burlington. i like what jimmy said to all the viewers, health and happiness to you and your families and happy thanksgiving. >> thank you for letting me join you. that will do it for us. enjoy the holiday. "the exchange" starts right now. welcome to "the exchange" on this thanksgiving eve. i'm kelly evans. shoppers, start your engines. people across the country are gearing up for one of the busiest shopping days of the year, as consumer sentiment showed signs of life. could spending surprise us to the upside? and speaking of spending, prices for some goods and services falling from their peaks, but many are still way above prepandemic levels. where the drops are and aren't, and what that signals about which stocks to buy. and with kraft starting to show

in the luxury consumer, could they benefit for the diamonds campaign? let's start with dom chu. i think you went the traditional route. >> i did, but sit a gem of a market, if you will. the markets seem to be posting gains here, even with some concerns building about certain aspects of possibly consumer spending, maybe slowing down this particular quarter. if you look at the dow industrials, up 171 points, 35,2956789 s&p up roughly 19 points. to give you an idea of if highs, we were up roughly 30 points. so by the way, this puts us within 1% of the 52-week high for the s&p and 5% away from record highs in the s&p. so we'll keep an eye on that. the nasdaq, similar percentage,

14,281, the last trade there. one place in particular getting attention is the rate side of things. one point, the benchmark ten-year treasury yield was 4.365%, right now we're tilting towards the highs of the session, 4.43%. still, this near-to-medium term down trend since the cycle 5.02% highs, that's something we're watching about whether or not there is still momentum buying interest in treasury bonds on the ten-year side of things. and then the stock of the day right now, a lot of the nasdaq game has been nvidia or to the extent that nvidia was a gainer at one point today. it's down about 2.5%. that's off the session lows, even despite a better than expected quarterly earnings report, profit margins, but some concerns about whether the china business could be more impacted because of ex-port restrictions. semi conductors overall have

been under pressurer ernear ter but smh has been on a tear of late. so we'll keep an eye on nvidia shares to see if there is some stability. i'll send it back to you with a heard felt happy thanksgiving. >> are you hosting, dom? >> we are not hosting. i'm going to the inlaws. i just had to bring a pecan pie. >> it was the most expensive one. >> i got it from costco and it was massive. >> enjoy it very much, dom. thank you very much. we have some conflicting data points on the consumer. on the positive side, jobless claims were better than expected today. but it comes after a slew of retailers have expressed caution about the fourth quarter. so what's the real story here? a slowing consumer or company specific problems? joining me now is a senior analyst at wells fargo, and

steve liesman. welcome to both of you. we're going to duke this out. sit company specific, is it consumer specific? ike, you know the companies better than anyone. what are your thoughts as we move through earnings season? >> hey, kelly, happy thanksgiving, everyone. so at a very high level, inflation peaked, and we're still going up, we're going up less than core cpi. but prizing in apparel has been deflationary for a decade. it was negative three to five years going into the pandemic. so pricing is moderating and will continue. it's pressuring the consumer. spending has been slowing in realtime. i would say october, november, have been real callouts of negativity. for us, i think you want to stick with value. for us, we're pushing burlington and process. we like gap and their turn around strategy. so i think it's very company specific, but over all, pricing

is starting to compress and demand is slowing. >> you say at its bas peak in 2 apparel prizing was up about 7%. so the places where you are seeing the biggest problems are the big brands, even my carters. so would you call those deflationary categories? >> we were in this pocket for 24 months out of the pandemic where margins, pricing, everything was go, go, go to the upside. these companies thought it was the new normal. we realized it was a moment in time, a lot of these brands are starting to adjust pricing down. levis is taking price adjustments, in every category from apparel to handbags. ulta's tricing is down for the prirs time in five years. we just got to an unsustainable level and consumers tell you where those prices need to go

and those prices are trending lower. >> steve, we're seeing areas across the economy like appliances where we are back to normal, so to speak. other areas like soup and cereal, where we are 20% higher than normal, they haven't adjusted at all yet. >> right. and it's a question of both competition and the consumer. kelly, this is the time of the year i have to remind folks about the first rule of economics, which is don't say somebody won't buy until you know the supposed price they're not supposed to buy at. and that's really what's going on in the economy right now. this is the time of year where there's a game of chicken between the retailer and the consumer. remember the old yogi berra phrase, nobody goes there, it's too crowded. it's the same thing, the same oxy moron of saying, nobody is buying because prices are too high. by definition if that's true, prices are going to come down. so i really like that the

consumer will tell us what the price is. if what ike is saying is accurate, which i'm sure it is, that in some places you're get thing mean reversion. you could see or have, i think, a decent christmas season, because people will go out and find the value that they've been missing for a couple years. so what ike is saying to me is telling me, a, we're not supply constrained. that's very important. and the prizes being set more by an actual meeting of supply and demand. i think that's kind of bullish, if you layer into that this idea that the consumer has had the wherewithal in an unexpected way for quite a while now. >> ike, there's still some areas where you see prizing power, though ironically, if you like burlington, they benefit from basically being the value player for good brands. i mean, the shares had an amazing week. so where else do you think there's opportunity? >> look, we upgraded gap about a

month ago. wecalled out the turn around effort led by the new ceo, new leadership at old navy. old navy being a brand that's been mismanaged for a couple of years. we see the building blocks to improvement. they reported their quarter over the last week. so what we think, given this is an early cycle group, valuations and margins have been depressed. you have to find opportunities. burlington was a great example. it's easier to save now that it's up $50. some of these businesses are good businesses that are left for dead. you have to find some of those stories, and i still think that gap and burlington still have legs to them and still work. >> steve, a parting word -- i guess thanksgiving meal costs 4.5% less than a year it did ago, but 25% more than it did in 2019. >> yeah. it's still higher.

and some costs are coming down and some costs are adjusting. it's still a time of post pandemic price adjustment. there was some talk about what happened with the egg market, maybe some price fixing apparently going on there. i am interested, though, kelly, if there is just another second here. just to be clear that when there is this game going on between what the right prize is to bring people in, there's also a profit thing going on. i was just going to ask ike, who is going to have the profit pressure out there? there are those who have had extraordinary profits this year and i want to know maybe some advice for investors out there what to watch for when it comes to that profit margin pressure that can come with lower pricing. >> yeah. steve, that's a really good question. what's really interesting right now given this deflation, one of the biggest input costs on

apparel is cotton the costs have been plummeting. so there is a really low cost coming through next year. which brands are going to have to push the cost benefit back to the consumer saying we've got to give this back to you, so we're not going to get any margin lift out of this. so there's an opportunity for margins, but who is going to have to price it back and who will keep it? because the brands and concept are in a great place, that will be an interesting thing to watch next year. >> thank you both. appreciate your time today. let's get food specific now, shall we? talks of staples, the packaged good names in particular have gotten hammered. smuckers down 28%. kell nova down 20%.

but the pieces are in place for stable silization next year. great to have you here, peter. this is the most exciting category of the moment. where do you see things getting worse? i mentioned soup and cereals, and we haven't seen deflation in those categories. >> i don't think you'll see outright deflation. you're still seeing some disinflation, and that's what we talked about in the note from last week. i do think what we're seeing out of the package food companies is a ramp in promotions, so you'll see more merchandising activity, maybe a couple of deals here and there. but we are not expecting outright dedeflation. >> they're not supposed to experience it, they're supposed to be steady eddie price gainers. but you saw a consumer who seems to be pushing back. any other form that pushback can

occur? >> at this point, what we are seeing there are a couple of deflationary categories. some of our work suggested that the terms on a shopping cart are down 20% in the center of the stores, people are pushing out to the perimeter. the meat case, steve was talking about egg prices that are now down off of their massive highs. we're seeing that consumer move the basket towards the perimeter of the store. i think that's why you're seeing some of the volume challenges. >> so you can count the shopping carts? does somebody go in the stores to count these? >> there are data sources that track this stuff. >> next thing shopping cartes will have a chip attached to them. what are some categories that are better positioned to weather

this storm? >> i think for kraft heinz in particular, what we are seeing is that kraft took a more conservative approach to recovery in some of these trends we have been talking about. they have been more open with investors about the impact frsz lower snap benefits, so they positioned themselves in a place where if the recovery haps across the group, they were the most forthright about it relative to their peers. going into the holiday season, it will be important for a company like kraft and mccormick, who do a lot of their seasonal offerings in the fourth qua quarter, if they are merchandising more, you'll see deals go into place. as we get into the december holidays, as well. >> i think this is all so fun to keep in mind. ly be doing some last-minute shopping. another analyst was suggesting

they could benefit from the changes that we're seeing because they have more of a protein mix, even things like hot dogs. >> so we have done a lot of work on this thesis. you know, it's evolving. there's going to be a lot of discussions about this tomorrow around the dinner table. hopefully everybody goes out for the turkey trot before hand. so i do think that -- look, there's different ways people are trying to express that view at this point. i think this has evolved a little bit more and some of the studies have come out. people have looked for tunnels whether that is in protein or less carb rich environments but it's too early tell. we're talking about less than 1% of the population, maybe 10% by the end of the decade, but that could be a stretch. >> so secure use, we talked

about how smucker shares are down 28% this year. are the companies pricing in this potential for deflation, should we thinkable the slowdown as already something that the shares are taking into account? >> that's a really good question. the last time we saw this kind of valuation level for much of the package food companies, it kicked off a big m&a cycle. you've seen campbells go out and try to acquire another company. what we think is that if some of these multiples hang out where they are currently, a lot of these companies are trading at subnine times. does that spur kind of an m&a cycle we haven't seen in ten years? >> christmas for the bankers out there if so. they were go -- campbell's was going to buy sovos. >> still in process. at this point, they have received a second request from the ftc. but as it stands now, the

expectation is for the deal to close. >> i think about it every day, do i need to stockpile. peter, thank you for joining us. >> happy thanksgiving. coming up, sam altman is back a ceo of openai, while several board members who ousted him are out. what's next and what are the lingering issues that need to be addressed? first, my next guest says we're in the midst of a leadership change in the market and time to position for that. we'll look at some of his boldest calls for next year and where he sees the most opportunity. let's get a glance at the markets with the dow up 183 points and the nasdaq, s&p up about half a percent. the ten-year yield is still around 4.43%. back after this. together, we built something truly beautiful.

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welcome back to "the exchange." stocks may be rallying on hopes that inflation is declining and the fed's done. but will investor optimism carey over into 2024? my next guest thinks stocks will move higher but there will be changes in leadership. joining me now is david katz. good to see you. remind me, you know, it's hectic around here. how did the second half play out for you, as expected or not as

expected? >> pretty much a lot of things that we thought would play out have played out and the market has been volatile. oil prices went up, then came down. inflation is coming in much lower, and the fed is likely done, although they're not going to admit they're done for some time. >> if it's played out as expected, what does that -- what would you analysis or description be of what's happening with the market kind of as we close out the year? >> well, we think the market has done relatively well, although it's been a massive divergence. if you look at the nasdaq, up 40%, 50%, growth is up 30%. s&p is up 20%. the s&p equally weighted is up 4%. value strategies are up 1 or 2%. so there's this huge divergence. we think investors should position themselves to take advantage of that.

we are expecting a change in leadership. you had a massive change in leadership this year. t the things we did great, we're expecting that to happen again with the laggards being the leaders and the leaders slowing down. >> talking about health care in particular, that's been a real disapointment for a lot of people. the russell 1,000 growth up 36%. so lay it out, what do you think your boldst calls are for 2024? >> we think that dividend stocks, which have been miserable this year, are going to be a very good place to be. value strategy will be a very good place to be. we think small and mid-cap stocks, which have done particularly poorly, also on top of doing badly this year, are going to be a much better place to be. we think that mega cap growth can do okay, but we're definitely not starting a repeat and now is not the time to pile into those xaens. we owned a lot of them, but we're not putting new money in

and we're much less excited. >> some of the ones you like, american electric power, texas instruments. so they kind of run the gamete. what would you say the names you're not interested in buying here? >> well, if you're looking at some of these growth stocks that are selling at 50, 60 times earnings, we would be wary about putting money into them. we don't think you'll be chaszing the hottest stocks. texas instruments has done poorly, so we think they're going to be the next place that kachs up. within tech, we would be looking at some of the laggards like a cisco, which has had a very disappointing quarter. beyond that, we couldn't chase some of the winners. we own apple, meta, google, microsoft. we still like them, just a lot less enthusiastic about them. >> david, thank you for joining us today. >> thanks a lot. have a great day. and happy thanksgiving. >> you, too. still to come, the founder

of crypto exchange binance pleading guilty. opec plus, surprising the market by postponing its meeting. could this signal infighting over cuts? crude with a fifth straight week of losses. down 14% in that time. "thexcng iba aer ehae"s ckft this.

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update. the israeli spri sproert reject petition requesting to stop the so-called hostage deal. the law in israel lets families victimized by prisoners a 24-hour window to petition against a release deal. last night, israel reached a deal with hamas to release 150 palestinians held by israel in exchange for the return of 50 israeli hostages. the u.s. stopped a plan to kill a sikh separate leader on u.s. soil. u.s. authorities raised concerns that the indian government may have known about the plot and the fbi is investigating the matter. a similar incident happened in canada when a sikh activist was assassinated in september, putting india/canada relations

into a chill. a former model accused axle rose of sexually assaulting her in 1989. she said she met him at a nightclub in new york, and he allegedly assaulted herr later in his hotel room. this comes just hours after the new york adult survivor's act expires. this allows victims to file lawsuits after the statute os u with sam altman returning. we'll have the latest and a look at the pcompetitive land scape. "the exchange" is back after this. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin.

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welcome back to "the exchange." not even a week since openai's board ousted sam altman, he's returning as ceo, and many of them are ousted. openai poesting they reached an agreement for altman to return and are adding two new faces to the board. sam altman wrote, he's looking forward to returning and building a partnership with microsoft. shares of microsoft are up more than 1% today, but does this drama leave openai vulnerable for other companies to strike? let's ask my next guest. alex, welcome. this was -- let's remember, this was a broken board situation and broken leadership you could call

it, but not a broken product. is it broken now? >> the product still works just as well, but it's opened up the door for come pepetitors for op to go to the customers and say simply, you bet your entire company's ai strategy on working with this one company. and was that really a great idea? it could evaporate in a minute. why didn't you build your products in a way to substitute us in for openai, and we'll explain why our alternative is a compelling alternative. so this will open up the flood gates to competition, even things are back to "normal" today. >> don't you think microsoft shares would be lower if we thought we would lose a step competitively? >> shares shouldn't be riding high on this moment.

this is one of the crown jewels of microsoft's strategy, they're all about ai. openai was the force behind that. and so for anyone saying that this is a huge victory and they're not going to lose a step, i think that is misguided. i think this will be a competitive challenge for microsoft. >> let's talk about kind of what that looks like longer term. let's say i made a corporate client and you have to remind me how this works, you pay maybe for the pro version of chatgbt or something like that. what are my true other options if i wanted a very similar replacement product, if i wanted to quickly transfer my workload from today to my workload tomorrow on a different platform? >> exactly. so chatgbt has always been the demo, the thing that openai put out into the public to show what its technology is capable of. what companies have done now is being build on top of the underlying technology that's underneath chatgbt. this model called gbt-4.

microsoft said they went one quarter from 11,000 people using its openai service to 18,000 enterprise customers. so what these companies are doing is use thing ai technology to build functionality inside their companies, their own document search and retrieval products. and so basically what happens now is you start toe value wait, you say should i have bet so much on openai using that t tech technology? can i create a situation where i can use maybe an anthropic, or some other company like inflection ai, founded by the google brain, who said they have a new language model out on the market. all this technology was build on top of a discovery that google made. a lot of the underlying models are in public, and so we were already going to see a more intense competitive environment.

>> final question, and maybe the most important one is, there was no mention that i saw of openai's corporate structure changing. it probably doesn't make sense to leave it as a 501 c 3. can they change that to a structure with few da dish -- fiduciary responsibilities. microsoft is still not a board member, are they? >> it was astonishing to me to see that at the end of all this, microsoft left the room without a board seat. from my understanding, the board members that are there right now are tasked effectively with filling out this board to about nine members, or up to nine members. so maybe microsoft makes its way with one or two seats at a certain point, giving them enough control where maybe it won't matter if it's a for profit or 501 c 3. i think it will continue under this nonprofit structure. it's just going to have much

more corporate control for microsoft and others. >> alex, stay with us, as we move to a different story, the one at binance specifically. binance coin is down 3% today as users pulled more than a billion dollars from that exchange. ceo zhao just pled guilty, and catching him is not the only victory the u.s. government scores in this case. let's go to eomon for the details. >> that's right. it was something we've never seen before. the attorney general merrick garland and the secretary appearing side by side yesterday to announce criminal charges and a plea deal with binance and the ceo. garland underscored the justice department has now prosecuted the ceos of two of the world's largest cryptocurrency changing. first, sam bankman-freed, and now changpeng zhao of binance.

>> the message here should be clear -- using new technology to break the law does not make you a disrupter, it makes you a criminal. >> zhao and others are charged with violating the bank's secrecy act by implementing an anti-money laundering program and violating economic sanctions. the array of illegal conduct was breathtaking. the u.s. government said that binance did not renounce its u.s. business as it clamd and worked with charge u.s. customers to hide their locations in the united states. and the government sid the crypto exchange even developed a process to notify vip users if they were the subject of a law enforcement inquiry. what's more, binance allegedly facilitated terrorist financing for the likes of al qaeda, isis and hamas and served as one of the biggest receivers of ransom ware payments, failed to report

transactions for that are kotdices, fraudulent koods and other contraband. zhao issued a statement saying he will take responsibility and posted a $175 million personal recognizance bond. the question is the sentence could be around 18 months, but it's anybody's guess what prosecutors will go for here. and then there is the big question around all of this, which is how much information is the united states now going to get on all these historic transactions on binance? there will be a treasure troveu binance. >> alex, remind me if you're a crypto skeptic guy, but what is the bigger implications for this? >> i look at crypto prague maddicly. but i'm not a fan of all the fraud and the scamming we have seen recently. i think it says a lot about the industry that you get away with

like funding -- helping fund al qaeda and other terrorism and you're looked at someone who got away easy after what we just saw with sam bankman-freed. so it's an interesting commentary, but that said, this could be a move where we start to see some of the clearing out. maybe that opens the way for more legitimate crypto uses to move forward. >> what about the bulls who say this is all good, because to alex's point, you get past all of these problems and now you pave the way for i don't know, a more lasting and viable ecosystem. >> look, that's clearly the message that you saw from zhao and the new ceo at binance who took office yesterday. you cauterize the wound and move for ward. the question is what does the market want? does the market feel comfortable with that kind of history at binance or look for other

alternatives? look, kelly, if you look at the geopolitical situation here, since world war ii, the united states has had incredible influence and visibility into the global financial system. i think this move by the u.s. government yesterday brings a large piece of the crypto ecosystem into that universe of influence and visibility. the united states is going to have a lot of influence over binance. we'll have monitors inside the company monitoring activity and access to the historical data here. i think the united states is pulling a bit of a power play here, saying crypto is going to be allowed to exist, but we'll have transparency into what's happening there, similar to the global financial system for about 70 years. >> from that point of year, more than solidify one of the core tenants of its existence. thank you both. coming up, this weekend's

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welcome back. some big declines in crude earlier, although we're off the lows, after opec moved their meeting scheduled for this sunday. they moved it to next week. and in a day already full of intrigue, let's bring in brian sullivan with more on what this move is all about. >> i'm still trying to figure that out. oil is honestly making its way back. it initially collapsed. >> it was a big move, yeah. >> the big move was moving the meeting. it's now thursday and will be virtual, not in person. that's the first day of the cop-28 climate summit. we shall see. you have thanksgiving dinner, everybody. many of you are going to have a family squabble at the table, probably over politics or something. let's call this the opec family squabble. what i'm hearing inside and outside opec and member nations is that there is a debate and a

discussion about where they would go with the quotos for next year. so insert map here. there are nine opec plus na nations, including russia, to agreed to quotas back in year. those quotas will be changed next year. so this is a very difficult process. basically saying to nigeria, angola, russia, we would like you to produce this much oil and not any more. nigeria, angola and congo want to produce more. which means to keep production flat, saudi arabia, again, would have to take the lion's share of the burden on the cuts, just under 9 million barrels a day now. you wonder how much they're willing to do on their own. so delaying of the meeting, potentially a little bit of a family squabble. >> sounds like these family squabbles are good for american

consumers, right? because they suggest that they can't keep output cuts and support the price. >> there's a lot of things going on. america is part of the story. we are producing, depending on the week and the day, bla, bla, we're at record highs of production. call it 13 million of u.s. production. ex-porting about 4.2 million barrels of oil a day. brazil has quickly become the interesting story, with increased output. they're not opec. brazil, theiro output is up. che and iran, which is part of opec, has more barrels on the market, though we'll see what happens. if the sanctions get actually enacted versus just in word only. so there is a lot of supply? the market. demand has been flat. china has been flat, leading opec to some tough decisions.

>> quick last word, will there be further fallout from the energy complex if prices stay at these levels or is it okay? >> i don't know. but if, if we have a little bit of a -- if opec can't come to a reasonable conclusion on these quotas, could there be maybe kind of every country for itself? i don't think. so but if that happened, $50 oil. >> sounds good. >> fill up. happy thanksgiving. >> you too. i wore my opec tie. >> they don't wear ties. >> wednesday before thanksgiving. from no ties to fake diamonds, are diamonds still a girl's best friend? despite slowing prices, pandora is making a big bet they are, and on one type of dmos iandin particular. we'll talk to the ceo, next.

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after phasing out natural stones in1. joining me now is the ceo aex -- alexander lacic. welcome to the program. >> hi. >> i confess i didn't know pandora is a danish company. what does the name come from? >> i have to go and ask the founder. i don't actually know. i would have to ask the founder. >> fair enough. what you're basically doing is having the diamonds for the masses message. how much cheaper are they? >> you would typically one carat, let's call it one third of the price typically. >> i saul my colleague used one to propose here. they're beautiful. i had would have no problem wearing one. it sounds like they're -- you're not the only ones who sell them, right? >> no. i think what you're seeing is a bit of a shift in the market.

the mined diamond business is huge, and some consumers are looking at this as well. the value equation is different, but i don't think it's about the stone, but a focus on the way we think about it, we sell a nice piece of jewelry, which contains a design, the way it's set and yes, it also has a diamond inside. >> i first started taking notice when i would see these lines at the mall. it was a pandora. what was sales and foot traffic trends like they days in the wake of the pandemic and after everyone's familiar with pan doro, it's mvp are of a household name. is the u.s. consumer strong? a weak a bit? >> there's an interesting story. remember, after the pandemic, there was quite some stimulus checks that the u.s. government, you know, dished out to people. that unnaturally lifted a whole category, including diamonds,

but all of jewelry went up, and after that, we've seen, this is probably the second year after, whens market is settling back into what i would call a more steady state. this is part of -- this was an infliction of cash, which unnaturally lifted the category or part of the sentiment of the consumer right now, and probably a mix of the two, but when we look at the market growth in the u.s. for the last two years, it's been negative. in that light, we've had a sequentially quite nice ride, and in the last quarter we have grown by about five points in the u.s. the market is quite tough, still. >> what's your strategy when we see signs of walmart pulling back, other pockets where it's okay. what is your price point? and what's the value proposition to customers right now? >> so my average price point is roughly $50 for an item when you

come into a u.s. store. i think what we do is we kind of invest heavy, as a lot of other people does this part of the year, this is the spot in the year for the jewelry industry. but i think fundamentally why pandora continues to grow, is because of the position of the brand. we are very accessible jewelry as a gift for either somebody or for yourself for that matter. that's the strength of our brand. people can access us, even when times are tight. last quarter we reported a plus 11 organic growth number globally. so we're having a good run with the brand at this moment in time. indeed. we're showing your shares up 86% to date. alexander, nice to meet you. thanks for joining us today. we appreciate it. >> thank you. $50 average price point. let's drill down on the other companies that can benefit from these shopping season. dana tellsy is here.

great to see you. >> nice to see you, too. 'tis the season. >> yes. what are your thoughts so far? rocky? >> we have moderation all over the place. the month of september started the weakness, went into october with the unseasonable weather, and now inventory levels are clean, before there are more promotions. the converse of the consumer is tougher to get. you need to be innovative and offer value, the two keep themes. >> so some of the winners, and we talked to eye wiike about th. where do you see opportunities amid all of these different names? >> i think it's deckers with what they're doing, it's ralph lauren, who's continuing to see a higher age price point, up around mid single digits.

i think it's abercrombie & fitch, who is not only sees -- but even holister is showing improvement. >> really? every one around me seems to have closed. >> exactly. women's, men, they shrunk the size, they're more productive. that's the change. and value, i agree with ike. i think tjx, ross stores, burlington, that's where the consumers are going. they're getting the benefit of a tradedown customer. so this is maybe very company specification, but for years, abercrombie had been the winner, then a massive switch where american eagle became the mall teen winner for many, many years going. they had the bralettes, and other innovations going on now the strength is back with abercrombie?

is this just fashion-specific or leadership specific? >> this is a meaningful one, with fran or or wits using the data of who the core customer is, transforming the stores, making outfits instead of just items. it really is catered to now a 25 to 40-year-old customer while holister gets the younger customer. it was transformed, nearly three to four years in the making, to do that, achieving an operating margin which would positivesed to be achieved three years from now. that's impressive. look at the shares, up more than 200%. what would be the key for you between adecent season, versus a disaster of a season, and what happens come january? >> i think we're seeing promotions. you expect promotions. we're not back to 201 levels, but certainly higher than a few years ago where there was little

supply inventory. i want to see traffic. i want to see the cadence of promos. i can't have any snow, no matter what people say. >> no snow? >> i just need it to be cold. like the cold snap now, think of what burlington said yesterday, where 25% of the sales comes from coats. i need colder weather, some traffic, and i need consumers to have a feel-good feeling. >> in the last couple seconds we have, do you care that the luxury consumer seems to be cracking? >> yes, they are cracking. that's what i watch closely, too. interesting. dana, thanks very much. we'll check in with you soon. >> thank you. do you go to the mall now? >> i go to the mall now, on friday, at 6:00 a.m. at macy's. >> right in the middle of it all. brave lady. coming up on "power lunch," we are sticking with the consumer.

speaking of malls and channel checks, we have an analyst who hit the garden state plaza. tyler is getting ready. i'll join him on the other side of this break. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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♪ welcome, everybody, to "power lunch" on thanksgiving eve. we're glad you could join us. coming up, opec delaying its meeting. that's having an impact on born yields and stocks as well. we will discuss the ramifications. it's the busiest shopping week of the year. we've heard some caution on earnings calls. and wool have a check from the mall. and before that, let's getting a check on the market. the do