i watch my son and his comrades and they're usually texting one another. they can be having a same conversation -- >> my oldest is 5 and i'm already at war. >> hold it off hold it off. no phones. no social media. thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. all righty welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine at the new york stock exchange make or break hour begins with the earnings report on nvidia set to report in ot. so much at stake no stock in the s&p has done better this year shares up 240% that's all it is only up more than 20% this month alone. and it is trading right around an all time high as well we're going to race you up to the numbers with key shareholders and top analyst stacy rascomb. your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. that stock has been in the red all day long that's following five straight

days of gains. you'll forgive the market if it takes a breather tech down as well. microsoft getting back some of its recent gains the drama with openai still unfolding there. as for yields, they are falling. look at the ten-year note yield. if there is a standout, it is from burlington. that company raising the lower end of its guidance and that's good enough to send shares surging by better than 20% takes us to our talk of the tape the last of the megacaps to report maybe the most important one yet, given the hype around a.i. and what this stock has done this year. the question now, can that record run continue? let's ask odyssey's jason snipe, joe terre anova. the most important thing to watch for in ot is what?

>> i think only a few things to watch on this print. it is a major print, but it is the data center number where is the data center number in the quarter where is it in the guide from the print itself, those are the only numbers it is so big that nothing else in the income statement or anything really matters. i think when we get to the call, there is other things, beyond just the numbers we'll want to hear, there is a narrative that goes with the numbers they sell. we want to hear anything they can tell us on their visibility, like investors are getting nervous, the numbers are so big, so quickly they're worried about sustainability anything they can tell us about the next year and then potentially into 2025, anything they can tell us on visibility and then they can tell us on how they know the parts are getting used, anything they can tell us on supply versus demand. i think on top of that, the other thing people -- china, clearly the export controls limited their abilities to shift their current products into china. they're supposedly developing new products that will be able to be shipped and people want to

know if we should be writing china completely off or not. anything they can give us on that will be important, but when the actual paper hits, it is the data center number that's all that matters. >> sustainability, interesting word that stacy uses i think that's apropos here. how much better can it get they wowed us so far over the last two quarters. what can they say this time that is going to live up to that hype >> well, that's the challenge that you have if you're trying to invest or trade off of a quarterly earnings report. 15% of the s&p 500's performance year to date is attributable to nvidia without question this is the stock market mvp the problem is that the expectation now is always beat and raise. beat and raise is what they must come in and do it is like you go to a restaurant, and the chef keeps bringing out the best dish he can serve you, sooner or later there is a falloff in the meal

you're being served. >> real quick, right now, do they really have to raise? how much more can they possibly raise? they gave you guidance that was so stratospheric, maybe they have to say, you know what, we're on course to meet the guidance that we already gave. you think they'll raise again? >> i actually love the way you described that because that speaks directly towards how you should own, how you should own the stock. there is a lot of volatility surrounding earnings reports statistically that put that into context. tonight, options are implying a 7.5% post earnings move. here is something that is very interesting. over the last 20 quarters this company has beat on earnings 19 times out of 20. they have a streak of 18 consecutive quarters of beating on revenue in the 19 of 20 quarters that they have actually beat, guess what, 14 times the stock went

up, 6 times the stock went down. don't be surprised if they come out, they beat and raise, it is a spectacular number and the stock goes down. >> that's what happened last quarter. >> what you want to do is have a steady hand. >> jason, what is your read here what are you thinking going in >> yes, so, i mean, you know, joe pointed out really appropriately i think what is important to me going forward is a sustainability absolutely of demand going forward i think china absolutely is a concern in the longer term, not necessarily in the near term as stacy mentioned, there are other chips they're creating that will be available for sale in china, but china is 20% to 25% of the business. data center absolutely will be the big number i'm looking for gaming to start to reaccelerate and grow from here but, again, $200 billion of

market cap has been added so far this month the stock to your point already has won 240% year to date we'll see how the numbers report if they do $16 billion of revenue, that's 170% of last year's number at this time so, very excited about the quarter. i think it will be a strong print and it will carry into following quarters into next year. >> they can't just keep beating and raising forever. can they maybe i'm the one who is crazy here >> look, they say trees don't grow to the sky. nothing can go up and up forever. the question is how long can they -- there is two things. there is the tactical question, these questions about sustainability and do they near pocket we have seen them before there is the broader question, do you own this stock for the near term. in five years, ten years, how big is this opportunity and

we're early and in five years are we going to be talking about numbers that are materially higher than what we're talking about today? whether or not they beat or miss in two quarters or four quarters or whatever, if you're owning the stock, that is what you're owning i personally do believe that the overall opportunity is enormous. i believe we're early. i do think that in five years, ten years we'll be talking numbers materially higher than we're talking about today. and in terms of that air pocket or sustainability risk, i get the nervousness, i don't think the time to worry is now the numbers are going up they're going to beat and raise. that seems reasonably clear, given the amount of demand and everything we're hearing >> the fact that you can make a credible argument that there is still so much material upside ahead is astounding, given what they have already done now, what about the stock? the stock is up 240% year to date it is up better than 20% in a

month. it was $100 on halloween it is $500 as i ask you this question what does that mean for the print? >> this is one of the prints where i feel like you can hand me the earnings report and i'm not sure i could tell you which way the stock is going to go if the number is too good, maybe that's a problem it causes a worry about sustainability to pull in. at this point, look, i think the number itself is going to be very good. i think the narrative that they're going to story is going to be good they're not going to say anything on the call that makes anybody come off of it thinking the opportunity is smaller than before the call started. i think you have to be there but as i think somebody said, you have to have a steady hand with this one. a strong stomach, the stock can be volatile. if you look at it over time, they have been up, like they

delivered. >> what about competition? we heard this week, microsoft announced a new chip others are going to be racing to catch up is that material enough to even worry about? the narrative from the beginning of the year to now is well, they run the game it is the only game in town or at least to this point the only credible monetizable one where they charge so much for what they sell and they're already doing that how should we think about competition? >> people get worried about internal silicon you mention microsoft. it is not new. google has been doing their own -- they deployed, they make something called the tp, they have been delivering it for eight years. it is not new. the idea that everybody is working on their own chips is not new. amazon deployed some do you think the opportunity is large or not if you think it is large, there is room for other players, number one

number two, i don't know if we have the time to get into the discussion here, there is a whole discussion to be had about where to use general purpose or more programmable silicon versus the more custom design chips. >> we'll have to do that somewhere else for sure. >> let me look at my calendar. that sounds really amazing conversation i definitely want to have it no question. >> i think they're fine. >> you own broadcom too. >> i do. >> make me credible argument right now that i don't want to buy broadcom here if i am not in either of the names. do i want to buy broadcom or nvidia in the here and now broadcom is no slouch either the stock is up 90% over the last 12 months up 15% in a month. we don't talk about it as incessantly as we talk about nvidia. >> broadcom was for me was a more reasonable alternative to

amd. so that's the choice i made. it wasn't -- i don't make the distinction where i want to own broadcom or i want to own nvidia i look at broadcom, measure it against amd. to stacy's point on this, if they miss tonight, i think there is tremendous demand underneath the market from portfolio managers that have not participated in nvidia's rally and i think that demand is going to be well entrenched. a lot of buying on the downside. >> okay. stacy, i'll say thank you and let you go appreciate you being with us as we run up to what is a highly anticipated earnings report. i want to continue the conversation with these guys and broaden it out more to megacap joe, to microsoft, which has been at a high, obviously. a little bit back today. still got the chaos around openai no one knows how that's going to end up in terms of the megacap universe, this report, i don't want to talk about nvidia specifically anymore, but its

importance to this gripe,oup wh had an incredible run is what? >> i think it will exemplify the spending on advancing, the innovation from artificial intelligence to generative a.i. is there i heard dan nathan say he believes that microsoft will overtake apple in terms of market cap and never look back that's a comment i can't agree with anymore he's spot on with that i think microsoft, when we look at it and measure it relative to apple in the coming years, there is going to be such a remarkable distinction where the premium will be paid from microsoft, and clearly the situation as it relates to openai, i think now microsoft wins in any scenario whether sam altman stays at openai or whether sam altman goes to microsoft, they're going to be the mass. >> not like microsoft is trailing by such a dramatic amount in any way. jason, how would you answer that question what is at stake for this group, which has carried this market so

far? >> so, you know, i think the major point, i think joe just alluded to it, my focus is on the cap apex being penspent on i i see many of the other names in the space, i think there is room for growth there is room for competition. my focus again is this material spend and programmatically what is happening, what is going to actually happen for productivity once this artificial and generative a.i. is installed in different businesses and different sectors across the globe. >> let's be honest, do you feel like these stocks can keep up the pace the moment there is a real whiff of soft landing, like a legitimate one, we truly believe that the cuts are in the cards, et cetera. there may be a rotation. there may be a rotation to more cyclical areas of the market and

massive catch-up trade if the market wants to take that kind of a turn. >> 100%. i flip it on the other side. when we think about a lot of the rule-based money managers that have been managing throughout the year and throughout generations, there are reasons why they cannot be overweight some of the names that have run so much, the magnificent seven that we talked about throughout the the year in the near term, the catch-up can be in megacap and other semiconductor cap stocks a lot of that can happen i think for the overall health of the market going into next year, yes, the cyclicals have been beaten down and deserve a catch-up trade i think that happens next year. >> if you're rules-based, if you see a breakdown deterioration in fundamentals and technicals, yes, you could be a seller if you're discretionary, you're

hesitant to sell because you got burned in q4 of 2022 you are going to really give these stocks the benefit of the doubt if it appears there is a slippage in the fundamentals. >> speaking of discretionary, amazon is an interesting story jason, do you own amazon or not? >> i do. i do >> let me ask you this there is these reports by our own david faber that bezos has been selling and selling large. and may in fact still be doing that i'm looking at an email that cramer sent out to his investing club with the headline, don't buy the amazon sell-off yet. i don't think anyone wants to be on the other side of jeff bezos selling. you're on the other side of him today, you're in the stock how do you feel about this >> right right. so i think i saw it as pulling back around 3% he was trading around 1.6 million shares of stock. these events happen throughout the season

bezos is going to do what he needs do for his own personal life and business life so i wouldn't necessarily get ahead of it today. we don't know how long -- how much more selling there is there. but, you know, i believe in the long-term fundamentals of amazon and what has been exciting to me is, you know, jassy is at the helm now aws was his baby but really, really important to me is how operational margins have really started to grow over the last couple of quarters. that's what's really exciting about amazon this year and going forward. >> is it interesting to you, joe, that of the megacaps between alphabet and microsoft and apple and meta and amazon and nvidia, alphabet is the only one in the green today and i think that ties directly into what is happening around openai and microsoft, they try to figure out whether sam altman is going to be under their roof or if he's going to be back at openai and what the financial

implications and the relationshiprelation s ship implications are going to be about that. they're saying don't count us out just yet, maybe this is better for all of us, and stop talking about just microsoft. >> absolutely. i said yesterday, i believe this is a situation where all can be winners. clearly when you look at the intellectual team that was built in 2018 by elon musk, peter tet teal, reed hoffman, and the openai team it was to slow down the progress on a.i., bringing over the chief signcientists frm alphabet for a.i i think alphabet is sitting back, they're breathing a sigh of relief to a degree and i believe to your point that alphabet looks at this and says, okay, come our way, we're going to gain a lot of intellectual capital as well.

>> we'll see where this goes over the next handful of days. speaking of, jason, have a great holiday. thanks for being here. a check on top stocks to watch now. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> let's start with vm ware shares, lower after broadcom received all required regulatory approvals to acquire the cloud computing company and these approvals did come from china. it is down almost 5% right now as broadcom does plan to close this $69 billion acquisition on wednesday. there was a little bit of a holdup in china, but not anymore. analysts at oppenheimer upgrading c3 a.i. they remain, quote, one of the few pure plays helping customers drive new revenue sources. shares are up almost 2%. >> all right i'll talk to you in a few.

we're just getting started here. up next, liz ann sounders is back breaking down her forecasts for the markets. what looks to be happening in the new year that's after this break. we're live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. together, we built something truly beautiful. it takes years of dedication to get to this milestone. the new york stock exchange is a symbol of what america is all about the potential of an american dream. it is day one. a lot of work has happened to lead to this historic moment. the only way you can move a society forward is a true expression of freedom. ♪♪

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welcome back stocks taking a breather, but it has been a big year, especially in tech. so what's in store for the new year

let's bring in liz ann sonders now. good to see you. welcome back >> thank you, scott. happy thanksgiving. >> yes, same to you. i'm sorry i missed you as well at impact. but -- >> yeah, ditto >> do it next year. >> that nasty covid thing. >> it is good to have you back >> thank you >> i'm looking at the notes. you say that it doesn't yet look like a durable new bull market that says to me, you're not a believer in what is happening in the market right now, in terms of this rally and why not? >> well, first of all, the -- as we know, this year has been dominated by the magnificent seven. if you look under the surface, equal weight, 493, small caps, i think the leadership there or lack thereof is reflective of the uncertainties we talk about, policy and where the economy is. it is just in cap weighted indexes. they're biased on the upside there was lots of analysis done by us and everybody else at the

point where we hit the one-year mark in the move from the s&p low now 14 months ago, 13 months ago. and the absence of participation by small caps, by banks. and there was still something lacking. that doesn't mean that the indexes have to retest prior lows for sustainable move, i think you need to see a broadening out and i do think there is a lot of money itching to move into areas other than those megacap names and that may be where the opportunity sits next year >> so, the bottom line is that until you get those other stocks to do anything in a meaningful and sustainable, probably the best way of saying it, a sustainable way, it is just not -- you can't say we're good. you just can't yet say we're good >> you can just say the market is incredibly concentrated and performance is driven by a small handful of names that's not in and of itself an

imminent risk for the market that often happens with cap weighted indexes you get performance bias it is when you got dramatic underperformance by the remainder of stocks. now, it is not as bad as it was at the beginning of june when you had a record low percentage of the s&p at that time outperforming the index itself over the prior three months, over the prior six months. that's improved a little bit but i think broader participation, more soldiers on the front lines, so to speak, as unpopular as battlefront analogies are, i think would be a sign of a more sustainable rally, especially if financials and banks in particular can start to play some catch-up. >> what is the likelihood we get that >> we probably have to get past some of the near term concerns with regard to some of the debt coming due as we roll into 2024, the constraints from a credit environment. i don't think we have anything

resembling 2008 scenario but i think that's clearly one of the things holding banks back is even though we are not suffering from contagion associated with what happened back in march, what is more idiosyncratic, but we have concerns within those same smaller regional banks of deposit flight and exposure to kind of the weak links within commercial real estate we may need to have a little less opacity there to get a sense of whether what looks to be a pretty decent earnings trajectory for those stocks provides enough comfort to get more sustainable buying interest. >> it is interesting the fed minutes today, there were no surprises. a lot of the similar language that we have been consistently hearing. they did say, though, to your point, that financial conditions have tightened significantly not that that's new. but that it is on their radar.

now, they obviously feel, i would assume, and we think, that they can control the fallout so to speak from the fact that those conditions have tightened significantly in their words you're just not wholly convinced there is still to be some level of fallout that is going to weigh on the market at some point. >> i think it is more in terms of the commercial real estate exposure, more of a simmering problem overtime as opposed to a lehman-esque moment in time. if you look at how widely spread it is, the fact that the exposure is in the traditional banking system, but also the shadow banking system, and a graduation in terms of when the debt comes due, so i don't think it is a moment in time, but specific to the fed, one thing we have to remember when looking at these particular fed minutes is that was a discussion that happened before the fairly benign inflation report. i think since then it very much cements the idea that the fed

has done in this cycle i think what is still yet to be decided is whether the markets expectation of cuts starting as soon as may has validity and if you extrapolate the current combination of circumstances, i'm not suggesting that's what's going to happen, but if you do, inflation not yet at the fed's target, employment having had some cracks, but still hanging in there, the economy doing okay to me, that doesn't justify rate cuts, even though if inflation continues to come down, it means real rates go up even without the fed doing anything i think they at least subtly pushed back against that, if you read into maybe the back story of the minutes >> so, if you believe that the fed is going to cut, let's just for argument's sake say may. the market is placing a bet it is around that period of time, would you feel comfortable then buying small cap stocks here

last week the russell was up 5%. in the last month, now, much of it done last week, we're up about 7% what is the moment that you would say, you know what, okay they're going to cut, and that is an area i need to be in now >> all right, well, if they cut, it is probably because you had more deterioration than the economy broadly in the labor market more specifically, which could be the trigger by the way, i think if and when that happens, whether or not it is declared a recession, i'm not sure that matters as much. near term weakness in the economy, i think it is the better scenario from the perspective of a fed for the equity market. it probably means a further rerating down in forward estimates, but i think what the trigger is to your question is a sense that the forward estimates, the trajectory turning back higher are valid because the swing factor in small caps is much larger than the swing factor in large caps

the rub is whether we can rely on those 2024, 2025 estimates. i'm not sure that they really reflect reality at this point. that said, small caps, you can't look at monolithically russell 2000, 850 stocks in t 30% of the index is zombie companies. 40% are not profitable so if you want to use an index to start as a base to look for opportunities down the cap spectrum, start with the s&p 600 because it has a profitability filter so i think you still want to stay up in quality, even if you go down in cap >> what is also inherent in the point you make is that you don't subscribe to the belief that the fed will cut because it can. not because it has to. they can cut because inflation has trended to the point where they feel comfortable doing that cutting rates. >> but if you have inflation still above their target, the labor market not deteriorating and the economy still hanging in

there, i think they would view that as too much of a risk to start cutting, not to mention potential credibility issues so i think you -- i actually think the point at which the fed starts to telegraph or initiate rate cutting, i think where they're going to get that message from is probably the other mandate aside from infl inflation, meaning the labor market in the hiking cycle, they were focused on and driven by the -- half of their mandate that is the inflation. i think what is going to -- what they'll key off of more in terms of when to cut is probably going to be the labor market coming into clear focus where they have an eye on both of the mandates opposed to just inflation. >> i got you great having you, as always. happy thanksgiving to you and your family. >> you too thank you. >> that's liz ann sonders joining us here. up next, five star stock picks we're back on "closing bell" after this k that all money managers

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welcome back the s&p is on track for its best month in more than a year. our nechxt guest sees more potential upside kevin simpson of capital wealth planning is here with us at post nine welcome back first and foremost, apple, it got called away. you sold it. sold it, but called away. >> it seems like we talk about it every month or two for the past year, year and a half and a covered call writer, we got the apple position called away the one thing i want to point out, this is the ninth time in the past 12 years that i've had apple called out of the portfolio completely in the eight previous instances, six of those times we were able to get back in cheaper so even though it is not a linear up trend at this point, it is not the worst exit position but in $13 in premium over the past two months

we're out 185, 187.5 and any pullbacks will be back in the stock. >> the stock was, you know, 167, 169. >> two months. >> and here we are, 191 yesterday. to your point about when this thing starts running, a covered call. >> that's the risk of a covered call sometimes you don't make all the upside i think at 29 times earnings, there is still a little bit of a stretch. they had eight quarters where they haven't had accelerated growth so there is potential weakness there. there is the berkshire put, the apple put, the s&p put, but i bet we get a chance to get back into it again. >> with the news that came off -- >> i got news out of d.c there is a major enforcement action by the way today in the cryptocurrency space to eamon javers in washington with the latest. >> take a live look at the department of justice where you see the attorney general merrick

garland is now standing next to treasury secretary janet yellen. the picture you're seeing here is unprecedented we have not seen this attorney general and this secretary of the treasury do a joint press conference before today. and the reason is because of the scale of the alleged criminality they're announcing here in this deal with binance, binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world the doj says pleaded guilty today and agreed to pay over $4 billion to resolve allegations related to violations of the bank's secrecy act, failure to register as a money transmitting business, and violations of the international emergency economic powers act those in relation to u.s. sanctions. they're also saying as an individual, binance's founder and chief executive, a canadian national, also pleaded guilty to failing to maintain an effective antimoney laundering program, violation of the bank's secrecy act and he has now resigned as the ceo of binance couple of other details here,

merrick garland says using new technology to break the law does not make you a disruptor, it makes you a criminal also some information here, scott, from the department of treasury, this is the largest enforcement action in the history of the treasury department and you get a sense of why that is when you read the specifics of what the treasury is laying out here in terms of alleged criminal activity that took place on binance, that binance did not inform the u.s. government about over a period of years they're saying binance never once filed a suspicious activity report with the u.s. treasury. that's something that is pretty standard in the financial industry, not being done in the crypto space they say as a result, terrorist financing took place on the binance exchange including for groups like al qaeda, isis, hamas, and others. they're saying that ransomware was paid for on the binance exchange they're saying that child sexual abuse materials were paid for on the binance exchange

by also saying all sorts of illegal activity including drug purchases were transferred on the exchange through scams and other illicit activity all of that is the reason why the treasury department is now imposing monitoring on binance which will get active reports inside the firm to understand what is going on in real time. monitoring has never been done before in the cryptocurrency space. we have seen that in other criminal allegations in corporate america. this will be a first for the crypto space and also there is an important detail here, scott, they're calling the sar lookback, the suspicious activity report, the treasury department will get a look back at suspicious activity that took place historically on binance. they're going to get intelligence on all sorts of transactions that took place on that exchange going back for years. it will be a treasure trove for u.s. investigators, intelligence, law enforcement and the rest as they pour

through all the transacts and try to make connections between all those various groups and follow the money going back years here a really storic announcement that we're witnessing from merrick garland and janet yellen right now. >> appreciate that eamon javers live in washington, d.c. also want to bring in kate rooney who as you know follows the crypto space talk to me about the broader fallout here as well as the tremendous fall from grace for not only cz, but just this space in general obvious little coming on the heels of ftx and sam bankman-fried and the trial you covered blocks from where i'm sitting right now. >> cz was a global leader in this space i want to read this statement, we got a tweet or an x from cz, he said he stepped down as ceo of binance, it was not easy to let go emotionally, it was the right thing to do, he says i made mistakes and i must take responsibility it is best for the community, binance and myself

he says that richard tang, who is the global head of reege nam ma regional markets, he's the new ceo of binance today he's a qualified leader, talks about his experience in financial services and he was the ceo of financial services regulatory authority in abu dhabi. familiar with regulators here. he says as a shareholder and former ceo, i will remain available to the team to consult as needed. consistent with the framework set out in our u.s. agency resolution he says what is next, he's going to take a break, he said he has not had a single day off for the last six and a half years. long statement here, scott he says at the end, funds are safe stunning fall from grace for cz, the head of the largest crypto exchange, the founder, former head of binance. but comes after you had sam bankman-fried admitting -- excuse me, being found guilty to

seven criminal counts. you had the winklevoss twins, this is the latest salvo by major u.s. regulators going after this industry. i will say the reaction i'm getting from investors, those in the crypto space is actually pretty optimistic. they're saying this was the last shoe to drop, the big uncertainty hang over the markets. and if it can survive something like this happening, cz getting taken out as the ceo of this company, there is optimism maybe this is now priced in, they know the price tag is in terms of the resolution, the plea deal here, binance is not shutting down it makes up 30% of global volume it was 80% at one point. worst case scenario, binance needing to shut down is not happening. a little bit of optimism here despite this being negative news interesting take there from some market participants. >> yeah, appreciate that kate rooney, thank you kate rooney, eamon javers reporting on this development

out of washington, the implications for the broader cryptocurrency industry. let me turn back to you, kevin simpson. back to microsoft. that's what we were talking about when i had to go to washington you sold the covered call against the microsoft position, you bought broadcom, we're waiting on nvidia earnings tell me about these. >> we knew the apple position would get called away. we wanted to maintain exposure in the tech space. broadcom is a company that qualifies, has a good dividend, good dividend growth, you know everything is going to hang on i nvidia's earnings. we got news that the vm ware deal was approved. there was some sell the news on both stocks today. that will help them a lot. the combined parts are very profitable. >> you bought more cme group. >> unlike apple, didn't have revenue growth for eight quarters, double digit growth for nine quarters on the top

line, 9% on the bottom line. they might pay a special dividend last year around christmas they gave up $4.50 special dividend they pay 2% normal yield if they do it again no guarantee they will, a 4% yield on a great stock and incredible growth. >> you want to talk about what you think the year ahead will mean for dividend paying stocks. >> hopefully better for 2024 >> dividend growers did okay but dividend payers had a terrible year. >> i'm a dividend growth strategy not about yield to me. we didn't have that great a year in our universe. it is these megatech a.i. stocks thank goodness we could own microsoft and apple. >> in context, you had a great last year in a horrible market year because your strategy worked very well this was such an idiosyncratic if you will market year that it throws your types of strategy out the window. >> my whole point going into 2022, if we don't lose any

money, that's our job. put a belt on, suspenders, pretty much everything with the exception of nvidia is probably close to where it was at the end of 2021. now that we're done with rate hikes and i feel pretty comfortable saying that, this gives us an opportunity for the second half of next year into '25 and '26 where you see rate cuts and a broader expansion of the market still want to own the big names, even though we can't -- people pay up for growth, dividend stocks should have their say in 2024 >> all right we shall see thanks for being here. happy thanksgiving kevin simpson, capital welt planning. up next, track the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. >> discount travel coming your way. option traders are betting on some volatility. and we're going to get some more from insurance companies details next

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highs as well. no major news catalyst aside from aig acquiring hughes insurance and upgrading the stock to buy switching gears, allegiant travel is shedding 3% right now after increased activity in the options market the december 15th $170 call has pretty much high implied volatility they're expecting a big stock move in the underlying stock and any direction. so the travel company separately also recently announced its plan for 12 new domestic discount routes, lower margins, could be a reason too stock down 3%. >> we will see you in "overtime" as we have those nvidia earnings kristina, thank you so much. we're just minutes away from that we'll give you a rundown of what to expect from that reporthe take you inside the market zone

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e*trade from morgan stanley cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day courtney reagan on the big moves in retail today. and kristina partsinevelos back to share what to watch for when nvidia reports in overtime what are you thinking of today all about what's going to happen in a little more than seven minutes. >> sometimes the market idles when it knows something big is ahead of it. nothing to disturb the general view maybe we have seen peak yields, peak dollar, all that stuff. those all removed the reasons to get negative and to sell we had three months of selling, worried about whether the economy could handle what was

going on with rates and now it is about is there going to be any fresh energy on the buy side beyond just trying to get exposure for year end rally. that's what remains to be seen as we get to overbought, resistance today type of action, if it persists, is the ideal way to consolidate a nice 10% rally maybe a little much to ask for >> courtney reagan, big day for the haves and the have-nots in retail, right? in terms of how the stocks are reacting. >> today's earnings report is messier than what we heard last week the stock moves are reflecting that american eagle shares are down 16%. to me, this move doesn't match the report the apparel retailer beat on earnings and revenue, stronger revenue forecast for the holiday season than the street was looking for. it is operating income forecast mostly below consensus i don't think it justifies this move kohl's down. just broader department store worries we have about the space and have had kohl's beat earnings, missed revenues and comps and issued a mixed forecast

burlington, up 20% on its 2024 guidance it is maintaining its previous holiday quarter guidance but said november is off to a solid start. more hopeful than what we heard from others. lowe's down 3% that's a conservative move in my view after missing on revenues, comps and lowering the forecast. abercrombie up 2.5%. this is muted considering i would consider abercrombie the strongest report again this quarter across retail. i would say that for the third straight quarter in my report card they hit it out of the park and issued some stronger guidance. >> courtney, thank you courtney reagan. it is hard to cover this space >> yeah. >> it is hard to cover the space because you can report good, the stock can go down, report -- and the stock goes up. >> these are pretty small market cap companies with a huge swing based on, you know, the final month of a quarter and that's how the comps break one way or the other. yes, very tough group to trade, some of them have a lot of short interest and they're seen as, you know, it is sort of a zero

sum gain we know not every mall store gets a lot of traffic. it is trading customers back and forth. up off the lows and the best buy really not selling off much on some sobering commentary, not the worst thing, though that's an ugly two-year chart for best buy. >> burlington, the big winner. kristina, here we go just -- >> here we go. the stock did close at an all time high yesterday. investors have high hopes. there is a consensus of 170% quarterly revenue growth this quarter versus last year that translates to $16.2 billion in q3 revenue estimates. and this optimism comes despite updated export restrictions and tight gpu supply but, after a 241% year to date stock growth, management is going to have to convince investors they have not hit this

a.i. peak and there is incremental revenue to be had. investors want to see demand once supply constraints subsided the cto said the supply of nvidia's a.i. chips was improving which could be a good thing for supply the overhang is china. nvidia may be working around chips, is that enough to offset the export impact given china contributes 20% of data center rev revenue. gaming weakness. they're expecting a decline in the december quarter what does that mean for nvidia expect stock reaction given the average one-day post nvidia earnings move over the past 20 quarters is 6% in either direction. and moving from the magnificent seven as well, given nvidia a.i. demand commentary will be a tailwind for the group scott? >> we can't wait kristina, thank you for setting us up for that back to mike santoli 90 seconds left in the show.

stacy, top of the broadcast, said there is still a lot of material upside ahead. don't think they can't continue to raise. >> yeah. that is -- that's in the numbers, getting into the numbers. the sustainability question that stacy highlighted is the whole game really because if you -- i was looking at this, under 30 times, everyone talks how it is cheaper because earnings estimates are up so much if you look out three years, 2026, $25 a share is the estimate right now it is only 20 times earnings anticipated in that year that implies $60 billion of net income sales is 55 billion. it shows you they're supposed to earn on the bottom line in three years what they're taking in on the top line this year that's a massive trajectory. kudos if you can count on it that's why it matters so much exactly what the angle of the cent is in terms of sales and how long that pipeline is. >> that's what the whole game has been about, making a massive bet on the future and hoping

that these companies are going to realize what we're bidding them up to believe they can. >> and how long the buildout takes and all the rest of it >> good stuff. there's the bell i'll send it to "ot " with morga and jon. >> the s&p and nasdaq snap their five day winning streaks that's the score card on wall street the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morngan brennan with jon fortt. >> a.i. driven gains gets ready to report earnings in moments. the stock hitting fresh highs this week ahead of the print we have a great lineup of experts ready to parse the report. >> we'll talk with the ceo of $100 billion medical device company medtronic, getting a pop today on the back of results and easing some of the fears