choosey mothers choose jif. reminder to join us tomorrow for a special interview at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. >> big deal for us. >> mike johnson will be on, and kind of a timely interview, given that -- >> kind of. >> they're going to be voting tomorrow or wednesday on keeping the government open. so, make sure you join us tomorrow. for now, "squawk on the street" is next. good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer. busy news flow this week with cpi, retail sales, a biden-xi summit and earnings from walmart to cisco. our road map is going to begin with those two weeks of gangz. s&p is pointing to a lower open as investors weigh this moody's downgrade. plus shares of boeing are

rallying, amongst the top performers in the s&p as emirates announces a major new aircraft order. and exxon is set to get into the lithium production business to provide lithium for ev batteries by 2027. let's begin with the markets today, get set for a busy week, jim. a lot of commentary of how there's positioning getting done to prepare for a year-end rally. >> i think people felt the last two weeks were a sign that interest rates had peaked, that the big numbers estimates are too low after what happened last week, and -- or don't worry about it. i find that this is one of those moments, and david, you can disagree with me on this, but when we look at what people were thinking about last year at this time, we had people who were very, very negative, and they're sticking with what's negative, except for they were very wrong last year. >> i can't help but think that you're thinking about a gentleman named mike wilson. i don't want to say that i'm -- i don't know that, but that's

where i'm guessing. >> well, you know, last year, this week, he came out with a -- we were at 3,991 on the s&p. his base target was 3,900 on the s&p. david, that's not right. >> okay. >> we're 4,400. we could sit here and discuss all we want what this man is saying, and i'm happy to do that. >> we pointed out many times, first of all, he was right for a good portion of the downturn, mike wilson, the chief strategist at morgan stanley, and we gave him a lot of air, a lot of kudos for that. but we also talked about how hard it is to be right twice, to get the second call right is even more difficult. >> okay. >> it's hard enough to get one good call. >> i was going over with my team, with jeff marks and ben before i came over here, and of all the things they felt i shouldn't talk about, well, jeff felt, he works with me on the club, why bring it up? the only reason i bring it up is

because once again, he's made what i think is a very tepid forecast that would make you stay out, and i'm saying the opposite. i'm saying that kostin over at goldman is saying, stop worrying. the estimates are fine. i also think that goldman's outlook, kind of positive. >> i mean, we got a lot of '24 play playbooks over the weekend, and it's funny, both goldman and morgan stanley are pretty dovish when it comes to the econ research. fed starts to cut in june. maybe you get a cut every quarter. ms is looking for eight cuts in '25. >> i read that, and i just said, you know what? the late marty zweig always said, don't fight the tape and don't fight the fed. that's a recipe, what you just said. cut 25 basis points per quarter until the second quarter of 2026, beginning last

year -- beginning next year, david, do you know what that's like, to have cut every single meeting? you would be sitting here and saying, jim, what do we do? and i would say, i think the fed is going to keep cutting. that's what you want as a stock picker. >> or as a mortgage holder who's got one resetting in 2026 as well. i'm hoping that that -- that trend is correct. >> it's funny. >> but it may not be, jim. you mentioned a year ago. a year ago, everybody was expecting we would be in a recession by now. >> i did not. i said we were going to have a soft landing. i professed my belief in jay powell. >> you did. >> i did it like a thousand times. when i saw chief powell, i reiterated -- i don't know what else to do. i reiterated. i think it was fine. like apple, don't trade it, own it, which, by the way, worked. i am a big believer in doing nothing, letting it ride. i've been saying that since the year began. let it ride. don't trade. other people come on air, and

they're like, buy apple, sell apple, buy nvidia. no. we're fine. i went over apple, amazon, alphabet this weekend. meta. they were all fine. and if the interest rates had gone up, i think they would have gone down, but interest rates seem to have peaked, and they all went up. rates were the determinant. but as far as the companies, the companies were fine. >> is that why we're getting today upgrades of oracle, crowdstrike, trip advisor, booking? >> crowdstrike and palo alto are both uniquely linked to growth of the cloud. i have been a huge believer in oracle. initially, wrong, but then right, because, you know, oracle, david, has all the chips that microsoft needs. so, microsoft makes a deal, azure with oracle, to get what? to get inside chips because larry ellison had the foresight to say, you know what? i'll take everything nvidia makes, and they're a very good partner of nvidia.

>> right. so, oracle -- i want to make sure i understand. so, oracle is -- they're not selling their nvidia chips to microsoft, but they are going to -- >> they're renting them. rent renting their datacenters, which are filled with nvidia, and a lot of people feel that's because larry ellison came back -- well, i think larry would say he never left. larry has always had a vision. i don't think you ever make money betting against larry. larry had this vision that you're going to need all the nvidia chips you can get, he got them, and now oracle is a partner of microsoft. >> they are. attached to this, but not this story, interesting, though, in the "journal" today talk about electricity production in our country and how much it's going to have to increase as a result of the needs of datacenters, which are just growing at such an enormous rate, not just the building of them but also, i mean, some of them require enormous amounts of energy. >> that's why nvidia has been a winner, because they burn coal. if you speak with jensen huang,

the first thing he says is, we don't waste. we don't use too much power. you have american electric power on, you're thinking, okay, i'm going to go put on. is there any nba? how about some college ball? georgetown? but what happens is that a.p., which happens to be a very, very good company, tells you, look, because the datacenters were crushing it. datacenters and aep. but they are. and i think if you want a datacenter to not burn a lot of energy, you better have nvidia chips inside it. and that's -- >> here's the -- 500 megawatts, some of them, one new datacenter, as much as it takes to power hundreds of thousands of homes. and a.i., by the way, you maybe talk about it. it's still consuming even more than previous datacenters, because it's doing -- i mean, the amount of computing power needed for a.i. is just enormous. >> if jensen were here, he would say, be careful, because we make chips that are worth -- you

could have like a thousand chips and not do as well as the grace hopper, which is his premier, which i don't know, the chinese are trying to get this week, and there is talk in the south china post that we are going to make some deals where as long as you say you're not going to use them militarily, we're going to give you them. >> wait a minute. we're going to go back on what we just did? we literally just said, you can't even take the last generation of nvidia chip, effective immediately, and now you're telling me when they meet this week in san francisco -- >> i'm telling you the south china, the ccmp. do you know how hard it is to subscribe to that thing? it's all zendesk. it's not human. >> does that make sense to you? >> no, doesn't make sense at all. >> so maybe it's not true. >> it's a thesis. it's a thesis. >> well, you did say, as the charm offensive comes to this country from china this week, that we lose our resolve, i

think, is how you put it? >> typically, we have. you got go back to when president obama met xi and they made a deal not to go -- that china could not expand to the south china sea. this is in general madison's excellent book. and the first thing they did right afterwards was go to the south china sea. gina raimondo was in china, and we thought we had a deal, and they were hacking her office while she was there. these are sounds of bad will. but they could be completely bogus. but they're saying our president might make a deal with xi. >> what do we get? what do we get? >> boeing planes? i don't know. that's how we've always sold our nation out is boeing planes. hey, have some boeing planes, and let's steal everything. >> we're going to get to the impact on boeing if, in fact, this freeze gets thawed. first, though, let's talk some diabetes drugs today.

novo nordisk released data suggesting wegovy's benefits go way beyond weight loss. the studies show it cuts overall death by cardiovascular causes by some 20%. was it as impressive as you expected? >> deutsche bank says it threw cold water on the idea that medicare is going to pay. i completely disagree with that. i think that medicare looks at that 20% is a huge deal on heart attacks, but let's first suggest -- let me discussion that the american heart association was widely in the stock that they were going to do it because we knew beforehand that the numbers were positive and now we've got people saying it's no big deal. carl, it's a weight of the evidence thing. if you've got something that can hold back obesity, that can cut back diabetes, that can help on heart attacks, that can be good for blood pressure, the -- i

believe the insurers are going to say this is worth giving it to people, but look, do i think -- i think that lilly goes down today because everyone knew, and i also think because there's so much excitement here that to have any sort of chink could just bring it down. >> i'm hearing what you're saying. >> right. >> which is, while, again, the stocks are reacting somewhat negatively, tercertainly not positively -- >> well, eli lilly was up when dominic chu was on this morning. >> that it's well over done -- that the criticism is overdone. i'm seeing a lot of people picking at it, nitpicking and so forth, but the fact is, what a 1.5% absolute benefit in obese patients with cardiovascular disease, on top of standard of care. i have one note that says, you're talking about $3.6 million per prevented event. in other words, all of the

things that are prevented, kidney, heart, and what it would cost the u.s. health care system, and even if you take into account how much you're going to have to spend on wegovy, you're still talking about a $2.2 million savings per event, which is why insurance, at least the belief of those who are talking about that is, will cover it. >> i think that what matters, let's cut to the chase. if you lose weight, you have fewer heart attacks. if you lose weight, your blood pressure goes down. you got to lose weight. people have trouble losing weight. one of the things that i think is behind all this, carl, is the belief that as great as diet and exercise are, there are people who can't lose weight because they are taking other medicines that make them gain weight. that's about 5 million people. they have predisposition to diabetes. that's about five million people. and they have high blood pressure, which is, i don't know, you could argue that almost everyone in america has high blood pressure because you're supposed to be 120/70. how many people are 120/70?

at the same time, this can't be a referendum on medicare. this is a referendum on the fact that the stock ran up ahead of the aha. i was saying the last two weeks that aha is going to be positive, and it won't necessarily mean anything because it's already in there. >> you have been. and again, there's some debate about whether medicare will cover, certainly initially, and it may well not for a period of time. maybe they make a deal. meanwhile, to the extent you can actually save the u.s. health care system some money, i mean, we spend more on health care in this country than everybody, and by the way, our outcomes are not that much better if better at all. >> people need to lose weight in this country. people are overweight in this country. this helps you lose weight. i don't know what else there is to say. meanwhile, novo has surpassed nestle as the second biggest non-u.s. stock. maybe it's a poetic -- >> okay? i mean, one's a chocolate bar. one, you can have ten chocolate bars. >> but you don't want to. that's the thing.

>> you don't even want a malomar. >> now i need some. now you put that in my head. >> wait until you don't want brownies. >> mondelez sent us a case, but they're all gone already. >> howie roseman put together a 8-1 team. what's your teams? howie roseman is 8-1. people think the eagles are bad. >> maybe we'll talk some football. that was rough. >> and by the way, kelce, where is he? >> we know where he is. we now know where he is. >> i know where he's not, where he can be hit. china's singles day is in the books. we'll look at how e-commerce giants fared on the event. boeing, exxon, tesla, and a negeinse other os ttg t up for the week in a moment.

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china's annual singles day wrapped up over the weekend. how did baba and jd fare? eunice yoon has details. >> reporter: they were mum on the total figures, though they did say the figures grew. the sales for singles day are often seen as a proxy for consumer confidence. we did get some number from third party data providers who said they believe transactions

were up by 2% at about $156 billion, so big, but still smaller than the growth that they estimated was seen last year at 2.9%. so, some of the trends that we were seeing from these figures this year, jd said that apple products transitactions came int $1.4 billion, similar to last year. one of the local competitors to apple said it saw a surprise bump of its latest smartphone, a best-seller on baba, but what people are taking away from that bump is that there are two trends. one that a lot of chinese consumers are preferring to buy cheaper products and also buying local. so, the discounts that we have been seeing here have been somewhere between 40 to 50%. now, this is the backdrop of president xi jinping's visit to the united states where he is going there with a slowing economy and not a whole lot of consumer confidence.

he is going to be meeting with president biden on wednesday, and he's also going to be a speaker at a dinner event for u.s. ceos. a lot of the messaging around this visit from the chinese side is that they're hoping that more investors are going to continue investing into china, and from the u.s. side, it's seen as a larger strategy to boost communication with china, not only with this meeting between xi and biden but also as the white house national security advisor, jake sullivan, said over the weekend that president biden was hoping to deepen ties and re-establish ties, a military-to-military exchanges. so that, in addition to janet yellen's meetings recently with her chinese counterparts, especially the vice premier and then agreeing to come to china as part of what she had described an overall cadence of

these contacts. >> eunice, it's david. earlier, jim and i were talking about the possibility or the expectations, whether there are any on the part of the chinese, in particular something they may be able to get in terms of concessions or even something on the chip side of things and high-end chips. is there any conversation about that? or possibility or expectation that something will actually be accomplished in terms of that? >> well, there's a definite hope that there's going to be some movement on the front of everything that you had just outlined, so expert controls, the easing of sanctions, tariffs. we see that constantly in official statements, as well as in state media. there's some discussion that the chinese might be pushing ahead with an expansion of a dialogue on a.i. some skeptics here have said that that might be a way that

the chinese could delay the u.s. restrictions by having these discussions, because even though the chinese have continuously pushed this idea, it's difficult to say whether or not they actually expect the u.s. to budge, because one of the problems with this discussion that we're seeing between president xi and president biden is that we haven't really seen any movement for a fundamental change on policy with both the united states or with china, for that matter. >> eunice, we'll watch it closely. big meeting on wednesday, and of course, we'll be on the lookout for any deliverables in corporates. take a look at the premarket. some red arrows as yields are a little elevated until the wake tt gaveat fm moody's on friday.

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take a look at some s&p gainers. you'll see boeing in there, up almost 4% or so. got the emirates order, which we'll talk about and the prospect of china thawing the freeze on max purchases. we'll get the opening bell in a couple minutes. you can always catch us any time anywhere, just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening be" dct.llpoas

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, we got an opening bell three minutes from now, but let's squeeze in a "mad dash." some research from guggenheim on wa wa wa warner bros. discovery caught your eye. >> this is in your wheelhouse. guggenheim comes out today and says warner bros. discovery has an nfl problem. by the way, 82 of the 100 most watched programs are the nfl this year. >> incredible, isn't it? >> and they say they could --

could paramount or fox bid could be the next play? now, david, i need you, if possible, there was a piece by deutsche bank that threw cold water on eli lilly and medicare. can you throw cold water on this guggenheim piece? >> sure. i think it's highly unlikely that you would see that kind of a deal. warner bros. discovery in particular, i don't think, views paramount as something that they need or that even gives them enough scale. i think there's a sense that there's difficultly there, and you want to wait it out anyway and see how things settle. >> how about the nba? >> i think the possibility of consolidation overall amongst these players, even the idea that our parent company, comcast, which was widely thought to be interested in warner bros. discovery when the tax ramifications of doing a deal expire, let's call it, in the spring of this year, i think that's, from what i understand, less likely now. there's just a different view of things right now, jim.

but sports programming and warner bros. discovery, whether it's the nfl, which they don't have, or whether it's the nba which they do, john malone, of course, with me last week. >> great interview. >> said it's going to be very hard for them to do the nba at the level the nba wants without a tech partner of some kind. sports rights are key here. they're putting a lot of pressure on these kpacompanies,d that's why tech has become so important. amazon, alphabet, apple, they can pay whatever they're demanding. >> if you go back to the conference call of amazon, they talked about how they got a lift from football and they love it. amazon, by the way, is really attuned to the sports world, as opposed to google. google has the nfl package. they don't seem to monetize it. >> youtube paid for sunday ticket. a lot. way more than they should have. >> that was the biggest takeaway for me of your great interview. >> thank you. we got applause here already, but that -- you know, disney had a good quarter. but what's your view on the

quarter from wbd from last week? has it changed? >> i wanted more money. looked like the whole plan was set back to be able to cut dead. that's what needs to happen. that's how you judge that stuff. >> let's get the opening bell here. at the big board, it's blackrock's ishares in celebration of life path target etfs. at the nasdaq, beekman, 1802, and ulta beauty for world kindness day. >> good products. i think it's great to see kind of, for christmas, they have a -- that's a great series of gifts. that's what people will be buying. >> oh, yes. >> you know, i don't think it's too soon to be thinking about what's going to be bought for the holidays, because we're inundated with holiday ads, the nfl, it does seem to -- i look at it, and i just think, wow.

these companies are advertising like mad. they must feel some strength of the consumer. >> well, if they're going to advertise, they're going to do it on the nfl. we just mentioned it. basically, television is the nfl. there's not much else. nfl accounted for 82 of the 100 most watched programs, including 19 of the top 20 during the 2022-'3 2022-'23 season. >> i think college -- we talk about the big ten package. it's good for comcast. comcast is the parent company of this network. >> yes, it is. >> college has some gravitas. >> colorado's been pulling in some eyeballs. >> no doubt about it. i mean, look, we all sit around, we all, let's say you do fantasy, i did daily fantasy, didn't do so well, but i did fantasy like so many other people, and you have to watch the fourth quarter. the secret of the nfl is that the fourth quarter is about fantasy.

jason robins from draftkings will tell you that. most games, if it's a blowout, you just turn it off. if it's a blowout in fantasy, that is heavy. >> well, you saw the record five walkoff field goal decisions this weekend, right? >> the nfl was heart-stopping this weekend. it was just -- i mean, i don't even know how to rank it other than to say that it was just a giant windfall for fox and cbs. >> heart-stopping? watching the new york jets is mind-numbing. >> that's true, but there were a lot of great games. >> "the marvels" is going to be the lowest open for an mcu film. >> maybe people all looked at the nfl on sunday, they didn't go. >> well, that latest marvel movie did not get well reviewed and has not done well at the box office. >> more than, i think, more than $100 million below the open of its predecessor and there's only one mcu film on deck for next year, which is "deadpool 3." iger talked about it last week. take a listen.

>> we did have four really strong titles and four of the top ten in the past year led by "avatar," of course, but there were other successes too. that said, as i have looked at our overall output, meaning the studio, it's clear that the pandemic created a lot of challenges creatively for everybody, including for us. in addition, at the time the pandemic hit, we were leaning into a huge increase in how much we were making, and i've always felt that quantity can be actually a negative when it comes to quality, and i think that's exactly what happened. we lost some focus. >> look, i think that this is -- the question will be whether peltz will come in and make a series of demands right now, and i think that it's very hard to do that, given the fact that -- >> is nelson peltz going to help them make better choices in terms of movies? >> no, that's why -- i mean, remember, marvel -- marvel was

ike perlmutter. >> it was, and ike perlmutter is basically most of the shares behind nelson right now, which is an interesting combination in the sense of, you know, nelson's got investors, but they're not really involved as much here, are they? there's not that much capital in this position as it really is nelson taking on the -- ike's position to use as the significant wedge. >> i'm sure ike is saying, look -- >> by the way, the latest thing i can tell you is, just so you know, iger has no interest in having nelson peltz on that board. >> i think that nelson peltz wants to see what happens. if i were nelson, i would want to see what happens, because you did get good numbers for streaming, and i don't know. there's some people who feel like that the content was low-balled, given the fact that there was a strike, but the cost cuts are what nelson has been wanting, and the plan for cost

cuts, $7.5 billion, are what nelson wanted. when you get what nelson wants, why should nelson challenge? >> you mentioned the strike, and certainly the sag-aftra national board is recommended approval of that, tentative. what do you make of this deal at ford and gm where some locals, jim, are narrowly voting against that tentative? >> it's just incredible how hard this thing is to resolve. and i know that ford is so anxious to put this behind them. they know they've got warranty issues. they know they now have a challenge from musk, but they really need just a break, because it's -- >> it's likely that this deal may not be approved? it's going to get approved. >> it will get approved. i think the issue is, are hybrids coming back, and are evs waning? and i think evs are waning for a host of reasons. and hybrids are doing well. >> well, phil was talking to dan about that, who now runs low carbon solutions for exxonmobil,

which is another story, but obviously, once ran crews for gm. of course, he didn't really want to offer very much, sadly. but that -- that's a key point here. although there is still growth in evs. it's not as though, jim, they're not growing. they may not be growing at quite the rate that it was or that was anticipated. >> but after that strike, david, you have to start feeling if ford wants to make more money, they got to put more resources toward hybrid. >> toward hybrid? >> yeah, hybrid is the winner here. >> meanwhile, the national gasoline average in this country's down eight straight weeks to $3.33. it's below $3 in 11 states, and if you look at futures, that implies another 10% down. >> look, all i can say is that everything's going jay powell's way. >> that's going to get reflected in certainly november's cpi, right? >> i think so. i think that there's -- despite what saudi arabia says, there's

too much oil. i don't know, other than the fact that i think china is a little bit overstated in growth. i think that we're slowing in growth. i think that we're producing 13.2 million barrels in this country. slowly, we have been overproducing, and who knows what the heck russia is doing, but i know that the world is long oil, and that is very bad for our oil companies, and david, it's very bad for exxon. >> it could be. but exxon's news today is that they're going to be a leader in supplying electric vehicles by 2030 with lithium. and they -- >> you're buying the arguments in the story? >> they joined "squawk box" to talk about -- they acquired 120,000 gross acres of the smackover formation in southern arkansas, considered one of the most prolific lithium resources of its type in north america. >> you want to go down there, you and me, get that thing straightened out? >> what are we going to straighten out? >> go down to arkansas. >> and straighten what out? >> cover it, see if it's real.

>> you don't think it's real? what do you mean? what are you talking about? >> you know, rare metals in arizona -- you know what, david? show me the money. >> well, it's going to be a while 'til there's money. >> '26 is when they start in arkansas. >> yeah. >> low carbon solutions at exxon is for real. there are those who wish they were even spending more money and/or more capital. certainly not just lithium but carbon capture, and obviously, even direct carbon capture, which oxy is sort of involved with trying to do. they announced a deal last week with blackrock. that seems to me to be a real question mark. whether that's going to ever actually be a -- certainly -- even at scale can ever really work to create profits that would give people the impetus to spend money. >> i talked to jordan from

coterra. he says, you have to see what we're doing. m methane was such a problem. the oil companies, i think, are better citizens than they used to be. >> methane has been cut back, and then you've got the likes of exxonmobil electrifying its operations in the permian, which, by the way, back to the story i cited earlier in "the journal" is putting even more more pressure on the grid in texas and new mexico where electricity production has to increase, and will, but the demands are certainly increasing significantly. >> i'm going to follow that for you. i'm going to get that. i'm going to get what goes into a datacenter who builds it. >> i want data on datacenters. i want to understand how many are being built, where they're being built. i want to understand their power supply. i want to know what's going in them. who's providing everything that is going into a datacenter? >> okay, so, what is the number one business for caterpillar? datacenter. >> really? >> everyone thinks it's china.

china isn't even top five. >> right. china's not a large percentage of the revenue. >> if you want to build a datacenter, you need caterpillar. it was widely dismissed. but that's what -- they go into infrastructure, and they go into datacenter. datacenter is a great growth area, carl, but you know, everybody shrugs that we could be having a reshoring industrial revolution as we have it. we have it going. >> conversely, boeing, back to $205, jim. this emirates deal is pretty big, 95 jets, almost $60 billion. regardless of whether china agrees to resume max purchases, do you like this? >> yeah, because boeing gets the large orders that used to go to airbus, because airbus can't make the largest plane anymore because there's only a few airports that can take it, and emirates is done with it, and emirates was the biggest buyer of the airbus big planes, the ones that had the state rooms. this is a great deal for boeing,

and i think that this is why my travel trust owned boeing, but somehow, i got talked out of it. and that was all she wrote. >> what's interesting is that we do have a sell on southwest today out of melius, in part because of the problems that boeing posed for southwest coming out of the pandemic. >> southwest has a job-like situation. i don't know what to say. they got a lot of work on their hands. and they're also in the worst areas. >> what does that mean? >> well, it isn't like they have -- you needed the international flights. that's where the gouging is. you want to gouge if you're an airline business. >> well, melius's point is that in the past, southwest would flood a market with new capacity, the legacies would get out of the way. that didn't happen this time because the legacies had so much government aid. >> that's a good point. i just think that southwest, they were hurt. they were definitely -- southwest was probably hurt by raytheon technology. southwest is hurt no matter what happens, because southwest does

not have the roots. >> and then they had some serious technology issues. >> right. >> you want to go against the grain and buy some? look at american air. it's like at the level of the pandemic. it's unbelievable. >> what happened? >> well, they spent a lot of money, labor's higher. you know, oil went up being. big. don't look at me. >> i'm asking. >> i'm not a pilot. do i look like a pilot? >> every airplane you're on is full. >> look at the three-year in american air. it's unbelievable. >> what did buffett say about u.s. air? frankly, no airline is going to be a wonderful business? >> no, and he was a u.s. air. look at that, will you? that's below pandemic >> they couldn't earn their capital and then they did. >> delta's my favorite. delta is making some money. it's just not a great business.

it's back to not being a great business because oil is not good and mostly because zoom changed it so you don't have the big execs flying up front. you just have tourists and there's been a degradation of the tourist traffic, but the people who don't work at the office do not also community work. they -- by the way, david, you see the study that says people who work at home -- i mean, people who work at home don't commute, which says they basically don't work. have you seen that? >> i haven't seen that. >> did you see that? i mean, the people who don't work -- look, people who work at home, it's not like you're looking at them and saying, hey, what are you up to? >> this is the world we live in now. i think many companies are happy with three. they asked for four. they're happy to get three. friday everywhere is just a ghost town. you walk down around here, there's nothing. >> don't you think you could advance rapidly if you came in on friday and sucked up to the

big guys? >> absolutely. that's what i tell my kids. they're going to be five days a weekers in the office. >> make sure you're there. put your chair -- you know, you should have your coat on. go out for a brewski, come back, and they're like, saying, hey, i'm going to make that guy senior vice president. hit that guy -- let me tell you something. the kid who does that, jamie dimon's successor. right there. >> advance very quickly. >> right there, david. >> very quickly. sadly, though, there's a huge -- all the people you're learning from are probably not in the office either. so, that's -- >> so you go up to jamie and say, listen, my name's jim cramer, and i'm 28, and i want to run the firm. i work six days a week, and i think he says, all right. i'm tired. >> he's going to say, "i'm tired"? >> you're 28, it's your firm. go ahead. >> i'm tired. >> i find it unbelievable. i came in at 4:30 every morning because i found that i was first and i wanted to be first.

i left last. i had great numbers and that's how i did it, okay? so, these other people who don't work on friday? good luck. what are they going to end up being? >> jim, i have no idea. >> happy. >> yeah, happy? i don't know what a career looks like more in the modern age. >> i thought they were going to placed by a.i. >> of course they will. >> if they don't come in on friday, they're going to be replaced by a.i. because who knows what to do what they're not there? jim's not there on friday. what does a.i. say? let's get the a.i. >> eventually, we're all going to be replaced. >> that is also wrong. >> no, it's not. we're still worried. we're still doomed. >> we're so not doomed. >> that hasn't changed. >> we just advance if we work harder and use copilot, and we go nowhere if we don't work friday, but that's happened. there's this whole new thing where if you go nowhere, you're happy. you can check in with the dalai

lama. >> on the dalai lama. i hear he's good. he's a big hitter. >> how was dalai lama's numbers last year? that's what i want to know. did he even win five games? i think he's like the panthers, the dalai lama. >> jim, if you are trying to understand at least the u.s. consumer is there going to be a better data point this week than walmart's call? >> no, and i think walmart is going to be real good. i think walmart is going to surprise to the upside. i think it's a great year for walmart. if anybody's been to walmart lately, they look so good. they are electric. walmart -- just apparel. i bought a pair of boots at walmart. i'm telling you, crushed it. i go fishing. i don't go to dick's sporting goods anymore. i go to walmart. >> really? >> walmart's got the sporting goods story. boom. clothes? boom. fresh food? boom.

debbie's doughnut cookies, not so boom. >> no? >> it used to be, you went in there and it was cruller heaven. you know that? >> no, i don't. >> the organic aisle, you would not think you're in the age of walmart, i'll tell you that much. >> you know what's an amazing chart is year to date walmart versus target? >> walmart is so cheap. and they don't have the theft problem either. >> why? why -- >> walmart's much cheaper and walmart has gotten more fashionable, and walmart is cheaper. >> more fashionable. they don't have the same shrink problem either? >> they don't. sometimes they have police in the stores. no one's better than tjx with those undercover guys, but david, i want you to go with me to two of my walmarts and they're going to blow you away. you will not believe. the stuff, by the way, from

bangladesh and honduras. it's like a united nations. and it's not that much china. that's what's really cool. david, their school supplies alone. >> school supplies. >> versus michaels? i would rather go to michaels for crafts, but not for anything else. >> interesting. >> everything else, i go to walmart. >> you guys should just do a doc where the two of you shop. >> aisle after aisle. >> i just follow him around. >> yeah. >> i'm like, can we leave, please? >> i'm not going to walmart. >> can we get out of here? >> walmart's all canned goods and canned string beans. the string beans are fresh as the day they were picked. >> you're sitting in the chair by the fitting room. >> every time. >> i remember walmart had giant things of malomars at the front counter. >> the 48 waist is finished. and even tyson foods is up. >> because of wegovy. yeah. it's done. >> no. it's just that -- he doesn't understand. walmart is not brioni, but it's not that far. >> that's a good quote.

we'll see what we get later in the week. big week for retail earnings. quick reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. sign up and find out more at cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on your screen. takes you right there. as we go to break, man, fed speak, almost two dozen speakers this week over the next five days. right now, yields are a bit elevated. again, on the news of that moody's negative watch on friday night. we'll be right back.

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you take these wegovys you have to have a massive amount of protein. no one is talking about it. massive amount of protein. >> corn futures three-year lows. >> they have the margins going for them. it's an exciting day, carl. i'm just reeling from david's, you know, he doesn't understand -- >> his -- >> doesn't understand walmart, nfl. i don't know. data center. >> we'll take a break here. dow down almost 40. "what should we do with it?" bacon and eggs 25/7. you're darn right. solar stocks are up 20% with the additional hour in the day. [ clocks ticking ] i'm ruined. with the extra hour i'm thinking companywide power nap. let's put it to a vote. [ all snoring ] this is going to wreak havoc on overtime approvals. anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs forward-thinking solutions to take on the next anything. (carolers) ♪ iphone 15 pro for your husband! iphone 15 pro — ♪

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great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. it's time for jim and stop trading. >> last year at this time nvidia was 149. now nvidia unveiled its h200 the highest, high-end chip for training ai models. this is not on the table with china. this has been ruled out. this is going to be the fastest and it will not be hot burning, so david won't have to worry about his -- >> his grid. >> won't have to worry about his grid, and it says right here it will not supplant humans. it does not say that. >> it sdmundoesn't.

>> it's important to know this is the one everybody has been waiting for, it burns soft and can make it so you can do decisions. no longer going to be dumb. it's going to be smart. >> you have a smart guest on tonight. >> i have sara eisen, "formula 1" taking the world by storm. >> "squawk on the street." >> it's a special. >> i think we'll go with "squawk on the street." >> look at sara in the racing pit. >> coca-cola 500, fewest people that ever watched a program in the history of cnbc. 78 of 78. we disavowed any knowledge of it, like "mission impossible." this will not be like that. >> no, it won't. this will be widely viewed. >> next nvidia, this is it. >> a ton of buzz around her doc. see you at 6:00. "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time. wedbush's dan ives, we'll get

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good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks in the early action, minor declines. s&p down about 0.4%. the dow is lower by 37%, nasdaq down 0.7. key economic reports including inflation. number of sectors on the move for you as well to take a look at here as we -- let's look at bonds. the 10-year note yield below 4.7%. firmer this morning. the 2-year yield above 5%. 30-year we're watching carefully after an auction disappointed 4.8%. next biggy is the long bond auction on monday, november 20th. here are three movers we're watching. nvidia up veiling a new lineup of ai clips for china amidst export restrictions.

exxon oil has started to drill for lithium, a component in electric vehicles after purchasing drilling rights in a long-term bet on the ev sector. watch shares of tyson under pressure after revenue misses estimates for the quarter and the forecast also comes in disappointing. i mentioned the inflation report, that's going to be the hallmark economic report coming out this week, and we're going to get ppi on top of cpi, tuesday and wednesday important, and then retail sales, which we'll be watching. a number of retail earnings to gauge how the consumer is doing. i think the commentary almost is more important sometimes on these. home depot, tj maxx. tjx has been an outperformer on value, but we're also -- it's not on the calendar -- this government shutdown potentially looming again. they have a friday deadline, so here we go again, which is also problematic. i'm not sure the market moves so much on shutdowns, but we have a

heightened focus and worry on the fiscal situation in america and it's not good. >> and you've got a new speaker, obviously, trying to put something together, but it's going to prove difficult, it would seem, in terms of bringing the coalitions together that they need to. i think the latest c.r. was -- >> lattered c.r., continuing res sflugs d-- resolution. >> unclear whether that's going to get any traction. you're right to focus people on it. only a handful days away. >> i'm not the only one. moody's came out after the close on friday, moody's the last one standing with the triple a rating for the u.s. government debt and warned that the outlook goes to negative, key driver of the outlook changed to negative as moody's assessment that the downside risks to the u.s. fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign's unique credit strengths in the contest of higher interest rates without policy measures to reduce the government spend org increase

revenues, moody's expects that the u.s. fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability. carl, it's not we didn't know or the market didn't know, but it is a reminder. it's not the greatest look, as we have these bilateral meetings between yellen and her counterpart in china and xi and president biden this week for apec. they're our largest creditor. >> 800 billion of treasuries what they hold. >> lowest in ten years. >> down. >> but it's a huge amount. >> it is. >> it's not great that on top of the fact that we can't -- i mean, embarrassingly can't keep the government open, it would seem. >> can't seem to pass a budget. >> pass a sfwhujts then you have the warnings that are throughout consistently. as you take a look at mike johnson going to join "squawk box" tomorrow. we'll get questions and see if we get any answers about where things stand there.

you know, begunlach stuck in my head, the idea 50% of our debt coming due in the next three years for refinancing and if rates are near where they are the interest costs will swamp -- >> that's a huge problem what we're paying on interest because of the higher rates. either rates come down to alleviate the problem or they come up with a plan to get our fiscal house in better shape. you know, the u.s., while we have our fiscal problems, i want to highlight because this week is about the u.s.-china relationship the chart on china to watch is the demographics. they've got problems as well, and that's sort of their maybe biggest economic hurdle. they're facing short-term problems around property sector and debt and all that, but, you know, the demographic problem, the share of china's -- of the world population that is china's economy is set to dramatically decrease over the next few

years. they have low fertility rates, they have high youth unemployment, we already know that, so much so they don't publish -- >> won't give us the numbers any longer. >> they have a stark gender imbalance. historically for china, that -- we have demographic problems in this country as well, but for china that has been the engine of growth. here's a great one that's the share of china's population, which i mentioned. it's basically set to decline. china's the second yellow line at the very bottom. all the others are the other big growers like india. >> once you begin the decline there's very little you can do to stop it. xi is trying. the most recent meeting, sort of encouraging women to stay home and not enter the workforce. >> see what that -- how powerful that is. >> but convincing people to have more children is not an easy thing to do. >> it's not a topic of conversation with this week or

anything else. i want to show it because it alters the power dynamics, right, if it's going to alter china's economic strength and power in the long term, it hangs over everything. i thought it was an important chart. >> we'll be talking about them in the coming days. s&p closing above 4400 for the first time since mid september. our next guest like uber caps going into year end. christopher harvey, wells fargo security, head of equity strategy at post nine. welcome. >> good to be here. >> basically it's your target now, right? >> that's right. >> you feel good standing pat for the next six weeks? >> pretty good. we still think a couple things. you could go higher, but if you go higher we don't want people to be greedy, take some profits, be more defensive, and in the short term we could see a sell the news around the xi-biden event because you have a lot of good news priced into that. you have people looking forward to that, and that announcement might disappoint. that's a short-term issue. >> why uber caps? because it has worked? >> well, it has worked. balance sheets are great.

better earnings. they have the ai kicker. if you look at the economy, the economy is in an economic malaise and if you're looking at value, smaller caps, they don't work in this kind of environment. >> that's why the russell was down almost every day last week, right? >> yeah. >> the spread between small and large is historic. >> yeah. russell has hard time. russell was almost in a bear market. when rates go hire the economy is not really working. small caps risk. they have a difficult time getting out of their on way. in this environment it's about growth, it's about high quality growth and that's what's working and will continue to work. one thing, if you look at a lot of defensive sectors, whether it's staples or utilities, they are reaching oversold levels and that's something we're thinking about a lot more closely. >> one thing you talked about last week was that the rate rise last couple years might have undone svb, bulls you say it was not a -- but you say it was not a clearing event and the 30-year auction implies there's still

some work to do or consequences to be had? >> there's a lot of work to do. if you look at duration, duration is in really weak hands, right. what we've done is, we've mispriced duration for a long period of time. svb was an event not a clearing event, a lot of those portfolios are still under water. a lot of the duration players don't have the risk to put on, and if you can't do that, right, we could see rates back up pretty aggressively. rates backed up, they just floated up not for fundamental reasons but because people couldn't put on that risk and that hasn't gone away. the last thing we may see before year end, we may see tax law selling in bonds, something we haven't seen in years. >> you said something earlier about the xi-biden meeting and might disappoint. i'm curious what you think the market's expectation is there? because i thought it was pretty low expectations as far as what we expect to happen? >> if you look at the equity market run, especially over the last couple days and couple weeks, it's been pretty aggressive. i think people are looking at what's happened a lot of tech, a

lot of the bigger cap companies have rallied on that. they're going to come out with something positive, but i just don't think it's going to be positive enough, and are the expectations low? they might be ow, but the market is not acting as if it's low. we had a heck of a run -- >> isn't that about lower bond yields? >> bond yields haven't moved that low. we're at 4.60 something, so -- >> not 5%. feels better. >> no doubt it feels better, but we're coming from sub-4200, you can only account for a certain amount. one of the things i think is also happening is, we went through earnings season and we saw margins expand an saw revenue from contraction to growth. something is happening on the fundamental side that we did not expect and i think the market is appreciating that. >> something good happening on the fundamental side, right? we had our first quarter over quarter year of eps growth since ''22. >> the qualitative and quantitative aren't matching. you talk to c-suite auld time.

the consumer is difficult, economy is difficult, rates are higher, but you look at the qualitative information and it's much better. it's broad basted. we thought that margin expansion was only going to be a couple companies. it's broad-based, across sectors and stocks. people are talking about productivity, productivity enhancements and that's sticky and stays around for a while. >> one thing you said in the summer was that fed rate pause might allow ai to go next level if 99, 2000 is any guide. still looking out for that? >> that's why -- that's one of the reasons we're still positive on uber caps, right. the other thing going to happen and this is not a great this but during a war, technology often advances. we have a couple wars going on. there could be some applications from those wars that filter back into the mainstream,and so we could see that adaptation happen a lot sooner than we expect. >> chris, good to see you. >> good to see you. >> chris harvey, wells. as we go to break our road

map for the hour including where to put your money to work in tech. we'll check in with wedbush's dan ives. >> the read on china as san francisco hosts the leaders for the apec summit. what is at stake for our two countries? >> infection star toto wolf with us this hour, ahead of a huge grand prix in vegas. it's an interview you do not want to miss. one of those famous team bosses as head of mercedes. we'll be right back. invest i. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network.

boeing is one of the top gainers on the dow up almost 4% on the back of positive headlines involving orders. let's get to phil lebeau who tracks more or less anything that moves. he tracks it. including boeing. >> and david, there are a couple headlines here. we'll talk about china in labor. let's talk about the order that boeing logged today in the middle east at the dubai air show. this is with emirates airlines for 90 777-x planes. these are the next generation 777, the 9 and 8. these go into production next year or 2026. once that happens they will be the first to get the airlines. five dream liners. total estimate $52 billion going by list price. remember, these planes never go for list price.

typically there's about a 40 to 50% discount off the price. emirates dreamliner order book, how many they now have, stands at 35. that's just the dreamliner. separate from the 777-x much larger than that. boeing is increase its 787 production going up to 5 per month by the end of this year. another reason shares are moving higher, that china will commit to ordering more when president xi meets with president biden in california later this week that's according to the report that you'll get a commitment from china. doesn't mean there's going to be an order placed at that time, but guys, keep in mind, you're looking at shares of boeing going all the way back to the beginning of 2017. that is the last time, 2017, is the last time that china placed an order for new boeing aircraft. they know it's coming eventually.

the question is when and perhaps on wednesday when xi and biden meet, there will be some news, at least a commitment to order boeing planes again. >> phil, it's a perfect place for us to start with our next guest because we are going to talk about china and boeing. thank you. phil lebeau. as i just said, of course, that highly anticipated meeting is coming up between president biden and china's president xi that will be on wednesday. the so-called apec summit. it will be in san francisco. our next guest says, quote, all issues are now on the table. let's bring in jeff moon, former assistance u.s. trade rep for china and china moon strategies founder and president. jeff, always appreciate you joining us to take us through. why do you say and what does that mean when you say all issues are on the table? >> really goes back to august of 2022 when nancy pelosi visited taiwan. china cut off most diplomatic and contacts, and in november of

that year the presidents agreed they would take steps to restore the relationship, so that was what the series of visits earlier this year was all about, and that was all designed to culminate in this summit this week and to restore relations. so you hear in the news that they are talking about the full range of things they weren't willing to talk about before. military to military relations, climate, maybe fentanyl, talk about ai. so we are talking about a much broader range of issues, and this cycle that china has gone through to punish the u.s. for the pelosi visit is coming to a conclusion and hopefully we can get back to serious business, and there's no time to lose. there's a lot that's happening in the world that requires the attention of both countries. >> there is an awful lot. it's funny, we were covering singles day in china and i was thinking, i was there nine years ago in shanghai and how it was, you know, the relationship between the two countries,

china's economy, you know, things are so different now, but you seem to believe that they've hit bottom. i'm not talking about their economy. team talking about relations between china and the u.s. you believe things can get better? all they've done in the last nine years it feels like is get worse. >> well, we are at a low. what i was saying is over the past year or so we've seen the pattern of coercion retaliation that china exerts when it's displeased. it cuts off some political or economic benefit, tries to blame the other side and elicit sincerity in the form of concessions and they restore their relationship. that's what's happening right now. it just so happens the same thing is happening with australia on a different range of issues. so what's going to happen at this summit is that china is rolling out a lot of these sorts of ceremonial or procedural things they've done with other summits, people to people

relations, a dinner with the business community, things like that, but unlike in previous suts summits, there's not much of a budge on politics. >> i wonder how geopolitics changes the dynamic now? he what's happened is china and the u.s. are backing different horses in russia and ukraine and israel and hamas. this isn't just about u.s.-china relations anymore. >> no. absolutely not. the other thing that's happened that's very interesting over the past year and a half, while china has been, quote, punishing the united states, they've also been putting out a series of global governance initiatives defining what they think is their vision for moving forward in the world and it's different from the democratic vision, a way to justify the authoritarian system they have. the chinese claim they have a better way than the west does, and they're shopping it to the global south and so you have a

point. we are seeing a division between the u.s. and china and the way that they're trying to lead the world through the governance systems and divisions that they have. >> yeah. when we think about geopolitics right now and the dangerous place we seem to be, there's an idea that russia, china, iran, are sort of coalescing in not a good way for us. that wouldn't set up a great dynamic for this meeting. >> no. this meeting is a bilateral meeting and i think they're going to talk about a lot of the bilateral issues. i mean, that's where you get into things like trade or other things, but there will be an international component and multinational component and they will talk about ukraine, they will talk about the middle east. one way iran comes into the picture is that actually in the middle east, iran can talk to various factors, china can talk to various factions through iran that u.s. could not. the chinese could be helpful in terms of getting iran being more

amenable to negotiation and moderating behavior. >> do you think them include a boeing order in here? >> i think they probably will. this is something that has frequently happened in the past n past summits. when i was in the state department i've been in meet where is they come in and talk about the number of planes that will be bought. this is not anything different. it is not a concession to the united states. this is way for china to signal it wants to do business with the united states and, so i wouldn't be surprised at all if this is an accurate report. >> jeff, always appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. big week for retail earnings. walmart, target, home depot on deck. we'll unveil our new cnbc retail tracker, what it tells you about main street spending behavior right now. numbers may surprise you. stay with us. back in two with the dow down about 50 points. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses

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♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. after the break dan ives with tech predictions for the new year. the tech bull market has begun.

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tech is coming off this huge rally last week now up 10% for the month. our next guest says a new tech bull market has begun and tech stocks are set up for a strong '24 as the ai spending tidal wave begins to hit the shores. top picks are apple, microsoft and google. joining us at post nine dan ives wedbush securities analyst. great to have you back. >> great to be here. >> sounds like you think it will be about spending and use cases, which are going to explode in the coming quarters, i guess? >> yeah. to me it's about use cases. we right now have about 80 use cases for ai, based on all of our survey work.

three months ago that was 15 to 20. i think that's what we're seeing even in earnings. if you look at microsoft and data dog, now it's the first, second derivative. we believe the third and fourth wit hill in 2024 n, in my opini, the new tech bull market has begun. >> will that manifest and ignite in the aws reinvent events? >> i think it's going to be front and center. you saw nadella and now jassy and aws, google, oracle, going to be another one, i think that's the key from an install base perspective. you look at adobe and oracle, salesforce, and right now, the top of the mountain is, of course, microsoft, but you look at what aws is doing, a huge monetization for them. i believe that's the golden goose, what this is going after and we think it's a trillion of dollars spend over the next decade going to hit the shores of tech. >> enterprise tech only or

consumer tech too? >> i think enterprise is 8 to 10 x, the opportunity right now of consumer tech. when you look at consumer tech, i think that ultimately is the latter part where we'll see the google, meta, from a consumer advertising perspective. right now, the use cases that we're seeing explode is in enterprise. >> what are you seeing that others are not seeing that have seen the run up in the stocks this year and said they've dominated and it's a rally that's going to expand we need to see more participation not just from the tech stock? >> sure. i think for us, we saw it front in center not just use cases but what suppliers are talking about. you look through the supply chain, i think it all starts with chips, and i think what we're seeing right now is an underestimation of what the demand looks like from the chip sector and software. i think when you look at names like microsoft, that first now is starting to see the use cases explode, data dog, palantir, the

golden child of ai, that's how it's going to form. in terms to sara's point the next we'vave is small and mid t. a lot of bears are coming out of hibernation mode and believe they go back in, in a tech that could be up 8 to 10% more in year end. >> the use case scenario, co-pilot is out there and then the idea there are going to be other tools shared by the big players for smaller enterprises. what are you talking about? use cases from companies for their customers or microsoft providing stuff into the enterprise? >> use case -- now it's use cases that companies we're talking about across verticals from life sciences, pharmaceutical, financials, government, where they're now seeing the use cases, now they're building. it where are they building it? on microsoft, aws, google, gcp

and that's why what we're starting to see in earnings season the next phase of that, not just nvidia. now you're seeing microsoft, data dog, i believe snowflake and many other, salesforce included, and i think that's what we're going to be talking about. you've always talked about use cases, what are the use cases. we've done survey with 670 end prizes, 80% said they plan to aggressively spend on ai, companies in 2024. we think it could be up to 8 to 10% of budgets from less than 1%. >> is it the learning curve, everybody getting comfortable in understanding again the use case or how it can help them and how long does that take? >> yeah. i think what's happened is that the last three to four months, a lot of these companies, cios have kicked the tires and done the trials and beta periods and it's clear roi. if i spend 1 or $2 million, i could get that back in the

course of two or three months. the roi is there, board driven and not just hype. you're starting to seat use cases explode and that's why it starts with nvidia and then goes to microsoft and all the hyper scale players and to me, it's not just five or seven players. as we look out you're going to have 15, 20, 25 players across software and chips participating. >> finally, what if rates spike againor what if rates come down and the market looks for other stuff to own as they start to price in a different rate regime? >> that's been the albatross for shadows and tech stocks here and something we have to fight, but i view it as if i look at just going into next year, as long as there's no more what i view as black swan events in terms of just the actual spend here, i think tech stocks, they're mispriced where i view tech stock up 20% into the next year. we could have definitely blips

and, of course, you know, fed speak, ten year and a lot of worries out there, but to me this is going to be a golden age for tech. it's ai driven. i think ultimately that's why i believe the star of the new tech bull market has begun. >> the companies have to be profitable now? >> i think that's where you are seeing a higher bar in terms of what's going to come public and investors want to own. more pressure to be profitable and that's where it goes to. this is more of a 1995 moment in terms of tech spending from the star of the internet, but the differences, the profitability business models valuations, i just don't put in a one-year p/e box relative to p/e. i think if you look out next two, three, four years, i believe tech is underst price here. >> the install tech base is a different world than in the mid-90s. >> that's a great point why adobe and oracle, nadella has a bottle of champagne with feet on the desk, they know that

microsoft is going at it. >> nadella has a bottle of champagne with his feet on the sdmevg. >> so to speak. >> because they recognize the opportunity. jassy is another one, recognize. you look at what google is doing as well. the install base plays here are going to play out. m&a, cisco-splunk, tip of the iceberg to what we will see here what i view as more tech friendly despite ftc where tech is not afraid of that given what we've seen with microsoft and activision and others. >> we will hear from microsoft this week as well. dan ives. >> huge week for retailer names, walmart, home depot and target among the names set to report cnbc is teaming up with the national retail federation and data insights company affinity solutions to launch a real-time how much and where american consumers are spending each month. to steve liesman with the details. >> it's exciting.

thank you. the cnbc retail monitor powered by affinity solutions launching in october with a decline of 0.8%. our number and core retail takes restaurants down 0.3. both are down from gains in the prior months year over year, the headline down 2.6 versus 4.9 and then the core retail number 2.6 versus 4.4. these are seasonally adjusted numbers, no other way to report retail except for seasonally adjusted. over the past year this data has been gradually slowing, kind of bucking or going against the trend reported by the government which has shown surprising strength among the consumer. gasoline station sales down 1.7, electronic and appliances down 1.4, furniture and home furnishings down, but we have health care and nonstore retailers, a really good internet indicator and sporting goods and hobbies on the month.

affinity's data from 9 billion credit and debit card transactions. 1400 card issuers all accounting for more than half a trillion dollars in sales and unlike the government, sara, their retail sales data from surveys. the retail monitor doesn't need to be revised because it comes from transactions. a week before the retail data on a monthly basis. >> sounds good to get the real-time tracking data on credit cards. should we look at this as a way to tell we're going to get retail sales report this week, as way to tell where that's going? how does it track if you look back, can you tell at all? >> we can. it tracks reasonably well the existing census data. what we find is that when we go back and look at our data versus the revised census data it correlates more closely suggesting that we're giving you a better first look at this data because again, it's coming from

transactions. there will be changes that have to be made over time where seasonally adjusting the data using the same program used by the government. their data shows a lot more vol t -- volatility than others does. >> you mentioned, you know, you take out restaurants and the services spending is what has been troubling for the fed, worried about bringing inflation down. goods spending has it bottomed yet? >> this could be the beginning of a bottom and you mentioned services. sara, we're just beginning to cut this data up. we are going to be able to look at services. we're going to be able to drill down, for example, if there's a hurricane in a certain place, we can look at the retail spending in that area. we're going to be able to drill down the holiday spending. also coming up in the next couple months one of the things i'm excited about, cut the data demographically. look at it by income and age and

by geographic areas so that we can see how is the lower income consumer doing versus the higher income consumer. >> should be interesting with all the worries about student loan payment resumptions. >> steve liesman with our new retail data. let's get to news update now, courtney reagan? >> thank you very much. the main hospital in gaza is no longer functioning and this is coming from the world health organization today which is warning of a, quote, dire and perilous situation for the hundreds of patients and others trapped inside the complex, as israeli troops and hamas bat until surrounding areas. a shakeup in british politics, rishi sunak brought in david cameron to be foreign minister and fired suella braverman responsible for law enforcement and national security after she wrote an op-ed ahead of demonstrations where she criticized police and called protesters hate marchers.

the presidential field got smaller. senator tim scott suspended his candidacy. the south carolina republican made the announcement last night saying the voters have been clear that now is notthe time for him to run. sara, back over to you. >> thank you very much. courtney reagan. after the break mercedes infection team boss toto wolff joins us ahead of a huge race in cunty gas and head of our domearthursday. don't miss it. we'll be reich. -- right back.

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just a few days away from a test from one of the u.s.'s fastest growing sports formula 1 kicking off what is expected to be a star-studded grand prix race in las vegas later this week. i've spent the last few months diving deeper into the sport attending across north america and europe and interviewing the key players in the space for a documentary that is set to debut

thursday called "inside track, the business of formula 1." cnbc 8:00 p.m. eastern and pacific. here to discuss ahead of the action mercedes-amg petronas formula 1 team principal toto wolff who does star in the documentary. good to see you. >> good to see you, sara. >> you're gearing up for vegas. liberty media, parent company of f1 has spent a fortune on this race. how important is it for the future of formula 1? >> it's big because, obviously, we have been chasing a lot of attention to the united states as one of the most important markets and since we had these great traditional races in austin and then miami and we're going big in las vegas, street circuit has been purpose built and yeah, we are super excited. >> how do you quantify the impact that it will have on the sport and on the sport's growth in the u.s. market?

>> liberty has made a considerable investment in las vegas building their own structure, and i hope that it will be one of the great attractions in the united states. now, hopefully, you know, this weekend have lots of great people and excitement and entertainment. >> how do you think about where growth is going in the u.s. market? in the documentary i look at some of the story, drive to survive on netflix, a big part of it, the miami race, now vegas, but how much more space do you think there is to grow here? >> i think we have a pretty good setup at the moment. we're racing in montreal and in mexico city, so our footprint is good there. i would say this is a correct representation of a global sport in formula 1.

it is a market that is highly important for us, and since "trying to survive" and the great entertainment the sport has provided, the championship in 2021, we have seen that nominal growth in the united states. >> we have. i don't have to tell you, this year, max verstappen just won in brazil his 17th race of the season. a record streak. how problematic is that for the sport? >> well, as you know, we have some devoted mercedes fans out there, small and larger, and it's about us, you know, striking back. you cannot complain if you're one of the teams that's at the moment only second. we are second in the world championship, but we got to come up with a better car, better performances in order to beat them. obviously, for fans, it's much better if there's a close race until the end between two or more drivers, but it's up to us. >> yeah. you're focused on the development for the 2024 car. we're at the end of the season

now. how confident are you that you are going to have a car that can compete with red bull? >> never in my life i have been confident more the glass half empty guy, always looking into the abyss rather than being optimistic, but i think we are well on track for next year. it's completely changed the concept of our car that was really not performing as we expected in the last two years, so we've got to give it everything, develop the car as good as we can, have the drivers in a good frame of mind and attack next year. if we have done a good enough job, we will see by then. >> i have -- people always ask, now that i've done a deep dive into this sport, which is more important the car or the driver? this is something we talk about, you talk about. is the car more important than the driver? you've got lewis hamilton, arguably one of the best drivers in history. >> you're the expert. what would you judge?

>> what i say is the car is most important, but you can't have a winning car without a winning driver as well. the worst driver in a winning car will not cut it and red bull is showing us that. >> you see, sara, you are the expert. it's, you know, the best driver in a bad car is never going to win a race or championship, but equally you can't win a championship with the best car and the driver not be good at this game. i think fundamentally you need a strong car and then it's about adding it with the best possible driver you can have and that's going to be the winning formula. >> the other question we get, i we dive into this question in the documentary, and i'm curious, toto, how you answer this question, is whether f1 has peaked? what do you think? >> i think you got to be wary all the time. we're in a great place in markets including the united

states that are growing audiences and the most important demographic, and that happens in other places in the world, but we fundamentally need to provide it with good entertainment. it's an honest new sport. it's watching. the stop watch never lies. the entertainment is the consequence. we don't want to do scripted content. if the sport works well, if we're able to show great fighting on the track and great competition, i think we can grow from there. nothing that speaks against it. it needs the characters, needs the fights on track, and if we can combine that i think we can grow and continue to grow. >> what about on the business side of it? you guys have -- every team gets sponsors. you put the sponsors on the side of the car and work with them. overall, f1 gets sponsors. is there a finite amount of space there? do you get higher prices as you run out of space for sponsors? i'm curious about the business trajectory as well?

>> as we've discussed very often, several pilars of our income streams and formula 1 income, which is sponsorship, promotion deals and tv deals, are very important, and that's going very strong. as to the driver's own revenue, besides all of that is sponsorship. and we are keen in staying loyal to longer-term relationships or to start new exciting journeys with new partners. there's a lot of interest from technology environment in the united states. we're talking about some really, really good and big brands. so, yeah, we are always keen in keeping the level and the quality of the sponsors high. we don't want to add amount of number of new partners because we want to provide the best experience and the best possible return on investment of their marketing dollars. >> it's great to talk to you ahead of the big week. i'll see you later in vegas.

thank you very much for coming on. >> see you in vegas. >> toto wolff, head of the mercasrcedes deem. "inside track: the business of formula 1" thursday at 8:00 p.m. right here on cnbc. toto wolff does play a big role. i'm not going to get away too much, but i get in a car with him. he's a former racer himself. >> top speed? >> they go more than 200. >> how fast did you go? >> 180. >> wow. >> and i was terrified. it also was a blast. >> you may have a second career after this, consulting with f1. >> i don't know about that, but it was a lot of fun. there's a lot to learn. there we are in the pit garage where the cars are. >> that is amazing. >> these cars are amazing. >> that was montreal. >> what are they spending on this car? >> the r & d that goes into the car is like $50 million and the cars are a few million dollars. >> $50 million. >> and guess what. they go to the museum after the end of the season and they redo

a new car. they are -- as toto says, engineering miracles, these cars. >> here you are. i saw you had a helmet in hand. that must about -- you must have been about to get in. >> the helmet for the hot lap. >> i cannot wait. still to come, one of the biggest sovereign wealth funds in the world, nearly $700 billion in assets. the head of singapore sovereign wealth fund is with us in about ten minutes. i was only 23 when i was first diagnosed with non-melanoma skin cancer. 40 years later, i've had almost 20 mohs surgeries. i had just accepted that the pain and the scars were going to be part of my life. but when i was diagnosed with two basal cells on my face, i became determined to find an alternative to surgery.

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learn how you can get $1000 back for your business today. comcast business. powering possibilities. a number of movers to get to with dom chu. >> good morning, carl. shares of tesla have been moving between gains and losses in early trading but now solidly higher. up by over 3%. right around session highs. getting some attention on news that the electric vehicle giant is updating the terms of its cyber truck order agreements that stipulates purchasers of that ev are prohibited from selling it inside the first year of ownership without permission from tesla or they could face possible legal action and/or the loss of privileges of buying future tesla vehicles. we're watching shares of nvidia. the chipmaker is up near session highs right now, working on a nine-day winning streak. nvidia right now up about -- fractionally here, unveiling one of its newest chips for training and enabling artificial

intelligence computer models. that graphics processing unit or gpu includes capabilities that will help it generate text, images or prediction based on those a.i. models. we'll cap things off with shares of cyber security company crowdstrike hitting a fresh high, up 1.75%. helped along by analysts at stiefel. the target price goes to $225. they see a slew of positive catalysts in the future that can help it fuel better growth, better profit margins and free cash flow margins. back over to you. >> dom chu back at hq. taking a look at noticvo nordisk. we got the specifics or a lot more data from the select trial testing the impact of wegovy on

cardiovascular outcomes. that was presented this weekend. there seems to be something of a mixed reaction. generally the research i've been reading this morning is quite positive in terms of what it meant for reducing cardiovascular events in what will be a very large population. of course, weight reduction being a key part of that. the key question, will insurers say yes, and more importantly down the road, will medicare be willing to cover this drug? quk t see cties right after this. don't go anywhere. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business.

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see the best trolls movie yet. stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. ha, ho, whoa! poppy, i'm your sister. my what? whoa. hey man, am i the only one without a long lost sibling? good monday morning. welcome to another hour of s "squawk on the street." one of barron's advisers, holly newman kroft is here with her look at the market as we head into year-end. wheaton is outperforming both gold and silver this year. the ceo will join us on the heels of results. it's one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the year, $700 billion in assets. the head of singapore's sovereign wealth fund is with us this hour. dow just eking into the green. s&