times earnings, 7.5% dividend yield, next year earnings grow by 12%. >> josh? >> live nation consolidating since july i think she's going to run too year end. >> all right shannon? >> staples they could expand their margins next year on continued high volume. >> see you next week and on the "closing bell. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. stocks are higher but where they end up for the week is uncertain. where fed policy is headed following jay powell's hawkish comments yesterday is also a little uncertain let's kick things off with someone who can directly shed light on what to expect from the fed from here. and that's san francisco fed president mary daly who is here now with cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman kick things off for us. >> you kicked it off mary dal hey, thank you for

joining us this morning by your count. >> glad to do it. >> okay. so what kelly read is sort of the question i have. where are we right now on fed policy i think there might be a little bit of confusion in the sense that are we one bad inflation report away from hiking rates or do you and the committee need to be convinced with a series of bad reports to hike rates? are you on hold? >> okay. let me first say i'm going to speak for myself. >> right of course. >> here's how i see it, is that policy is in a very good place we have it positioned so that in my judgment, the risks are over tightening and under tightening are roughly balanced and see policy working that's the second point. policy is working. the economy is slowing you see some of the real side variables, employment et cetera easing those are good things in terms of the forecast for inflation. and the news on inflation has been fairly good we shouldn't dismiss that.

it's been good all of that said, it is far too early to he declare victory and i think that's why, you know, there's a lot of demand for certainty we would say we're done or hiking but the truth is we don't know. we shouldn't really declare one side or the other because prudent policy, optimal policy, means we stand in the ready position ready to stp in the inflation data -- stop if the inflation data continues to perform well and ready to raise again if we need to pull the reigns back on the economy even more the ready position is something everyone understand in sport you stand center court when we do it in policy people find it confusing. it is optimal policy positioning right now. >> mary, listening to fed chair powell yesterday, twice, once in the press conference and once in the speech yesterday said the fed is not confident we have reached the rate where we will bring down inflation and i know this is not sort of a

wonky monetary policy question, but shouldn't the fed chair be competent that he's in a place where inflation will come down are you confident we're at a place where inflation will come down at this level >> so, if i may, i'm going to use an analogy because i think of it this way you can be significantly restrictive, which i think we are, and can not be sure if you're sufficiently restrictive, again where we are what does that mean? if you've ridden a horse it looks like this. pulling back the reigns and the horse notice and that's restrictive. you don't know if the horse is feeling the bridle enough to be sufficiently restrifktive to stop like the horse we're in a position now where we know we're significantly restrictive. to be confident we have a level to bring inflation down we're going to have to watch the data and see if the economy is slowing and inflation is consistently coming down you mentioned at the top of the

question, are we looking at one report, three reports? i would like to get out of the data that data dependence is a single report or two reports it's really about how you put all of that together, including all of the utreach we do when we talk to businesses, communities and unions and workers and ask, how do you think the economy is going are you still hiring are you cutting back are we seeing inflation come down input prices it's going to be the constellation of data, data plural, that we're going to have look at and be very forward looking here that's why too early to declare victory but don't want to discount the fact that we're in a good place because we can be able to move easily depending on what data brings. >> i want to come back to that and make sure. when raphael bostic sat across from me and said we're sufficiently restricted it's a big deal that's a metric that chair powell has put out, once we get there we can stop. is mary daly saying now we're

sufficiently restricted or not >> i'm saying i don't know yet. >> okay. >> i think that's okay. >> okay. >> i feel confident in saying it's not clear yet reasonable people can disagree here on whether we're sufficiently restricted, but i would remind the listeners, everybody's views depend on their outlook for the economy. and what i'm saying is that our outlook for the economy, while positive, still has open questions. will inflation really continue to come down as we need it too americans have been waiting too long for inflation to come back down to 2% it is our job and our commitment to remain vigilant on that battle until we can deliver on that promise over a reasonable time frame. >> i wonder if getting back down to 2% means in the '90s it took until like 1995 or something if the economy starts to worsen considerably, maybe we have our answer even if we're not all the way down there president daly, i wanted to ask about something different, are you unnerved at all by how the

bond auctions are going? fiscal policy is the fed's mandate, your third mandate is long long-term interest rates they have a triple one can you hear me? as you watch the auctions go off, are you satisfied with the level of demand for treasury yields and would there be mandate for the fed to step in if they felt long-term interest rates were becoming unanchored >> don't know she's hearing us now. >> maybe you can paraphrase? >> do you hear us now? we're having a technical issue with mary daly so -- just to recap what we've been hearing, i guess we'll get mary daly back on right away, my -- she's, again in this limbo is where we are right now. >> yes into the essence of it. we are almost done, but maybe not quite depending on where the data comes out.

>> are we just one, quote, unquote, bad inflation report away. >> we might be closer than perhaps is being acknowledged, perhaps, by the market because we have had a bunch of fed speakers come forward and tell us they think that market is -- that the data has been sideways when it comes to inflation i think mary daly is back. are you back now, president daly >> i am back. >> well done. >> i'll ask my question much more quickly, basically, just are you concerned at all by the way that bond auctions have been going or the long end of the yield curve is becoming untethered >> really bond yields move around for a variety of reasons and lot of uncertainty out there. we shouldn't be surprised at the volatility i would like to make a very big distinction between volatility that causes financial dislocation or something worrisome about market functioning, we're not there, and volatility that's a natural outcome of tremendous uncertainty out there in the world, geopolitical tensions

where teconomies and central banks are doing and market participant behavior trying to figure it out. i see financial conditions from the fed's perspective what we need to see, financial conditions are tighter than they were and remaining tight and seeing this in bank lending, and that is going to be helping part of bringing the economy back into balance and bringing inflation down. >> you were one of the first presidents i think, president daly, to point out that the bond market was doing the work for the fed, and you had said last month you thought it was doing about a quarter point extra for the fed in terms of raising rates. how do you feel now they were up near 5% and back to 4.5. give us your character itizatiof how long end bond yields are impacting fed policy. >> they're still up from the prior september meeting and we should think about that. i would like to broaden the

conversation because i don't want to get overly fixated on a 10-year yield that moves around for a variety of factors financial conditions broadly mortgage rates are up, credit card rates are up, the economy, banks lending, charging higher rates and the standards have risen. we are seeing tighter financial conditions working through the economy in the way we would expect, and the big question is, is it enough so if financial conditions should loosen more, that would be something we would have to pay attention to it's also, what's the behavior of inflation if it moves sideways, i came in at the point you said it's move sideways if it continues to move sideways and the labor market and gdp growth remain solid we have to raise again. if those things don't happen, they come down, and inflation continues to come down to 2%, then that's a different decision i think that's why if i can, i would like to emphasize,

optionality has to be the metric of the day, and it not the certainty that i think everybody would love us to say, but wouldn't be optimal policy. >> can you tell us what sufficiently restrictive looks and feels like if? >> for me, sufficiently restrictive means i'm seeing movement in the inflation data that's not simply on the what i would characterize as the easy wins right now price inflation is doing what you would want. supply chains are easing the fed doesn't have a lot to do with supply chains easing or not easying. those were easy wins huge relief to the american people who don't have to pay high-end rising prices but not exactly the way that inflation is going to come down to 2%. i'm looking at shelter price inflation that's coming down and that liesive so far -- elusive categories exhousing, stuck sideways that's ap indication

we're not sufficiently restrictive. i continue to be data dependent. >> i want go where you don't want to go, talk about deficits. i get that i'm glad the fed doesn't talk about that i want to talk about this issue as chair powell said in the past, you take what's given to you. in a world like we have right now, which is high and rising or at least permanently high deficits, what does that do to the neutral rate in your mind? >> the way the neutral rate works is simple. the demand for funds and the supply of funds. >> right. >> so savings and investment if the government across the globe are using some of that investment with the private sector, well then the spupply of funds is the same and neutral rate will rise something should be on all of our minds, but again, there's a sense i've lived through this several times through several

cycles people want to declare the structure of the economy has changed while still sorting out the cyclical pressure. we should keep an open mind what's happened to the neutral rate of interest and whether it's risen but not be declarative yet. we don't know. >> i want to translate this into eng grish for people to use at cocktail parties at the danger of not being 100% accurate is it right to say we're in a world of permanently higher government deficits and borrowing, that is a world of higher interest rates and higher neutral rate is that fair to say? >> the government borrowing is in addition to the private sector's demand. >> great. >> kelly, i got that wonky part. >> i feel like our viewers won't be satisfied unless i push it one step forward, president daly, to ask, you know, is it because of the deficit that we are seeing higher long-term

interest rates right now >> no. well, it's hard to know. i say no, but it's hard to know. what say no to, it's a single factor let me be clear, it is tempting to say oh, must be this, must be that really it's a group of things, and i think the temptation that we need to resist is thinking one thing is driving the economic dynamics we're witnessing because we do that, that's the real head fake that you can get, is if you over focus on one thing and then living in a complex world, you'll miss the real pieces of the transition that are so important to making good policy decisions. >> mary, i'm interested in this idea that you talked about earlier, i don't remember a time when i had an opportunity to talk to federal reserve officials relying more upon what they're hearing on the ground than what data is saying is that because there's such a contrast right now, that the third quarter came in so strong,

the weakened a bit but remains strong is there a big difference between what the data is saying and you're hearing >> i think of it differently if i may. i think of it as the data are -- that we collect, the headline data, is often backward looking and tells you where you've been. what's critical is we decide if we're significantly or sufficiently restrictive of course what's happening going forward. so the contact information, we always collect, it's not new, but the emphasis on really asking people not what they're doing last week but doing over the next six months, and really understanding that, is going to be critical to us doing a good projection of how the economy is evolving so if we get a gdp report that says oh, my gosh it's robust, we have to go back and say will it continue to be r robust it's additive to the published data collection, something we always do, but in every

transition i've been through, you rely a lot on these contact information bits. >> mary, last question and you've been very generous with your time here, do you still hold out hope that your base case that we have this sort of soft landing that we move to a place and is that soft landing below, at or above potential growth >> absolutely. my aspiration, since we started this journey of trying to bring inflation down well, do it as gently as we can, and that we end up doing the thing that most people want, which is, have a healthy and strong, vibrant economy that's sustainable and 2% inflation that's -- every bit of the work i'm doing and my committee members where i can speak for us is about that thing. for me that probably does look like, steve a little bit of period of low potential growth and the markets slowing down to a sustainable pace, around 100,000 jobs per month, not

something larger than that, and that is more transition to come. but it is not an economy that falls into a deep, down turn, and i think now the probability is that everyone is calculating seems to agree with that we still have work to do and still working hard on that, but that is the goal 2% inflation and a good economy. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> and debut on "the exchange" and they'll have you back. >> open invitation. >> thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> san francisco fed president mary daly. steve stay with us p dive into her comments and where we are in the business cycle. my next guest is known for the rule that we seem to be close to triggering after the october jobs report that tells us when the unemployment rate rises half a point from the cycle lows a recession is coming. joining us claudia, a former fed economist and developer of the rule you are everywhere these days. you're like a rock star and appreciate you joining us today.

welcome. >> thank you good to be here. >> there's so much i want to get out and i'll let you do the talking v we triggered the som rule >> we have not we've moved closer since the middle of the year we are not a recession it's an indicatinger, not a forecast we're not in a recession and we've been getting closer to the flashing red on the indicator. and it's no promise that we stay out of a recession going forward. >> what i think is so fascinating about your research you developed it with an automatic stabilizer in mind and want everyone to hang on, when i tell them what this could be, when we rise half a point, three month moving average, not yet, when we rise half a point in a cycle that could be a policy moment to release stimulus checks to households now, you developed this well before covid, well before this became the subject of much scrutiny and debate. would that be a policy you think

would be applicable today if we hit the trigger point? >> automatic stabilizes are a good idea. one place where the sahm rule i did see it come into draft legislation senator bennett and his colleagues led, was in turning on the enhanced jobless benefits that's another program we do with extra money in the checks, longer durations obviously, that's not -- we don't have that right now. if nothing else it can have congress have a guide it's time. even if they do it on a discretionary basis and we can think harder about how to structure the stimulus chuck check. we've learned how to do that better in terms of timing and size i think it's a very promising area, and i would like to get back to it and stop being an arbiter of recessions. that's less fun. >> claudia, i have to watch out for the people on "the exchange" because what they do is take stories on my list of things to do, and then turn earn and

they're doing it doing a pieceon the sahn rule was on my list is the sahm rule a cause or indicative relationship in the sense of when this happens, this other thing tends to happen or does the idea of this rising create the reality of the recession? >> so to be clear the sahm rule is a pattern, highly accurate, going back to the '70s, every recession that hits it and doesn't hit outside of it. that's true of any, you know, microeconomist tells you what's going to happen, same thing, empirical data in the past there is a logic that is important, and not novel to the sahm rule once the employment rate starts rising it keeps going and picks up steam and a feedback loop that workers get laid off and spend less and other workers get laid off because there aren't the

customers and so on and so forth. that's why a small increase in the unemployment rate can be really bad news because it keeps going. >> where i was going with this is, i get that, but it seems like everything has been different this time. we're still waiting for the inverse of the yield curve to give us the 100% automatic recession that hasn't come around yet, and i'm wondering if you could think about your rule and work show, there is a reason why this is going to be like it always was or different this time >> so my base case right now, as with president daly, we avoid a recession. my base case is the sahm rule breaks, we trigger half a percentage point that would mean getting around 4% an hanging there for three months i think given where we're at right now, that is entirely possible -- >> wait a second are we hearing a sahm rule corollary it's not the change

but left has an impact >> no, no, no. >> in the unemployment night it's not -- the trigger has nothing to do with the level it's triggered at all levels in the past we're at 3.9%. it wouldn't take much to drift around 4 and stay there for a little bit the reason i think the logic behind this time is different, right now we're seeing increases in the unemployment rate that have to do with demand, that feedback cycle i was talking about, and they have to do with supply we have had a burst of workers come back this year and they're just coming back faster than the jobs are adding. things have moderated. we're in a period of the catch up it was the opposite under the labor shortage when we had low unemployment rates because there were jobs and not enough workers. so that's going to take a little bit of time to work out. so that's why i think we could keep moving up in the unemployment rate, and yet as those rebalancings happen, level

out and come down below 4. >> everything about this encapsulates we have the founder of the sahm rule saying maybe this time will be different and also we just heard from the san francisco fed president about, you know, the soft landing, but let me end, claudia, with this, as you said, the first half point rise in the unemployment rate, don't you think almost every cycle people dismiss it and say the economy, it's not that bad still strong look around. i feel like the reason i like your rule, is that it tells us before we want to admit it to ourselves something is happening. i look at the consumer sentiment data this morning it was terrible, right, and you think maybe these things are telling us something that we can't quite see point blank yet. i admit the markets are singing a different tune today and as you said, maybe it will be different. >> right and the fed watches this, right. the sahm, in the great recession, that was about the time the fed put the recession call in. that was pretty early in the spring this is -- this is not like something i just dreamed up.

right. there are people that watch this there are market participants that have followed these increases in the unemployment rate, and yet you are absolutely correct that often we start explaining it away. >> yeah. >> gdp still strong. >> yeah. >> thanks for joining us we hope you're wrong. >> she says i hope so too. thank you for coming on. >> thank you. >> i know you've had a lot of demands on your time this week and appreciate you making the time and joining us here read more on her substack. coming up are retailers ready for a ho-hum holiday season? back of america's tank on the quarter next and spending from the ceo of trip adviser, that stock tracking for its weekly gain of 10% an best month since january after an earnings beat an his outlook on the holiday travel season and beyond i mentioned markets. take a look at the positive tone this afternoon

shaking off what we heard from chair powell yesterday session highs here with the dow up 272, nearly a percent s&p 1.1% the nasdaq up 1.6% and the 10-year ♪ climbing to 4.63 thank you again as well today for all your time. steve liesman. we're back after this. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized, based on your goals, whatever they may be.

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welcome back to "the exchange." volatile couple days for shares of affirm. it was higher 14% yesterday after q1 results topped expectations it's down 8% today even as data from morning consult reveals 39% of high-end consumers are considering using buy now pay later loans for holiday expenses what does that tell us about the kind of season we might be in for after that weak consumer

sentiment report this morning. let's talk winners and losers, retail analyst of bofa securities great to see you it's that time of year how is it looking so far >> you know, we are expecting a muted holiday this year. our retail team in total expects retail sales up about 0.6% this is a big deceleration from last year's 3.3 and really continues the relatively weak performance we're seeing in categories like apparel and accessories all year long. >> yeah. that i think is what people are concerned about and we'll talk later with trip adviser and how much is spending shift to services is it a consumer problem or a buying stuff problem narrowly? >> i think it's more of a buying stuff problem. the consumer has held up better than anybody expected all year they're spending on different things the inflationary environment has taken a lot of money out of their wallet for things like

food, like gas, right, above and beyond the normal times. people are continuing to spend on travel and entertaining, going out to eat, and what that leaves is less money in their wallet for things like apparel an accessories we've seen the consumers really looking for value. we've seen a lot of market share shifts towards retailers like tj maxx, ross stores, really focused on value great brands, great prices we've seen the higher priced retailers that don't have the same perception of value for the consumer, start to really struggle. >> all the buzz before the show started the crew and i were talking about how much they love shein and all buying clothes and juicers from there they've arrived. who does that displace >> you know, look, there's always been a really inexpensive disrupter in apparel retail. we had forever 21 for years

coming in with rock bottom prices, prime mark shein has taken that to another level on the pricing side and also on the number of units that you can buy. there's just a constant feed of newness on that website. i think that that will take share from a lot of the less differentiated private label retailers who compete on price one of the reasons why we don't think off price will be as impacted by it, because they have high quality branded apparel that is a value to their consumer you can buy a $10 pair of trousers and wear them every week for two years, right. that's a different value than two fashion tops for $10 that you could wear a couple times and get rid of it's certainly disruptive and certainly affecting a lot of the teen and tween retailers, lower priced retailers, but i don't think it affects everybody the same way. >> that's a great point. almost like off price is the new

department store something like that. i just want to highlight the fact that your favorite name and top pick is bath and body works and surprises me because they were a pandemic beneficiary. i would have thought we were in the hangover period. why do you think there could be a bright spot? >> i think we're kose to being finished with that hangover. they were a pandemic beneficiary. everybody was running out to buy soaps and sanitizers they've come back to normal and what's exciting they're launching newness for the first time in years. they have a new management team. they have some new strategies to really start launching into adjacent categories an that would be important for the story over the next several years. it's a good branded product at a value for the consumer which would be important this holiday season. >> we are going to see a santa lighting on saturday i will look and see if the store is crowded and do channel

checks thanks for joining us. check back in soon. >> thank you. let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. >> i'm going to find out more about a santa lighting in a little bit santa is lit the palestinian red crescent society posted there are intense clashes right now taking place near a hospital in gaza city the post on x said that snipers opened fire on the facility and that one person has died, two dozen injured. nbc news has not been able to verify the claims independently and reached out to the israeli defense forces for comment. glaciers in greenland melting five times faster than they were 20 years ago scientists te university of copenhagen found there is a correlation between the temperature we experience on the planet and the rate at which glaciers melt ap ice sheets hold enough water to raise sea levels 20 feet if they were to melt entirely taylor swift's record

breaking streak continues. the superstar has made history as the first person nominated in the song of the year category at the grammys seven times now and also claimed her sixth album of the year nomination for "midnights" tying the record with barbara try sapds for the most nominations interesting, barbara streisand back in the news with a memoir. >> we'll wait for taylor's in 30 years. might be rough going for traditional retail but the travel industry has high hopes for the fourth quarter we'll get a read on the strength of the season from the ceo of trip adviser off their earnings beat with the stock up 21% in two weeks.

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welcome back spending on travel and experiences remains resilient and not just taylor swift. tripadvisor beating on the top and bottom lines, shares up 9% since the report revenues from its tours unit soaring 40%. sales from overseas restaurant reservations jumped 20%. tripadvisor expects trends to continue, showing two-thirds of travelers now place more value on experiences joining me in an exchange exclusive, matt goldberg, president and ceo of tripadvisor. welcome to you it's great to have you on. >> thanks for having me. >> nice stretch lately, what is driving gains we talked about. >> the experiences trend is for real, and you see consumers prioritizing discretionary spend like travel above and beyond others we're seeing it elsewhere too. it's in concerts and sports. travel, three quarters of travelers tell us they will

prioritize travel no matter what happens externally and 95% of them say it's something that they will continue to do over and over with experiences at the heart of it. >> when we talk about signs of fraying in the consumer, delinquency rise for subprimes, consumer sentiment data wasn't that strong, there's other pressure points you worry about into the holiday season, do you think your business is going to be resilient to that is it going to take a long time for those to be felt >> we're seeing travel intent hold it's durable the reason for this is that two-thirds of travelers want to travel this winter, and it's a travel season people get excited about and they're saying that they're going to book experiences early and saying that they're going to continue to go, whether domestic or international, probably 70% domestic but up to 50% are considering international as well what's interesting is that as they look at the economic indicators, they basically say that they will put travel at the

top, so they will save in other areas so that travel can be prioritized. >> they will pull back on toilet paper if they have to. >> or clothes. >> what are -- we've been so hyper focused on the taylor swift thing, i am curioused, you talked about it, what are the specific experiences you see people flocking to >> it's interesting because experience are coming in probably as incremental demand over other things people do, and it's that sort of travel, something as simple as pasta making in tuscany, it could be glow worm spotting in new zealand or just be going to the caribbean and doing an atv on the beach, snorkeling tour we've heard about guided night kayaking tours interest in adventure and the experience you can bring home as a memory to last a lifetime. >> glow worms in new zealand and guided night kayaking tours.

how do you make money? is it a similar model no matter if it's an experienced traveler or ways you monetize along the way. >> you talked about the beat across multiple categories we see with hundreds of millions of people that come to tripadvisor, we see about a third coming for hotels, third coming for experience and growing, and about a third coming for dining. dining is still a very important experience we make money in a multitude of ways some of that is by the traffic that we send to others some of that is by sharing our audience with brands who are increasingly using us, whether indem nick or nonendemic we can take you to booking and experience. >> maybe take a cut of that or something like that? >> absolutely. a combination of transactional revenue and the media revenue. >> you've come in to take over the fwris a founder. where do you see taking this in the next two to three years? >> our vision is we can be the

leading, most trusted source of travel and experiences and putting experiences at the center of this, if anybody believes the experienced economy is for real, we are the company best situated with the demand profile and supply to the table to take advantage of that trend. >> there are all of these deep pocketed competitors, stuff like booking and i know they're not exactly the same, but there is some overlap there how do you differentiate do you advertise and pay for those google results or chatgpt will disrupt this? >> we've been active with chatgpt. >> have you. >> tripadvisor one of the things we're thinking about shifting to an engagement model to bring people in. we launched a trip planning and itinerary builder, leveraging chatgpt. >> travel agent. >> it can be in your pocket with an app we're driving towards engagement and engagement is driving the model i mentioned. we also partner with expedia and booking.

we have over 4,000 partners for experiences which includes both of them and tech giants like uber and amazon. that experience model is at the heart and we are right in the bull's eye zone. >> you probably have a better sense than anybody, do you do a staycation and say i'm over and stay home and unsflug. >> i do both in fact, i have both coming up for the holiday i will go back down to australia where i spent my career. i'm excited. >> that is a long flight thank you for joining us appreciate your time today matt goldberg ceo of tripadvisor. coming up, president biden set to meet with chinese leader xi jinping in san francisco next week with tech restrictions one of the hot button issues we'll look at the companies with the most at stake when these discussions happen the dow up almost 300 points you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean-

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personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. wow... we can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. welcome back big focus on u.s.-china tensions today ahead of the apec summit where president biden and president xi jinping are set to meet in san francisco and we have new headlines showing cracks in the chinese tech crackdown. for more let's check in with deirdre bosa for today's tech check. what's happening >> kelly, the last time that president biden and president xi

met was a year ago during the group of 20 summit in bali tensions have ratcheted up so it will be interesting to see next week if we get signals that might signal cooperation you mentioned there are two areas where chinese companies make advancements here ai and e-commerce. zero one.ai is one of the startups founded by one of the leading experts on ai in china, leading microsoft and google in the country and less than eight months his start-up reached $1 billion an created a product that performance better than american ones on certain metrics. in an interview yesterday, lee went on an nvidia buying blitz this year buying enough chips to last for the next 18 weeks or so he stockpiled enough american technology to build up a chinese competitor on the e-commerce front, two of the fastest

platforms in america are chinese, temu and shein. you were talking about american companies, though, continue to take hits in the chinese market, there's unity, missed revenue expectations and recent quarter thanks to new chinese government restrictions on gaming, rising challenges for apple. meta might be going the other way after 14 years, after getting shut out of the country it's getting back in with tech giant tencent to sell v 4 headsets in particular we'll be watching closely and san francisco right now is gearing up for a major event. the barricades are starting and people figuring out how to get around the city. >> the meta news is fascinating after 15 years, maybe the headset is their re-entry into china. deirdre, thank you deirdre bosa it will be a busy week next week cruise down about 6% this autumn but didn't stop warren

buffet from adding to his position wherpres ae icre headed and other big oil names are a buy is next personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

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welcome back oil prices are down for the third week in a row as opec is set to meet with bulls hoping

more output cuts might be on the table. brian sully vap is here. >> oil at $7, 2 million barrel a day cut, russia cuts, it's iran a big reason they put in 3 plus million barrels day on the market. hit the rig count. came out 1:00 today. down again, 494 u.s. drilling rigs in the united states, down from 622 a year ago. 887 five years ago look at that you think fewer drilling rigs, less oil, higher prices. no guess what oil higher than it was five years ago. that said, record u.s. production, 13 million barrels a day. talked about opec. opec's next move depends on three things, u.s. demand, the eia says we'll drive less next year, china demand where do they go, and nonopec production, interesting, because we never talk about the country of

brazil. >> brazil. >> big factor. how big a factor >> getting big and bigger. i debated showing you this a lot going on here. the right side is 2021, 2023, 2025 the right side, the big white thing is basically that is demand and supply was very low that's coming off of covid 2023, supply-demand and left and right. balanced here's the thing opec, sees nonopec, u.s., brazil, and a few other nations like norway, supply exceeding demand that is probably why opec has stuck to their cuts. >> why do you think the price has been stubbornly low? >> lowish. >> consumers don't feel -- look at the consumer sentiment number this morning, one term, three term, inflation readings were up in part on expectations of higher gasoline prices they're brasds for the worse

it's the bulls feeling the pain right now. >> they are. what's amazing you look at research report after research report with the exception of citigroup and a couple others, most are fairly bullish meaning they see higher prices and keep tweaking them, right, because it's not moving. this has frustrated the saudi minister who said last week this is a paper market, meaning what we show our viewers, that's a contract that's a -- press a button, computer screen. the physical market, actual delivery of oil to make gasoline and other things, may be different. he also talked about deals and you could see that quote, i don't think exxon will merge with pioneer for charitable purposes or for that matter chevron would do that with hess without having a reason. the saudi energy minister, even u.s. companies, exxon and chevron, see probably long term strong demand. >> strong demand they see strong demand, not

because they feel like they have to consolidate for a period of existential weakness. >> the eia says we'll have 1% less consumption, lowest per capita gas consumption in 20 years, growth of evs, work from home, inflation, people driving less, but even still, kelly, that's a massive amount of demand it comes down to china if china does start to do well, then we could see higher prices. >> absolutely. >> it's going to come down to china. you've had kyle bass on your show and others. i think china is in trouble. >> that's what - >> opec sees that. >> fascinating exactly where we should leave. it thank you we'll see you tonight. >> i hope so if you don't alert the authorities. >> might be in the sewer real story bought side story that's the news on energy. how do you play the stocks we'll look at four names in to you three buys and a bail. jeff joins us from that, kkm financial finder and cnbc

contributor. welcome. >> kelly, how are you? >> good. we'll start with exxonmobil. lower, slightly since gen jan 1. profits missed, despite cost cutting. spe spending spree, $60 billion on pioneer. mobile any way -- jeff, are you a buyer here >> i am appear, and i think sully brings up a great point, the broader swath here we talk about energy names we're going to discuss and have seen the move lower and china is the wildcard sully wants to talk about brazil, but what we're seeing exxon has the ability to recover some of the loss if you go back to 2020, had a tough year, two consecutive gang buster years as we're seeing the dollar strength move a little bit or seeing uncertainty, all the geopolitical tension, there's an opportunity in exxon, the essential name, the biggest market cap 5, $00 b-- $500 bill.

>> you would be a buyer of exxon and occidental after they got a downgrade which talked about how they might be slightly behind peers. wolf research saying the return on capital is decelerating they did beat on earnings this week, buying back $300 million of shares from warren buffet and berkshire. you have to stick with the oracle, right? >> you do. you can't fade warren buffet that's not a smart adventure if you look at 2020 when you saw energy stocks having a hard time with covid, this was further extended to the downside however, when you saw it bounce back like in 2022, didn't have an nvidia year of 2023 but it was up this is a higher beta stock. but if you have a conviction oil prices have gone down too far, i'm optimist on some of the folks, you want to own

occidental because you will see a higher beta rebound in a name like this. if you look at the 50-day moving average at $64, recovers there, it has room to run. >> watching 64 just under 61 at the moment and move to has been halliburton, lower opt year, beat on revenues, stifel thinks north american outlook looks positive in a broader commodities downturn why do you like this name? >> at a forward p/e of 12, i think it's a value opportunity, but i think you think about halliburton, high tide lifts all boats here i think energy is such a -- a trader's delight but investors have to have exposure. you have to be tactical because we have seen a lot of moments in time either geopolitical tension, strength of the dollar, u.s. policy, the federal reserve has their hand and footprint on energy this is a name that has a very strong balance sleheet. >> 12 times forward earnings brings us to your bail

almost a cheat it's not a fossil fuel name. it's solar you could have done plug power up here. let me stick with solar, down 75% this year. 27% single day drop. earnings miss, wells fargo says there's no recovery in sight management says marketing efforts and moderating interest rates could be a tailwind. so you know, i don't know, maybe some people are tempted to buy for the long run here but not you? >> not yet look at 2023, it's been horrendous for solar stocks. this chart is an ugly looking chart. you know a lot of broken down ships are at the bottom of the sea with charts like this. i need a catalyst to see them move around. to defend solar edge to your point, look at the balance sheet, about $3.3 billion in assets, that's kind of equal to where it's trading so it's trading, obviously, oversold conditions, but i can't be a buyer here until i see

solar turn around. going back to 2020, this was a fade this was the nvidia stock of 2020 it was up 235% i think you have to understand this is not something from a long-term investment, but it is an opportunity to trade. i don't want to trade it yet because it seems like it wants to go lower. >> jeff, thank you very much we appreciate your time today. jeff killberg. that was his bail. read jeff's piece of how he's taking advantage of exxon after oil's decline on cnbc pro. that does it for "the exchange" today. for more analysis and the economy, the sahm rule, whatever else is on our minds sign up at cnbc.com/newsletters or scan the qr code. next on "power lunch," lawmakers now have less than a week to fund the government. can they stick the landing and what would a shutdown mean if we're headed for one tyler is getting ready i'll join him.

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hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen welcome to a friday edition. the tail wagging the dog, how the bond market and bond auctions have become the driver of stock market action steady of the other way around growing concern shares of plug power plummeting after a warning the company's earnings report in the company's report about its cash position and now it is seeking a lifeline from the federal government. >> let's get a check on the broader markets moving towards session highs. the dow up 307 points. the s&p back over 4400 up 1.3% the nasdaq is the outperformer up 1.8%. also the outperformer all week long tyler mentioned plug power, that stock is down sharply. we'll have more on this nearly 45% decline, little over $3 a share coming up. wynn resorts tanking, after earnings and