nick. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> and i'm sylvia mauro. these are your headlines investors await the u.s. inflation print hoping it ends the fed hiking cycle and guarantees from the german state and the parent company as soon as tomorrow. guess who's back former prime minister david

cameron comes back as the new foreign secretary. ubs' forecast 275 basis points in cuts next year four times the average the global chief economist says the u.s. central bank will soon be forced to address recession pressures. >> accommodative is 250. if you start from 5.5, you need to accommodate that is where the market debate is warm welcome to the program. pleasure to be here with sylvia this morning let's start with the iaea. we have a fresh monthly report from the agency. here is what they have to say. the i aaea raised the global oi demand to 930,000 barrels a day

up from 880,000 per day previously notable jump in demand growth expected in terms of the saudi-russia cuts, it is set to keep the market in a deficit through year end. chinese demand rose to 17.1 million barrels per day in september. we are tracking the strength of the chinese recovery the iaea says there is no material impact on the supply flows from israel-hamas war. that has been reapplflected in e oil price which has staiyed contained. really investors have taken the israel-hamas traders conflict in stride now the iaea, sylvia, suggesting no material impact that would make sense. >> it is a significant comment as you mentioned, when the october 7th event emerged, this

was the main concern for the markets. what would the conflict mean for oil? i want to look at what the iaea said in terms of russian oil exports. as julianna just mentioned, according to the iaea, the exports have eased in october. the iaea said export revenues dropped by $25 million that is in the context of russian oil ex-pports. russian crude prices were above the g7 price cap this is an important development. we will speak later in the show about the russian sanctions and in particular about the cap on the oil price, julianna. according to the iaea, they he are not seeing that price cap being applied fully in the market the tell us how the european markets are trading. european markets are

treading water we are marginally positive on the day. the stoxx 600 now up .30%. we were up ten basis points 15 minutes ago. a fairly muted start to trade in europe things overall looking positive. stoxx 600 gained 75 basis points yesterday. the third positive session in a row. out performance in europe versus the u.s. we have a game of catch up going on with the u.s. and europe after the sentiment last week stateside. from the market perspective, you have the ftse 100 under performing slightly. major 24 hours in politics in the uk the biggest headline being the return of former prime minister david cameron to the government. we will talk through what his appointment means later in the program. we have a guest here to talk about the state of the conservative party and what it means for the uk going forward the next event for investors to

watch from the political perspective is the autumn statement whichis due on the 22nd of november this is the split here at the top of the board basic resources up 1%. glencore leading the basket. media is holding up well u up .80%. on the down side, travel and leisure. no major moves lower from the sector perspective and u.s. futures with wall street very similar picture to here in europe marg marginal gains on the board. the u.s. cpi print is the focus for investors which is due out later this afternoon as julianna mentioned, one of the main market events is the cpi due today with wall street

holding its breath for what could be a tricky set of numbers for the federal reserve. reuters expects the october headline figure to come in at 3.3% for the year. way down on its more than 9% peak in june of 2022 >> core inflation is expected to stick at 4.1%. that is more than double the fed target and comes as the consumer survey sees the american inflation at 3.6% a year from now. investors are starting to acknowledge the possibility of another rate hike this cycle futures with a 30% likelihood of a hike yesterday for expert analysis ahead of the inflation print, don't miss the conversation with james bull arrbullard at 11:30 cet. and at 11:00 cet, we have

the second reading of the third quarter gdp. the economy is estimated to grow 0.1% now to discuss the latest dynamics in the european economy, we have james smith, economist at ing thank you for joining us >> thank you. >> let's start by looking at the eurozone ahead of the gdp data at 11:00 cet the expectations point to a downgrade in terms of growth where do you think we go from here >> that's right. if you look at the third quarter figures, overall, they didn't look great we saw a bit of a contraction. you need to delve deeper and take out germany where things were not bad things were better in france and spain for example. things don't look good as we go into winter and the ecb rate hikes are biting on the economy.

the tourism season was a boost this summer. we are looking at flat line growth the next couple quarters. it doesn't mean a deep rec recession. >> have you changed your opinion on the eurozone at all given the latest conflict in the middle east eurozone is dealing with the implications of the russian invasion of ukraine as well. have the geopolitics changed the economic picture for the e eur eurozone >> it is always an issue with what is going on with oil as some have eased the last couple weeks. for now, it is still a highly uncertain situation. for now. it is the next few months. >> we have fresh data this morning around the labor market.

uk wage growth eased slightly in september which is welcome news for the bank of england. hiring slowed. how do you think the uk economy is doing and do you think that a rate cut is on the table potentially for the boe next year >> yes these figures are what the bank of england want to be seeing wage growth is still too high at 8% for the private sector. that will come down quite a bit over the next year the labor market is softening. there are issues with the numbers, but the point is the labor market will feed through to wage growth and services inflation. all of the things the bank of england cares about. in terms of the economy and the bank of england acknowledged this, the rates are still coming through. if you look at the mortgage rates, the mortgage rate from 2% to 3%. most people are fixed. over the next year, if the bank of england cuts rates, we are looking at the average mortgage rate going to 4% by the end of

next year. those rate hikes are coming through. it doesn't necessarily spell recession, but stagnation with rate cuts next summer. >> what happens when we get a rate cut from the bank of england? what is the trajectory there >> markets are not pricing a huge rate cut cycle. more has been priced in the last few weeks than it was. there was nothing a few weeks back we are looking at 100 basis mints to points for next year medium term rate is sensible that is lower than what markets are pricing over a two or three year period. >> let's look at the politics for a moment we got the reshuffle in government what are you expecting in terms of what the chancellor is going to say next week >> his options are limited it is a double-edged sword

he gets a new forecast we know interest rates are going up higher than last forecast the chancellor had in march. that is pushing up debt interest on the flip side, inflation is heighter t higher. until you balance each other out and it means he doesn't have huge headroom. these reports that he would look to extend the capital allow espe allowances >> we have the cpi print due out later today in the u.s when it comes to the economy with the u.s. going to recession next year drives the rest of the world. do you think we will end up with a hard landing do we avoid that hard landing and the u.s. doesn't slip into contr contraction? >> we are not necessarily looking at deep recession, but

negative growth rates in the first half of next year. it is a really resilient summer for the u.s. the u.s. will come under pressure with the student loan repayments restarting and signs of loan delinquencies is a bit of a concern i think growth will slow and businesses are impacted by higher rates, too. growth will slow we think it enables fed cuts from the second quarter next year s year >> i was going to ask with the pessimistic view of the u.s., is this likely to come from the consumer for corporate for a while, there was a few that the u.s. recession would be triggered by the corporate side of things, not necessarily the consumer >> i think the consumer is the main thing in the short-term that resilience will fade. the business side will matter. whether you get a technical recession which is a couple of

k quarters of negative growth or something worse. the jobs market is a big surprise this year you know, you would expect some weakening there. we have seen vacancies lower, but unemployment hasn't gone up. firms don't want to actively hire as much we expect unemployment to rise we think the base case is a bit of a recession nothing catastrophic >> james, thank you for joining us james smith from ing siemens energy will reveal the guarantee with the government on thursday the group has been locked in talk was berlin and former parent company after warning it expects to book a 4.5 billion euro loss due to impairment

charges from the turbine unit. it will reveal earnings tomorrow and christian bruch will speak with "squawk box." tune in for that. glencore will buy a stake in the teck coal business glencore will pay $7 billion for a 77% stake in the business. this comes after the total takeover bid was turned down earlier this year. and vodafone said the a adjusted earnings will be flat at 1.3 billion euro. and coming up on the show, prime minister rishi sunak s shuffling the deck in the bid to

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welcome back to "street

signs. let's talk uk politics former prime minister david cameron returned to politics on monday as suella braverman was sacked after comments on homhome l less james cleverly was appointed as well as david cameron to the foreign secretary. cameron is known for his decision to call for brexit is not an elected member of parliament as a lord, he will not have to face the mps in the house of commons. let's welcome tobias to the program. thank you for being with us to help digest and understand what's going on in downing street let's kickoff with the question to you about what you think sunak is trying to achieve with the appointment of david cameron

as foreign secretary >> delighted to be with you. you are right. this was major nobody was expecting david cameron to get out of the car when it pulled up outside the door of number 10. if you see where the conservative party currently is in the polls, these were necessary changes. introducing heavyweights, not the least david cameron, there is a sign political change is taking place with energy and experience as you outlined, it draws a line under the difficult headlines from last week surrounding suella braverman it offers clarity for the position as a center right, not far-right party or mainstream party for the next general election in the area where i spend most of my time focusing on, it

introduces a big man who can lead with david coameron and wor with antony blinken at a time when state leadership is required our world has turned a dark corner more complex and diverse i'm pleased to see britain take a proactive role on the international stage. >> when it comes to the change of direction this may bring to the conservative party, it feels at odds with the message that rishi sunak has been putting out there. the conservative party conference, he used the word change 30 times in his speech. he wanted to position himself as the change candidate here he is bringing david cameron back into the fold and going down the path of making the conservative party more mainstream is there not a contradiction in this for rishi sunak >> let me make a comparison. i'm an american passport holder.

i attended the political conventions. they are similar to the uk party conferences designed to encourage and infuse the party base the message you take away from there is different to that of what you want to then express to the country as a whole the next general election is probably a year or little more away from that we see the big reshuffle, as i say, a change in slight direction or tone. look back in the british history where parties have occupied that center ground. they won when they go to the extreme and they vacate that center ground and leave it there for the opposition to grab that is what happened after 1997 when we lost and tony blair came in he looked like a tory. we then moved to the right for many years it was actually david cameron

that brought us back to the center when we get elected in 2010 we moved a little bit to the right in the last couple years perhaps the last couple years have been bumpy indeed and rishi sunak offered a calmer leadership taking us into a much more calmer waters he is now starting to craft the policy to put to the british people and say there is an a alternative to what labour is offering most people don't know what labour is offering because we had self inflicted problems. i'm pleased with this reshuffle and good news and you will see it resonate in the polls. >> tobias, you mentioned a bumpy time for politics. do you think this reshuffle in government, which is not the first we see happening in number 10, but actually supporting l

labour in the polls? >> it is all parties actually. i watch american politics as well there are different churches with different cau caucuses. the conservative party is no different from that. when rishi sunak had to form his first cabinet, he had to bring in various parts of the caucuses to be represented. whether we s what we see with the departure of braverman is he is able to stamp his own positive with the direction he is moving we have been playing a far greater role on the international stage. the windsor agreement and that a.i. conference summit that the vice president attended, these are the things that britain does

well we also helped shape the global agenda and do we need to start focusing on that as i stressed, there is an absence of western leadership and we've become complacent over the last 30 years. our adversities and come pet af competitors are starting to test we need to regroup if we are to protect the international standards and values >> speaking of regrouping, suella braverman left with the controversial remark she said i'll have more to say in due course. is it likely she will turn as conservative party leader? >> there is a lot there. if we win general election, rishi sunak continues to be primary. you alluded to the concern she was actually rallying and promoting herself.

she was showing her own ambition rather than working with the people she needed to work with to deal with the problems. the migration problem you are aware of and the fleasecing of e demons demonstrations it was alienating her relationship with the police doing so to rally party base support. having the debate of where the party might go now before the election is taking place that is disloyal to the prime minister that's why she was asked to step back. >> fascinating time to follow uk politics thank you for your time today. that was tobias ellewood. coming up on the show, russia reportedly manages to avoid caps on the seaborn crude. i'll have that discussion coming up next.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm sylvia mauro.

these are your headlines global equities hold the line ahead of the u.s. cpi with the global chief economist saying the central bank will be forced to face recession pressure. >> the accommodative is 250. if you are starting from 5.5 level, you need to reverse that to accommodate that is where the market debate is here. the iaea increases the demand outlook as they help to offset the weaker macroeconomics picture in other major economies. siemens shares are higher after it reports the 15 billion euro in guarantees from the german state and the parent company as soon as tomorrow. and guess who's back david cameron is the new foreign

secretary as rishi sunak reveals his new look cabinet let me show you how european boards are trading today they have been open for more than an hour now you cancan see the picture is positive at this stage if you look at the ftse 100, it is hovering the flat line. we are keeping a close eye on the ftse 100 off the back of the cabinet reshuffle. there was positive data this morning in employment figures. we will speak about that in a second when it comes to france, cac 40 is up .20% also significant upper moves in germany. looking at the ftse mib in italy, it is currently higher by

0.5% i want to show you how the fx market is moving so far in this session. particularly closer focus on cable. gdp at 122 we are seeing the gdp moving higher against the u.s. dollar off the back of the positive employment data i mentioned earlier in the show. of course, more broadly when we look at fx markets, there is a lot of focus when it comes to the yen which hit new lows against the u.s. dollar on monday when it comes to the bond market, this is the picture at this stage if we take a quick look at the italian market yield at the ten-year yield is 4.53%. i'm paying attention to italy because on friday, moody's will publish a rating opinion on

italy and that could move the market we are expecting euro inflation later in the week and that could have an implication on how bond markets move also a huge point for the markets in the u.s. today with the new cpi print. if you look at the u.s. treasuries at this point, this is the picture moving lower in the session. julianna. let's check on wall street for the u.s. open. we have green on the board all three of the majors are looking to open in positive territory. contained in terms of the moves higher there this follows the uneventful day yesterday. oil continuing to advance. utilities under performing yesterday. investors are in a holding pattern ahead of the cpi print later today. u.s. led efforts to cap the price of russia's crude exports. it is having next to no effect according to the financial times

whose analysis of russian export data and conversations with western officials has found none of october's crude shipments were made below the $60 cap. with russian export figures putting the average price at more than $80 a barrel i ask the eu sanction envoy david sullivan why these are not an issue >> the european sanctions and u.s. sanctions are largely aligned. the european sanctions represent a massive efforts that we have never seen it covers 60% of the previous imports from russia. it covers financial sanctions, trade sanctions, services, the

whole spectrum there are nuances in the fine tuning of these things, but i believe ourselves and the americans are working closely in pursuing the same objectives and using the same methods the united states has secondary sanctions and a slightly different structure than in the eu we coordinate on a daily basis and we are both pushing in the same direction. >> we are seeing a bit of political unscertainty at this stage, mr. o'sullivan. you just described how closely you have been working with the u.s. are you concerned with the u.s. election and that cooperation could actually, you know, crumble? >> we know there will be important elections in the united states this time next year we will wait to see the outcome. in the meantime, we have a biden administration that is firmly

committed to working in every way to show full support for ukraine which is what we are pursuing in the eu ele election cycles have uncertainty. at the end of the day, it is up to the american people to decide the candidates which present for election best represent for the future of america they want. in the meantime, we have excellent cooperation with the administration and that will continue well into the end of next year. >> for more on global security issues and cooperation, let's get to our own joumanna bercetche who joins us from the conference in london with a special guest. joumanna >> reporter: sylvia, thank you our conference continues and joining me is the senior fellow from the program at iass there is plenty to discuss

it is not a pretty time as far as global security is concerned. we had multiple geopolitical events in the last couple years. starting with the russian invasion of ukraine and then a month ago with the hamas attacks on israel. how do you chara characterize we are at this time >> we are seeing the military force by a number of different countries to accomplish objectives when countries and organizations go to war, that makes the world a less stable place and the economic shift am plplified from there. >> what ramifications will that have on the global economy we were at the imf conference a month ago. one of the big chapters was a focus on the concept of geo economic frag mentation.

you see it with economic policies as well with export restr restrictions the worst impact would be on the global economy how do you view it >> markets like stability. we are entering a space where we won't have the stability with russia's invasion of ukraine and eastern europe and hamas and china using its navys to intimidate the philippines this military force is becoming a more used industry by the different actors that conflict creates instability. look at the black sea grain initiative the war in ukraine and the inability to export wheat. the shockwaves across the global

south and impacting the cost of living around the world. those are the kinds of scenarios that need to be prepared to grapple with >> when you look at the world complex today, you understand there are completing blocs the western response in the hamass is to not fight the western was aligned and nato countries were aligned the global south is not clear cut with the desire to defend or support ukraine and military efforts. what can we extract from that? >> that is the central challenge of the biden administration and actually the trump administration before them which was thinking through they call it strategic competition. the idea is western democracies,

u.s. allies and partners, that are democratically involved believe china and russia is not just using military force, but using economic coercion and spreading misinformation and all of the tricks which they are using against our democracies. how do we protect our democracies? how do we shore things up so that we can have this world in which we want to live in that advances human rights and respects markets the global south is a key part of that. which country is the global south going to align with more basically, the answer to that question is going to determine how the international political economy and how the international order is organized for the next couple decades. the biden administration is

calling this the decisive decade we need to take action to protect the democracies now. >> what if we get a trump administration come back again i hear the possibility of the return of president trump and possibility of them wanting to withdraw from nato how much of a seismic event would that be? >> it would be very dramatic it is hard to overstate how profoundly geopolitically consequential the withdraw from nato would be. they want to create a more protectionist u.s. economy i think it is a little bit too early to say trump is the nominee. biden wasn't a player in the previous cycle there is a lot that remains to

be seen. nikki haley is running a great ground game in new hampshire that can change. i'm more worried about the u.s. congress and dysfunction there >> we spoke with the former assistant secretary to the u.s. treasury earlier we were talking about that let me bring it back to public finances you think about the military and a lot of internal debate in congress with military aid to israel and alongside with the support for ukraine. we are having the same discussions in europe and germany putting out a package as countries go down the fiscal consolidation route. what does that mean for the future of military spending? governments have a lot l ll less leeway in the finances. >> the target that the nato allies is 2% of gross domestic

product on military. european spending has not met the target for decades it is not just spending now, but spending in the future and how do you re-capitalize with the decline in defense spending >> thank you for joining me. senior fellow from the program at csis. i started off saying we spoken to many people one was ben harris, but we also spoke to the ubs chief economist. ubs has an interesting view. they are one of the few houses out there still actually forecasting two or three consecutive negative quarters of growth or recession.

they are suggesting that the fed may have to cut rates by 275 basis points three times more than what is priced in the market let's take a listen to the interview i had a few hours ago. >> we think inflation will fall to below target next year and unemployment to 4.9% by the end of the year. suddenly, the model will say you need to be accommodative that is 250 for them if you are starting from 5.5% level, you need to reverse to accommodate. that is where the market debate is because the banks have recession forecast for the u.s., they don't have the fed forecast because they have different unemployment >> very big call from the economist. will the fed have the same view? will it mirror the perception next year? i'll speak to a well known voice

from the st. louis fed james bullard. we will have that at 10:30 a.m. this morning to get his views on what the fed is thinking, but the u.s. economy and let's not forget the u.s. cpi print at 10 10:30. >> joumanna, thank you very much i love the conference this morning. over the incnext few weeks, cnbc is looking at a new series of activating wealth we are lifting the curtain on investment in theater with the closer look at what it takes to put on a stage here in london. >> london agen's west end is ret roar back. figures show 16 million people attended the performance here in london last year as demand for the audience grows, could now be the right time to invest in theater? what does it take to back the

next big hit performing arts is the fastest sector of the economy in the uk according to the data for culture, media and sport, the sector contributed an estimated 11.5 billion pounds to the overall economy. with the number of performances rising since the pandemic, west end theater is the asset class worth paying attention. >> two models in london. what we call the not-for-profit sector and commercial sector the not-for-profit sector is a group of charity foundations they produce lots of shows through the year the commercial sector is what you think about with the west end. >> who are the investors that put money into the commercial theaters >> it is a mixture there are lots of individuals

who are passionate about theater and have enough disposable income that they can enjoy that speculation. we always say in theater, we don't have people invest that can't afford to lose it. if you are certain you wouldn't want to take money that didn't know what the risks they were getting into, but it is a bit like investing in startup. >> how much would you need to invest to see a return investors in london can contribute a couple of thousand pounds to pbuy into a play. as productions get bigger, they are more difficult to produce. budgets can reach millions in new york, the stakes are higher >> our general rule of thumb, probably still about the same with the exchange rate you change a pound tie o a dollr

sign and add a zero to the end the model is much tighter on broadway because the theater is bigger and ticket prices are higher, if it works on broadway, the potential for profit is also much higher. >> the pandemic shook things up for live entertainment producers were faced with a new set of challenges. inflation and rising costs from energy bills and ticket prices further weigh on the sector. here in the uk, the government stepped in to extend current tax relief for theaters for an additional two years to help producers and allow them to attract foreign investment when it comes to finding the next big hit, it is about fundamentals location can play a big role the show that eleanor produces is set inside the historic london county hall there could be more things at play >> what is it about the show that on a tuesday evening, somebody wants to spend 30 or 40 or 50 pounds at least to buy a

couple of tickets and go to see the show something about it has to make them to decide to do that. before the show has opened, that is a big name actor or writer. once the show is open, often there can be reviews or word of mouth. word of mouth is still a powerful thing >> this is a fun feature investing is like pbuying a rac horse. for more how to make your money work, i would evncourage you to check out my article on cnbc.com. coming up on the show, arjun is at the summit show in liberty. he will speak with frank mccourt jr., the project liberty unr. we will have that interview for you next

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now our next guest says there is a rapid erosion of democracy in the american political system and has set up a non-profit called project

liberty in a bid to rein in the harms of social media and technology let's cross over to arjun in lisbon good morning, arjun. >> reporter: good morning, sylvia there will be fascinating conversations in the next day and a half at the summit with what is wrong in the industry with the internet and where do things like a.i. play into this encryption to kickoff the coverage, i like to introduce frank mccourt frank, you are here talking about the state of social media and state of the internet. you've got issues with it right now. lay it out for us. >> i think it is becoming more and more apparent that the current internet is broken and there is a lot of harm caused. this is alarming people to a greater degree because we see now the arrival of generative a.i. which is a fancy name for more centralized autocratic

technology surveillance. i think it is time to fix what's broken the internet as we have been using it for the last 30 years, is old technology and now it is time to gain the knowledge from the last three decades and rese the internet and prioritize people >> when you say the internet is broken, you refer to taking issue with large technology companies that rely on collection of data from users. is that right? where do you see it? >> i think if you think about it in two buckets one is architecture that surveils people. we're basically -- our data is scraped and controlled by somebody else other than ourselves. that is one big problem. the other is how social media has become weaponized. we no longer have a shared set

of facts or trust in one another. we don't have a shared truth it is hard to solve other problems when we're in disarray. it is easy for enemies of democracy to disable and create chaos. there is a lot of outgrowth. if you are concerned about democracy or the health of your kids and we have mental health issues with our kids being preyed upon as well. we need to fix what's broken. let's fix the tech so it prioritizes people and let innovators build on a new internet that prioritizes people, not platforms and machines >> you will talk about the tech through the web summit what is the tech if you say it is here, what changes the game in your view? >> i'm oversimplifying a bit let's think of the internet in three generations or phases. the first, over 50 years ago,

was enabled but a protocol that was joined together called tcp/ip that connected computer to computer then second generation of the internet which is what we use. worldwide web. a simple protocol called http. we adopted it. we're connected and we use it. it connected the data. we are arguing the third generation of the internet should focus on people-to-people the technical term is social graphs everything we do in our digital life is now being scraped and aggregated and controlled by someone else i'm suggesting and many others are in agreement, that each of us as individuals, should regain control of our data. we should own it and control it and we should decide what to do with it. not leave it up to five platforms to decide.

>> frank, thank you for running through your thoughts. >> reporter: that was frank mccourt, founder of project liberty. back to you. >> arjun, great stuff. let's check on the u.s. futures. we have green across the board contained moves higher as investors brace for the cpi print. we are keeping an eye on washington, d.c. with the potential for the u.s. shutdown on friday. that is taking a backseat to the cpi today. something to keep in mind. that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum with sylvia amauro. we have "worldwide exchange" coming up next

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." bracing for cpi. wall street preparing for a fresh read on consumer prices that will show the fed how far it remains from the 2% target. if recent history is any guide, that is not necessarily a bad thing for stocks. also, retail on the radar and what has been a mixed quarter for the sector as home depot gets set to report this morning. in san francisco, world leaders meet for the apec summit as details emerge ahead of president biden's and president