tv Street Signs CNBC November 16, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST
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>> one thing that stood out yesterday, on a lighter note, important -- an olive branch perhaps. >> absolutely. i guess we can call it panda diplomacy in addition to the things they agreed on. the resumption of the military ties was a good one. the agreement to curb the fentanyl exports given the crisis in the u.s. as president biden said, the key is to trust
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and also verify that china is sticking to their side of the equation as well. all and all, for the markets, a positive development in that things were agreed with the two sides, no deterioration or language, and we can move on in terms of it being a major geo- political event and go back to the earning drivers from the u.s. the handover was positive. we had all of the three wall street inn decisions in the session in the green, and one major mover was target. the stock surged 17% yesterday after posting better than expected results, giving life to the retail sector. we had not as bad as expected retail sales numbers out of the u.s. we will talk about that with silvia later on in the show. that meant the handover was positive, and less so in the asian mix. it's leaning to negative today.
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let's go into the individual boards. up 0.4 of a%. one name we are watching closely is seamans. the stock has been closely watched. stock is up 5% after beating profits and even though they issued the cautious sales outlook for next year, the reaction in the market has been positive. on the flip side, chemicals at the bottom. down here a quarter f a% here and some of the luxury names coming out of selling pressure. burberry is at the bottom, down 10%. investors not cheered on by the results put out this morning. again, we will talk about that in detail on the show. now to sectors and tell you where the leadership is coming
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from. the defensive sector doing well. industrial is up in germany this morning. real estate seeing life after the bond rally the last few days from lower than expected inflation numbers. oil and gas today down 1.3%. the assets down .9%. let's talk about siemens. record profit for the fiscal year. profit rising 11% to 11.4 billion euros, and comparable revenue jumping 4%. for 2024, the group expects slower revenue growth 4% to 8%. let's go out to anessa who has been covering all of the siemens results. on this one in particular, i'm sure prized to see the stock up
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6%. their outlook was pretty cautious for next year. >> reporter: yes, but still it was better than expected, and also, if you look at the share price, that's industrying. they are underperforming their community. bb and also rockwell in the united states. the siemens shares have been a disappointing story. that's why we are seeing the catchup demand now with the numbers which are beating expectations across the board. the only like soft spot i would say is the profitability in the industrial business. that's where analysts have expected more, but yeah, the company is quite positive about the outlook, i have to say, even though the growth rates are not like skyrocket high, but given all of the uncertainties and also the downturn in the economies, they are saying they have actually gained market share, which is a very positive sign, of course.
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they are not just growing with the market, but they are outgrowing the market, and that's also one reason for the positive reaction today. plus, they are hiking their dividends, also not expected. it's like the general package. why? we look into the positive share price reaction today. i spoke with the ceo, mr. bush, a little bit earlier on "today." i asked him about the global macro outlook, and his take, clearly siemens is operating across the globe, and it's to give us a sense of how the real economy is actually doing. take a listen. >> if you look at the global economy, it's currently weak. one, of course, question mark is how is choi that developing? at the same time, we know our customers have a huge task, again, driving the sustainability. it's not option anymore.
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they have to be competitive in the world where digitalization is changing everything so fast. talking about the acts on the market, and they are playing into our hands this is money going into the future technologies and innovations. this is where siemens is very strong. we are investing 8% of our revenue in r&d. combining software and hardware, and sustainability, too. we believe it's sitting on the right market. >> reporter: so essentially the business is doing well, but if you look at their sub unit, digital industries, new orders are down by 17%, and that is perhaps the most sensitive
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business unit they have, and that is, of course, a sign that the global economy is turning down in general, siemens said in another part of the interview, they are generally benefiting, big time from all of the initiatives going into clean tech and calm neutrality. that's where they are positioned very well and where the core of the business is, plus, of course digitalization. that's why they are expecting that their revenue and new order growth will keep on growing, despite a general deceleration of the economy. it couldn't be a sharper contrast to what we have heard from siemens energy, and of course, they do operate in different markets, but siemens also made it pretty clear today that they want to get, yeah, they want to split their
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activities from the ones from siemens energy, and the first step now by the indian joint venture is also, yeah, a step in to that direction, and so support for siemens energy, yes, but no like medium or long- term vision to actually keep the businesses close together. >> annette, thank you for your coverage this morning and staying on top of the twists and turns of the story. there's certainly being many. now turning our attention to high-end fashion. burberry says it will come at the lower end of forecast. the comparable growth down 1% from 18% in the previous quarter. >> we had a discussion, talking about the state of luxury. it feels like a luxury winter thinking of the results the last few months. charlotte has talked us through
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it. in this case, burberry, something is specific to it. it is a u.k. company, and i think that one thing, and the ceo was clear on this in his remarks earlier, what is affecting the brand, because it's a u.k. brand, a lack of refunds. remember, it was the refundability for tourists to get refunds on purchases, removed in 2021, part of the brexit decision. and the purpose of doing it so the government could raise more revenue, but it's impacted sales. the numbers out now are showing the impact of forgotten sales is more than the impact if they could have kept the rebates in place. i think many of the luxury companies are getting damage from this, and burberry is a good example of this. >> it's interesting that the u.k. weakness plays into the
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weakness we are seeing overall today. looking at the break down in the results this morning, and for the quarter, immu up 10%. asia pacific, up 2%, not great there, and they did note in china, they have seen a slowdown, and the slowdown through the quarter in particular in september. the real weakness here was in the americas, down 10%, and you and i have spoke so many times about the aspirational consumer weakening, and it seems like this is perhaps the story of the aspirational consumer falling off again. >> it's a consistent weakness, and we saw it with lvmh. the theme does not appear to be going away. we talk about the resilience of the u.s. consumer, and we will talk about it later in the show with the retail sale numbers,
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be that's for cheaper, discretionary spending, but the bigger ticket items, poem are pulling back and scaling back on purchases. it's interesting. we will flush out what is happening more broadly in the u.s. retail, and now to the delivery stocks. they are finding hellofresh's profits hard to digest. they are on the way for the worst path ever. they confirmed the guidance a couple of months ago, and they are now delivering guidance. >> i sold that as well. it seems strange they would reconfirm their guidance and massively surprise the downside. it's the question of what visibility did they have on the business and why did they misguide this way. it feels to me the reaction from hellofresh is a question about management and communications as opposed to the results themselves.
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>> absolutely. i think that's the right read. and now on to alcon. the ceo has a bullish tone for the future, telling me he is confident that the company will create the long-term value for stakeholders. >> we had a terrific quarter. what was exciting about it, we saw growth ahead of market in the categories. markets were solid. a little bit softer in surgical, but very robust in the vision care business, and as you say, vision care is doing well in the back of the contact lens progress. feeling good about that. affects hurt us in the big picture. the dollar strengthened against the emerging market currency, and we are distributed all over the weird. that's something we pay close attention to. let's talk about the surgical growth, growing in line with the market, but some investors were disappointed by
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the growth in this category, and that's part of the reason why the stock traded down on the results. give us a little bit of color on what is going on in surgical. >> i think there may have been too much enthusiasm from the first quarter. china had a huge bounceback in the second quarter if you will remember, growing 7% in the category that normally grows four or five. when you see it back to four, i think it caught the folks not paying attention a little by surprised. we were satisfied by the global growth. i think the u.s. was a little softer than the international markets, but pretty much normal growth following this week's flat cpi reading, big bank bosses are telling cnbc how they see the fed moving next. stay with cnbc. we will be back in a few moments.
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ubs's ermotti spoke exclusively to me in london and said inflation is too high for the central banks to declare victory and ruled out aggressive rate cuts in the near term. >> inflation is above the center of bank targets. core inflation is above what everybody expects. maybe not, but i can tell you it's way too early to declare victory, and inflation has to, and i believe will continue to be the most important thing center banks need to focus on in the foreseeable future. they will need to see the inflation rates below the target rates. i would be surprised to see the rates coming down before that. morgan stanley chairman and ceo saying he believes that
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inflation has been stamped out speaking in singapore, gorman questions if they should be changing things. >> u.k. was below the 5%. 4 1/2 or so. the u.s. was trending down, now in the low 3s. this is real progress, and you know, give the central banks credit. they moved aggressively with rates, and i think they were late, just the personal view, but it doesn't matter. when they got there, they really got going, and took rates 0% to 5%. the fed did 5.5% with the fastest rate increase in 40 years. it's had impact. we are not done. is 2% absolutely necessary?
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my personal view is no. directionally to be headed in that around 2% or 3%, i think that's an exceptional outcome given the cards they were dealt with. i give them credit. senior investment strategist at vanlemshot joining us. a rivetting couple of weeks in markets to say the least. do you think the market is ahead of itself in terms of repricing what they expect from the fed? are investors too optimistic that easy policy is around the corner in your crew? >> well, i think it's fairly realistic. the evidence of inflation coming down, it's quite strong. we see the inflation number in the u.s. itself, and of course, now 4%, but on a three-month annualized basis, around 2.5. the producer prices coming down, and we can see from the surveys, basically seeing the
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same in europe. so there is a reason to be more optimistic. there is a lot of talk about the last mile will be more difficult, and that's probably related to the market with more cooling there in the u.s. than europe. it's also signs there. i think that yeah, thinking of rate cuts and talking of rate cuts is more realistic than it was a month ago. >> in terms of the drivers of the equity markets s it fair to say the equities are following bond markets? >> yeah, i think that with all markets, they are very sensitive to inflation and to monetary policy outlook. so that is the bull market and the equity market. you saw it clearly with the inflation numbers in the u.s., and they were lower than expected, equity up. i think it's all driven by the
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same underlying component, and that is lower inflation, and the prospect of the change in monetary policy. >> as, you know, just as a followup to what julianna just asked you, the rate cuts pricing in for next year, surely that's a bad sign for the economy. it's because the situation has deteriorated so much the recession is what the central banks are forecasting. that cannot be a good thing from where the stocks go here. why is the market reacting positively to the proposition or the possibility that there could be rate cuts in 2024? >> if inflation is your only worry and the news is better than expected, you're more optimistic. there's another worry, and that's the growth slowdown. i think the market is very much
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braced for a soft landing. a couple of rate cuts, not too much, and the labor market not weakening meaningfully. we disagree on that. we are cautious in the economic outlook. we think that earnings expectations are too optimistic for next year, and, yeah, the relief we currently see is all about inflation and monetary policy, and in deed, if we get the rate cuts and more rate cuts than currently expected, because the economy is weakening, you will get the earnings, downgrades, and we think it will be, we will have a stronger impact overall in the end on the equity markets, more than just the declining inflation. >> can i just ask you your perspective on how the relative earnings seasons have gone? i thought it was interesting that 80% of the u.s. economies have surprised the upside,
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about 50% in europe. based on that alone, you could say the u.s. companies are relatively in a better position than european companies, but, of course, that's an aerial view. what is your prospective >> the earning season was better in the u.s. than in europe. the overall growth was slightly positive in the u.s. and firmly negative in europe. think of the underlying economy. the u.s. economy has still pretty strong growth in the third quarter. in real terms, even more. europe, we have not had any growth in europe for about a year. so earnings have continued to grow, basically on higher inflation, and so price increases, and thereby protecting the margins. that's difficult in the economy where it doesn't grow. that difference is what we do see between the u.s. and
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europe. it's also the underlying economy that has been quite different. >> yeah, very clear that appears to be the case and the baseline for many of the investors, and people are cautious here. thank you for joining us on the show today. also coming up on street signs, spain's acting prime minister is preparing for the lawmaker vote in his bid to form a new government. the details when we come back.
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and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time. only at sleep number. welcome to street signs. >> these are your headlines. >> president biden and xi jinping vowed to work together, but a certain tension remains. >> he runs the country that is
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communist country wanting to run a government different from ours. >> siemens reporting records sale growth for the rest of the year, but cautions growth will slow in 2024. the company says they are benefiting from the drive for sustainability. talking about the subsidiaries. this is where siemens is very strong. and burberry sinks in early trade. warning operating profit will be the low end of the forecast. protests continue to erupt in one country's capital.
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let's turn our attention to wall street to get a check on u.s. futures, how the session is shaping up, not a huge amount of movement on the board there. a muted start to trade. we will get industry production from october. from the retail perspective, walmart numbers to look out for. geopolitical tensions have been front and center at the european partners meeting in frankfort. now to anetta who has a special guest. >> reporter: thank you. we are talking about the geo political tension reflecting into the trade tension. now i'm joined by annita holmes. you're based in berlin, not frankfurt, but thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> reporter: we were saying the political tensions are the forefront of every debate, but also how does it reflect into
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the trade relations. what is your view? >> it has significant impact, globally and also on german suffering with covid times and then the war hit in 2022. these had really significant impacts. the u.s.-china war has been difficult for the european union indirectly, and now also direct effects looking at the relationships with the european union and china, and china has decided to restrict exports of significant products like rare earth into the european union. the chinese companies have to apply for licenses to export those. on the other side, the european union has decided to do various things. the chips act is top of the mind, because the european
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union wants to lessen the dependency, but at the moment, the market is 10% through the european union. we know at best, we can reach 20%. again, seeing less of the dependency, as tricky and difficult. nevertheless, the european union tries. one other point to make reference to is i think the subsidies act, the foreign subsidies act, which is, of course, a strong mechanism as well. again, trying to see where is money flowing in from where, and are the companies subsidized by the government or not. >> reporter: specifically asking you, we are seeing the growing debate of what europe could do against the highly subsidized corridors into the european union. what is the background noise you are hearing? >> definitely the european
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commission has decided to take steps. with are seeing that investigation into battery electric vehicles. that's a concrete example if the european commission decided to investigate. apparently the cars coming imported into the european union from china are 20% less expensive, and the european commission has decided concretely to take steps here, and also, talking about mergers and acquisitions, and also public tenders, and foreign subsidies act specifically referring to those and wants to see and understand the market better, and there's approval needed going forward. >> we are talking a lot also about the activity of europe as a place to invest, verses the united states. the inflation reduction act, and do you see the real impact when it comes to investment
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flows? >> we are seeing a lessens of fdi into the european union, and we also see positive signs. for example, france is doing much better. projects, france is number one at the moment. not calculated by employees, but projects. yes, we have definitely been struggling, but where does this come from? is this a global environment or something structural? i would say the european union continues to be very attractive looking at infrastructure, well- trained staff, legal certainty, and that is key for investors, but we can also see on the other hand, licensing approval taking too long,
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obviously, and mechanisms like the inflation reduction act in the u.s. it triggers discussions around the long- term investments that may go to the united states instead of the european union. i would differentiate here. the transactions are long-term. stand alone, i would not say the ira has a significant impact, and also taken into account what we have, the green deal and innovation fund. we also have to take into account the high energy prices. i want to reiterate the hurdles we have and the approval requirements that take way too long. >> reporter: do you think there will be an improvement in the negative things, given that we are headed into this super election year next year? >> i think it's the top of mind of every politician right now
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because the business leaders reiterate that point again and again, and i think it's in our very best interest to really try hard to lessen the bureaucracy and the time we need to get approvals. >> annita, thank you for your insight. >> thank you very much. >> reporter: with that, back over to you. it was an interesting day, i have to say. siemens topics, and also trade related topics. >> we are thankful for your coverage. thank you for all your interviews and the coverage of siemens the last few days from germany. spain's leader will be facing new scrutiny. right-wing lawmakers heckled him. today is the all important vote which his party expects to win
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following deals with separatists. charlotte is continuing to follow the story. the vote is expected to be happening today. any way it doesn't go through for mr. sanchez? >> on paper, with that proindependence, party looks like it has numbers. 179 to 350. looking like he could have the absolute measure. absolute, at least a simple majority. it looks like on paper, the deal is done. gave mps and sounded like a normal vote talking about the economy given that spain, of course, has been one of the bright spots in the european commission of grading the forecast of spain at 2.4% this year for gdp extending the measures already in place, and extending the tax for banks and energy companies, and all of this is normal, and then subtly attacking the opposition.
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talking about how his alliance was the only one against the right and the far right. he was talking about the far right coming into play for spain as well. finally an hour after talking, he talked about the controversial amnesty. he defended it saying he respected people's feelings against it and 75% of spain is against this. he said it's in terms of the stability and dialogue in the country, and he was gloves off, attacking the opposition. >> translator: at this stage in our democracy with all we have lived and gone through in the 40 years, it should not be innocent. the problem is not the amnesty for the leaders. the problem with the popular party, they do not accept the electoral result on july 23rd. >> the leader of the opposition himself continued talking, talking about the process over
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the last few days, and criticized pedro sanchez and said it was a question of personal ambition. >> translator: let no one be mistaken, nothing ends today. this is not the final drink. there are no limits, nor will there be o satisfy candidate sanchez. he has no problem resulting to lies when it benefits him. there's no political limits because the ends justifies the means. they are not legal limits. it's if it suits the personal interest of himselfs or his partners. what limit could there be? >> an intense debate, but it looks like he has put out a call for the snap election. been in power since 2018. a lot of questions on the amnesty, and it's not going to go away any time soon. it will be challenged or done case by case by the judges. the question of the stability of the government since the
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reliance on the small parties that can try to bargain on every decision. we know the economist was respected in brussels, trying to become the head of the european investment bank. all of this, a bit of an unknown in spain at the moment. certainly the same person in charge, but there could be a lot of changes going forward. >> charlotte, thank you for walking us through everything in spain. the u.s. senate has passed a funding bill to prevent a government shutdown, sending it to the president's desk to sign before the weekend deadline. the stop gap bill passing 87 11. here's something interesting, earlier in the show we were talking about the pivotal meeting with president biden and president xi jinping. tesla put out a comment now saying the chinese president also met with elon musk on november 15th . that was
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yesterday. he told musk he supports tesla's development in china in the statement by the company. that sort of ties into what you were saying earlier, julianna. part of the messaging was to the american corporates, china is ready and open for business. the fdi flows turning negative in the last 12 months. >> he met with the world's richest men. >> musk was one of the attendees at the event. i don't believe he stayed for the whole dinner, but he came to the reception, and now this statement. certainly sending the signal i would say. elon musk does not shy away from stepping into the political sphere. we know that. we will take a quick break. coming up, it's a mixed bag for retailers. target had one of the best days ever on wall street. silvia isjoining uto gs o through the numbers, next.
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are familiar with. now the outlook, though, seems to be improving. when we heard from home depot earlier this week, they said the worst of the inflation is behind us. that was very much in line with that key data, the cpi print on tuesday from the united states. in deed suggestioning the inflationary pressure is in the united states. i want to go to target. we heard from the ceo speaking to our colleagues stateside yesterday, and target has posted a boost with eps and revenue, but the ceo also said it's too early, really, to weigh in on what expectations they have for holiday sales. now later on today, we are going to hear from more u.s. retailers, walmart, macy's, and gap. all posting their results. we are approaching black friday sales next week, and of course, the very important christmas
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shopping season for the retailers. >> silvia, thank you for breaking down what we have heard so far from the retailers. i thought yesterday's target numbers, the reaction to target was extraordinary. >> up 17% yesterday in trading. >> huge. >> seems like it's not about the sales impressing investors, but cost cutting, and target has been exceptional on delivering on the cost cutting plans. >> what i did find interesting about the results, the sales were not that great. >> right. >> i think what they had done in contrast to hellofresh, any down-beat guidance would bring an uptick in the stock. they, for months and all of this year have been warning about the head winds. theft continues to be an ongoing situation for the retailers. one of my takeaways, the u.s. consumers are spending less on
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big ticket items, and more on the smaller day-to-day discretionary spending. >> essentials really. >> you would expect that to continue if the u.s. economy continues to weaken from here. we will get more insight in the retail space with walmart earnings later today. we will break down any interesting developments tomorrow on street signs. that's it for today's show. at the moment, the european markets are mixed. mixed trade within the sectors and across the regions. we will leave you with a picture of the u.s. futures as we hand you over to our u.s. colleagues. >> worldwide exchange is coming up next.
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. it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters, and here's your 5 at 5:00 the november rally continuing to regain momentum on growing evidence of a cooling but growing economy. president biden hailing productive talks with china's xi jinping but showing limits in the push to ease ongoing tensions inflation over that's the take from morgan stanley's outgoing ceo setting a new target for the fed's fight against high prices. shutdown averted the senate working late into the night to complete a deal to keep the government up
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