the domain all in jim.com. so you can use it any time he says give me a name, josh brown, final trade. >> invitation homes, a great dividend payer >> rob, name >> broadcom. >> qualcomm. >> cummins >> "the exchange" is now see you on "closing bell." thank you very much, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. did today's cip numbers put cuts on the table and clear the way for a year-end rally we seem to be getting one today. our market guest says yes to all of this, that it's not too late to get in. he's eyeing one trade at a specific time to make it plus, investing overseas there is a lot of opportunity right now, just not in china we have what part of the world

to be bullish on and diet drugs have been weighing down the drug trade, but burnstein says upside. let's start with the rally fueled by the softer cpi report. you can see the dow up 1.4%. the s&p up 1.9% and the nasdaq up 2.3%. and the small caps, you say the nasdaq gain is impressive, the russell 2,000 is on base for the best day in over a year, up 4.6% today. the yield on the ten-year reversing to the lowest level, brings us back to about september. where is the ten-year? 4469 watch the two-year, too. let's dig a little further into that cooler than expected inflation print. consumer prices unchanged from the month prior, up 3.2% from a year ago

core inflation up 4%, but that was the smallest increase in more than two years. does this move the fed to the sidelines? let's bring in chief economist paul donovan and steve liesman welcome to both of you paul, i suppose that's the question to ask, although at this point, if inflation is falling and they don't start cutting, they're tightening policy further >> to be honest, you have to remember they're tightening quantitative policy, and they're sort of tightening regulatory policy certainly you have the willingness to supply credit has tightened. and we are getting rising real rates. so you have the trifecta all three pillars of fed policy are pointing to tightening now, i don't think the fed is going to ease this year, frankly, personally, i think the fed has overtightened. but i don't think they will be easing until next year they're going to want to see a bit more decline in inflation, which will come. then the fed will try to keep

real rates steady. >> that's interesting. you think we have already overtightened. that's not the consensus view, a lot of people think they're still behind or that the economy has been surprisingly resilient. what telling you they have done too much already >> the thing is, to quote the nobel laureate, you have to get your hands dirty with the details of the data. when we start burrowing beneath the surface of core inflation in the united states, what do we find we find the u.s. doesn't really have an inflation problem, it has a bit of a florida problem florida has quite high inflation, but lots of other cities, inflation is quite low if you look across the met metropolitan places, miami is still having a problem middle class homeowners, if you own your own home, you do not pay owner's equivalent rent, you are not experiencing a 6.8%

increase year over year in the cost of mortgages. you are facing an inflation rate that is soft 2%, and that's been the case for some time so when we look at these dif c - different cities, when we look at the middle income families, no evidence of inflation stickiness, evidence that inflation is slowing down in the face of a relentless tightening cycle from the fed >> steve >> umm, paul donovan makes a lot of sense the only trouble with paul's argument is that the fed is going to wait until these realities come into the actual indi indi in indices. we've been waiting for two things we've been waiting for lower wages to work their way into lower service inflation and waiting for housing to work its way into the housing data. that began, i think, in earnest

this month the fed will want to see a lot more of this, especially because, you know, as powell just said, they were burned before by a head fake when it came to inflation last year and earlier this year, as well so it's going to watch to make sure that these gains are not revised away ghoul goolsbee just talked and ex-ternal shocks coming to the economy. the more interesting thing to me, paul, if you don't mind, you have 275 basis points of cuts built in for next year, do i have that right? even the market, which is more ambitious than the fed itself by a long way, has just 100 built in how do you get to 275 next year? >> so we don't have that, i'm afraid that's my colleagues in the investment bank, which is afternoon independent research unit so for us, we're looking for three hikes next year, that's essentially matching the decline

in inflation so as we see inflation coming down, and i agree with you, we have to see the fall in the numbers. now, personally, as an economist, i think that an economic run on a central bank should be preempting this, but we have a reactive central bank, not a preemptive central bank. we don't have a medium term policy framework, we have data depen dan si i'm not in favor, but with my accept, they're never going to run the place. so what powell is going to do, i think, is with a lag, follow the decline in inflation and will want to see that certainty of inflation coming down, and then he'll respond the following quarter by cutting the equivalent in the drop in inflation. >> the trouble with that, paul, i think you'll acknowledge that puts the fed behind the gates and creates the danger that they

get tremendous get the recession they're trying to avoid nobody will ever put me on the central bank either, but you pick a forecast and go with it there was an argument that if the fed was not sufficiently restrictive, it should have raised rate toss to the point we it was sufficiently restrictive. so this is our forecast and going with it. instead of just sitting here where we are essentially right here, which is in this limbo of is the fed sufficiently restrictive. by the way, i think the market has gone a little overboard and we're learning today that the market was really worried about this report with partially the relief it's getting today. i didn't realize that the market was so hung up on this inflation report today >> paul, let me ask you one more i could go eight more minutes, but i want to ask you the following question when you talk about the fed needing to be more proactive and not reactive, what would you

have them go off of right now? i could give you three dif feret labor market indicators, but when we get negative payrolls and so forth, what would be the indicators that would tell you there's potentially trouble out there and how should they reis that correct >> i always tell our clients, you cannot look at one or two indicators, what is your favorite i wndicator the quality of economic data is s substantially less in the uk, they just don't believe the numbers anymore on the labor market so it is very dangerous to say, we're going is wait for payrolls payrolls on a survey, 55% of companies refuse to say what theirpayrolls are. so what you have got to do is look at a broad range of indicators and have a framework

clearly -- >> give me four or five of them in the dwindling moments we have, what should be the indicators they should be looking at right now >> you have to look at the employer report, new big data surveying, online job surveys. look at what is happening with wage growth and credit card data this all gives you a very wholistic picture of what's going on >> quick last word, steve? >> there's a lot of big data out there. the fed is incorporating some of it it needs to incorporate more of it adp is pointing to a much lower employment gains, as well as our new cnbc retail monitor that shows consumer spending has been weaker and points me to tomorrow where the retail sales report comes out. again, we'll have to run on that >> i'm glad that all week, this was the week you have more of that high frequency data, and it has been a little weaker than

the top level stuff. thank you both i appreciate it. we've got breaking news on mortgage rates diane olig has the details >> the average rate on the 30-year fixed dropped 18 bases points to 7.4% even. rates follow loosely the yield on the ten-year treasury rates have been on a wild ride the 30-year jumped over 8% in october and turned lower as the fed paused and the monthly jobs report coming in on the low side while rates have moved within 1%, it means a lot of home buyers who are on the edge to qualify for a mortgage in this higher rate range. just to compare the difference between 7% and 8% on the 30-year, if you were buying a

$400,000 home with 20% down on the mortgage, the difference in that monthly payment is $220 but if you compare 8% to 3%, which we had just two years ago, that difference is over $1,000 so this is real money out in a very pricey market any way, kelly. >> 7.4%, that is something diana, thank you very much we appreciate it now to the markets speaking of fbig reactions. we have a lot of beaten down stocks up smartly today, even paramount. the semi etf at a new all-time high today my next guest is buying into the momentum trade and has been since august after he forecasted the s&p near 5,000 he still expects this bullish trend to continue without much pullback in sight. andrew is back with us welcome. i wanted to play the baearishnes

that our last guest had so you can explain how long these can exist side by side stocks rallies on this relief about fed and inflation, but still with larger concerns about the cycle per siszing. -- persisting >> the key thing is that the cpi print has pushed rates lower at 4 po.46 on the ten-year, the stock market can trade at a higher multiple, and combine that with the fact that earnings have come through and as we roll into next year, we're going to start next year with an earnings consensus, s&p estimate of close to 2.50. that's why the market is rallying it's the lower rates where bonds are less of a competitor to stocks, and that pushes the valuation higher >> one quote from our robert holmes, as we move through earnings season, where the record earnings we were expecting in q4 we got them in q

3. that's a good thing. but for six weeks straight, q4 expectations have been revised down by about five points, and we expect declines in q4 is that supportive for stocks? >> i think so, because even with modestly lower earnings for next year, we're still looking at 11% earnings growth coming off a flat year, so we're inflecting that was a key -- one of my key reasons why i felt we have a fourth quarter rally as the market recognizes after a flat year over year earnings year, we will have inflecting to positive earnings growth next year. i still think that's the case. companies are not guiding lower for next year. and so that's very, very positive for earnings recovery that is a key reasonwhy, you

know, again, i felt that we have a fourth quarter rally >> how much does your conviction extend beyond that >> well, what i think when the dust settles on this year and next, this year is going to be, for the s&p, a very good year. i suspect next year will be a positive year but not nearly as good because the key difference is we started this year, kelly we talked about this before with so many bears. most strategists were negative going into this year everyone was on one side of the boat very bearish. i suspect as we begin next year, the level of enthusiasm will be higher for stocks so the path will be a little tougher i still think it will be a good year but not nearly as good as this year. i certainly felt like kind of a done a few weeks ago when the market was up 4 100, but i feel

a little more redeemed today >> the bears have been in the same boat. we still haven't taken out the highs from the end of 2021 for the s&p, which was around 4800, correct me if i'm wrong. what does that tell you that for the last two years now we have gone nowhere >> a friend of mine gives a great analogy. it's like a beach ball held under water. eventually, it breaks to the upside i think this is a very important metric to understand, kelly, because when i talk to clients and advisers, they still say to me, my clients are not positive on stocks because we're still -- they're still below where they were two years ago in terms of their total active value so i don't think optimism is going to get anywhere until we break above that high. but the point of this is, two

years of staying low, the market is not going to break to the downside eventually, it will break to the upside that's just the way it happens >> you think it's going to be mag-7 leading the way once again? >> certainly this year i think you're getting a big bounce today in some of the stocks that have underperformed. but typically at this time of the year, it's momentum stocks certainly as we get into the second half of december, yes, mutual funds sell in okctober, but individually in december that's why the loser of the year continue to be the losers in december so i think the magnificent seven, if they have great fundamentals, i dismiss the analogy to 1999, because they're not trading rat nearly the value

wa -- valuation, and they're beating the numb eers. but i would use it in a combination with the value names that are reporting good numbers. the area that we have avoided all year, highlighted previously on the show, is the defensive stocks because true to human nature, after the bear market of last year investors piled into the defensive stocks and got expensive. so i still think health care, staples, you utilities, these ae the areas to avoid >> andrew, looking at tech and at a couple of industrial financial plays, staying bullish until year end, thank you for joining us to make your case today. >> thanks, kelly coming up, the china etf is up about 1%, and we'll be joined with why our next guest is not buying chinese stocks here plus, three big retail names

on deck to report tomorrow morning. we'll get you the story and the trade on tjx, target and we'll get a quick glance with the mavblgts, the dow up 472 points. the nasdaq leading the way, up more than 2%, and the small cap russells up 4.5% back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange." presidents biden and xi jinping are set to meet at the asian pacific economic conference tomorrow l it will be president xi's first time in the u.s. in six years. could tomorrow's summit mark the beginning of a more normalized relationship with our two countries? why not, amon? >> joe biden is in the air on his way to san francisco now, but he stopped to talk to reporters in d.c. and gave a sense of how he would define a success in his meeting with china's xi jinping here is what he said >> to get back on a normal course of corresponding, being able to pick up a phone and talk

to one another in a crisis, being able to make sure our militaries still have contact with one another we can't take -- as i told you, we're not trying to decouple from china but what we're trying to do is change the relationship for the better >> you could hear biden keeping expectations for this segsz relatively low -- this session relatively low th a lot of this visit will be about at least making sure the relationship doesn't get any worse with u.s. officials repeating the mantra this week that competition with china does not have to mean confrontation between the two countries. >> interesting to hear him define those two goals, top

level officials and then the military speaking with one another. despite the meeting between biden and xi, my next guest says the equity mavrket in china doesn't look good now and is finding better opportunities elsewhere. joining me now is the president of movius investing consulting mark, good to have you here. so you still think there's a lot of political risk? >> yeah, you can see that in the index if you look at the china index, it hasn't moved none of these stocks have really moved at all there's so many issues between the two countries. not only taiwan, the south china sea, the fentanyl being shipped from china so many issues that are negative so i don't see much happening. of course, the u.s. is very concerned about having the

military's communicate with each other. but as you know, there's a lot of strife now taking place within the military in china xi jinping has made a number of very critical changes in the rocket forces. so putting this all together, it does not look very good. and what i think is the way to get into china if you want to be in china is through taiwan, oddly enough, even though you may fear there's going to be some kind of invasion of taiwan, because taiwan and china, shipping between each other lots of goods and services. if you go into taiwan, you can then get into china in an indirect way >> in other words, you would be bullish both on taiwanese investments and also those which maybe most of them that are geared towards china so it's just you're a little concerned about investing directly there in china. >> exactly of course, the economy is not

doing very well in china but the government is putting an incredible amount of effort to upgrade the semiconductor technology that's why they need taiwan, because as you know, taiwan is the center of high-end semiconductor production in the world. so that's where the emphasis will be. of course, the general economy in scchina is not doing very wel but the tech sector will be a big focus for the government >> does the chinese reliance on taiwan make an invasion more or less likely than it seems to be for a lot of analysts? >> i think less likely what china wants is a peaceful takeover, so that they can take advantage of all the technology that you have in taiwan. so i just don't see a hot war taking place of course, accidents can happen,

but i just don't see that happening in the near future >> even a blockade >> even a blockade, because there's so much trade going on between taiwan and china it wouldn't make sense for either of them to have a blockade >> interesting the place that i tease that you're bullish on is india, a country that with each passing year, people have higher hopes for. can it meet those expectations >> i think so. i'm talking today from bangalore. i've been to five cities in endia the last two weeks you can feel the incredible excitement and potential for growth here. infrastructure needs a lot of work, and they're building roads, railroads, doing a lot of upgrading in the country of course, the economic growth rate is one of the highest in the world. so there's still great opportunities. of course, the stock market has done very well and perform ed a

well as the u.s. market as a matter of fact in somis kae cases, outperforme u.s. market. as you know, companies like icici and others, we like the medium sized companies with potential growth in those companies is very good >> maybe people shouldn't take it for grant it that india will be an easy player to enter the existing world order perhaps could there be political risk there in the years to come as much as there is in china right now? >> oh, there's no question there will be political risk because you know it's a nation of separate states you go from one state to another, and you have a different language the good news is that the common language is english and hindi. but the individual states are

very powerful and have their own cultures of coursingecourse, one of the accomplishments of modei is to get these states together and talk more and more so there will be political problems, just like in the u.s you have different states contending with each other, the same thing in india. >> yeah. j more and more schools in my neck of the woods are celebrating mark, appreciate it. >> thank you coming up, it's the deal of the day. online shopping getting social ahead of the holiday season, with amazon and snap teaming up to take on tiktok. we have the details ahead. as we head to break, here's a look at the sector leaders real estate and utilities near the top today. back after this. burger and fries. soup and salad.

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you're eligible, help you enroll over the phone. it's that easy! call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. welcome back to "the exchange." markets are rallying right now with the dow up almost 500 points it's the laggards today, you can see what is it called? ascending ordzer the s&p is up 2% today the russell up 4.8%. as you might discern, regional banks are benefiting from the relief in rates, having the best day since january of 2021, up 7.5% western alliance up 10%. truist up 6%, as well. it's not just the regionals.

the ban the chipmakees, as you can see, they're rallying analog devices, qualcomm, some of the naming leading the way. and a new bet using options against chip stocks. t that likely equates to 1,000 put contracts. for more, go to cnbc.com now to tyler mathisen for a news update hi, tyler. >> kelly, hello. the march for israel is underway in washington, d.c tens of thousands of dmen demonstrators gathering to show support for israel family members of hostages showed up to be the voice of those taken by hamas organizers said they are calling

for the return of the hostages, and for israel's right to remain free from violence joe biden on his way to san francisco this afternoon for the asia pacific cooperation summit, apec he's expected to meet with chinese president xi jinping to discuss bettering communication and managing competition as the two work to ease tensions between their countries. this will be the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in a year. youtube is cracking down on ai generated music the platform will require users to label realistic ai content when uploading videos, especially about inditopics lik elections. failure to label a video could result it the video being taken down or demontization. whatever that means. >> tyler, thanks coming up, we have some marquee names set to report in

the morning. we'll look at their results, next across the globe, industries are transforming and businesses need to navigate

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welcome back home depot posting a beat and management says inflation has abated does it bode well for the rest of retail earnings season? let's look ahead to these three. here with the trades is gina sanchez. good to see you. let's start with target. shares down 25% this year. they revised guidance lower.

the ceo warned about continued near-term topline challenges analysts are concerned about demand and the continuing theft problem which the company blamed for nine store closures. are you a buyer here >> so this is a tough one, because you're right, theout look for target is not great they are not projecting great numbers, and they have had trouble with traffic into stores and just topline revenue however, the kind of finally seeing some relief in inflation and seeing some relief in the supply chain, and that has allowed them to build up profitability. so operating margins are starting to expand so the company itself is becoming more and more profitable, despite the fact that it's fighting these tough head winds the one thing is it is very champion right now it is very attractive relative to the rest of the beaten down sector so if you're legging into this, it is on valuation

>> i don't know if we can show the price-to-earnings multiples. do you know it off the top of your head? >> it's down about 9 >> so you says this is a value trade almost more than anything, still down about 14% the past three months let's move along to jd.com they have a huge head wind in china. more promotions are expected to entice some buyers back. so we have a chinese story, retail story here stuck in the middle of the rest of earnings season, and why -- who would want to put their necks out? >> you have to believe that china is turning a corner, and gdp has been really shaky.

there are -- you can make a strong argument we're starting to see some stabilization in the gdp numb eers and starting to s some support in retail sales in china and green chutes in the property sector, which is an area of china that still represents the greatest risk and so if you believe all that, then you have to believe that the long-awaited china reopening and consumption story should play out the outlook is still not very positive yet, so you're listening to hear what that outlook is at the, you know, at the e-commerce company level. if you believe that you're legging into a china reopening, this is a play that should work. >> amazing to see shcher chers 40% since nine years ago do you think the rise of those

apps is having an impact >> right now, a lot of things are having a lot of impact are you saying in the chinese market specifically or broadly >> yeah, i was saying just broadly speaking do you know, are they having an impact in china, as well it's obvious they're having an impact here. >> it's hard to say right now. right now what's driving the market isn't competition, it's just simply tightening across the consumer and retail sectors. >> tjx, this has been the real outperformer with a huge market cap of $100 billion. it's in part to winning share from bed, bath, and beyond as they have experienced accelerated traffic in home goods in particular. who was it, mike mayo, stick with goliath, winner take all things

do you stick with goliath here >> this is expensive but worth it this is a store that everybody loves, when times are tough, people like value. and that's the difference between tjx and target tjx, you're going to tj max and marshal's. at home goods, they are taking market share from bed, bath, and beyond the traffic numbers on all these stores has been very positive and expected to continue to be positive, despite the fact that the overall outlook for consumption over the next quarter is still expected to continue to decline. this is a company that continues to get more than its fair share of traffic you know, the valuation reflects it it's over 30 times earnings. so this is one you're playing for. however, the outlook is still expected to have positive growth next year. that's a big deal. >> it is i'm sensing some cautious optimism on your part. gina, thank you so much.

coming up, amazon is teaming up with yet another social media company as it try toss get back in front of young shoppers those details and whether it can help legacy cisoal media names deal with ad woes, that's next in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

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welcome back snap is the latest soeshl imme -- social media to team one amazon. diedra bosa joins us with more this a big deal? >> it is kind of this is just the latest. it's had partnerships with meta and even shopify so this is amazon powering social media shopping. it's becoming more and more important, because companies like tiktok are kind of pioneering the way western companies haven't been as successful in getting people to shop through their social media platforms as tiktok is

becoming so by partnering with meta and snap, amazon lets you -- or the partnership allows users to buy products on amazon without even leaving the app. on the surface, it feels counter counterintuitive we know that amazon has been building its amazon business very quickly but different propositions here. you go to a facebook or an instagram or a snap to discover products they're fed to you through social media whereas amazon's advertising proposition is more intent based. so remember too, amazon has spent 2th last few years building up, doubling its logistics network. so it gets to serve the merchants in this way, and flex that muscle that it's been building of course, kelly, it started with this. this is because you're seeing a rise of -- largely because you are seeing the rise of these chinese e-commerce platforms >> i this we're going to hear a

lot more about temu and others what is it like in san francisco today? you have seen the city through so many incarnations the last couple of years. it must be quite the scene >> i have. one thing that i would say, it wasn't great before the pandemic, and it wasn't great after the pandemic so there wasn't really that much of a change. it did get worse over the pandemic but i've never seen it as clean as i have over the last few days so it really did clean up, and it's leaving a lot of folks to wonder why can't it be like this always so maybe it will serve as inspiration to law mamakers who want to make the city better it's been really nice the last few days >> i don't know if they can do pop-up restaurants for this, but vacancy wise, we have spoken to real estate investors who like to bottom fish in the san francisco market could this kind of help service an inflection point to bring

some leases back >> i think that's already happening. this generative ai revival, you haved a open ai and other companies lease huge amounts of space. so the idea is when we are on national display, will encourage maybe more companies that have moved out of san francisco to come back. the tall edent is coming back wh is why some of the biggest ai companies are here >> diedra, thank you out in san francisco for us today. by the way, don't miss an interview with microsoft's ceo tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. right here on "the exchange." still to come, shares of this consumer staple name down this year. tweet me if you think you know the history chart. burnstein says they can weather the weight loss drug storm that's next.

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change" shares of consider kraft hines are higher today $40 price target, that's about 20% upside the move is partly valuation based, but they also say that kraft's protein forward portfolio gives them a competitive advantage as weight loss drugs change consumer behavior joining us now senior research analyst for u.s. food at bernstein. alove this, protein power. to what extent is that going to help them out here >> so, if you think about kraft's portfolio here in the u.s., it's very focussed on oscar mayer lunch meeats. you have the philadelphia cream cheese and that's very protein forward. what we're seeing from the glp one patients the ozempic and mounjaro is that protein is really important for preserving mu muscle mass as they lose weight and maintaining hair protein forward is likely to

perform better and obviously we have seen the food stocks do pretty poorly year to date for various reasons. with kraft being on the right side of the glp one question, that's the reason for the upgrade today. >> sure, but if i were thinking protein, i might think hamburger, hot dogs and what were the other products they have that you mentioned? >> so they have philadelphia cream cheese -- >> cream cheese. >> yes, exactly. now, there's different types of protein, obviously one of the things the glp one patients are saying is that eating foods that are too greasy is sometimes something that's going to not play with them very well, causing gastrointestinal issues anything that's heavily greasy like a hamburger, you might take a bite or two of it for enjoyment but probably not going to eat the whole thing. >> wait a minute this is a bomb shell if that's the case then i should be short mcdonald's and burger king and who else, shake shack and you think burgers could be a casualty of the glip one drug so to speak

>> well, i'm not a restaurant analyst, but certainly what we're hearing is that greasy foods are something that you can eat them but you're not going to eat them in excess. >> interesting who else in this -- so kraft in particular jumps out to you. again, they've spun out a lot more snacky stuff. what about the rest of your coverage space in who else is hanging in there better and who do you think is more at risk >> sure. so simply good foods is a company that produces a lot of protein treats, protein bars, protein shakes particularly. and the protein shakes market actually seems to be doing pretty well out of this. so i definitely put that in the winner's category with respect to glp 1s. i think the other end of the spectrum, we are a bit concerned about the confectionary category and what a lot of the glp 1 patients are saying, you know what, i used to crave a lot of junk food and a lot of chocolate and confectionary. and frankly that craving on these drugs has kind of dropped away i might not have lost my sweet

tooth completely instead of a whole chocolate bar fairly frequently, i might have a piece of it a few times a week so it's very -- it's going to play out very differently i think across the space. >> and very timely showed that chart of hershey i'm thinking of companies like hershey or telenova is the snacks division there. could it get to the point they need to think equiztive to include more protein i don't know if newer players on the market, is that a route you would recommend they go? >> absolutely. so, we have already been talking how -- now, the glp 1 impact is going to phase in slowly over the next five to ten years it's not as though everybody will be on them tomorrow but as that pressure comes through the sector, that disruption comes through the space, absolutely. looking for protein forward, smaller companies. i've actually been recommending simply good foods because it's a protein forward company and something that might become an

acquisition target at the time. >> yeah. for those who are skeptical of this whole argument and just think it's all overblown, all overhypered and no way it can have that big of an impact, what would you say? >> i would say overall the packaged food broadly offer eating broadly, that's about right. i mean, at the moment we have 1% of u.s. adults on this maybe it ramps up to 10% of u.s. adults which would be a third, a full third of the people that are obese in the u.s. today. that's a lot so, if we went to 10% of the u.s. adult population, people report reducing their calorie intake by 25% or so while they're on these drugs and if they manage to keep the weight off beyond that. so that's only 10% times 25%, which is a 2.5% impact and that's -- if that scales in over a five-year period, we're only talking about half a percent problem for volumes. so i don't think it's an issue for food overall, which is one of the reasons i'm upgrading kraft. but i do think that there are

going to be pockets where there's bigger concerns. as i say, the junk food area is one of the areas where i think the cravings go away. >> thank you for joining us today to explain it. we appreciate it. >> sure. >> joining me from bernstein makes me look at the shopping market in a whole different way. that does it for "the exchange." next on "power lunch," we're sticking with the consumer but turning to the luxury end after another disappointing high-end auction. tyler is gettingea llee you on the other side of this break. [coffee pouring] (♪♪) [van engine] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) [garage door opening] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) (♪♪)

♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch" alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathison rally on wall street, cpi coming in flat than previous month and less than expected, markets seem to be declaring victory, spiking the ball in the fight against inflation and thinking this means the fed is really done hiking, kelly. >> that's why we're seeing this big rally in stocks today. take a loo