tv Fast Money CNBC November 8, 2023 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
5:00 pm
disney earnings flying in afterhours right now. we get a lot of calls kicking off here in the next couple of seconds, so, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a big beat for disney. the company major gains at theme parks, the sharp rise in streaming subscribers and billions more in cost-cutting than expected. a we'll debate. plus, obesity breakthrough. the fda approving mounjaro for weight loss. paving the way for a pop in prescriptions. the details s coming up. and later, the chart master is here with a new call. he'll give us the long and short of his technical takes straight ahead. we start off with disney earnings. shares of the entertainment
5:01 pm
giant slightly higher in the afterhours, beating earnings estimates and raising cost-cutting target revenues. did fall short of expectations. cnbc's julia boorstin spoke with bob iger last hour about the quarter and the future of espn and much more. julia, what's the latest? >> well, melissa, disney reporting a big beat in earnings thanks to expanding its cost-cutting target by $2 billion to $7.5 billion. the company also dramatically reducing its losses in its direct to consumer division, while its subscribers in t division were a big beat. bob iger announcing they are launching a beta test of disney+ integrated with hulu next month. take a listen. >> we do expect subscriber growth to continue, but we're mostly focused now on delivering profitability by the end of fiscal '24. we had a great quarter, as you justnoted, adding 7 million core disney+ subs. that was really the result of great content.
5:02 pm
particularly three strong movies, and disney+ is proving to be extremely popular and in demand and we feel very bullish about its future. >> reporter: disney's commitment to cost-cutting was one reason that nelson dropped his proxy battle back in february, but that appears to be perhaps restarting with ike pearlmutter. >> i had a call from him, but i must say, i don't -- i don't have specifics about what nelson is really after, or what he will ask for. i will say that as is the case, has been the case in the past, that management and the board is always willing to listen to what shareholders have to say. you know, we're in lock-step with the board in terms of our opportunities and our challenges, and our strategic direction. we all feel very optimistic about the future of the company.
5:03 pm
>> reporter: iger told me he was bullish about disney's parks business, despite weakness in florida, and he said he is hopeful about a resolution coming soon in the screen actors' guild strike. and you can find much more of my interview on cnbc.com. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin. i feel like the question you have to ask at this point is, did we see the worst of it? are we starting to see the other side of this disney turnaround? >> yeah, that's what i'm trying -- i've said that before and it's been wrong. couple things. the free cash flow number was good. $3.5 billion or so. this is now pre-covid level levels-ish, so, good for them. i'll say this. you know, this stock and carter can speak to this, series of lower highs and lower lows, seemingly forever. that stopped in early october, and we traded down to $79, bounced to $86. this recent selloff didn't get us through those lows. got it right back to $79 and here we are at $86.
5:04 pm
technically, you get a close above $86.5, $87, it looks interesting for the first time in a long time. >> you said a small long, right? >> yeah, we put out a note, and it was -- very concerned about ad declines in legacy media. that's a joke. no, it's not. point is, that -- the point is, what guy referred to, we were right at the covid low, so, here's a stock that is at a point in time when the whole world has stopped, right? nothing was -- and so, do you make a small bet, not a big bet, that it holds here at those lows? that was the bet, so, we get a little pop today, but i think if you traded it before this, i would just take the money and run. >> so, if you look at -- he lost subscribers last time around, they gained subscribers this time around. but i thought the important line was, 2024, profitability. if that's what the analysts are going to gauge now, then we have some barometer for success, but
5:05 pm
i agree with guy. if you get above $88, $90, the story substantively changes, but it's in a show me state. i need it to do something on the stock chart before i buy it. >> julie, do you think the disney story, in terms of the challenges it faces in legacy media in terms of espn's declining metrics, particularly operating margins, does that reverse what this quarter, in your view -- those are the big overhangs, right, going into this quarter? does this quarter -- did it change anything? >> you know, it's good progress. i don't think it's, you know, bad progress, at least we're in a more stable position, which i think is good. what's really difficult to know is, what does this business look like as we start to kind of pull it apart? who is going to be a buyer for some of these media assets? what is the future of sports? the language they use around sports in particular, it sounds like a software business in terms of its at spirations.
5:06 pm
it doesn't feel like there's a lot of structure to explain how you really make the sports business reach its full potential. and that's hard, because it's just so much more competitive than it used to be. so, i think overall, i think this is a positive quarter a step in the right direction, but the underlying fundamental challenges of this business are still there. competition is still a huge problem. and profitability out in 2024, it's great to put a marker in the sand, but that's a long way off and a lot can happen in between now and then. >> like maybe a recession. >> yeah, all fair points. no, listen, absolutely all fair points she makes. steve said it, as well. you wait for it to prove itself. question is, you know, do you get ahead of that potential proving itself, like a lot of the market participants are doing with the broader market. i actually think you can, and listen, carter can say, you take the money and run, that's probably right to thing to do, but it has a different feel technically now. close above $87 and you are going to start to gain momentum off the back of what was a
5:07 pm
pretty good. >> does knee up 3%, grasso, you know, we almost forget the difficulty that disney had in reaching a deal with carter communications not too long ago and the concessions it had to make. and how maybe disney reached a peak in terms of what it can charge, what it can exact from the cable carriers. >> i'm starting to look at j just -- forget about that aspect of it, how about the reach the peak of what people are willing to pay, because now, all my streaming products cost me more than my linear tv. cost me more than what the cable companies were charging me. so, they're hitting a wall on pricing, and i think they need to actually break through that wall to show her profit. having said that, when you look at what they're charging now, you have the ad tier, you have their non-ad tier, and then also they took a page out of netflix, they said, now they're going to crack down on password sharing. so, maybe you're going to get -- to uy's point, maybe the story
5:08 pm
will reflect it in the stock char chart, but think about the parks. you have shanghai and hong kong, geopolitical. you brought it up. recession. these tickets are not cheap. and if you are talking about a family getting on a plane, going to see one of these parks, there's a big caveat there. there's a huge gray area to julie's point, to my point, about the 2024 profitability, a lot can happen. are people going to dip in their pocket and spend the money to do that? and it's still, and maybe you guys can disagree, it's probably still just about streaming, right? forget about the $28 billion from parks and products and whatever else. >> right. >> so, for someone who brought it today, what would you do with tomorrow? >> ah, if you bought it today, i would say, let it ride, let it ride out. you can't break price. it's too -- that's too short-term for me. i wouldn't lock in a profit of 3%. >> for more on disney's quarter, let's bring in matt bellany.
5:09 pm
is this pop that we're seeing basically better than expected cost-cutting goals, some gains of subscribers? what is fueling this rise, in your view? >> i think it's coast-cutting. i mean, the street has been pretty clear for the most part of this year that it wants to see profitability in streaming, it wants to see some significant cost cuts, and iger going up from 5 and change billion to 7 and change billion, that's a message. and i think the strikes have helped, where they have reduced costs, their free cash flow because of that, has increased, but i think that just the -- the gesture of putting it out there, that they are going to aggressively manage costs at does knee, is what is causing this. >> do you think that we hear anything about espn on this call with analysts? >> i think it's unavoidable. i mean, espn is the 800 pound gorilla of disney, or it has been for the past two decades, and it's pretty clear that it's
5:10 pm
challenged. they have been in the market looking for a deep-pocketed investor to come in to help supercharge espn, and allow it to compete for some of these big sports rights that are coming up, particularly the nba. that's going to be an extra large check that espn is going to have to write, and they're going to have to manage this transition over to streaming. and iger said he wants espn to be the premier digital outpost for sports. that is not easy, when you are competing with apple, amazon, google, all of them. it's really going to be tough. >> and you're trying to reign in costs. i'm curious how you think nelson peltz factors in. december is when he's cleared to start nominating his people for the board of directors. it is unclear how many seats he is after. you know, he had some impact before. it does seem, though, that bob iger has a list of goals and he sort of working toward them at
5:11 pm
this point. so, what's your sense of how that factors in? >> well, two things. first, i do think the cost-cutting is due to some of the activism by nelson peltz and some of the others who have criticized does knee for the spending, but iger is setting up a very nice contrast here. because he's putting fourth four specific goals that he has for this company, and a way to do it, where it's managing the costs in film, figuring out the future of espn, you know, making sure that they are -- they are cutting costs in other ways. ne nelson peltz isn't putting forward that plan. bob iger is saying, i have a plan i'm executing. what are you saying we should do? >> do you think we'll look back on these days, you know, whatever time period, and say, that was the worst period for disney? and we'll be on the other side and this quarter marks that?
5:12 pm
>> yeah, you know, i -- it's tough to be able to say that, because there are some still significant challenge. they're releasing a movie this weekend, "the marvels," that is not expected to do very well. that's part of the marvel cinematic universe that has been untouchable. they have to figure that out. they have to figure out what they're doing with lucas film and "star wars." there's some tremendous creative challenges, especially on the film side. and on streaming, we don't really know what's going to happen between now and the end of 2024, when iger says that he's going to reach profitability. like you guys have said, if there's a recession, if there are other factors in the market that change the calculus there, that could be a big miss. >> matt, great to have you with us. thank you so much. matt belloni of puck news. it sounds like there are a lot of bigger challenges. cost-cutting is great for the here and for the now, beut in terms of the long-term
5:13 pm
trajectory of the company, the other big issues, creative content, espn, legacy media, these are all much bigger things to tackle, guy. >> you can't cost cut your way to, you know, a brand new disney, without question. i think we understand that. i don't think matt is saying that, either. i don't know if this is true, but i'm saying there's talk about potentially reinstating a dividend here and they guided for free cash flow, so, you're trying to -- i think in terms of this stock, it's been so decimated for all the right reasons, by the way, deserved to be where it is, but if this is an inflection point, which it feels to me. i thought it a couple quarters ago, as well. if you get above $87, $88, the technicals kick in. >> meantime, the s&p and nasdaq barely eeking out gains. the s&p higher eight straight days. the dow breaking a seven-day run, ending the day lower by just about one-tenth of a percent.
5:14 pm
the move in the ten-year yield, touching 4.5%. rick santelli gave it the equivalent of a failing grade, a c or d -- >> for you, a c is failing. >> in my household, correct. >> no, no. >> not good. >> c is -- a b is failing. let's -- let's be clear. >> you move up from there. >> exactly. >> steve hassen be talking about yields going lower. they've gone lower. i mean, carter and i had a conversation last monday, i thought the tlt could get up to 89, it did that earlier this week and it did that today. the move, the speed of the move is clearly caught me offguard, but carter will say this, as well. there's going to come a point where lower rates is not going to be good for the equity market. lower rates are going lower because something bad is happening in the company and it's still a market that's driven by fundamentals. so, we might be at that line of demarcation where it all starts
5:15 pm
to flip a little bit. >> we're holding in, though, despite this very quick snap-back in rates. >> right. if you think about the precondition, you have very steep dollar, you have a very steep crude oil market and you have a very steep ten-year yield at 5%. yields are cracking, oil has cracked, and the dollar, after cracking, is sort of backing and filling a bit of a pair of twos. the question is, ultimately, do equities give way? all the things you said are the reason equities go higher -- they are until they aren't. and so, our thinking is that equities will join the softness story, rather than something else. >> julie, you agree with that? >> yeah, i mean, i think there's a lot of pressure, downward pressure. if i think about things fundamentally speaking, it's really hard to get enthusiastic about this consumer. it's hard to feel super sang win on the level of credit. it's hard to feel great about the leverage in the weaker businesses that were kind of zombie businesses in the
5:16 pm
pandemic. we don't have the level of crazy euphoria that you typically have in big recessions, where everyone is spending money like it's going out of style and there's just so much confidence. we don't have that. earnings called are timid. that's how i would describe, you know, ques-3. so, we have that as a buffer. >> grasso, you think mag seven hangs in. >> i do. >> so, decent shot that the s&p will do okay. >> and you have seasonality on your side, as well. so, as long as we don't have unemployment skyrocketing from here, the consumer is still in good shape, i think if the consumer is still in good shape, then the market is still in good shape, and for all things that guy and carter said, rates going down right now are a tailwind until they're not, but i don't see that not coming until maybe the first quarter of the new year. this is a very bullish seasonality issue that we're dealing with right now. >> curious, carter, how do you view seasonality? >> well, i would put that in the category of sort of data mining. you can get data to make any
5:17 pm
case you want, right? there's something called a stock trader's almanac. handled it since i was 22 years old. and you can find -- for instance, if the market goes up nine days in a row, what happened on the tenth day, all waiting, would you belt a whole lot on that? it's a little bit of just numerology, maybe. >> oh. so, it's bogus? >> well, i think it has patterns, but i wouldn't bet money. it's good until it is. coming up, more moves in the afterhours session. results for arm, instacart, mgm and lyft. and a few names on the move after results this morning. how you oushld trade kellanova and ralph lauren. "fast money" is back in two.
5:18 pm
hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. get started today at constantcontact.com constant contact. helping the small stand tall. in a crisis caused by a terrorist massacre. warning civilians to clear out,
5:19 pm
while hamas forces them back. allowing in food and water, which hamas steals. the power goes out and we still have wifi alloto do our homework.ter, and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.
5:20 pm
welcome back to "fast money." we've got a pair of afterhours earnings movers for you. lyft lower. arm's first earnings report as a public company. cnbc's kristina parse neff low has the details. >> we're seeing a double digit revenue growth and the beginning signs of diversify case away from mobile. but the stock is reacting negatively. down about 7%, to weak revenue
5:21 pm
forecast for this current quarter we're in right now. shares are actually trading below its ipo price. recall that it went public september 14th. arm's royalty revenue, which is a major stream, fell, but licensing sales were up, indicating that maybe arm is selling increasing amounts of its technology to current customers. the ceo saying the most recent set of export rules, the export rules for china, don't have a large impact for arm, given their international presence. management saying they have good visibility of its licensing pipeline for the second half of their fiscal year, though there is uncertainty regarding the exact timing of some of those deals. >> all right, kristina, thank you. kristina partsinevelos. guy, what do you think of this quarter? >> well, the quarter is whatever. the guide is what should scare people a lot, and we had this conservation when they became a publicly traded company. at one point, this was a $70
5:22 pm
billion market cap. it was probably trading 27 to 25 times-ish revenue, which is absurd in my opinion. even at current levels, it's still expensive. for a company that -- it does $3 billion of revenue for the last three years. you don't have a lot of growth. the guide is significant, i think. it should scare people at this valuation. they should have the growth to back it up and they don't. and this is their first quarter as a publicly traded company out of the chute. i don't think that's particularly good. >> and they have to diversify away from smartphones. that's what kristina was talking about. remember the headline with nvidia, they were working on an arm-based chip for the pc ♪ ths? i think everyone forgets about that, because they have not diversified away from smartphones. so, at this point, there's not a lot of historic data to look at a chart on arm, so, you have to
5:23 pm
sort of shoot from the hip in semiconductors. do you feel bullish or bearish on them? you have nvidia, you have amd, you have intel, you have micron, you have a lot of other areas to go than placing a bet on an unknown name. >> you don't have a lot of price history, so, there's no price to interpret. something that used to happen in the past when there were specialist firms, they would never allow stock to break ipo price. they would defend it, because it was egg on their face. you've disappointed investors whom you've just placed this issue in their accounts. but all of those things are off now, and breaking price is just that, another messup. all right. let's move onto another afterhours mover. shares of lyft dropping. coming in better than expected. the earnings call is under way. deirdre bosa has the latest. d-bo? >> mel, as the stock was down as much as 5% after the results. adjusted ebitda outlook, better than expected, but perhaps some
5:24 pm
questions about market position weighing, since the new ceo took over. he's been more aggressive on pricing and that has won lyft back some of the market share that it conceded to uber over the last few years. still though, revenue this quarter grew 10% versus uber's 33% mobility growth. and active riders came in lower than the street expected. the company gave some color on the current quarter so far, describing a, quote, terrific october. they said they set records in terms of gross bookings, rides, and driver hours in the weeks and surrounding halloween. now, the call kicked off about 20 minutes ago. ceo talked about their relatively new advertising business, which he called still small and early, but where he sees a ton of potential. guys, it's kind of funny. every gig company is now building a high margin ad business to help pay for what has turned out to be low margin cores. tomorrow, we're going to talk to david risher in the 10:00 a.m. eastern hour and give us more highlights from the quarter. mel? >> i got to ask you about the move in instacart. it was up 7% today, and then it
5:25 pm
gave up most of the gains. what happened? >> i'm just looking at it right now, yeah, it gave up a lot of those gains. let me look into this, i know that advertising was seen as a strength, it uswas up 19%. i have to assume it was something said on the call. i'll check on that one. >> thank you, d-bo. always all over it. what do we make of this -- it's called maplebear. i saw that and i thought -- i didn't know about the maplebear, you know -- >> isn't this -- we just heard from two companies that beat, good, there's no such thing as good or bad earnings, it's earnings, and how the stock reacts. whatever they said, get on the call, it's bad. that's it. they're both down. bad. >> yeah. >> so, when you look at lyft, everyone always compares lyft and uber, and obviously the market, it's actually pretty -- fun or ironic or however you want to say it, uber is up 100%
5:26 pm
year to date. lyft is down 3% year to date. if you look on a one-year basis, uber is up 80% and lyft is down 2%, so to carter's point, the market has inter prettied, the market has ruled on this. uber's the winner, they have a lot more levers to pull. they have a lot more scale. a lot more size, so, if they're basing it on an ad revenue basis, they're going to be a lot more successful than a lyft is going to be at this point in their existence as public companies. >> julie, just quickly on either lyft or instacart? >> i love the point about all of these companies are using advertising as a way to make business models work. it's not even just gig work, amazon, too, is one of the largest ad marketplaces and it's fascinating to me those are the economics that we're seeking after the promises of the wonderful new business models. let's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next.
5:27 pm
it's not all about the afterhours moves. we're getting a read on the consumer from a couple of staples and retail names. we'll dig into those moves next. plus, a big win for eli lilly after a key decision from the fda. what will move will mean for the blockbuster obesity drug market. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. but to advance how the game is played. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.
5:29 pm
5:30 pm
to put it nicely, carter. >> yes. let's talk about the kellanova, the one with the great single letter symbol, the original. so if you go back to the beginning of sector data, as we know it now, standard and poor's 19 1989, k has underperformed by five fold. >> five fold? >> the sector is 5-x what the stock is. it's pathetic. that -- why get involveinvolved? >> so, it's stunk since the beginning of time. >> consistency. >> that's why -- >> like me. ha-ha. >> no comment. >> well, quickly, you know, organic growth in the space is cod word for, you know, we can pass on our costs to the consumer, just so we understand, and they missed. 3.9%, consensus was 4.3. so, they are starting to have to eat costs.
5:31 pm
means margins come down. in terms of levels, carter will point this out, we're at levels we saw in the spring of 2019, which is remarkable, given the backdrop of the broader market. so, if you are looking to trade it, maybe risk/reward sets up against that low, but there's nothing compelling here whatsoever. >> let's get to the retail side of this. ralph lauren popping after a beat. but the company reporting softer consumer demand in its wholesale channel. one of many retailers giving weak guidance today. wholesale channel. department stores. other places where you might go buy this brand, not the ralful lauren store, julie, this is not a surprise, but it's a continuation of a theme. >> yeah, it's almost surprising, right. it's very hard to wean yourself off of the department store channel. it's a large buyer, easy transaction to do, it's very efficient, but when it starts to fall apart in terms of its ability to generate consumer traffic, you're in a world of hurt. so, they don't really have the store base in order to be able to drive that business somewhere else, so, i think it's a
5:32 pm
recognition that their ability to really control their own supply chain and their own ability to reach consumers is up to them, it's going to take time for that to happen and of course, they are exposed to the consumer in a big way. we think of it as the high end, but it's actually the majority of its profitability is in the mid level, i think this is the most at risk. we have a news alert on morgan stanley. the company's international wealth management group drawing scrutiny. kristina partsinevelos has the details. >> the fed is hammering down on its wealth management practices. they did give some warnings to morgan stanley and the fed is saying they are privately reprimanding the bank for not making all the changes it required. more specifically, to prevent rich foreign customers from laundering money at the bank. so, the fed has been looking into this for the last few years or so. they found that morgan stanley is not, you know, changing their practices, and so, this is why we are getting this latest report from "the wall street
5:33 pm
jou journal." >> all right, kristina, thank you. coming up, more afterhours action coming your way. affirm and mgm on the move. we'll bring you the numbers straight ahead. but a huge announcement out of the fda with the blockbuster weight loss drug getting a big thumb's up from regulators. what will it mean for the stock and the entire industry. "fast money" is back right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. 'rba rhtft ts.
5:34 pm
♪ my name is josh sanabria and i am the owner at isla veterinary boutique hospital. i was 5...6 years of age and i knew i was going to be a vet. once alexandra called me to let me know that bank of america had approved my loan... it was important to me. we not only just provide the financing piece, we do everything that we can to surround them with the right people. all you need is a perfect, amazing team that will guide you through the right steps to be successful. and that's what bank of america was for me.
5:36 pm
welcome back to "fast money." the s&p continuing its longest winning streak in two years, up eight straight days, while the nasdaq is now up nine days in a row. some more stocks out with results. take-two higher. affirm jumping after posting a top and bottom line beat, and shares of twilio higher. and we're getting updates on what was behind instacart's reversal. deirdre bosa has more. >> hey, melissa. on the conference call, management said that in the fourth quarter, expect transaction revenues as a percent of gross transaction value to remain flat quarter over quarter. and just really calls into some
5:37 pm
concern that top-line growth that was even a concern when the company was listing going through the ipo process in that core delivery business. especially versus rivals that we've heard from already like uber and doordash. uber delivery revenue grew 6%. doordash total revenue was up 27%. so, that may be behind it, but still, marginally positive. mel? >> all right, d-bo, thank you for the update. eli lilly posting a record close today after u.s. and uk regulators approved its block buster drug tirzepatide for weight loss. lilly saying today it expects the drug to hit pharmacy shelves in the u.s. under the name s zepbound. but the launch could take 18 months based on regulator approvals. our next guest calls this the final piece of the puzzle for lilly's weight loss drug rollout. jeff, great to have you with us. >> hey, thank you, melissa. good to see you. >> i think it's interesting -- i
5:38 pm
mean, you know, it was widely expected that this would get approval as an obesity drug and yet the stock still goes higher, so, what piece of it had not been factored in or is this just the knee-jerk reaction to, it is finally done and so, we're still going to bid the stock higher? >> i think there's a little bit of anxiety about the ultimate approval, if it was going to happen, you know, in november or december, but yeah, you're right. there's no question about the -- about the approval. i think really now the formality of it is that you'll start to see, you know, dtc advertisings, you'll see a ton more commercial really laying out, i think, this year. so, there's a lot of excitement for the rollout. >> they also announced a savings card, which basically lowers the price for uninsured folks. like novo, you know, if you are insured, you can get the drug for 25 bucks per month, a three-month prescription under -- according to lilly, but if you are not, the savings program could mean a lot -- does this differ at all from novo? is this going to help them in the market?
5:39 pm
>> i think they're going to look a lot more alike than different in terms of the commercial strategies. we're not really looking until 2025 to see broader medicare access, you know, i think for the next, say, two years or so, it's really going to be about the commercial piece, and they had a lot of success, lilly did, in diabetes and didn't expect that to be any different for this rollout. >> the big sort of, you know, event that's coming up is the presentation of the full select data from novo nordisk over this weekend. what specifically will you be looking for? the headline data was very impressive. sent shares up 9% that very day for novo. what data points are you looking for? >> you know, overall, you're right. the -- it's a 20%-plus, you know, cardiovascular benefit. we're looking for different subgroups. are the benefit in things like, you know, stroke or heart attack, is that higher than 20%?
5:40 pm
is it 30%? i think the main message coming out of select and coming out of the aha meeting this weekend will be, you know, well, it's not just about weight loss, it's also about, you know, a whole broad swath of cardiovascular benefits, and that's going to be a big part of the commercial piece and the marketing down the road. >> yeah, jeff, you mentioned the catchy jingles, i don't need another song watching my knicks game telling me about my blood sugar levels, but okay, i'll tell you that. but you can't model in terms of eps and eps growth, and where they trade currently. you have to say there's a $57 billion revenue company, on the way to north of 100, given everything we just talked about? what's the revenue growth trajectory here? >> i think that's exactly right. so, the peak here, you know, easily, i think, could be something in the, you know, 50 to $80 billion change. when you look at just mounjaro,
5:41 pm
plus zepbound, in just the core indications, you can get to something in the $50 billion range. we're not including really anything in sleep apnea or liver disease. there are related indications that could take revenues up pretty dramatically. the oral, which is in the next gen, i guess it were, zepbound, probably won't be until 2026, but those are other new products from lilly that are going to take numbers even higher. >> the next generation, i mean, what is the -- how much better is this and in what way is it better? >> well, so, it's a higher rate of weight loss, it could be something in the 25% to even 35% range. but what i would say, though, it's not meant for, you know, for the average consumer, i would say most lower bmi people will probably want an oral. the folks that are on an injected drug are probably, you know, something in the, say, 30 to, you know, 40 even bmi.
5:42 pm
but it's a really high bmi folks that are maybe more acute need that would want this drug called triple g. so, but again, we still have to work out the phase three profile. that's still in clinical development and data, probably coming up sometime i would say beginning of '25. >> all right, jeff, thank you so much for joining us. great to have your analysis. >> thank you. >> jeff me cacham of bank of america. julie, there are so many catalysts that line up, even the fda approveal sent the stock evn higher. >> yeah, i mean, it's just -- it's the only place in health care that's working. everything else has just been completely decimated. separately, i think we should make a rule that whenever they come up with a drug, they have to name the first born at that company that name. these names are totally ridiculous. i cannot keep track of any of them. they're bizarre. and think how fun it would be if you had to up your dose of, like, samantha, 20 milligrams. i need to today to my charlie another 50 milligrams.
5:43 pm
it would be great. >> how do you know there's no zepbound, little zepbound running around? >> in santa monica, there might be. >> could be. >> i upped my dose of samantha in high school and it didn't work out that well for me. but if you look at lilly, lilly's up 70% year to date. novo is up 50% year to date, or thereabouts. amgen hasn't moved and they're going to have an oral dosage, so, you have a lot of green to play on that one. but just remember, when you go to oral, very taxing on the liver, so, easier to do injectable. >> just because the stock has gone up a lot doesn't mean it can't go up some more, right? >> that's correct. >> how does it look? >> uptrends turns into parabolic overshoots. so, this is not parabolic. >> it's not? >> no. this is what i would characterize as a hold. now, there's something called a proper hold, and then on wall street, a hold is a euphemism for sell. only 5% are all stocks are rated
5:44 pm
sell. they say hold, because they don't want to raise ire. this is a proper hold. if you own it, you hold it. >> mel, remember, we had lizzie evans here the other day. she was sit gt right over there. >> yeah, making the case for know have to. >> hold on a second. and remember what she said? surprised me. >> what? >> she said, guy, you said something really smart yesterday on the show -- >> i couldn't believe it. >> nor could i. but what we talked about, every time we've seen a selloff in this stock, people run from it, don't. it's giving you an opportunity. coming up, crude oil chaos. the commodity crumbles. how should you play the space? the details ahead. plus, more afterhours action for you. mgm is up 1.6%. those trades and more when "fast money" returns.
5:47 pm
5:48 pm
expectations in regionals, in las vegas, and in macao, where it set new records by various metrics. it announces a new $2 billion buyout -- buy-back, rather, and said that will be the preferred method of returning cash to shareholders. hornbuckle says in macao they are making changes 0 ts to the g floor for additional tables, and embracing mass customer segment s. he says they are negotiating with the culinary union in las vegas. when that's done, they will see the biggest pay raise ever, something that we heard similar from caesars, which completed their deal today. but he says the las vegas results are more than enough to compensate for those wage pressures. on f-1 next week, he said he's expecting 50% better returns than any event they've ever hosted. there's a lot of excitement around that. i'm heading to las vegas next
5:49 pm
week, melissa, i'll see it first-hand. >> yeah, and it's the week after f-1, right, contessa, so, that should be interesting to see how the city gets through that. >> f-1 next week and we head into new year's, which is a big deal, and then super bowl after that. >> yeah. just quickly, contessa, in terms of the plans for the middle east? >> yeah, because they are up against now wynn going in and developing a resort in the uae. in dubai, there are big plans. right now, they are just a leisure management company right now. but if casinos come onboard, they think that is possible, that they would be in, fully in, ready to place equity down in a casino. >> wow. contessa, thank you. >> sure. >> contessa brewer. guy, what's the trade here? >> $2 billion buy-back on a $13 billion market cap is significant. $51, november of '21, traded up again there in july. double top. but since then, you're in this uptrend from 2019, which, quite frankly, is in tact. i think you can own this stock on the back of this quarter.
5:50 pm
coming up, down goes crude. oil prices crumbling below the $75 mark for the first time since late july. what is next for investors and drivers everywhere? the details right after this quick break. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )
5:51 pm
5:52 pm
the power goes out and we still have wifi constant contact. to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.
5:53 pm
welcome back. crude has been in free fall since late september, down nearly 20% from recent highs, tumbling below $75 a barrel today. the first time since late july. so, where is oil heading? let's ask the chart master. carter? >> so, it's interesting juncture. we ourselves, just for what it is worst, we said we are closing the short. so, the short from late september, we're down almost $20 a barrel and at this point, i would just be flat, which is to say, just because it's down doesn't make it a long, playing for a bounce, but it is down enough where i think it's a bit overstaying one's welcome to retain shorts. >> what do you think, grass? >> i think the spr is going to be replenished. the administration hasn't done a great job. they've telegraphed it so people jump in and buy oil. i think carter was right to
5:54 pm
close out that position, because i think there's going to be some stability in the price of oil, and those large integrated names haven't performed very well even with all the m&a that's going on. you sort of have to fish through and see who is going to be the next candidate to be bought out, but exxonmobil, chevron, their charts, to me, seem very bearish, i would stay out of energy right now. >> julie? >> you know, i always stay out of energy. it's just so hard to find businesses that aren't commoditized, so, it's never a space i'm interested in. >> guy, i think that you would say -- >> yeah -- >> doesn't matter where crude oil is, the stocks can do well. >> it seems -- now, kudos to steve and carter, they've been on this. i'll say this, it feels as though somebody or some ground of companies are getting absolutely blown up, short bonds, long energy, probably low on the dollar, as well. and there's been this massive unwind that probably technology is getting a lot of the sort of the kick-back for and you are seeing it in terms of stock
5:55 pm
prices. fundamentals really haven't changed that much. and i was one of the piece that thought when you heard all that m&a announcement, that would be the next catalyst higher. that was wrong. but it doesn't mean, it's not going to happen at some point. so, i would stay with the space despite its pullback. >> we thought the saudis were going to want to push oil to 100 and that was almost a foregone conclusion, yet here we are. carter, is there anything in the charts that tells you this is, you know, as guy points out, maybe a move that was a technical move of some sort because of positioning versus just a move -- >> the move in crude was -- it's the moment of may and june. it's $65 a barrel, hard landing, recession, crude's going to 50. there's something called recency and we're all sometimes prone to fall into that trap. and then, of course, when it starts getting to $80, $85, it's going to $100 a barrel, it's sequencing. sometimes you get too far in one direction or the other and it's right to say, hey, we'll move the other way. >> and the truth is, oil is
5:56 pm
always in a trading range. the geopolitical aspect, we're worried about the war in the middle east escalating, and it hasn't done that, so, the commodity always overshoots on any type of risk to what carter is saying. but the sweet spot for the saudis, for the russians, for everyone, is probably in the 80s, because once it gets to 100, it gets too expensive, and people back away from it, and then you see that demand shock happen. all right, up next, final trades.
5:59 pm
the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. time for the final trade. julie biel? >> you know, i'm really thinking about high quality right now with this much uncertainty. ansys is where you want to be. >> steve grasso? >> arista networks, final trade on october 27th. take profits. >> carter braxton worth? >> walmart. all-time highs. take profits. >> oh. not the same as short. >> ah -- i'd do with new money short. >> all right. guy? >> contessa gets to go to vegas -- >> i know. >> it's fantastic.
6:00 pm
>> where do we go? >> that f-1 thing, sarah has that doc. good for sarah. if you can't go to vegas, buy wynn resorts. >> thank you for watching "fast money." see you back tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but explain all this to you and educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom, or tweet me @jimcramer. with the market growing a little more tepid after a furious advance, the dow sinking 4
86 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on