you're seeing really smart actions from people like target who are introducing more accessible price point offerings, they just did this in september with the launch of figment, a kitchenware line that starts, you know, with prices as low as three bucks >> all right, robbie, thank you for joining us we'll watch target tomorrow. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight off to the races stocks rallying in a big way after a tamer than expected inflation roirt. but is this really the all-clear investors been waiting for and the countdown is on to the biden/xi meeting what is at stalk ke when they m face-to-face plus, the megameltup in shares of meta home depot builds up big gains and the latest big bet the stories behind these movers

all coming up. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- and we have to start off with that major rally on wall street. the s&p and nasdaq posting their best days since april. the s&p jumping nearly 2%. the dow up 490 points. and the big standout, the small cap russell 2,000, which had its best day of the year, up 5%. the moves coming after a tamer than expected inflation report, further reassuringe ing investo that the fed is done raising rates. and take a look at some sector standouts. regional banks soaring, flirting with the 200-day moving average. the builders, less than 5% from an all-time high is today a cpi print a green light for the markets? what's changed here, chris

it feels like everything has changed. has it >> was today a game change for the market after what was a squishy year, for most of the year, we were talking about now narrow it was, does a 15 to 1 advancers versus decliners, best day we've seen since last year's low, really going back to the march 2020 low, does that flip the script here? i think the big test is, what is consumer discretionary do? if you look at the soft landings historically, 1994-95, '67-68. discretionary roared coming out of them. i any think there's more work t there. and if you look at the iwm versus qqq pair, that could rally 15% before it even gets back to resistance so, there's still some daylight in front of us here on those moves. >> yeah, i think we blew a lot of those downtrends to this reds i think you have, whether it's -- even the s&p, between

4350 and 4400, people are like, we are still on the downtrend from august 1. the russell, to me, still has plenty of room to run. the kr -- it was a big, big run in regional banks. and even if we have a slowing consumer and credit issues, i don't think that changed day over day i think we have issues that are going to be confronted with a slower economy and a consumer that is catching up to spent-down savings and possibly even joblessness, but i think you have a case where banks have room to run. the stress that was on these banks, that was certainly coming from interest rates, you know, we can dissect kcpi all you want there were some elements that were really important. owners equivalent rent may be stabilizing. the headline stuff, energy prices were a big gift, but there are some elements that stru structurally look like they could be getting better. we're going to have a great, and stick around for an international conversation later on in the show, the dollar's weakness sets up a lot of different asset classes, in

including resources and absolutely international, and i think it was an exciting day for that >> do you feel better overall compared to 24 hours ago >> yeah, i did we didn't have a really hot number and reignite the, the fed is active once again it seems like, they're fully done, i don't think it matters but i think they're not going to call success yet, but they're well on the way for having engineered this, and so, that is good i look at something like home depot, and that was nice, the earnings were fine they were good they were better than expected but that's not why the stock was up this much anything remotely related to anything real estate, that was great. it seemed -- i thought we would have a little more of a rotation, maybe away from some of the magnificent seven, just because there are so many other things that are really cheap >> right >> the divergence has been so huge i thought we would have more rotation than that but the iwm, to me, was the most

impressive thing >> and that is julie biel's sandbox, the russell do you think there's still more daylight ahead >> yeah, i think -- if you look at the spreads in valuation, there's still substantial between, you know, small, mid, and large, and i think that's just a reflection that people are still a little worried about higher for longer, right yes, we're probably going to be at these levels and not higher, but if it's up there, it's going to be difficult for smaller businesses to refinance themselves so, while i'm super excited to see more enthusiasm around small caps, i recommend being very, very cautious, particularly focusing on businesses with really clean balance sheets right now. >> let's say you believe that the santa claus rally is here, whatever you want to call it, the rally into year-in are we in this sweet spot, are we in a sweet spot right now where the full impact of the past, the impact of rates has not hit the consumer yet, we're seeing the benefit of inflation coming down, but we haven't seen the really hard impact of higher

rates? >> we're coming twlhrough a 4.9 gdp on the company, with 3.7 unemployment, with credit nowhere a problem just yet i was the guy yesterday that said, i have to go back to this, i said something like, i don't think this cpi could be much of a driver i think we've had enough juice out of these things. so, totally wrong on that. but -- yes, and i think it gets back to the banks. it's great having a guy luke ch like chris here, because we can look at the bank of america chart, who challenges to the upside for the first time in january. we know what happened in march, it was svb and how that hangover has haunted the banks. i think there's an opportunity here and we haven't even talked about the fact that semis closed at an all-time high. the leadership of this market. so, you are getting -- you're getting the broadening of the market, you saw about equal weighed s and p outperform, but you still have the leadership of the big boys, and that's really important. i don't know, what do you do with banks >> when you get moves, you have

to cover them. the harder question is, we saw the curve actually quietly steepen today. that surprised me. i would have expected a flatter curve today. curve steeper, we know what we historically associate with that, with end of cycle dynamics, not new cycle dynamics i do think we have to just ask, what are the longer term implications of that, particularly on a day, and i was surprised by this, copper did nothing today. if i was looking for an area, particularly with the dollar down, i would have expected some response from copper, some response from crude, which we didn't get >> so does that mean that it's sort of a false rally perhaps? because we don't have the confirmation of the more cyclical areas >> i think the message the market gave us internally says, game on, play long, cover your shorts the question for 2024 is, does the steeper curve, buzz the lack of participation from things like copper and crude, is that a harbinger of something still out there, to be determined. >> right >> the bank thing, we were

talking about this -- >> this is what we do talk about in elevators >> very short. brief conversation longer than actually this one will be, which was, bank of america a huge outperform today, one because it's been really an underperformer, the metrics are very cheap relative to the other big banks, but the big problem we talk about, that held to maturity, because they have so much exposure to further out the curve, and that's improving. >> right >> in the last few weeks, that's been a big move. that's actually better -- lessens that bear case of the held to maturity being so bad. my exposure to jpm, that's where i want to be >> for more on today's data and the fed impact, let's turn to marcus andy. great to have you with us. you've been in the no recession soft landing camp for some time. how does this change your calculus in terms of what you see the fed doing, whether it be in terms of hikes, more hikes, and/or cuts next year?

>> well, i think this confirms that the rate hikes are over i don't see any reason why the fed would view this report any other way. it was just an absolutely positive report. you know, i don't think -- the bar is high for them to cut rates. i think they need to be absolutely sure that inflation's going to get back to their target before they do that, and that zandi forecast is correct i don't think that happens quickly, probably not until mid next year. and after that, i think they cut slowly but you know, a report like this does just cement, i think, t the -- that path they're headed on i think they should feel very good about the way things are going. >> mark, it's tim. i was not joking, but there is a sense out there, the people saying the fed had nothing to do with this, that this is just working through covid dynamics i don't think that's true. when the government gives away 25% of gdp, reeling in money supply, but having some of that

stuff run off -- you get the impact we've had was there anything today in those numbers, though, in that core, that structurally felt different about where we are in cpi, that's fed-impacted >> good point. i mean, i think most of the improvement in inflation goes to the fact that the pandemic and the effect of the russian war on energy and commodity prices, that's increasingly in the rear view mirror, and as a result, that's why inflation has come in and why, you know, the fed hasn't had to raise rates more and why the economy is going to be able to avoid recession having said that, they've had -- the rate hikes have had an impact job growth is slowing, wage growth is moderating, and that is having an imprudent on the inflation number so, on the list of reasons why inflation's coming in, i wouldn't put the fed at the top of the list, but it's definitely on the list for -- and it's helping get ininflation back into the bottle, without those fed rate hikes, i don't think we'd be where we are today

looking at these reports -- the reports, though, the thing that makes me feel particularly good, you saw new vehicle prices finally roll over, and i think that's the beginning of a trend here we're going to see new vehicle prices come in, as we get better production numbers come income from germany and japan, we should see more inventory. and then of course the key is the cost of housing services, as you pointed out, tim, that is moving in the right direction. and i expect that to continue over the next 6, 12 months everything feels like it's descript, but again, i wouldn't give the fed a lot of credit here, but they certainly deserve some >> if they only deserve some, that implies that the full impact of the rate hikes have not yet been felt. so, how do you think we'll see them and why do you think that won't tip us into a recession? >> melissa, i think we have seen the effects of the rate hikes. job growth is slowing, the labor market is easing, wage growth is moderating, you know, economy is -- you know, abstracting from

that third quarter number, which was gang busters for gdp, it does feel like the economy is kind of throttling back. unemployment is starting to move higher so, i do think -- we've seen the effects already. we've got more to come, but i think they'll be modest, and, you know, sufficient to get the economy where it needs to be to get inflation back in the bottle >> mark, it's karen. thanks for being on. let me just play devil's advocate for a minute. we have so many mortgage holders that have, you know, very low rates and those are starting to age. and they may be, you know, if they are 2000, they may really start to see those, and you usually shouldn't wait until the very end to roll over, so, i think that does seem to be like a lot of current cash flow that mortgage borrowers have that they won't have 18 months down the road >> well, i don't know, karen, i mean, the bulk of the mortgages were made back in 2020, 2021 and those are 30-year or maybe

15-year fixed rate, so it's going to take a long time b before, you know, those homeowners see rates adjust, and the only adjustment is if they move if they move, they don't -- there's no problem there whatsoever and here's the other thing you look at total household debt, all liabilities, the whole shoot and match, cards and consumer finance, mortgages, home equity, student loans, only 10% of that debt adjusts within one year of a change in market rates. you're right, i mean, over time, the rate effects will be felt, but that's over a long period of time, and i don't think it's going to do a lot of damage. >> mark, great to have you with us, as always. thank you. >> sure thing. >> mark zanid, moody's julie, i'll go back to the question we started the show off, and that is, this is an all-clear? because it sounds, at least according to mark, that we felt most of the effects of the rate hikes and the data's coming in better and things are looking pretty good. do you feel that same way or do you feel like we are in a window, a sweet spot right now before things really hit the

proverbial fan >> well, i think it's a question of, tell me what you think the job market's going to do, and i can tell you how the rest of the economy is going to go everyone who is out there spending and remember, the economy is 70% plus the consumer, everyone that has a job is happily spending their paychecks. it's been more towards services, we'll see if it goes more towards goods. but the minute people start losing their jobs, it's really -- that's what changes all the calculus for all of this because it doesn't just change whether or not people can pay for things, it changes consumer confidence and business confidence and they're willingness to invest. and so, as long as things remain positive in the job market, the thing is, it's really hard to architect a soft landing, it's really, really quite challenging. i'm encouraged by this cpi print, especially on the housing side i think it's even softer than is predicted in the cpi, if you look at the zillow rent index, it's much softer than what's in cpi, but it's a little early to call all-clear

>> karen, you were asking about the idea that people would have to refinance or do something with their mortgages >> yes >> so, is that a concern of yours? >> that -- for the consumer down the road it is, a little bit. i mean, i sort of, people have time to get ready for that, but maybe they don't maybe they just wait until the very, very end i guess, you know, mark -- i imagine that we're going to see more turnover, that's great, people have 30-year, but they don't really live -- very few make it to a 30-year mortgage, right? you have to move, death, right, more kids, whatever. >> wow kind of a downer >> what? >> kind of a downer, i mean -- >> well, you have more kids, you get a better job, you move great things happen. you need another mortgage. >> right >> and so, you're going to have less spending power if you are paying, you know, 400 basis points more, for sure. >> but i would push back a little bit on the housing rally today. the xhb moving 6% and going within 3% of all-time highs, really i don't think so

i don't think the housing market has that kind of strength. i realize the components of the xhb, things like home depot and, you know, housing companies, william sonoma, et is cetera, b think these are dynamics i think the housing market is going to con to weaken the consumer will not have the job they have today. and those are dynamics that aren't necessarily awful for the market in the here term, but i get why there was so much pressure from rates on the housing market, but i would be fading in that shb move. >> housing moved as if mortgage rates are going down -- >> yeah, come on >> as opposed to, you know, percentage, fractions of percent. >> i'm still struck by this view and a lot of the economists have it that the market's rallying here because the fed will be able to gradually bring rates down next year when in history has the fed been able to gradually bring rates down i would be more comfortable saying the market's rally, because the fed won't have to cut next year. predicated on the strength is that the economy hangs in there -- >> i like that >> and we're going to have to

use housing or consumer to make that judgment. meantime, one of our traders is pointing out ady verve jens in how small and large cap growth stocks have fared chris? >> this is really interesting. it's the exact opposite of what was playing out a year ago one year ago, if you go back to last fall, early last winter, you had growth versus value actually making new lows and it was making new lows among the large caps but it wasn't making new lows among the small caps the growth names in the small cap world began to turn up about a year ago fast forward to right now, it's the opposite you have the large cap growth as we know, dominate as it's been over the last number of months, cur curiously, small cap growth really hasn't worked here. small cap value has been dominant over small cap growth the last three, four months. i wonder what that message is? is the market hinting at us that we should dig into these value stocks and try to find some

areas that, in any broadening of the market, where we want to play so, i think there's a couple names here, probably worth talking about, industrials have been a favorite of ours, parker hannifin, a great example of something in the value index that's been neglected. this is a stock at new absolute highs and new relative highs very much a standout within industrials. paccar there's 20 analysts who cover it, only five buys on the name another stock that all year, despite the emphasis on growth, has exhibited leadership and if you want to stay with tech, look at ibm. this thing -- >> oh, come on, really is that what we have to do on a day like today ibm. >> this is coming out of a ten-year range it reminds me of microsoft 10, 12 years ago, when no one would consider microsoft on the long side another name the analysts hate, 23 analysts covered, four, five

buys look elsewhere if this is boardening out >> julie >> i like these names, especially ibm companies like ibm are going to benefit from a.i., they are trusted resource in terms of guiding enterprise companies into how to ado this, right if you have exposure for google for your a.i., this is an interesting one. and when it's so hated, you know, typically, there's just no more sellers left, right and those are the ones that can be a really nice opportunity >> karen, do you like either of these industrials? >> i don't know them so well, to be honest. i mean, my industrial heart is with uri, and that's been a decent place to be i do have a question, though, for either julie or chris. when you say small cap, in your view, is that 10 billion, what is that? >> it's funny. you would answer that question differently a handful of years ago. i think you are dealing with somewhere in the 5 to 15

neighborhood, which sounds absorb relative to ten years ago, but you are in that cap range. >> same for you, julie >> yeah, absolutely right. it's sort of, there's a lot of dispersion, where you have the microcaps, and then there's kind of this gap between, let's call it 1 and 5 and suddenly between 5 and 15, there's a lot more populous there so, it really depends on how you want to define it. my clients certainly like to give me a hard time about it. coming up, a massive run for meta shares have nearly tripled over the past year, but can the stock keep climbing the soscial ladde? plus, home depot shares surging. even as home improvement sales level off. we'll hammer into why investors are so constructive on the name when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money. meta's megamoves the social media giant has been on a tear over the last year at last november's lows, it was a sub-90 stock now, it is more than $336. nearly tripled in just over a year the stock is at its highest level since february 2022. at what point does it get

expensive? >> um -- it's more expensive for sure than it was, but i think that 89 is really -- it's a red herring. it never should have been there. it never should have been there. at that time, i think it was trading at 11, 12 times earnings so, now it's in the low 20s. slightly above a market multiple, which it seems that it should have above a market multiple $25 billion in cash, it's a cash machine. i mean, there's a lot to still like about it. it thought that last quarter was really good. the overreaction to the earnings last quarter was kind of ridiculous, they were giving conservative guidance in a world that was in somewhat of upheaval so, i still like it. i think all the things, the pillars that brought it here are still here it's harder now, it's a much bigger position. >> right >> it's a good problem to have >> it is i was going to say >> i sell upside calls and deal with a different problem >> right >> i remember getting it from $90 to $120 and thought i had a good trade, and here we are 200

bucks later on the stock this is a stock that's been above the 50-day moving average every single day since december 23rd of last year. if you are long, and you are trying to protect the position, so long as you are above the 50-day, you stale long until the facts change >> the dynamics around meta that allowed it to participate in the a.i. rally, i think, are real. the megacap tech companies that truly get the benefit of a.i., it's facebook. and, you talk about reels and you talk about core businesses that get them straight into the consumer, this is part of where they get past just being so tied to the ad revenue, or at least thosedynamics. i'm long meta. i think it goes higher i think the valuation is still somewhat defensive, and no question, you have people that are chasing this, and a lot of people are still under weight. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next home depot looking tough as nails after earnings but it wasn't home improvement sales that had investors building their stakes. the tools of that trade, next.

plus, the u.s./china relationship in focus, on the eve of president biden and xi's highly anticipated meeting what could come from that con fab, and how it could impact both economies you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of home depot topping the tape after posting better than expected earnings this morning the stock up 5.5%, its best day in over a year the company saw a fourth straight quarter of comp store sales and narrowed its forecast for the year

so, well, you know, i was on "squawk box" when the earnings crossed, talking to analysts, they say, eh, it was fine. it was enough. >> yes >> and then we get the cpi print and it's off to the races. >> it was more than enough it was fine. they narrowed the range. it was a little light on revenue. we knew that there was nothing that was really a surprise in there they're a good operator. it's been a tougher environment for sure all that goes out the window when you have, oh, my god, it's a really, we're going to have mortgage rates come way down and that will spur on the real estate market and obviously home depot's a beneficiary of all that that was probably 12 of the 15 1/2 points. the first 3 1/2 points were, okay, it was tune. we knew it wasn't going to be great. it did well enough >> and julie, we're looking ahead to target and walmart, which will be even bigger reads. as important as home depot may be, target and walmart will be even more so >> yeah, i think if you look at the categories that home depot is struggling and it's clear the

big ticket and discretionary is a real challenge for then. and the same story will be true for target and walmart we know that target, more discretionary mix is a real challenge for them i think going forward, they are really trying to figure out how to get their assortment so they still benefit from those higher margins, but they have a little bit more stability to their comp store sales. walmart, on the other hand, is just executing at a much higher level and they're better positioned, even if the economy is better than we think, i think they are still better positioned with their mix >> what chart looks better, chris? >> it's not even close i'm with julie on this one the walmart chart is fantastic look at home depot $300 stock it was a $300 stock a year ago, the year before that, the year before that. this thing has been stuck for three years. it made four-year relative performance lows versus the s&p 24 hours ago focus on good trends, home depot is not one of them walmart is play there >> how about lowe's versus home depot? we love these big pair trades, whether it's target/walmart, you

know, coke/pepsi, these guys seem to be in the same class lowe's trades cheap for a reason, again, the pro business has not been as good, but it's held serve, and almost makes me feel like based upon what you've also affirmed that maybe it goes -- it outperforms >> i'm not there and we probably disagree on that, i like the home builders here instead of the home improvement names. you had oversold positionpositii think that's a sign of a leader, and the home builders, if it was rates up or down, they acted like a leader. >> i love the way chris gets in my grill about my call that was the nicest way someone has said, i don't really -- i don't like your view at all. >> what's the answer to your own question >> so, i think that lowe's has traded at a discount for a long time, for a reason i think some of the benefits of pro at home depot are things that, look, the margin held up, that was part of the good news today. they talked about seeing some

weakness in big ticket items, they talked about things that should concern people. relative value, i'll take lowe's here. do not miss an exclusive interview with home depot's ceo, ted decker, monday, 1:00 p.m. eastern time, right here on cnbc. coming up, u.s./china relations in focus president biden meeting with xi jinping tomorrow what they hope to accomplish and how it could impact relations between the two countries. and sticking with the international trade, the emerging markets catching our traders' eyes. the countries to keep an eye on, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right afterhi ts.

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welcome back to "fast money. huge rally on wall street after this morning's soft inflation data the dow surging 500 points the s&p up 2% and nasdaq leading up 2.4%. a number of stocks trading at or near all-time highs. o'reilly auto, pulte and walmart hitting those levels during the session. and jamie dimon speaking in mexico this evening, saying inflation may not go away that

quickly. that the fed is right to pause in rate hikes right now, but that they may have to do, quote, a little bit more. meantime, the asia pacific economic cooperation summit kicks off today in san francisco. the summit coming at a time when american companies are struggling to define their relationship with china and ahead of a rare meeting between president biden and chinese president xi jinping tomorrow. eamon javers has the latest on what companies are hoping to accomplish this week >> melissa, president biden arrived in san francisco just about an hour ago, stepping off air force one and shaking hands with california governor gavin newsom and other state officials here we are expecting xi jinping to land very shortly. we haven't seen that arrival yet. the question for corporate executives watching all this, what, if anything, the leaders will be able to agree to, and the early betting is not much. maybe new language on climate change and fresh communications around a.i. negotiations are potentially on the table the two men won't see each other

until tomorrow at a location that still hasn't officially been confirmed to the public, but the city has been scrubbed and security zones have been erected in anticipation of their arrival. visitors to one local hotel were driven free copies of the beijing-based newspaper china daily this morning with the optimistic headline, "efforts to get ties on track pay dividends. and a picture of a smiling xi looming over the golden gate bridge by contrast in washington today, the u.s./china economic and security review found beijing continues to reject cooperation with the united states on fundamental questions of national security, economics, or trade. the commission took a down beat approach to the year's worth of diplomacy we've seen over the past 12 months or so, saying none of the flurry of visits and other diplomacy have resulted in any significant change of course by the regime. the most likely deliverable is one that could avoid an economically destructive

accidental confrontation between the two countries, that is the resumption of those direct military to military communications they were suspended back in 2022, when nancy pelosi went to taiwan that is seen as one of the most likely agreements that we could see between the two leaders tomorrow here, melissa >> all right, eamon, thank you eamon javers in san francisco. for more on what could come out of the summit, let's bring in shawn ryan great to have you with us. >> great to be here, melissa hopeful time in china there could be a mini detente of sorts. but the rheality is, i don't think there's going to be major great progress i expect that china and the united states will announce agreements on climate change, i think that you're going to see xi jinping is going to want to launch a charm offensive to the american business community. record numbers of american soybeans last week, even though they are more expensive than

brazilian ones i expect they're maybe going to come to a letter of intent to buy more boeing airplanes, which the chinese haven't bought for six years, in order to ice the americans. but i think the main thing, melissa, the two countries are talking again. when the heads of the two talki builds up confidence >> and shaun, we are just learning that president xi has touched down in san francisco, just in the past few minutes, so, he is in country at this point. when it comes to that charm offensive that you were talking about, shaun, what would be a win for president xi when he meets with the leader office various u.s. companies, like gm and tesla and citigroup, et cetera is he off more foreign direct investment and does he have to walk a tight rope, you know, in terms of courting these ceos, wanting their investment, but not looking like he's desperate? >> yeah, it's interesting. so, last week, when you read the chinese state media, they said, we're not sure that xi jinping

is actually going to meet with president biden. we want to make sure the americans are offering olive branches to the chinese, but this week, the rhetoric in the chinese media is totally changed, and they say that we're looking for good relations so, i think xi jinping has already shown the people of china that he is strong and he's not going to bow down to what the chinese consider to be bullying by the biden regime so, i think he's going to try to court fdi. i'm an american, but i've been in china for 27 years. this is the worst business confidence i've seen in the 2 1/2 decades that i've been here fdi dropped 8% this year so far. china right now, the economy is weak it's very weak and they need the ges, the citigroups, they need the american companies to keep investing in china i expect that american companies will come in and start investing in 2024, which is why i think numbers, gdp growth numbers will probably rise 5% next year and outperform a lot of

expectations i'm hearing from a lot of multinationals from american that they want to come back to china, they're worried about the political risk, not so much from the chinese side, but they're more worried from the biden side, they're worried that the americans are going to keep putting more sanctions so, hopefully with this meeting tomorrow, american companies will feel that they are given the go ahead by the biden regime to invest in china again >> again, if you are just joining us, you are looking live at san francisco, president xi of china has just touched down in san francisco for the ape c summit shaun, it's all about r risk/reward, and for many years, u.s. companies were willing to take the risk of the uncertainties of operating china for the reward of booming growth that promise of booming growth isn't necessarily there anymore. so, how much of it is, you know, diplomatic relations gone sour, and how much of it is just the chinese economy is languishing and the government there doesn't appear to want to throw it a

lifeline >> that's a great question, melissa. i think that the economy is bad, it's really bad right now, but it's not as bad as people think, which is why the government isn't launching a stimulus i've actually advised against launching a stimulus, because you don't want to get too much indebted in china like the united states has, and local governments have run out of money, because they spent so much money in 2022 on zero covid implementation i'm in my closet in my house in shanghai, i was locked down here for three months in 2022 local governments have run out of money that's why they're not launching a stimulus at the end of the day, china is still the world's largest retail market you're seeing numbers from lululemon, starbucks, nike, that are posting records. so, still a lot of profits to be made, but american companies need to be cautious. it's not the no-brainer investment like it has been for the previous 20 years. so, if you are in technology, if you are a company like intel, if you are a company like qualcomm,

it's probably going to be risky to invest in china right now, because of the geopolitical tension, but if you are a company in cosmetics, like an estee lauder, then china's still the great market to be investing in, and that's where investors should be looking, for the great consumer plays chinese consumers are nervous. they're cutting back on their spending, they're trading down, you know, they're buying products on the cheap on a super cheap version of an amazon and let's remember, they're sitting on $2.4 trillion of household savings. so, once the chinese consumer feels confident again, they are going to start to spend. i think that will happen in middle of next year. >> shaun, great to speak with you. thank you so much. broadcasting from his closet in shanghai it's a very nice closet. much nicer than mine mine would be very messy in terms of, you know, the types

of industries, the types of sectors, where china is still attractive, do you agree with shaun? >> well, i do, and i do think that luxury still continues to work he also in his notes talked about lorl 'oreal, you look at h i also think, if you didn't have some of the geopolitics, and that's a big if, the slowdown in the chinese economy, the cyclicality of it, some is structural, some is cyclical, you can't tell me starbucks is going to reverse field on those cap x and investment plans so, i just think even aslower chinese economy, that's not the deterrent to american corporations >> it was an interesting article today about 1 trillion yuan, i don't know what, stimulus, i guess it was, and shaun made it sound like that's absolutely not happening off the table. because i would really love to get that chinese traveler back, so, much of like an estee

lauder, any of those, is the traveler, as well. luxury buyer. coming up, the end of one big bearish bet leads to another. 0 fishily closing his position against the s&p 500, but there is one part of the market he thinks is due for some big losses we'll tell you where, next. plus, today's rally is going global we'll samba our way down to an emerging opportunity abroad. yes, that's a hint more "fast money" in two

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welcome back to "fast money. u.s. markets whes weren't the oy ones to rally today. the emerging market popping today. the brazil and mexico etf seeing bigger gains tim, you flagged these moves >> it -- some of it goes back to the dollar, some of it goes back to relief on rates is a great thing globally if you look at the dollar's weakness over the summer of '22, that's when you saw, whether it was emerging or even the em-50 start to outperform. i'm the research adviser on an international etf strategy that's dividend oriented and we have thebiggest weight in the

portfolio. you have a dynamic in brazil and mexico that's particularly well-suited to lower rates and better currencies. and you have some of the near-shoring dynamics. we just got done talking about china. that's actually really helpful to investing in brazil and mexico right now >> that was your thesis, near-shoring >> right near-shoring that's definitely part of it and there's sort of a slow industrial-ish revolution going on in mexico they have a really young work force. the average age there is 28 or so the only negative that would be a lot higher, if amlo had not done that -- the airport tariff that seemingly random, arbitrary thing. that's not a great thing i like the dynamics. we have breaking news here out of washington, d.c the house wrapping up its vote on a short-term spending bill to avoid a shutdown emily wilkins has the details. emily? >> melissa, it looks like the house is going to just be passing really just a number of

seconds here probably the bill that would keep the government funded past this friday's deadline, it would fund the government, at least part of it, until next year. january 19th for one part, february 2nd for the other and this is really a bipartisan effort a lot of democrats support this bill at the same time, you had a number of republicans say they couldn't back it, because there weren't conservative priorities in it. that could be a concern down the road for speaker mike johnson, but at this point, republicans who i've talked to say they still trust johnson, they understand that he was in a tight position, but of course, this makes the next funding battle more difficult, and it sets up the next funding battle for next a few months from now the senate still needs to pass this bill for it to be finalized, but senator chuck schumer said that he and senator mitch mcconnell will be working to bring it up in the senate quickly, and they believe that they can do so before the deadline of friday night >> all right, emily, thank you emily wilkins with the update there. no shutdown on friday. julie, is this the kind of thing, you think, where the

markets don't do anything and they would have only done something if we shut down? >> i mean, our country has the worst a.d.d. i've ever seen in my life. we are incapable of just getting it over the finish line. look, i think wealways kind of factor in this kind of dysfunction and, you know, some investors actually prefer it, because there's no regulation that gets passed that could impact business, but overall, i don't think it helps our standing in the world that we have this level of chaos and dysfunction. i'm thrilled something's getting done and there's a bipartisan effort, but yikes, this country. coming up, a new big short michael bury making a new bet against one red-shot area of th market more "fast money" in two

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welcome back to "fast money. big short investor michael burry betting one area of this market has come too far, too fast according to a securities filing, his firm opened a bearish options trade against the ishares semiconductor etf, up more than 46% this year the exact value of the position is unknown, but the notional value of the shares was $47

million at the end of the quarter. he closed out his previous put positions against the s&p and nasdaq, as both end sees closed out the third quarter lower. let's assume he's still in this position chris, what do you think >> i think, number one, we have to at least entertain the idea, this is a hedge against a long in the group let's not discount that entirely i think second, when you look at the semis, this is a really bifurcated group for as good as nvidia has been, for as good as avgo has been, there's also texas, qualcomm, and on semi, which look awful. it's hard to make a bet on semis. i think you can buy some here, but half the group is still in a downtrend. >> what is your hedge for nvidia >> some -- what were more out of the money calls that are getting closer to the money calls, and i might put on some before the 24th, i think -- >> 21st, i think >> around there. >> you know what's amazing i'm long intel and i'm not -- but it's up 44% year to date

and this is -- this stock is the one, all we talk about how is how they're not executing. that move in the smh, talked about all-time highs, it's 18% in ten days. i mean, certainly -- i agree it is overcooked here, but that leadership hasn't given out, and really since october 14th, 2022, that cpi low, when we had the record cpi, i think it's up over 60%. up next, final trades. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack!

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do not miss nikki haley on k skx skx, that's tomorrow, 7:30 a.m. eastern time on cnbc. time for the final trade julie? >> if you want exposure to health care, but you're nervous about everything that's kind of glp-oriented, azenta is a nice play, it's more in the genetics field. >> chris >> some value tech, ibm, up through 1 50 is a big breakout >> tim >> brazil's nu bank, fin tech name, and you just said numbers

today, good numbers. >> karen >> i don't love to buy things that are up, however, the iwm, coming off a multi-year low, if you take out the pandemic, so, i like it right here >> all right, thank you for watching "fast money." i'll see you tomorrow orn "squawk box," as well. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. money. i'll see on on "squawk box" as well mad money with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job not just entertain but put it in context. call me or tweet me at jim cramer ladies and gentlemen, please put your tra