it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here's your "five@5." stocks coming off their best day in month after cooling consumer price data we'll get a read on the producer side later today futures in the green this morning looking to build on yesterday's gains. global stocks following wall street's leads higher helped out by positive economic news from china as well as the uk. retail earnings remain front and center with target set to report in just over an hour we speak with one investor who's long on the stock. plus, getting set for the

biden/xi face-to-face at the apec summit later today. we lay out what's at stake. and big names that reveal their insider holdings including a new bearish bet from famed michael berry. it's wednesday, november 15th, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. i'm mike santoli in for frank holland. let's kick off the hour with a check on u.s. stock futures. pretty dramatic day yesterday. s&p 500 up almost 2% on the day. bond yields much lower that was after a cpi report came in cooler than expected, zero gain in consumer prices month to month. bonds rallied, stocked rallied recovered most but not all of the decline from july. you see this morning -- that was

yesterday let's move this morning you're seeing a little modest follow-through to the upside the dow had its third positive session in a row yesterday now, even bigger moves for the russell 2000 and the transports. these have been the hardest hit areas of the market, russell 2000 up more than 5%, its best performance since november of 2022 that was only -- a little over a year ago surging stocks matched only by a sharp drop in bond yields. that really was the catalyst for the entire move. the 10-year yield falling from about 460 down to 446. so under 4.5%. that also brings it back roughly to september levels. the rest of the curve following suit market effectively saying they believe the fed is done hiking rates. in energy, oil, pretty quiet as it has been for some time a big part of the inflation price was gas prices coming down wti down half a percent.

global markets following wall street's lead higher plus some positive economic news from china and the uk in the mix. julianna tatelbaum in our london news room with the news which also includes cooler inflation, julianna. >> mike, good morning. let's kick off with asia and then get to cooling inflation here in the uk it was a strong session overnight, the biggest mover to the upside, the hang seng in hong kong, gaining nearly 4% so really joining the wall street rally in a meaningful way. the nikkei 225 in japan also trading much higher, about 2.5% higher and then the nikkei, that's higher we're also continuing higher in europe after a strong surge yesterday. not quite the strength we saw stateside, but still a robust rally nevertheless this morning ftse 100 is

outperforming. we're up 75 basis points this come as sterling has fallen back versus the u.s. dollar. the uk inflation slowing sharply in october to 4.6% this is welcome news for the bank of england and also welcome news for the uk fast with prime minister rishi sunak coming in and saying at the beginning of his tenure that his goal was to have inflation by the end of the year with his print we have seen that come through it's going to be welcome news for him given the changes that have come to the uk over the last 48 hours or so. as for the macro picture, it seems to be a similar story as to what you saw in the u.s. yesterday. the inflation pressures beginning to cool and perhaps giving the bank of england some breathing room considering what the interpretation is of the fed. >> julianna, i appreciate that let's bring in our cnbc contributor and a rate

strategist at td securities. welcome to both of you good morning in terms of whether the market got it right yesterday in terms of buying treasuries, concluding that the fed has likely had its last rate hike as of july and, therefore, it's now the countdown to when they might be able to eat? >> i think they did. we've already not had a hike at the november and september meetings you know, september is not being priced anymore i document think the fed will tell us, but the rates tell you how much breathing room the fed does have in terms of not having to push rates higher you're seeing inflation slow down the question is growth going to follow suit and gradually whittle? we think soft landing is not going to play out as the market expects. >> how is it going to be different than what the market

expects? you think we're going to have a downturn in the economy eventually >> correct right now we're still calling for a second quarter recession next year. we do think things will slow down we're seeing it very marginally at the moment. certain will i no signs of recession yet. i think in the next three to six months you're going to see retail sales slow down and consumers start to fall off and company profits slip a little bit as well. that will set up a relatively smaller downturn more of your run-of-the-mill recession that basically forces the fed to come in and cut rates. >> got it. and, gina, in terms of how stocks took the news yesterday, now, clearly, we've been in about a three-month downturn, we've come off the lows after that 10% correction. but the economic sensitive parts of the market, the riskier areas have been hurt they bounced much more yesterday. what's your read on the reaction >> so i think that there are still some unpriced risks left

in the market, but, you know, i think that all else being equal, inflation should continue to cool, and that is the assumption that everything else rests on. if inflation continues to cool, the fed can continue to stay put, stand pat, and eventually that lack of inflation will be kind of a challenge for corporations remember that inflation is very good for corporations and corporate earnings benefitted greatly in terms of market expansion during that inflationary bout. that's going to start to go away markets are under pressure and we're seeing that. that should continue to go into the slowdown when you look at what's been blunting the effect and the reason we haven't really gone into a recession is that a lot of consumption has blunted that effect, and that consumption used to be covid stimulus, but it switched to credit card debt, and the credit card debt is getting more and more expensive.

that's more sustainable. that says the slowdown that a lot of economists have thrown the towel on, that technical recession, is probably still in the cards. >> no doubt about it, credit card debt has gone up, consumer balance sheets don't look as strong as they did is it not really normalizing to with where we would expect it to be absent some of the stimulus effects? it seems that we're not really at those extremes in terms of how stressed the consumer appears that we have typically i been right before a recession. >> yes, except that if you look at -- if you compare credit card balances to previous credit card balances, you're forgetting the fact that the previous credit card balances were at rates like 10% and 12% and now they're at rates like 20% and 23% that's a very big difference in terms of the actual cost of carry, right so that's taking a bigger bite out of consumption capability. >> gennadiy, in terms of the

implications for the bond market, we've obviously been dealing with the situation where nobody was sure why long-term yields were going up when they were from the summer there was obviously a component that it was stronger and the fed said it would keep rates higher longer and the treasury supply story. where does that leave us right now in terms of your expectations of where yields can go >> i think they're in a bit of a tug- tug-of-war, and i think that's going to be the theme for the next three to six months it's more supply and i think certainly more supply is coming and macrofundamentals. it eenl matters when times are good, when stocks are going up and investors have a choice of what they can buy. once the economy starts to turn, once you start to see the macro fundamentals start to shift lower, then you get a sense supply doesn't matter quite as much we're looking for more inflation havocs it doesn't matter quite as much.

you're going to start to get an jumt sometime in the next three to six months. right now supply doesn't matter. i don't think it will be a linear move in rates i think it's going to be quite choppy and the market is going to react, data is going to react to actions we'll still got long rates i think that trade's going to continue to, wo, but it's not going to go in a straight line. >> gina, it sounds like your preference would be to remain somewhat defensive and, you know, not necessarily buy into this idea that we can have this relief rally turn into something bigger if the soft landing, you know, is the expectation right now. how would you tactically look to position >> one of the things that we know is that when the market is complacent -- we think the market is complacent right now -- you can do downside protection on your portfolio because one of the things we also know is that stocks and bonds have been very correlated.

diversification has not helped we've seen stocks and 3w07b8ds go down together and up together you have to take a different tact to protecting your portfolio. there we think some well-placed options trading is where you really need to be right now because a lot of the pricing reflects a lot of the complacency that we're describing. >> all right, gina, gennadiy, thanks for starting it off with us this morning. now to a developing story on capitol hill where a government shutdown this weekend is looking less likely, the house passing a stopgap measure by a comfortable margin nbc's brie jackson joining us with more on the bill and how house speaker mike johnson got it across the finish line. brie. >> good morning, mike. it's not a done deal it needs to pass the senate before president biden can sign it into law. the plan does help congress avert a government shutdown at the end of the day on november 17th if it was move forward in the senate in a bipartisan vote on tusz,

the house passed speaker johnson's laddered aapproach to funding the government more democrats voted for the stopgap funding bill than republicans did. this was the first major test for the new house speaker mike johnson. the bill does not include spending cuts, nor does it include supplemental aid for israel or ukraine. it moves to the next-level mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer have said they will pass it and try to pass it quickly. it's expected to pass sometime this week which will set up the next showdown for next january mike >> a couple of months. brie, thanks so much. a lot more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. but first getting set for the biden/xi face-to-face at the apec sum it later today. we lay out what's at stake.

plus, the bull move for target and big names from michael bury still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier.

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significant problems between the world's two largest economies ma i have to wait cnbc's eamon javers has more on what to expect. good morning, mike air force one landed shore shortly before xi jinping's flight the two leaders didn't see each other on the runway, but they both saw a large number of demonstrators waving both american and chineseflags. skpee e xi jinping was greeted we janet yellen. this is being billed as a working meeting on the sidelines of the apec summit and there's a lot to discuss ranking from climate change to trade to artificial intelligence. it's clear that developments are being kept low the plan is to keep things from

getting worse. the most likely deliverable is one that could avoid an economically destructive situation between the two countries. the direction military-to-military communications were suspended after nancy pelosi visited taiwan in 2022 they could reopen the mill tissue-to-military talks after that back to you. >> let's talk more about what could come out of the meeting. joining me now is our next guest. it's great to have you this morning. i'm interested in the priorities of each leader here. when it comes to president xi, what is the message he would want to send domestically and i guess to the united states in not just having this meeting but making it seem as if there are sub tantive matters that are going to be processed. >> thank you very much, mike, for having me. you know, domestically i think

president xi jinping is facing a lot of challenges in terms of weak or rather disappointed economic recovery, so a very important mission for him is to try to send a signal that he has the capacity or at least he's trying very hard to stabilize a relationship with the united states so international confidence in the chinese economy. and then interactionally or more specifically in terms of u.s./china relations, i think china's xi jinping recognizes the cost it's very important to stabilize the relationship to avoid an accidental mistake and then finally, you know, there's an election coming up next year in taiwan. so so it's very important to xi

jinping. we're hearing talks perhaps on agreement on climate change initiatives, fentanyl tr, trade, things like that is that pormgt or just gestures? >> it's a very interesting way you put it, whether this would only be a gesture. i would say climate change is a very -- i would call it a low hanging fruit in termses of the us china relationship even when the relationship has been very tense, climate change and climate cooperation is one common ground that both chinese officials and u.s. officials have been talking about, right and in terms of fentanyl, i actually do not think a state to state agreement on fentanyl trafficking or manufacturing

would be effective it's very much profit-driven on top of that there's a market and fragmentation inside china you know, from this perspective, it could be a good gesture, but it's not necessarily going to solve the structural challenges in the u.s./china relationship. >> i mean those structural challenges president biden would certainly say and has said the united states does not have an interest in severely weakening china on an economic basis, but there is this competition, and a lot of the trade issues and technology issues are bound up in security concerns or at least they're said to be are those going to be somewhat off limits for this meeting? >> this is the part where, you know, president xi jinping as the top leader of the chinese political economic system is supposed to not necessarily be the person delivering a specific policy or specific priority

areas because a lot of the discussions have already been done between janet yellen and them a few days ago. so from that perspective, he's trying -- his primary job today is really to try to send the message that, you know, healthy competition is important, but it needs to be managed competition between the united states and china. and, finally, do you have a read on the chinese people, their current perspective on the relationship with the u.s. and what they would like to see from it >> you know, that's very interesting. a few days ago there is this report saying chinese people's sentiment to the united states has shifted compared with a year ago, in particular, you know, for those who consider the united states as an enemy has dramatically declined. you also see a send mental

change in chinese leading newspapers such as the people's daily, the stories about flying tiger has been brought back and president xi -- there are encouraging stories that president xi invited his old friend from iowa so from that perspective, we do see china and the chinese media has been projecting this strong political will to support this relationship recovering. >> well, reassuring as long as it dust last we appreciate the time this morning. thank you. ahead on "worldwide exchange," the city that ken griffin thinks could replace new york city at the finance capital of the world we'll be right back.

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let's get a check on sop of the top corporate stories. civil have that he now is here. >> sundar pichai defends google. during his nearly more than two-hour testimony yesterday, pichai defended his business practice of google playstore he added google gives apple 36% of safari's search revenue earned through advertising and continues to compete fiercely

with apple. cruise announcing it's suspended its all-supervised and manual operations of cars following a crash with a pedestrian last month. cruise, which is a units of generale motors says the suspension impacts around 70 vehicles across the country as it works to rebuild trust from the public and its customers. and new york city could be facing some fresh competition. speaking with "bloomberg news" at a global conference yesterday, citadel founder ken griffin says his new home of miami could eventually replace new york's position as the world's top financial hub in the next 50 years. griffin has made sizeable ebb vestments in the city since his move last year including a $1 billion tower set to serve citadel's headquarters and toe nations to hospitals and sports teams, mike. >> all right i remember a decade ago people were saying london was going to be it. >> right

now it's miami the palm trees are nice. >> maybe three months out of the year. >> exactly. >> we'll see. straight ahead, a shocking stack, courtesy of the magnificent seven that you have to see to believe. we'll lay it out next when "worldwide exchange" returns based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive. clinically shown to heal & moisturize dry, sensitive skin. gold bond.

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they hope the fed is done raising rates. and onto the senate, the house is hoping to avoid a government shutdown we're live in washington whether congress will get the deal to the desk joojd retail rolls on as target looks to snap a string of disappointing results it's wednesday, november 15th. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back i'm mike santoli in for frank holland this morning we pick up the half hour with a check on u.s. futures after yesterday's monster realing following a cooler than expected cpi report ahead of the open this morning, 50 s&p 500 companies are coming off their best day of the year including bank of america. blackrock, home depot, and

southwest. also watching the tech sector. it's set to open at an all-time high thanks in big part to the magnificent seven adding a combined $200 billion much to their market cap yesterday these are the even kpas that are worth more than 25% of the s&p altogether here's what they put on. checking the overseas action, markets in asia are also positive at the -- you know, following on the u.s. had some positive economic data out of china. hang seng up, shanghai trailing just a little bit here, and south korea up 2.3%. we'll take a look at europe as well europe also with a positive open there was some favorable cpi data in the uk it feeds into the idea after yesterday's cool cpi numbers in

the u.s. that central banks often ld the world perhaps have been done with their tightening campaigns. we'll see what the damage is ultimately on all the economies, but markets roughly celebrating across the board we check the bond market it was a big part of the market yesterday. 10-year yields going above the 2-year yield started yesterday above 5%, now at 4.85. that does follow the conclusion of the markets that the fed has likely done. in several months might even be cutting short-term interest rates. oil prices have largely been quiet for a while here, staying out of the way, i would argue. 77.80 on wti, $82 on brent, down half a percent on the morning. coen super spending remaining a key tale for the outlook on inflation and economy following yesterday's cooler than expected cpi report investors turning their attention to spending trends and the outlook to 2024.

here to break it town for us, the glenview trust company's bill stone on his expectations for target earnings. they're out in the next hour and mastercard's steve say dauf with the latest spending pulse snapshot bill, we'll start with you it's been a very tough run for target, following the o'big box competitors concerns estimates have been cut pretty severely what would you hope to see from target today >>. >> so i don't think the earnings in this quarter are going to be the remember you want to necessarily own target i'll tell you why you probably do, but you're probably going to see earnings down 4.5% year over year there are a lot of other headwinds and your other guests have probably talked about that, i would guess. about 50% of their spending comes from discretionary spending that's significantly higher than say a walmart. so they're kind of in the cross

hairs of what's going on with the consumer i would also say consumers moved out during the pandemic approach, you had a lot more spending i think that's been pushed out also consumers are looking for promotions which, again, hurts profits. all of that sounds pretty grim for being a shareholder. but you have to think in terms of longer term valuation significantly cheaper than say a walmart in fact, historically has been relatively widespread relative to history the second part what i gave you is kind of bad news around the 50% in discretionary spend is good news if the economy turns out to be better than many people expect and that's why i think when you look at how well target traded yesterday, i think a lot of that, again, is why did the market trade well? it's because all of a sudden people thought, wow, there's a better chance we have a soft

landing. i think that's the big story the future is the story, not today's earnings. >> target during the covid lockdown and then even beyond that, the stock doubled. it was given a lot of credit for making progress on the omnichannel initiatives, essentially allowing people to pick up in the store the stock has lost the entire gain, sort of done that round trip is it still -- was the market wrong to basically say that target had a better model and that, in fact, that could sustain it strategically for some time to come? >> i think they did meet a lot it's still a good thing. i just think it clearly doesn't deserve the multiples of, say, a walmart, i don't believe, but, again, it's irrelative in terms of does it deserve better than what it's getting today, and we argue, yes, it does. it's a brand people like to shop at that's the value you know, i would say retail in general, as you know, is very difficult. you're going up against the real

tough ones, which is walmart and amazon target has a lot that's in the sights of amazon, but they've done a good job. they've got the ulta partnership. if you focus one-on-one thing that's going very well with target, it would be the beauty side of things while the discretionary had a tougher run. >> just quickly, do you think target ought to change the mix to more everyday grocery-type things >> that's a tough call because you're going up against -- there's some benefit to being slightly different from walmart. they're a monster to compete against, so there is that -- the nice part about target, having their own brands that people come in to spend for, and you get the leverage on the way up as the economy is doing well i'm not sure that's the solution either. >> we'll see what they deliver in just several minutes, bill. appreciate the time this morning. bill stone. a big part of target's

product mixes apparel and accessories, online sales grew by more than 8% in october driven by strength in online apparel. joining me now is steve say dauf, senior adviser at mastercard how do things look in october? there's a perception that october was soft across the board. >> you know, i think the reality is that the consumer was spending in october and they have been spending throughout the course of the year there were people thinking it with us go ing to fall apart and it hasn't. numbers have come down largely because inflation has come down so much. if you looked at the beginning of the year, you saw inflation at let's call it 7%, 8 p%, and you saw overall retail sales at 7%, 8%

now you're seeing positive retail sales and inflation in that 2%, 3% range. the expectation for the holiday season is about 3.7% in overall growth and if you saw the inflation report yesterday, you're seeing it's go ing to be growing a bit above the inflation rate digital is growing a bit faster than the overall store retail sales. that's a reversion to where it used to be prepandemic during the pandemic, you had a little bit of an anomaly across all of the categories. the digital blew up and then came back down and now you're seeing digital outperform the stores again i would expect to see digital have a strong season the month of october you had a lot of early promotions. you had 3r50i78 day kicking off the season with more of a focus on the digital side than you did on the store side. the november time frame is going to be a big, big focus on the

st stores, and as your prior guest said this is a value promotionally-yore continentaled season i wouldn't think it's more so than in normal times you had the dislocation of supply chains a year ago where you had very deep promotions i suspect it's going to be more normalized but very heavy. you'll have a peak holiday season you see sales breaks taking place right now. you'll probably see a lull after thanksgiving and a big push just before christmas but if you put it all together, i actually view this as bit of a reversion to the norm and you're seeing it by categories. you saw homeware, which had a massive gain during the early pandemic it slowed down restaurants continue to do well because you're in that experimental mode. >> you mentioned a holiday

season growth. you have it slightly slower, a thanksgiving to christmas stretch this year than we often have goods inflation was actually close to negative, right so it's all services that are creating the -- what inflation we have for the most part. how does that set retailers up it seems to me that adds to the pressure. >> if you look at inflation, you're right you've got to look at it on a category by category basis with food inflation, for example, a bit higher than some of the other categories, and that's why i think you're seeing a bit higher growth in a restaurant. as an example, part of it is because of the higher inflation rate you're seeing in the category i think the unit volume growth is ultimately -- you want to be looking at that as well. i would expect to see categories like apparel, you know, having some inflationary pressure, especially because you see the

discounting that goes on during the holiday period but this is all expected and you're seeing it on a year-on-year basis even though the trends -- you're going to see a little lower inflation, it's a year on year is what you're most interested in, and i'm expecting to see a relatively healthy performance coming out of the next several months, and the inflation numbers yesterday indicate that there's a little bit of consumer sentiment that's going to be buoyed, and that should be good for the consumer. >> gas prices down and all the rest steve sadove, thank you very much. >> appreciate it. turning to a story in washington the house trying to avoid a government shutdown. ellie wilkins joins us with more emily, where does this take us next >> mike, it takes us right over to the senate. they're the ones that are going to have to move this house package to avoid a government shutdown this, of course, comes after the

house did pass that bill yesterday afternoon. it had really strong bipartisan support. remember, this is a ready unique package. it would extend part of the government until january 19th and the other part until february 2nd this dual track is something that will help lawmakers complete their work, but senators aren't huge fans of it. even so senate majority leader chuck schumer said yesterday, the overall bill doesn't have any conservative priorities, it's going to stop a shutdown and something they can live with. >> i'm heartened, cautiously so, that speaker johnson is moving forward with a c.r. that precisely omits the sort of hard right cuts that would have been non-starters for democrats senate leader mcconnell and i will figure out the best way to get this done quickly. >> republican leader mitch mcconnell has also supported the house bill, but not all republicans are on board in the house vote yesterday, 93

republicans voted against the bill over concerns that it doesn't have items like border security or spending cuts. those same issues could crop up in the senate. remember, over in that chamber, any one member can delay getting legislation passed senator rand paul of kentucky who has stalled some of these spending bills in the past told reporters he's not sure if he'll delay the package of the current bill, but he wants to see curbed spending which it does not do as of yet with only three days left, there's not much time. the senate wants to pass it. it's just a matter of process. just a note, we could go into a shutdown, but obviously the shutdown would begin saturday at midnight and if congress can resolve it over the weekend, the impact would be minimal into the economy and the work force. >> a bit of a e rew leaf you mentioned the package does not have any of those conservative priorities. is it basically a cut and paste

in terms of current spending levels, and so whatever fight there is on a lot of those spending items is just deferred for a couple of months >> that's basically it, mike this is something where a lot of republicans roy still want to see spending cuts, but they're going to push that battle down the road, looking at that sort of mid-january deadline. of course, there's no guarantee we're not going to be here come mid-january. the house and senate have both passed a number of the spending bills, but they're nowhere close to something that could get through both chambers and it's going to be a lot of work to do in the next month and a half and there's a real question whether or not we're going to see some of these long-term bills wind up on biden's desk and being enacted. >> emily, i appreciate you walking us through it all. thanks very much. coming up, digging into some of the moves by some of wall street's biggest names the likes of wrearn buffett and

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time now for your big money movers starting with warren buffett's berkshire hathaway, selling out to general motors, proctor & gamble and chevron and others.

his top ones remain apple, american express, coca-cola, and chevron. m michael burry made new bearish bets offering puts against the i-shares semiconductors as of september 30th meanwhile notable moves disclosing new stakes in ipos including instacart and exit in nvidia and others. just ahead, the one word investors need to know today. and apparel making and the partnership she says could naenm tt re momtuinha me we'll be right back. closer than the average mother daughter. hi mom! if i lost my mom.... i can't think about that for too long. i was like, "whoa, mom, i have this gene!"

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exchange." time now for your w.e.x. wrap up jd competes with rivals like alibaba. retail sales in china growing by more than 7.5% in october, topping expectations industrial production also beating estimates, up 4.5% the uk following the u.s.'s lead following a steep drop to inflation in october that's the lowest level there in two years. gm's cruise suspending all supervised and manual car trips in the u.s. and suspending its trips following a crash last month. and alphabet's sundar picha pushing back on maintaining

dominance in the global marketplace. we've got economic data including weekly mortgage applications and retail sales. also watching for earnings from target, tjx, and cisco systems also tracking the apec summit in san francisco as ceos and other business leaders meet with other top political leaders today. and speaking of ceos, be sure to catch a cnbc's exclusive with microsoft's satya nadella ahead of the ignite conference this week. that's at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. a busy day ahead let's see how futures are rallying the s&p up the russell up a very broad rally yesterday s&p looking to add on about a third of a percent dow jones up 100 at the moment for more on the tradesing day ahead, let's bring in tiffany mcghee, ceo and cio of pivotal adviser and she's a cnbc

contributor. good morning yesterday was pretty much an all-in rally obviously a lot of parts of the market were pretty depressed coming into it 90% of all volume to the upside. it brings me to your word of the day because i have a feeling it's not about, you know, just throw a dart and buy whatever you hit. >> it isn't. so my word of the day is "selective." we watched the rally yesterday and how the s&p 500 in particular has performed since the start of the fed -- hiking cycle. when you strip out the tech growth stocks, when you strip out tech, the s&p 500 since march 16th really has been down about 4%, right, with the medium stock being down 5%. so kind of considering that and considering the fact we're most

likely at the end of the tightening cycle, we really believe there are opportunities for outperformance but you have to be selective. >> i know you mean from march of 2022 when the fed started to tighten up. >> i'm sorry, 2022, yes. >> i got you that was clear now, if the fed, in fact, has finished tightening as the market seems to be believing right now as of july, typically from the end of the tykening psych toll the first cut, the s&p tends to be up by 10% or so. we're still down from that july high i guess the point is there catch-up to do and in what types of stocks? >> there is catch-up to do, right? so heading into the holiday season, of course, like some of the names we're -- some of the areas we're looking at is retail, right. so retail, november and december for some companiesies tends to

really, really positive. and the cpi report releasing, look at gas prices they're 5% down. gas is like a tax to the consumer, so kind of heading into holiday season, we hope they're going to get a little bit of relief and so it's going to be interesting when that october retail sales report comes out to see if those lower gas prices made a bit of a difference in october, maybe a precursor for november, december. >> i do want to get to your particular favorite stock in that area. it's not one that really has been beaten down with many of the others. >> it isn't, right so what makes my holiday nice list today is lulu, right? by the way, what we're looking for is a mix of quality growth, quality stocks, strong balance sheets, higher margin companies, and we very much pay attention to business models, so lulu announced just about a month and a half ago their partnership with peloton

it's go ing to drive their cost savings down they're getting rid of the mirror it allows it to kind of exit that content creation space because they're going to be relying on peloton to do a lot of that. they have a lot of cross-selling opportunities as peloton's apparel partner, which is going to really add some additional revenue. i've been waiting for this partnership for years. i think they should have done it a lot earlier. i'm not sure if it's going to be enough to save peloton, but i think it's going to do tons for lulu for their bottom line also they've got higher gross margins f last month was 58, almost 59% in q2 strong q year-over-year growth 52% international growth and even 61% growth in china last month. >> they've been winning this space for sure tiffany mcghee, really appreciate it. have a good day. and "squawk box" is coming up next

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good morning, speaker mike johnson's plan to avoid a government shutdown did pass yesterday. a big total of yays, relying heavily on democratic votes. we'll take you live to washington. retail markets, we'll take you live in the next half hour. and markets jumped after the soft consumer price numbers and today we'll get a look at producer numbers

today, it's wednesday, november 15th -- that seems odd it is the 15th "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market square in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee. becky is on assignment we've got three hours of lots and lots of news making. we've got nikki haley. >> she's here. >> not yet, but she will be here. >> don't adjust your set. looking at the green s&p 500 up about 17 points this coming after stocks rallied yesterday in a big way after wall street cheered that soft inflation da