deals? sometimes the big high-profile works out. how often do we read they're fired. not just football but in the industry. you have to pay these people for years. >> i would like a contract like that. >> what are we saying? it's unbelievable. >> thanks for watching "power lun lun lunch.". >> "closing bell" starts right now. you're watching closing belg. tomorrow morning the i report. the stocks looking to continue their late year run as rates remain steady and investors wonder if it's okay to buy in. there's your scorecard with 60 minutes go. a bit of a wait-and-see. dow not doing too much. the nasdaq and s&p modest losers. they're holding steady. mega caps are modestly lower. it takes us to our talk of the

table whether the bear case is tired or overstated. welcome back. >> thank you, scott. >> are you tired of making this bear case? is it overstated at this point? are you sticking to your conviction here? >> the only reason it retired is we're down versus where we were two years ago. so it's been a poor return environment. i think those returns are going to continue to be poor. now, there's different dynamics, short-term versus long-term. i think it's actually somewhat favorable and we'll provide a bid to the market. if you look at the next couple of weeks and few months, i don't think it's higher at all. the background fundamentals are continuing to get worse. >> this market sort of confounded you and other bears

for a while now, right? it's not like you're coming in here today and saying, well, the market can go up for another week or a month or what have you. there are many stretches along the way this year where you've been like, look, i'm more negative today than i was two weeks ago. next appearance, i'm even more negative than i was last year. somehow the market has hung in there. why? >> it's been fairly resilient. i still think they're going to go materially low. they've held in because of the economy. the economy has not rolled over yet, okay? it is weaken weakening, okay? we're seeing that from corporations. this earning season the estimates came down. >> a little bit. >> a little bit. continuing claims. continuing claims are up for about seven straight weeks. seven-day orders is falling. i think this quarter we had 4.5%

gdp growth, but if you look at sales growth for corporations, they were up about 1.5%, significantly underperforming what gdp is saying, and their commentary was a significant underperformance. >> at what point do you say, you know what? it's not going to roll ore like i thought it would. yes, it's slowing, but it's not rolling over like everybody thought it will. >> the interest rate picture is a big deal. over the last five, ten months, the yield is up 20, 30 basis points. that's the kind of thing that does not hit the economy right away and far more important than the fed funds rate. corporate america, the debt they'll be refinancing in 2024, 2025 issing on the longer end of the curve. you think of what's going on with the mortgage rate, auto loans, all is on the long end. all of it is going to need to be rolled. this backup we've seen in yields

is going to be very prop matic, and there clearly is a lag effect to that, right? it doesn't hit people until they need to roll their debt, until a small business needs to raise equity, needs to finance the company. you know, until that happens, it doesn't hit you. it is a very important delayed impact. >> you're assuming, of course, that rates remain as high as they've been or perhaps move even higher than some still predict. there is that chance that they might not, right? >> i mean, the issue is that the supply of treasuries, and so if we have an economy that is chugging along as it is now, then presumably the fed funds rate is going to stay in and around here, and long end yields are still 50 to 75 basis points above the fed funds rate while the treasury supply that's coming to the market is continuing to rise. even today the budget statement came out. >> i know. double, i know.

>> double the 9 billion. >> double than it was a month ago. >> issue next month, it's going to be higher than next month and theish a witness the following month is going to be higher. it's going to continue to go up. if we see an economic downturn, the tax receipts fall and the debt explodes even more. it's a very -- the risks that are out there remain very high and this market is not priced for those risks that still exist out there. >> where's the price, do you think? what's wrong with the price itself? >> so if you look at it relative -- if you look at the multiple overall for the s&p 500, right, we're trading at 18.5 to 19 times forward estimates. >> which is going to to skew the stocks obviously. >> yes. >> the 490 some odd other stocks are not trading at 18 times. >> i think this is an important point though. when you look at the s&p 500, you have to look at the 500

stocks. one of the reasons the multiples have gone down is because portfolio managers have allocated away from the 493 and into the 7s, so it's inflated the 7 and it's impressed the 493, but the bottom line is you take the average based on capitalizations. the s&p 500 is trading at 20 times this year's earnings. it's trading at 18 1/2 times forward earnings, so that's a rich multiple when you consider that money market yields are almost 5.25, 5.5%. that multiple, i think, is too high. what happens typically, those multiples only come down during economic downturns, and so it may take until then for those multiples to contract. >> all right. let's bring in alicia levine and keith lerner. it's great to have you both with us. alicia, you first. is eric right or wrong? >> i hear what eric's saying,

but that's a taled scenario. we think the overarching case is a slowdown precisably because of tightened conditions but ultimately because it looks like the economy can take it. it're clear the commercial real estate and some of the smaller caps are reflecting exactly what eric is talking about, which is the terming out of debt, rolling in the higher rates, and not being able to take in the sectors. if you're talking about the overall index, we just think that most of the s&p can handle this going forward. it is buy fur indicated, but just the way large cap america termed out its debt and households termed out its debt, the rate cycle isn't biting yet. that doesn't mean it won't. it's just slowing. then you're looking at an election year. at some point you're running out of time for that recession to get here because you typically never have a recession in an

election year, especially when the incumbent is running. whether it's joe biden or another democrat, that's the incumbent. you have to ask yourself is there a recession in the next six months. there could be, but we think it's unlikely. >> the economy can take it is what alicia just said. you think it can't. >> right. i think a slowdown, you know, in and of itself, i think would cap the prices. if you have a slowdown, you have rates where it is and stay elevated. i think one thing around an election year is it going to be different this time because are we filled to the gills on fiscal spending and typically you don't have the recession in the final year of the presidencies because they spend money in order to keep the economy up. we don't really have that situation now based on some of the pressures around the fiscal situation. but i think certainly a scenario is that this cycle is elongated

and we just have slower growth and we don't go into a recession. but if i told you we're going to go into a recession in 2025, right, i would still say in 2024, the market is going to be, you know, pricing essentially that in, knowing that in recessions, earnings estimates get hit, earnings multiples get hit. so if you see that coming even a year out, that's still problematic based on where we currently are with multiples. >> so, keith, look, the last couple times you were on, you were more positive than not, and i think decidedly so. not only do you have what eric suggests is still on the calm in terms of these lag effects, but the other issues for the bulls is the markets run a lot in the last eight, nine, ten days. so is that now a headwind or not? >> yeah. great to be with you, scott. you're right. we were actually with you on the day of the lower 4100. we published a note that day that said the pullback was an opportunity. but we felt that was in the

context of a choppy range that continues. to answer your question specifically, the risk/reward is less favorable than it was then. we still have some upside, 3%, 4% upside because we still have positive seasonals. quoting earnings estimates, i know there's a lot of concerns they're going to weaken. they've defied expectations all year long. let's not forget, a lot of corporations have been told they'll be ready all year long. what we've seen over the last quarter is margins have expanded. i don't know that it's helpful to laebl this a bear or bull market. i think we're in a choppy trading range. it may remain a little after the digestion phase after we've gone up 7%, 8% in loans. >> at some point you're going to have to say, you know what? i thought we were going to have

a recession. lag times often take effect. maybe not. at that moment do you change your outlook because you don't think earnings are going to come down dramatically enough to make it completely multiple on both sides? >> yes. i think ultimately what's going to cause this market to move lower is going to be a weakening economy that takes growth to zero or to negative and takes the unemployment rate to something in the, you know, high fours, mid-fours or higher. to the extent that that doesn't happen, then this market could sort of grow into its multiple and could grow into that type of economy. but i think we're still aways. you know, we're still six, nine months away from that point to saying okay, we've made it through the lag effects from the rate increases. we've made it through some of the issues that are facing us us now. okay, we've made i through. >> you've been pretty negative for the six to nine months in

which you said in the six to nine months the economy is probably going to be in a recession. now we look at another six to nine months. at what point does it get pushed off where you say it's not going to happen like i thought it would. the mattress was so thick going into this whole thing it's cushioned the landing to a degree i didn't think was going to happen. >> so if the money market yields were 1%, i would say, yeah, it's tough. it's tough waiting. money market yields are over 5%, right that you have plenty of investments where you have high single returns. a sideways equity market while you're waiting is not a bad thing. you can have your money in a lot of different places to earn very good returns. and so, you know, you don't always have to be in equities. i've been bullish 80% of my career. it's been 90% that i've been

bearish, but it's because of what i see out there. while you're waiting, you're getting paid. >> he's not the only one, alicia, who shares that view. there are many people who make that case and for good reason, and as lockng as you have these other competitive places to go beyond equities, you do have that fight over risk/reward in which people like them would be better especially now. >> it's better because it's a sure thing in the short term. if you're going to be in cash or t-bills. if you think in any case there's going to be some sort of slowdown, you don't want to be there anymore, and we think there's a reinvestment risk. they've been flocking to it all year long because the ma macro looks so crazy. you're getting 5% on a two-year. i think you can go out a little bit. i don't think i would be so bold

as to say go long term. the supply issue is real. the slowdown coming that's not a disa disaster does feel like a nice setup. as we know for the last 12 years, investors really didn't want to be in fixed income at all because it didn't matter. now it matters. you can get some return, you can get some yield and be more balanced in your portfolios than you have been. i think the real issue in the economy as eric is talking about is what does that $1.5 million in the commercial real estate that's coming due in the end of 2025 look like? is that enough to throw the economy into the tailspin? i think that's where you see the risk. the other assets have weighed it in. the small caps, we're in the recession there. we're there. >> the regional banks make up such a good part of the russell, and that's where the biggest fears about the commercial real

estate roll. >> we're there, we're there. >> keith, let me ask you this. the idea that it's unhealthy in its current state, do you still favor communication services and tech, i.e. the magnificent seven? at what point does it have a negative impact on the overall market? you can make the argument it's had that impact. the rest of the market doesn't look nearly as good, but when does it matter, if ever? >> to be realistic, i would prefer to see small caps outperforming now. but we have to take the market that we have. at this point what's notable is technology went down -- was one of the last things to go down. that's at the latest stages. what's notable is technology has come back again. at this point we're seeing the technology sector make a relative price hike to the overall market.

communication services also doing very well. the old leaders are the new leaders, which is tech. i don't think there's any reason at this point to go against that theme. and as long as that continues, the headline market will do just fine. at this point it's stronger than the overall market. that's likely to continue. semiconductors are off 13%, also showing leadership as well. at some point it ends. it's not showing any substantial change at this point. >> what's your take on tech? >> one of the things that's happening is portfolio managers are seeing a lot of the stuff i'm talking about here today and they've been going to safety, and their perceived safety is high rate cash flow, no debt, secular tailwinds. you see the picture out there that's quite manageable. you're going to move out of the

s cyclical mask. i have different views within the seven. i'm quite negative on tesla and apple, but i understand microsoft, i understand google, i understand nvidia. >> apple was 169. now it's 185. >> yeah. so the quarter was poor. if you look at what the fourth quarter esty mats was, going into it was about 124 billion -- sorry, the first quarter was about 124 billion. after the quarter it was 119 billion. now another quarter will be 1% revenue growth if they make it in the first quarter. so the trend of the economy that's growing 4.5% in a company that's growing negative 1, 0, that's not attractive, also based on their buyback situation. >> let me ask you this. >> yeah.

>> normally i would say when someone makes an argument, you say, well, you can't have it both ways. why can't you have it both ways? you made a case for the mega caps. why can't you have a negative underlying market about cyclical stocks like, you know, all of those economically sensitive things you don't like for the variety of reasons you just articulated but say, you know what? i think you should be putting money into the stockmarket and you should be putting money into these seven names because if the dynamic continues and the economy slows like i think it will, this is exact will i the place you want to be. why can't you have it both ways? >> because microsoft, google, and amazon are levers to the economy. google is an ad company, right? they make a lot of money on selling advertisements. amazon, they've got their enterprise business, rew e tail

business. these names are going to be impacted by a downturning economy. i just think they're going to perform better, better than the -- how do i phrase it -- in the index. but make no mistake, they will get hurt by an economic downturn. like i said, apple is growing 0% in a 4% gdp environmental. what's going to happen when it's 1% or zero? the earnings will get hit. right now there's this money flow, which, again, i understand if i'm managing money and i have a pot of $100, right, i'm going to move them into those seven, which is going to inflate the prices. until that leaves my portfolio, it's still invested in the overall market. >> alicia, last point to you before we go. >> we like large cap america and large cap tech precisely because they can earn in the high worlds yield. in the end if you slow down and it comes in, you get the

multiples on the multiple side duration. we like this. it's true what eric says. there are some where the earnings are suspect. i can't talk about them. but there are others that will have an earnings boost on scaling from ai, so i think that outweighs each other. >> we'll leave it there. everybody, thank you. keith, we'll talk soon. eric, alicia, thank you as always. let's get to our question of the day. do you think the bear case for stocks is overstated? you can head to "closing bell" to vote. kristina partsinevelos is with us as always. >> dot-com is having the best month since may. that's why shares are up lem 10%. medical device stocks are also high. popular weight loss drugs like wegovy, you can see u.s. medical

devices is up over 2% but still down 12% on the last three months. switching gears you have analysts seeing beaten up stocks saying they could be seen as marginal play positive especially given their recent underperformance. that's why we're seeing big gains in names like dexcom, insule tecz, transmedics, and penumbra. >> thanks, kristina. chris verrone is making a indication for outside caps and the key levels he's watching. he'll tell us just ahead. we're live on the nasdaq and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized, based on your goals, whatever they may be.

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and that powers more businesses than anyone else. learn how you can get $1000 back for your business today. comcast business. powering possibilities. stocks mixed today as we head into the close. here to share where he is, providing opportunity, chris verrone. good to see you again. >> great to be here. >> where is the opportunity now after we've had a pretty darn good run? >> you know, i think what's tricky is we're at 2014 big level. you still have only 14% of the big number. we've got to pick our spots. >> i'm slowly looking at the russell like when are you going to do something? >> we know where the leadership has been with the mag 7, but there's got to be other things to do, places to play.

there are other places that haven't done well. these things have been largely leadership for a year, haven't gotten anywhere near the attention tech has gotten here. you look at the new relative high. pacr, p-a-c-r, strength is a combination. even within text scott, look at ibm. >> a real bottoms-up investor, but you have to look really down to look bottoms up. >> i think they're largely neglected. they've been relative leaders for the better part of last year. you can put the homebuilders here. the way they've responded from

being very oversold way back to the highs is how leaders behave. there's always this risk, are you holding them into a slowdown. believe it or not, homebuilders are not very cyclical. the relationship has been more pronounced but not when you look at the life of the data set. they go on these big secular runs. every time they sell them down 20%, 30%, take advantage of it. >> just because we don't have enough supply? >> i suspect that's the secular story there. we think of it leading down to before, during, and after. but they acted differently. they led the entire time. >> we've gotten over some key technical 4urdles overall in the market. what does it mean? where does it take us? >> it's a good question. the thing i'm really cueing off

of, do we get a broad expansion in new highs? even last week, the s&p i had a one-month high. i want to see something 50%, 55%, 60%. the second thing i would note, look at the leadership characteristics of this move. if the market is going to go on to decisive new highs in 2024, i think it would mean because the economy is still okay. if that's the case, don't we need discretionary carrying the flag here? small caps, data, all the things yougenerally look to to really signal risk on, they haven't maude up their mind here yet. 40% above the 2 a, i still think you proceed selectively, and not necessarily skeptically, but be mindful if you're going to play here, own the 40% that's working. but you can't play. >> you say skeptically. you have to be skeptical that the economy is going to really

hang in there, and that's why it's so difficult for fpeople t buy those stocks right now. well, i think they've troughed, well, not if you go into a recession, they haven't. >> you look at the pro-cyclical like the semis. only half o working. the others are nowhere on the field. look at the strong semis, ten core. it's very split even in the market's most vaunlted groups. i think we'll get signals. watch kospi. they've tried to rally. i think that would be an important part of any constructive 2024. watch brazil. the only market i could find anywhere where the stock is good, the currency is strong, and the bonds are big, call it a hat trick. >> give me your view of the

magnificent seven. as a group they get knocked down and they come back with a vengeance. >> we call them the magnificent three. i think three of the seven are magnificent-type charts. it's fantastic here. >> a new all-time high. >> you can't fight that. apple has laead. take your pick. tesla is one of the weaker of those. >> you didn't name nvidia. put it in the group of charts. if you look at the spread versus equal weight s&p, if they're reflective of large tech zmoop as widespread as the grand canyon. >> they're persistent. i think the bar is high for them to k50e7 doing what they're

doing. >> good stuff. up next, not out of the woods next. that is the message under the market service according to charles swhaub's kevin gordon who's back today to break down why he's still cautious. and we have tomorrow's critical cpi print. that's after the break. all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't

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we start the trading week ahead of tomorrow morning's cpi. my next guest says we have yet to enter into a durable bull market. he's finding pockets of opportunity. joining me now, kevin gordon of charles schwab. >> hi, scott. good to see you. >> breath not consistent with a strong durable bull market, price construction outside of magnificent seven is lacking, got to be cautious. we've been saying this for like 10 1/2 months. when does it not matter? >> i will say some of it started to change in mid summer and we

started to get constructive when all of that that you just listed started to improve. you saw breath metrics start to improve, small cap markets start to get some. >> no traffic. >> no head traffic but it was a head fake. july was the most recent peak, but also we saw more of a negative divergence where even though earnings beat rates started to improve, you haven't seen as much of a durable improvement as you move down the cap spectrum. so we're kind of in this scheme we've been in where now in the latest events from late october you've had mag caps leading the way and then everything else has been sort of just lacking. i will say in terms of the advance and whether it's sustained, you do have some port, so for a all of the excitement with the gains you've

had the last couple of weeks, it hasn't been met with a ton of enthusiasm. >> it sounds like you're miles away from new highs, which shows the resiliency of the market in the face of everything and the haters -- i'm not necessarily putting you in the hater group, but the market says it doesn't lock good, it's not healthy, it's being led by mega caps. >> just because it looks good doesn't mean it's bad. if you're look at the equal weighted s&p, you're flat near to date, that's not terrible, but, again, i think a lot of the discussion has been dominated by whether we're in a bull market -- you know, a new bull market. >> just a bear market rally. >> if you want to use the 20%. >> what do you want to say? >> if you want to. it's a little bit too simplistic because when you look at prior major market lows, when you look at the market which was the case last year, everything that is

supposed to do well in all the cases of recessionary, non-recessionary, they haven't done well at all. >> the overriding and overarching, recession fear, people can't get out of their mind that the fed's done all of this work. of course it leads to a pretty good recession. >> yeah. >> well, maybe not. >> is tthat's the tough part. you've got the message from the market. it's late cycle for longer because you have still accounters which were turning a little bit this year, housing related. consumer confidence. they started to improve and looked like they were entering their own rolling recoveries because we've been calling them rolling recessionaries. keeping you sort of in that zone of even if you were looking at something like that, not yet like a recession territory like

you had in 2001 to 2008, 2009, still sub 50 and staying in that zone where you're muddling along in contraction territory and there's not much going on. that's what you have to look for, whether you get strength from services and labor. >> where then are the pockets of opportunity that exist in an uncertain economic world versus an area where all the money has gone anyway already where everybody knows about it? >> as we think about where we're turning not just into 2024. if we're really in a higher for longer environmental, you have to consider -- i know it's been the topic of conversation on the show, just the interest environment, where we're going in terms of rates, what company can withstand that. it's not as much a sector play. it's much more a factor or characteristic play because you can find companies, whether it's discretionary, tech, or higher

interest coverage ratios, and that's the opportunity, i think. if you're approaching this and you're approaching it from that standpoint, that to us makes a lot more sense because it's kind of the new normal, where the rates are gone, where the normal downtrend has broken, you know, for companies that haven't turned out debt. even for those who have -- >> what does a faberable cpi report tomorrow morning mean for the rest of the year? >> i actually -- just because of all the data we have this week and all of the fed speak we have this week, i'm not sure. there's literally 20 fed speeches. i think that. but in addition you've got ppi, retail sales. you've got a lot more that's going to give you the context. to me that's as important as the collection of data. but i think even if you were stepping back and taking a look at the landscape, the fed is still in a position. i do think the risks are getting more balanced than two-sided.

you look on the table. you cut rates even with inflation not back to target and the unemployment rates still relatively low when you look at history, that's still the bias, to keep things tight and in a restrictive position. >> good stuff. thanks for joining us. up next, we track the biggest movers as we head to a close. kristina partsinevelos has that. >> tyson food blaming chicken and pork for its revenue outlook. i'll explain next.

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"closing bell." let's get right to kristina partsinevelos. >> tyson foods posted an earnings beat over the cost cut. demand in prices drop but cost-cutting preserves the bottom line. tyson's forecast for next fiscal revenue year, they did see a drop in that missed estimates because they are predicting a continued drop in chicken and pork prices and slowing demand for beef. that's why stock is down almost 3%. good-bye robinhood and lyft.

robinhood has been struggling as of late with its monthly active user base and crypto limping in 2023 and lyft still struggling. lyft down 5%. robinhood not reacting so much. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked, do you think the bear case for stocks is overrated? head to @c@cnbcclosingbell. the results just after this break.

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all right. we're in the "closing bell" market zone now. mike santoli to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus courtney reagan on weakness and retail stocks. phil lebeau looking ahead to fi fisker's report. mike, very much wait and see. all eyes and minds are on the cpi for tomorrow morning. >> no question about that. everything is idling here. you look at the strategists' outlooks filtering through. i can see why there's not a tremendous amount of conviction. in a weird way bulls and bearing -- i know you've been having this debate all hour -- could declare victory. if you're a bear and say, look, we never really got out of the muck, you can look at the average stog doing nothing, and actually most of the economic areas of the market are sending

a bit of a tough macro message saying, look, a quarter of the s&ps are keeping pace. if you're bullish, you say, look, we're sort of sideways for two years, the economy is bigger. we don't have a recession yet. if we don't have a recession, we should be able to keep it up and have a catch-up trade for the rest. i'm on board with that being the way you set out the probabilities for 2024. >> what breaks that though? we talked about that. it's like you're in your camp here and you're in your camp here and no one's budging it. >> i don't know if it breaks entirely, but you can go through these phases and all of a sudden it seems like we got a second wind. if you start to get inflation surprising to the downside further and it looks like we're getting closer to the 2% target, the fed itself has said we're going to get there in 2025, the market can talk itself into it.

we're going to get rate cuts and we'll get to stick to landing more easily. i think all of those things are in the mix. at the same time, you can't ignore we're late in the cycle probably and how much more earnings growth can you get out of a slowing economy. >> i'm glad you bring up the consumer. it's a good segue, court, to you. retail's under pressure and we have a lot of earnings. target, advanced auto, tjx, macys, walmart, and on and on. >> good retails to start the week ahead. we've got cpi tomorrow, black friday next week. the xrt is underperforming. didn't stores continue to suffer. nordstrom down 4% and hitting a 52-week low.

kohl's off almost 4%. some of the discounters, they're selling off pretty sharply. big lots, burlington, they're down 4%. five and below, down 2%. look at the specialty names. haines brands off 7%. under armor, vf corp, bath & body works, boot barn. they're all down. before we start to hear the details from some of the retailers and the anticipation of the all important quarter we're starting now. >> ugly looking board. court, thanks so much. courtney reagan. we're looking ahead to fisker. those numbers are coming out in ot, phil lebeau. >> we are expecting another quarterly loss. we were supposed to go it this report last week. at the last second before they were to report them, fisker came

out and said we're going to push it off until monday. that spooked people. that's why the stock was under pressure thursday and friday. came back a little bit today. here's what to expect when you look at the third quarter. it comes down to the affect that, yes, they're going to report a loss. i don't think that's going to move the stock. its deliveries, where do they come in at? average sales price, still north of $65,000. remember, scott, they have twice reduced full year production estimations down to 22, 20,000 vehicles. if they keep that guidance, scott, that might give a little bit of support to a stock that has really been beaten down in the last several months. >> no doubt. we'll see what happens. thank you. appreciate it. i'll send it back to you as we approach the two-minute warning.

a good cpi causes a boost in the russell or -- >> presuming we get the rate response -- >> that's what i'm thinking. cpi comes in favorable, rates move lower. russell or qs or both? >> russell is wound really tight. not a lot of revision is going down. if you take out the money-losing russell 2000 stocks, there's an average valuation. people have talked themselves out of reasonable caps. i think in general cpi is what we have to work with in terms of a potential market mover. if it's not too far from expectations, i don't know if it stays with us for long as a catalyst. inflation reports this year have been really close to consensus and it's almost taken some of the drama out of it.

we'll see if bond yields are held off by any sort of trepidation of where we are tomorrow. >> how close are you to watching the banks today? >> you can't seem to do anything as long as you have these economic overhang questions. >> i think they're right alongside small caps with problem parts of the market that are not allowing you to relax. >> you look at regionals which obviously make up a big part of it. >> basically saying the average balance sheet stress, that moment has passed. it's not what it's about right now. really they just operate downstream of what the overall economy is going to do at this point. it really to me isn't, who's gotten less insured deposits and more insured deposits. who has more duration. i think it's much more about is the economy going to hang in there or not or is the delinquency rate going to rise. it's mostly about normalization and getting through the 2020

credit creation or is it something more to worry about? >> tomorrow morning goes a long way to confirming the story. is the economy going to hang in? we'll see. the dow is in the green. elsewhere we'll wait and see what happens. ♪ a mixed session for stocks to start the week with the nasdaq 100 snapping its monday winning streak that had dated all the way back to the second quarter. it finished today fractionally lower. that's the scorecard on wall street. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan back with jon fortt. >> glad to be back with you. ahead, the playbook. we'll talk with janus henderson's adam hetts with