>> anastasia? >> internet stocks, if consumers will shop this holiday season they'll do it online and i'm sticking with those. >> joe t.? >> you do know i like stocks at all-time highs. cadence design all-time high. >> you did coin the phrase, buy high, sell higher. >> that's right, and that will happen with cadence. >> thanks, everybody. i'll see you on "closing bell." that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans and here is what's ahead. once again, we are days away from a government shutdown and if we don't get a deal by this friday that could put thanksgiving travel in the crosshairs, oh, boy, and why analysts are more positive a deal will happen this time around and what that will mean for the market, xhoot and wars oversea. plus a, a lot has happened since xi was in the u.s. and a pandemic, a war and europe and the tone in china seems to be shifting toward the u.s. and

what you need to know and what other stocks could benefit aside from boeing and a realtime gauge how the consumer is doing and the data wall street wants to get his hands on and she brings it to us straight ahead in just a couple of minutes and first, let's get the lowdown on the shutdown situation and emily wilkins is on capitol hill with the very latest. >> house republicans released their proposal this weekend to avoid a government shutdown. so the plan is temporary funding, but it splits the government funding into two groups and lawmakers would have until january 19th to work on the first one and then until february 2nd to negotiate on the other. house speaker mike johnson decided to leave out conservative priorities and things like spending cuts and border security measures and doing so could potentially win him democratic support, and it's lost the support of half a dozen republicans including congressman bob good. he tweeted today that he is opposed to the stopgap that has been proposed because it contains no spending reductions and no border security and no

policy wins for the american people. he's still committed to working with speaker johnson and his house colleagues to chart a better path forward, but at this point the bill that was released and time is quickly running out. republicans are playing that in the house on thursday. democrats have also come out with some concerns against the republicans bill with white house press secretary cakarine jean-pierre for a government shutdown and they'll need to clear several procedural hurdles to do so and the senate is also working on their own stopgap measure and we can see details early on that as soon as today. kelly? >> emily, i'm about to ask my next guest about this and was there any reaction to the moody's move on friday when they downgraded to negative? >> i think a lot of lawmakers were keeping their eye on that and they are very much aware for the credit rating agency and the

process, it's just not clear that this is going to be doing much. a lot of lawmakers are looking to partisan tensions and they're looking for their constituents and a lot of them have dug in here on the issues that they're going to be pushing forward to on the n week. >> libby cantrell's note this afternoon from over at pimco, she says she thinks the odd of a shutdown have declined as the speaker has rolled out this two-tiered cr. is that a mood that you're generally sensing over well? >> the one thing that maybe made people more optimistic about avoiding a shutdown is the fact that this spending bill doesn't include any of those conservative priorities and it seems like it's an olive branch to mike johnson saying hey, we're trying this two-tiered approach and that was certainly a conservative idea from the republicans, but at the same point, it seems he's trying to move half way and something that the democrats would be openly opposed to and chris murphy said he's not onboard with the idea,

but it is something that he is game to look at. so we'll have to see how that plays out over the next week although there are a number of democrats who said the plan is dead on arrival. >> emily, finally on this issue how this proposal contains no funding for israel. remind me, that separate package that $100 billion, did they move forward on that with funding from israel, ukraine and others or if there is no funding for israel in this package, what does that mean? >> they haven't moved on that yet, but there is still work being done. it's the israel funding that has support and so the thought is to sort of give republicans something they want, border security along with that ukraine funding and there is a group of senators who is trying to find a bipartisan solution when it comes to the border, when it comes to immigration and then pair that with ukraine funding and israel funding. certainly, all of those things are still on the table, but we've got five days left before a shutdown, and i think the thought is that they need to focus on getting that done

first. >> emily wilkins, thank you for now. we appreciate it. >> let's turn to miami guinness for response to the federal budget. good to have you here, and i want to start by asking you about that moody's move on friday? >> what we heard out of moody's was nothing that anyone watching in this country doesn't know, one, we are borrowing too much and our politicians are not -- to solve problems. it was a vote of no confidence that makes absolute sense. we are close to debt levels and our interest rate payments are starting to go up quickly. we have trust funds that are going to become insolvent, but the real problem is congress is not able to come up with the hard measures to address this. so it's a warning and we've heard it from the other rating agencies that there is no reason to look at fiscal policy and say we're anywhere close to the right course and the concern is what are our politicians going

to do to change course and that's still a question. that's sort of the bigger picture for the coming years. >> a lot of people seem to assume that if the process is cleaner. in other words, if we don't have shutdowns, we don't fight about the debt ceiling, that would maybe take care of some of the rating agency responses here. i'm not so sure that would be the case. if we just agree to continued crs and the budget position remains what it is, could you see moody's and the others continue to downgrade u.s. credit even with those deals in place? unfortunately, yes. it is to stop governing by prices which it is reit now. they can't get anything done until the deadline is passed. what i think we have is a position where the parties are so entrenched and so busy fighting each other they're not willing to make hard choice e think about the long term fiscal situation, compromise, do any of the things that are really required to deal with the big, structural problems facing the u.s. in terms of fiscal policy

which are growing entitlement programs, social security and medicare. >> right. >> and the fact that you don't have enough revenues to cover those. do you see anybody willing to talk about those tough issues in the near future? i really don't. even if they stop flirting with shutdowns and default which obviously are no way to govern. >> is there any way in which the bad deficit situation we're in now is still somehow a relic of the pandemic because when you look through the line-items and figure out how we got here. for instance, the entitlement problems and we had medicare and those are going away as inflation normalizes and another weird spending and the fdic bailouts and a lot of these bizarre one-offs that pushed us into a structurally bad place. can that somehow resolve itself so things look better in a couple of years' time or no? >> yeah. it's a great question, and it goes to the point that borrowing for covid was the absolute right thing to do. it's the fact that we've been borrowing on the buildup to covid when the borrowing was strong and since then since the

economy is strong we're still borrowing, but the answer to the question is no. there were a number of one-off things that affect the deficit this year and it ended up being 2 trillion and doubled from where it was last year, but even as though one-offs pulled back and i will say there are probably likely to be more because as you pointed out, we will see emergency spendsing and supplementals in the coming months and coming years and the stru structural problems and the growing health care costs and aging which are the fastest growing part of the budget. those are not going to shift away and we'll see the course we're on to borrow $20 trillion over the next decade and that's not going to fix themselves for sure and it's not anything that we saw and those things are only going get worse. maya, we'll leave it there. we appreciate it very much. maya macguineas. krishna, i appreciate you

joining us on the line. michael hartnett at bank of america highlighted and said the worst credit, event would be wh interest rates rise and it's a possibility for the next 18 months' time. >> so i think it's pretty unlikely on this kind of time line that you're talking about and we're still thinking of an environment in which a sufficiently serious recession would be disinflationary, would result in inflation coming down and therefore tend to be associated with bond yields do having to ask this question right now is telling you just how much has changed in the last few years. >> right. it would be the biggest nightmare because here's the thing. in a recession, that typically means lower bond yields and the only problem this time around is it also hurts revenues. so if recession means the

situation gets worse i'm trying to figure out how people can respond to that in terms of the ten-year yield. >> i think this is also the possibility of a milder version of what you described where yields come down in a recession and not down as much as we've gotten used to in the past and that would be difficult for investors in terms of portfolio performance and it would also be i difficult policymakers because what are the assists you get when you're trying to pull an economy out of a recession. is the bond market taking yields down a lot and if yields don't come down and they come down as much as they have in the past, then itself would create problems. >> and the final, big picture question, krishna, is, what do you think is the next move in bond yields and how that will affect everything from stocks to the economy and the impact, you know that the fiscal situation has on that. where do you think we're going next?

>> so, i think it's notable, very obviously that yields backed off 5% on a ten-year. i'm not a believer in the idea that u.s. yields would go durably back above 5%, 5.5 or whatever that some folks are looking at. i do think that yields will be a bit lower than they are to date, but i worry that this yield drama is not over yet. yields have been very volatile in recent weeks. we've seen a bad option last week and result a bump in yields, and i think these dynamics around debt issuance and around the increasing resistance, price resistance from investors, and i worried that this isn't played out and we could yet see another spike up in yield before we are on the far side of this. >> krishna, we appreciate being able to check in with you.

thank you for your time. >> krishna guha, isi. macro fundamentals will support the markets from here. let's bring in dan suzuki from richard bernstein advisers. good to see you. welcome. >> good to see you, kelly, always. >> maya macguineas' position doesn't expect a shutdown maybe more of a january, february issue if they can get this resolved. what does that mean to you for how the markets perform until year end? >> kelly, i don't think it really makes a huge difference. obviously, it has a big impact on sentiment and has a very near-term on sort of the economy, but as we've seen time and time again, you take away, you get back, you know, as soon as the resolution hits and it's more of a timing shift, which if you're thinking about equity investors and profits and discounting future results, it really didn't make a huge difference and it does shift the timing potentially until next

year. if you get a resolution in the near-term, there's no reason that the markets can continue to rally and focus on the fundamentals of improving profits and slightly improving liquidity and huge opportunities within the market. >> tell me about that. i need to be convinced today at a time when i'm still looking through the unemployment rate metrics and the possible recession triggers that are out there how you guys can look at the fundamentals and feel really good about it. >> i think the first thing to point out, kelly, i'm sure you're aware that there is a huge divergence between what's happening with the economy and what's happening with the corporate profits. >> the economy has been chugging along like everything's healthy whereas corporate profits were in a recession and the third quarter will be the first quarter of positive growth that we've seen in some time and so to that extent, corporate profits have felt a lot of the pain and things are getting less bad and the process well into the recovery whereas the economy

which is much more sensitive to the u.s. consumer is slowly and gradually starting to slow, but i think the ultimate level of balance sheets and incomes are such that it will take a while to turn that super tanker around to get the economy to actually fall through a recession. not that it's not going to happen, but it's not going to happen imminently. >> so you think the profits recovery is under way and should provide support for cheap cyclicality. where do you think would be the most attractive parts of the market and what is the price target for the s&p? >> i'll answer the second part first and the best part of not being a south side strategist anymore is not having to come up with a s&p target which is meaningless. as a buy side as an investor you are focused on higher or lower. as i said, in the very near-term, the risk starts to the upside and what's the best way to play that? profits are indeed requiring in the sample. i think energy and industrials are probably some of the better ways to play that.

there are more late cyclical sectors and late economically cyclical sectors and with some defensive, high quality areas like healthcare and also makes sense given where we are. >> what would it take for you guys to change your tune? are you watching things like the labor market data and would it be -- i think we have the retail portion of earnings season to work through. what would be the trigger points for your change in outlook. >> the biggest risk for the near-term and everybody is focused on credit and liquidity. right now you're starting to feel the pain trickle through on the lower end of businesses and households, but most households and most businesses are still quite healthy. i think to see a dent in the recovery, you have to see that broaden out and become a bigger problem, and i just don't see that happening and not a lot of companies and not a lot of households are refinancing at much higher rates yet. >> dan, we will leave it there,

and we will check in with your better half later. you guys better be telling the same story. >> it's a completely different story. >> that's right. thank you, dan. we appreciate your time. dan suzuki. a high stakes face-to-face meet between president biden and xi jinping this week and what a successful summit could look like for each company and why american companies are back to doing business in beijing. we'll talk about that next. plus, is it time to say good-bye to monthly government data and hello to realtime stats from corporate america? we'll get the latest spending data from cnbc's new retail monitor ahead. as we head to break, here's a look at the markets fluctuating today and turning into gains throughout the session. the dow is up 72 points right now. "the exchange" is back after this. ♪ ♪ >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

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♪ ♪ welcome back. chinese president xi jinping meeting with the u.s. president on u.s. soil for the first time in six years this wednesday, but he's also meeting with tech leaders and it's all part of the apec summit taking place in san francisco this week and it's happening just as it appears china is warming up for u.s. business and my next guest is skeptical. joining me is anja manuel.

she's skeptical. tell me. >> thank you. i'm happy to be here. i think the united states is in a strong position going into this summit. the u.s. economy is growing very quickly, 4.9% last quarter and china says it's growing at about the same pace, but we all think it's slowing down, and these headwinds in china are caused by president xi's own policies, his tough political crackdown, he's making it harder for american and other foreign companies to invest in china. so i think this will be a pretty good summit for the united states. >> a pretty good summit for the united states. >> does the news overnight about china looking to boeing for a bunch of new orders and does that sit with that idea? why would this be better for the u.s. than for china? >> i'm not sure better one way or another, but from the business perspective and i believe that we should continue to do business with china. there's no reason to cut ourselves off from the chinese

economy other than areas that touch our national security. so boeing, selling planes to china, fantastic. our consumer business is doing business there, fantastic. you will see president xi this week trying to roll out the red carpet for western businesses. the chinese have been saying, china's open for business and we want you to come here, but the fact is, kelly, that they're making it very, very difficult. as you know, members of due diligence firms with china have been arrested and the counter espionage is very difficult to comply with. foreign companies are facing all sorts of headwinds there and i don't see those policies changing even though the chinese rhetoric is changing. >> so what do you think is the most significant thing that could come out of the meeting this week and what would tell you that it actually falls shy of expectations? >> yeah. on the political side, i think success for president biden and his team would be getting the military to military exchanges

back. the chinese military and the pla has refused to talk to the american military since speaker pelosi visited taiwan in 2022 and that's extremely dangerous. chinese planes are hot dogging in international airspace flying very close to u.s. planes. nobody wants an accident that spiralled out of control and that would be a big victory if we're able to get those exchanges back on track. >> indeed. anja, we'll leave it there and it should be a consequential week. an ja manuel from the strategy group. a major earth discovery may shift the trade war and potentially help the u.s. close the gap in the mining of the sought-after minerals. coal producer ramico resources mined and it's in the process of testing what some say could be a

$37 billion treasure. here with more on what the production time line looks like is randall atkins, chairman and ceo of aramco. welcome. >> great to see you, kelly. >> another blue ridge, girl. >> that's right. where are you from? >> kentucky. i went to i and l. i didn't know. it's great to check in with you, and we'll talk strategy. let me back up for a second with this kind of modern-day beverly hillbillies tale. albeit that this property was owneded by a wall streeter in the first place. how was this discovery made again? >> well, it's sort of a tenure overnight sensation. we started really in 2011 with a thermal coal mine and it took us a year to discover that would not be the highest and best use of the property and since that time we've been working with the federal government on developing a whole number of alternative

high-value uses for coal. i like to tease that fate loves irony and coal is a solution to a number of problems including obviously the rare earth situation in the united states. >> so is that a coincidence or is it a characteristic of coal that it might contain these deposits? >> it's -- it's a bit unique. i mean, rare earth are formed, i now understand in a variety of ways, but it certainly can be found in what they call unconventional minerals which are coal, clays and carbon asian materials and a lot of the rare earth are found in clays and we are sort of in a lucky spot in northern wyoming where there was a lot of volcanic activity millions of years ago which led to theformation of these. >> does that mean there are potentially more such discoveries to find? >> i think it's probably logical to conclude that there would be.

i don't think that they're spread evenly across the united states, but i do think in some areas that have a lot of the type of formation characteristics like wyoming that that might be the case. >> so randall, take us back a little bit. as i mentioned, you're a former wall street banker and you buy this property in wyoming and you bought it sight unseen. what attracted you to the property at the time? >> it was a rrather large resere extremely reasonably priced and we might make a go of it with the thermal proposition and the world changed rather quickly about ten years ago and the idea of deploying capital towards a thermal mind became very unattractive and our approach was basically, what else can we do with this stuff and so that led us it a ten-year odyssey of discovering other alternative uses of coal, and to those who might be more interested in the subject, was there a white paper

they shared with secretary energy perry about four years ago from the national coal council called coal in the new car bonn age and it outlined a number of these alternative uses. >> it's hugely consequential. this kind of trove could potentially be, 100 and some years supply of when we are currently using and it will be incredibly expensive to extract and china has all of the refining. do you think that we'll be able to refine it here? how important is that or is just having the supplies even if china refines them something that could aid our national security. >> kelly, that's a great point and i think the interesting thing is these are found in unconventional deposits or unconventional reserves. they're unconventional because most rare earth are found in uranium and mossanite and these are things that have to be crunched, crashed and made into powders and really refined with

very caustic acids which is why most of these are sent to the chinese to refine. in unconventional deposits like coal and clays which are much softer, you can essentially extract and process these, we hope, much more benignly. it's certainly going to be less expensive to get out coal than it would be hard minerals and it would be simpler and much more environmentally friendly to refine them by using much milder solvents and other techniques. >> it's fascinating. as i understand it, the u.s. government has been in touch to try to probe just how significant this discovery is, but just take me inside the moment when you realized that the moment you bought for $2 million could potentially be worth billions. what is that like? >> it's very humbling, no question about it and i've been around mining long enough to know that mother nature could be very tricky. so i think one can take nothing for granted although this is

extremely promising and it's promising not only for this company, but it's potentially promising for the united states and frankly, for the entire coal industry because this might be something that will awaken the thought that there might be more different uses for coal and indeed one of our one-liners is coal is too valuable to burn would certainly be the case in this instance. >> it's the most incredible marriage of those who both want coal to go away and want new energy to subplant it and people with investments all up and down that infrastructure could benefit and to turn this whole thing on its head and not to be a grinch about it, but what would bring the story to a quicker halt than expected? would it be if you have difficult difficulty extracting the minerals and great point, as i said and everything about mother nature needs to be taken with a certain level of caution. so when you're basically dealing with rare earth, unlike a bulk

commodity like coal, you're dealing with essentially microscopic particles and rare earth is measured in parts per million and there is a great deal that has to go through defining what is the appropriate extraction technique and the appropriate separation technique to separate the air earth from the other material and of course, processing and refining it and so we've got a lot of work ahead of us, but the good news is i jokingly use the line from hamilton. it's nice to have washington on your side. so we've been working with the national labs on this. i think we are now up to about four or five national labs involved in one form or another on this project, so we have the best and the brightest minds, frankly, in the united states helping us on this. we are optimistic, but we are always very cautious and we take these things very meticulously on how we will develop it. >> both an incredible story with

heavy and light rare earth and it could be the new u.s. rare earth mine since 1952. you will share some of that going to w & l if this works out? >> well, as i've used the one-liner, you never know how many old friends and long, lost relatives you have until something like this hits the news. >> i can only imagine. thank you for coming on and sharing your story with us. >> great to meet you. >> we'll be following along with great interest, randall atkins with ramaco resources. we've seen resurgence in organized labor movements resulting in record wage gains for workers across the country and now new members are tracking americans' views of big business and thou how they inthk corporate america will be responding to inflation and we'll bring you those results ahead. america will be respondin inflation and we'll bring you those results ahead.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." i'm julia boorstin with your cnbc news update. donald trump is requesting tv coverage for one of his federal criminal trials. the former president filed a legal motion supporting previous media requests for live coverage of his election interference trial. trump is facing charges of attempting to defraud the federal government and obstruct congress by spreading false claims of election fraud. first lady jill biden and the white house gender policy council are set to lead a white house initiative into women's health research. the biden administration announced the program today with the goal of improving how the federal government funds and approaches research interest women's health, an area that remains understudied. president says he's a believer

in the, quote, power of research to help save lives. traffic is getting worse in los angeles. a large fire damaged part of the 10 freeway over the weekend. closures continue this morning as engineers look for any structural integrity issues. mayor karen bass is asking commuters to review routes using surface streets. governor gavin newsom declared a state of emergency following the fire. back over to you. >> wow. julia, thank you. our julia boorstin. coming up, the baggage barometer. we'll talk to luggagemaker samsonite about what they're seeing itreln av behaviors. "the exchange" back after this with the dow hanging on to a 20-point gain. together, we built something truly beautiful. it takes years of dedication to get to this milestone.

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oh, i'm sorry. welcome back. retail stocks are under pressure again today as cnbc has teamed up with the national retail federation and data insights company affinity solutions to launch a realtime monthly tracker just how much and where american consumers spend each month. steve liesman has more on the methodology. ♪ ♪ >> a decade ago affinity solutions, a little-known company, launched into a little-known business, linking credit card holders with incentives like when you get five bucks off a cup of coffee for using your plastic. today affinity is the largest consumer purchase data insights company with a massive database. it tracks nearly 9 billion credit card transactions every

year from 140 million credit and debit cards from 1400 card issuers. more than half a trillion in sales has racked up. now the power of that data is combining with the national retail federation and cnbc to create the cnbc nrf retail monitor, a realtime monthly gauge of how much and where consumers spend each month. >> it's really giving you the purchase truth and it's allowing you to see what the market is really doing. >> the existing retail data from the government uses surveys and the cnbc nrf retail monitor uses actual transactions. the census data is revised as new data come in. the retail monitor isn't revised because it uses actual transactions every month. >> the important thing about this is that we will get timely information about consumers and represents 70% of all u.s. economic activity. >> that's how we do the data. let's see what the actual data say and the cnbc nrf retail monitor powered by affinity

solutions shows consumers taking a break before the holiday shopping season and retail sales, let's take a look here and this is the headline number and it's ex auto and gas, down .08%. year over year, 2.6 versus 4.9. and core retail and that takes out auto, gas and restaurants also down 0.03 after a gain in the prior month. looking at the trend over the past year, you can see the cnbc nrf data has been gradually slowing as the year has gone on and actually bucking the trend that the government's been reporting and surprising strength among the consumer and we're still up, but not as much as the government has and let's take a look at the sector retail, and by the way, this is the comparison. you can see that the nrf data, is a lot less volatile than the government even though these are both seasonally adjusted and

you'll see that the gas station sales are negative, and furniture and home furnishings is negative and strength in personal care and strength in sporting goods and hon hobby and music. we'll have to morn tor this to see if october weakness is better or worse than holiday spending. maybe, kelly, a bad halloween means a merry christmas? i don't know. >> it's underarmour, kohl's and the data you're highlighting is the kind of data that hedge funds and different types of prak practitioners have been reliant on. >> we know that for a fact. affinity solutions is maybe the number one provider for wall street. >> thank you for letting us all in. >> now we have this data for us and it's just the beginning, kelly. first of all, i want everyone to understand this was part of a trend and we were doing it before in the pandemic. in the pandemic we went both

feet in on high frequency private sector data because either a, the government couldn't give it to us because they were unable to get it, but b, there were questions we couldn't answer from the existing data. how many people were riding subways and now we have this high frequency data. for example, we'll have really good internet sales data because we'll know. >> one quick final question, at what point do you think this penetrates the consciousness of the fed? >> i think it's already penetrating the consciousness and i happen to know that it acknowledges it publicly. they are getting private sector transactional data that they're looking at specifically when it comes to issues like emergencies, like hurricanes and stuff. they want to know if there was an issue with declining in a certain area. was it more widespread or was it just that area? >> for example, when there was a hurricane over houston, they looked at that. snowstorms and other things they'll look at.

we are looking at that, too and we're breaking this data down over time by income, age and geographic group and drilling to certain sectors over time. this is a new paradigm, i think, we are all on the cusp of it right now. >> the liesman and some fun thing with the trademark thing and thank you either way for bringing that to us. our steve liesman. >> let's get more specific on the consumer than none other than samsonite with the hong kong-listed shares falling by 5% and sales were a bit shy in america and stronger than expected in europe and latin america, thanks to strong travel demand and joining us is samsonite's ceo kyle jenthro. thanks for join us. >> hi, kelly. >> we're having some outstanding results. i can't wait to talk about it. >> indeed. not to be a downer, why was north america lighter than expected when we thought it was

the summer of revenge travel and all of of that? >> i think we're seeing a very strong trend for travel and i would argue in europe, some normalization of travel levels and we're seeing the business started to recover earlier than other parts of the world and at the end of '21 and into '22 we saw steady recovery. we are seeing mid to upper single-digit growth still in travel and north america. europe is closer to 20% and continues to perform. and it is really catching up, up 40% is our expectation in the fourth quarter and it's striking to see what's going on with the profit margin expansion, and i have to imagine it's a higher price and the consumer still wants to be in this space right now. is that kind of the idea? >> it's two things and it's pricing, obviously and our ability to manage promotion like a lot of industries and people are managing promotion and the

other piece that's transformative for sus during the pandemic, as you can imagine the business was heavily impacted and you're seeing a mix of major margin expansion especially tumi and samsonite moving at a faster clip than american tourister and we are delivering record performance on gross margin and our ebitda margins and our net income is just incredible and the strongest we've ever had. >> do you think -- we are going through this with the fiscal side now where there is a big splurge during the pandemic than a normalization and there's been a big splurge on travel and then we'll see normalization and talk about the blipside of the coin a year or two from now? >> i think fundamentally i was watching your piece before on consumers and where they're deploying their dollars. i think travel is one of the trends that will continue to be very strong and when you look at

where consumers are spending they're spending on activities, experiences and travel particularly. i was just looking at the forward outlook for thanksgiving travel. there would be record travel in our business and it generally correlates with travel and we are quite excited for when we see at the end of this year with q4. we're waiting to see what holiday will do and the travel trends will continue to be strong. our business is perfectly diversified across the globe and so we can see this amazing movement in asia, and i'm sure you'll jump at sxhiepa. it's, i think and into china that will fuel a good story for us as well. >> kyle, thanks for joining us today. we hope to check back in soon. kyle gendreau, ceo of salmonite. >> is it curtains for capitalism? the majority of americans don't think the current structure is working for workers.

what needs to change and what companies can do about it next? speaking of changes, per ferrar launching an ownership and it's planning to hire 250 more workers in the first six months of 2024. ferrari, ticker race, one of the best spin-offs in recent years seeing shares rise 1% today and more tn ha60% now so far this year. we're back after this.

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and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. welcome back. from hollywood to health care, 2023 has been the year of the strike, and that matches up with the results of a new just capital survey with the large majority of respondents they think workers are top of mind. pippa stevens is here. >> worker equality and environmental impact and diversity efforts has stalled and labor is a key part of that according to just capital's annual americans' view on business survey. in a year when we've seen strikes for higher pay and pushes toward unionization, more than 80% of survey respondents said companies should hike wages to keep up with inflation with 83% saying workers should be

able to engage in cleshollectiv bargaining with liberals, moderates and conservatives saying it's a company's responsibility to pay a living wage. all told just 28% of respondents see workers as companies' top see workers as companies' top priority down from

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welcome back. home depot reports before the bell tomorrow with shares on pace for another losing year. down 8% since january as the home improvement market slows dramatically and existing home sales in september just reached their lowest seasonally adjusted annualized rate in 13 years. bank of america has a look at how that stalled turnover is impacting consumer spending on items like mattresses and furniture ahead of some other key retail reports this week. here to discuss is liz suzuki, retail banker at bank of

america. welcome. >> thanks for having me on. >> we pulled off the double suzuki. i just have to mention that. i'm going to start with mattresses and save the home depot stuff for a moment. i was thinking purple was once a $50 tock, it's 50 cents today. c casper went lower. there's been major fallout, and that was even before housing slowed dramatically. where else should we be looking for shoes to drop across the home retail space? >> sure. i think what's been interesting about the analysis you have presented today and talking about the health of the u.s. consumer, and, you know, it does still seem to be pretty much intact. especially the u.s. homeowner is something we've been focusing in on. so, these categories that are more tied to housing turnover and more sensitive to the number of moves that we see in existing home sales, i think that that's something we need to be a little bit more cautious about, especially in these big ticket

items like mattresses and furniture and also flooring. these are three big ticket categories that our analysis showed people who are moving spend significantly more than people who aren't. mattresses, people spend six times as much as nonmovers when changing zip codes. make senses. you bought a house, now you're going to fill it. you probably have an extra room or two, so you need an extra mattress. spending there is a bit more sensitive to housing turnover. same with furniture. it's about four times as much as spending by movers versus nonmovers. and high-end furniture even more sensitive there. so, i think there are specific categories where we're still a little more cautious and really those boil down to those higher ticket items. >> a company like floor and decor you imagine would be in the center of this storm is still up 10% year to date. >> yeah, i mean, exactly. floor and decor already reported their third quarter results.

they saw same store sales down 9%, which is more than really what they've ever seen before in terms of downside. i think when we look at the broader home improvement retailers that have a wider variety of product and are not so niche and not as focused on specific housing turnover related categories, like they still have paint, they have broader maintenance products. we don't expect quite as severe a decline year over year for home depot and for lowe's for that reason. >> i do see best buy, whirlpool, we know whirlpool's struggles have been well documented. these are names you have an underperform on, even big lots and aaron's. let me get to the grand conclusion here, what does this mean for home depot? shares are down 8%. they are in the middle of hard-hit categories but maybe there are some other areas they can lean on. >> when we looked at the home improvement category, we looked at building products and housing-related services. so, these are things you would pay a professional to do for your home, a general contractor, a plumber, an electrician.

any time someone is using their bank of america credit card to pay contractors and specialists, that's going into that professional housing related services category. so what we saw there was actually less sensitivity to housing turnover. we saw movers spent about one and a half times more than nonmovers. it's not quite as severe like that six times for mattresses. so, it was -- so, a little -- it's still a headwind. we actually still think it's going to be a headwind through most of 2024. where we could see relief and where our bank of america economists are forecasting some relief coming is both from new housing construction, which is still expected to increase, and also from the fed cutting rates probably in the second half of next year. that will help spur some housing turnover, get some movement there and probably spur the stocks as well. >> that gets you an outperform on home depot, lowe's and even floor & decor. thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> liz suzuki with b of a.

the dow hanging onto a 57-point gain today. for more analysis and trends of the economy, you can sign up for my newsletter at c cnbc.com/newsletter. shares of apple are up 8% this month. a technician checks the charts to see if there's more room to run or time to bail? jon fortist in for tyler. i'll join him on the other side of this break. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

a hot topic this week ahead of president biden meeting with president xi. it occurs with signs that china's lessening its hostility towards u.s. companies, which could stand to benefit from these talks. plus, exxonmobil taking a step towards a clean energy future. they will start making lithium in arkansas, which will