♪ welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro. these are your headlines. the economy contracts in the third quarter and the eurozone looks for the hold. and barclays is cutting up to 2,000 jobs as the bank tries

to boost the book value ahead of the strategy revamp in february. and nissan announces more than 1 billion pound investment in the uk operations and a plan for a third factory to boost prod production. we see what's next for the automaker. >> we want to implement this plan. we will continue to do so and we will have a collaboration with the government in how we can make the competitiveness in the country. and the four-day pause with israel and hamas comes into force with the relief of hostages and prisonsers to be released from both sides as aid flows into gaza.

welcome to the show. happy friday. i want to break some news where we are just getting fresh data from germany. this is the ifo climate numbers. in terms of expectations, they he were expected to come in at 87.5. the final number is 87.3. marginally below expectations. slightly higher he than the numbers we had seen coming in the month of october. overall, we are actually seeing a little bit of an improvement when it comes to how businesses in germany are feeling about the state of the economy. if you look at the screen at this stage, we are comparing euro against the dollar. we are seeing the euro moving slightly higher against the u.s. dollar. let's review the numbers with

the german expert annette weisbach. some numbers are suggesting a slight improvement in how businesses are feeling about the german economy. amid this uncertainty with the budget for next year, the postponement of the debt break, how do you interpret these numbers? >> well, the decision of the budget is no longer wider has been effected in the numbers. essentially, the ifo index is capturing the mood of german companies when it comes to the expectations. export expectations are important here as well. we are seeing a slight improvement. that might not be down to the german economy, but the world

economy. german companies tend to export a lot of projects. it is a slight improvement, but less than expected. a lot of the outlook now depends on whether the political issues in berlin is getting that investment fixed. there are loads of uncertainty if you listen to the german association of the industry. they are concerned about the outlook for the industries. hydrogen industry was raising eyebrows saying the transition may be delayed in case germany is not willing to spend the money promised to do so. it is a little relief, but we cannot declare victory on the economic front in germany because the country is in recession and there are many,

many problems to the outlook for the economy. be it infrastructure or energy crisis. also, the sie spending power of consumer with the high inflation numbers for the last one and a half years is clearly in danger. it is a very difficult mix for the german economy. >> absolutely. these numbers are actually very much in line with the pmi we saw earlier in the week. let's discuss in more detail how businesses are feeling about the german economy. we have with us clements fuss, the president of the ifo. clements, the first question is we are seeing the slight improvement between october and november, but comparing these two months, what has driven this slight improvement? >> i would say several factors.

easing energy prices and the fact that the conflict in israel has stabilized a little. the impact on energy prices will remain limited. then the idea that maybe interest rates have peaked. financial markets are expecting declining interest rates next year and that stabilizes the economy. wages are rising quickly in germany and that will raise disposable incomes for consumers. that is positive news. >> i want to ask about the chemical industry. they have been heavily impacted by the rise of energy prices. they expressed disappointment with the state of the economy. as we stand right now, do you have any sort of information about how this specific part of the german economy is feeling and what they are thinking as we

approach 2024? >> yes, in the data, the energy intensive industries, metals and paper and glass and ceramics have improved readings. chemicals is an exceptional. it hasn't worsened, but improved. that remains critical. even at current energy price levels, their competitiveness is in question regarding the very energy intensive parts of the production. it continues to be a difficult situation. >> clemens, it is annette in fran

frankfurt. germany has many problems right now. how concerned are you for the outlook on the economy given the current industry is in dire straits? >> that is a question mark over the development of the economy. i would say mostly in the medium term. in the short-term, we see strong fluctuations. the auto industry is investing. it is investing a lot into the transformation of plants, but there is a significant uncertainty with increasing pressure by car producers from china. there is a lot of uncertainty and i think the german economy does need to prepare for structure change and future with a lower or smaller role or lower role in the auto industry. there's no way around that. >> let me bring on a highly discussed topic. the budget of 2024 and the ruling by the consconstitutiona

court. how much harm could there be for the german economy with less investment from the state? >> i think a lot depends on how this is managed. in 2024, there is a budget hole. it is not clear, but it is something like 35 billion. it will be very difficult for the government to fill that gap without declaring another emergency. at the same time, declaring another emergency for 2024 is unconstitutional. that is the dilemma. there are options. one option is to incur debt through public companies and there is the possibility of postponing the subsidies. some subsidies are not useful. the plant which is disputed. what is probably dampening the

economy is also the significant uncertainty now. a lot of private investors will probably wait and see how this all plays out. there is a risk and at the same time the government has reactions and options to react. it is a challenge. >> i want to ask you more specifically about the debt break. given what we watched in the last 24 hours in terms of the delaying the debt break for another year and given that has now been the news the last two or three years, is this the moment where germany needs to stop the policy and put an end to it? >> well, i think we shouldn't forget and that is found on fiscal rules and those fiscal rules reduce the borrowing costs of governments.

they play a financial role on markets. it would not be smart to throw away the debt break. i think the most likely scenario and reasonable approach would be to try and do another shadow budget like in the case of the armed forces where the government sat down with the opposition with the conservative party and decided to allow for more debt through an amendment of the constitution. doing this now with regard to the investment needs and infrastructure for the energy transition would be the best choice mainly because this gives bipartisan support and broad political support for policies where investors need to rely on a scenario where the next government could change policies. if it has a broad base, there is more certainty for investors. i think there is no majority for reforming or changing or ab

abolishing the debt break. it wouldn't be wise. there is little to win from abolishing the debt break. it is necessary to create room for financing for investment. that could be done with an amendment to the constitution. >> we will see how the german government will continue to play out this story. thank you so much for your time. that was clemens fuest, president of the ifo institute. in other german news, the german economy will once again suspend the consequtitutional c break. leaving it with a 60 billion hole to plug. the budget, which will be supplemental, will declare any

emergency situation. annette, this is an important development. thank you for staying with us. how do we get to this stage? >> actually, the problem was that the current government was using funds that were indicated for the corona health, for example, and moved it for a different purpose which was climate change. that is literally illegal. these funds are dedicated for a purpose and what the government did was clearly against the law and that is now also mirrored in the constitution court hearing. i think it was like many governments did it in a way, but not at that sheer size.

the size of the expense which goes outside the budget has increased tremendously. for this year, it is 36% of all spending which is why the balance sheet is off balance and that cannot be okayed with the debt brake industry in the constitution. it is like clemens was pointing out which there needs to be funds for the government available to finance all of the transformations which we need in the economy, but at the same time, there are clear restrictions. for now, the finance minister of ger germany, is trying to clear the mess for 2023 and that is what he has said yesterday. >> translator: in agreement with

the chancellor, i will in the coming week, present a sl supplementary budget. i see it as my job to make a clean sweep. only then can we start talking about 2024 and the subsequent years if we have a water-tight constitutional state of affairs. >> first, he needs to get the 2023 budget legalized, so to say, and then think about what will happen to the 2024 budget. of course, there needs to be a solution and a compromise with all three ruling parties. i think that is very, very tricky and very difficult. we are heading into uncertain weeks. >> we will see the ramifications for the coalition government. annette, thank you for joining

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welcome back, everybody. i want to show you how markets are trading at this stage. starting with the u.s. futures, keep in mind that yesterday, the u.s. equity markets were closed for thanksgiving. we have some positive numbers coming through, but today they he ar are open for half a trading day. they see less volumes compared to full trading days. it also impacts the global markets as well. back in europe, the equity mar markets have been trading. the stoxx 600 is marginally lower at this stage. yesterday, the stoxx 600 actually closed close to a two

and a half month high. when it comes to the stoxx 600, keep a lot in mind with the ecb policy and we got minutes yesterday. a lot of focus on the netherlands amid the election results which surprised many out there as well. let's look at the geographical spread. the ftse 100 is trading lower .40%. in france, the move is just slightly below the flat line. very flat moves at this stage across the major indices in europe. i want to show you the picture throughout the week. today being friday, we're trying to analyze what has been the picture for equity markets throughout the week. at this stage, let's look at the ftse 100. it is on track to finish the week down .70%. this is despite the comments

from the chancellor this week with the announcement of the tax cuts. we saw in the upcoming general election for the chancellor as well. at this stage, at the top of the board, we have chemicals trading higher by .30%. on the opposite end, basic resources is trading lower. looking like the worst performance trading lower .70%. looking at abu dhabi oil is looking at acquisition of the basf wintershall sector. it could value wintershall at more than 10 billion euro. it holds a 76% stake in the

com company. this is how the stock is currently trading. when it comes to banks, we are monitoring barclays. it is working on a $1.25 billion cost saving plan which could include 2,000 job cuts. that is according to reuters which says managers are r reviewing plans to increase profitability by making cuts and improving efficiency. the stock is trading slightly higher. in other corporate news, forearmed is warned about the weak economic outlook for 2024 will test the bank asset volumes. i want to discuss this a little bit in detail with our next

guest. he is the chief analytical officer at s & p. as we look at 2024, what is the outlook for global banks? >> good morning, silvia. we have 880% of the bank ratings on the stable outlook. that is despite the monetary policy tightening in the face of stubborn inflation and despite the economic slowdown in front of us and the geopolitical incidents around us. one of the reasons for the stable outlook is this is a long-waited downturn we have in front of us and that's why we chose the title. forewarned for forearmed. we see examples of the slowdown

in the economy with the provisioning of the banks. we have seeing excess provisions from the covid years. although covid did not turn out as bad as expected in terms of equity. there is a buffer here. regulators have been aiming for the past decade to prepare banks for the stress that could be much worse than the ones that many are expecting. another reason is profitability. higher rates means higher provisioning income for banks. that has boosted their ability to absorb the increase in the cost risk. the question is or the billion dollar question is how much provisions will we get for banks? >> let's look at the numbers in the report. you are saying as october 31st,

79% of banks are stable. what i would like to understand is what regions could surprise on the downside? >> sure. the average is always high in some regions. we see sectors and regions under more pressure. there are questions around the cre and the impact of asset quality. from this point of view, in the u.s., we see more divergence. in china as well, people are waiting to see what will happen with the property markets. we expect that we will see the numbers soon, but the correction is expected next year. what does that mean for the lenders? these are two regions where we are watching and expecting a

divergence in the creditworthiness of the regions. even when the monetary policy tightens, we see the health impact for institutions. >> we see debate whether we reached peak at this stage. i wonder where you stand on this debate. >> we think that's certainly the european banks profitability. profitability has reached a cyclical high. next year will be tougher with the funding and the credit costs should increase a bit. we still expect that next year will be another decent year and a lot of support from the monetary policy in terms of the probability of the european banks. we see many banks are working on the cost base because we know what goes up comes down at some

point. this cyclical boost will come to an end at some point. >> thank you, alexander. we have to leave it there. that was alexander, the chief analytical officer at s&p global ratings. coming up on the show, four-day humanitarian pause begins between israel and hamas. we'll discuss more with our next guest who is senior adviser to benjamin netanyahu. stay tuned for that. it's hard to run a business on your own. with shopify, you have everything you need to setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. because when we work together, the future is bright. these days, your customers are not just down the hall. they're all over the world. so cute. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms.

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welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro. these are your headlines. german sentiment picks up in october while berlin deals with a debt black hole. >> there is no majority for reforming or changing or even abolishes the debt brake. it is necessary to create room for financing for important

investment. i think that could be done with another amendment to the constitution. barclays reportedly embarks on a 1 billion pound cost cutting plan with up to 2,000 jobs to be believed at risk as the bank tries to boost its book value ahead of the revamp in february. nissan announces a 1 billion pound investment in the uk operation and prepares for a third factory. the ceo tells cnbc what's next for the automaker. >> we want to make a plan for the ev which has been announced back in 2021. we will have a further collaboration with the government on how we can make the competitiveness be demonstrated in the country. and israel and hamas has a four-day truce.

the first pause in the seven-week war. we will hear from mark regev, the advisor to benjamin netanyahu next. you are looking at live pictures at this stage of the rafah crossing. the two sides agreed to a four-day humanitarian pause with hamas set to release the first group of hostages taken during the attack on october 7th. israel releasing a number of prisoners. additional aid will begin to follow into gaza. fighting continued in the hours leading up to the truce with the hospital in gaza city among the targets. sky news filed this report.

>> reporter: the cease-fire came into effect at 7:00 this morning. for the most part, it has held, although we are in the early hours. there was a rocket at quarter past 7:00, but beyond that, the peace has held. we look on to later this afternoon, 4:00 in israel, when the first hostages are expected to be released. we believe 13 women and children to make it to egypt first and then passage to the israeli border where the international red cross will hand them over to the israeli military. this is also a chance to search humanitarian aid into gasza whih is desperately needed. we believe 200 trucks will enter gaza to bring food and other items, including food, for

hospitals and water pumping stations. for now, the signs are good. i have to say people in israel and in gaza are holding their breath. >> now, mark regev, the advisor to benjamin netanyahu, joins us now. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. >> i would like to understand this morning over this truce and if it is going to work. what scorort of guarantees can give? >> we have a good record on these things. basically, the deal is, when we have those 13 hostages released and on israeli soil this evening, we willf fulfill our part of the deal and start to release palestinian prisoners in

israeli jails who have been sentenced for violence. whether it is stabbings or shootings or whatever. it is based on they release and we will follow. it is not a matter of trusting. it is them following through on what they committed to do. >> are you able to give us enough data at this stage given this has started? >> it has begun. it is a humanitarian force to get the hostages out according to the formula reached. i would like to thank the united states of america, especially president biden, who played a crucial role in getting these arrangements in place. over the next four days, there will be a humanitarian truce. during that time, hamas committed to releasing 50 hostages and they have an option, which we have given

them, if they want the truce to continue, they must released ten hostages for every additional day of truce. we want to see our people relea released. it is a high priority for us. we are talking about a limited truce to get hostages out. we are not willing to live next to hamas. our overall goal is hamas must be eliminated. when this is over, they can no longer run the gaza strip. that is something israelis refuse to live with kany more. israelis should not live in fear. what has hamas brought the people? bloodshed and terror.

>> assuming the truce is successful, should we expect further exchanges of hostages down the line? how do you see the picture after this four-day truce? >> once again, the truce will continue. the pause in the fighting will continue as long as hostages continue. the moment that is stopped, we will continue the campaign against hamas. we have not given up the goal of the gaza strip. you have to understand the israeli perspective here. they say given the opportunity, they would repeat the october 7th massacre again and again and again. in other words, more butchering of israelis and more killing and taking of hostages. more violence, machine gunning people, burning people alive,

rape, murder. no! we refuse to have a neighbor committed to those war crimes and crimes against humanity. the hope must be the elimination of control over the gaza strip. >> are there any conversations to change the israeli side to make sure in this fight and in this war certain hospitals are spared from the fighting? >> so we don't want to see hospitals involved in the fighting. on the contrary. it is against the way we do business and the way we fight. we prefer humanitarian sides like mosques and schools not involved in the conflict. you are dealing with a brutal and vicious energy that implanted itself in hospitals and schools using the civilians as a human shield for its war

machine. this is not just israel's assertion. this has been said by the united states, britain and european union and it is widely condemned. hamas hamas embeds itself. hamas, in a perverted way, inverts that. hamas says the job of the civilians is to proptect their terror machine. it's a war crime. >> let's look at how we got to this point. you mentioned the help from the united states. we know qatar was making sure the truce was taking place. why did this not happen earlier? >> i think the truth is hamas was under massive military pressure from the israeli defense forces. we have destroyed the infrastructure which it spent

years building. we have been eliminating its senior commanders. hamas is desperate for a time-out in the fighting because they're on the receiving end of our blows. we said we will only agree to this pause if they release hostages. i think because they were feeling the pain and feeling the pressure, they agreed. our military campaign is expedited. we hope the proof in the pudding will be this evening. >> mark regev, thank you for your time this morning. mark regev, advisor to benjamin netanyahu. for more on the four-day pause of fighting, follow our live blog on cnbc.com. let's look at the market action so far this friday. starting with the european

indiv index. ftse 100 is down .30%. the other indexes in europe are in the green. we are seeing bigger moves in spain which is higher by .30%. the ftse mib in italy is higher by .60%. looking at the asia session, we see interesting moves in the sense with less volume from the united states and that has impacted global markets, including in asia. i want to look at the knenikkei5 specifically. it is up .5%. japan saw an uptick in core inflation in october with prices rising 2.9% on the year. just shy of expectations.

the price dprgrowth increase me it could pull back from the ultra policy. it is 19 months above target inflation. when it comes to the corporate world, nissan is investing $1.12 billion in uk to build two new ev models. it will need a further 2 billion pound investment in the third battery plant. the investment is boosted by 15 million pounds in financial backing by the british government with rishi sunak expected to visit this site today. the nissan president spoke to cnbc earlier today and he sounded optimistic about the future of the carmaker's uk relationship. >> it is one of our important

plants. we have a lot of great talent here. we want to make the plant as the ev 360 which was announced in 2021. we will will have a further collaboration with the government to make the competitiveness be demonstrated in the country. we are here to make such announcement. i'm very happy about it. >> we have political turmoil in the united kingdom, sir, as well. how is nissan insulating itself regarding the potential change of government? are you speaking to the opposition as well about co cohesion going forward about the planning? >> for us, as long as we can deliver for the country is first for nissan. we know we have an electric pace and that has been fragmented today. i go back to the value that we

will like to deliver to the customer. >> there is a conversation taking place in back channels and perhaps some hopes tariffs around electric vehicles can be avoided. that is not settled with the uk and eu. does that concern you? >> we have been on the ev since 2011 that we have to move forward with production. we want to deliver to the customer cleaner and safer and value that nissan can provide to the customer. that is what we are going to demonstrate. i know what is happening in the world today. a lot of competition is everywhere and deliveries of evs to the customer. the importance is the value to the customer which makes more cleaner and carbon neutral fixes. >> that was the nissan ceo.

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cnbc's tanya brayer has been speaking to grammy and tony award winner billy porter. tanya asked him if he is happy to see the actor strike come to an end. >> there is a misconception with lay people who realize we are blue collar freelance workers. that is what being an artist is. while success and the success i've had can bring in great financial success, that's not always the case. it was hard.

i'm excited to get back to the stuff that i was doing or which was planned before and combine it with the music and touring. >> of course, a.i. was one of the key issues that was being debated within the strikes. are you worried about how a.i. could affect the work you do? >> a.i. is a problem. so the concern is about compensation. how are you using my likeness and my voice and how will i be compensated for it? let's talk about that right now. not in three years or six years when you have all of my stuff locked in and you can do whatever you want with it. let's do that before -- get my permissions. >> you catch the full interview

on cnbc.com. and americans celebrated the thanksgiving holiday yesterday with parades held across the country, including the very famous macy's event in new york. today's black friday sales kickoff a key holiday period with 60% of shoppers planning to shop today and monday. the national retail federation expects sales to rise 3% year on year as growth slows to pre-pandemic levels. retail executives sounded a cautions note around the latest earnings season with forecasts from a slew of top retailers lagging behind expectations. it is an interesting time for retail. let's dive inwith our next guest. he is richard chamberlain. head of consumer and retail research at rbc capital markets.

good morning, richard. good to see you. firstly, given we are dealing with the cost of living crisis, what should we expect for this black friday? >> black friday is obviously a key event for retailers. particularly for online retailers and electricals and consumer tech and furniture. i think we will see a pretty strong trend over the period. i think a lot of consumers have been waiting for deals. people shop heavily in the late summer sales and gone back into their shell and they will come back out and shop heavily for deals. some retailers have started earlier this year and that helps the logistics and deliveries. we are seeing shoppers do more christmas shopping now and smooth out purchases over a

number of pay packets to mitigate the cost of living crisis you are talking about. >> i also would like to get your thoughts on the company specific expectation. essentially, which retailers do you think are better positioned to profit to do well and not just in the black friday period, but as we approach the very important christmas sales as well? >> i think the obvious place to start would be with the value retailers. companies like primark and vm is key. they will be focused on managing budgets and trying to get value for money. they are well placed in the current consumer environment. i think a company like zara will do well. it is operating on strong value.

it has a very fully integrated service model as well. i think they will have a good time of it as well into next year. i think value retailers and companies offering strong value for the money is the key. >> this has been an issue in the past and what is the state of play at this stage? is this a problem amid this important retail season? >> not particularly. i think supply chains have now pretty much normalized. if you look at the major sector of retail, it is a pbuyer's market. the global buy is soft. the retailers are benefitting from the fx headwind because of the lag effect of weaker dollar. they are seeing lower raw

material costs and lower freight costs as well. the buying environment is supportive. obviously, we have to wait and see how much discounting there is over the holiday period. inventories have been tight as well. it is actually looking promising from the margin spectrum for the next three-to-six months. >> i would like to understand as we look at this very important shopping season and the ecoquesn among consumers, is it worth it? from the data you gathered and i know it is early with black friday. are we expecting significant deals for consumers? >> yes. there are plenty of deals out there. you have to go on a number of web sites. electrical, furniture, clothing web sites to see that.

the risk is people spend on things they don't really need. you know, that's the major risk and retailers are left with a lot of returns. the other risk from the retail point of view is in the past, they struggled to get back to full price in december. the market feels relatively rational at the moment. christmas is a less disc discretionary time. i think it will be a robust season this year. from the consumer point of view, the risk is splurging on the things you don't need. that is the risk, my household included. >> let's see how black friday sales pan out. good luck with the purchases. that is richard chamberlain. global head of consumer and retail research at rbc capital markets. that closes the week here, but coming up is said to be o

another big week for markets. we have the corporate world with the latest travel name to report on tuesday before attention returns on thursday with the rescheduled opec plus meeting coinciding with the first day of cop-28. thursday is the inflation data and italy reports growth figures to end the week. i want to look at the u.s. futures before we go. equity markets are set to restart trading activity after being closed on thursday. that is it for the show. i'm silvia amaro. "worldwide exchange" is up next. shopify helps you sell at every stage of your business. like that ready to launch stage. that open for business stage. that sell it everywhere until you sell out stage. that count it up, ship it out

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." the wall street back open for business after the thanksgiving break looking to cap off a mostly positive week for stocks overall. it is also retail's very big day. black friday 2023 expected to be the busiest in-store traffic day of the year. a new key point casting a cloud. and not just strip malls