>> weiss? >> meta. i think it's got more room to run, even though the rally started to get a little tighter here. >> jason? >> comcast. they crushed even our expectations this quarter. >> and the good farmer. >> cisco systems. it's been flat for a few months. it's a good entray point. >> see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. ahead this hour, the curious case of the american consumer. healthy? not healthy? seems to depend on where you look. pets is still very strong, helping one stock soar nearly 20% in a week. we have the name and ceo ahead. and then travel, entertainment, conventions, another area of strength, leading to a solid third quarter for one name. the ceo joins us ahead, as well. but then, there's the new

york's fed report showing dlin again sis rising in some areas, and one guest suggests a rough holiday quarter ahead. we'll look at which market strategy to deploy. let's start with that report out of the new york fed on household debt and credit. delinquencies are still below prepandemic levels but jumped significantly from the second quarter, going from less a half percent to 3%, with a large uptick with borrowers with both student and auto loans. for more on these reports, i'm joined by lendingtree's matt schultz, here onset with our very own steve liesman. great to have you both here. steve, maybe just set us up. did i capture that correctly that we saw this big jump in delinquencies? >> and we remain below the pandemic level. if i was the pilot of the plane, i was say, put on your seat belt, this is the landing. we have some information from the control tower that things are going to be a little bumpy.

but we're not necessarily going to crash. the first graphic here looks at the total delinquencies, right? and this is the number you're looking at. when you look at the chart, you see the uptick, but you see that it's still well below -- okay, this is the new delinquencies right there. what i did, these are some of my own calculations, is compared it to the five-year average. you can see the new transitions, big jump on credit cards. why? that's intrasensitive. so that's a big thing. a little more on autos, kind of close. mortgages, still down below. overall still down below, but that overall thing does not include student loans. they're on hiatus right now. and then guys, there's one more chart that shows the overall delinquency levels. that's the one. that's the landing part there. if you were listening on the radio, it's a chart that slopes down from left to right, and it starts to tick up on the right. how is that description, is that

right? >> not only is it good, but it's interesting that going back to the fourth quarter of 2019, we were near 5%. >> it's two percentage points below that. that 3% number is still better than before. now you tell me, or maybe my expert to my right will explain where it stops. >> matt, what do you think? >> well, i think that we're going to see tldelinquencies to rise. to a degree, it's a little normalization of things, as things have been historically low recently, especially with credit cards, we're seeing delinquencies rise with subprime folks along with that debt rising. and what it seems to me is that even though people are generally handling their business pretty well, it just feels like there are a lot of people who are not that far away from really struggling, who may be a job loss or a medical emergency or something like that away from really having some struggles. so it's a difficult time to know. >> it's a good point.

you want to see the most resilience when you are going into a time when we might see rising layoffs. so credit cards, the rates are going up sharply. that is one area for concern. we have been talking about access to credit, so we're seeing -- we saw this in the loan office survey yesterday, you mentioned credit cards, as well. it's on both sides, people are facing troubles but having more difficulty getting access to new products. >> yeah. in the credit card space, in that loan officer survey yesterday, it indicated that both lending standards were tightening and demand was down. so when you think about that and you talked about demand being down for new cards and debt rising, it's a sign that people maybe aren't that confident and maybe hunkering down a little bit. whereas, if they were building debt and still applying, maybe people are feeling good starting that small business, remodeling their house, that sort of thing. >> steve, what can you add?

>> i thought you were going to ask me, how has it worked out before? so guys in the back, we made a new chart. >> can i nuance the question? >> it's your show. [ laughter ] >> has it ever not ended in a very -- i look at that chart and i say clearly it's going up, you know, and it's just a question of exactly how long and how high. >> part of the thing is the question, if you're asking are delinquencies rising, does that mean it's bad for the economy and consumer spending? the other question, are we going to have a bank problem? this other chart we made, i think betsy just put nit there. is it there? that's the one. if you can look at the shaded areas, those are prior recessions, okay? you can see we have had very different experiences. let's start on the left. a minor decrease essentially in what's current, okay?

then you have a huge decrease after '08, '09. you got a big problem there. and then you have the weirdness of the post pandemic period where the percent of loans current went up, because we put lots of cash in people's pockets. now just at the very end, you have this little dip down. so how is it going to end up relative to history? you can have different outcomes relative to -- are you going to have a systemic problem? i don't think so at these levels here. and by the way, there's one little way i wanted to do, jamie dimon always seems to me to -- >> overly bearish? >> overly bearish. any way, jamie, i'm sorry. >> you think the next step is they might have done too many credit -- >> so they add it back. it's reserving for the bad credit. he seems to always do that. >> matt, final word before we get to these bond auction results coming in. same question we left steve

with, what would you be watching now? steve's data points has two different things that could happen. there's the gentle move we went through in the 2000s, and then there's the much more extreme global financial crisis. >> i don't think we're going the see a repeat of 2008, 2009. but i think the big x factor in all of this is student loan repayments. because that's going to make a big difference in the household budget for a lot of families. we won't see those delinquencies reported for a year because of the grace period. in terms of reporting. but that may be a real underlying thing where, even if people's credit scores may stay stable, what's really cooking underneath and in their budgets may not be that great. >> but is there a reason to think it's going to be worse once these come back? i will tell you this, the economists at the new york fed, in talking about this survey, are a little purrerplexed why

delinquencies are rising with growth as strong and unemployment as low as it's been. we may get back to that normal delinquency level once we include student loans. or it could be worse. >> yeah, and i think interest rates on credit cards may be the answer to that, because they're at all-time record highs. just sky high. >> that's a great point. matt, steve, thank you both. as we mentioned, three-year notes were up for auction. more scrutiny on these treasury auctions than ever before. rick sen taelli is here with th results. >> the grade, b minus. we're talking about 48 billion three-year votes. the dutch auction yield, 4.071. the one issue market, 4.70. so priced on top of where it needed to be. all the metrics were basically right on or slightly above

average, except forbid to cover. it was only a whisker below its average. not a bad start to an action. and when you look at 48 billion in three years, look at the chart, you can see the market has an opinion. yields are moving lower, which means it wasn't a horrible auction. why am i framing it that way? we have 112 billion, when you look at these 48 billion. tomorrow's ten-year, 40 billion. well, the package, many were thinking it could be around 114 billion. so two billion cheaper. look at all the buying we've seen. but it's 11 billion more than it was the last time we had 3s, 10s, and 30s. so we really want to monitor the long dated auctions yet to come. but this is the first canary in the coal mine, and it seems to be tweeting pretty good, kelly. not a bad auction. >> rick, thank you very much. we appreciate you bringing that to us.

those rising delinquencies we just talked about would be a warning sign going into the shopping season, and both my guests are expecting a weaker season, but it should also help to keep inflation down. here to explain are my two guests. welcome to both of you. great to have you both here. julie, let me start with you. what you're seeing as you kind of look you there the stocks and are trying to piece together your portfolio into year end, what cracks do you see emerging? >> well, i think looking at the transports, i like to use those as an early indication of where goods are moving. we had so much volatility post covid that it was hard to get a sense of it. but what you are seeing is that while pricing remains strong in transports, volumes are weak. that's just a function of normalization of inventory levels. last year, retailers had way too much inventory.

now not as much. it's important to be differentiated in retail. coming out of covid, we had more money. i could have made more money selling macaroni bracelets my kids were making. but now inflation is really stinging consumers. so you have to show great value. that's why off price is better positioned than most average retailers. >> sure, as the inventory goes through the channels, as well. brian, explain why you think this is so important, a little bit of this slowdown dynamic that we are seeing into the holiday season and what it could mean for inventories, inflation, and even the fed? >> well, as julie mentioned, inventories are high. they've been growing triple the pace prepandemic. and inventory turnover has slowed. that's even worse in the semiconductor area. and when the ports were blocked

on the west coast two years ago, goods piled up, people doubled and tripled their order, leading to inflation. once the ports open, we had a flood of goods coming in, and that's still persisting. it's going to take two years to work these stocks down, especially with slowing sales. so i've said on the program before, we've been in a manufacturing recession, excluding autos, since april of last year, making it harder for companies to draw down inventories. and that's a positive for bond prices, which is, you know, it's good for stock prices. >> you can tell the story you're telling, brian, and have it be very negative. but you think falling bond yields will ultimately be supportive? >> most of the gains in stocks this year have been from buybacks. retail investors have kind of rolled over. institutional investors have become more bearish. so you want to look at the

companies that are growing. i favor the companies that have enough cash flow to buy back their stock. that's where the gains have come in the past year. i think more so going forward. >> it's funny as we hear apple has bought back $600 billion of its own stock in the last several years, and obviously, even they sometimes can struggle. so julie, what other manufacturing names do you like here? simpson manufacturing, talk about why. we saw the ism earlier this week, 12th straight month of contraction. >> we understand that we're still underhoused in a massive way, right? but most people living at home have low interest rates for 30 years. they're not selling. they don't want to sell for less and buy a smaller house that they have to pay more for. so existing home sales are just at a lock. so it's up to new home sales to make up the difference. the problem i have is when you buy home builders, you are exposed to specific geographic

markets, and you have higher than average risks. i would rather own a manufacturer that has 70% market share of the home builders, in a product that's in the building codes. that's simpson manufacturing that supports the structure. it's pretty critical. but it's a small cost to the build, so i think they're much better positioned. it's a pristine balance sheet. those are the balancies i would rather own. >> so you think it will be a tough holiday season for traditional retailers? >> i think so, yes. i don't think they're particularly well positioned. the level of inventory is really very difficult. it's just clear that the consumer is looking for something very specific to get out there and shop. they spent all their money on taylor swift concerts, right? the only way to get someone to shop is if you have something special and unique. that's not an environment that everyone does well. i'm most concerned about the mid

retail vendor. >> brian, last word. >> in agreement with julie, i think it's going to be tough for the large retailers to "shake it off," as taylor swift would say. butthat's good for bond yields and inflation. consumers will buy if they feel there's value. and i think prices have to come down before they see that value and pick up their spending again. >> we'll leave it there. we appreciate your time today. coming up, kind of staying on the theme about reading the room, we'll hear from one of the largest lodging reits in the world, the owner of the grand ole opry no less. what they are seeing with entertainment spending, next. the white gold rush. lithium stocks are down on slowing ev sales, but one mining company is seeing record demand growth for the mineral itself. we'll check back in with the ceo of piedmont lithium later in the show. here's a quick look at the markets. today, we started lower and

turned positive. dow up 76 points. s&p is up 15. nasdaq is up a full percent as the ten-year yield hangs there. back after this. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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hospitality. the lodging reit rising yesterday on the earnings report. they own convention resorts and a couple of concert venues, and their strength is coming from the return of corporate bookings while leisure spending is declining. here is the president and ceo, mark, welcome to the show. good to see you. >> thanks for having me, kelly. >> i am familiar with the grand ole opry, spent only time there. i think i saw vince gill there. can you speak to whether this kind of much hyped trend of spending on entertainment is something that you are seeing and is broad based, or what it was going on with a little bit of this decline that you mentioned. >> we are continuing to see broad-based spending across our businesses, both in the hotel business, as well as

entertainment. on the hotel side, that is both in the group business and our hotels are primarily large convention hotels with 70% of our business's group. we're seeing strong spending there, both in terms of rate and outside the room spending in areas like banqueting. we're also seeing it on the leisure side. as we look into the fourth quarter, we're seeing solid leisure demand with our sales up, our pace of sales up in the fourth quarter over the last year, which was a record for us. >> with moderation of regular vacation rates declining, is that right? >> our vacation -- our leisure rates are holding up, as well as outside the room spending. what we are seeing is a stronger growth trend coming out of the pandemic on the group side. >> absolutely. how much more does that have to run, where are we compared with prepandemic levels and how much further could that go?

>> well, from a perspective in this third quarter, we were 39% of revenue versus the third quarter of 2019, profitability was up 44%. as we look at our group business moving forward, our business end of the books for 2024 is 10% ahead of where it was at the same time last year. we're up 12% for 2025, compared to the same time last year. >> that's so interesting. so basically, the corporate is back, and your results are much better than they were prepandemic. do you think that's sustainable? >> we do. we do. the reason we think it's sustainable is a couple of reasons. number one, the pandemic made everyone realize you have to bring people together, particularly large groups, if you want to talk about culture strategy, products, et cetera. so coming out of the pandemic, there was a strong move back to bringing people together.

i think the other issue that's driving some of our growth is, we have made significant investments in our properties since 2020. we looked at the pandemic as an opportunity to go on the offensive, and we deployed approximately $1.7 billion in capital across both our businesses. whether that's enhancements, expansions, or acquisitions in new properties. >> you have major complexes in san antonio, i mentioned nashville, kissimmee, florida, grapevine, texas, colorado, even in maryland at national harbor. so that cap ex is paying off. how much are higher prices driving returns and is that a trend where we are seeing moderation? >> higher prices are driving returns. we are seeing, though, that, you know, business levels have returned to prepandemic levels in terms of the -- part of the issue, we think that the pricing is sustainable, because we

haven't invested in the properties. we have enhanced the product and the experience. you know, consumers look for value, they don't necessarily just look at price. and we think that we're delivering a terrific price value in both instances. >> i have to imagine, i don't know if that was a debt finance to spending or straight-up cash, but you're probably glad you did it then versus now with interest rates being where they are. does that change business decisions you'll make in the next couple of years? >> no. we continue to have a number of growth projects that we're excited about. our balance sheet is in terrific shape. our leverage levels are back below prepandemic levels. we've got $1.3 billion of liquidity. our maturity schedule is in terrific shape. so we have the capacity and the ability to deploy capital and will continue to do that. across both businesses. currently, we are under construction in las vegas with a

new venue in conjunction with blake shelton called "old red." >> i was going to ask what you are most excited about in terms of some special events you might be offering around the holiday season. it's only something unique that will get the consumer to open up the wallet. what would that be for your company? >> for us on the hotel side, we had terrific holiday programming, for staystaycation and families. the corner of las vegas boulevard and flamingo, it is a terrific venue, overlooking the ballagio fountains, opening in january. >> mark, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, auction sales painting a not so rosy picture of the high-end consumer. and we'll look at the weakness in that market and what it's telling us about the economy. "the exchange" is back aerft

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welcome back to "the exchange." here's a look at markets which have turned positive and the nasdaq up for an eight-day stretch. dow is up 60. we were in the red to begin the morning, so we have moved into positive territory after that bond auction for three-year votes. as we're watching datadog. 29% surge in the shares today after they beat on the top and bottom line, raised full-year guidance. those results giving a boost to peers like snowflake. they're all still 12% and 18%

below their recent highs. but huge moves today. planet fitness is raising revenue guidance for the year and testing price hikes in 100 markets, raising the membership price from that $10 to $15 a month. remember, this is a name we heard could be impacted by the resumption of student loan payments. shares were hit hard when the ceo left there, up 12% today. and now to some show and tell, where we tell you a story. shares of uber are moving higher despite missing estimates. still, the company forecasting a strong fourth quarter. here's what the ceo told "squawkbox" about the next step in the company's evolution. >> advertising is going to be the biggest growth area for us, because we have a huge audience, over 130 million audience companying at us on a monthly basis to the platform. this is a high-end audience. they're very engaged with our platform. they're going places, and what

we're seeing in advertising is 650 million now of run-rate revenue, growing very significantly. we're well on our way to a billion dlplus next year. >> let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. the u.s. imposed new sanctions on mexican cartel members and firms over fentanyl trafficking. the biden administration targeted 13 members of the cartel on four mexico based firms that have been accused of bringing drugs into the united states. the sanctions block connections to the u.s. banking system, eliminate their ability to work with americans, and cut off their u.s. assets. nike will sue rivals new balance and sketchers over patent infringement, accusing them of using nike's fly-knit technology. new balance said in a statement that nike doesn't have the exclusive rights to manufacturing methods in use it says for decades.

meantime, the european space agency just unveiled the first photos of euclid, the dark matter hunting telescope. it shows galaxies and ancient stars with stellar nurseries. one picture shows a galaxy, nicknamed the hidden galaxy, because the milky way tends to obscure it from view. space exploration grows and grows. >> no advertising there yet. tyler, thanks. coming up, it's been a volatile year for piedmont lithium. they said there's still a ton of demand, but shares are near their lowest levels since late 2020. we'll check in with the ceo about that, next.

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you are still at a business stage that was more rewarded with lower interest rates. when do you expect more

consistent real earnings growth or positive cash flow? the kinds of things that might calm investors down in a more difficult environment. >> this is a skill driven business. we had a significant advantage, so we grew as fast as be good for as long as we could, and we are at the point where we need to turn the skill into profits. we have cash on the balance sheet today. we have enough to carry us for quite some time. we feel good about our prospects for growth and the growth on the bottom line. >> i think it is worth thinking through the weakness that your core customer could experience.

we have had a bevy of data all day long about some of the financial fragility is they are feeling. does that pose a risk if all of a sudden the fundamentals for that look a lot worse than they have the past couple of years? >> we have been watching for that for quite some time because that is something people have speculated about. but i can tell you if you look at past periods of economic stress petfood is one of the last things people will scrimp on. they will do it on vacations and gifts and starbucks coffee, but not the food that they view to the most precious member of their family. we feel good about our ability to continue to grow the business at a strong rate even if there is a little bit of an economic challenge. we showed recently we grew against all ages. any demographic issues that people have been talking about have my hit us yet. >> maybe one day we will be among your customers. thank you for joining us today.

>> thank you very much. just a few of the artists whose work will be hitting the auction this week in new york. 2022 was a record, but this could be a little different. we have your read on the high- end consumer up next.

before we go we have one more read on the consumer. they may be finally showing on the high end. the full auction season in your kicks off tomorrow. the system is expected to be 1.5 $-2 billion and that would be well below last year's tally of 2.7. overall auction sales were down 24% in the first topic so as to not want to risk a decline in prices so supply is a little tighter. trying to do this be the middle east is likely to be weekend the u.s. is the big open question. the start of this portrait that is expected to sell for at least $120 million. they also have a rare self portrait that is expected at 40-

60 million. this is one of the iconic waterlily paintings estimated to go for about $65 million. if you like wheels more than if you l♪ upbeat music ♪r they wate expensive ferrari ever at auction. a 1962 gto expected to go for over $60 million. if this goes well above expectations maybe we can save the high end is still hanging in there. we will see you on the other side of the break. do not go anywhere. ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ [alarm clock ringing] (♪♪) [van engine] (♪♪)

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