>> [speaking in a non-englis language >> i'm joined by - hello everybody and welcome to -- we're live from the nasdaq

>> about 108 it's up by 12, nasdaq up by 11 the dow did go down yesterday, before the winning streak. we're still talking about th dow, up by i think 2%. i think up a little bit more than nuts. and even where you've seen som -- the 2000, maybe a little bit yesterday. but it's up more than 4% ove the week, so it just shows you again the -- of the smaller stocks, wit some of that happening - where we're standing right now what we've been watching - treasury yields right no continuing to see that pressure it's a 4.4%, up four point 39, we're talking about

significant pullback continuing check out the price of crude oil. it's actually rebounding eve so slightly. it's up by that 1%, and it was down by almost 5% yesterday. that's its lowest level sinc early july i think it was july 7th. if you're seeing it right now, a price of - a barrel, >> the s&p and nasda are up >> the guy - i got the feeling that it wa another decision in the time, triple digits - >> we'll see >> let's talk about ibm and th tech story a lot going on, a lot of headlines. the ibm is advertising on x, after a report finding the companies ads were linked to antisemitic contact. -- outs from apple and oracle both bravo and expedia, whic

of course are both owned by pv parent company contact ibm saying it has zero tolerance for hate and discrimination, and ex folks person telling cbc that medi matters will post hatefu comment that's no longer monetizable -- will limiting its reach, but all of this comes after elon musk found himself in th middle of more controversy after he went on twitter or on axe himself, and agreed with a post that said the jewis community pushed hatred of white people so it's not just these other posts that are creating this firestorm, though, in ivm' case i would say it's particular to that issue, not necessaril elon musk's comments, though i'm sure that that's inflaming this now, tiktok is also taking dow videos and blocking searches that are promoting osama bin

laden, - justification. which as joe said at the top o the hour, it's one of th things you can't even fathom we'd be talking about. that would go viral. it's not just that it's goin viral, now people do this thin where they have the background behind them and they'r pointing to the letters, and it's not just that the recycling or retweeting, o re-sharing these letters they're saying that they agree with them. they live in america, these ar americans that live here, an say that they agree with the letter it's appalling >> to me, it's been five or si weeks of disbelief i don't know what else to call it it's sort of a disgustin disbelief. i started thinking, appearin next to the -- is bad, but then starting to think that i'm watching nightl news, and the last thing i see

-- i get a college campus on th side of the building, this projection of the glorious hamas murders. and then we go to a commercial and it's everywhere. and it's worse on social media and it's exacerbated on social media. i think it's multiplied on social media but you can't avoid it i still think there' mainstream media that shouldn' be - >> how is it different look, my view of our job a journalists is to not only report what happens, but t talk to people, to interrogate the news, to interrogate ideas even bad ideas it is our responsibility to do that so when i see things on a news report about - assuming the news report hopefully, is an objective

report to some degree, and tha they're doing it in good faith i don't look at that and say i couldn't be reporting that these people have th perspective that they have >> they fit these horrific opinions that or not voiced ou loud - you begin with social media. it certainly comes out o social media, and i think it's made worse it spreads more. >> it's not interrogating, i spreads more because it's no interrogated by journalists. it's not interrogated by peopl -- bad ideas, that they need to - >> i hear some of the news organizations are the freedo fighters, calling them soldiers not 18, not being allowed to call them terrorists because one person's terrorist is another person's freedo fighter. so it's not being interrogated equally, or very successfull by some topics of mainstream

media. it's weird >> i started reading yesterday israel shared a lot of the footage from the gopros that some of these tariffs were wearing on october 7th, starte collectively with journalists, shared it with congres yesterday and earlier this week and reading their descriptions i didn't want to share i widely out of respect for the families reading the descriptions o what they saw, i hope th people that are seeing these things on social media are taking the time to go and read some of those descriptions >> you can go back to an period in history and not find -- the most damaged behavior that the world has ever seen. >> and to be able to say the things that they're saying supporting hamas, it is thes things

go read these descriptions, an explain why you feel that way. because i think th descriptions get the same broa play that i think we're seeing >> how could 300,000 demonstrators have a peaceful, forming demonstrated - the other side, and cars o fire, and -- >> i think that we should be showing these videos of osam bin laden. >> how old are they? they're looking at these things do they know anybody, thei parents or - >> you don't have to if you read the descriptions >> what happened i don't understand there's a business story now >> yes

>> it's stupid to even car about that side of things, you know, it seems like it's not worthy, but you have to. ibm is pulling their ads materials under pressure thi morning, - reported that the company says a justice department investigation allegedl violating export restriction with china, dealing with semiconductor manufacturing an international corporations, th biggest chip maker - previously disclosed a federal review of -- >> apple about to make i easier to text between iphones and android devices. a big news that the czech gian is planning to adopt the standard next year, which make texting more smooth. apples pushback for a long tim on the standard known as our p.s., for more than a year which allows the tech --

to be shared over differen phones on different platforms. iphone users currently kno when they're texting another iphone, because the chat bubbles are blue well, android contracts are th older green style, and tha appears like it might change i wonder what other signal wil be to know which phone i which. we'll see. >> andrew, thanks. when we come back, we're wrapping up a strong week fo the markets. going into thanksgiving an beyond, we have more on that you're watching -- and this is cnbc and this is cnbc

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right now is perry firestone - ceo and industry contributor let's talk a little bit abou this week, i have the feelin of a real inflection i don't know if it sticks, but you're looking at the market u significantly, that rotation out of some of the names w know well. some of the names you know not if you're looking at small cap be - real movement taking place do you think this will last? >> well, it definitely is ou to a good star pre-thanksgiving what we saw last week, as yo said, was just a huge rall

across the board the s&p 500 was up slightl more than 2%, but the sn equally weighted, meaning a fe are talking about all the name in the s&p, that was up 3% since monday and almost all stock participated in that rally o monday i think the number four for th total market is close to 80% for the week, and that is very different from what we've seen previously this year, where seven stocks more less dominated the market they return about 80% fo september, and it has -- out, which we need to do t have a sustained rally that would be great for th market, and lower interest rates, potentially inflation i coming down. and we'll get some earning growth next year, which ha been - for many people. >> we've been getting result in, and there are some concern

about consumers at this point. is that enough to lose you t broader concerts about where existed? or do you think were lit - headed for the soft landing? >> it's interesting. -- stands out as a stock right now, both at the highest and, yesterday they reported weak numbers, in other major brandt target had - numbers. although these can chang pretty fast. you can have these numbers start to look good in the firs part of 2024 we had to keep an eye on it, because we live in a consume economy that is close to 70% o gdp. but that can change. and you know unemployment is still strong unemployment is still under 4% job growth hasn't been a strong, but people are working and we think that it is likely that consumers will hold in. maybe not as strong as it ha

been post-covid, but holding enough so that we can have - >> let's talk about a couple o names you have been adding one is cheryl swab, the other' -- communications unrelated stocks, but both o them have been feeling sever pressure >> yes we do. -- that's a company that has spen a lot of capital on developing buildup. and that's a multi yea process. and we think that beginning at the end of 2023, we're going t really see the benefit of al that buildup we've already known that peopl have been cutting the court, but you need wi-fi, and that's what charter and the companies provide. and so this is a stock that' been under pressure, hiring ha been - it's a very remarkable stop. we like it at this price our schwab is a differen story. because of interest rates goin higher, many customers hav swapped out of their lower

interest rate market funds int higher funds, for obviou reasons. that process is ending, becaus interest rates are likely to g higher it's a company that ha continued organic growth, with new customers and trade with the purchase they made, an they're beginning to get thi interviews from that - this year. again, a very remarkable stuck i would think of it as extremely attractive >> we also like name such as google it's interesting both google and meta are not i china. i think you're talking about the weakness in china, they've never had that problem so we think they're both unattractive name here then you've got a, i it's marketable stop, it ha incredible growth on various platforms. -- they make cars for metro transit, and for railroads, an

that business is strengthening the railroads need new cars, and certainly urban transi does, and they have people helping them and american power, people nee their cell phones more and more and that's an attractive way t play it. >> a lot of this is based on lower interest rates if the interest rates were t turn around and rise again would you spend your bases o any of these stocks? or the markets overall >> probably. i think probably i mean, the assumption is that rates are sort of up where they're going to be, settlin into coming down but they're definitely havin an effect across the economy just look at the housing market housing and cars have been wea because of mortgages, an around 8% level or higher fo -- it really affects demand you are seeing it and many parts of capital spending, for industrial production, highe rates. so we are of the belief that

because inflation has come down, they don't have to keep pushin rates higher and that's what the fed wanted to happen, that is going to be -- for that, and we should be abl to see that benefit over the coming months. >> thanks a lot. have a great weekend >> thank you >> when we come back on th other side of this, the 401k plans are a key wave that many americans say for retirement new rules are opening thes plants to part-time workers. we have more on that, next and exclusive interview with founder -- everything from u.s. china relations to the market. we are coming back with that and more after this. and more after this. (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others.

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one k, that's a key word for many americans to save for retirement and changes in federal law coupled with a strong labo market, are opening up and - workers. he joins us now. happy monday >> happy friday. you know, though one third o marker >> provided by their employer but new laws and higher demand for workers can change tha number -- it is a small manufacturin company in wisconsin, it opene its 401k plan to part time workers as a way to attract an retain talent. -- now works part, customizin metal parts. he says he is glad the opportunity offered him a wa to save. >> i need dollars that i can put away, i really appreciat being able to do that. i don't have a lot of space to

build up right now not compared to what i'm going to need, and with inflation, with the way it is, -- >> soon, more workers will b eligible to save this way. starting january 1st, federa law will require that 401k plans allow part-time employee to participate to qualify, employees must wor at least 500 hours a year fo three consecutive years. in 2025, that will be reduce to two years some employers say allowin part-time workers to participate in 401k plans slow their valued as full-tim staff. >> those employees that do tha walk away feeling empowere about their own retirement and that brings loyalty to our organization >> and tax credits are als part of new legislation, and may make it even mor attractive for small businesse to create 401k plans going

forward. >> it's good to be able to d that any progress with the market overall -- a lot of people -- a vote of their life do - you're not ready, you're not going to be ready, and you'r going to need money one year old. >> that's why these programs are so important now, to allow part-time workers to get for a win kate plans because older workers ar working longer a lot of folks expect that they're going to be workin overtime, and they haven't saved enough, and maybe they'r working five years or so int retirement but this might make an average of $15,000 or so a month - older workers will benefit fro this, and then research show that women, worked part-time more than men, and are must -- less likely to have the 401k plans until this legislation

passes at the beginning of the year so a lot of women who ar working part-time, militar staff who work around a lot ar working part-time, and want to have a retirement plan >> mobility and moving these things around, instead o employers keeping them where they are - >> and also gives you a lo more flexibility, which is - as long as people ar continuing to contribute t retirement plans at th workplace, and making sure tha they are keeping an eye on those 401(k) s once they leave and once they roll it over affordability, yes >> it takes forever to get things done. >> i got one thing done. the presidential sign in the yard

>> you've got a little mor time we'll talk about this, though, as well. what's coming up next for u.s. china relations following this week's meeting between president biden and former deputy, trade representative - is going to break down wha went on behind the scenes an what it all means, and then th decades old letter by osama bi laden going viral on tiktok. here's what's happening. the media giant scrambling t try to remove that content we're going to address all o the implications and so much more in the next half hour a look at yesterday's s&p 50 winners. winners. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms.

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live with the nasdaq markets check out the futures this morning, we're starting things on a bright note job teachers up almost tripl digits right now, with 9 points s&p is up by ten, nasdaq up by almost two points, and thi

comes on a very strong week fo the s&p markets. you're seeing gains across the board. the as a people get gains of just over 2% for the week. -- the dow was up by about 4% thi week it's all happening because treasury yield has come down significantly after a weaker than expected consumer and producer prices -- and inflation, showing peopl coming down to a certain extent, and that's why you see the figure now below that 4.4% the two year, sitting at 4.8%. >> the president, presiden biden and chinese president xi jinping's meeting, it's now up to secretary yellen to fin areas where the u.s. and china can work together. joining us now, -- serves as deputy u.s. trad representative under president obama. she's now the vice president o the asian society policy institute. she also - with president xi on wednesday

night. i'd like to just say, gosh it's a huge trading partner, a billion and a half people that we want to talk to they seem nice, he was smiling he seemed friendly can we do trust but verify does that work in this case? or should we just take it fo what it is, and the minute w turn our back, it could be another spy balloon or another military base. what should we do? are we suckers >> well, look. i think both leaders achieved goal in stabilizing th bilateral relationship between deliverables were achieved particularly for the unite states, with respect t restricting -- china restricting exports an fentanyl, and resuming militar dialogue with respect to the economic agenda, though, not much was

achieved on the surface, and a lot of that is going down to the working group led by secretary yellen and secretary -- and time will tell whether china's really interested in removing barriers to investment, and to trade in china. and whether they're interested in trading a better business environment, and competing on fair and level playing field we don't know. but it's not something we need to be very clear going forward >> - i don't -- when president xi says if th plan is big enough for bot countries, i want to believe it, i do but i don't think i believe it i think china has its eyes o

changing the world order in it favor. and i think both countries might still be around, but one country might have its foot on the throat of the othe country. >> exactly and i found that generally listen to the speech wit shooting ping saying china's not a threat, china's peaceful china's not taking up a hot wa or a cold war. it's hard to take that seriously when you look at their actions in the south china sea, as well as with respect to technology theft. again, it's in our interest. large economy, we're going t have to live with each other i the world. so, we need to find ways t monitor this relationship. and if there are areas we ca cooperate on, let's go forward and do it. but let's again be very clea on it, and not have unrealisti expectations >> china is in a position of say, five years ago, would i

have been different, do yo think? was president xi in a differen position because of th economic conditions in the country right now? >> i think president xi entere this summit week, in a weake economic position. and after the result, he seeme to be more forthcoming wit respect to u.s. requests president xi also set different tone about the relationship, and it would b interesting to see how other people working below him, whic is 1.4 billion people now, are going to interpret the new ton that he set for th relationship >> eternal left field. you can just say move on, if you want social media is a cesspool, an we don't need anyone making it worse. is it possible china, with

tiktok, actually i orchestrating some of the -- i don't know where our youth get some of these ideas, bin laden, whatever you want t talk about the vin laden letter there are concerning efforts from the ccp to try to influence our youth in thi country, would you go that far as to say that >> i'm not going to go that far, but i will say that china ha been instrumental in disseminating misinformation whether it be with respect t campaigns, whether it be wit respect to covid origins and accusing the united states o instigating covid. >> if you do - if you don't want an outrigh war, when you start with something like - when we think about what the do, you -- >> why wouldn't they again,, president biden raises these concerns, and indeed thi

will be tough going forward. whether some of that rhetori and misinformation now moves t the background, as president x tries to stabilize and manag the u.s. china relationship. >> the fentanyl issue, you sai that was one of the positive that came out of it. some people are cynical abou what we did get, and that's no going to do anything they have characterized it a rounding up the usual suspects we're gonna do something, is i more sensitive this time >> based on the conversation i've had, yes. not only has china already taken measures to stop, to instruct companies not t export these 51 chemicals that are used for the manufacture o fentanyl, but they've also established a working group fo ongoing communication betwee our law enforcemen authorities. so again, time will tell china's implementation effor

on this and other issues is no great. but it is taking an importan step forward, and will be test of whether this summit -- the result from this summit ca last and this relationship can stabilize. >> so what do we make of the ceos and the standing ovations president xi came to our country, talking, we have th military, we need to do that we don't want anything t excellently happen or spiral out of control what does it indicate? it's kind of an importan market was that appropriate >> it was interesting. no one expected the speech tha he actually delivered to the ceo dinner we all expected a speech where he would just talk about how great china's market is, all the stuff they're taking t open the market, how china's open for business. what's interesting is that

today in san francisco, at the ceo summit, where presiden biden and other leaders an ceos have spoken, president xi did not actually speak, but he submitted a written speech and actually, based on what i've seen of that speech, that wa like the one he should'v delivered to the dinner. but again, i think that a lo of businesses now, they're jus assessing the risks in their continued business, business operations in china. one speech is not going to lea them to say, great, let's ru in back to china everything is great. time will tell whether actua changes will happen. >> wendy, i don't know if yo saw it there was sort of a readou that came from the meeting tha president xi had with presiden biting and that readout is still very different than the comments we heard about at that dinner, an i think the speech that you're referring to

and i am just sort of curiou how you think about the -- between those things meaning, do you think that the real version is the readout, which is that we may tak taiwan, we want to do it peacefully, but we want to d it and i don't know if you can do it peacefully. i don't even know what tha means. there will be implications for all of these america businesses and western multinational businesses tha want you - to china, will be on the other side of this >> so, i always take these readouts with great skepticism remember, they're more for domestic audiences than they are an actual summary of the meeting. both leaders emphasized th issues that they want to emphasize, and they used a lot of the language that the always use on these issues so i would, again, look more t what comes out of thes meetings, what the follow-up implementation of th agreements, and whether all of these new challenges wit

communication actually work. it's great to have a militar channel, but if the chines general doesn't answer the phone, then that channel is no worth anything time will tell >> okay, good. thanks for all that, wendy trust, but verify. that's a pretty good line. >> it's so relevant. >> stabilize, but verify all right, thanks. when we come back next thi hour, bridgewater founder wa at that dinner with presiden xi we're going to talk to him and get top on the summit and u.s. china relations. we're coming right back. we're coming right back. my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene

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welcome back to "squawk box. videos of support of a decades old letter by osama bin laden criticizing the united states in its support of israel surging in popularity this week on tiktok adding to accusations the company is fueling the spread of anti-semitic content tiktok saying they are aggressively removing the content and investigating how it got on to the platform joining us now is a "new york times" business reporter it is a fascinating story, satna. there was a call with tiktok suggesting that they're not doing enough how did this even begin? >> so, really, since october 7th there has been just a flood of

anti-semitism and hate speech across the board as we all know on all the social media platforms. but it has been especially bad on tiktok. and so actually last week a pretty big group of creators, who are jewish, including some celebrities, deborah messing and amy schumer, and so on, they all wrote an open letter telling tiktok the company wasn't doing enough to stop all the hate they were seeing on the platform. they were getting all kinds of horrible, horrible comments, saying hitler was right, just terrible, terrible things. and tiktok actually reached out to this group and ended up setting up a meeting with its coo and other executives on wednesday night and actually i was able to obtain a recording of that meeting. and it was incredibly interesting. it was an hour and a half long, they really talked about everything they were

experiencing, ways in which the platform could do better, but at the end of the day, what really emerged is that this is an enormous problem and it really is out of control and actually on that call, this is -- you know, one of the creators brought up this bin laden letter that had been circulating as well. and people are just very upset >> how does what's happening on tiktok compare, if you could, and to the extent we know, and we can -- i want to get into the elon musk of it all and what is happening on x, but compared to what you see on meta, for example, on the various platforms, instagram, facebook and the like, and then x, and then some of the other services. youtube and others >> yeah. i mean, i think this is a problem across social platforms. what makes tiktok different is its powerful ail gore r algoritc

feed i would say x and tiktok are different in the sense that people really go off and discover people they don't know, they follow personalities they have never seen before and in tiktok's case, you're really there to be served content that is interesting to you, the algorithm figures out what you like so what makes a little bit of a -- it makes it all unique, right, in that people are saying they're being served a certain type of content. and across the board these algorithms, platforms are black boxes, but what people have said is they're seeing things on tiktok that are more pro-palestine, anti-israel and separately anti-semitic. so, as far as, you know, the true numbers, only the companies would really know that, but this is the experience people have. >> what you hearing from the advertising community. yesterday, we heard that ibm had pulled its advertising from x, because it had seen that its ads

were being placed next to some pro-nazi propaganda content. >> so far i haven't heard a whole lot of advertisers say one way or the other on tiktok it hasn't gotten to that point what i did find interesting about the meeting that i listened to with the creators is that tiktok, you know, put its coo, its equivalent of the coo on the phone with these creators and so they're clearly taking this very seriously and that's because lawmakers are paying attention to what is happening on tiktok because as we all know, the app has been under a ton of scrutiny this year. >> you know, one of the other things that is often said and you've reported on is just the control of tiktok, whether it is really controlled by the chinese, chinese government, what kind of access they have to this information, whether they're the ones that are, you know, pushing certain things on the algorithm, how much did that

come up in the conversation that you heard? >> so, as far as the creators, you know, they weren't raising those concerns so much but i think that we have seen those concerns raised very quickly by republican lawmakers who were grilling the coo of tiktok about this earlier this year so i think that tiktok is aware that these criticisms are absolutely putting them back in the hot seat and raising these questions again around, you know, where the engineers for this company and what influence could chinese ownership have of course, they have roundly denied there is any of this influence, but it doesn't look great and they're pushing back very hard. >> sapna, a fascinating story. i encourage everyone to read it. thank you this morning great to see you. >> thanks. when we come back on the other side of this, ray dalio

will be our guest and we'll talk u.s.-china relations he was at the nn wdierith president xi in san francisco. we'll discuss that and so much more when "squawk" returns in just a moment. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. same. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time i was on a work trip when only at sleep number.

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good morning stocks looking to lock in their longest weekly winning streaks in months. the futures, well, they're up so far in the premarket we will see. plus, bridgewater's ray dalio joins us for an exclusive interview. he attended wednesday night's dinner with president xi we'll ask him about that and his take on the markets. racers and gamblers are getting ready for what should be a wild weekend on the las vegas strip. we got a look at formula 1's half billion dollar gamble the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen we have a lot going on as becky

mentioned, ray dalio in just a moment take a look, though, u.s. equity futures, about 100 points higher on the dow just about now where the s&p 500 is up about 10 points, nasdaq up about 6 points treasuries, let's take a look at the ten-year and the two-year. here's where things stand. you're looking at the ten-year, 4.4% the two-year, 4.8% there joe? >> thank you, andrew broader markets on pace for solid weekly gains after a couple of mild inflation reports this week. for more on the inflation situation, and we'll touch on president biden's meeting with china's xi jinping, let's bring in daleep singh at pgin fixed income, also a former deputy national security adviser for international economics in the biden administration and i've asked a few people about, you know, expectations for yesterday, and what

actually -- what actually happened and like everything, we go from one to ten how was it what would you -- like a six and a half, seven or better for you? >> i don't know about the number, joe. and, look, i know people brush it off, but nobody should discount the importance of talking in a typical relationship let's not forget, chinese destroyer came within 150 yards of an american warship this summer chinese fighter jets have been buzzing within 20 feet of american pilots. so, guardrails are good. it is what responsible countries do but everybody knows that talking alone doesn't fix a broken relationship that's what we're left with. president xi incorrectly believes the u.s. is in structural decline and we're aiming to suppress china's ascend ans and that really triggers china's sense of aggrievement, harkens back to the century of humiliation. and the u.s., for its part, we see president xi as doubling down on suppression at home, and aggression abroad.

and we have stopped pretending there is any real hope of inducing china to converge toward our economic and political model. this is going to produce a honeymoon. i think the honeymoon will be measured in weeks. and perhaps as soon as the taiwan elections next january the gloves will be off again >> you gave it a two you didn't need to say it. that didn't sound good >> no, no. >> didn't sound good at all. we're talking again, but is there not going to be a military base near cuba no more spy balloons there is going to be no more whatever any of the aggressive moves in the south china sea do we get played >> if those are your expectations going in, there is a disappointment i think any realistic person never thought we were going to solve those problems in one conversation >> you got a standing ovation. you got a standing ovation from the ceos we looked like we were best

friends. are we getting played, daleep? is that a -- we're lulled into this, you know -- >> it depends what you mean by we i do think certain american ceos, their particular corporate interests are not aligned with the national interests the truth is china has not been saying by the same rules as us, that creates serious harm to trade affected communities, caused real damage to our political economy. china is trying to narrow our technological preeminence, challenging us in the indo-pacific and i think what you're hearing from the u.s. is we're happy to engage in this competition, we like our chances, we're going to bring our friends with us. and if china is going to insist -- if china does not play by the same rules, we'll include some protectionist measures as well to ensure it is a fair fight. that's not getting played. that's looking clear eyed at a competition that is going to be very difficult >> so the planet is a big play and definitely big enough for both of us to co-exist in

beautiful harmony. do you take him at his word? >> i wouldn't use those words. i would say -- >> he used those words should we take him at his word or do they still want to eventually supplant us as -- in the world order? >> i think it is clear from president xi's words that he sees it is now time -- he's done away with the deng xiaoping mantra we'll hide our strengths and bide our time. i think president xi believes china's rightful ascend ans is before us and he wants to exercise global hegemonic supremacy through technological means and he's playing by a different set of rules than we are and that's why this is going to be at times a very confrontational relationship the point of the meeting was let's make sure the competition and confrontation at times doesn't go off the rails because we have a responsibility to our people and to people all over the world to ensure we at least talk to each other and prevent

accidents, prevent miscalculations. when you have this kind of potential kinetic conflict in the south china sea, that is worthy of having a way to mitigate those risks, to manage potential crisis that's what a responsible country does. >> if we are on the cusp of a -- at least a -- i don't know, months or years of easing tensions, is it due to china's -- or president xi's problems with the economy and with real estate market, whatever you want to talk about, that makes china less formidable than it was? would it have happened if they had the growth that they were putting up from five years ago >> yeah, i think president xi needed this meeting because of some of the problems that you're referencing. they're dealing with a real demographic collapse they're still deleveraging from their credit binge back in 2010. and derisking is starting to eat away at their export market

share. you know the youth unemployment numbers in china, the risk to social stability are real. i think china, for its own reasons, needed to calm down the tensions and have a circuit breaker. but i don't think that's going to be measured in -- i think you mentioned months or years. i do think depending on the outcome of the taiwanese election we could be set for another round of escalation soon thereafter and per the u.s. elections next november. >> do you have a high degree of confidence in president biden and his administration to impress upon china they'll only accept so much, or do you agree with some of the criticism that we're, you know, probably way too, i don't know, like i said earlier, that we were actually played in that we're not taking a tough enough stance, not even close to a tough enough stance as far as pushing back >> joe, i think the

administration is doing the right thing. the diagnosis that was reached by the previous administration was correct, that china is not playing by the same rules and that they are seeking a form of hegemony in the region, the crown jewel of our economy is technology. and the trade restrictions have been kept in place but now there is a -- i think a much more strategic posture saying what are the foundational technologies that give us long-term growth and advance our national security objectives around those technologies there is a higher fence. and if capital travels with that technology like fdi, that also needs to be screened so you saw in the last quarter, for the first time in china's history, negative fdi influence. so, you know, the business secretary, the private sector is paying attention to what is happening in washington. i think we're on the right path to confronting this challenge. >> can you just fill in some of the color on the taiwanese elections, when they are, what

is it at stake, what could happen, what could it, you know, what could result from different outcomes over there? what are you talking about when is it >> january 13th. and the currently the lead in the polls is from the incumbent party, leans toward taiwanese independence, actually just this week, two of the opposition candidates formed a joint ticket the outcome is now unclear but there have been signals that if the independence leaning candidate wins, you could see beijing once again escalate along the lines of what we saw after speaker pelosi's visit, but going a bit further too. maybe drone incursions, attempts to interfere with the shipping that goes into and out of taiwan, possibly even some entry into taiwan's territorial waters and that could -- the risk is that could trigger an escalatory tit for tat, delicate political moment in the u.s.

>> yeah, because we're seeing a lot of that already, right, in terms of the going over the midline on the taiwan straits and there is already a lot of that and so that -- these are little baby steps toward a blockade potentially? >> well, look, i mean, these are the dry -- what you're describing, these are potentially dry runs i don't think china, for its own reasons, wants a full-fledged invasion of taiwan anytime soon. but they certainly want to test and want to see how far they can go and, you know, the u.s., taiwan, all of our allies in the region will need to find a way to respond in kind to show that, you know, these kinds of actions need to be -- need to be responded to with some type of firm response from our part too. but that's a very risky -- that's a very risky endeavor we have the ability to talk military af meetings this week. >> we're back to about a five, i

think. up here and then -- >> come on, joe. >> way down here now we're right in the middle. daleep, thank you for your time today. that was a lot of stuff. i'll be thinking about it all weekend long, which won't be very long as we know monday comes -- >> you are such a sourpuss happy friday, everybody. the very beginning of the eve of the weekend. >> over before we know it. suddenly it's monday. >> when we come back, we have a roundup of the week that was in retail and what investors can expect this holiday season and then bridgewater founder ray dalio will join us he attended the dinner gala with chinese president xi we'll ask him about that and the markets. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities experience, expertise, execution.

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time now for our roundup of the week that was in retail. courtney reagan joins us with

more on that front it has been a big week. >> most retailers beat expectations for the third quarter. when it comes to confidence for christmas, executives are kind of white knuckling it with most giving cautious holiday quarter forecasts and commentary shares have been mixed in reaction walmart and target executives noted consumers were spending closer to need and gap and roth are prudent with their guidance and in retailers have early holiday sales events, in october few are sharing much detail about early holiday trends walmart noted shoppers are responding to promotional events with some weakness before and after. data reflects this exact trend that both walmart and target beauty and health and wellness remain strong. but apparel is a mixed bag last quarter, many retailers called out weakness pointing to apparel as a weak category apparel remains soft for target,

but markedly improved from the second quarter it was mixed for macy's, but tjx said apparel remains very strong black friday is one week away and can serve as a chance for retailers to gobble up share from competitors as shoppers hunt for the best deals. walmart has been touting gaining share for several quarters now and data shows here that the percentage of target shoppers using walmart's app has been strongly outpacing the reverse since at least july of last year, which could point to only some of those gains coming from target shoppers that walmart has been talking about now, the important question now is whether this trend will continue in the most important quarter. >> one thing i did see is that beauty and health and wellness are still doing very well. what does that even mean >> obviously beauty is cosmetics, skin care, fragrance. health and wellness, a lot of it

has to do with consumable items, not necessarily totally pharmacy, but some of the everyday lotions, body washes, you know, some of the vitamins, all of that kind of thing and that's just an area that we have seen sort of really start to show strength during the pandemic and has not fallen back and so you see a retailer like macy's called out four or five straight quarters as one of the strongest if not the strongest category same thing for target. whether it was stores that have the ulta or don't have the ulta. ironically, it is also a category that we're seeing higher levels of shrink. but shrink really hasn't come up too much so far this quarter which obviously was our big buzzword last time around. target did say specifically that they are seeing a higher levels of shrink than last ear. i think that's the only one that we have heard so far we have a lot more coming on tuesday, of course >> courtney, thank you right now, want to bring in our next guest to talk about what we're learning about the

consumer spending. sandra campos is the former ceo and cnbc contributor and, sandra, what do you think about the health of the consumer if you were at a retailer now, at a designer, you would be doing what >> well, what everybody is doing, which is tightening their belts, making sure they're focusing on cash flow, operating expenses reductions, that's something that we're seeing across the board, improvements in gross margin. it is clear through everybody you talked about just now and whether it is walmart, whether it is gap, margins are improving, so being able to really control inventory, make sure that you're -- those are essential as we go into fourth quarter and the new year in 2024 >> is that something that investors should be lauding at this point like, look, you may be seeing less spend going on, you could

be concerned about the consumer. as long as you keep your inventories tight, as long as you manage it properly, it could be a good time for profits in this industry. >> i see it that way especially as we increase terms, we're reducing the inventory, there is less traffic. consumer is definitely more focused on discretionary spending, just for the things that they do want, whether that's trend items, you know, the sneaker, resale business, those are still going really strong and really well but people really focus on what they really need, whether it is the essentials or really special items. i think that's going to carry forward into the gift-giving time period as we look at, you know, sales have already started as you mentioned, they started in october but we're also going to see a lot more of that even in luxury sector but i do think that regardless, with company ceos and company management, focusing in on gross margins, focusing in on inventories being lean, while still having their stocks and their shelves full for

consumers, that's going to be important telltale sign as we go into 2024 and really just have overall improvements not just having sales for the sake of top line sales, but really having profitable businesses >> one thing that surprised me was what we heard from luxury this week. burberry had pretty surprising weakness and they pointed out it wasn't just china, it was also north america, where they saw that weakness is that the beginning of a turn, not just for the lower end customers who had pressure for a while because of inflation, but maybe high end shoppers are feeling the pinch too? >> high end shoppers are feeling the macro economic issues that we all see and are experiencing between wars and just general depression around what could be happening and where the world is today. so i think when you look at typically, you know, recession, recessionary times, luxury consumers are still spending and they have been spending. but i think right now we have a lot of additional macro economic issues that are really impacting

everyone to really think through exactly what they're spending and what they're spending it on. that said, there is some definite -- there is some areas still very strong when you mentioned earlier just from a beauty prestige beauty and math beauty and prestige now has 14% increase over last year. we're going to start also talking about gen alpha soon and that spend and -- >> that comes after gen z? circling back? back in the alphabet again >> apparently we are so that consumer is having a higher spend as well so we're going to soon start hearing about them and what they're going to be impacting. >> that is a new one to me i didn't know what came after gen z. like tropical storm season, going back and starting over >> how old are they? >> i don't know. how old are they that's news to me. >> the tween age i think it is really roughly 15 and below.

>> okay. >> gen z is getting older. we think about gen z, but gen z is like 24, 25-year-old age range. >> wow >> still good ones, the gen zs. >> some good gen alphas too. >> there's hope. we got a lot riding on them. >> spending early. >> thanks for joining us, sandra >> thank you have a great weekend coming up, a look at what is moving in the premarket and ray dalio, bridgewater founder and investor is going to join "squawk box. we'll be right back. we head to break, here is a check of the futures >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what holds the guinness world record as the most expensive man-made object? the answer when "squawk box" tus.rern ( ♪ ♪ ) who do you think taps out first?

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space station. its final cost will be over $100 billion. welcome back to "squawk box. i'm dominic chu. we'll start with this friday edition of morning movers with a check on shares of gap inc., which are surging right now. up 19% the parent company of retailers under its namesake brand, old navy, athleta, up after it reported much better than expected profits and a beat on revenues, also a better than expected sales growth that established store locations. that seemingly outweighing some cautious commentary from gap about the holiday shopping season shares up 18.5%. next up, airbnb and expedia, both on the move this morning, due to analyst commentary out of evercore isi bad news, airbnb down around 10,000 shares of volume after getting downgraded to in line from outperform, citing valuations the stock is close to the $136 target price with the lack of potential near term

catalyst expedia is actually getting upgraded to outperform from in line and the target price up to 200 bucks. it was 135 they cited amongst other things underappreciation of revenue growth and profit margin growth acceleration amidst the backdrop of global leisure travel demand. shares higher around 3%. 12,000 shares of volume. analog devices higher by 2% on just around 2,000 shares of volume the semiconductor company upgraded to overweight from equal weight at morgan stanley target price up to 225 from 176. they think that the end is in sight, not there yet, but in sight for the current down cycle in microcontroller units or mcus and the products are more insulated from potential downward pricing pressures analog pretty decent upside, 2%. few stocks to watch. back over to you >> okay, thank you, dom. still to come, after this, we're going to talk to ray dalio who joins us to talk about wednesday's apec gala dinner

with president xi. he was there he was -- he had that experience we'll talk about the topics, china's ambitions, the markets, inflation, interest rates and so much more. all that after this. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. warning civilians to clear out, while hamas forces them back. allowing in food and water, which hamas steals.

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welcome back to "squawk box. this morning, president biden met with president china's xi jinping for four hours earlier this week and said he made real progress after going an entire year without speaking. they agreed to call each other directly when needed our next guest was in attendance at wednesday's dinner gala with president xi joining us in an exclusive interview is bridgewater founder and cio, mentor, ray dalio ray, great to see you this morning. i think everybody would love your own readout if you will from that dinner we heard readouts from the meeting that took place between the president, some of the u.s. government officials making certain statements about what they saw happening but what did you see happening at that dinner

>> i'll tell you about the dinner just in a second. i think i just want to emphasize that, you know, i'm a markets guy, trying to think about the world ahead. and there are five main forces that are at work and they're interrelated and that is the debt money economic for us, the internal conflicts that we're having, particularly the populism left and right, the geopolitical that we're seeing, most importantly between the united states and china, then, of course, there is climate and its costs and number five is technology and so, i think we have to see that all interacting the dinner was mostly a gathering of old friends at a moment where there was stepping back of the risks of war i was there last in march. and at that time there was a

very clear risk of a military war. and i think that that really concerned both sides and there was a stepping back. i think that dinner had to do with relationships over a long period of time in my case, i started going there 39 years ago, they didn't have any money, i didn't go for money, i went for the relationship curiosity at first and then over a period of time my son, when he was 11, went to a chinese school because it was interesting, we einvolvolved and developed good relationships over that time, others did a lot of people had friendships with people who they were working together to help to develop relations, to help the economy and so on. so, it was sort of a gathering of chinese and americans who knew each other, and there was an element of warmth and an

element of relief that there was a stepping back from the bad risks of war nobody wants war, right? >> nobody wants war. let me ask you this. i want to get to monetary policy and interest rates and higher thinking about it. i know you've been thinking deeply and writing about new perspectives on where we are right now. in terms of the military risk, one of the conundrums appears to be, and it came out a little bit in the readout between the meeting that the president had with president xi, president biden and president xi, was that there still was very much on the table china's ambition to take over taiwan. maybe not by military force, but some other way and there is a big question of what the u.s. would do if that were to happen what do you think the risks are that that does happen now. and i don't know what kind of time frame we're now talking about, but also what western

companies and multinational businesses that do business in china would ultimately have to do if that were the case >> what i'm trying to share with you is a perspective that to some extent the chinese p perspective that there is a good back and forth, but to some extent taiwan was promised at the end of world war ii to be returned to china and everybody agreed on that during 1895, the japanese came in, took taiwan. the end of world war ii given back and everybody agreed there is one china and taiwan is part of china and that issue is a very, very important issue. it is a territorial issue that relates to china and very much a part of the relationships. if there is not a statement of

independence, if the united states doesn't say that we are -- that there is an independent taiwan, i believe that you're going to continue to see this issue be a thorny issue, a source of tension, but not something that is going to be beyond that source of tension. if the united states or other parties operated where there was a declaration of that, or that there were major military actions, then that would raise the temperature. there is, i do not expect that there would be any initiation on china's part tensions, of course. i think the whole environment, you know, what was the main point of what happened in that meeting between biden and xi the main point is that we're now in an environment of fierce

competition, which is different than being right at the brink of war. when they look down the abyss and think about war, literally, war, terrible, when they look down the abyss, there was a step back from that abyss, with the idea of a very fierce competition. now, this will be a chinese type of competition as well if you look at the history of the perception of war, they find that going into a military war, if you go into a military war, you must not have been very smart because you didn't win without going into a war and that is -- that game that starts with -- described with the art of war is a game in which there is a strategic operation. so, that game is still full on this is not a change in the basic structural issue of a rising power and existing power

and a struggle for who has what say. that will continue but fortunately the risks of a military war have been reduced >> let me ask you this, and i want to talk about the markets though how do you think about china as a national security threat to the united states? one of the things that is happening, even in the last 24, 48, 72 hours and we have seen it all over, there has been questions before this about tiktok, but now you're seeing videos on tiktok go viral of osama bin laden's letter, not just that is anti-semitic, but calling for the murder of americans across the board, the entire country and it is a remarkable thing and i think there is a lot of people sitting around saying what is going on here? social media, questions about social media writ large, but with tiktok specifically, one of the things and maybe conflated, maybe not, people say that is a social media platform that has so many eyeballs in america that

is ultimately controlled by the chinese. >> i think that we have to be careful, you and me and everybody, about what we really know and what we really don't know about those things. and we have to let it be handled by our government officials, probably who know a lot more about the intelligence of what is going on. i fear as much for our suspicions or our antagonisms leading to a conflict. so i can't speak knowledgeably of what is going on covertly i think that the war that we're going to see is going to be much more a covert war. and i think it is a responsibility of our leaders and the intelligence services to sus out what is real and what isn't real so i don't feel i personally can answer that question well.

i think we just have to be careful about going into a military war or a war that is so damaging, an economic war, in the form of, you know, as president biden says, what we -- what we want to not do is even decouple because if you decouple, the economic consequences of decoupling themselves that has to be dealt with, with knowledgeable leaders. the most important thing is that we're strong and we have good leaders. the issue is really going to be a domestic issue how strong are we? how well do we work together how productive how good is our intelligence services how good is the decision-making? that's the most important question if we're good together, so that really brings us to the domestic political and social issues that

are really going to determine how strong, healthy the united states is in dealing with those types of challenges. that will be of paramount importance. >> i do want to talk about our domestic economy and the markets. i think becky has a question for you. >> actually, leaning in that direction, you said the united states will be facing a debt crisis yields have changed pretty dramatically in the last week or so you still think that's the case? >> look, you have -- you have a change of 15, 25 basis points and so on. let's just go back to the basics and the big picture. first of all, let's take the bond yield the bond yield roughly speaking has got to be about what we

determine the expected inflation rate will be over the period of time that -- of course there is a question about that. that number probably is settling in to the vicinity of 3, 3.5%. that's the right number. there has to be above that a real interest rate in other words, for those who are creating holding debt, debt assets, they have to receive a return above the inflation rate, by something probably in the vicinity of 1.5%, 2% so that is going to get you in the vicinity of 4.5%, 5% interest rates and you're seeing the movement around that level. then there is the big question of the supply/demand for bonds in other words, the government produces acertain amount of bonds that are in light of size that is the equivalent of roughly the size of the deficit. that means they're going to have

to sell a lot of bonds okay and then we look at who are the buyers of those bonds and do they have an adequate appetite and that's a big risk because we have many who own those bonds have had losses in that. that's not just banks. that is central banks. that is japanese investors and so on. and so there is supply, demand issue. you'll have these wiggles around there, but those are the fundamentals that will drive it. so, as we look forward, we have a debt problem because you can't keep adding to debt faster than you add to income without that problem. so, we're seeing the need for the rise in real interest rates, so that the creditor gets an adequate return at the same time as we have a supply and demand balance. that's how it looks to me. what is happening in the economy is that a lot of money was sent out in the form of checks and the like, and went out to a lot

of people, and so there was -- the household sector did well. because the government sector did poorly, they got themselves in deeper debt, intentionally, so that the household sector and the business sector can be better off and then there is the rise in interest rates what happens from that is that that savings of money gradually goes down, and also the debt maturities as they roll forward gradually go up and create a squeeze. so there is an emerging squeeze happening. however, the -- because the unemployment rate is relatively low, and because the compensation levels have been relatively high, because of that set of circumstances, the household sectors' income has been good. you have a seconder in the household sector, hence the economy as a whole, and i'll include the business sector in

that, in which by and large the financial transfer of wealth from the government -- the private sector, that allows that to happen. so that is a formula and a punch line, i'm sorry i'm taking too long, that is a formula for a gradually weakening economy, not a big break in the economy, a slowing of that economy, and i think that's what we're seeing and as a result of that, that's what you're seeing in the bond market as there is a bit of a easing within that >> play this out a little bit longer, which is to say where do you think interest rates are a year from now, you know, on a very straight up basis, but then even longer than that, you're talking about the debt problem that we have in this country that is becoming a main feature of debate and a topic, of course, in the presidential election and what is going to happen come november 2024.

and beyond >> as far as the question of where the rates are, i think that the -- most likely i think the rates structure is going to be staying at its level, perhaps slightly less, but there is a range of uncertainty around that, having to do with the supply/demand question we're now at a period of time where the supply of bonds to be sold will be start hitting the market and now we have to see the demand issues of that and that will be around there. i think that probably in the vicinity of, you know, i would say somewhere in the vicinity of relatively flat. i don't think there is going to be any important change in the fed policy, other than maybe a slight easing as the economy slows down i think the thing to realize is that the economy will likely weaken, in other words, growth

rate going to something close to zero, plus or minus, maybe 1%. and with that, that exerts a slight downward pressure on interest rates at the same time the supply issue becomes an important issue. the second part of your question, i forgot the second part what was that? >> just how much -- the longer term damage of having this enormous amount of debt, it is playing into the political debate, but it sounds to me you're also arguing that if we're going to have a soft landing, that maybe people are going to feel more comfortable holding as much debt as we do and their rates are not going to blow through the roof. >> no, i think we're talking about the short-term as very distinct from the longer term. the short-term we just talked about. the longer term is that we are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service. and there is a process by which

when you keep having debt grow faster than income growth, that means that you have debt service encroaching on your spending that's the same for the government as it is for us and as that happens, and you want to keep spending at the same level, there is the need to get more and more into debt. and the way that works, it is like a -- it accelerates we are at the point of that acceleration, which creates the supply and demand problem. and it is made worse by the other issues that we're talking about. the internal political issue, the internal social conflict issue there is something that is affecting foreign demand for bonds. for about 40% of our debt is sold to foreigners and so there is a concern of the american politics, of the controlling of this debt crisis,

and these types of things. so we come back to the same basic question how good -- how strong are we going to be? when we talk about strong, what i mean is also economically strong and economically strong means financially strong that means it is just a basic thing. financially strong means do you earn more than you spend and do you have a good income statement as a country do we have a good income statement. and do we have a good balance sheet? more assets than we have liabilities. the worse that gets, the more we're going to have that long-term problem, and it is just, you can see it in the numbers. it is just a matter of numbers we are near that inflection point. >> ray, before you go, i did have two other quick questions one is an artificial intelligence question. i noticed that bridgewater increased its stake in nvidia. you're not running all of it, but you have a major role obviously in the company still bridgewater, that is do you have a take on a.i.

investment and do you have a take on its impact on the economy? some people think it is fabulous in so many ways in terms of productivity others think that it may be so fabulous that actually that no one is going to need or have to have a job and that's going to create its own backlash. achlt executing a game plan. because of all that background and the spes fig specifying of those things, question relate to

generative ai. it is something. there is no doubt about it but there is definitely true that it's a two-edge sword it's going to replace a lot of people and the jobs. much those who invent it and those that benefit the most from it will, like today, you have technology and, you know, you have unicorns and they get rich. that is a spoeshl political question of how the pie is going to be divided. this relates to the geopolitical issues and political issues because it's a tool for war. in other words, it's a very powerful tool that can be used either to create the most wonderful things or also to be used to do the most terrible

harms. >> i want to thank you for joining us this morning. we look forward to seeing you again very, very soon. thanks apectepria it. squawk box coming back with more in just a moment. [ "i'll be seeing you" by the five satins ] ♪ ♪ i could use a little help. yeah, there's a lot of risk out there. huh ♪♪ hey, is this thing hard to learn? nah, it's easy. huh. you know, i think i'm going to ride it home. good thing you chose u.s. bank to manage and grow your money.

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the big f-1 race taking place. squawk box will be right back after a quick pit stop

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the count down is on for the big formula 1 race in las vegas. the event tracting plenty of attention and -- attracting plenty of attention and more money to sin city. contessa brewer joins us now a baseball team is coming too, contessa >> it's so exciting. i just want to say, they would

really prefer that given this backdrop you stop calling it sin city they wantthis to be sports city when you look at f-1, the last segment of visitation to recover in las vegas post pandemic is international travel and who are f-1 fans they're international travelers. europe, middle east, asia. and they're coming here to see the first f-1 down the las vegas strip. and the first one in vegas in many, many years >> certainly people who don't even speak english when you say las vegas, their eyes light up but they haven't necessarily considered coming here formula 1 is one of the best reasons to do that but it also opens the audience to, you know, an affluent audience around the world and kind of shows the maturation of our city >> consider this, f-1 fans are more affluent. they are far more likely to

travel than general sports fans. and the forecast is for a $1.3 billion impact on the local economy. vegas business and government leaders are counting on the transition from sin city to sports city, as i said considering the spending, since this year's chance, wnba vegas aces launched in 2018. when visitors shelled out $824 per trip this year researchers put that number at $1,156 nearly a 50% increase. and, yeah, before you yell back at the tv, there's other things than sports driving that, post pandemic pent up demand, inflation, there is adelle but there is also the stanley cup champs, las vegas knights. there is the raiders they're 5-5 record and as you mentioned here, joe, the mlb owners just voted unanimously to bring the a's here so professional baseball the chamber is using the big

events to woo big business the f-1, super bowl. the sponsors are being wined and dined and coaxed into considering nevada as a prime destination for relocation thereby, diverse fiifying the economy away from gaming, travel and leisure. and they have gaming, travel, and leisure down pat as you can see behind me. >> i saw you drinking out of a shoe last night. that was pretty cool. >> you were doing that again >> yeah. i mean, i didn't -- i didn't bring one with me. but i -- one, i never drank out of a shoe before but i felt like a winner when i did it apparently that's who does it. and they put it on a laniard so you can take it home and wear it i don't know >> it was cool i was impressed. >> yeah. >> contessa, thank you. >> okay.

>> we're going to reset. it is just about 8:00 a.m. on the east coast you're watching "squawk box. we have a lot of big stories applied material is facing u.s. criminal investigations now. potentially skirting american export restrictions into chinese chipmaker smic that is according to a reuters report sources and the chip making equipment was manufactured in massachusetts and sent to a south korean subsidiary and then forwarded on to smic in a statement applied materials saying first disclosed in october of last year that it had been subpoenaed for information related to that shipment they say they're cooperating with the government. we'll be following that story. amazon dialing up the pressure on employees who aren't following the company's return to work guidance according to a post an an internal amazon site seen by cnbc, staffers not following the rules, they may not get promoted amazon currently requires employees to work from the office at least three days a week

and texts between iphone and friend's android may get easier. announcing plans to adopt a messaging standard next year that will smooth the testing experience between iphones and running those google's operating system this is first reported from nine to five mac. they said the new feature will rollout this year. that will be major change and shift for apple. we'll follow that story as well. joe? >> i don't want them as a -- if it comes back green, i stop talking to them. >> well, that's the thing. it may come back blue. or maybe everything will go to one color. i don't think we know what it's going to mean. the divide is very different by the way, it may -- part of this is may be about regulators, right? regulators have been looking at apple for a long time. about how they're trying to keep a mote around the business some call it a monopoly. this may be a step -- >> i shouldn't judge android

people you're right, andrew if they want to use -- you don't have to use apple products right? i have to be more open minded. don't you wonder sometimes when it comes back green. what are you -- what kind of phone do you have? no >> by the way, joe, that's a very domestic view just so you know >> i know. >> in the united states, there is a huge market share >> i never do that usually >> it's a very young view, too you know, i think it's -- i think it is under 30 or something. you know, 70 or 80% market share. remarkable in the united states. you get out, obviously, out of the united states, and it's a very different story that's why whatsapp has a lot of use. >> keeping me young, andrew. let's talk more about the markets. another young guy this year, the hedge fund pioneer ray dowley, here's what he had to say about the current state of things.

>> i don't think there's going to be any important change in the fed policy other than maybe a slight easing as the economy slows down i think the thing to realize is that the economy will likely weaken in other words, the growth rate going to something close to zero plus or minus, maybe 1%. and with that, that exerts a slight downward pressure on interest rates at the same time, the supply issue becomes important issue. >> joining us to talk about the markets, bank of america vice chairman and head of investment solutions. a lot happened in the last couple weeks interest rate wise and inflation wise does that change the way you view the world, would you say? >> it's interesting, joe we have been anticipating a year end rally.

there can only be one of two catalysts or both. either surprise in earnings or rates coming down. we know what we got which is rates coming down. but what's interesting now is where do we go from here michael heartnet of b of a global research does the fund manager survey every -- periodically what is interesting is the consensus is now firmly embrace the idea that rates are going lower. inflation is going lower the economy will soft land that happens to be our view, too, by the way. and not that consensus is necessarily going to be wrong, but it now creates risk. if we don't see these things unfold over the coming months, they could see a blip in the action >> does that -- sorry, it doesn't guarantee we go to new highs. sounds like we're getting everything we want >> it's playing out well we saw 100 basis-point move in rates from july until november

and then we peaked at 502 on a ten-year after chairman powell's comments, we went from 502 to had 41 41 on the ten-year that is a 10% decline in yields over a very short period of time we're seeing a lot of whipsawing around you know, big reactions to near term data points we think that will happen. when you have cross currents in the markets and the economy, people tend to overreact at times to the very near term. it's like driving in a fog, right? you kind of get close to the windshield and react to what you're seeing immediately. then the longer-term trends will become more obvious. then you'll see the sustained move, that move is. >> we haven't had new highs in a while in the averages. that's the turning and consolidating you expect after a period of zero interest rates? maybe you think there is some, i don't know, paid a lot of things

forward? there was some days of reckonning -- have we done enough now is there enough pain can we go to new highs or are we not going to be in another secular bull until the $33 trillion gets addressed? >> there are three risks that kept the markets in that trading range of 4200 to 4600. obviously, rates, which we talked about second thing is the whole geopolitical side. ukraine and the mideast. and then the third thing is, you know, you basically had the reality of a macro economic slowdown you'll see it in the fourth quarter this year for the u.s. and well into next year. that created an oversold position then you had the catalyst of declining rates. now we've seen huge jumps. you had the nasdaq is up about 10% in november alone. s&p 500 up is around 7,600 you

-- around 7.6% we think if things play out as the consensus now expects them to, if inflation continues to cool because the economy cools but w but we don't go into recession, we think s&p 500 earnings can grow 6% next year. that will get you to 237 as the economy starts to bottom, we think we'll see growth slow to .5% but then the foundation for the next sustained bull market in equities is the next sustained growth in earnings we think that will come -- start to become more evident second half of '24. >> we could hit new highs next year >> we believsoe >> keith, thank you. we'll be right back. we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we have a look at the top market movers what you checking out? >> becky, let's kick things would have this friday edition of "morning movers" with alibaba. they're down by 2.75%. just about a million shares of premarket volume for the u.s. listed shares. that is a 9% drop yesterday due

to news that the company call the amazon of china is ditching plans to spin off the cloud computing division the stock shaved around $20 billion worth of value off alibaba's market cap they did blame u.s. export restrictions on advanced computer chips for one of the reasons why they're not going to kind of complete that spinoff. alibaba, again, building on yesterday's losses to the down side again on the earnings front, shares of bj's wholesale club down 5% to 6% 30,000 shares of volume. the membership warehouse club, costco competitor, sam's club competitor reported better than expected profits on revenues in line with consensus. bj's did lower the full-year forecast for sales growth if you exclude gasoline sales it offered a more cautious outlook for the sales during the current all important holiday shopping quarter the shares are down 5% and we cap things off with a look at roadblocks

140,000 shares of volume they upgaded the video game to a pure perform they think that roblox's investor day presentation earlier this week offered more color and insight into the company's potential for advertising opportunities. it also allowed for more confidence in future bookings and profit margin growth overall. roblox shares up 1.5% on an analyst call >> thank you coming up after this, another black eye on elon musk's ex-tech giant. a report finding that there were spots and others corporate giants placed next to -- there were lots of spots all over x with nazi content next to these ads. we're going to talk about x's leadership and how many more strikes the company can afford to rack up and what comes next stay tuned

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welcome back, everybody. ibm pulling ads from elon musk's x after a report found that ads replaced alongside content promoting hitler and the nazi party. they also said it found ads from apple, oracle and xfinity that

is owned by cnbc's parent company comcast. in a statement to cnbc, ibm said they have seazero tolerance for hate speech and they suspended all x advertising as they look into an unacceptable situation a comcast spokesperson says the company is investigating and an x spokesperson told cnbc the accounts that were posting hateful content would no longer be monetizable there is no place for anti-semitism anywhere in the world. she called it ugly and wrong that came 24 hours after elon musk agreed with the post on x that said jewish people have been pushing hate gets whites. joining us for this latest black eye for x is eric desenhall. you're a crisis management guru. what do you do, eric >> you have to diagnose what it is that is happening here. number one, you have the first

variable, you have a jewish community in america that believes it is in physical peril for the first time since world war ii number two, you have extensive documentation. you can go on instagram or tiktok right now and see people boldly making anti-semitic statements without fear of sanction these things are being merchandised into universities and into companies and being -- and asking these institutions why aren't you doing anything? this is a tough thing to respond to and number three, i think there is this on going career death watch for elon musk. has he finally gone too far? and the answer for 52 years has been no. there has not been any sanction. so in terms of your question, what to do, number one, a gut check. does elon musk personally feel the way i'm sure a lot of his executives do that there is danger here?

there is danger to x there is danger to tesla there is danger to spacex. his reaction this is more of the same if that is the case, he will continue if they -- if he personally does feel peril, he will have to face what every other company faces which is the issue of do you apologize? when do you apologize? when do you establish rules and policies to prevent this sort of thing? but there is no sign really that's where they are yet. zblfr that's interesting the response comes from the ceo when the ire is directed towards elon musk. maybe that is your answer right there. for now, the answers come from the ceo. >> well, i think that's right. one of the problems working with a client like elon musk, and to be clear, he's not my client, you're dealing with people whose life experience is different than the 7 billion rest of us. their life experience is when everybody says you're wrong and

you're out of your mind is they are consistently right what goes up continues to go up how do you advise somebody like this it's very difficult. so what you have is the people around that person trying to dive in front of the bullets to take it. which we don't know whether that will work just yet it worked for 52 years, which is musk's lifespan. we'll see what happens now i don't think this issue is going away soon. >> okay. so what do advertisers do in this environment we've seen the steps that ibm has taken. what about other advertisers they've been caught in a back and forth too when they have pulled ads in the past elon musk has kind of gone after them for what they've done >> well, i have been spending a lot of time on calls dealing with these issues with corporations and universities. and the answer about what they do is different. if you have a lot of business in the middle east, you are seeing

a lot of hemming and hawing. there is a lot of both sides there is two sides to every story. of course, there is two sides to every story. it's just that there's more two sides to every story when the is issue of israel and american jews are involved. you don't see this happening on race issues and gender issues that there are two sides but i'm also seeing companies doing things like a lot of internal communications. town halls where they discuss these issues other people are not saying anything and quietly directing their people to pull ads but not announcing they are doing so and by the way, it often works quietly doing things to avoid provocation often works better than announcing this wonderful deed you have done to cope with something. >> companies that have a lot of business in the middle east, i would say companies here in the united states have a lot of pressure on them too

it's been a little surprising to see how much of an angry issue this is here seeing the remarks that have been put up speaking out against october -- speaking out in favor of some of the attacks that were taken on to october 7. >> it is shocking. i was simply giving you the kind of variable that's are addressed. one thing that i see is that companies feeling if they put out a message that both angers jewish people and muslims, that is a success when they put out statementos or puts out a statement that angers other that, is a failure you're seeing a lot of this both sidesism it is interesting to see i've seen this over a four decade career. why is it that when someone makes a vaguely insensitive

racial or gender oriented comment severs -- ties are sev severed. but when you deal with jewish issues, since they're not a minority, they're and elite you can push it more but what is making this different is you're now seeing people taking in instagram posts and facebook posts into companies and saying, why did you respond this way why are you not responding to this it is putting companies in a very tough position. and they are beginning to respond because they cannot answer that question successfully >> responding more forcefully. >> the whole idea of safe space is and microagression. i can go back over the past five years and show you the most absurd things that supposedly

were offensive in the lowest common denominator is always people are afraid to not honor someone's safe space about the most ludicrous things. >> not on this >> on this, it's like -- it's not just a little bit. you say get a little more leeway this is -- this is like going from a bb gun to anatomic bomb why? why it is like that? >> i think there is a difference -- one thing that i often write about is there are -- in any controversy, you have villains, victims and vindicators am right now you're seeing a binary construct where there are only villians and victims. the there are only oppressors and oppresses. if if you have someone that is perceived to be the oppressor, there is nothing bad you can possibly do to them. the perception is they can take it or they deserved it this is why companies are responding and people are

responding how many people do you think would be comfortable being filmed making racist statements, making comments about women? i don't think that they would be willing to be filmed >> can i -- eric, can i ask a question of you and maybe joe can even speak to this as well part of the larger conversation, joe mentioned this idea that certain types of speech were shut down before and, you know, joe talked about elon musk being his hero because, you know, now twitter is -- or x is this open free space for free speech. i've spoken. i think you've spoken before how actually the platforms cannot be and businesses actually have a responsibility to actually monitor this thing in a real way. >> of course they do >> the question is how do you square the two ideas at the same time because there is this -- to me, at least, there is a twisting thing going on here that i don't understand.

>> look, nobody really likes free speech. i like my free speech. i don't like your free speech. my free speech is noble and moral. your free speech is way out of line and you see that if you had a professor or if you had a company executive making a certain type of statement, they would be gone in three seconds that is not the case now so, free speech is something we all wink at. i think a lot of what you have to deal with here is perceptions of who has strength and who is weak when bart simpson push mrs. bu -- mr. burns in the swimming pool, it's funny when mr. burns pushes mr. simpson in the swimming pool, it's mean. this is the syndrome operating here and why it's so difficult these are now brains have been rewired on campuses to evaluate issues in this oppressor/oppressee way and companies are navigating that

with a lot of pain n their hearts, they know there is a lot of hypocrisy in their hearts, they know they don't really support free speech >> eric, we went from -- i mean for me with twitter, you were allowed to talk about a wuhan lab. you were not allowed to talk about hunter biden laptop. those are the things that i'm talking about. now, i'mnot saying you leap to you know, all of a sudden airing everything my point was that the lowest common denominator for any other gender, any other -- for gender or any race issue is there was zero tolerance and it wasn't that it wouldn't be there. you would be canceled for the rest of your life. these people are not even getting canceled the thought of it getting canceled for saying my glorious martyrs of hamas on the side of a college building and they're doing nothing. one person got -- one person got arrested in that demonstration that didn't even make "the

washington post" except in the metro section. >> well, what we are seeing is very wealthy donors, the likes of bill ackman who have had enough they're going into universities presenting this type of data and saying, why is this okay and, by the way, my 50 million -- my $100 million is going to vanish. a lot of the billionaires, i'm not saying ackman personally on this, a lot of billionaires have been funding campus activity, at least ignoring it. >> no doubt. >> where that makes this okay. now suddenly, it's not okay because you're seeing the dividend >> eric, thank you for joining us today >> happy to. >> "squawk box" will be right back r goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal.

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli here live with the breaking news of this friday morning. a wild week. housing starts for the month of october, expected to be in the neighborhood of 1,350,000, seasonally adjusted units comes in a bit better than expected. 1,372,000 and a subtle revision lower in last month. this is the best level since july but it does continually

underscore that if you look at where we were just several months ago, we were near 1 1.6 million. we downgraded a bit. on the permit side, 1,487,000, also better than expected. that will be the best number only since august. permits are running significantly stronger just consider that last month our 1,541,000 on permits has been revised -- excuse me, two months ago, we had 1,541,000 on permits. that was the best number going all the way back to october of '22. we see that permits are doing better starts are lagging a bit both have improved this week, or at least this month for the readings i think that's something optimistic you know, interest rates obviously have dropped significantly since that outside technical signal said they would. but the one day we reached 5%, the 23rd of october, so as interest rates fall, maybe some

of the numbers will be a bit more responsive. andrew, back to you. >> rick, thank you for that. i want to get straight over to diana olick who joins us with more >> andrew, this optimism that rick is talking about is really in the number. when you talk about mortgage rates, the numbers are for october. and october we started the month at about 7.5% on the 30-year fixed. it shot up over 8% and held very high during the month. the expectation might have been that we see starts and permits come down. we really didn't now most of the strength in this number i will say is in multifamily. because that's a total number that rick just gave you. single family starts are basically flat permits up .5% starts up .5%. but the fact that they didn't come down is really important. i think the reason you're seeing that is because the builders are just benefiting so much from the fact that there is no supply on the existing home market and because they have able to buy down those mortgage rates. when you talk to the builders and earnings reports, they're

saying they're buying down the rates to about 5.5%. maybe they're not as sensitive to the higher mortgage rates than the existing home side of the market and there is optimism that continues construction, we hear it from the builders, earnings reports continue to show increases in new orders and, you know, growth year-over-year. it's benefiting from that existing home side and we did start to see those rates come down this month. what's going to be really interesting is next month as we start to see what the builders think about lower interest rates heading more towards 7% than 8%. of course, we still don't know what we're going see on the existing side as in more supply. andrew >> okay. anyou. "squawk box" coming back a lot more in just a moment. and actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus special financing. shop for a limited time. only at sleep number. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools,

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welcome back to "squawk box. we heard housing starts grew 1.9% in october. joining us now for more on the state of the sector and what we can see next year, ivy zellman you were on "squawk box" -- we shouldn't talk here, should we back when you were at solomon brothers >> yes it's been a long time. >> then you started your own company. >> yes, 2007

>> 2007. >> it's been a while >> still interested in housing >> yeah. i love housing >> so these numbers, listening to diana, a lot of cross currents rates are definitely higher. but her point was that some of the new home builders seem less sensitive than -- they're still building away. we never -- the supply issue is still with us. they can do this and expect to sell things at these rates they're not being hurt by that >> well, i mean, overall, the builders have had more resilient sales. part of that is also they're really offering great value to the consumer by giving mortgage rate buydowns. that's enabling the buyer to have less stress on affordability. so they're buying with rates down as much as two points and that's obviously helpful they're offering incentives. and they have product. and while they're providing that incentive and that kcould impact

margins, there is not a lot of existing inventory >> we've seen rates come down. when do we see -- is that going to be enough to get existing sales going again? will people feel better about -- has there been a lull because of the rise of rates at this point? >> absolutely. i mean, existing home sales are right now probably at the lowest since the gfc if you look at four million roughly existing home sales as a percent of house shoho households i would say that rates today, the average of homeowners is more than 80% or below 5%. you have almost half below 4%. when you start looking at that, we need a lot further decline in rates to reignite the existing home market. i think -- >> nobody wants to move. >> yeah. disincentive to move >> and mortgage below 3% or 4% >> right >> so this isn't going to work itself out any time soon

you think 2024 flat? >> yeah. we're looking at flat. i think the new home market is down slightly. but with respect to kind of what unsticks the market, i don't know i think you've got the, you know, risk of distress looking out further. you kind of look at the aging population that would help move some people out. vacancies would rise >> 2026 -- >> it's much better in 2025. and you are already, in your business, you have to be able to make determinations about something that far off >> well, we try. >> yeah. and much better for 2025 a rebound even >> '25, we're looking for reacceleration for existing home sales. only up 7% it still would be on a relative basis supremely depressed levels >> when does the shortage of just new homes or even existing homes, when does that -- how does that finally work itself out? and what year is that?

>> i mean, the problem is that land prices have been accelerating there's been no letup in land. inflation continues to rise. so with respect to affordability and providing more affordable housing, without any government support, developers just can't pass over returns to provide enough housing that is needed. the multifamily market right now is seeing deceleration in rents because of supply that is coming to market. and that's putting -- it will provide consumers some relief. >> you want to know if we have the figures. >> how are the numbers there >> i don't know. i was listening. i didn't memorize everything >> we were look forg ing for a decline. it doesn't pencil for them to start multifamily construction and that eventually there is a million units in backlog that is the highest since the 1970s. so over the next two years, those units complete and come to market, it's going to continue

to put pressure on lease rates which ultimately with starts plummeting, that will allow for reacceleration and starts. but for right now, i think starts are going to remain depressed in multifamily we think there is an oversupply. >> and home improvements crappy? >> it's decelerating and weakening. from what our surveys show us, we're below where we were in 2019 we saw beyond normalization pre-p pre-pandemic >> so you say buy immediately, whether it is the -- >> within housing? >> i think it's a pretty tough time right now we had such a boom if you look at where the consumer's wallet, you know, their spending was so significant. they call it the honey to-do list, everything we were doing locked up in home. we're seeing more while it is shifting to other areas, whether you talk about homspitality, travel, service. it's not in the housing market as a priority.

>> rates go up, it's bad for housing. >> yeah. >> thank you >> thanks for having me. >> still to come, we'll ask oil expert what is driving the recent big declines thate' wve seen in crude oil. stay tuned we'll be right back. [phone: starting route.] technology helps us navigate to work.

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you know carl is the only front man you need. (phone rings) oh, i gotta take this, carl. it's schwab. schwab. (feedback rings) have a choice in how you invest with schwab. >> welcome back to "squawk box." we have breaking news from a key fed official we want to get straight over to steve liesman. he has that news >> hey, andrew yeah, boston fed president grappling with a monetary policy this morning that people don't

talk about that much what does the fed mean when it says maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal how should that change policy? how can the fed which is one interest rate tool address a problem like the african american unemployment running 2% above white unemployment and in what you would call a historically tight labor market? should it affect policy? she doesn't give us an answer. doesn't solve the problem. she does note a tight labor market is not inflationary if labor supply increases persistently high unemployment, they says, reflect an underutilization of labor resources and some but not all of the problems are problems of the fiscal side, not to be addressed with monetary policy, necessarily. the fed's dilemma, how do you run policies with the maximum number of people can get jobs, be employed without creating inflation? the goals are a conflict in the short run. but price stability creates the best backdrop for full employment in the long run i will say this is a topic that is boiling under the surface

among fed observers. some said the fed should get rid of this inclusive language saying it may have played a role in letting the fed be -- the economy run hotter and causing inflation to spike i have a chance to talk to her about this at this conference on rethinking full employment later this morning i'm also going to ask her about this, guys take a look at the charts showing that no more rate heights are expected rate cuts are expected as soon as -- i don't know what you want to call it -- march and may and whether that is the right call andrew >> steve, it's fascinating we're going to look forward to that conversation. appreciate it. meantime, i'm going to send it over to becky. >> andrew, thanks. in an oh-ed week, they say while the market seems calm, despite the israel-hamas war, nothing garn sees this will last dan joins us right now he is the is vice chairman of s & b global and author of "the new map c: energy, climate and h

clash of the nations". we saw oil prices drop 5%. that is a bit surprising given the backdrop what makes you think this won't last what is the next thing you're watching for >> three things at work. becky, if you look at it now, oil is literally about $9 lower than it was the day before hamas invaded israel that tells you there is no geopolitical premium, fear premarketup in the price at all. and three factors are at work. number one is supply the incredible growth of non-opec plus oil led by the united states which is today producing more oil than any country has ever produced in history. and there's brazil and canada. second reason for it is that the markets are focused on the economy and worried about the economy. thirdly, the oil exporters are, you know, arab oil exporters are not interested in using oil as a weapon they're interested in economic development. those are factors there. as long as the war doesn't spread, they're focused on the

economic factors >> how does opec react to that >> i think opec has a problem. it's going to meet the weekend after thanksgiving and it's looking at prices below the level that they want to do the they've already cut. will they cut more or will they just sort of say let's get through the first quarter of weakness and see where we are in the second part of the year? but this is -- these prices are not what they intended >> and i guess detroit manned pic -- the demand picture is the important thing in this. slowing demand while the economy is strong here, we're not seeing the same inflationary push that we've seen before. >> i think that's right. and china reopening was a big factor on the oil. china is only going to reopen once it's not going to reopen again so demand next year will be more tempered you'll have this continuing buildup of supply that really wasn't anticipated a year ago by

many people. >> but you get back to the point where you say this calm might not last is that your base case scenario or is that an outlier of potential of something that could happen >> i'm thinking in terms of base case and probabilities there have been something like 50 50 barrages by iranian militias on u.s. forces in syria and iraq since october 17th and so, the question is, will there be some assault, some barrage on oil infrastructure in the persian gulf that's the key thing 21 million barrels of oil passes through the strait of hormuz and the country who has the most to worry about is the country who's been visiting the united states this week, xi jinping, because china imports half of its oil through the strait of hormuz and imports virtually all the iranian oil that now comes through the strait of hormuz >> that's interesting.

i hadn't put that connection together you think that's part of the reason that xi jinping is -- >> well, i think that, you know, that they have problems in their economy, which was demonstrated by that outreach to all the ceos in san francisco, so to have a oil spike disruption is not something that the chinese economy needs. it's benefitting from u.s. sanctions on russia, iran, and venezuela, because right now, it's getting cheaper oil >> dan, your call, again, back to probabilities, if you don't want to call it base case, fine, if you get back to possibilities, what would you say the beginning of the next year, where do you think things will stand january 1st >> well, i think january 1st, i think we'll be in -- still probably in a weak period because that's when demand goes down we still see, over the year, at this point, i would say that we still see oil averaging next year in the kind of mid-80s, but with all these uncertainties, because, you know, who predicted

october 6th where the world would be on october 7th? >> that's true again, though, people are looking to try and figure out what the next question is. is supply just going to be the overwhelming issue with all of this, the idea that the united states can now produce so much that that's going to take us out of some of those higher risk factors? >> it's the united states combined with brazil, canada, and guyana, which is the factor in the market. and at this point, we do see that production continue to increase we don't see the u.s. increasing by a million barrels a day next year, which it did this year, but maybe 4 or 500,000 barrels a day. but that, you know, that's what's -- if you go to basically supply and demand, that's the key factors is growth of non-opec plus oil being greater than the increase in demand. >> dan yergin, very difficult to see how we got to this point in the oil markets, but i guess for now, we'll take it thank you for your time. have a good weekend. >> thanks. coming up, we're going to

get you ready for the opening bell on wall street. little more than 30 minutes away the futures right now, strong on the dow. nasdaq, off a little bit a reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily pod podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app

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welcome back to "squawk box. we are a little more than half an hour away to the opening bell joining us to talk markets is chief co-investment strategist at john hancock investment management i get the sense that you think despite the market doing quite well in the next couple weeks here that maybe we're in for a harder landing on the other side of it. >> investors have a lot to be grateful for, andrew, going into thanksgiving week here, and to that point, we have had great earnings growth. we're up about 4%, q3 earnings, 80% beat rate. that's great we've got inflation coming down. we've got the fed likely on hold they're not likely to raise rates. but being grateful doesn't mean taking it for granted. right now, the consensus is now overwhelmingly soft landing. we've got a higher multiple on the market than we started the year, about 19 times forward pe

on the s&p 500, and that's embedding 11% earnings growth next year. so, what we're really trying to do is focus on higher quality businesses across the u.s. equity market. technology's been a call for us throughout the course of the year and higher quality industrials, primarily in the midwest, but we've got to be careful here, not taking for granted and having a risk management approach to the equity market. >> so, i think what you're seeing is you think the market's coming down from here? or is that not what you're saying >> we think it chops around until we see a potential recession. calling a recession, andrew, this year, has been exceptionally challenging. i have been wrong in calling it a bit earlier in what we're just trying to do in terms of positioning, you know, we don't get traded on calling the economy. we get graded on calling the markets. we've been underweight small cap. we've been underweight international. we've been only holding on to the higher quality parts of the market we think it could come down next year into another bear market, if you will, a more recessionary

bear market. we've looked at that as an opportunity to buy lower quality stocks like small caps we're not there yet. we are holding more defensive positioning because we think it could go down into next year >> let's just walk through, if you're going to -- put yourself in a defensive posture, what are the most defensive stocks out there? >> for us, it's all about strong balance sheets if you need capital right now, it is really expensive, so whether it's your issuing debt, issuing equity, it's tough so, we're looking for strong balance sheets for companies that don't need capital. there's a lot of nonprofitable businesses in the small cap space, for example nearly 50% of the russell 2000 index is not making money, and they need money to survive we're_weighting that we're overweighting good balance sheets, strong roi earnings, tough to come by, but that quality factor to us is the best way to stay defensive >> by the way, how do you think

about where interest rates are going to be as a function of all of what you're talking about >> we think they peaked around 5%, but they're probably chopping around until we see more material weakness in the labor market so, if initial jobless claims continue to rise, which this week, they did start to tick up, or the unemployment rate starts to rise, we think yields are going to crash lower, frankly. we're at a consensus, thinking yields could come down more next year they could be very competitive the bond market relative to the equity market. but to us, within equities, you've got to find the best companies you can to be able to wade this out because bonds are going to look pretty attractive if treasury yields fall. >> somewhat of a contrarian take, at least for this week matt, we appreciate your time and perspective. have a great weekend, and happy thanksgiving to you. let's have a quick check on the markets right now. green on the screen. you're looking at the dow up about 110 points the s&p 500, up about 9 points the nasdaq, though, looking down but down just marginally, guys >> yeah, here we go.

i was looking at it, and i think 4.37% or something, the lowest level since september, is where the yields touched earlier this morning, but that has been the story for sure, just watching what's happened with these yields >> well, between now and monday, we'll see what happens happy friday, everybody. have a great weekend >> you too join us on monday. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange premarket is steady as the bulls try to add a third week to this 10% move off the october lows. bond yields are cooperating somewhat ten-year drops below 4.4% early this morning we'll watch the closes today our road map begins with stocks on pace for their third week of gains, longest streak since july apple's chip challenges. the company reportedly facing more issues in its effort to replace qualcomm chips in

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