know, back in 2022 and a lot of concerns about the consumer and how those levers were working. they've risen back up. we'll see if they have further to go. >> and interesting to see just to the conversation we were having, if you see the pull forward in terms of sales activity, with earlier promotions. but that's going to do it for us here today. happy thanksgiving. >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. stocks gaining even more ground heading into thanksgiving. the nasdaq 100 hitting its highest level of the year during the session. the dow and s&p close to doing the same. but will november's gains yield to pain in december, or is it all clear ahead for the markets? plus, on the sidelines. nvidia sitting out today's broad rally, despite strength in the semispace. what it means. and later, crude crumbles. chipotle shares spice up, and deere in a hold.

the headlines behind those moves and a lot more. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. we start off with what's turning into a november to remember. major markets all on pace to log their best month of the year, with the nasdaq up more than 11% so far. the biggest winners to date, tech, communications services, and consumer diskrigs their. stocks all up double digits in november. the moves coming amid a sharp decline in rates. the yield on the ten-year dropping from 4.8% at the start of the month to 4.4%. now, the benchmark seeing its biggest monthly basis point drop since 2018. do the trends continue through year-end or are tides set to turn after the holiday? the holiday meaning gobble gobble day. turkey day, tomorrow. tim? >> well, trend for yields also one of the highest moves higher in yields the month before. but yeah, i mean, lower yields mean lower risk, at least they have for the market. the first place i would start is

just say, vix is now below 13. down 44% in 20 sessions, where equities are down -- excuse me, are up almost 12%. you outlined how great a month it has been. semiconductor space, which has had some extraordinary runs over time, has had its best month ever. and that's crazy when you think about it. what it tells me, as great as this is, we've had an incredible run and there may be some complacency again. i'm not bearish, but i do think you have a case where the market hasn't really widened out. there isn't a lot of bred. there's a lot of concentrated trades that are crowded that a lot of folks into year-end are chasing. i think we can go higher. but i don't love the setup here. it's been such a great run. >> there are mixed signals, too. you highlighted semiconductors. but that move is not being confirmed by commodities, for instance. >> that's right. our view is, we do expect the leadership of the year to kind of lead us into the end of the close of the year, as well.

don't expect pms to take risk outside of what's worked, you know, this late in the year. look, if you look at lower yields, tighter credit spreads, lower oil, that's all equity positive. it has been narrow leadership, but our view is that narrow leadership is for a reason. the stocks that have won this year, the stocks that are jen rating earnings. when you link it back to fundamentals, it becomes a little less scary. our view is, continue to move higher to year end, seasonals are strong. hopefully we get what you expect out of a solid jobs number. and markets and leadership work in year end. >> steve, as i recall, you are still leaning into the mag seven here. >> yeah, you know, about a month ago, i said, you know, if i had my wish list, i would like for lower rates, lower oil, lower dollar, and we got all of that, so, i think that it was about positioning to the downside. it's about positioning to the upside. so, i don't think there's a reason to sell the market, but i do think that things are a

little expanded to the upside right now, so maybe a little bit of a reversion, or maybe a little bit of sideways action into year end, but i don't -- i am not getting bearish just yet. i think this is really the start of something new. >> guy, i believe you are long-term bearish, but shorter term, are you bullish? >> well, i'm bullish on vests. them is wearing -- >> it's wool. >> i wish you could put your hands on it. >> it's like wool. >> it's pretty remarkable. leading economic end kale tomorrows have been drifting lower for the last 18 months. personal savings s rate down. if you listen to the retailers, they all same to paint the same picture, yet the market just levitates. kudos to everybody on the desk but me, but i think they've been constructive into year end. yields moving lower is clearly a factor.

bull yields are moving lower because things are slowing down. so, you know, i don't really know how to game this out. if you had told me yesterday, mel, that nvidia would be trading in the mid 4080s, we're seeing levels from march of '22. it's a remarkable run in the face of some pretty ominous signs. >> you would think, to your point, guy, that the one stock that symbolizes the really big sector that was a huge cat list for the market for the time, when the markets really needed a catalyst this year, with that stock trading lower on the back of an okay earnings report, pretty good earnings report, but not knocking the cover off the ball earnings report, would take the stocks lower overall, especially semis. >> well, look, i think a great earnings report. we all know where the street is, we know the buy side was probably higher than the sell side on this one. we know there's nothing about what they said in terms of demand in their core business,

nothing in terms of margin that's deteriorated. the market's finally caught up. it's figured it out. nvidia down 2.5% today, semis trade well. i think the things that we have to think about going into year-end, first of all, we can all remember, markets probably peaked december 1, 2021. '22 was a terrible year. equal weighed since that point has had a terrible run. but the reason the market had a terrible '22 and '23 for the rest of the stock market besides the rest of the mag seven, because fed policy was still unknown, how aggressive, still somewhat unknown. now, we come out of the third quarter, we've had annualized gdp at 2.9%, i know it's backward looking. jobless claims numbers today, what they tell you, the job market is still not that weak. today's -- i know the labor numbers are backward looking, but until the consumer falls out of bed, the economy is not falling out of bed. and this is an environment, just, again, the sequencing and the timeline for absolute reason

to be cautious about next year, but it's not now. >> and that's your thinking, too, right? as long as the jobs picture looks pretty good, you want to be long the market, but it seems like that turn could happen just like a light switch flipping. >> yeah, 100%. if the u.s. labor market and services spending is solid, you want to run long equity risk. i think nasdaq and nvidia underline positioning. you went into that print at an all-time high. options markets very bullish, and i think it meant even if you -- you beat the consensus number, you hit the buy side number largely, and that kind of created a little friction for the stock. if you transpose that to the overall market, what you have is the market max long nasdaq and s&p, still kind of short russell. i don't think we're -- >> do you like russell? two weeks ago, everyone was saying -- you are finally getting that lift. >> it's not our favorite trade, sort of three to six months out. i don't think it has the credit or interest rate risk you want.

but it is the part of the market that's underowned right now, and you could see a little bit of a chase there, and related to that is bond market. ctas are very, very short bonds. if positioning really gets stressed here into the end of the year, you're going to see small cap catching up and you could see yields actually overshoot to the downside as the folks are forced back in. >> you want to be in that crowded side of the boat in terms of large cap tech going into year end, you're not concerned about that? >> not too much. at the beginning of '24, we have a much different discussion, because i think a lot of what's driven leadership has been the scarcity of earnings. our equity strategists next year have a much more broader base to earnings for the s&p 500, and that allows equal weight maybe to catch up, because you can find earnings in a lot more places. i just don't see pms going out on a limb here in what's really been a hard year. >> guy, when does your bearish view come to fruition, if and when it does? >> i thought it would be, you know, in the spring of this year, and now we're basically,

you know, we're approaching winter. and i'm surprised. the lag effects haven't kicked in more, but you know, again, if you just listen to the commentary, the commentary you hear out of retailers, we'll talk about john deere, i'm sure, but it's across a swath of industries now that are extraordinarily cautious going into next year, but it hasn't manifested itself in the price. carter's talked about this, i agree, a couple things. at a certain point, lower yields is probably going to be detrimental to stocks. i think we are on the precipice of that, and that last gap, and carter talked about it earlier this week, the upside of the s&p was actually filled today, and now there are nothing but gaps on the downside in terms of the s&p chart, which will get filled. i wish i could answer that. i've been wrong, you know, in terms of timing, but it doesn't mean it's not going to happen. >> well, i -- yeah. and it -- it has to happen. i mean, to me, at some point, you know, i feel like part of what '22 was, and part of what

'23 was, really paying for this flood of liquidity and monetary -- >> it has to happen, meaning a recession has to happen, a bigger pull-back has to happen? >> i think ultimately we pulled forward a lot of demand, a lot of consumer spending. consumer, i think, is working through a lot of that buffer. i think the economy -- look, the fed is targeting the labor market. they don't need to come out and say it. they want to see unemployment north of 5%. that's going to have an impact. how big of an impact? boy, it would be extraordinary if this federal reserve, and i'm not saying they can't do it, it's just never happened before, was able to execute whatever landing you want to talk about, from the greatest monetary experiment of all time. well hav we have no idea. a decade ago, we didn't have any idea. so, we had the war economy of covid, without all the pain and suffering, and it really lead to what has been this tremendous run. it's -- it's not over. but i do think we're going to pay the piper, and, yeah, we will get there. >> steve, as part of your

bullishness, do you see the soft landing or does it progression into the next stage of the business cycle, meaning a recession of some sort? or do you think the fed -- no other fed has achieved in the history of the federal reserve, and that is a soft landing coming out of this rate tightening cycle? >> not -- not through any fault of their own, though. so, i think -- they'll never tell you when they're going to become dovish. the first time you hear that they're dovish is when you hear that they cut rates. they will not lead into it at all. but melissa, late october, markets fell 10% from near-term highs. this is the second-fastest time the market has jumped 10%. and it did it in 16 days. the first fastest time was done in 1998 in six days. that tells you something. it's because the consensus was, for this next to happen. we're supposed to be in a recession, we're supposed to be falling off a cliff, that hasn't

happened, and that's the reason why, until you see people capitulate, that's the reason why the market will go higher. things in the middle east are horrific, but they're less horrific than people thought they would be at this stage. china, less horrific. there's a couple of things in this that are less bad, and i think less bad is just enough, with rates coming in, to have the market push higher. >> is there a piper to be paid when it comings to this hiking campaign? >> i mean, hundreds of years of research would say yes. i think, you know, tim makes a great point, which is, our view, stay long while that labor and services happen. the second it starts to weaken, you want to get out and get out quick. and you have to be cautious -- >> is there a magic number? >> magic number for -- >> payroll, unemployment rate, whatever it is. >> if you are negative payrolls, you need to get out of this market. the fed wants that to happen, so, i think, you get one or two negative prints, the market is going to look at the fed and the fed is going to be saying, we finally sort of acome

accomplished this, which is why you want to get out and be very careful about getting back in. >> so, when we see that, though, we have most of the market, we're all acknowledging here that already has sold off, that's in a bear market, that's down 20%, 30%, 50%, do they have more to price in? or would that be a time to just run to the fixed income market? or do you think the broader part of the market can do okay in that environment? it's already been pretty ugly outside of this concentrated market. >> i mean, i think you can sell off further, honestly. people try to site the '90s recession, you had millions of jobs lost. equal weighed s&p is not going to hold in in that scenario. that's why we'd be cautious. and xrt, that equally weighed retail, is where we would be. >> what is the fed doing? is the fed remaining restrictive at levels or is it pivoting? >> the fed will pivot.

our view is just they're probably going to pivot a little slouler than the market would like them to, because they've basically stated they want the labor market to soften. so, let's say in the past, they would have gone dovish after two negative prints, maybe this time it's three or four, and that window of time, i think, is when equities will be under the most pressure. >> steve, do you think the political cycle plays into any of this? >> yeah, well, first of all, when you talk about oil, you know, i think that we have to actually refill the spr, sol they have a vested interest in us having lower gasoline prices. they have a vested interest in lowering inflation, because people vote with their wallets, they vote with their pocketbook. so, if people don't feel in good shape, whether it's jobs, on the jobs front, or in the inflation front, they want change of leadership. so, i think i would be weary of things getting extremely negative in an election year. i think the market is probably

safe in the first couple of quarters. >> do we need to have yields, guy, remain where they are or go lower in order for us to have the santa claus rally, if you want to call it that? >> oh. >> yeah. i've been -- how long have we been doing this show? >> for a long time. >> if you hear me say that ever, that's time for me to -- probably time for me to pack my bags. so, look, clearly there's, you know, in the absence of bad news, there's this levitation that typically goes on. i get it. it makes a lot of sense. unemployment rate is going higher. the problem, of course, is, it's not going to go higher in a linear way. it's a surprise to people how quickly it does. and if the fed thinks somehow they can control unemployment the same wail they could control inflation, they're just wrong. and i think people will be, you know, i think it's going to happen 4.5% to 5% is going to be a quick jump, and the market eegsis not going to like this. bad news is going to be bad news, and lower rates will suggest that things are slowing at a pretty significant fashion

that stocks won't like, either. >> if everybody's on one side of the boat in terms of being max bullish on high growth and this changes, you know, like a light switch in terms of going higher very suddenly, we could really see some messiness out there. >> yeah, we could. and that's going to be a tricky combination there, right? our view on value growth, you buy what's scarce. if you are going into a recession, growth is still scarce, but it is also what's held. so, you are going to have a tradeoff of people wanting to be in growth stocks, because that's where they feel safest, versus, if they need to sell positioning, that's what they own. so, that just creates the potential for a lot of volatility. january 2024 is going to be fascinating. the last two years, we've seen very violent, turbulent januarys, and in this case, we have very naur roe leadership, so, if that happens, in this time, it's -- it's a little extra. >> and i think that leadership within that concentrated group is also starting to shuffle. you can't tell me apple is going to show leadership.

and i think it's going to be more sympathetic to what the consumer is doing. netflix continues to print money. they are raising prices. content levels are down. it is fascinating. there will be a january effect, sorry, guy, and i think you're going to have a dynamic here. there's no question, there is a chase into year end. and you have, as steve framed, as we've said, you have peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar, essentially peak fed, and i think people need to own this market. but these have been extraordinary times. we turn now to the developing story in niagara falls, where a car ran into a checkpoint at the canada/new york border. eamon javers has the latest. >> reporter: melissa, kathy hochul is speaking in new york at this moment, and she's just said that there is no indication of a terrorist attack in the this incident that took place on the rainbow bridge, just between the united states and canada. you can see her there addressing reporters.

she's said three out of the four bridges between the united states and canada that had been closed in the wake of this incident have now been reopened. what we know, as of this point, is that nbc news has obtained exclusive video of the incident itself, and if we play that video, you can see the very top of your screen, going to have to play it here a few times to see a white sedan is coming into the border area at a very high rate of speed and gets air born there, looks like it hits an obstruction and then you can see, it goes, you know, two, three times higher than the vehicles nearby it. that vehicle must have been moving at the point it hit that ballard. we don't know anything about the intent of the people in the car. we do know there are two dead here, and those are the occupants of the vehicle. nbc news is also reporting, according to four sources familiar, that investigators are looking into whether the driver of the vehicle in question here was in the vicinity of a nearby casino shortly before the car crash.

also saying investigators continue to investigate the scene and the previous route of that vehicle before the video that we're looking at right here, where you see that white sedan just taking off into the air, moments before it crashes into the border area, burst into flame, and then explodes. two dead in that vehicle today. governor of new york now say, melissa, no indication of a terrorist attack. back over to you. >> that is good news ahead of the holiday. eamon, thank you. coming up, nvidia's china problem. the chip makers earnings blowing away expectations, but a china warning having the investors lose faith. that's next. plus, deere caught in the headlights. shares dropping after headlines, but climbing back after lows of the session. how investors are mowing into the company's forecast, when "fast money" returns.

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the stockstock's etf ended the up. grasso, how are you feeling about the report and the pull-back here? >> yeah, so, i think the report, as you mentioned earlier, was good on every front. you said it wasn't a blockbuster. it was probably a home run, it wasn't a grand slam. we've been used to grand slams for nvidia, so, they set the bar pretty high for themselves. the one line was the china worry, so, i guess 20%, 25% of their business, but just imagine if there is a workaround, or a headline. we saw biden meet with xi, and that seemed to work out better than we had thought, so if things start to soften around the edges with china, the stock probably rips higher. the guidance is actually exponentially better than people thought it would be anyway, so, even in a worse world, nvidia still is probably the best place. >> still, the commentary specifically on china was v very -- i don't know, maybe it's

conservative, but the cfo saying that they do not have good visibility into the magnitude of the impact in terms of the export controls in the long-term, guy. it just seems like -- they can't possibly have a handle on it. but if that is the case, how can investors actually factor in what the china revenues will be? >> yeah, which i think, if you look, it's interesting you say that, because the knee-jerk reaction, when those comments came out, was to take the stock, and i saw this print last night, i think down -- all the way down to $475. there's clearly some concern around it. it was a remarkable quarter. we talked about the metrics last night, kristina started the show talking about all the wonderful things. their margins are off the chart. i mean, obviously, you know, the concern for me, at least, is, you know, price to revenue, if you look at it, is a staggering number, even given the fact that next year, you are looking at $88 billion or so. it's still a company that's going to trade close to 16 times revenue, which historically is

very expensive in that industry, so -- people will say they'll grow into it, that's fine. they are being rewarded for it in terms of valuation. and i think so a certain extent, that was some of the consternation around the stock today. >> and i think we had a similar conversation last night when i wasn't wearing the vest that guy's very jealous of, but i think -- >> everybody is, actually. >> look, it's -- you know, it's thanksgiving. let's not be showy. but i think back to nvidia, and i think about their eps dynamic. maybe on a price to sales. if they are going to do 20 bucks a share in '24 and close to 30 in '26, '27, there's half the analyst community, and you can say what you want about people that have chased this stock, 150, they thought the stock was worth 75, now they think it's worth 600. they are saying this stock is cheap. and based upon the margin profile, the company that is still 6 to 12 months ahead in terms of product line, i think they're going to hold these

margins. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. oh, deere. shares getting moved down, despite crushing certainings. why the new year may not bring good tidings for this company. plus, a make or break moment for oil. as opec delays a key meeting. the impact on the energy space, and what it could mean for your wallet. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.he - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

welcome back to "fast money." deere shares dropping after the industry company issued disappointing full-year 2024 guidance before the bell this morning. the results sending fellow industrial titan caterpillar

lower, as well. there are all sorts of concerns about what these companies do when sales fall. will they lease more as they have in the past, guy? and how will leasing impact their portfolio? >> it's interesting you say it. so, you know, they appear to be cheap on value washgs and that's typically a warning sign. tim can speak to that, but out of the three major business segments for next year, 2024, the guiding net sales in down 10% to 15%, construction, forestry, down 10%. so, that's a bit of a warning sign. and now, you're talking about probably dealer inventories growing, which is going to hurt margins. these things sort of cascade. i understand that deere is not the economy. i get it. look at the chart, it's had trouble. three times around the $440 level. it's going to find a home probably in the $325 to $340 range, but again, it's part of that overall narrative about

things slowing down. >> you agree with that? >> yeah, i mean, it's -- youydurable goods orders were low, as well. the manufacturing side of the econ economy. >> small ag and turf, by the way, that's me on my john deere lawn tractor. maybe not wearing this vest, because it's too nice for that, but i do -- the problem with the -- with deere's numbers today, everybody knew they guidance was going to be down. it was down 15% to where the street was, and there's margin dynamics, so, guy hit it, i mean, the -- the numbers to the multiple aren't terrible, on a trailing basis, this was 11 times. really attractive. as you bring down the earnings, and those are going to come down remarkably. this becomes 15 times, you know, on a forward, which is a total different story. >> valley trade or valley trap,

grasso? >> it's down 13% year to date. the only thing bullish that you see is that the farm bill, which is, i guess, voted on every five years, was extended through september 2024. the bulk of that is not going to a john deere, but there are subsidies in that, there are subsidies for farmers, so, maybe you see some of that as a tailwind. i think to your question, i think it's more of a value trap now. you have to see it perform before i would jump into a name that's been under pressure like that. >> all right, coming up, crude prices sliding this month. will the opec meeting that's been delayed to next week play a big role in where prices head next? gas buddy's patrick deh haan wil join us coming up. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. eck ed a moment of "fast?" chout the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks in the green heading into thanksgiving. the dow up nearly 200 points. the s&p and nasdaq jumping about 0.4%. on pace for their fourth positive week in a row. shares of tesla dropping 3%

today. the new york city comptroller asking the board to take action on elon musk. grasso, how big of an issue do you think this is for the stock? >> you know, he seems to always be made of teflon. i'd rather not pass judgment until you hear both parties in everything. i think in our world of instant social justice, everyone runs to make their own verdict immediately. obviously, it's rolling out. the stock has elon musk to worry about, not what tesla has to worry about s. i think it's about the person, not the stock. tesla is still the lead of the pack in the ev community. it is number one. and charging is going to be probably another $5 billion of

revenue potentially for them, because everyone has signed onto their standard, so -- there's a host of levers that he can still pull, but it's more of the man, not the company that's causing the headwind. >> so, is elon musk more of a positive or a negative for the stock, guy? and i guess, put it a different way, if he announced tomorrow that he was leaving the company, what would the stock do? >> that's a great question. you know, probably go lower, i think it's still key person risk in terms of the seat that he sits in, despite the fact that he can't seem to help himself in terms of some of the things that come out of his mouth or through the keyboard. but i'll push back a little and said, pension funds -- people that own these stocks in terms of these pension funds, large endowments, i think, we talked about this, are going to be under tremendous pressure to potentially have to get out of these shares. you are starting to see it around the edges. despite the fact that the stock rallied from 103 to 300 and everyone focuses on that, this stock has entirely

underperformed the nasdaq since november, december of 2021, down probably close to 40% or so, and the nasdaq, by the way, today, which made a 52-week high, so, there's clearly something going on with tesla, the stock. >> all right. oil prices tumbling as much as 5% earlier in the day, after opec and its allies delayed its next meeting by four days to next thursday, november 30th. oil recouping a lot of the losses, but still down for the day. they're now on track for its fifth weekly loss in a row. it will be oil's longest losing streak since december 2021, and one energy expert suggests the market is at a near-term make or break moment. patrick de haan from gas buddy is with us. there have been reports they are delaying this meeting because not only are they going to be discussing deeper cuts, but also discussing actually enforcing the prior cuts. opec always has a bad rap saying, they're going to cut,

and no enforcement of those cuts. is this why this really could be the make or break moment for oil? >> well, there's a lot of pressure right now. the saudis are wrangling all the opec members up and trying to get them on the page of cutting production. that is certainly something we've seen the saudis hinting at the market every turn of the last six to eight months. they've hinted they want prices higher, and a five-week slide in the price of oil, it's clear that not everyone at opec is thinking the same way. african nations are certainly lashing out against the push-back that they're feeling from the saudis, the saudis' desire for everyone to cut. the impact to the pump has been notable, as gas prices now decline to $3.25 a gallon, the lowest since 2020. americans benefiting for the lower oil prices just in time for thanksgiving. the make or break moment is, how much lower is oil going to go, if opec doesn't act at their

meeting next week? >> thank you for joining us. saudi arabia, essentially, and opec actions, tend to be very forward-looking in term office their outcome and they've had a lot of success in the last, i would argue, three years, in having the impact that they need. and if saudi is willing to go this route, and i think they are -- i guess i get back to the supply dynamic, because everyone focuses on demand. and to me, it's all about supply. which means opec controls it. i don't see a lot of new supply. talk about that. >> yeah, well, i mean, there is new supply. look at the biden administration and how they try to make friends with venezuela, who is promising democratic elections, so, there is more at stake to the game here, in that if opec continues to cut market share, it's going to continue to give countries like venezuela potential already more output. how long is opec going to allow countries like the u.s. now, we're at 13.2 million barrels a day, how long are they going to keep the door open for other competitors to take their market

share? there's a lot of pressures here, and we're seeing some of the african producers that are also upset that they don't get production out of the quotas, but i mean, to your point, compliance has always been very difficult. just as we're now finding diplomacy, getting everyone on the same page is difficult, as well. >> your forecast 6 to 12 months on oil is $65 to $95, which seems like a wide range, patrick, and i'm wonder what the scenarios are for $65 versus $95. seems like $95, you can imagine, we were there before, $65, we haven't seen before. is that a severe economic slowdown that has to be factored in? what drives it to $65? >> severe economic slowdown coupled with the fact that the chinese economy still isn't in drive, so to speak. so, the chinese have been filling up inventories, so, i think there are some weaknesses, i mean, citi bank called out some technical weaknesses here to oil, and look at russia, still quotas and compliance being an issue. i could see that being a problem that gets away from opec here,

if they fail to bring in compliance, so -- all in all, there is a wide range, certainly geopolitical issues could continue. the russian war in ukraine is fizzling out, risk is reducing there, all in all, americans' primary beneficiaries of the lower prices, but keep in mind, even gasoline demand has struggled, against prices that are dropping to $3.25 a gallon. gas buddy saw demand at just 8.5 million barrels a day. that's pretty weak going into thanksgiving. >> all right, patrick, thank you for your analysis. patrick de haan of gas buddy. it's interesting in the latest fomc minutes, they are talking about the consumer having more fire power than had been anticipating, saying they have more money than they originally thought, but maybe not seeing the decline in oil prices. >> it definitely helps the consumer out. if you are the saudis right now and you have oil at its lows, or close to it, u.s. producing over 13 million barrels per day, you have had two wars going on, oil

prices can't get higher, you have to imagine that's creating a little friction within opec. it's positive for the u.s. consumer and makes this opec meeting pretty important. weowning upside going into this meeting. and if you look at the balance of risk, it looks like they may have to do something here. >> it's fascinating they moved this meeting. it's fascinating to me, because this thanksgiving meeting at opec has had fireworks around us. they have done significant stuff while seemingly some of the biggest consumers were digesting, and so, look. i actual ly think there's a ris for a surprise cut. the market has zero expectation of that. i think back to the energy equities, it's not been a great run. we get back to companies that i think have different dynamics, we've seen the m&a activity in the megacap space. i think some of that will continue. i don't think you have to go too far to build a nice little

basket that could be a chevron, energy transfer, all names i'm long, and names that i think are really high quality, regardless of where the oil price is. >> the two os in mojo, guy. >> interchangeable. >> oh. >> well -- not the mentalist os, who, by the way, has been all over the place. i think he was on jim's show. look, i'll say this. exxon made that acquisition for a reason, or trying to. chevron, the same thing. warren buffett owning 25% of oxy for a reason. you listen to paul sankey, there's tremendous upside. i'm surprised we're here, clearly, but i'm with tim on this one. i think there's going to be a very much surprise cut out of opec. i think they're going to be sort ofvanized in their want to get prices higher. >> the os, in case people don't know, in guy's mojo are oih and

oxy. >> i thought we were talking about -- >> no. coming up, the restaurant etf is on a tear this month. we'll have more on what that move says about the names in the space. and gobble gobble. it is almost thanksgiving, so, we're asking the traders for the stock they're feasting on, and the one that has been a real turkey. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got a nice appetizer before tomorrow's big thanksgiving feast. maybe amuse bouche type of thing. >> nice. >> the restaurant etf up more than 12% in november. today's move thanks in part to chipotle shares hitting a record high. the stock at its highest level since its ipo in 2006, up nearly 60% this year. it has been, shall i say -- >> you can say it. >> burrito blowout for this stock. >> got to ask guy, obviously, what he thinks. >> guy? >> well, as you know, melissa, historically, the wednesday before thanksgiving has been a huge night for cmg, and it's

obviously showing itself today making an all-time high, and again, people will criticize it on valuation, and i get it, it is expensive. right now, rsis are probably at levels that we haven't seen in awhile in terms of overbought, but this has stock as a way of working both those off, and i think, you know, you shorted your own peril. i'll say this. i think we're probably within a few months of them coming out and, i know the math, but you know, some sort of split that will get everybody excited this is one of those stocks that brian kelly used to say, put in your desk and forget about it, cmg is one. with that, it's hard to forget about the aftermath for me, after i have that burrito, but that's probably for another show. >> top drawer, brian kelly was talking about. put it in your top drawer and forget about it. coming up, a thanksgiving roundup. we're going around the trader dinner table to pick the names we are most thankful for this season. you might be in for a few surprises. atex nt.

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going to go into the oven shortly, but before we get to the feast, we wanted to ask our traders for the one name or sector they are thankful for on this holiday. so, tim, o vested one, start us off. >> i'm thankful for higher yields. i'm thankful for fixed income. for asset allocation -- yeah, that's a great sound effect. and it is ultimately not having to be pushed into higher risk stuff. there are real yields again. and there's an opportunity to invest, whether it's corporates, munis, converts, there's a whole slew of opportunities, and i think for investors who have to lived on fixed income, they are thankful for this, too, because it's been financial depression for a long time. >> steve grasso what are you thankful for? >> grayscale ethereum truth. it is up 255% year to date. obviously, you know the story behind this. they are waiting on approval to become an etf, along with a whole list of others that want that etf status, as well.

i think this goes much higher, but this has been a very good for me, i'm thankful for ethereum grayscale trust. >> stuart, what are you grateful for? >> if you are a u.s. equity investor, it has to be large cap tech. it's driven 80% of the turns to date. it's driven upside surprises. and, you know, if you are being thankful for anything, it's nasdaq up 40% year to date and those companies being able to drive earnings growth well above what anybody would have expected. >> and guy? >> i'm thankful that i'm the last person that has to hear that stupid bird chirp, but -- >> yeah, i was waiting for that. >> but i'm also thankful for eli lilly. it was a $100 stock, nobody's talking about it. we haven't really moved that far off it, and as we're sitting here today, it's within a whisper of an all-time high. >> all right, so, now that we know your favorites, what are you liking the least this holiday? what is your big turkey -- guy,

what is your big turkey? >> can't wait to hear this sound. target has gotten off the mat clearly off that last quarter, but i think this bounce is going to be somewhat short-lived. can you do that again? i actually sort of like that. >> we can do that again. >> i want to know who came up with that sound effect. somebody did. >> is it a real bird or is that a person imitating a bird? >> that's a human turkey sound. i think. >> anyway, guy, lilly -- >> lilly's the bird chirp, target's the gobble gobble to the downside. i think the bounce of target is going to be short-lived. >> stuart, what is your turkey? >> i think it has to be u.s. banks. u.s. bank stocks, the maturity losses, rising deposit costs, huge capital needs, quiet deal calendar, and the only real crisis we've had all year. i think the banking sector is the biggest disappointment. especially with yields rising and the yield curve steepening and they haven't been able to capture it. >> tim? >> dollar gen is my turkey.

down 43% on the year, but that's not the reason, it's a turkey. they've revised earnings down three times already in the third quarter. they brought back their own ceo after bringing in a new ceo. disinflation could be leading to deflation, and i think they may have more negative trends ahead. >> guy, at one point in time, dollar gen and the dollar stores you would have been thankful for -- >> 100 -- 100. and when people were trading down to the dollar stores, it made a lot of sense, now people are trading down from the dollar stores, which is, again, reason for concern going forward. >> yeah. and steve, your turkey? >> it's rivian. rivian is definitely the second-best ev company out there, but their cash burn continues to disappoint. they -- just -- a little bit ane anecdotally, when you order a preorder of rivian, they charge you $1,000 for a preorder. nobody's going to slap it down.

when you go to tesla, they charge you $100 to preorder the cyber truck. they -- the management team seems to be absent, and that is my turkey for the year, rivian. >> by the way, we have some developing story here. that turkey sound effect is dan, a member of our "fast money" team, very talented. >> so talented. >> very good at video and very good with sound effects, particularly birds. >> maybe next year we get him live doing that, to watch him -- >> on demand? we'll consider it. up next, final trades.

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final trade time. steve grasso? >> tapestry. the stock fell off a clip after announcing the capri deal, but it seems to be bottoming out right now. up 9% right now. trades up 20 pkd n% near term? >> guy? >> always thankful for you, mel, and our "fast money" viewers. oxy. >> ditto. stuart? >> we like tlt to the upside.

>> timothy? >> happy thanksgiving, everyone. happy thanksgiving, mel. energy transfer. happy for that one, too. yield, portfolio of assets. >> nice vest. >> thank you for watching "fast money." happy thanksgiving, everybody, out there, enjoy your loved ones, be safe. stay where be safe. stay where you are. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to help you make some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom. or tweet me @jimcramer. there is a gaping hole in the american education system, although i hesitat