watch this name. >> municipal bonds great yields and a lot better fiscal stability in munici municipalities >> joe >> the recovery in lalar is spectacular. >> "the exchange" is next. hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. elon musk once again in hot water over his tws tweets. musk has insisted he doesn't care what others think there's only one thing that would change that, he tells us what that is ahead plus, has the fed won the inflation fight but lost the recession battle our guest says yes one does, but the other says no. that debate coming up. and china's chief retail apps

they're playing by different rules and gaining market share from u.s. brands we'll look at the names most at risk but first, let's get to today's market with dom chu. >> sit a mixed bag, but the gains we're seeing is modest joefr all for the s&p. believe it or not, if we stay green for the s&p, it would be four straight days of gains. the dow just about flat on the session. 34,921 the s&p 500, 4511, up three pointing again, we were up roughly five points at the highs, down nine at the lows. that gives you an idea of the trading range. the nasdaq up seven pointis. it's been an eventful week when it comes to interest wrates. just a little above 4.44%. we have seen a massive fullback that we have seen in rates since the mid to third week of october highs.

remember, 5.02 was the cycle high so far. to put nit in other tells, for those that use etfs, the price of the i-shares 20 plus stvtlt s up a half percent today. from october 23rd lows to here, you're talking about this etf gaining 10% in value just since october 23rd so dollar amounts instead of rates. and if you are looking at the stocks that have done the heavy lifting in this rally, it wasn't that long ago we talked about the magnificent seven selling off from some of the highs they have come back in full force. nvidia, apple, microsoft among the biggest gainers so far this month alone. so kelly, if you're looking for that kind of mugsle memory, investors, when they see a discount on any of these mega tech cap names, they step back in there i don't know what to make

of it or how long it lasts, but technology still reigns surpeople. >> the most crowded trade is still this one dom, thank you very much let's talk about the economy now. our hopes for a year-end rally set to be dashed by bad data my next guest warns the rise in jobless claims means a recession is coming. the other says not so fast let's bring in my guests now steve liesman joins us, as well. chris, i'll start with you how serious is the recent backup in both initial and continuing jobless claims >> well, for all these leading endindicato indicators, turning points in the economy that people have researched decade after decade, there's always some uncertainty out there, of course but the most immediately, timeliest indicators are the weekly jobs claims data.

right now, it looks like it's picking up a little in a worrisome manner so once continuing claims is the most leading indicator, and continuing in the unemployment rate it looks like, as i like to say, it's kind of get ready, get set, go right now, we're getting ready, getting set. you know, it's looking like it could be a possible recession. >> right as you titled your note, american also be having recession this thanksgiving. greg, you're not so sure that the dreaded event is coming. why? >> i think it's clear that we're seeing a slowdown in economic activity i think chris is right to point out the labor market it's been the key pillar in terms of economic activity we are seeing a softening in terms of employment growth but that softening is not as pronounced as we would start to

worry about. the key question going into 2024 is how pronounced that slowdown will be. if it's controlled, the value of talent remains elevated and business leaders preserve talent to navigate this uncertainty and we won't see a recession if morale shifts and we see more pronounced layoffs, that's going to impact income, directly affecting consumer spending, which has been quite resilient until now. >> steve, i keep thinking our discussion with claudia, and her line towards the end of that interview where she says the reason why she based her little recession metric off the unemployment rate. once it rises, it keeps going. right now, this half point rise doesn't feel like the end of the world, except for the fact that it usually keeps going, and we seem to be the most likely case now. >> that's the question is a lot of data. one thing i've been watching

closely, the delinquency data. it's risen to the prepandemic highs. you don't know where it stops. look, i came on this show, mostly to listen, kelly. i was hoping that between chris and greg, i was going to know which way to lean. most of this past year, i haven't been in a recession camp, and it's been the right call but what's gotten me more nervous is the rise in interest rates, and knowing that consume ers ers are feeling this one thing that's not mentioned is the extent to which rates remain high and companies have to refinance their low pandemic era debt into those higher rates. if the fed can ease back just in time before we hit some of those refinancing cliffs, i think we might avoid it but if a lot of companies have to refinance and consumers as well, into those higher rates, then i think we risk a potential

recession. >> chris, that was the argument we are getting into with bill lee a little yesterday he want it s the fed to wait un they pivot but if you want to save a hard e landing, you have to act quickly before you see the weakness in the economy showing up what can the fed do to keep us from going into recession? >> they can't do a whole lot i think a lot of times, fed officials over the years have felt the need to slash interest rates very quickly, get them down very fast i think over time, we've learned that that's kind of a mistake. usually when we go into a recession, companies aren't looking to borrow. they don't care how fast the fed lowers interest rates. i think it's a mistake they should cut rate it is they're going to, just very gradually. and at the moment, of course,

they still have one more rate hike on the board for this year. i have to admit, i was shocked that all of a sund we get a 0.2% core cpi rating after two months of 0.3%. all of a sudden people think the fed's done and in europe they're looking for 100 basis points of rate cuts in europe. i don't know how this got going. >> listen, to be honest, i don't think anyone is responding to the cpi as if that one month changed things it just opens the door it's all the people concerned that the business cycle is concerning and we could go into a hard landing the krvcpi is a way of -- don'tu think, steve >> yeah, but -- >> i still think -- >> sorry, chris, go ahead. >> i think they made a mistake by, you know, waiting too long to raise interest rates. they had a target of trying to

return the unemployment rate back down. for inflation here, i think they really need to be cautious, as well it's going to be very difficult for them to get inflation down to exactly 2.0 maybe it's 3.0 but i think they should be cautious here in cuts rates >> greg? >> the outlook for inflation is optimistic we will likely continue to have disinflation as we continue to see this downward pressure from easing demand for goods and services, we continue to see this pressure on profit margins as we saw in the ppi data those are all very strong fundamentals in terms of inflationary dynamics. the fed will talk about a pivot

next year, but it is going to consider easing monetary policy. we'll talk about policy recalibration to provide a little more stimulus to economic activity so that's where the positive growth story can come from >> i find it interesting that you're more bullish on the economy but dovish on the inflation, and chris is hawkish on inflation steve, quick last word here. >> you know, i kind of agree with both sides. i think chris is right that the market went overboard in terms of its extrapolation from this one-month number the data doesn't behave in a linear fashion the way the market wants it to there will be ups and downs. there are going to be challenges to this notion about the fed being done i've had a chance to talk to two fed officials. neither is willing to give it up just yet at the same time, i think greg is probably right, that come the january or february, the fed

will have to have a talking with the market and say okay, if we're done here, and the data has been well behaved, here is the next phase that next phase is going to include some cuts. there could be two reasons for that, as we have discussed one is because if the fed does not cut and inflation comes down, it will become relatively tighter. a second listen is the fed doesn't have to remain quite as tight as it's been to tamp down inflation. >> i'll leave it with bank of america's michael harden said, the move from 5 to 4 is bullish, but from 4% to 3% would be more of a dovish outcome. for now, we're at 4.44%. thank you all very much today. appreciate it. speaking of yields, the ten-year has been dropping quickly, falling below 4.4% today, compared with over 5% a monago as to where rates next, the tug of war was addressed on

"squawkbox" earlier today. >> i think the rate structure is going to be staying at its level, perhaps slightly less there's a range of uncertainty around that having to do with the supply/demand question we're at a period of time where the supply of bonds to be sold will be -- start hitting the market >> my next guest says the november rally in stocks has been the flipside of those falling rates. can stocks keep moving higher from here? joining me now is the cio of the bonson group good to see you again, david what is your response to that debate and this tug of war between stocks and rates >> i was listening carefully to that bull/bear debate, particularly on inflation. i simply believe that the inflation rate has a two-handle now. i don't understand why more people are not talking about the difference between the cpi read on shelter versus every market

read on shelter that we have about ten different surveys that show rent growth is really about zero percent and cpi saying it's 7% but that's 34% of cpi. so we can all do the math. it's adding about 1.8% to the headline inflation number, which means you're below a two handle headline and and 2.5 on the core rate maybe the rent growth is 3%, not zero the numbers are still right around fed target, and certainly going to be there in q1 of next year >> so you're dovish, maybe you're bearish how does this shake out for you in terms of investments? >> agree question. i don't believe the inflation debate lends itself to a bullish or bearish -- as far as dovishness with fed poll circumstances i hate dovishness, because i don't like overaccommodation. zero interest policy, i hope we never see that again

it's highly disfortive and leads to a boom that follows with a bust what i do believe is that we have weak economic growth. we have had it for 15 years, and i don't think there's any real significant pro-growth boom coming on, which requires investors to be more diligent. not begging for pvshe ratios too higher but rather good, organic cash flow growth. that's why i think boring dividend growth investors like us are doing so well in this environment. it's a very good period for fundamentals >> a lot of the stocks you like have yields of 4% to 5%. we're talking about ken view even ibm is in here and blual. you think this is a private credit play? it seems like there could be a lot of problems there.

>> we're very bullish on that, meaning the amount of fees generated by having risk takers lend opposed to regional banks this started post crisis, it's not going anywhere there will be more defaults in the future, but asset managers, you know, blackstone and apollo are in that space, too but blual is very dedicated in this space around private credit, raising good money around real estate lenders banks aren't doing it, but asset managers are doing it's a good model, even if there's losses >> i suppose i like it in concept as well, but i haven't seen what the other side looks like so i'm a little nervous to see how exactly that all shakes out. but just to circle back to your point, david, do you expect -- if you think the november rally

for stocks is the flip side of falling bond yields, should we expect it to keep going or not here with the ten-year down at 4.45 >> here's what i would say i don't have an opinion about what the stock market will do in the next month but if you believe the stocks are going to continue going higher, you east very to believe bond yields will keep going lower or stocks will go higher for a different reason but i don't think it's controversial that is the reason stocks have moved higher in the last several weeks why they went lower in october so they've been correlated with the bond market. i don't see that correlation breaking up any time soon. but i think that perhaps the market is going to be responding more to the short end of the curb instead of the long end as we go into '24 now you're getting the opposite issue where bond yields are going lower, everyone likes that but maybe it's because the economic weakness narrative is coming back. so it's a complicated period until we're on the other side of

this fed cycle, i don't think it will be easy >> david, thank you so much. we appreciate it >> thanks, kelly coming up, the strength of the consumer will decide the fade of retail stocks this holiday season we'll look at three names to buy and one to avoid first, elon musk facing backlash for boosting an anti-semitic tweet we'll look at the danger for the social media giant and advertising ambitions, next on "the exchange. ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home...

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elon musk amplified a tweet about an anti-semitic conspiracy theory he told our david faber back in may, i'll say what i want to say, and if we lose money, so be it x says it's taken steps to suitability controls on the platform, saying that x is not intentionally placing a brand actively next to this type of content, nor is a brand actively trying to support this content with placement nonetheless, ad revenue decldeclirn -- declined every month since musk bought twitter. revenues have fallen 3535% joining me now are my guests

it's good to have you guys both here sam, what is the thought in the valley about all this? >> i mean, isn't it kind of business as usual? you know, i think it's really disappointing to see these words. musk has a history of saying some awful things. you know, i think the reality is, he owns twitter outright, and the only thing that changes how musk behaves is the price of tesla stock. people don't like it, they can sell tesla stock he can afford to float this forever. >> i saw that there's only a couple ways to exert pressure. that is sell your tesla. if you're an employee, you say quit even if you're part of the broader musk empire. is the idea that everyone is feeling frustrated with his behavior and can't seem to find a way to get him to stop it even as it seems to be self-sabotage?

>> yeah. the way i think about it, i am a huge freedom of speech belief. a lot of the principles that he bought twitter on, people should say what they believe, i'm with him on all that. he's not totally wrong about everything but part of the unintended calculus is you empower a voice who says some terrible things all the time, with very little sense of consequence it's good that he's so rich and powerful he can't be swayed. it's bad that he's so rich and powerful that nothing will affect how he chooses to speak himself, other than, one, doing what public market people can do, which is don't own tesla or two, you know, if you are an employee, it used to be that musk is not known as a great employer, but if you want to be in space, you work at spacex if you want to work on electric cars, you work at tesla. that's where the mission was but the world is changing.

engineers have other options they didn't have before and they should take them >> brian, let's bring you in here i'm curious what you think are the ramifications for musk himself and the empire that he controls >> it's death by a thousand cuts at least reputation al cuts by a thousand cuts. that's the reality for musk now in the court of public opinion but he seems to only care about his far right friends. can this platform ensure brand safety the answer is absolutely not i think that has to be internalized by some of these companies. yes, ibm has pulled, some other companies are re-evaluating advertising decisions. but a lot of companies are still providing free world contempt for elon musk. when the european commission came out and said we're advising folks not to be advertising

right now, x's response was looks like your accounts are still posting on xm >> how point of a platform is x still? for all of the disrun fors and for threads and all the rest, plenty of people saying i'm leaving twitter, going to threads. are they really losing market share? do they still have the significance that it did a year ago? >> i think the reality now is, you're having to do more on more platforms, but x is still central to the conversation for media. that's why sam posted on x it is still that hub it has 15 years of relationships and networking baked in it musk knows that and betting that he can get away with everything except murder. >> sam, your thoughts on the

long-term? i know you were very bullish on x when it started. people are still engaging on it. i see updates, but has the lack of advertising changed the significance of twitter as a platform, what do you think? >> yeah, look, first, it will take a while this is what facebook does they will grind it out and will be a successful platform and we will post to it. twitter is not going to die, and the reality is, twitter has always been an incredible product and a terrible business. with musk owning it, it will be a sticky product, hard to kill, and a terrible business. i think that's fine for someone of his wealth to support forever. the people who were silly enough to buy the debt are going to watch the value go down and down and down, and maybe if he makes

it crazy enough, they can buy it back i think twitter is good and it's an important platform. it's just a terrible business. >> yeah. as you say, hard to kill that's been true over the past year, decespite his best efforts coming up, less than 36 hours away from the las vegas grand prix we'll get a live report from the strip as vegas tries to make the transition from sin city to sports city. that's all ahead and here's a glance at markets with the dow trying to turn positive, down ten points. back in a moment there's challenges, and i love overcoming challenges. ♪

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update israel's war cabinet agreed to allow around 370,000 gallons of fuel into gaza every two days. u.s. and israeli officials announced the policy today as the region faces shortages that are threatening aid deliverying and communication and the delivery of medical services officials said the fuel will go to u.n. aid trucks. some of the fuel will power generators for telecommunications companies the u.s. and the philippines signed a landmark deal today, allowing washington to ex-port nuclear materials and technology to manila. philippines president said it could become part of the country's energy profile by 2032 meanwhile, a 6.7 earthquake rocked the southern tip of the

country. social media videos show pools sloshing and ceiling falling in malls. at least one person reportedly killed authorities say dozens were injured on the tip of the philippines. kelly, back to you >> tyler, thanks coming up, we're wrapping up a big retail earnings week with three buys and a bail. and check out shares of gap, which are soaring, up 30% and on face for their best day ever we're talking about a $17 stock, but sales of old navy offset some weakness. interesting change there the company reaffirming full-year guidance, still expects holiday quarter sales to be flat. that's how sentiment is in the 'lta a wel ke closer look atfou more retailers after the break but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup,

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welcome back a slew of retail earnings this week have given investors a look at how stretched the consumer is feeling. which of the retail names you can safely buy now, like gap i suppose. and which should you be sure to avoid? let's find out here with our trades is victoria green.

great to have you. your first buy is walmart, which was consensus until yesterday. shares are flat today. they did beat on the top and bottom lines, strong grocery and e-commerce driving that. so stick with it >> absolutely. they're the only retailer punished for saying what everybody else said, we're worried or consumer is slowing down even target seems to be saying we can lower sales, have less traffic, have slower sales, and they went up 20% walmart grew sales and traffic and were punished. it doesn't make sense. a quality company, they lean into grocery they saw e-commerce expand i think if you are seeing the value conscious consumer, walmart is the place you want to be >> you also like ross stores they just reported the off price retailer and they topped street estimates on both the top and bottom linings yesterday

they had robust demand, they had easing freight costs heading into the holiday shopping season and the shares up 8% right now >> yeah. ross is definitely one i would hold or buy. it's about the value they're providing, and their ability to grow their top line. they expanded margins, they still have a very conservative guidance and outlook it seemed if you read through management commentary, they're saying hey, we want to keep that guidance 1% to 2% sales growth but it could be up 5%, and their eps growth, they ranged it up to 6.1%, that's till 30 cents growth over what they saw in q3. they saw a little lower prices, but people are putting more items in the basket. so the consumer is looking to them for value if you are squeezed and looking for clothing, you might be looking at ross than say target. >> i've got to find some holes to poke in this story, even as i

have another order costco, they don't report q1 until mid december but they hit a 52-week high, even though walmart is down. market growth has to come from somewhere. what do you think about costco, definite buy >> i'm a costco member, full disclaimer but they have a cult following and they are cracking down on the members. i don't know if you've been, there but they're checking the picture on the card. that can drive further membership gains, that could add $4.2 billion a year in revenue growth so if you are seeing shoppers load up for the holidays, buying good, wine, great grocery selections you'll see more and more traffic go there

that will be pulling from say a target or kroger as you look for the bulk deals to feed your families over the holidays yes, october sales were slower the traffic was up only 2% versus the 5% they had been doing earlier. but they can still have same-store growth. >> i thought it would be a cool thing to do, we can't buy single stocks you can buy everything that you paid for in real life and recycle the cash flows back to yourself so maybe buy costco, i don't know, exxon, maybe -- you know, it goes out of one hand and then comes back in the other. >> that's a good way to justify our spending, absolutely >> exactly those all three were your buys you do have a name that you would bail on, it's home depot much like wal-mart and target, there was a weak outlook

>> no participation trophy their earnings were not that great. they saw a drop in sales, seeing a slowdown they're seeing less of big ticket items, even flooring and cabinets are not selling as much people got excited because we said eps is only going to fall 3 to 4% versus 5%. i am not buying the fact on this 11% bounce that it's worth that. they are freely admitting the macro, especially on the home improvement market and its share of the consumer spending you're going to potentially see the home improvement record get a small percentage of that consumer spend just a hard stock to justify right now. investors are like, it wasn't that horrible. it wasn't that great and you gave them a 11% bop.

>> this feels like it's in the middle of a tug of war, and it's year-to-date performance suggests that, as well down about 3%. i like you're bold, though victoria, thank you for joining us >> thanks, kelly coming up, is sin city becoming sports city contessa brewer has a look at how vegas is trying to transform itself >> it is a city transformed, kelly, because we are seeing the barrieris up effiveryeverywhere everything is focused on the las vegas strip and those cars whipping around. the question is, will it pay off? with ticket prices plummeting and room rates falling, can sports city still deliver? we're back right after this. i was on a work trip when

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welcome back the $500 million las vegas formula 1 grand tee is tomorrow at 10:00 p.m that's hardly the only sporting event sin city is hosting. constesa brewer has a look how vegas is putting itself on the map. contessa >> reporter: you are right that is 1:00 a.m i hope you set your alarm. city leaders are counting on f-1 to help cement them as a sports city it matters to the money this place brings in. international visitation has been slow to recover, post pandemic but the f-1 fan base, they're international travelers. they're influential, affluent, and willing to spend >> the mayweather fight, the

biggest sporting event here. but now, they're having to park in arizona, california, utah, even some of those airports are getting full from an mgm perspective, we had to bring in four charters and preposition them to be able to sustain that operation >> reporter: there's a lot of skepticism about that $1.3 billion economic impact expectation, because ticket prices are plummeting, room rates are falling. what we have been told by the ceost , their expectations have been met by the people who prebooked. but exclude f-1. in 2018, visitors to vegas spent over $800 per trip the 5-5 raiders fuel visitation from football fans, and you have the mlb owners voting to bring the a's here

visitor spending is up 40% since 2018 ye, you have post pandemic demand, you have inflation but vegas is betting its future is on sports as the big draw. kelly? >> i think it makes sense. obviously. because it's a great mecca it's a little bittersweet. i don't know what word to use. the formula one thing. i'm not there, you tell me i hear about $30 room rates. i hear about a botched practice thing. now you tell me the race starts at 1:00 a.m. eastern what am i missing? >> reporter: there was a hiccup with the manhole cover on the raceway itself, so they had to delay the practice it did tear up a car, that's unfortunate. but you had the chief of mercedes saying, look, it's not a big deal these things happen. i talked to the red bull guy, team members they said every time there's a

brand new race in a city, there are these little things that have to be worked through. the room rates, that's real. in fact, the room that i booked six months ago was $1200 you can now get a room there for $200 that's a real thing. but what i've been told is that we have the f-1 crowd come in and book now we have to fill the rest of those rooms, a couple hundred thousand visitors, who may have been scared off by thinking it's f-1 weekend and we can't afford everything so they didn't book. >> so, again, the husband is a raiders fan, so i've been following their move to vegas and watching how the stands are often filled with more visitors from the away team than the home team to visitors. it's a fun trip. let's go to i ha if you look at what happens

with the golden knights and the amount of fervor and passion surrounding the hockey team in this town, there are rabid golden knight fans, and they have to vie with the tourists who come in for those tickets, which is in the heart of the las vegas strip, which localis don' make a habit of viz itting the strip. number two, when you look at mlb bringing a baseball team in here, where you -- what do you have, like 12 football games per season, how many of those at home you don't have to fill the stadium that much. but for a baseball stadium, you are going to have to have the hometown crowd in and really married to the baseball team in order to keep those seats filled you'll still get tourists coming in to see their favorite team play here, but there's a lot more games and seats to fill >> my favorite anecdote is our

producer, mpaul, was out there and thought he would catch the game he asked a couple of cab drivers to take them to the wnba game and they didn't even know they had a wnba team. >> women sports, they've been back-to-back champs. i don't know that's ever been done before. and here you have this championship team. how can you be local and not know that you have back-to-back winners? come on, guys. >> usually, the fans will follow the trophies thank you very much. it looks like a lot of fun out there. still ahead, $1 billion, that's how much burnstein represents temu has spent. that's next.

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welcome back shares of pin duo duo with w beating amazon i hear about them all the time now. deirdre has more details in

today's tech check. >> this is a story that i just can't get enough of, because it has been so remarkable, you previewed just how rapid temu's rise has been in the united states, and it seems without regulators even blinking twice, given how focused they are on tiktok temu has grown much faster in terms of downloads morgan stanley estimated that one in four american online consumers have shopped at temu bernstein is out with a new note and they called it "the world is not enough" and that is a nod to the quick rise they go through the winners and losers and pretty much everyone has been focused on temu for some time because they have been a phenomenon they talk about -- and this is one interesting point, about how temu could become profitable because it's taken a different approach to e-commerce by gamifying the experience and offering deep discounts. but bernstein talks about how it used that playbook in china and

went from negative 100% margins to positive 60% margins, which is just a huge leap in how it could essentially employ and is employing that playbook here in the united states, which would be certainly a threat to a lot of talk about the dollar stores, but amazon as well and who would benefit? the advertising giants remember the commercials, shop like a billionaire bernstein estimates they could be spending a billion plus on platforms, snapchat, pinterest, a huge amount of money coming into their coffers if you are interested in this story, we did a deep dive for one of our tech check weeklies on the ecosystem, how it could displace amazon at cnbc.com/techcheck. >> i will check it out thank you very much. we've got the bernstein guy to

talk more about the impact of these chinese fashion apps mark, it's good to have you with us let me start with the eye-catching number. is it true that temu has spent a billion dollars on digital advertising? >> thanks for having me. we don't know if it's a billion, we know three quarters in a row we've heard meta call out strength of chinese-based advertisers, and when we track the basket, it's temu, shein, there's a clear indication that that cohort has significantly ramped up their spend, particularly in the u.s., but also across europe and the rest of the apec region to drive adoption and sales they've been spending very aggressively and temu has been leading the charge in terms of total dollars spent and we think it could well be north of a billion dollars. >> incredible figures. and we're going to talk about who benefits from that you're not a retail analyst but old navy did all right this

quarter. you do concede and others could tell us more granularly, but they are taking share from u.s. retailers, no? >> they certainly are. we've seen some dollars shift from offline to online we always forget how immature e-commerce is in the united states if we go back to 1999 and took an internet poll and said in 2023 e-commerce penetration would only be 17%, they would think the internet was a complete failure we've got a long way to go to capture those dollars online and certainly off price has been a category that's difficult to move online. we're finally seeing those dollars move over. >> you have some great charts and there's one on the screen. this is basically taking temu's side and putting it in context it shows up on the radar for walmart, it shows up for amazon, and these numbers could grow,

especially as these app download figures are really stunning. temu in particular, and also shein. who is the big beneficiary here? others might want to be a little wary of retailers until this shakes out, but you see direct beneficiaries. which stocks are they? >> i think the digital advertising cohort feels like a clear winner i get a lot of questions on is there a cliff, we went through this a couple years ago when tiktok was growing off of the platforms. i think there's a difference here i don't think there is necessarily the same cliff we saw with a social media name amazon is the largest advertiser on the planet. they spend somewhere north of $40 per prime subscriber each year in the u.s. when you're a transaction-based business, you've got to get folks to adopt it and try it out. i've bought a few things they want me to keep buying more and more things.

so digital ad dollars don't just disappear. i think they're here to stay. >> just quoting now bank of america, they think kohl's, gap could be at risk more directly as you're talking about the potential advertising beneficiaries. one interesting point to listen is that you think people were assigning temu a negative market value just a few months ago and the, quote, unquote, good news is that's moved up to zero how is that possible >> i think it's one of those things where when you innovate quietly, and i've certainly seen it with some of my own names, when you're kind of investing in the next big thing, there's a lot of dollars that were going into customer adoption we're seeing data that there is traction here. this may well stick around for quite a while. we ran some numbers that says on the margin basis, excluding the acquisition cost, they're profitable or break-even in the

united states. this is no longer a cash burn exercise it certainly feels like there's something substantial, potentially, at the end of this thing. >> that is interesting, they could be doing about $15 billion this year in gross merchandise volume mark, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it >> that does it for "t chge."he tyler is getting ready for "power lunch" and i'll see you on the other side of this break. ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank. we are citi. ♪♪

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