spending when it comes to co-pilots, and a shift from gna, general administrative spending from companies, towards these a.i. possibilities we'll see if it happens. >> yeah, and of course, microsoft hitting another all-time high today. jon, hurry home, safe travels. great work today >> looking forward to sitting next to you tomorrow >> me, too that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight hitting the bulls eye. shares of target seeing their best gain in over four years after blowing past expectations for the latest quarter has the retailer really put all its troubles behind it plus, high stakes summit president biddenen and xi meeti in the bay area. what could come out of that meeting and what it might mean for doing business with china? and later, a stock named lilly or know have to that is benefitting from the weight loss

drug boom, and two tech names. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, won that win eison and mike khouw. we start with target's monster move jumping 18% after a massive third earnings beat. 22 cents above street estimates. but the pressure on revenue still notable, target's comp sales dropping again, this time, by 5%. the company giving another warning about deal hungry shoppers and weaker discretionary spending even with today's pop, target shares getting crushed this year the big box retailer is down 13% since january. so, is it all clear for target do we see an inflection point? karen, you woke up this morning, peeking out from under the covers, you're like, what's going to happen? >> i know. very nervous very nervous and then very, very relieved i think that's -- there's a lot of relief rally in this. the same-store sales were down

they weren't down as much as we thought. they seemed to get a handle on things that had been troubling in the past. envinner to, that was one. so, that really came down, that was nice their margins were better than expected that also was anything shrink, which they had a significant problem, that was better than expected it felt like, okay, we got our mojo back, we're on top of things now the guidance for the fourth quarter was wide, that's okay, you know, i never think they should have guidance anyway, but the street makes them. so, i think that the idea of, we don't know what multiple to give this, because we don't know if they have a handle on the business, i hope that is in the rear view mirror now and so, even with this move, this is not crazy expensive at all. it was really, really nice to see. also, you know, we'll see walmart tomorrow, i think it bodes well for walmart, but was happy with that giant pop today. and it really, i mean, the multiple they got on that 22-cent beat, whatever it was,

$18, $19, that's enormous so, i think -- i think the worst is behind us >> yeah, it was a nice move out of walmart/target spread today but this, just, i think, you framed it the right way, because this isn't a tell on the consumer this is a tell on target you experience some affordable joy, that's their slogan, i think. and i agree, the dynamics here around, first of all, the comps on shrink and theft were better. the net profitability of the business is really interesting they do seem like they've gotten a lot of the elements of the bigger problems out of the way i think you just get to a place also on sales, if you look at a 12-month price to sales were down to kind of 0.5, which is where it was on a pre-covid level, before it went into that massive gross period they talked about their segments that are doing better. beauty was up, high single digits we know kind of what's been

going on with the rest of the discretionary profile. i just think it's about a company that's being run better, and frankly, i think sentiment just got so awful, that this was the kind of report that obviously could deliver an outsized move to the upside. >> in terms of margins, a lot of analysts pointing out the progress we've seen, lower freight costs, lower fulfillment costs really helping there >> and to that margin story, the fact they got their inventories under control, total margins were down 11%, but that particular segment was down 19 that speaks to the promotional activity that's likely to happen for the next quarter, and perhaps the quarter ahead. so, in terms of margin and being able to defend those margins, the fact they've gotten the inventory story under control bodes well as for as whether or not it's a turning point, as you know, harvard whiz, that doesn't mean that it's a kwa dratic equation -- >> has anyone ever gone kwa

dradic on this show? >> first >> might just flatten and continue to sell off but i do think, to tim's point, the spread between walmart and target, which is about ten turns, is still compelling here. >> mike, what was your take here >> yeah, i mean, we own both walmart and target, and obviously, a lot of the things everybody was just talking about are positives. some of the things that were pressuring target, they had some political pressure, obviously, there was a little bit of boycott flak earlier this year, that was a little bit problematic, and it seems like there's a little bit of that buzz following it around but that kind of thing is going to pass, i believe, and so, i think that helps sort of price that discount in, and, you know, it was very cheap two days ago, not quite as cheap now, but it's still cheaper than it usually is, cheaper than the market and well cheaper than walmart, as bonawyn just pointed out, so, i think you can still continue to own it here, and, you know, i don't think there's a huge risk that it's going to retrace back to those levels that we saw at -- a week ago

>> can he extrapolate in terms of what this could mean for a macy's, which saw -- karen, we talked about this, macy's up 7%, dollar stores. the parts of retail that were not left for dead, but really people were sort of giving up home because of the consumer, the pressure on the consumer, they found some life today on the back of target earnings. >> they found some life, but we were talking before the show, so, the pe multiple went from, i don't know, four, a little under four, imagine if it were, like, seven. i mean, that, you know, so much upside here. macy's has really gotten their act together was that to meor to mike and i -- so, i -- the balance sheet has been cleaned up. i don't own it, but it is sort of interesting that cheap, and it's not a disagser aster, that's interesting. >> yeah, i -- i think it was a case where, again, the expectations were so low here, i mean, it's just hard to, you know, i mean, i look at the story here, though, overall, i don't think the consumer is

necessarily in a better place. when i hear that ckohl's, when they get a three-day, 25% move off of some other stuff in a market that doesn't really impress me i think we have dynamics with the consumer that are really the bigger tell. the bottom line is, the guide for the fourth quarter is still to be, you know, down kind of mid 5%, in terms of same-store sales comps. tjx, which has been a darling, reported decent numbers, they beat, and yet the guide was nothing that special and a place where on valuation this is a company that now looks kind of relative to peepeers expensive. >> your take on tjx? >> this one, you might want to look at buying a pull-back i thought their quarter was relatively strong. and they didn't kitchen sink the guidance it was just a bit conservative it was still in line, you know, probably like the bottom part of what their guidance was. i didn't think they said anything or did anything that would have given me the impulse to go out and sell, so, in fact, i think if we start to roll

over, that's probably one of the names, trade down, complex, that i might look to add. >> walmart coming up tomorrow morning. mike, if walmart has guided, you know, decent, isn't this a tell? when does it become a tell on the consumer at what point? how many data points do we need? target plus walmart seems like a pretty good tell on the consumer >> so, it's interesting you point that out what is a tell on the consumer it depends on the consumer walmart and target are going to be appealing to similar consumers. tjx and macy's are a different kind of a story. macy's, if one was inclined to pay it, it has so much leverage on the balance sheet if you are trying to, you know, play it as a trade, to the upside, i could see why you might do that, but i don't know necessarily that, you know, there you really have to worry about whether or not they get their product mix the right way. and in walmart's case, with things like grocery, is grocery about strength of the consumer, the cheap, you know, products

like cleaning stuff, is that really a tell on the consumer? they are going to buy those things anyway. and the extent you have other products, like electronics and things like that, if they're going to shop for them right now, those kind of bigger purchases they are more likely to buy them from a place like walmart. we own walmart and target, too, so, we didn't really have it on a pairs trade. we own tjx, as well. i think the consumer, on the discretionary side, the big purchases, that's still going to be under a lot of pressure >> one of the things that we have to go back to the cpi, it's not great for walmart. if you think about cpi, 2.1 for food and home, up 5.4 for restaurants. restaurants are doing better i think that the food inflation story, it was so last year, and i think there's no question that walmart does better in that environment. there's no question walmart beats on price, it gets people into the stores, but as soon that's long walmart, not as long as i was and slowly been -- i would say trading out of the position, i think it's such a good story, it's been such a good story, but i think the

bar's very high for tomorrow's numbers. >> if the guidance is decent for the holiday quarter, why aren't we willing to say that the consumer is doing okay, target plus walmart you're getting deciiscretionary plus nondiscretionary. >> well, go back to tjx. they chose conservative guidance this is an underpromise and overdeliver kind of management team, which is what you want and walmart is not in the business of trying to hike, for sure they don't really like giving guidance but i think the stocks could have been so oversold that even if the consumer isn't in the best shape, they were discounting a consumer who is just stopping spending dead in the water. i think the pendulum always swings way too far and i think that's what happened here. >> all right our next guest came in on the start of the month with a bold call that it was time to buy all assets that was after the treasury announced it would slow the pace of bond auctions since then, stocks and bonds

have been on a red hot run today, andy constand is back with a new call. this time, he is saying sell all assets andy is the ceo and cio. good to have you back. >> hey, melissa. >> you're in cash now? that's what your portfolio looks like >> so, what i've done is, i have two portfolios, a beta portfolio, which is a long-term passive long assets portfolio. i raised about 30% cash, so, now i'm only about 70% invested. and for my alpha portfolio, market timing multimonth horizon portfolio, i went short assets fairly aggressively. >> what's the next move, do you think? le what gets you off the sideline >> i think you have to recognize this treasury surprise that we talked about on halloween, or the day after, you know, really created a big move in assets s&p up 8%, nasdaq up 10%,

ten-year and 30-year bond yields fell 50 basis points, the tlt went up 7% you know, those are huge moves, and what i would say is is that, you know, i make an estimation of what this reduction in supply had, and it's really overshot in a significant way, so, the -- we have limited -- we've had limited data in the last few weeks, there's been fed speak, there's been the presser from powell, and there's been some, you know, data that has been consistent with what we've known for a long time, that the economy is slowing, inflation is falling towards target and, you know, that's really the only thing that's changed since the -- the qra on 11/1 and so, to me, the market has just significantly overshot, which means that once again, the

impact of higher -- of higher long-term rates which the fed has been championing for the -- to make their job easier is no longer there and so, that makes me worry that the fed is going to have to, once again, stay at current rates or even hike, over the next couple of meetings. and -- however, and i think this is important, though the supply was less than expected, it's still huge we have $350 billion of bonds to be absorbed in the first quarter, and we saw the auction on thursday of the 30-year, which was the worst auction in a long, long time. and i don't know for sure whether this supply is going to get absorbed well, even though it's less than expected. so, i'm fairly bearish on bonds. i would expect long-term bond yields to rise and that will

take the bid out of equities >> andy, it's karen. excellent call, both ways. so, i know -- i read your stuff and i know you think we're back to the beginning of where we were, late july, early august, we're going to see another qra number that is very high, and we'll be back to this same thing again. is that what -- would that be the sort of catalyst, if we do get that number and a big selloff then, for you to maybe reverse course or no >> yeah, so, i mean, i think that's a long way off. our next qra is january 31st we have a lot of economic data, we have year-end, the beginnings of earning season and two fed mee meetings there are a lot of things that could cause markets to go up or down i think it will go down because of the supply overhang and then come january, we're likely to see a significantly greater supply, and that should push us back down, yields back

up to 5.25, 5.5, and equities will struggle to stay above 4,000 in that environment. and so, yes, that's the answer it would be, if we do see such a move in markets, that's when i'd get back into assets and out of cash and cover shorts >> andy, but -- if i hear you right, the market, which, in the last few days, has certainly done to fed funds also a lot, right? so, you've put maybe, you know, four hikes into next year. kind of reiterate, your view is, no way fed is near this? and we know fed funds doesn't have to be in line with dot plots, et cetera but is the market overreacted there? >> yeah, i mean, i think that's true we -- two years did sell off a lot today, but certainly since and we're back to where they were 15 days ago but after the cpi number, four cuts got priced in, and i guess the big point i'm trying to make is that if long-term assets, including bonds and stocks, are

easy, financial conditions are easy, the fed has no choice but to keep the front end as tight as they can, which will be either a long pause, where you get no cuts at all, or even hikes, if the economics, numbers start warming up, as the financial candidates start, you know, start moving through the market and through the economy, given how easy they've become all of a sudden. >> andy, thank you always great to get your take. and to hear about your calls andy constan from damenedpened springs. financial conditions start to ease, we're back at the point where the fed has to put possibly -- hike rates this is -- sounds like we're going to be bouncing around here >> yeah, i mean, i -- first of all, i think his call to get long was absolutely spot-on. i talked to a lot of smart money

people who they lamented the fact they had gone to cash so much with that said, i -- i just don't see the hikes in the inflation data now -- i'm not sure that market conditions are necessarily going to move the fed to do that with that said, if you start to see a tick back up in retail spending and inflation and things of that nature, i can certainly see how it's a probable outcome, but you're seeing more volatility four rate cuts priced into next year, i think that is extremely premature, and it flies in the face of what the fed is saying, higher for longer. >> nothing in the data, and the economic data needs to be clear, disinflation have very different than an economy that's hitting a wall i do think that the consumer is running out of gas, i do think that the joblessness will move up to 5%, but the economy we have right now is still quite strong there's little in this for the fed. it's a great environment for equities that's an environment. that's an environment where, today you kind of started to sort through and have the normalcy of, if equities are up

a little bit, bonds should be down a little bit. that's how it goes this is the equities and stocks have been moving in the same direction the trend for bond yields, has been higher, arguably at the short end of the curve, i realize covid and even the fed getting very scared at the end of december 2018 was a reversal. but rates have been going higher since 2013 i think rates are not going a lot lower. i think they are going to continue to start higher this is after decades of a bull market in bonds. >> so, just one other thing. we talk about the market is not a monolith, right? so, you have the really high flyer names, high multiple names, i think we could very well see those start to, you know, come back to earth a little bit and then you have, we talked about the -- iwm, yesterday, the russell 2,000, of names that have just been shellacked, and those could do well in the same environment, where the other ones don't >> right. after the break, some earnings alerts coming your way. a big moves out of cisco and

palo alto in the afterhours session. the numbers from the quarters next. disney shares are at six-month highs. the investor that is sending shares higher today and what parts of the business are in focus right now. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back itwn o. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. a big moves out of cisco and don't go anywhere. e cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well.

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we've got a news alert on the senate vote on the government spending bill, emily wilkins has the details. emily? >> well, melissa, we're going to be just seeing in a little bit, the senate is going to be voting on that stop gap measure that is going to avert a shutdown this friday and take the federal funding through, part of that is going to be that dual track part is going to be funded through january 19th, part through february 2nd the senate was able to work it out. this is a bipartisan bill. doesn't have a lot of conservative priorities, just kind of funds the government as it is and it gives lawmakers more time to work through actually funding the government. so, after this, it's really going to be going to joe biden's desk, he's going to sign it, and we're going to see that shutdown averted, but it's going to then kick the can down the road, and we could have some potential major headaches next year in january. >> that road is not too long

i mean, the can doesn't have much to travel emily, thank you emily wilkins. it's like -- halloween, then thanksgiving comes so quickly and it's going to be shutdown time again but not to be pessimistic about the process. let's get to earnings alerts for you. check out shares of palo alto networks and cisco cisco beating on the top and bottom lines, but shares getting crushed on cuts. let's get to kristina partsinevelos with more. >> supply chain constraints has shifted downstream to, quote, the implementation stage customers are just taking time to onboard, which is driving cisco's weak guidance. and analysts actually challenged that statement, asking if this is a problem with demand, not un inventory. q-2 and full-year outlook were light. the midpoint of full year revenue range was over -- i should say, over $3 billion less

than street estimates. the ceo said they saw weakness, quote, mostly from larger enterprise service providers and cloud customers. but that they believe this phase is, quote, temporary, and see a return to order growth in the second half of this year on a.i., artificial intelligence, management said they already took $500 million in infrastructure to support a.i. networks and have a line of sight of a billion dollars of orders and, quote, better teams feel pretty good they're going to get. us coe reiterating a $20 billion acquisition of splunk, which is still expected to close in q-3 of 2024. shares, though, still reacting to that negative guidance and concerns about product growth. mel? >> is there a time period associated with that $1 billion in orders for a.i. >> i double checked, and all he said, we see a $1 billion pipeline our teams are confidence we're going to get it. that was it. >> okay. kristina, thank you kristina partsinevelos.

tim, you are a shareholder >> i have a position in cisco, and as you pointed out to a man who knows a lot about options and the lady next to me who does this sometimes, and not trying to implicate karen with my sellingup side calls is nowhere as good as buying puts, though they kind of are the same. in the case of cisco, what i liked about the company going into these numbers is that their business was not only strong in their core, but they were -- they were certainly -- they've been making this move into soft ware, and cyber, and these are high margin businesses they've been doing a great job the valuation at around 14 times, not expensive but what i also heard the company say is that their networking business is really slowing down and that's in con trags to what we heard from juniper and what we heard from arista relative to peers, that's why this reaction, i think, is what it is. they also said they have one to two quarters of shipped products already that have yet to be implemented. that sounds like a company that's not going to see a lot of demand any time soon

so, i believe this is an overreaction there was nothing rosy about this outlook, though, and it's getting destroyed. >> yeah. mike khouw >> yeah, i mean, this is a tough one, because, you know, as tim was just pointing out, this wasn't a terribly expensive company going into it, or so it would seem you know, also interesting, he was just talking about the options market the options market wasn't expecting a whole lot. this is a stock that moves 5%, 5.5% the options market was implying a move of less than that, so, you know, i think these are the situations where you really need to be aware. if you start seeing some of this complacency, if it's priced into options or the stock, i mean, what's interesting is that it seems to me that even mildly disappointing news, and maybe this case, this is somewhat more than mildly disappoint ing, you have to watch that, because the stock is getting punish ed badly >> somebody with a bearish view of the world might say, this is the slowdown in enterprise spending that we were all

waiting for. and we usually -- in the past, we had heard it from cisco systems. >> yeah. >> once upon a time. >> this was the company, you know, we listen to john chambers with baited breath, we sat on the edge of our seat to every word he said that was 15 years ago. but i -- look, it's not a great tell on enterprise i don't think it's really the dark cloud it would have been. palo alto meatingseeing shak on weak guidance on billings pippa stevens has more on that >> it really was that disappointing billing guidance that is sending the stock tumbling the ceo addressing it, saying just now, the street might be, quote, confused about the billings guidance. noting the variability is due to payment conversations they're having with customers. management said that during q-1, the cost of money remanes a constant discussion, and that significant focus on the topic is becoming the new norm am. adding that they're now seeing more of that variability in billings than before, because of

the financing mix and contract duration, but they emphasize that this is not impacting revenue. they said they see strong rpo and low churn, arguing that the billings guidance is a, quote, cosmetic impact. overall, management said the pace of malicious activity is fueling a strong demand environment, but clearly, the street not loving this report. back to you. >> yeah. pippa, thank you pippa stevens. when i hear focus on costs of money, i think of rates, when i think of the financing, the cost to finance whatever purchases, bonawyn. these are all things -- if you believe in higher for longer, than this is the new reality >> yeah, you hit the nail on the head with the rate story this is one of those high flyers that justified the multiple because everything cyber security related seemed to justify it when up get a hiccup, you're really going to see it it surprises me that the stock is not down more it's up 80% year to date and earnings have grown 40% or so year over year

you have seen growth, but a lot of that was priced into the stock. i would have expected it to be down another 5%. and do not miss a huge slate of interviews on "mad money" tonight. jim is talking with the ceo ofs of cisco, target, and palo alto. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. a new activist investor setting its sights on disney just as the media giant seems to be rebounding from multiyear lows what value act might be looking to get out of the company, and what it could mean for the stock. plus, u.s./china relations taking center stage, as biden meets with xi jinping on the west coast the latest out of that, and the big ceo dinner to keep an eye on that's ahead you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim:

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of disney hitting their highest level since may. according to cnbc activist spotlight, the fund began buying the stock over the summer, during the hollywood strike, at an average cost per share in the low 80s. the company believes disney's park and consumer product business alone could be worth 80 bucks a share. the stock, which hit a nine-year low last month, is now up nearly 20% from those levels. do you agree with that valuation, $80 for the consumer part of the business >> i do. and it's, you know, it's all of the ebitda right now, but it's kind of like you get in the streaming business for free. i don't know what value act does, but if the name implies, they are looking for companies they think are cheap and i think disney's got a lot

of problems with their core business, but we're not doing an asset-based valuation, we're doing an earnings multiple the stock's had a decided move both above the 200, and this is a six-month high in the stock. this is the kind of of moment -- we've heard about, whether it's nelson -- the activist story is not a reason to go buy disney. if you are listening to an activist who is having apparently discussions with management, but where there's an argument in favor of the valuation, that's where you listen i think you do >> it's like a kicker, though, isn't it >> that's not the reason to buy -- >> no, i agree i would agree it's not the reason, but if you believe that iger is on the right track, that additional pressure from three different activists, i would think, kind of helps a little bit at the margin. >> these are different types of activists. valueact is a very, very long-term, really tries to see themselves as a partner. not really wanting to get into high profile fights, anything like that. so, if you are bob iger, that's a much better partner --

>> than a penltz? >> right valueact, very often, goes on the board, and they are partners for a long time. does that give him enough cover? maybe. >> yeah. mike >> yeah, i mean, it's -- this is a situation where i think some of their businesses that have actually been doing pretty well, i don't know that there's a whole lot more upside, for example, in the parks area they had some big price increases, i think they're probably bumping up against what consumers can absorb there obviously they have the hulu acquisition, that's going to chew up money, and, you know, they are already focused on big cost savings, you know, they targeted something like 7.5 billion dlz worth of cost savin already. i think it's reasonably valued here, between 21 and 22 times earnings, probably there's still some work to be done coming up, high stakes on the west coast all the headlines out of

president biden's meeting with xi jinping and how tech a.i. and the global company could be impacted. and visa on the record we're getting a read on consumer credit conditions. we've got the details when "fast money" returns missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. today's blockbuster biden/xi summit the pair breaking for lunch after wrapping the first of three sessions of the meeting in woodside, california, in an effort to smooth heightened tensions between the world's two biggest economies. eamon javers hair more >> it was a flawlessly produced scene today. president biden warmly greeting xi jinping at a lavish estate in woodside, california, with a hand shake designed to show the world that the two nations are not spiraling into hostility inside the meeting room, warm words of welcome, as both leaders reached for de-escalatory language for the televised portion of the summit. both men cited their long personal relationship, which dates back to before either one was president of his country

>> mr. president, we've known each other for a long time we haven't always agreed, which has not surprised anyone, but our meetings have always been candid, straightforward, and useful >> and for his part, xi jinping nodded towards the history of the strategic relationship t >> translator: china/u.s. relationship has never been smooth sailing, and it as faces problems of one kind or another. yet, it has kept moving forward amid twists and turns. >> now, the rest of this meeting is taking place behind closed doors right now at the estate, which is about 30 minutes south of san francisco so, the next indication of how things are going, and if any agreements have been made, should come at 7:00 p.m. east coast time, when president biden is expected to hold a press conference with reporters. but we're told they are running a little bit behind schedule, so, that timing could slip this evening. back over to you >> will it be a president biden next to president xi sort of press conference, where they

both take questions -- >> we do not expect the typical two and two format that we've seen with other leaders. we think we're going to see biden on his own, but they tolds a couple of things to expect today that haven't worked out exactly as planned, so, we'll wait and see what we see >> it will be interesting to see what the chinese state media, how they, you know, cover it tomorrow morning eamon, thank you >> you bet >> our next guest says the real show will come at tonight's ceo summit john resultutledge is with us nw >> great to see you, melissa >> so, this is a $2,000 plate sort of dinner, and i'm just wondering, who needs who more, when it comes to u.s. ceos and president xi >> well, you know, the table that xi is sitting at is actually $40,000 a chair so, this is an american-style ceo dinner xi is -- xi is trying to win back the hearts and minds of the

investors and the ceos, and he's got a big job to do, and i don't think he's going to succeed. >> i think that a lot of u.s. companies are afraid of the lack of rule of law, of potentially being detained, of having offoffice s shut down, retaliation, i mean, take a look at -- fox con is not a u.s. company, bauut it produces the iphone for apple and being used sort of as a tool to get terry gou, who is running for president in taiwan, and so, is there anything that xi can say? because i doubt he's going to say, you know what, i promise you that you come here and this is the rule of law and we will obey that. i don't think he's going to give that up. >> well, his pitch today is the rodney king pitch. why can't we all get along and the problem is that china has one person running the entire country he has taken over complete control of china and one guy wakes up every morning and if he has a bad breakfast, something bad can happen in policy

xi's policies have proved unstable so far. the tech attack that he did, the covid issues, and hong kong, and so, i think that this is not going to change. the national security law makes it that much worse and more dangerous, so, i'd be trying to move my business gradually over some place else. >> john, it's tim. we certainly priced a lot of negativity both into some of the u.s. firms that have direct china exposure, but certainly in terms of the chinese names, the trade here, some of their biggest tech companies, for mitt call reasons there, but have we overpriced in all of the things we all know? and is the chinese economy, relative to where these companies are trading, is this an oversell? >> the economy is in serious trouble, as we know. they're doing things with the centralen baing, they are doing things with spending money on housing, but the real estate problems, they are very serious,

and they're going to get worse before they get better and so, i think that regarding the markets, to answer your question, depends on who you are. i'm a long-term investor, i don't care what happens to the price tomorrow, i care about the prices in ten years. and china is just too risky on a fundamental basis for me to want to be there at all, no matter what the price is. but if you had a shorter horizon in trading, i suspect from a trading perspective, the chinese markets are going to do well this week, because we're having happy time in san francisco, and only nice things are going to be -- going to be said ceos don't make short-term decisions, at least they shouldn't, and so, if you are committing capital to a place for 10, 20, 50 years, then, you need to think more like a fundamental investor and be careful of your supply chain and be careful of your sourcing. >> john, bonawyn here. thank you for being with us. given the economic decline in the real estate sector that we've seen in china, at what

point do you believe xi jinping, if at all, would be incentivized to kind of truly step forward and more than just a symbolic way? >> well, the problem is, he can do that on any given day and the day after that, he can change his mind again he's actually made moves of that sort, will open up, will do incentives for business, he's depeeling for more fdi, but i think when he -- the national security law was basically a good-bye fdi law it doesn't make sense to be physically located in china now for u.s. executives. china will come back one day i'm a long-term china optimist, always have been but i don't think it will happen while they're run by such a dramatic one-man autocracy it's going to take group think, like we had before, to pull that off. >> john, thank you for your take >> pleasure. >> john rutledge mike khouw, are you also wondering about whether or not

companies should be in china at this point i mean, if you are taking the long long-term look, maybe you can get positive, but in the short-term, is it just a sort of a fool's errand to be there? >> you wouldn't invest in this kind of environment. look, if you are thinking about investing in any kind of an area, one of the things you are most concerned about are stability and the rule of law, as opposed to the rule of one person and their capricious attitudes. we actually did buy baba going into this. we only held it a couple of days, so, we are only a buck or two into it right now. but in the longer term, you just don't invest in situations as unstable as that it's a significant business risk, and even if you are buying something that is exposed to that kind of race, you have to discount it materially because of it. >> i think -- i hear you on that i think baba's been significantly discounted and i think the spin-off of the subsidiaries is a driver and i think you price this, really, at bargain basement, sum

of the parts but look, em is suffering because of china and i don't think that gets better. coming up, digging into visa shares up 20% this year. getting an inside look at how the company is navigating the current state of the markets and the consumer, next. plus, the obesity drug battle rages on. shares of lilly and novo nordisk taking a breather, as one sir ring maker goes higher we have te he details next. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy?

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welcome back to "fast

money. shares of visa up 20% this year. kate rooney just sat down and spoke with the executive chairman and former ceo. they spoke about the impact of return to work on their business, his outlook on the global economy, and much, much more kate >> hey, melissa. so, al kelly is among the thousands of executives here at the apec ceo summit, meeting alongside global leaders from apec and al kelly is now the executive chairman of visa, the former ceo, and a co-chair of this summit. he says consumer is looking resilience from his vantage point. he said there's been a decline in average transactions, as people buygeneric brands but he said there is a boost with people going back to work >> there's a big deal. when anybody thinks about the consumer during the day, many people buy a cup of coffee or a bagel, they get something to lunch. they pay for their transit ticket on the way in, pay for it

on the way back, so, everybody -- 70% of people did that, that's four extra transactions that are relatively low value transactions >> visa also announced some strategic initiatives for apec, which al kelly said is a huge opportunity for the company. >> we're certainly very excited about continuing to grow our business in these countries. many of which have tremendous upside many of them are still very cash societies. 50%, 60% of the business is in cash so, for a company like ours, there's great opportunity. >> we will hear a lot more from heavy hitters tomorrow including elon musk, going to hear from sam altman openai, as well melissa, back to you >> kate, thank you it's interesting the granular look he has into the consumer. >> yeah, he has a great look billions of transactions and they can see all of it i -- they should run a fund.

and just use that data -- >> oh. >> no, seriously maybe -- unless it's illegal, then, of course, they shouldn't do it. but if they have a look into how well the consumer is doing -- >> yeah. >> you would think they have a look into travel, who is traveling and how much they're spending and -- that's an incredibly valuable data set. >> yeah. mike >> it's -- well, that data set is partially available, of course, you know, alternative data that is the kind of thing that people are capturing, a lot of funds actually are able to sort of take advantage of this kind of information, you know, it's not just satellites of parking lots outside of malls, so, this is definitely one of the things that people are looking at good growth story, visa. all right, coming up, two european countries saying oh, no to ozempic, sending shares of the weight loss drug company sinking. more "fast money" in two

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though revenues were coming off, they talked about how the glp-1s are going to offset that decline. karen, what did you make of the declines, particularly in the drug makers? >> i think it's just so much money has gone into them, right, and they run up so much, and now the market is sort of looking elsewhere a little bit, that it's not quite the shiny thing for maybe just a moment, it might be back to going the shiny -- being the bright shiny thing, but i think it was just so far so fast and money just -- >> the message in here is, as always, we know, it's very political, regulatory environment, et cetera, but this is not -- this is actually talking about the demand in other words, there's no question all this is doing is endorsing the reason, and this is -- this is not going to hold them up. so, supply constraints and dynamics, we get it, they want to get as much supply into the market as they can, but this is really underscoring the bull case >> yeah, i think there's some high frequency in here, as well. you see restrictions, right?

and immediately you want to sell and given all the profits you've had, you want to be first out of the door and ask questions later. with that said, to tim's point, i think this all underscores demand whether it's an export ban or saying you can only use this for diabetes at the moment, just speaks to, you know, the massive demand for both drugs. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade let's go arne thound the horn. mike khouw >> workday reports in a couple of weeks probably better on the eps side if margins improve >> tim >> intel is actually leading the semiconductor index over the last six months, outperformed by 16%. part of this is positioning. part of this is valuation dynamic. part of this is a company that is making the right moves. >> karen >> yes so, one that tim and i know well, which is pfizer, seemed to cross back across the $30 line today, which used to be, you know, unimaginable, but now is upside for them. so, i would say pfizer right here, i think the worst is

behind them. >> bonawyn >> strong quarter in what i perceive to be a more conservative outlook rather than a bad outlook. tjx on weakness. >> thank you for watching "fast money. mea do not go anywhere "mad money" th j cmewiimrar starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom or tweet me @jimcramer. after a giant rally, they're always predictable and yes, a little ridiculous. they're about buying stocks that were missed on day one or stocks of