tiger woods new golf league hitting a snag before it tees off. the tgl is an indoor league where players hit into simulators a power outage led to the collapse of the dome i didn't know it was a simulated golf league. >> all right >> should be fun to watch. >> thanks for watching "power lun lunch.". >> "closing bell" starts right now. i'm scott wapner from post nine the fate of the rally, as stocks rise for a third consecutive week the only question, how long can it last? we'll ask our experts. there's your score card with 60 minutes to go. we're green across the board looks muted for sure, consider the week itself as the markets rallied in a big way, especially areas that have seen the love go elsewhere for the better part of this year. the equal weight s&p 500 up 3%

the russell up 5%. small caps finding a much-needed bid. love there from materials, industrials nice gainers as for tech, it's largely weighted on nvidia earnings. that stock rallying from nearly 4 $400 on halloween. now it's pushing $500. the energy sector is one of the weakest. crude is pulling back. it's having a nice move today, but look at the week up 1%. yields as well, they are continuing to come down. we'll keep our eye there over this final stretch ten-year at 4.43 the talk of the tape, the runway for the rally some say it's getting longer is that true let's ask dan here with us at post nine. is the bull case getting better? >> i think the bull case has been getting better for some time now

>> more credible >> sure. with respect to earnings this week, on balance there wasn't too much to worry about. there's a wide variety of retailers to have reported this week home depot, bath & body works, up and down the retail spectrum. and the talk for most of them is that there was a slowdown, not that there's nothing to worry about. on balance, i don't think that anybody gave me any indication that the consumer was suffering in a meaningful way. >> i'll veer way right and say the other side of that question is the bear case dead. how would you answer that? >> i don't think the bear case is dead. this is an important conversation that doesn't get discussed enough, which is two things can be true at once tactical and secular in the sense that over the course of this year, as a lot of us got more bullish, the idea wasn't that the bearish narrative was completely dead, it was that perhaps we were early to the case. over the course of the year, that increasingly proved to be

accurate what you have to think about going into the next year as you have a stock market up in the upper double digits and a lot of that from a performance standpoint-wise driven by the 7 or 10 largest stocks, how many of that bear case that has proven not yet to have materialized will start to come to fruition next year because you're starting to see a little bit of the indications that we were worried about a year ago. credit card delinquencies are moving in the wrong direction. jobless claims are ticking up. there's a couple things to hang your hat and say, well, maybe we're seeing inklings of the long-awaited slowdown. >> i wonder if we're starting to see the early inklings of a broader rally. s&p 500 equal weight, up 3%. russell staring me in the face, up 5.35% on the week these other dormant areas of the market have suddenly woken up. is it real >> i don't think they were

dormant. look at the home builders, basically back to highs. semiconductors as a group basically back to highs. a couple of them you can say they're broadening out, i don't think that's getting me more enthused if you have a broadening rally but you still have the hot area of the market, mega caps go up, you finally get some pickup from the underloved, underappreciated and just sitting there at a much cheaper valuation than the mega caps, that's like the dream scenario for the bulls >> yeah. it's probably -- we've seen it already obviously. my expectation is that it probably continues into early next year. but to your point about is the bull case dead no, because again, the federal reserve raised rates by a lot and that's presumably going to have some effects throughout the economy. it's outlook season from the sell side banks.

and i think at this point, it seems clear that the sell side is all in on the soft landing narrative. again, some of those things you started to see unfold, bear watching >> don't you think the fed is done are they saying anything that suggests otherwise >> no -- yes >> they're like, well, inflation has not come down far enough we have a long way to go >> but these are the same two conversations we've been having all year one is how much more do they have to raise? the second question is how long will they leave them up there. those are two different conversations? do they have to go more? maybe they raise one more time, maybe they raise two more times. i don't think that really has a meaningful effect on the broader landscape or my portfolio or the universal of my portfolio. >> what happens if inflation continues to trickle lower and that's the trajectory it's on and the economy rather than, you know, make sort of a steeper decline just sort of has a leveling off from this period of growth that we've ben in that's

surprised a lot of people, the resiliency of the economy certainly has been a shock, a surprise at best what happens if it levels off? >> that's the soft landing which is presumably excellent for equity and credit. >> is that a base case yet >> the street's base case is a soft landing >> what is the greenhaus best case what's the greenhaus effect? get it >> i do get it it's been 40 years of hearing that >> i could bring it back >> my base case is that at some point there's a price to pay i think the street is too cute by arguing you'll see a slowdown, but just enough. i think that's a difficult case to make. with all due respect to -- with all due credit to yan and the team at goldman, they were exactly right last year, more or less and they are arguing for a soft landing this year, so they deserve credit with how they're

seeing the landscape thus far they've seen it correctly. my view, the bias has been to the upside for several months now, it's probably to the upside for credit and equity for the next few months, but i'm watching those indicators, if they continue suggests that the price to pay will have arrived >> let's bring in greg branch of veritas and christina hooper i'll get to you in a second, greg christina, what do you make of what dan said? >> i agree with much of it but definitively the fed is done hiking rates >> okay. >> because we know it's not the start of cuts that is the beginning of strong performance, it's actually the end of rate hikes that we tend to see the 12 months after strong performance. in five out of the last six rate hike cycles we saw double digit gains from the s&p 500 in the 12 months after those rate hikes.

july, i would argue, was the end of this rate height cycle. to your question about the economy and the outlook, i agree that it's hard to imagine a scenario where it's truly a soft landing. that suggests no economic damage i don't believe in a hard landing either if you think about it, where rate hikes ended, if they did end in july was a 3.57% unemployment rate. that's significantly lower than any other end of tightening cycle unemployment rate. that suggests we could be in better shape but we have to recognize the long and variable lags in monetary policy. still doing damage, it was an aggressive rate hike cycle i think we will see areas of weakness where growth comes under pressure but overall the picture is no broad-based recession. we get through this, but it's bumpy. there is some damage >> but you sound bullish, though >> i am bullish because we have to disconnect markets from the economy. markets are already starting to look out, in my opinion, to an

economic recovery that will unfold in the second half of '24. that's why, for example, this week while stocks have been up in general, small cap value has been a better performer than the other areas of the stock market. >> that's what i was referring to finally you have the s&p 500 on the week up 2% the russell 2000 up 5.3. greg branch, are you moved off of your bearish perch at all by what this market has done? it defied the view of you and many others who have been in your camp. >> yeah, a little bit. i want to address something. i don't know how we can be definitive about something that the fed is not definitive about. the fed has taken great pain over the last two weeks to stress two points to us. the first is that they're not definitive that they're done they want us to be definitive

that it depends on the data and they reserve the right to hike more if they so choose the other data point that is embedded in recovery in the back half of the year is that they will likely not have rate cuts last year. ckashkari said it the best that rate cuts are not embedded in reality. am i slightly more bullish than i used to be it hinges on one thing in this cpi report, the only thing that's been different from the last five cpi reports. we've seen 20 basis points before, we don't know if that's a new trend. the data would say it's not. the last time we saw 20 basis points, we jumped back into the trend of 30, 40 basis points right after. i think dan and i had a big argument when we saw that. the one thing that was different is we finally saw the breadth of disinflation widen we finally saw some disinflation

in the housing component am i willing to extrapolate a trend off of that? no, we shouldn't be extrapolating a trend off of any of this >> but you're -- you've decided that you've got a trend that you said ywaiting for the fed to be definitive that they weredone. they were definitive when they declared inflation transitory more than a year ago and they were wrong >> it was the biggest -- >> are you waiting for a signal now that they're done? by the time they say they're done, the train will be at the next station and you'll be walking with the jacket over your shoulder. >> i'm not -- i'm not necessarily saying that, scott what i actually said was that i don't know if we can be definitive if they're not. i'm not saying they're definitively going to raise. i'm saying it's hard for us to be definitive about what they're going to do if they don't know what they're going to do that's not positing any voracity to any one direction where they want to go >> i understand that, but they

keep saying well, we can afford now -- i'm paraphrasing. basically they've been saying policy is in a place now where we can afford to be patient. they're sort of dropping clues that they won't do anything more than likely next month, after that the market is priced out. maybe you think the market is crazy and wrong, but inflation is going in the direction which would suggest they don't have to do anything else >> let me not paraphrase what powell said is that the record suggests a sustainable return of 2% requires further softening in the labor market which we've seen a little of certainly less than the 4.4%, 4.5% they projected. i was the biggest proponent of what they were saying in terms of transitory in 2021. absolutely not do i take everything they say at face value. i can't be certain of a

direction until they come out with certainty >> greg, here's the problem i have solis manages money, not that we're the only ones, we need to invest for investors who demand a return short, medium and long-term. i feel like the argument being put forth -- the argument you put forth over the year and others ignores the reality on the ground what i mean by that is to echo scott's point, you're saying i need to wait for the fed to tell me they're done. all year long -- >> that's not what i said. >> i feel like that's kind of what you're saying >> i can tell you exactly what i said, you can choose to listen to what i say or paraphrase something i did not say. >> okay. that said, what i'm kind of curious about is how do you go about investing in a year or -- i mean this more generally you have to put money to work. you can't be short everything, i

assume you haven't been short everything i assume. in the context of an environment where you are worried about the federal reserve, how do you put money to work in an environment like that where investors are demanding return and the headline level of the stock market is up 17% of the day. if that question makes sense >> this shouldn't be a mystery the bear thesis is that the yields are not done rising so we'll concentrate on the short-end of the curve i don't think you are still being compensated to be at the long end of the curve just yet yields will increase there as well which means we have to issue 1.6 trillion over the next you to months just as international demand for treasuries is somewhat softening i think you're seeing an issue in the curve there's lots of areas where we have great risk/reward and where we need to be in equities. i long talked about being in sectors where we're going to see

relative performance because we'll see relative performance of earnings growth those who have secular tailwinds, margins so ai, cybersecurity, and i've been talking about these for a year now i don't think this should be a mystery at all in terms of where we believe we can make money >> since everybody is getting along with the paraphrasing, i'll do it one more time kristina, they're saying you are completely underestimating the fed, there will be more cuts, the rates will be higher longer than you think, and the fed will not cut interest rates nearly as soon as all of you think earnings will be overinflated as a result of that and thus stock prices need to correct did i get that right >> that's good that's a good paraphrase >> i knew it >> he's a better paraphraser than i >> i love you, too dan it wasn't personal >> it's all good

>> so, what i was simply doing to say is back in september, the catalyst for yields starting to go up dramatically was the release of the fomc dot plot, which implied only two rate cuts for '24 after the june dot plot implied four rate cuts for 2024. if we go back to just kind of check on the accuracy of dot plots, in december of '21, the fed's dot plot anticipated 90 basis points by the end of '22, it was 44 basis points what sent yields up in september to me should be take within a grain of salt. i would go longer duration i think the fed does not have the ability to hike rates, but

they are going to continue to bear down on hawkish fed speak because that's how they try to tamp down financial conditions >> greg, when do you get to a point -- i mean this sincerely, where you say, look, i thought things would be much worse off than in reality they are now i've got, you know, chase for performance. i've got areas of the market that have done virtually nothing, which have come alive at a time where the area that's done everything is still going okay is it next week with nvidia? if nvidia validates some of that -- what is the moment >> it's a great question and it's really hard to determine from a bearish perspective just because i don't know what the near-term catalyst is. i suspect the fed will come out and talk much more hawkishly over the next few weeks for very different reasons, because i still don't think the fed watch -- we're talking about

rate cuts. they tried to be explicit that they're not coming that's the thing the catalyst is gradual. it's like death by a thousand slow cuts in slow motion bridgewater did an excellent job of articulating this much better than i've been able to do in the last five or six months. i think the key here is that we saw credit growth follow the normal correlation with monetary tightening what we didn't see follow the normal correlation is spending from the corporate side and the housing side what they laid out -- and i tried to lay out, the reasons for that have very limited runway both corporates and households were spending now in this big government transfer essentially that we experienced. both of them had taken advantage of basically zero percent interest rates in 2020 and 2021. so the duration between the spending collapse and the credit collapse is still forthcoming and it's taken longer than we

typically would need to see that you know, i think it's coming. i can't say it will be next week until the presentation of a negative catalyst, then, yeah, this probably still has air left i remain at 3,800. >> 3,800 >> 3,800 that made people gasp. >> 3,800 for when? >> that's my 2024 estimate i think at some point we will have negative catalyst if we continue to see the heat and we don't see a trend in that housing disinflation, the fed will raise >> greenhaus was on his phone, getting ready to make dinner through an app, and you said 3,800. >> you can always throw it back at me. we're on tape. >> let me ask you this, first

dan and then kristina. the idea that cash which people have been hiding in or taking advantage of because rates are where they are, is cash already no longer the best option? is it losing its luster? >> if you're an investor at home, and we talked about this before, if you can get 5, 5.5% on a good chunk of your portfolio, you're achieving 75% of your long-term equity return. we're a hedge fund, if you're running institutional money, 5% continue cut it. that increases the hurdle rate, but, no, i don't think 5% is particularly unattractive. but i'm looking at names in the industrial space that are keyed off of the inflation reduction act and a lot of government spending coming down the pike, the electrification throughout the country. some of the restaurants that are

levered -- up to the screen right now are all the retailers who reported, ross stores, et cetera, there's plenty of money to be made presumably that will give you better than 5% annual returns over the next four years. >> how would you answer that >> i would agree completely. cash is sitting on the sidelines that is -- that represents an overweighting in many portfolios that's a powerful catalyst i think we'll start to see that move in. we're already starting to see that move into equities as well as risk assets within the fixed income space this is a time of real opportunity for those investors who are looking to history as a guide. >> i enjoyed the conversation. thank you for being here greg, you gave us a lot of quotable stuff we don't need to paraphrase anymore. appreciate it. enjoy the weekend. have a good thanksgiving, everybody. >> appreciate it. a number of retail stocks outperforming the broader market today on the back of earnings. courtney reagan has more on

that >> most retail verse beaten expectations, but giving holiday forecasts with caution that sent shares in various directions today a number of stand-outs xrt up 2.7%. shares of gap having the best day since its ipo in 1976, up about 30%. gap reported a big profit thanks to what richard dixon calls financial and operational rigger, operational sales were stronger than expected, especially old navy. that was up 1% athleta did see a drop but investors are looking past that ross stores issued cautious guidance shares up 8% on the session. macy's surprise improvement yesterday drove shares then, it's continuing today. macy's shares up 30% over the

past week. that's lifting department stores more broadly kohl's up 17%. nordstrom up 11% got some big moves here for the week and the day scott? >> courtney reagan, thank you very much. straight ahead, more on this big week for the markets as stocks try for their longest winning speak since the summer jean-yves fillion joins us next on 24 and the road ahead for rates, recession risk, m&a and everything else. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪♪ ♪♪

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major averages heading for their positive week in a row joining us now is jean-yves fillion of bnp paribas usa thank you for coming down here and sitting on the set >> thank you very much for having me. >> you know what makes a market is differing views on where we are. we just had a vigorous debate about whether it's time to be bullish or bearish you know, the bears won out for a while. how does the environment feel to you today? >> today was quite positive. inflation is coming down at a faster pace than expected. retail sales are coming down as well, probably not as fast as

one would have feared. the u.s. economy seems to continue to be very resilient in spite of the headwinds this is what the markets are recognizing. >> are you surprised by how resilient almost everything is the consumer has been resilient. the economy has been resilient the market has been resilient. >> not so much spending big part of my time with business leaders, i was last week with some of the largest tech ceos. this economy continues to have strong fundamentals. corporate balance sheets continue to be in good shape they were liquid the consumer continues to spend. the velocity of capital markets here is just unprecedented >> you are talking about some of the most well-known ceos out in silicon valley that i know you've been with lately. what sense are you getting from enterprise spending, the very

things that the market is concerned about that would be first hit in a more dramatic economic slowdown? >> there is concern about the geopolitics and political situation. we have be very clear on that. it's in everybody's mind however, i see them very involved and engaged in terms of investing, expanding internationally where the bank is well-positioned to support them, having a presence in countries in the world what they need mostly is they need a landing and at times bridging to capital markets. expecting better conditions. they're very focused on the more industrialized ones on short-term financing trade. supply chain financing i would say -- i would be remiss if i weren't saying given the uncertainty and potential expected volatility, we've had

unprecedented demand on hedging strategies across the spectrum. it starts with rates, commodities, energy and equities >> since we're talking about demand for financing, let's talk about rates. have we peaked do you think we have do you think the fed is done let's start there. >> i think central banks -- i think there's a common view between the fed and the ecb acknowledge the good trend in terms of inflation when you look at inflation, we have to make a distinction between holistic inflation, core inflation and services inflation. the latter is probably the most steady however, i don't think anybody claims victory on this battle. >> that's clear. you're getting that, including from the boston fed president who was on our network today collins. let's listen to what she told steve liesman and we can react

on the other side of that. >> three-month core is still at 3.4%, steve. that's higher than we want in order to get back down to 2% in a reasonable amount of time we need to be patient and resolute and i wouldn't take additional firming off the table. we need who look holistically at the data >> this is the message you're getting from everywhere, correct? too soon to declare victory, but we can afford to be patient. >> there is always a debate about is 2% the proper benchmark going forward. >> what do you think did you hear jim gorman this week who said, you know what maybe it's not maybe 3% is. >> then i think there's a good discussion i wish i had a crystal ball on this one however, what i have more certainty about is this is the end of cheap money this is the end of cheap labor the view for 2024, we see the fed and the ecb sticking to the

policy probably we've reached a stage where terminal rates are where they are but we don't see anything until the second half of 2024. as you know, central bankers are fact-based and driven by data. that's going to be the main driver in the next few months. >> do you think they cut because they can, because inflation has come down on trend, or do you think they cut because they have to because the economy is weak and they have no choice? >> you're highlighting the dilemma. they have to manage this fine line between fighting inflation and keeping this economy going i have to say, as it relates to this economy, it's such a resilient economy, they may have more room to maneuver than the ecb might. >> who cuts first? >> there is convergence between

these two banks in terms of vision and monetary policy if there is one difference, the fed has been using in their toolbox rate hikes as well as, you know, unwinding the balance sheet. >> quantitative tightening >> the ecb mostly used rate hikes, not yet under winding the balance sheet. this could be the differentiating factor >> we talked about the clients you're talking to and the visibility they're giving you into capital markets what kind of environment do we have for m&a looking into 2024 >> 2023 is quite good, not the magnitude of '21/'22, but we've seen larger transactions with a mix of stock and cash. what i've noticed, there's much

more scrutiny on these transactions which make the lag time probably -- definitely longer but interestingly, there is a lot of dry powder in the system. corporate balance sheet and strategics have ample liquidity. what i can see in the position i have, i see a lot of inflows from outside -- capital inflows and liquidity from outside the u.s. into this economy which means when we get to a more normal environment, this money will be ready to be put to work >> so maybe we're spring-loaded, just waiting for that moment >> to be seen. >> thanks for being here jean-yves fillion ofnpar b pi paribas. casino operators in las vegas are looking for record breaking revenues in light of the formula 1 race your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage

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we have major breaking news related to openai. this is a stunner in some respects >> yeah. sam atman lpman is out as ceo oe ai the board saying mr. altman's departure follows a deliberative review of the process of the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board. the board no longer has confidence of his ability to lead openai. this has more implications beyond just openai microsoft, of course, major investor of openai, owning a significant part of that company. i reached out to microsoft for comment. i'll get back to you if we hear anything

i can tell you as we're having this conversation, the minute this thing started to filter out, microsoft shares started to fall they're down near 2% for obvious relationship that these two companies have had, which, let's be honest, but microsoft into the driver's seat in the way that the market has taken it from step one. >> and altman was the face of this company, recently at the apec summit. he's at the forefront of this company. i was in congress back in may, he was the one who testified in front of congress talking about ai regulation. he's the guy to go to. he's been at the forefront of this ai boom we've been seeing, more than any other company, more than any other person he's now out of course, we're dying for

details on what exactly happened here up until this week, he was still the face of the company and really out there promoting this technology even just a week ago, they had a big event, he was there giving the keynote speech in a steve jobsian way. it's unclear what the future is here microsoft down 2% on this news >> i'm looking at the broader implications, too, just again of how, you know, big these stocks are. and the weightings they have in the different indices. the dow, for example, we were wondering, will we make a run at positive territory down is down 28 points it was a somewhat muted day to begin with now you have the biggest point contributor to the down side in microsoft shares which are taking about $70 or so off of the dow as it relates here it's going to be interesting to see what happens from this in the broader context, what you

think this might mean to microsoft's efforts as alphabet has made it clear, too, that they're not willing to take a backseat to anybody. they're going to spend whatever they have to and do whatever they have to do to close whatever perceived gap exists or at least the one the market already voted on exists by virtue of what microsoft shares have done, which have been hitting an all-time high almost every day this week. >> it's not just that. google has not just fallen behind but it had to delay it's product reportedly, this gemini product that was supposed to compete with the latest and greatest chatgpt product that's been delayed. this is great news for google. i don't know if we have alphabet shares up here to see how they're reacting at the same time you have to look at what's been going on at openai they literally crashed because they had so many people signing up for their latest products that they just announced this month.

there is momentum there. they have so many users. it doesn't seem like they still are the top of the game and still perceived as the leader. but so much of that, again, was tied to sam altman as the figure head and face of the company now he's out alphabet down about 1% here. >> incredible. the valuation of that company has just exploded over the last year they went from a -- whatever they went from i can't remember how low the valuation was a year ago to near $90 million now. that tells you what the excitement is around this company. >> actual revenue. they're selling stuff and bringing in sales unlike so many early start-ups which are pre-revenue or no revenue. there's money coming into this company. sam altman gave an interview with the financial times a few days ago saying he's willing to go back to microsoft for more

funding. this is still an active company. without sam altman, it's unclear if they have that leadership mojo that they would need to continue up this momentum and this leadership position they have, not just for themselves but for microsoft. >> this is how everything works. we're sitting here talking about this stunner of a story, what it means for microsoft, and alphabet, of course i said i couldn't remember what the valuation was back then. what did i do? i googled it it comes up. 29 billion in april to near 90 billion around now it's a real sign at how meteoric this company's emergence has been >> yeah. it's not just these fake valuations that we hear from so many startups. there's one called character ai has makes no revenue it's not as advanced as what we've been seeing. it has a $5 billion valuation. this is good news for anthropic,

which doesn't get as much attention as openai and chatgpt, it's product, clawed, it's version of chatgpt is capable and advanced and right up there neck and neck with what chatgpt is able to do. there was that amazon investment into anthropic to boost that as well this made the horse race, so to speak, between these ai companies just really tighten up again without this leader. >> all right i appreciate you bringing us this news and rolling with this on the fly let us know if you have anything else over the next 15 minutes or in overtime as we turn the clock. steve kovac, thank you very much we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close.

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preps for the formula 1 grand prix one of the biggest winners is the casinos. big shock. melissa brewer with more you combine f1 with a ton of people, and, gee, the casinos will do well >> there are lofty expectations

for f1's fourth quarter. caesars said they are on a 5% profit lift in q4. wynn expects record hotel revenue for these three days overall vegas put a $1.3 billion economic impact number on this weekend. but there's a lot of skeptics. room rates have plummeted. the hotel room i booked earlier this year for this weekend was $1,200 a night, now it's $200. ticket for f1 hit the skids. stub hub said they declined by 15%. more than half of them have been sold in just the last week in the last hour, i've spoken to two different high-level casino executives who don't want to go on the record with their names, but they told me complaining that this is the worst weekend that they have seen since covid. one of them actually used a very

stark expletive to describe it because thousands of rooms either are empty or they're just booking for chump change why are we seeing the discrepancy between what the bellagio rooms are going for more than $2,000 a night and what these other executives are complaining about? one of them said f1 is a rich man's sport and publicity over these million packages, which we have brought you, sky high ticket prices, headlines, that scared away the demographic that would normally fill tens of thousands of modestly priced rooms. >> all right contessa, priaapecte it very much contessa brewer in vegas ahead of the grand prix. we have the market zone coming up. when someone tells you who they are, believe them.

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♪ we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. and deirdre bosa with the bombshell leadership shakeup at openai mike, we'll find out real quick whether this was a telling week for the market the broadening out s&p equal weight which you talked about for more than a year now and the real place to look for the underlying strength in the market and thereof. >> massively outperformed last year, massively underperformed this year. and around the flat line year to date in terms of the s&p, it's interesting how it's dealt with the dig one-day pop off the cpi.

the closes, 4502, 4508, 4512 holding the gains, going sideways and allowing the mass of stocks to catch up to the few leaders. that's probably bullish if that's how it goes to me, the big question is, is it over its skis yet technically getting overbought, but not terribly, not compared to july. is it ignoring some kind of bad economic news? it doesn't seem like it. >> doesn't feel like it. >> all of it working together is relatively reassuring, i would say. and anything could come along. for now, it seems like a win for the week >> you know, treasuries are doing nothing to upset the narrative either ten-year is at 4.43. pushing 4.44 as we speak >> that's where you want it. you want it under 4.5. it allows the market breathing room credit has been fine

understandably people feel as if maybe they missed the initial burst off this move. we'll see how that reacts. into year-end, people putting faith into the holiday seasonals as well. deirdre bosa, what are we learning here about sam altman out at openai? we're talking about literally the face of all that we've talked about over the last year. >> the face. >> and why the market has done what it has done >> the face of generative ai and openai as the darling, especially after billions of dollars from microsoft my phone is blowing up right now. i'm pinging everybody i know in the tech and san francisco community. there is a certain amount of shock. as you said, he was the face of generative ai. he had this gigantic valuation on the back of investment from microsoft. on track for a reported $1.3 billion in revenue this year you talked about valuation we did this deep dive on our tech check weekly that showed if

you looked at openai's valuation on a valuation to sales metric, it had a multiple many times that of even nvidia. scott, i will also say i've heard from a few people in the investment community that this isn't surprising over the last few months you did hear, wasn't the popular opinion, some doubts about sam altman and what he was selling i will say that at the early stages i'm still getting information coming in and i'll update you. when you look at the structure of this company, it's a strange structure. it's a non-profit. that's why microsoft was only able to invest 49% stake into the company. the fiduciary duty was not to shoulders, it was a non-profit in its charter it said the primary duty was to humanity it was already an unusual structure. a lot of this will come out.

a lot of questions are being asked. certainly shockwaves through the community. >> no doubt about that some saying it's not surprising, but it is universally jarring. thank you. deirdre bosa, thank you. mike, you put this into context, this person we're talking about, the company that he founded and what it has meant to the market by way of microsoft, the valuation of that company, 23 billion to $90 billion. it underscores everything that we've spoken about from the beginning of this year >> without a doubt microsoft's piece of it, is it 10% stake? something like that, it's really trivia relative to the size of microsoft, over $2.5 trillion in terms of how we got to 2.5 trillion, it's because they have the advantage of openai. maybe we can, you know, take one moment to enjoy the irony of a human being whose leadership is now lost from a company that's

supposed to be artificial intelligence, the software itself will do the job we already have the technology it will iterate itself there's a sense out there that maybe there's sort of a key person risk even in these businesses it's interesting that you take a little off the top from microsoft stock. stock was at 360 a week ago. >> oh, it's at a new all-time high every day >> it shows you the sensitivity and the fact of why people own it at this level >> the next logical step, we know why people own nvidia at this level, that's for the exact reasons we're talking about this in context of microsoft. the promises of ai and the ability of these companies uniquely so to monetize it in a way that others cannot yet >> i think the advantage nvidia has enjoyed is people are not sure what the pay offis going to be but they feel like they need the investment up front. we'll see what the trajectory is and what they say about 2024 when they report on tuesday.

it's touch a moon shot stock the earnings estimates have had this heroic blast to the upside. stakes are high. the moral of this stoerlry this week story this week is the other areas of the market that have done well. into "oc." there's your score card on wall street. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm jon fortt. massive shakeup. openai says sam altman is out immediately after the board says they no longer have confidence in his ability to lead microsoft taking a dip after that