80 to a two-month low. the rally pause, s&p poised for a lower open after a six-way win streak. >> and d.r. horton delivers an earnings beat with an upbeat forecast. betting the housing demand wil