appreciate my co-anchors, i appreciate everybody who works -- >> that is why we're giving thanks, me, too. >> it is thanksgiving, too in that we're here and ready to go. >> happy thanksgiving. >> this is my favorite holiday because it is not about gifts, it is about spending time with family and i hope you all get the opportunity do that. >> and don't put the stuffing in the night before >> no, no, no. we'll see you back here on black friday have a great thanksgiving. right now squawk on the street good wednesday morning i'm carl quintanilla and jim krarm has cramer has thg off. sam altman back at openai, and opec meeting delay our roadmap begins with ai sam altman headed back andi

individual i can't continues to ride the group >> and opec is delaying a meeting. >> deer owingig shares are unde pressure as profit does his appoints but it let's begin with openai they have agreed to sam altman returning. bret at a ttaylor will be clair. and microsoft is encouraged and after referencing the decision to john, they say that i'm looking forward to returning to openai and building on our strong partnership with microsoft. some report being that altman

has agreed to at least an enter alves that the circumstances that led to his initial exit still a lot of questions >> employees want to go back to what he they were focused on microsoft comes out looking pretty good. they played it well. either the prospect of altman and brockman and hiring those employees or what was the preferred scenario is the one in which he goes back and things kind of go on the way they were with a different board and that i think is the key here you had members of that board, you know, whose instincts were very different than altman oigs and that is where a lot of the conflicts arose. but we haven't gotten any specifics of what was done or

not done of what they felt was particularly harmful to the company. as we look at the new members of the board. those are more in the capitalist realm of things than altruists. >> and lar layrry summers has been former treasury secretary.n former treasury secretary. and i looked back at the tweets and he said that it is coming

for the doctors, he had it doors, white collar.had it doors white collar and bret taylor has also, you know, been sort of front and center in these negotiations larry summers i believe more of the surprise and third guy is the guy who was there before >> the one remaining member. and it still doesn't change the actual company and that is the key division altman seems much more focused on the commercial viability of the product and the ability to make money they are capped. investors are ultimately capped at various valuations.

so not sure -- last year i may have sold this stock haven't been annual to confirm that what we know is that this saga has come to some sort of a conclusion >> and of course rivals notwithstanding coming out with competing products so will people have second thoughts >> and i think it is reminder that there are a lot of options out there. not just chap oig. chap oig and anthropic and the sign tine partnership. microsoft obviously going at it. going and meta but they will have to navigate washington at some point

this is an you go regulated situation at this point. members of congress are working on it.regulated situation at this point. members of congress are working on it. >> yeah, that makes sense. and let's move on to nvidia. this is related of course. largely a result of ai and the affect that it is taking over so many data centers. shares looked a little down and now a little flat. and this after the chip make did post quarterly results that were way above street consensus sales more than tripling guidance is offsetting the forecasts in the wake of rules for imports for that country and here is what they had to say on the earnings call >> ai era is in full stream and

created a new need for an ai factory. there is generating ai and ai factory workloads are different and incremental to legacy data center workloads supporting tasks ai fa icfactories run copilotind expanding the $1 trillion traditional infrastructure empower the ai industrial revolution >> and we've talked about the cloud providers. and their needs in the data center were not insignificant. but this changed everything in terms of running generative ai, the large nge language mondels

and so they are driving things such as co-pilot and the highest end chips in which they basically control the market into these data centers too drive the applications >> and hr uhuang said that it cn drive 2025 nd the stock creation the fact that it also flat shows yyou ho much good news is already baked in >> and two targets with the seven handle wells not far behind

and jim said that the company can positirosper, but it is easr with than without. and isso a headwind. >> and she warned on it. and to jim's point, people knew that this would be a headwind. and they quantified it a bit more 20% to 25% of the data center revenue comes there china, but they are working at revenues to sell the chips without violating the import controls for china. for nvidia investors, maybe some relief.

our next guest says that there is data center know mimomentum d growth driven by the cloud and so aaron, happy thanksgiving good to have you with us >> good to have be with you. >> and maybe this is the most important element, how do you think about the china head winkd? >> yeah, i think that is obviously you mentioned 20% to to% of data center revenue. bond the next month, you know, i think that it is short lived i think that they will have products on out that start to recover some of the china lost business as we look into the april quarter and subsequently and they are working with

customers and working with the u.s. government. i think the short lived impact will start to list next fiscal year >> and some of the risks, competition in the gaming space, obviously maybe some supply delays because of the third party element this how important are those? >> yeah, i think that tit will e dominated. we think the gaming position ha returned to the normal i think that the narrative will continue to shift towards the data center and be driven by just the flat form growth. not just the leadership position, but net working. >> and what about competition? we mentioned the tight partnership with microsoft, but

they are unveiling their own homegrown shifts amd is coming up with the generative ai targeted chips is that threat for nvidia's dominance? >> everybody as we see competition start to gee involve, this is still a company that is a 90% market share player and so being able to launch their profd, product, we think that they will have a strong showing. and we still think that nvidia given the full platform for this company they will lead the market for the foreseeable future.

>> so what is the appropriate price target >> 23$20.43 and we needed to coalesce the expectation versus of range. and so we think that this multiple can sustain mid 30 multiple we think that 1software monetization ask support that. and so median of about 45. so we see 35 as a reasonable multiple >> and the openai drama over the past half a week i guess, do you think that does anything to the trajectory of that innovation? >> you know, i don't know that from an nvidia perspective it changes much of anything it obviously highlights the

importance here. i think we'll go from the emphasis of the training side to the interesting side and i felt that last night nvidia leaned a bit more vocally on the interesting side >> and so an important print we'll see what the market does with it. have a great holiday thank you. >> thank you still to come oil under pressure as opec delays its meeting. take a look at the pre-market as we look for maybe light volume trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop

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thursday november 30th which is the first day of the cop 28. so kind of interesting on its own. here is what be know the opec meeting is delayed. oil is following why is news of a delay because as energy aspects and others are telling me this morning and we're still learning as we go on, there is concern that the delay is being caused by perhaps opec or saudi arabia's inability to establish other countries to share some of the pain on their total output the way opec work, i know it is a little weird, basically all the members and plus members, russia and others, have agreed to output quotas those were set back in june. looks like what is happen sk

that saudi arabia is expected to extend cut ngs to to 24 but wants others to share the pain. nigeria in particular wants to put more oil on the market and if the rest of opec or the saudis are saying that we need to all sort of hang together, then this is giving the market an indication that perhaps that very fraught tieup is not what it was and there is a bit of market nervousness out there >> and i was going to ask how unusual or typical it is to get this kind of split opinion in opec >> i think these are all

sovereign nations that appear as a group, but they are also looking out for their own nation's best interests. so i'm not sure that there is anything in some cases normal with opec. you go back dweck decades and s lasted 17 or 20 dies but the market is jumpy because i think that some countries particularly as i referenced nigeria and others are looking to add more oil to the market. but this is not just an opec story. this is guyana to and brazil adding more oil to the market iran adding more oil as well and so you have a world where there is more oil coming out from a lot of nonopec nations and i'm looking at you united states as well as we're at near or at record production. look at that, perfect timing, at the same time demand in china is not what people had hoped.

>> and we'll see what the ceasefire oig does to the geopolitical die naynamic as wet some hostages released brian, thanks. and when we return, deere shares have taken a hit. futures still in the green though meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin.

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thanks giving tomorrow but santa is in the building

33 days until christmas we'll talk about how the holiday season is shaping with more color from the retailers this morning. openg llomg iabt 6 minutes.n ou

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deere down 5%. they issued 2024 guidance saying that they see a 10% decline. and that news overshadowing what was better than expected fourth quarter results. prices of key goods like soybeans are down. how much farmers are willing to spend. that is down 2023 from 2022. >> yeah, they cited a return to mid cycle sales levels and again as you point out, the outlook now calling for what is a significant drop in profitability. certainly below what had been

antic anticipated. >> and ag all equipment set to fall in the coming year. ag all income expected to be down and corn prices down 30% from the last year. and so that impacts deerdeere. >> yeah, and cat may be more associated with the construction side so similar market values $110 billion, $125 billion so certainly sizable companies and we're seeing the decline as well >> shows the uneven nest of all the markets. you can't take this and --nest

the markets. you can't take this and -- you can glean something about the ag economy and the prospects there, but the data continues do in tempe, durable goods soft but not a collapse >> and deere having covered them back in the day, their guidance is always conservative but it is obvious which company is extposed to construction. and that is caterpillar which is and i thanning on to gains for the year so we'll watch it. but the point about the larger economy is interesting.

journal had apiece about american shoppers having plenty of dry powder met. >> and turkey prices are down. [ bell ] >> and opening bell. and big board, it is macy's celebrating the thanksgiving data paid day parade and you can watch that tomorrow mornings department of small business services kicking off the holiday shopping season. >> nvidia shares not really changed but down it was a beat and a raise. remarkable strength. i guess for a stock up more than

200% for the s&p best performer, a lot of that good news is baked in >> seems to be what the market is saying. but to your point, you can't really ask go a better quarter growth is nothing short but extraordinary. even beyond anything anticipated. whether chatgpt, or anthropic, and on from there. you need nvidia. >> and it will start to impact the company in the next quarter. they are trying to meet the obviously the commerce department guidelines but that will hurt. expected but they did mention

that. there is uneven performance and citigroup says unless that you can have stabilization, it will be hard to see where sales growth goes froo here. >> yeah, urban down 14 and as for nordstrom, a revenue miss down almost 10 some applauding their

diversifying. >> and there is kayis cautious n ter. and with rack, they are trying to keep prices from not falling too far and bringing in more designs that it trendiest before here is what the ceo says. >> looking ahead, the absolute level of cost savings will stabilize as we've been focused on the priority for over a year. and however, we'll continue to seek out additional efficiencies and flow and improved productivity through inventory management and there is increased productivity for online orders

and better inventory positions of flow across the company >> oond some of the strategic priorities there it has pain a mix been a mixed going retail. bir quarters but worst outlooks. >> yeah, two large shareholders of the vmware has received a lot of stock and they are silver lake put up broad com and michael dell owns a lot of vmware and the question there in

particular with silver lake,s expectation is that when get the stock, which probably will be monday when they will sell a lot of it, i have them as much as $5 billion potentially. >> but anyway, they had been locked into the election for week but so nervous. >> and the top sggainers were norw norwegian, united, delta,

american, royal caribbean and carnival part of that lk the fact that it is like i to be the busiest obviously maybe busiest thanksgiving day holiday in several years but also the decline in oil >> yeah, worth pausing on this 331 was monday's average natural gas price. so that could be the chooeapest gas price since 2020 when they were cratering over covid. and below $3 this is 1 1 southern and midwestern states so that helps with the holiday travel >> and check out gasoline unleaded futures that will imply a further decline and that will tie into cpi at least headline.

>> and you have to look at core which shelter has been the problem there. and hp, i thought it would be a decliner but revenue a miss and earnings a beat. and there was commentary about the rebound of the cp market and i think that we have the sound bite about what he said about the overall market and what they are seeing >> we really think that the market has started to recover. second half was stronger than the first half and we expect the market grow in '24 compared to 23 today >> ond mmaybe a reason for the turnaround and also talking about building

ai into pcs. >> and he did say that it is not like consumers will immediately shift into ai pcs, but maybe slight -- >> what are a ii p krcs >> it would tell you what you need to do >> my computer can talk to me now. >> but it will be better >> all the thank sgiving very pissing. i like a executer that talks pretty and five of the biggest stocks are up rather nicely. amazon up 2.3% meta microsoft. they are up and you can see the index up 1.2%.

and microsoft, that could give you some reasons amazon perhaps is bounceback from yesterday but again only 10%, 15% of the overall -- >> yeah. >> but the ten year, 498 it was looking dicey and they were interpreted to, you know, the fed sticking to its resolve in fighting inflation, but then i think it became clear that they are stale since those fed minutes, we got a weak cpi report and a weaker jobs report. and so the buying resumed of treasuries and now we are making lows that we haven't seen since september. >> it is helpful

i don't know how much the fed will be happy seeing it. christine lagarde talking tough saying that we're not necessarily sure that our work is done. we have to see the market. because the problem is if we continue to see lower yields and weak dollar, that could spike on the progress and inflation is still too high for comfort. but the market is thinking that it is on a oneway ticket lower >> and a lot will be due to apple. and we talked about the personal life and granular succession philanthropy that is in place at apple. take a listen.

>> and we're a company that believes in working on success plans. so we have very detailed succession plans and because something that is unpredictable can always happen. i can step off the wrong curb tomorrow and hopefully that doesn't happen >> yeah, hopefully it doesn't happen >> i pray it doesn't >> are you able to say who is in line for succession? >> i can't say that, but i would say that my job is to prepare several people for the ability to succeed and i really want the person to come from within apple the next ceo and so that is my role is to make sure that there are several for the board to pick from >> speaking of apple, and succession, betterrkshire is the other story. they write at age 93, i feel good but fully realize that i'm

playing in extra innings we have the right ceo to succeed me in greg able. >> i find the apple comments more interesting with tim cook because he doesn't talk about it very much. he is thinking internally and there are a number of people who he would be grooming >> and number one responsibility of a board of directors to effectively conduct a succession process and pick properly. of course it is amazing how often they fail at that. but in it case, i agree, the fact that he did seem to identify his desire and the board's perhaps to be able to have a choice of people all of whom work at apple that is interesting. not that he is going anywhere. and of course you can't forget the success that he is having in following one of the most if not

the most single most revered members of the business world, steve jobs and look what they have been able to accomplish under tim cook does everybody have a pod show now? >> podcast >> whatever it is called >> and maybe weapon need to have a podcast so we could interview tim cook >> it is not enough. maybe a cool studio, some comfortable chairs >> that rawould help do you know who due a . >> and i cdo so the nonks. songs >> and yeah, this is so-called direct do cto killer so i have catch up >> and last couple years we got

some ratings from monday night football there was the largest television audience of the year last night. >> and so 18 of the 20 highest broadcasts for the year. this is the prod and the nfl is the product and of course it does -- espn brings it to you and what they pay for it and what others pay for it it is a must have. and it is working. >> and what is impressive, day

w s taylor swift wasn't even there >> statistics don't lie. they are better. >> and they were going to meet the parents. but she got delayed in brazil because of the hot weather there. >> of course >> were you up on in >> i'm up for some things. i can talk football with you >> that is my extent to talking football >> and this goes on in my house as well. my daughter brings me up to date on the other whole side. >> that is part of it now. >> totally. >> and so as we contemplate that, 4566 is the fresh high on the spy spies. and boonds got down to the lowet since september 20 and we'll be right back.

we mentioned deere and auto desk the biggest laggard they see 194 street at 20 1. we'll talk to the ceo. but overall, s&p up almost 28 points and dow up 170. we'll take a short break ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. travis, did you know you can get this season's covid-19 shot when you get your flu shot? huh. two things at once. two things at once!

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near record numbers of passengers expected to take to the skies today for thanksgiving holiday travel phil lebeau is at chicago o'hare with a look at how the industry is handling the big rush. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. it's been a smooth morning so far, that's the good news. you look at the total number of people flying the 12 days, 30 million people, 2.7 million are expected to fly today. that's according to the tsa, busiest day is sunday, as it always is. the tsa also says we should expect long lines, even the pre-check lines are long the one here at o'hare, it's had lengthy waits but nothing outr outrageous the faa is opening additional

airspace over the continental u.s. and the ocean along the east coast, in order to help with the traffic flow so there's less congestion out there. more than 49,000 flights today that's an increase of 3% compared to last year. and when you look at the number of people who are being flown, it's now at prepandemic levels it's above that. so the airlines, this is the tsa. they're screening more than 2.34 million people every single day this year. and, of course, that's going to surge during thanksgiving when so many people are flying. you would think all of this increased demand would be good news for the airline stocks? unfortunately, it hasn't been good news. they are all trading near their lows of the year though they're all getting a bit of a bump within the last couple of weeks what's the problem higher costs along with tighter margins. those two have been a double whammy that made a lot of people say i'm good on the airlines

right now. the question is what's the catalyst we typically see the catalyst going into the holiday season, that's not the case this year. and we know that right after the holidays, that first quarter, guys, that's a slow one for the airlines historically. and most people believe we've seen a lot of the pent-up demand that's been in the market that's played out we'll see what happens with the stocks over the next couple of months. phil, the capacity problems and the shortage problems, like when we would go to the gate and have to wait for a pilot to show up because they didn't have one, has all that been dealt with with the increased demand level still high >> reporter: for the most part i'm going to say that and sara you're going to take a trip and say i was there and the pilot didn't show up, they didn't have enough is there a shortage of pilots overall, could the industry use more pilots? yes. but we're not seeing the acute

shortages we saw nine months to 15 months ago. airlines have hired a lot of pilots in in the last couple of years. the regional jet operators they're suffering because a lot of those pilots, accrued enough hours, they could be brought up and hired by the fuel line airlines and that's why they've been able to beef up their pilot ranks. but no doubt still a tight market overall p not as bad as it was, but would they like to have more pilots sure they would. >> the other headline, fill, this morning out of the journal is about united. considering letting advertisers target customers based on passenger information it might show up in had your app or an inflight screen. interesting to watch the carriers explore alternate sources of revenue >> how do you get the extra revenue that's what this is about. think about the data the airlines collect we talked about this with not just airlines or other industries, how do you use that

data without making people feel like they're being violated? like, look, big brother is watching every single thing i do that's going to be the real challenge here if airlines can target customers? i can see a huge opportunity for them in terms of ancillary revenue. >> phil, thanks. busy weekend ahead that's our phil lebeau at o'hare. when we return, more on sam altman returning to enopai with s&p holding 4550 don't go anywhere.

(♪ music ♪) the walking tree is said to change its entire location in pursuit of sunlight (♪ ♪) where could reinvention take your business? accenture. let there be change.

good wednesday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks higher across the board, s&p up a third of one percent. oil prices are a story with crude down 4%. rates are down as well that is helping the tech trade c consumer discretionary, the ten year note yield falling below 4.4%

first time we've seen that level since september. microsoft leads the nasdaq nvidia is fluctuating. we'll talk about that post earnings 30 minutes into the trading session. here are movers we're watching deere is under pressure. in reporting better than expected earnings but coming in light guess, softness in the direct to consumer business. the retailer also giving a dim outlook for the holiday, forecasting revenue growth between 4 and 6% as mentioned, oil prices under pressure, dropping on news the opec plus meeting scheduled for this weekend has been delayed. carl we have consumer sentiment data out a couple of seconds ago. let's get to rick santelli. >> this is a november final. we'll replace the readings from two weeks ago. normally they're small this time they look like they're

a bit larger 61 was the mid month, the final read, 61.3 it is still when you factor it in, the weakest level going back to may when we were under 60 at 59 looking at current conditions, 68.3 that is very strong. our last mid month look was 65.7, 68.3, actually, you have to go back to, that's still the weakest number going back to june june of this year. expectations, what lies ahead, a more subtle revision from 66.8 to 66.9, the lightest since may. the operative word here is still the lightest but here's the money numbers now. one year inflation which popped up from 4.2 to 4.4 pops up another ten. 4.5% and remains the highest

respondent level for one year inflation outlook since april when it was 4.7 and it really is a big u-turn considering we're at 3.9 in september. now if we look at the 5 to 10 year, also a bit hotter than expected, but equal to our mid month, which was 3.2, remains at 3.2. we've had a lot 3.2s carl, to find a higher number you have to go back to may and june when it was 3.4, and obviously those numbers are driving interest rates. we just crossed over 440, you have twos, threes, fives, sevens and tens with higher prices than yesterday. looks like the low yields for the session might be in. sara back to you have a happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving, rick. spoke too soon on the yields

below 4.4 on the ten year. thank you very much. don't want to see the inflation expectations rising in an environment where inflation is supposed to be falling and the federal reserve is on pause. the dollar is strengthening on the back of the numbers that rick just reported as well the ten year popping back above 4.4. it adds to data worth mentioning today. early app on the jobless claim, tomorrow the market is closed for thanksgiving holiday jobless claims were interesting. last week they went to a three month high they came back down this week to 209. which shows that these elevated rate of jobless claims that we're looking for, more stress and layoffs in the job market hasn't been able to hold continuing claims, which are people who are continuing to collect unemployment claims that is elevated highest level since december of 2021 we watch the jobless claims to see what's out there

it was an important one because it's a survey week from november payrolls it comes in better than expected the market is cheering the worse than expected numbers. we'll see if the market can hold up here on the fact that jobless claims come in better, inflation expectation within that report come in betterer we're not talking about any major trend change necessarily but we are trying to grasp for where inflation in the economy is going. >> it's interesting, the other day j.p. morgan had a report doubted the surge in continuing claims they think a lot of these after seasonal adjustments looks like more of a construction to earlier distortions than a genuine deterioration in the labor market but that's a source of debate here for a while. >> absolutely. we got the minutes yesterday from the fed, the notes from the last meeting one quote i picked apart from you, the fact is the committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all i think it's funny because the

market is thinking very much about rate cuts right now and starting to price in higher odds they happen as soon as may there even is a slight chance they happen in march but that's why the economic data is so important to crunch because the more it weakens the more the market might rally off rate cuts coming sooner. so go the other way maybe the fed is right remember we're not even thinking about thinking about people are not thinking about that on the rate cut they have to insist hard they're not thinking about it. >> today's action does seem to be a response to the fallen rates, although that's already moderated and the fallen oil prices as well which if that keeps up could also have a significant impact. >> certainly on headline inflation. it's helpful helpful for consumer spending as well we're already looking at low gas prices compared to where we were this time last year on thanksgiving that's good. even mortgage apps did you say

rose some instant relief on mortgage rates. we see the 10 year yield come down off 5% and the 30 year goes below 7% and mortgage applications go up you can see that sort of instant transmission mechanism there from the rate story. again, they're depressed but there was a little bit of a tick up and the biggest gain i think since early june. >> six week high and 30 year fixed, falls 70 basis points to 741. 30 basis points, that's the biggest four week slide of the year so the take is that it's going to rejuvenate housing at least on the margin. >> which is not necessarily what we need for a fed trying to get housing prices and rent prices down and they remain sticky and elevated because of the low supply again, something to watch for the fed, but as far as the k commentary, mostly cautious. nordstrom i picked out, we see a cautious consumer and it remains to be seen how chiengss in

inflation, higher interest rates and repayment of student loan payments can affect spending during the holiday season. and urban outfitters, our brands did see a slight change in demand, the ceo says slight. november-to-date business is in line with october results and customers are willing to pay full price for what they want. no slow down there so it's prioritization it's -- why are you laughing >> nothing i'm just laughing because there was silence there. we're going to move on speaking of silence. what's up with investors and their response to nvidia's blowout numbers. the stock is down about 4.5% or 4%. unclear what the company could have done to actually please investors given what was an incredible earnings report let's get to kristina partsinevelos to get highlights of that and the call as well

any idea why there would be this kind of response >> yeah. i'll tell you why. to your point, incredible beat, over $2 billion more than revenue estimates. and they did provide an optimistic outlook on the call you mentioned the stock down this is the third straight massive huge beat for nvidia, the stock soared 24% after the may report but flat after the pretty big beat in august and negative today so are we seeing the post earnings fatigue? to your question, david, there were a few drivers to the negative reaction. management admitting exports to china would impact revenues in q4 also limiting their $20 billion guidance they provided. the cfo said on the call they don't have good visibility into the magnitude of that impact even over the long term. china keep in mind is 20 to 25% of data center revenues, equating to 3 to $4 billion in potentially lost revenue and has the bears worried.

how could nvidia keep up this beat and raises without china in the future? speaking with the bear thesis. analysts expressed concern about demand once the gpu backlog subsides or gets worked down. concerns about data center sustainability remain pressing when it's approaching 30% of cloud spend for firms but asked on the call, jensenhuang saying he wouldn't have it. the new gpu will launch in late fiscal 2024, leading to a gpu replacement cycle with revenue run rate of $1 billion and management noting on the call they did have increased purchase commitments so it's a sight into the future. that's why you're seeing price hikes from goldman sachs, j.p. morgan, et cetera, well above 600 bucks. >> do you think it's a departure

from the filings that say the export controls are immaterial? >> yes. especially the follow-up from the cfo's comment that they don't know the magnitude of the impact just even over the near term. i think that's the big question mark. yes, they're creating these work around trips we talked about. the work around chips won't be ready for a few months so even that is not going to fill in the gaping hole of potentially 20% of data center revenues, which equates to quite a bit. that's the first negative and why the stock reacted immediately because that was in the cfo commentary. >> shares reflecting everything you said. thank you. our next guest does say nvidia setting up for another quarter or two of similar results. matthew bryson has an outperform target. good to have you. the key line you say we're choosing to use the upside to derisk our forward model and

price target in case a short-term reset does eventually manifest. talk about the odds of that. >> yeah, so it's not something i see happening in the next quarter or two. just came out of a conference and their nvidia customers were talking about 200 day lead time. that puts you well into q2 in terms of nvidia visibility. really the question comes when you get to q3, q4 are the positive trends that nvidia talked about, whether it's products or new ajdjacents that they're moving into, is it enough that nvidia still grows? obviously they're confident of that. i think longer term, a.i. is going to continue to groew. but i think the concern is simply do you get a pause at some point? >> you say pause and you even say even possible decline. that's not something you're forecasting, is it? >> no. i'm not forecasting a decline, i'm not even forecasting a pause. it's more when we've seen the

situations before, companies can't meet demand. you work up your backlog, as that backlog comes down, you're over shipping for a bit. with nvidia the difference is that the a.i. market is a high growth market. so if there is a pause or even revenues backdrop a bit, they should be able to grow at an accelerated rate beyond that. it's not like we're dealing with a mature market like we saw with cisco and networking. >> for how long? how much visibility do you have into these kind of numbers and this kind of growth? >> yeah. so in terms of visibility, again next couple of quarters i think they simply have the demand there, with or without china, beyond that, i think to some extent what the tam is, which will impart time to growth

depends on whether or not they're able to successfully ship to china. and then, beyond that, it's a question of what happens particularly with the large language models. so what we've seen the last few years is a race to build the best large language model in part because there's a belief that's what's going to drive the next wave of innovation in tech. once those language models are built, i mean, you should see applications get built upon those models and those will drive another wave of demand for a.i. silicon, so benefitting nvidia, nvidia certainly talked about that, in terms of inference demand growing. it could be the applications come sooner rather than later and we don't see a pause. it's more a lack of visibility as opposed to invariable tracement that we're looking at right now which is why my numbers keep going up and i'm not predicting a pause at this point. >> as generative a.i. continues

to age and the large language models you talked about as well, is there a scenario they may require over time less computing power? >> i think there's not really a scenario where they require less computing power. potentially with the inference opportunity in particular, there are a number of startups who are trying to come up with better solutions that are less energy intensive, that are better than nvidia. and you have the hyper scalers themselves trying to build out the solutions. so i think there's some debate as to who builds the best inference solution, but all we've seen with training in in particular is the chips have kept on getting bigger, installations getting bigger, i don't think that changes. >> energy usage the key. what about competition, amd, microsoft potentially over time trying to develop its own chip.

even altman was talking about it as well apparently with potential investors. >> it's got to be a longer term concern but just to put kind of things in perspective here. you have nvidia looking at doing roughly 15 billion in data center gp revenue in q4. amd is talking about doing over 2 billion next year. intel talking about doing over a billion next year. those are the two largest third party competitors. so they're doing a fraction -- they're looking to do a fraction in 2024 what nvidia is looking to do in q4 this year. >> matt, thanks, appreciate that. important story. viewers appreciate the guidance and color. thank you. have a good holiday. >> you too, thanks. as we head to break, here's our road map for the rest of the hour. the read on retail. minute by minute numbers when it comes to holiday spending. more on what it means for the retail names. and binance's ceo stepping

down, pleading guilty to fraud charges. we'll talk about the the fallout from that. the airline stocks flying high today in trading ahead of what's expected to be a record in holiday travel. we'll go back to o'hare for more. don't go anywhere.

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kor courtney reagan is here with mr. rosenstein. morning. >> good morning. tomorrow begins retail's most important five day stretch of the year. new numbers from adobe suggest consumers are in the shopping spirit. online retail sales up 5% for the first 20 days of november. toy sales up 76% compared to last month. black friday expected to be the busiest in store shopping day of the year, which is according to sensor maddic. 72% of u.s. consumers will shop in store or online on friday, that's up from 69% last year. most do it for the discounts but tradition is the second most popular reason. but don't expect the rush we've seen on black friday, retailers like walmart and target are already offering the same deals online and many deals well in advance of friday. the retail federation said a record three quarters of

americans will shop in store and online between black friday and exh cyber monday. it's a favorable calendar for reta retal retailers, with the most shopping days between thanksgiving and christmas. it puts important on this week. a big question, what will the store shopping experience be like? we have a lot of items locked up, online orders are being fulfilled. will retailers be staffed and stocked enough to prevent the frustration? we'll see. it's going to be a busy couple of days. back to you. >> tradition of holiday shopping, especially thanksgiving weekend. i feel like judging by my inbox courtney, the deals and discounts are big this year. how do you rate the kind of promotional environment we're in

given the economic head winds and the time is promotional. >> i think the deals are good, they're on par relatively with what we see most holiday times. i don't know if they're substantially than what we've seen in years past. there's an analysis by wallet hub they put the biggest discounts at stores, like macy's and j.c. penney's. the average discount across the board was 35%, theirs was like 37%. electronics and tvs have been called out and also toys adobe already tracking well for toys so far. those are the big" typically the consumers find the best discounts on. >> we mentioned the piece in the journal about the dry powder the american shopper has at least in the view of the herd on the

street column. still half a trillion, the san francisco fed estimates at the end of september. if that's true, why is seasonal hiring not as robust as recent years? >> we've been asking the retailers for many years now, can you really find these thousands of workers that you're looking for, especially with the unemployment rate so low? and i think some of it has to do with all these retail employees are asked to do. it's become a much more complex job in some ways they're having to play security officers for the stores, unloing goods. for a while having to ask shoppers to mask up and follow different directions and stores. having to fulfill online orders from stores. it's become more of a complicated job. so maybe not as attractive as it had been in the past years to some subset of folks looking for the seasonal work. >> thank you. >> thanks. still ahead, sam altman is back at the helm of openai.

the company making that announcement just after 1:00 a.m. eastern. along with an majooverhaul of t board of directors. we'll talk about the ramifications of this saga kila in the last four or five days. don't go anywhere. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin.

we continue to fall the fallout of the openai's decision to fire and then rehire sam altman. there were also big changes to the board of directors that took place. the events of the last five days have highlighted the changes of trying to develop such a technology. sarah burnett joins us now. we have yet to fully understand the division that resulted in the firing of altman but it seems to go back to the different view perhaps of the technology itself by the board and mr. altman towards pushing it forward to maximum profitability versus concerns the old board had about moving

fast and what that could mean. what is your overall sense here? what does it mean for the future of the company with the newly created board and altman back at the help. >> you're right. this is about what it means to develop agi for the benefit of humanity. i don't doubt there was a agreement they wanted to do that. there was a disagreement between the division of the nonprofit board and the direction the rest of the company was going. that played out the last few days. i think it's clear where the -- who -- basically who won that debate. and it's clear those who want to accelerate and have a fission that faster development of a.i. benefits society won that debate. >> right. they won. so we can expect they'll continue to move at a fairly quick pace. do you, as somebody who studies the area and knows the company, do you have any concerns?

do you share perhaps the concerns of the former board members? >> i'm somewhat agnostic on this. i'm taking an outsider view of the situation. what i think i can say is it will be harder to maintain those guardrails that they -- you know, this company, its founding was as a nonprofit, and they really did want to adhere to these kind of very deliberate development of a.i. but i think what we've seen in the last year as the generative a.i., chatgpt has exploded and has the investment has poured in, the company has grown in the last six months from 29 billion to 90 billion. it's going to be even harder to remain at kind of a deliberative pace. it's not just open a.i. it's the competitors now. and there really is this arms race. everyone is chasing the same goal and there will be in this winner take all economy we're

in. i think there will be huge dividends to the company or platform that gets there first. >> i'm looking at your body of work, research and some of the books you published on international relations and war and democracy. and how the -- how those issues collide with technology and i'm wondering how you think washington or the world is watching something like this and what the bigger ramifications are in that sphere? >> it's a great question. what's interesting about this is that as the events have played out over the last few days, it's clear that there was an article that this board member, helen toner, had written at that intersection of national security, international relations and technology, and it appears as though she was very critical of the approach that this company, openai, was taking. and very laudatory towards anthropic, a competitor.

so these issues, this venn diagram in the overlapping middle in interesting ways. i think as the previous guest was talking about, you know, the nvidia guest, that this is at the core, these chips are at the core of a.i., the u.s. has the policy it sees tech at the center of the competition between u.s. and china and openai has been a real leader in this space. i think from a regulatory perspective, this becomes a real challenge because washington is thinking we're concerned about these safety issues but at the same time, they recognize -- i think they recognize that this is a course for good and also these are american companies, they don't want to see these companies in a deceleration mode. >> let's go back to the founding of this company, which involved altman and a guy named elon musk, who was concerned about the overall development of artificial intelligence. and wanted there to be

significant guardrails and to have it be at least responsibly developed. are we past that now? is there any hope that -- you know, what are your thoughts when it comes to that big question as to whether this thing is going to run amock so to speak? >> i don't know what it means to run amuck, i don't know if i think this is a huge safety consideration. the companies are dealing with bias issues, they've thought about them, they're incorporating those solutions. i also think that elon musk, the evidence that the horse is out of the barn and now we're trying to close the barn door is he now has developed the same kind of -- is developing the same kind of generative a.i. platform. this is really an arms race and no one wants to be on the sidelines. >> yep, that would seem to be the case. sara thanks for joining us from cornell tech. >> yes. as we head to break, bitcoin is under pressure after the

binance bombshell, the largest crypto exchange, binance along with the outgoing ceo agreeing to billions of dollars of fines and pleading guilty to sanctions violations and money laundering charges. bitcoin still in the green for the month and up 20% year-to-date. we'll have more on crypto later this hour, especially binance. stay with us. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade,

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welcome back everybody. i'm contessa brewer. israel released a list of 300 palestinian prisoners it's considering for release as part of the cease-fire agreement with hamas. israelis can now file objections to any of those names for the justice ministry's review. the deal includes a four day pause in fighting in many exchange for hamas releasing 50

israeli hostages. and then israel in turn would exchange 150 penialestinian wom and children in israeli prisons. the agreement extends 24 hours every time another 10 israeli hostages are released. alaska state troopers say a landslide killed three people when it came down wednesday night. troopers say a storm that brought wind and heavy rain trigger the slide. and the biden administration wants to make it easier for americans to cut the cord. a new fcc rule would ban early termination fees for cable and satellite contracts. it's for an effort to get rid of so-called junk fees across industries. we were looking at the pressure on airlines to go back and scrutinize their fees as well. we'll see what the result is

here. >> thank you, contessa brewer. checking in on the markets. lost some opening gains after data that caused a little bit of jump in yields. the ten year got down to 4369 this morning. for more let's get to dom chew on what's moving. >> we have interesting moves because the moves we are seeing are starting to gain momentum, in fact, if you look at a sector perspective, kind of feel about this whole s&p 500 at 4559. we have seen a move higher now as we've gained some momentum sector wise. every sector right now is in po positive territory except the energy sector, down 1% overall and a lot of that is on the back of falling crude oil prices this as opec has delayed the next meeting to go over possible production capacity type of cuts and conversations about that. wti crude is down 4.5%, $74.17

nearing the lowest levels we've seen. keep an eye on prices. as a result some of the laggards in the s&p 500 are exploration and production companies, names like apa corp., down 2.5%. marathon oil down 1.5ing%. eog down 2%. and halliburton and slb down about 2%. right now energy the only down sector in the s&p. back to you. our next guest is optimistic on small caps and sees six sectors advancing double digits. sam stoval has a year end s&p target of 4725. sam, why small caps? they haven't participated. is that why? why are they poised to do so now? >> good morning, sara. small cap stocks have been

underperformers traditionally in the first year of a bull market they outpaced large cap by 2 to 1. but this time around the russell 2000 was higher by just about % i think that's because of the hawkish rhetoric as well as leanings by the fed and now that the fed has likely ended the rate tightening program and we think the fed will be starting to cut rates in the third quarter of next year that that has allowed investors to start to nibble at these small caps once again. >> rates are still high, even if they are -- even if they peaked, are starting to come down. doesn't that hurt the earnings power of some of these companies? >> well, we have been seeing earningse estimates come down a little bit for 2024. expectations were for about a 12% gain in the s&p 500, now it's about 10.7 according to s&p

capital iq consensus estimates. but still looking at an 18% rise for small cap stocks. so while there has been a decline in small cap estimates, certainly still leading the large caps, and also we're dealing with an extremely large discounted relative pe for small cap issues. right now they're trading at a 37% discount to the relative pe average over the last 20 plus years. so our feeling is that there's an awful lot of upside potential we have been seeing a broadening of participation in the sub industries within the s&p 1500 and i think that's encouraging. >> sam, you've written nicely in the last couple of months about so-called bogus bottoms in bear markets and the way the s&p recovered the lows, a percentage rarely if ever does t it not

result in gains. that has that debate been resolved at these higher levels? >> not necessarily. thank you for reading my reports, carl. what we found through july of this year, 87% of the bear market that we experienced in 2022 had been recovered and every other bull market since 1949 recovered 100%. if your definition of a bull market was that we're not in a bull market until we recovered everything from the prior bear, we would not have seen a bull market in the entire 1930s, 1940s and half of the 1950s. so we look at a 20% advance that has retained this above level reading for at least 12 months and that's exactly where we are now. but because of the fact that the fed has been on a tightening policy during this bull market run, which it had not in other bulls except the 1988, that i think has put a lid on the

exuberance that investors could exhibit. >> what about the presidential cycle? the i know you've been looking a lot at that as we go into an election year and what that might mean for certain parts of the market. what have you found? >> absolutely. very, very encouraging. since 1945 when you look at the pre-election fourth quarter for first term presidents, which is where we are today. the s&p posted an average total return of close to 6% and never declined, that was the most important part of that issue. for the full election year, s&p gain was close to 15.5%. also never declining. so first year administrations, whether the president gets re-elected or not tend to be positive for stocks, that has been echoed by the s&p mid cap 400 since 1995 and an 86% frequency of advance for the russell 2,000 since 1980 with the only slip up occurring in

1984. not a guarantee but an encouraging statistic. >> one thing is that inflation stays stickier for longer, higher than the market expects. we're seeing the tick up further in the university of michigan index. job market still appears to be strong. do you worry about these factors getting in the way? >> i do consider them, certainly. but i like to say when life gets me lemons i make whiskey sours. so yes, i acknowledge there are a lot of issues that investors can worry about. probably the big one i would worry about is how long the fed will keep rates higher. normally they have started to cut rates nine months after the last rate hike. this could end up being more like 12 months or so. but i would tend to say it's the

first cut in the third quarter of 2024 not the second quarter as wall street is currently anticipating. >> i love a whiskey sour, sam, thank you. still to come, thanksgiving holiday travel expected to break pre-pandemic records. more on what that means for the airlines whose stocks are rallying today. stay with us. experience the art of high pressure brewed coffee and espresso with the l'or barista system. enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. now brewing peet's coffee.

another big story that is rocking the crypto world. binance founder is stepping down as he will plead guilty to federal charges. and binance users have pulled over $1 billion from the exchange since his departure was announced. we have all the fallout, which i i guess is still going on. >> reporter: it is, david.

this was something we've never seen before, merrick garland and janet yellen appearing side by side to announce criminal charges and a plea deal with binance and the ceo. garland underscored in in the past month the justice department has now prosecuted the two ceos of the world's largest crypto kucurrency exchanges in two cases, first it was ftx and now binance. >> the message here should be clear. using new technology to break the law does not make you a disrupter. it makes you a criminal. >> now zao and others are charged with violating the bank secrecy act failing to implement an anti-money laundering programming and violating u.s. economic sanctions. the conduct allegedly facilitated by binance was b

breathtaking. they did not renounce the u.s. business instead working with large u.s. customers to hide their locations. and the government said the crypto exchange said it developed a process to notify vip users if the they became the subject of a law enforcement inquiry. binance allegedly had financing for terrorist groups like al qaeda, hamas and isis. and failed to report transactions for narcotics, fraudulent good and other contra w band. the ceo said he issued a statement saying he made mistakes and must take personal responsible for that. the question is, how much jail time might he do? the suspicion is maybe an 18-month sentence might be in the offing we'll see what

prosecutors do. back to you. >> a big part of the discussion on squawk was the disparity between the sbf penalty and this one for cz. i guess the question is what a difference it makes when you cooperate? >> cutting a deal makes all the difference in the world and the underlying allegations make the difference. sam bankman-fried is accused of stealing investor funds and using them on other expe expenditures. in this case cz is accused of avoiding u.s. regulatory infrastructure. didn't crimes here and different sentences and legal proceedings as a result. but the big difference is cutting a deal versus not cutting a deal. >> seems to be a lot of criminality here too. arthur anderson may not have done as much and it got put out of business by the u.s. government. not these guys? >> right. the question is what does the

u.s. government get with the deal? if you look at it, the main thing that strikes me is binance will continue to exist. the market will decide that ultimately but the u.s. government is saying we're not going to shut the entity down, it will exist. cz will be an u.s. government g here is some stability in the crypto regime globally and visibility into it. as a result of this deal, the historical czars, the suspicious activity reports that go to the federal government in traditional financial institutions will all now go to the u.s. federal government going back years, so the you sats is going to get visibility into a number of illegal financial transactions, terrorist financial transactions, and all the things you can imagine law enforcement and u.s. intelligence will want. that's a huge thing. and the united states gets to bring the crypto ecosystem into the u.s. law enforcement sort of universe. so all of that is good for the u.s. government. you can see why they might have

wanted to make this deal here even if cz doesn't end up with a long prison sentence. >> eamon javers, quite a story, one of several this week. thank you, eamon javers. still to come, the ceo of a software company auto desk as those shares fall and a number of cuts this morning. we'll break down the numbers. nus.t n kicks off in aboute mite

welcome back to "squawk on the street." today and sunday the two busiest days of the year for airlines with millions expected to fly. that said, are airlines and airports ready? our phil lebeau live from chicago today with those details as the stocks rise to the top of the market today, phil. >> reporter: a nice little pop for the airline stocks today. i don't think it's because of how smooth things are going today, but the airlines will certainly take it. it is quiet here at o'hare. let me take you down to atlanta. hartsfield jackson airport. you can see it is quiet down there as well. a total of 30 million people will fly for this entire thanksgiving 12-day period. that is a record according to the tsa. they do say you should expect long lines if you haven't made your trip, even in the precheck, you will see long lines.

the faa is opening additional airspace not only over the continental u.s. where appropriate but over the ocean on the east coast to help out with the heavy traffic loads going down to florida. how many flights will there be today? more than 49,000 flights today. how many delays have we seen so far? just over 500. you do the math. 1%. that shows you how smooth it is today. and for the airline stocks, it also helps that this comes at a time when they're seeing lower jet fuel prices, so they're getting a bit of a bounce today. really, it's been a nice move over the last month for the airline stocks after a brutal summer all the way leading up to beginning of october that's really where you saw the sell-off in airline stocks because of higher costs. you have the new pilot contracts for most of the major airlines, and you have tighter margins. those combined are the reason the airline stocks were under pressure earlier this year. but take a look at the arca

index. relative to earlier this summer not that great. for the airlines, they will take this, guys. they need the strong demand, and they need a quiet holiday season, a busy one, but a quiet one. >> yeah. hey, phil, this brings me back to the many conversations we had during the pandemic, of course, given we have now exceeded 2019 in terms of daily passengers. where are we on business travel, though? a question we constantly entertain, does that come back? >> reporter: it's probably back -- no, not completely back. i would say, when you talk to the airlines, it's changed because people have different travel habits because of work at home and maybe they're going to do remote work on the road. mostly corporate travel is back 80%, 85%, david. and it continues to edge higher but is not all the way back. >> interesting. wondering what the catalyst will be given increased costs. today beneficial with the

decline in crude prices. phil, thank you, as always. phil lebeau. >> reporter: you bet. >> manning his post at o'hare, as he does every holiday season. as for the broader markets, we're giving up a little bit of the gains we had seen just previously but still in the green on the s&p and the nasdaq as well as the dow. do, reith bond yields wnmo ahead. experience the art of high pressure brewed coffee and espresso with the l'or barista system. enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. now brewing peet's coffee.

welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. ahead, tomorrow begins retail's busiest five-day stretch of the year, what names will consumers be flocking to and which stocks could benefit the most? we'll discuss. plus, the ceo of autodesk is with us. strong earnings for the company but the stock is lower. back to the future, sam altman returns to openai after a wild few days. what does that mean for microsoft? and are there implications for the ai industry overall? take a look at the markets, the stocks are hanging in there positive on the day and on the week. even after we saw a possible on the back of th