we are close to the highs, i think, that we have seen 132 points now after the winning streak was interrupted, but maybe we're back on track. you got the nasdaq up about 65 s&p, up 19 we will be back. thanks for helping ab andrew, great job. do you say happy veterans day? anyway, tomorrow is veterans day, say something nice, ask a veteran about his or her story "squawk on the street" is coming up right now ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange, closing out a choppy week and that equity stumble on thursday. the s&p, about a dozen points from breaking even for the week. got some earnings blow-ups to look at. biden and xi announce a summit next week. our road map is going to begin

with the powell effect on markets as the fed chair's message does put an end to that win streak tesla shares are down almost 5% this week, but that's not stopping one firm from calling it a very expensive auto company. plus, treasury secretary yellen to meet with china's vice premier for a second day, setting the stage for talks between presidents biden and xi that, of course, are expected next week. let's begin with the markets and the end of that win streak for the s&p 500 and nasdaq two years long following this comment from the fed chair yesterday. >> the fomc is committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance. we know that ongoing progress toward our 2% goal is not assured. inflation has given us a few head fakes along the way if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.

i jim, 24 hours ago, you said, look out for the auction i'm not sure you were counting on even this >> i didn't count on this auction, which was really horrible, and i think that's what happened is we tend to forget that we have to deal with 30-year issuance this year because it was done by a treasury that, frankly, never thought that we would get to these levels treasury is kind of uniquely out of it. you couldn't cancel the auction all of a sudden. when you parse powell, powell has been saying the same thing over and over again. we need six months, not two months, but six months, and that's a decent moment, interval, to measure inflation david, the one thing i would say is that during this period, it's going to continue to go his way if you look at the inputs. we have cpi next week and a lot of the inputs are very positive from powell but not enough time. he doesn't want to just say, hey, listen, we'll start cutting. but the stupid curve has been wrong for so long, and all we do is listen to how right the curve has been it's been so wrong >> so, what, the lags are lagging?

the lags >> yeah, the lags are lagging. >> all right >> that's good the forecast is the forecast >> as we watch members of our armed services, various members, for celebrating veterans day before remember when you used to be off veterans day? that was so right. we've given up on a lot of the days growing up where we used to commemorate. we used to talk about 11:00 is when world war i ended my grandfather was at pershing now everything's a rear guard action my own view. for what it's worth. i think it's a great -- you know we should remember people. not just the people who survived but everyone should go to arlington if they ever get a chance that's another place >> we got armed forces day, memorial day this is the one for veterans >> right, and i think it is -- i'm glad we're doing a moment of silence, and i'm glad that people remember because i think a lot of people have forgotten anything in history. >> we'll hear that moment of

silence about 20 past the hour meantime, jim, on the auction, a lot of forensic analysis on whether or not qt is in peril or if the fed starts managing the runoff balance pace. >> look, i think powell is -- i think powell is a lot -- first of all, i think he's a lot cooler than people realize, and he, unlike treasury, he knows the game he doesn't want to hurt -- look, he wants the economy to naturally slow down. he doesn't want to push it he doesn't -- he sees this going his way, and i think people underestimate exactly how powerful and tough powell is, and we actually, in an odd way, saw that yesterday >> yes, we did yes, we did. he's been faced a couple times now with some climate protesters, and apparently, yesterday, had had enough. >> yeah. look, you know, from the day he came in, i have had the ultimate respect. i've stood by him on every single thing other than that one moment where he kind of just said, we got to

keep being tough and didn't need to that was a rookie thing. but this guy is just on his game, and i think we should all respect him. he's a tough guy too i think people must think that he's a pushover or just a banker i've known him forever he's a great guy what can i say he's a great guy >> i know you're a big fan >> i am. i'm his number one fan >> great now he's got that to worry about. >> to your point, though, about things slowing, jim, we got deflation in china >> yes >> yields, core cpi has come down in six months new rents are negative used cars are negative that's half of our own cpi >> exactly >> is there any reason to be afraid of what he says being misled by head fakes >> well, i think that you could have, at any given moment, there can be a shock look at what goldman was saying about oil. turned out that oil's collapsing you know, the grain complex is collapsing that wasn't supposed to happen after ukraine.

we would have thought with the war in gaza that oil would be spiking. it's not demand there's a demand problem everywhere, and that is something that is going in powell's way the one thing we don't have is 4% unemployment. >> the other element today, at least, is looking at the aftereffects of this plug warning on going concern obviously, the wework bankruptcy some of the companies, jim, people argue are running out of money. >> well, look, i think we've all been struggling to see who owns this commercial real estate. we still have not been able to nail it down, but -- >> what do you mean by that? why do you say that? >> some of it's owned by banks some of it's owned by insurance companies. >> there is some opacity there sure >> opacity >> yes, there is >> that like bogacity? >> i don't know what that word means. >> it's not rot, it's slowdown when you look at -- i have had the two largest -- actually, i

have had all three companies that sell used cars, and i have had hertz. david, your used car is going down in value even as it sits in your driveway. >> yeah. that is true and it's funny you mention that, because i'm reading some comments here on the luxury side >> i see you, and i double you >> lvmh. let me read this to you. >> fire away, man. >> this is richemont ceo on the conference call. "i don't think the luxury goods industry will be using pricing as a tool over the next two years, and we are very, very glad that we did not use pricing like one or two of our competitors because today, customers remember and there is a reluctance some people increased the prices for similar products by 60 to 80% and i think today they may regret having done that. >> richemont, the way you show you're wealthy in china, you

can't have a mcmansion you have to wear jewelry they don't have -- some of these properties that are, like, what bezos bought in florida. >> jewelry seems to be hanging in there more than watches they're watched out. you can only wear so many. >> exactly you can't be, like, the upper sleeve diaggio preannounced they're blaming latin america. give me a break. they're really talking about north american hasn't come back yet. we're talking about crown royal, smirnoff vodka, what bond used to drink this is don julio, which is fantastic, but the gins, gordon gin, very bad, and yes, it's johnnie walker, and when i see these, what i say is, you always have to remember this. in the industry, clears and browns are dead. clears and browns are just going down and diageo is clear and browns

they do have casa migos. agave spirits, still doing well. but diageo, just like richemont, we're going to find out they're not doing well in the u.s., and they blame it on latam give me a break. and the caribbean. >> it's 11% of sales >> i'm still thinking about the other 89%. >> okay, but 11% is not insignificant if there's a significant slowdown for some reason >> yes, but i do think they reference north america as not being necessarily booming. >> no. >> diageo, boy, those companies, you know, when people don't realize that at one point, gin was the drink. you used to sell millions of cases and gin is just done >> what did billy joel sing? "making love to his tonic and gin. sign of the times in the '70s. speaking of decliners, we could do unity, trade desk,

ill illumina and plug. >> let's do them all wh whitehurst took no prisoners trade desk about auto, media, and inentertainment. there has been stabilization and they believe it was a transitory slo slowdown and the verticals we talked about, they are now seeing the machine crank cranking is otherwise normal again. no need to have a long-term reset by trade desk. boom buy it just buy it. plug is going concern. david, you know, when you got that going concern -- glowing concern -- it's not glowing. it's more of a going >> or not going. >> yeah, and they blame it on the -- >> should be a stopping concern, actually instead of calling it a going concern. >> multiple force majeurs. that's a new one for me. >> you had plug on >> i used to i stopped having them on when i

said, well, i can't -- if i have a guest on and every time they're on, the stock goes down, i find that a suboptimal situation. >> what happened can you give us a quick synopsis >> the balance sheet is not bad. they have this one runaway plant in the southeast that seems like it's just costing too much money. they're blaming some sort of hydrogen thing that no one else has a problem with air products -- aerodynamics is bad too. you talk to lindy. there's no problem with hydrogen >> it is a difficult period for those companies that need to consume capital to continue to fund their business. >> vulnerable clime. >> just in general, given where rates are. we know that look at some of these automakers >> but andy is from the -- >> look at lucid or even rivian >> lucid reminds me of lucent. >> how much capital they're going to need to consume to a

point where they can make money. >> how's fisker doing? >> fisker is not making money on each vehicle i can imagine that's not the case >> we've seen a virtual collapse of anything ev, and we all kind of hesitate to say it because we're rooting for the environment versus against the environment, but evs, any aspect of evs >> it goes beyond that driverless cruise, now suspended. >> i was in that car i wasn't frightened. i was feeling good >> there's $8 billion in losses in six years ron baron talking about tesla this morning on "squawk", particularly as it pertains to china. here's what he said. >> i think the relations they have with china are exceptionally good they're -- both people are getting something from it, and i think that business will continue to grow, but he's going to open plants all around the world for low-cost cars and wait until you see what's going to happen when all of a sudden they start selling cars instead of for $40,000 apiece, for $25,000 apiece, which is going to happen in a year, year and a half from

their new model. the new model, they think, is going to do 5 million cars a year five million cars a year for the model 2. that's coming. >> well, i mean, not if shawn fain has anything to do with it. i mean, you know, we got president biden -- now, david -- >> ron baron is an unrepentant bull >> i like tesla. >> in the past, he's said these outrageous things that ended up being pretty close to true >> in the rate environment that we were just talking about, right? >> well, i think that when we think about what the president's doing and how he's lined up with shawn fain, and he's talking about, i want fain to unionize tesla. that's an unusual posture for a president to take. >> it is, it is. >> he literally put on the uaw shirt. >> put on a shirt. doesn't seem to be helping him with the electorate at all not quite sure maybe you want to change your strategy there who knows? >> it seems the -- the guy wants to be the union president. i didn't think that he necessarily wanted to run a

union. i think that shawn fain -- if president biden wanted to run the uaw while he's also president, fine. you know, the ford guys, when biden was on the picket line, they were shocked. they thought that biden came to try to negotiate a good deal they didn't realize that biden came to be able to walk the picket line. >> i don't think it was -- came as a surprise to me, right >> he considers himself that >> fain did. if you talk to auto executives in the spring, they were like, who is this guy? i don't know barely won a majority. what's the deal? well, he turned out to be the most powerful force in labor since walter reuther >> speaking of the president, we do have news regarding china today. first, the treasury secretary and china's vice premier are set to meet again today ahead of the apex summit where biden and xi are now expected to hold talks eamon javers has the latest this morning. >> good morning, carl. we do now know the date of that

next joe biden-xi jinping meeting. it will be on wednesday, november 15th, in the san francisco bay area they're not giving us a very specific locator other than that we've been seeing this increased diplomatic activity in the run-up to that meeting, though as you say, treasury secretary janet yellen welcomed the chinese vice premier to california yesterday and sought to set a calming tone, even as relations between the two countries have reached what may be a low point in decades. >> the united states has no desire to decouple from china. a full separation of our economies would be economically disastrous for both of our countries and for the world. >> so, you saw what janet yellen had to say there the united states has no desire to decouple from china she says a full separation of our economies would be economically disastrous for both countries. she also cited the intensive economic diplomacy that has taken place over the past year,

beginning with the first meeting of presidents biden and xi a year ago in bali and her own travel to beijing this summer. in recent weeks, vice ministerial level, economic, and financial working groups between the chinese ministry of finance have held meetings yellen said they would talk about climate change, debt distress in low-income countries and what she called the use of economic tools for national security purposes, so all of that sets up the meeting in san francisco next week between biden and xi i'll be there covering the event. xi jinping is going to have a dinner with some of america's top ceos that's coming up on wednesday night, and there will be some fascinating diplomatic body language to watch at that dinner in san francisco next week, guys back to you, carl. >> that's going to be a big event, eamon sounds like there are some contentious issues on the table as well. we look forward to that. when we come back, a moment

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11th month, the armistice with germany. >> this is how school taught you about what happened in world war i and world war ii, and i just find we don't have those holidays now, and i just think that this was a day where my father would tell me that they had civil war vets come to speak at his elementary school >> let's get the moment of violence moment of silence.

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let's get to a "mad dash" as we count down to an opening bell for the final trading session of the week salesforce is a name i think you know a little bit about. >> there's some people who write on wall street dan ives, we think, fun.

tony is fun. i think he's thoughtful and cerebral he has a piece called, from bernstein, "how many times can you say a.i. we counted." this is about who has hype and who has reality. nvidia is number one, and we can talk about nvidia all day. but when he counted them up, the number two, the silver medal was, oh, we gave it away >> yeah, we did. >> salesforce. and what i think is amazing about this, david, is that tony points out that it's kind of just a less direct relationship than, say, maybe microsoft, maybe meta, maybe alphabet he puts it up there with hpe, dell, and service now as companies that have have really tried to affiliate themselves with a.i. that he doesn't think necessarily have the touch of a.i. >> what does that mean what are they -- how are they using -- we say a.i. a.i. has been around for a long time so, the big shift has been generative a.i >> yes >> are we talking old a.i. or

generative a.i.? >> this is -- it would be a mixture, but what they use it for is, let's say you want to do a sales document you want to do a mortgage document you can get the language that you need salesforce will do that. and all they do is see what the standard is and plug it in also helps for customers, anything that makes it so that you know the answer. both companies -- both service now and salesforce actually do a lot of a.i., but you're right. i mean, is it the kind of thing where -- if you want to summarize something, you can easily summarize, and they can do that too. this is not the kind of nvidia, trillions of pieces instantly and you can do it. but it does -- it works. >> it works. that's important stock hasn't really been working lately >> right here, they report enough not a surprise the stock goes up immediately, and the same day, literally goes back down, and it's been drifting down ever since and then started picking up today. but when you think about, you know, a.i. and their einstein,

you can ask it questions like, i have to make a proposal to insurance companies. tell me what insurance companies are focused on and how much it matters at that moment, pricing for blah, blah, blah insurer that helps you if you want to go pitch. remember, a lot of salesforce is about pitching >> all right we got music playing you hear it, right that means we got to go. we got an opening bell to get to four minutes from now. and by the way, if you didn't remember, you can always catch us any time and anywhere by listening to and following the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcas t. hello. it is so fantastamazing for me to see other trolls. is this how people feel when they meet me? yes. poppy, i'm your sister. my what? whoo. did you just braid my hair?

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. take a look at the week to date as we've worked through this chop last few sessions, jim. we could end up with another weekly gain on the s&p if we get 12 points. >> you know, when i was thinking about it, i did a piece yesterday, i didn't want us to be that ten s&p. that would take us back really far to a halcyon period where people were not critical enough. i thought we actually needed to cool off we needed to shake out people

who really feel, oh, this is -- this was just a bear market rally. they have to go. they can't make it to the promised land. that's what happened we had a real rally, you have a cause like this, shakes people out and then you start again and that's what i think is going to happen i think it's real. not a bear market rally. it's a real rally. >> let's get the opening bell and get friday under way at the big board, general randy george, u.s. army chief of staff, and members of the armed forces commemorating veterans day. >> usa, usa, usa >> at the nasdaq, it's biotech compan cargo therapeutics that's nice. >> we have soldiers on tonight we have armed forces, west point. we went to air force academy a few years ago. why not celebrate those who

serve? geez what an incredible thing, these people volunteer >> especially in this uncertain world, jim keeping us safe, keeping the country safe >> i mean, we read, you know, there's a base in syria, and it's being attacked. we sent a submarine here or there. we project power david, if there's anything that we're really good at, i think that it's what we're looking at. >> yeah, a lot of people do come back to our military as a point of pride in a world in which can be hard to find sometimes, without a doubt. and i know your experience is similar to mine. whenever i meet similar members of the military, i'm incelly impressed, not just with their broad knowledge and decision making and critical thinking it's just fascinating. >> my father met a general before one of his landings, and it was one of those things that was, like, it was like shakespeare in "king henry iv" and he said, hey, soldier, you

have a significant and he left, and someone said, that was general walter kruger, the head of the sixth army that's what would happen he didn't go to west point, general kruger, and he was the people's general he ran the sixth army so well. we forget how these titans are not remembered no one remembers general kruger, one of the most important people in world war ii. >> that sends a chill. this biden-xi summit, they're going to tackle all kinds of things according to the wires today. a.i., taiwan, the middle east. >> well, taiwan, there's a lot of talk again that they're still trying to -- there's an election coming and they want to influence the party that used to be the party of an opposition to china, but i do think that they're out there doing things i was listening to kyle bass this morning saying how much they go back on decisions. the one difference here is that the thing they need more than anything else in the world is nvidia chips

we saw one out that apparently got them because those are the capability of being weaponized i know they want them, and they want taiwan semi, and we gave up -- we, being america, give in or don't protect taiwan semi, we're fools. we're just fools >> there is hope somehow that after this meeting between xi and biden, that it will unlock the antitrust review of vmware, which we've talked about a number of times. >> i'm hearing that, too, by the way. >> that's a hope and a dream we'll see if it becomes a reality. >> you want to speak about it? it's so on the firing line >> vmware is interesting because investors made an election weeks ago about how stock or cash they wanted and they're stuck in that election while they wade for this deal to close, being told by hock tan, who runs broadcom, that it will close very soon it's clearly political it seems 100% due, as much as i can tell, to the new

restrictions on nvidia chips that were announced with immediacy, by the way, of a few weeks ago. the question simply becomes, jim, do the chinese relent because, what are they gaining from not allowing this deal to close? it's unclear, anything other than just saying, you know what? we're not going to allow it to close the day after -- i think it was literally that close. you put this new ban on nvidia chips. >> brutal. >> but people are waiting. investors are waiting. michael dell is waiting. >> right right. >> he's a huge owner here. >> you said clearly political, but you know hock tan is saying otherwise. >> he's saying otherwise that is not what i am hearing. i have a couple people who send people over to china, at least met with the lawyers the government won't meet with people their takeaway certainly is that, of course it's political of course it is. >> i was just putting out what hock says. i agree with you >> i don't think -- he may -- listen >> can we have -- >> the problem is nobody knows anything

that's all it's unknowable. >> something we agree with, illumina can't make its numbers to save its life this thing is "they shoot horses, don't they?" it's unbelievable. this is equipment for the most up to date biotech that you need to get drugs approved and they don't have the horses, man wow. look at that >> yeah. and remember, carl icahn got involved there in a significant way, managed to get -- replace the ceo. they made a lot of poor decisions, including going against regulators here, there, and everywhere and not listening and now having to divest i mean, the whole thing has been a mess >> it's real too >> jim, they can't seem to execute on the basic stuff either >> i want to go to where you were yesterday i want to go directly to two things that you just did with unbelievable malone stuff. one, warner bros. discovery, thinking through ebitda 2024, and two, the incredible moment

where malone said that maybe google paid too much for the nfl. >> he believes that they did >> but that's brilliant. that then explains why on the call they were so incoherent when asked directly by michael nathanson. they were, like, the nfl likes it, which of course, means, basically, we overpaid >> we gave them a lot of money >> the malone thing. why are people honest? why did malone come on and say what he feels? >> john always says what he feels and goes in all sorts of different directions we were able to air a good amount of the interview last night. there are also parts that will be available on our cnbc pro now. it's an hour and 11-minute interview, so we hit a lot of things that still haven't seen the light of day news corp. reported, it's worth mentioning, there was this funny back-and-forth i had with malone

about rupert murdoch, who's now stepped down as chair, but malone stays in touch with murdoch, who, obviously, he had a lot of dealings with, both positive and negative through the years, but apparently, they're talking about ranching take a listen. >> yeah, and amazing, he hasn't lost a step. he's amazing >> even though he's stepped down >> yeah, but in terms of his intellect, his interest, you know, he's become a rancher, you know, in montana >> taking after you. >> when i talk to him, that's what he wants to talk about is how many tons of hay does it take to carry cow through the winter, you know >> really? >> yeah. >> how many tons of hay does it take >> well, it depends on the elevation. >> who knew? >> very climate-related. >> interesting >> there, where he is, probably two and a half tons. >> you learn things you never expect two and a half tons to take a cow through the winter, but it does depend on elevation >> i thought he was going to be

a pirate >> excuse me >> i thought when murdoch retired, he would be a pirate. like, "succession," the pirate best scene in succession quesin our newsroom >> jeff smith, you're notgoing to get active here because they control the vote at news, but they -- few weeks ago, they announced a position there they want to see potentially some of these assets involving real estate, monetized, stocks down, though you can see news corp. shares are down after reporting numbers this morning don't have a lot on that >> i'm looking at the semis that are just raging here, led by taiwan semi, and the semiconductor capital equipment companies, lam, they're just going crazy here on the other hand, people thought that meta would be down. meta was down 2.5% when trade desk reported last night and said there was weakness in

october. trade desk is coming back, but meta's up. i mean, geez, this rally's powerful >> we do have morgan stanley with a 100-page report on the smartphone business. >> i needed -- i was going to -- i chatgpt'ed that. >> they do some survey work on upgrade sbintentions they think that, plus a.i. silicon and a.i. hardware are going to give you back-to-back shipment growth for the first time in ten years, almost. >> let's not forget there's a pc cycle refresh to end all cycle refreshes. david, that's going to be positive for dell. >> yeah. >> for hp. >> yeah. >> but i'm even going to say that it could be good for intel. >> which is the -- the leading dow component at the moment. >> yep even though moore's law is dead, according to nvidia, looks like the -- you get the invite to the intel christmas party? >> i did >> everybody got -- >> oh, everybody did >> everybody got it. i'm definitely not going

>> i thought i was the only one then >> no. i don't -- >> holiday season. >> i got something else to do. >> you got to talk to people >> turns out i'm jammed that day. i got a funeral. >> who wants to talk to anybody? >> i know. >> it's kind of them to think of us, guys >> it was. >> exactly >> very nice >> very kind >> pat gelsinger, thank you for that as you can see, we're all very enthusiastic >> i have lisa su's holiday party that day it hasn't been set yet she isn't even having one, but i'm going to be there. >> you are i got a couple things to hit here >> what do you got >> well, tko >> oh. >> vince mcmahon selling a lot of stock stock's down 8%. this is the recent merging of ufc and world wrestling and it gave him liquidity sold 8.4 million shares at $79.80 that was last night. >> did eric check off on that?

>> apparently, it's estate planning linda mcmahon, he's 78, they want the money, and so, he's got -- still got two-thirds of his shares, but it's a big sale. and it comes, obviously, while endeavor, which controls 51% of tko, is in its own sale process, potentially, to its 71% vote, owner, silver lake, not a lot of updates there. but that should move quickly as we've said my understanding is that there is now a special committee that likely has hired a bank. i want to check that, though, but that just gives you a sense of progress. silver lake has yet to come and make an offer is my understanding. they're waiting. but that will happen company has their own banker, and then it's pretty simple. all right, what do you think endeavor is worth? by the way, then all these other investors are going to make a decision as to whether to roll key question is also, given the equity check, how much help

silver lake will have? bottle is one name that's been around as potential investor as well we're keeping an eye on that, jim, on not just tko, which is down on those sales, given where they took place and how large they are and the volume per day that is involved in 8.4 million shares, but also on endeavor and whether they can get a significant premium to the ipo price. >> you know who's in this mix is strauss zelnick and take two, because they have these great video games. there are people who feel that "nba 2k" is not strong. i would point out, the greatest entertainment franchise of all time is "grand theft auto. since then, nvidia has moved the ball so rapidly that we are going to have the nonplayer, could be, the nonplayers in the game can talk to you like "free guy." >> they can talk to you? >> yeah, they'll be able to talk to you that's what we're hearing.

>> did strauss talk about this last night >> this is something i'm hearing from nvidia. he did say that it's possible that there could be some people who can be programmed with not, by the way, with not like, "good morning, how are you" but like, "carl, good to see you again. this would be electric and make it so that i think the -- this was not confirmed by strauss i want to make clear that. but this is one of the things that i think is going to be the refresh of all time, and i think that this stock is incredibly undervalued, given the fact that "grand theft auto" is going to be out next year >> elsewhere in media, you got "the journal's" piece about disney you got the warner-netflix discounted bundle story. you've got netflix -- >> verizon fios potentially offering that. >> you've got jpmorgan going to $5.10. netflix on this ad tier. >> the ad tier, strauss only talked about the ad tier in his conference call, whether they

should have ads in the video games, and he said, people don't really want that i think at a certain point, you're going to have to have an ad tier that's -- you want to make it a little more intrusive to get eyeballs, but netflix doesn't want to do that. unobtrusive targeted ads that you might like what would be an ad that you might like, david? >> i don't know. i can't imagine an ad i would like >> you can't >> well, i could imagine i don't want to imagine. >> no. but meanwhile, it's the semis' day. what can i say it's a semi day. >> can we talk about weight loss drugs for a moment as well >> whatever you say, david >> what do you mean, there's not a lot to say >> no, i said, whatever you say. i didn't say there's not a lot to say i'm not interested in what you say. what did you say this weekend is the american heart association in philadelphia >> thank you, thank you. >> in philadelphia >> we are going to get -- >> it's bye week >> the full report from novo in terms of all the data.

scott gottlieb, a guest earlier on "squawk box," very informative. >> on the board of lumina and pfizer >> i want to talk about pfizer in a second. but this is key to payers. this is key to whether you get health insurers. lilly shares were down yesterday. >> the worst day of the year for ibb. >> it was down 4.6%, and one of the reasons why is that people say, look, astrazeneca is working on a pill form no kidding that's ridiculous. i thought that the eli lilly interview that morgan did was dispositive about why you wanted to be in eli lilly i know that novo is building a $5 billion plant, but there's room for everyone. this is not unlike the great cholesterol moment where you had merck leading and then out of nowhere, warner lambert came out of nowhere >> lipitor, there's been a generic for many years >> i like regeneron. i like the amgen drug for cholesterol, repatha, which is

remarkable, which we realize any close cholesterol is probably bad for you. >> we're waiting on the sea gen deal you scared a lot of people in pfizer last friday night, what'd you say on "mad money" >> what? i just said -- >> did you say something about the deal >> i like sea gen. >> you think it's going to close? >> no, it's really important no, i said that i don't know where the ftc is >> well, let me give you an update from what i hear. >> i did not say anything bad about boland i did not. >> we've been waiting for pfizer to come into compliance and they haven't yet done it. my understanding now is, according to people familiar with the situation, maybe the next three to four weeks for compliance they certainly seem to be taking their time there does not seem to be a concern that they will be sued by the ftc, but who knows?

you may have seen that elizabeth warren letter yesterday about horizon and amgen. she's still fighting that battle >> amgen needed that it was only fair >> just talking broadly about big deals. but they are now talking about this being a more likely 2024 close for the deal itself. >> pfizer needs this they have made a series of acquisitions, and none of them has met the -- what people thought the numbers could be but i thing that sea gen has been an undermanaged company and they have a cancer franchise that's second only to merck, but it needs money it needs money.have a cancer fr second only to merck, but it needs money. it needs money >> pfizer has no juju or mojo. >> this has taken longer to get to the finish line i had reported weeks ago, by the way, because i was being told, at least on the seagen side, that they thought they would be in compliance very quickly or soon that was incorrect, and we're still waiting for that second request, certified once you do that, then the clock

starts >> what would possibly be -- since there is virtually no cancer franchise at pfizer, what is the overlap that would make it so that there should even be a request? >> jim, you don't need an overlap. if it's big, lina khan is going to give it a hard look >> just, enough already. >> doesn't mean they're going to get sued in fact, you expect they will. >> well, dr. borla is going to win on that one. i didn't say anything negative about dr. borla. i said that the ftc could put the kibosh on a deal that makes tons of sense. >> sounds like tapestry and capri are getting a second look as well. >> you're kidding me >> that was earlier in the week. >> talk about something the american people have to worry about. right? yeah, we got to get that we got to get that jimmy chu, david. jimmy chu, that's exactly what we -- >> do not want -- don't want to corner the market on jimmy chus. that could be big trouble. >> you know what this is, david? any the american consumer. >> that's your foot in a jimmy

chu. >> mimicking of toe cleavage >> that's right. >> i went to the milan fashion show quick reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investing club with jim, find out more about toes go to cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on the screen. as we go to break, we'll watch bonds. the ten-year came into the week at 4.58% and we might go out almost exactly at that level, despite all the chop that we have seen in the past, say, 72 hours. back in a minute

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it will be reconfigured. boston was weak. down a little bit, but they say because of tunnel construction it's true. >> we'll watch that. one of several labor deals we've gotten put together in the last couple weeks. >> lately. i mean, i've got to tell you in this particular case, the people telling it are ill informed. >> we'll watch that. stop trading with jim after a break. -unentered sick time? -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -when you can take this phone, you'll be ready. -make the unnecessary, unnecessary. let your employees do their own payroll. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> corteva, a couple defenses, sell overdone by deutsche bank the complex here, corteva, fmc, adco, any of the fertilizers, these are all collapsing, and what that says there's a bumper crop everywhere in the world this is going jay powell's way if there's one thing he has not -- he doesn't -- doesn't need to shut the door on, it's the ag group. >> kind of like pork bellies in china. >> oh, my. i have to tell you, this group is so -- if you're not seeing a break soon go to costco. they will pass it on okay they will. i don't know who else will but this is a remarkable decline in the complex throughout the world.

food is getting cheaper and should be reflected in the supermarkets soon. >> tonight >> i did cotev va and now it's coterra. tom jordan is the deal, with scott sheffield going off because of exxon, tom is the man, understand natural gas and oil better than anyone i got salute to the troops tonight. we'll have some younger people joining the military and i just think that you can't do enough to try to help and support people who are in the military because they are why we are able to have our lives where we can do this stuff. >> well said, jim. we'll see you tonight. >> thank you. >> "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time when we come back,mi uch, one of the last data points of the week don't go anywhere. the distance! alright, you about ready to get out? what's this? a hospital bill?! for a thousand bucks?! gaaaap! did this goat just say 'gap'? he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and leslie picker, live at post nine of the new york stock exchange sara eisen has the morning off markets still trying to get a second weekly gain here. the dow needs another 100 points or so, but s&p and nasdaq have that put together at the moment

as treasuries are well behaved in light of the weak 30-year auction and comments out of powell. >> the movers don't reflect the broader index's declines on specific stocks here 30 minutes into the trading session, here are those movers we are watching. shares of hydrogen fuel cell company plug power plunging double digits down 34% after a slew of downgrades from the street this morning. quarterly results missed expectation and they pulled guidance after unprecedented supply challenges. shares of digital advertising company trade desk slumping today guidance came in light there, despite a solid quarter, down about 18.5%. watch wynn shares today, also, yes n the red, after a key measure of macao operating profits came in below expectations revenue at its boston harbor property were lower than the same period last year. those shares down 8.8%. getting consumer sentiment

data a couple moments ago. back to rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. november preliminary are reads on university of michigan sentiment. headline number expected to be a bit under 64 it's under 61. 60.4, weakest since may of this year, and current conditions at 65.7, also the weakest since may of this year we're looking for a number north of 70. if we look at expectations what may lie ahead, we're looking for a number 61, 61.5. 56.9 you guessed it, that is also the weakest level going back to may of this year let's get to one-year inflation, expected 4%, up 4.4% so let's look at this. if you look at where we were in september, it was 3.2. last month 4.2 that means we went from a

six-month low to two and a half year high in one month we're moving up to 4.4 which remains a comp going back to april but it's awfully interesting, 2 1/2 year low, six-month high in a couple month period look at the five to ten-year rate kicking up from 3% to 3.2 boy, 3.2, you have to go back all the way to may and june of 2008 to find a higher number than 3.2, which would be 3.4 but to be fair, we equalled 3.2 in march of 2011 there's been several 3.2s, but these are hot on inflation, cool on growth, and we see that interest rates, well, they're all down on the session, outside of 20 and 30-year all maturities are up on the week carl, back to you. >> thank you rick santelli. meantime the fed chair warning of the fed's fight

against inflation is not over and that future rate hikes are still on the table as comments come on the back of the disappointing auction yesterday. st. steve liesman covered that in detail. >> carl, it was a wake-up call for the market that two potent risks that are out there a further rate hike and challenge of financing the government's massive debt haven't gone away with a stern talking to by the fed chair and sloppy 30-year auction and what some saw as tough talk from powell about the possibility of future rate hikes. he said the fed would not hesitate to hike further could cause the fed to move and the fed is not confident it's at the, quote, sufficiently restrictive level for rates. some of what he said he said before, but fed watchers like chris from evercore ifi said the speech represented a sterner tone, maybe not a change in policy he said, quote, we do not interpret this as representing a substantive shift in policy

signaling as opposed to a tone correction and do not, for instance, see serious efforts to put a december hike back in play it's kind of how the market took it futures markets raised the outlook for another hike but remain low in january of 16% still the message was received a bit more forcefully in the stock market, after the treasury auction of 30-year bonds was not well received. the bond market seemed to be having a better time today, though, digesting the issuance with the long-term bond out of the way for a couple weeks now, all that tees up the inflation data next week as the markers for where the rates will be headed and our interview at 1:00 p.m. with san francisco fed president mary daly. leslie, rest easy this weekend doesn't get easier next week. >> it doesn't. we can look forward to that interview. i'm sure you have lots of questions for her. thank you, steve. that's also a great place to

start with our next guest, moody's chief economist mark zandsedy, says dangers to the economy appear less threatening at these levels. thanks for being here. just quickly on powell's talk yesterday, there was some suggestion that hawkish tone was a result of loosening market conditions namesly the yields declining over the past few weeks. do you think that's part of it there? >> yeah. that's my interpretation we saw the stock market rally and financial conditions ease and chair powell wanted to make sure financial markets don't get ahead of themselves. feels good where inflation expectations are and doesn't want to change that. i think his speech was more strategic in that sense than anything else. >> in terms of kind of specific metrics they may watch to raise fratsz here, how high of a bar do you think that needs to be? a slight tick up in inflation, a

substantial tick up in inflation? >> you know, leslie, i think it's inflation expectation is very important here. if inflation ticks up because we have owneil prices up and gasol with it, no big deal if it's deemed to be temporary if bond investors start marking up their expectations for future inflation, i think that's when the fed goes on high alerts and raises rates the other indicator related is wage growth. if consumers, workers, start to think inflation is going to be higher and demand higher wages and getting it, the fed would be nervous as well. inflation expectations and wage growth are at the things they're looking at to gauge whether they should raise rates or. >> the we've seen resolutions from the uaw strike, the writers strike, actors strike, vegas strike threats seem to be resolved here. do you think ultimately those will turn out to be inflationary

events >> they're symptomatic of a tight labor market and the strong wage growth we're getting. not by themselves, no. the fact that they got resolved in reasonably short order of time and reasonably amicably indicates, you know, that labor markets are working well here. the key in the labor market is really the quit rate, the percent of the folks throughout working that are convict their jobs when you have a lot of people quitting that's when wage growth is strong. feels like the labor market is easing up pretty much on cue. >> mark, you know, there's always a certain component of the sort of financial community that's worried about deficits and debt and has been for years and warning the end is coming. it feels as though it's ticked up a bit lately, national debt $34 billion, $2 trillion deficits possible, interest costs rising as we need to refinance a good amount over the next few years

you've spoken about these issues, what are your thoughts on sort of the latest chorus that seems to have a few more voices in it >> yeah. i think it's a problem, david. our fiscal issues are front and center one thing when interest rates are low and rates are 2% on a 10-year treasury yield you can run deficits and higher debt loads and service stays down, but now that rates are up and headed north, we don't have that luxury anymore we have to address our fiscal situation and, you know, just a statistic, we're going to spend more on interest expense, interest on the debt, than pay on defense in the not too distant future we need to think about this. i think bond investors are attune to it you can feel it. yesterday's auction was as steve said was sloppy and we'll get more sloppy ones if we don't address our long-term fiscal

situation. throw in dysfunction in washington and how will lawmakers get this together? it's a reason for nervousness for sure. >> that was my follow-up question, what do you think they do how do you raise revenue revenue right now is even coming in lower than might have been anticipated. do you have to raise taxes this does figure. >> -- fig into what you as an economist have to do >> i don't think they will do anything between now and the election it's going to be what it's going to be. on the other side of the election a foergs point in early '25 because we have to raise the tebts limit, trump tax cuts for high income households expire, all these things come together and that will force a decision you know, reminds me, i'm going to box this, but winston churchhill said something to the effect americans try everything and then they ultimately do the right thing. that's not exactly right but kind of roughly right. i'm hoping we're trying desperately not to do the right

thing, but we'll be forced to do it. >> that's a glass half full take right there. i see you say the most significant threat in the coming year is the 2024 election. sticking with washington, we had the senator manchin news yesterday, current polling, how does all of that inform your view about what's in store over the next 365 or so days until the next election? >> yeah. that really does worry me, leslie i mean, you know, it feels like it's going to be really close election under any scenario. it's going to be contested and, you know, the potential for that kind of boiling over, i think, is pretty high. i worry about that as we lead up to this time next year that's front and center. i did want to point out and put a stake in the ground out there for you, i don't know if you want to go down the road, it does feel like to me the financial system, particularly the nonbank part of the system, you know, private equity, private credit what's going on in the treasury market, liquidity, another stress point could turn intop an earthquake

given higher for longer. something we need to watch for 2024. >> absolutely. it has been drawing more attention in the nonfinancial bank sector. thank you very much. appreciate it. as we head to break our road map for the hour including the let down in luxury as we head into the crucial holiday shopping season. another high-profile name reporting weak numbers and what it's saying about the high-end consumer. >> eli lilly gets approval for its weight loss drug and we are expecting big news out of novo nordisk on its drug in terms of at least its effect on the heart. what's at stake for both of those stocks we'll talk about that. >> why retail investors falling out of favor with the meme stock craze and a more lazy way to invest we'll explain. .

on the one hand if you're running a major pharmaceutical company you have to pay attention to this category and it's probably malpractice not to consider investing in obesity given the opportunity ahead. on the other hand i think lilly is a leader here, and we plan to make it hard to be caught. >> that was eli lilly's ceo on "closing bell: overtime" yesterday discussing the

company's push further into weight loss drugs after the fda approved the new drug in the category zepbound and expecting important news from novo nordisk this weekend regarding, of course, its weight loss drugs, wegovy and ozempic's diabetes, but you get the picture. here to break it down for us, health care sector, senior analyst at mizuho jared holtz. good to have you. >> thank you. >> this weekend, we got the headline number about a 20% reduction in cardiac or cardiovascular benefit, 20%, but what are we expecting from novo? >> david, i think it's going to be more of the same. i think we'll get more detail on just what those numbers look like we got the headline data a couple months ago, and we'll get more of a breakdown, patient populations, some details with respect to cardiac death, with respect to a couple other, you know, comorbidities associated with having obesity or heavy weight, and we're going to break it down from there

it's going to be more of the same, more on the fringe and we can tell whether these drugs will get labels added to them, expanded populations over time. >> and importantly, i would assume, as well, the possibility or likelihood that they get covered by insurance >> they willget covered. they should get covered. i think all the data has been spectacular. not only weight loss but a lot of other cuts to various other medical conditions if they can show heart failure is reduced and cardiac death over time would be huge. i don't know if we're going to see statistical significance with respect to that, but if we see separation with respect to the curves, if you're on the drug versus not, if there is some sort of cardiac death benefit they can show separates over time, i think that's pretty powerful these are long-term benefits you're not going to see these health benefits come immediately after being on the drugs for a couple of months but i think the insurance companies have to consider what the benefits are here. >> all right

let's talk about the stocks themselves because, of course, both novo and lilly are up this year has that big move already taken place based on the expectations for what these drugs will mean to those companies and what would be a catalyst for a further move higher? >> i think so. 45% for novo, over 60 for lilly, these are insane, versus pharma which has been scorched earth all year and years prior you've seen massive separation with respect to these versus the peer group i think cardiac death, if you see a benefit there, you could see these stocks go up even more if there's statistical significance with respect to other pieces of the select trial, potentially higher. there are really no easy stories in health care except for this when generalists and nonhealth care investors look at the entire sector they see this story and it's very easy to understand, easy to decipher i think the stocks can head higher if they show better data than we think.

>> how constrained are they at this point given the overarching demand and competitive picture out there? >> it's interesting. novo made an announcement expanding capacity by $6 billion. obviously, they're gunning for it i think it's an issue. more logistically inclined than anything else, but i think long term, they'll kind of figure it out. we're going to enter some stage, hopefully in the next couple years, with oral pills once that happens, i think, you know, some of the supply constraints that are -- that we see with the injectables will be diminished and we can take pills much asier. >> that is what was mentioned earlier in the week. why can't stocks benefit even if they are a couple years behind >> they can. you'll hear more noise, more headlines from azn as they take that drug through phase two, phase three. it's early obviously, getting in the game is a big deal and then pfizer has oral data next year, lilly working on a program bringing something into phase three as we

see. novo is already there. we'll see how this whole thing plays out. that's where the next iteration of the story goes. >> anybody else going to be able to compete here beyond lilly and novo or to his point, you know, earlier do they have too big a lead >> i think the lead is pretty big, especially in the injectable market. the oral market probably changes things you'll see lilly and novo lead there for a couple years versus anybody else am again's program has kind of like fall be an little bit they made comments on their previous earnings call they're having issues with their injectable pfizer and azn are the other two companies to consider. this is a two to three-year lead for sure. >> in technology the narrative is the ai spend is crowding out other spend. is there an analog to this and weight loss and the rest of health care biotech? >> i think so. i think the rest of the sector is confounding i think it's complex

i think you have this market, which is pretty obvious to everyone, walk outside, you see hundreds of people a day that should probably be on the drug or would benefit from it easy to understand i think so i think as far as the narratives go in health care, this is by far the easiest one to kind of get your head around, especially if you're not in the weeds with the science. it's kind of, you know, thematically pretty simple. >> lot of fat people, and they need to get skinny. >> that's right. >> i don't know why -- >> that's your -- right there. >> sometimes you want to put a tag on it. >> thank you bitcoin touching its highest levels in over a year and another big crypto etf is in the rks. more on that next. "squawk on the street" is back after this help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare

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maintain our financial strength and stability. and deliver solutions that meet complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. bitcoin continues its strong campaign in '23. the crypto currency touching 18-month highs dominic chu is tracking that action. >> carl, so crypto currencies have had a banner week as you point out here prices for the two biggest out there, bitcoin and ethereum up

massively over the course of the last week, and ethereum right now is catching this big bit over the last couple days. you can see here as we get word that world's biggest asset manager, black rock, filed to list an etf backed by spot ethereum on the nasdaq exchange at some point, stoking more optimism the markets could see greater access and institutional liquidity brought on on a regulated exchange ether prices did hit over $2,000 per token, 2,088 and change. levels we haven't seen since april. if you kind of go all the way back to the april high here, that was roughly just around 2124 that's an idea for reference where we've seen this year we've seen the big rise, as carl points out n bitcoin prices over the last couple weeks, due in part to this idea of optimism about a potential regulated exchange rated product tied to bitcoin at the offering some time at the not too distance future black rock is the name being

floated around for one of the bitcoin exchange traded funds brought to market. as a result here, we are seeing some of the companies tied to crypto, coinbase, robinhood, upside here on the day so far, 2.5% gains there, and micro strategy holds bitcoin as an asset, the gray scale bitcoin trust importance particular vehicle by which some gain access to crypto, it's rising today. keep an eye over what's happening. crypto currencies are still around and for some reason, there is a lot of optimism being brought about by this idea of exchange traded funds part of the picture going forward. send things back over. >> dom, thank you. dominic chu. shares of rich month are dropping on the back of its quarterly results. the latest name in the luxury industry to show what may be signs of a slowdown. robert frank is here helping us sort of navigate this because there have been a lot of data points that seem to indicate slowdown, but every so often you get something that says wait a second, not sure. >> a lot of cross currents here.

look at richemont, sales growth of 5%, a big drop from the previous quarter of 19%. growth in the jewelry division includes cartier, that slowed to 9% not bad, watches took a big hit and declined by 4% their watch brands like iwc, verbron, they're falling fast compared to the exclusive privately held brands like rolex. richemont chairman rupert saying it's no surprise to us the market will slow down across all asset classes because that's the purpose of interest rate hikes he said he had hoped for abig recovery in china. that fading as, quote, there is a bit of caution by chinese consumers. all this, david, is part of an emerging split in luxury very top of the market you look at hermes the lower excessive luxury is struggling as the middle and

upper middle income buyers dropped out. even hermes down on possible concerns of broadening weakness. it's only the very top that's doing okay, so maybe - >> hermes reported decent numbers. >> decent numbers and the stock, even though under pressure a little bit today, has held up much better. the assumption there is most of their consumers are truly wealthy and doing okay, whereas the more aspirational culture consumer with these other brands are not. >> kind of reminds me of a period where we used to talk about an industry, multiple industries, trying to make americans feel like the 1% private aviation, one example, and you've seen the wheels come off of that to a degree as well. >> yeah. wheels up. >> you're right, carl. it was this era of accessible luxury and you had these brands moving down market trying to get entry-level consumers and that did work for a while when everyone had excess savings to splurge, especially the 2021 and

2020. that's fading. you have a more discerning customer. >> china, you, obviously, mentioned it how important is it to the overall ecosystem in terms of their ability to buy or keep buying >> it's huge remember, prepandemic, even 2020, 2021, there was the assumption china would account for more than half of all global luxury sales now it's down to about 30% they're saying maybe it gets up to 35, 40, but this hope that china would surpass the u.s. as a luxury market and dominate global luxury spending as a majority of spending is fading these companies like lvmh, richemont, that made big investments in china are rethinking and refocusing back on the u.s >> and in terms of the impact from higher interest rates, it's more of that accessible luxury band in which would feel more of ap effect there because in theory those consumers are putting those purchases on credit is that kind of the thinking there? >> the more discretionary the

purchase, the people are just using the money to buy necessities now and so we're seeing that in the watch market, any secondary brand that's not rolex is falling. >> finally we had a discussion this week about ralph lauren where yeah, there are levers you could pull on pricing, but you start worry about brand integrity and not becoming tommy hilfiger where you become too mass market. >> rupert's comment on pricing this morning, you increase prices so much in the luxury space, a channel flat bag has tripled in price to over $10,000 during the pandemic. at some point, consumers say, it's not worth it. there are brands that they say are worth it, those very top hermes and the others, but when a brand is making the same product, triple the price that it was four years ago, that's where i think consumers are going to have some resentment about those brands that really increased prices a lot. >> and the margins on that bag, i can only imagine.

>> yeah. >> you can buy one on seventh avenue for 30 bucks. >> or canal street even less. >> i don't know much about that bag, but i know inflation has not gone up three times in that time period. >> exactly. >> robert thank you. >> after the break, art cashin with his outlook for stocks after the s&p's longest winning streak in two years. later, diageo shares warning after a slowdown on track for their third worst day in teehr years. big show still ahead

i'm pippa stevens and here's your cnbc news update at this hour israeli troops pushing deeper into gaza city today as local

health officials and residents reported intense bombing and a large presence of military vehicles near a number of hospitals. this after the hamas-run health ministry says a number of people were injured when artillery struck the largest hospital in gaza city. while meeting with diplomats in new delhi, secretary of state antony blinken welcomed israel's agreement to deal with humanitarian pauses in gaza but says too many palestinians have been killed and more needs to be done to protect civilians. a trol appeals court ruling that -- federal appeals court ruling the biden administration lacked the authority to put limits on privately made firearms called ghost guns the kits can be assembled at home and difficult for law enforcement to trace the administration likely to appeal the ruling after already asking the supreme court to intervene. david, back to you. >> thank you. we are a little over an hour into the trading day, and we do

have the markets in positive territory, as you see the nasdaq the strongest performer thus far. let's go over to bob pisani and find out what he's thinking about. bob? >> good morning, david good to see you. we're unchanged on the week for the s&p but the nasdaq still mega cap tech still matters here, up about 1%. take a look at the sector. it's very choppy the last couple weeks. not -- very hard to get a trend. energy having an up day, but it's been a loser recently interest rate sensitive like reits have faded the is week the mover is mgk take a look at this. vanguard etf that i really watch because it's got amazon, apple, microsoft, all the mega cap tech 2% from a new high mega cap tech dominates. a look in the last, you know, since the month started, mega cap tech stocks, amd, video, snowflake, apple all up.

that's the one solid trend remaining in the last few weeks. other than that very choppy. big cap tech has the momentum. a lot of stuff fading that was stronger recently. banks, retail, macy's, dillard, best buy, all down, health care, utilities and reits had a moment and they're fading too energy has been weak for weeks and weeks, as oil has moved down here if you look at it new highs and lows, i don't see a big expansion but a lot of cyclical stocks freeport brand, they're a big producer, new low there, robinson in the transports, and best buy and nor strom and gm 52 week lows here i spoke yesterday about all the ipos we should be seeing a lot of big ipos that's what happens in november we have nothing we have nothing moving at all here and that's really a disappoint, i i think, for what's going on fort overall market. a small ipo, a big tech company,

priced at $15 the low end of the range. cancer therapeutic company and that's kind of interesting that they couldn't get it up into the mid size of the range here if you look at where we have here what's been going on, another poor year president second year in a row look at this $18 billion. that's all we could raise so far this year. last year $7 billion give you some idea, 50, $60 billion a normal year. we're in november and only raised $18 billion the indication of how poor things have been and disappointing in the month of november about next week, what matters here is bond yields and inflation. see the tick for tick moves in the stock market against treasure yields here the cpi on tuesday, ppi on wednesday. if the trend remains down, there's a very good chance the market wants to believe the fed is going to be doing hiking, but it's going to be about inflation numbers and whether we can keep moving the trend to the

downside that's what matters right now. guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you for that bob pisani let's keep that conversation going and bring in on the cnbc newsline, ubs's art cashin art, talk about the data that's coming next week in a minute, but i wonder whether or not you think yesterday's auction was historic or pivotal in near term market direction >> it was something that got everyone's attention you know, it was not just a poor auction, it was absolutely lousy. you know, when the dealers have to step in to save a treasury auction, that's a rare occurrence david and mark zandi were having a very important conversation earlier and that's on being able to finance this deficit and the reason we had that eight-day

rally, it was because the first signs of what the treasury needs would be were better than the market expected. i think that's a rather temporary thing. keep your eye very closely on any reports about the need for further issuance of bonds. that's going to be clearly important. when we're at an interesting spot here in the s&p, obviously, 4400 at the top, and we stopped at the 50-day moving average, which is 4340, so we've got some guidelines in here to watch, and then again on the 10-year, below 4.60 is somewhat encouraging to stocks and above 4.70 we would probably put pressure on them. so very much about bonds and

about yields so that's a key area, and it was an important discussion david was thing. >> yeah. what do we think about the high-profile names that covered shorts around 5? >> well, you know, it got to level where it looked like it was going to punch through and the absolute resistance in the yield is up around 5.25. that got them nervous. the game is not over yet if they take it down below i would say 4.25, it would matter. i do think one of your earlier guests thought that one of the things that may have gotten powell to talk a little more hawkishly is that they're watching that. they were a bit surprised to see it get up to 5%, but then they

realized it was doing a good deal of the fed's own work for it and that was pleasant and the fact that it was pulling back smartly made him nervous, and he wanted to inject a little hawkishness to keep that from going any further. >> it's david. i appreciate you mentioning the zandi interview. you've been talking about deficits for years as one concern. i'm curious how concerned you are at this moment and how much it colors your view of not just the treasury market but the equity market? >> well, you know, the bond and equity market are linked you can't deny that. it used to be some vague aspect to it, but now when 10-year yield moves at certain levels, you can almost see it responding in stocks, so i am worried about the deficits

i think, you know, floor traders have to think ate a lot of things ahead -- about a lot of things ahead of time, and i'm wondering whether the move by senator manchin may bring the discussion of deficits way up top, depending on whether he moves for a different elective office and brings the topic up or just the near fact that he was a little bit of a deficit hawk, so i think that's going to raise that conversation a bit more, and the more active that conversation goes, the more impact it will have on the bond market and therefore in the stock market i said that, to me, that whole eight-day run to the upside, was when the treasury announced lower than expected demand for new issuance i think they will have that

lockstep reaction again, david. >> yeah. we'll see after romney and now manchin, how much of a center holds in the senate, art thanks to you, as always have a good weekend and talk soon art cashin. >> take care. >> as we head to break, check out the biggest gainers on the dow for the ekedy plwe l bape. we are back in three clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all of these plans include a healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items like vitamins, pain relievers, first-aid supplies and more. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. other benefits on these plans include free

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alright, alright! tiny, branch, poppy... on another musical adventure. ♪ you're all i ever wanted ♪ i can't believe this is really happening. ♪ you're all i ever needed ♪ looks like your band days aren't behind you. grrr. welcome back goodbye wall street bets and hello global heads why retail investors are flocking to boring investing strategies kate, do they still have diamond hands, that is the question? >> that is the question. retail traders are leaning in to what some are calling lazy investing buying passive, low-cost indexes championed by vanguard's late founder. fans have called themselves bogeyleheads, but a presence on reddit, calling them long-term investors, the ceo of robinhood,

once the go to place to buy meme stocks, told me he is seeing a shift in sentiment shift amid higher rates more flows are going into things like money market funds, bond etfs with less appetite for some of the momentum stocks >> one of the really interesting things we've seen over the past couple months robinhood being mentioned and being discussed in sort of these traditional passive investing forums like bogleheads on reddit. >> we spoke to some who say they feel vindicated by their long-term strategy is working out. they avoided the meme stock era. recent data backs up what we've been talking about robinhood has been seeing it too. schwab's survey showing millennials are embracing bond etf than older generations and vandtrack, flows into treasuries as well to capture higher yields call the moves t-bill and chill.

>> what does this mean for the business modelrs of the rhodes of the world don't they want their customers to be trading frequently and having order flow and all that >> it's a double-edged sword they've been able to capture some of the benefits of higher rates and net interest income and trying to lean into that and mature with the investor, and now offering things like retirement accounts and sort of adjust to this different investing paradigm with higher rates, and they're saying things like active trading will be a part of the business, but trying to adjust and steal market share from the vanguards and schwabs of the world at this point. >> thanks for that kate rooney this morning. in the next hour the ceo of twilio on the company's latest results. stock is getting a slight bump on those results in an even tape dow up 72, s&p 15. after the break, though, wine spectator unveiling the number onep wine of the year with us live at post nine.

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that guidance. brandon gomez has more. >> down double digits on pace for its first one day fall in years. the premium spirits maker saying it expect weaker performance and latin america and the caribbean. the company also said it expects to see slower growth with net organic sales declining by more than 20% i will say one bright spot is north america showing gradual improvement in sales look, it's not just hitting diageo look at shares of other european spiritsmakers, also falling on guidance this morning. the street clearly taking this guidance as further sill naturaling of weakness in the consumer, especially when it comes to expensive, high margin spirits. johnny walker whisky on the other side of the trade you have ambbev and constellation. you can see shares less impacted companies with portfolios with

broader price point and less on premiumization as consumers trade down, that's the opportunity for names like this, whereas it's the risk for names like diageo. >> thanks. wine spectator revealing their top 100 bottles of the year and unveiling the number one pick. over 25 bottles on that list the cost under $25 joining us exclusively at post 9 is tasting director bruce anderson great to have you back. >> thanks for having me. >> do you want to do the honors first? >> i want to give you a little background this year wine spectators tasted 1,920 wines of nearly 6,000 were eligible for top 100 we used four criteria. we use quality based on score, value based on price, we also use availability and something we call the x factor, which is the back story behind the wine

we've been unveiling the top ten all week on our website, winespectator.com. finally this morning to give you the exclusive on the number one wine >> really quick, are those parameters weighted or equally judged >> equally judged. >> what we have is the argiano 2018. >> from? >> from tuscany in italy, it's rated 95 points and it costs $90. this is about 3500 cases imported to the u.s. it's fairly widely available. >> it just went up in price, though. >> absolutely. >> just especially for you, david. >> how much -- you know, i'm always curious after a rating like this, i mean, it does impact the price of those cases, i would assume >> yes, yes. i'm sure we'll see an increase in the price

how much remains to be seen. >> $90 is not a bad price for an excellent bottle of wine, right? >> actually, on our list, there were several wines that were over $100, but about half the list is under $50. and as you mentioned earlier, a little more than a quarter of the list is less than $25. >> is that usually the case or have winemakers become more efficient in their manufacturing processes and grape gathering and -- >> that's usually the case, yeah we focus on value. we want to find interesting wines, but also good value for our readers. so, that's pretty typical for our top 100. >> when it comes to corks and glass and labor and paper, what's pricing pressure been like for the industry? >> well, there's been inflation in those areas for the wineries. it's been more expensive, especially for those dry goods and so their costs have increased. fortunately for consumers, those costs have not been passed on. >> and overall in the u.s.,

sales have been pretty flat with the exception of sauvignon blanc. >> but it's booming domestically and -- >> any reason why? >> it's hard to say why these trends start once they pick up speed, that's it >> i think a lot of our viewers want to know how you get the job as a taste tester for all of these wines. are somaliers, wine aficionados? i'm sure the quit rate is very low. >> yeah, i've been with the company for 30 years yeah, we have background in retail or somaliers. it's a great job what i can say. >> how old were you when you realized you could not -- not just that you have the palate but you could verbalize it into notes that made sense? >> i got into wine as a

teenager really when i moved to the u.s. in 1990 i got more involved in it and my tasting increased, you know, ten-fold >> and was this one in particular your favorite as well >> yes. >> it was? >> yes tuscan is one of my regions. >> very good. >> one of mine, too. >> bruce, thanks for coming in it's great to see you guys we consider it a privilege to have you unveil it here. >> thanks for having me. >> great way to end the hour great weekend. i go away. but stay tuned for another great hour of "squawk on the street. health insurance. it's often hard to know which way to go. it's nice to have options, but too many can be confusing. for instance, if you have medicare, you may be able to get a plan with extra benefits if you know where to look. a licensed humana sales agent can help show you the way. take humana's medicare advantage prescription drug plans. these are convenient, all-in-one plans that offer all of the benefits of original medicare, plus

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good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. after that sloppy 30-year bond auction yesterday, how dependent is the market on the next move in yields? is this rally really hanging by a thread citi's scott chronert will way in. later on, earnings with twilio ceo jeff lawson, a gut check on a.i. and the cloud sector. currently a positive day for the broader index. the s&p up 0.3%.