4.37% or something, the lowest level since september, is where the yields touched earlier this morning, but that has been the story for sure, just watching what's happened with these yields >> well, between now and monday, we'll see what happens happy friday, everybody. have a great weekend >> you too join us on monday. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange premarket is steady as the bulls try to add a third week to this 10% move off the october lows. bond yields are cooperating somewhat ten-year drops below 4.4% early this morning we'll watch the closes today our road map begins with stocks on pace for their third week of gains, longest streak since july apple's chip challenges. the company reportedly facing more issues in its effort to replace qualcomm chips in iphones, further pushing back

what has already been a delayed project. and elon musk is under fire after endorsing an anti-semitic post on x. this was wednesday, but the story continues to evolve. ibm, the latest to suspend advertising on the social media platform let's begin with the markets on track for another positive week lot of chatter this morning, jim, about even the bears, b of a is a good example, getting noncommittal saying maybe you fade 45, 50 >> i think that one of the things that's happening is we do have the big broadening. for the longest time, who was doing good walmart. everybody else, no you wake up this morning, or if you got home last night and read the gap stops, it was like a throwback. it was like the mickey drexler -- remember gap would go up every year? this thing reminds me of, all right, get away from the beaten path get away from the magnificent seven. you're beginning to find stories that are monster good. williams sonoma reports this

quarter. they don't even care about the same store sales they're just talking about profitability. david, next thing you know, you got a stock that 's up ten. we are making money in stocks that we haven't looked at in ages >> all right, so, williams sonoma has not been an underperformer macy's and gap, you know, nobody -- by the way, the market caps of these things are tiny. gap was waonce a giant we really did care honestly, who cares -- >> you want to go back to the ten-year plus 7 show >> who cares about gap why do you care? >> people can make money they can go to the store, go to old navy, see the fresh look, see the -- check the comp store sales numbers and on a percentage basis, this is every bit as good as what you get from nvidia in the last month >> you're absolutely right there you go i wanted to give you one this morning. >> david, they don't -- >> they don't care >> small gap, sorry. go to chemical bank. remember that? >> i gave you a softball don't do too much with it there.

you're right, okay money's money, and the gap gave you some opportunity to make money. my only point was, back to the 20 -- years when we really cared about it, mickey drexler, and they were important, growth. >> i mean, look, i got to tell you, i'm seeing things that i haven't looked at in a long time david, we are seeing things like amazon selling cars. okay so, suddenly, we've got, you know, whoever amazon is going to team up with, i want to own. lithium motors >> amazon is selling cars? >> you don't know lithium? >> is bezos selling stock? i think he might be selling some stock. >> i don't know that >> i'm not sure. we'll find out in the filings. i'm hearing that lately. by the way, wouldn't be a -- it's nothing huge to read into he hasn't sold stock in years, but he may have recently changed his residence to florida >> oh. >> which might be one reason why

he would want to sell some stock. >> i thought that was an interesting deal you can buy a car at costco. people don't talk about that amazon, just so you know, when you watch their football broadcast, they're using all of their analytics, and so suddenly, you have -- if i were one of the other networks, i said, holy cow, it's a really interesting way to watch football >> did the ravens win that game last night >> yeah, burrow got hurt >> i watched a little bit. well, the hyundai deal is interesting because they will sell on the retail platform. in return, aws becomes hyundai's preferred cloud provider there's alexa tie-ins. this is 3-d chess. >> i think jassy is doing things quietly that are amazing for instance, you spend $8 billion on alexa. okay he's not in the charity business this alexa is going to be doing things for you, and it could be -- it could end up being your a.i. assistant i don't see why not. why should alexa be just sitting there, put on some neil diamond, you know

"red red wine. >> i didn't realize. >> i didn't know that either >> really? >> he's talented >> he was. on amazon, i mean, why -- speaking of charity, the why are they spending so much money on content, then? do they really need to spend it at all are you going to cut your prime subscription if you stop getting anything from them content-wise? >> i think they are sitting there thinking, well, maybe we have a gold mine on advertising. maybe we have something -- >> they have a gold mine on advertisi advertising on the site of all the people who want sponsors >> the nfl game is advertising >> there is. but they are not making money at all from the money they spend on content. >> they have a long-term view. >> to do what? to be what >> to be, i don't know, take over the world they have a black friday football game. that was brilliant >> you couldn't answer the question because it's very hard to answer that question, because there are some shareholders who say, just stop, and that will be $8 billion or $10 billion of the bottom line. >> let's just stop one of the

greatest wealth creators of all time >> not that. >> let's just stop originating >> the content part of the business >> amazon's been getting grief about their spending for 25 years. >> i just find that jassy is putting -- jassy is a business person who's got designs to see how good this is versus, say, i don't know whether alphabet thinks they have anything at all with the nfl sunday ticket >> my point is it's not clear how sticky it makes a customer, whether they get, you know, whether you can watch "mrs. maisel" or not >> i just got the notification about the price increase >> it comes at 4:00 a.m. i've been up for an hour i say, geez, i just paid for that >> they're only going one way. you get ad-supported, which will keep some people otherwise, they've got to keep raising price, all these services >> what do you hear in disney? >> what do you mean? what kind of a question is that? >> just kind of open >> you want to be more specific? >> i looked into this, the

fellow from valueact >> mason you looked into him? >> he's a hitter >> you have oppo >> i looked into him, carl >> he's connected. that guy's connected >> then i stopped looking into him. meantime, we got a couple other stories in tech. reuters report detailed a look into the company for spending chips to a chinese company without the further licenses apple falling behind this qualcomm partnership is feeling kind of sticky >> and you know, you're not supposed to ever mention apple's name, but christiane just flouts that because he's not a pal of tim cook i have will tell you that on the -- gary dickerson on the applied materials call last night, 47% of applied materials is with china. he said, this broke a while ago, and he wouldn't talk about it more i was talking with my team and i wanted to say, buy it. but you can't. you go and say something and

then the justice department drops a bomb on your head. david, this did not seem to me as something that was this global conspiracy to get the best stuff for china but they do need -- china does need it. >> right >> especially as we know from alibaba that they need it. >> right >> do we -- >> although who said that -- we're doing someone that says it's going to be the future. pinchai says they're running rings around us. china. >> oh, china sundar says that >> yeah. >> okay. in a.i.? has he talked to microsoft about that i think satya nadella might have a different view >> i just thought it was completely wrong i want to be sure of my stuff there. i thought we went over this beforehand i think we're running rings around them. don't forget, nvidia reports next week. >> how about this "times" piece today, looking sort of -- david sanger's piece about the talks this week. for the first time in decades, china needed a few things from the united states. talking about a shift in the power balance.

>> look, they need growth. they need companies to locate there. the -- i think, david, you're very close you always do the alibaba people >> i did i don't now nearly as closely as i did ten years ago. >> i'd rather be in macys.com. >> baba shares are down again this morning >> it's been a disaster if you own that >> i think yesterday was the decision not to spin cloud but they did point to a shortage of chips because of, of course, the export ban >> they ain't getting an nvidia chip gina raimondo was over there and got dissed immediately usual shenanigans. she's one of the people that knows what an h-200 is the government used to be very clueless chips, let's just block them no, not the large form factor, the so-called dumb chips, that's not what this is about >> she has been the most involved of anybody in the cabinet, the secretary of

commerce, gina raimondo. >> i've not met a businessperson left or right who didn't think that she was maybe the most sophisticated person in government that we've ever dealt with when it comes to business >> yeah, and she's been at the forefront, obviously, the chips act but also these bans that we're talking about. we need to get her on here >> i have her on a lot >> you do? >> i'm always blown away by how good she is. >> you want to bring her on our show >> i think she would go toe-to-toe with nikesh arora >> we did have a downgrade of palo alto yesterday. >> take that >> b of a not confident it's a one-quarter phenomenon >> i thought that was unbelievable it's about the total contract value and how you would be able to trigger it but sara yesterday had crowdstrike. she couldn't talk, but there was a big price target bump in crowdstrike, kind of indicating that they don't have a problem i think palo alto, look, sixth best performer in the s&p. i think he's got a great solution for both on prem and

cloud whereas crowdstrike is cloud native, david. >> right right. but you're not worried >> no, i'm not worried >> when it comes to palo alto. you're a believer still. >> nikesh is financing some of these contracts, and some of them wanted to shorten their contract to one year, so the billings number was no longer as good an indicator of business. i'm going back to google pinchai is delaying the competitive to microsoft >> i'm aware of your memo, but when you jump around, those people who are actually trying to follow and listen to you may not be able to do so >> we have a black friday special. door buster. i'm making everyone work on thanksgiving >> i'm sure you are. i'll be here on thanksgiving do you want to repeat that now that we can explain it sundar at google says they're doing what >> i'm just reading the headlines. >> tell me >> delaying competitor microsoft. people worried about whether he has -- this ignite conference, look, usually, these conferences

don't mean that much >> this ignite conference, a lot of news will come out of it. i have a note from wolf research, and they could not be more excited about the possibilities that owe copilot presents they cite the compelling sats. 75% of copilot users say they're more productive. 68% say it improved the quality of their work. they go on to say the next thing is going to be this low-code tool to customize copilot for microsoft 365 that will enable people to build stand-alone copilots >> yeah. >> that they think could drive virality comparable to what teams saw from covid, but this time for ownershpenai. it gives you a reflection of the enthusiasm coming out of microsoft's ignite >> piper had this what's hot, what's not piece and today, they say, listen, what's hot is also mong odb and oracle.

and hot microsoft security but then, they say the copilot all the time is a no-go. they said that there's been too much time talking about how everybody, that microsoft copilot fits together with everything that was a little contrary to that view. >> to this research piece? >> yes but i do think that ignite ignited the stock again. microsoft's stock has been the best >> yeah, they are very bullish >> well, look, they're a smart company. no one ever thought they were a dumb company >> are they in the lead in a.i., microsoft? yes or no? >> you mean, after nvidia? >> yes i mean, on the -- more the usage case, not the backbone >> not the picks and shovels >> absolutely not. not even close absolutely when we come back, we'll talk about this backlash against elon musk after his latest controversial posts on x ibm pulling its ads from that platform we'll get to some other names. csx with jim last night, big piece in the journal on el

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you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ tesla's moving lower again after falling almost 4% yesterday in the wake of the latest social media controversy surrounding elon musk on his x platform musk responded to a post which embraced an anti-semitic conspiracy theory, calling it the absolute truth though he attempted to qualify that statement in a later post didn't stop ibm from pulling its

ads from x after a report found that some of them were positioned next to pro-nazi content. jim, this definitely has the eye of the street. citron yesterday saying, take the car back it's not as good as the bmw anyway >> look, this thing is so hot that i don't think it may even transcend whether he believes in what he's writing, david >> listen, it's, you know, it's not atypical for mr. musk to wade into things where you really question as to why, and express opinions that are distasteful, to say the least. i don't know him particularly well spent some time with him, know a number of people who are much closer to him, and certainly, don't believe in any way that he's actually an anti-semite i asked him back in may, because even back then, he had some tweets about george soros, who he does not have particularly nice feelings about, and it was right around the time of our interview. take a listen. >> when you do something like

that, the -- >> i think that's true that's my opinion. >> why share it? why share it, especially because -- why share it when people who buy teslas may not agree with you advertisers on twitter may not agree with you why not just say, hey, i think this -- you can tell me, we can talk about it over there, you can tell your friends, but why share it widely? >> i mean, this is freedom of speech i'm allowed to say what i want >> you absolutely are, but i wonder why you do, because it puts you in the middle of the partisan divide in the country, makes you a lightning rod for criticism. do you like that, people today saying he's an anti-semite i don't think you are. >> i'm like a pro-semite >> you know, he continues to have this feud with the adl and jonathan greenblatt, although t they seemed to come to some agreement some time back my understanding is he's probably one of the larger

contributors to the adl, is musk >> that's a tough thing. >> he has a reckless abandon to create risk. that, again, is from somebody who's close to him and it doesn't end he, you know, listen, people say, he has no idea who's jewish or not, he could care less, he only wants to know what you can do for him to advance what it is he's looking for, and he's not -- he doesn't care about that he doesn't care if your kids are sick he doesn't care. he's just moving forward >> let's bring it back to what we do, so how many people will pull -- how many companies will pull, and if they pull, what are the implications for the stock of tesla you're going to need money, because that thing is a burner, twitter. what's the implications for linda yaccarino? >> there would not seem to be anything positive that comes from his decisions to engage on these kinds of things, and particularly in the way that he does you're right you're right >> you can recall things that

you said that would also -- there's a syndrome, not that i'm a doctor, but there's a syndrome about the speed, kind of like the market, the speed between your brain and what you say and there's an affliction -- >> he's been asked, the 4:00 a.m. tweets or whatever time >> most people have a filter that they don't even realize they were born with, and some people have minds that work so fast, that you think it's a great thing and it turns out to be a tremendous liability. this man's mind must work faster than anybody's in america. >> he also just -- he's always just moving forward. this will be like a bug on the windshield of the cybertruck at some point tomorrow's another day for him he wakes up. >> tomorrow could be another day for -- you know who felt like that don imus just another day >> he had an employer. this is a little bit different i'm just saying he's a far, far, far, far more powerful fellow. and by the way, with greater -- much greater influence >> it's an ad-supported site

>> twitter is. >> yeah. i think tesla is fine. >> imus had an employer, but he has financiers >> right he has financiers, but at the same time, if you're linda yaccarino, you were not hired to defend you were hired to sell and this is -- makes it a tougher sell you call these guys today and say, listen, he didn't mean it, but then they say, we don't care >> at some point, you say, enough doesn't matter >> is he a genius? yeah, but i don't have to advertise next to him. >> we're not done talking about it, obviously. when we come back, we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals,

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but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life. some facts. i'm a mom from virginia. i work with immigrants in israel as well as palestinians, and five members of my family were kidnaped by hamas on october 7th. two were brutally murdered and three are still being held. all i want, all anyone would want, is to hug them and hold them again. we demand medical care. we demand the release of the hostages from hamas terrorists. these are innocent women and children. return them to us, to their families. demand their release.

we got a "mad dash" for you. i'd say you called an audible. you sat here and saw dave cody, the chairman of vertiv, and you said, hey, why not >> earlier this week, you said, hey, building all these datacenters, tell me how to play it >> i mentioned the stock i did mention it >> well, so, suddenly, it's like the purloined letter it's like the duck comes down. it's dave cody and his team. dave is the chair. but this is a company -- >> by the way, this is also a spac this was one of the ones -- >> one of the first spacs when spacs were going to be real things, not phony things >> when they were going to be far and few between for particular reasons and not adopted wholly as just an opportunity for people to make money. >> right >> and it's been very successful, and it plays in the datacenter, and what you're happy about it? you like it? >> it did have a bit of a -- there was a period where it wasn't doing as well, and a lot of it had to do with inflation, and i know that -- i don't know

the ceo, but i will tell you that when you see this, what it says is, this is a market that is still vibrant, and i want you to go to larry ellison when he's talking about oracle being in the datacenter and just saying, we can't build them fast enough. vertiv >> vertiv is involved in basically putting it all together for you >> yes, it is. it's the kind of thing where you look at it on the one hand, vertiv, draftkings, i mean, come on, name me five spacs that are real >> you just named the two. that's it. >> that's about it >> i'm sure somebody else will come up with another one >> i have one this week. vera mobility is a real company. but this was a company, david, that had you bought it when it had the second -- not -- >> if you missed -- yeah >> look at this, david this is how money is made. i'm sorry, you can only make money in the magnificent seven ignore this move from $12 to

$43. doesn't count. i went to the bank they said, we're not taking that money. i had to do it in paypal crypto >> speaking of money, we got an opening bell four minutes away, and don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere by listening to and following the "squawk on thetrt:peng llpoast.ee oni

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. the economy will likely weaken, in other words, its growth rate going to something close to zero plus or minus, maybe 1%, and with that, that exerts a slight downward pressure on interest rates at the same time the supply issue becomes an important issue >> that's dalio on "squawk" earlier this morning talking about the economy. also had some comments about china earlier this week. he did say that the threat of outright war with china vis-a-vis taiwan has gone down >> i like that the best, most cogent interview i have heard was a bloomberg interview on this issue with kissinger saying, it really is

important that we bring this back down. kissinger knew more about china, i think, than anyone -- knows more than anyone in our lifetime, and i thought that's what really happened i mentioned earlier in my memo that it was -- and on twitter -- that there was not a lot -- but what there was was a step back, and i remember for those old enough, the step back from when russia seemed like they were on a nuclear warpath with us was very good. and i think this was very good that there was a step back i don't think anyone gained an advantage. david, we didn't even get hock tan getting the very shortly go ahead on the vmware deal >> people are hanging on your every word when it comes to vmware, jim. >> they're not hanging on anything >> they are, because they think that you're in regular touch with hock. what did you just say? >> i said, remember when hock said a couple weeks ago, very shortly the deal would be done hock was at the dinner, and i was thinking that maybe this was one of those things that within the next few days, you would hear, you know what?

it's been approved that's what i was saying they're not hanging on every word on this or anything else i do >> okay. just want to make sure you know nothing right now about vmware approval. >> nobody else does either >> no one knows. i'm just saying, you don't have any insight. >> no. i mean, david, this is that -- this is the mentalist thing. >> i'm just trying to help you help yourself. that's all i'm doing here. just trying to help you help yourself >> i really appreciate your help >> you're welcome. >> yeah, you're a real pal >> i am a pal. jim, a lot of headlines today about oil in a bear market now down 23% from the october high this is going to be four weeks lower. average gas in this country might be headed to $2.99 >> i think that when dalio speaks about -- i disagree with him on the 1%. i think there's so many things going the way of the bulls, in terms of both employment being strong but costs going down,

that you won't have to do much i'm not saying the fed is going to cut, but i am saying that a lot of things are going the fed's way. the one thing is i think a lot of traders are long oil. but there is an opec meeting at the end of the month maybe they tighten david, the natural demand here turned out to be, i think, much more related to a theory about what happened in the yom kippur war of 1973 where oil shot up big because of a bitcoycott, bu think saudis are not playing ball >> it's a very different world anyway it's 50 years. we're the largest producer in the world. 13 million-plus barrels a day. >> and we're doing two million more than we were. people there are quietly pumping more than they realize but we were 8 million. >> this is more of a move on an expected softness in economic activity, isn't it and china's still really not -- by the way, they buy a lot of their oil from iran.

>> yeah, like all of it. >> and the mideast >> i had csx on last night look, there's just less commerce being done there's less commerce being done in the country, whether it be chemicals, wood, ag, you know, csx is just a really good -- joe hendricks, just a great judge of what's happening in the country. carl, i look at the rails, and i think, i don't know, the economy's not burning. but it's not falling apart >> yeah. >> that's where we are that's not one -- that's not 1% growth that's like 2%, 3% >> well, actually, goldman went to 1.8% yesterday on their q4 tracker. but joe did talk to you last night about at least rebounding in freight >> yeah. >> here's what he said >> we have had good momentum into the fourth quarter, actually, so we're seeing some of that. chemicals are coming back a little bit autos, post-strike, are coming back grain harvest has been good. we're seeing some of that. domestic intermodal since around

june, july has been picking up international intermodal, consumers purchasing goods, if that picks back up, we could see growth there but the domestic intermodal has been growing >> we both were talking about one of the top ten stocks. if you think the fed's done, buy the rails, and you buy his rail. and he is a good railroad man. he was a customer for many years. he knows how inefficient the rails have been, and he can take that thing very high he's a good ceo. are you hanging on my every word or just looking at your phone? >> i'm not looking at my phone at all it's probably too small to talk about. >> run it by me. >> charge point? >> i have it the ceo and the cfo, gone. just gone. gonzo. blown out. did you get that one >> chpt. >> there's some issues there >> it's suboptimal >> it's below billion dollar market value, but i guess we can

still talk about it. it's not looking good here at all. not going well something tells me when you're 52-week high is 13 and you're trading at $1.98, you know me. i have a keen sense for the obvious. >> major obvious i tell you, okay, this is -- the pasquale romano is gone and now new ceo rick williams is in there. the cash might be incad adequat the cfo gone too i'm putting this in the category of, you don't really want to make a stand, chargepoint. >> speaking of chargers and charging -- >> the chargers? i have herbert going this weekend. keenan allen will be playing i checked with schefter. keenan allen will play >> he will i was worried about that >> he has shoulder problems. >> i'm talking more about charging infrastructure in the united states and the fact that it does seem to be an impediment, perhaps, now to people's decision making when it comes to evs

>> absolutely. >> one of the gating issues, price, perhaps, still being number one, but there's no doubt this is a concern. is the charger going to be working? how long am i going to have to wait just the inconvenience of it >> there are people spending -- there are companies spending billions of dollars trying to figure out how to make a faster charger, and even just five minutes faster, it's billions of dollars in research. it's a problem i did want to talk about rivian being somebody, a company where there's no ennui there people still want the rivian, and amazon wants it, cars look interesting. they're going to lower the price of the cars, and they are building a new plant this is why i mentioned, this goes full circle for those who are hanging on every word. csx, building a plant in georgia next >> we saw that significant state support, right, or at least some bonds that are being sold to help support it in georgia it's batteries and -- is it both >> yes, and i think that rivian is the one that you have to watch, not lucid, and not fisker it's rivian.

they're real, and the stock went down because of convertible bond and the shorts just roll over like heat-seeking missiles, but i actually think that rivian is here to stay >> they do have an enormous need t for capital as we pointed out more times phil lebeau reports on the company all the time the amount of capital for these companies and whether it's rivian or lucid or ford or gm are going to go through before they get to profitability for their evs. oh, man. >> well, i'm so glad you mentioned it, because rivian would tell you, it's not like ford and gm are making a lot of money in evs >> they're losing money. >> gm spent a lot of money on cruise that doesn't seem to be -- >> at some point, it might but it gets back to the idea that there is waning demand for evs. i'm not saying there aren't -- they're still growing, but not nearly at the rate >> okay, because elon musk may or may not be listening, most likely not, but they have that remodel coming out that is going to be very good.

huge i think people are waiting for the three. >> tesla, yeah meantime, looks like gm ratification's done. stellantis just now crossing the wires, the uaw vote tracker, looks like that's done we do have manheim, jim, down from november, five-plus that's going to feed into cpi. >> oh, my. and by the way, when you look at the housing starts number, it was multifamily home, which is going to be rents down. this, again, is the -- i just can't believe -- jay powell is not lucky. he's good. >> bmo had a note yesterday on oil, which carved -- they say, 0.2% out of cpi in october and is probably going to do it again in november, which would set you up for the lowest back-to-back cpi print since the shutdown >> and then next thing you know, you're going to have a good number in january. david, this is a monumental switch in mindset. and it's examplefied by what's going on at ross stores, which is giving you a great prices for

merchandise. and you see that people are gravitating toward companies where they have merchandise that are from other stores that were in trouble i just think that this is a very good moment for stocks, and i just feel like a lot of stocks i like are -- you would say microsoft. >> no, i wouldn't. listen, ross stores is worthy of discussion its market cap is ten times that of the gap >> we need to know what david's tolerance level is >> he's never been to a ross stores >> i think i have. >> no. >> it was a kohl's you're right i haven't. kohl's is not worthy of discussion, by the way just to be clear it's not >> you don't have kohl's cash? >> it's a $43 billion market cap. what do you think? ross stores. >> i bought a handbag once there for my wife, and i bought a belt it was pretty good >> thank you for sharing >> i bought a bunch of umbrellas. i buy all my umbrellas on amazon >> that's the kind of insight that america really hangs on

every word thank you. >> amazon, terrible company. that's why i like vertiv >> while we're on the space, bj, down two as they do reiterate the if all-year guide. comps were a little bit better than expected, and then you got this el piece in the "journal" where they say the family and the board are at odds about whether or not fabrizio needs to stay >> when i read that piece, i was thinking about "succession." >> you mean the show >> yes shiv >> it's a very interesting piece. obviously, delves into the great history here of estee lauder herself in terms of how she started the company. great family photos, and then pointing to that next generation not just william the next generation. so, it's jane and aaron, whether they will take over in some way. do you think -- >> obviously, fabrizio is in a lot of trouble >> you follow this company very closely, does he deserve to lose

his job? tough question, i know >> i think there are many things that happened very quickly, whether it be covid -- he was uniquely making a bet that he didn't realize he was making on president xi and turnaround and didn't get it. i mean, saying, shouldn't they get rid of the ceo of richmonte? get rid of the ceo of hermes the answer is that he should have pulled out of the tail spin two quarters ago and he didn't pivot. kind of felt there was a little bit too much hope in what he did. no one disagrees that he was a great manager over time, but my travel trust owns it, and all i can say is, you are what your record says you are. >> do you believe in the turnaround plan that he does have in place right now? >> right now, no absolutely not >> you don't >> no, i don't just trying to figure out whether i want to sell it and take it so it minimizes the amount of money i have to send out of the trust because i don't like to keep sending money out, even though it's great to give money to charity, but no, i don't, because i felt this was the quarter, and if it wasn't this quarter, then it wouldn't happen that's where i am now.

tough. don't like that. i think he's terrific. made money for years and years but there are just too many mistakes too many unforced errors too much belief in the china coming back and not having a back-up plan to china not coming back that's what mattered >> needed a back-up plan you always need a back-up plan >> mr. wolf. >> yes >> how long did he have? >> well, he said he would be there in ten >> it takes 30 minutes, i'll be there in 10. >> they don't have a mr. wolf, that's the problem i don't want to be too glib about it when you lose the amount of money -- when you lose that kind of money, everybody's in on it that means my judgment was suspect. his judgment was suspect the family's judgment was suspect. and i just -- i have no answer for having -- this is not disney where i bought it and i had faith that it could come back and it will. this is not boeing this is a cosmetics company that's being killed by elf

in this country. killed by elf. >> and you're not talking will ferrell. >> no. and then overseas, the duty-free, bad china, bad even problems in korea i don't know what to say i supported -- i wanted this thing to work. it had been so great for so long but look at elf. there's a chart for you. there's activists who don't like those guys they kill them and he's killing it, by the way, at target. killing it at target via ulta. >> another breakout lately is expedia, which is another 52-week high here, jim evercore goes to outperform even as they cut airbnb to in line. >> it's such cheap stock it's at 14 times earnings,and booking.com is, i think, not as good a company, and that's selling for 21 times earnings. i thought that the airbnb -- that seemed to be damning with faint praise it talked about how it's plateauing i don't know i think airbnb is a company that continually gets -- it is the gold standard, and people just

don't give it its due, but it's not been a bad stock and brian jchesky, very good ce. >> when you say they don't give it its due, what do you mean >> a lot of analysts don't like it many analysts think it's peaked. i'm not buying that. i don't think it's peaked. i didn't think the piece, the downgrade, made sense even a valuation basis. i thought it was not a cheap shot i just didn't think it was good judgment not good judgment. >> starting to see some upgrades, jim, of some down-beating names zoom today out of citi they go to neutral you know -- you've known this company pretty well. >> my stepson worked at zoom, and look, there isn't a person at zoom who doesn't worship eric yuan, but are they a one-trick pony they're trying to do different things they have apps that are different that people don't give them credit for, but they ran into the buzz saw that is microsoft, and i think that's really -- i mean, people still zoom, but microsoft is very

powerful and i think that that's really been what's bothered them is microsoft. i don't think that they're -- i don't think they're as one trick as people think, but microsoft is so powerful when you put on your pc, the darn thing pops up >> you can't kill teams. it will follow you wherever you go would you like to team now how about now? >> i don't know. >> what about now? >> when i turned it on this morning, it popped up. that or the news site that has trump every day. i mean, some days, he doesn't have news. there's days when trump has news and days that he doesn't doesn't have to be the lead story every day. that's called trickery you want to get ratings. >> really? >> they want ratings microsoft, they own you. >> are they going to get us copilot here are we going to be able to use it for my work flow and everything else? >> you have to pay for copilot >> meanwhile, all i do is get junk emails, so they haven't figured out how to get a.i. in my inbox to help me.

>> i can't help you. >> 99%, just junk. and then i miss the important ones >> people telling you that they want to wire you $17 million >> i don't get those >> you give them your phone number and social security number give them your social security so they can really nail you. >> yeah. >> you know, by the way, when i had nikesh on for palo alto, and he said, look, there's still no solution for the people who are gullible enough to give people information they don't know. and that is still the centrality of cybersecurity is you want to help someone really quickly. what's the social? now, verizon has taken, i believe, a unique approach and has decided to be completely unhelpful to everyone. >> okay. >> is that hotter than talking about -- >> that was funny. >> is that like this, david? >> it's a unique approach. no, we don't have to talk about x. it's not a public company. >> oh, okay, let's just forget

about that one >> there is $13 billion, roughly, $12.5 billion that is held by a number of banks that are not particularly happy about having to own that >> how much morgan stanley -- >> that's the debt that was provided >> morgan stanley, exposure-wise? >> it's not insignificant. it's a large syndicate of banks that own that debt, but they haven't been able to sell it, at least not at a price that they'd be willing to take, i don't think. >> i think it is a story >> at some point, maybe musk wants to buy it back, and he could do so at a significant discount >> maybe we'll talk about that monday so we can just keep bringing this topic up really help. >> sure. or we could call verizon, see if they can be helpful. >> i've been on hold the whole show the whole show, i've been on hold >> that's what that song is, the hold music >> when you ask for a supervisor no uh-uh. >> then you get disconnected after like 30 minutes finally getting to somebody, and then it's like, wait, what?

you're gone? >> it's a nightmare with verizon. no, we're not going to help you, you idiot. try to even switch from us, moron. >> let's check bonds as we go to break here going to have to work our way through fed speak. we've got barr and daley on the tape he says they need the boldness to wait in uncertain times, and we'll see if the ten-year can close below 4.43%, which some argue is the trend line, jim >> these last two weeks are just things of beauty we have to start looking at stocks other than the mag seven. >> back in a minute.

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♪ ♪ time for jim and stop trading. >> we have to talk about how tjx always guides down and then the stock gets hammered and then wait five days and buy it. here we go tjx is cheaper than ross stores. it's a better run company than ross stores. i like home goods very much.

i got a turkey platter there once it was fantastic no turkey in it. the head of a turkey i just think you buy tjx right here right now. >> how about tonight >> i'm doing a face-off with ben. [ inaudible ] about lynde versus air products and these are the two industrial gas companies of our era and they are deeply involved with hydrogen and climate change and which one is better. >> were you unnerved by industrial production yesterday? >> no. >> is that all autos >> all autos and the strike and why i thought the csx comments were so cogent i do think, by the way, that you're not going to build any more plants if you can get away with it, auto plants, in that area, in detroit i think shawn fain turned out to be the most powerful person. we look at capitalism in 2023, he's going to turn out to be the most powerful force of capitalism he took those -- he took the industry apart and turned it

upside down. >> well the "times" yesterday top 1% owns 31% of u.s. wealth, the bottom 50% own 2.5% of u.s. wealth. >> well, i think that the czar owns a lot of wealth and maybe it's time we go from the finland station, to the finland station. >> you don't believe that, though >> no. we have a problem in the country. >> we've had it for a long time. >> president reagan was probably the foremost president on this issue talking about how it's too great a disparity between what people who work in the factory -- >> to carl's point that it is the key cline ofunions that is in part caused that because of the -- >> look, i don't know. look, how successful was the starbucks union barista thing versus how good the ginger bread chai is. >> the unions now is different. >> i think that the disparity in the country is ridiculous. what can i say it's terrible.

i was -- i was a union leader and i was -- and lived in my car and -- >> what did your dad tell the "times." >> the actors were right about everything. >> ip. >> i had to read that 42,000 word opus because i heard he read it. nothing. nothing. >> say ip a lot. great ip. >> we have to go >> you have great i.p. >> sara eisen on a fantastic - >> yes hopefully we'll talk more about it in the next hour. amazing doc last night see you at 6:00. "mad money." 6:00 p.m. eastern. >> red wine. who would have thought neil diamond. >> holding 4500. back in a moment it's welcoming... everything we want to be when helping people find a medicare plan during the annual enrollment period. so, say hello... to hellomedicare, a one-stop shop for medicare plans, including a range of “all-in-one” medicare advantage plans... from the names you know.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. sara eisen live in las vegas one last time ahead of a huge formula race this weekend. trying to hold 4500. treasuries cooperating somewhat. 30 minutes in. movers, chargepoint slumping preannouncing a weak q3 with a new ceo. applied materials one of the laggards after news the company

is under a u.s. criminal probe gap shares on pace for their best days since 2020 amazon, eliminating several hundred roles in its alexa division sara >> carl, i am here in las vegas, where there's a lot to get to because all the festivities began here with some drama and headlines. we will get to those in a moment we have to talking about the market first because we have oil now in a technical bear market, treasury rally continues we're seeing levels on yield we haven't seen since mid-september. quite a rebound in the stock market after the lows in october, all on the back of these lower yields it's a lot to talk about and figure out as to what's next just a few points to highlight data today, not much, but we got housing starts better than expected uk retail sales, carl and david, were weak and i think it sharpens the focus that we're in this new global economic cycle of a slowdown, and that's the underpinning in part

so far the bond market and the stock market seems okay with it, and likes it will that change i was going through some bank of america fund manager survey data that came out, michael hartnett, always with a must read on fridays, about how the consensus is shaping up for 2024 and so soft landing. that's still the prevalent view on wall street 67% expected lower inflation. 82% say that rates will be lower. that's an 80% consensus trade. and weaker u.s. dollar is consensus. 65%. david, that makes a contrarian call for a hard landing and contrarian call that inflation will stay sticky these are risks out there, but i just think it's interesting how everybody gets excited by the rally and piles on top of this trade for next year. >> we've seen it this week, although not as much today with the broader averages down ever so slightly. so i saw higher rates at 6% on

that bofa global fund manager survey where were they saying there would be lower rates or cuts next year? >> yeah. i mean i think the market is coalescing around the idea it might happen in the first half that's what market is telling you in may or june most of the economists i was reading jpmorgan for 2024 outlook don't expect it to happen until the second half of the year it depends on i think the economic data and how much it deteriorates from here and whether the fed will feel hates to cut sooner to prevent recession if it feels confident inflation is still on a downward slope. so far the fed speak has been more cautious around that saying well, we need to see more evidence that inflation is coming down. no surprise there. the market has been fighting that what is happening? if we're looking for any potential deterioration in the economy. we do have -- and this is going to be great to hear from sue son collins, boston fed president, with steve liesman on the show, but as far as commentary, you know i dig through the retail reports trying to figure out what's going on with the consumer gap with a better than expected

report here's the commentary on the holiday spending outlook from the ceo as we enter the fourth quarter we have a balanced view of the holiday season, inventories according to gap are well controlled and our financial position is strong however, we remain mindful of the uncertain environment. a company doing self-help but referring to the uncertain environment. the ross ceo, ross stores, for the third quarter cosmetics, accessories and shoes were the strongest performing businesses while geographic results were broad-based. which gives you a sense of where people are spending. we'll get more retail results next year with best buy and lowe's and the others. the market is coming to grips with the view it's been a cautious outlook on holiday spending, value-orient the consumers. walmart dropping the deflation word yesterday was a wake-up call to everybody. >> yeah. it was interesting to hear them clarify it halfway through the

day. great chart out of new edge looking at jobless claims against retail inventory to sales ratios, and they track pretty closely i'm sure these retailers are watching claims data every week. >> yeah. three-month high on claims data. so elevated. state of layoffs could have something to do with retail. then the other big data point that people aren't talking about, but i think is super important as we try to figure out what supply-demand picture looks like for treasuries, not great timing but the september news out of treasury came out last night on foreign buyers and we saw an outflow. total foreign ownership of treasuries actually fell it was down $67.4 billion. i know that you pay attention to this with me, and that is -- comes amid questions about foreign buyers less participation in the auctions weaker 30-year last week and another big one on monday. who is going to buy all this debt that we have to issue the treasury is still trying to tighten their balance sheet.

$60 billion a month there in terms of shedding on that portfolio. we're keeping an eye on the trends as china is no longer a net buyer. >> they aren't we know that and they probably are unhappy with what they bought in the past given the decline overall in prices, but there's plenty of money in money market funds. it may end up even at 4.5% something people want to put away in a 10-year. >> yeah. there's a lot of talk of that. we've seen all that money rush into money market funds. we'll see if this treasury rally, it's been a powerful treasury rally despite these concerns about long-term demand. i don't know is that a short squeeze? everybody was piled on one side of the treasury trade or not i did think another note on the michael hartnett note at bank of america it's been bullish to see this move from 5% to 4% on the 10-year but does 4s for 3% on the 10-year if that's where

we're heading less bullish because that is signifying a darker economic outlook or recession outlook. that's something to contemplate as we watch these yields, firmer today, but hovering in the 4.4 range. guys, you know i'm here in vegas and give you an update there's been a lot of news in the last 24 hours so the big race kicked off last night with a bump in the road. literally. so it was the first practice session last night and just a few minutes into it, there was this manhole, a drain cover, that came up, the concrete went loose because of the force and pressure and high speeds on the track and damaged one of the ferrari cars and they had to call off the first practice session. they were able to figures it in a few hours and held the second practice at 2:00 in the morning here with no fans. but little bit of a mishap here, especially with so much focus on making this weekend such a huge success for formula 1 and for

liberty media. toto wolff, head of the mercedes team brushed it off, said this is a new track, raising the standards on everything, so tonight will be a test on that because there's a qualifying round and the big race, of course, saturday night we'll see if they can fix some of the kinks it's a 3.8 mile track in the middle of las vegas. something they've never done before. >> not unprecedented to have a problem with the drain covers. it's a huge engineering feat to get the tracks to be car ready we'll talk about that later this morning. broader markets are on pace for some solid weekly gains. a couple of the mild inflation reports as you know. our next guest is warning of a mixed setup into '24 laurie is here, rbc u.s. equity. thanks for being with us we were talking about during the break what a difficult tape it is, right. trends work for two or three weeks and then they work against you. >> yeah. it's true. and, you know, it's interesting if i look back to what happened, you know, a couple weeks ago in the aai survey, you went down

for about 5 minutes and hit oversold levels in terms of how pessimistic people were. the very next week we bounced up and didn't get quite into euphoric territory, got pretty close, and i would say the other thing that's jumped out at me recently when we kissed 5% on the bond yield 10-year yield i was on the road seeing clients, and it fell quickly and people were like, it was like kids on christmas morning. what do we buy and it was just like this sense of relief. people felt so stuck for the last couple months and now they had something to do. it's felt a little squeezy at times but on the other hand, there was real excitement that came about. >> is the theory people will buy mega cap first and then go shopping elsewhere is that the working theory >> i think so. if you want to look at what if yields have peaked shopping list, within s&p you will come up with a consumer discretionary sector and communication sector. the two sectors inversely

correlated with yields in terms of how they trade. consumer discretionary in particular you can see the relationship back to the 1980s those are big weights in the growth trade and push you back into the bigger cap growth stocks on the other hand another part of the market that should do well is small caps because they've been beaten down in large part due to interest rate fears and balance concerns both can't lead at the same type it's a question maybe you focus on one and then the other. >> do you have a preference? >> which one >> i'm telling people to have exposure to both we like tech most of all within the growth trade i have been telling people between consumer discretionary you want to be selective we're down to 4.5% okay how much farther are we going to fall from here but i have been telling people, you know, i think once you get fed cuts in place and we're a little bit closer to that, that will be a trigger for the small cap space. we've had nice bounces here and

they've had a good week. is it sustainable? it's hard to say when the economy is showing signs of weakness you're going to get caught flat footed if you try to wait to pick the exact inflection. >> what about earnings coming out of this season but this idea of slowing and what it may mean for earnings and whether the multiples justified right now? where are with you as we head into next year >> we did our almost recap of reporting season few retailers coming out the thing i'll say on the one hand i've seen challenge, uncertainty, complexity, so it does feel like the outlook is kind of soft, but at the same time, the consumer does seem somewhat resilient rationale bending but not breaking you know, on the other hand, i sort of look at the earnings numbers for next year, i'm at 232, street consensus is 46. a lot of conversations with investors about how the company level estimates are baking in too much margin expansion and the buy side is skeptical it's

going to come through. i feel like we need to pull numbers down at some point that's going to cause indigestion in the markets and stocks moving well in advance of earnings trends. if we get an earnings recovery a lot is in the price where we are right now. that doesn't make me super bearish but dampens my thooum as reporting season winds down. >> some chat about whether or not we're stealing any year-end rally. >> i've been joking with people like november and december are a terrible time to be a strategist people are trying to put out their 2024 outlooks and the market starts running one way or the other and what people are talking about next year gets baked into november and december pricing and figure out what are the next three or four steps from there it's a tough market right now. >> look forward to having you back soon. >> thanks for having me. >> as we head to a break right here a road map for the hour bash lash growing for elon musk. what about risk to tesla and investors? >> plus, a whole lot more here

from las vegas including an exclusive interview with the ceo of marriott, one of the biggest hotel operators on the strip. after the break an exclusive, you don't want to miss it, boston fed president susan collins after a big week for the fed and inflation data as "squawk on the stre" ntues.et what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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hike in '24. st steve liesman in boston. >> perfect setup with the interview with susan collins we're here in the gorgeous boston fed building here. >> thank you for being here at the boston fed for our 67th economic conference. >> wow i think i've been to a bunch of them maybe 20 of them let me start off with the recent inflation report which beat expectations and really caused the market to make this shift of thinking well maybe or maybe not the fed will hike to that looks certain to cut what was your reaction to the inflation report >> three things about that the first one is that, you know, some promising news there. we are seeing some moderation in inflation and certainly we can talk about the details of what we're seeing we're also seeing some rebalancing in the economy more broadly. so, you know, in terms of the inflation numbers, though, the headline came down partly in energy, but at the same time,

data is so noisy right now, and the progress that we've seen has been pretty uneven just like i wouldn't overreact if things went in the direction we weren't looking for, i won't overreact if we get promising news we're positioned to be patient, and the three-month core is still at 3.4%. that's higher than we want, and so in order to get back down to 2% in a reasonable amount of time we need to be patient and resolute and i wouldn't take additionals off the table. promising news, which is great, but i remain focused on really looking at the full complement of information that we're getting and making assessments in real time about the right thing to do. >> to recap, the market reads this number and says it's off the table. you read this number and you say it's not off the table, which is sort of saying like, is the market making a mistake here

did it go too far in saying oh, by march or may of next year you will be cutting interest rates >> i understand the tendency to really enjoy good news and there is some good fuse in some of the numbers and we need to appreciate that. i don't see additional firming off the table. the key point is we need to stay the course and we are seeing that the work that we've done is feeding through the economy and we're seeing broader evidence of rebalancing, in particular labor markets and that's really important. so there, again, i think it's important for us to be patient and recognize that far from declaring victory, there are parts of the inflation number, good price inflation has come down substantially, reflecting improvement in supply conditions that's actually back to prepandemic levels we're seeing some good news on the price inflation, but got to

watch rents in particular because that's been uneven and we need to make sure that the moderation there is sustained. while we've seen a bit of good news on the nonshelter services, there's really more to do there, and i'm being patient. we'll look at holistically at the data and welcome the promising signs. >> you've used that word holistically a lot i want to ask you, you talked about higher interest rates doing the work for the fed those rates remain higher than they had been in the summer but lower than they were when you made that comment. do you still see interest rates are doing some of the work for the fed? >> it's certainly the case, for example, longer term treasuries has come down since the last fomc and there's movement in there and it's kind of hard to predict exactly where that will go going forward i look overall at financial conditions and we are seeing

tighter conditions there is restriction for firms that are bank sensitive and a lot of firms have very strong balance sheets and some are less so and also for households i am seeing evidence of the kind of restrictiveness that's consistent with the order early slowdown that we're looking for to realign demand with supply and continue the inflation moderation that we need to bring inflation back to 2%. >> are you more satisfied labor supply and demand are becoming more aligned >> i'm seeing positive signs to watch. some of the signals we've seen payroll numbers have been moderating, but again, the data really noisy the data is always noisy, but if you look at a number of series, they're more noisy than prepandemic, which is part of why being patient, taking time to really assess and looking at a number of indicators matter. we've seen prime age numbers increase that all helps to realign and

that's positive. >> that brings us nicely to the topic of the conference. rethinking you talked about -- reminded us the fed has this employment goal of being broad-based and inclusive. what does that mean for policy how do you as a policy maker say, i am going to run an inclusive employment mandate rather than just a full employment mandate >> so to me the two are more aligned than what you suggested. the key issue is understanding, what do we mean by full employment what that means is looking more broadly. our overarching mission is a vibrant economy that works for everyone we know that things like the aggregate unemployment rate that's an average, so it's really -- it certainly gives us important information, but it doesn't really tell us about the disparities and the gaps in economic experience, including in the labor market, that some groups and communities have, and understanding better what those disparities are and where they

come from and what kinds of policies might address them can help us to make opportunities more equitablebly distributed and available, and help to bring more people into our workforce, increase economic growth, competitiveness of our economy -- >> the question it raises as an example, should you run a looser policy to close racial unemployment gaps, for example >> we need to understand the full dimensions of what's happening, not looking at aggregate numbers. i think a number of the kinds of things we might do collectively to address some of the barriers as we understand them better, are not going to be things that are directly monetary policy they may be fiscal policies or pu public-private partnerships. one thing we can do is nonpartisan research bringing people together to really dmig

and understand better what data should we look at when we look at monetary policy that's one of the sessions >> it's not an issue anybody is talking about but you are. thanks very much, president collins here, from the boston fed. back to you. i guess -- >> pleasure. thanks, steve. >> i am, steve thank you for bringing that to us one former fed governor's reacono rts ti tpaof that interview after the break. we're back in two. but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank. we are citi. ♪♪ hello! hello is friendly... hello is open... it's welcoming... everything we want to be when helping people find a medicare plan

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boston fed president collins talking to steve liesman saying it is too early to declare victory on inflation former governor randy kroszner joins us to react. happy friday good to see you. she did say the data lately has been noisy, and i wonder if you pair with cpi and ppi, do you think it is? >> that's always something you can talk about and never want to overreact to one or two or three data points. what they want to do is hedge and say we don't have enough data to make a decision to start to move down i think the markets -- i do think the markets have gotten a little bit ahead of where the

fed is in saying inflation is gone and now they can start cutting rates. i think they will wait because they really want to make sure inflation comes down we're not at the 2% goal. >> she did say, she understand the tendency to enjoy good news, but then i wonder, is the playbook going to be messages like this from collins today, up until the moment very do cut >> i think they'll give foundation when they will move and i don't think they want to up end the markets what they want to do is give a consistent message, as you can, with a committee with so many different people and perspectives, that the market should not be expecting a cut soon i think jay powell does not want to be remembered as arthur burns who had inflation go up much when he was there and left the fed. he wants to be remembered as paul volker, able to bring inflation back down. what that means is holding

tighter for longer, not forever, but longer. >> i think at the same time he probably doesn't want to wreck the soft landing, which we have right now n an overreaction to an inflation number that has come down historically fast. do you feel that they're going to weigh the weaker economic data even more there's evidence, jobless claims, the labor market, retail sales, what we're hearing from the consumer and that's what's shifted. inflation is still coming down sort of here at these elevated levels, but with the economy weakening, that does not change -- doesn't that change the script >> once again, people will pivot to what susan said about the data being noisy you can pick out pieces of the macro data to see where things are. as i think i've said on your program before, i'm if it's a soft landing, softer landing, i'm in the harder landing camp

real wage growth is positive but less demand to higher people when real wages are growing and now that inflation has come down but interest rates are still elevated, the real interest rate adjusted interest rate is positive and heatthat's going t discourage investment, real growth wages discourage employment, so i do think things are going to come down but i do think that fed will probably wait. they're not going to cut like that to magically prevent the unemployment rate from going up. i think they're going to wait. >> until when? what's your best guess >> so, obviously, now i'm going to sound like an old person and say that's data dependent because it's going to depend on, you know, how -- >> you don't have to say that anymore. you're not there. >> no. but i mean -- so my forecast is that inflation will continue to move down and i think the unemployment rate will move up,

but probably gradually, you never know that's one of these things everything moves smoothly, but in the real world things tend to move rapidly if you get a rapid movement in the unemployment rate up and inflation continues to come down, they'll move sooner. if the unemployment rate is moving up slowly, i think they are going to hold for a while. i don't see anything in the first half of next year. >> finally one of the more constructive takes out of goldman this past week has been the idea if something were to break in the markets, that they have i think goldman said, quote, plenty of room to cut does that give you any solace? >> they to have room to cut. when down at zero, there wasn't room to cut, but -- and, you know, if there is some sort of economic shocker, the fed will respond to that. they're going to be reluctant to do so unless they see it as something very serious the employment rate is moving up a bit. that's not going to do it. another geopolitical shot, we're

in a world where there are a lot of those and probably more coming, that's something they'll respond to. >> really helpful on the heels of that important interview. thank you. see you soon meantime let's get a check on crypto. bitcoin in the red on the week, but still up big on the month. moving on well above 30 k as investors continue to watch for the approval of a spot bitcoin etf which could herald a fresh wave of snoougsal interest in the space and a similar story in the biggest crypto currency by market cap ethereum, down on the week, up on the month and year with black rock filing for a spot etf in that crypto just yesterday. both bitcoin and ethereum still out performing strongly this year interesting to note some of the weakness which comes along with dollar weakness. hard to tell a correlation there. time now for a cnbc news update. let's get to silvana henao. >> sara, good morning. the israeli defense force released a video showing what

officials contend is a hamas tunnel shaft and a vehicle that contained weapons. the weapons and tunnel were reportedly found at gaza's largest hospital and at two other nearby hospitals while nbc news has verified the location, it hasn't yet independently verified the idf's evidence. president biden signed a stopgap spending bill the day before a potential government shutdown both chambers of congress passed the measure earlier this week ensuring funding levels stay the same the next two month while officials negotiate a long-term package. wartime aid for ukraine and israel remains stalled. and the house ethics chairman filed a resolution this morning to expel congressman george santos after the committee released a report that found substantial evidence that santos miss used campaign funds and exploited his candidacy for his own profit a vote on the expulsion isn't expected until the weak after thanksgiving when the house

returns. guys >> thanks. still to come this morning, some of the investor backlash on tesla growing after elon musk's controversial post on x. we'll talk about the risks facing the stock when we return.

ibm suspending its ads from the x platform after a report from media matters found that corporate ads were appearing next to pro-nazi content you've followed x. obviously, you've interviewed its ceo a number of times as well do you have a bit more color on this >> just from the x side i can give you something from an executive of what they're saying about all this the nonprofit media matters report showing in a screenshot this was happening but according to x, they say according to our logs up until the 15th, the article ran the 16th, none of these ads ran adjacent to any of

the content media matters is claiming x says they did a sweep on the accounts that media matters found and they will no longer be monetizeble and that the specific posts will be labeled sensitive media, and then they sort of go through this explanation of how something like this can happen of and i think the discrepancy it could be that the media matters reporter, david, was actively searching for these accounts i'm not saying this is any excuse, and i'm sure ibm would not say this is an excuse either to have their ads appearing next to nazi and holocaust denial content, however, they're trying to get to the bottom of this with their engineers how that happened because it wasn't intentional at all to put any ibm ads or any ads alongside this content for now they're saying that it really shouldn't have happened at all and trying to figure out whether that's even real. >> got it. okay well, of course, nothing seems to stop elon musk from engaging in controversial topics

and continuing to share his thoughts on the x platform or like certain things that run afoul of many other people's view of the world. you may remember that i asked musk about the fallout from his decision to constantly engage with at least some controversial posts. >> do your tweets hurt the company? are there tesla owners who say i don't agree with his political position because -- and i know it because he shares so much of it or there are advertisers on twitter that linda yaccarino will say you have to stop and i can't get these ads because of some of the things you tweet >> i'm reminded of the -- see it in the "princess bride."

great movie. >> great movie. >> where he confronts the person who killed his father, and he says, offer me money offer me power i don't care >> so you just don't care? you want to share what you have to say >> i'll say what i want to say, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it. >> our next guest is a long-time tesla bull pushing back on musk's decision to, of course, respond on x saying musk, quote, has to stop the anti-semitic remarks before he damages the tesla brand. joining us now is gary black, future fund managing partner we've gone down this road in a different way in the past when we had a conversation just about the amount of time and effort he was spending on twitter when he was acquiring the company and running it, concerned you a bit

at that point. how much does this concern you at this point with just what continues to be the decisions by him to engage on these controversial topics that seem to alienate a lot of people? >> well, look, we're investment managers and we get paid to find stocks that are going to triple over the next five years our view is, despite remarks like he made, which we don't like, and i can't, you know, embrace what he said or even condone it at all, i think the stock is still a great stock because ev adoption today is 12 and it's going to go to 60 over the next seven years tesla right now has about 16% share of that ev space, and with cyber truck, a refreshed model 3 and a $25,000 vehicle, we think it can still, you know, grow its volumes 30 to 35% a year as a growth manager, i cannot find stocks that have volume growth of 30 to 35% a year, earnings growth at 40% a year

trading at 40 times. the investment question we have to ask is, will this impact the brand? i don't know if it's anti-semitic what he said or not. i don't know if that's -- it's true, but what i'm trying to figure out as an investor, is it going to impact the brand and cause consumers with charging convenience and safety and performance and the technology, are they going to be saying, hey, it's run by a ceo who, you know, embraced a post that talked about, you know, hatred of one group versus another. >> right. >> i think at the end of the day consumers will evaluate the product on its merits and not on the ceo. >> you're not worried? i said this rerm i know a number of people who are close to musk. they don't think it's he's an anti-semite. >> i don't. >> i don't either. >> he encourages by choosing to either post or point to certain

tweets and the like. but you don't seem to think it's going to matter in terms of people's willingness to embrace the brand? >> i think at the end of the day, tesla has a best in class product. they're the best at manufacturing. they can drive costs down the quickest they've shown an ability to figure out what consumers are going to want long before gm, ford, stellantis and everybody else i think that's going to continue i don't want to comment on whether his comment was anti-semitic or not. i don't know if that's important. i don't think the consumer at the end of the day is going to hold the ceo's comments in their what i call purchase decision of whether to buy a tesla i could be wrong that to me at the end of the day is important to think about. >> the decision about whether to buy a tesla or any ev seems to be about price and charging network and how convenient it may be seems to be a growing consensus,

maybe not the right word, but concern that ev growth is slowing. you don't seem to share that concern? >> the data doesn't support that, david. when you look at the data and, you know, we publish it every quarter, you can see that in the third quarter ev adoption, globally, is at 12% and the fourth quarter it's growing nicely so could you say the growth has slowed yeah it's slowed, but it's not going down as long as you continue to see, as you've seen in norway and netherlands and china, as long as ev adoption grows from do the math 12% globally to 60, our forecast, but others have forecasts that are similar between now and 2030, you will get 35% volume growth. the question is how much is pricing going to come down by? cyber truck is going to be priced at the end of the month, 70 thousand dollars vehicle. so while i think you are going to see pressure on pricing, you're going to see offsetting products like cyber truck that will cause prices to continue to move higher, average selling

price, and i think that big investment question is, have gross margins bottomed they hit 16% as you know they took pricing down have we seen the last of it? what we've seen the last couple weeks prices go the other way. they've had three separate price hikes in china and the rumor is they have another one next week. as long as i believe that, a, ev adoption continues to grow from 12 to 60, which is what we're thinking, and b, the gross margins have bomds, you want to be in the stock at 55 times earnings, regardless of what what elon musk is saying i think also that elon is a smart guy. i've seen him in the past where he'll say something that's not so smart and will delete his post i wouldn't be surprised to see him not talk about this topic for a while. he has 120,000 that work at tesla that depend on the tesla brand staying the strongest in class, and i don't think he wants to hurt those 120,000 people if all of a sudden the

consumer is saying, i'm not going to buy tesla because the ceo is making dumb comments. >> we've said many times, and he knows he would be better served not engaging in these things and chooses to do so it's part of his overall reckless abandon to take on risks wherever he sees it. end it there for now thank you. >> thanks, david still to come, marriott ceo anthony capuano live with me in vegas. all the top ceos are here and increasingly becoming sponsors of formula 1 and the teams we'll talk about that, the consumer as well, and more on what he's seeing on travel demand when we're back in just a moment kids moving back in after college. ♪ finally we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna...♪ and then we looked around and said, wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller! (laughing) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mhm. cool...i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything!

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it's that simple! call now and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. tiny, branch, poppy on another musical adventure. you see that button? yeah. press it. hold onto your cupcakes. ♪ ♪ ooh! too much hustle is a thing. look at that. welcome back to "squawk on the street." the formula 1 race boosting the vegas economy in what is otherwise a quieter period for vegas heading into the thanksgiving holiday with some forecasts estimating it will generate $1.3 billion of impact stimulating everything from

casinos to hotels on the strip joining us is one beneficiary of the race, in many ways, marriott ceo anthony capuano. great to see you you're a sponsor of the mercedes. >> we are. >> f1 team were you at practice last night? that was a bummer. >> i was more importantly i was at your premier. >> oh, yes. >> congratulations >> thank you. >> what a great program. >> by the way, if you missed "inside track" it airs again tonight at 8:00 p.m. on cnbc. >> great insight into what a complicated business it is. >> that's what i want to talk to you about, because one of the issues we explored here is how many companies are getting involved, want to put their names on the cars, but it's not just about the sticker on the car. it's about more than that. what is the strategy here for you? >> a few things. obviously, we're a global business we operate in 139 countries. we've got 20 additional countries in the pipeline behind that there may be no more global sport enterprise than formula 1.

it's really compatible with the nature of our business when we look at the nature of our loyalty program, bonvoy, what those members crave is experiences. i think about what's going to go on this weekend and the ability for those members to sit in the ritz-carlton silver arrow lounge, to interact with toto wolff and lewis hamilton and george russell, once-in-a-lifetime unique experiences and these partnerships unlock those experiences. >> can you quantify the r.o.i. >> i'm sure we could do the math what it represents is moving a loyalty platform from a transactional relationship with our customers to a much more emotional relationship. >> it's also increasingly a hospitality business, everything around - >> no question. >> formula 1 i'm curious what you've got planned and how you plan to intertwine some of your overall strategy with races like vegas, which they've never done before, it's bigger than ever, if they can get the track fixed. >> for us, one of the things

that is so exciting here, you, obviously, know a few months ago, we announced our new partnership with mgm the mgm collection with bunonvo. this weekend is going to be a long-term, exciting intersection with of mgm for the next decade here on the las vegas strip. >> outside of big sporting events like this, what does demand look like for this kind of leisure vacation fun travel >> well, leisure was the segment that led us through the recovery from the pandemic. i get lots of questions about whether we've seen the end of that we just did third quarter earnings and we saw global leisure demand up 9% we don't see a tailing off at all. as we go into the holiday season in the u.s., we see strong forward bookings leisure continues to be strong especially in the luxury tier.

one of the big advantages we have, we have the largest global luxury footprint, largest global luxury pipeline and we continue to see remarkable strength and demand. >> do you think it's still pent-up demand from covid or is there a new normal here about how we prioritize spending >> no question we obviously have great relationships with our credit cards, jpmorgan chase, and with the pandemic, with some of the younger demographics we saw this pivot away from consumption of hard goods towards experiences it sure looks, when we evaluate the data today, that the pandemic acted as an accelerant to that trend across demographics perhaps people realized during the pandemic, i don't need another watch, another pair of shoes, i don't need another handbag but i want to explore the world, travel, immerse myself in new cultures and cuisines and explore these unique experiences. >> i think a lot of people can

relate to that what about globally, tony, are you seeing an impact, and we've heard this from a number of travel companies, like bookings, the geopolitical events, what's happening in the middle east, have people rethink where they're going and what they're doing? >> there's no question that travel thrives best in times of stability. when you have sociopolitical instability, unrest -- >> they want to stay home. >> not necessarily but they may change or modify where they're going. the challenges and the tragedy we see in the middle east right now, we are seeing some cancellations, we're seeing some movement to other parts of the world. those markets represent less than 1% -- >> are you talking about trips to israel -- >> israel and some of the surrounding middle east countries. but in the third quarter, we saw international rev par up 22% demand for international destinations remains strong. >> how much is asia and what's

happening with the recovery there? >> asia was the strongest set of submarkets, as you might expect. some of that strength is because they have really favorable comps, of course china is now fully recovered and what's exciting to me about that, it's fully recovered with only about 50% of international air lift back to pre-pandemic levels so, much of china's recovery is on the shoulders of domestic demand so, we think there's significant upside as more and more international air lift returns, both inbounds and outbounds. >> china's fully recovered, despite the fact we get estee lauder doesn't seem like they're recovered -- >> our rev par is back up beyond pre-pandemic levels in china. >> we did see in the cpi report there was a decline in hotel prices that was unexpected. >> we did a security analyst conference i think what we expect over the next couple of years is we'll see global rev par settle into a

bit more normalized pattern. we laid out a three-year plan where we expect global rev par to be between 3% and 6%. maybe not the 20%, 30% we've seen over the last couple of years through the early days of the recovery, but really strong, steady rev par growth. what we said during the analyst meeting is we expect that rev par growth to be a combination of both occupancy and rate recovery so, we do think there's still some measure of pricing power. >> even if we go into a recession, i'm not saying we're going to, but there is increasing data that the economy is weakening >> well, again - >> globally. >> when we look at something like the group segment, which is the one where we have the most forward visibility, because of the length of the booking pattern, group was up 12% year over year in the third quarter so, we do think there's a lot of resilience to that. >> and very quickly, are hotels going to get built with pressure here on relief -- pressure relief on rates and maybe in lending conditions

>> yeah. it's one of the biggest challenges we have right now, particularly in the u.s. and western europe there's an enormous amount of skrikz in debt markets for new construction that's one of the reasons you see us so focused on conversion activity. >> that's not opening up just yet? >> not as much as we would like. >> tony, good to get a business update and always talk formula 1 with you tony capuano, ceo of marriott. tune in next hour. we have an interview with another new sponsor of formula 1, ceo of t-mobile, exclusive wireless provider at the las vegas grand prix mike sievert joins us in the 11:00 hour please join us for "inside track: the business of formula 1. >> great advice for those that might have missed it last night. gap now on pace for the best day ever at one point this morning, david, as we got 59 cents crushing the 19 cent estimates

comps were better. some of these comps at old navy down one, estimate down 8. i know jim was invoking it is mickey name earlier this morning. >> it's a long time ago, of course, that this was one of the most important retailers in the country, given how many gaps were out there, being at the sort of important place in terms of fashion trends, even led at that point this is a long time ago, of course by then the ceo, mickey drexler you're right, that's a hefty increase in market cap in this earnings season, it's appeared going into these prints, to be better positioned in the challenged retailers than the ones who seem to be more dominant obviously, walmart shares were down after the quarter, but target, macy's and gap all showing significant gains after what had been some difficult periods. >> yeah. target, of course, the best s&p of the week. next week we'll get a few more in the specialty space we will get nordstrom and lowe's

and kohl's, best buy, anf. we do see some chop at the end of earnings season >> it's been an interesting time for those retailers. and as sara talks, the reflection of the consumer when it comes to earnings next week, of course, nvidia's earnings will be probably the most important that's fairly easy to admit at this point "squawk on the street" has a lot reomg t nt urmo cininheexho we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank. we are citi. ♪♪ you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid

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snoou good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen in las vegas amid a broad based rally, energy is the only sector this week with oil dipping into a bear market goldman lays out three reasons to get bullish. the backlash at x. advertisers want answers about the placement of their ads and what the expect is doing to combat anti-semitic messages on the platform the white house weighing in. what's the impact for elon musk's other companies we'll discuss. the ceo of t-mobile joins me in las vegas, a new sponsor of