seminar or course auto to be required for lawmakers in congress. >> a lot of them are bringing in expert, but beyer is going the extra mile going to class. >> or for yours truly. i think he's the owner of a bunch of volvo dealerships. >> is he your congressman? >> he would not be. thanks for watching everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks so much. i'm scott wapner here at post 9 here at the new york stock exchange. in just a bit we will be joined by jan hatzius who will reveal his outlook for 2024 here on our set today, and he will tell us where he thinks stocks will rate in the year ahead. in the meantime this make or break hour will begin with a reluctant bear no more. a top cio changing his tune on stocks and he'll tell us why in just a moment. here's your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation and they're trying to extend their winning streak in two years and you can see we have a lot of

work to do, crude falling further today, take a look. there's the xle and there's wti below 76 and a mixed picture with the mega-caps and there you see most green and we do have amazon modestly in the red and the apple run continuing today. as for yields mostly lower today as well and we'll show you the treasury curve there and you have the 10-year at 4.52. the road ahead for stocks and if it is time to get more offensive in the market. let's ask sebastian paige at post 9 and you are the reluctant bear no more. i knew this was going to happen, i just didn't know when. why did it happen now? >> scott, we bought stocks and we closed our underweight. it wasn't a lot underweight and it was a less than 1%. on october 27th when the s&p went below 100 down 10% which

was down by one standard deviation i told you i'm waiting for a pullback for a better price, and these are large portfolios. we have 3 billion worth of stock and we were done by monday, average execution price 4135 and we are now neutral, fully neutral between stocks and bonds. we have some interesting positioning under the hood still, however. >> so you bought $3 yoil worth of stocks. can you give us the idea the types of stocks you did buy? >> so for us, we went diversified. we are neutral between value and growth. we are overweight small and midcaps and that's interesting because -- >> yes, it is interesting. >> the s&p equal weight side flat to down a percent year to date. your magnificent 7 is up 92% so we think there's an opportunity to get more diversified in stocks over the next six to 12 months and that was part of the positioning we went into. >> if you're overweight small and mid, you must be in the soft

landing camp then? >> i think soft landing is the base case. you have to balance two things right now, and it's actually, we're going back and forth with the narratives, the narratives changed last week and the week before it was different and it's like ping-pong, but it comes down to the fact that growth has been surprising on the upside significantly which you and i have talked about versus the fact that there are long and variable lags to a higher cost of borrowing and that is something to worry about. >> the narrative may have changed a little bit, but the risks have not, really. you still have the risk of higher for longer, some would say inflation is sticky and it will take a while for it to take that next major leg down, to firmly put the fed on the sidelines and some would suggest valuations are still too risk and how do you address the risks that you still do see?

>> i worry about three main risks, rates and definitely there's still upside risk for rates and i agree with you, scott, inflation. maybe the base case is that we continue to normalize and oil prices are down and the market is sort of calming and the risk is to the upside of inflation and the third, you mentioned it is valuations. you know, overall, the market is reasonably valued, but compared to bonds, stocks are more expensive than they were before this whole, you know, the sell-off of 2022 and what not. so you know, the equity risk premium is the most compressed it's been in 20 years. you don't use the equity risk premium to allocate tactically, but it is still one of the top three risks, cash, yields are higher than earnings yield on stocks. >> so i think this is important. of the risks that you see, the three main ones that you listed,

you don't have geopolitical risk on the list. i bring it up because we have david einhorn's investor letter a short time ago. here it is. the most recent one and there are a number of highlights in it, in which he says, by the way, they're up almost 28% net of fees for the first nine months. they're having a great year, and they've had a diversified group of winners outside of the mega-caps which is interesting, proving prowess at being a stock picker in this market if you don't want to own the mega-cap seven, and here's what he goes on to say and i'm quoting, we are affecting a buyer's strike and did not establish any materiel long positions during the quarter. it is a tricky time and we remain concerned about the direction of the market which bringses us to geoapproximately ticks. investors have been conditioned to ignore geopolitical risk. these days geopolitical risk presents itself as a overnight sell-off creating an immediate

buying opportunity. are you ignoring some of the geopolitical risks that have mr. iron einhorn worried? >> the uncertainty about the macro data i agree completely and that's why we're comfortable at neutral between stocks and bonds. geopolitical risk doesn't always matter to markets until it really does, and to me the channel here is an extension of the conflict in the middle east which would eventually impact oil prices even if demand is coming down, a real supply shock and that spur inflation and that keeps the fed in play and on and on and on, and you've heard the bearish scenario quite a bit and that is part of it. >> i feel like einhorn is speaking directly to you. the complacent view is that geopolitics might be true except for the times that it isn't. we suggest it is one of those times. yes, it's true, but we could be

in one of those moments where we should pay more attention to it than we otherwise might because historically we don't. >> now is not the time to be overweight stocks by 10%, 20%, but now is not the time to panic and go all of the way to cash either and i think that's important because yes, einhorn is making a great point. there are always reasons to be worried, scott and you often push back on the bears and those that tend to worry and there are always reasons to be worried. in the long run stocks pay off and if you're investing for retirement and you want to have some mono in the markets. >> are we finally breaking the cash is king, cash is a better alternative narrative or even environment? stronger than a narrative because we have been in an environment where you're getting so much for your cash people thought it was a better risk reward to be there than in equaties. is that dynamic changing as rates start to come down? >> not yet. if you look at how we're positioned in fixed income we

have an overweight cash and overweight credit and i call it the bar bell and i'm worried about volatility and rates coming back up from here, but there are $6 trillion in money market funds right now. that is $2 trillion more than before the pandemic, and that is the big question, scott. will it move into markets like us when markets really pulled back all of the way down 10%, we bought. i don't think that's fully happened yet. >> because there are still concerns about the economy. >> right. which leads me back in notting to be back small and mid-cap stocks in what is an undoubtedly uncertain economic environment and i'm trying to mesh those things together. the valuation between small and mid is basically pricing a very hard landing and we started the conversation saying that soft landing is probably the base case. so it's where the expectations

are versus what we can get. we started q3 with.5% expected gdp growths and we printed 4.9% gdp growth. >> sure, but how can somebody who has been as cautious on the markets for as long as you've been now it's the base case case of soft landing because if you're going to be so negative for so long on stocks, then i know you'll sigh we're modestly negative and nevertheless you had to prepare for the idea of a r session and now it seems you've changed. >> yes. look, the scenario is not all rosy and there are risks for markets including the risk of valuations, but incrementally we have gotten more comfortable owning stocks. we bought more stocks when they pulled back. it's -- we're not daytraders. >> of course. we look six, 18 month ahead, we're asset allocators and we can get pretty aggressive with execution and when we saw, you

know, october 27th, the opportunity to buy stocks we did and now we're at neutral. it's not an exciting position, but it goes back to stay invested, stay diversified. >> let's bring in victoria fernandez. welcome back. what have you made of sebastien who has been a reluctant bear, self-described and now he says you know what? i bought $3 billion worth of stocks? >> yeah, well, look, i'm in the camp of being a reluctant bear, as well, so i can sympathize with that, but there are still a lot of elements out there that tell us we need to be concerned about what's going on. it doesn't mean we're not going to be in the market, and it doesn't mean we're not in there trying to find stocks that have good value, strong balance sheets and all of those things that we always look for, but we're not so sure that when we look at the broader picture, we're not sure that the fed is done raising rates and we could

see another hike in the beginning of next year and i don't know, like has for the last year and a half and we've seen the willvolatility in the yields and the equity market, so for us, we're actually buying bonds when we see yields go higher and we're trimming our equities when equities have gone higher. we think you have to be nimble and i agree with sebastien and we want to have tactical moves in our portfolio and for us that means taking advantage of some of these short-term moves. could the equity market end higher at the end of the year? it could. you've got good seasonality and the santa claus rally that usually comes, but i think the slowing of the economy, the slowing of the consumer, what we think will be margin pressure and lower earnings for the fourth quarter sets us up for a pullback in the beginning of the year. >> see, the hard part of of this

is that the bears, victoria, self-described yourself as a reluctant bear in that camp have been paralyzed because they've missed the move in the market. they still see what are the perceived risks on the horizon, and are still afraid to get more invested into equities. when are you going to be sure that the fed is done? what are you going to be sure that the consumer is okay. by those moments the market's already going to move so significantly beyond you, and then you're going to get more bullish on stocks? >> i don't think you have to wait until you're 100% sure, but i think we need to see trends being a little bit better than where they are. the rally we've seen over the last week. i mean, is it a bull market rally? i don't know, but i want a little more data before, ask inflation continue to come down

like and we get pce at the end of the month and we're not saying be out of the market. if we've been in cash then yeah, you've really gotten hit, but we haven't been and we've been fully invested and trying to position ourselves in certain segments of the market and coupling that with investments in the bond market and doing some alternative investments with covered calls and absolute return strategies, you have to be more creative in that market in order to have that return. you don't want to miss out completely and you do want the buffer built in, but there's no certain time when we go, great. that's it. when we are 100% equity and growth stocks ready to go. i think you have to be smart and nimble about that and do it in phases. >> i hear the same argument, sebastian from people negative in the market and the rally not withstanding they're still negative in the market.

you pick up a recent note from mike wilson at morgan stanley. this looks like a bear market rally to me. we've been hearing that same sort of thing and the bears tell the same story. at what point does the story play out? i'm not suggesting that the bears are wrong, but the market keeps going up for the most part. when are they wrong? >> you're seeing manufacturing pmi go up for three month nass a r row. you could be seeing a bottom and you're seeing construction for manufacturing at twice the levels of 2019. scott, if you want me to talk about when we would add to stocks go overweight from being fully invested to diversified. >> yes. >> i would like to see capitalization in the market, and i would like to see the vix at 30 and a panic and that would be a great opportunity to actually overweight stock and the fundamentals -- >> what's going to cause that capitulation moment for you?

>> well, that's the key question. is it an issue with earnings and fundamentals or the prior discussion with the geopolitical or just a turn in sentiment linked to the fed because whether we want it or not the market really pays attention to the fed so take a little spike in inflation, a little hawkish talk from the fed and maybe a couple of more hikes and then you start to bite with the rate hikes at some point, the long and variable lags and the market could panic and then i'll be sitting here with you most likely saying we're buying because we like to lean against the wind. >> you'd be a reluctant bigger buyer. maybe i'll be a convinced bull. >> a convinced bull. i'll tell you something right now, when you turn convinced bull you better come here and tell me that after being a reluctant bear as long as you were. deal? >> deal. >> you got it. victoria, last question to you. disney in overtime.

you own the stock. what are your thoughts? >> yeah, you know, we own it in our index strategies. woo we're not owning it in the more concentrated portfolios and obviously subscriber growth, everyone is watch. ad revenues will be very important and we saw that with earn w warner brothers and the key is the restructuring that's going on. selling abc and partnering with espn and espn bet and hulu and if they don't go exactly as planned then you will see more volatility in the stock and we would wait a little bit longer and let some of those uncertainties pass even if we miss a little bit of the upside and then start adding to your position at that point. >> we shall see. it's going to be an interesting one, that's for sure. victoria, thank you so much. sebastien, it's good to see you if person and i always enjoy our conversation. speaking of disney, do not miss

julia boorstin's exclusive interview with bob iger, that is in overtime just after the results come out. we can't wait for that. our question of the day, are disney's share ahead tonight? we have the results coming up later on in the hour, and in the meantime, we'll check up on top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina? >> thanks, scott. let's talk about company toast because they're pretty moech m much toast. this is sending shares down over 12%, and almost 13% and gross payment volume came in fractionally below estimates. shares of robinhood down big after the trading platform missed estimates in the third quarter and it is down 14% and the company reported fewer monthly active users and the drop in trading volume from the same period last year and the company is expanding its earnings release and they'll be soon launching a brokerage in the eu customers.

>> shafrngs thanks so much, we're just getting started here on "closing bell." up next, generating returns by investing in emergency's service members and that is the first of its kind from the etf academy securities and we'll speak with ceo chance mims and phil mcconkey. you are watching "the closing bell" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ ♪

in a crisis caused by a terrorist massacre. warning civilians to clear out, while hamas forces them back. allowing in food and water, which hamas steals.

it's a very special ringing of the closing bell at the new york stock exchange today. academy securities doing the honors ahead of veterans day,

the observance, of course, later this week. academy the only disabled veteran-owned and operated investment bank founded in 2009. chance mims is the founder and ceo, a former naval officer and along with the firm's president phil mcconkey and played for the new york giants super bowl winning team in 1987. great to see you guys. >> great to us have. >> great to have you here and congrats on the closing bell today and it goes without saying thank you both for your service to this country. how, chance, did academy start? >> academy started with a simple mission to hire military veterans right after the financial crisis of 2008 and taking a veteran and putting him alongside a wall street veteran was a smart mission to be on because military veterans translate over very well to financial services, but it had to have value.

we've become the best in the world and made of 18 admirals and generals and we tied together from a geostrategic risk standpoint and how it affects the market. >> you offer a full range of financial services, as well. >> a full-service broker dealer and we launched academy asset management and we launched the etf and vets and something near and dear to all of our hearts and it will have a big impact on military veterans. >> tell us about the etf. here's the hat to give you guys, and you threw them out to the crowd here. >> first of all, getting into asset management was an issue for us and we did the broker/dealer side and we have some of our corporate clients that want to do more for us as we help veterans because we're helping them navigate as chance said the geostrategic risk landscape. we added value and we started in sma and we had some of the clients say look, sma is great and maybe an etf that helps veterans invest in military veterans and also active duty

for home mortgages and sometimes in some areas like the new york metropolitan area, san diego, it's expensive for veterans to get loans. this kind of helps lower the borrowing costs for those military veterans and it's a jenny mae-backed security. >> it will primarily invest in loans to service members, veterans, their survivors. and 80% chance that they'll consist in loans. we talk about where mortgage rates are and how hard it is for everybody. >> this is personal to us. not too long ago i was stationed in san diego on a guided missile destroyer buying my first home, and it was tough. the va enabled me to buy a home. by the way that equity in my home got rolled into a company. i was able to take that and start a company, and so we're also investing in sb alones to

access to capital is such an important bank and we need to have that access in order to build our businesses and this etf is historic and it's never been done before and it's personal to our group and we've been fortunate to have some corporate investors like virtu financial, state farm and other corporations that have invested in this etf. >> you've had an incredible career, phil. from football, serving your country, back to football and now to finance. how did this all happen? >> you know what? growing up as a skinny kid from the west side of buffalo, i just had big dreams and i remember hearing something a long time ago that stuck with me, i didn't come this far just to come this far. in life, you set goals for yourself and you have dreams and you achieve them and you look beyond that to do more, but this is as fulfilling as anything i've ever done in my life. we've got teammates, transitioned military veterans. the only war i was in was a cold war.

some of our teammates they fought in real wars and they suffered a lot and they gave a lot and for us to help them get a leg up in financial services to make that transition, to have an opportunity with us on wall street that they would aren't normally have and that's a testament to our customers. our corporate customers that trusted in us. >> you know, i know people on the floor and viewers in this area, the photo of you catching the touchdown in the super bowl is certainly one of the most iconic in the history of the super bowl. did you always have aspirations for finance even when you were playing? >> no, i didn't. at that point i was just trying to hang on as a 165-pound old guy in the nfl trying to do everything i could to last, and then i think when i got done, living in the new york metropolitan area, in fact, at one point i think i was the only new york jet or new york giant that lived in manhattan, if you can believe it, but financial services are all around. i had access and knew a lot of people so it was natural for me. i got involved in the trading aspect of it and when i moved

out to san diego i had the great fortune to meet chance who was just starting academy securities. it's been so much fun to build a business, and serve our customers and give them something they're not getting anywhere else and watch these young heroes develop and have careers they might not otherwise have. >> we think about our veterans all of the time and we take one day out of the year to formally celebrate them, but chance, what does veterans day means to you? i don't think it ever gets old or tired or anything hearing from actual veterans about what this day means to you? >> it's honoring veterans that have served. people that have answered the call. we have an all-volunteer force. to have men and women that have voluntarily gone in to serve their country to potentially give their life for their country, it's something we always have to do. we always have to take care of our veterans. we always have to honor our veterans and it's an absolute honor to be a veteran because we have this amazing country.

>> you have to see some of these young kids that have volunteered to serve. my daughter's a 2 rndnd class ae naval academy. you spend any time around them it gives us great hope as a country because of the enthusiasm and the patriotism of our young people and there's a lot of them. so very hopeful on that front. >> your insights and expertise on these issues matter, and they mean so much to people. i just want to ask you a quick question before i let you go. we have one of the most well-known hedge fund managers in new york write a letter to his investors and he's having a great year and he talks about the risks and he talks about geopolitics being front and center. do you think we're taking geopolitical risks today given some of the things around the world, given russia, ukraine, do you think we're taking it seriously enough as it relates to markets? >> i think we are and we have

to. that's what the customers demand from us and that's why they engage us with the enrals and admirals who understand what's going on that can help them interpret what's going on as they're making decisions. if you're sitting in a boardroom you're getting ready to issue $10, $12 billion in debt and something sparks up in the middle east like is going on right now or the straits of hormuz they're coming to us to understand that because they want to know whether they go through with that transaction. >> we've been doing this for ten years. for ten years we've been advising clients on the geostrategic risk and it affects all capital market participants. >> they told me you guy his to be out of here by 3:30 and it's 3:29:15 and you'll be on the balcony and everyone will see you up there. thank you very much. >> we appreciate you. thank you, scott. >> thank you for being on the program. >> phil mcconkey. >> and jan hatzius is back with

us and he dropped the 2024 outlook has the street talking and we'll tell you what he sees happening for the economy, the markets, the rates, the fed and pretty much might come up with other thing, too when "closing bell" returns.

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welcome back. just a few weeks away from 2024. hard to believe that. he says the hard part is over. joining me now post 9 goldman sachs' chief economist jan hatzius. i read your outlook and you sound pretty, dare i say optimistic? >> i am pretty optimistic in part because we have seen such strong signs that we can bring down inflation to an acceptable level without really hurting the economy? i mean, 2023 has been sort of a proof of concept of that. we've seen very substantial

disinflation across not just the u.s. and the developed economies, but a much broader group of countries that saw an unwanted and large acceleration in inflation to an average of about 6% in 2022. it's back to 3%. there's still some work to do, but we're on a very good path. >> the, you know, you use interesting words in your outlook. you see tailwinds to global growth. if others are worried about where the economy will be in '24. you use words like tailwinds. what are the tailwinds that you see? the most important are tailwinds in real, disposable household income growth and that is really driven by inflation coming down very substantially. wage growth also coming down, but coming down more slowly so real wages are growing and employment is still growing and that is helping consumers. i would say that's number one.

the other one that i think is important, the other question whether monetary policy will have a large, lagged negative impact on growth we think the biggest negative impact is behind us. >> interesting. so the labor market never falls apart. it slows which last month was a positive read and it was one of the things that the bulls needed to see. so we continue on this steady, but not stumbling path. >> that's right. the labor market held up well in 2023 and you take the average unemployment rate globally and it's going sideways at a very low level, and i would expect more of the same in 2024. >> okay. what i see here, too, in terms of returns and i'm quoting now from your outlook. we expect returns in rates, credit, equities and commodities to exceed cash in 2024 and that's your baseline forecast. explain. >> in some cases only by a little bit for rates at the long

end and the short end. we don't expect big differences, but we do expect a pickup in returns and credit. we expect a somewhat bigger pickup in equities, and then we're looking at commodity prices to recover and to actually produce pretty strong returns in 2024. >> it also sounds, i suppose if you have this belief that the fed returns to being our friend, so to speak rather than our foe. not only are they done hiking, but if necessary, they'll cut and if necessary, they'll cut more than, you know we might otherwise think. >> yeah. our baseline expectation is the fed does nothing for the next year. >> oh, nothing? so you don't have any cuts? >> we don't have any cuts in the baseline forecast because we have a pretty constructive forecast on rules. >> but you also are constructive on inflation coming down back towards 2%. would not they cut even if

inflation comes down? >> we have inflation above 2% and that's consistent with the cut towards the end of next year. however, if things were to be weaker in 2024, if we saw an unanticipated, you know, speed bump or maybe pothole, they could cut in response to weaker numbers because inflation is now in a place that would allow them to cut. >> we've spent a good portion of the program today talking geopolitics whether it's the david einhorn letter that i cited at the very top. we had our two veterans on. you don't list geopolitics here as a principal risk. why? >> we do list it as one of the risks. of course, if we had a significant escalation in the middle east and a really large energy price shock, for example, that would be a downside risk to the global economy. there's no question, but our

baseline would have it more -- at more of a nine kind of development, and i would say so far we haven't seen that broad escalation. >> sure. if you look at energy prices right now they're in a place that i think is consistent with continued growth. >> before i let you go. china, a sputtering recovery is fair to say. how much does that pickup hinge on your baseline forecast? >> so we do have slightly better numbers over the next few months and the reason is that the policymakers are stimulating. financial conditions are easing, and i think that will give us continued growth at 4.8% for next year above the consensus and the downward trend in china, i don't think is going to change, and we're seeing at a

structural issue that has legs. >> jan hatzius. kristina partsinevelos. >> i'll have another examel of the resilience and whether fintech can slow consumer spending and all of those details next.

(adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪

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we have a little more than 15 minutes to go and let's go to kristina partsinevelos. >> let's start with roblox after the company beat estimates and it reported daily active users and engagement users were up among teenagers in western europe and asia. >> buy now and pay later company affirm is reporting after the bell today. how will they succeed in a weaker economy where spending slows down? affirm will be able to hopefully shed some light on discretionary spending trends and more details on the buy now, pay later partnership with amazon and the service if it's gaining traction as well and you can see shares are falling after the close and almost down 2%. >> kristina, thank you and we'll see you in the market zone and last chance to weigh in on our question of the day and we asked disney shares to buy ahead of

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okay. the results of our question of the day, we asked for disney shares a buy ahead of earnings tonight and the majority of you said nope. two-thirds. we shall see what that company delivers in just a little bit. up next we break down the key numbers to watch when disney results hit in overtime and whether the report could spark another proxy fight from nelson peltz. that and much more when we take you inside "the market zone."

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and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ we are now in the closing bell market zone. cnbc markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the trade, plus we have our sights set on two earnings reports out in o.t. kristina partsinevelos with what to look for in arms holding and julia boorstin with disney. mike santoli, the s&p is trying to make a move back to 4400 and the futures above it as we speak. >> third straight day where you just get enough offense out of a few names to get the index continuing this positive streak. if it closes here this afternoon it's eli lilly getting a little

bit of positive news, 4% up. by the way, lilly is a top, and it's amazing how big it is relative to what it used to be. >> yep. >> the rest of the market is trying to regroup and digest another day of negative breadth which is okay, and i guess if you were bullish you wouldn't necessarily want to see regional banks down 4% week to date as they are and it's coming off of a full squeeze higher next week and you take the good and the bad, in general, it is much more about just holding serve until there's another catalyst out there, and that's been -- that has absolutely been the case that the market is just doing enough in migrating toward the strength and the struggling parts of the market all year continue to be a little bit suspect in term of the source of upside, but make it work otherwise. >> the half empty view and the russell is down another 1 1/3 percent today. here come the mega-caps, and apple pushing 183.

that's a significant move and tesla and nvidia is back and a lot of the names have had a pretty strong move. >> microsoft, all-time high and nvidia is only one of the big seven that is truly covering new ground in terms of new highs versus a couple of weeks ago and it's continued to carry more than its weight even in terms of the relative upside and we also have the rest of the assetmarks cooperating with this idea of disinflationary, slower, but still positive growth and oil prices. we talked about it earlier and going down this way are probably initially a positive. disinflationary and refreshing buying power among consumers before they send a disorderly message. >> let's save some money at the gas pump and maybe it will be spent on holiday shopping. who knows? kristina partsinevelos, what do we expect? >> arm is expected to post an

earnings report and higher price points for royalties. recall that arm's business model is different from other chipmakers since it provides the blueprint to make chips and charges royalties for that blueprint. since december it's up about -- we can see arm is up 6% and it's lower than other electronic design automation companies like synopsis and cadence design systems and those are the best comparison, but what we do see from arm is somewhat missing the ai euphoria boat, over 40% of its revenues come from mobile, and 24% come directly from china which operates on black box under arm china and some are worried about arm's architectural and blueprint is under threat from the open source model of risk 5. softbank owns 90% of arm and what they do will affect the stock and despite the investment risk analysts and believes it's coming in just below $3 billion and it will focus on edge

computing and ai on smartphones and pcs and something qualcomm and intel pushed on their earnings calls and arm is over the first to update its architecture and it's updating its architecture for a decade and that's to provide better con pu p computing for ai systems and they're two of the analysts who think there will be a major upgrade cycle for arm with the new architecture. >> all right. good stuff and covering a lot for us and we do appreciate that, we'll see you in overtime, kristina partsinevelos. all right, julia, what should we expect when disney reports in just a matter of minutes. >> most analysts are bullish on the stock. more than three-quarters. this quarter the company is expected to grow its revenue by 6% and earnings by 134% and this is the first time that disney will report under its new structure which breaks out sports giving now insight into

espn. we are looking for an update on streaming and whether the division is still on track for profitability a year from now and for insight into the ad market, the future of the linear tv business is a question after disney's battle with charter and at the theme marks we'll see if consumer spending is holding up, plus there's the actors strike that is now threatening, and starting to threaten the summer box office. i will be sitting down with disney ceo bob iger to talk results and that's coming up right after they report which is right after the bell. >> we're excited about that, thank you very much. julia boorstin just ahead of the earnings and of course, that exclusive interview. >> you look at warner brothers and discovery today and paramount. >> it's not looking good and it's interesting because disney has this sort of makeup where you can decide how much of the company is essentially a netflix and how much of it is a wbd and a paramount. obviously, they have exposure to the linear networks and the

advertising likewher wbd and paramount and in terms of scale once it buys hulu and you have the brand franchises that you can value as much as you want in the theme park business. it will still have, i don't know, $6 billion in gain in revenue in this fiscal year versus the last one and it's not the same where the pure media companies are at the mercy of the macro and their own balance sheets and don't have as many options. we'll see what they convey, what iger conveys in terms of the degree of urgency to do something strategic and how they might be re-thinking spending on content and the volume of it for the streaming platforms and all of the rest of it. >> do you want to discuss what you think is the significance of 4400 as we sort of work our way towards that pretty important level? >> yes. for the cash index to get above 4400 is cracking through what would seem like the obvious ceiling if that were just a bear

market rally because it would mean it broke this downtrend that's been in place for a little while since the highs in july and it would get up into that zone that we haven't spent a lot of time in since the ultimate peak of the market and maybe it's holding back some people from really jumping on the bandwagon from last week's valley, and even if you think there should be an upside bias, we got oversold and we should be able to make something out of that. it's hard to see how we get up, up and away to really break above toward the old highs at 4400 and just because presumably, if we got up to 4500, 4600 like we were in the summer and full valuations again and are earnings estimates going to be able to hold? >> it's a narrow market. >> it hasn't proven that it's broken out of that mode, and so i think if you don't really feel like the train's going to leave and you're not going to catch up with it, it does hold people in reserve.

that said, refuzzasal to come i and we haven't gone back to the prior day's low in the s&p and it seems like there's been an exhaustion of selling over the course of the three months will people try to make hay out of the geopolitical concerns as well as oil. you see the russell settle down a little bit. you can't have this massive week like we did last week and then have a 1 1/3 percent giveback and yesterday was pretty quiet and now we're giving back another more than 1%. >> you don't want it to seem as if it's a stress point and it's sending this message that there's something to be concerned about macrowise. credit has hung in there really well and usually when credit is doing okay, small caps can struggle and it's really telling you things are returning for the worst. yeah. you don't want it to be a constant drag and you don't want that talking point. i always say the concentration of the market worries so many

people that it almost adds to the reservoir of skepticism that the market can feed off of as opposed to being the real indictment. >> thank you. i'll see you tomorrow. >> we aren't going to get under 4400 today and we are getting closer and see what disney delivers, and julia is back with morgan. [ closing bell ringing ] the s&p and nasdaq eking out gains. this is an extension of the longest win streak for boeing of those averages since november of 2021. that is the scorecard out of wall street, but the action is just getting started. >> welcome to "closing bell ove overtime" i'm morgan braen an and jon fortt is off today. the streaming sports and activist campaign from peltz, we'll talk to disney ceo bob iger exclu as soon as the number hits and that is just a few moment away and they'l