(♪ ♪) where could reinvention take your business? accenture. let there be change. good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker. three ceos painted a picture of the consumer from where they're going to where they're going. affirm, investors are buying now not later. a smaller loss and revenue beat has shares surging we'll talk to max levgen in a

moment. is the experience e-economy still growing? and as consumers continue to battle cost pressures, will the media and entertainment space see a pullback in spending the ceo of siriusxm will join us as the company rolls out a new streaming app. get a check of the markets s&p, still some time to notch that nine-day winning streak they reversed some losses today. yields higher which could be contributing to weakness in equities. busy day on the fed front. we got breaking news out of the fed. let's get to steve liesman. >> two fed speakers coming out this hour, and both giving us various versions of, we're not exactly sure the fed's governor bowman, one of the more hawkish members, says she expects a need to increase the funds rate. a little wiggle room in her

comment. she says she's going to support a hike if progress on inflation stalls says she's watching treasury yields and treasury markets as well, including watching liquidity conditions in the treasury market. she expresses some concern about a possible abrupt selloff in treasury markets if yields rise sharply. she's involved in the banking supervision at the fed she says the funds rate appears to be restrictive. financial conditions have tightened. she says she's seen considerable progress on lower inflation. don't get too excited because she goes on to say inflation remains high and recent readings have been uneven some parts of the core service inflation, which the fed watches closely, have picked up. there's a risk core service inflation remains stubbornly persistent on to tom barkin, the richmond fed president, he says the fed has time to figure all this this out, whether the economy is reaccelerating or slowing down, headed to a recession or soft landing. they are making real progress on inflation, echoing bowman's

words and the economy has remained healthy it's clearly not in a recession. he does, though, however, anticipate a slowdown. tighter credit conditions out there, lagged effects of monetary policy. those, he says, could bring down inflation further. and inflation could potentially return to target without more hikes or doing more damage to the economy. the job reducing inflation, he says, is not done and the fed has to walk a fine line between doing too much or doing too little then he also says the anecdotes, he says, suggests the economy could be weaker than the data suggests but he gets a little more hawkish when he says the current strong demand would likely require more hikes and he's not convinced inflation is heading smoothly to 2% guys, i'll stop there and throw it back to you with this idea that a lot of folks are in the middle here, waiting to see how this economy breaks. we have had very strong third quarter and then we're expecting weakness now in the fourth quarter or definitely a slowdown, leslie of course, these are the only --

two of the speakers we have. interim st. louis fed president coming up at noon and fed president jay powell coming up at 2:00. >> sounds like the additional rate hikes not off the table steve, thank you that was the perfect setup for our next guest when it comes to fining value, our next guest thinks rates have peaked and thinks lower rates moving forward will provide positive environment for growth stocks tech, that investors have shied away on. joining us, cio gill simon thank you for be here. so, your thesis in contrast, perhaps, to some fed officials is rates have peaked what do you think that means for your investing thesis? and at what level do rates have to actually get to in order to really provide a significant tailwind for growth stocks it's one thing for them tohave

peaked, but if they are higher for longer, is that enough, really, to jump start some growth at the magnificent seven? >> yeah, i think the most important thing to recognize is how heavily the rate change has weighed on growth stocks the last couple of years so, you know, it's been a difficult market to own growth stocks now and we're just looking forward to the rate of change moderating we're not calling for a big decline in rates, but we're looking for an environment where hopefully the rate -- the rate backdrop is stable and investors can focus on really durable growth stories, which obviously is what we're looking for. >> yeah, i've heard that from managers it's not so much the absolute level but the delta and the uncertainty as far as the direction of rates do you think there is a recession per requisite for rate cuts if so, what does that mean for

technology investing right now obviously, it would make the cost of capital cheaper but, on the other hand, technology doesn't usually perform well if there is a recession >> ever since the pandemic, it's been complicated there have been pockets of weakness in enterprise spending now going on two years we've seen massive layoffs across certain subsectors and, obviously, belt tightening on spending we think there's probably going to be some consumer recession coming when you think about big ticket kind of items like autos, you know, housing, of course, we even look at things like travel, which is discretionary those are pockets we're steering clear of outside of those areas, we've already seen, you know, pretty decent belt-tightening both in enterprise of course, we like to own companies that have big recurring revenue streams. so, we're looking for companies that can withstand even what we're using as our base case a shallow recession.

>> that's been one theme coming out of the quaurer a lot of companies had earnings recession, made the necessary adjustments and now at least improving on margin. for example, is roblox a good example of that? >> we think it's a great example. roblox is a stock that peaked at $140 a share a couple years ago. troughed around $20. i was on a couple months ago talking to leslie about it and the call we were making at the time was really -- at the time we had written a report and presented that margins -- margin leverage is coming to the metaverse. we're encouraged to see roblox's earnings yesterday, which spoke to exactly that, which is, first of all, their ebitda margin doubled from the first quarter, from 5% to 10% in q3, but the company also put a line in the sand and said this is really a new era for them going forward where they're looking to really leverage the fixed cost of their business they've been spending a lot post

the pandemic because their platform has grown substantially. and so they're hosting an investor day next week we're looking forward to more information. we're expecting the margins to eventually creep back into the 20s from 10% this past quarter. >> roblox down 2.5% but up 45% since that appearance in late september. some other big movers you own today's, take 2 interactive and oddgen those are performing well on the heels of solid earnings report do you like them still given today's moves or are you going to criticalize some moves? >> take 2 we've owned for a couple of years. the pitch there is centered around a major event next year, which is the launch of gta6, grand theft auto, which is -- not just one of the biggest franchises in gaming, but across

entertainment broadly. they haven't released a new game since, i think almost 11 years and the grand theft auto franchise has sold 190 million units in 25 years. so, this is a multibillion dollar, massive franchise. we're really excited going to that catalyst, which we think is either late next year or early 2025 we think it will triple the earnings power of the company from something in the $3 to $4 share range to $10 to $12 a share in the coming years. that one the catalyst is still in front of us adyen is an interesting company. doesn't get as much exposure or awareness in the u.s it's a european-based payment processing company one of the fastest growing digital payment processors in the world. it was a darling tech stock. one of the rare growth tech stocks that's actually domiciled in europe. it traded at an expensive multiple for a long time they surprised people with a

little slowing growth earlier this year. there's been some competitive noise from a unit that's actually owned by paypal it looks like they're responding -- one of the downsides to being a european company is you report earnings twice a year instead of every quarter. after they surprise people in august, the stock really kind of nosedived. we like to buy great companies when the stocks are down we took advantage of that pullback the last couple of months the company responded to a lot of concerns from wall street, that people were looking for more transparency. they held an investor day yesterday in san francisco talking about their path to continued 25% revenue growth as well as 50% ebitda margins the company currently does low 40s ebitda margins there are very few companies with the profile of mid-20s revenue growth with 50% margins. so, people are excited again today that the company was willing to kind of lay that path out and get people some

confidence that the growth wasn't continuing to decelerate. >> that stock up 38% right now gill, thank you very much for being here appreciate it. >> good to see you guys. let's get to one of the big movers, that's affirm skyrocketing to a new 52-week high after beating expectations across the board comes on the heels of last week's expansion of its amazon partnership to include b2b commerce platform. joining us is affirm ceo max levgin stock up to 27, going back to september of last year do you think this is about the margins or the margin guidance or the gmv guidance? >> if i knew what moves the market had, i would probably have a different job i have no idea what happens on a day-to-day basis but i wish our market was valued on year-to-year, decade-to-decade basis.

day-to-day is not what i would like to think about. >> help us understand where the turn is happening at its core. >> this quarter actually -- obviously, we beat across the board. grew 37% year on year. economics were super strong. we always guide to 3% to 4% and the percentage of gmb. we came up at 3.8, the higher side of that range all in all, we've done really well there's not one thing that stands out this quarter. what we really did well is executed and executed relentlessly and the fruit of our labor is visible and we'll absolutely try to continue the same thing on and on and on. >> is it a comment on the consumer and the way in which they are viewing how to pay for things is it a signal of household balance sheet stress >> no. i don't think it's a signal of balance sheet stress but inc. it's a sign of consumer preference as you know, we launched our

long-awaited debit card last quarter in a big way and we saw fantastic growth last quarter, again we're showing strong demand from the consumer side for this way of buying it's a new product doesn't really exist anywhere else but at affirm a debit card, you're in total control. you can buy now, pay later or just buy with your bank account. that functionality speaks to this new -- the need we see in the market from people wanting more control and more transparency about their money >> what are you seeing right now? what's your expectation for consumer credit quality? >> you know, again, if i could see the future, i would probably do something else with my time what we do have is a business model that is just perfect for, frankly, uncertain times we lend in a very short term the weighted average of our life is somewhere around four months.

we underwrite every single transaction and sometimes we have to say no when we think people are overextend willing themselves and wouldn't be able to pay for the loan. we don't charge late fees which aligns our consumers all those structural decisions we made over ten years ago when we started the company put us in the driver's seat. every time we see a macro wind blow the other way, we change our model. we've been running the company very carefully from a risk point of view for the last year and a half you can see that if i were to speculate what's going on in the market, people have once again noticed that as all the other issuers, other issuers are seeing creeping delinquenc delinquencies. we've posted another quarter of really strong, highly resistant credit results >> we mentioned the amazon partnership. i'm curious about the brick and mortar element and whether or not you see checkout as an area

that you could grow or is that sort of a toy on the side? >> no, no, it's incredibly important. one of the reasons we went out and printed these cards is because we realize we're on the order of a couple percent of total e-commerce in the u.s. but a spec of overall commerce because it's not convenient to pull out your phone, fidget with it when you're trying to pay for groceries or pay for a cup of coffee having a debit card is a great voucher. affirm on a debit card is what we wanted to deliver because we wanted to be in brick and mortar we have lots of ideas and lots of things we're plowing into the brick and mortar market because we see demand for the same kind of product in plastic and inside apps there are lots to do there, digital wallets, et cetera, et cetera. >> kind of rhymes with what we're seeing about the appeal of having a place to shop physically, something consumers didn't have for a while.

max, we try to get you on macro. maybe next time we'll try harder always good to see you. after the break the ceo of airbnb joins us on newly released features and volatility heading into q4. that stock up 40% just this year alone. siriusxm is undergoing a rebrand and launching a new app. the ceo will join us from the mediinst cfencina veoronree a moment e great benefits from principal. so i know i'm taken care of. and not just me. but the ones who matter most to me. ♪♪

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welcome back take a look at airbnb, revamping the platforms, ratings, reviews, all just after delivering that earnings beat in q3 but issuing guidance going into year-end joining us on cnbc, brian chesky what a treat for us. >> thank you for having me today. >> i know you're probably sick of the question, but all year long the market's been trying to find out if the consumer is moderating their leisure travel

spend. any sign of it yet >> not really. people want to travel. we're seeing many reasons people traveled before the pandemic, crossing borders, going to city, which was 80% of our business, is back. at the same time, many of the pandemic type behaviors, like people booking larger homes, going less urban areas, staying longer s here to stay. we've been generally cautious about the volatility given the geopolitical environment around the world. with that being said, we're confident. >> walk me through the metrics, is it tied to a comment you made about some elements of the company being broken >> it's really about the idea that we want people to really love our service as big as airbnb, ten times as many people stay in hotels when we ask people, why do you stay in hotels they say the number one reason su know what you're going to get every single time. we asked ourselves, what if we could solve this problem we can we have over 370 million reviews

left on airbnb, customer service contacts we've taken that data and created a new product called guest favorites where the most loved homes on airbnb. they combine the uniqueness and the reliability you come to expect in a hotel. i think this will be the turning of the corner for the company where we can start focusing on new ventures. >> are you considering any sort of loyalty program when i hear you say you want people to love the service, all of these changes sound great, but another reason people stay in hotels is because they have points they want to spend and generate and use them moving forward. to capitalize on the repeat customers, is that something you're considering as well >> not at this moment. we always felt like the best loyalty program is people loving you. in other words, it's less conditional love they really love your service and they come back the vast majority of our customers come back direct. we don't have to pay them. 90% of our traffic is not paid direct we focus on people loving our

service. if we did something, it would be quite different than what other people do. >> as you seek to kind of grow demand from here, how saturated do you think the u.s. market is, especially with all of the regulations in new york city in particular and how important is it to grow in international markets where you haven't been as penetrated so far >> i think we're just scratching the surface of the united states let's put this in perspective. two out of three airbnbs in the united states according to census data in places where there's not a single hotel again, hotels are more than 10x the size of airbnb our prices are flat year over year hotels are up 10%. we're actually down 3% in the united states. our supply is growing 18% year over year. that's the u.s u.s. is one of the highest penetrations in the world, second highest just behind canada and the united states so, it turns out theirs a whole bunch of other countries take, for example, germany, korea, japan, brazil and many

other emerging markets where some of the largest tourism markets in the world growing quickly in airbnb but much lower penetration. international is going to be a big story for airbnb over the next two years >> do geopolitics make you worry about that >> it just makes you want to be cautious when we're living outlooks for the next quarter. one of the things i've learned, we went through the biggest destruction to travel since world war ii, which was the pandemic after our business dropped 80%, i think a lot of people counted airbnb out what we saw is our business model is probably the sing most resilient model in all of travel because we're in 100,000 cities at nearly every price point, big cities, rural communities. we cater to individual travelers, families, budget to lux. i want to make sure people understand this is an uncertain time for a lot of people but they also really want to travel. >> i don't think they make certain times, at least anymore.

brian, i am curious thinking about the legacy of the company and what you've innovated, are you surprised either positively or negatively about how the legacy hotel industry responded or didn't respond? >> you know, i think that -- i think that -- i'm not super surprised with how things played out. i think when we started airbnb people saw us as a threat to the hotel industry we were described as disruptive. i believe for us to win, nobody has to lose. we've been able to find we can co-exist airbnb doing 500,000 nights booked around the world. i think we offer something different if you're traveling with a group and you don't want to stay in separate hotel rooms, if you want to live in a local community, save a bit more money, if you're traveling with a family, airbnb is a great use case i think there can be great use cases and some people use both and that's okay. >> speaking about saving money,

i'm curious about what you're seeing on the inflationary picture with regard to pricing currently and whether you're in control or you're able to bring those prices down to bring more customers to these properties. >> yeah, obviously, our hosts set the prices, not us what we can do is give hosts the best tools and visibility to make sure they're pricing competitively. last year this was a bit of an issue for us we saw prices rising and we thought that was going to be a risk to our host community because one of our core values to the customer is to provide affordable alternatives to hotels since then we've invested a lot in up-front pricing tools, better tools to provide discounts for hosts, give them visibility as hosts offer better deals, they often make more money because they offer such low occupancy. if a host is only 30% occupancy, they lower their price a little bit, they may sell more nights a hotel can't do that. it's difficult for a hotel, 80%

occupancy to lower prices and make more money. >> really sophisticated look at where we are in travel maybe we'll talk about the work from home element and how hybrid has changed the game good to see you. >> thank you. more earnings ahead. we'll discuss disney's first quarter and a big quarterly loss at softbank. don't miss the ceo of eli lilly on the approval of the company's weight loss drug the stock up 1 jt isee0%usth wk. we're back in a minute together, we built something truly beautiful. it takes years of dedication to get to this milestone. the new york stock exchange is a symbol of what america is all about the potential of an american dream.

it is day one. a lot of work has happened to lead to this historic moment. the only way you can move a society forward is a true expression of freedom. (♪♪)

best day for disney since december 2020. almost three years up 6.9%. quaurntly q4 profits coming up the ad market still seeing weakness and cost-cutting remains in focus in terms of the street reactio natheson upgraded. disney has well underperformed since the s&p since then despite concerns over the linear segment. the street remaining bullish jpmorgan and b of a reiterate buy calls with b of a saying the strategic transformation is in motion certainly in motion. s&p reclaimed some gains let's get a news update with bertha coombs. >> the white house says israel has agreed to four-hour daily

pauses in northern gaza every day to give time for civilians to evacuate from the center of the military operation the news comes after israel's president told nbc news today his country has received no substantial offer to free hostages held by hamas the comments seem to undercut reports that a deal may be close at hand. hamas is holding an estimated 240 people captive north carolina is under a state of emergency right now as wildfires burn in the remote western part of the state. the largest has scorched about 4,000 acres of land. state officials say an unusually dry fall and above average temperatures are fueling the flames. and in less than 80 years, census bureau officials expect the u.s. population will start to shrink. projections show the u.s. will have about 370 million people

living here in 2080 before reversing course and dropping to about 366 million by the end of the century. officials say this is partially the result of declining birth rates. >> i won't be here to see it. >> i won't either. >> definitely not helping the cause. >> you are you are. >> a little bit. thank you. slhares of siriusxm down 20% this year but the company unveiling a new app and rebrand to bring in more subscribers the ceo joins us to discuss that and the recent merger proposal from liberty media those shares up 2% health insurance. it's often hard to know which way to go. it's nice to

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amc, down 11%, despite a good q3. shares are plunging after the company filed to offer up to $350 million worth of stock. the filings said amc plans to use the net proceeds, if any, to bolster their liquidity to refinance, redeem or repurchase existing indebtedness and for general corporate purchases. apparently "barbie" wasn't enough, i think it generated $1.5 billion, to outweigh this sell plan. meantime, several announcements from siriusxm yesterday, including this new app and a streaming plan to undercut rival spotify and apple. david is at investor day with the ceo. >> i'm joined by jennifer, good to see you good to have you back again. let's talk about what carl just

mentioned. you may not have heard it. the introduction yesterday of, let me make sure i get everything right in terms of the rollout of your next generation of industry streaming app. what does that mean and what will it mean for the company >> thank you for having me yesterday we did our net siriusxm next generation media event. it's more than just an app we'll have new apps coming out december 14th. it's also an entirely new tech platform it will underpin everything we're doing in marketing and across our products. really with the idea of developing more data-driven personalization, which is going to address the pain points we see with consumers in getting it to the content they love in our service. so, we have a great, strong business 34 million subscribers to really reach the next generation, it's about helping people find all the great content we have in a much easier way. >> what is it going to mean for me in my car when i'm

navigating, for example? how is it going to show itself >> the in-car product is generated by the product cycle oems it will come through this year and it will roll through 360l which leverages the satellite and ip into the car. we'll have things if you're listening in the car to cnbc and you get out and you want to continue listening t will move seamlessly to your mobile app and then into your connected devices in the home. those are things that will enhance the listening experience for consumers and improve engagement overall which leads to better retention for our customer base. >> what are you seeing when it comes to retention right now >> right now we have turn at about 1.6% the biggest change in the last several months has really been about vehicle-related turn as the industry starts to come back and new and used car sales, that has an impact of people turning over their vehicles. otherwise the involuntary side

is still strong despite different opinions about the health of the consumer generally. >> what do you think about the health of the consumer right now? what are you seeing in terms of churn? you mention the numbers, but what is your expectations heading into next year in particular >> that's really the first place we look as a leading indicator, just entry rates on credit card nonpay we aren't really seeing any indicators today that there's an issue. but i believe we have such a strong and loyal customer base and repeat listening behavior whether you're commuting or listening in the home otherwise keeps our churn at a healthy level. >> what is the streaming customer right now, what are your expectations? pandora is part of that but overall. >> we're focused on siriusxm and getting new products out for siriusxm that benefits not only the streaming-only customers, and we expect to see more growth there, but in-car customers who will have a better streaming

experience outside of the car. and then with this new platform, we'll be able to bring pandora over to the new platform probably later next year we certainly have the optionality to at that point look at whether or not siriusxm and pandora should be part of one product. >> what are your expectations when it comes to that? does it make sense >> i think there are elements that make a lot of sense we've been hesitant to do anything yet because both services have very strong, loyal customer bases we to want make sure if we were to bring the products together there's something unique we're offering to consumers. it makes sense. >> i spent some time with john malone and i did notice because we were talking about capital allocation, a higher interest rate environment i did notice you spent time on that yesterday in your presentation as well free cash flow guidance, 1.15 billion this year, but you talked about capex starting to fall, at least in a few years from now you know, how are you viewing sort of your leverage ratio, jennifer, and the ability to obviously generate cash and

potentially use it not just for growth initiatives but even m&a, i guess? >> we've maintained a healthy balance sheet. no maturities until 2026 our cost of capital is low on the debt side. all fixed rate and we're at about, you know, low to mid threes, which has been our long-term guidance for leverage ratio and we would expect that to continue going forward. yet we still delivered close to $20 billion to cash investors since we started our dividend program. we increased our dividend recently again 10% it's been several years in a row where we've increased our dividend we're just over 2% yield on the dividend now so, we do have a lot of flexibility with the balance sheet we have, cash flow, as you mentioned, satellite capex cycle we're going through the normal 15-year refresh and we will be through that in a few years. so, satellite capex this year is about $300 million, about the same next year, but in a few years it goes to zero.

there are a number of tailwinds. >> i assume no real updates to share but i have to ask about the process in terms of liberty's offer and where things stand. at least timing wise, can you give people a sense of when you would like to reach some resolution >> not really. we have a strong special committee that represents the board of directors and shareholders they have representation on the banking and legal side for advisory i know the discussions continue, but i don't have anything in particular to say on timing, but i think we all want simplification overall >> right and who showed up yesterday? howard was there >> howard was there. kevin hart, conan o'brien, andy cohen, kelly clarkson. >> kelly will have her own channel? >> yes. >> and jon mayer. >> john mayer. >> do you have a favorite channel? >> i have lots of favorites. >> thanks for taking the time. appreciate it. leslie, back over to you. >> great stuff, david. coming up, things aren't

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s&p hanging onto a slight gain a couple hours into trading. let's go post to post with bob pisani. >> we're still up a point. if we can do it, nine days in a row, november 2004 last time we did something like this. that's quite impressive. we have good momentum. interest rate sensitive stuff and generally big cap tech has been doing well. a number of new highs. microsoft and service now doing well they had their earnings at the end of october and they've been up big i think it was 550 or so at the end of october look at that, 630, up almost every single day reits have been doing better interest rate sensitive. putting up home builders i know i'm doing it almost every

day. horton, another up day for them. remember, they're up must be eight of the last nine days. up 18%, 19% this month they're not far. they're like 5% from a new high. pulte is doing great lennar has been moving up. big cap tech, interest rate sensitive sectors as well. want to talk about ipos because we got some earnings reports from some of the big names like arm out there. generally, it has been disappointing. so, remember you'll the news around birkenstock a month ago, priced at $46, it's now $40. that's an improvement. the first few weeks of trading it was around $38 or so. right around that number so, the important thing is that's been a real disappointment overall people losing money trading that one. we have kenvu, over here, that was a long time ago. that was in may. it went public at $22. it's now $19 but in the first few months of trading, all the trading was around $26

essentially all people who bought in right after it went public have been under water this is generally true of everything else. you have instacart priced at $30. it's trading now at $24. arm had their earnings it's essentially trading right around the initial price of $51. but that stock was trading $55 to $65 for the first several days after it went public. so, everybody who bought in the first several days at instacart -- excuse me, at arm, is now under water i don't care whether it's $51 or not. the initial buyers on the first trading days are under water so, the problem with the ipo market is legion right now we're not seeing any big new names coming we should be seeing big ipos this couple of weeks before thanksgiving that's when you get the deals done before the holidays come in we're not seeing them because we've got poor after-market performance in october we saw rates going up, which say real killer. they've been going down in the last week or so.

still a little too early of course, we've had dramatically lower valuations for several companies, including instacart that have gone public. leslie, back to you. >> bob, there's a rule in the ipo world that you're supposed to nail that first earnings out of the gate. and it doesn't appear to be the case. >> not with arm. >> which fits in with the whole ipo sentiment right now. the media world is buzzing about the deal between sag-aftra and the studios. more details when we come back have you ever wondered what an icon,... ...a legend,... ...a legacy,... ...a pop star,...

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welcome back softbank posting another loss saying it was related to the investment and financial support for wework which filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy this week. deirdre bosa has the details in today's "tech check. hey, dee >> hey, leslie this quarter should have been m masa son's, masa even brought back the golden goose slide from 2021 the goose is the information revolution, the eggs ref softbank's successes maybe small to rates alibaba, yahoo japan, softbank's telco company, sprint, and the latest golden leg, arm unfortunately this graphic does not take into account losing bets and the japanese conglomerate posted a loss on the quarter and cumulative losses in wework at $14.3

billion, a staggering amount of money. masa son himself wasn't on hand to dlifreliver the results but e ceo focused on positives like $29 billion of assets in his portfolio he said softbank may be able to cash in on soon calling out ticktock parent bite dance. this shows how the liquidity profile has strengthened and makes up less of the portfolio than before. more capital, more money to deploy as they move on to an offensive investment stance focused on ai. one of the largest holdest, arm, is losing value, down from its peak of $69 a share and today on disappointing earnings is down 6% so that raises some questions as to whether arm can be the new alibaba. as you see here masa son has been able to draw down on its

alibaba stake to make new investments and profitability. that stake has been dwindled down and arm has increased its position in the portfolio going from 8% to 24% of the portfolio, but, guys, i mean, alibaba was a once-in-a-lifetime -- you can argue once in a few decades investment, from $20 billion to over $100 billion. very unlikely arm will be as lucrative. >> although a lot of people coming to arm's defense, dee, talking about the guidance more cyclical, and renee haas telling jim the story is a lot more structural than that >> yeah, and that's fine even if arm goes on to become a $100 billion, $200 billion market cap, it's not going to be that alibaba in the portfolio. there are some things it can do, draw down that position and we know that masa son and softbank

are on the ai hype train so far investments focused on logistics and transportation in the space. hasn't been in the generative ai companies. we'll see because the cfo reiterated again they will be going out and making investments. >> dee, a great take the street is buzzing about the end of the actors' strike. the union reaching a tentative deal with the studios last night paving the way for the tv and movie industry to get back to work streaming service revenue and ai were the top issues that caused the strike to last 118 days. let's bring in julia boorstin and, julia, talk about what we're able to without having seen details about the deal. >> reporter: we haven't seen details yet. they have to officially vote on it but it does seem, based on everything i've heard this is a deal that is done.

i'm already hearing from people who were involved in tv shows they're going to try to ramp up and restart production within the next couple of weeks all signs are go here. there's been so much focus on the strike around streaming and how to compensate actors for streaming success. and one of the key sticking points of the negotiations is at one point the actors guild was asking for a percentage of all streaming revenue. so saying they wanted 2% or 1%, this is something the studios and platforms didn't want to do. my understanding is they made an agreement similar to what the writers guild want, a bonus in streaming success, so something that compensated people more if a show of successful or a film was successful but not a flat percentage of revenue. >> more shared economics there what does this mean for promotions ahead of the holiday season while the strike was going on,

actors were hampered, they weren't able to do red carpets and promote their movies now there's green light go on that front >> green light go. there was a lot of concern a deal would not get done and a lot of films set even for the holidays were delayed. some films are set for release and studios were hedging their bets if we don't we can still launch without them now we'll see the studios reaching out saying how quickly can we get you out there to promote the films? we shouldn't underestimate the value to get actors to promote on social media. that's free advertising for them >> albert brooks was out tweeting on max. can you explain to viewers if the message about the willingness to do asset sales was altered?

>> so specifically i asked about the interest in selling the linear networks because this is something that was put on the table, said back in his conversation with david faber in july that everything was on the table and for the first time he indicated they were potentially looking at splitting off the linear networks. that was a big deal to drop that bomb he said we are just interesting everything and said everything is on the table including their india hot star assets. when i pressed him on the linear tv question, he said we've been investigating the potential for this division and see more upside now than originally to me that indicates maybe they might be more interested in holding on to those assets than a couple months ago. >> way to move the needle, julia. great stuff. disney back above 90

that's interesting to watch. tape, meantime -- i wonder if we're going to do this -- >> nine days in a row. >> the first time since '04. >> at least in our hour it turned positive. >> central bank commentary including powell at 2:00 eastern time interesting take as we're back in the green to post 9 and "the half. carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, the rally in stocks going for the longest winning streak, as carl just said,some 19 years today. we debate whether the investing landscape really is improving. joining me josh brown, stephanie link, rob sechan we'll take you to the wall and show you what markets are doing. we're going for 4400, for nine in a row, ten in a row on the nasdaq how much has the landscape really improved for stocks >> i think mainly what's improved is