they do seem to be on the right track. anything with a.i. is a bonus. for amd there's real expectations out there, the street is looking for at least 3 billion, probably, for a.i. next year >> we got to leave it there. ben reitzes. that's going to do it for "overtime. see you again tonight, 8:00 p.m., for a special report "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight the a.i. race may have crowned its official winner. shares of microsoft surging to a new record today, even as questions swirl over the future of openai. so, has it claimed the top spot against chief rival alphabet plus, heart burn a couple of big pharma stocks plummet. we'll get a pulse check on the industry and find out where it goes from here. and later, bitcoin prices have already more than doubled this year, and are trading at around 18-month highs, but one

expert thinks the rally is only just getting started we've got a very special guest on the desk to lay out his case, tanned, rested, ready for a comeback, that's a hint. the big reveal just minutes away i'm melissa lee, coming to you from studio b at the nasdaq. and we start off with the stock that might have just established itself as the undisputed king of the a.i. rell. microsoft closing at a record high it added $56 billion in market cap today. and is now less than 7% away from breaking the $3 trillion mark the latest move coming after microsoft hired former openai ceo sam altman to lead its new a.i. team. hundreds of openai employees are threatening to follow him if the board that fired altman on friday does not resign but at least one company isn't willing to give up the battle so easy salesforce's ceo offering to match salary and stock

compensation for any openai researcher that joins his company instead. what does this mean for the battle for a.i. dominance? there's so many angles to go through. guy, what is your take here? >> the market's saying microsoft is the winner right mow. and listen, again, tim has said it, we've all said it over the years, microsoft is one of the five to seven most important companies in the world i mean, seemingly everything they do touches our daily lives, consistently throughout the day. the question is, though what's the right valuation for this company? making $13 next year means it trades close to 30 times forward eps. that's not cheap in this environment. now, maybe they deserve of that and maybe this now, i guess, pole position they have in a.i. sort of gives them that sort of leeway to have that type of valuation. i think it's getting rich here >> karen >> yeah, i agree with this does seem to be kind of a big deal i can't even understand what happened at a.i. i can't understand the structure.

in't un can't understand the bo made of four people. i don't know how you vote on anything with an even number so, i mean, what a coup to get him. i think that we might not have seen the end of the a.i. story, though every hour that goes by that we don't see it resolved with him back there means more likely to stay at microsoft, so, i don't -- the moment, that's the place you have to be and i think they will be able to hire whatever talent they want. >> yeah, though with salesforce, that shows the up for grabs in terms of talent. this is a talent sort of area, and you are only as good as your talent, all those engineers, the developers, et cetera, they're out there ready to be hired. >> i think the stakes went higher today i think that's what you're asking us. if you look at the development, what the impact on microsoft stock, who looks like they've come out of this thorny situation in the cat bird seat, though again, there's probably a lot to the story that we still need to hear and what kind of controls might, in fact, be over key management, but i look at

microsoft, which has added almost a trillion dollars of market cap since this deal was announced. if you look at where the street is, where they are projecting revenue growth first of all, 15%, 16% is roughly where the street has microsoft growing over the next three years. decent, solid numbers, especially for a company going to generate $300 billion in revenue. but what's the multiple you're going to pay based upon the reaction, though, based upon the feeding green si a fr frenzy -- and this is a quote that was in "the journal," they quoted someone from steeple, microsoft hasn't been ahead of the trend in 20 years, in two decades, or -- some could be critical that's debatable, but the point is, they are afhead they're very ahead >> and i'll just say this, at some point next year, microsoft's going to overtake apple in market cap terms and never look back. microsoft will be the new apple

from here on out i don't mean that it's going to straight to $4 trillion. at some point, i think all these stocks are likely to take a bit of a breather and again, digesting all this sort of stuff. clearly, a beneficiary, if they are able to get dozens and dozens of the most important, you know, people from openai that being said, this relationship that they had with openai is really important, for all of those projections they gave, i think they're cfo said a few months ago, this is going to be the quickest business they ever have to $10 billion in revenue. if openai implodes, they're going to lose a really important cloud customer they're going to lose a lot of the sort of activity that was existing on their cloud platform that help them achieve better than expected growth in this last quarter they just announced 29% versus 26%, you know, projected. so, again, i don't think it's a lay-up from here on out that it's all coming up roses for microsoft, but i do believe in the intermediate to longer term, this does, to tim, what he just said -- all that being said, i

mean, what happens with anthropic -- excuse me, apple and amazon, or google and amazon, they are tripping over each other does alphabet make a bit for openai people? does amazon? if you thought openai was expensive, tradingal 80 times sales, anthropic is a bit more expensive and the like here. this is kind of the first inning of what's going on here, but it feels like openai is toast they have gpt-4 and microsoft is six to nine months away from something that is as good as that >> doesn't that -- doesn't this tell you just how big all this is and we have nvidia tomorrow, and, you know, they seem to be the one that's serving the computing needs of this world, and it was hard to believe you could have felt that there was more still to price into a.i. until this open opera over the last 48 hours. it's fascinating >> the sands can quickly change.

thursday, we thought openai was, like, the golden goose and microsoft basically owns the biggest assets for that but how about anthropic or cohere? what if google, what if alphabet decides, we can hire the top people there, all of this can change, just, you know -- >> well, they did put in a significant -- >> right >> significant -- >> in terms of bringing, onboarding talent. >> yeah, it seems like a really, you know, very sort of sped up -- but i still come out with, the openai destruction, that's so -- i can't even understand how that could happen so quickly, and with so little governance, but -- so, what's left there i don't know and what happens to all the, i don't know, the vc money that went into that is it just -- it's gone, i guess, if the valuation doesn't hang in, but -- i don't understand the structure >> i agree, i'm sorry, and i just -- is it as easy as saying, we hire away the key people -- i

think there's a lot of restrictions upon how quickly -- control and significant people at companies can be hired away, and noncompeting and things like that, so, i think we have to take a deep breath and say, i don't think you can just hired the top three people at the biggest a.i. firms in the world and suddenly have their business i think they know that and obviously, the comments are ones that really do underscore the bid for talent there's no question about that but there are superstars and then there are the folks that are really defining and legally protected from being stolen. >> let's bring in steve kovach who has been following all the twists and turns since this story started to unfold on friday steve, what's next here? >> anyone's guess. anything can happen -- even sam altman joining microsoft, that's still in question, if that's going to happen. let me give you the lay of the land and the latest of what's going on here. like you said earlier, hundreds of openai employees are threatening to leave for microsoft if the board doesn't give into certain demands, that

includes reinstating sam altman. reminder, he might not even be a microsoft employee just yet, we don't know the verge is reporting this afternoon, altman is trying to go over to openai, even after microsoft's ceo satya nadella announced this morning altman will be ceo of a new a.i. subsidiary at microsoft. so, here's where things stand as of right now openai is currently running under its third ceo in four days already some calls for that ceo to go away and the very real possibility the original ceo, altman, comes back to keep employees from following him to microsoft and collapsing openai. this potential exodus of employees putting openai's lead in a.i. at risk and gives microsoft and chance to develop that technology in house without relying on a volatile startup. microsoft closes the deal, and brings altman in-house, along with hundreds of openai employees. and microsoft can end up acquiring the hottest tech

startup on the planet, reportedly valued at a $90 billion, for a song, and without any scrutiny from regulators or, the board caves to the employee demands and altman comes back then they resign and new board members come in to run the shop. if that happens, well, we're going to be on a time machine back to where things stood thursday mel? >> wow >> yeah. >> steve, thank you. for laying all that out for us our next guest says the latest dramas that leveled the playing field and the future of a.i. is more open than ever before let's get more from brett w winton brett, was it your view prior to the events that unfolded late last week that openai was out in front and now leveling the playing field is essentially, you know, the talent can be redistributed and so other companies can get stronger >> not only redistributed, if you pause development for six months in a.i., given the cost decline, that's like pausing for two years in traditional more

slot-driven technology so, the shakeup at openai, even if they restructure the staff into microsoft, it necessarily blunts the volume losty that organization was achieving, and so, it gives the likes of anthropic an opportunity to catch up to some degree, it provides an opening for xai to catch up to gpt-4. maybe google gets its act together and begins to ship on the basis of this upheaval there's a new game board every company that was previously designing to openai's a apis what to re-evaluate the stability of that technology stack. and meta and its open force models are maybe the biggest winner here, where kind of like the underlying compute in infrastructure has to be very stable, and open source, well vetted, open models actually could become a more dominant force than they otherwise would have been if we hadn't gone

through this weekend >> as things stand at this moment, brett, with the caveat that things can change at a moment's notice, is microsoft in the lead >> i don't think we -- i think from the enterprise customer perspective, yes enterprisists love microsoft from a startup perspective, this really depreciates the value of the openai relationship, because startups are not, you know, it's ironic, the openai board meeting happened on a google meets call, rather than on microsoft office 365. and, you know, when we talk to startups, we talk to them on zoom and i think startups are looking at anthropic and everyone else, and then the chatgpt asset, the consumer-facing asset, is really the thing that is in question here i think if openai's development gets arrested, it's -- that asset is not necessarily going to be able to be rebuilt by

microsoft in a robust way, and there's all kinds of companies that could go after that, x-ai under elon musk. >> brett, lost in all this seems to be the circumstances surrounding a pretty abrupt firing of sam altman i don't want to speck lament as to the reasons why, but does that matter at this point, or is it sort of out there in the ether and they'll move on from that >> i think there's still reporting to be done as to what exactly occurred a very simple analysis is the non-profit structure eviscerated the company. if you have a board of directors, none of whom have equity exposure, then -- and they have a duty that's not to shareholders, they can make this kind of move legally, because the org kind of goes askew of the mission of the nonprofit both this and ftx show how

important, you know, governance structures are in organizations, and certainly it is investors and particularly on the interest side, we spend a lot of time thinking how our founders are empowered and how much power they have to make the right choice choices, without getting shoved out with misalignment. >> hyp >> hey, brett, if sam altman and the team goes to microsoft or is cob firmed they're there and openai just really kinds of implodes, do you think this sets off kind of a wave of m&a in the space? there's a lot of well-founded, you know, startups, big numbers by the tech platform companies might they look at this and say, hey, look, microsoft has an opportunity to leapfrog us >> i'll be curious to see if sam altman can deliver the velocity that he was delivering inside openai inside of microsoft i mean, the history of platform transitions in technology, and

this is definitely a platform transition, is not one where incumbents win when we went from the keyboard to the mouse, that's what passed the baton from ibm to microsoft. and from the mouse to multitouch, what's what passed the baton from microsoft to apple. and we have entered a new stage of user interface and development. and i think it's more likely that the raft of companies that is worth a trillion plus dollars is not selected from a bunch of incumbent providers who acquire their way in the it's going to be startups like anthropic with a startup e kro system building on top of it that become much more valuable, because they are able to move more anymonimbly to adopt the ts that make this technology better >> brett, good to speak with you, thank you >> thank you >> and this just in, in case you missed it on the side of your screen satya nadella will join jon fortt later in this show on "fast money," so, you'll want to catch that interview, obviously,

there are a lot of questions to be answered by nadella, and this will be his first broadcast interview since all of what has gone on, so, that will be interesting for sure >> extraordinary >> what would you ask? >> well, part of it is really understanding, you know, where these key employees, you know, the leader of the firm is going to sit and truly, what kind of control will they have what ability will they have to control their fate and not be in the same position out of place like microsoft really understanding the dynamics of the legality of this transfer and how they can now be sitting inside of microsoft. >> yeah. and is sam altman actually there? >> well, i don't see an 8k they have time they -- they did it today, they can do it tomorrow, that would be okay. but we -- nothing's signed well, i guess we could know tomorrow instead of today, but -- >> does he understand the circumstances of sam altman's ousting. >> does sam altman understand

it >> no, does satya. >> pthere's a lot of terms of answering as to make sure you know the reason why. you want to make sure your house is clean >> that's the question have done your due diligence there's been a lot of speculation out there. do you feel secure enough with your due diligence to have everything the market's talking about come to fruition >> exactly. all right, coming up, pharma falling flat shares of bayer having one of its worst days ever. and it wasn't the only pharma stock feeling the pain more on the moves causing investors big headaches next. plus, how a new president in south america is shaking up the lithium space and e thnames to keep an eye on don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

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irregular heartbeats bayer was under particular pressure just because of its own pipeline and drugs losing exclu exclusivity. >> this has been in a downtrend for the last decade or so. so, yeah, today it has a huge move on probably times normal volume, but this has been a continuation of a bad story. and in pharma, i don't want to say tim and karen's pfizer, because that's just not nice -- >> it's okay, it's all right >> careful >> there are winners and they're losers, and this happens to be one of the losers. >> they pulled a lymphoma drug which got granted fda fast track approval in 2017, but subsequent trials found that it was not effective, so it's sort of like a series of blemishes here, at least for bayer. >> and, again, you talk about pipeline, you talk about mine, maybe karen's pfizer --

>> yes >> is -- the analyst community, investor community are unable to get excited. maybe you have put a floor under the covid dynamics, but bayer, this was a key pipeline drug -- just like the he tech sector. you in you also get some sense of why you've seen such major underperformance by the euro stocks 50 to the s&p. >> this was supposed to be a $5.5 billion drug, this one drug, at peak sale, which would have been massive. >> yeah, i mean, it's sort of the charlie brown of -- right? but it's interesting to me, the pharma space, u.s. pharma space, talking about tim and my pfizer, it's so out of favor right now, except for -- there are just two names you need to be in, eli lilly, novo nordisk. i have to think that will

change the valuations at some point just get so overdone dan is shaking his head, nope, it will never change, i think it will -- >> you thinking of elon or something? >> i actually agree with you these guys are testing the orals, and i think that works its way into the very cheap stocks i would look at a pfizer and say, why wouldn't you take a shot you have downside to the mid 20s. you could have upside in a different environment, you know, to 40 bucks or something like that, in the next year or so >> it's also dan's pfizer now. >> there you go. kicking the tires. how is that? >> come on aboard. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next heavy metal trading. well, actually, it's the lightest metal, but it's sure rocking. why argentina's presidential election is swaying lithium stocks, and what it means for the producers next. plus, stocks have been on a

tear but could the fed throw a wrench into the run we've seen recently a top economist lays out his take for the new year ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right aft ts.erhi power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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[inaudible chatter] [card reader chimes] (♪♪) (♪♪) welcome back to "fast money. lithium producers popping today with the stock's most exposed to argentina, seeing strong gains moves coming after this weekend's runoff election in that country, where libertarian candidate won the presidency his economic plan includes abolishing the country's central bank and dollarizing the economy is expected to introduce policy to boost commodity exports argentina's one of the world's

biggest lithium producers. so, what could this new leadership mean for the industry also, a lot of other industries, i mean, this goes also for its oil industry -- >> yeah, ypf >> he wants to sell 51% of the state's oil company. >> privatization has been a time to get on board. and there have been places where it's particularly exciting when there's inflationary dynamics, no rule of law, you know, and when russia basically gave their entire resource sector in loans for shares, but in the case of ypf, shares are up 43% it's actually a really exciting story. there is an opportunity also, there's some question about, this was partially even privatized and there's lawsuits out there already, with some very sophisticated western investors, but all of it brings home the dynamic of where there are assets that are for sale, and argentina is a wealthy country. there's incredible diversity,

and there's an enormous amount of poverty based upon how they've run this country but natural resource-wise, in terms of assets, this is, you know, one of the more valuable countries in latin america >> we are showing you a couple full screens the number two producer in argentina of lithium, it is merging, we showed you a separate chart that deal is still going to happen they have the most exposure in terms of listed companies that u.s. investors probably have most access to guy? >> i thought l.a.c., again, if you told me all this over the weekend, where's l.a.c., going to be up 50 cents, 10% -- didn't happen but it's going to be interesting to see what the analyst community does on the back of this back in october, deutsche bank downgraded l.a.c they cut their price target from $25 to $7. does this change the equation? tim's talked abo valuation, the

this tail rie call it, but the tail risk here is to the upside coming up, fast movers catching our eye shares of penn and macy's jumping in today's session the reason behind these moves. but first, top economist david rosenberg joins us to lay out how the fed could impact the market's big run where he sees stocks heading, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain.

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a reminder, stay tuned to "fast money" for a first on cnbc interview with satya nadella he'll be joining jon fortt in 15 minutes time so, stay tuned for that. meantime, our next guest says the market is heading for a resolution in the new year, but night to be the kind that investors are hoping for david rosenberg joins us now david, always good to see you. >> thank you for having me on. >> so, you say that for economists celebrating a soft landing, don't celebrate too soon, because you say they don't necessarily end well >> well, because, you know, the

debate -- it's a bit of a false debate about the soft landing, because soft landings do exist, they're part of the business cycle, but what they are is, they're the bridge, or the transition phase, from expansion to the contraction, so, the debate is, are we going to have a soft landing, but the answer is that we've been in a soft landing all year long. the question becomes, what happens next and traditionally, the soft landing is the appetizer for the inevitable recession so, that's really what the story is i think that the theme for 2024 will be that this recession that was delayed is going to be proven next year that it was never derailed >> so, even though inflation has abated, you think that we are still -- the soft landing will still be followed by a recession? what can get us off that path, if anything, or is it a foregone conclusion in your mind that this is where the cycle is going? >> i think that it's as much a

foregone conclusion as anything can be i don't deal in zeros or 100s, we're always playing the probabilities, but inflation typically comes down -- i mean, you can have a situation where supply factors help, but principally, they come down, also because of a weakness in demand and so, keep that in the back of your mind, as you're looking at, inflation has been coming down so dramatically, 9% to 3%, but at the same time, what it's telling you that corporate pricing power we had, that's come to an end, so, the inflation numbers are double-edged swords. interest rates out of it, that's true, that's ben initial, but i think what's going to be at stake is, you know, the 10% consensus earnings growth estimate for next year, so, i think we have to sitdown and d the math how do we get disinflation, and at the same time, get 10% profit growth, unless we have dramatic

cost cutting you're not going to be getting 10% profits next year from the revenue side, if inflation continues to go down, so, you know, when you talk about thedy verve jens as a resolution, that has to be resolved in 2024, one of them will be the double digit earnings growth that's imbedded in the stock market. and everybody is praying for lower inflation. well, it brings you lower interest rates, that's true, but it's going to be commence rate with earnings that are going to be disappointing >> david, thank you for being with us. you said tomorrow crowns the end of the quarter, and the magnificent seven have reported, they carried the market, but then we'll have the focus on the consumer and black friday. talk about where you see the consumer, and, you know, is it time to stop now feeling like they're crumbling? >> well, look, the consumer has been breathing fumes for the last 12 to 18 months and we know the story with excess savings,

we know they've been fully exhausted or close to being fully exhausted. the amount of fiscal stimulus this year was, you know, a major source of support for the economy at large that's not going to be repeated next year, so, look, it's really the same old story i think it's because, you know, today's investor or, you know, today's market pundit, we were all basisly just living day by day. nobody's willing to see past the tip of their nose. there are built-in lags, from what the fed does in both directions we get ref coverries because of the lags of much lower rates, and then we get the recession because of the lacks of much higher rates and those lags haven't fully kicked in yet. so, i think that we are going to be having a consumer recession, we're starting to see, by the way, cracks emerge in the labor market, and that's going to play a role, especially as unemployment rises, that's going to cult into wage growth

ed a and at the same time, we know the mantra, the household sector has such great balance sheets, because everybody points to the debt to income ratio, how much lower it is today compared to '06 and '07 that will knock yourself out, if that's the benchmark you want to use, the most acute credit bubble in modern times when you go back historically, household balance sheets, just debt to income ratios, are harder than they were than any other cyclical peak outside of '06 and '07. and you are starting to see that, in terms of delinquency rates going up, right? like, delinquency rates in the latest new york fed record going up, auto loans, credit cards, but now even residential mortgages from starting to hook higher the highest they've been since 2020 so, you are starting to see, interestingly enough, even with the unemployment below 4%, you're starting to see erosion in credit quality.

and so, what that means is that the banks are going to continue to tighten up their credit scoring at a time when you're going to be seeing lotovers into higher rates, the reset of the economy and going into higher rates. think about how far the fed has to go to cut interest rates. for the fed -- the fed could cult interest rates 300 basis points and it will just take us to the average for the past five, ten years. i think that's what we're going to be talking about next year when it comes to reviving the consumer we're going to go back to talking about the famous refrain called pushing on a string >> david, thank you very much. appreciate it. david rosenberg. >> thank you >> karen, do you think recession is a foregone conclusion or as much as one can be >> i don't, really, necessarily. no i do think -- i mean, i don't want to, you know, fight the vs, but i think a soft landing is possible, and i do think that productivity enhancements are probable, so, that could get you there.

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welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin getting a bid in today's session. the move coinciding with the election of a pro-bitcoin candidate in argentina reportedly seeking a settlement of more than $4 billion with the crypto exchange. bitcoin prices now more than double where they began the year and our next guest says we are just in the early innings of a new crypto bull market let's welcome a very special guest -- welcome back our friend brian kelly. >> yes >> it's great to be here great to be back >> what's new? >> what's new? yeah, i mean -- >> the audience -- but you've been operating your bitcoin fund still. >> yeah, yeah, still involved in bitcoin every day, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, never stops. but it's been an interesting year, you know, in the last

year, we had gone from everything to ftx to now argentina potentially -- they elected a pro-bitcoin president. >> and not to mention the potential bitcoin etf filings that are still in the wings here so, where do you see -- you don't have a price target necessarily on bitcoin >> yeah. >> but what are you thinking in terms of where you are now >> there's a couple of things. we know that bitcoin actual catalyst, but f those sentiments couple that with the fact, we have a federal reserve that is likely done for some time being of raising rates, if not -- we don't think they're going to go to 10%, maybe they go to 5.5%. and the second part of that is, we have the etf filings. for the first time ever, just like the gold etf, you're going to have retail investors, not that they couldn't buy it before, but your morgan stanley wealth manager can allocate to

this t that's what the got the market excited. >> you just named the catalysts for the bitcoin to keep going higher what do you think the core is -- is it just digital gold, you know, versus, like -- we hear folks come on, they say they should be allocated to that, the dollar come in, bitcoin has been trading pretty well to that. what's the core thesis right now, if you missed out this run over the last year, and sentiment was really bad a year ago at this time and now it's up 200% or something. why should people be allocating their investable capital to bitcoin right now? >> so, i think the ease yers viest way to think about it is digital gold if you have a portfolio and you have some of it that you want allocated to gold, and let's call that for inflation reasons, you're worried about the dollar or whatever your currentcy is yo want to have a hedge against that so, you could do gold, or you could do bitcoin and i would argue that bitcoin is a better use case than gold, because i can't use gold on the internet i can use bitcoin on the internet so, simply look at it, bitcoin

is a $700 billion market cap right now. all the gold that's ever mined is around $7, $8 trillion. bitcoin can take some market from gold, and the multiple return from there, why shouldn't it be 5x, 10x from here? if i starts to make market share, just like any other business would out there, that's what starts driving up the market cap >> if inflation reaxel rates, does that throw a monkey wrench into the bitcoin story >> i don't think so. it depends on how -- if inflation expectations reaccelerate, so, what we saw, everybody, hey, b.k., bitcoin wasn't a great hedge against inflation. as soon as the fed said, hey, we're on it, we're going to raise interest rates, i don't need the hedge anymore so, if you start to see inflation picking up is and then i would expect bitcoin to pick up as your hedge, just like i would expect gold, and we have this period of time where the fed is behind the curve, that's

your bull market >> so, i'm playing devil's advocate, because i am long bitcoin. that's what i do so, the use case part of bitcoin. never really came to be. and -- do you dismiss that, that it won't ever come to be -- >> no. >> people don't use it to pay for -- the idea that, you know, people -- that, you know, it would be on company's balance sheets and people would use it to pay for all kinds of things >> that's because people want to spend their filthy fiat and keep their good money the truth is, it hasn't happened because it hasn't had the adoption yet i think argentina's kind of really interesting earlier, we saw el salvador switch to a bitcoin standard if argentina picks that up, they could be that bellwether for the global south, and that really could pick it up that's what we need. and it would be great if we could have that. the rally's been going just on an investment thesis, but if we used it in countries like

argentina, that would really help >> is there proof that the reason why people are not more allocated to bitcoin is because there's no bitcoin etf, when there are futures, there are, you know, etns, i should say, etps, built on futures, other products, basically. how do we know there's going to be incremental money going into a bitcoin etf? >> yeah, so, it's a great question most of the products that are out there now are difficult for a registered investment adviser to buy, or aren't approved by compliance an etf is a more traditional product. that will help >> okay, b.k., wonderful to see you. >> great to be here. >> hope you'll come back now. all right, we have breaking news here. jon fortt is sitting down with microsoft ceo satya nadella. jon, over to you >> melissa, thank you. satya nadella, thank you for joining us live here first on cnbc

it's been quite a few days since i was with you in seattle. with openai's leadership in turmoil, so, first, i got to ask, is sam baaltman going to ba microsoft employee >> yeah, i mean, we are -- on friday morning, jon, i got up and i was very committed to our, you know, customers, and our technology road map, and really partnered with openai, and really partnered with sam. and here, as we speak, on monday, i guess it is today, it's exactly the same place i am, which is, i feel that we have all the technology and capability to keep innovating on the products you saw at our ignite conference last week, up and down the stack from silicon to co-pilot, and committed to openai and sam and that's, you know, irrespective of what configuration. obviously, we want sam and greg to have a fantastic home, if

they are not going to be in openai and all the colleagues at microsoft, but you know, i am exactly where i was on friday morning. >> well, you're about the only one, so, let me maybe ask it this way -- how clear is it to you whether sam is going back to openai and whether the 700 employees there who seem to be loyal to him are staying at openai or coming to microsoft? >> look, i mean, that is for, you know, openai board and management and the employees to choose i think, at this point, for me, i just want, jon, in this moment right, what is it that i care about? i care about just making sure that we can continue to innovate and as i said, i feel very, very confident, quite frankly, microsoft has all the capability to just do that on our own but we chose to partner with openai and we want to continue to do so, and obviously, that depends on the people of openai

and staying there, or coming to microsoft, so, i'm open to both options. but one thing i will not do is stop innovating, and so, therefore, that's kind of what i feel optimized on, into making sure that we keep going forward on the road map we talked about and there was so much excitement around >> okay. customers seem to want confidence, i'm sure microsoft employees do, too. what needs to happen for openai to be stable enough for you and microsoft's customers to trust it can members of the current board stay does microsoft need a seat on the board? >> yeah, i mean, i think at this point, i think it's very, very clear that somethings that to change around the governance, and if that's sort of -- we'll have a good dialogue with their board on that, and we'll, you know, walk through that as time evolves, but the most important thing for me, for customers to know is, today we have all the capability, and this is where i know we love to talk about, you know, here's a way, the thought

experiment sam altman once chose microsoft, and he chose microsoft again while do you think that is it is because of the capability of our company to be able to innovate with openai and so, that should speak volumes why customers can have confidence that come what may, microsoft will be there, will continue to have the products, and lead in a.i. that's, i think, the core message for our customers. >> okay. one of the things we know is coming is competition. next week, aws is going to have reinvent, i suspect they're going to say, hey, look, we're stable, you can trust us to have all of our employees who are working on a.i. still here you've already got the ceo of sa salesforce trying to hire away openai employees in this turmoil, so, how long do you have to get this kind of stabilization that at least your competitors seem to think has you in a vulnerable position

>> you know, i think there are these charts that float around and if you think about the a.i. papers, a.i. innovations, a.i. researchers, a.i. people, i think people should just go refresh their memories on what that capability chart looks like if you are not number one or number two, i would be surprised, and that should speak volumes. and look, we welcome competition, and these are all credible competitors, but you know, we -- it's not like we just learned about a.i. because of openai. we had a lot of openai capability before, with openai, and after. even on ignite think about this with openai, we have the leading llm, or the large model, and we have the leading small model with five, which we are now at 2.0. it just speaks to, i think, the breadth, and by the way, we have all the open source models on az su azure, as well we have the best tooling, the best data architecture around

a.i., and then the best products with co-pilot, so -- i don't feel that, you know -- if anything, we're much more resolute in our sort of road map and pushing forward on the innovation, and i feel like, hey, look, there's a lot of talk, there are very few people with real products, with -- at-scale, innovating on behalf of our customers >> you mentioned governance before, it seems to me that it's likely that you come out of this situation as microsoft with more leverage in the openai relationship, one way or another, than you had friday morning, okay? because your relationship with sam altman remains close and it seems like sam is either going back there with more control or coming to microsoft, and that gives you an amount of leverage. am i reading that wrong? >> yeah, look, jon, i don't think of this as leverage. the reality, i think, is, the world is recognizing how deeply

partnered we were with openai and sam, and all of the dependency openai has on microsoft to do world class work around it. we do the infrastructure, we build tools around it, we build products around it so, i feel like, hey, we've had a fantastic partnership on friday, and we have a fantastic partnership today, and if things change in the openai side in terms of who is there or who is not there, as i said, we'll have a fantastic home for the same work and mission at microsoft. >> well, i'm not sure what this initial rift between sam and the board was about, maybe you know better than i do, feel free to tell us and the viewers, if you want to expound on that, but either way, it seems like there is a segment of people who were concerned about the development of a.i. being driven by profit and that's the reason why openai and its board were structured the way they were to begin with. if the fwgovernance changes, an

microsoft continues to have this relationship, what assurance can you give people who are concerned about this, that the development of a.i. won't purely be driven by profit? >> yeah, i think about this -- this is an interesting question, jon. i've always sort of subscribed to, you know, that -- the idea that the social contract of corporation is to drive profitable solutions to the challenges of people an planet, and so, when i think -- the license to operate for microsoft, yes, of course, we have to generate profit, but at the end of the day, we have to create solutions that are useful and are real solutions to challenges of people and planet. this is not about profit for profit's sake, but it's about driving profit by doing work that the society needs that's how i think we have a license to operate in every community and country that we operate in, and so, that's what we will continue to pursue, and then, of course, the openai, it's a different structure with the nonprofit, and we respect that, the other thing that they

really care about is safety, that was very clear, even the day when sam and i got together originally with the openai partnership. we care about it and we talk about trust and technology we want to make sure that we are dealing with not only the benefits of technology, but the unintended consequences of the technology from day one as opposed to waiting for things to happen, and so, that's something -- a.i. safety research for the long-term and even here and now guardrails, whether it's on buyers or disinformation, or what have you, is something that we are putting a lot of energy into and continue to do so. >> i know you are taken a lot of teams calls today, so, satya, appreciate you taking the time to make this your first media appearance here with me on cnbc. satya nadella, ceo of microsoft. >> thank you so much, jon. >> melissa back to you. >> jon, thank you. jon fortt, an extraordinary interview with satya nadella and don't miss jon's special report tonight, 8:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. you'll hear a lot more from

satya nadella and his thoughts about a.i., as well as the last interview we just listened to. what you heard from satya nadella, are you convinced that market cap sticks? >> not necessarily, no we can do it without him, we've been doing great before, we can do without him, we'd love to have him on the team that's not a necessarily ringing endorsement, but in terms of the stock, it got itself very expensive very quickly now they have to -- it's very hard to continue to build on the momentum they have, in my opinion. >> yeah, great interview and it just seems like it's still a very fluid situation so, i think the stock would have been up 1.5% today anyway, whatever the heck it is. it just seems like there's just a bid for that i give you credit on the other side of the desk, you thought this was going to happen into the holiday season or whatever it just seems like to be a bit of the meltup and it's more of the same microsoft seems to have a lot of optionality in this situation. >> i heard satya say we're

committed to openai and sam, no matter what happens. again, there's so much fluidity to this situation. and microsoft views, they have been here before a.i., or before openai, and they'll be here after, so, i mean, i hear, you know, arguably the or one of the most powerful companies in the world being very confident on their position now, irregardless and -- regardless, by the way, i hate that. whether or not anything changes stru structurally to move in-house or not, clearly, microsoft has done a very deft gojob of staying cle to sam and his team and letting them know he supports them no matter what. >> so, i think if sam goes back to a.i., and it was as if none of this happened, i think it's probably a little bit worse for microsoft in that you had a lot of customers fleeing a.i. to go to anthropic or whatever, because they're unclear of what

a.i. will be, and so, i got to think that those customers who are fleeing will go through with that, and so a.i. is there, therefore weaker, to the extent that microsoft has some ownership stake in that, i would think it would be less valuable. >> more than 100 customers have contacted anthropic to bring their business to those startups, as opposed to openai, and the underlying threat of talent that is just going to hit the bid when it comes to offers. because we don't know what's going on at openai, i'm going to go to salesforce, he's going to match my salary and stock compensation >> karen started the show talking about the bidding war. it's fascinating it's now -- it seems as though we were in a position last year, the only panic we saw to the upside it feels as if the panic we're seeing now in terms of a lot of these stocks is to the upside. people are tripping over themselves to get in the question is, what's going to be the catalyst to stop that and maybe this is the bell ringing that we've been waiting for. >> yeah, you know, another really important point,

enterprises like certainty this is what karen is saying the idea of all the uncertainty. the large language models, that's not important >> again, 8:00 p.m. eastern time for a special report with jon fortt, satya tnadella. as far as stock are concerns, i think stocks would have been up 1.5% today or whatever anyway. i give you credit on the other side of the desk. you thought this was going to happen into the holiday season or whatever. it is more of the same. microsoft seems to have a lot of options in 24 situation. >> i heard satya say we're committed to opening ai and sam no matter what happens. again, there's so much fluidity to this situation and microsoft views they have been here before ai or open ai and will be here after. i hear arguably the or