the theme park division. now, disney shares are down 24% since the activist campaign was called off back in february. this quarter, the company is expected to grow revenue 6% and earnings 134%, so, morgan, we're going to talk about all this and more, bob iger, we have an exclusive interview at 4:05 p.m. eastern. >> that's right. tune into this hour tomorrow. julia, thank you. that is going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins now. morgan, indeed, it does. thank you very much. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap today. crude centirumble. is this move a warning sign about a coming global slowdown? we will debate that one. plus, travel confusion. expedia, trip adviser roaring higher while the airlines are in a holding pattern. what's behind this booking bifur ration?

that's a heck of a phrase right there. and later, inside rivian's results. what robinhood's numbers are saying about the retail investor. and disney on deck. you just saw, iger will be on tomorrow. the options action ahead of their earnings. i'm tyler mathieson coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and steve grasso. glad you're here. we're going to get the drop in oil later this hour, but first, a market move we hadn't seen in two years, the nasdaq rising another percent today, bringing its win streak now to eight days in a row. that is the longest since november of 2021. the s&p and dow now each posting seven-day runs of their own. those two indexes now within 5% of their highs for the year. almost erasing that summer swoon. let's check out the moves in the megacaps today. amazon, highest close since september.

microsoft, record, apple, me meta,al fa get, all higher as well. is meanwhile, the equal weighed s&p far underperforming the benchmark again. it is back in negative territory for the year. so, does thisdy verve jens, tim, give you reason to pause? i assume you would be more comforted if all stocks were taking part, not just a few. >> well, we've been debating this over the last couple days. do you want the bred breadth in the patient, do you want to see it outperform the market weighed? owning the market, you've been succe successful. you talked about the nasdaq, it's within 1.5% of the all-time highs, if we look at the qqqs and the nasdaq 100. a relative cycle high to the s&p. this move -- i believe that market leadership coming from the nasdaq 100 and then really that being lead by the semiconductors is what investors should want to see, to take the market higher. but we want to see breadth here,

and we've talked about that underperformance, if you look at the rsp etf. underperforming by 14%. and you had some good news last week for that outperformance, it really hasn't. so, that's probably a negative tell, i'm sure dan's got a view on this. we've talked about this over the years when nasdaq stocks have outperformed. >> 39% on the qqqs so far this year. >> but it's all these ten stocks. if you look at the nasdaq 100, those top ten stocks make up 40% of the weight of it. interesting to me today, i think this is a new closing all-time high for microsoft today, was a little higher in july, intraday, and we were talking about that, you talk about cycle highs, i mean, for the entire bit of enthusiasm that was, like, being demonstrated in the top ten names and the smaller cap names in the summer, the day that microsoft came out with that co-pilot pricing, and they just started charging for it on november 1st, it was an interesting book end. it sold off 15%, the results were better than expected with, i think expectations coming

down. the stock is dragging up a bunch of other names in the space. adobe closed as a new high today. look at me thatta. people don't don't tlove their guidance. i think if you are -- to tim's point about the market cap weight, they're doing all the lifting, again, because i can look at no shortage of sector that act really poorly. >> that's what they're going to continue doing. this was about positioning, it was about rates, it was about issuance. everyone got so negative, so, they had to run everything back, short covering. issuance, less than we had thought the market was going to deliver. r rates. we're closer to cuts than we are to the next rate rising period. all of that is a tailwind. and where does the money go? to the largest cap tstocks. >> what's worked. >> what's worked. people don't own individual

names, they own etfs. those top holders of the big large cap names will continue to buy those dips. so, unfortunately, we're looking for an outperformance of equal weight, i just don't see it ever being longer-lasting than a couple of days. >> karen? i mean, one of the things that was interesting to me, correct me if i'm wrong here -- >> you are never wrong, tyler. >> that's what i tell jojo every evening. let's talk about smaller cap stocks. where are they in this? >> well, they're off the mat -- >> but not. >> right, it's really -- they haven't come remotely close. and the persistence of the underperformance has been so long, that sort of surprising to me. i own a lot of, you know, the magnificent seven, but then i own a lot of stuff that's sort of in that s&p underweight that really -- >> has a play. >> you know, we've talked about things like kellogg's, or, what, kellanova. i hate the name, but -- >> rolls off the tongue.

>> easy, yeah. i don't know where they came up with that, but anyway, i think that there is some value out there, nobody seems so care where value is right now, so, i'm sticking with this sort of barbell. >> you know, it's interesting. i would guess that most people who are in the market in an index fund are buying the market cap weighed one, because those are the most popular ones. >> and the most liquid. >> and you have to buy all the underlying stocks that are -- >> new money going into the market here? i mean, i don't get the sense -- i got the sense this is more about positioning and short covering and people that were uber bearish. and look, there's always money flowing into the market. but i think what's interesting about what we've seen during those periods where the equal -- the market weighed has outperformed, as we said, that's really been the move this year. that's been the move off of the lows last october. what did you see today? software companies, and there was a reason for it. data dog and some other folks, snowflake, had good numbers. you had this dynamic where you

start to see it broaden into software. you start to see it broaden into some of the more high multiple tech. if we get some help from interest rates, i think it ex expands, but it is disappointing for someone that owns a lot of real economy stocks, a lot of industrials and certainly some banks. there's nothing there. and those are bear markets. >> real compeconomy equals cycl. if you think about the data we've had, the jobs data, the manufacturing data, and you think about, okay, fine, rates -- rates were only as 5% on the ten-year for, what, a couple weeks. they're back to where they were a month ago. so, the higher for longer narrative is still in tact, you know? especially if you are a running a business. and one of the through lines that i take away from q-3 earnings was really about q-4 guidance and beyond. and a lack of visibility that companies are going to have in a very volatile macro varenvironm. to me, if you think about 2024, which we all are, what are the estimates for s&p 500 earnings, where are input costs?

it looks like despite the fact that some of the inflationary readings have come down, you know, markets are peaked. that's it. and so, earnings estimates are a bit too high right now for 2024, there probably needs to be a bigger reset for stocks at some point. >> and it's also a point of -- it's a point of reference, too. when you talk about where the ten-year was, it's where it was a couple of weeks ago, but where is it now and it's probably going to be lower in the next couple of weeks/months. if you look at going down that curve, the russell 2,000, 40% is unprofitable companies. the russell 3,000, 60% is unprofitable companies. to tim and dan's point, when you look cyclical and you lookal real economy stocks, if you think the economy is getting worse, those earnings are going to get worse. so, you're not -- you'd rather go back to safety, large cap tech -- >> priced it in. >> or just balance sheets. >> i guess the question you have to ask about the real company is, when i look at ford and gm,

we know what's going on in auto, i look at the staples, i look at real company, that tends to be defensive in times like this. the market already priced in we know they are probably at peak margins and pricing power that was coming out of covid. it's a very interesting time, because there's no -- there's nothing that tells me that it's going to get better on margins, but i want to own that. >> later in the program, we're going to talk about oil. is oil telling you anything right here, going back below 80? >> i think oil, tim said before they already priced in, when you're talking about cyclicals. i think oil priced in the negative of supply chain disruptions, geopolitical issues, we had russia, ukraine, now we have israel and gaza, and a lot of that was front loaded, so, what commodities do, they price in the worst, and then they back off of that. so, i think supply-chain

disruptions will probably overly price in and that's why you saw it back off. all right, let's move to our next guest, top bond strategist warning that the megacap rally may be on borrowed time. he cites demand issues tied to tomorrow's ten-year treasury note auction. ben eamons is a senior portfolio manager at new edge wealth. welcome. talk us through this auction that is coming tomorrow on the ten-years. what you expect to see. going to be a lot of supply in the pipeline. where's demand? >> that's the big question, tyler. we know that china and japan and other foreign investors have been not active in those auctions anymore, wthrough the last two years, and now the banks, too, are not as active anymore, you know, they continue to sell treasuries. so, who is going to step in here to buy it? you know, it probably is us, or private sector, or mutual funds. now, we've been down a year now 55 basis points, so, it's a pretty good move through this

month. it probably was a lot of short covering. there was news out, right before the treasury announced the supply, that, you know, the hedge funds took even more short positions than before, and right as that supply number came out, all the covering has probably happened. so, the setup for tomorrow is not that great, and the demand is unclear. so, i think it's going to be a challenging auction. think i heard steve just say you think rates are going to be lower four, five months from now. do you see it that way or not? >> it could be, i mean, you know, we have an economy that's 5% slowing down in this quarter, and if that continued, rates should adjust to that path of growth down. i don't think, though, that we're going to go all the way back to 3%. for that, you have to see inflation really start to decline. that has not yet been the case. and that's what we know from the fed, too. their hesitance to pull the trigger on rate cuts. we have to see more data. >> there's a lot of supply coming, right? one way or another, there's a

lot of supply coming. we don't know where the demand is, and some of the big players that have been supplying the demand are not going to be there. that would argue that rates could resume a rise upward, right? >> well, so, if you look at the technical breaks, tyler, that's what it's indicating to me. we're sitting at the 50-day moving average, sort of building this forward. we're staying in this really nice uptrend in the ten-year. if you zoom out, you look from 2007 to now and we actually should retrace all the way to 100% if we are going to stick here at this level. if you believe in the technicals, you should see higher in the treasury market, not really resolved, that leads you to that conclusion. only, i think, from, as the last month that we saw recently, it popped over 5%, there were buyers there. i do think if you are getting a bit of an overshoot on rates, there will be new buyers. just at this point, this is not a good setup at 4.5. >> tim? >> well, must be an interesting

time. for the first time in probably 15 years, you are right in the spotlight of investors coming to you, really excited about yield opportunities, and i bet there's as much anxiety that yields are going to go down and they're not going to be able to lock in the juicy yields. i have these conversations with clients all the time. the technical picture says, don't worry about it, you're going to get your spot, and if anything, you do not need to be locking in long-term here and the yield curve actually may be a place to stay a little bit nimble and at the shorter end right now. >> yeah, i would fully agree with that view. the fact is, actually, we have more or less a flat curve, close to fat, and so, why would you take the 30-year risk and just get paid in three, five, seven-year part of the curve for the same return? if anything, there's better opportunities in minis, we'll get there in a minute. you know, the yields are effective. yes, we have clients that are anxious. i don't want to miss this moment, right?

on the other hand, they're anxious about, well, the supply picture is still pretty troubling, we could get higher here, if it does, it's a real buy opportunity. >> let me ask you, for the auction tomorrow, what are you looking for and what would be an outcome that would really move the markets? >> so, i think, karen, one, you look overnight, what's going on in the data. so, we have cpi from china, cpi from germany, so that is interesting to watch, because rates are reacting to that. and if it rallies into the auction, it could be a really difficult setups right? things rally too much, it tends to be a poorly bid auction. if it is, say, poorly bid, i would think you get a pop in rates and a different picture we had the last few days. can't say it's all completely turned, but i find this 50-day moving average holding so strongly the last couple of sessions kind of telling. it means the markets are w waiting. if not, then you see maybe a

move higher. >> dan, and then i want to squeeze one in on mini. >> ben, i have a chart, 25 years, fed funds rate. the last few times we've had aggressive rate hikes, into 2000, it capped out, then it went to 1%. rising up to a.25%, stopped going up in 2006. >> when they went down, they went to zero. in 2017, they started going up, in '18, they went from 2.25% to 0% again. here we are, at 5.5%. tell me why it's a great idea to buy stocks, if you are just looking over the last, see what i'm doing here, karen, the last 24 years, after really aggressive rate hikes, when they start to lower, they lower aggressively. it's elevator up, right, you know what i mean? escalator up, elevator down. that's it. and it's not good for stocks. >> yeah, that's the recession story, really. if actually the fed gets to the point that it's not going to

moderate the rate hike cycle to a hold longer and one step down, but what you're saying would really flip and we start cutting aggressively, we're talking about a 200, 300-basis point cutting in six to nine months, that's a big recession period, i think. doesn't look like it right now, but i think we can look at our central banks in emerging markets. rates are high, restrictive, and if i starts to decline, that's what the fed story is, too. if it continues, we can at least moderate interest rates to an extent, otherwise, they become even more restrictive. i think that's a positive for stock markets, and that may be what the stock market is saying. this is going to be a moderate rate-cutting cycle, which indicates, if anything, a mild downturn or no downturn, as opposed to this slashing down to zero -- >> right, but of course that's the intend. that's where they are right there. they were there in '06, they were there in 2000, i'm sure

they were there in 2018. but that's not how it's worked out in principle. this goes back to what we were debating. no landing, soft landing, hard landing. the idea the stock market right here is pricing a very soft landing. >> very much is, and that's, again, based upon the way -- i guess simply employment and inflation is behaving. we've seen inflation nicely moderating, unemployment goes up, but it's all very gentle. if that starts to chs to changes a totally different game. and then the fed will be back to zero very quick. >> ben, thank you, appreciate your time, we didn't get to the munis question. they are sexy for the first time in a long time. ben, thank you. let's trade this, this whole kit and kad kaaboodle. steve? >> lower rates, that's where the

bulls win. i'm more worried -- i'm not worried about them cutting with a recession, i'm worried about rates getting out of control and popping above five again. >> you see that scenario as a possibility? >> well, i -- to ben's point, if you look at a -- >> five on the ten-year, you're talking about. >> if you look at the retracement, we can probably moderate between 4.75% and 5% again, i don't think rates are going to have a blowoff top here. i think rates are probably going to cascade lower from here. >> anybody want to put a button on it? >> well, i -- >> going once, going twice? >> i'll say, the economy we have right now is not giving the fed any reason to think about aggressive cuts. i agree. the history dan's talking about, at some point, it's going to be too late, we know the lag effects here. i think the reality is that right now, we're in a place where interest rates are probably staying higher for longer for as much related to technical reasons as financing a deficit than we've ever seen in the last 15 years.

>> all right, that will be the final thought here. coming up, though, you have heard that the devil is in the details. but you know who else is? our own karen finer mann. she's digging into the luxury merger between tapestry and capri holdings. she's got some concerns. but first, two ev makers on the move. rivian and lucid both reports results. we'll dig into those in a montwh "ston" returns in two. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr.

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it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. all right, welcome back to "fast money." we've got a double earnings alert for you. rivian slightly higher on a top and bottom line beat, while lucid charging lower after a miss on revenue and revising its production outlook lower. phil lebeau has all the numbers. hey, phil. >> tyler, tale of two ev companies going in different directions right now. in part, you see that with the guidance, we'll talk about both in a bit. by the way, i'm will being to the rivian conference call, it's clear they believe they're in the sweet spot right now in terms of increased production while lowering their costs. let me give you the highlights. better than expected. they lowered the losses to $1.19

a share. revenue slightly better than exp ex expected. they brought loss per vehicle almost $2,000 per vehicle. still losing more than $30,000 per vehicle, losing about $140,000 per vehicle third quarter of last year. they continue to bring that down. and they have announced that rivian and amazon jointly have decided to end their exclusive arrangement with rivian building electric delivery vehicles. they are still going to do it, but they can open this up and pursue business with other commercial entities. now, for the important part. the change in guidance. and there are three important ones here. most important, 54,000 is the new production guidance. was 52,000. the previous guidance was all given at the end of q-2, so, this is an update in just one quarter. the ebitda loss is $4 billion all stuff that we are going to be discussing tomorrow morning on "squawk box."

first on cnbc, we will talk with the founder and ceo of rivian. and we're going to talk about what he's seeing with demand and the demand profile in this market. he just discussed that on the conference call. let's quickly talk about lucid. because it is going in the opposite direction, as the company reported a q-3 loss of -- what did we have here, 28 cents a share. and the revenue coming in weaker than expected. but it's the guidance. that's what's weighing on this stock right now. the company cutting its plan of building 10,000 vehicles this year, it's now planning to build between 8,000 and 8,500 vehicles this year. and they're also going to be, as they do this, trying to conserve their capital. i just got off the phone within the last hour with peter r rollinson, the ceo. he said, we're adjusting to challenging conditions. obviously in the higher end of the ev market, it's tough selling, because there's so many

competitors in there, and lucid has struggled to get as much traction as they would like to get. he said, we need to be prudent to preserve capital. so, we'll be on the lucid call. bottom line is this, tyler. two ev companies here, rivian, clearly seeing that it has traction, continues to grow. lucid, still trying to find the key point here with a lower production and they can lower their losses. >> all right you phil. spirit aerosystems dropping after hours. announced a plan to raise some capital. what do we know? >> raising at least $400 million. i think it's $430 million. 200 million through shares being sold, 200 million off debt being auctioned off into the market. bottom line is this -- they just got $100 million capital influgs from boeing a couple of weeks ago. they are trying to stabilize their production system. this is what the market's looking at and going, you need another $400 million? where is the bottom here? the ceao has his work cut out

trying to convince everyone, we understand the problems when it comes to the fuselages we're building, and we have our arms around it. that's not the message that comes out when you have to raise $400 million. >> spirit the fuselage company? >> yes. >> i mean -- >> it's the old boeing. they spun it off many years ago. >> say that again, i'm sorry. >> it's the old boeing fuselage. it was part of boeing for years, they spun it off in the late '90s, became spirit. they are an independent company, but struggling right now. >> all right, phil, thank you. tim just loves the word fuselage. >> better than playing bob newhart. we got it four times, fuselage. >> take a shot. all right, let's talk about these two ev stocks. what do we think here? >> well, lucid, you can't lose $3 billion too many times, except if your biggest shareholder is, you know, a

sovereign wealth fund and public investment fund and they are willing to pay whatever it takes. >> ford can lose $3 billion whenever they want. so, rivian, it goes tesla, rivian, lucid. lucid's price of the cars are $100,000 plus. so, tesla's been cutting the price of the cars, increasing their share, rivian is the best second choice to tesla, but there's -- it's still tesla's world. everyone else is operating in it. and they haven't monetized the charging network. >> tesla hasn't. >> yes. >> $5 billion of revenue that's untapped, no one else has that kicker. you've seen it become a very volatile stock. if the market goes higher, tesla goes up another 10%. >> amazing number. rivian losing $30,000 per vehicle, down from what, $140,000? >> that is, like, to me, it's a really dumb number. they're going to make 54,000 cars this year, you know? and tesla is supposed to do 1.8 million. so, to me, it really is about, they have $10 billion in cash, they just lowered their cash

loss estimate. >> and they are raising equity in the aftermarket. >> so, to me, the story, it's all in front of rivian. you think about it. and i think the lack of ex exclusivity for the vans is pretty good. to me, this is a call option on an interesting early mover in the ev space, but who knows, you know? they're going to continue to run through kaush. all right, let's take a break here. a lot more "fast" to come, and here is what's coming up next. looking into luxury. karen's digging into the details of a major merger in the luxury retail space. finerman's fine print is next. and speaking of deals, could some energy m&a shake up the oil space? our next guest says some crude coupling could be just what the sector needs. who he says should team up, next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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all right, welcome back to "fast money" everybody. a fashion pfaux pas today. the ftc seeking more information on the luxury megamerger. tapestry agreed to buy capri in august, but karen finerman has been pushing for a conscious uncoupling. >> oh. >> she's got finerman's fine print on the deal. >> how about that? >> how about that, that was a good one from our crack team there. i just think it was sort of a deal that they shouldn't have done. now, the question is, can they get out of it? so, what happened today, the ftc requesting more information, that just makes the deal, one

sort of element of risk that people sort of dismissed, as i would have, because you see very, very, very few or no retail deals that are anti-trust. however, this is, you know, this is an anti-trust mission, and we don't know what will happen, so, it's going to take some time for them to comply, but let's look at tomorrow, or thursday, what happens. capri reports, and tapestry, both report. and my guess, if current history in the retail space is any guide, neither will be good. this could just increase the spread more. now, deal's worth $57 in cash. capri is 48 and change. so, that is an enormous spread. so, the next thing is, you know, this -- to call this merger an anti-competitive is really -- it's kind of ridiculous, yet -- >> where do they overlap? >> women's handbags. but there's tons of women's handbags. i have never seen -- except for

office depot/staples, where the government said no, they can't merge. one is now bankrupt and the other is on the verge. we saw capri, on the deal, i was a lucky shareholder, said good-bye. the downside now, tapestry, look at the -- landed with a thud with shareholders. they didn't love the capri couldn't make it work, how does taptapestry? if this deal doesn't go through, where does capri go? they are still likely to close the deal, because in the merger agreement, it says that tapestry must litigate -- they must do everything they can -- >> to make it go through. >> they must litigate, even if the doj or f ttc sues, they hav to litigate the deal. if it goes on for 18 months,

then they can get out. >> cyou own capri, what were thy thinking at tapestry in the market has said, you were so offsides on this deal, and punished the company while it was a get out of jail free card, with all due respect, to capri. >> i'm take it, i'm not proud. >> what's the rationale? we know what the market has done. the reality is, what were they thinking? >> i don't know. i think -- >> luxury. they wanted jimmy choo, there's a limited amount of luxury brands. karen and i have both been in capri. so, we got that nice get out of jail free, and i'm out of capri now. i bought tapestry on the selloff, i'm still in tapestry. i think the lower it goes, i think, the board will force tapestry to sell jimmy choo or versace -- >> sounds like my wife.

i want jimmy choo, i want versace. chill out, man. coming up, some more merger mu musings. could deal-making in the oil sector give that sector its energy back? paul sanke will join us next to pump into the oil trade and break down how crude can get its groove back. don't go anywhere. we've got more "fast money" in two.

welcome back to "fast money," everybody. stocks continuing their run higher. the s&p and nasdaq clinching their longest winning streaks in nearly two years today. the s&p and dow up seven days in a row. the tech-heavy nasdaq notching an eight-day win streak. some fast movers from today's session. draft kings continuing its run post earnings, up more than 30% since last week alone. shares of uber rising despite an earnings miss. this morning, the company seeing accelerating bookings, trips, and monthly active consumers. uber's stock has now doubled already this year. and some more afterhours action. ebay lower, despite an earnings beat. revenues coming in line with estimates. shares of toast, however, getting burned, down nearly 20%

after an earnings miss. dan, let's talk toast. >> yeah that is a tough one. this was a pull forward, pandemicy sort of name here. low gross margins, path to profitability has the thing that has kept this thing volatile. you give guidance like they did right now, and this is on its way to making new, you know, all-time lows, in a way. so, really tough one. looks kind of cheap, if you are looking at it on a multiple of sales. pushing out the profitability targets, it goes back to what we were talking about at the start of the show here. if you are in this environment, you don't have that path and you have a lot of volatility, just not a good place to be. so, this is disappointing. >> let's talk draft kings, tim. >> it's been an avalanche of upgrades from the street, after market share gaines, profitability for the first time effectively and for an addressable market that getting more exciting by the day, so, as somebody that was long the stock, got called away, thought i'd buy it lower, you know, it's

up 40% in eight days. i'm -- i'm not going to chase it, because yi can't, but i wan to own it. all righty. meantime, crude oil, lowest close since july, but our next guest says a potential wave of m&a could have the market falling in love with big oil all over again. paul sankey joajoins us now on "fast" line. what do you see in oil now? >> obviously, i think the backdrop here is the initial hamas attacks on israel came right after saudi was talking about some sort of agreement with the biden administration regarding more oil in exchange for diplomatic relations with israel. so, the backdrop was mitigation of middle east risk, which may have triggered the hamas attacks. and the hezbollah comments on friday really confirm that more or less this is a localized

event, a major one, but localized. at the same time, iran is selling all its oil to china, so, we don't see iranian outage, which is the really big risk of all this. so, risk off it is, and that leads us into, combined with very warm weather forecasts and some weak chinese export data, and high russian exports, a lot of things negative, we're focusing on m&a, as you mentioned. >> what's the tradie ing range the commodity over the next, say, 60 days? >> at the moment, the weather forecast is hot for the u.s., which is the first thing, and, you know, we're concerned about going into winter at this time of year and it's looking very warm for the next 6 to 10, 12 days. that's a bit of a problem. we do have a floor on oil, because of the spr, the strategic petroleum reserve rebuild that kicks in at $79 wti so, that will now provide a little bit of support here. so, we don't see oil going below $70 before winter.

but the situation in the middle east is a lot of heat that really didn't effect oil markets when it came down to it. we had a minor outage that effects european markets, but european gas markets right now, very, very well supplied. >> so, we've already seen a couple of deals in oil in the past three, four weeks. who will be the next buyers? who will be the next sellers? >> well, the medium-ranked and below need to scale up to get bigger to improve their multiples. and that's a reversal from what we were saying the last five years, that the company should shrink to grow, should cut their cap x and increase their returns and therefore increase returns to shareholders. in the case now, as we see exxon buying pioneer, chevron buying hess, what we're seeing is finally the big oils are getting the highest multiples, and that's a new era for the space, so, we think we'll see a lot more deals, people are talking

marathon oil, people are talking the potential for konno coe phillips to do more with a private equity players. there are things out there in the middle ranks that would really transform companies. in the back end, we expect to see consolidation, as well. there's quite a long list. >> quite a long list that could be very active. paul, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thanks a lot. >> all right, let's trade this. how do we wade into this? >> well, i think, if you're really talking about dipping a toe in, if we're going to continue this metaphor, this is a stock that's going down to $44. some of this is the hess deal, some in underlying crude. this is a company, and paul will say, oat the present value of their future flows, and their flows include current assets. they just bought the choicest asset in the world, with the guyana project that hess own us. so, i think this is a case where

a company that are growing their dividend has exposure to the best oil reserve and the best project out there is a really interesting opportunity. i get the correlation between the underlying, but this is the point. these companies are run a little bit differently and they are highly, highly cash flow generative and i think those two companies, exxon and chevron, look very interesting here. >> you got a final thought here, quick? >> yeah, so, i think the larger degree of names have probably seen their best days as far as stock price. their stock place, to me, has peaked out. and i think you're going to see the commodity range bound, to your point, before 80, 95 is probably the range bound. the sweet spot for m&a is in the 80s. a lot of players are going to try to consolidate, but the large names, if you look at the charts, if they were the buyer or the acquiree, both charts are down. quick break now, and coming up, should you cruise into the travel stocks or are these names about to hit some turbulence? find out what names our traders are booking into their

portfolios ahead. but first, an earnings alert on robinhood shares we. we will dive into that and next. those trades and more whenfast ne "moy" returns, quicker than nfl time-out.

welcome back to "fast money." robinhood out with results. shares at afterhours lows. kate rooney has the details. hi, kate. >> hi, tyler. robinhood used to be the poster child for active investing. now it is leaning on higher rates amid slower training activity. a miss on revenue and a drop in monthly active users. earnings back in the red after a legal filing. surprise profit earlier this year. net interest income with a bright spot. almost doubling from a year ago. on the call, rob bibhood executives just saying q-4 interest revenue is expected to drop by about $20 million, that's in the current quarter. retail trading was robinhood's bread and butter. that's fizzled. options really made up the bulk of that, about 70%, in equities and crypto trading slowing. crypto down 55%.

the cfo telling me that interest income is helping to offset slower trading. he said the business is naturally hedged against changes in interest rates. partially blamed slower trading activity. executives on the call are describing robin hood a lot more like a bank. they are highlighting retimremet accounts. tyler, back to you. stock down. >> tim, what do you think? >> i think it's a story where there's been stabilization. a lot of this has been, what's their core audience, what is part of this offering? you know, i get that it was bombed out. i just think that there's still going to be some challenges. i think there's going to be challenges for what continues to allow the business to differentiate itself. coming up, disney earnings on deck. will it be a magical quarter, or is maless feint lurking. >> maleficent.

>> is that what i think? >> i think it was angelina jolie. >> or malefficient. >> this is a unefficient anchor in many ways. what is it? >> maleficent. >> all right. >> we'll be -- >> falafel.

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home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "fast money." travel stocks having a top notch tuesday. trip adviser , expedia, and booking holdings zooming higher. cruise lines seeing some green. norwegian, royal caribbean, carnival, all sailing higher, as well. and don't forget the hotels. hyatt, marriott, hilton, notably higher. dan, you pointed this out earlier. >> going into earnings season, we were talking about the weakness in airlines. i was waiting for airbnb to hear what they had to say. they didn't have trade c commentary about trends. interesting to see platform companies that are all putting up big numbers and saying good things going into the year. i find it surprising, and that's what i enjoy about earnings season. taking builts and pieces out of

this thing and trying to jex t juxtapose things. >> yeah, expedia, 15% in a day -- >> 8% today. >> it's really underperformed bookings. that's a trade you stay in. if you look at these names, there have been spurts, but staying invested in these names over time i think has been paying off. expedia has lagged the droup and i think you stay there. >> and now it has made a little progress there. all right, meanwhile, a huge slate of earnings still to come this week, with disney taking center stage. options traders are feeling bullish, as the magic kingdom's results come in. mike khouw joins us now with the action from the pits. hi, mike. >> hi there. so, disney's implying a move of about 6% right now after they report earnings, and we did see above average call volume, calls outpacing puts by 1.6 to 1 today. a lot of that activity was focused in the december 90 calls and that was the result of a large purchase of 2,500 december

90/95 call spreads. the buyer is betting that disney could rise between 7.5% and 12. 5% by december expiration, this is just over five weeks ago. >> all right, thank you, mike. maleficent. i'm going to keep working that word. >> it won't come up again for you. >> i won't come up for months. >> he just brought it back up again. >> why don't you start off by saying fuselage. >> the problem with disney, there's so much going on, so much noise, and there's hulu, what are they going to do with that, what are they going to do with parks, what are they going to go with espn? but when you think about it, everyone only cares about streaming. so, how are they going to turn that ship around with streaming? this is right around the pandemic lows, i don't think it should be trading there, but i think this is a show me, prove me. at this point, you hold off on buying disney. >> new cfe o coming in. >> yeah. i wonder how this potential proxy fight, which seems likely

to take place, in the past, i think that nelson has done a good job in general on boards that he joins. i kind of think disney should let him on and avoid the fight. they have other things to worry about. >> all right, don't miss an exclusive interview with bob iger tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. that is here on cnbc. bob iger tomorrow at 4:00. up next, we've got some final trades.

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we have a minute, time for the final trades. tim? >> i'm a buyer of the word maleficent. >> long? >> chevron. i think, i am a buyer of the oil space. the correlation to the underlying oil price to me is irrelevant right now. >> karen, who nknew ma life sen. >> yeah. nvidia, really nice run. time to sell some upside calls against stock. >> the never maleficent dan nathan. >> robin hood down 10%, probably rallies back a little bit. >> all right. and you, sir?

>> karen for a rated the tapestry story and makes me think i should be a buyer of this name. this is deep end of the poom. know your risk tolerance. >> okay. you had the other side of that. >> when they announced the deal, steve and i both said, good-bye my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise i will help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i am cramer, welcome to mad money. i'm trying to make you some money. call me. tech companies call it za